May 13, 2025 • 56 mins
This week marks the 7th anniversary of the repeal of PASPA, ushering in the widescale legalization of American sports betting we enjoy today. This week on the show, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into a subject we’ve talked a lot about on this show the last couple years, especially this past NFL season: the decline of the underdog for bettors across multiple sports. Since the repeal of PASPA, and especially in the NFL, historically profitable underdog situations have become quite hte opposite. To help us dive into the numbers behind this trend, Evan Abrams, statistical maven and Action Network Director of Research & Media, joins the show. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always buy my co host, my
companion Mike and Padre might BFF professional better sign man
Hunter Ato.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So am in shat.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
What a magical week the release of the schedule. It's
one of my favorite weeks of the year for a
football fan.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Simon, I know that over the weekend. Yeah, you had
planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at
eleven PM.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
On Mother's Day.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
On Mother's Day, which is fine, Like you know, your
mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done
your duty as a son throughout the day to honor
your mother. Did you play in the poker tournament? How
did it go?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Did so?
Speaker 3 (00:56):
It was the final table, That's why it was at
such a weird late hour, and there was ten of us.
I unfortunately took eighth, but going in, I was a
short stack, and I basically I'm a weird person with
numbers chat as you know, and seven four suited is
my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth
blind in, so I was maybe two guys already been
(01:18):
knocked out. And then I was at this point the
small blind, so I'm already invested and get the seven
fourth suited, had to shove guy pocket tens and basically
got very lucky.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
On the right.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I basically flopped trips and this guy rivers the ten.
So it's fun, it's gambling, yeah, but.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It was just a classic b too.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Where as soon as I saw his hand and I
got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this
is a dead hand. I'm gonna lose this. There's no
way it never you never want to flop it. But yeah,
it's it's something I love doing the off season and
we'll see World Chairs of Poker. I'm getting the itch,
I got ten k to burn. I might end up
down in Vegas. I'm playing in that tournament.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
We'll say.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So when you saw the river, like, what went like.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I already grabbed my bag, chat, I was already gone, yeah,
thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked
everybody and grabbed my bag and yeah, so it was
already walking off and it's just especially at that time.
So I think at this point, it might have been
just getting to midnight or just before, and I was
like all right, perfect, I'll get home just in time
(02:26):
to get some rest and hop on the pod.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
I mean you were yeah, you were barely there. You
were there for less than an hour.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Then exactly exactly.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
I spent more time in the sports book, hanging out
watching the games, and I did actually playing on the tournament.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
I will look speaking of sportsbook, we know that, and
we got a big show that we're going to get to,
but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off
early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early
this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup.
We have the Dallas Cowboys seven point underdogs on the
(03:02):
road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The money
line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys. This
is germane to the show because the show is going
to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some
of the trends that have been changing. And it speaks
to a lot of the work that we've talked about
(03:23):
a couple times on the show throughout the year, but
a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how
you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's going to
be on to break it down for us, but before
we dig more deeply into that intro, immediately plus seven
I bet that. I bet the plus two forty. I
(03:43):
know you did too.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Yeah, that's that's just an insane opening number. But it's
the respect that Philadelphia.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Deserves and just the season that Dallas is coming off of, right,
So it's all public perception. We talk all the time
about week one lines and Dak being disrespectful divisional game
like he is in this spot. That that's a nice number,
especially where you think about the fact that you know,
Kellen Moore did leave, like the Eagles are going to
learn a new offense, so this is week one and
Jalen hurts in a new offense. So pretty interesting that
(04:13):
the fact that they hung this number the way they did,
and you know, I'm looking at from the standpoint of
what you are, it's it's a big number.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Rebenting it really early. It is May.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
But me and chat are taking a position because you
expect this to what go to five and a half, four.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And a half, maybe perhaps by the.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Night they kick off, So we want to take a
position here and if it goes the other way, even better,
like I love if we get to that night chat
and we get an eight eight and a half on
this number because so many people are throwing their parlays
and teasers starting their week off with the Eagles at
this number. So yeah, it's just a really fun opening number.
Great opening night. I think it's the first time the
Egles have opened the season against the Cowboys at home
(04:53):
since two thousand, so we're talking about twenty five years here,
So pretty pretty excited as an Eagles fan that opening night.
I'll definitely be there Thursday night, no work for Simon.
I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and
watching this game.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is
it's such a a indicator of recency bias. Like obviously
everyone is all hyped on the Eagles, and everyone is
looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting
that Dak Prescott is going to be back, and that
it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback, and
(05:30):
it's not like this team won't be competitive, and it's
not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the
Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive
line at some point they were playing almost nobody, and
then Dak obviously was out for much of the year.
So this just feels like way too big of a number.
I know it's may I know we're not getting overextended
(05:52):
on the Cowboys as seven point underdogs on the road
in the division, but geez, geez, almighty, that is that
is a hefty, hefty price if you want to be
betting on the Eagles, or a really nice discount if
you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both.
You can't get it in the action app yet, but
I bet both the Cowboys plus seven and the Cowboys
(06:14):
on the money line at plus two forty. All right,
this all leads in perfectly to what we're going to
dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a
lot on this show the last couple of years when
we discuss every single week in this past NFL offseason,
the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL,
(06:39):
although across multiple sports, and this has been especially true
since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act
aka PASPA in two thousand and eighteen. It's also been
a real business story, and I've mentioned this a few
times on the show. The past six to nine months,
DraftKings Fandle, the two biggest operator, was the biggest percentage
(07:01):
of market share amongst all online sportsbooks, have reported in
Q four and in Q one now that their earnings
were less than expected. Their revenue was less than expected
because of continued customer friendly outcomes. Last fall was an
(07:23):
incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is
bad for operators. March Madness it was all shock right,
the number one seeds all went through to the final four.
That was bad for business for the operators. We've seen
a lot of those customer friendly outcomes. What in the
(07:45):
devil is going on? To help us dive into the numbers,
the trends unpack how we can sort of think about this.
Our statistical navin, a man who always show his work.
Action Network Director of Researcher Media, Evan Abrams, Welcome back, Evan.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Well, what's going on? Fellas? I mean, truthfully, the only
thing I got to say before we dive into this,
the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL Regular Season
and March Madness, were just so slanted towards favorites that
this was kind of predictable that this was going to
happen at least the conversation because the things that everyone
bet on favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you
and I have talked about futures. I feel like forever
(08:29):
it feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through
when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the
date is just crazy there when you talk about that
taking like the team's under ten to one, et cetera.
So conversation should be interesting.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
So listen. I've mentioned that I'm working on a book
a couple times on the show. One of the things
that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure
out how to unpack what happened last year and not
overreact to it and build something for the coming year
that I can then track on a week to week
basis and write about in the book. And a lot
(09:02):
of my research the past few months, which has been
really fun, has been what is the model that I
might need to build And a lot of what I've
come to the conclusion about is that there is no
superstat There is no analysis that can be done that
(09:23):
isn't already being done by eight thousand analysts who are
thin slicing, advanced metrics. When it comes to the NFL,
everyone's looking at success rate, everyone's looking at PEPA, everyone's
looking at explosiveness. If you really honestly like one of
the best models might be the luck rankings, knowing how
(09:44):
they create it and so and Simon and I talk
about that every week. But pricing has become really interesting.
We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right,
the Cowboys seven point dogs. That feels like an exorbitant
price to pay you want to bet on the Eagles.
So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the
things I had asked Evan to do is to go
(10:07):
through some pricing models based on the research we have
available in that lab. So I know, Evan, you're gonna
sort of certainly talk about that today, but explain, like,
as a thesis for this episode, what does the death
of the underdog mean exactly?
Speaker 4 (10:27):
I just think so, I mean PASPA May fourteenth to
twenty eighteen. Since that moment, I think we've seen a
little bit of a shift. And I tried to do
it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be
widespread legalization of sports betting, beginning in late twenty eighteen
twenty nineteen, kind of changes the game a little bit,
and that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well
(10:48):
early during this PASSPA era of new legalization across many
states in the US, So about two to three years,
you see an increase in ATS one percentage for certain
underdogs across you know, some of the sports, the majority
of one of them. So in the NFL, this also
coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads. At least initially
we were seeing, you know, seventeen say, a lot more
(11:11):
of those bigger numbers, and then what I think we're
actually seeing now and I kind of call it the
last like two and a half years or so, is
again some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to
cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing,
and I think that has something to do with the
lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between
(11:31):
the lines, the big things of that nature. But I
think it's happening both with single games and it's also
happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market.
So to me, that is a one, two, three of
what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog,
which is a very blanket statement when you consider I
like looking at the major six sports, so you say
(11:52):
at least in the US when it's you know, the
four major plus the two college because I feel like
that at least from an American point of view, gets
the most act. So that's at least where I started
the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars
kind of walking into this.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
Guys, Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take
that it's begetting It's that it's getting harder and harder
to find a statistical analytical edge when creating power ratings,
and that more and more we should be leaning into price.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
There's a lot of ways to go about this chat.
I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd
never know. Even if I have an edge, I would
never tell you, brother, you know, I love you to death.
It's just a nature of the year. I know. And
that's just the way it is. Bro.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
It's it's it's a different world where like guys, guys
have had edges for thirty forty years. You could say
they tinker with it and they're always updating it, but
they would never tell you, and they and you can,
you know, give him many drinks as you want, and
you could be like, well, this guy's full of But
then at the end of the day, this guy's a
(13:02):
long term winning better and clearly you know something, he's
doing something right. But I mean, just at the basis
we're getting to though, it's it does.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Feel like we have we've had.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
We're in a weird run here, Chad, Like what you're
just talking about it, like these favorites. I mean, hell,
the best underdog bet of the year was a dude
named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like it's
a weird year. It's a weird year. So you know,
it's back to back years of this of like you know,
we love long shots, we love these.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
You didn't see it coming.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
And you know, the one year I feel like we
really had a chance at that was that Bengals run
right with Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Like Evan kept telling us like one hundred and fifty
to one.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
I knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would
have really shocked the system, but it didn't happen. Right,
It was like Matt Stafford, the Rams team they end
up they end up winning it, and you know, like
every year comes on here he talks about these favorites
in the NFL, like Chad's making this bet every year,
you know, the top twenty or top you know, twenty
five to one teams and below, and Chad's been winning
(14:02):
on it because it's been pretty chalking the NFL. So
evan diamond in numbers here. I'm really interested here all
of it because we know because we're better's chat.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
So we've lost the money.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
So we're basically about the get federal medicine, about what
we need to adjust and what it's been like the
last couple of years here in all the major sports.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Right, So I haven't layout. You know we've got and
you and I discussed this. This was core to some
of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking
about a couple of months ago. Layout and there's three
sort of basic examples, is the best way to describe it.
(14:42):
Of you immediately recognize where you think the market will
be off, and those are the ones that you attack.
These archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances lead you to immediately
want to bet those teams that have been causing problems
(15:04):
the last couple of years. Give us the three best examples.
Start with number one.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off
of a bad loss. And I think when going through
all three of these, these are just normal situations that
most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do
they blindly bet them? Of course not, but usually over
time they end up turning an ROI. And historically yes,
but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs
(15:31):
off of a bad loss. So this is team with
a win percentage under forty percent coming off a loss
of twenty plus points. Pretty simple. So since two thousand
and three, and that is we're going to use that
number that year a lot. That is the bet Labs
database and in its entirety, so since two thousand and three,
betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under
seven percent blanket, but last two seasons twenty one, twenty
(15:55):
four and one ats negative ten point three percent ROI.
It is the worst two year stretch that we've tracked
in that span, So works long term, hasn't worked recently.
So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do
two more and then we can kind of react. I
don't want to I don't you want to react, you
want to go?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
I got I don't think I get home my time. Okay,
that's fucking insane, because that's like, that is the a
one example that anybody who has done this for any
length of time looks at. Give me the bad team
coming off a bad loss. It's gonna be a great
(16:35):
discount on the.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Free field goal price. Yeah, get a free three points.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Yes, like that has been. That has been a money
maker to Evan's point seven percent over the past twenty
plus seasons, but negative ten percent ROI the past two years. Simon,
did you realize it was that steep of a drop off?
Speaker 2 (17:01):
I knew just because early in the year.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
I remember at one point chat we were like one
to twenty five betting dogs.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, I remember going through it in the show, right.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
And you went through and I did as well, and
like looking at the dogs we were taking. That really
honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last
season because it wasn't like there was a bunch of laves,
even the Panthers. Eventually we swore them off and we
had a nice break where it was like, I don't
care they're giving us four points here that they shouldn't
be given us that.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
You know, the Panthers are just getting that bump.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
And what Evan Year is talking about is really alarming
because it just factors into these last two seasons how
bad the quarterback play has been. To me, all these
really bad teams, and I think that's a lot what
I dove into this season offseason is just the really
poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much
it really is that simple when you dive into it,
(17:51):
how big of the key it is where these teams
have confidence in their quarterback to go forward off fourth
and two, fourth and three, and there's other teams who
would just simply pun it on fourth and three four
with them too. So what Evan here is really making
that state out where it's like, you know, some of
these teams usually coming off with bad loss, the team
rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what
Evan's talk about historical data the last two years. I mean,
(18:13):
these teams just lay down and die. Like that's the
craziest part. It's like, you're getting these free points and
it's not mattering, and the books. It feels like what
Evan's saying here is the books are getting caught laying
these really bad numbers and the public's taking advantage of it.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Is two years enough of a sample size?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
Oh, I don't think so. I mean, I think we've
built these systems, models, like different things that trigger points,
let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of
like look at to start the season. I think we're
in wait and see mode. Like if this system, which
is seven percent, starts off you know two to eight,
you know, I think we might have an understanding of
(18:54):
something coming up. But I think this is a very
critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes
and even some of these bad quarterback player, which I
think Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think
one other thing that's important here. These are all based
off the closing lines. So like in this type of system,
you're talking about a bad dog off of bad loss,
Like you're assuming that line's going to close higher than
(19:14):
it opened because everyone's gonna want the other team. So
you know, the these teams losing in that sense where
we're talking about the closing line, which is probably a
better line, is also pretty shocking to me to be
honest and chat.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
It feels like Evan Year is talking about how it's
it's not enough data yet, but it's also he's telling
people that you just can't keep doing the same old way.
There is there could be something happening here that you
need to pay attention to, and that he's diving on
numbers here, and that's that's what I find so interested
about it, where it's like, you know, there's always times
too if I have a number on a dog that
I like and the luck rankings back it up because
(19:48):
it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number,
we always talk chat I blindly bet those numbers. Now
I am going to take a second and think about
the quarterback matchup, the coaching style, little things that I
wouldn't ever when I'm in a certain situation where I'd.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Just blindly bet a big dog.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
So what Evan saying here, I am going to take
into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's
changed that much, and it's really coinciding with a lot
of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these
last couple of seasons.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
All Right, I having number two, Okay, so this is
fading the bounce back bad team versus good team who
is off of a big loss. So again, team with
a win percentage under forty percent playing a team with
a sixty percent win percentage coming off a loss of
two touchdowns or more. So, basically you're fading the inevitable
bounce back, which most people would normally try to buy into.
(20:39):
So since two thousand and three, betting these spots positive
ROI have just over six percent, so relatively similar to
the one we just talked about, which was about seven percent.
Now last four seasons in this spot twenty and twenty
five against the spread a negative fourteen point seven ROI
also the worst stretch in the last twenty two to
twenty three years. So again kind of talking about a
(21:02):
very similar scenario where I mean that bad team which
you would look at probably getting a larger number on
the close versus the open, still not covering that number
nearly at all last four seasons, even bigger sample, So
you're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Yeah, that's fascinating because that's another one that has almost
been an auto play for years, right, Like you immediately
like identify that because we think we're smarter than the
average joe. We would bet that because the Joe is
going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what.
(21:43):
And now all of a sudden, and it's not just
two years, four years, that's like almost insidious. You know,
if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it
not really realizing that it's been eating away over a
longer period of time.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Time.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
That's that's a scary one.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
I think we're hitting a curve here, Like it's almost
like we're trying to figure out if these are going
to extend or if there's going to be some sort
of like buy back in the market to the meme
where we kind of go back to what we were.
I don't know if that's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
So Simon, Evan's making me want to hibernate.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I want to disappear now for like three years, and
I'll come back and just time the market right and
just be rolling in all these dogs, because like Evan
saying here, it's going to hit a breaking point right
the books they got the same numbers, they have the
same data. They will eventually just their models were adjust
But I keep telling Chad, we're in a weird time
period where these this switch up is happening with the
favorites and we're breaking into AI models, which is a
(22:40):
whole other conversation, but we're in a really weird period
here of like, Okay, favorites are doing really well, the
public is, you know, obviously doing really well.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
The books are trying to go against it.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
But the books are spending an absurd amount of money
right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially
in the sports betting world. So it's very it's a
very unique time period. It's where a lot of movie
parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even
doubt my model even more because it's like what Evan's
saying here is like I keep thinking I'm getting free
points and I'm not. They're kind of suckering us in.
(23:12):
And it's been that way the last couple of years.
And I definitely have not taken position on certain spots,
right bounce back spots quote unquote, but there are certain
teams that it's like, Okay, if Lamar has a bad
loss and he's in a bounce back spot and you're
getting the rapportunity of him as a dog, those are like, Okay,
that's a smash spot.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That's a spot you really want to lean into, despite
if your numbers are against it.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
You want to do what Evan's talking about here, which
is like you throw all the data out and you
just historical data tells you good quarterback, good team, after
a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad
quarterback on a bad team. Evan's telling you they don't.
They're not bouncing back right now. So that's seventhing. I
don't have to check on me and Chad during the
regular season. Just keep in the back of our mind
(23:55):
where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Man, they're just not doing it.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
The whatever is going on in college and the next
step to the NFL is not translating like it was
in the twenty tens.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Clearly, I feel like there's been a beacon that has
been buried in the dirt, and somehow we've been missing
it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly,
slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of them,
including the next one Evan is going to talk about,
of these sort of classic underdog play spots all converged
(24:30):
to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in
an entirely different way, whereas like maybe there's been spots
where one or two of them, but not in a
consecutive week. So it made us keep thinking. And last
year it just felt like every single week, and it's
made it look at these now, okay, now this.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Is good for you, This is good for us in
a lot of ways, shock because it does make you
look yourself and your models and all the different things
in a different perspective. And like, I'll never forget that
year the Egos win that Superol with Doug Peterson and
the RPOs that really messed with my model with a
lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
But the RPBO was.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Really working really well, and they brought into the league
and the same thing with a couple of teams in
that year start going for it more often our fourth down.
So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting. What we're
talking about here is like I don't want to overadjust,
Like you're saying, we don't want to overadjust because of
these last couple years in these anomalies, But like you're saying,
we need to really take into account here that these
(25:26):
dogs just ain't hitting like they used to, and there's
there's a bigger point here that we need to dive
into that we can't just say, well, it'll come back around.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
It's like, well maybe it won't. This could be a
big change in the NFL, and we need to adjust to it.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
So yeah, I'm really glad we're doing this because it's
it's something I've already dived.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Into a little bit. But hearing these raw numbers from Evan,
it's it's pretty alarming.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
The clarity is is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan's number three.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Yeah, definitely the underdog. I feel like almost is just
a tale of caution at the moment. But yeah, here's
system three. So and this is almost as much of
a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting
good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked
about the bad team and good team. Forget all that.
This is just team with win percentage over sixty percent
coming off a loss of twenty plus points, which is
(26:09):
basically doesn't happen a ton. But this is, you know,
the bounce back spot, the classic. So since two thousand
and three, betting these spots has a positive Hawaii of
just under sixteen percent, and since twenty twenty it is
thirteen and sixteen ats and it was oo and four
ats last season, So a literal reversal of fortune. And
(26:30):
I think this is literally the worst teams in the
NFL basically on the other side of this potentially, and
you wanting to back them, and I think you're kind
of hitting a bit of a brick wall. But the
thirteen and sixteen since twenty twenty, when you have a
sixteen percent ROI since two thousand and three, and that's
sixteen percent still now, including that thirteen and sixteen just
to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a
(26:52):
change of times. It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (26:54):
That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously
isn't that big. Yeah, twenty nine games just not that big.
It's not a big enough number to make you want
to change how you think about these things philosophically. But
oh and four last year, like Simon, I guarantee we
may we went oh and four on those bets, right,
(27:16):
like we can go back and look, but like I
feel like we are seeing all of the losses that
we had last year just from these three systems that
Evan is talking about.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Definitely Carolina loss.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
But I told you, like, I went back through and
I still can't leave how we avoided Tennessee. It feels
like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
But yeah, it's man. That's astonishing though.
Speaker 3 (27:41):
I mean, is that the first time, Evan you could
find the historical data that there was a year that
it just simply went.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Oh four or oh five.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
I could check, but there's just no chance you had
that type of percentage year to year and you would
have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is
the first lease in that spot. I think the scary
thing is if I took that sixty percent, so teams
with a win percentage over sixty percent, and instead of
a twenty point loss, I took it down to fourteen,
or I took it to nine, which was like more
than one possession. I think you'd see similar data in
(28:11):
terms of just the evening out of the numbers and
it not being so easy to back those teams. So
I just think there's more into the handicap than maybe
there was a little while ago. I think there's just
a lot going on, and also a lot more money
in the market. I think legalization has brought in a
tons of new types of betters that I think might
be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
There's a lot more money in the market. How is
pricing impacting all of this? Are bookmakers getting smarter at
pricing these things and we're not adjusting?
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Yeah, I mean I wrote down these three nuggets pillars
however you want to call them. But I think it's
more of a dynamic pricing, like the odds are getting
worse quicker, and I think the adjustment on players is
already kind of being baked in, Like we've seen some
crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled
out and like the other players props aren't moving like
(29:06):
they used to, because that's something that used to be
a bit of an edge, which is, you know, okay,
we're making the assumption on a so let's get ahead
of b And that's also even terms of like news,
betting is kind of being already baked in as they're
making the assumptions that we are. So and I also
think a little bit of the a lot of these
books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you nose,
(29:27):
which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and
the different companies that are kind of giving you both
options that are getting more popular. But I think that's
part of the problem is you know, you're betting into
minus one, twenty two's, one twenty fives, one twenty eight's
and that just never was the case.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
What about on NFL spreads? When I think about pricing,
I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the jew soe.
I'm thinking about is it at six and a half?
Is it at seven? Is it at seven and a half?
Do we think that they are just getting better at
(30:04):
creating lines that are harder to bet into?
Speaker 4 (30:08):
I think probably. So. I mean, I think, you know,
the NFL is an interesting beast just because of the
amount of popularity and attention and money that goes into
it versus all the other sports. So I don't know
if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten
seven and a half or eight a little while ago,
while now maybe it's you know, seven or six and
(30:30):
a half.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (30:31):
I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when
we bet into this every week, the favorites still get
all the money. The favorites still get the late action.
Except now the favorites are covering. When we used to
feel like the smart guys and the dog used to
get the back door or get the cover in those situations,
It's just not happening anymore.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Yeah, I've definitely have learned, especially since the legalization, not
to let lines scare me off that to me are
so stupid, don't make any sense. I just have to
live and die and take it. And the Biggs ones
that jumped out to me will always be that at
Washington Commander's line against Detroit.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
That line touched ten in that playoff game.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
And this is with Detroit with all those injuries to
their defense, and that stinks. Where I was going to
just hammer that number NonStop. I was like, this is
a really bad number. But I got scared off because
of the year we were just coming off with all
the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines.
And that was one of those games where I luckily
just lean into my model and really trust it. And
(31:27):
I think even by Thursday show, you could hear my
confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have
that Sunday night Monday, like I really didn't where It's like,
what am I missing here?
Speaker 2 (31:36):
Why is this ten?
Speaker 3 (31:37):
How are the Commander's ten points worse than this Detroit
team that all those injuries to their defense, And you know,
that was one of those situations where normal year dogs
are hitting well. For me, that would have been a
big six figure game, Like I really would have gone
to heavy on that game, knowing my model backs it up.
The old timers I talked to are telling me this
is a great spot for this Washington team, like it
(31:59):
all lined up with it and the data lined up.
But just because you're coming off of like that's been
so interesting to me that the books, you know, to me,
they look like they're laying really really interesting numbers and
strong numbers where the public don't even think that way
right their minded. If they see seven and a half,
they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven
and a half. Where me and Chatty the seven a
(32:19):
half in our eyes light up. We're getting a hook
on a dog we like and a really good number.
And of course we got slaughterered on those numbers, like
we got killed on taking those good numbers that we
think are good. But like we're talking about here, the
books they're not going to lose forever. Like that's why
I keep especially friends I have in my regular life,
regular people best sure they've ever had, Some guys over
(32:40):
sixty percent, some guys I know seventy percent, especially on
their pickpools, like best year they ever had, taking these favorites,
and I tell them, oh, get out, retire, just walk away,
like this is it just is not gonna happen again.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
They're like, well, how do you know?
Speaker 3 (32:54):
And it's just what Evan's talking here with historical data
that we've never seen it before.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
So yeah, we could get caught here, and it could
because of the rule changes.
Speaker 3 (33:01):
But it is interesting when you're talking about we keep
having these games and Evan's talking about here where it's like,
how do I not feel like we're getting free points
here and how do we not take it? Especially when
you have a model back in it where it's like
this is off by four or five points.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
I mean. Another way that jumps out to.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Me is that the championship of the College football Finals,
you know, Notre Dame should have been.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
A big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine
and a half?
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Like that Some of the smartest guys I know bet
for a living on college football, had that at three
and a half. Four A fluky touchdown happened at the
end of the game. I think it landed on ten
or something like. It didn't cover the number whatever it is.
Notre Dame didn't cover. These guys do a lot of
Joe public like assholes, right, that was an easy bet,
taking the superior.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
Team against the Notre Dame team that shouldn't have even
been in that.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Game where you got They don't realize how lucky they got. Now,
models historically, long term will always be right in those
type of spots. So it's across all sports where it's
like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs,
and these bounces keep going to public weight the end
of these games, and it's we're trying to put We're like,
we're breaking it all down here today and we're trying
to put numbers on it. There's so many of these
(34:09):
games where it's just not going our way. And I chat,
I talked to you about our regular season. It's like,
how many weeks do we have? Two and three? I
mean we were two and one and how many weeks
heading into that Sunday night show And we end the
week two and three, so it's like, are we terrible
at this? Should I retire? Do I just simply suck
at sports betting? Or do I need to adjust my
models and realize some of those games too are just
(34:31):
bad bounces.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
So it's hard not to overadjust.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
But at the same time, it's like, man, these last
couple of years with these favorites having like you're talking
about here, Man, it's it's spooking the shit out of me,
it really is. Or it's like Week one and two,
I got no problem of betting these dogs, Like that's
historically is always be good for us. Even last year,
the year the Favorites, it was still good for us.
But after that, man, shit favorites in the public chat?
Are we are we switching up? Is this are we
(34:54):
going to live our name the Favorites? Is this about
to be the new show? Well, that's that's.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
What I mean, Like the the numbers. Every single time
I step away from the show, or like and I'm
just in my head thinking about how this should go,
or looking at some of the bet Labs data, or
building new models that are just based on when to bet,
(35:20):
how lines move, those kinds of things. I start to
feel good about where we are going to go next season.
And then by the way, I'm seeing all of this
new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first
time right now as we're talking about it. So the
fact that there has been a slow decline that last
(35:45):
year popped, but we had not really recognized for some
of our very safe, consistent plays that have gone against
the public for years. That's alarming and that scares me
about everything that I've been thinking about building for the
past three months. So yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind
of freaking out right now, and I might have to
(36:09):
go back to square one at this point. That's how
I feel about it.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
The only thing I'll say is the only thing I'll
say is this, I think the most glaring stat So
we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest,
that's the show, like, that's kind of how this was built.
But I think this is the one that kind of
got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites
were positive from an ROI perspective in twenty twenty three
(36:37):
and twenty twenty four, and that was actually the first
time we had ever seen that happen. In back to
back years. I went back to about two thousand in
terms of I went I looked even further in terms
of data. So the fact that and moneyline favorites take
so much to become positive because of you know, one
loss takes you back a lot in terms of the
big So to me, back to back years of positivity
(36:59):
on the moneyline, ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL,
that is a bit of a turn for me because
I usually see, Okay, a favorite covers here, a favorite
covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was
a little alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs
on the money line, and it was one of the
worst years you could ever think of for that feeling great?
Speaker 1 (37:18):
That got the Cowboys at plus seven on the money
line a plus two four.
Speaker 4 (37:21):
Well, it hurts, is gonna you know, Tush push first drive.
We're gonna all feel great. It's gonna be fair, that's
all right.
Speaker 1 (37:27):
The back door, which we love game planning for, feels
like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us?
Speaker 4 (37:36):
Yeah, So underdogs trailing by ten plus points at any
point of the game covered at a twenty one percent
rate last season, The year prior it was twenty percent,
so pretty consistent. That was the first time in over
a decade we saw back to back years though, of
that low of a percentage. So in terms of where
(37:57):
we're used to, a team falls beyond, like we've seen
in the NBA what feels like a million times this
postseason and ends up coming back and either wins the
game or covers the game or some crazy statistic just
isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think
we're used to.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Now.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
It's probably the difference of about five percent four percent,
depending on the average per season overall year to year,
But when you talk about the last two years and
the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this
story because I think that's what we're used to. We're
used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated
(38:34):
as the week goes by, and then a majority of
the time or a decent percentage of the time them
coming through the back door and coming into the winning
percentage of underdogs at the end of the season, And
at twenty percent, you're just not seeing that. So I
think it's a part of the story.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either
hope or false hope, which is the books don't lose,
they always make money, right, And so even like what
we're talking about with DraftKings and FanDuel and their earnings
calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and
(39:13):
changing projections and outlooks, like, is this a false hope
that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to
turn back around or is everybody going to have to recalibrate?
Speaker 3 (39:29):
Oh Man, Like Kevin said, this is a defining season
in many ways, but I feel like it's.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Defining decade in many ways. Right, this is going to
be a slow burn for me.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
And you know, like I joke, we all a time, Chad,
this isn't a job that I know guys.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Most guys that do this job eventually get burned out.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
They find something else and they go down a different
path because sports betting is so hard and you have
to consistently be tinkering and update your model and you
can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways like
you're talking on especially here, and you know, it's it's
not as simple as we simply just bet the dog,
especially in those spots but our hardest job chat is
we have to pick five games every week, So one
(40:07):
or two of those games we're gonna bet it. Because
we love the number. The models back that we love
the spot. We have to start really.
Speaker 2 (40:13):
Challenging ourselves that is this actually a good spot? Is
this what we want to be doing?
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Where Evan's giving us these numbers here, that's telling you
that you know, it's it's kind of a favorites world
and because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league
want to bet.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
Infit the offenses?
Speaker 3 (40:28):
And that that kind of mean to me is what's
jumping out here where It's like Evan's telling you, if
you get a ten point lead, it's really tough for
these teams to catch up because the offense to these
other teams are just so dynamic now, where like, even
if we do get that back door score, who's to
say that team's not going to get down there on
our short field and score their own field goal or
touchdown and once again we're not covering.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
So yeah, this is a show.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more
of these numbers from Evan because it's it's a good
reminder too to play during the season to ourselves because
it's it's changed.
Speaker 2 (40:57):
Jad.
Speaker 3 (40:58):
We always joke we used to force our halves to
put one favorite in. We now might have to flip
and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs and try
to go three favorites or something. But like you said,
I don't want to overadjust yet. But I did make
big adjustments on into the playoffs, and people saw it
like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and
I had to really be pushed to want to take
a dog. I mean, hell, I took both chalk home
(41:21):
favorites in the AFC Championship game, and I heard a
lot of shit that week. It's like, you think it's
just gonna be that easy, egos and the Chiefs, and
that's the way it's been for the public people. It's
really been that easy. So yeah, hearing these numbers get
broken down, you know, my fear is Chad that I
overadjust and like Evan just said, it coming back around
(41:41):
this season me and you miss that golden whale, Like
that's what I don't.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
Want to miss here where I don't think we will.
Speaker 3 (41:48):
I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially
midway through the season, in week twelve and eleven, you know,
we'll say, Okay, let's go back to what we were
doing that was so good for us the previous years.
Where last year, I remember in week twelve and eleven,
I mean you were look at each other being.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
Like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites? What are
we supposed to do here?
Speaker 3 (42:06):
And all of a sudden, I think, Evan, we had
a run there of five six straight weeks of favorites
covering in the middle of the season, which just not happened.
Because that's why I keep trying to talk about the
sports books. They the NFL is their baby, this is
their most important sport. The money that comes in on
this sport isn't It's out of this world compared to
other sports, right, this is the driver of the marketell
(42:28):
I go to the sports book all the time in
my off season. The difference between the NFL season and
others and the other seasons is palpable.
Speaker 2 (42:37):
So, yeah, Chad, this is I don't want to overadjust.
Speaker 3 (42:41):
But I'm telling you, the more I talk to bookmakers,
it feels like they're feeling confident, they're not over worried
about it. Maybe we should do the same but it's
not in my nature not to be worried and not
to freak out about it.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
My feeling on anxiety generally is it is the most
powerful tool to improve, honestly, because if you use it properly,
then you're going to do the work you need to
do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a
better position to succeed. If you use it negatively and
it keep you up at night, it just paralyzes you
(43:14):
and shuts you down and makes you not be able
to function. It's terrible. But I actually love the power
of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to
work and things that you can control, because it will
fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the
(43:34):
wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we
get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about
a bunch of different areas where we have historically focused.
Can you give us some examples where other sort of
(43:55):
conventional gambling wisdom is now losing better's money.
Speaker 4 (44:00):
So I think a classic to anytime longtime NFL gambler
is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind
of already talked about a little bit. But this is
just is a little more simple. So I looked at
all teams that met this betting criteria. Teams with a
losing record, who are underdogs who are just coming off
a loss in general, classic ugly dog situation. If you
(44:21):
bet every team in that situation last two seasons, you'd
have a negative ROI of almost nine percent two seasons.
Nine percent, pretty damn bad. That is the worst two
year stretch in our bet Labs database again since two
thousand and three numbers. So again pretty simple here, that
is teams with a losing record, underdogs off a loss,
(44:43):
spread doesn't matter. Those are just the three criterias. You'd
be down almost nine percent. And if you go even
deeper there so really ugly dogs six plus point dogs,
so instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of
six points or more. It honestly gets even worse. And
the thing is you want to look at least I did.
I looked at moneyline results, So between twenty thirteen and
(45:06):
twenty eighteen, which is basically pre paspa minus six point
one percent ROI twenty two point nine percent straight up.
So that is twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen, I'll say
that again minus six point one percent ROI twenty three
percent straight up. Since twenty nineteen, it is minus eighteen
(45:26):
percent ROI and eighteen percent straight up. So that is
about three times worse on the ROI and about five
percent less on the straight up win percentage. And we're
just talking about blanketed here, big underdogs off a loss,
bad team, And that is pretty much what a lot
(45:46):
of us tend to at least look at early week
to kind of filter flag, you know, trigger some signals,
and they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment.
So I felt like that was a good signal of
what the heck is happening here.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
Yeah, I actually wonder the passpo line of demarcation and legalization.
We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about
how much more money is coming into the market, how
the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right,
and they probably think less and less about what professional
(46:26):
betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off
of a five hundred dollars bet, even if it's someone
else's betting ten thousand dollars on the other side, if
the five hundred is smart money, I think that's having
a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon,
then maybe we've been accounting for a little bit.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
I would say the biggest change to for me would be,
you know, I was living in Vegas, there were just
so few guys who did this for a living, especially
bet on the NFL for a living, because it's such
a hard sport to do.
Speaker 2 (47:05):
Now, Chad, it's a whole different world.
Speaker 3 (47:07):
Like there's guys who I never would have taken serious,
being the douchebag I was back.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Then, being like this not a real better Now, No,
this dude's legit. Like he's put in the work. You know.
Speaker 3 (47:17):
I see him there all the time in the sports book.
The more I talk to them, the more I respect them.
And this time goes along. You're like, Okay, it's a
new wave of this younger generation, people my age, I
should say, that have come to this market with their
own computer models where it just was never liked that, right,
you never really saw it like that in Vegas, And
I like it. But like you're saying, it's changed the
(47:39):
market in a lot of ways and a lot of
things we joked about, especially when they legalize it, of
you know, there's gonna be a lot of games where
we get a ton of free points. We've been getting
that chet, but it's not been coming through. And I
especially would have loved having to do just primetime games
because you know, some of my best runs have been
those underdaw under the unders on these primetime games. Like
(48:02):
I've I've just had a really good run, especially since
the legalization of sports betting, just simply betting unders in
these primetime games.
Speaker 2 (48:10):
And you know we had that one.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Year, was that two years ago, Evan, where we were
like seventy percent betting the under in prime time years.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
It was crazy.
Speaker 3 (48:16):
But I remember last year came back around, right, we
had a bunch of overs in prime time games. So
like we can just keep talking about it. It's like I
once again, I don't overad just but we're seeing the
public even they're betting these lines up. These offenses have
been coming for the favorites, and these offenses on these
for these favorites have been coming through for them, where
the overs last year came through for them, and same
(48:38):
with the favorites.
Speaker 2 (48:39):
So I don't know if you have numbers on that,
do you, Evan?
Speaker 4 (48:41):
Yeah, I just pulled so last season exactly five hundred.
So basically, totals in night games thirty three and thirty
three in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three they
were seventy nine and forty eight to the under almost
sixty three percent. So basically, I think you nailed it.
I think it was Favorites creating those totals that should
(49:05):
have gone under to over the underdog's not covering, and
it happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically
pushed it about twelve percent last year.
Speaker 3 (49:13):
I mean, you just heard that Chats. That's crazy the
difference from year to year. And that's why I keep
trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly.
Like we with the rule change to the kickoff, we
are living in a weird time period where all these
lines were all screwed up, and we're gonna look back
on it and just be like it was that simple teams,
better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields more often than
(49:35):
not because of the new kickoff rules. And you know,
those unders killed me. But I remember thinking it might
have been week five or six, adjust I didn't come
on the show every week saying bet these product time
owners because of that I was like, something's simply different
here where these games we're not getting extra points or
we're not getting the free points were used to. These
games are going to go over because something has changed.
(49:56):
And unfortunately it took me all season to figure out
that kickoff. Man, it changed so much last season, and
just there, Evan, given those numbers, really jumps out to
me how much it did change it.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again, and I
think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now is
that it's going to change it to the detriment of
what we saw last year. I think that teams will
more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking
(50:28):
off to putting the team in a position of running
it back because the penalty is going to be so
much greater. It's going to be even harder to stop
teams because the field's going to be even shorter. Number one.
Number two, the one thing that worries me, assignment about
what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one
(50:49):
year sample and a lot of the stuff that Evan
just pointed out is multi year changes that where we've
seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down down,
that has nothing to do with kickoffs, and that's the
harder thing to unpack.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
It does. But last year was that what I've been
talking about on steroids.
Speaker 3 (51:08):
Like those other years, the margins were much smaller, and
we've already tald about there's other years the stuff that
makes sense.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
For those years where the practice rate has dropped.
Speaker 3 (51:17):
And you can really dive into this whole thing if
people want to, Like I know proso have done it,
but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling less has
affected a lot of these teams, especially the difference between
a well coached team and teams that put on the
pads during practice during certain weeks and teams that simply
do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if
people want to look into that stuff. But what you're
(51:39):
talking about, going back chat, I feel like is also something.
I mean, you've been harping on about these coaches and
these fourth downs, like we've really if you go back
and you look through even these last couple of years,
especially these last four or five years since COVID, the
upticking coaches going forward on fourth down on their own
side of the field is greatly up than it was
in the twenty ten, and that is something that you
(52:01):
could attribute more to these favorites. But I just wanted
to bring up the prime time underthink is people have
asked me about it. Why we really didn't talk about
it last season. I was like, what is there to
talk about it? It's a bad bet, Like there was
no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season, like
we said, I'm hoping the books ad just because of
the kickoff Chad, maybe every week we'll get an.
Speaker 2 (52:21):
Extra four or five points.
Speaker 3 (52:22):
But you know, last year what hung true to me
was Evan always come on here and talk about the
fifty point line right when the total is above fifty points.
Historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if
Evan has the numbers of it. Felt the same thing
last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every
week like it was in the before, where you know,
certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it,
(52:43):
where it's like, no, these two offenses can hit this
number where usually we talk, we joke all the time,
like you see a fifty one, you blindly take that under. Historically,
long term that's a winner. So once again is because
of the kickoff chats because of the fourth down ruling.
Speaker 2 (52:58):
Is it all of it all mixed in one pot together.
Speaker 3 (52:59):
It's just something that jumped out to me where it's
like these simple bets I don't need to put a
ton of work into now that's gonna be in another
couple hours a week added into my regime of diving too,
these different games and these numbers, just because I can't
blindly bet the under on fifty one that I used to,
Is that true, Evan?
Speaker 4 (53:16):
Yeah, So at fifty or higher, twenty twenty one to
twenty twenty three, fifty nine percent, sixty four forty four.
Last year thirteen and twelve five hundred didn't matter all
in the air. So yeah, I mean last season that
number didn't turn to anything. You know, three years prior,
you'd be up almost thirteen percent ROI.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad,
A lot of patterns.
Speaker 1 (53:41):
I actually wonder in the next year, assignment, will you
spend more time during this offseason focusing on fourth down
and how to find the signals and the noise on
fourth down conversion or what happened with the kickoff?
Speaker 2 (54:00):
I already I'm done with a kickoff.
Speaker 3 (54:02):
I put a ton of time in that receis the
season ended jat like I usually go away, I didn't
do any of that. I literally just dove right back
into it cause I was losing my shit, especially in
the middle of the season about it, where it's like,
why can't I just this?
Speaker 2 (54:14):
What am I missing on this rule? And what's the
biggest difference here?
Speaker 3 (54:17):
I told you the biggest difference to me these last
couple of years has been the influx of these mobile
quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches
call these fourth down place because that is such a
huge difference, right.
Speaker 2 (54:30):
You have so many different options.
Speaker 3 (54:32):
You can either do a readoption to the running back
where the quarterback can keep it and running, or they
can just take it out of the running backs belly
and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen
these last five, six, seven years, that really changed these
fourth down offenses where it's.
Speaker 2 (54:44):
Such a big deal. So I'm probably with you.
Speaker 3 (54:47):
I'll probably spend the next you know, month of May
a little bit of June dive even more to these
fourth down offenses. And you know, I've watched every single
snap Daniels took on fourth downs, and I'm really excited
Kingsbury does in year two of him because every play
they called for him on fourth down was the perfect
call of the perfect exact time. That's why me and
(55:07):
you kept yelling for regression. It took a long ass time,
I think, into the NFC Championship game for that aggression
to hit on fourth down because every play they had called,
Daniels always made their right read. Either gave it to
the running back, hit the first read and Terry McLaurin,
or he pulled it in and ranted himself. Never did
he make the wrong read. What was it eighty percent
they were on fourth down, So it was just I mean,
(55:28):
it's incredible going back and watching that because you know,
I like to pick guys apart, because I know what
this is what the NFL coaches are gonna do. Like
every team the NFC is, all they're doing is watching
Daniels tape. Like they don't care about Dak or Russell
Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hurts. Everyone's just so
locked in on Daniels because he was such a game
fajer last year and that that to meet chat would
be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on
(55:50):
these fourth downs on short fields? What is the biggest
change these coaches have made with a new kickoff rule?
Speaker 1 (55:56):
Simon Evan, This may be the most important episode we
ever do, and amazingly We'll return with our next episode
of The Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page.
Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.
(56:18):
Feedback is a gift Until next time, Love you. Action
Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone
you care about has a gambling problem, Help us available
twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always buy my co host, my
companion Mike and Padre might BFF professional better sign man
Hunter Ato.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So am in shat.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
What a magical week the release of the schedule. It's
one of my favorite weeks of the year for a
football fan.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Simon, I know that over the weekend. Yeah, you had
planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at
eleven PM.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
On Mother's Day.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
On Mother's Day, which is fine, Like you know, your
mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done
your duty as a son throughout the day to honor
your mother. Did you play in the poker tournament? How
did it go?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Did so?
Speaker 3 (00:56):
It was the final table, That's why it was at
such a weird late hour, and there was ten of us.
I unfortunately took eighth, but going in, I was a
short stack, and I basically I'm a weird person with
numbers chat as you know, and seven four suited is
my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth
blind in, so I was maybe two guys already been
(01:18):
knocked out. And then I was at this point the
small blind, so I'm already invested and get the seven
fourth suited, had to shove guy pocket tens and basically
got very lucky.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
On the right.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I basically flopped trips and this guy rivers the ten.
So it's fun, it's gambling, yeah, but.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It was just a classic b too.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Where as soon as I saw his hand and I
got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this
is a dead hand. I'm gonna lose this. There's no
way it never you never want to flop it. But yeah,
it's it's something I love doing the off season and
we'll see World Chairs of Poker. I'm getting the itch,
I got ten k to burn. I might end up
down in Vegas. I'm playing in that tournament.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
We'll say.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So when you saw the river, like, what went like.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I already grabbed my bag, chat, I was already gone, yeah,
thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked
everybody and grabbed my bag and yeah, so it was
already walking off and it's just especially at that time.
So I think at this point, it might have been
just getting to midnight or just before, and I was
like all right, perfect, I'll get home just in time
(02:26):
to get some rest and hop on the pod.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
I mean you were yeah, you were barely there. You
were there for less than an hour.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Then exactly exactly.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
I spent more time in the sports book, hanging out
watching the games, and I did actually playing on the tournament.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
I will look speaking of sportsbook, we know that, and
we got a big show that we're going to get to,
but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off
early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early
this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup.
We have the Dallas Cowboys seven point underdogs on the
(03:02):
road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The money
line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys. This
is germane to the show because the show is going
to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some
of the trends that have been changing. And it speaks
to a lot of the work that we've talked about
(03:23):
a couple times on the show throughout the year, but
a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how
you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's going to
be on to break it down for us, but before
we dig more deeply into that intro, immediately plus seven
I bet that. I bet the plus two forty. I
(03:43):
know you did too.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Yeah, that's that's just an insane opening number. But it's
the respect that Philadelphia.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Deserves and just the season that Dallas is coming off of, right,
So it's all public perception. We talk all the time
about week one lines and Dak being disrespectful divisional game
like he is in this spot. That that's a nice number,
especially where you think about the fact that you know,
Kellen Moore did leave, like the Eagles are going to
learn a new offense, so this is week one and
Jalen hurts in a new offense. So pretty interesting that
(04:13):
the fact that they hung this number the way they did,
and you know, I'm looking at from the standpoint of
what you are, it's it's a big number.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Rebenting it really early. It is May.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
But me and chat are taking a position because you
expect this to what go to five and a half, four.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And a half, maybe perhaps by the.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Night they kick off, So we want to take a
position here and if it goes the other way, even better,
like I love if we get to that night chat
and we get an eight eight and a half on
this number because so many people are throwing their parlays
and teasers starting their week off with the Eagles at
this number. So yeah, it's just a really fun opening number.
Great opening night. I think it's the first time the
Egles have opened the season against the Cowboys at home
(04:53):
since two thousand, so we're talking about twenty five years here,
So pretty pretty excited as an Eagles fan that opening night.
I'll definitely be there Thursday night, no work for Simon.
I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and
watching this game.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is
it's such a a indicator of recency bias. Like obviously
everyone is all hyped on the Eagles, and everyone is
looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting
that Dak Prescott is going to be back, and that
it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback, and
(05:30):
it's not like this team won't be competitive, and it's
not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the
Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive
line at some point they were playing almost nobody, and
then Dak obviously was out for much of the year.
So this just feels like way too big of a number.
I know it's may I know we're not getting overextended
(05:52):
on the Cowboys as seven point underdogs on the road
in the division, but geez, geez, almighty, that is that
is a hefty, hefty price if you want to be
betting on the Eagles, or a really nice discount if
you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both.
You can't get it in the action app yet, but
I bet both the Cowboys plus seven and the Cowboys
(06:14):
on the money line at plus two forty. All right,
this all leads in perfectly to what we're going to
dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a
lot on this show the last couple of years when
we discuss every single week in this past NFL offseason,
the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL,
(06:39):
although across multiple sports, and this has been especially true
since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act
aka PASPA in two thousand and eighteen. It's also been
a real business story, and I've mentioned this a few
times on the show. The past six to nine months,
DraftKings Fandle, the two biggest operator, was the biggest percentage
(07:01):
of market share amongst all online sportsbooks, have reported in
Q four and in Q one now that their earnings
were less than expected. Their revenue was less than expected
because of continued customer friendly outcomes. Last fall was an
(07:23):
incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is
bad for operators. March Madness it was all shock right,
the number one seeds all went through to the final four.
That was bad for business for the operators. We've seen
a lot of those customer friendly outcomes. What in the
(07:45):
devil is going on? To help us dive into the numbers,
the trends unpack how we can sort of think about this.
Our statistical navin, a man who always show his work.
Action Network Director of Researcher Media, Evan Abrams, Welcome back, Evan.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Well, what's going on? Fellas? I mean, truthfully, the only
thing I got to say before we dive into this,
the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL Regular Season
and March Madness, were just so slanted towards favorites that
this was kind of predictable that this was going to
happen at least the conversation because the things that everyone
bet on favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you
and I have talked about futures. I feel like forever
(08:29):
it feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through
when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the
date is just crazy there when you talk about that
taking like the team's under ten to one, et cetera.
So conversation should be interesting.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
So listen. I've mentioned that I'm working on a book
a couple times on the show. One of the things
that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure
out how to unpack what happened last year and not
overreact to it and build something for the coming year
that I can then track on a week to week
basis and write about in the book. And a lot
(09:02):
of my research the past few months, which has been
really fun, has been what is the model that I
might need to build And a lot of what I've
come to the conclusion about is that there is no
superstat There is no analysis that can be done that
(09:23):
isn't already being done by eight thousand analysts who are
thin slicing, advanced metrics. When it comes to the NFL,
everyone's looking at success rate, everyone's looking at PEPA, everyone's
looking at explosiveness. If you really honestly like one of
the best models might be the luck rankings, knowing how
(09:44):
they create it and so and Simon and I talk
about that every week. But pricing has become really interesting.
We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right,
the Cowboys seven point dogs. That feels like an exorbitant
price to pay you want to bet on the Eagles.
So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the
things I had asked Evan to do is to go
(10:07):
through some pricing models based on the research we have
available in that lab. So I know, Evan, you're gonna
sort of certainly talk about that today, but explain, like,
as a thesis for this episode, what does the death
of the underdog mean exactly?
Speaker 4 (10:27):
I just think so, I mean PASPA May fourteenth to
twenty eighteen. Since that moment, I think we've seen a
little bit of a shift. And I tried to do
it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be
widespread legalization of sports betting, beginning in late twenty eighteen
twenty nineteen, kind of changes the game a little bit,
and that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well
(10:48):
early during this PASSPA era of new legalization across many
states in the US, So about two to three years,
you see an increase in ATS one percentage for certain
underdogs across you know, some of the sports, the majority
of one of them. So in the NFL, this also
coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads. At least initially
we were seeing, you know, seventeen say, a lot more
(11:11):
of those bigger numbers, and then what I think we're
actually seeing now and I kind of call it the
last like two and a half years or so, is
again some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to
cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing,
and I think that has something to do with the
lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between
(11:31):
the lines, the big things of that nature. But I
think it's happening both with single games and it's also
happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market.
So to me, that is a one, two, three of
what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog,
which is a very blanket statement when you consider I
like looking at the major six sports, so you say
(11:52):
at least in the US when it's you know, the
four major plus the two college because I feel like
that at least from an American point of view, gets
the most act. So that's at least where I started
the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars
kind of walking into this.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
Guys, Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take
that it's begetting It's that it's getting harder and harder
to find a statistical analytical edge when creating power ratings,
and that more and more we should be leaning into price.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
There's a lot of ways to go about this chat.
I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd
never know. Even if I have an edge, I would
never tell you, brother, you know, I love you to death.
It's just a nature of the year. I know. And
that's just the way it is. Bro.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
It's it's it's a different world where like guys, guys
have had edges for thirty forty years. You could say
they tinker with it and they're always updating it, but
they would never tell you, and they and you can,
you know, give him many drinks as you want, and
you could be like, well, this guy's full of But
then at the end of the day, this guy's a
(13:02):
long term winning better and clearly you know something, he's
doing something right. But I mean, just at the basis
we're getting to though, it's it does.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Feel like we have we've had.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
We're in a weird run here, Chad, Like what you're
just talking about it, like these favorites. I mean, hell,
the best underdog bet of the year was a dude
named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like it's
a weird year. It's a weird year. So you know,
it's back to back years of this of like you know,
we love long shots, we love these.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
You didn't see it coming.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
And you know, the one year I feel like we
really had a chance at that was that Bengals run
right with Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Like Evan kept telling us like one hundred and fifty
to one.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
I knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would
have really shocked the system, but it didn't happen. Right,
It was like Matt Stafford, the Rams team they end
up they end up winning it, and you know, like
every year comes on here he talks about these favorites
in the NFL, like Chad's making this bet every year,
you know, the top twenty or top you know, twenty
five to one teams and below, and Chad's been winning
(14:02):
on it because it's been pretty chalking the NFL. So
evan diamond in numbers here. I'm really interested here all
of it because we know because we're better's chat.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
So we've lost the money.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
So we're basically about the get federal medicine, about what
we need to adjust and what it's been like the
last couple of years here in all the major sports.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Right, So I haven't layout. You know we've got and
you and I discussed this. This was core to some
of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking
about a couple of months ago. Layout and there's three
sort of basic examples, is the best way to describe it.
(14:42):
Of you immediately recognize where you think the market will
be off, and those are the ones that you attack.
These archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances lead you to immediately
want to bet those teams that have been causing problems
(15:04):
the last couple of years. Give us the three best examples.
Start with number one.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off
of a bad loss. And I think when going through
all three of these, these are just normal situations that
most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do
they blindly bet them? Of course not, but usually over
time they end up turning an ROI. And historically yes,
but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs
(15:31):
off of a bad loss. So this is team with
a win percentage under forty percent coming off a loss
of twenty plus points. Pretty simple. So since two thousand
and three, and that is we're going to use that
number that year a lot. That is the bet Labs
database and in its entirety, so since two thousand and three,
betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under
seven percent blanket, but last two seasons twenty one, twenty
(15:55):
four and one ats negative ten point three percent ROI.
It is the worst two year stretch that we've tracked
in that span, So works long term, hasn't worked recently.
So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do
two more and then we can kind of react. I
don't want to I don't you want to react, you
want to go?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
I got I don't think I get home my time. Okay,
that's fucking insane, because that's like, that is the a
one example that anybody who has done this for any
length of time looks at. Give me the bad team
coming off a bad loss. It's gonna be a great
(16:35):
discount on the.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Free field goal price. Yeah, get a free three points.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Yes, like that has been. That has been a money
maker to Evan's point seven percent over the past twenty
plus seasons, but negative ten percent ROI the past two years. Simon,
did you realize it was that steep of a drop off?
Speaker 2 (17:01):
I knew just because early in the year.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
I remember at one point chat we were like one
to twenty five betting dogs.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, I remember going through it in the show, right.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
And you went through and I did as well, and
like looking at the dogs we were taking. That really
honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last
season because it wasn't like there was a bunch of laves,
even the Panthers. Eventually we swore them off and we
had a nice break where it was like, I don't
care they're giving us four points here that they shouldn't
be given us that.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
You know, the Panthers are just getting that bump.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
And what Evan Year is talking about is really alarming
because it just factors into these last two seasons how
bad the quarterback play has been. To me, all these
really bad teams, and I think that's a lot what
I dove into this season offseason is just the really
poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much
it really is that simple when you dive into it,
(17:51):
how big of the key it is where these teams
have confidence in their quarterback to go forward off fourth
and two, fourth and three, and there's other teams who
would just simply pun it on fourth and three four
with them too. So what Evan here is really making
that state out where it's like, you know, some of
these teams usually coming off with bad loss, the team
rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what
Evan's talk about historical data the last two years. I mean,
(18:13):
these teams just lay down and die. Like that's the
craziest part. It's like, you're getting these free points and
it's not mattering, and the books. It feels like what
Evan's saying here is the books are getting caught laying
these really bad numbers and the public's taking advantage of it.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Is two years enough of a sample size?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
Oh, I don't think so. I mean, I think we've
built these systems, models, like different things that trigger points,
let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of
like look at to start the season. I think we're
in wait and see mode. Like if this system, which
is seven percent, starts off you know two to eight,
you know, I think we might have an understanding of
(18:54):
something coming up. But I think this is a very
critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes
and even some of these bad quarterback player, which I
think Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think
one other thing that's important here. These are all based
off the closing lines. So like in this type of system,
you're talking about a bad dog off of bad loss,
Like you're assuming that line's going to close higher than
(19:14):
it opened because everyone's gonna want the other team. So
you know, the these teams losing in that sense where
we're talking about the closing line, which is probably a
better line, is also pretty shocking to me to be
honest and chat.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
It feels like Evan Year is talking about how it's
it's not enough data yet, but it's also he's telling
people that you just can't keep doing the same old way.
There is there could be something happening here that you
need to pay attention to, and that he's diving on
numbers here, and that's that's what I find so interested
about it, where it's like, you know, there's always times
too if I have a number on a dog that
I like and the luck rankings back it up because
(19:48):
it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number,
we always talk chat I blindly bet those numbers. Now
I am going to take a second and think about
the quarterback matchup, the coaching style, little things that I
wouldn't ever when I'm in a certain situation where I'd.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Just blindly bet a big dog.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
So what Evan saying here, I am going to take
into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's
changed that much, and it's really coinciding with a lot
of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these
last couple of seasons.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
All Right, I having number two, Okay, so this is
fading the bounce back bad team versus good team who
is off of a big loss. So again, team with
a win percentage under forty percent playing a team with
a sixty percent win percentage coming off a loss of
two touchdowns or more. So, basically you're fading the inevitable
bounce back, which most people would normally try to buy into.
(20:39):
So since two thousand and three, betting these spots positive
ROI have just over six percent, so relatively similar to
the one we just talked about, which was about seven percent.
Now last four seasons in this spot twenty and twenty
five against the spread a negative fourteen point seven ROI
also the worst stretch in the last twenty two to
twenty three years. So again kind of talking about a
(21:02):
very similar scenario where I mean that bad team which
you would look at probably getting a larger number on
the close versus the open, still not covering that number
nearly at all last four seasons, even bigger sample, So
you're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Yeah, that's fascinating because that's another one that has almost
been an auto play for years, right, Like you immediately
like identify that because we think we're smarter than the
average joe. We would bet that because the Joe is
going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what.
(21:43):
And now all of a sudden, and it's not just
two years, four years, that's like almost insidious. You know,
if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it
not really realizing that it's been eating away over a
longer period of time.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Time.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
That's that's a scary one.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
I think we're hitting a curve here, Like it's almost
like we're trying to figure out if these are going
to extend or if there's going to be some sort
of like buy back in the market to the meme
where we kind of go back to what we were.
I don't know if that's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
So Simon, Evan's making me want to hibernate.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I want to disappear now for like three years, and
I'll come back and just time the market right and
just be rolling in all these dogs, because like Evan
saying here, it's going to hit a breaking point right
the books they got the same numbers, they have the
same data. They will eventually just their models were adjust
But I keep telling Chad, we're in a weird time
period where these this switch up is happening with the
favorites and we're breaking into AI models, which is a
(22:40):
whole other conversation, but we're in a really weird period
here of like, Okay, favorites are doing really well, the
public is, you know, obviously doing really well.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
The books are trying to go against it.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
But the books are spending an absurd amount of money
right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially
in the sports betting world. So it's very it's a
very unique time period. It's where a lot of movie
parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even
doubt my model even more because it's like what Evan's
saying here is like I keep thinking I'm getting free
points and I'm not. They're kind of suckering us in.
(23:12):
And it's been that way the last couple of years.
And I definitely have not taken position on certain spots,
right bounce back spots quote unquote, but there are certain
teams that it's like, Okay, if Lamar has a bad
loss and he's in a bounce back spot and you're
getting the rapportunity of him as a dog, those are like, Okay,
that's a smash spot.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That's a spot you really want to lean into, despite
if your numbers are against it.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
You want to do what Evan's talking about here, which
is like you throw all the data out and you
just historical data tells you good quarterback, good team, after
a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad
quarterback on a bad team. Evan's telling you they don't.
They're not bouncing back right now. So that's seventhing. I
don't have to check on me and Chad during the
regular season. Just keep in the back of our mind
(23:55):
where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Man, they're just not doing it.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
The whatever is going on in college and the next
step to the NFL is not translating like it was
in the twenty tens.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Clearly, I feel like there's been a beacon that has
been buried in the dirt, and somehow we've been missing
it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly,
slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of them,
including the next one Evan is going to talk about,
of these sort of classic underdog play spots all converged
(24:30):
to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in
an entirely different way, whereas like maybe there's been spots
where one or two of them, but not in a
consecutive week. So it made us keep thinking. And last
year it just felt like every single week, and it's
made it look at these now, okay, now this.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Is good for you, This is good for us in
a lot of ways, shock because it does make you
look yourself and your models and all the different things
in a different perspective. And like, I'll never forget that
year the Egos win that Superol with Doug Peterson and
the RPOs that really messed with my model with a
lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
But the RPBO was.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Really working really well, and they brought into the league
and the same thing with a couple of teams in
that year start going for it more often our fourth down.
So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting. What we're
talking about here is like I don't want to overadjust,
Like you're saying, we don't want to overadjust because of
these last couple years in these anomalies, But like you're saying,
we need to really take into account here that these
(25:26):
dogs just ain't hitting like they used to, and there's
there's a bigger point here that we need to dive
into that we can't just say, well, it'll come back around.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
It's like, well maybe it won't. This could be a
big change in the NFL, and we need to adjust to it.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
So yeah, I'm really glad we're doing this because it's
it's something I've already dived.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Into a little bit. But hearing these raw numbers from Evan,
it's it's pretty alarming.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
The clarity is is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan's number three.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Yeah, definitely the underdog. I feel like almost is just
a tale of caution at the moment. But yeah, here's
system three. So and this is almost as much of
a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting
good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked
about the bad team and good team. Forget all that.
This is just team with win percentage over sixty percent
coming off a loss of twenty plus points, which is
(26:09):
basically doesn't happen a ton. But this is, you know,
the bounce back spot, the classic. So since two thousand
and three, betting these spots has a positive Hawaii of
just under sixteen percent, and since twenty twenty it is
thirteen and sixteen ats and it was oo and four
ats last season, So a literal reversal of fortune. And
(26:30):
I think this is literally the worst teams in the
NFL basically on the other side of this potentially, and
you wanting to back them, and I think you're kind
of hitting a bit of a brick wall. But the
thirteen and sixteen since twenty twenty, when you have a
sixteen percent ROI since two thousand and three, and that's
sixteen percent still now, including that thirteen and sixteen just
to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a
(26:52):
change of times. It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (26:54):
That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously
isn't that big. Yeah, twenty nine games just not that big.
It's not a big enough number to make you want
to change how you think about these things philosophically. But
oh and four last year, like Simon, I guarantee we
may we went oh and four on those bets, right,
(27:16):
like we can go back and look, but like I
feel like we are seeing all of the losses that
we had last year just from these three systems that
Evan is talking about.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Definitely Carolina loss.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
But I told you, like, I went back through and
I still can't leave how we avoided Tennessee. It feels
like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
But yeah, it's man. That's astonishing though.
Speaker 3 (27:41):
I mean, is that the first time, Evan you could
find the historical data that there was a year that
it just simply went.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Oh four or oh five.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
I could check, but there's just no chance you had
that type of percentage year to year and you would
have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is
the first lease in that spot. I think the scary
thing is if I took that sixty percent, so teams
with a win percentage over sixty percent, and instead of
a twenty point loss, I took it down to fourteen,
or I took it to nine, which was like more
than one possession. I think you'd see similar data in
(28:11):
terms of just the evening out of the numbers and
it not being so easy to back those teams. So
I just think there's more into the handicap than maybe
there was a little while ago. I think there's just
a lot going on, and also a lot more money
in the market. I think legalization has brought in a
tons of new types of betters that I think might
be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
There's a lot more money in the market. How is
pricing impacting all of this? Are bookmakers getting smarter at
pricing these things and we're not adjusting?
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Yeah, I mean I wrote down these three nuggets pillars
however you want to call them. But I think it's
more of a dynamic pricing, like the odds are getting
worse quicker, and I think the adjustment on players is
already kind of being baked in, Like we've seen some
crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled
out and like the other players props aren't moving like
(29:06):
they used to, because that's something that used to be
a bit of an edge, which is, you know, okay,
we're making the assumption on a so let's get ahead
of b And that's also even terms of like news,
betting is kind of being already baked in as they're
making the assumptions that we are. So and I also
think a little bit of the a lot of these
books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you nose,
(29:27):
which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and
the different companies that are kind of giving you both
options that are getting more popular. But I think that's
part of the problem is you know, you're betting into
minus one, twenty two's, one twenty fives, one twenty eight's
and that just never was the case.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
What about on NFL spreads? When I think about pricing,
I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the jew soe.
I'm thinking about is it at six and a half?
Is it at seven? Is it at seven and a half?
Do we think that they are just getting better at
(30:04):
creating lines that are harder to bet into?
Speaker 4 (30:08):
I think probably. So. I mean, I think, you know,
the NFL is an interesting beast just because of the
amount of popularity and attention and money that goes into
it versus all the other sports. So I don't know
if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten
seven and a half or eight a little while ago,
while now maybe it's you know, seven or six and
(30:30):
a half.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (30:31):
I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when
we bet into this every week, the favorites still get
all the money. The favorites still get the late action.
Except now the favorites are covering. When we used to
feel like the smart guys and the dog used to
get the back door or get the cover in those situations,
It's just not happening anymore.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Yeah, I've definitely have learned, especially since the legalization, not
to let lines scare me off that to me are
so stupid, don't make any sense. I just have to
live and die and take it. And the Biggs ones
that jumped out to me will always be that at
Washington Commander's line against Detroit.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
That line touched ten in that playoff game.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
And this is with Detroit with all those injuries to
their defense, and that stinks. Where I was going to
just hammer that number NonStop. I was like, this is
a really bad number. But I got scared off because
of the year we were just coming off with all
the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines.
And that was one of those games where I luckily
just lean into my model and really trust it. And
(31:27):
I think even by Thursday show, you could hear my
confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have
that Sunday night Monday, like I really didn't where It's like,
what am I missing here?
Speaker 2 (31:36):
Why is this ten?
Speaker 3 (31:37):
How are the Commander's ten points worse than this Detroit
team that all those injuries to their defense, And you know,
that was one of those situations where normal year dogs
are hitting well. For me, that would have been a
big six figure game, Like I really would have gone
to heavy on that game, knowing my model backs it up.
The old timers I talked to are telling me this
is a great spot for this Washington team, like it
(31:59):
all lined up with it and the data lined up.
But just because you're coming off of like that's been
so interesting to me that the books, you know, to me,
they look like they're laying really really interesting numbers and
strong numbers where the public don't even think that way
right their minded. If they see seven and a half,
they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven
and a half. Where me and Chatty the seven a
(32:19):
half in our eyes light up. We're getting a hook
on a dog we like and a really good number.
And of course we got slaughterered on those numbers, like
we got killed on taking those good numbers that we
think are good. But like we're talking about here, the
books they're not going to lose forever. Like that's why
I keep especially friends I have in my regular life,
regular people best sure they've ever had, Some guys over
(32:40):
sixty percent, some guys I know seventy percent, especially on
their pickpools, like best year they ever had, taking these favorites,
and I tell them, oh, get out, retire, just walk away,
like this is it just is not gonna happen again.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
They're like, well, how do you know?
Speaker 3 (32:54):
And it's just what Evan's talking here with historical data
that we've never seen it before.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
So yeah, we could get caught here, and it could
because of the rule changes.
Speaker 3 (33:01):
But it is interesting when you're talking about we keep
having these games and Evan's talking about here where it's like,
how do I not feel like we're getting free points
here and how do we not take it? Especially when
you have a model back in it where it's like
this is off by four or five points.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
I mean. Another way that jumps out to.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Me is that the championship of the College football Finals,
you know, Notre Dame should have been.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
A big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine
and a half?
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Like that Some of the smartest guys I know bet
for a living on college football, had that at three
and a half. Four A fluky touchdown happened at the
end of the game. I think it landed on ten
or something like. It didn't cover the number whatever it is.
Notre Dame didn't cover. These guys do a lot of
Joe public like assholes, right, that was an easy bet,
taking the superior.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
Team against the Notre Dame team that shouldn't have even
been in that.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Game where you got They don't realize how lucky they got. Now,
models historically, long term will always be right in those
type of spots. So it's across all sports where it's
like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs,
and these bounces keep going to public weight the end
of these games, and it's we're trying to put We're like,
we're breaking it all down here today and we're trying
to put numbers on it. There's so many of these
(34:09):
games where it's just not going our way. And I chat,
I talked to you about our regular season. It's like,
how many weeks do we have? Two and three? I
mean we were two and one and how many weeks
heading into that Sunday night show And we end the
week two and three, so it's like, are we terrible
at this? Should I retire? Do I just simply suck
at sports betting? Or do I need to adjust my
models and realize some of those games too are just
(34:31):
bad bounces.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
So it's hard not to overadjust.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
But at the same time, it's like, man, these last
couple of years with these favorites having like you're talking
about here, Man, it's it's spooking the shit out of me,
it really is. Or it's like Week one and two,
I got no problem of betting these dogs, Like that's
historically is always be good for us. Even last year,
the year the Favorites, it was still good for us.
But after that, man, shit favorites in the public chat?
Are we are we switching up? Is this are we
(34:54):
going to live our name the Favorites? Is this about
to be the new show? Well, that's that's.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
What I mean, Like the the numbers. Every single time
I step away from the show, or like and I'm
just in my head thinking about how this should go,
or looking at some of the bet Labs data, or
building new models that are just based on when to bet,
(35:20):
how lines move, those kinds of things. I start to
feel good about where we are going to go next season.
And then by the way, I'm seeing all of this
new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first
time right now as we're talking about it. So the
fact that there has been a slow decline that last
(35:45):
year popped, but we had not really recognized for some
of our very safe, consistent plays that have gone against
the public for years. That's alarming and that scares me
about everything that I've been thinking about building for the
past three months. So yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind
of freaking out right now, and I might have to
(36:09):
go back to square one at this point. That's how
I feel about it.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
The only thing I'll say is the only thing I'll
say is this, I think the most glaring stat So
we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest,
that's the show, like, that's kind of how this was built.
But I think this is the one that kind of
got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites
were positive from an ROI perspective in twenty twenty three
(36:37):
and twenty twenty four, and that was actually the first
time we had ever seen that happen. In back to
back years. I went back to about two thousand in
terms of I went I looked even further in terms
of data. So the fact that and moneyline favorites take
so much to become positive because of you know, one
loss takes you back a lot in terms of the
big So to me, back to back years of positivity
(36:59):
on the moneyline, ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL,
that is a bit of a turn for me because
I usually see, Okay, a favorite covers here, a favorite
covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was
a little alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs
on the money line, and it was one of the
worst years you could ever think of for that feeling great?
Speaker 1 (37:18):
That got the Cowboys at plus seven on the money
line a plus two four.
Speaker 4 (37:21):
Well, it hurts, is gonna you know, Tush push first drive.
We're gonna all feel great. It's gonna be fair, that's
all right.
Speaker 1 (37:27):
The back door, which we love game planning for, feels
like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us?
Speaker 4 (37:36):
Yeah, So underdogs trailing by ten plus points at any
point of the game covered at a twenty one percent
rate last season, The year prior it was twenty percent,
so pretty consistent. That was the first time in over
a decade we saw back to back years though, of
that low of a percentage. So in terms of where
(37:57):
we're used to, a team falls beyond, like we've seen
in the NBA what feels like a million times this
postseason and ends up coming back and either wins the
game or covers the game or some crazy statistic just
isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think
we're used to.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Now.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
It's probably the difference of about five percent four percent,
depending on the average per season overall year to year,
But when you talk about the last two years and
the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this
story because I think that's what we're used to. We're
used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated
(38:34):
as the week goes by, and then a majority of
the time or a decent percentage of the time them
coming through the back door and coming into the winning
percentage of underdogs at the end of the season, And
at twenty percent, you're just not seeing that. So I
think it's a part of the story.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either
hope or false hope, which is the books don't lose,
they always make money, right, And so even like what
we're talking about with DraftKings and FanDuel and their earnings
calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and
(39:13):
changing projections and outlooks, like, is this a false hope
that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to
turn back around or is everybody going to have to recalibrate?
Speaker 3 (39:29):
Oh Man, Like Kevin said, this is a defining season
in many ways, but I feel like it's.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Defining decade in many ways. Right, this is going to
be a slow burn for me.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
And you know, like I joke, we all a time, Chad,
this isn't a job that I know guys.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Most guys that do this job eventually get burned out.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
They find something else and they go down a different
path because sports betting is so hard and you have
to consistently be tinkering and update your model and you
can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways like
you're talking on especially here, and you know, it's it's
not as simple as we simply just bet the dog,
especially in those spots but our hardest job chat is
we have to pick five games every week, So one
(40:07):
or two of those games we're gonna bet it. Because
we love the number. The models back that we love
the spot. We have to start really.
Speaker 2 (40:13):
Challenging ourselves that is this actually a good spot? Is
this what we want to be doing?
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Where Evan's giving us these numbers here, that's telling you
that you know, it's it's kind of a favorites world
and because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league
want to bet.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
Infit the offenses?
Speaker 3 (40:28):
And that that kind of mean to me is what's
jumping out here where It's like Evan's telling you, if
you get a ten point lead, it's really tough for
these teams to catch up because the offense to these
other teams are just so dynamic now, where like, even
if we do get that back door score, who's to
say that team's not going to get down there on
our short field and score their own field goal or
touchdown and once again we're not covering.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
So yeah, this is a show.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more
of these numbers from Evan because it's it's a good
reminder too to play during the season to ourselves because
it's it's changed.
Speaker 2 (40:57):
Jad.
Speaker 3 (40:58):
We always joke we used to force our halves to
put one favorite in. We now might have to flip
and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs and try
to go three favorites or something. But like you said,
I don't want to overadjust yet. But I did make
big adjustments on into the playoffs, and people saw it
like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and
I had to really be pushed to want to take
a dog. I mean, hell, I took both chalk home
(41:21):
favorites in the AFC Championship game, and I heard a
lot of shit that week. It's like, you think it's
just gonna be that easy, egos and the Chiefs, and
that's the way it's been for the public people. It's
really been that easy. So yeah, hearing these numbers get
broken down, you know, my fear is Chad that I
overadjust and like Evan just said, it coming back around
(41:41):
this season me and you miss that golden whale, Like
that's what I don't.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
Want to miss here where I don't think we will.
Speaker 3 (41:48):
I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially
midway through the season, in week twelve and eleven, you know,
we'll say, Okay, let's go back to what we were
doing that was so good for us the previous years.
Where last year, I remember in week twelve and eleven,
I mean you were look at each other being.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
Like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites? What are
we supposed to do here?
Speaker 3 (42:06):
And all of a sudden, I think, Evan, we had
a run there of five six straight weeks of favorites
covering in the middle of the season, which just not happened.
Because that's why I keep trying to talk about the
sports books. They the NFL is their baby, this is
their most important sport. The money that comes in on
this sport isn't It's out of this world compared to
other sports, right, this is the driver of the marketell
(42:28):
I go to the sports book all the time in
my off season. The difference between the NFL season and
others and the other seasons is palpable.
Speaker 2 (42:37):
So, yeah, Chad, this is I don't want to overadjust.
Speaker 3 (42:41):
But I'm telling you, the more I talk to bookmakers,
it feels like they're feeling confident, they're not over worried
about it. Maybe we should do the same but it's
not in my nature not to be worried and not
to freak out about it.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
My feeling on anxiety generally is it is the most
powerful tool to improve, honestly, because if you use it properly,
then you're going to do the work you need to
do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a
better position to succeed. If you use it negatively and
it keep you up at night, it just paralyzes you
(43:14):
and shuts you down and makes you not be able
to function. It's terrible. But I actually love the power
of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to
work and things that you can control, because it will
fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the
(43:34):
wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we
get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about
a bunch of different areas where we have historically focused.
Can you give us some examples where other sort of
(43:55):
conventional gambling wisdom is now losing better's money.
Speaker 4 (44:00):
So I think a classic to anytime longtime NFL gambler
is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind
of already talked about a little bit. But this is
just is a little more simple. So I looked at
all teams that met this betting criteria. Teams with a
losing record, who are underdogs who are just coming off
a loss in general, classic ugly dog situation. If you
(44:21):
bet every team in that situation last two seasons, you'd
have a negative ROI of almost nine percent two seasons.
Nine percent, pretty damn bad. That is the worst two
year stretch in our bet Labs database again since two
thousand and three numbers. So again pretty simple here, that
is teams with a losing record, underdogs off a loss,
(44:43):
spread doesn't matter. Those are just the three criterias. You'd
be down almost nine percent. And if you go even
deeper there so really ugly dogs six plus point dogs,
so instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of
six points or more. It honestly gets even worse. And
the thing is you want to look at least I did.
I looked at moneyline results, So between twenty thirteen and
(45:06):
twenty eighteen, which is basically pre paspa minus six point
one percent ROI twenty two point nine percent straight up.
So that is twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen, I'll say
that again minus six point one percent ROI twenty three
percent straight up. Since twenty nineteen, it is minus eighteen
(45:26):
percent ROI and eighteen percent straight up. So that is
about three times worse on the ROI and about five
percent less on the straight up win percentage. And we're
just talking about blanketed here, big underdogs off a loss,
bad team, And that is pretty much what a lot
(45:46):
of us tend to at least look at early week
to kind of filter flag, you know, trigger some signals,
and they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment.
So I felt like that was a good signal of
what the heck is happening here.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
Yeah, I actually wonder the passpo line of demarcation and legalization.
We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about
how much more money is coming into the market, how
the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right,
and they probably think less and less about what professional
(46:26):
betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off
of a five hundred dollars bet, even if it's someone
else's betting ten thousand dollars on the other side, if
the five hundred is smart money, I think that's having
a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon,
then maybe we've been accounting for a little bit.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
I would say the biggest change to for me would be,
you know, I was living in Vegas, there were just
so few guys who did this for a living, especially
bet on the NFL for a living, because it's such
a hard sport to do.
Speaker 2 (47:05):
Now, Chad, it's a whole different world.
Speaker 3 (47:07):
Like there's guys who I never would have taken serious,
being the douchebag I was back.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Then, being like this not a real better Now, No,
this dude's legit. Like he's put in the work. You know.
Speaker 3 (47:17):
I see him there all the time in the sports book.
The more I talk to them, the more I respect them.
And this time goes along. You're like, Okay, it's a
new wave of this younger generation, people my age, I
should say, that have come to this market with their
own computer models where it just was never liked that, right,
you never really saw it like that in Vegas, And
I like it. But like you're saying, it's changed the
(47:39):
market in a lot of ways and a lot of
things we joked about, especially when they legalize it, of
you know, there's gonna be a lot of games where
we get a ton of free points. We've been getting
that chet, but it's not been coming through. And I
especially would have loved having to do just primetime games
because you know, some of my best runs have been
those underdaw under the unders on these primetime games. Like
(48:02):
I've I've just had a really good run, especially since
the legalization of sports betting, just simply betting unders in
these primetime games.
Speaker 2 (48:10):
And you know we had that one.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Year, was that two years ago, Evan, where we were
like seventy percent betting the under in prime time years.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
It was crazy.
Speaker 3 (48:16):
But I remember last year came back around, right, we
had a bunch of overs in prime time games. So
like we can just keep talking about it. It's like I
once again, I don't overad just but we're seeing the
public even they're betting these lines up. These offenses have
been coming for the favorites, and these offenses on these
for these favorites have been coming through for them, where
the overs last year came through for them, and same
(48:38):
with the favorites.
Speaker 2 (48:39):
So I don't know if you have numbers on that,
do you, Evan?
Speaker 4 (48:41):
Yeah, I just pulled so last season exactly five hundred.
So basically, totals in night games thirty three and thirty
three in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three they
were seventy nine and forty eight to the under almost
sixty three percent. So basically, I think you nailed it.
I think it was Favorites creating those totals that should
(49:05):
have gone under to over the underdog's not covering, and
it happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically
pushed it about twelve percent last year.
Speaker 3 (49:13):
I mean, you just heard that Chats. That's crazy the
difference from year to year. And that's why I keep
trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly.
Like we with the rule change to the kickoff, we
are living in a weird time period where all these
lines were all screwed up, and we're gonna look back
on it and just be like it was that simple teams,
better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields more often than
(49:35):
not because of the new kickoff rules. And you know,
those unders killed me. But I remember thinking it might
have been week five or six, adjust I didn't come
on the show every week saying bet these product time
owners because of that I was like, something's simply different
here where these games we're not getting extra points or
we're not getting the free points were used to. These
games are going to go over because something has changed.
(49:56):
And unfortunately it took me all season to figure out
that kickoff. Man, it changed so much last season, and
just there, Evan, given those numbers, really jumps out to
me how much it did change it.
Speaker 1 (50:06):
Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again, and I
think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now is
that it's going to change it to the detriment of
what we saw last year. I think that teams will
more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking
(50:28):
off to putting the team in a position of running
it back because the penalty is going to be so
much greater. It's going to be even harder to stop
teams because the field's going to be even shorter. Number one.
Number two, the one thing that worries me, assignment about
what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one
(50:49):
year sample and a lot of the stuff that Evan
just pointed out is multi year changes that where we've
seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down down,
that has nothing to do with kickoffs, and that's the
harder thing to unpack.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
It does. But last year was that what I've been
talking about on steroids.
Speaker 3 (51:08):
Like those other years, the margins were much smaller, and
we've already tald about there's other years the stuff that
makes sense.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
For those years where the practice rate has dropped.
Speaker 3 (51:17):
And you can really dive into this whole thing if
people want to, Like I know proso have done it,
but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling less has
affected a lot of these teams, especially the difference between
a well coached team and teams that put on the
pads during practice during certain weeks and teams that simply
do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if
people want to look into that stuff. But what you're
(51:39):
talking about, going back chat, I feel like is also something.
I mean, you've been harping on about these coaches and
these fourth downs, like we've really if you go back
and you look through even these last couple of years,
especially these last four or five years since COVID, the
upticking coaches going forward on fourth down on their own
side of the field is greatly up than it was
in the twenty ten, and that is something that you
(52:01):
could attribute more to these favorites. But I just wanted
to bring up the prime time underthink is people have
asked me about it. Why we really didn't talk about
it last season. I was like, what is there to
talk about it? It's a bad bet, Like there was
no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season, like
we said, I'm hoping the books ad just because of
the kickoff Chad, maybe every week we'll get an.
Speaker 2 (52:21):
Extra four or five points.
Speaker 3 (52:22):
But you know, last year what hung true to me
was Evan always come on here and talk about the
fifty point line right when the total is above fifty points.
Historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if
Evan has the numbers of it. Felt the same thing
last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every
week like it was in the before, where you know,
certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it,
(52:43):
where it's like, no, these two offenses can hit this
number where usually we talk, we joke all the time,
like you see a fifty one, you blindly take that under. Historically,
long term that's a winner. So once again is because
of the kickoff chats because of the fourth down ruling.
Speaker 2 (52:58):
Is it all of it all mixed in one pot together.
Speaker 3 (52:59):
It's just something that jumped out to me where it's
like these simple bets I don't need to put a
ton of work into now that's gonna be in another
couple hours a week added into my regime of diving too,
these different games and these numbers, just because I can't
blindly bet the under on fifty one that I used to,
Is that true, Evan?
Speaker 4 (53:16):
Yeah, So at fifty or higher, twenty twenty one to
twenty twenty three, fifty nine percent, sixty four forty four.
Last year thirteen and twelve five hundred didn't matter all
in the air. So yeah, I mean last season that
number didn't turn to anything. You know, three years prior,
you'd be up almost thirteen percent ROI.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad,
A lot of patterns.
Speaker 1 (53:41):
I actually wonder in the next year, assignment, will you
spend more time during this offseason focusing on fourth down
and how to find the signals and the noise on
fourth down conversion or what happened with the kickoff?
Speaker 2 (54:00):
I already I'm done with a kickoff.
Speaker 3 (54:02):
I put a ton of time in that receis the
season ended jat like I usually go away, I didn't
do any of that. I literally just dove right back
into it cause I was losing my shit, especially in
the middle of the season about it, where it's like,
why can't I just this?
Speaker 2 (54:14):
What am I missing on this rule? And what's the
biggest difference here?
Speaker 3 (54:17):
I told you the biggest difference to me these last
couple of years has been the influx of these mobile
quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches
call these fourth down place because that is such a
huge difference, right.
Speaker 2 (54:30):
You have so many different options.
Speaker 3 (54:32):
You can either do a readoption to the running back
where the quarterback can keep it and running, or they
can just take it out of the running backs belly
and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen
these last five, six, seven years, that really changed these
fourth down offenses where it's.
Speaker 2 (54:44):
Such a big deal. So I'm probably with you.
Speaker 3 (54:47):
I'll probably spend the next you know, month of May
a little bit of June dive even more to these
fourth down offenses. And you know, I've watched every single
snap Daniels took on fourth downs, and I'm really excited
Kingsbury does in year two of him because every play
they called for him on fourth down was the perfect
call of the perfect exact time. That's why me and
(55:07):
you kept yelling for regression. It took a long ass time,
I think, into the NFC Championship game for that aggression
to hit on fourth down because every play they had called,
Daniels always made their right read. Either gave it to
the running back, hit the first read and Terry McLaurin,
or he pulled it in and ranted himself. Never did
he make the wrong read. What was it eighty percent
they were on fourth down, So it was just I mean,
(55:28):
it's incredible going back and watching that because you know,
I like to pick guys apart, because I know what
this is what the NFL coaches are gonna do. Like
every team the NFC is, all they're doing is watching
Daniels tape. Like they don't care about Dak or Russell
Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hurts. Everyone's just so
locked in on Daniels because he was such a game
fajer last year and that that to meet chat would
be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on
(55:50):
these fourth downs on short fields? What is the biggest
change these coaches have made with a new kickoff rule?
Speaker 1 (55:56):
Simon Evan, This may be the most important episode we
ever do, and amazingly We'll return with our next episode
of The Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page.
Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.
(56:18):
Feedback is a gift Until next time, Love you. Action
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