May 1, 2025 • 36 mins
This Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, hundreds of thousands of gleeful gamblers will wager on the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, the Greatest Two Minutes In Sports. The Derby is a betting highlight of the spring calendar and here to break it all down with hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter is Action Network racing contributor Mike Conti. Together they discuss all things betting for both the Kentucky Derby, including who he likes to win, his favorite longshots, and informed opinions for exotic wagers like exactas and trifectas.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
of the Volume Podcast Network. I I I'm Chad Millman
of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre might beff professional
better sign in hunt, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
May first, you know what that means the calendar turns.
The mar Key event on the betting calendar in May
is the Kentucky Derby, which is this Saturday at Churchill
Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The one hundred and fifty first
(00:49):
running of the Roses, the greatest two minutes in sports,
an American gambling event like none other. Here to help
all of us bet and profit on all the festivities
in Louisville. Because it's not just about the Derby. Is
our Action Network horse racing contributor, one of the very
(01:09):
best handicappers in the business, Chicago's finest. We do nothing
if not promote anybody from the great city of Chicago.
Mister Mike Conti, how are.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
You, buddy, I'm great. Thanks for having me, guys, super excited.
One of my favorite weekends of the year.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Listen before we get deep deep, into Mike and all
his handicapping knowledge. Quick announcement, I want everyone this is big.
This is very big. As a brand new everyone listening
to the show needs to go subscribe to at Real
Chad Milman on YouTube. That's right, I'm launching a YouTube channel.
We're gonna air clips from the favorites. We're gonna air
(01:50):
the show live there. It's gonna signlecast on Action and
on at at Real Chad Milman. We're gonna have clips
on a Egeler basis. I'm going to react to news
and infro from the betting world. I'm going to throw
up opinions. I'm going to share nuggets from the book
I'm reporting, which anybody who likes anything about sports betting
(02:13):
is going to enjoy. Like the nugget I had the
other day, why do people call it handicapping? Go subscribe
to at Real Chad Melman. We are just launching it.
Get after it. I will remind you often at Real
Chad Melman. Mike, we talked about this on the show
the other day. Do you know why it's called handicapping?
Speaker 3 (02:37):
You know when you just said that chat, I was
thinking about it and I, much to my mother's dismay.
I could read a horse racing program before I could
read a book. I actually don't know why it's called
handicapping though.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
It's called handicapping because the guy who ran the Jockey
Club in London in I think the late seventeen hundre
undreds or eighteen hundreds, in order to make the races
more interesting and get more action from betters, he would
(03:10):
add weights to the horses that were the fastest to
handicap them. And so they continue to call it handicapping
throughout the history of all of sports betting. Isn't that cool?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I love that. I had no idea.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
That's amazing, great little nugget, right, that's what Listen, Mike,
you can get stuff like that at at Real Chad
Moment on YouTube. So I hope you'll go subscribe. Can
you explain for people you just said you knew how
to read basically the daily racing form before you could
read anything else. Explain how that happened.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah. So, growing up, my father owned a sports bar
in New Haven, Connecticut, and you know, lo and behold,
there was this is back in the day when you
had to call in your bets and there was a
phone booth in the corner of the bar, and that
phone booth was reserved to go make your bets. And
so every Saturday morning we'd go, we'd open up the
(04:11):
bar and we'd sit there with the Daily Racing Form
and learned how to read the papers from all of
the cast of characters that were at the bar at
eight am on a Saturday morning. And that was my
first kind of soire into horse racing.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
God, that's amazing, you know what's great? A I love
that it was New Haven, which is about forty five
minutes from where I am in West Hartford, Connecticut. But
since we're on the subject, the Daily Racing Form was
like the key driver of the modern way sports betting
(04:49):
happens in the country because the entire thing was about
the dissemination of information and it was owned and there
were literal wars. There were wars over the the control
of this information gangster wars. Simon, you're shaking your head
like you've either heard this or you're excited about it.
Of people getting killed because to control what was basically
(05:11):
the wire services that communicated who was winning and losing
horse racing bets throughout the country. Mike, do you know
this story.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I actually did not know that story either, Simon.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Do you know this story.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
I've heard about it just from Yeah, like what you're
talking about old guys telling stories about horse racing.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Yeah, so like the Annenberg media fortune. Annenberg, which I
think you know, endows the USC Journalism School. It's a
massive philanthropic organization in Philadelphia, Simon, because it owned the
Annenberg family owned the Philadelphian Choir. The guy made his
money as a circulation director for William Randolph Hurst and
(05:56):
he was running newspapers in Chicago, in Milwaukee, Matt Mitchell
in Milwaukee. And this was literally like bloody, bloody business.
People were being killed to own street corners where they
could distribute newspapers because it was so much money. Annenberg
was really good at this. Hearst loved him. He made
(06:17):
a lot of money, and then he bought the Daily
Racing Form, and the Daily Racing Form became his primary
driver of income as he grew a massive, massive media empire,
and he had the Daily Racing Form for twenty years
and this became the primary way through the telegraph that
(06:37):
a lot of information was distributed for sports betters. It's
a phenomenal story and everyone's going to get to read
about it in my book when it comes out in
August of twenty twenty seven. And now you get to
see this clip on at Real Chad Nolan god on YouTube.
I did that all off the top of my head.
It just happened, Jenn.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
I feel like all you're doing right now is figuring
out that America's literally built on guys with sports betting
and a lot of killing. All these businesses in America
you're finding out are like, oh yeah, this guy want
to buy sports betting, this guy wanted by horse racing.
It's like, what are you uncovering right now? It seems
pretty incredible.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
It's pretty incredible simon how many businesses that we know
of today as being legit businesses started as completely illegitimate
businesses with deep, deep roots in criminal activity that over
time evolved. And we can look at it right now,
(07:31):
look at sports betting, look at a lot of the
drug trade, like in every single capacity, some of these
things over time, by the way alcohol distribution in the twenties,
you know, then became something that was legit and legal,
like all these things. So much of what powers the
domestic economy started as stuff that was very very illicit.
(07:55):
But what's not illicit, it's trying to win money. The
Kentucky Derby, Mike, the Derby is a different race for
people who don't know, explain how it's different than you know,
regular stakes races, than the other triple Crown races. Give
people the differences.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Yeah, So, first and foremost, a horse can only run
in the Kentucky Derby one time in his or her life.
It is only for three year old horses. I say
his or hers. Most of the time it is for
three year old colts, male horses. That's not to exclude
the phillies, the females. They can run. It is always
(08:35):
the first Saturday in May. Most of the time it
is the most it's the deepest field. So there are
twenty horses in every year's Kentucky Derby. Most of the
time these horses at most have run against ten twelve
other horses. So they get one chance at this they
you know, you get one chance. It's the deepest field
that they're going to run in, and up to this
(08:56):
point in their careers, this is the longest race out
of my in a quarter that these horses have ever run.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Is it harder for these horses.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Absolutely, you know, I think for a number of reasons. One,
you talk about the crowd noise, right, horses definitely react
to the noise. And when you think about, you know,
how packed the stands are and how packed Churchill Downs is,
the infield and the grand stands, there's a lot of
noise for these horses. There's a lot going on. Again,
it is a twenty horse field. A couple of years
(09:29):
ago they actually just created a new starting gate for
the Kentucky Derby so that the one hole wasn't at
such a disadvantage starting on the turn. But with that
now the starting gates are a little bit tighter, So
now you've got a deeper field, a tighter starting gate,
all of the noise going a mile and a quarter.
And you know, these young three year old horses. You know,
(09:51):
for those that don't know, horses cannot start racing until
they're two, and most of them start racing, you know,
mid summer of their two year old year. So you're
talking about horses that have less than a year of
total experience ever racing, that are now coming into the
biggest race of their lives.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Yeah, whenever I watch the Derby and you see them
packing the horses into the gates. I always feel the
worst for the horses that have to be in there
early because even though it takes maybe two minutes total
to get twenty horses into the gate, these are really
(10:29):
young horses. And the horses in the number one position
and the number two position versus if it goes all
the way out to twenty, they're in there for a
long time, and it seems like it starts to stress
the animal a little bit like that in itself seemed
like a disadvantage.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
Without a doubt, you know. And that's it's a very
interesting thing, is like how does and you have to
give the assistant starter. So those are the guys who
are loading the horses and then they're standing in the
starting gate with the horses. Their job is to help
keep those horses calm. Obviously, the jockey, you know, is
on board, and that's part of the jocks job. But
you know, an overlooked aspect of this is the assistant
starter helping these horses to stay calm while they load
(11:11):
before they open the gates.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
When you watch this, uh, do you get a sense
even from that moment, like if you've got a bet
that is going to crash as as soon as the
gates open, just by how the horses are reacting to
being put in the starting.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Gate without a doubt. I mean, there's a couple of
things you look at right like how are the horses
acting in the starting gate? Are they relaxed or you know,
are they tossing their head around? The worst thing, obviously
is if they have to back a horse out, because
that's only going to delay the start even further. And
then once you know those starting gates open, there's a
huge roar from the crowd and you're talking about twenty
(11:51):
horses all sprinting right to that first turn. You know,
there are horses, especially the speed horses, that the race
is one or lost in the first few jump for them,
depending upon how well they break.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, you just said, this is such a huge feel
of twenty horses, Like what jumps out to you? Those
horses you're just right away getting out of there. You
don't only want to bet out of this field right now?
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, So you know, in terms of horses that I'm tossing,
the first horse is the number thirteen publisher. He's a maiden,
and for those unfamiliar, a maiden means that they've never
won a race. So it is so unique that we
have a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. In recent memory,
I can't remember another maiden that ran in the Kentucky Derby.
(12:34):
So first and foremost, I'll be tossing the number thirteen Publisher.
I'm also tossing the number eleven Flying Mohawk, the number
twelve East Avenue, who appears to be the pace of
the race and the fastest early horse. I don't think
that he's going to be able to last. The number
twenty zeroen Almighty. The trainer actually didn't want to run
in this race, but obviously every owner's dream is to
(12:57):
get their horse to the Kentucky Derby. So the owners
of number twenty on Almighty are the ones who really
pushed for this race because of that. If the trainer
doesn't want to really be in the race, I don't
really want that horse on my ticket. Number fifteen Render Judgment.
The cool story to number fifteen Render Judgment is he
is Toby Keith, Rest in Peace. He owns a stable
(13:20):
of horses, and did own a stable of horses that's
still in his name. Render Judgment is one of Toby
Keith's the first runner for Toby in the Derby, but
I am tossing that horse. The number one Citizen Bull
is another horse that I will be tossing. And then
there are two Japanese horses in this race, one of
whom I like. The other one I'm tossing. The one
(13:40):
that I'm tossing is number six, Admire Daytona.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Bob Baffert coming back, been away a while? What do
handicappers think about Baffort? What do they think of his history?
Both the good and the bad. For those who don't know,
Bob Baffert obviously decade long, decade's long career as a
legendary trainer, winning Triple Crown races, but also suspended the
(14:06):
past few years because of drug because he was drugging horses.
Is that right? Am I allowed to say that?
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, okay, because he was drugging horses. So this is
his first year back. Do you have an opinion on
Baffort as a trainer, both the good and the bad?
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Look this is so. Bafford's got two horses in here.
One of them is one of the horses that I'm tossing,
number one Citizen Bowl. The other one we'll talk about
in a little while. Is number four Rodriguez? Look like
you said, Chad, Bob Bafford is one of the greatest
horse trainers of all time. He's had two Triple Crown
winners in terms of winning the actual Triple Crown, not
(14:45):
just winning the Derby or one of the other Triple
Crown races. He's a top notch trainer. You know, Do
I love Bob Bafford, No, But he's a trainer that
you know when he's putting a horse in the race,
that the horse is going to most likely be live.
And so you've got to consider even though I'm throwing
out one of his two runners in.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Here, here's a random question. Can you make a living
as a handicapper of horses these days?
Speaker 3 (15:17):
There are people that do? You know? For me, it's
much more of the fun and the hobby of it,
But there are definitely people that make a living handicapping
the horses, right, And these weekends are the best weekends
because you mentioned before, Chad, you know, graded steaks races
are the premier races of horse racing, and there are
three graded stakes races, Grade ones, which is the highest level,
(15:39):
Grade two, and Grade three those are your top tier races,
and that's where, in my opinion, you get horses that
most likely are going to run to their form. You have,
you can draw a better opinion of it, you know,
But on any given Thursday afternoon when they're running a
you know, a claiming five thousand dollars race, meaning that
if any of us showed up to the track with
(16:01):
five thousand dollars, we could buy the horse out of
that race. Those races obviously much harder to handicap, but
there are guys and gals that do make a living
a handicap and the horses.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Journalism, sovereignty. It sounds like this is a theme, like
we're turning this into a politics podcast about the state
of the country. It's actually the name of two of
the horses that have the shortest dots currently as we
head to post coming out of Whisper Wednesday, Sandman, do
(16:38):
you have an opinion on any of these horses and
their chances to win the Derby or do you think
they're overpriced and you're going to stay away?
Speaker 3 (16:48):
Yeah, So I'll start with the last one that you mentioned, Sandman.
A couple of months ago. He was a top my
selections for the Derby. The interesting thing with Sandman a
couple of things. One a closer meaning that he's going
to do his best running late. He's not going to
be involved in the early stages of this race. So
if you bet Sandman and he's towards the back, that's
(17:10):
actually where you want him to be. You're hoping for
a fast, hot pace up front so that he has
something to run into. The challenge, as we talked about,
is in a twenty horse field. That means he's going
to need to work out a trip. Not always the
easiest thing to do, but I do see him, you know,
flying late and being in the mix. The other interesting
(17:32):
note on Sandman is he's breaking from the seventeen post.
The seventeen post is the only post that has never
won in the Kentucky Derby, so there's a little bit
of a curse and a jinx to the seventeen post.
So just something interesting there. Journalism. You mentioned he is
the morning line favorite. He is, you know, from all aspects,
(17:54):
he looks to be the best horse in this field.
Am I going to allow him to beat me? No?
But what I will say is that in his last
three starts he's only beaten a combined twelve horses his
last three starts, they were five horse fields. Yes, he
won all three of those races. He's going to need
to beat nineteen others come Saturday at post time. And so,
(18:17):
you know, I don't know as though that I love
that for him. And he found himself in some traffic
trouble in a five horse race. Imagine what it's going
to be in a twenty horse field. But again, I
do feel as though that he's the most talented horse
on paper and visually, and all signs are saying, you know,
he's training extremely well and he's ready to fire. But
(18:39):
you don't have a top jockey trainer combination for journalism
with trainer Mike McCarthy and jockey Umberto Respulli.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
What do you mean You're not going to allow journalism
to beat you.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
What I mean by that is in the way that
I structure my bets, is that I will be including
journalism in all of my bets. Nothing worse than when
you handicap a race, and you handicap it pretty accurately
and you're like, well, this is the best horse in
the race. I'm gonna look elsewhere to try to increase
the value for myself in the race. But I don't
(19:13):
want that horse that I genuinely believe to be the
most talented, best horse in the field to beat me,
to ruin my bets right, to blow my bets up,
So I will be including him in everything that I'm doing.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Chad just wanted to make sure so I understand.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Yeah, And it's interesting too, the Derby. The last three
years we've had some long shot horses win. Do you
have any bets for this season, like long shuts you're
taking a shot on, or do you think it's gonna
be heavily chalk this year. The one year I remember, Chad,
was the year I think we were That was the
same year we went down to Kentucky ourselves. The guy
was like added that day won the Derby. I mean
(19:49):
that was like the craziest one ever where some cross
right hit that at like one hundred and twenty to one,
betted down to I think what it closed that like
you remember was.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
Seventy eighty one.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Yeah, y I hit it.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
The books couldn't believe it. They moved it. They still
at that and it guy won it. So I would
love you for any long shots this year.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Yeah, So you know, and to your point, Simon, I
mean the last four years, we had Mandaloon in twenty
twenty one at twenty six to one, we had rich
Strike in twenty twenty two at eighty to one, we
had Mage in twenty three at fifteen to one, and
last year we had missed a Dan at eighteen to one.
Interestingly enough, my top choice in this year's Kentucky Derby
(20:29):
is the number seven Luxor Cafe, who is fifteen to one. So,
you know, trying to continue with that trend before the
last four years, I believe it was like eight straight
years that we had the favorite win. So you know,
it's either been favorite or pretty heavy long shot. And
the thing is, in a twenty horse field, even a
favorite typically you're going to get three four to one.
(20:51):
And in you know, in typical sports betting, you look
at three or four to one and we salivate, right
in horse racing, you look at three or four to
one and you're like, eh, that's okay because of these
the field sizes and what we've got going. So yeah,
but you know, to your point, Simon, the number seven
lux Or Cafe, he is coming over from Japan and
(21:11):
so he has run in some pretty high quality races
over in Japan. He's run against deeper fields ten twelve,
sixteen horse fields and he's been able to win. He
also the father or the sire of Luxor Cafe is
American Pharaoh who back in twenty fifteen won the Kentucky Derby,
went on to win the Preakness and then won the
(21:33):
Belmont to break the Triple Crown streak. So he's bred
to get the distance, and so he's the horse that
I'll be using on top. And then in terms of
some other long shots to consider, the number three, Final
Gambit is a price that I really like. He's another
one of these horses like we talked about Sandman, Final
Gambit is going to do his best running late, so
(21:56):
he is going to be far back early. So when
you see him far back early, don't mail it in.
Know that he's going to be coming late, which is
really exciting. We talked about Bob Bafford before he's got
the number four Rodriguez at twelve to one. Rodriguez ran
in a race called the Wood Memorial about a month
ago now and won that race fairly easily. He had
(22:19):
a pretty easy early pace and ended up opening up
in the lane on those horses and didn't really appear
to be asked. So those are the three horses that
interest me the most at longer odds.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Hold on A second luxer Cafe is the child of
American Pharaoh. How many children of American Pharaoh have run
in the Triple Crown since a three year old? Since
(22:56):
since American Pharaoh could have sired a three year old,
which would have been eighteen or nineteen, So the past
six years have any children of American Pharaoh run in
the Triple Crown?
Speaker 3 (23:08):
I do not believe.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
So how is this not a bigger story?
Speaker 3 (23:13):
I agree? And you know it was funny because when
American Pharaoh first went to be a sire and in
the breeding shed, he had one of the highest prices
in order to breed to him. That price has come
down because none of his offspring have won one of
these three Triple Crown races. So it's only a matter
of time before we get an American pharaoh sired horse
(23:36):
to win the Triple Crown. I loved American Pharaoh when
he won in twenty fifteen, so again, definitely not gonna
miss out. When you have a horse at fifteen to one,
like lux or cafete.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Do we have any idea how much Luxer cafe cost
to be made.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Let's see, let's see if they have it listed. He no,
because it was a private purchase, so don't know how
much you know it cost to acquire.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
How much was American Pharaoh getting per pop? You know?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
So he when he was first in the breeding shed,
it was like one hundred and fifty thousand dollars per
live offspring for American Pharaoh. It's now down under one
hundred thousand, but it's still crazy to think just to
breed to American Pharaoh that you're spending that kind of money.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
I feel like for me to get my kids off
my hands, I might have to pay someone one hundred
and fifty thousand dollars. In fact, if we're talking about
college that it's more than that, like usually do double.
So that's quite that's quite the package for American Pharaoh, Simon,
(24:49):
it's pretty good.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Yeah, not a bad stud feed, but it's also pretty interesting.
The fact that what you just brought up, it's like genetics.
No one's cracked the code. They're just it's still doing
the same thing they did, you know, back when they
first established breeding horses, and was Saudi Arabia who takes crown?
Like is that who? Yeah, they take So it's just
(25:11):
funny that it's been thousands of years, Chad and it's
still the same old nothing's changed.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Dude, you're not joking. Literally. I did this story for
Sports Illustrated in nineteen ninety eight. Okay, like Mike, Mike
played football at Ithaca and this is like when Mike
was still playing pee wee in you know, in New Haven,
(25:37):
but which is probably a rough pee wee league, if
I got to say. But like I went out to
simon a horse farm in outside Philadelphia because like, there's
a ton of farms with horses outside Philly. And the
story was all about humans as as runners, especially in
(25:58):
speed races, have been able to evolve over the one
hundred or so years that people have been running the
one hundred meters dash or whatever it is, Like they
have gotten faster, right, They've improved their training, they have
improved their form. You know, bodies have evolved over time
to allow humans to run faster. Horses basically run the same,
(26:21):
and nothing has changed in the evolution of horses. Mike,
do you have any idea why that is like not
to put you on the spot as sort of an
equine specialist. But isn't that strange that to Simon's point,
nothing in this sport has changed. They cannot figure out
how to draft a quarterback, they cannot figure out how
(26:43):
to make a triple crown winner, and they cannot figure
out how to get these horses to run faster.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
It chatted, So it really is. It's wild. You know.
One of my favorite horse racing movie, Secretariat, so Ogden Phipps,
who is you know, a predominant horse breeder and owner.
In the movie, he talks about and obviously based on
you know, real life, he talks about when Penny Chenery
acquired Secretariat. He had there was a coin flip that
(27:12):
they did to choose. There were two horses that they
could choose from between Ogden Phipps and you know, mister
Chennery's farm and Ogden Phipps chose the horse that was
bred to get the distance, that was bred to be
this great horse. Yet Penny wanted Secretariat. She got him
by luck of a coin flip, and Ogden Phipps, you know,
(27:33):
sat there and he said in the movie it was
something I forget the exact line, but it was something like,
you know, the best looking horse, the prettiest horse in
his barn, but you know, couldn't outrun his accountants. And
so there's just so much that goes to chance when
you're talking about, you know, breeding these animals, and at
the end of the day, you have to remember they
are animals. We don't always know what's going on, you know,
(27:54):
we can't they can't speak to us obviously, So it
is just such an interesting phenomenon to think about.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
My favorite horse racing movie is Seabiscuit, and I happen
to see Seabiscuit like right after I think our first
son was born, and there's like some child related tragedy
in the movie. I don't want to ruin it for
(28:20):
people who over the past twenty years haven't seen it.
And my wife and I was the first night out
after we had had our kid, and I remember my
wife and I are in the theater full balling like
in the movie because of what happens to the kid
in the movie, and we are just in agony. We're like,
(28:41):
I can't believe this is our first night out. But
Seabiscuit brilliant book great movie, Simon, do you have a
favorite horse racing movie?
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Well, I was gonna say, is Sea Biscuit? Is that
the anomaly of like a horse that genetically had a
huge heart?
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Isn't that that secretary of secretariat?
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So isn't that what you're speaking about chat where it's
like we've had one like that, we.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
Know about one genetic freak freak. Yeah, Simon, you and
I are the secretariats of sports betting podcasting. All right,
so you've given us long shots, We've gone through the
current shortest odds. You know. Reminder of everybody, this is
all parimutual. It can all change. These odds are constantly changing, Mike.
(29:30):
One of my favorite sayings in all of sports betting
it's becoming less and less relevant, is whisper Wednesday. For
those who don't know, it's sort of after horses have
had a couple days of running and training and practice
at the derby, sort of around the stables, all the
handicappers start talking on Wednesday. That's a really important day
(29:54):
for practice runs, and so odds start to change more aggressively.
Have you heard anything about horses that are getting whispered
about that hadn't otherwise been.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
I mean obviously Journalism, right, everybody has said that they
love this horse. He's looked really good. The other interesting
horse is Burnham Square, the number nine. He's a horse
who is gelded, which means that he can no longer
have offspring. You can surmize what that really means, but
(30:27):
he can no longer have offspring. He's been gelded, yet
he has still been, as they've been saying, kicking the
barn doors down. He is a somewhat of a quirky horse,
but one who just loves being out on the track.
So there has been some talk about how he's been training.
He's a very aggressive horse. But a lot of the
reports are coming back that Journalism looks fantastic, has been
(30:50):
training great, and there are a lot of people that
are very high on this horse.
Speaker 1 (30:54):
All right, so you know, we can bet Journalism. By Saturday,
probably we'd be down to two to one. So let's
have a little bit of fun. You don't have to
bet just you know, win play show. You don't have
to bet on one horse to just win. There are
a lot of exotics you can bet in any horse race.
(31:17):
But obviously more people paying attention to the derby. It
give us some ideas on what you would bet for
exactas trifectas. You just talked about how you'll keep journalism
in most of your bets so you can't get beat
by it, But explain a little bit of what that
means someone's just listening in, and then what kind of
boxes you would put together.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Yeah, So an exacta is betting on the first the
top two finishers, so first and second place. So you know,
in terms of normal sports betting, it's almost like a
parlay within one game if you will. It's a same
game parlay if you will. And so an exacta the
first two finishers. And again, as you mentioned, Chad, you
can choose multiple horses in each spot, in first and second.
(31:59):
So the way I'm going to build my exacta this
year is I'm going to have the number seven lux
Or Cafe and the number eight Journalism in the first
place spot, and then in the second place spot, I'm
going to have the number three who is Final Gambit,
the number four who is Rodriguez, the seven lux Or Cafe,
the eight Journalism, the ten Grande and the seventeen Sandman.
(32:24):
If you make that as a one dollar bet. It's
only going to cost you ten bucks. The average Derby
Exacta payout is in the multiple hundreds of dollars, So
you're investing ten bucks to you know, ideally get ten
twenty thirty to one odds on that bet. What about trifectus, Yeah,
so trifecta similar to an EXACTA top three finishers. This
(32:48):
you can do for a fifty cent base bet. So
my trifecta ticket is going to look like this, It's
going to look like seven to eight in first In
the second position it will be three seven eight nine
ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. And then in the third position,
(33:08):
just gonna repeat that second position three four seven eight
nine ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. Sounds like a lot, but
for fifty cents, it's a fifty six dollars bet. The
average Derby Trifecta pays over twenty two hundred dollars, So
you're talking about a fifty six dollars bet where you're
(33:31):
gonna get about twenty to one on your bet.
Speaker 1 (33:35):
Oh my god, we are so in. Simon is punching
that in as we speak, because who doesn't like a
big powd We are in a big payout fever here
in the United States. We love betting a little and
getting a lot. We like winning the lottery. We're gonna
do it, am I right, Simon?
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Have you ever hit one of them?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
As the track chat, I've honestly only ever hitted at
a dog park. I've ever hit a I've hitited a
dog track. I've never hit it at a horse track.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
I've never hit it anywhere.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
No. Oh man, it's a high of eies.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
It's the best.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Hey, Simon, did you know that Mike County I just
mentioned he played football at Ithaca. We hear it. The
favorites want to shout you out because you are a
sports legend. Back in twenty eleven, you had an eighty
eight yard pick six to become the first player in
Ithaca Bombers football history to score three defensive touchdowns in
(34:34):
your career. I know Matt Mitchell wants me to say
that on behalf of all Upstate New York's scumbags like himself.
Congrats on your status as a regional legend. For that alone,
anything you sire is worth one hundred and fifty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
Well, thank you, guys. It was a fun four years
at Ithaca and was lucky to have some opportunities to
see the end zone from the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Fantastic we get we do they make you watch road
Trip the movie to get into Ithaca?
Speaker 3 (35:10):
Is that part of it?
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Is that part of it?
Speaker 3 (35:12):
You know it? You know it. You've got to become
accustomed to road Trip and what's going on?
Speaker 1 (35:16):
Gotta wait? Was road Trip? Amy Smart?
Speaker 3 (35:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (35:19):
I had a huge question on her back then. Yeah,
fam get in famous videotape scene with her great call Chad.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
It's impossible not to have a crush on Amy Smart
no matter how old you are. Once you've seen road
Trip listen. If you're looking for even more Derby coverage,
check out the Betting preview of the Action Network podcast
with Mike and our longtime horse racing handicapper Sean Zarillo
that's available now. Also, don't forget go subscribe at Real
(35:48):
Chad Milman on YouTube. Simon and I Real return with
our next episode of the Favorites Tuesday on the Action
Network YouTube page. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
get your pods rate would you subscribe? Leave us five stars?
Say if you want feedback is again until next time.
Love You Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
of the Volume Podcast Network. I I I'm Chad Millman
of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre might beff professional
better sign in hunt, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
May first, you know what that means the calendar turns.
The mar Key event on the betting calendar in May
is the Kentucky Derby, which is this Saturday at Churchill
Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The one hundred and fifty first
(00:49):
running of the Roses, the greatest two minutes in sports,
an American gambling event like none other. Here to help
all of us bet and profit on all the festivities
in Louisville. Because it's not just about the Derby. Is
our Action Network horse racing contributor, one of the very
(01:09):
best handicappers in the business, Chicago's finest. We do nothing
if not promote anybody from the great city of Chicago.
Mister Mike Conti, how are.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
You, buddy, I'm great. Thanks for having me, guys, super excited.
One of my favorite weekends of the year.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Listen before we get deep deep, into Mike and all
his handicapping knowledge. Quick announcement, I want everyone this is big.
This is very big. As a brand new everyone listening
to the show needs to go subscribe to at Real
Chad Milman on YouTube. That's right, I'm launching a YouTube channel.
We're gonna air clips from the favorites. We're gonna air
(01:50):
the show live there. It's gonna signlecast on Action and
on at at Real Chad Milman. We're gonna have clips
on a Egeler basis. I'm going to react to news
and infro from the betting world. I'm going to throw
up opinions. I'm going to share nuggets from the book
I'm reporting, which anybody who likes anything about sports betting
(02:13):
is going to enjoy. Like the nugget I had the
other day, why do people call it handicapping? Go subscribe
to at Real Chad Melman. We are just launching it.
Get after it. I will remind you often at Real
Chad Melman. Mike, we talked about this on the show
the other day. Do you know why it's called handicapping?
Speaker 3 (02:37):
You know when you just said that chat, I was
thinking about it and I, much to my mother's dismay.
I could read a horse racing program before I could
read a book. I actually don't know why it's called
handicapping though.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
It's called handicapping because the guy who ran the Jockey
Club in London in I think the late seventeen hundre
undreds or eighteen hundreds, in order to make the races
more interesting and get more action from betters, he would
(03:10):
add weights to the horses that were the fastest to
handicap them. And so they continue to call it handicapping
throughout the history of all of sports betting. Isn't that cool?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I love that. I had no idea.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
That's amazing, great little nugget, right, that's what Listen, Mike,
you can get stuff like that at at Real Chad
Moment on YouTube. So I hope you'll go subscribe. Can
you explain for people you just said you knew how
to read basically the daily racing form before you could
read anything else. Explain how that happened.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah. So, growing up, my father owned a sports bar
in New Haven, Connecticut, and you know, lo and behold,
there was this is back in the day when you
had to call in your bets and there was a
phone booth in the corner of the bar, and that
phone booth was reserved to go make your bets. And
so every Saturday morning we'd go, we'd open up the
(04:11):
bar and we'd sit there with the Daily Racing Form
and learned how to read the papers from all of
the cast of characters that were at the bar at
eight am on a Saturday morning. And that was my
first kind of soire into horse racing.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
God, that's amazing, you know what's great? A I love
that it was New Haven, which is about forty five
minutes from where I am in West Hartford, Connecticut. But
since we're on the subject, the Daily Racing Form was
like the key driver of the modern way sports betting
(04:49):
happens in the country because the entire thing was about
the dissemination of information and it was owned and there
were literal wars. There were wars over the the control
of this information gangster wars. Simon, you're shaking your head
like you've either heard this or you're excited about it.
Of people getting killed because to control what was basically
(05:11):
the wire services that communicated who was winning and losing
horse racing bets throughout the country. Mike, do you know
this story.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I actually did not know that story either, Simon.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Do you know this story.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
I've heard about it just from Yeah, like what you're
talking about old guys telling stories about horse racing.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Yeah, so like the Annenberg media fortune. Annenberg, which I
think you know, endows the USC Journalism School. It's a
massive philanthropic organization in Philadelphia, Simon, because it owned the
Annenberg family owned the Philadelphian Choir. The guy made his
money as a circulation director for William Randolph Hurst and
(05:56):
he was running newspapers in Chicago, in Milwaukee, Matt Mitchell
in Milwaukee. And this was literally like bloody, bloody business.
People were being killed to own street corners where they
could distribute newspapers because it was so much money. Annenberg
was really good at this. Hearst loved him. He made
(06:17):
a lot of money, and then he bought the Daily
Racing Form, and the Daily Racing Form became his primary
driver of income as he grew a massive, massive media empire,
and he had the Daily Racing Form for twenty years
and this became the primary way through the telegraph that
(06:37):
a lot of information was distributed for sports betters. It's
a phenomenal story and everyone's going to get to read
about it in my book when it comes out in
August of twenty twenty seven. And now you get to
see this clip on at Real Chad Nolan god on YouTube.
I did that all off the top of my head.
It just happened, Jenn.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
I feel like all you're doing right now is figuring
out that America's literally built on guys with sports betting
and a lot of killing. All these businesses in America
you're finding out are like, oh yeah, this guy want
to buy sports betting, this guy wanted by horse racing.
It's like, what are you uncovering right now? It seems
pretty incredible.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
It's pretty incredible simon how many businesses that we know
of today as being legit businesses started as completely illegitimate
businesses with deep, deep roots in criminal activity that over
time evolved. And we can look at it right now,
(07:31):
look at sports betting, look at a lot of the
drug trade, like in every single capacity, some of these
things over time, by the way alcohol distribution in the twenties,
you know, then became something that was legit and legal,
like all these things. So much of what powers the
domestic economy started as stuff that was very very illicit.
(07:55):
But what's not illicit, it's trying to win money. The
Kentucky Derby, Mike, the Derby is a different race for
people who don't know, explain how it's different than you know,
regular stakes races, than the other triple Crown races. Give
people the differences.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Yeah, So, first and foremost, a horse can only run
in the Kentucky Derby one time in his or her life.
It is only for three year old horses. I say
his or hers. Most of the time it is for
three year old colts, male horses. That's not to exclude
the phillies, the females. They can run. It is always
(08:35):
the first Saturday in May. Most of the time it
is the most it's the deepest field. So there are
twenty horses in every year's Kentucky Derby. Most of the
time these horses at most have run against ten twelve
other horses. So they get one chance at this they
you know, you get one chance. It's the deepest field
that they're going to run in, and up to this
(08:56):
point in their careers, this is the longest race out
of my in a quarter that these horses have ever run.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Is it harder for these horses.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Absolutely, you know, I think for a number of reasons. One,
you talk about the crowd noise, right, horses definitely react
to the noise. And when you think about, you know,
how packed the stands are and how packed Churchill Downs is,
the infield and the grand stands, there's a lot of
noise for these horses. There's a lot going on. Again,
it is a twenty horse field. A couple of years
(09:29):
ago they actually just created a new starting gate for
the Kentucky Derby so that the one hole wasn't at
such a disadvantage starting on the turn. But with that
now the starting gates are a little bit tighter, So
now you've got a deeper field, a tighter starting gate,
all of the noise going a mile and a quarter.
And you know, these young three year old horses. You know,
(09:51):
for those that don't know, horses cannot start racing until
they're two, and most of them start racing, you know,
mid summer of their two year old year. So you're
talking about horses that have less than a year of
total experience ever racing, that are now coming into the
biggest race of their lives.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Yeah, whenever I watch the Derby and you see them
packing the horses into the gates. I always feel the
worst for the horses that have to be in there
early because even though it takes maybe two minutes total
to get twenty horses into the gate, these are really
(10:29):
young horses. And the horses in the number one position
and the number two position versus if it goes all
the way out to twenty, they're in there for a
long time, and it seems like it starts to stress
the animal a little bit like that in itself seemed
like a disadvantage.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
Without a doubt, you know. And that's it's a very
interesting thing, is like how does and you have to
give the assistant starter. So those are the guys who
are loading the horses and then they're standing in the
starting gate with the horses. Their job is to help
keep those horses calm. Obviously, the jockey, you know, is
on board, and that's part of the jocks job. But
you know, an overlooked aspect of this is the assistant
starter helping these horses to stay calm while they load
(11:11):
before they open the gates.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
When you watch this, uh, do you get a sense
even from that moment, like if you've got a bet
that is going to crash as as soon as the
gates open, just by how the horses are reacting to
being put in the starting.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Gate without a doubt. I mean, there's a couple of
things you look at right like how are the horses
acting in the starting gate? Are they relaxed or you know,
are they tossing their head around? The worst thing, obviously
is if they have to back a horse out, because
that's only going to delay the start even further. And
then once you know those starting gates open, there's a
huge roar from the crowd and you're talking about twenty
(11:51):
horses all sprinting right to that first turn. You know,
there are horses, especially the speed horses, that the race
is one or lost in the first few jump for them,
depending upon how well they break.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, you just said, this is such a huge feel
of twenty horses, Like what jumps out to you? Those
horses you're just right away getting out of there. You
don't only want to bet out of this field right now?
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, So you know, in terms of horses that I'm tossing,
the first horse is the number thirteen publisher. He's a maiden,
and for those unfamiliar, a maiden means that they've never
won a race. So it is so unique that we
have a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. In recent memory,
I can't remember another maiden that ran in the Kentucky Derby.
(12:34):
So first and foremost, I'll be tossing the number thirteen Publisher.
I'm also tossing the number eleven Flying Mohawk, the number
twelve East Avenue, who appears to be the pace of
the race and the fastest early horse. I don't think
that he's going to be able to last. The number
twenty zeroen Almighty. The trainer actually didn't want to run
in this race, but obviously every owner's dream is to
(12:57):
get their horse to the Kentucky Derby. So the owners
of number twenty on Almighty are the ones who really
pushed for this race because of that. If the trainer
doesn't want to really be in the race, I don't
really want that horse on my ticket. Number fifteen Render Judgment.
The cool story to number fifteen Render Judgment is he
is Toby Keith, Rest in Peace. He owns a stable
(13:20):
of horses, and did own a stable of horses that's
still in his name. Render Judgment is one of Toby
Keith's the first runner for Toby in the Derby, but
I am tossing that horse. The number one Citizen Bull
is another horse that I will be tossing. And then
there are two Japanese horses in this race, one of
whom I like. The other one I'm tossing. The one
(13:40):
that I'm tossing is number six, Admire Daytona.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Bob Baffert coming back, been away a while? What do
handicappers think about Baffort? What do they think of his history?
Both the good and the bad. For those who don't know,
Bob Baffert obviously decade long, decade's long career as a
legendary trainer, winning Triple Crown races, but also suspended the
(14:06):
past few years because of drug because he was drugging horses.
Is that right? Am I allowed to say that?
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, okay, because he was drugging horses. So this is
his first year back. Do you have an opinion on
Baffort as a trainer, both the good and the bad?
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Look this is so. Bafford's got two horses in here.
One of them is one of the horses that I'm tossing,
number one Citizen Bowl. The other one we'll talk about
in a little while. Is number four Rodriguez? Look like
you said, Chad, Bob Bafford is one of the greatest
horse trainers of all time. He's had two Triple Crown
winners in terms of winning the actual Triple Crown, not
(14:45):
just winning the Derby or one of the other Triple
Crown races. He's a top notch trainer. You know, Do
I love Bob Bafford, No, But he's a trainer that
you know when he's putting a horse in the race,
that the horse is going to most likely be live.
And so you've got to consider even though I'm throwing
out one of his two runners in.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Here, here's a random question. Can you make a living
as a handicapper of horses these days?
Speaker 3 (15:17):
There are people that do? You know? For me, it's
much more of the fun and the hobby of it,
But there are definitely people that make a living handicapping
the horses, right, And these weekends are the best weekends
because you mentioned before, Chad, you know, graded steaks races
are the premier races of horse racing, and there are
three graded stakes races, Grade ones, which is the highest level,
(15:39):
Grade two, and Grade three those are your top tier races,
and that's where, in my opinion, you get horses that
most likely are going to run to their form. You have,
you can draw a better opinion of it, you know,
But on any given Thursday afternoon when they're running a
you know, a claiming five thousand dollars race, meaning that
if any of us showed up to the track with
(16:01):
five thousand dollars, we could buy the horse out of
that race. Those races obviously much harder to handicap, but
there are guys and gals that do make a living
a handicap and the horses.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Journalism, sovereignty. It sounds like this is a theme, like
we're turning this into a politics podcast about the state
of the country. It's actually the name of two of
the horses that have the shortest dots currently as we
head to post coming out of Whisper Wednesday, Sandman, do
(16:38):
you have an opinion on any of these horses and
their chances to win the Derby or do you think
they're overpriced and you're going to stay away?
Speaker 3 (16:48):
Yeah, So I'll start with the last one that you mentioned, Sandman.
A couple of months ago. He was a top my
selections for the Derby. The interesting thing with Sandman a
couple of things. One a closer meaning that he's going
to do his best running late. He's not going to
be involved in the early stages of this race. So
if you bet Sandman and he's towards the back, that's
(17:10):
actually where you want him to be. You're hoping for
a fast, hot pace up front so that he has
something to run into. The challenge, as we talked about,
is in a twenty horse field. That means he's going
to need to work out a trip. Not always the
easiest thing to do, but I do see him, you know,
flying late and being in the mix. The other interesting
(17:32):
note on Sandman is he's breaking from the seventeen post.
The seventeen post is the only post that has never
won in the Kentucky Derby, so there's a little bit
of a curse and a jinx to the seventeen post.
So just something interesting there. Journalism. You mentioned he is
the morning line favorite. He is, you know, from all aspects,
(17:54):
he looks to be the best horse in this field.
Am I going to allow him to beat me? No?
But what I will say is that in his last
three starts he's only beaten a combined twelve horses his
last three starts, they were five horse fields. Yes, he
won all three of those races. He's going to need
to beat nineteen others come Saturday at post time. And so,
(18:17):
you know, I don't know as though that I love
that for him. And he found himself in some traffic
trouble in a five horse race. Imagine what it's going
to be in a twenty horse field. But again, I
do feel as though that he's the most talented horse
on paper and visually, and all signs are saying, you know,
he's training extremely well and he's ready to fire. But
(18:39):
you don't have a top jockey trainer combination for journalism
with trainer Mike McCarthy and jockey Umberto Respulli.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
What do you mean You're not going to allow journalism
to beat you.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
What I mean by that is in the way that
I structure my bets, is that I will be including
journalism in all of my bets. Nothing worse than when
you handicap a race, and you handicap it pretty accurately
and you're like, well, this is the best horse in
the race. I'm gonna look elsewhere to try to increase
the value for myself in the race. But I don't
(19:13):
want that horse that I genuinely believe to be the
most talented, best horse in the field to beat me,
to ruin my bets right, to blow my bets up,
So I will be including him in everything that I'm doing.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Chad just wanted to make sure so I understand.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Yeah, And it's interesting too, the Derby. The last three
years we've had some long shot horses win. Do you
have any bets for this season, like long shuts you're
taking a shot on, or do you think it's gonna
be heavily chalk this year. The one year I remember, Chad,
was the year I think we were That was the
same year we went down to Kentucky ourselves. The guy
was like added that day won the Derby. I mean
(19:49):
that was like the craziest one ever where some cross
right hit that at like one hundred and twenty to one,
betted down to I think what it closed that like
you remember was.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
Seventy eighty one.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Yeah, y I hit it.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
The books couldn't believe it. They moved it. They still
at that and it guy won it. So I would
love you for any long shots this year.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Yeah, So you know, and to your point, Simon, I
mean the last four years, we had Mandaloon in twenty
twenty one at twenty six to one, we had rich
Strike in twenty twenty two at eighty to one, we
had Mage in twenty three at fifteen to one, and
last year we had missed a Dan at eighteen to one.
Interestingly enough, my top choice in this year's Kentucky Derby
(20:29):
is the number seven Luxor Cafe, who is fifteen to one. So,
you know, trying to continue with that trend before the
last four years, I believe it was like eight straight
years that we had the favorite win. So you know,
it's either been favorite or pretty heavy long shot. And
the thing is, in a twenty horse field, even a
favorite typically you're going to get three four to one.
(20:51):
And in you know, in typical sports betting, you look
at three or four to one and we salivate, right
in horse racing, you look at three or four to
one and you're like, eh, that's okay because of these
the field sizes and what we've got going. So yeah,
but you know, to your point, Simon, the number seven
lux Or Cafe, he is coming over from Japan and
(21:11):
so he has run in some pretty high quality races
over in Japan. He's run against deeper fields ten twelve,
sixteen horse fields and he's been able to win. He
also the father or the sire of Luxor Cafe is
American Pharaoh who back in twenty fifteen won the Kentucky Derby,
went on to win the Preakness and then won the
(21:33):
Belmont to break the Triple Crown streak. So he's bred
to get the distance, and so he's the horse that
I'll be using on top. And then in terms of
some other long shots to consider, the number three, Final
Gambit is a price that I really like. He's another
one of these horses like we talked about Sandman, Final
Gambit is going to do his best running late, so
(21:56):
he is going to be far back early. So when
you see him far back early, don't mail it in.
Know that he's going to be coming late, which is
really exciting. We talked about Bob Bafford before he's got
the number four Rodriguez at twelve to one. Rodriguez ran
in a race called the Wood Memorial about a month
ago now and won that race fairly easily. He had
(22:19):
a pretty easy early pace and ended up opening up
in the lane on those horses and didn't really appear
to be asked. So those are the three horses that
interest me the most at longer odds.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Hold on A second luxer Cafe is the child of
American Pharaoh. How many children of American Pharaoh have run
in the Triple Crown since a three year old? Since
(22:56):
since American Pharaoh could have sired a three year old,
which would have been eighteen or nineteen, So the past
six years have any children of American Pharaoh run in
the Triple Crown?
Speaker 3 (23:08):
I do not believe.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
So how is this not a bigger story?
Speaker 3 (23:13):
I agree? And you know it was funny because when
American Pharaoh first went to be a sire and in
the breeding shed, he had one of the highest prices
in order to breed to him. That price has come
down because none of his offspring have won one of
these three Triple Crown races. So it's only a matter
of time before we get an American pharaoh sired horse
(23:36):
to win the Triple Crown. I loved American Pharaoh when
he won in twenty fifteen, so again, definitely not gonna
miss out. When you have a horse at fifteen to one,
like lux or cafete.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Do we have any idea how much Luxer cafe cost
to be made.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Let's see, let's see if they have it listed. He no,
because it was a private purchase, so don't know how
much you know it cost to acquire.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
How much was American Pharaoh getting per pop? You know?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
So he when he was first in the breeding shed,
it was like one hundred and fifty thousand dollars per
live offspring for American Pharaoh. It's now down under one
hundred thousand, but it's still crazy to think just to
breed to American Pharaoh that you're spending that kind of money.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
I feel like for me to get my kids off
my hands, I might have to pay someone one hundred
and fifty thousand dollars. In fact, if we're talking about
college that it's more than that, like usually do double.
So that's quite that's quite the package for American Pharaoh, Simon,
(24:49):
it's pretty good.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Yeah, not a bad stud feed, but it's also pretty interesting.
The fact that what you just brought up, it's like genetics.
No one's cracked the code. They're just it's still doing
the same thing they did, you know, back when they
first established breeding horses, and was Saudi Arabia who takes crown?
Like is that who? Yeah, they take So it's just
(25:11):
funny that it's been thousands of years, Chad and it's
still the same old nothing's changed.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Dude, you're not joking. Literally. I did this story for
Sports Illustrated in nineteen ninety eight. Okay, like Mike, Mike
played football at Ithaca and this is like when Mike
was still playing pee wee in you know, in New Haven,
(25:37):
but which is probably a rough pee wee league, if
I got to say. But like I went out to
simon a horse farm in outside Philadelphia because like, there's
a ton of farms with horses outside Philly. And the
story was all about humans as as runners, especially in
(25:58):
speed races, have been able to evolve over the one
hundred or so years that people have been running the
one hundred meters dash or whatever it is, Like they
have gotten faster, right, They've improved their training, they have
improved their form. You know, bodies have evolved over time
to allow humans to run faster. Horses basically run the same,
(26:21):
and nothing has changed in the evolution of horses. Mike,
do you have any idea why that is like not
to put you on the spot as sort of an
equine specialist. But isn't that strange that to Simon's point,
nothing in this sport has changed. They cannot figure out
how to draft a quarterback, they cannot figure out how
(26:43):
to make a triple crown winner, and they cannot figure
out how to get these horses to run faster.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
It chatted, So it really is. It's wild. You know.
One of my favorite horse racing movie, Secretariat, so Ogden Phipps,
who is you know, a predominant horse breeder and owner.
In the movie, he talks about and obviously based on
you know, real life, he talks about when Penny Chenery
acquired Secretariat. He had there was a coin flip that
(27:12):
they did to choose. There were two horses that they
could choose from between Ogden Phipps and you know, mister
Chennery's farm and Ogden Phipps chose the horse that was
bred to get the distance, that was bred to be
this great horse. Yet Penny wanted Secretariat. She got him
by luck of a coin flip, and Ogden Phipps, you know,
(27:33):
sat there and he said in the movie it was
something I forget the exact line, but it was something like,
you know, the best looking horse, the prettiest horse in
his barn, but you know, couldn't outrun his accountants. And
so there's just so much that goes to chance when
you're talking about, you know, breeding these animals, and at
the end of the day, you have to remember they
are animals. We don't always know what's going on, you know,
(27:54):
we can't they can't speak to us obviously, So it
is just such an interesting phenomenon to think about.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
My favorite horse racing movie is Seabiscuit, and I happen
to see Seabiscuit like right after I think our first
son was born, and there's like some child related tragedy
in the movie. I don't want to ruin it for
(28:20):
people who over the past twenty years haven't seen it.
And my wife and I was the first night out
after we had had our kid, and I remember my
wife and I are in the theater full balling like
in the movie because of what happens to the kid
in the movie, and we are just in agony. We're like,
(28:41):
I can't believe this is our first night out. But
Seabiscuit brilliant book great movie, Simon, do you have a
favorite horse racing movie?
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Well, I was gonna say, is Sea Biscuit? Is that
the anomaly of like a horse that genetically had a
huge heart?
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Isn't that that secretary of secretariat?
Speaker 2 (29:01):
So isn't that what you're speaking about chat where it's
like we've had one like that, we.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
Know about one genetic freak freak. Yeah, Simon, you and
I are the secretariats of sports betting podcasting. All right,
so you've given us long shots, We've gone through the
current shortest odds. You know. Reminder of everybody, this is
all parimutual. It can all change. These odds are constantly changing, Mike.
(29:30):
One of my favorite sayings in all of sports betting
it's becoming less and less relevant, is whisper Wednesday. For
those who don't know, it's sort of after horses have
had a couple days of running and training and practice
at the derby, sort of around the stables, all the
handicappers start talking on Wednesday. That's a really important day
(29:54):
for practice runs, and so odds start to change more aggressively.
Have you heard anything about horses that are getting whispered
about that hadn't otherwise been.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
I mean obviously Journalism, right, everybody has said that they
love this horse. He's looked really good. The other interesting
horse is Burnham Square, the number nine. He's a horse
who is gelded, which means that he can no longer
have offspring. You can surmize what that really means, but
(30:27):
he can no longer have offspring. He's been gelded, yet
he has still been, as they've been saying, kicking the
barn doors down. He is a somewhat of a quirky horse,
but one who just loves being out on the track.
So there has been some talk about how he's been training.
He's a very aggressive horse. But a lot of the
reports are coming back that Journalism looks fantastic, has been
(30:50):
training great, and there are a lot of people that
are very high on this horse.
Speaker 1 (30:54):
All right, so you know, we can bet Journalism. By Saturday,
probably we'd be down to two to one. So let's
have a little bit of fun. You don't have to
bet just you know, win play show. You don't have
to bet on one horse to just win. There are
a lot of exotics you can bet in any horse race.
(31:17):
But obviously more people paying attention to the derby. It
give us some ideas on what you would bet for
exactas trifectas. You just talked about how you'll keep journalism
in most of your bets so you can't get beat
by it, But explain a little bit of what that
means someone's just listening in, and then what kind of
boxes you would put together.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Yeah, So an exacta is betting on the first the
top two finishers, so first and second place. So you know,
in terms of normal sports betting, it's almost like a
parlay within one game if you will. It's a same
game parlay if you will. And so an exacta the
first two finishers. And again, as you mentioned, Chad, you
can choose multiple horses in each spot, in first and second.
(31:59):
So the way I'm going to build my exacta this
year is I'm going to have the number seven lux
Or Cafe and the number eight Journalism in the first
place spot, and then in the second place spot, I'm
going to have the number three who is Final Gambit,
the number four who is Rodriguez, the seven lux Or Cafe,
the eight Journalism, the ten Grande and the seventeen Sandman.
(32:24):
If you make that as a one dollar bet. It's
only going to cost you ten bucks. The average Derby
Exacta payout is in the multiple hundreds of dollars, So
you're investing ten bucks to you know, ideally get ten
twenty thirty to one odds on that bet. What about trifectus, Yeah,
so trifecta similar to an EXACTA top three finishers. This
(32:48):
you can do for a fifty cent base bet. So
my trifecta ticket is going to look like this, It's
going to look like seven to eight in first In
the second position it will be three seven eight nine
ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. And then in the third position,
(33:08):
just gonna repeat that second position three four seven eight
nine ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. Sounds like a lot, but
for fifty cents, it's a fifty six dollars bet. The
average Derby Trifecta pays over twenty two hundred dollars, So
you're talking about a fifty six dollars bet where you're
(33:31):
gonna get about twenty to one on your bet.
Speaker 1 (33:35):
Oh my god, we are so in. Simon is punching
that in as we speak, because who doesn't like a
big powd We are in a big payout fever here
in the United States. We love betting a little and
getting a lot. We like winning the lottery. We're gonna
do it, am I right, Simon?
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Have you ever hit one of them?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
As the track chat, I've honestly only ever hitted at
a dog park. I've ever hit a I've hitited a
dog track. I've never hit it at a horse track.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
I've never hit it anywhere.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
No. Oh man, it's a high of eies.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
It's the best.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Hey, Simon, did you know that Mike County I just
mentioned he played football at Ithaca. We hear it. The
favorites want to shout you out because you are a
sports legend. Back in twenty eleven, you had an eighty
eight yard pick six to become the first player in
Ithaca Bombers football history to score three defensive touchdowns in
(34:34):
your career. I know Matt Mitchell wants me to say
that on behalf of all Upstate New York's scumbags like himself.
Congrats on your status as a regional legend. For that alone,
anything you sire is worth one hundred and fifty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
Well, thank you, guys. It was a fun four years
at Ithaca and was lucky to have some opportunities to
see the end zone from the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Fantastic we get we do they make you watch road
Trip the movie to get into Ithaca?
Speaker 3 (35:10):
Is that part of it?
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Is that part of it?
Speaker 3 (35:12):
You know it? You know it. You've got to become
accustomed to road Trip and what's going on?
Speaker 1 (35:16):
Gotta wait? Was road Trip? Amy Smart?
Speaker 3 (35:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (35:19):
I had a huge question on her back then. Yeah,
fam get in famous videotape scene with her great call Chad.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
It's impossible not to have a crush on Amy Smart
no matter how old you are. Once you've seen road
Trip listen. If you're looking for even more Derby coverage,
check out the Betting preview of the Action Network podcast
with Mike and our longtime horse racing handicapper Sean Zarillo
that's available now. Also, don't forget go subscribe at Real
(35:48):
Chad Milman on YouTube. Simon and I Real return with
our next episode of the Favorites Tuesday on the Action
Network YouTube page. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
get your pods rate would you subscribe? Leave us five stars?
Say if you want feedback is again until next time.
Love You Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
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