August 14, 2025 • 38 mins
Can the Dallas Cowboys prove doubters wrong this season? Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss the NFC East on today's episode, with a long hard look at a Dallas team projected to miss the playoffs following an underwhelming offseason. Can they make a run to double-digit wins? Or are the champion Philadelphia Eagles too strong to overtakes? Are the Washington Commanders going to fall back to earth? Will Russell Wilson or a rookie QB be the answer in New York? All these questions answers and so much more in today's episode. #Volume
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast, part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad, Moment of the Action Network.
Our annual division by division NFL preview episodes continue. We're
coming down to the end as we head into week one.
To help me bring it all together, let me introduce
my co host, my companion, Mike and padre my BFF
(00:32):
professional Better Simon Hunter Ella, Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Chad, my guy, how are we doing, dude? Today?
Speaker 1 (00:39):
We're doing the NFC East. So I want to tell
you a little story which which you will love because
it involves one of your favorite coaches of all time.
I got someboddies here in West Herford where I live,
who are from the Philly region outside Philly, South Jersey, whatever,
and they are such which rabbit rabbid Eagles fans. They
(01:05):
get together during the season. They watch in this guy's basement.
They've already rewatched the Super Bowl victory from last year
in preparation for the upcoming season. And a couple of
weeks ago they called me because they were going to
watch the movie Invincible. As you know, I wrote the
book Invincible.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Chad Milman wrote a book.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
You're aware I wrote the book Invincible. About Vince Papali,
who became the oldest rookie in NFL history when he
made the Eagles off of an open tryout when Dick
Rameil became the head coach. It was the movie Invincible,
starting Mark Wahlberg and Elizabeth Banks. I appreciate you recognizing
it because when I said they asked me to go
to this party, when I said I was gonna come by,
(01:53):
my son was like, Invincible. Didn't didn't you have something
to do with that?
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Did you?
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Like, you're a fucking you got to explain them. That's
Philadelphia's goodwill hunting. Okay, you had a huge, huge deal
part of Philadelphia movie made.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
So so I went and I the night before, I
texted Vince and I told him I was going to
this Invincible party at my buddy's house. And by the way,
they had these uh like I don't know, like the
Philadelphia wah wah version of Hostess cupcakes and like little
(02:30):
cakes and stuff that you gotta rub the plastic to
make sure it doesn't stick to the icing. I forget
what they're called. But anyways, I told Vince I was
going to this, you know, movie party for Invincible, and
he texted me. He was in Jupiter, Florida. A video Jupiter,
Florida of Doug Peterson. This was literally that moment. He
(02:52):
was with Doug Peterson, who was making smash burgers, and
they were getting ready to watch the Hall of Fame game.
And I'm like, this is the fucking best man.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
It's a brotherhood Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Doug Peterson loving his life with Vince Papali in Florida.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
The well deserved, well deserved good man.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Today we're doing the NFCS brother Eagles, Super Bowl Champs,
Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, New York Football Giants, as Mike
Shiftman had asked us to do the NFC East faces,
the AFC West, and the NFC North. So even the
(03:34):
last place schedule because of the NFC North will not
necessarily be easy. Let's start with your Eagles brother division
(03:59):
minus one forty five conference plus three hundred Super Bowl
plus six fifty win total eleven and a half. I
got a lot of thoughts on this right now, but
you're in that ven diagram of super fandom and professional
better and I know Eagles fandom does not influence how
(04:22):
you feel about these numbers. I say that with all
seriousness so before I say anything, just give me your opinion.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Yeah, and it's this is this is peak NFC East cockiness, pride.
I think in the whole division where you know, Washington
thinks they're big and bad, Dallas thinks they got super
Bowl you know, aspirations, and I believe after our last
Super Bowl, we have the most Super Bowls and above
any division NFCS. So it's the Northeast bias is strong
(04:53):
right now with this division. And yeah, I look at it,
and you know, this Eagles team, I've I think even
talking at Eagles fans, they were losing their fucking minds.
The fact that I was telling people to bet Dallas
and I tried to explain them all, to explain to
people now just because I was saying Dallas is the
best valley does not mean I think Dallas is gonna
win this division. Obviously, this is the team that's gonna
(05:15):
win this division right the foot off the Eagles. And
at minus one forty five, it's that number because there's
so much love for Washington right now in the general
public and sports media, because the Jayden Daniels well deserved
what he did last year. But that's really what's pushing
this number down. And then we know the history of
this division just teams don't repeat. It's I don't know
we're going on year in nineteen or year twenty, but
(05:36):
there has not been a repeat champion this division that
long for good reasons. There's always something right. There was
always something either. Even when there's teams leading by like
four games, there's five games left, they've lost somehow all
those games, the other team will come up and win
it out of nowhere. So it's been really fluky. But
I think it's finally bound to happen. Chat, I think
I can say with confidence that this Eagles team will
(06:00):
be the one that can break that streak. And it's
just because of this defense. And as much as we
love and respect we give this Eagles offense deserved well deserved.
To win your division consistently, you need to have a
really good defensive back that offense. Because we've talked with
like other professional betters, defense to a lot of people
is considered very consistent from year to year, and that
(06:22):
is why these defensive coordinators are so important. I mean, Fangs,
he's changed the whole n offl His defensive scheme has
changed everything in this league where the deep balls for
the most part, died for most most teams, right because
of this type of Cover two defense he's brought in
where you know he runs cover two, cover three. I
mean that super Bowl they just won. I think if
you watch most of it, they ran't Cover four against
(06:43):
Mahomes most of that game and it worked. Like It's
just it's crazy how dropping these safeties back and keeping
everything underneath and makes these quarterbacks eventually make a mistake,
Like you only can be patient for so long, especially
if you're trailing. So this Eagles team, their bigginest weakness
was they lost Milton Williams, Josh Sweat. Like when I
(07:05):
when I hear people say that stuff, I laugh. I
think Eagles fans laugh because no one was saying those
names until that Super Bowl. No no fan outside of
Philly knew about those guys except you know, until that
Super Bowl happened. So, yeah, does it matter they lost
those guys, of course, But to me, being not only
an Eagles fan, but someone that follows that team through betting,
(07:27):
their best d lineman was Brendan Graham through you know,
eight weeks last season, Like this is a man that
retired after the season. So that's let you know, how
that d N group they were just all really solid.
There was no superstar of that group. So losing those
two guys it's a big deal. But for this team,
it's not that big of a deal, and they're real
The game changer for them has been obviously Jalen Carter,
(07:49):
but it's the linebackers and the cornerbacks. Like Howie, we
had one of the worst secondaries in football. We lost
seven straight games, and he went out and took you know,
are really the best corner of football in my opinion,
the Round and then took a guy that you know,
people now know his name, Cooper Gene because of that
Super Bowl. So you know, when Quinn and Mitchell and
Cooper Gene could come in and change a whole organization
in one year, there's gonna be carryover. So that was
(08:12):
their first year. They're only gonna get better. So I
would say most Eagles fans you talked to are sticking
their chests out. They're very confident. They believe. I I
want to hate on them, I want to push him down,
but I just can't find a weakness on this team.
And even saw I think yesterday Landon Dickerson got hurt
here at his knee, which is there, you know, all
pro guard. That's a huge deal for almost any team
(08:34):
to lose your all pro guard. He might I don't
know what the injury is yet. They just said it's
a knee. Injuries are on his knee. If he's out
for the season, that that is a big deal. But
with Jeff Stallin another cog in the machine, you expect
the next guy to step into that guard position won't
be that big of a downgrade. So yeah, it's if
they're healthy. I mean, I remember I said at this
point last year, I think I had I think I
(08:57):
had the forty nine ers at one last year at
this point, then line the Eagles and then the Chiefs
and people were killing me and I get it, like
they were like, you're being a home or no way
of the Eagles last year a top three team, and
then we had into the playoffs last year, the Eagles
were my best bet. It was we did an article
for Action Network and it was my best bet super bet.
They were eleven to one. The Eagles a super team.
(09:18):
People call them a super team. They were eleven to
one in January head into the playoffs, you could have
got them a super team, and it's it's just one
of the things how people just moved the goalpost, right,
they moved the goalpost, So this is of course they won.
They had the best defense, they had the best offense,
blah blah blah. It's like, well, why were they eleven
to one? So I think the whole public's come around
(09:39):
now on this team. That yeah, divisionalides value is there?
Win total? I would take it. I have them at
thirteen wins eleven and a half. That's a nice win total.
Conference in Super Bowl We've already talked about it. There's
no value there. Rather do Eagles with the matchups because
them to win this conference at three to one, they
need so many things to break their way once again
like it did last year, right, Like they just need
(10:00):
to be healthy and that is the hardest part in football.
So yeah, you can tell I'm really excited and fired
up for this team because we haven't had a repeat
champion like we had two. The last time we've had
a team win two Super Bowls and the next team
went two Super Bowls was I believe Pittsburgh and Miami
in the seventies. So that's how long it's been the NFL,
I think over fifty years now since we've had back
(10:21):
to back champs where they've gone back to back, back
to back. So as an Eagles fan, I'm really excited,
But as a better it's like this is the dream team.
It was the same thing as last year. Chad knows.
I love betting teams based on offensive lines and defensive
lines in their schemes, and this is just another team
that because how he's drafted so well, there's no glaring weakness,
so I have no fear of the curse of never
(10:42):
went the same team repeating this division. I think this
is the exact team type of team you need to
break that curse, which is a team that's not even
talking about last year Super Bowl. They've totally moved on
totally one direction. It all starts with Jalen Hurts. So yeah,
very very confident in this divisional bet. This is probably
my top three of my highest bet right now. It
opened at one fifty deck you dropped at some books
(11:03):
to one for five. So people are our betten Washington,
they are Betton Dallas, and they're moving this number. So
I'm hoping, I'm hoping doesn't get above one fifty Again,
I think this is this is the right price for
me and the value wise betten the Seagulls team.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
How we did how we during the draft, first five
picks on defense across the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary.
Three of the next four picks on the offensive line.
I think he knew they needed more offensive line depth.
They lost Makai Becton from that Super Bowl offensive line,
(11:39):
like you just mentioned Dickerson. We don't know what the
injury is, but Howie doesn't leave the cover bear in
the areas where he needs it most filled, where we love,
which is defensive line offensive line. I'm not even that
worried about them losing Kellen Moore the offensive coordinator because
to me, that's one of the reasons they sort of
(12:00):
fell off a cliff the year after winning the Super
Bowl is they did not get the coordinators right, both
offensively or defensively.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
They were off right.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
You mentioned Vic Fangio came in, and like, the good
thing about Fangio is a he's a brilliant defensive coordinator
who's proven it again and again and again, including last year.
He's not going to leave to go be a head coach.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Somewhere.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Meanwhile, the Eagles, they didn't go out and look for
a new offensive coordinator. They basically just promoted a guy
who's been on staff. Some of the disconnect that Jalen
had in adapting to new offensive coordinators the year after
winning the Super Bowl, I don't think will be a
problem this year, even though it's like it's his fifth
offensive coordinator in five years.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Losing Kellen Moore, it's it was a big deal, but
it's not when I really broke this team down where
they struggled. He wasn't even that big of a game teacher.
The Eagles were second and least points scored in the
first two quarters of games up until week thirteen, like
and then we kept betting against him in the First
War because they could not score for the life of them.
I told you what eventually happened was Jalen Hurts after
that Bio week, he went to them and just said,
(13:08):
we don't need to be a passing team. We should
be able to run first team, like we have the
ultimate cheat code in Saquon Barkley. And this upcoming season,
I think things might change where they might push the
ball a little bit more downfield. If possible, but I
look at it as don't change it. If it ain't broke,
don't fix it, like you know what you are, like,
keep feeding the beast to Sayquan was right him as
(13:28):
long as you can, as long as he's healthy. So yeah,
I think you nailed a chat where it's like usually
i'd be with some teams or it's like, well, you know,
this isn't like losing Ben Johnson. They're losing to a
guy who I think got propped up by the pieces
around him. He wasn't so much this offensive genius.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Quick heads up anybody playing fantasy football this season, the
Ultimate twenty twenty five draft kit is he your courtesy
of our Fantasy Labs team. This means our award winning
team of Sean Crounner and Chris Raybound have their rankings,
tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them,
you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription, and right now new
subscribers can get can use code flex twenty for twenty
(14:06):
dollars off at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex. Let
Sean and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code
flex twenty for twenty dollars off at Fantasy Labs dot
Com slash flex the Washington Commanders. You mentioned Jaden Daniels
Division plus two, twenty five Conference plus eight fifty Super
(14:29):
Bowl twenty to one win total nine and a half.
It's very easy to say fade the Commanders, but it's
the right thing to do. I think Jaden Daniels masks
everything that is wrong with this team. The O line
not very good. Does Laramie Tunsel make them that much better?
(14:51):
Is he on the other side of being peak? Terry
McLaurin holding out? Does Deebo Samuel on the other side
of peak make this team much better? In both cases
with Tunsel and Samuel, I think we're getting big time
guys whose productivity is a year or two behind them.
So again, they're going to be over reliant on Daniel's
(15:14):
playmaking ability. He's not just in fields right. He's not
an irresponsible scrambler. He's not Anthony Richardson. He doesn't make
himself vulnerable. There's no reason to think that what he
did last season performance wise was a fluke in terms
of his ability to keep the chains moving and find
(15:34):
success on fourth downs. But there's going to be some regression.
They literally converted nearly every first down, I would go
under nine and a half here. This would be sort
of the bet that I would peg in this division.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
Yeah, and I have him the seven and a half ones,
So there are way way way over nine and a half.
Is I couldn't believe when I saw that open, and
I know people would be like, well, you're being a
Washington hater, But it's just I think Chad's nailing a
little bit of how fluky last year was in many ways,
and they're being sucked into you know, if Baker doesn't
(16:14):
turn that ball over, they win that game, right, that
playoff game, what's their win total if they don't have
that run, right, it's probably eight and a half because
of how good they were last year, you know, so
you're already getting a bad like you're already betting on over.
If you're betting this with a fake win like that,
they're getting a bump in the books because of the
(16:36):
general public's view of this. So I can't believe people
are being sucked into this team where it's just so
much about their season last year was fluky, like they
I think they beat maybe it was two winning teams.
I know it was one team with a winning record
in the regular season, and it was the Eagles with
Kenny Pickett. Like I'm trying to think of any other
(16:56):
team they'd beat with a winning record. I can't think
of one. So this is just the team that beat
up on bad teams and you know, respect to them,
like good coaching. You know, we talked about like that
was the greatest rookie season we've ever seen, and Daniels
deserves that respect. So I get why the public is
loving him while the media loves him, and you know,
people are already putting him as a top five quarterback and
(17:18):
like everyone's just drinking the cool are right now. And
it's just natural for that because we've never seen anything
like it, Like we never saw a rookies come in
an offense like he did last year and take them
to the NFC Championship game. Was incredible. So I get
from their standpoint why they're so high in the sky.
But you know, like we're talking about here, when you
dive into it, you see how fluky last year it was,
and then you look at this team here what they've
(17:38):
added to it. It feels like they just added a
bunch of old guys, Like yeah, adding Von Miller is
great because he's a leader and there's some things he
can do, but that's not a game changing piece. Debo.
I like the move because you're going down and you're
trying to make your team better. But haven't we seen
what Debo has become? Right, He's just not the same
type of player as he was before, and his aggressive
(17:59):
style it seems like a it adds to him getting
hurt more often than not. So there's just so many
questions here. And then the number one thing that really
is pissing me off is this whole McLaurin thing. I
don't get it. I don't get how these organizations, with
these billionaire billion dollar owners like Josh Harris to just
pay this man's money like what he Terry went through
the dark days of Washington. He's been there through all
(18:21):
the shit and you never heard a word from him,
and every year he would go out and put out
another thousand yard season and finally you get a quarterback
perfect for him, and you want to be tight about it.
I just I hate it. I hated so much for
this Washington team because this is the window, like you
got Daniels on this cheap money, pay pay mclauren. If
(18:44):
you're worried about his age because I don't know if
he's thirty one or thirty, give back a three year
deal there. Just make it all guarantee, like he deserves that,
all that money and then so he's just he doesn't
get hurt. He always plays hard, and I hate this
distracted from them. So yeah, someone that likes their under
this is all good. This is all good things like
this drama, all field stuff. So yeah, to me, commandage
(19:05):
right now, we haven't a plus plus two hundred and
twenty five to win this division. I got them at
plus four hundred. I actually have Dallas at plus three hundred,
So I am way off compared to with the books
in the general public thing of this division, where I
think Dallas is clearly the second best team miss division.
The general public and some professional betters really believe this
(19:27):
Washington team. So I think it's a big miss and
I think we're on the same page. We expect a
lot of regression from Jane Daniels, but it's really the schedule,
Like their schedule was just so much harder than it
was last year. I just I can't see a ward
where they get the ten wins. It just seems like
it's going to be impossible with how hard the schedule was,
how much luck they need to break their way.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because when
I was taking a stand on this being my favorite
bet that they're under, I didn't know your rankings and
ratings had them at seven in and a half, which
two games, but you yeah, that's like one of the
biggest deltas we have here. So I'm feeling really good.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
It's not knocking the talent of the team. I just
think it's just the schedule so tough, Like it's just
not like it was last year they had kind of.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
They gotta they gotta play the teams in their division.
The Cowboys will be better. Yeah, they gotta play. They
gotta play. They gotta play the Cowboys twice. They got
to play the Eagles twice. They got to play the Chiefs,
they got to play the Vikings, they got to play
the Packers, they got to play the Lions.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Like it is not. Yeah, it's not. It's tough. So
that's that's my hesitation with them. People Like I get
why people are drinking the cool of that coming in,
but it's just it's the it's too Chad started at
the top of the show with it's who these who.
This conference plays outside their division, and with the way
their schedule breaks, it's just really tough for a young
team like this.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Dallas Cowboys six to one to win the Division, plus
six hundred Conference twenty five to one, Super Bowl fifty
to one win total, a paltry seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (21:12):
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart
of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
So listen. You and I have talked about the Cowboys
a lot this offseason. We've liked their value in the
division all off season long. I bet them on the
money line to beat the Eagles in Week one. I
bet them at plus seven to beat the Eagles in
Week one, and before the Micah Parsons drama, this was
(21:47):
all yes, yes, yes, yes yes, And like you have
been very influential in reminding me how good Dak can
be and that he is coming back this year, so
we shouldn't be down on this team. And I kept
(22:08):
remembering that the defensive line last year was playing second
and third stringers. For a large part of the year,
and that Micah Parsons is hopefully when I was making
these plays, going to be back. Jerry Jones is fucking
this shit up you just talked about like Josh Harris Pey,
Terry McLaurin. This is changing the dynamic for me all
(22:33):
of a sudden. Micah Parsons, even if he plays, might
not be in shape. The offensive line keeps losing starters
to injury. Dak is a thirty one year old who's
clearly got creaky wheels, so he won't be as mobile
as he has been. George Pickens could be a temper
tantrum away from ruining Brian Schottenheimer's rookie season. I'm losing
(22:54):
all my enthusiasm.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Simon good we don't want you on this boat. So
it's no one likes this team. That's what's been so fun.
Like I remember when we did our live show, and
I feel like it was years ago. It is whatever
March or April, and I gave it. I was my
best bet the live show and it was it was
met by son of Booze and I am with you people.
We all hate Dallas, Dallas, you know, being the only
(23:18):
team the NFC not to make the NFC Championship game
in the last thirty years. It warms my cold cold heart.
I love it like it's it's the best thing ever.
Like that meme of you know, Eagles watching their Super
Bowl reel on a DVD or on YouTube and Cowboys
fans plugging in the VHS tape to watch their Super
Bowl reel. I love it. I drink it up, and
(23:41):
you know I hate that. I have to be the guy,
the Gifford you want to get in here. Let's hear
it concisely.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
I don't think they're good enough anywhere offense, defense, but
I think there's enough there to get to eight. It's
probably looking like a classic Dallas Cowboys first round playoff
exit team, but that that's eight nine wins.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
I just don't want upside.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
Markets don't take good enough anywhere around the ball.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
So and again I talked to a lot of Cowboys
fans because shockingly, people wouldn't believe if you're not from Philadelphia,
we have a shocking amount of Cowboys fans in this area.
Like when I go to a sports book even the offseason,
there's about a thirty percent chance I will see a
Dallas cowboy hat or jersey in the sports book at
any given time they are here and talking to them,
(24:32):
this is exactly the team. This is what you want.
They have no confidence. If you talk to a Cowboys
fan last year, holy shit, where they shit on this
Eagles team talking about how they were gonna run away
with this division, how they're the best. Now they're all out.
They do not like or trust this team. They're not
that confident. And I'm the other way where it's like,
this is the same Dallas team that's probably gonna get
the twelve wins or eleven wins. This is what they do.
(24:55):
And people can shoot on Dak for what he does
in the playoffs. I agree, and and we're not talking
about that. We're talking about regular season right now. I'm
talking about win totals. And this was when I hammered
and I was pissed my model. I was like, oh,
my model will have this at ten. It doesn't it
as an eight and a half because they do have
a tough schedule. That's cool, it's a game above. So
(25:15):
it's like, because I already invested really heavily before I
really ran and dove into it, because when it first opened.
I couldn't believe it. And then we saw when the
schedule came out, the books were kind of ahead of it, right,
Them having four Thursday games, it's criminal, like them playing
the Chiefs on a short week. That's brutal. But hear
me out here, Chad, let me paint this Dallas Cowboys
stealing this division pitcher and how they can get to
(25:37):
twelve wins. They start with the Eagles, say they steal
that game opening ing Doc always plays well against the Eagles,
and this is the perfect time to steal this type
of game, Like, no one's gonna be counted on them.
Everyone's out on them. I think they're still a seven
point dog. Dak Prescott's a seven point dog against the Eagles.
It's crazy. If they steal that game, then beat the Giants,
then beat Chicago, that's a three and oh start, that's
(26:00):
not that crazy. Then beating the Giants or Chicago. Okay,
Green Bay is their kryptonite, but that's at home. Okay,
I'll say they lose that game, then they go Jets,
Carolina Washington. They're Washington's daddy. So like to me, you're
looking at a team right here, they'd be sitting at
six and one head into Denver, so like it's all
laid out for me in my opinion of like, if
(26:21):
they can get out to a hot start, if they
can go seven and two headed into their bye week,
head into Vegas, it's all there because they literally go Vegas,
then they get affillate at home. Like it it lines
up for them early in the year that they could
if they can come out and play well, they can
easily see this division. I think people are two down
on DAK and this offense where Pickens with CD, I
(26:42):
don't think people wrap their heads around how Delhi vicmbo
this is going through big like Seawanenheimer could be a
full on fucking idiot, and it's gonna work. On offense.
I'm telling you it's gonna work because exactly what DAK
likes to do, which is run crow routes or slants
across the middle. Pickens is deadly, especially about fades too,
which is really deadly. And CD has never had that.
CDs always live with two or three shell cover. Now
(27:05):
you're going to get him maybe single cover sometimes it's
usually it's probably gonna still be double. But even that
he can beat the doubles. So I am just so
so so happy that this number is still plus six
hundred because I gave it U plus seven hundred, and
I thought for sure this would be plus five hundred,
plus four hundred by now. Still no one's drinking the
cool and everyone just hates this Dallas team. So yeah,
(27:26):
this even though I love the Eagles, I've I've hyped
it up. This is clearly my favorite value wised divisional
bet plus six hundred. It's amazing, amazing odds where I'm
telling you people, they are not that much worse than
the Eagles. I have him a plus three hundred for
this division and for a win total again, my model
has an eight and a half. I think this is
easily a ten win team, nine win team, so seven
(27:46):
and a half. It's one of my favorite totals. I've
been betting it for three months now. It's just it's
lined up for this team. I just even even with
the Parsons drama, I agree with you, this is what
Jerry does like. Jerry just does this type of thing.
So I'm with you. I wish it wasn't happen in
this way and it could get ugly quick, but as
we sit here right now, what is it, August twelfth,
August eleventh. I'm confident that if they get it done
(28:07):
the next week or two, that's plenty of time. Two
three weeks for Parsons to get into game shape before
this Eagles game. I think that's plenty of time. Where
he's been working out, but like you said, he's been
doing zero contact, which is an issue, like you need
to have contact in the preseason to get ready for
the upcoming season. So I'm with that's that's the only
reason I'm not all in this team. I think the
Eagles are still going to seal this win this division.
It's just it's it's the Jerry Jones effect. He just
(28:29):
there's so much extra bullshit that these other teams don't
have to deal with when you have Jerry Jones as
your owner.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
Consistency is a cowboy trade bark underscored by winning seasons,
division titles, and world championship.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
So, as has been the theme for the past couple
of shows, we're generally on the same side. I feel
like the things that you're discounting is not mattering. Specifically,
the Micah Parson stuff. He kind of glossed over offensive
line because I do think that offensive line injuries are
piling up for them already, and they were already having
(29:07):
to figure out what to do with an offensive line
that matters with a quarterback who's.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
Negative offensive line brother in like three four years, Like
you're thinking.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
Of what's getting hurt.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
Yeah, but again he's every year they went twelve games,
Like last year was the anomaly he got hurt. I
think he was three and five when he got hurt,
like he was not playing well. I agree with you,
but like again, people have just moved too quick. Like
you didn't even have Dak in your top ten. You
you're out on me. I don't even you had him
your top fifteen. So that's what I mean. People are
just totally out on Dak in the team. Listen, you
(29:42):
didn't mention his name. You mentioned to his name rather
than mentioned that is well, I'm not letting you.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
That is revisionist history. I had Dak at thirteen.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Yeah bullshit. So that's what I mean. It's just they
just line up as this team where people don't like
their head coach, they're all negative about it, and end
of the year they're going to have some how it
went some way, somehow they're gonna have double digit wins
and it's just the talent level is that high. I
think they just have so much talent. And my only
fear right now for this team is what you just
(30:10):
talked about the Parsons with that d line. If it's
a distraction, if they didn't, you know, add the right pieces,
they still can't stop the run. Yeah, their defense could
be atrocious, but that offense, man like Dak has the
ultimate weapons. And your question about their offensive line, they've
been drafting offensive linemen and they've got some guys in
there that I think, do you project out to be
pretty good? So that's why I'm not as worried about
(30:31):
them as you are. Where it's like, you know, if
you want to talk about bad offensive lines, I could
spend a half hour in Miami's offensive line. So it's
like you got to give and take with you certain
teams about I'm with you. There are some injuries, but yeah,
it's I think that with the weapons they have in Dallas,
I just I don't get why Washington's the second favorite
team this division. I just think it should be Dallas again.
(30:54):
As much of them going to Dallas here, still people
don't forget Eagles to win this division, still probably the
best bet at minus one four forty five.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
New York Football Giants thirty to one to win the division,
seventy five to one to win the conference, two hundred
to one to win the Super Bowl win total five
and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
The New York Giants' glory years are a distant memory
for their long suffering followers who have endured through the
worst of time. But today anticipation has replaced frustration.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
I've been grilling Ai constantly the last couple of weeks
about the advanced metrics. The best correlate to covering.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
Oh that poor Ai.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
Spread no matter anyway I slice it. Defense comes up,
and we talked about this with the Jets, right like
defense success rate, defensive EPA pressure rate. If the Giants
have Dexter Lawrence healthy in the middle of the defensive line,
they can be a very disruptive force. When they were
(31:56):
when he was healthy last year top ten and pressure
rate because as he commands so much attention, it made
life so much easier for Caveon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns.
Now they have Abdua Carter. So I was leaning to
the over and I think a lot of it is
similar to what you were saying about the Jets, Like
(32:20):
they have the scheme and they have the defense that
I think can be really impactful, and I kind of
have to believe that their quarterback, probably Russell Wilson, can
be competent enough to allow them to steal a couple
of games. Because they got the Commanders, Cowboys Chiefs to start.
(32:43):
Not easy, but then they got the Saints in Week four.
Then it gets hard again. Eagles Broncos, Eagles Niners. But
this defense makes it hard for me to commit it.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
No, don't, don't overthink it. You just nailed it there.
They're dead. They are dead. They're in an impossible defense
and a possible division without a quarterback, like it's there.
When I first saw their schedule, I thought it was
a glitch. I was like, wait, this is the last
place schedule. Who's the last place teams they play like
it's the Saints. That's the one gift they get from
(33:22):
becoming in last place. It's brutal. Their schedule is brutal.
There is no it feels like there's no two weeks
of just relief, like they're they're the relief this year
for all all these different teams like this is just yeah,
their defensive line might be all right, and Russell Wilson,
sure he could steal a game, like Neighbors is an
incredible receiver. We've seen, you know, their head coach win
(33:43):
games with a guy that you know shouldn't even be
in the league. Like it's they they do have good
coaching and they do have talent across the defense. I'm
with you, I want to get into it, but you know,
Andrew Thomas, their best offensive line is already hurt. Like
that's that's a nightmare. Me and you talked about last year.
We didn't put a single dollar on them he went
down because we were just like, they're never whoever's quarterback
there is just gonna die. And that's what happened in
(34:05):
the season. So it's it sucks. We're like people obviously
have seen a pattern here. I love betting the worst
teams in divisions because it's always you always gonna lie
to yourself in a lot and and kind of think
to yourself, they can find six wins, like you know,
there's there's ways to get there. But with this team,
despite what Chad said, which is true, like they have
probably one of the best two lines in all football.
(34:28):
They might have one of the worst secondaries in all football.
They might have one of the worst offensive lines of football.
They don't have a running back. Like, what the hell
is That Dude's name is Cam Skattaboo. He's fun. I
love watching his college highlights. That dude looks like he
runs a five, like a five point oh forty like
he I don't know if he's gonna be the game changer.
They need it running back. And you know, as much
(34:49):
as we love neighbors, teams were happy to let neighbors
be the only guy to beat them. Right last year
we saw that where they would get up by twenty
and you can stop doubling Neighbors get his junk time yards.
So it's it's just a team where I can't find
five wins, let alone four wins. They just they screamed
to be top of the draft type of team. And
(35:10):
if I was them, I would just start dart from
get go. Like to me, he had one throw in
the preseason. That's all I needed to see where it's like, Okay,
this kid's raw. He might not know how it takes
snaps from under center and come in an offense, but
let's just get him out there and let the bullets fly.
Let him just get through it, because if he can
show something, then you keep him. If not, you're gonna
once again have a top two, top three draft pick.
(35:32):
Like this, there's just no way this team is outside
that draft zone. So it's it's dark days right now
for Giants fans, Like, it's just you're in a division
now with Jane Daniels, Dak, and Jalen Hurts, which I mean,
I think Chad's come around on Dak a little, but
he probably would say Dak's close to a top ten quarterback.
That's brutal. You're in a division with three potential top
ten quarterbacks. You're so far behind the eight ball. So yeah,
(35:56):
I did. I wanted to get there with you Giants
fans and find wins for you guys. If I look
at it, I'm just like, if they got the three
wins this year, that to me would be a good
season for this Giants team. That's how brutal of the
schedule is, and that's how bad their team is when
I plug them into my model. So I gotta have
four wins if you get over three tons of respect
to this team. But yeah, five and a half. I'll
(36:18):
take that under every time if it's a game and
a half. So yeah, there it should be. They're two
hundred and one to win the super Bowl. That that
that sounds right. They are that bad nightmare schedule. Yeah,
Like if you're a season ticket a order, I would
take the year off from a Giants fan like this.
Speaker 1 (36:34):
I was shocked when I went through the schedule and
I looked at it. I'm like, this is fucking insane.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
How was this the last play schedule?
Speaker 1 (36:42):
I couldn't How do they do this to somebody? Yeah,
the scriptwriters did not get the memo that you gotta
make one of the marquee teams in the biggest city
have a little bit of a fighting chance.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's it's they're just again, they're in a really brutal vision.
Our outside division games this year are just awful. Like
it's just like you said, playing playing the AFC North,
or yeah, it's AFC North playing the AFC West. It
doesn't get much worse.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
Favorite division bet for you it's the Eagles minus one
forty five and then maybe a little taste of the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
It that's Cowboy's definitely best value for long shot.
Speaker 1 (37:21):
Six to one. I like the Commanders under nine and
a half total wins. The Favorites will return with our
next episode Tuesday and the Action Network You two page
where we cover the NFC North with a very special
guest interview. Downloads from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get
(37:43):
your pods, Rate, review, subscribed, leave us five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is a gift Until next time.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
I Love you.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
Action Network reminds you please gamble and responsibly. If you
or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help
is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast, part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad, Moment of the Action Network.
Our annual division by division NFL preview episodes continue. We're
coming down to the end as we head into week one.
To help me bring it all together, let me introduce
my co host, my companion, Mike and padre my BFF
(00:32):
professional Better Simon Hunter Ella, Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Chad, my guy, how are we doing, dude? Today?
Speaker 1 (00:39):
We're doing the NFC East. So I want to tell
you a little story which which you will love because
it involves one of your favorite coaches of all time.
I got someboddies here in West Herford where I live,
who are from the Philly region outside Philly, South Jersey, whatever,
and they are such which rabbit rabbid Eagles fans. They
(01:05):
get together during the season. They watch in this guy's basement.
They've already rewatched the Super Bowl victory from last year
in preparation for the upcoming season. And a couple of
weeks ago they called me because they were going to
watch the movie Invincible. As you know, I wrote the
book Invincible.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Chad Milman wrote a book.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
You're aware I wrote the book Invincible. About Vince Papali,
who became the oldest rookie in NFL history when he
made the Eagles off of an open tryout when Dick
Rameil became the head coach. It was the movie Invincible,
starting Mark Wahlberg and Elizabeth Banks. I appreciate you recognizing
it because when I said they asked me to go
to this party, when I said I was gonna come by,
(01:53):
my son was like, Invincible. Didn't didn't you have something
to do with that?
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Did you?
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Like, you're a fucking you got to explain them. That's
Philadelphia's goodwill hunting. Okay, you had a huge, huge deal
part of Philadelphia movie made.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
So so I went and I the night before, I
texted Vince and I told him I was going to
this Invincible party at my buddy's house. And by the way,
they had these uh like I don't know, like the
Philadelphia wah wah version of Hostess cupcakes and like little
(02:30):
cakes and stuff that you gotta rub the plastic to
make sure it doesn't stick to the icing. I forget
what they're called. But anyways, I told Vince I was
going to this, you know, movie party for Invincible, and
he texted me. He was in Jupiter, Florida. A video Jupiter,
Florida of Doug Peterson. This was literally that moment. He
(02:52):
was with Doug Peterson, who was making smash burgers, and
they were getting ready to watch the Hall of Fame game.
And I'm like, this is the fucking best man.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
It's a brotherhood Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Doug Peterson loving his life with Vince Papali in Florida.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
The well deserved, well deserved good man.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Today we're doing the NFCS brother Eagles, Super Bowl Champs,
Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, New York Football Giants, as Mike
Shiftman had asked us to do the NFC East faces,
the AFC West, and the NFC North. So even the
(03:34):
last place schedule because of the NFC North will not
necessarily be easy. Let's start with your Eagles brother division
(03:59):
minus one forty five conference plus three hundred Super Bowl
plus six fifty win total eleven and a half. I
got a lot of thoughts on this right now, but
you're in that ven diagram of super fandom and professional
better and I know Eagles fandom does not influence how
(04:22):
you feel about these numbers. I say that with all
seriousness so before I say anything, just give me your opinion.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Yeah, and it's this is this is peak NFC East cockiness, pride.
I think in the whole division where you know, Washington
thinks they're big and bad, Dallas thinks they got super
Bowl you know, aspirations, and I believe after our last
Super Bowl, we have the most Super Bowls and above
any division NFCS. So it's the Northeast bias is strong
(04:53):
right now with this division. And yeah, I look at it,
and you know, this Eagles team, I've I think even
talking at Eagles fans, they were losing their fucking minds.
The fact that I was telling people to bet Dallas
and I tried to explain them all, to explain to
people now just because I was saying Dallas is the
best valley does not mean I think Dallas is gonna
win this division. Obviously, this is the team that's gonna
(05:15):
win this division right the foot off the Eagles. And
at minus one forty five, it's that number because there's
so much love for Washington right now in the general
public and sports media, because the Jayden Daniels well deserved
what he did last year. But that's really what's pushing
this number down. And then we know the history of
this division just teams don't repeat. It's I don't know
we're going on year in nineteen or year twenty, but
(05:36):
there has not been a repeat champion this division that
long for good reasons. There's always something right. There was
always something either. Even when there's teams leading by like
four games, there's five games left, they've lost somehow all
those games, the other team will come up and win
it out of nowhere. So it's been really fluky. But
I think it's finally bound to happen. Chat, I think
I can say with confidence that this Eagles team will
(06:00):
be the one that can break that streak. And it's
just because of this defense. And as much as we
love and respect we give this Eagles offense deserved well deserved.
To win your division consistently, you need to have a
really good defensive back that offense. Because we've talked with
like other professional betters, defense to a lot of people
is considered very consistent from year to year, and that
(06:22):
is why these defensive coordinators are so important. I mean, Fangs,
he's changed the whole n offl His defensive scheme has
changed everything in this league where the deep balls for
the most part, died for most most teams, right because
of this type of Cover two defense he's brought in
where you know he runs cover two, cover three. I
mean that super Bowl they just won. I think if
you watch most of it, they ran't Cover four against
(06:43):
Mahomes most of that game and it worked. Like It's
just it's crazy how dropping these safeties back and keeping
everything underneath and makes these quarterbacks eventually make a mistake,
Like you only can be patient for so long, especially
if you're trailing. So this Eagles team, their bigginest weakness
was they lost Milton Williams, Josh Sweat. Like when I
(07:05):
when I hear people say that stuff, I laugh. I
think Eagles fans laugh because no one was saying those
names until that Super Bowl. No no fan outside of
Philly knew about those guys except you know, until that
Super Bowl happened. So, yeah, does it matter they lost
those guys, of course, But to me, being not only
an Eagles fan, but someone that follows that team through betting,
(07:27):
their best d lineman was Brendan Graham through you know,
eight weeks last season, Like this is a man that
retired after the season. So that's let you know, how
that d N group they were just all really solid.
There was no superstar of that group. So losing those
two guys it's a big deal. But for this team,
it's not that big of a deal, and they're real
The game changer for them has been obviously Jalen Carter,
(07:49):
but it's the linebackers and the cornerbacks. Like Howie, we
had one of the worst secondaries in football. We lost
seven straight games, and he went out and took you know,
are really the best corner of football in my opinion,
the Round and then took a guy that you know,
people now know his name, Cooper Gene because of that
Super Bowl. So you know, when Quinn and Mitchell and
Cooper Gene could come in and change a whole organization
in one year, there's gonna be carryover. So that was
(08:12):
their first year. They're only gonna get better. So I
would say most Eagles fans you talked to are sticking
their chests out. They're very confident. They believe. I I
want to hate on them, I want to push him down,
but I just can't find a weakness on this team.
And even saw I think yesterday Landon Dickerson got hurt
here at his knee, which is there, you know, all
pro guard. That's a huge deal for almost any team
(08:34):
to lose your all pro guard. He might I don't
know what the injury is yet. They just said it's
a knee. Injuries are on his knee. If he's out
for the season, that that is a big deal. But
with Jeff Stallin another cog in the machine, you expect
the next guy to step into that guard position won't
be that big of a downgrade. So yeah, it's if
they're healthy. I mean, I remember I said at this
point last year, I think I had I think I
(08:57):
had the forty nine ers at one last year at
this point, then line the Eagles and then the Chiefs
and people were killing me and I get it, like
they were like, you're being a home or no way
of the Eagles last year a top three team, and
then we had into the playoffs last year, the Eagles
were my best bet. It was we did an article
for Action Network and it was my best bet super bet.
They were eleven to one. The Eagles a super team.
(09:18):
People call them a super team. They were eleven to
one in January head into the playoffs, you could have
got them a super team, and it's it's just one
of the things how people just moved the goalpost, right,
they moved the goalpost, So this is of course they won.
They had the best defense, they had the best offense,
blah blah blah. It's like, well, why were they eleven
to one? So I think the whole public's come around
(09:39):
now on this team. That yeah, divisionalides value is there?
Win total? I would take it. I have them at
thirteen wins eleven and a half. That's a nice win total.
Conference in Super Bowl We've already talked about it. There's
no value there. Rather do Eagles with the matchups because
them to win this conference at three to one, they
need so many things to break their way once again
like it did last year, right, Like they just need
(10:00):
to be healthy and that is the hardest part in football.
So yeah, you can tell I'm really excited and fired
up for this team because we haven't had a repeat
champion like we had two. The last time we've had
a team win two Super Bowls and the next team
went two Super Bowls was I believe Pittsburgh and Miami
in the seventies. So that's how long it's been the NFL,
I think over fifty years now since we've had back
(10:21):
to back champs where they've gone back to back, back
to back. So as an Eagles fan, I'm really excited,
But as a better it's like this is the dream team.
It was the same thing as last year. Chad knows.
I love betting teams based on offensive lines and defensive
lines in their schemes, and this is just another team
that because how he's drafted so well, there's no glaring weakness,
so I have no fear of the curse of never
(10:42):
went the same team repeating this division. I think this
is the exact team type of team you need to
break that curse, which is a team that's not even
talking about last year Super Bowl. They've totally moved on
totally one direction. It all starts with Jalen Hurts. So yeah,
very very confident in this divisional bet. This is probably
my top three of my highest bet right now. It
opened at one fifty deck you dropped at some books
(11:03):
to one for five. So people are our betten Washington,
they are Betton Dallas, and they're moving this number. So
I'm hoping, I'm hoping doesn't get above one fifty Again,
I think this is this is the right price for
me and the value wise betten the Seagulls team.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
How we did how we during the draft, first five
picks on defense across the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary.
Three of the next four picks on the offensive line.
I think he knew they needed more offensive line depth.
They lost Makai Becton from that Super Bowl offensive line,
(11:39):
like you just mentioned Dickerson. We don't know what the
injury is, but Howie doesn't leave the cover bear in
the areas where he needs it most filled, where we love,
which is defensive line offensive line. I'm not even that
worried about them losing Kellen Moore the offensive coordinator because
to me, that's one of the reasons they sort of
(12:00):
fell off a cliff the year after winning the Super
Bowl is they did not get the coordinators right, both
offensively or defensively.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
They were off right.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
You mentioned Vic Fangio came in, and like, the good
thing about Fangio is a he's a brilliant defensive coordinator
who's proven it again and again and again, including last year.
He's not going to leave to go be a head coach.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Somewhere.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Meanwhile, the Eagles, they didn't go out and look for
a new offensive coordinator. They basically just promoted a guy
who's been on staff. Some of the disconnect that Jalen
had in adapting to new offensive coordinators the year after
winning the Super Bowl, I don't think will be a
problem this year, even though it's like it's his fifth
offensive coordinator in five years.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Losing Kellen Moore, it's it was a big deal, but
it's not when I really broke this team down where
they struggled. He wasn't even that big of a game teacher.
The Eagles were second and least points scored in the
first two quarters of games up until week thirteen, like
and then we kept betting against him in the First
War because they could not score for the life of them.
I told you what eventually happened was Jalen Hurts after
that Bio week, he went to them and just said,
(13:08):
we don't need to be a passing team. We should
be able to run first team, like we have the
ultimate cheat code in Saquon Barkley. And this upcoming season,
I think things might change where they might push the
ball a little bit more downfield. If possible, but I
look at it as don't change it. If it ain't broke,
don't fix it, like you know what you are, like,
keep feeding the beast to Sayquan was right him as
(13:28):
long as you can, as long as he's healthy. So yeah,
I think you nailed a chat where it's like usually
i'd be with some teams or it's like, well, you know,
this isn't like losing Ben Johnson. They're losing to a
guy who I think got propped up by the pieces
around him. He wasn't so much this offensive genius.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Quick heads up anybody playing fantasy football this season, the
Ultimate twenty twenty five draft kit is he your courtesy
of our Fantasy Labs team. This means our award winning
team of Sean Crounner and Chris Raybound have their rankings,
tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them,
you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription, and right now new
subscribers can get can use code flex twenty for twenty
(14:06):
dollars off at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex. Let
Sean and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code
flex twenty for twenty dollars off at Fantasy Labs dot
Com slash flex the Washington Commanders. You mentioned Jaden Daniels
Division plus two, twenty five Conference plus eight fifty Super
(14:29):
Bowl twenty to one win total nine and a half.
It's very easy to say fade the Commanders, but it's
the right thing to do. I think Jaden Daniels masks
everything that is wrong with this team. The O line
not very good. Does Laramie Tunsel make them that much better?
(14:51):
Is he on the other side of being peak? Terry
McLaurin holding out? Does Deebo Samuel on the other side
of peak make this team much better? In both cases
with Tunsel and Samuel, I think we're getting big time
guys whose productivity is a year or two behind them.
So again, they're going to be over reliant on Daniel's
(15:14):
playmaking ability. He's not just in fields right. He's not
an irresponsible scrambler. He's not Anthony Richardson. He doesn't make
himself vulnerable. There's no reason to think that what he
did last season performance wise was a fluke in terms
of his ability to keep the chains moving and find
(15:34):
success on fourth downs. But there's going to be some regression.
They literally converted nearly every first down, I would go
under nine and a half here. This would be sort
of the bet that I would peg in this division.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
Yeah, and I have him the seven and a half ones,
So there are way way way over nine and a half.
Is I couldn't believe when I saw that open, and
I know people would be like, well, you're being a
Washington hater, But it's just I think Chad's nailing a
little bit of how fluky last year was in many ways,
and they're being sucked into you know, if Baker doesn't
(16:14):
turn that ball over, they win that game, right, that
playoff game, what's their win total if they don't have
that run, right, it's probably eight and a half because
of how good they were last year, you know, so
you're already getting a bad like you're already betting on over.
If you're betting this with a fake win like that,
they're getting a bump in the books because of the
(16:36):
general public's view of this. So I can't believe people
are being sucked into this team where it's just so
much about their season last year was fluky, like they
I think they beat maybe it was two winning teams.
I know it was one team with a winning record
in the regular season, and it was the Eagles with
Kenny Pickett. Like I'm trying to think of any other
(16:56):
team they'd beat with a winning record. I can't think
of one. So this is just the team that beat
up on bad teams and you know, respect to them,
like good coaching. You know, we talked about like that
was the greatest rookie season we've ever seen, and Daniels
deserves that respect. So I get why the public is
loving him while the media loves him, and you know,
people are already putting him as a top five quarterback and
(17:18):
like everyone's just drinking the cool are right now. And
it's just natural for that because we've never seen anything
like it, Like we never saw a rookies come in
an offense like he did last year and take them
to the NFC Championship game. Was incredible. So I get
from their standpoint why they're so high in the sky.
But you know, like we're talking about here, when you
dive into it, you see how fluky last year it was,
and then you look at this team here what they've
(17:38):
added to it. It feels like they just added a
bunch of old guys, Like yeah, adding Von Miller is
great because he's a leader and there's some things he
can do, but that's not a game changing piece. Debo.
I like the move because you're going down and you're
trying to make your team better. But haven't we seen
what Debo has become? Right, He's just not the same
type of player as he was before, and his aggressive
(17:59):
style it seems like a it adds to him getting
hurt more often than not. So there's just so many
questions here. And then the number one thing that really
is pissing me off is this whole McLaurin thing. I
don't get it. I don't get how these organizations, with
these billionaire billion dollar owners like Josh Harris to just
pay this man's money like what he Terry went through
the dark days of Washington. He's been there through all
(18:21):
the shit and you never heard a word from him,
and every year he would go out and put out
another thousand yard season and finally you get a quarterback
perfect for him, and you want to be tight about it.
I just I hate it. I hated so much for
this Washington team because this is the window, like you
got Daniels on this cheap money, pay pay mclauren. If
(18:44):
you're worried about his age because I don't know if
he's thirty one or thirty, give back a three year
deal there. Just make it all guarantee, like he deserves that,
all that money and then so he's just he doesn't
get hurt. He always plays hard, and I hate this
distracted from them. So yeah, someone that likes their under
this is all good. This is all good things like
this drama, all field stuff. So yeah, to me, commandage
(19:05):
right now, we haven't a plus plus two hundred and
twenty five to win this division. I got them at
plus four hundred. I actually have Dallas at plus three hundred,
So I am way off compared to with the books
in the general public thing of this division, where I
think Dallas is clearly the second best team miss division.
The general public and some professional betters really believe this
(19:27):
Washington team. So I think it's a big miss and
I think we're on the same page. We expect a
lot of regression from Jane Daniels, but it's really the schedule,
Like their schedule was just so much harder than it
was last year. I just I can't see a ward
where they get the ten wins. It just seems like
it's going to be impossible with how hard the schedule was,
how much luck they need to break their way.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because when
I was taking a stand on this being my favorite
bet that they're under, I didn't know your rankings and
ratings had them at seven in and a half, which
two games, but you yeah, that's like one of the
biggest deltas we have here. So I'm feeling really good.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
It's not knocking the talent of the team. I just
think it's just the schedule so tough, Like it's just
not like it was last year they had kind of.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
They gotta they gotta play the teams in their division.
The Cowboys will be better. Yeah, they gotta play. They
gotta play. They gotta play the Cowboys twice. They got
to play the Eagles twice. They got to play the Chiefs,
they got to play the Vikings, they got to play
the Packers, they got to play the Lions.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Like it is not. Yeah, it's not. It's tough. So
that's that's my hesitation with them. People Like I get
why people are drinking the cool of that coming in,
but it's just it's the it's too Chad started at
the top of the show with it's who these who.
This conference plays outside their division, and with the way
their schedule breaks, it's just really tough for a young
team like this.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Dallas Cowboys six to one to win the Division, plus
six hundred Conference twenty five to one, Super Bowl fifty
to one win total, a paltry seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (21:12):
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart
of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
So listen. You and I have talked about the Cowboys
a lot this offseason. We've liked their value in the
division all off season long. I bet them on the
money line to beat the Eagles in Week one. I
bet them at plus seven to beat the Eagles in
Week one, and before the Micah Parsons drama, this was
(21:47):
all yes, yes, yes, yes yes, And like you have
been very influential in reminding me how good Dak can
be and that he is coming back this year, so
we shouldn't be down on this team. And I kept
(22:08):
remembering that the defensive line last year was playing second
and third stringers. For a large part of the year,
and that Micah Parsons is hopefully when I was making
these plays, going to be back. Jerry Jones is fucking
this shit up you just talked about like Josh Harris Pey,
Terry McLaurin. This is changing the dynamic for me all
(22:33):
of a sudden. Micah Parsons, even if he plays, might
not be in shape. The offensive line keeps losing starters
to injury. Dak is a thirty one year old who's
clearly got creaky wheels, so he won't be as mobile
as he has been. George Pickens could be a temper
tantrum away from ruining Brian Schottenheimer's rookie season. I'm losing
(22:54):
all my enthusiasm.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Simon good we don't want you on this boat. So
it's no one likes this team. That's what's been so fun.
Like I remember when we did our live show, and
I feel like it was years ago. It is whatever
March or April, and I gave it. I was my
best bet the live show and it was it was
met by son of Booze and I am with you people.
We all hate Dallas, Dallas, you know, being the only
(23:18):
team the NFC not to make the NFC Championship game
in the last thirty years. It warms my cold cold heart.
I love it like it's it's the best thing ever.
Like that meme of you know, Eagles watching their Super
Bowl reel on a DVD or on YouTube and Cowboys
fans plugging in the VHS tape to watch their Super
Bowl reel. I love it. I drink it up, and
(23:41):
you know I hate that. I have to be the guy,
the Gifford you want to get in here. Let's hear
it concisely.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
I don't think they're good enough anywhere offense, defense, but
I think there's enough there to get to eight. It's
probably looking like a classic Dallas Cowboys first round playoff
exit team, but that that's eight nine wins.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
I just don't want upside.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
Markets don't take good enough anywhere around the ball.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
So and again I talked to a lot of Cowboys
fans because shockingly, people wouldn't believe if you're not from Philadelphia,
we have a shocking amount of Cowboys fans in this area.
Like when I go to a sports book even the offseason,
there's about a thirty percent chance I will see a
Dallas cowboy hat or jersey in the sports book at
any given time they are here and talking to them,
(24:32):
this is exactly the team. This is what you want.
They have no confidence. If you talk to a Cowboys
fan last year, holy shit, where they shit on this
Eagles team talking about how they were gonna run away
with this division, how they're the best. Now they're all out.
They do not like or trust this team. They're not
that confident. And I'm the other way where it's like,
this is the same Dallas team that's probably gonna get
the twelve wins or eleven wins. This is what they do.
(24:55):
And people can shoot on Dak for what he does
in the playoffs. I agree, and and we're not talking
about that. We're talking about regular season right now. I'm
talking about win totals. And this was when I hammered
and I was pissed my model. I was like, oh,
my model will have this at ten. It doesn't it
as an eight and a half because they do have
a tough schedule. That's cool, it's a game above. So
(25:15):
it's like, because I already invested really heavily before I
really ran and dove into it, because when it first opened.
I couldn't believe it. And then we saw when the
schedule came out, the books were kind of ahead of it, right,
Them having four Thursday games, it's criminal, like them playing
the Chiefs on a short week. That's brutal. But hear
me out here, Chad, let me paint this Dallas Cowboys
stealing this division pitcher and how they can get to
(25:37):
twelve wins. They start with the Eagles, say they steal
that game opening ing Doc always plays well against the Eagles,
and this is the perfect time to steal this type
of game, Like, no one's gonna be counted on them.
Everyone's out on them. I think they're still a seven
point dog. Dak Prescott's a seven point dog against the Eagles.
It's crazy. If they steal that game, then beat the Giants,
then beat Chicago, that's a three and oh start, that's
(26:00):
not that crazy. Then beating the Giants or Chicago. Okay,
Green Bay is their kryptonite, but that's at home. Okay,
I'll say they lose that game, then they go Jets,
Carolina Washington. They're Washington's daddy. So like to me, you're
looking at a team right here, they'd be sitting at
six and one head into Denver, so like it's all
laid out for me in my opinion of like, if
(26:21):
they can get out to a hot start, if they
can go seven and two headed into their bye week,
head into Vegas, it's all there because they literally go Vegas,
then they get affillate at home. Like it it lines
up for them early in the year that they could
if they can come out and play well, they can
easily see this division. I think people are two down
on DAK and this offense where Pickens with CD, I
(26:42):
don't think people wrap their heads around how Delhi vicmbo
this is going through big like Seawanenheimer could be a
full on fucking idiot, and it's gonna work. On offense.
I'm telling you it's gonna work because exactly what DAK
likes to do, which is run crow routes or slants
across the middle. Pickens is deadly, especially about fades too,
which is really deadly. And CD has never had that.
CDs always live with two or three shell cover. Now
(27:05):
you're going to get him maybe single cover sometimes it's
usually it's probably gonna still be double. But even that
he can beat the doubles. So I am just so
so so happy that this number is still plus six
hundred because I gave it U plus seven hundred, and
I thought for sure this would be plus five hundred,
plus four hundred by now. Still no one's drinking the
cool and everyone just hates this Dallas team. So yeah,
(27:26):
this even though I love the Eagles, I've I've hyped
it up. This is clearly my favorite value wised divisional
bet plus six hundred. It's amazing, amazing odds where I'm
telling you people, they are not that much worse than
the Eagles. I have him a plus three hundred for
this division and for a win total again, my model
has an eight and a half. I think this is
easily a ten win team, nine win team, so seven
(27:46):
and a half. It's one of my favorite totals. I've
been betting it for three months now. It's just it's
lined up for this team. I just even even with
the Parsons drama, I agree with you, this is what
Jerry does like. Jerry just does this type of thing.
So I'm with you. I wish it wasn't happen in
this way and it could get ugly quick, but as
we sit here right now, what is it, August twelfth,
August eleventh. I'm confident that if they get it done
(28:07):
the next week or two, that's plenty of time. Two
three weeks for Parsons to get into game shape before
this Eagles game. I think that's plenty of time. Where
he's been working out, but like you said, he's been
doing zero contact, which is an issue, like you need
to have contact in the preseason to get ready for
the upcoming season. So I'm with that's that's the only
reason I'm not all in this team. I think the
Eagles are still going to seal this win this division.
It's just it's it's the Jerry Jones effect. He just
(28:29):
there's so much extra bullshit that these other teams don't
have to deal with when you have Jerry Jones as
your owner.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
Consistency is a cowboy trade bark underscored by winning seasons,
division titles, and world championship.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
So, as has been the theme for the past couple
of shows, we're generally on the same side. I feel
like the things that you're discounting is not mattering. Specifically,
the Micah Parson stuff. He kind of glossed over offensive
line because I do think that offensive line injuries are
piling up for them already, and they were already having
(29:07):
to figure out what to do with an offensive line
that matters with a quarterback who's.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
Negative offensive line brother in like three four years, Like
you're thinking.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
Of what's getting hurt.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
Yeah, but again he's every year they went twelve games,
Like last year was the anomaly he got hurt. I
think he was three and five when he got hurt,
like he was not playing well. I agree with you,
but like again, people have just moved too quick. Like
you didn't even have Dak in your top ten. You
you're out on me. I don't even you had him
your top fifteen. So that's what I mean. People are
just totally out on Dak in the team. Listen, you
(29:42):
didn't mention his name. You mentioned to his name rather
than mentioned that is well, I'm not letting you.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
That is revisionist history. I had Dak at thirteen.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Yeah bullshit. So that's what I mean. It's just they
just line up as this team where people don't like
their head coach, they're all negative about it, and end
of the year they're going to have some how it
went some way, somehow they're gonna have double digit wins
and it's just the talent level is that high. I
think they just have so much talent. And my only
fear right now for this team is what you just
(30:10):
talked about the Parsons with that d line. If it's
a distraction, if they didn't, you know, add the right pieces,
they still can't stop the run. Yeah, their defense could
be atrocious, but that offense, man like Dak has the
ultimate weapons. And your question about their offensive line, they've
been drafting offensive linemen and they've got some guys in
there that I think, do you project out to be
pretty good? So that's why I'm not as worried about
(30:31):
them as you are. Where it's like, you know, if
you want to talk about bad offensive lines, I could
spend a half hour in Miami's offensive line. So it's
like you got to give and take with you certain
teams about I'm with you. There are some injuries, but yeah,
it's I think that with the weapons they have in Dallas,
I just I don't get why Washington's the second favorite
team this division. I just think it should be Dallas again.
(30:54):
As much of them going to Dallas here, still people
don't forget Eagles to win this division, still probably the
best bet at minus one four forty five.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
New York Football Giants thirty to one to win the division,
seventy five to one to win the conference, two hundred
to one to win the Super Bowl win total five
and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
The New York Giants' glory years are a distant memory
for their long suffering followers who have endured through the
worst of time. But today anticipation has replaced frustration.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
I've been grilling Ai constantly the last couple of weeks
about the advanced metrics. The best correlate to covering.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
Oh that poor Ai.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
Spread no matter anyway I slice it. Defense comes up,
and we talked about this with the Jets, right like
defense success rate, defensive EPA pressure rate. If the Giants
have Dexter Lawrence healthy in the middle of the defensive line,
they can be a very disruptive force. When they were
(31:56):
when he was healthy last year top ten and pressure
rate because as he commands so much attention, it made
life so much easier for Caveon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns.
Now they have Abdua Carter. So I was leaning to
the over and I think a lot of it is
similar to what you were saying about the Jets, Like
(32:20):
they have the scheme and they have the defense that
I think can be really impactful, and I kind of
have to believe that their quarterback, probably Russell Wilson, can
be competent enough to allow them to steal a couple
of games. Because they got the Commanders, Cowboys Chiefs to start.
(32:43):
Not easy, but then they got the Saints in Week four.
Then it gets hard again. Eagles Broncos, Eagles Niners. But
this defense makes it hard for me to commit it.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
No, don't, don't overthink it. You just nailed it there.
They're dead. They are dead. They're in an impossible defense
and a possible division without a quarterback, like it's there.
When I first saw their schedule, I thought it was
a glitch. I was like, wait, this is the last
place schedule. Who's the last place teams they play like
it's the Saints. That's the one gift they get from
(33:22):
becoming in last place. It's brutal. Their schedule is brutal.
There is no it feels like there's no two weeks
of just relief, like they're they're the relief this year
for all all these different teams like this is just yeah,
their defensive line might be all right, and Russell Wilson,
sure he could steal a game, like Neighbors is an
incredible receiver. We've seen, you know, their head coach win
(33:43):
games with a guy that you know shouldn't even be
in the league. Like it's they they do have good
coaching and they do have talent across the defense. I'm
with you, I want to get into it, but you know,
Andrew Thomas, their best offensive line is already hurt. Like
that's that's a nightmare. Me and you talked about last year.
We didn't put a single dollar on them he went
down because we were just like, they're never whoever's quarterback
there is just gonna die. And that's what happened in
(34:05):
the season. So it's it sucks. We're like people obviously
have seen a pattern here. I love betting the worst
teams in divisions because it's always you always gonna lie
to yourself in a lot and and kind of think
to yourself, they can find six wins, like you know,
there's there's ways to get there. But with this team,
despite what Chad said, which is true, like they have
probably one of the best two lines in all football.
(34:28):
They might have one of the worst secondaries in all football.
They might have one of the worst offensive lines of football.
They don't have a running back. Like, what the hell
is That Dude's name is Cam Skattaboo. He's fun. I
love watching his college highlights. That dude looks like he
runs a five, like a five point oh forty like
he I don't know if he's gonna be the game changer.
They need it running back. And you know, as much
(34:49):
as we love neighbors, teams were happy to let neighbors
be the only guy to beat them. Right last year
we saw that where they would get up by twenty
and you can stop doubling Neighbors get his junk time yards.
So it's it's just a team where I can't find
five wins, let alone four wins. They just they screamed
to be top of the draft type of team. And
(35:10):
if I was them, I would just start dart from
get go. Like to me, he had one throw in
the preseason. That's all I needed to see where it's like, Okay,
this kid's raw. He might not know how it takes
snaps from under center and come in an offense, but
let's just get him out there and let the bullets fly.
Let him just get through it, because if he can
show something, then you keep him. If not, you're gonna
once again have a top two, top three draft pick.
(35:32):
Like this, there's just no way this team is outside
that draft zone. So it's it's dark days right now
for Giants fans, Like, it's just you're in a division
now with Jane Daniels, Dak, and Jalen Hurts, which I mean,
I think Chad's come around on Dak a little, but
he probably would say Dak's close to a top ten quarterback.
That's brutal. You're in a division with three potential top
ten quarterbacks. You're so far behind the eight ball. So yeah,
(35:56):
I did. I wanted to get there with you Giants
fans and find wins for you guys. If I look
at it, I'm just like, if they got the three
wins this year, that to me would be a good
season for this Giants team. That's how brutal of the
schedule is, and that's how bad their team is when
I plug them into my model. So I gotta have
four wins if you get over three tons of respect
to this team. But yeah, five and a half. I'll
(36:18):
take that under every time if it's a game and
a half. So yeah, there it should be. They're two
hundred and one to win the super Bowl. That that
that sounds right. They are that bad nightmare schedule. Yeah,
Like if you're a season ticket a order, I would
take the year off from a Giants fan like this.
Speaker 1 (36:34):
I was shocked when I went through the schedule and
I looked at it. I'm like, this is fucking insane.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
How was this the last play schedule?
Speaker 1 (36:42):
I couldn't How do they do this to somebody? Yeah,
the scriptwriters did not get the memo that you gotta
make one of the marquee teams in the biggest city
have a little bit of a fighting chance.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's it's they're just again, they're in a really brutal vision.
Our outside division games this year are just awful. Like
it's just like you said, playing playing the AFC North,
or yeah, it's AFC North playing the AFC West. It
doesn't get much worse.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
Favorite division bet for you it's the Eagles minus one
forty five and then maybe a little taste of the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
It that's Cowboy's definitely best value for long shot.
Speaker 1 (37:21):
Six to one. I like the Commanders under nine and
a half total wins. The Favorites will return with our
next episode Tuesday and the Action Network You two page
where we cover the NFC North with a very special
guest interview. Downloads from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get
(37:43):
your pods, Rate, review, subscribed, leave us five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is a gift Until next time.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
I Love you.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
Action Network reminds you please gamble and responsibly. If you
or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help
is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.