June 10, 2025 • 31 mins
The NBA Finals are knotted at one game apiece, with the Pacers shocking the Thunder with a Game 1 buzzer beater. The Thunder enacted their revenge in a Game 2 blowout, leaving Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter questioning how best to bet the series moving forward.
Today, back to discuss all things betting in the NBA Finals is the host of Action’s NBA betting podcast BUCKETS, the effervescent Matt Moore. Together the trio breaks down how they seee the rest of the NBA Finals playing out, what bets still hold value, and how to properly pronounce the word "subsequent." #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network. I'm Chad Normand of the Action Network. Today
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Michael Padre might be a f professional better Signmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Hello, Simon, Chad, how are we doing? Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
You know I'm working on this book. And so I
was in Costa Rica last week. Spent forty hours in
Costa Rica. I was hanging out with a very high
stakes professional better much like yourself.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I couldnot get the game.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
One of the NBA Finals, and like I could see
in the app, like it was.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
A blowout, blowout, blowout.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
So I just like went to bed and then all
of a sudden, literally I turned off the lights because
it's two hours earlier in Costa Rica, turn off the lights.
So it was nine o'clock and my phone started blowing
up about Game one and what Halliburton did in the
game against the Thunder. We're going to talk to Matt Moore,
(01:16):
who came out with us before the finals. Obviously the
host of Buckets did a great job breaking it down.
We're now going to preview game three. That first game
was everything I wanted it to be and I got
a lot of thoughts on how it's going to play
out the rest of the way.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, it does pay to watch those games live and
bet live. I literally did exactly what we're talking on
the show. I bet the number on OKC. I think
they were up seventeen or sixteen to one point through
a very small hedge on the money line.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
And I did the same thing as you.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
I thought it was dead because I think they were
still down by more than ten head into the fourth,
and or maybe it was even.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
It might have been like five minutes left in the fourth.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
I think it was fifteen, Like three minutes left, they
were down fifteen.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Whatever it was. I had the same thing as you.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
I literally turn it off and that to the classic
You're not asleep, you're in bed and you're checking on
your phone because you literally you just want to make
see the money hit, and all of a sudden they
start coming back and it.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Was like just three after three.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
It is why I love the NBA right now, where
it's like these these teams, if they get hot, hit
these threes, they're all such good shooters, everyone on the team,
you can't really give up on it, right, so immediately
pop back up caught that final mint of the game,
and yeah, I feel like what we talked about exactly
what Matt happened, which was, you know, they needed to
get very lucky, had the game be kind of tightened
(02:34):
the fourth and make big shots. And now we're once
again seeing history. We're like this, this team that no
one believed in won that Game one with a ton
of luck and a ton of skill. But it was
the exact way they needed to, right. They were just
outgunned in that game. So it was really fun. And
then I think you and I both saw Game two
and it was back to I think what everyone expected, right, Okay,
(02:55):
season much better team.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
So it's it's a fun series going into it. I
really I had no real hope.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
For you know, what the Pacers could do, but that
Game one gave me a little bit of hope. And
now it's like, all right, we have to watch game
three and four now because two two, that's a real
series if they can steal one of these games here.
So I'm really loving what Dan Bay is doing with
these small market teams.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
Chad Well, I disagree. I think there's no hope. I
was explaining Matt Moore, welcome back. In, give us your game,
one game to take before we get into where we
think it's going.
Speaker 5 (03:32):
Yeah, incredible job by the Pacers to hang in there,
and you could kind of sense it. I love it
when you can sense it in the building even through
the television that you're like that. You can tell the
thunder fans were like, why aren't we up? More like eh,
and they scored it's eleven. Why aren't they up by twenty?
The Pacers we had a really good discussion about this.
He actually on buckets. If you create turnovers but you
(03:55):
don't score on them, that mitigates a lot of the
advantage that Okay to create because their half court offense
is not stellar. It's good, it's just not like elite level,
and so they need these points off of turnovers. And
what the Pacers have done the first two games is
they've been like, no, we're gonna turn the ball over,
but you're not scoring on them. So we turn the
ball over and don't score, you don't score on the
(04:16):
on the subsequent possession, and it's just zero zero, little reset. Now,
over the course of a series, it's probably not gonna
go well. And that's something that Indie's gotta get better
at Halburdon. I described you on the show as like
the man carries his equipment in a wheelbarrow, just like
has to carry that in an industrial grade not one
of the ones that you get it like at not
like a lerinkiek one you pick up at Walmart. You
(04:37):
get industrial grade to carry around that man's equipment because
it's insane what he's able to do in these clutch
time situations. This is literally the best clutch run we've
ever seen.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Ever.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
Nobody's ever hit more clutch shots.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Uh? Can we just say, did you say sub sweet subsequent?
Speaker 5 (04:58):
Sub did it again? I did it again? Brandon Anderson
called me out on this. He was like, that's how
you say subsequent and I was like, oh, I said, quint,
I always thought that it was. I'd always thought that
was one of those words that you can pronounce either way.
And then I was like, no, I'll look it up, Brandon.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
And it's not tomato tomorrow, potato subsequent, it's subsequent.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
All right.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So my take on all this Game one to Game
two is that we saw.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
The real.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Future when Oklahoma City demolished the Pacers in Game two
and they didn't let them come back, Like I tried
to stay up.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I wanted to be there for the end.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
I looked at and thought, this is what it looks
like without the miracle, and I think we got a miracle.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Thunder and five.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
I hear you.
Speaker 5 (05:58):
This is the problem, Okase, he's zero to seven on
the road ats in these playoffs, like they are not
great on the road against the spread. Now, they could
still win this game, right, so they can still get
to the thunder and five. I'm hoping that you're right,
because that's what I bet and originally was thunder mines
two and a half. And we're down to just thunder
and five to win that bet. The issue is that
I find a lot of the things from game two
(06:20):
second half, so like here's one they outscored him in
the second half of that game. Oh but there's garbage
time take out the last two minutes and it was
fifty nine to fifty nine the second half of that game.
Pacers had a one to thirty five offensive rating. That's
not thunder formula. Here Thunder shooters lou Dort shooting nineteen
percent on the road in the playoffs, Like this Thunder
(06:41):
team is a true deform role players shoot better at home,
shoot worse on the road. Squad, That building for Game
three is gonna be ballistic. First Finals game in twenty
five years basketball crazy state, even though they've had one
of the worst attendance rates in the NBA over the
last decade. That's gonna be absolutely a crazy environment. And
(07:01):
it's a really big situation. I think it's probably close,
But I do think that the Pacers are in a
really good spot here, and especially with this being Thunder
minus five and a half market, like, I have a
hard time getting to a spot where I want to
bet Okac even to cover less than two possessions, given
their history of how they've been on the road, why
they haven't been as good on the road ats, and
(07:22):
how indieman. The spot for Indie here I think is
really good.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Well, right now, you mentioned the series prices. The prices are.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
The Thunder plus two ninety to win the series four
to two, plus two ninety to win the series four
to three. The Pacers numbers are obviously higher, We're talking
much bigger numbers, but plus sixteen hundred to win the
series four to one. It's interesting to me you talk
(07:54):
about the Pacers as a home team in a basketball
mad state.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The Pacers have never mattered in Indiana.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
You know, they had Reggie Miller, kind of interesting when
they were playing the Knicks. They made that finals, but
they've never been a team anyone in Indiana talks about.
And they've always had a magnificent stadium. That Fieldhouse is
a great place to watch a game. This team feels
like it has something a little bit different that is sustainable,
(08:28):
that has energy, that it has a personality, that has
a style of play that people can latch onto. It's
not just a sort of, for lack of a better term,
NFC South or AFC South team, Matt Moore, do you
sense that amongst the NBA denizens right now?
Speaker 5 (08:48):
I was just about to say this is an AFC
South ass take from you, Chad, the perennial South hater
of professional sports. You know, I think I think those
crowds in the in the mid nineties at the Attendants data,
but I think they were really great. I think they
believed him in the mid two thousands with the our
test team with Ermaine O'Neil before the brawl right of
the Malice. I think that Indiana, because they've got it
(09:10):
one of the problems is when you've got a history
of winning in a certain sport, like Indiana's basketball program has,
then you've got a different standard for success. And Denver's
like this, I think with football, where because the college
sports have never really been relevant on any sort of
significant scale because they haven't won at a significant level.
It's it really is compared to the Broncos. Like Broncos
(09:32):
have all these championships, and you win, and will pay
attention to you. That's how you know Pro basketball was too.
It was We're not gonna pay attention to the Nuggets
until they win. Then they won, and now the crowds
are really good. And that's true for most places, but
these true small markets. I think you're right that there's
a difference between like Okac Okac, when they have bad teams,
their crowds still gonna be great. Portland, when they have
bad teams, crowds still great. Indiana, though, I think does
(09:54):
sense that there's something different about this team. This is
maybe the most fun run that we've seen an NBA
playoff hit. I have a hard time thinking back to
a team that was more fun than this one when
you count the way that they play, the comebacks, and
all the ways that they've been able to do this,
I think it does add up to something where and
it doesn't seem like the windows closing. It's not a
one year deal, because you would have thought that last
(10:16):
year they made the conference finals, Okay, they'll come back
to earth a little bit, and instead they got better
and made the finals this year. And even if it
did take a certain series of events, it still shows
that they're good enough to deliver when these games get tight,
and that they're made for this, and I think that's
really important in the enthusiasm I think that is building
around this Pacer squad.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So what are we doing now? Are we for one?
Are we four to two? What is your take on
how this plays out?
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (10:47):
I bet Pacers or I bet Thunder four to two
yesterday plus two ninety I still make the Thunder likely
to win this series. Game series script to me feels okay,
they stole the one that instantly takes the ability for
the four to one. It's gonna be really difficult. I
just do not have a lot of faith in Okase,
given how I've seen them up close and personal on
the road in these playoffs, to take both of them
(11:09):
one of them will be close enough to where it's
at least a coin flip. I do not think that
Indies getting both at home. I do not think the
Thunder are getting both at home. I'm gonna play Pacers
money line game one. If it loses, I'll be back
on him in game two. I think whoever loses Game
two is gonna be a great spot to play, or
whoever loses Game three is a great spot to play
in game four. Thunder are gonna win Game five by
(11:29):
by margin. I'll be on alts all over the place
for Thunder Game five, regardless of series script, unless there's
an injury or a black Swan event. If Thunder win
Game three, I'm still on thundering Game five by probably
twenty or more. If they win game four, I'm on
them in Thunder Game five and by twenty or more.
PACER's Game six is gonna be a tough one. This
isnt the same as I think the Denver spot. I
(11:50):
think that the OKC might be in a better position
to finish it on the road in game six, and
they wear versus Denver in that series, you're gonna see.
I think a lot of adjustments. One of things I'm
really curious about is how my many adjustments does Carlisle
throw at them in this game? In game three, because
he's kept the zone very close to the vest, they
made some offensive adjustments, but they haven't done a lot
(12:11):
they Carlisle's script in game two was, Hey, let's try
and win, but we're not gonna show them the cards here.
I'm not playing him until I have to. We got
the one I needed to be able to stretch this out.
So the question is, like, do you rely on momentum,
home crowd better shooting in game three or do you
feel like you need to pull out the tricks, the
bells and whistles to get game three because you use
(12:32):
them in game three. Now they're on the table for
OKC to adjust to in game four. Your ideal would
be use momentum, energy, effort, home crowd shooting, get game three,
then throw the kitchen sink at him in game four.
That's like the script for Indie. But I still don't
think that's gonna be good enough for them to get both.
I still think the thunder and six is our most
likely outcome here after they stole game one.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Oh, we miss an opportunity here, like this is what
we live for. This team we just talked about, they've
done something in this pace of team that's never been
done before. Like they are incredibly clutch. I feel like
if this was another sport, mean you would have a
better view on it. With basketball, we're just so used
to the favorites always coming through, right, the better teams
with the better player usually win.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
But this is the rare opportunity.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
She feels like, Chad, this isn't Golden State or those
lebron teams. This is a very young team, first time
doing it. You know, they don't have a joker on
this team.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
I know.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
You know we can say they have the MVP of
the league. Yes we know that, but it's it just
feels different. Where like the Pacers, I was looking for
a reason I take them, and that game one was
so exactly what I was looking forward. It's like they
know they're not better, they know they don't have the
guys that this OKAC team does, but they have this
unique ability to believe that.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
The j R.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
Smith they think they're all the best shooters in the world,
and they really believe it whether they are they aren't,
And I love it. We like that confidence in that
final two to three minutes, like like Matt said, you
could feel through the TV right the thunder got so
tight and they didn't have a Kobe, a Steph Curry
someone to bail them out take a shot to get
two points. And that's what like we're talking here, is
(14:09):
that if they steal another one here, if they do
steal game three, that pressure on okay See in game four,
I mean, I.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Can't even imagine it.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I can't imagine them sitting there with that type of
pressure where you know they're down now two to one
on the road in an environment that Matt just.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
Told us they've struggled on the road, Chad. So, I
don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
I feels like we're overlooking it. Are we just are
we missing it here? Should we be taking the Pacers?
Is this are we overlooking? Or is what we just
talked about like game two? Is that what this series
is like? Is okay See really that much better? Pacers
simply got lucky in game one.
Speaker 4 (14:43):
It was a bit of a fluke.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
So I'm I don't know what they do in this
game one a Game three here, I'm tempted to just
bet Pacers money line. It feels like a nice spot
for them to bounce back. And I feel like another
thing Matt talked about that second half in that Game two,
that's the Pacer team I expect to see, which is
a very, very smart with the ball, high flying offense
(15:05):
that scores buckets.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So I don't know, it feels interesting. We're already leaving
them for dead here where It's like, I don't know,
this feels like a seven to sixth type of series.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
So I'm gonna take that four to two bet with okay,
see with you, Matt, But I'm also gonna throw a
four to three bet on the Pacers at you know,
last time I checked it was crazy, guys. It might
have been ten to one, so it might have come down,
but still, I mean, we're talking ten to one here
on Pacers.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
So yeah, I'm with you, guys.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
I'm trying to play the series price and it does
feel like a four to two okay, see, but I
see there's a window.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
I think Matt Moore sees what I'm seeing here.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
There's a window for a four to three Pacers Game
seven win. It just we're so due. When's the last
when's the last one we had? Matt Moore was it
Mavericks over the heat.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
Was that the last big upset we had.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Cavs twenty sixteen had to be was the was the
big one Warriors was technically one in twenty twenty two.
You guys were dead on in that series. I came
on after talking to Brandon Anderson was like, it's Celtics,
They're way better, They're gonna win this series. And you
both were like, it's Steph Curry and the Warriors, Man,
what are you doing? And you were absolutely right on
that one.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
But that was the same thing.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
The first time Celtics have really gotten there and the
lights were very bright. That's just my biggest pause, Like
there's just something about the Pacers team. They seem like,
even though they're not that much more of a veteran team,
they just feel like they have a different type of
confidence when it's tight at the end of these games
than this Thunder team does. So I'm just I'm trying
to find some a little opening chat. This is what
(16:29):
professional betters do. We see cracks, We feel like history
repeats itself, and I don't know the way this series
has already gone started. It's like, okay, see has opened
the door for the Spacer's team. If it was two oh,
I'd have a totally different tuneyear. They would have a
ton of confidence heading into this game against the Spacers team.
But the fact that it's one to one, I don't know,
it feels like we're overlooking the Spacers team, where it's
(16:51):
like these are the exact type of dogs we love
to bet chat. So I'm just it's interesting to see
how much you're just fuck these guys. Okay, seem on
it that's the team I want to back. So I'm
just I'm shocked by your position.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
I guess.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
I'm just I'm a little bit swayed by looking at
this as and look, I was looking at this the
same way when the Celtics played the next and I
was dead wrong, which was if not for the Celtics
missing two or three three pointers in games won in
games in Game one, in Game two, then they're up
(17:25):
three to zero in that series, and we're not talking
about the Knicks as cardiac kids and finding ways to
come back from twenty points down in multiple games, because
the Celtics were clearly the better team. So the Thunder
are clearly the better team. They've got more talent, they've
(17:46):
got more aggressive, longer players on defense.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
I love the Pacers.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
We've been saying all postseason the Pacers floor is so
high because the basketball IQ for that team is so
so high. Nemhardnee Smith. Even Obi Topping when he comes in,
like is playing above and beyond. I think what anyone
thought he'd be playing at McConnell. You know, obviously Halliburton,
(18:13):
like they're all great, but okay, see has players that
are equally great and IQ perspective, and then better from
a talent perspective, everyone they're bringing off the bench is
better than who the Pacers are bringing off the bench.
And so I'm just thinking, Okay, the Thunder had one
collapse in a game in which they're not used to
(18:38):
playing in a high pressure situation like that in Game
one of the Finals, and that's all the Pacers do,
so it played to their strength.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Memoir, would you call that a collapse or they did?
They simply get outplayed by the Pacers end of that game.
Speaker 4 (18:50):
Because they had shots. It didn't feel like a collapse
where it's like, yeah, you know, they just hit shots
and then they got they just got tight, like okay,
so you just could not hit a shot even their
free throws.
Speaker 5 (19:00):
This guy wasn't that like the knixt Game one was
a collapse, right, Yes, this felt more like the Pacers
kept it just within range and then they did absolutely
tighten up like Jalen Williams wide open three pointer off
of Shay's split in the double miss. Shae's got that
pull up now, Shaye, I think just missed a shot.
Like I think Shake and Shade probably hit that shot,
you know, eight out of ten times on that mid
range pull pull up like his he that that pull
(19:21):
up from him is money. But I do think that
this is one of the things I talked about. This
is the okay See advantage in this series. Is White
chat talked about they're better, but they're better because they're
so dominant in the margins and what Indy's done in
this series, and it actually the same thing is true
for Game one. In Game two, okay S's not killing
(19:42):
him in the margins. Okay S killed him in Game two.
In shot variants, Pacers shot fourteen to forty from three.
They're still getting up forty three pointers against Oka See.
And in Game two with the with the whole season
on the line for oka See, Indiana missed miss shots,
good contests, good defense, but missed a ton of threes,
(20:04):
miss good opportunities. And okay see, on the other hand,
got twenty points from Alex Caruso, Like that's a very
tough thing for them to do, especially on the road.
This is where it gets interesting because I agree with Chad,
like they are better and it's about the margin and
whether Indy can shrink that margin from the power rating
standpoint to where it's within range. Because once it gets
(20:25):
within range, now this is about can you make shots?
And that's Indy. Like, Indy's the better shooting team. They've
been the better shooting team in the regular season, in
the playoffs, in half court and in the series. Like,
they are a better shooting team, but they're gotta get
it within range for them to be able to do that.
And the question is gonna be can Carlisle and the
Holmes environment open it up, because I will say it's
(20:47):
it's hard to blow out Okay see, if you win,
you win close. But OKAC has not been able to
blow teams out on the road, which is where they're comfortable.
That's where they're comfortable they can win these close games.
They won Game four in ever close environment really proves
something they have learned from this. This isn't like a
team where it's like, yeah, I don't know, man, if
it gets tight, I think they're gonna Like the Celtics,
(21:08):
I think were much more like that the last couple
of years. They won the title last year because nobody
could threaten them. Okay, see, it's like they got a chance.
But once it gets in the variance mode because of
the number, there's a lot of value on Indiana, it's
just like, can they hang on to be in that
position for the shop variants to come through for them?
Speaker 1 (21:26):
You mentioned uh Carlisle earlier in the show. He's like, Yeah,
we knew we weren't going to win that game, And
I feel like that happens more often in the NBA
than any other sport. Yep, they know going in like
they're gonna compete, But do you think there is actually
something the players pull back, the coaches change strategy, Like
(21:48):
what does that mean they know they're not going to
win the game, and why wouldn't they try to win
the game.
Speaker 5 (21:52):
So every series, he's got a rhythm and flow to it. Rix'
been in so many of these to understand it and
Now what's been amazing is a lot of the ways
to kind of see how much are they adjusting? And
what you do is you look at things like have
they changed their matchups, have they changed their rotation? Did
they tighten the rotation? Is one guy completely out? Do
they shift this around? How much have they shifted their
game plan going in from the previous game into this one.
(22:14):
And what's been fascinating is, like Zachlo said this on
Simmons podcast, and I completely agree with it. Like if
you talk to Indy folks, it's the same thing. They
like they game plan for the series to go long,
to have that kind of rhythm and flow, and great
coaches know you never want to be the first one
to adjust, and you want to hang onto those adjustments
as long as possible, because once you play that card,
(22:35):
that's it. You can't replay it because now they've seen it,
they've scripted it, they've got the counters built in for it.
You have to save them. And so I think the
thing in game two is they've stolen a lot of these.
They stole Game two versus the Nixon Cleveland without making
major adjustments, and that got them to be able to
win those series short versus having to go seven, even
(22:56):
when they have home court advantage, Like that's the real
difference here, Like even when they went six versus the Knicks,
it's mostly it's because Nick's had that Game five at home.
So with Carlisle, I think you go in and you say, look,
we're gonna compete. We're gonna like, these are the things
we want to clean up, but we're not gonna make
these changes that are gonna inherently screw with them because
(23:16):
you need the possessions where they're trying to figure them
out and adjust for it to be late enough in
the game or in the series for it to matter
in turning that result your way, because once you play it,
that's it. Most adjustments are gone by six and seven,
Like you're out of adjustments. It's just who makes shots.
And so with Carlisle, he's gonna hold back on some
(23:38):
of that to be able to make sure he plays
at the right time. I don't know if that comes
in game three or game four, you can look at
it and say, hey, we can't lose Game three. Then
they've retaken home court. They're gonna you know, and we're
now forced into having to win multiple games on the
road instead, do you save it for game three or
Game four? That to me is a question.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
See that, that's Simon why I'm hesitant to go all
in on. Okay, See, as good as their coach is,
Mark Degnel is a really good coach.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Carlisle. I mean, he's such a wily veteran.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
He's obviously won a title, He's now taken another team
to the finals. He's a brilliant not just basketball coach,
he's a brilliant NBA tactician. And so if Carlisle sees
something that makes him think, all right, this is going
to be a long series, and I'm willing to sacrifice
tactical decisions in game two because I'm going to need
(24:36):
them in say, game four, game five, that makes me
a little bit more inclined to at least think about
a serious price that is six or seven games.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
I'm telling these little things you love about the Pacers,
And that's why I was shocking you king On here.
I was like, this feels like the exact type of
team that Chad would be suckered into betting, the type
of dog where.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
It's like I don't want to be a sucker.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Well, I am I'm I'm gonna be one of those
people I bet them four to three. It's like it
would be hilarious if the Pacers do win four to
two now and I lose both bets. But everything about it,
I just was just like, oh my god. The Patriots team,
even in that blow loss. That's what gave me confidence
that game too. It's just like, there's no quit in
that team. There was no woe was me. It was
(25:19):
a still belief of we can get back from this game.
And I'm like, okay, okay's gonna fiel that up their
ass the entire series where even when anytime they have
any type of lead, they're gonna know there's no quit
in that other team. And you know, even like look
at our notes right here, the fact that the sports
books already have SGA and minus five to fifty for
finals MVP man More, is that not the most disrespectful
(25:42):
thing you've ever seen? If I was a Pacers that
would be on my bulletin board. It's one to one.
What are those odds by the sportsbooks right now? Has
he really been that dominant in this series? And that
do that much respect from the books minus five fifty
Finals MVP.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
That's crazy.
Speaker 5 (25:57):
Yeah, I mean it's also reflective of like there's a
minus five hundre it as well in the market, just
reflective of basically it's the series price because nobody else
is gonna be able to catch him. I've very I
always want to bet Jalen Williams in these spots because
of a skill set, but Shay's been able to to
kind of get there and he's gonna win if they
win the series. Shay's gonna win it because nobody else
is really going to have a case for it. If
(26:18):
Shae doesn't play well, they're not going to win. Like
there's just not They will not have enough offense if
Shaye Gillish Alexander does not play well, even if they
win a bunch of defensive or they're in a bunch
of defensive games. Yea, yeah, you know, Caruso is like
an interesting one after having playing game too, right, Like
that's a very good Like that's a fun long shot,
But you have to think about, like what are the
(26:38):
chances of them being able to win that many games
against this Pacers offense? Because the idea is like, well,
okayse he's better suited for a defensive slug fest because
they're the better defensive team. If it's a defensive slug
fest again, you're into one or two shots can win
you the game. Do you want Okac shooters or do
you want Indiana's Because I want Indiana's. And that's where
I think it gets interesting. I think Pascal Siakama is
(27:00):
the one that's actually like the really badly priced in
the market because when Siakam has twenty or more points,
the Pacers are seven and one straight up in ats
in the playoffs when he has when he has good games,
they win. So like, I'm a spoiler gonna be on
Siakam props for buckets in Game three, which I'm doing
after the show. So that's a look there.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
Well, look, when he has twenty or more points, it
also means Halliburton is getting the ball out of his
hands quickly and getting them into their offense quickly and
finding the mismatch so Hallimburton can post, so Siakam can
post someone up and hit that mid range jumper that
he's so good at hitting. One of my favorite things
(27:40):
in NBA Finals every year is when a guy starts
to shine and gets his flowers a little bit and
for me that that player has been Aaron NEI Smith,
Like his defense against Brunson, the way he is so
thoughtful in moving his body and getting into position, and
(28:00):
his ability to shoot the ball, Like he has become
a brilliant player. Like being in New England, remembering the
Celtics drafting him and him riding the pine uh and
then he disappeared to Indian. I'm like, oh, that's such
a bummer. Like I liked his story and I was
rooting for the kid. He's turned into a straight man
(28:21):
playing for the Pacers. I love this guy, love him,
talk about his development.
Speaker 5 (28:25):
He's phenomenal. I talked to him at Summer League after
his rookie season, and you can just tell like he
had the right mindset of what it was he was
going to work on and how much he was going
to focus. And he's had He had like two great
runs at Summer League to the point where I was like,
do you guys realize, like how good Aaron the Smith
is going to be? And then like the Celtics just
didn't play him for a team that played a lot
of guys. And he gets this opportunity in Indiana and
(28:45):
he is the prototypical wing that you want. You want
guys with size, physicality, length to be able to contest,
who can get over screens and can knock down the three.
And he's's been phenomenal for them, Like he's been a
great rebounder for them, he's been great steals. He's their
best on ball defender coming over those screens. He's the
reason why they were able to beat the next he
is the reason that they beat the New York Next.
(29:07):
He's number one A on my list for why they
got past them. His playing that series was absolutely tremendous,
and it's like a good reminder of some guys don't
pop immediately. Some guys don't walk into training camp and
you're like, Oh, that guy's gonna be awesome every single game,
even if he's not a superstar, Like, that guy's gonna
be great. Some guys that takes some time. But if
you're if you have the skill set and you can
(29:28):
build on it and you're patient, And this Pacers team
is such a great example of see a vision with guys,
of seeing what they could be rather than what they
can't be, And that to me has been like the
lesson of their team build and getting to the finals.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
All right, then I'm starting to feel more comfortable about
at least betting OKC and six or the Pacers in seven.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Like the way you've described.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
The Pacers and their intangibles, how could I not want
to root for this team, And.
Speaker 5 (30:00):
Like, look, I'll tell you I feel better about OKAC
and six than seven. If this gets to seven, that
is they're gonna They've kept saying like, well we've been
at we faced adversity. We were down two one on
the road versus Denver, and I'm like, yeah, well Denver
wasn't good. Like I've covered that team, they were not good.
And to Simon's point, if this gets to seven, I
(30:21):
am terrified for OKAC because like house money through the
roof for the Indiana Pacers, you made Game seven versus
the sixty eight win Thunder. They went on the road
last year and won a Game seven in Madison Square Garden.
Nobody thought they could win.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
This team is like the.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
Perfect squad to steal a Game seven on the road.
So I feel way better about OKAC and six than
I do about OKAC and seven. If it gets to
that point.
Speaker 2 (30:46):
Then that's what we're doing, Simon.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
We're going to six and the seven.
Speaker 1 (30:50):
We're doing six and seven. I like Pacers and seven,
I like thunder and six. I love it all right,
Matt Moore, host of Buckets, thanks for coming on the show.
Game three is at eight thirty Eastern Wednesday in Indianapolis.
The current line Indie plus five and a half total
two twenty eight and a half. Simon and I will
(31:11):
return with our next episode, Favorites Thursday on the Action
Number of YouTube page. Download us to Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your podse rate review, subscribe with with Spotstars,
say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Feedback is again until next time, Love you.
Speaker 5 (31:29):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network. I'm Chad Normand of the Action Network. Today
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Michael Padre might be a f professional better Signmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Hello, Simon, Chad, how are we doing? Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
You know I'm working on this book. And so I
was in Costa Rica last week. Spent forty hours in
Costa Rica. I was hanging out with a very high
stakes professional better much like yourself.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I couldnot get the game.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
One of the NBA Finals, and like I could see
in the app, like it was.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
A blowout, blowout, blowout.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
So I just like went to bed and then all
of a sudden, literally I turned off the lights because
it's two hours earlier in Costa Rica, turn off the lights.
So it was nine o'clock and my phone started blowing
up about Game one and what Halliburton did in the
game against the Thunder. We're going to talk to Matt Moore,
(01:16):
who came out with us before the finals. Obviously the
host of Buckets did a great job breaking it down.
We're now going to preview game three. That first game
was everything I wanted it to be and I got
a lot of thoughts on how it's going to play
out the rest of the way.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, it does pay to watch those games live and
bet live. I literally did exactly what we're talking on
the show. I bet the number on OKC. I think
they were up seventeen or sixteen to one point through
a very small hedge on the money line.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
And I did the same thing as you.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
I thought it was dead because I think they were
still down by more than ten head into the fourth,
and or maybe it was even.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
It might have been like five minutes left in the fourth.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
I think it was fifteen, Like three minutes left, they
were down fifteen.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Whatever it was. I had the same thing as you.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
I literally turn it off and that to the classic
You're not asleep, you're in bed and you're checking on
your phone because you literally you just want to make
see the money hit, and all of a sudden they
start coming back and it.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Was like just three after three.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
It is why I love the NBA right now, where
it's like these these teams, if they get hot, hit
these threes, they're all such good shooters, everyone on the team,
you can't really give up on it, right, so immediately
pop back up caught that final mint of the game,
and yeah, I feel like what we talked about exactly
what Matt happened, which was, you know, they needed to
get very lucky, had the game be kind of tightened
(02:34):
the fourth and make big shots. And now we're once
again seeing history. We're like this, this team that no
one believed in won that Game one with a ton
of luck and a ton of skill. But it was
the exact way they needed to, right. They were just
outgunned in that game. So it was really fun. And
then I think you and I both saw Game two
and it was back to I think what everyone expected, right, Okay,
(02:55):
season much better team.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
So it's it's a fun series going into it. I
really I had no real hope.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
For you know, what the Pacers could do, but that
Game one gave me a little bit of hope. And
now it's like, all right, we have to watch game
three and four now because two two, that's a real
series if they can steal one of these games here.
So I'm really loving what Dan Bay is doing with
these small market teams.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
Chad Well, I disagree. I think there's no hope. I
was explaining Matt Moore, welcome back. In, give us your game,
one game to take before we get into where we
think it's going.
Speaker 5 (03:32):
Yeah, incredible job by the Pacers to hang in there,
and you could kind of sense it. I love it
when you can sense it in the building even through
the television that you're like that. You can tell the
thunder fans were like, why aren't we up? More like eh,
and they scored it's eleven. Why aren't they up by twenty?
The Pacers we had a really good discussion about this.
He actually on buckets. If you create turnovers but you
(03:55):
don't score on them, that mitigates a lot of the
advantage that Okay to create because their half court offense
is not stellar. It's good, it's just not like elite level,
and so they need these points off of turnovers. And
what the Pacers have done the first two games is
they've been like, no, we're gonna turn the ball over,
but you're not scoring on them. So we turn the
ball over and don't score, you don't score on the
(04:16):
on the subsequent possession, and it's just zero zero, little reset. Now,
over the course of a series, it's probably not gonna
go well. And that's something that Indie's gotta get better
at Halburdon. I described you on the show as like
the man carries his equipment in a wheelbarrow, just like
has to carry that in an industrial grade not one
of the ones that you get it like at not
like a lerinkiek one you pick up at Walmart. You
(04:37):
get industrial grade to carry around that man's equipment because
it's insane what he's able to do in these clutch
time situations. This is literally the best clutch run we've
ever seen.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Ever.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
Nobody's ever hit more clutch shots.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Uh? Can we just say, did you say sub sweet subsequent?
Speaker 5 (04:58):
Sub did it again? I did it again? Brandon Anderson
called me out on this. He was like, that's how
you say subsequent and I was like, oh, I said, quint,
I always thought that it was. I'd always thought that
was one of those words that you can pronounce either way.
And then I was like, no, I'll look it up, Brandon.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
And it's not tomato tomorrow, potato subsequent, it's subsequent.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
All right.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So my take on all this Game one to Game
two is that we saw.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
The real.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Future when Oklahoma City demolished the Pacers in Game two
and they didn't let them come back, Like I tried
to stay up.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I wanted to be there for the end.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
I looked at and thought, this is what it looks
like without the miracle, and I think we got a miracle.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Thunder and five.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
I hear you.
Speaker 5 (05:58):
This is the problem, Okase, he's zero to seven on
the road ats in these playoffs, like they are not
great on the road against the spread. Now, they could
still win this game, right, so they can still get
to the thunder and five. I'm hoping that you're right,
because that's what I bet and originally was thunder mines
two and a half. And we're down to just thunder
and five to win that bet. The issue is that
I find a lot of the things from game two
(06:20):
second half, so like here's one they outscored him in
the second half of that game. Oh but there's garbage
time take out the last two minutes and it was
fifty nine to fifty nine the second half of that game.
Pacers had a one to thirty five offensive rating. That's
not thunder formula. Here Thunder shooters lou Dort shooting nineteen
percent on the road in the playoffs, Like this Thunder
(06:41):
team is a true deform role players shoot better at home,
shoot worse on the road. Squad, That building for Game
three is gonna be ballistic. First Finals game in twenty
five years basketball crazy state, even though they've had one
of the worst attendance rates in the NBA over the
last decade. That's gonna be absolutely a crazy environment. And
(07:01):
it's a really big situation. I think it's probably close,
But I do think that the Pacers are in a
really good spot here, and especially with this being Thunder
minus five and a half market, like, I have a
hard time getting to a spot where I want to
bet Okac even to cover less than two possessions, given
their history of how they've been on the road, why
they haven't been as good on the road ats, and
(07:22):
how indieman. The spot for Indie here I think is
really good.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Well, right now, you mentioned the series prices. The prices are.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
The Thunder plus two ninety to win the series four
to two, plus two ninety to win the series four
to three. The Pacers numbers are obviously higher, We're talking
much bigger numbers, but plus sixteen hundred to win the
series four to one. It's interesting to me you talk
(07:54):
about the Pacers as a home team in a basketball
mad state.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The Pacers have never mattered in Indiana.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
You know, they had Reggie Miller, kind of interesting when
they were playing the Knicks. They made that finals, but
they've never been a team anyone in Indiana talks about.
And they've always had a magnificent stadium. That Fieldhouse is
a great place to watch a game. This team feels
like it has something a little bit different that is sustainable,
(08:28):
that has energy, that it has a personality, that has
a style of play that people can latch onto. It's
not just a sort of, for lack of a better term,
NFC South or AFC South team, Matt Moore, do you
sense that amongst the NBA denizens right now?
Speaker 5 (08:48):
I was just about to say this is an AFC
South ass take from you, Chad, the perennial South hater
of professional sports. You know, I think I think those
crowds in the in the mid nineties at the Attendants data,
but I think they were really great. I think they
believed him in the mid two thousands with the our
test team with Ermaine O'Neil before the brawl right of
the Malice. I think that Indiana, because they've got it
(09:10):
one of the problems is when you've got a history
of winning in a certain sport, like Indiana's basketball program has,
then you've got a different standard for success. And Denver's
like this, I think with football, where because the college
sports have never really been relevant on any sort of
significant scale because they haven't won at a significant level.
It's it really is compared to the Broncos. Like Broncos
(09:32):
have all these championships, and you win, and will pay
attention to you. That's how you know Pro basketball was too.
It was We're not gonna pay attention to the Nuggets
until they win. Then they won, and now the crowds
are really good. And that's true for most places, but
these true small markets. I think you're right that there's
a difference between like Okac Okac, when they have bad teams,
their crowds still gonna be great. Portland, when they have
bad teams, crowds still great. Indiana, though, I think does
(09:54):
sense that there's something different about this team. This is
maybe the most fun run that we've seen an NBA
playoff hit. I have a hard time thinking back to
a team that was more fun than this one when
you count the way that they play, the comebacks, and
all the ways that they've been able to do this,
I think it does add up to something where and
it doesn't seem like the windows closing. It's not a
one year deal, because you would have thought that last
(10:16):
year they made the conference finals, Okay, they'll come back
to earth a little bit, and instead they got better
and made the finals this year. And even if it
did take a certain series of events, it still shows
that they're good enough to deliver when these games get tight,
and that they're made for this, and I think that's
really important in the enthusiasm I think that is building
around this Pacer squad.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So what are we doing now? Are we for one?
Are we four to two? What is your take on
how this plays out?
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (10:47):
I bet Pacers or I bet Thunder four to two
yesterday plus two ninety I still make the Thunder likely
to win this series. Game series script to me feels okay,
they stole the one that instantly takes the ability for
the four to one. It's gonna be really difficult. I
just do not have a lot of faith in Okase,
given how I've seen them up close and personal on
the road in these playoffs, to take both of them
(11:09):
one of them will be close enough to where it's
at least a coin flip. I do not think that
Indies getting both at home. I do not think the
Thunder are getting both at home. I'm gonna play Pacers
money line game one. If it loses, I'll be back
on him in game two. I think whoever loses Game
two is gonna be a great spot to play, or
whoever loses Game three is a great spot to play
in game four. Thunder are gonna win Game five by
(11:29):
by margin. I'll be on alts all over the place
for Thunder Game five, regardless of series script, unless there's
an injury or a black Swan event. If Thunder win
Game three, I'm still on thundering Game five by probably
twenty or more. If they win game four, I'm on
them in Thunder Game five and by twenty or more.
PACER's Game six is gonna be a tough one. This
isnt the same as I think the Denver spot. I
(11:50):
think that the OKC might be in a better position
to finish it on the road in game six, and
they wear versus Denver in that series, you're gonna see.
I think a lot of adjustments. One of things I'm
really curious about is how my many adjustments does Carlisle
throw at them in this game? In game three, because
he's kept the zone very close to the vest, they
made some offensive adjustments, but they haven't done a lot
(12:11):
they Carlisle's script in game two was, Hey, let's try
and win, but we're not gonna show them the cards here.
I'm not playing him until I have to. We got
the one I needed to be able to stretch this out.
So the question is, like, do you rely on momentum,
home crowd better shooting in game three or do you
feel like you need to pull out the tricks, the
bells and whistles to get game three because you use
(12:32):
them in game three. Now they're on the table for
OKC to adjust to in game four. Your ideal would
be use momentum, energy, effort, home crowd shooting, get game three,
then throw the kitchen sink at him in game four.
That's like the script for Indie. But I still don't
think that's gonna be good enough for them to get both.
I still think the thunder and six is our most
likely outcome here after they stole game one.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Oh, we miss an opportunity here, like this is what
we live for. This team we just talked about, they've
done something in this pace of team that's never been
done before. Like they are incredibly clutch. I feel like
if this was another sport, mean you would have a
better view on it. With basketball, we're just so used
to the favorites always coming through, right, the better teams
with the better player usually win.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
But this is the rare opportunity.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
She feels like, Chad, this isn't Golden State or those
lebron teams. This is a very young team, first time
doing it. You know, they don't have a joker on
this team.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
I know.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
You know we can say they have the MVP of
the league. Yes we know that, but it's it just
feels different. Where like the Pacers, I was looking for
a reason I take them, and that game one was
so exactly what I was looking forward. It's like they
know they're not better, they know they don't have the
guys that this OKAC team does, but they have this
unique ability to believe that.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
The j R.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
Smith they think they're all the best shooters in the world,
and they really believe it whether they are they aren't,
And I love it. We like that confidence in that
final two to three minutes, like like Matt said, you
could feel through the TV right the thunder got so
tight and they didn't have a Kobe, a Steph Curry
someone to bail them out take a shot to get
two points. And that's what like we're talking here, is
(14:09):
that if they steal another one here, if they do
steal game three, that pressure on okay See in game four,
I mean, I.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Can't even imagine it.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I can't imagine them sitting there with that type of
pressure where you know they're down now two to one
on the road in an environment that Matt just.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
Told us they've struggled on the road, Chad. So, I
don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
I feels like we're overlooking it. Are we just are
we missing it here? Should we be taking the Pacers?
Is this are we overlooking? Or is what we just
talked about like game two? Is that what this series
is like? Is okay See really that much better? Pacers
simply got lucky in game one.
Speaker 4 (14:43):
It was a bit of a fluke.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
So I'm I don't know what they do in this
game one a Game three here, I'm tempted to just
bet Pacers money line. It feels like a nice spot
for them to bounce back. And I feel like another
thing Matt talked about that second half in that Game two,
that's the Pacer team I expect to see, which is
a very, very smart with the ball, high flying offense
(15:05):
that scores buckets.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So I don't know, it feels interesting. We're already leaving
them for dead here where It's like, I don't know,
this feels like a seven to sixth type of series.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
So I'm gonna take that four to two bet with okay,
see with you, Matt, But I'm also gonna throw a
four to three bet on the Pacers at you know,
last time I checked it was crazy, guys. It might
have been ten to one, so it might have come down,
but still, I mean, we're talking ten to one here
on Pacers.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
So yeah, I'm with you, guys.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
I'm trying to play the series price and it does
feel like a four to two okay, see, but I
see there's a window.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
I think Matt Moore sees what I'm seeing here.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
There's a window for a four to three Pacers Game
seven win. It just we're so due. When's the last
when's the last one we had? Matt Moore was it
Mavericks over the heat.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
Was that the last big upset we had.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Cavs twenty sixteen had to be was the was the
big one Warriors was technically one in twenty twenty two.
You guys were dead on in that series. I came
on after talking to Brandon Anderson was like, it's Celtics,
They're way better, They're gonna win this series. And you
both were like, it's Steph Curry and the Warriors, Man,
what are you doing? And you were absolutely right on
that one.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
But that was the same thing.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
The first time Celtics have really gotten there and the
lights were very bright. That's just my biggest pause, Like
there's just something about the Pacers team. They seem like,
even though they're not that much more of a veteran team,
they just feel like they have a different type of
confidence when it's tight at the end of these games
than this Thunder team does. So I'm just I'm trying
to find some a little opening chat. This is what
(16:29):
professional betters do. We see cracks, We feel like history
repeats itself, and I don't know the way this series
has already gone started. It's like, okay, see has opened
the door for the Spacer's team. If it was two oh,
I'd have a totally different tuneyear. They would have a
ton of confidence heading into this game against the Spacers team.
But the fact that it's one to one, I don't know,
it feels like we're overlooking the Spacers team, where it's
(16:51):
like these are the exact type of dogs we love
to bet chat. So I'm just it's interesting to see
how much you're just fuck these guys. Okay, seem on
it that's the team I want to back. So I'm
just I'm shocked by your position.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
I guess.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
I'm just I'm a little bit swayed by looking at
this as and look, I was looking at this the
same way when the Celtics played the next and I
was dead wrong, which was if not for the Celtics
missing two or three three pointers in games won in
games in Game one, in Game two, then they're up
(17:25):
three to zero in that series, and we're not talking
about the Knicks as cardiac kids and finding ways to
come back from twenty points down in multiple games, because
the Celtics were clearly the better team. So the Thunder
are clearly the better team. They've got more talent, they've
(17:46):
got more aggressive, longer players on defense.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
I love the Pacers.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
We've been saying all postseason the Pacers floor is so
high because the basketball IQ for that team is so
so high. Nemhardnee Smith. Even Obi Topping when he comes in,
like is playing above and beyond. I think what anyone
thought he'd be playing at McConnell. You know, obviously Halliburton,
(18:13):
like they're all great, but okay, see has players that
are equally great and IQ perspective, and then better from
a talent perspective, everyone they're bringing off the bench is
better than who the Pacers are bringing off the bench.
And so I'm just thinking, Okay, the Thunder had one
collapse in a game in which they're not used to
(18:38):
playing in a high pressure situation like that in Game
one of the Finals, and that's all the Pacers do,
so it played to their strength.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Memoir, would you call that a collapse or they did?
They simply get outplayed by the Pacers end of that game.
Speaker 4 (18:50):
Because they had shots. It didn't feel like a collapse
where it's like, yeah, you know, they just hit shots
and then they got they just got tight, like okay,
so you just could not hit a shot even their
free throws.
Speaker 5 (19:00):
This guy wasn't that like the knixt Game one was
a collapse, right, Yes, this felt more like the Pacers
kept it just within range and then they did absolutely
tighten up like Jalen Williams wide open three pointer off
of Shay's split in the double miss. Shae's got that
pull up now, Shaye, I think just missed a shot.
Like I think Shake and Shade probably hit that shot,
you know, eight out of ten times on that mid
range pull pull up like his he that that pull
(19:21):
up from him is money. But I do think that
this is one of the things I talked about. This
is the okay See advantage in this series. Is White
chat talked about they're better, but they're better because they're
so dominant in the margins and what Indy's done in
this series, and it actually the same thing is true
for Game one. In Game two, okay S's not killing
(19:42):
him in the margins. Okay S killed him in Game two.
In shot variants, Pacers shot fourteen to forty from three.
They're still getting up forty three pointers against Oka See.
And in Game two with the with the whole season
on the line for oka See, Indiana missed miss shots,
good contests, good defense, but missed a ton of threes,
(20:04):
miss good opportunities. And okay see, on the other hand,
got twenty points from Alex Caruso, Like that's a very
tough thing for them to do, especially on the road.
This is where it gets interesting because I agree with Chad,
like they are better and it's about the margin and
whether Indy can shrink that margin from the power rating
standpoint to where it's within range. Because once it gets
(20:25):
within range, now this is about can you make shots?
And that's Indy. Like, Indy's the better shooting team. They've
been the better shooting team in the regular season, in
the playoffs, in half court and in the series. Like,
they are a better shooting team, but they're gotta get
it within range for them to be able to do that.
And the question is gonna be can Carlisle and the
Holmes environment open it up, because I will say it's
(20:47):
it's hard to blow out Okay see, if you win,
you win close. But OKAC has not been able to
blow teams out on the road, which is where they're comfortable.
That's where they're comfortable they can win these close games.
They won Game four in ever close environment really proves
something they have learned from this. This isn't like a
team where it's like, yeah, I don't know, man, if
it gets tight, I think they're gonna Like the Celtics,
(21:08):
I think were much more like that the last couple
of years. They won the title last year because nobody
could threaten them. Okay, see, it's like they got a chance.
But once it gets in the variance mode because of
the number, there's a lot of value on Indiana, it's
just like, can they hang on to be in that
position for the shop variants to come through for them?
Speaker 1 (21:26):
You mentioned uh Carlisle earlier in the show. He's like, Yeah,
we knew we weren't going to win that game, And
I feel like that happens more often in the NBA
than any other sport. Yep, they know going in like
they're gonna compete, But do you think there is actually
something the players pull back, the coaches change strategy, Like
(21:48):
what does that mean they know they're not going to
win the game, and why wouldn't they try to win
the game.
Speaker 5 (21:52):
So every series, he's got a rhythm and flow to it. Rix'
been in so many of these to understand it and
Now what's been amazing is a lot of the ways
to kind of see how much are they adjusting? And
what you do is you look at things like have
they changed their matchups, have they changed their rotation? Did
they tighten the rotation? Is one guy completely out? Do
they shift this around? How much have they shifted their
game plan going in from the previous game into this one.
(22:14):
And what's been fascinating is, like Zachlo said this on
Simmons podcast, and I completely agree with it. Like if
you talk to Indy folks, it's the same thing. They
like they game plan for the series to go long,
to have that kind of rhythm and flow, and great
coaches know you never want to be the first one
to adjust, and you want to hang onto those adjustments
as long as possible, because once you play that card,
(22:35):
that's it. You can't replay it because now they've seen it,
they've scripted it, they've got the counters built in for it.
You have to save them. And so I think the
thing in game two is they've stolen a lot of these.
They stole Game two versus the Nixon Cleveland without making
major adjustments, and that got them to be able to
win those series short versus having to go seven, even
(22:56):
when they have home court advantage, Like that's the real
difference here, Like even when they went six versus the Knicks,
it's mostly it's because Nick's had that Game five at home.
So with Carlisle, I think you go in and you say, look,
we're gonna compete. We're gonna like, these are the things
we want to clean up, but we're not gonna make
these changes that are gonna inherently screw with them because
(23:16):
you need the possessions where they're trying to figure them
out and adjust for it to be late enough in
the game or in the series for it to matter
in turning that result your way, because once you play it,
that's it. Most adjustments are gone by six and seven,
Like you're out of adjustments. It's just who makes shots.
And so with Carlisle, he's gonna hold back on some
(23:38):
of that to be able to make sure he plays
at the right time. I don't know if that comes
in game three or game four, you can look at
it and say, hey, we can't lose Game three. Then
they've retaken home court. They're gonna you know, and we're
now forced into having to win multiple games on the
road instead, do you save it for game three or
Game four? That to me is a question.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
See that, that's Simon why I'm hesitant to go all
in on. Okay, See, as good as their coach is,
Mark Degnel is a really good coach.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Carlisle. I mean, he's such a wily veteran.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
He's obviously won a title, He's now taken another team
to the finals. He's a brilliant not just basketball coach,
he's a brilliant NBA tactician. And so if Carlisle sees
something that makes him think, all right, this is going
to be a long series, and I'm willing to sacrifice
tactical decisions in game two because I'm going to need
(24:36):
them in say, game four, game five, that makes me
a little bit more inclined to at least think about
a serious price that is six or seven games.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
I'm telling these little things you love about the Pacers,
And that's why I was shocking you king On here.
I was like, this feels like the exact type of
team that Chad would be suckered into betting, the type
of dog where.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
It's like I don't want to be a sucker.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Well, I am I'm I'm gonna be one of those
people I bet them four to three. It's like it
would be hilarious if the Pacers do win four to
two now and I lose both bets. But everything about it,
I just was just like, oh my god. The Patriots team,
even in that blow loss. That's what gave me confidence
that game too. It's just like, there's no quit in
that team. There was no woe was me. It was
(25:19):
a still belief of we can get back from this game.
And I'm like, okay, okay's gonna fiel that up their
ass the entire series where even when anytime they have
any type of lead, they're gonna know there's no quit
in that other team. And you know, even like look
at our notes right here, the fact that the sports
books already have SGA and minus five to fifty for
finals MVP man More, is that not the most disrespectful
(25:42):
thing you've ever seen? If I was a Pacers that
would be on my bulletin board. It's one to one.
What are those odds by the sportsbooks right now? Has
he really been that dominant in this series? And that
do that much respect from the books minus five fifty
Finals MVP.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
That's crazy.
Speaker 5 (25:57):
Yeah, I mean it's also reflective of like there's a
minus five hundre it as well in the market, just
reflective of basically it's the series price because nobody else
is gonna be able to catch him. I've very I
always want to bet Jalen Williams in these spots because
of a skill set, but Shay's been able to to
kind of get there and he's gonna win if they
win the series. Shay's gonna win it because nobody else
is really going to have a case for it. If
(26:18):
Shae doesn't play well, they're not going to win. Like
there's just not They will not have enough offense if
Shaye Gillish Alexander does not play well, even if they
win a bunch of defensive or they're in a bunch
of defensive games. Yea, yeah, you know, Caruso is like
an interesting one after having playing game too, right, Like
that's a very good Like that's a fun long shot,
But you have to think about, like what are the
(26:38):
chances of them being able to win that many games
against this Pacers offense? Because the idea is like, well,
okayse he's better suited for a defensive slug fest because
they're the better defensive team. If it's a defensive slug
fest again, you're into one or two shots can win
you the game. Do you want Okac shooters or do
you want Indiana's Because I want Indiana's. And that's where
I think it gets interesting. I think Pascal Siakama is
(27:00):
the one that's actually like the really badly priced in
the market because when Siakam has twenty or more points,
the Pacers are seven and one straight up in ats
in the playoffs when he has when he has good games,
they win. So like, I'm a spoiler gonna be on
Siakam props for buckets in Game three, which I'm doing
after the show. So that's a look there.
Speaker 1 (27:19):
Well, look, when he has twenty or more points, it
also means Halliburton is getting the ball out of his
hands quickly and getting them into their offense quickly and
finding the mismatch so Hallimburton can post, so Siakam can
post someone up and hit that mid range jumper that
he's so good at hitting. One of my favorite things
(27:40):
in NBA Finals every year is when a guy starts
to shine and gets his flowers a little bit and
for me that that player has been Aaron NEI Smith,
Like his defense against Brunson, the way he is so
thoughtful in moving his body and getting into position, and
(28:00):
his ability to shoot the ball, Like he has become
a brilliant player. Like being in New England, remembering the
Celtics drafting him and him riding the pine uh and
then he disappeared to Indian. I'm like, oh, that's such
a bummer. Like I liked his story and I was
rooting for the kid. He's turned into a straight man
(28:21):
playing for the Pacers. I love this guy, love him,
talk about his development.
Speaker 5 (28:25):
He's phenomenal. I talked to him at Summer League after
his rookie season, and you can just tell like he
had the right mindset of what it was he was
going to work on and how much he was going
to focus. And he's had He had like two great
runs at Summer League to the point where I was like,
do you guys realize, like how good Aaron the Smith
is going to be? And then like the Celtics just
didn't play him for a team that played a lot
of guys. And he gets this opportunity in Indiana and
(28:45):
he is the prototypical wing that you want. You want
guys with size, physicality, length to be able to contest,
who can get over screens and can knock down the three.
And he's's been phenomenal for them, Like he's been a
great rebounder for them, he's been great steals. He's their
best on ball defender coming over those screens. He's the
reason why they were able to beat the next he
is the reason that they beat the New York Next.
(29:07):
He's number one A on my list for why they
got past them. His playing that series was absolutely tremendous,
and it's like a good reminder of some guys don't
pop immediately. Some guys don't walk into training camp and
you're like, Oh, that guy's gonna be awesome every single game,
even if he's not a superstar, Like, that guy's gonna
be great. Some guys that takes some time. But if
you're if you have the skill set and you can
(29:28):
build on it and you're patient, And this Pacers team
is such a great example of see a vision with guys,
of seeing what they could be rather than what they
can't be, And that to me has been like the
lesson of their team build and getting to the finals.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
All right, then I'm starting to feel more comfortable about
at least betting OKC and six or the Pacers in seven.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Like the way you've described.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
The Pacers and their intangibles, how could I not want
to root for this team, And.
Speaker 5 (30:00):
Like, look, I'll tell you I feel better about OKAC
and six than seven. If this gets to seven, that
is they're gonna They've kept saying like, well we've been
at we faced adversity. We were down two one on
the road versus Denver, and I'm like, yeah, well Denver
wasn't good. Like I've covered that team, they were not good.
And to Simon's point, if this gets to seven, I
(30:21):
am terrified for OKAC because like house money through the
roof for the Indiana Pacers, you made Game seven versus
the sixty eight win Thunder. They went on the road
last year and won a Game seven in Madison Square Garden.
Nobody thought they could win.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
This team is like the.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
Perfect squad to steal a Game seven on the road.
So I feel way better about OKAC and six than
I do about OKAC and seven. If it gets to
that point.
Speaker 2 (30:46):
Then that's what we're doing, Simon.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
We're going to six and the seven.
Speaker 1 (30:50):
We're doing six and seven. I like Pacers and seven,
I like thunder and six. I love it all right,
Matt Moore, host of Buckets, thanks for coming on the show.
Game three is at eight thirty Eastern Wednesday in Indianapolis.
The current line Indie plus five and a half total
two twenty eight and a half. Simon and I will
(31:11):
return with our next episode, Favorites Thursday on the Action
Number of YouTube page. Download us to Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your podse rate review, subscribe with with Spotstars,
say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Feedback is again until next time, Love you.
Speaker 5 (31:29):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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