June 3, 2025 • 41 mins
The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in the NBA Finals, with Game 1 taking place Thursday night in OKC. The Pacers are significant underdogs, with prevailing wisdom predicting an easy path to a ring for the Thunder. But looks can be deceiving, especially when gambling is involved. So Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome back NBA expert Matt Moore, who dives deep into this matchup and delivers a number of enticing ways to bet the series. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Shad Molman
of the Action Network. We are part of the Volume
podcast Network today. I am joined as always buy my cost,
my companion, Mike and Padre, my bff Professional Better, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Ed O, Simon Schad. How are we doing, brother dude?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
We had a little date night last week. You and
I we shared a cheese steak and Philly we ate
it on the back of your trunk, just sitting on
the bumper. Cars trying to go down one way streets,
horns blaring, bicycle cops coming around, not even taking notice
of the way you're illegally parked. We went to the
(00:57):
Phillies game. It was a perfect night in Philly, and
I will contend that one of the best sort of
leisurely sports experiences is going to Citizens Bank Ballpark to
watch the Phillies on a beautiful night with my bff Sigmon.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, it was a good night. Picked you up in
the M eight love showing off the car and BMW.
I know that you guys just sponsored JJ Reddick's podcast.
He's gone never coming back. If you want to come
sponsor me and chat, I literally drive an m E
come sponsor our show BMW. Please. Yeah, I picked up
Chat and I thought to myself, can Chat eat a
whole cheese steak? And I thought himself, I eat a
whole cheese steak before this baseball game. That's risky move
(01:44):
because we're all to be sitting in a ballpark for
four hours. So I took the I took the Dela Rossie,
which is you know, if you're a local, you know
the spot. It's known for its pizza and there's cheese steaks.
And yeah, I gave you the authentic experience eating on
the back of the car. I feel like is a
very city thing to do. And like Chad said, not
a single person paid us any type of mind. That's how,
(02:06):
you know, just normal it is in Philadelphia. And yeah,
the baseball game wise, you know, great seats. Chad and
I have done enough gambling and been in enough baseball games.
We knew that game was over within I think it
was a four to nothing at one point in the
land and we both threw knew each other just basically
said this game is over and our under bet is dead.
Of course it.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Was no, no, no, no, no, no, that's not how it went.
Number one, I will tell you I had half a
cheese steak. I don't think I've had as many calories
combined since we saw each other as I had in
that one half of a cheese steak. Number two. It
was Zach Wheeler Chris Sale. The game was rolling, nothing, nothing,
(02:51):
Everything's going great. And you looked at me at one
point and you said, how about that under And I said, well,
I said, what the fuck is your problem? Have you
never gambled before? That's like the most mush thing you
could say. Literally, the top half of the next inning,
(03:14):
the Braves score two runs. They got men on first
and third, they hit a double. No, they've scored two runs.
I look at you, I don't even say anything, and
you go, we're fine. As long as we avoid the meltdown,
we're fine. Next batter double, two more runs scored. It's
(03:36):
four nothing. Then then the Phillies strand the bases loaded,
so then it's still for nothing. And then it's like
a pitching change. In the sixth we're like, let's get
out of here. We get to the car, and because
your ma drives at the speed of light, we were
at my hotel and by the time I passed the
(03:57):
bar which was fifteen minutes later, Phillies were down. Ain't
nothing and they.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Have We dig get a lovely sunset though chat, which
made it all worth it.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
We got a lovely sunset. I texted it to my family.
Not a single person responded. Listen, we got a big,
big show today because the NBA Finals tip off. You
know how much I love the NBA. I know you
love the NBA. Uh. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been
amazing in these playoffs. Just defensive monsters, shake Gilgess, Alexander
(04:28):
has been obviously dominant offensively. Jalen Williams has been amazing
to me. The Pacers, sure, they're a surprise, but in
the second round. I remember sitting watching the games and
I said to my kid, I feel like the only
team in the Eastern Conference running any offensive plays right
now are the Innana Pacers. And if there is justice
(04:49):
in this world, we're going to get the two most sound, competent,
high IQ teams playing in the finals, the Pacers in
the Thunder. That's what we're getting. Thank god. NBA Analyst
Action Network OG one of the most respected media voices
(05:10):
in the NBA, one of the original original analytics gurus,
in the NBA covering everything NBA playoffs on buckets are Man,
Matt Moore, my brother, dude. I know, like the world
(05:30):
isn't thrilled. It's okay. See in Indie, I couldn't be happier.
I think it's the It's gonna be the best basketball
played that we could have possibly gotten.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, it's gonna be like if if if two teams
got together and every hoop head loved it and nobody heard.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
It, what does it make a sound? That's that's the
question here.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
And you know what, Like I muted ratings on social
media because I'm just like, I don't care, man, this
is gonna be an awesome series.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
You got Indiana Plan.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
They play so up tempo, it's not even like it's
not just fast break stuff, but they play they are
in your face, at your throat every single possession. I've
likened them to a punk rock team where they're just
like every single song they are going right for the kill.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
That's how they play.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
And then you got Oklahoma City, who have seriously bent
my brain as far as usually with turnovers. I'm like, well,
you know you can always like play sound and avoid Nope,
not versus OKC, they're just taking the ball from you
go in the other direction. It's gonna be, I think,
a really fun series of games. It's gonna be a
(06:34):
lot of athleticism, a lot of young guys. This is
the thunder of the second youngest team to make the
finals since the seventy seven Blazers. They be the second
youngest team to win the title since the seventy seven Blazers.
Pacers are on the young side. It's a new era
in the NBA. Can't wait to watch the series.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Yeah, it's interesting because they are both so good defensively,
also incredibly high teams. I keep I look at the
Pacers and I feel like their floor is so high.
I don't you know. Obviously they're stealing is higher than
anyone thought because they're they've made it to the finals,
(07:14):
but the floor of their baseline of competency is just
so high. And they're so complimentary Nemharv who got so
much credit in Game six guarding. Brunson has been like
that for two years as sort of a defensive stopper,
a guy who can dribble to the middle of the
lane to get his shot. Normally it's going in a
(07:35):
great mid range, Like, I love love this team, and
defensively the way they play, as you point out, it's
so different. The Pacers are so freaking physical. They might
not get as many turnovers, although the Knicks, you know,
we're incompetent. The thunder, it feels like sometimes you can't
(07:55):
get past center court because when they've got Caruso in
there and Williams in there, their arms are so long,
they're in every passing lane. They're brilliant defensively and so
different defensively.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yeah, okay, see, I haven't seen a defense like this
in a long time. Like you got to go back
to four pistons to get a team this good defensively.
Fifteen Warriors is up there, but I think this team's
is legitimately better defensively. Their ability, it's not just that
they steal passes, they're not gambling. It's that they're able
to maintain gap discipline while also forcing those turnovers.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
They're disrupting your handle.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Nikola Jokic has never been as flummix and as frustrated
as I saw him in that series, where there was
just possessions where he would turn and they're just taking
the ball away from him and the home court advantage,
I think is a huge part of that as well,
because in that building it's so loud, those fans are
so good.
Speaker 4 (08:49):
You can't hear the call outs of.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Hey guys coming behind you, like Wolflee get you can't
hear those callouts behind you, and then all of a sudden,
you turn and the ball is just being ripped away
from you and going the other direction. They have so
many good defenders, like Shae is second in the league
in steals. He is a perfectly good defender, and he's
like the seventh best defender on this squad. You got
home grind, you got Hartenstein defending down low. That allows
(09:13):
the guards to play more physical to the perimeter and
really attack the handle and force them the other direction.
You've got you know you mentioned Caruso. The secret guy
is Jalen Williams Jadab.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
When I did the.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
MVP work on Shay and I was watching all of
Shay's defensive possessions when he was on the court, the guy.
Speaker 4 (09:31):
That stood out was Jadub.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
He's everywhere, man like jumping up and stealing passes out
of the air from the guy right there, weak side
blocks underneath, challenging and being physical with guys like this
is he is such a game changer for them defensively
as good as Ludor is, and they all agree he's
the best defender as good as Caruso is. And everyone
(09:55):
agrees Caruso is the second best Caruso by the way,
says Case and Wallace is third. Jadov's versatility is what
like separates them. He is like he is that linebacker
that can play in coverage. He can blitz, he can drop,
he can play man like. He is unbelievable in how
many things that he can do and that you add
(10:16):
all that up together, and when they are in sync,
it is a nightmare for teams to deal with.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
So when you look at these teams, Uh, what's interesting
is you could argue this is the Paul George Finals
because both of these teams were built off of trades
when Paul George was the marquee player for each team.
Before we get into the game one breakdown, I know
(10:44):
Simon wants to like dig in on you know who's
going to cover in Game one, but just give a
little context because there is a great sort of sub
story here around how these teams were built with relations
to Paul George.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
One of the things I think is great is that
this wasn't you know.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
I have a lot of respect for pg did a
big feature on him a couple of years ago for
MVP for Action. He was kind of sit down with me,
but they didn't move on from PGS and like they
pulled the rug out from under him. This wasn't like
bringing Blake Griffin in and talking about him as a
legend and then shipping him out six months later. Paul
George was like, Hey, I want to go home, Like
I want to go back to la That's where I
want to be, and I'm teaming up with Kawhi and Sam.
(11:22):
Presty was like, we can make that happen, no problem,
and came to the Clippers with the terms of the
deal and they found it appropriate. Got shay Yos Alexander
and this great story from Presty where he talks about
how like he was still trying to deal with the
aftermath of moving Russ and like how dramatic it was
that offseason, Like that was really hard for him. Like
Russ was a big part of that organization internally. They
loved that guy. They still love that guy, and yet
(11:44):
he goes in and while he's doing all these calls
and trying to manage all that, Shay is already at
the facility already working out, Like he's already come in
and he's already getting a workout in, and he was
like he just remembered that as a really big moment.
And for Shay to have been the center piece of
that deal and for how that worked out, an absolutely
incredible story and it's a testament to how OKAC did
(12:05):
handle that transition. You know, they made the playoffs in
twenty twenty. This team didn't tank for half a decade.
They tanked for two years, missed the playoffs and the
third and then we're back in because they took the
time to really invest in player development and make sure
that they weren't just tanking to get star talent. They
were building what they had. They got lucky with some
of the some of the selections, but they were very
(12:27):
deliberate with how they built that team up. And for Indiana,
you know, Demonas Sabonis was considered a great player, like
he had taken into the playoffs, he was a really
big part of their team, and they risked it in
sending Sabonis for Tyres Halliburton because they recognized what Halliburton
could do. And then the trader I love is Siakam
One when's the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. The Kings were
(12:49):
so hot to trot for Siakam, Like every source I
talked to was like, Oh, yeah, he's gonna wind up
a King that they're not going to let him go.
There's no team that's going to come in over the top.
And the Pacers snuck in when there was a breakdown
in talks with the Kings and grab Sakam and that
foundationally transform their team. And last season when they made
up that run to the Eastern Conference Finals, they'd only
played with Siakam for two months. Hallie had been out
(13:12):
the entire first month that he was there, so they
had really no time to get together. And there was
these videos in the off season of Siakam brought in
guys to his his gym to do offseason workouts and
was in the young guys faces being like, you think
we've done something, We haven't done anything.
Speaker 4 (13:29):
I've been there and didn't go back.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
You cannot go in with that mentality, Like it got
me Brady to run through a wall for him.
Speaker 4 (13:36):
And you see the intensity of this team plays with.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
It's rough for PG to look like this, but I
got to say, like the moves have worked out absolutely
terrific with both teams and how they built these squads.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Yeah, like PG, the picks they got the Pacers got
when they traded Paul George. You see that all over
the court right today for that for both both of
these teams were literally built by trading Paul George. H Simon,
I appreciate your patience, but I just wanted to make
(14:07):
it clear this is the Paul George Finals.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah, and the okay see thing has been crazy of
just how dams they've been. But if you watch the
playoffs like most fans have, Denver was the real test,
right they they weren't a shoeing to beat that team
like Denver easily could have won that series. And the reason,
you know, people I listened to that Saty loss is
because the rotation, right, okay see, was deeper they had
the guys, is there a single thing you look at
(14:30):
this Pacers team they can attack this okay thing, okay
see team that gives them an advantage Like what are
you trying to grasp at with this Pacers team? Because
everyone I talk to you, that's no's basketball. It's just
like you kind of need a miracle like the one
you had with the Knicks against the Boston team, Like,
is that the same kind of scenario here?
Speaker 3 (14:47):
Yeah, it's not great, not great, Simon. It's not a
great look for them in their situation. The model for me,
like there's other ways that they could do this if
they still game two, but for me, it comes down
to Game one. Is that if you like Pacers, I
think you should be on Pacers Game one, Pacers series, right,
and you're gonna get.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
A big number on that.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
They gotta steal game one because they gotta follow the
script of Denver. This is where I have a hard
time trying to get the value on the number, because
I think the market is ahead of where I've got,
Like it is definitively ahead of where I've got this
this power rated. That was a big reason I was
all in on Indiana in the last round is I
was I'm higher on Indiana on power rating and was
lower on New York And the market is just like
way ahead here on OKC, Like I make this minus
(15:25):
five to fourteen, it's minus seven hundred in the market
Oh so you want Indiana didn't say that. That's not
something that makes me feel good. If they can steal
game one, you have to factor in. In any thunder series,
you're gonna get blown out twice. In OKAC, it's just
like you gotta bake that in. Like I literally had
to run a deviation on model just to be like,
I need you to give me two blowouts and OKC,
(15:47):
and just like, what does that look like from a
number perspective, whether it's game two, game seven, game five,
Game seven, game five, game two, whatever, you're gonna lose
two by twenty or more. In OKC, they just do
that to you. But if they could steal game one,
all right, now you're in the same Denver script. They
come back and they wax you in game two, no problem.
You come home up to up split one one. That
(16:08):
game three spot at the field House, no finals since
two thousand building is gonna be raucous. OKC does underperform,
especially against the spread on the road. They have not
been great this postseason. That's been the big thing is
home versus away. Steal game three, you're up to one.
Everyone's doing the same thing from the Denver series, which
(16:28):
is like, oh my god, is this gonna happen? Are
they prepared? They're gonna come back and kill you in
game four. They're going to kill you in game five.
That gives you Game six at home to four to seven.
And you've got more guys than Denver, so you're not
going to be this wreck of a mass unit with
Aaron Gordon on one hamstring and MPG with one shoulder.
You've been the hottest shooting team in the playoffs. Pacers
have the best effective field goal percentage of any team
(16:50):
in the postseason. That makes you live. I am literally saying,
you gotta get to a Game seven just to have
a chance here any other outcome, and I think it's
thunder definitively. They got a steal Game one, all right.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
So go ahead, some what are you gonna say something?
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Well, I was gonna hit him with the trend. They
haven't trend. I mean we have to talk about it.
So obviously NBA Finals Game one underdogs horrible, horrible bet chat,
which was just shocking to me because it always feels
like that's the game, like we're talking about here, you
need to steal, right if you're the underdog over the
last twenty years Game one underdogs two and eighteen straight up,
three and seventeen against the spread. And you know, when
(17:24):
you really break it down about bigger dogs, Chad, it
gets even worse. So if it's five points or more,
they're zero to twelve straight up, one and eleven against
the spread since two thousand and four. So the last
time it happened, the Pistons were at eight point dog
and they went outright. So they were saying that when
the dogs this big and game one, you can just
(17:45):
take the money line if you're really that ambitious kind
of hear what Matt's talking about. It's like, don't mess
with the spread, like they don't have a chance apparently
in this game one. So just reading those trends makes
me a little scared where it's it's already stacked against them.
That that's the reason the books they have this exact
same data. Don't be shocked that this opened at plus
seven and a half plus eight and got bet up
(18:07):
to plus nine because the pros everyone obviously took a
position very quickly because of this exact trend. So that's
all I just want to throw in their Chad.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, and Matt, what's your take on that.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
Yeah, here's so, here's another one. Here's another one.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
The pro so, if we look at the history, only
two teams beyond a three seed have ever won the
NBA title. They're trying to become the third team. It's
ninety five Rockets, nineteen sixty nine Celtics.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
So you're they're going up against history here, teams when
you've got a more than three seed differential in game one,
are they're three?
Speaker 4 (18:41):
And oh?
Speaker 3 (18:41):
These one seeds, the one seeds have it like Okase
checks every box. They won forty games before losing twenty
ninety five percent of all winners over the last twenty
years have done that.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
All of these markers.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Are in favor of OKAC for the series wins. So
this really would have to be an outlier year. Now,
this is an outlier year in general because look at
all the all the big heavy teams that have gone down,
and we've seen a lot of trends busted in these playoffs.
Teams coming off of Game sevens were such a rock
solid play to fade and they did great in the
second round that killed us on buckets.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
So there's been trend differentials this year.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
It's a different era at the same time, like if
you look at those performances of teams in game one,
you look at teams in game one also that are
elite defenses. If they allow fewer than one hundred and
ten points in that first game of the finals, they're
twenty nine to ten in those spots. It's tough for
(19:33):
to find the kind of reasoning here, which is a
big reason why on series plays, even though I get
I don't like the market, I feel like I'm just
gonna have to bet OKC on series spread lines based
off of the basketball handicap, the script differential and all
these things. There's basketball stuff I can find that makes
me like Indy, like I can find, especially on the
(19:53):
defensive side for Indy, there's a lot of things I
actually can find that I like there.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
It's just like, does that get them within rain? Yeah?
Does that get them the win? Probably not?
Speaker 1 (20:03):
What do you like defensively or on the court. In
your breakdown about the Pacers.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
So in the regular season matchups, right, they got waxed
by Okasee lost by twenty both times, no surprise. Okasee
has won sixty eight games this season by double digits,
which is insane. But what they did was they had
Andrew Nemhar guard Shakeyos Alexander on pick and roll and
they didn't deviate from that. Aaron NEI Smith, you remember
(20:32):
how good he was on Jalen Brunson to the first
half of the series. Six total possessions guarding shake Ghost Alexander.
Now that wasn't them hiding it for the finals. Nie
Smith was out for one and they just you play
your base coverage in the regular season. But putting Nie
Smith on Shay that's a move I really like because
what you want to be able to do is you
want to put him in a crowd that the Wolves
(20:52):
did in Game three and then make him make tough
shots in a really tight crowd or shoot pull up threes.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
The Pacers weak side.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
Defense is actually a little bit sharper than Minnesota's with
the personnel that they were playing, and Minnesota is a
lot or Indiana is a lot more comfortable playing small
than Minnesota is. Minnesota got so far away from game script.
Chris Finch, I think is an excellent coach. He got
worked in that series, and I think he got in
his own head a little bit. Indiana is a lot
more comfortable with throwing out different coverages, particularly zone. If
(21:23):
you remember, zone was one of the things that the
Nuggets threw in that really screwed with Okac's offense throughout
the middle part of that series. You're gonna see a
lot of that in this series as well. And if
this becomes not about turnovers and not about athleticism, but
it becomes about shooting, that's where Okac starts to waiver
a little bit. Their road splits are horrific for their
(21:46):
role players, lou Dort, Caruso, Case and Wallace, all these guys,
even Jaylen Williams, struggle a lot hitting open threes on
the road. And Indy is, like I said, they're shooting
the lights out. They've been shooting the lights out since
the start of the playoffs. So this turns into if
they don't turn the ball over, and Tyrese Haliburton is
one of the lowest turnover point guards.
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Indy is the second best.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Team at preventing turnovers from the regular season, and they've
been great in the postseason. You don't give Okac easy
chances off turnovers. The offensive rebound battle actually leans towards
Indiana in this matchup versus okc, if they can not
turn the ball over, make this into a shooting contest.
I like that stuff for Indiana, but it's like, Okay,
(22:30):
what does that get you? The problem is I can
make a basketball cap to shorten the margin. I can't
get the margin to zero or plus one for Indiana
in these matchups because the gap between them and team
strength is two wide.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal
last week about how long the ball is in Tyrese
Haliburton's hands on a possession, and that on average, it
was in his hands for about three and a half
seconds per possession. By comparison, Jalen Brunson was the highest
(23:05):
percentage or highest amount of seconds, at close to seven
seconds per possession. I just thought that was an amazing
stack because it speaks to the pace of the Pacers
offense and how quickly they are looking to get the
ball up court. Like you can see it, like every
single possession ies down the court, eyes down the court,
(23:26):
linked to the court, passes over the top of the defense,
coming out of baskets. I mean, why was that so
effective for the Knicks against the Knicks and why will
it be so ineffective against the thunder. What will they
do differently?
Speaker 3 (23:43):
It was a problem for every team that they've faced.
And this is actually something that I've talked to coaches
about in the league. So there's a difference between tempo
and pace. And the idea of the Pacers is like, well,
they're just running, run and run and running, trying to
get fast break points. They'll do those outlet passes for
the quick dunks like you saw with Seakham. They'll take
that when it's there. But they actually have the second
most shots this season playoffs, in regular season combined with
(24:08):
four to seven seconds left on the clock. That's considered
late by NBA terms, And so you try and figure out, like,
what does that mean. It's if you watch they play
with tempo more than they play with pace. This is
an old Spurs thing that Tony Parker used to do.
You make a basket crowd celebrating boom, he's up the
court and he's initiating first action at twenty seconds, eighteen seconds,
(24:30):
first screen, first pass is already executing, so they're moving well.
The other team is still doing three point celebrations and
they'll they will continue to get into those and attack them.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
And when Indy has their worst games.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
They get away from that Game five versus the Knicks,
you could see it like they were just slowed down.
They were executing offense at twelve seconds fourteen seconds. When
they are playing up tempo. It gets them a little
bit further off. Now, what the Knicks did in game
five two is they picked up Haliburton across half court.
They picked him up at fifty feet from the basket,
so they started picking him up what way past half.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
Court to put pressure on him.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
In game six, he solved that with some screens in
the back court, played a little bit faster in terms
of getting ahead of it and breaking that press and
then also having somebody else. One of the great things
about Haliburton is he'll defer. One of the things I
love about him is he'll if you switch, if you
put your big on him, if they really they're playing
one big and it's Chet Holmgren, he'll take Chet and
(25:25):
he'll he'll get the switch, and then he'll pass off
and he'll hang. Because Holmgren has to respect his three
point shot, which means there's no longer a shot blocker underneath.
And the question is gonna be cannemhard Cannie Smith, can McConnell,
Can Siakam attack the basket against that pressure and break it.
That's a big question, but those are gonna be the
(25:47):
kind of challenges that you're gonna see in this series.
And if Haliburton is able to navigate this and is
able to break that defense. A big question for me
is going to be if the thunder coming into the
series and they're like, you're not gonna be able to pass. Man,
We're gonna we're gonna we're staying home on everybody. We're
switching everything. We're gonna give you these switches, but we're
also gonna shut down all your your other options. We're
(26:07):
not shading off. We're okay with all our guys can defend.
You're gonna have to score.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Can Holly do that? Because that's not in his mindset.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
He's got that Steve Nash about him where he always
wants to make the right play.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
If he has like a.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Monster scoring performance several times, that breaks that defense, forces
more help and out Okase's in rotation.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
And they hate it.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
But he's gonna have to beat play, I think with
a little bit more deliberation, and he's gonna have to
play with a little bit more of a I have
to score here to bend this defense, because if you
just take what the defense gives you, Okac gives you
things that seem like, oh this is a good It
was not a good shot, it was blocked, it was
a turnover, et cetera. You have to force them out
of their comfort zone if you're gonna break that defense.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
And you did mention earlier series how you're betnett if
people don't know the series price. Obviously we're talking with Thunder,
huge favorite minus seven hundred, Pacers plus five hundred. Can
you talk a little bout how you're attacking the series price?
And obviously you're not gonna betting minus seven hundred. Are
you just going to betting by the games or which
way you breaking down that number? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two
and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.
That's a really good number to me based off of
when I get to Okay, if we price in those
two blowouts I'm expecting for OKAC at home, the odds
are that we're gonna be able to get that in
two in five, or at least have a high enough
margin here, it's I don't there's no real value on
(27:30):
Thunder Game one Thunder series right, that's minus three hundred.
That's a tough price I think to get into. With
the Thunder being on the stage for the first time,
both these teams are inexperienced at this point. I do
think there's a coaching edge for Rick Carlisle, But to me,
like Thunder minus two and a half, they either sweep
or finish it in five. It could be I think
we could have some really great games in it. You know,
(27:50):
we could have an awesome Game one, an awesome Game three,
maybe a good game four, and still wind up with
Thunder in winning in five or four.
Speaker 4 (27:58):
Here.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
I've loved this Pacers team. They've been one of the
most fun teams to watch. But this, this Thunder team
is just in another weight class, and if I'm going
to bet it appropriately, I think the value has to
be found when you're taking heavy outcomes. That lean in
Okase's favor.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Is the what about Thunder and five. If you're going
to bet minus two and a half, why not Thunder
in five as well?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Because I think that there's an opportunity there for If
the problem is okac has the same kind of comeback
ability that the Pacers do.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
Right, We've seen them come back heavy.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
But if you remember the Thunder, we're down thirty to
Memphis came back and won that game. Now, the Pacers
are a lot better than Memphis, for sure, But I
do think that there's a possibility that this is actually
the Pacers come out with a great first half in
Game three.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Thunder a second half team.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
They've been that all year where it's like you look
up and all of a sudden, your double digit lead
is gone.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
In the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
They pish it, but they push in the middle of
the fourth and then they finish you out. So I
want that opportunity for Thunder and four. I don't want
to close off my opportunity in case the Thunder do
take Game.
Speaker 4 (28:59):
Three as well.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
You know what's go ahead, Sammon?
Speaker 2 (29:03):
No, I mean, I'm just gonna once again add to
it the upsets, Like we're just talking about really big
numbers here, you know, last big serious price you get
like this with an upset not that long ago, which
shocked me because it was like, oh, I wasn't even
thinking about that Heat Celtics series. So twenty twenty three
Heat over the Celtics, two thousand and nine Magic over
(29:24):
the Cavs, and two thousand and four Piston over that
Lakers team. So what we're talking about here obviously is
incredibly rare. That's why this number once again has been
met up by the professionals, because guys, if they're putting
down five to six figures, they don't mind eating minus
seven hundred, minus six fifty minus eight hundred some books
have already moved to. So I just want people to
(29:46):
be aware of those prices, and like, if you we
all believe, right, there's like part of us all wants
to believe in this Pacers team because it is basketball, right,
It's all about balls having to go in the hoop.
Some teams, that doesn't happen for me. And when we
saw it with that Boston series, it was a totally
different series because Boston just couldn't hit their threes. And
that's the way the NBA has been now. So you know,
as someone that's like very tempted to bet the Pacers,
(30:08):
Evan has just been killing me with all these trends.
So I just want people to be aware of the trends.
They don't really favorite betting these type of dogs, and
I think Matt agrees with that.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
Yeah, and I got two more trends here that we
kind of go along with that. The other thing that's
correlated with these dog favorite spots is the under the
under in home Favorite game ones fourteen and eight last
twenty two. If we go to teams that have allowed
fewer than one hundred and ten points per game, I
(30:37):
wish we had a defensive rating, but we don't. But
teams that are in that kind of spot in game
one of the Finals twenty five and fourteen to the under.
In these spots, there's been like a lot of opportunities here,
I think for the under opportunities to be in play
for this game one. This total ticked up after the open.
We talked about it on Buckets Live that there was
immediate action kind of pushing the over.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
I'm going to be back in.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
I think on the under here, the problem is always
OKAC causing turnovers and those running up easy transition points.
But again, this is a low turnover team. So even
if they turn it over more than they can and
survive winning the game or covering, there's still an opportunity
here for them to not give Okasey's offense.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
Enough life for the under, I'm.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Gonna be looking I think, by the way, on the
other side of this, let's script it. If you like thunder,
it's thunder, it's thunderspread and under. If you like Pacers,
it's Pacers, money line and over. That's got to be
the way that you play this. From that perspective, Indiana
can win some of these games with unders, but it's
gonna be real tough against this particular.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Team Matt.
Speaker 1 (31:42):
You Simon mentioned Boston. We haven't brought up the Lakers.
If you had to predict who's going to win a
title first in the next five years, Lakers or Mavericks.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
I mean, it's one hundred percent the Lakers. We talked
about this late in the season on Buckets. We talked
about what the price would have to be for you
to bet the Lakers to win the twenty twenty sixth title.
And you know, I was given out numbers and Brandon
Anderson and Sean Little were killing me. There's like no way, man, No.
(32:25):
I was like, all right, what's the number that you want?
And they're like, it's got to be twenty to one. Yeah,
that's twenty to one.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
In the market.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
They're gonna have an entire offseason to rebuild around Luca.
There's already I've been talking to people around the league.
Nick Claxton's a name to look out for. There's a
lot of thought that they're gonna make a move for
Nick Claxton as a rim runner big. They're gonna add wings,
They're gonna add other opportunities.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
They still have assets to trade.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Austin Reeves is probably gonna get moved, and that's a
big trade piece for them. The Lakers are in a
great spot. Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving. I don't know
what this looks like after them. Love Cooper flag, but
this is a terrible situation that he's going in. But
if you gave me the option of those or the
San Antonio Spurs, Jed, I would take the San Antonio Spurs.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Really.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Victor Man, Victor Weman Yama, even coming off the blood
clot Man, his game is so far behind his impact
where he's not even that good at so many simple
basic things. He still gets knocked out of the way
on drives, he still gets out of position, He's still
you know, confused. He doesn't have go to moves his
(33:28):
footwork isn't perfect, and then you look at the overall
numbers and it's like they are monsters with him on
the court. He's just gonna get better. They added the
Air and Fox. They've got the number two pick, and
there's a lot of conversations about what they're gonna do
as far as whether they keep that pick and take
Dylan Harper or trade it for a major upgrade. Everyone's
waiting to hear about Giannis, but it might be for
(33:49):
something else as well. They've got cap space, flexibility, they've
got draft picks. That Spurs team is set up. We
are probably gonna get another Lakers Spurs rivalry like we
did in the early two thousands. I think we're going
to see that again here with Luca versus Victor Webbin
Yama over and over again.
Speaker 4 (34:06):
In the West.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
Let me speak in you mentioned the draft. I need
to sneak in pick three. It's the only pick on
the board with any value my sixers. Is it as Bailey?
Who the hell are they taking? Is there a long
shot outside guy you put money on? Or am I
just betting plus one hundred you know, minus one ten
on this? Ace Bailey kid? A put pick.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Three, So I think that it's probably if you were
If you had to better, I would wait because I
don't think we have enough intel right now.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
But you had to, I would bet Bailey.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
But if I actually had to, I would bet if
I could, if it was in the market, I would
bet Bailey, not Sixers at three. There's a couple of
teams that are absolutely in on Bailey and are looking
to move up, and the Sixers are interested in those conversations.
So there's an opportunity there if the Sixers keep the pick.
Speaker 4 (34:48):
I think VJ. Edgecomb probably goes there. That's how I
have to go there talking.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
To me Letcher, are we really about to trade Maxing
that third pick for you? Honest? Is that real? Is
that just? Is that just off season talk?
Speaker 4 (34:58):
That's off season talk. Everyone's waiting. There was a meeting,
so there was two meetings.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
There was a meeting with.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
Giannis a couple of weeks ago, and no word came
out of that. That was with the front office. There
was an ownership meeting with the front office last week
and there's been like weird noise coming out of that one.
But so far everybody in Milwaukee is making noise about
Giannis is staying we're going to do a gap year.
It's going to be okay. That can change it in
any second if he asks out it's bidding season. But
(35:25):
I also think that they are less likely. I do
not think that, I will say this, I do not
think the Sixers are trading Tyres Maxie. I do not
find any situation where they trade Tyres Maxie. They are
more likely to trade every other asset.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I would say that they might.
Speaker 3 (35:38):
Even be more likely to trade Joelle than they are
to trade Tyrese. So I would not worry about trading
Tyres in the third I would not be surprised if
they did a deal for Jannis.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
That's a very Daryl Morey thing to do.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
But they'll have a lot of competition, and we're a
long way from there because we got to figure out
what Yannis wants first, and as of right now, there's
still no news and nobody knows.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
The Bay spot is so interesting because people are so
divided on Ace Bailey. Are you getting a guy who's
at a ceiling? Are you getting a guy who can
live up to the potential? Like if I'm the Sixers,
getting that three spot was a little bit of a
(36:20):
curse because with the first two spots with Flag and Harper,
you kind of know what you're getting. You're getting NBA
ready guys. You know they can come and make an impact,
and you know they've got superstar potential. Ace Bailey could
just as easily be James Wiseman as he is the
next great NBA All Star. Matt you agree? Is that
(36:42):
a real conversation.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, The problem is just like he's he won, he's
There's two different thoughts of people I've talked to.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
One is, I don't like his approach. He's a gunner.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
He's gonna shoot too much. He needs years to refine this.
He is not ready to play smart, competitive, high level
back basketball because of his mindset, and like, I don't
want to commit a lot of money to that kind
of guy. That's just like scoring doesn't make teammates better.
The other thought is like, look, he could be a
really great player. He just needs seasoning, he just needs
he's a prospect, but it's going to take several years.
(37:14):
Like he's just really raw, and so that combo I
think has got enough people skinned. But I think his
interesting is Again, I've heard that there's a couple of
teams that are in spots five through ten that are
very much interested in Bailey and are like, no, that's
the kind of talent that we need.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
But if the team's up at the top the other one.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
I thought Dylan Harper was like Locke, and he probably
is going to I'm not saying he's not. I will
say there's a lot of weirdness going on around, like
no one really knows what san Antonio is gonna do,
and there's a lot of scouts that are like, I'm
not putting Harper one hundred percent at two.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
I'm just not.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
So that'll be three thousand just for the people at
home to be number two.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
Yeah, Like I again, most likely that's what's gonna happen.
He is the consensus number two pick in this draft.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
I love Harper's game.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
I would take him too, But I do think that
there's a lot of questions about fit culture, a lot
of stuff.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
With Harper, and the Spurs are a.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Tough fit for a lot of guys, which is why
they go outside the box a lot of the time.
And they've got a logjam there with Fox and Castle,
who they do really like. He can out of a
bad draft. Class one Rookie of the Year and a
bad year, but they do like him, they're invested in him.
So I'm very curious that there could be some chaos
here at the top and that would be that would
make for a lot of wild outcomes.
Speaker 4 (38:29):
I think in the draft markets.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
How does Edgecombe fit with the Sixers. Their backcourt, like
from a starting perspective, was kind of loaded, and they've
got similar players, like undersized athletic players.
Speaker 3 (38:43):
Yeah, so the idea is just one He's like, if
he's the best talent, that's what you take.
Speaker 4 (38:46):
You always take a best talent with top three.
Speaker 3 (38:48):
If you like his talent better than Bailey, then you
just you take the best talent. The other kind of
mindset here is, look, if they move off Paul George,
then they're gonna need wing help, and the idea is
add as many wing guys, especially guys that can come
in and do multiple things, and they like the versatility
that Edgecomb is going to bring to the table. So
that combo of things is kind of I think why
(39:08):
Edgecomb is up there. Trey Johnson is the other name,
but there's a lot of skepticism that that any team
can really justify going for for Trey Johnson. What I
will say though, is, as always, the mock drafts are
not as important, the big boards are not as important.
Speaker 4 (39:23):
Picked by pick. They're good in.
Speaker 3 (39:25):
The aggregate, but if the sixers board is different, the
sixers board is different. And so much of this comes
down to It's why I am always most keen to
hear about how do the interviews of the combine go?
Because not the not the measurements, not the on court stuff,
how the interviews go because building personal relationships, building trust
and feeling like this is a kid that we can
(39:46):
invest with the future and and this much emphasis on
is really important. So that part, to me is just
as important as all as all the other stuff as
as far as the basketball skill set goes.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Well, Matt Moore, we trust you, and we trust everything
you've said about the NBA Finals, about the draft, about
who might win a title first between the Lakers, Spurs,
and Mavericks. Excellent work, brother. Everyone should listen to Buckets.
It's been an amazing playoff run. We got more weeks
(40:21):
ahead of us. Hopefully we'll get like I'd like six
at least, just because I like both these teams and
I'm going to miss the NBA when it's gone. But
Matt Moore, great work, great thanks for coming on, Thanks
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites Thursday. Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify,
(40:41):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
use five stars, say whatever you want to feedback as
a gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Shad Molman
of the Action Network. We are part of the Volume
podcast Network today. I am joined as always buy my cost,
my companion, Mike and Padre, my bff Professional Better, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Ed O, Simon Schad. How are we doing, brother dude?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
We had a little date night last week. You and
I we shared a cheese steak and Philly we ate
it on the back of your trunk, just sitting on
the bumper. Cars trying to go down one way streets,
horns blaring, bicycle cops coming around, not even taking notice
of the way you're illegally parked. We went to the
(00:57):
Phillies game. It was a perfect night in Philly, and
I will contend that one of the best sort of
leisurely sports experiences is going to Citizens Bank Ballpark to
watch the Phillies on a beautiful night with my bff Sigmon.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, it was a good night. Picked you up in
the M eight love showing off the car and BMW.
I know that you guys just sponsored JJ Reddick's podcast.
He's gone never coming back. If you want to come
sponsor me and chat, I literally drive an m E
come sponsor our show BMW. Please. Yeah, I picked up
Chat and I thought to myself, can Chat eat a
whole cheese steak? And I thought himself, I eat a
whole cheese steak before this baseball game. That's risky move
(01:44):
because we're all to be sitting in a ballpark for
four hours. So I took the I took the Dela Rossie,
which is you know, if you're a local, you know
the spot. It's known for its pizza and there's cheese steaks.
And yeah, I gave you the authentic experience eating on
the back of the car. I feel like is a
very city thing to do. And like Chad said, not
a single person paid us any type of mind. That's how,
(02:06):
you know, just normal it is in Philadelphia. And yeah,
the baseball game wise, you know, great seats. Chad and
I have done enough gambling and been in enough baseball games.
We knew that game was over within I think it
was a four to nothing at one point in the
land and we both threw knew each other just basically
said this game is over and our under bet is dead.
Of course it.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Was no, no, no, no, no, no, that's not how it went.
Number one, I will tell you I had half a
cheese steak. I don't think I've had as many calories
combined since we saw each other as I had in
that one half of a cheese steak. Number two. It
was Zach Wheeler Chris Sale. The game was rolling, nothing, nothing,
(02:51):
Everything's going great. And you looked at me at one
point and you said, how about that under And I said, well,
I said, what the fuck is your problem? Have you
never gambled before? That's like the most mush thing you
could say. Literally, the top half of the next inning,
(03:14):
the Braves score two runs. They got men on first
and third, they hit a double. No, they've scored two runs.
I look at you, I don't even say anything, and
you go, we're fine. As long as we avoid the meltdown,
we're fine. Next batter double, two more runs scored. It's
(03:36):
four nothing. Then then the Phillies strand the bases loaded,
so then it's still for nothing. And then it's like
a pitching change. In the sixth we're like, let's get
out of here. We get to the car, and because
your ma drives at the speed of light, we were
at my hotel and by the time I passed the
(03:57):
bar which was fifteen minutes later, Phillies were down. Ain't
nothing and they.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Have We dig get a lovely sunset though chat, which
made it all worth it.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
We got a lovely sunset. I texted it to my family.
Not a single person responded. Listen, we got a big,
big show today because the NBA Finals tip off. You
know how much I love the NBA. I know you
love the NBA. Uh. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been
amazing in these playoffs. Just defensive monsters, shake Gilgess, Alexander
(04:28):
has been obviously dominant offensively. Jalen Williams has been amazing
to me. The Pacers, sure, they're a surprise, but in
the second round. I remember sitting watching the games and
I said to my kid, I feel like the only
team in the Eastern Conference running any offensive plays right
now are the Innana Pacers. And if there is justice
(04:49):
in this world, we're going to get the two most sound, competent,
high IQ teams playing in the finals, the Pacers in
the Thunder. That's what we're getting. Thank god. NBA Analyst
Action Network OG one of the most respected media voices
(05:10):
in the NBA, one of the original original analytics gurus,
in the NBA covering everything NBA playoffs on buckets are Man,
Matt Moore, my brother, dude. I know, like the world
(05:30):
isn't thrilled. It's okay. See in Indie, I couldn't be happier.
I think it's the It's gonna be the best basketball
played that we could have possibly gotten.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, it's gonna be like if if if two teams
got together and every hoop head loved it and nobody heard.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
It, what does it make a sound? That's that's the
question here.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
And you know what, Like I muted ratings on social
media because I'm just like, I don't care, man, this
is gonna be an awesome series.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
You got Indiana Plan.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
They play so up tempo, it's not even like it's
not just fast break stuff, but they play they are
in your face, at your throat every single possession. I've
likened them to a punk rock team where they're just
like every single song they are going right for the kill.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
That's how they play.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
And then you got Oklahoma City, who have seriously bent
my brain as far as usually with turnovers. I'm like, well,
you know you can always like play sound and avoid Nope,
not versus OKC, they're just taking the ball from you
go in the other direction. It's gonna be, I think,
a really fun series of games. It's gonna be a
(06:34):
lot of athleticism, a lot of young guys. This is
the thunder of the second youngest team to make the
finals since the seventy seven Blazers. They be the second
youngest team to win the title since the seventy seven Blazers.
Pacers are on the young side. It's a new era
in the NBA. Can't wait to watch the series.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Yeah, it's interesting because they are both so good defensively,
also incredibly high teams. I keep I look at the
Pacers and I feel like their floor is so high.
I don't you know. Obviously they're stealing is higher than
anyone thought because they're they've made it to the finals,
(07:14):
but the floor of their baseline of competency is just
so high. And they're so complimentary Nemharv who got so
much credit in Game six guarding. Brunson has been like
that for two years as sort of a defensive stopper,
a guy who can dribble to the middle of the
lane to get his shot. Normally it's going in a
(07:35):
great mid range, Like, I love love this team, and
defensively the way they play, as you point out, it's
so different. The Pacers are so freaking physical. They might
not get as many turnovers, although the Knicks, you know,
we're incompetent. The thunder, it feels like sometimes you can't
(07:55):
get past center court because when they've got Caruso in
there and Williams in there, their arms are so long,
they're in every passing lane. They're brilliant defensively and so
different defensively.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yeah, okay, see, I haven't seen a defense like this
in a long time. Like you got to go back
to four pistons to get a team this good defensively.
Fifteen Warriors is up there, but I think this team's
is legitimately better defensively. Their ability, it's not just that
they steal passes, they're not gambling. It's that they're able
to maintain gap discipline while also forcing those turnovers.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
They're disrupting your handle.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Nikola Jokic has never been as flummix and as frustrated
as I saw him in that series, where there was
just possessions where he would turn and they're just taking
the ball away from him and the home court advantage,
I think is a huge part of that as well,
because in that building it's so loud, those fans are
so good.
Speaker 4 (08:49):
You can't hear the call outs of.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Hey guys coming behind you, like Wolflee get you can't
hear those callouts behind you, and then all of a sudden,
you turn and the ball is just being ripped away
from you and going the other direction. They have so
many good defenders, like Shae is second in the league
in steals. He is a perfectly good defender, and he's
like the seventh best defender on this squad. You got
home grind, you got Hartenstein defending down low. That allows
(09:13):
the guards to play more physical to the perimeter and
really attack the handle and force them the other direction.
You've got you know you mentioned Caruso. The secret guy
is Jalen Williams Jadab.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
When I did the.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
MVP work on Shay and I was watching all of
Shay's defensive possessions when he was on the court, the guy.
Speaker 4 (09:31):
That stood out was Jadub.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
He's everywhere, man like jumping up and stealing passes out
of the air from the guy right there, weak side
blocks underneath, challenging and being physical with guys like this
is he is such a game changer for them defensively
as good as Ludor is, and they all agree he's
the best defender as good as Caruso is. And everyone
(09:55):
agrees Caruso is the second best Caruso by the way,
says Case and Wallace is third. Jadov's versatility is what
like separates them. He is like he is that linebacker
that can play in coverage. He can blitz, he can drop,
he can play man like. He is unbelievable in how
many things that he can do and that you add
(10:16):
all that up together, and when they are in sync,
it is a nightmare for teams to deal with.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
So when you look at these teams, Uh, what's interesting
is you could argue this is the Paul George Finals
because both of these teams were built off of trades
when Paul George was the marquee player for each team.
Before we get into the game one breakdown, I know
(10:44):
Simon wants to like dig in on you know who's
going to cover in Game one, but just give a
little context because there is a great sort of sub
story here around how these teams were built with relations
to Paul George.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
One of the things I think is great is that
this wasn't you know.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
I have a lot of respect for pg did a
big feature on him a couple of years ago for
MVP for Action. He was kind of sit down with me,
but they didn't move on from PGS and like they
pulled the rug out from under him. This wasn't like
bringing Blake Griffin in and talking about him as a
legend and then shipping him out six months later. Paul
George was like, Hey, I want to go home, Like
I want to go back to la That's where I
want to be, and I'm teaming up with Kawhi and Sam.
(11:22):
Presty was like, we can make that happen, no problem,
and came to the Clippers with the terms of the
deal and they found it appropriate. Got shay Yos Alexander
and this great story from Presty where he talks about
how like he was still trying to deal with the
aftermath of moving Russ and like how dramatic it was
that offseason, Like that was really hard for him. Like
Russ was a big part of that organization internally. They
loved that guy. They still love that guy, and yet
(11:44):
he goes in and while he's doing all these calls
and trying to manage all that, Shay is already at
the facility already working out, Like he's already come in
and he's already getting a workout in, and he was
like he just remembered that as a really big moment.
And for Shay to have been the center piece of
that deal and for how that worked out, an absolutely
incredible story and it's a testament to how OKAC did
(12:05):
handle that transition. You know, they made the playoffs in
twenty twenty. This team didn't tank for half a decade.
They tanked for two years, missed the playoffs and the
third and then we're back in because they took the
time to really invest in player development and make sure
that they weren't just tanking to get star talent. They
were building what they had. They got lucky with some
of the some of the selections, but they were very
(12:27):
deliberate with how they built that team up. And for Indiana,
you know, Demonas Sabonis was considered a great player, like
he had taken into the playoffs, he was a really
big part of their team, and they risked it in
sending Sabonis for Tyres Halliburton because they recognized what Halliburton
could do. And then the trader I love is Siakam
One when's the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. The Kings were
(12:49):
so hot to trot for Siakam, Like every source I
talked to was like, Oh, yeah, he's gonna wind up
a King that they're not going to let him go.
There's no team that's going to come in over the top.
And the Pacers snuck in when there was a breakdown
in talks with the Kings and grab Sakam and that
foundationally transform their team. And last season when they made
up that run to the Eastern Conference Finals, they'd only
played with Siakam for two months. Hallie had been out
(13:12):
the entire first month that he was there, so they
had really no time to get together. And there was
these videos in the off season of Siakam brought in
guys to his his gym to do offseason workouts and
was in the young guys faces being like, you think
we've done something, We haven't done anything.
Speaker 4 (13:29):
I've been there and didn't go back.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
You cannot go in with that mentality, Like it got
me Brady to run through a wall for him.
Speaker 4 (13:36):
And you see the intensity of this team plays with.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
It's rough for PG to look like this, but I
got to say, like the moves have worked out absolutely
terrific with both teams and how they built these squads.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Yeah, like PG, the picks they got the Pacers got
when they traded Paul George. You see that all over
the court right today for that for both both of
these teams were literally built by trading Paul George. H Simon,
I appreciate your patience, but I just wanted to make
(14:07):
it clear this is the Paul George Finals.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah, and the okay see thing has been crazy of
just how dams they've been. But if you watch the
playoffs like most fans have, Denver was the real test,
right they they weren't a shoeing to beat that team
like Denver easily could have won that series. And the reason,
you know, people I listened to that Saty loss is
because the rotation, right, okay see, was deeper they had
the guys, is there a single thing you look at
(14:30):
this Pacers team they can attack this okay thing, okay
see team that gives them an advantage Like what are
you trying to grasp at with this Pacers team? Because
everyone I talk to you, that's no's basketball. It's just
like you kind of need a miracle like the one
you had with the Knicks against the Boston team, Like,
is that the same kind of scenario here?
Speaker 3 (14:47):
Yeah, it's not great, not great, Simon. It's not a
great look for them in their situation. The model for me,
like there's other ways that they could do this if
they still game two, but for me, it comes down
to Game one. Is that if you like Pacers, I
think you should be on Pacers Game one, Pacers series, right,
and you're gonna get.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
A big number on that.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
They gotta steal game one because they gotta follow the
script of Denver. This is where I have a hard
time trying to get the value on the number, because
I think the market is ahead of where I've got,
Like it is definitively ahead of where I've got this
this power rated. That was a big reason I was
all in on Indiana in the last round is I
was I'm higher on Indiana on power rating and was
lower on New York And the market is just like
way ahead here on OKC, Like I make this minus
(15:25):
five to fourteen, it's minus seven hundred in the market
Oh so you want Indiana didn't say that. That's not
something that makes me feel good. If they can steal
game one, you have to factor in. In any thunder series,
you're gonna get blown out twice. In OKAC, it's just
like you gotta bake that in. Like I literally had
to run a deviation on model just to be like,
I need you to give me two blowouts and OKC,
(15:47):
and just like, what does that look like from a
number perspective, whether it's game two, game seven, game five,
Game seven, game five, game two, whatever, you're gonna lose
two by twenty or more. In OKC, they just do
that to you. But if they could steal game one,
all right, now you're in the same Denver script. They
come back and they wax you in game two, no problem.
You come home up to up split one one. That
(16:08):
game three spot at the field House, no finals since
two thousand building is gonna be raucous. OKC does underperform,
especially against the spread on the road. They have not
been great this postseason. That's been the big thing is
home versus away. Steal game three, you're up to one.
Everyone's doing the same thing from the Denver series, which
(16:28):
is like, oh my god, is this gonna happen? Are
they prepared? They're gonna come back and kill you in
game four. They're going to kill you in game five.
That gives you Game six at home to four to seven.
And you've got more guys than Denver, so you're not
going to be this wreck of a mass unit with
Aaron Gordon on one hamstring and MPG with one shoulder.
You've been the hottest shooting team in the playoffs. Pacers
have the best effective field goal percentage of any team
(16:50):
in the postseason. That makes you live. I am literally saying,
you gotta get to a Game seven just to have
a chance here any other outcome, and I think it's
thunder definitively. They got a steal Game one, all right.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
So go ahead, some what are you gonna say something?
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Well, I was gonna hit him with the trend. They
haven't trend. I mean we have to talk about it.
So obviously NBA Finals Game one underdogs horrible, horrible bet chat,
which was just shocking to me because it always feels
like that's the game, like we're talking about here, you
need to steal, right if you're the underdog over the
last twenty years Game one underdogs two and eighteen straight up,
three and seventeen against the spread. And you know, when
(17:24):
you really break it down about bigger dogs, Chad, it
gets even worse. So if it's five points or more,
they're zero to twelve straight up, one and eleven against
the spread since two thousand and four. So the last
time it happened, the Pistons were at eight point dog
and they went outright. So they were saying that when
the dogs this big and game one, you can just
(17:45):
take the money line if you're really that ambitious kind
of hear what Matt's talking about. It's like, don't mess
with the spread, like they don't have a chance apparently
in this game one. So just reading those trends makes
me a little scared where it's it's already stacked against them.
That that's the reason the books they have this exact
same data. Don't be shocked that this opened at plus
seven and a half plus eight and got bet up
(18:07):
to plus nine because the pros everyone obviously took a
position very quickly because of this exact trend. So that's
all I just want to throw in their Chad.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, and Matt, what's your take on that.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
Yeah, here's so, here's another one. Here's another one.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
The pro so, if we look at the history, only
two teams beyond a three seed have ever won the
NBA title. They're trying to become the third team. It's
ninety five Rockets, nineteen sixty nine Celtics.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
So you're they're going up against history here, teams when
you've got a more than three seed differential in game one,
are they're three?
Speaker 4 (18:41):
And oh?
Speaker 3 (18:41):
These one seeds, the one seeds have it like Okase
checks every box. They won forty games before losing twenty
ninety five percent of all winners over the last twenty
years have done that.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
All of these markers.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Are in favor of OKAC for the series wins. So
this really would have to be an outlier year. Now,
this is an outlier year in general because look at
all the all the big heavy teams that have gone down,
and we've seen a lot of trends busted in these playoffs.
Teams coming off of Game sevens were such a rock
solid play to fade and they did great in the
second round that killed us on buckets.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
So there's been trend differentials this year.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
It's a different era at the same time, like if
you look at those performances of teams in game one,
you look at teams in game one also that are
elite defenses. If they allow fewer than one hundred and
ten points in that first game of the finals, they're
twenty nine to ten in those spots. It's tough for
(19:33):
to find the kind of reasoning here, which is a
big reason why on series plays, even though I get
I don't like the market, I feel like I'm just
gonna have to bet OKC on series spread lines based
off of the basketball handicap, the script differential and all
these things. There's basketball stuff I can find that makes
me like Indy, like I can find, especially on the
(19:53):
defensive side for Indy, there's a lot of things I
actually can find that I like there.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
It's just like, does that get them within rain? Yeah?
Does that get them the win? Probably not?
Speaker 1 (20:03):
What do you like defensively or on the court. In
your breakdown about the Pacers.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
So in the regular season matchups, right, they got waxed
by Okasee lost by twenty both times, no surprise. Okasee
has won sixty eight games this season by double digits,
which is insane. But what they did was they had
Andrew Nemhar guard Shakeyos Alexander on pick and roll and
they didn't deviate from that. Aaron NEI Smith, you remember
(20:32):
how good he was on Jalen Brunson to the first
half of the series. Six total possessions guarding shake Ghost Alexander.
Now that wasn't them hiding it for the finals. Nie
Smith was out for one and they just you play
your base coverage in the regular season. But putting Nie
Smith on Shay that's a move I really like because
what you want to be able to do is you
want to put him in a crowd that the Wolves
(20:52):
did in Game three and then make him make tough
shots in a really tight crowd or shoot pull up threes.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
The Pacers weak side.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
Defense is actually a little bit sharper than Minnesota's with
the personnel that they were playing, and Minnesota is a
lot or Indiana is a lot more comfortable playing small
than Minnesota is. Minnesota got so far away from game script.
Chris Finch, I think is an excellent coach. He got
worked in that series, and I think he got in
his own head a little bit. Indiana is a lot
more comfortable with throwing out different coverages, particularly zone. If
(21:23):
you remember, zone was one of the things that the
Nuggets threw in that really screwed with Okac's offense throughout
the middle part of that series. You're gonna see a
lot of that in this series as well. And if
this becomes not about turnovers and not about athleticism, but
it becomes about shooting, that's where Okac starts to waiver
a little bit. Their road splits are horrific for their
(21:46):
role players, lou Dort, Caruso, Case and Wallace, all these guys,
even Jaylen Williams, struggle a lot hitting open threes on
the road. And Indy is, like I said, they're shooting
the lights out. They've been shooting the lights out since
the start of the playoffs. So this turns into if
they don't turn the ball over, and Tyrese Haliburton is
one of the lowest turnover point guards.
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Indy is the second best.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Team at preventing turnovers from the regular season, and they've
been great in the postseason. You don't give Okac easy
chances off turnovers. The offensive rebound battle actually leans towards
Indiana in this matchup versus okc, if they can not
turn the ball over, make this into a shooting contest.
I like that stuff for Indiana, but it's like, Okay,
(22:30):
what does that get you? The problem is I can
make a basketball cap to shorten the margin. I can't
get the margin to zero or plus one for Indiana
in these matchups because the gap between them and team
strength is two wide.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal
last week about how long the ball is in Tyrese
Haliburton's hands on a possession, and that on average, it
was in his hands for about three and a half
seconds per possession. By comparison, Jalen Brunson was the highest
(23:05):
percentage or highest amount of seconds, at close to seven
seconds per possession. I just thought that was an amazing
stack because it speaks to the pace of the Pacers
offense and how quickly they are looking to get the
ball up court. Like you can see it, like every
single possession ies down the court, eyes down the court,
(23:26):
linked to the court, passes over the top of the defense,
coming out of baskets. I mean, why was that so
effective for the Knicks against the Knicks and why will
it be so ineffective against the thunder. What will they
do differently?
Speaker 3 (23:43):
It was a problem for every team that they've faced.
And this is actually something that I've talked to coaches
about in the league. So there's a difference between tempo
and pace. And the idea of the Pacers is like, well,
they're just running, run and run and running, trying to
get fast break points. They'll do those outlet passes for
the quick dunks like you saw with Seakham. They'll take
that when it's there. But they actually have the second
most shots this season playoffs, in regular season combined with
(24:08):
four to seven seconds left on the clock. That's considered
late by NBA terms, And so you try and figure out, like,
what does that mean. It's if you watch they play
with tempo more than they play with pace. This is
an old Spurs thing that Tony Parker used to do.
You make a basket crowd celebrating boom, he's up the
court and he's initiating first action at twenty seconds, eighteen seconds,
(24:30):
first screen, first pass is already executing, so they're moving well.
The other team is still doing three point celebrations and
they'll they will continue to get into those and attack them.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
And when Indy has their worst games.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
They get away from that Game five versus the Knicks,
you could see it like they were just slowed down.
They were executing offense at twelve seconds fourteen seconds. When
they are playing up tempo. It gets them a little
bit further off. Now, what the Knicks did in game
five two is they picked up Haliburton across half court.
They picked him up at fifty feet from the basket,
so they started picking him up what way past half.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
Court to put pressure on him.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
In game six, he solved that with some screens in
the back court, played a little bit faster in terms
of getting ahead of it and breaking that press and
then also having somebody else. One of the great things
about Haliburton is he'll defer. One of the things I
love about him is he'll if you switch, if you
put your big on him, if they really they're playing
one big and it's Chet Holmgren, he'll take Chet and
(25:25):
he'll he'll get the switch, and then he'll pass off
and he'll hang. Because Holmgren has to respect his three
point shot, which means there's no longer a shot blocker underneath.
And the question is gonna be cannemhard Cannie Smith, can McConnell,
Can Siakam attack the basket against that pressure and break it.
That's a big question, but those are gonna be the
(25:47):
kind of challenges that you're gonna see in this series.
And if Haliburton is able to navigate this and is
able to break that defense. A big question for me
is going to be if the thunder coming into the
series and they're like, you're not gonna be able to pass. Man,
We're gonna we're gonna we're staying home on everybody. We're
switching everything. We're gonna give you these switches, but we're
also gonna shut down all your your other options. We're
(26:07):
not shading off. We're okay with all our guys can defend.
You're gonna have to score.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Can Holly do that? Because that's not in his mindset.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
He's got that Steve Nash about him where he always
wants to make the right play.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
If he has like a.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Monster scoring performance several times, that breaks that defense, forces
more help and out Okase's in rotation.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
And they hate it.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
But he's gonna have to beat play, I think with
a little bit more deliberation, and he's gonna have to
play with a little bit more of a I have
to score here to bend this defense, because if you
just take what the defense gives you, Okac gives you
things that seem like, oh this is a good It
was not a good shot, it was blocked, it was
a turnover, et cetera. You have to force them out
of their comfort zone if you're gonna break that defense.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
And you did mention earlier series how you're betnett if
people don't know the series price. Obviously we're talking with Thunder,
huge favorite minus seven hundred, Pacers plus five hundred. Can
you talk a little bout how you're attacking the series price?
And obviously you're not gonna betting minus seven hundred. Are
you just going to betting by the games or which
way you breaking down that number? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two
and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.
That's a really good number to me based off of
when I get to Okay, if we price in those
two blowouts I'm expecting for OKAC at home, the odds
are that we're gonna be able to get that in
two in five, or at least have a high enough
margin here, it's I don't there's no real value on
(27:30):
Thunder Game one Thunder series right, that's minus three hundred.
That's a tough price I think to get into. With
the Thunder being on the stage for the first time,
both these teams are inexperienced at this point. I do
think there's a coaching edge for Rick Carlisle, But to me,
like Thunder minus two and a half, they either sweep
or finish it in five. It could be I think
we could have some really great games in it. You know,
(27:50):
we could have an awesome Game one, an awesome Game three,
maybe a good game four, and still wind up with
Thunder in winning in five or four.
Speaker 4 (27:58):
Here.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
I've loved this Pacers team. They've been one of the
most fun teams to watch. But this, this Thunder team
is just in another weight class, and if I'm going
to bet it appropriately, I think the value has to
be found when you're taking heavy outcomes. That lean in
Okase's favor.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Is the what about Thunder and five. If you're going
to bet minus two and a half, why not Thunder
in five as well?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Because I think that there's an opportunity there for If
the problem is okac has the same kind of comeback
ability that the Pacers do.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
Right, We've seen them come back heavy.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
But if you remember the Thunder, we're down thirty to
Memphis came back and won that game. Now, the Pacers
are a lot better than Memphis, for sure, But I
do think that there's a possibility that this is actually
the Pacers come out with a great first half in
Game three.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
Thunder a second half team.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
They've been that all year where it's like you look
up and all of a sudden, your double digit lead
is gone.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
In the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
They pish it, but they push in the middle of
the fourth and then they finish you out. So I
want that opportunity for Thunder and four. I don't want
to close off my opportunity in case the Thunder do
take Game.
Speaker 4 (28:59):
Three as well.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
You know what's go ahead, Sammon?
Speaker 2 (29:03):
No, I mean, I'm just gonna once again add to
it the upsets, Like we're just talking about really big
numbers here, you know, last big serious price you get
like this with an upset not that long ago, which
shocked me because it was like, oh, I wasn't even
thinking about that Heat Celtics series. So twenty twenty three
Heat over the Celtics, two thousand and nine Magic over
(29:24):
the Cavs, and two thousand and four Piston over that
Lakers team. So what we're talking about here obviously is
incredibly rare. That's why this number once again has been
met up by the professionals, because guys, if they're putting
down five to six figures, they don't mind eating minus
seven hundred, minus six fifty minus eight hundred some books
have already moved to. So I just want people to
(29:46):
be aware of those prices, and like, if you we
all believe, right, there's like part of us all wants
to believe in this Pacers team because it is basketball, right,
It's all about balls having to go in the hoop.
Some teams, that doesn't happen for me. And when we
saw it with that Boston series, it was a totally
different series because Boston just couldn't hit their threes. And
that's the way the NBA has been now. So you know,
as someone that's like very tempted to bet the Pacers,
(30:08):
Evan has just been killing me with all these trends.
So I just want people to be aware of the trends.
They don't really favorite betting these type of dogs, and
I think Matt agrees with that.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
Yeah, and I got two more trends here that we
kind of go along with that. The other thing that's
correlated with these dog favorite spots is the under the
under in home Favorite game ones fourteen and eight last
twenty two. If we go to teams that have allowed
fewer than one hundred and ten points per game, I
(30:37):
wish we had a defensive rating, but we don't. But
teams that are in that kind of spot in game
one of the Finals twenty five and fourteen to the under.
In these spots, there's been like a lot of opportunities here,
I think for the under opportunities to be in play
for this game one. This total ticked up after the open.
We talked about it on Buckets Live that there was
immediate action kind of pushing the over.
Speaker 4 (30:58):
I'm going to be back in.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
I think on the under here, the problem is always
OKAC causing turnovers and those running up easy transition points.
But again, this is a low turnover team. So even
if they turn it over more than they can and
survive winning the game or covering, there's still an opportunity
here for them to not give Okasey's offense.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
Enough life for the under, I'm.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Gonna be looking I think, by the way, on the
other side of this, let's script it. If you like thunder,
it's thunder, it's thunderspread and under. If you like Pacers,
it's Pacers, money line and over. That's got to be
the way that you play this. From that perspective, Indiana
can win some of these games with unders, but it's
gonna be real tough against this particular.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Team Matt.
Speaker 1 (31:42):
You Simon mentioned Boston. We haven't brought up the Lakers.
If you had to predict who's going to win a
title first in the next five years, Lakers or Mavericks.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
I mean, it's one hundred percent the Lakers. We talked
about this late in the season on Buckets. We talked
about what the price would have to be for you
to bet the Lakers to win the twenty twenty sixth title.
And you know, I was given out numbers and Brandon
Anderson and Sean Little were killing me. There's like no way, man, No.
(32:25):
I was like, all right, what's the number that you want?
And they're like, it's got to be twenty to one. Yeah,
that's twenty to one.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
In the market.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
They're gonna have an entire offseason to rebuild around Luca.
There's already I've been talking to people around the league.
Nick Claxton's a name to look out for. There's a
lot of thought that they're gonna make a move for
Nick Claxton as a rim runner big. They're gonna add wings,
They're gonna add other opportunities.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
They still have assets to trade.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Austin Reeves is probably gonna get moved, and that's a
big trade piece for them. The Lakers are in a
great spot. Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving. I don't know
what this looks like after them. Love Cooper flag, but
this is a terrible situation that he's going in. But
if you gave me the option of those or the
San Antonio Spurs, Jed, I would take the San Antonio Spurs.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Really.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Victor Man, Victor Weman Yama, even coming off the blood
clot Man, his game is so far behind his impact
where he's not even that good at so many simple
basic things. He still gets knocked out of the way
on drives, he still gets out of position, He's still
you know, confused. He doesn't have go to moves his
(33:28):
footwork isn't perfect, and then you look at the overall
numbers and it's like they are monsters with him on
the court. He's just gonna get better. They added the
Air and Fox. They've got the number two pick, and
there's a lot of conversations about what they're gonna do
as far as whether they keep that pick and take
Dylan Harper or trade it for a major upgrade. Everyone's
waiting to hear about Giannis, but it might be for
(33:49):
something else as well. They've got cap space, flexibility, they've
got draft picks. That Spurs team is set up. We
are probably gonna get another Lakers Spurs rivalry like we
did in the early two thousands. I think we're going
to see that again here with Luca versus Victor Webbin
Yama over and over again.
Speaker 4 (34:06):
In the West.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
Let me speak in you mentioned the draft. I need
to sneak in pick three. It's the only pick on
the board with any value my sixers. Is it as Bailey?
Who the hell are they taking? Is there a long
shot outside guy you put money on? Or am I
just betting plus one hundred you know, minus one ten
on this? Ace Bailey kid? A put pick.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Three, So I think that it's probably if you were
If you had to better, I would wait because I
don't think we have enough intel right now.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
But you had to, I would bet Bailey.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
But if I actually had to, I would bet if
I could, if it was in the market, I would
bet Bailey, not Sixers at three. There's a couple of
teams that are absolutely in on Bailey and are looking
to move up, and the Sixers are interested in those conversations.
So there's an opportunity there if the Sixers keep the pick.
Speaker 4 (34:48):
I think VJ. Edgecomb probably goes there. That's how I
have to go there talking.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
To me Letcher, are we really about to trade Maxing
that third pick for you? Honest? Is that real? Is
that just? Is that just off season talk?
Speaker 4 (34:58):
That's off season talk. Everyone's waiting. There was a meeting,
so there was two meetings.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
There was a meeting with.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
Giannis a couple of weeks ago, and no word came
out of that. That was with the front office. There
was an ownership meeting with the front office last week
and there's been like weird noise coming out of that one.
But so far everybody in Milwaukee is making noise about
Giannis is staying we're going to do a gap year.
It's going to be okay. That can change it in
any second if he asks out it's bidding season. But
(35:25):
I also think that they are less likely. I do
not think that, I will say this, I do not
think the Sixers are trading Tyres Maxie. I do not
find any situation where they trade Tyres Maxie. They are
more likely to trade every other asset.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I would say that they might.
Speaker 3 (35:38):
Even be more likely to trade Joelle than they are
to trade Tyrese. So I would not worry about trading
Tyres in the third I would not be surprised if
they did a deal for Jannis.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
That's a very Daryl Morey thing to do.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
But they'll have a lot of competition, and we're a
long way from there because we got to figure out
what Yannis wants first, and as of right now, there's
still no news and nobody knows.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
The Bay spot is so interesting because people are so
divided on Ace Bailey. Are you getting a guy who's
at a ceiling? Are you getting a guy who can
live up to the potential? Like if I'm the Sixers,
getting that three spot was a little bit of a
(36:20):
curse because with the first two spots with Flag and Harper,
you kind of know what you're getting. You're getting NBA
ready guys. You know they can come and make an impact,
and you know they've got superstar potential. Ace Bailey could
just as easily be James Wiseman as he is the
next great NBA All Star. Matt you agree? Is that
(36:42):
a real conversation.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, The problem is just like he's he won, he's
There's two different thoughts of people I've talked to.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
One is, I don't like his approach. He's a gunner.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
He's gonna shoot too much. He needs years to refine this.
He is not ready to play smart, competitive, high level
back basketball because of his mindset, and like, I don't
want to commit a lot of money to that kind
of guy. That's just like scoring doesn't make teammates better.
The other thought is like, look, he could be a
really great player. He just needs seasoning, he just needs
he's a prospect, but it's going to take several years.
(37:14):
Like he's just really raw, and so that combo I
think has got enough people skinned. But I think his
interesting is Again, I've heard that there's a couple of
teams that are in spots five through ten that are
very much interested in Bailey and are like, no, that's
the kind of talent that we need.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
But if the team's up at the top the other one.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
I thought Dylan Harper was like Locke, and he probably
is going to I'm not saying he's not. I will
say there's a lot of weirdness going on around, like
no one really knows what san Antonio is gonna do,
and there's a lot of scouts that are like, I'm
not putting Harper one hundred percent at two.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
I'm just not.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
So that'll be three thousand just for the people at
home to be number two.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
Yeah, Like I again, most likely that's what's gonna happen.
He is the consensus number two pick in this draft.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
I love Harper's game.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
I would take him too, But I do think that
there's a lot of questions about fit culture, a lot
of stuff.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
With Harper, and the Spurs are a.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Tough fit for a lot of guys, which is why
they go outside the box a lot of the time.
And they've got a logjam there with Fox and Castle,
who they do really like. He can out of a
bad draft. Class one Rookie of the Year and a
bad year, but they do like him, they're invested in him.
So I'm very curious that there could be some chaos
here at the top and that would be that would
make for a lot of wild outcomes.
Speaker 4 (38:29):
I think in the draft markets.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
How does Edgecombe fit with the Sixers. Their backcourt, like
from a starting perspective, was kind of loaded, and they've
got similar players, like undersized athletic players.
Speaker 3 (38:43):
Yeah, so the idea is just one He's like, if
he's the best talent, that's what you take.
Speaker 4 (38:46):
You always take a best talent with top three.
Speaker 3 (38:48):
If you like his talent better than Bailey, then you
just you take the best talent. The other kind of
mindset here is, look, if they move off Paul George,
then they're gonna need wing help, and the idea is
add as many wing guys, especially guys that can come
in and do multiple things, and they like the versatility
that Edgecomb is going to bring to the table. So
that combo of things is kind of I think why
(39:08):
Edgecomb is up there. Trey Johnson is the other name,
but there's a lot of skepticism that that any team
can really justify going for for Trey Johnson. What I
will say though, is, as always, the mock drafts are
not as important, the big boards are not as important.
Speaker 4 (39:23):
Picked by pick. They're good in.
Speaker 3 (39:25):
The aggregate, but if the sixers board is different, the
sixers board is different. And so much of this comes
down to It's why I am always most keen to
hear about how do the interviews of the combine go?
Because not the not the measurements, not the on court stuff,
how the interviews go because building personal relationships, building trust
and feeling like this is a kid that we can
(39:46):
invest with the future and and this much emphasis on
is really important. So that part, to me is just
as important as all as all the other stuff as
as far as the basketball skill set goes.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Well, Matt Moore, we trust you, and we trust everything
you've said about the NBA Finals, about the draft, about
who might win a title first between the Lakers, Spurs,
and Mavericks. Excellent work, brother. Everyone should listen to Buckets.
It's been an amazing playoff run. We got more weeks
(40:21):
ahead of us. Hopefully we'll get like I'd like six
at least, just because I like both these teams and
I'm going to miss the NBA when it's gone. But
Matt Moore, great work, great thanks for coming on, Thanks
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites Thursday. Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify,
(40:41):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
use five stars, say whatever you want to feedback as
a gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
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