May 8, 2025 • 40 mins
Hours before the selection of a new pope at the Sistine Chapel, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcomed back Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer to provide the history of betting on this sacral event. That history stretches back more than 500 years, and Dabbundo dives deep into all the angles in his highly-entertaining article this week. Hear their thoughts on the candidates, the process and Simon's checkered Catholic past. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast part of the
Volume and Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the
Action Network. Today. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, my campadre might be a ff professional better,
Simon Hunter Rosimon.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, Chad, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
I am so psyched for today's episode, which came together
quickly because it's very rare that you get an opportunity
in which the entire world's attention is on a singular event,
in this case, electing the new Pope and the conclave
that is happening right now, and it also happens to
(00:50):
coincide with a massive, worldwide, historic betting market. But that's
what we have today right now, the biggest betting event
in the world is trying to figure out how you
can make money off of who is going to be
the next pope. And by the way, this goes back
(01:12):
five centuries. People have been betting on who will be
the next pope, going back to the early fifteen hundreds.
I cannot wait to discuss this with you, Simon and
have everybody find out what your confirmation name was. But
(01:35):
we're going to bring in our guests because it is
incredibly difficult to really understand and handicap who the next
Pope is going to be? So our very own Judas,
a man who walked away from action, joined the Ringer
(01:56):
and today has a fantastic story up on the Ringer
called who Wants the Smoke? Trying to predict the unpredictable
Papal Conclave. A man who calls himself the Holy Trinity
of Italian, American, Catholic and Gambler. Welcome back to the show,
(02:19):
Anthony de Bundo.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I'll be honest, I did not expect to be called
back to talk about the Papal conclave. And if you
had told me that two weeks ago, even four days ago,
I probably would have laughed at you. But I'm happy
to be here, excited to break down this incredible event
that really we only get a handful of times in
our entire lives.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
This is only the This is probably the second one
for you, and thirdnman, third, right, third one. So I
guess this would be the fourth one for me because
I was alive when John Paul the Second got the gig,
and then Benedict, and then Francis and now whoever will
(02:59):
be next, which we're going to determine today. I'm super
excited because I did not know this until we came
on the air. Anthony Catholic, Simon Catholic, Matt Mitchell went
to Catholic school. Gif for Gould, producer went to Catholic school.
(03:20):
One Jew on this show who does not really know
anything about Catholicism. So I'm excited to get educated as
we talk about this. By the way, don't forget everybody
at Real Chad Millman. Go subscribe. Find lots of content
there from the show. Other stuff gambling history of which
(03:41):
this is a core part. You can wager on who
the next Pope will be, and a number of unregulated
offshore sports books. We like to keep things legal and
above board. On this show, we're going to be referencing Calshi,
a prediction market that is legal in all fifty US states,
(04:06):
election betting, fed rate betting, basketball trading. They call it trading.
They don't call it betting, but they actually allow you
to buy and sell positions on practically everything newsworthy, from
pop culture and news headlines to multiple markets related to
the announcement of the next Pope. If you haven't signed
(04:28):
up for Calshi yet, use code action at sign up
for a ten dollars bonus. Link to do that quickly
and easily is in the description build some papal positions.
All right, before we even get to it, let's define
(04:49):
your Catholic bona fides here, because we don't want people
to think you're being sacrilegious or inauthentic. Signon, tell us
how good a Catholic you really?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I was not a good Catholic in any sense of
the word, but I've been. I started going to church
like any good nineties family. My parents made me, my
three brothers go to church from I want to say,
pre k like they would stick me in this like
Sunday classroom until seventh eighth grade until I got my
confirmation brother. So I went to Sunday Mass for I
don't know ten straight years, which looking back is insane
(05:24):
that this is before cell phones or anything. You just
stick some kids on a wooden bench and just being
the most boring place in the world for an hour
while people just sing around you. So God, God bless
my parents. But yeah, I got a confirmation name. My
name is in Saint chach Is. British people old fashioned.
You used to have two middle names. So my full
name with my Hunter as last name is Simon Edward
(05:48):
Thomas Damien Hunter. So Damien is my confirmation name. There
is a Saint Damien out there, and as a little
shitthead seventh grader, I made that my confirmation name to
get back in my teacher who just God bless this
woman just would just absolutely hated me. Her name was
missus Dickerson. I don't know if she's still around, but
(06:08):
obviously with that last name and me being a little
smart ass, it was it was a long eight years
of having me and her CCD classes. So yeah, been
a Catholic and still to this day. You know, we
still go to the Sunday Mass. Like there's two I
would say, people like me who are fake religious people
say Catholics we go to Sunday Mass and Easter Sunday.
(06:30):
Probably haven't been chatting about eight ten years, I'm gonna know,
but I have, I have had said them, did that
someday I might get married and I might have a wife.
That's like we gotta go. So if I meeting nice Jew,
I'll go to temple. If not, I'll probably back in
the church. So I'm trying to hold out as long
as I can till I have to go back.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Brother by the way, says I got to Philly guys
with me today. One of my favorite always Sunnies. I
think it's season one. It's like episode it could be
episode three, four or five, whatever, almost an entire episode
about whether or not you can say the word Jew
(07:11):
or if like all of a sudden that becomes anti Semitic,
which was just a classic classic episode. All right, debundo,
give us your Catholic bona fides, so we know that
none of us are going to hell. We come to
this from an honest, proactive, fatable, positive place.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Debatable. I you know, it's definitely not.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
It's frowned upon by some in the Catholic Church to
bet on anything, but especially the papal outcome. But yeah,
I went to Catholic school in kindergarten, went to public
school for the rest of my education, but I was
an altar boy for a few years in kind of.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
I think it was like sixth and seventh grade.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
I made my confirmation, all the sacraments of my communion,
and you know, maybe one day we'll see I'll get
married in the Catholic Church.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
But it's a part of my family.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
It's not a huge part of my family, and so
it's something that that kind of comes and goes. My Catholicism.
Definitely have my fair share of issues with the Church.
We won't get into, but I think that it is
a fascinating experience to grow up a Catholic.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Well, in the Bible, I believe it says in some
form I might be paraphrasing here, money is the root
of all evil? Am I correct?
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Yes, voice correct technically?
Speaker 1 (08:25):
So what are we doing here? I feel like we're
just we're raised.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
It's not even about money, it's about raising mistakes.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I'm going to hell.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
That is true.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
We would have been ext communicated from the church for
this if we did it for a period of about
three hundred and twenty years.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Well, thank god, whatever Pope decided it was okay. Has
modernized the times. And that's really what we're here to
talk about today. Will the conclave, Will the cardinals when
the white smoke billows have chosen a pope who is
along the progressive and liberal lane that Francis has been
(09:03):
on during he had been on during his reign, which
was what twelve years, will they go more conservative Anthony
before we even get into that. Your story's great, What
did you learn about the history of betting on the
pope that makes us feel better about this?
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Yeah, so it starts and as early as we can tell,
dates back to fifteen oh three. So in Rome when
they were choosing the new pope, kind of like if
you saw the movie Gladiator two, where in the movie
they're like horse trading on the street, betting on who
they think that the winner of the Gladiators games are
going to be. It's similar to that, and that it
was kind of how betting worked, where you could have
(09:44):
brokers and Roman banking houses that would take bets on
who the next quote was going to be. And you know,
back then it was just always a much smaller process.
It wasn't the same you know, massive conclave that they
have now super secretive. The oath of secrecy has become
a newer thing, and so back then, I'm sure there
was a lot of insider trading. There was a lot
(10:05):
of who knew a guy who knew a guy who
knew a guy's cousin. But basically the church decided we
really don't want this, because in fifteen ninety one they
said we don't want anybody betting on this, So we
are now saying you are excommunicated from the church if
you decide you're gonna bet on the pope. But they
(10:28):
lifted it in nineteen eighteen, so we're back.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Technically, we're back, baby, But the reality is that it
kind of one and ten years of betting on this pope,
but it.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
Never really left because you can go back to nineteen
oh three, the Italian government was offering bets on when
the sick Pope Leo the thirteenth would die, so you
can literally bet on like will this guy live for
X amount of time? So clearly like betting on pope
outcomes is something that even when the Church didn't like
it, it was still happening regardless, which is similar to you
know how betting works on sports in America, right, It
(11:00):
happened long before it became legal, but now we just
get to talk about it more openly.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
It doesn't go away, it just happens somewhere else. That's
really the gist of the story for betting. Just about
every other device that has ever been that anyone has
ever tried to legislate, eradicate, or control, it's just going
to happen, water finds a crack, that's just how it goes. Simon,
(11:25):
give us your take. Is there a wise guy market
that you're hearing about amongst all your scumbag Philly friends
that is going on for the pope right now?
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Unfortunately I have not if those tax messages I'm being
left out of. Like I've heard a little bit about
it in some chatter, but that's honestly in my own
personal life, not from better. So, like we just talked about,
this is a market that is real, but I don't
think it's one that, like you know, pros dedicate their
lives too, because like we just said, it's once in
every twelve years, could be once every twenty five five years.
(12:00):
It's just such a niche market. But you know me, chat,
I'll bet on anything. I've done deadpools before, so like
this is nothing to me. And question for anything though,
is you know, being on the East Coast, what time
do they burn the paper? Like is it one o'clock,
two o'clock East coast? Like when do that? When does
the smoke happen? Is that just a random time every
(12:21):
day or is it a set time that they burn?
And let us know the black smoke or the white smoke.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, so they have the first day, which was Wednesday,
first day the conclave. They gather in the evening and
they have the first vote, so the first vote already happened.
As of now, we're recording this Thursday morning. The first
vote already happened and it was black smoke. So no
new pope, no two thirds majority. The second day and
every day they're off after So starting on Thursday, there
(12:47):
will be four votes per day, two in the morning,
so they've already happened. We're recording this eleven am. It's
five pm in Rome. They've already had the two morning votes.
Then they'll have the evening votes if necessary. Then after
the fourth round of voting they break for the day.
They come back the third day. So we don't know
when the smoke will turn white, but it could be
as early as tonight as this afternoon really, because it'll
(13:07):
be around three four o'clock PM Eastern, which was yesterday.
It was three pm Eastern that they put out the
black smoke. I suspect it'll be around the same time
again today, So around three four o'clock Eastern you'll get
the smoke.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
So your advice to people listen to this would be
whatever you give out here, try to get to this
market attack and now, because it could happen literally today.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Pope Francis was elected on the second day.
Speaker 3 (13:28):
Oh, traditionally it's been longer, but it's gotten shorter as
time has gone on.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
So usually it's like three or four days.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
You have to remember, like you're being sequestered, right, So
these cardinals, as much as the sacred process, they don't.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Want to be sitting in the conclave.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
You know, there was a joke about how they're raw
dogging it without their phones, Like they don't want to
be doing this for months on end, weeks on end.
They want to get to the solution as well, so
or doing the.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
One thing we know they're not doing is checking Instagram
because their devices all I believe the kids.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
I believe the kids call it raw dogging it.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
If you're going to go through a long period of
time with no electronic device.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Yeah right, well they're of a certain age. Yeah it's
not sixteen hundred. There's other things to do.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Now.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
I want to explain a little bit at what Calshi
is so people understand when you're going to play on
the platform. What you're really doing. It's essentially a trading platform,
and you're trading what are called contracts. You're buying and selling.
You're making a bit on a price on a market,
you're selling a market. That's how you're operating on these platforms.
(14:31):
I think they're fascinating. I think it's the direction a
lot of this is going. Everyone should go and check
it out. I've played with it a ton, and you know,
for the book that I've talked about on the show.
I think prediction markets over the next two to three
years are going to become more and more influential. I
have no doubts that, especially when we get to a
(14:53):
twenty twenty eight presidential election. There are analysts on the
desks for all the major broadcasts that are looking at
what is happening in the election. From the perspective of
the prediction markets, it's a great source of truth on
what people with actual money on the line are doing.
(15:14):
It cleans up I think a lot of the noise
from the polling data that is becoming less and less
accurate and reliable. So I'm a huge fan of what
these platforms are doing. They are now offering a lot
of different markets in sports. But like I said, you'll go,
you'll check it out. You'll see the Pope, You'll see
what's the Fed gonna do. You can see markets about
(15:35):
what Elon Musk is going to do. You can see
markets about Tesla. It's like any market that anyone has
a decision on or an opinion on, can be posted
and then bought and sold. It's really really fascinating. So Anthony,
in your story, explain how the makeup of the cardinals
has changed during Francis's time, because I do you think
(16:00):
that's going to have a huge impact on how voting
may play out.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Yeah, so you hear about like stacking the courts, packing
the courts, Francis did a little bit of conclave cardinal packing.
One hundred and eight of the one hundred and thirty
three members are new and appointed by Francis, so this
is their first conclave. So many of these people they've
never met. They've been doing a lot of listening sessions
and conversations before the doors were even locked to kind
(16:27):
of get to know each other, to get to understand
the different factions that are forming. And so this really
is incredibly uncertain. As a result of that, because it
can go two ways. One hand, you could say, hey,
they're new, they're more likely to listen to the quote
unquote elders. Or you could say they're new they could
want to continue and push the church even further in
the progressive direction. And so I think there's a lot
(16:48):
of questions about how that will actually manifest itself. But
one thing that is certainly true is that the makeup
geographically is vastly different than it was twelve years ago.
Europe used to be the center of power of the
Catholic Church.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
It still is, but much less now.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
So Africa has more cardinals than it ever has, South
America and Asia all have seen significant increases in their
percentage of the vote, and so those voters have more
weight now to throw around. Whereas it used to just
be all right, Europe would kind of just pick their guy.
Usually it was an Italian, we had a German, we
had a Polish guy. But now with you know, Francis's
(17:28):
election and now his reign, the church is much more
worldwide than it used to be. And if they want
to continue that, they could end up picking somebody who's
not in Europe.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
This is where it starts to get interesting. The politics
of the church really are in play here because Francis,
as I said at the beginning, has been considered to
be a more liberal, more progressive pope. There are players
(18:03):
in the church who would like the church to lean
more conservative. But to me, in your story, the way
you handicapped it, there were only one or two people
who really had a chance as conservative sort of backers
to become the next pope. Break it down sort of
(18:27):
how the moderate liberal conservative factions can influence this.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
It is hard because you know, the way we think
about politics as Americans is inherently a little different than
how religious politics work. And then how like even in Europe,
how that works because there's different kinds of theory, right,
Because you could be a progressive on certain issues that
the church takes up, like how do you feel about
mass immigration? How do you feel about climate change? Which
(18:56):
were things that Francis would be considered very liberal on,
but then you could also be more conservative on like
the actual Bible, the religious text, the theology of it all,
And so you might not see yourself and you could
take multiple different positions.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
And so I think that's where it gets a little
bit tricky.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
When you try to just like line people up on
a scale from one to the other. But certainly like
I think the most conservative front runner is Peter Erdo
of from Hungary, who has been a key figure in
the conservative block. But he's not like if you watch
the movie and I made this joke in the movie,
like the conservative guy to Desco. I don't know if
you've seen Conclave, but he's like this very like loud, bombastic,
(19:36):
like my way of the Highway type that is not
really how Erdo is characterized. He's seen as kind of
a consensus builder. And so we've seen a right word
shift along a lot of political institutions in Europe, especially
elections have gone the way of right wing parties. But
this is not an election of like your average Catholic voter.
This is people again that France has picked. And so
(19:57):
if Francis's influence is going to away on this conclave,
and he seemed to be pretty well respected by the
majority of the of the voters in this conclave, then
how do you form a two thirds consensus without people
who liked him and want his legacy to continue. That's
where I think it does get hard for the more
conservative candidates.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
I like airdo because you can say post hoc airdough
propter hoc and and it almost feels like you're back
in the West wing. That, by the way, is Latin
for after this therefore, because of this, but we did
a little wordplay, it's airgo, not airdo. Simon Matt Mitchell
(20:40):
is probably going to cut that out plain to about
one other persons same. Here's what I like about this
from a completely from a handicapping exercise. There is literally
(21:02):
zero information available, right and unless you're the you know,
Vatican bureau chief for the New York Times or the
Washington Post or the Guardian or any other international media outlet,
there's no sourcing. None of those reporters are in the conclave,
(21:23):
and a lot of those reporters have probably never met
the cardinals who are coming, because a lot of the
cardinals have never met each other because they're coming from outposts.
So it's almost like this is a clean slate handicapping opportunity, right, Like,
how would you even you say you're bet on anything?
How do you even go about trying to figure out
how to make an intelligent trade on this?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Well, it feels like the more I read about it
feels like there are angles to attack with this. So
that's all I'm interested where Anthey's gonna say about it,
because it's like it seems like people who are smart
and like him have done a ton of research on
this all because I had no idea about out them,
you know, having more guys outside of Europe, because what
he just said is true to me, where it's just
all these old guys who are all in Europe picking
(22:07):
their buddies to be the next pope. Like that's just
always the way it's always been. So this year is interesting, right.
We have a couple of long shot odds that I
can't wait to hear Anthony dive into. That's like, is
there a good value there? Like cause we're, like you
just said, it's a lot of unknown, Like there's a
lot of hearsay taking angles because you know, I mean
Matt Mitchell sent his stuff about guy's body weight and
(22:28):
his skinny popes, and it's like, I love it all.
It's people are just grasping his strolls here. But there's
value that you can you can take these weird angles
to make these weird bets, and I mean it could
be hitting a huge home run like there's some crazy
long shot odds here on some of these popes.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Thirty three to one. That were the odds on Francis
in twenty thirteen at one book.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Well look that's the eifteen favorite, right, he was thirty
three to one because there had never.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Been a pope from South America, So people were like,
why would we why would we see this guy as
a favorite?
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Ben Bendict was Benedict didn't have short odds, you know,
John Paul didn't have short odds. They never do, so
it's almost like you need to discount the top.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Of the board.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
But for purposes of housekeeping, give us like the current
odds and a little bit of background on each person
so people can understand what they're looking at when they
go on to Kelshi and they see sort of some
of these markets.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Yeah, so I'll say right now, I think there's a
clear top five consensus on who the people really should
be here. The favorite, and he's been kind of the
favorite since the beginning is Pietro Powerline.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
He's Italian.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
He would be considered kind of the moderate ish version,
a continuation of Francis. The main reason he's seen is
the favorite one.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
He has the most.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Connections to the other cardinals, right, he's kind of been
there the longest, kind of the elder statesman of the Vatican.
And he was also the Secretary of State of the Vatican,
which is like the deputy Pope that they call him,
and so he's, you know, very close to Francis, very
close to how things work in the Vatican.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
He's kind of the insider, moderate.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Continuation choice if the Church could go that way, and
I don't think anybody would be surprised. The second favorite
is Luis Antonio Tagle and he is they call him
the Asian Francis. He's from the Philippines. There's never been
an Asian pope. He is a pretty progressive guy who
has spent time both at his outpost in the Global South,
which is I think an interesting part of this developing country,
(24:21):
kind of similar to what Francis's path was to the papacy.
But he's also been in the Vatican too, so he's
served in the Vatican in an administrative role as well.
So he's kind of been around and he's at twenty
five percent right now, Paroline's at thirty three. So those
are the two favorites I would say, the buzzy dark
horse that everybody likes is Pierre Battista Pizza Bala, which
(24:44):
is quite an Italian name. He's gotten a lot of
juice because he got put in a really tough situation.
He's a young guy who is now the first person
serving in the Catholic Church in Jerusalem, which he got
the job one week before the October seventh attack by Hamas,
so he gets thrown into a war zone basically week
(25:06):
one on the job and has made a lot of
positive headway and headlines and gained a lot of respect
I think on both sides of that war because of
how he's handled it. He even offered himself up as
a hostage to say trade me for these hostages, I'll
you know, be taken in. And I think a lot
of people like him. He is too young, though, and
that is one thing we've seen where like, if you're
(25:27):
really young, the pa Pole conclave is like, eh, you know,
we don't want you to serve for thirty years. We
want like, you know, eight to ten years and then
we'll pick somebody else. Because if you pick somebody and
he serves for a really long time and you don't
like him, now the church has gone very far and
very long without the next conclave, so it is a
bit of a power grab. And then Matteo Zoopie. We
(25:47):
talked about Aerdo. He's on the mix too, Mateo Zoope.
It would be the progressive insider choice. He's the archbishop
of Bologna. He is a very close friend of Francis.
They call him Don Matteo. He's well liked in those
another insider choice as well.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Have you gone back and tried to calculate the average
odds for I don't even know if there were odds
for John Paul or how we would find them, but
what were the average odds for Benedict? What were the
what were the average what was the average ods for
Benedict and Francis? And who's in that position? Because as
(26:25):
we've said, the favorites never win and it ends up
being someone who nobody was thinking about, which I think
is inherent in the process, right because they need a
two thirds majority and immediately people start jockeying and peeling
off votes. And again all my knowledge about what happens
(26:47):
in a conclave is coming from the movie Conclave, where
you know, like someone is politicking behind the scenes, so
who's in that sweet spot of odds that we should
be looking at.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
Yeah, so I have the last five papal elections and
shout out to the smoke filled room substack written by
Brendan Higgins. He has done some incredible research and honestly
was a huge part of the piece writing this. So
Francis was seen as thirty two to one. He was
not the favorite. Three to one was Benedict in two
(27:22):
thousand and five, he was the favorite twenty five percent.
There were no odds listed for John Paul the Second
or first, so they weren't even on the board and
they got picked. And that was a weird conclave because
John Paul the First gets elected, he dies almost immediately.
There was a lot of conspiracies about that. Then John
Paul the Second comes in right after him. He serves
(27:42):
for almost thirty years, so they were not on the board.
And then John the twenty third in nineteen fifty eight
he was the favorite.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
So this list has ten names.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
On the board going back to fifteen oh three, which
we have odds for. Only three of them were favorites,
and you know, three of the last four were not
seen as top of the board picks I think if
you're looking for the Benedict type candidate, or sorry, the
Francis type candidate.
Speaker 4 (28:08):
It's probably toag Lay.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
But the thing is, we all just saw the Francis
thing happen, so now everybody's kind of hypothesizing that tog
Lay is the new Francis. So if this were twenty thirteen,
tog Lea's odds would have been what Francis's odds were.
But now we're kind of a little smarter to it
that they might want to look forward. And their membership
in Asia has been growing pretty big, pretty big in
the last ten years, so.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
And the Philippines is like a fighting ground in religion,
so I mean.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
That very Catholic too.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, yeah, so that's that's also another interesting part of
that where it's like that's that could give them a
big edge in that region that they're looking for, because
it's like they're not that they've given up on the
Western civilization like America and Canada, but you definitely see
they are attacking Catholic religion is really trying to spread
I shouldn't say attacking spreading in Asia.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Yeah, and Africa, the two fastest growing Catholic outposts in
the world. And so if the Church is saying, hey,
we want to, you know, think long term here, that
could be a thinking, but it's it's still saying like,
we're still trying to make history here. By picking an
African pope, by picking an Asian pope, you're still betting
on something that you know, probably makes a lot of
people in that room a little uncomfortable.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
I wonder why that is. They just pissed picked the
South American pope and that was historic, and now the
makeup of the conclave is so different. And if you're
thinking practically, why wouldn't you choose a pope who can
represent either either Asian or African nations where you are
(29:42):
the fastest growing, where there is a huge populace, where
you have an opportunity to spread the Catholic religion, when
you're not making as many as much headway in Western civilization.
As Simon points out, I refer I prefer not to
call it attacking the Asian and African continent, as Simon would,
(30:04):
but maybe that's just his biologic.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
At the end of the day, the Church cares a
lot about survival, it's about growth, it's about the future.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Yeah, that's what I mean, so you're like, you're like
shocked of the Catholic Church is an excepting of other cultures.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Oh my god, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
I'm not shocked at all.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Well, that's what makes my favorite dark horse pick interesting.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
John John Mark Abilene He's French, serves in Marseilles. He's
the Archbishop of Marseille. The story is that he was
Francis his favorite bishop. But he's kind of at the
mix of all of this, right, He's European, but he's
not Italian. He was born in Algeria, his family emigrated
to Marseille. He's lived in Marseille forever. And Marseille is
one of the most multicultural, kind of like melting pot
(30:50):
cities in the world, the way that that country and
city has dealt with poverty, to migration, to assimilation.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
So there's been so much there.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
And he could end up being if if they say, hey,
we want a European again, but we don't necessarily want
to just hand it back to the Italians. He could
end up being the compromised moderate candidate who emerges. And
he's at three percent right now, three percent on Kalshi.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
I think that's where I'm gonna go.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:17):
I mean, the thing is, the French have always been
a little weird. They don't love the French.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
They do not love the French generally.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
I don't know. It just seems to me like we
got to take someone who's at the bottom of the
percentage odds here and anyone who is being publicly discussed.
What's that line in the story you had, anyone who
you know the next pope always walks out as a cardinal. Yes,
So anyone who thinks they have the upper hand and
(31:46):
is going into the conclave with the expectation that it
could be them, let's take the top five off the board.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
Yeah, it doesn't happen that way. It trues.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
They're going to be a cardinal. They're going to stay
a cardinal. They're going to be really happy and inside
it's going to be a knife fight when they get out,
and everyone is talking about it's going to be we
found the right person, and we're super excited about it.
And the consensus was easy because the represents our values.
It's exactly what it's going to be. All right, Anthony,
give me your plays and Simon, after this conversation, you
(32:20):
are a professional vetter who's got a keen insight into psyche.
I want to hear what your play is and then
I will give you mine.
Speaker 4 (32:28):
Yeah, so I did take some tog Lay.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
I do think that his popularity, his emerging markets kind
of play is the most interesting angle of this entire
conclave because of his opportunity. I think Africa doesn't have
on paper the same consensus person that the whole continent
could rally around. They're pretty split and how they're broken
down from Robert Sarah who's more conservative, to Turksen, who's
(32:55):
a bit more moderate, to other cadidates who are more liberal.
So there's more names that have emerged by But if
the Asian Bloc gets behind tog Lay early and ends
up being the clear guy, then I think it could
end up happening as early as today.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
To be honest with him.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
But Aveleene's my favorite dark horse. I found the equivalent
of twenty to one on him, so I took some
of that. I think once you get below that, you
might as well just start drawing straws. I don't know
how you even come to certain conclusions on that on
other candidates, but there's never been an American pope, so
I would not bet on the Americans, especially given the
(33:33):
current geopolitical climate, but you never know. Ultimately, Aveline and
Toglay are the two I settled on.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Who were the who's even like the American candidate?
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Yeah, there really aren't necessarily any At the top of
the board. Raymond Burke was the number one, and he
made headlines because he wanted to not allow I don't
want to get into politics, but he didn't want to
give Joe Biden communion, so like that.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
Was the whole thing. He said, Like he's a like
one percent.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Robert Privost is probably the other American at the board.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
He's two percent.
Speaker 3 (34:05):
So there's a couple of names, but not not not many.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
All right, Simon, you've heard it. You're a handicapper. At
the end of the day, it's a blank slate. You're
not coming to this with any edge. There's no there's
no power ranking you can make, there's no model you
can do. Hearing everything you've heard, chatter you've had from
your Catholic Philly community, what do you got?
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Well, first, I want to give prop Stanthony for just
smoothly listening off all these guys' names, like it took
me forever amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
I practiced this morning it because I did a lot
of reading for this, but I didn't do like that
much listening, and so when you're writing the names, it's easy.
But then I was like, oh, shoot, like, let me
make sure I have Pierre Batista pizza bala pronounced correctly. Honestly,
I watch a lot of soccer, so that that does
help with the foreign names.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
There you go, yeah, like again it's a rare betw
were you know? Luis the guy from the Philippines. He's
the right age, like he's sixty seven, I think, so
to me, that's like what they're looking for. They want
someone like right around that age. He's not the main guy,
which I feel like he nailed a chad where like
men inherently are weird and jealous creatures, and the guy
(35:18):
who is the man of the group, he might not
be the man to a lot of people, but they
act like it to his face and they wait for
these type of moments that in secrecy, they can take
away some of his power. This guy who thinks he's
the shit, It's like, no, you're not, and we're gonna
give it to someone else who's more deserving. So Yeah,
I just think that whole market, the fact that they're
trying to spread in Asia, that just makes more sense
(35:40):
to me, the voting a guy who seems like a
good guy, seems like he's well liked, and like, even
just reading about him before he came on today, it's
like this guy is well traveled, like he's done a
lot in his years of service. So I didn't know.
I didn't realize his age. To me, that's the big
factory here is the fact that he is sixty seven
sixty eight, Like that's a big deal when they these
votes chads. So yeah, I'm going with the twenty percenter guy.
(36:03):
Not the greatest odds, but I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
I think I'm with Aveline. I feel like I feel
like a he's also up there. I think he's what
sixty six sixty seven number one, number two. I think
if we're talking about and if we're talking about the
makeup of the conclave still heavily European and to them,
(36:30):
to them, France may be Asia, And what I mean
is they could be looking at this as that Asia
and Africa might be one step too far. But we
get a guy from Marseille, and that is a melting pot,
and that it has been a town in France that
(36:51):
has been in the epicenter of what a lot of
has been igniting anti immigration sentiment in France and a
lot of conflict within the country. As you can see,
I'm very well read, and so I think this guy
can represent something that is, you know, not ten degrees
(37:14):
off center, but maybe three degrees off center, and to
what is ultimately a very conservative body. As no matter
how much we talk about liberal, moderate, progressive and conservative,
this is ultimately a very conservative body. I think he
represents change given what we've seen so far. If we're
(37:34):
playing a guy who's not even on the board basically,
who can reach a plurality of voters, who is moderate
but not progressive, can be a little bit different. He's
not Italian, but he's not African. I think it's him.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
I would be fine with that. I got some action
down on him.
Speaker 3 (38:00):
I said he was Francis's number one friend amongst the cardinals, amongst.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
His favorite bishop. He seems like a really likable guy.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
And the one big thing politically for him is he
has been very pro immigrant, but he's been against kind
of the idea of forcing mass migration onto cities, and
he said, like, look what's happened in Marseille when we've
tried these things. And the other big thing I think
that he's really hung his hat on is communications between faiths.
Speaker 4 (38:25):
And we'll see what the church thinks about that.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
But he lives in a city where that is kind
of expected and needed because of how diverse it is.
There's a big Muslim population as well in Marseille, and
so if that plays, if Catholicism is trying to look
toward more cooperation between.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
Faiths, then he could end up being the guy.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
What I like here is I paused to get a
reaction from Anthony and Simon, two Catholic raised boys from
the Philly area, and the first response is Anthony, I
like that. And my head I was thinking, oh, is
it Catholic?
Speaker 4 (39:02):
He likes that?
Speaker 1 (39:02):
And then the next line was I got some money
on that. So I'm glad to see that during this enlightened, thoughtful,
culturally contextualized conversation, your priorities, Anthony de Bundo remained the same. Anthony, Listen,
you did a great job breaking that down. You did
a great job writing that story on the Ringer. It's fantastic.
(39:25):
People should go check it out link in the description
for both YouTube and the podcast link. So in the
podcast page, well well done, We're going to find out
by the time the next episode airs, We're going to
know who the Pope is and I'm super excited to
see what the final resolution, what the white smoke says.
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
(39:48):
the Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page. Don't forget.
Also subscribe at Real Chad Milman, download us some Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is gain.
Until next time, Love you.
Speaker 4 (40:09):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast part of the
Volume and Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the
Action Network. Today. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, my campadre might be a ff professional better,
Simon Hunter Rosimon.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, Chad, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
I am so psyched for today's episode, which came together
quickly because it's very rare that you get an opportunity
in which the entire world's attention is on a singular event,
in this case, electing the new Pope and the conclave
that is happening right now, and it also happens to
(00:50):
coincide with a massive, worldwide, historic betting market. But that's
what we have today right now, the biggest betting event
in the world is trying to figure out how you
can make money off of who is going to be
the next pope. And by the way, this goes back
(01:12):
five centuries. People have been betting on who will be
the next pope, going back to the early fifteen hundreds.
I cannot wait to discuss this with you, Simon and
have everybody find out what your confirmation name was. But
(01:35):
we're going to bring in our guests because it is
incredibly difficult to really understand and handicap who the next
Pope is going to be? So our very own Judas,
a man who walked away from action, joined the Ringer
(01:56):
and today has a fantastic story up on the Ringer
called who Wants the Smoke? Trying to predict the unpredictable
Papal Conclave. A man who calls himself the Holy Trinity
of Italian, American, Catholic and Gambler. Welcome back to the show,
(02:19):
Anthony de Bundo.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I'll be honest, I did not expect to be called
back to talk about the Papal conclave. And if you
had told me that two weeks ago, even four days ago,
I probably would have laughed at you. But I'm happy
to be here, excited to break down this incredible event
that really we only get a handful of times in
our entire lives.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
This is only the This is probably the second one
for you, and thirdnman, third, right, third one. So I
guess this would be the fourth one for me because
I was alive when John Paul the Second got the gig,
and then Benedict, and then Francis and now whoever will
(02:59):
be next, which we're going to determine today. I'm super
excited because I did not know this until we came
on the air. Anthony Catholic, Simon Catholic, Matt Mitchell went
to Catholic school. Gif for Gould, producer went to Catholic school.
(03:20):
One Jew on this show who does not really know
anything about Catholicism. So I'm excited to get educated as
we talk about this. By the way, don't forget everybody
at Real Chad Millman. Go subscribe. Find lots of content
there from the show. Other stuff gambling history of which
(03:41):
this is a core part. You can wager on who
the next Pope will be, and a number of unregulated
offshore sports books. We like to keep things legal and
above board. On this show, we're going to be referencing Calshi,
a prediction market that is legal in all fifty US states,
(04:06):
election betting, fed rate betting, basketball trading. They call it trading.
They don't call it betting, but they actually allow you
to buy and sell positions on practically everything newsworthy, from
pop culture and news headlines to multiple markets related to
the announcement of the next Pope. If you haven't signed
(04:28):
up for Calshi yet, use code action at sign up
for a ten dollars bonus. Link to do that quickly
and easily is in the description build some papal positions.
All right, before we even get to it, let's define
(04:49):
your Catholic bona fides here, because we don't want people
to think you're being sacrilegious or inauthentic. Signon, tell us
how good a Catholic you really?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I was not a good Catholic in any sense of
the word, but I've been. I started going to church
like any good nineties family. My parents made me, my
three brothers go to church from I want to say,
pre k like they would stick me in this like
Sunday classroom until seventh eighth grade until I got my
confirmation brother. So I went to Sunday Mass for I
don't know ten straight years, which looking back is insane
(05:24):
that this is before cell phones or anything. You just
stick some kids on a wooden bench and just being
the most boring place in the world for an hour
while people just sing around you. So God, God bless
my parents. But yeah, I got a confirmation name. My
name is in Saint chach Is. British people old fashioned.
You used to have two middle names. So my full
name with my Hunter as last name is Simon Edward
(05:48):
Thomas Damien Hunter. So Damien is my confirmation name. There
is a Saint Damien out there, and as a little
shitthead seventh grader, I made that my confirmation name to
get back in my teacher who just God bless this
woman just would just absolutely hated me. Her name was
missus Dickerson. I don't know if she's still around, but
(06:08):
obviously with that last name and me being a little
smart ass, it was it was a long eight years
of having me and her CCD classes. So yeah, been
a Catholic and still to this day. You know, we
still go to the Sunday Mass. Like there's two I
would say, people like me who are fake religious people
say Catholics we go to Sunday Mass and Easter Sunday.
(06:30):
Probably haven't been chatting about eight ten years, I'm gonna know,
but I have, I have had said them, did that
someday I might get married and I might have a wife.
That's like we gotta go. So if I meeting nice Jew,
I'll go to temple. If not, I'll probably back in
the church. So I'm trying to hold out as long
as I can till I have to go back.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Brother by the way, says I got to Philly guys
with me today. One of my favorite always Sunnies. I
think it's season one. It's like episode it could be
episode three, four or five, whatever, almost an entire episode
about whether or not you can say the word Jew
(07:11):
or if like all of a sudden that becomes anti Semitic,
which was just a classic classic episode. All right, debundo,
give us your Catholic bona fides, so we know that
none of us are going to hell. We come to
this from an honest, proactive, fatable, positive place.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Debatable. I you know, it's definitely not.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
It's frowned upon by some in the Catholic Church to
bet on anything, but especially the papal outcome. But yeah,
I went to Catholic school in kindergarten, went to public
school for the rest of my education, but I was
an altar boy for a few years in kind of.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
I think it was like sixth and seventh grade.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
I made my confirmation, all the sacraments of my communion,
and you know, maybe one day we'll see I'll get
married in the Catholic Church.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
But it's a part of my family.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
It's not a huge part of my family, and so
it's something that that kind of comes and goes. My Catholicism.
Definitely have my fair share of issues with the Church.
We won't get into, but I think that it is
a fascinating experience to grow up a Catholic.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Well, in the Bible, I believe it says in some
form I might be paraphrasing here, money is the root
of all evil? Am I correct?
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Yes, voice correct technically?
Speaker 1 (08:25):
So what are we doing here? I feel like we're
just we're raised.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
It's not even about money, it's about raising mistakes.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I'm going to hell.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
That is true.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
We would have been ext communicated from the church for
this if we did it for a period of about
three hundred and twenty years.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Well, thank god, whatever Pope decided it was okay. Has
modernized the times. And that's really what we're here to
talk about today. Will the conclave, Will the cardinals when
the white smoke billows have chosen a pope who is
along the progressive and liberal lane that Francis has been
(09:03):
on during he had been on during his reign, which
was what twelve years, will they go more conservative Anthony
before we even get into that. Your story's great, What
did you learn about the history of betting on the
pope that makes us feel better about this?
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Yeah, so it starts and as early as we can tell,
dates back to fifteen oh three. So in Rome when
they were choosing the new pope, kind of like if
you saw the movie Gladiator two, where in the movie
they're like horse trading on the street, betting on who
they think that the winner of the Gladiators games are
going to be. It's similar to that, and that it
was kind of how betting worked, where you could have
(09:44):
brokers and Roman banking houses that would take bets on
who the next quote was going to be. And you know,
back then it was just always a much smaller process.
It wasn't the same you know, massive conclave that they
have now super secretive. The oath of secrecy has become
a newer thing, and so back then, I'm sure there
was a lot of insider trading. There was a lot
(10:05):
of who knew a guy who knew a guy who
knew a guy's cousin. But basically the church decided we
really don't want this, because in fifteen ninety one they
said we don't want anybody betting on this, So we
are now saying you are excommunicated from the church if
you decide you're gonna bet on the pope. But they
(10:28):
lifted it in nineteen eighteen, so we're back.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Technically, we're back, baby, But the reality is that it
kind of one and ten years of betting on this pope,
but it.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
Never really left because you can go back to nineteen
oh three, the Italian government was offering bets on when
the sick Pope Leo the thirteenth would die, so you
can literally bet on like will this guy live for
X amount of time? So clearly like betting on pope
outcomes is something that even when the Church didn't like
it, it was still happening regardless, which is similar to you
know how betting works on sports in America, right, It
(11:00):
happened long before it became legal, but now we just
get to talk about it more openly.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
It doesn't go away, it just happens somewhere else. That's
really the gist of the story for betting. Just about
every other device that has ever been that anyone has
ever tried to legislate, eradicate, or control, it's just going
to happen, water finds a crack, that's just how it goes. Simon,
(11:25):
give us your take. Is there a wise guy market
that you're hearing about amongst all your scumbag Philly friends
that is going on for the pope right now?
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Unfortunately I have not if those tax messages I'm being
left out of. Like I've heard a little bit about
it in some chatter, but that's honestly in my own
personal life, not from better. So, like we just talked about,
this is a market that is real, but I don't
think it's one that, like you know, pros dedicate their
lives too, because like we just said, it's once in
every twelve years, could be once every twenty five five years.
(12:00):
It's just such a niche market. But you know me, chat,
I'll bet on anything. I've done deadpools before, so like
this is nothing to me. And question for anything though,
is you know, being on the East Coast, what time
do they burn the paper? Like is it one o'clock,
two o'clock East coast? Like when do that? When does
the smoke happen? Is that just a random time every
(12:21):
day or is it a set time that they burn?
And let us know the black smoke or the white smoke.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, so they have the first day, which was Wednesday,
first day the conclave. They gather in the evening and
they have the first vote, so the first vote already happened.
As of now, we're recording this Thursday morning. The first
vote already happened and it was black smoke. So no
new pope, no two thirds majority. The second day and
every day they're off after So starting on Thursday, there
(12:47):
will be four votes per day, two in the morning,
so they've already happened. We're recording this eleven am. It's
five pm in Rome. They've already had the two morning votes.
Then they'll have the evening votes if necessary. Then after
the fourth round of voting they break for the day.
They come back the third day. So we don't know
when the smoke will turn white, but it could be
as early as tonight as this afternoon really, because it'll
(13:07):
be around three four o'clock PM Eastern, which was yesterday.
It was three pm Eastern that they put out the
black smoke. I suspect it'll be around the same time
again today, So around three four o'clock Eastern you'll get
the smoke.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
So your advice to people listen to this would be
whatever you give out here, try to get to this
market attack and now, because it could happen literally today.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Pope Francis was elected on the second day.
Speaker 3 (13:28):
Oh, traditionally it's been longer, but it's gotten shorter as
time has gone on.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
So usually it's like three or four days.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
You have to remember, like you're being sequestered, right, So
these cardinals, as much as the sacred process, they don't.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Want to be sitting in the conclave.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
You know, there was a joke about how they're raw
dogging it without their phones, Like they don't want to
be doing this for months on end, weeks on end.
They want to get to the solution as well, so
or doing the.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
One thing we know they're not doing is checking Instagram
because their devices all I believe the kids.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
I believe the kids call it raw dogging it.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
If you're going to go through a long period of
time with no electronic device.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
Yeah right, well they're of a certain age. Yeah it's
not sixteen hundred. There's other things to do.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Now.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
I want to explain a little bit at what Calshi
is so people understand when you're going to play on
the platform. What you're really doing. It's essentially a trading platform,
and you're trading what are called contracts. You're buying and selling.
You're making a bit on a price on a market,
you're selling a market. That's how you're operating on these platforms.
(14:31):
I think they're fascinating. I think it's the direction a
lot of this is going. Everyone should go and check
it out. I've played with it a ton, and you know,
for the book that I've talked about on the show.
I think prediction markets over the next two to three
years are going to become more and more influential. I
have no doubts that, especially when we get to a
(14:53):
twenty twenty eight presidential election. There are analysts on the
desks for all the major broadcasts that are looking at
what is happening in the election. From the perspective of
the prediction markets, it's a great source of truth on
what people with actual money on the line are doing.
(15:14):
It cleans up I think a lot of the noise
from the polling data that is becoming less and less
accurate and reliable. So I'm a huge fan of what
these platforms are doing. They are now offering a lot
of different markets in sports. But like I said, you'll go,
you'll check it out. You'll see the Pope, You'll see
what's the Fed gonna do. You can see markets about
(15:35):
what Elon Musk is going to do. You can see
markets about Tesla. It's like any market that anyone has
a decision on or an opinion on, can be posted
and then bought and sold. It's really really fascinating. So Anthony,
in your story, explain how the makeup of the cardinals
has changed during Francis's time, because I do you think
(16:00):
that's going to have a huge impact on how voting
may play out.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Yeah, so you hear about like stacking the courts, packing
the courts, Francis did a little bit of conclave cardinal packing.
One hundred and eight of the one hundred and thirty
three members are new and appointed by Francis, so this
is their first conclave. So many of these people they've
never met. They've been doing a lot of listening sessions
and conversations before the doors were even locked to kind
(16:27):
of get to know each other, to get to understand
the different factions that are forming. And so this really
is incredibly uncertain. As a result of that, because it
can go two ways. One hand, you could say, hey,
they're new, they're more likely to listen to the quote
unquote elders. Or you could say they're new they could
want to continue and push the church even further in
the progressive direction. And so I think there's a lot
(16:48):
of questions about how that will actually manifest itself. But
one thing that is certainly true is that the makeup
geographically is vastly different than it was twelve years ago.
Europe used to be the center of power of the
Catholic Church.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
It still is, but much less now.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
So Africa has more cardinals than it ever has, South
America and Asia all have seen significant increases in their
percentage of the vote, and so those voters have more
weight now to throw around. Whereas it used to just
be all right, Europe would kind of just pick their guy.
Usually it was an Italian, we had a German, we
had a Polish guy. But now with you know, Francis's
(17:28):
election and now his reign, the church is much more
worldwide than it used to be. And if they want
to continue that, they could end up picking somebody who's
not in Europe.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
This is where it starts to get interesting. The politics
of the church really are in play here because Francis,
as I said at the beginning, has been considered to
be a more liberal, more progressive pope. There are players
(18:03):
in the church who would like the church to lean
more conservative. But to me, in your story, the way
you handicapped it, there were only one or two people
who really had a chance as conservative sort of backers
to become the next pope. Break it down sort of
(18:27):
how the moderate liberal conservative factions can influence this.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
It is hard because you know, the way we think
about politics as Americans is inherently a little different than
how religious politics work. And then how like even in Europe,
how that works because there's different kinds of theory, right,
Because you could be a progressive on certain issues that
the church takes up, like how do you feel about
mass immigration? How do you feel about climate change? Which
(18:56):
were things that Francis would be considered very liberal on,
but then you could also be more conservative on like
the actual Bible, the religious text, the theology of it all,
And so you might not see yourself and you could
take multiple different positions.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
And so I think that's where it gets a little
bit tricky.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
When you try to just like line people up on
a scale from one to the other. But certainly like
I think the most conservative front runner is Peter Erdo
of from Hungary, who has been a key figure in
the conservative block. But he's not like if you watch
the movie and I made this joke in the movie,
like the conservative guy to Desco. I don't know if
you've seen Conclave, but he's like this very like loud, bombastic,
(19:36):
like my way of the Highway type that is not
really how Erdo is characterized. He's seen as kind of
a consensus builder. And so we've seen a right word
shift along a lot of political institutions in Europe, especially
elections have gone the way of right wing parties. But
this is not an election of like your average Catholic voter.
This is people again that France has picked. And so
(19:57):
if Francis's influence is going to away on this conclave,
and he seemed to be pretty well respected by the
majority of the of the voters in this conclave, then
how do you form a two thirds consensus without people
who liked him and want his legacy to continue. That's
where I think it does get hard for the more
conservative candidates.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
I like airdo because you can say post hoc airdough
propter hoc and and it almost feels like you're back
in the West wing. That, by the way, is Latin
for after this therefore, because of this, but we did
a little wordplay, it's airgo, not airdo. Simon Matt Mitchell
(20:40):
is probably going to cut that out plain to about
one other persons same. Here's what I like about this
from a completely from a handicapping exercise. There is literally
(21:02):
zero information available, right and unless you're the you know,
Vatican bureau chief for the New York Times or the
Washington Post or the Guardian or any other international media outlet,
there's no sourcing. None of those reporters are in the conclave,
(21:23):
and a lot of those reporters have probably never met
the cardinals who are coming, because a lot of the
cardinals have never met each other because they're coming from outposts.
So it's almost like this is a clean slate handicapping opportunity, right, Like,
how would you even you say you're bet on anything?
How do you even go about trying to figure out
how to make an intelligent trade on this?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Well, it feels like the more I read about it
feels like there are angles to attack with this. So
that's all I'm interested where Anthey's gonna say about it,
because it's like it seems like people who are smart
and like him have done a ton of research on
this all because I had no idea about out them,
you know, having more guys outside of Europe, because what
he just said is true to me, where it's just
all these old guys who are all in Europe picking
(22:07):
their buddies to be the next pope. Like that's just
always the way it's always been. So this year is interesting, right.
We have a couple of long shot odds that I
can't wait to hear Anthony dive into. That's like, is
there a good value there? Like cause we're, like you
just said, it's a lot of unknown, Like there's a
lot of hearsay taking angles because you know, I mean
Matt Mitchell sent his stuff about guy's body weight and
(22:28):
his skinny popes, and it's like, I love it all.
It's people are just grasping his strolls here. But there's
value that you can you can take these weird angles
to make these weird bets, and I mean it could
be hitting a huge home run like there's some crazy
long shot odds here on some of these popes.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Thirty three to one. That were the odds on Francis
in twenty thirteen at one book.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Well look that's the eifteen favorite, right, he was thirty
three to one because there had never.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Been a pope from South America, So people were like,
why would we why would we see this guy as
a favorite?
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Ben Bendict was Benedict didn't have short odds, you know,
John Paul didn't have short odds. They never do, so
it's almost like you need to discount the top.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Of the board.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
But for purposes of housekeeping, give us like the current
odds and a little bit of background on each person
so people can understand what they're looking at when they
go on to Kelshi and they see sort of some
of these markets.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Yeah, so I'll say right now, I think there's a
clear top five consensus on who the people really should
be here. The favorite, and he's been kind of the
favorite since the beginning is Pietro Powerline.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
He's Italian.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
He would be considered kind of the moderate ish version,
a continuation of Francis. The main reason he's seen is
the favorite one.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
He has the most.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Connections to the other cardinals, right, he's kind of been
there the longest, kind of the elder statesman of the Vatican.
And he was also the Secretary of State of the Vatican,
which is like the deputy Pope that they call him,
and so he's, you know, very close to Francis, very
close to how things work in the Vatican.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
He's kind of the insider, moderate.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Continuation choice if the Church could go that way, and
I don't think anybody would be surprised. The second favorite
is Luis Antonio Tagle and he is they call him
the Asian Francis. He's from the Philippines. There's never been
an Asian pope. He is a pretty progressive guy who
has spent time both at his outpost in the Global South,
which is I think an interesting part of this developing country,
(24:21):
kind of similar to what Francis's path was to the papacy.
But he's also been in the Vatican too, so he's
served in the Vatican in an administrative role as well.
So he's kind of been around and he's at twenty
five percent right now, Paroline's at thirty three. So those
are the two favorites I would say, the buzzy dark
horse that everybody likes is Pierre Battista Pizza Bala, which
(24:44):
is quite an Italian name. He's gotten a lot of
juice because he got put in a really tough situation.
He's a young guy who is now the first person
serving in the Catholic Church in Jerusalem, which he got
the job one week before the October seventh attack by Hamas,
so he gets thrown into a war zone basically week
(25:06):
one on the job and has made a lot of
positive headway and headlines and gained a lot of respect
I think on both sides of that war because of
how he's handled it. He even offered himself up as
a hostage to say trade me for these hostages, I'll
you know, be taken in. And I think a lot
of people like him. He is too young, though, and
that is one thing we've seen where like, if you're
(25:27):
really young, the pa Pole conclave is like, eh, you know,
we don't want you to serve for thirty years. We
want like, you know, eight to ten years and then
we'll pick somebody else. Because if you pick somebody and
he serves for a really long time and you don't
like him, now the church has gone very far and
very long without the next conclave, so it is a
bit of a power grab. And then Matteo Zoopie. We
(25:47):
talked about Aerdo. He's on the mix too, Mateo Zoope.
It would be the progressive insider choice. He's the archbishop
of Bologna. He is a very close friend of Francis.
They call him Don Matteo. He's well liked in those
another insider choice as well.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Have you gone back and tried to calculate the average
odds for I don't even know if there were odds
for John Paul or how we would find them, but
what were the average odds for Benedict? What were the
what were the average what was the average ods for
Benedict and Francis? And who's in that position? Because as
(26:25):
we've said, the favorites never win and it ends up
being someone who nobody was thinking about, which I think
is inherent in the process, right because they need a
two thirds majority and immediately people start jockeying and peeling
off votes. And again all my knowledge about what happens
(26:47):
in a conclave is coming from the movie Conclave, where
you know, like someone is politicking behind the scenes, so
who's in that sweet spot of odds that we should
be looking at.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
Yeah, so I have the last five papal elections and
shout out to the smoke filled room substack written by
Brendan Higgins. He has done some incredible research and honestly
was a huge part of the piece writing this. So
Francis was seen as thirty two to one. He was
not the favorite. Three to one was Benedict in two
(27:22):
thousand and five, he was the favorite twenty five percent.
There were no odds listed for John Paul the Second
or first, so they weren't even on the board and
they got picked. And that was a weird conclave because
John Paul the First gets elected, he dies almost immediately.
There was a lot of conspiracies about that. Then John
Paul the Second comes in right after him. He serves
(27:42):
for almost thirty years, so they were not on the board.
And then John the twenty third in nineteen fifty eight
he was the favorite.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
So this list has ten names.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
On the board going back to fifteen oh three, which
we have odds for. Only three of them were favorites,
and you know, three of the last four were not
seen as top of the board picks I think if
you're looking for the Benedict type candidate, or sorry, the
Francis type candidate.
Speaker 4 (28:08):
It's probably toag Lay.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
But the thing is, we all just saw the Francis
thing happen, so now everybody's kind of hypothesizing that tog
Lay is the new Francis. So if this were twenty thirteen,
tog Lea's odds would have been what Francis's odds were.
But now we're kind of a little smarter to it
that they might want to look forward. And their membership
in Asia has been growing pretty big, pretty big in
the last ten years, so.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
And the Philippines is like a fighting ground in religion,
so I mean.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
That very Catholic too.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, yeah, so that's that's also another interesting part of
that where it's like that's that could give them a
big edge in that region that they're looking for, because
it's like they're not that they've given up on the
Western civilization like America and Canada, but you definitely see
they are attacking Catholic religion is really trying to spread
I shouldn't say attacking spreading in Asia.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Yeah, and Africa, the two fastest growing Catholic outposts in
the world. And so if the Church is saying, hey,
we want to, you know, think long term here, that
could be a thinking, but it's it's still saying like,
we're still trying to make history here. By picking an
African pope, by picking an Asian pope, you're still betting
on something that you know, probably makes a lot of
people in that room a little uncomfortable.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
I wonder why that is. They just pissed picked the
South American pope and that was historic, and now the
makeup of the conclave is so different. And if you're
thinking practically, why wouldn't you choose a pope who can
represent either either Asian or African nations where you are
(29:42):
the fastest growing, where there is a huge populace, where
you have an opportunity to spread the Catholic religion, when
you're not making as many as much headway in Western civilization.
As Simon points out, I refer I prefer not to
call it attacking the Asian and African continent, as Simon would,
(30:04):
but maybe that's just his biologic.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
At the end of the day, the Church cares a
lot about survival, it's about growth, it's about the future.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Yeah, that's what I mean, so you're like, you're like
shocked of the Catholic Church is an excepting of other cultures.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Oh my god, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
I'm not shocked at all.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Well, that's what makes my favorite dark horse pick interesting.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
John John Mark Abilene He's French, serves in Marseilles. He's
the Archbishop of Marseille. The story is that he was
Francis his favorite bishop. But he's kind of at the
mix of all of this, right, He's European, but he's
not Italian. He was born in Algeria, his family emigrated
to Marseille. He's lived in Marseille forever. And Marseille is
one of the most multicultural, kind of like melting pot
(30:50):
cities in the world, the way that that country and
city has dealt with poverty, to migration, to assimilation.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
So there's been so much there.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
And he could end up being if if they say, hey,
we want a European again, but we don't necessarily want
to just hand it back to the Italians. He could
end up being the compromised moderate candidate who emerges. And
he's at three percent right now, three percent on Kalshi.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
I think that's where I'm gonna go.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:17):
I mean, the thing is, the French have always been
a little weird. They don't love the French.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
They do not love the French generally.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
I don't know. It just seems to me like we
got to take someone who's at the bottom of the
percentage odds here and anyone who is being publicly discussed.
What's that line in the story you had, anyone who
you know the next pope always walks out as a cardinal. Yes,
So anyone who thinks they have the upper hand and
(31:46):
is going into the conclave with the expectation that it
could be them, let's take the top five off the board.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
Yeah, it doesn't happen that way. It trues.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
They're going to be a cardinal. They're going to stay
a cardinal. They're going to be really happy and inside
it's going to be a knife fight when they get out,
and everyone is talking about it's going to be we
found the right person, and we're super excited about it.
And the consensus was easy because the represents our values.
It's exactly what it's going to be. All right, Anthony,
give me your plays and Simon, after this conversation, you
(32:20):
are a professional vetter who's got a keen insight into psyche.
I want to hear what your play is and then
I will give you mine.
Speaker 4 (32:28):
Yeah, so I did take some tog Lay.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
I do think that his popularity, his emerging markets kind
of play is the most interesting angle of this entire
conclave because of his opportunity. I think Africa doesn't have
on paper the same consensus person that the whole continent
could rally around. They're pretty split and how they're broken
down from Robert Sarah who's more conservative, to Turksen, who's
(32:55):
a bit more moderate, to other cadidates who are more liberal.
So there's more names that have emerged by But if
the Asian Bloc gets behind tog Lay early and ends
up being the clear guy, then I think it could
end up happening as early as today.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
To be honest with him.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
But Aveleene's my favorite dark horse. I found the equivalent
of twenty to one on him, so I took some
of that. I think once you get below that, you
might as well just start drawing straws. I don't know
how you even come to certain conclusions on that on
other candidates, but there's never been an American pope, so
I would not bet on the Americans, especially given the
(33:33):
current geopolitical climate, but you never know. Ultimately, Aveline and
Toglay are the two I settled on.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Who were the who's even like the American candidate?
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Yeah, there really aren't necessarily any At the top of
the board. Raymond Burke was the number one, and he
made headlines because he wanted to not allow I don't
want to get into politics, but he didn't want to
give Joe Biden communion, so like that.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
Was the whole thing. He said, Like he's a like
one percent.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Robert Privost is probably the other American at the board.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
He's two percent.
Speaker 3 (34:05):
So there's a couple of names, but not not not many.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
All right, Simon, you've heard it. You're a handicapper. At
the end of the day, it's a blank slate. You're
not coming to this with any edge. There's no there's
no power ranking you can make, there's no model you
can do. Hearing everything you've heard, chatter you've had from
your Catholic Philly community, what do you got?
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Well, first, I want to give prop Stanthony for just
smoothly listening off all these guys' names, like it took
me forever amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
I practiced this morning it because I did a lot
of reading for this, but I didn't do like that
much listening, and so when you're writing the names, it's easy.
But then I was like, oh, shoot, like, let me
make sure I have Pierre Batista pizza bala pronounced correctly. Honestly,
I watch a lot of soccer, so that that does
help with the foreign names.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
There you go, yeah, like again it's a rare betw
were you know? Luis the guy from the Philippines. He's
the right age, like he's sixty seven, I think, so
to me, that's like what they're looking for. They want
someone like right around that age. He's not the main guy,
which I feel like he nailed a chad where like
men inherently are weird and jealous creatures, and the guy
(35:18):
who is the man of the group, he might not
be the man to a lot of people, but they
act like it to his face and they wait for
these type of moments that in secrecy, they can take
away some of his power. This guy who thinks he's
the shit, It's like, no, you're not, and we're gonna
give it to someone else who's more deserving. So Yeah,
I just think that whole market, the fact that they're
trying to spread in Asia, that just makes more sense
(35:40):
to me, the voting a guy who seems like a
good guy, seems like he's well liked, and like, even
just reading about him before he came on today, it's
like this guy is well traveled, like he's done a
lot in his years of service. So I didn't know.
I didn't realize his age. To me, that's the big
factory here is the fact that he is sixty seven
sixty eight, Like that's a big deal when they these
votes chads. So yeah, I'm going with the twenty percenter guy.
(36:03):
Not the greatest odds, but I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
I think I'm with Aveline. I feel like I feel
like a he's also up there. I think he's what
sixty six sixty seven number one, number two. I think
if we're talking about and if we're talking about the
makeup of the conclave still heavily European and to them,
(36:30):
to them, France may be Asia, And what I mean
is they could be looking at this as that Asia
and Africa might be one step too far. But we
get a guy from Marseille, and that is a melting pot,
and that it has been a town in France that
(36:51):
has been in the epicenter of what a lot of
has been igniting anti immigration sentiment in France and a
lot of conflict within the country. As you can see,
I'm very well read, and so I think this guy
can represent something that is, you know, not ten degrees
(37:14):
off center, but maybe three degrees off center, and to
what is ultimately a very conservative body. As no matter
how much we talk about liberal, moderate, progressive and conservative,
this is ultimately a very conservative body. I think he
represents change given what we've seen so far. If we're
(37:34):
playing a guy who's not even on the board basically,
who can reach a plurality of voters, who is moderate
but not progressive, can be a little bit different. He's
not Italian, but he's not African. I think it's him.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
I would be fine with that. I got some action
down on him.
Speaker 3 (38:00):
I said he was Francis's number one friend amongst the cardinals, amongst.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
His favorite bishop. He seems like a really likable guy.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
And the one big thing politically for him is he
has been very pro immigrant, but he's been against kind
of the idea of forcing mass migration onto cities, and
he said, like, look what's happened in Marseille when we've
tried these things. And the other big thing I think
that he's really hung his hat on is communications between faiths.
Speaker 4 (38:25):
And we'll see what the church thinks about that.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
But he lives in a city where that is kind
of expected and needed because of how diverse it is.
There's a big Muslim population as well in Marseille, and
so if that plays, if Catholicism is trying to look
toward more cooperation between.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
Faiths, then he could end up being the guy.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
What I like here is I paused to get a
reaction from Anthony and Simon, two Catholic raised boys from
the Philly area, and the first response is Anthony, I
like that. And my head I was thinking, oh, is
it Catholic?
Speaker 4 (39:02):
He likes that?
Speaker 1 (39:02):
And then the next line was I got some money
on that. So I'm glad to see that during this enlightened, thoughtful,
culturally contextualized conversation, your priorities, Anthony de Bundo remained the same. Anthony, Listen,
you did a great job breaking that down. You did
a great job writing that story on the Ringer. It's fantastic.
(39:25):
People should go check it out link in the description
for both YouTube and the podcast link. So in the
podcast page, well well done, We're going to find out
by the time the next episode airs, We're going to
know who the Pope is and I'm super excited to
see what the final resolution, what the white smoke says.
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
(39:48):
the Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page. Don't forget.
Also subscribe at Real Chad Milman, download us some Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is gain.
Until next time, Love you.
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