The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 5

Are the Cowboys cooked? Are the Rams packing it in? And can Cincinnati jump back into the AFC North race? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to answer these questions and give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more. 

Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

(00:29):
my BFF, professional better, Simon Hunter and Hols.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
I'm in Hello, Chad, how are we doing, dude?

Speaker 1 (00:37):
It's going to be a great day today, especially this show.
I feel like there were two games in particular that
I cannot wait to dig into, one of which we
discussed you were being bullied. I wanted you to stand strong.
One of which I came in hot and you immediately
flip me to other side. Today is our NFL Week

(00:59):
five Best Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down
our five picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars
Pro Football Pick Some contest presented by BET three sixty five.
Can still sign up Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We
will also get into the Foxhole give out. Are still Undefeated,

(01:20):
Tommy John Big Balls Bet of the Week discuss Simon's
biggest bets are boosted money Line Underdog Parlay, which cast
cashed last week, the Underdog Round Robin, and so much more.
Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decision need to
be made. As our volume podcast, boss Colin Cowherd likes

(01:41):
to say, there's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 3 (01:44):
Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to
be generationally wealthy.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
There's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can

(02:10):
be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

(02:31):
or one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. All right, we need to give a note
at the top of the podcast because Evan has some stats.
I think a lot of us have been feeling like

(02:53):
these numbers are so tight. If you have been feeling
like every line is two, three, four, or five, you're
not wrong. This week, only two of the fourteen games
on the slate have a spread of six or more.
Nine have spreads under a field goal. Looking at next week,

(03:14):
every look aheadline is under a touchdown. If you think
that kind of parody is normal, it is nine. The
average spread for an NFL favorite this season is four
point two points per game through the first four weeks.
That's the lowest number since the NFL strike season of

(03:37):
nineteen eighty. To take out that strike season, it's the
lowest since the fall of nineteen sixty during the campaign
for president between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. That's insane.

Speaker 3 (03:56):
And they may well ask why choose this, as I'll
go on, Why climb the highest mountain? Why fly the Atlantic?
Why does Rice play Texas? Not because they are easy,
but because they are hard? Because that challenge is one
that we're willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postponed,

(04:17):
and one we intend to win.

Speaker 1 (04:19):
Does it feel like it's been harder or are we
making more of it than it is.

Speaker 4 (04:23):
I wouldn't say harder is the right verb.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
I would say it's than the league's ever been more competitive,
which I love.

Speaker 4 (04:29):
This is a weekend.

Speaker 2 (04:29):
If you're into college football, you can probably take this
weekend off. You're not really getting that in the NFL
right now, right we have a lot of really good
close games.

Speaker 4 (04:37):
That's the best part about this league.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
And you know, sometimes people say it makes it tougher
for betting, but not meet chat. I see a lot
of value this week, So I'm excited to dive into
these games me too.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
I feel good. I actually felt like we were looking
at some games and finding some real clarity. There's gonna
be some real distinction between pros and Joe's and games
that are bet and ugly. As always, on Thursdays during
the season, we like to hear how the wise guys
responding to our Tuesday conversation. I think that's especially true
this week. We had a lot of questions on Tuesday.
We were wondering what the feedback would be the lines move.

(05:10):
Based on our conversation Silon, the pros feel compelled to
weigh in. Let's do it, Sharp Colls.

Speaker 4 (05:20):
Hello, who's there.

Speaker 2 (05:22):
I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

Speaker 1 (05:26):
Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

Speaker 2 (05:30):
Yeah, let's start just where the pros are split right now.
We talked earlier in the week about this Panther Chicago game.
The professionals are split on that game. They like both
sides for various reasons. Sam could be said for this
Jaguires Colts game we talked about earlier in the week.
That's a really split game. Denver Raiders a game we
talked about. That's another game that's really split. Talked a
lot of professionals forty nine Ers, Cardinals, same deal. There's

(05:53):
there's people on both sides. Both are both guys are,
you know, taking positions on what they believe in. And
you know this last one, this Chief Saints game. Shockingly,
I thought it was gonna be pros Joe's it's actually
a pretty split chat. I know some professionals that actually
liked them match up for this Chiefs team here, I
think it's more about fading. Derek Carr. So interesting to
dive into all those ones. For us, the pros, I

(06:15):
lined up with a lot of sides we loved, right.
They love the Rams a game we talked about. They
love the Bengals the game we talked about. They love Houston.
That's another one we talked about in the game. I
kind of am getting you there, but I'm not sure
you're totally committed yet. Is Pittsburgh. That's just the pros
love this Pittsburgh side. The public absolutely loves the Dallas side.
So yeah, you're definitely right. This is a big Pros

(06:38):
versus Joe's week. It's very split, and it scares me
a little bit because the public there du chat, they've
been taking a beating this year. They are definitely overdue
to have a good week. So will it be this week?

Speaker 4 (06:49):
I hope not.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
Yeah, the public has been getting slammed this year. I
can't remember the exact number. I know Evan. As soon
as I said that, Evan put his fingers on the keyboard.
I can see it in the screen. He's checking the
latest stats to see how the public is doing this year,
and he'll put it in the chat. But I know, Look,
last year was the best year the public had ever had.
This year, the public has been getting slammed through four weeks.
I'm glad they raised some of these games the betting public,

(07:14):
so fifty one percent of tickets or more twenty two
and thirty eight and two against the spread this season.
So look, that's that is the worst start for the
betting public through the first four weeks in the last
twenty years. By the way, how amazing is Evan Abrams
that before I even finished the sentence, he already had

(07:35):
the stat in the chat thirty seven percent against the spread.
That guy is a freaking magician, Simon. This is why
when we do live events, people want Evan to sign
their authentic NFL jerseys. True, he's amazing. That Pittsburgh game
is interesting. I'm glad you brought it up. I definitely
want to talk about that one, all right, Carolina Chicago.

(08:00):
It's I I understand why the wise guys are split
for us. It was see you.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
I can't believe.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
I can see it. You know why, I can totally
see it because look when we talked about it Sunday night,
and we loved the Bears at five.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
That was the plays.

Speaker 1 (08:20):
I mean, we love the Panthers at five. That was
the play. It was a one number play. It got
back down to three and a half and then it
came back up to four. So I could see why
Wise guys were coming in on the three and a
half and from a matchup perspective makes perfect sense, right,
Like the the Bear strengths play to what are now

(08:48):
some strengths for the Panthers. The Bears are great in coverage,
great in pass rush, right, so they can do things
to Andy Dalton and maybe he has a confront so
far in the games that he's played in stabilizing this team.
The Panthers are probably first or second in a run blocking.

(09:11):
The Bears are not very good against the run, So
I do think that's an advantage for the Panthers, and
if they're smart enough to game plan to the Bears weakness,
they could change the peace of this game and keep
it a little bit closer. Meanwhile, the strength for the
Bears potentially could be Caleb Williams, who has been improving

(09:34):
getting the ball downfield against a team that is twenty
sixth and coverage. So I can see why wise guys
see both sides of this.

Speaker 2 (09:42):
Yeah, And you know, going back to Evans article. He
talked about how Caleb Williams we've never had let him
one pick start the way he started. Right, He's three
to one against the spread. You know, three games they've
been the favorite on the spread, which is pretty wild
to think will be the fourth game now that he's.

Speaker 4 (10:01):
A favorite on the spread.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
So you know, all the hype, all the public being
all over this team, You're right, like this has been
a really impressive start for this Bears team. I can
see why, you know, the public is still going to
be backing this spare team. I just from a betting perspective,
You're right, it's just like man at three and a half,
I guess that makes sense to be on the Bears,
But any other number you got to take Panthers, especially

(10:25):
now that it's back up to four. So I just
don't know if this's gonda up want to be one
of our fives now because I just don't really have
confidence in this number. But it is a game. I
bet on the Panthers, and maybe I'll end up being
a money line around Robin. But it just it's just
the lust and the love I've had for this number
on Sunday is kind of where off by the time
we've hit Thursday.

Speaker 5 (10:43):
Here.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
Well, listen, you're still young, but you less than love.
It just doesn't last that long when you're old like me.
It really I'm thirty years in at this point, so
I can understand why I could continue to love the
Panthers and why at this point the Pan' I don't
think it'll end up this way right now. The Panthers

(11:04):
are my biggest bet of the weekend, but that's also
because I bet him at plus five. So I will
probably pile more money into some of these games that
we're going to be talking about, including one I think
that will surprise you as we get closer on I'm
not uncomfortable with the Bears with the Panthers being one
of our five. If we end up getting it at

(11:25):
four and a half, it's not going to be four.
It's going to be four and a half or three
and a half. So you know, Buffalo Houston, like this
was a wait and see game for us. We wanted
sort of the hope expectation that the line, the line
may go up a little bit we get a bigger

(11:45):
number on Houston. There are some places where it's at
one and a half. We like the line flipping in.
The Texans favor teams to open and as an underdog
and close as a favorite. So in this case, the
Bills have historically struggled to cover that number. Basically, there's

(12:05):
seventy one and one hundred since twenty nineteen. This week,
We've got a few candidates there. Pittsburgh, we'll talk about
that one. Green Bay talk about that one. Washington, we'll
talk about that one. Baltimore, we'll talk about that one.

(12:30):
So interesting here, I'm liking Houston more and more.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
I do really like Houston. I would just say, you know,
talking to professionals and hearing their reasoning for being on
the Bills even at this number, still this late into
the week, it's all sounds them trusting Josh Allen more
in this spot after a loss. I think even Evan
had it like he's he's good at bouncing back after
those type of games, but not so much at covering

(12:59):
in these type of games. Right, He's good at winning
them straight up. And that's what's tough here is this
is a straight up winner number. Right at plus one
and a half, you have a little bit more wiggle room,
but when it's just plus one it's like, Okay, we're
betting on Houston to win this game, Like there's no
real action here on the spread at plus one, so
uh yeah, in our contest, this will probably be plus
one and a half. My dream was that, right the

(13:20):
public would come in heavy on this Bill team when
we would get a really good number at plus two
plus two and a half on this Houston team, the
professionals have just kept it down right. Anytime it's even
crept up close to two, they've kind of hit it
back down a one and a half at a lot
of these public books. So look at that matchup wise,
we talked about it. I wanted to see Joe Mixon
in practice. Unfortunately he didn't practice yesterday. With what time

(13:42):
we're doing the show out right now, we just don't
have the information if he's going to be out there
for their practice. I believe it starts either at two
or one thirty Houston's practice, so we'll know better info after.

Speaker 4 (13:53):
This show's over.

Speaker 2 (13:54):
But even if it's cam makers, I can still in
my mind lie to myself be like, oh, well, he's
good enough to make this war. But yeah, when you
go back and watch that Bill's Ravens game, it is
pretty damning how you can really attack the middle of
the field.

Speaker 4 (14:08):
And the tape might be out now on this Bill's.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
Team, So gonna be interesting if McDermot can make a
adjustment here and you know, fix this defense in a
one week turnaround on the road and back to back weeks.
But yeah, like we like the spot for Houston.

Speaker 4 (14:24):
We talk all the time.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
We like CJ as a dog. Right, he's six and
three in his career as a dog. I think he's
three and eight or three and seven as a favorite.
So for us right in the wave that is this
Houston team, you expect this to be a good spot.

Speaker 4 (14:39):
Right.

Speaker 2 (14:39):
They didn't play well against the Jacksonville team, but they
found a way to win. This is a game you
assume they'd start playing better because the matchup does favor them.
And on the flip side, there's a reason that Bills
are been the conversation for Devanta Adams. As fun as
it is, having a bunch of nameless guys and trying
to make it work, you do need someone on third
down you can depend on. And who knows if Josh

(15:00):
set it to his coaching staff or the owner or
the gym or whoever, that he wonts someone like that
on this team, because they should be going after someone
like Devont Dams, Like, this team's too good, Josh Allen's
too good to waste a year.

Speaker 4 (15:11):
So the Spills team, Chad, maybe this is the time
we do attack.

Speaker 2 (15:15):
And I think we maybe overrated them a little bit
because they played three bad teams to start the season.

Speaker 4 (15:20):
So this is another great test for them.

Speaker 2 (15:22):
On the same side for Houston, like, we'll get a
nice gauge of what this Houston team is because they
got absolutely rolled against that Vikings team. So yeah, we're
basically just playing the number here, playing the dog at
plus one plus one and a half.

Speaker 1 (15:35):
Look, the numbers matter, especially when we put it in
context with what Evan said in his notes earlier about
parody has never been more evident with the spreads being
historically low, right, And just look at the Cowboys Giants
game on Thursday night. We loved the Cowboys when the

(15:57):
Cowboys were at four four and a half before the game,
and then over twenty four hour that was like Tuesday Wednesday.
Over the next twenty four hours, it bumped back up
to five and a half. It got up to six
in some places, if you got the best of the number,
and that's never been more important. That half point when
the spreads are this small, means so much. The Cowboys

(16:19):
won that game by five, Aubrey missed the field goal
to put them up by eight. That's the difference. And
when the spreads are as small as they are, half
a point is by a percentage margin because that much
more important when you're trying to make these decisions. So
the difference between one and one and a half, in
again where Josh Allen historically doesn't cover, is the difference

(16:41):
between winning and losing. If you like the Texans in
this game, I think it's worth it to try to
find a one and a half somewhere. I do agree
Nico Collins is just a monster right now and CJ.
Stroud can find some of that third down mojo in
the middle of the field against a Bill's defense that

(17:02):
really doesn't have linebackers and more importantly, doesn't have any
safeties right now who can play with any effectiveness against
someone like Nico Collins.

Speaker 2 (17:10):
Take Dell, Take and Dell.

Speaker 1 (17:13):
Yeah, I'm not sure I can convince myself that Cam
Ankers can do what Joe Mixing can do. There is
a massive difference, but I can I can convince myself
that Joe Mixon if if he is, if they have been,
if Demiko Ryans has said Joe Mixon is day to day,
which is what he said earlier in the week, didn't

(17:33):
practice on a Wednesday, which is a veteran thing. It
might be right if he doesn't practice today, I still
might be able to convince myself that he's playing this weekend.
I'm putting Houston down just as like maybe maybe, but
it's definitely not Foxhall. All right, one game, this was
your assignment, says Baltimore, since he sincey two and a half. Wise,

(17:57):
guys coming in on the Bengals. If you made it
the Simon says it three, it makes perfect sense. Like
it's not technically a bi low Sell high spot right now,
certainly a cell on the Ravens and a Bengals team
that has played well offensively the past few weeks. I
do like that you mentioned Burrow as an MVP candidate

(18:18):
on Tuesday. Currently twenty two to one. Reminder, in this spot,
home Division dogs fifty four percent against the spread since
twenty twenty. In September and October, the past ten years
sixty percent against the spread. The real question is there
are some books Simon where the juice is indicating this

(18:43):
code go back to three. Do people wait for it
to get back to three or do they just take
the two.

Speaker 4 (18:49):
And a half.

Speaker 2 (18:50):
I'd wait, how does the public not keep coming in
on this team, especially where you know people have more
access to the numbers everyone just looked at the basically
the look at right now is the Bengals are one
of the worst teams against the run on football, and
that's exactly what the raven was gonna do. So I think,
you know, most fans are gonna hear that this whole
weekend and comes Sunday. I think it's gonna be too

(19:12):
tempting for them to not take this Ravens team at
minus two and a half, especially where you know, one
of my favorite stats ever is is if it's Lamar
and it's under a field goal, he's up to what
twenty four and seven now against the spread in the
spot when he's either under three or an underdog. So
you know, the trends point to it too as well.
We're really just playing the city team that they're gonna

(19:34):
be able to figure out this Ravens team and just
make them one dimensional. Right, everything I've read and seen,
it's just like they know what they need to do.
They need to just load the box and try to
make Lamar beat you with his arm.

Speaker 4 (19:44):
And you know, the key to that offense in the
Ravens is all the misdirection.

Speaker 2 (19:48):
When you go back and watch that Bills game, half
the team is going to the left, the other half's
going to the right, and there'll be none in the middle,
and they would just run it up the middle. Then
when if they would have guys stay in the middle,
Lamar would read it and they just take it out
to the right. It was everything they wanted to do
in that game that kind of had.

Speaker 4 (20:03):
Them off tilt.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
And you know in this matchup, I could see the
censing out really being thrown off by it.

Speaker 4 (20:08):
Right.

Speaker 2 (20:08):
They see Lamar twice a year every year. They kind
of know what's coming at this point. So I'm not
shocked that this numbers come down just because I knew
the professionals would come in on the three.

Speaker 4 (20:19):
The shocking part of it is even like the Joe.

Speaker 2 (20:21):
Public books moved at two and a half, So that
was pretty shocking to me that they're they're inviting all
this Ravens money, which means the books are taking their
own position on this one because they knew as soon
as that Sunday in that game ended, they're like, okay,
this is gonna be one of our biggest needs for
the sides. Right, they knew everybody's to come in so
heavy on this Ravens team just because people were, you know,

(20:42):
all week we're talking about the Bills the best team
of football, Josh Allen's you know, the MVP.

Speaker 4 (20:47):
That's just how this league works, right, so weak the week.

Speaker 2 (20:50):
So yeah, for us, Jed, this is just a prime
spot where even if Cincinnati gets rolled here, we were
never gonna dodge this bullet. Like we love playing these spots,
playing these was these home divisional dogs, So contest Deviso
is hoping we're gonna get spoiled and get a three
and a half because that would have been such a
key number in this game. But it feels like we
have to bite the bull and just take it two

(21:11):
and a half.

Speaker 1 (21:12):
Yeah, we are. I agree with you. This is going
to be a contest play. Yeah, there's really there's no
question it's the right spot to play. The Bengals as
scary as it is. I I the the thing that
will make us think twice is that Lamar Jackson stat.
If not for that Lamar Jackson stat about a short

(21:34):
favorite or an underdog, I don't have any hesitation at
all playing the Bengals really at almost any number between
two and three, two, two and a half or three.
But that gives me a little pause. I think the
Bengals are the right side, but that gives me a
little bit of pause.

Speaker 2 (21:50):
No, I agree, I mean, honestly, it's it's why I've
just been riding this this Ravens team last two weeks,
like they've been really good to me. I know we
haven't had the contest, but like you know, me person,
I had been betting them. So this is just this
is part of the game where it's like eventually the
value gets too high, and I think it's gotten too high.

Speaker 4 (22:07):
You're on this this Ravens team.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
The next game that we got to talk about, we're
betting means doing bad things that make you really uncomfortable.
Cleveland at Washington, it wasn't three and a half came
down to three, trending back towards three and a half.
All the money, all the tickets on Washington talk about

(22:35):
Bilo sell High. I hate this, I hate it, I
hate it, but at some point we have to fade Washington,
and in this game, it's either Cleveland or to pass.
Like there's no there's no other option here.

Speaker 2 (22:54):
I took another option I ended up taking. I told you,
I took Washington minus three.

Speaker 1 (22:57):
And it's just I think it's a mistake, big mistake.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
It probably is, But I can't find a reason to
bet Cleveland.

Speaker 4 (23:03):
Like even when I went through.

Speaker 2 (23:05):
Evans trends, there were no like huge trends. You got
to ride these trends to bet this Cleveland team here.
I think we're all betting it just because the books
coming into the year, and myself included, we're down on
this Washington team. Everyone's thinking, Okay, they've overcorrected at this point,
and my view is is, I don't know if they have.
Like to me, this number feels right for how bad

(23:27):
this Cleveland team is, it's they've only they're only getting
worse every week. And you're really, if you're making this bet,
you're really betting on Jim Schwartz figuring out Jayden Daniels
Like there is there is no world where if Washington
gets over twenty one points, does Cleveland stay in this game.

Speaker 4 (23:44):
I just I have no faith watching Desaun Watson.

Speaker 2 (23:46):
I mean that Vegas team is not that good and
they had no Max Crosby, and he looked terrible once again.

Speaker 4 (23:53):
Deshaun Watson, I mean he is.

Speaker 2 (23:55):
I think he's like the fifty third graded QB right
now in the NFL, which sounds insane, I even real,
but that's a real statu It's how bad he's been
this season. So I get it, Chad, like the professional
me wants to take him. That's why it's like I
barely even really bet this game because I have no
read on it where I know I'm probably doing the
wrong thing and I'm overvaluing this Washington offense, but it's

(24:17):
like they match up well offensively and then defensively. I
don't really know if Watson don't attack this weakness of
this team in their secondary.

Speaker 4 (24:25):
So you're right, this is probably where I should bet him.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
But it's like I can't love every dog, and this
dog I just don't.

Speaker 1 (24:32):
Like, we don't know about David and Djoku. If he
will be back after three games, I think that would
make a huge difference. For Deshaun Watson. I think we
need another day of practice to know what his status is.
I will give you one stat that plays to playing Cleveland.

(24:55):
Teams covering the spread by more than five points per game,
which is the Washington Commanders only cover forty three percent
of the time when facing teams with a winning percentage
of less than sixty percent, which is the Cleveland Browns.
So there is a direct by low sell high stat

(25:20):
to help us make help us be a little bit
more comfortable betting Cleveland. I don't think I want to
bet them at three. If I'm going to bet him,
I want the three and a half, and it's probably
going to be a quarter unit to half a unit way.
It's I don't know. I don't think it's gonna be
a big one, but I think we're gonna have a
hard time finding the final five, and this one could
be one of the last ones out or the last

(25:42):
one in.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
That's actual worry. I already got our five or six
if you want to, but we'll get there.

Speaker 4 (25:47):
Don't worry. This does not need to be one of
our five. I could good.

Speaker 2 (25:50):
I can't cheering on Watson this Sunday, the autumn win
is a rader pillaging.

Speaker 1 (25:59):
Just Las Vegas at Denver. I don't know what's happening
with this game, you said, like you pointed out, this
is a game that's split. Are we fading the Broncos offense?
Are we betting against sort of the short division home favorite?
Don't forget last twenty years, that's forty five percent, just

(26:19):
as a short home favorite of three points or last
the past since twenty twenty that's forty four percent. I'm sorry,
forty two percent. So there is a trend here to
fade the Broncos. But Jesus Christ, like the Raiders offense

(26:43):
is terrible, The Broncos offense is terrible. The Broncos defense
is playing at an elite level. I know why this
is split. We were pretty heavy on the not heavy,
but we were intrigued by the Raiders Sunday and then
early in the week.

Speaker 2 (26:58):
Yeah, I just really liked the especially when I got
up to plus three. It's like that feels like way
too much respect to bo Nicks, who just won two
straight road games.

Speaker 4 (27:06):
Now they're coming home, and.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
You know, I get the reaction to it, and historically,
I mean even haven't had it in as notes, I
mean this Raiders team, I think they're twelve and one
the last thirteen against the spread against this Denver team,
like they usually own Denver, that's the one thing in
this division they do well against. I don't know what
to do either, Chat. I think we're just scared because

(27:29):
the number doesn't make sense, Like why there's no sense? Yeah,
Like some books do have it at one and a
half though, so like to me, that gives me a
little more confidence where it's like, okay, at least you know,
some some books are taking professional money on this Raiders
team and they're bending down because I don't get it either.
Like I also thought maybe it's DeVante Adams stuff the
drama in the locker room, but apparently does not even

(27:50):
let him come into the facility right now, So it's like, okay,
that's not an excuse yet either.

Speaker 4 (27:54):
So I don't know what to do either.

Speaker 2 (27:56):
Like the problem is CHAT with this this sometimes it
is too easy and we should just try us the
number and be like this isn't a trap. This is
a good number.

Speaker 4 (28:03):
We should bet it.

Speaker 2 (28:04):
But I think we both were just a little wary
of this one. There's something a little off with this
number and the fact that I know that there's professional
the other side, you know, they kind of talk about
what you're talking about here. They really like that defensive
front for Denver. They think they're gonna give them trouble
to this Raiders team. On the flip side, they think
they'll little move the ball against this Raiders team with
bo Nicks in this offense. So I get where they're

(28:26):
coming from. I just I can't believe bon Nicks is
a three point favorite over an NFL team right now.
So that's my hardest one to adjust here. It's like
divisional game. The Raiders aren't that bad, right, they're two
and two. It's just, man, I can't believe this number
is two and a half three. It is.

Speaker 4 (28:43):
It's the weirder number of the week.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
It's funny the way you say bo Nicks. You say
it with this weird aura and tone of disdain and disgust.
I can't believe bone Knicks is gonna be a three
point favorite.

Speaker 2 (29:00):
It's like it's Will Levis. It's Will Levis with Sean
Payne and as his coach. Honestly, that's what he is
to me. It's just like this guy has so much.

Speaker 4 (29:08):
To work on.

Speaker 2 (29:09):
You see that, you see little sparks, right, He's got
good arm, he's got he's a good runner. There are
things there to like, but overall, it's just like he's
not even in the same conversation as you know, Jade
and Daniels or or Williams.

Speaker 4 (29:23):
Here.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
It's just like, there's a reason people talk about him
being a second round pick that Sean Payne reached for him.
You're kind of seeing it earlier in the year. But
I don't want to knock him two back because he's
sitting here at two and two, like, that's that's pretty
impressive for the rookie.

Speaker 1 (29:37):
What I'm gathering is we don't feel great about this
game yet. We probably need more interesting if.

Speaker 2 (29:42):
This is one of our three though that or one
of our five. I should say on Sunday to people,
I was.

Speaker 1 (29:46):
Gonna I was just gonna say exactly what I my
next sentence, like my wife I will be talking and like,
the next sentence I'm going to say is the answer
she wants. She never lets me get there.

Speaker 4 (30:00):
Your wife, thanks, So it's so the.

Speaker 1 (30:03):
Next sentence was going to be I feel like on
Sunday We're going to have a hard heart to heart
about this game. That's what I think.

Speaker 2 (30:11):
It's right on the edge. It's it's number tens right now.

Speaker 1 (30:14):
Don't be bullied by this next game, Simon, Arizona, San Francisco.
Do not be bullied. You said you were getting bullied.
You shouldn't be bullied. The wise guys are seeing, they're
seeing ghosts. Okay. Yeah, the Cardinals were just blown out
teams to lose by twenty eight plus points the previous week,

(30:34):
and our dogs are four more sixty two percent against
the spread the past twenty years. The Niners just one
big teams to lose by seventeen versus a team who
won by seventeen the previous week, sixty percent against its
spread the past twenty years. Division dogs fifty six percent
since twenty twenty. Give me the Arizona Cardinals at seven

(30:57):
and a half.

Speaker 2 (31:00):
All right, we can put him in. It's the most
public dog of the week, Chad. I don't know if
Fieldc's steping in it.

Speaker 1 (31:06):
It's not. It's the cowboys, the cowboys and the public dog.

Speaker 4 (31:10):
Yeah, that's fair.

Speaker 2 (31:12):
Yeah, I just I look at this one, and I
told you my issue is what the pros are seeing
is brock Purty is playing an MVP level, right, and
you know they they're two and two. None of that
is his fault. He's he's I mean, I guess you
could say the Vikings game, he didn't play great, but
overall he's just played amazing this season and all the

(31:34):
numbers back it up, like he easily is a top
three quarterback right now football, and another two might be
Jane Daniels and Sam Darnold, which is just crazy to think,
but that's just why this season's been. He's been playing
at such an elite level despite all the injuries to
this team. The only reason I'm coming around to Arizona
is because of the injuries to this forty nine ers team. Right, Like,

(31:58):
even kidd, I know he's been playing. He's not right,
Debo is not right. You know we already talk about
they lost Hardgrave up the middle, like that was their
number one run defender. It's just Kyler Man, Kyler Murray Chad,
He's just I'm fucking disgusted with the kid, right, even
going back watching that game, he did look he looks
so disinterested in that game in every way, and the

(32:18):
coaches made zero adjustments with Arizona. So it's like Okay,
they're they're they're weak. They're weaker at the coaching position,
they're weak at the QB position. And that's why this number,
to me makes sense. There's a reason this number is
so high despite all these injuries to this forty nine
ers team. So I'll bet it with you, but personally
I might end up on the seven forty nine ers.

(32:40):
I haven't put a penny on this game yet, but
it's like, if you feel strong about Arizona, I could
probably get there because this is a huge number in
this league. We see a time and time again, these
big these big numbers cover like these big spreads if
you have a comparable quarterback. If you're not the Patriots,
usually they cover these numbers. Right.

Speaker 4 (32:57):
They're able to keep these games close, especially with.

Speaker 2 (32:59):
These refs bull in the whistle all the time. So
it's hard for me to stay away from this one chat.
I want to be on Arizona with you. I just
I don't have the confidence that you have on it
right now.

Speaker 1 (33:09):
Your cat was up all night and it was, you know,
kicking things, and I feel like you're super tired and
I can bully you into Arizona right now.

Speaker 2 (33:20):
The other thing I will say, Jen Heat, I'm trying
to give you all these warnings, all these signs. It's
like turn around that end, no road ahead, the bridge
is out, and you're just like, we can make this jump,
we can make this jump.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
Come on, And then then I'll be like, why didn't
anybody tell me?

Speaker 4 (33:37):
Yeah? Exactly.

Speaker 1 (33:38):
The other thing I'll say is Trey McBride is going
to play in this game. He hasn't played a big
deal and that that to me, is a huge deal
for Kyler right as as as athletic as he is,
he has not been able to incorporate Marvin Harrison Junior
in any consistent way beyond the first quarter. And having
Trey McBride as his safety blanket, I do think makes

(34:01):
a bigger difference. I'm putting it on the list. I
think we're going to have after the show, We're going
to have a longer conversation, try to figure out which
ones are going to be the final five. We'll put
it in the contest. People can see that as soon
as we put in today.

Speaker 2 (34:14):
Now, if you're stick your flagging in, this is Chad's
this is when Chad's five, I'm not going to stop
you because like you said, it's a good number.

Speaker 4 (34:20):
It's seven and a half. I want to be there.

Speaker 2 (34:22):
I'm just the spidy senses are tingling, brother, they're just
tingling on this one.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
Yeah, but they're also tingling on another game. And I
gave in and and we're going to talk about it
right now. It is our Big Balls bet of the Week,
presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support, great game, start with great underwear,

(34:49):
and Tommy John makes the great assignment. We are undefeated
with our Big Balls bet of the week, including the
Chargers at seven and a half last week with no
offensive tackles, missing their best defensive player, a quarterback on
one leg playing against the greatest quarterback of his generation.

(35:11):
We can run it back with the Cardinals at seven
and a half. But this week the big Ball's better
the week Los Angeles Rams plus three hosting Green Bay.
This was your comment to me on Tuesday. I was
all over Green Bay. Your comment to me, don't get cocky.

Speaker 2 (35:31):
H don't get cocky, Chad. This is where they get you.
Don't get cocky.

Speaker 1 (35:37):
It was like you said it in a way that
was like so endearing but also made me feel like
our age gap was entirely reversed, Like you're the guy
in his fifties and I'm the guy in my thirties.
And that's how I talk to my younger son when
he thinks he looks extra good before going out, Like,
don't get too cocky, kid, Like you know, could come

(35:59):
back to haunt you. That's what it felt like. But
you were right. This line was at three. Three and
a half is now down to three massive pros, Joe's
different tier, tickets on the Packers, money on the Rams,
like all the stats we can get to them back
in the back in the Rams. Wise, guys clearly loved
it in the sharp calls, explain yourself.

Speaker 2 (36:22):
Yeah, and that was typical, Like I knew a really
smart group was going to take a really big position
on that RAMS team, And I was just my fear
with you, even if you like the Green Bay. I
was like, Okay, that's fine, you liking them, don't bet
it at a bad number. That three and a half
is gonna be gone. You're gonna be able to get
a three if you really want a Green Bay. It
was kind of my pushback, but yeah, personally I would

(36:45):
not bet Green Bay. This week, I'd stay away people.
This just feels like a little bit of a trap
from the sports books, and the professionals knew that right away,
so they came in grabbed all the three and a
halfs they could it could get.

Speaker 4 (36:59):
Back there, right.

Speaker 2 (36:59):
A couple of books are now minus one eighteen, minus
one twenty on the three for Green Bay. So you know,
if you want to wait until to try to get
the Rams a plus three and a half again, you can.
I think the three is what matters here, though. This
feels like a game that's either gonna be the Rams
win it or they lose by two points. Right like this,

(37:20):
this just seems like one of those games the professionals
know and the books know they got a little bit
of a trap here, And you're right when you dive
into numbers and you look at the matchup, this actually
isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team,
especially when you think about you know Williams.

Speaker 4 (37:34):
Karen Williams is the running back.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
He's probably been a top five back this season and
displayed all the injuries to that offensive line, still one
of the best run blocking schemes. You know. McVeigh just
knows how to coach, up, backup lineman. It's incredible. So
that's a good matchup for this team. I think that's
the way they're going to attack Green Bay and try
to keep Jordan Love off the field. And on the
flip side, yes, you can say Jordan Love gotten a

(37:56):
little bit of rhythmic into that game, but the Vikings
Rawson throwing anything at him right there were just simply
playing a prevent defense when they were up twenty one
points at that point. So I don't think he's right.
I do think he is a little hampered by not
being able to move in the pocket as fluent as
we're used to seeing Jordan Love do. Because he came
back quick from that injury. Right, it was supposed to
be four to six weeks. He came back in the

(38:19):
third week. That's that's a lot. So to me, I'm
glad you listened to it. I don't know if it
was the Luck rankings or our guy Stucky and Chris
talked you out of it, but this I knew you'd
come around, and this was just gonna be a typical
pros Joe's game and the pros we're gonna be all
over this Rams team. So this This might be the

(38:39):
last gasp of the old gunslinger on Stafford with this
Rams team if they don't win this one. I mean
you talked about he's something that's definitely gonna be a
trading moving piece and asset towards this end of this,
before the trade deadline, I should say, so, yeah, we
love the number. If you're like us, you love the
Rams and you somehow didn't heed my warning and you
didn't get to three and a half, I'd wait and

(39:01):
just hope, hope the public keeps coming on this.

Speaker 4 (39:03):
When you get it goes back up. So yeah, three.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
I don't mind it being our big balls bet because
I do think it's going to land right under it.
But yeah, for the people out there like to wait
and always want the best of the number, you can
just throw a little bit here and just wait and
hope you get the three and a half.

Speaker 1 (39:21):
Simon, Yes, sir, you convinced me of that game all
on your own. As soon as we were done talking
about it on Tuesday, I'm like, all right, it's coffe.

Speaker 2 (39:33):
You were coming in hot and confident on Green Bed.
I was like, very hot, toternal, you know what.

Speaker 1 (39:38):
I'm a man of principle. I am a man of principle,
but I don't have to be stubborn about my positions.

Speaker 2 (39:43):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (39:43):
I can be flexible if someone I think is very
smart comes in with data that is better than mine.
You turned me around, and by the end of our conversation,
I think I had gone I have flipped my position.
I had gone from hardcore packers to hardcore rams one
hundred percent.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Well, it's nice to see what we were right too,
because if that number would have gone up the four,
I would have had a lot of eggle on my
fucking face. I would have looked like a real jackass
telling people not to hit that. So luckily it did
come down to three, and they know that heavy, heavy,
professional money came in on that RAM side.

Speaker 1 (40:13):
You never look like a jackass, Simon. You are perfect
to me. You know who else is perfect? Our sponsor, Yeah,
Tommy John. I've talked about it so much, but I
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(40:33):
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(40:58):
percent at Tommy John slash Favorites. All right, look Dallas
at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's at two and a half. I will
say there are places where you can get Pittsburgh at
one and a half, But you want to talk about
a public side here, Simon, Dallas has all the tickets,
like eighty percent of the tickets right now. This Dallas team,

(41:22):
a bad defense that is thin, is now worse and
thinner without DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. I wonder what
Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.

Speaker 4 (41:31):
I just want to see your face. We win the
damn game.

Speaker 1 (41:35):
We are living Steelers defense we both believe is good
enough to neutralize Dak and CD Lamb. Brandon Cooks is
also out. This all depends on Arthur Smith trying to
make sure justin field isn't a hero. Just run the ball,
be very conservative, win the game.

Speaker 4 (41:56):
Straight up, win this game. B win this game.

Speaker 2 (42:00):
The biggest thing we talked about this is just a
mismatchup team strengths for other teams weaknesses, right, and the
biggest weakness again, we talk at Naisma about it. Why
we didn't like Dallas coming to the season. They had
one of the worst running back rooms in football. Now
we didn't know that they would also defensively one of
the worst teams against the run of football.

Speaker 4 (42:19):
They are.

Speaker 2 (42:20):
I mean, they are terrible against the run and now
you know two of their best defenders. I know they
haven't played like it this year, but they are.

Speaker 4 (42:28):
You just said it.

Speaker 2 (42:29):
Dextra Lawrence is out, Michael Parsons is gonna be out
for this game. Like, it just keeps adding up more
reasons to fade this team than the flip side. You know,
Pittsburgh does have some injuries to their running back room,
but you know, justin Field is running that read option
with Cordell Patterson. I think it's going to be just
as effective against this terrible run defense. Like, even if
they prepare for it, Arthur Smith always has another piece

(42:51):
to move the counter whatever teams have done against him,
like he's been to me incredible this this year.

Speaker 4 (42:57):
What he's done with Justin Fields, Like.

Speaker 2 (42:59):
You said it, our fear of Justin Fields is the
dumb turnovers, and he's kind of beating that out of him, right.
I know, obviously it popped up last week with him,
but that was like we said, he was gonna be
down by multiple points. He needed a force play trying
to overdo it. That's not where you want Justin Field.
You want him to be in rhythm, to stick to
the playbook, to be on script every now and then.

(43:19):
When he does go off script, it's not with his arm.
Hopefully it's gonna be with his either. It could be
with his arm and going deep, we don't mind that.
But it's really his running ability and that's something that
they can really tap into here against this banged up
Dallas team. So that matchup is a phenomenal defensively, I mean,
it doesn't get any better for.

Speaker 4 (43:37):
Pittsburgh, right.

Speaker 2 (43:38):
They have a rookie tackle going against TJ.

Speaker 3 (43:41):
Watt.

Speaker 4 (43:42):
This is terrible.

Speaker 2 (43:43):
So and again we think they're gonna get down and
they'll be forced to pass heavily because they can out
run the ball against this Pittsburgh team. Pittsburgh gonna have
them right where they want. They want to make teams
pass against him. That's their biggest strengths. So the fact
that you can get this at one and a half, Chad,
how do you not take that number? So I'm not shocked.
This is the public side, right people think after that

(44:05):
Pittsburgh team gets embarrassed, they lose, they see, you know,
Dallas is on extended rest. They look like they kind
of got back to their old ways against Giants, where
it's like, why I watch that Giants game. I saw
two really bad teams fighting it out right. I don't
know if you felt the same way. It's like, that's
what's so crazy about this Washington thing. Washington looks so
much more complete of a team right now than the
Eagles and the Cowboys. It's just I don't really see

(44:27):
what people are betting here with the Cowboys to have
confidence and taking them as a dog, other than you know,
maybe they feel good that it's Dack against Justin Fields
they're getting a plus two and a half number, But
that's just so basic, such a basic way to think
about this matchup here. So yeah, this I was gonna
not force you to make this one of our fives.
It's like, this is the favorite I really like. As
much as you know, I'm okay with betting Washington and

(44:50):
minus three. I have zero confidence in the way I
do about this Pittsburgh favorite. So I really love this
number to be our favorite in our contest.

Speaker 1 (44:58):
Yeah, I actually I've come around to it. I I
didn't feel strongly about Dallas, like we talked about it
on Sunday night and you immediately pushed back. Not in
a strong way, but you at least matchup wise, felt
like Steelers had an opportunity to win this game. And

(45:19):
now without Parsons and Lawrence, everything is exacerbated, like the
matchups are even more in the Steelers favor and the
way you would expect the game to play out. So yeah,
I love the Steelers here, have no problem with it.
Like playing Mike. I don't like playing Mike Tomlin as
a home favorite, but I do like I do like
playing Mike Tomlin off a loss where he can rally

(45:43):
this team a little bit.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
Get him ready to take the fail every series.

Speaker 1 (45:54):
So it feels like a good spot. And I do
think Mike Tomlin is just better than Mike McCarthy. So
I got no problem with the Steelers in this one.
I think you and I are one hundred percent aligned.

Speaker 4 (46:03):
All right, So those are those are four. We're probably
going to have inn.

Speaker 2 (46:06):
Well, who's number five?

Speaker 1 (46:08):
I don't know if we have four? I got, Well,
we'll talk about that. New Orleans and Kansas City. I'm
surprised this is split. Yeah, this was my exact decision.
We got to get in the foxhole. By the way,
we're kind of not in a foxhole yet.

Speaker 2 (46:22):
When dow Pittsburgh for a foxhole you just said, it's
the most public side of the week in the alf.

Speaker 1 (46:28):
Right, let's do the Steelers. Steelers were in the foxhole.

Speaker 4 (46:30):
Love it.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
Let's clid down into the foxhole. Beautiful. I was all
over New Orleans from the beginning. I betted at five
and a half. It got down, it got down to five.
I think it actually got down even lower, maybe even
to four and a half. Then it got that back up.
Now I'm a little worried, not because of the wise
guy stuff. It's a very very public dog, very public

(46:59):
the Saints.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
Yeah, yeah, I didn't know that. I think. I mean,
it does make sense though, Like I just who has
confidence in betting the Chiefs offense, where at least we
know exactly the identity of the Saints offense, right, And Okay,
they struggled against the Eagles, and you know, maybe people
are viewing them as a team that's just going to
be better indoors than they will be outdoors. And it's

(47:22):
the type of game where you know, the Chiefs wet
the field before the game, they do everything they can
to make the grass longer. It's a late Monday night game.
I get all that, And I wanted to easily say
the Saints team is going to be the spot Like
it's just the number feel is way too big for
a Chiefs offense that just lost the only real piece

(47:42):
to the offense that made any type of sense, right,
Rice was everything for them, Like, I think there are
big plays outside of Worthy. Obviously it was always going
to Rice on third down. That's always who Mahomes is
going to. It's like, okay, they lost him in Pacheco.
The identity of that offense has been gone. I mean,
it's not Travis Kelsey. This guy has not looked the
same all season. And Worthy is just so inconsistent, right,

(48:05):
He's one or two touches a game, and if they
don't work out, he's kind of.

Speaker 4 (48:10):
Held in check.

Speaker 2 (48:11):
So I don't really I'm trying to figure out what
the professionals are seeing here that that's given them such
confidence in this Chiefs team. And maybe it is just
simple as fading Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in this
spot in this primetime game.

Speaker 4 (48:23):
Like, I get it.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
The Chiefs have a massive coaching advantage between Spags and
Andy Reid, like they're gonna be able to get Theirs,
They'll be able to figure this out. But man, mahomes
playing terrible all of it. Chat, I just I can't
believe the pros. Like when I hear pros are on
the other side, I'm just like, what are you guys
seeing here? And like the all the reasoning, I get it,
but I just I just at my core, I just

(48:44):
cannot comprehend not taking the Saints here, especially a couple
of books hit plus six.

Speaker 4 (48:49):
On this Saints team. I grabbed it right away.

Speaker 2 (48:51):
It's just like, man, I can't believe all this love
for the Chief's team, and you know you saying this
is a huge public dog a little scary, but at
the same time, we're on the public side with Arizona
here as well, So it's like, you know, I think
the public has come around to these big dogs are covering.
Like usually maybe they wouldn't be on this side and
they would be on the favorite side, but the public dogs,

(49:14):
these big dogs have been covering. So that's the only
rational I can really think of, Chad. So, you know,
I don't love if this may be this will be
our fifth one, and I don't love having to wait
to Monday night to try to go four to one
or five and whatever it is. But it's a tough week,
Like this is a good number. We kind of like
might be backed into the corner and have to take

(49:34):
this number, especially if it's up to six and a
half in the contest.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
I think we're going to have to, and I think
I have one more number to put us over the
top here. Yeah, you know how much I love the
Luck rankings, and I know you like the Luck rankings too.
We don't bet them blindly, but they did go undefeated
last week the Luck rankings.

Speaker 2 (49:56):
Yeah, I think clearly ten and one on the season
or something crazy.

Speaker 1 (50:00):
It's crazy about really, So there is one side this
week that fits into the Luck Rankings criteria, it is
the New Orleans Saints, and it is a massive luck difference.
There is a difference of twenty eight spots between how

(50:23):
lucky the Chiefs have been how we got to bet then, Yeah,
unlucky teams with a luck difference of twenty eight or
more since we started doing the luck rankings twenty three,
twelve and one sixty five percent against the spread if
those teams are on the road, the unlucky team seventy

(50:47):
eight percent against the spread. That's New Orleans.

Speaker 4 (50:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (50:51):
The only thing that pissed me off when you told
me they're a big public dog. I'm shocked by that
because when I was talking to bookmakers, it was all
Chiefs money, especially with all the teasers and everything like that.

Speaker 4 (50:59):
But no, that's that's music to my ears. We're definitely
going to have them in there.

Speaker 1 (51:03):
So we'll sort of regroup when we get to the
end of the show and see if we can narrow
it down with the ones we want to put in. Yeah,
but I think we got a couple that we definitely
feel like we're strongly leaning towards turning good weekends into
great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. It

(51:27):
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(51:47):
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Speaker 2 (51:54):
Paid on the first half because they were both up their.

Speaker 1 (51:56):
First half because they both got up by seventeen.

Speaker 4 (51:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (51:59):
Bet three six five has that no sweat bet. We're
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(52:20):
Remember both games are eligible for the early payout promo,
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So you want to bet this betted at bet three
six five. Right, who do you want in the round robin?
There will come up payday Halla lu Yo wanna pay day.

Speaker 4 (52:43):
There will come.

Speaker 5 (52:44):
Up payday some day. Some day there, I will come
up pay day.

Speaker 1 (52:49):
Halla, lou Yo, wanna pay day?

Speaker 2 (52:51):
I will come up pay day some day. Okay?

Speaker 1 (52:57):
I mean Houston and the Rams obviously like them.

Speaker 2 (53:01):
You want to throw the Panthers in there against the Bears.

Speaker 3 (53:04):
I do.

Speaker 1 (53:05):
I like the number. I like it at how it'll
boost the odds a little bit.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
How do we not go Vegas against the rook Well,
I was thinking Cincy, Yeah, love Cincy.

Speaker 1 (53:17):
To me, it's Houston Rams, Panthers, Bengals, and then it's
either Raiders or Saints.

Speaker 2 (53:26):
Obviously I like the Saints because plus two hundred. But
once again, I'd rather just get it all and knocked
out before a Sunday show.

Speaker 4 (53:35):
So let's go Raiders, all right?

Speaker 1 (53:38):
The money line underdog round Robin last week, I think
we won three of the games. Houston Rams, Panthers, Cincy Raiders. Simon,
right now, tell me your biggest bets.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
Biggest bet for sure was the Rams three and a
half Bengals plus three. You know I'm gonna get there
on Houston. I'd just been waiting for that number to
keep going up, So I'm slightly invested right now in
the plus one and a half, not heavy, and then
obviously Pittsburgh and the Saints.

Speaker 4 (54:10):
I've just been betting all week.

Speaker 2 (54:12):
So once again, if that Saints number gets up to six,
I'm gonna be very tempted to make that one of
my bigger bets of the week.

Speaker 4 (54:19):
But it's it's a game. I can be patient because
it is the Monday night game.

Speaker 2 (54:22):
The hope is if the public does well, you know,
all their teasers, everything will be tied to that chief's
number on the Monday Night. That's just how people bet
their parlays. And I'll either get a six or six
and a half on that Saints number. So that's one
you can be patient with Pittsburgh. I've been grabbing anywhere
any book that has the one and a half. I've
been grabbing it when I can.

Speaker 1 (54:43):
Yeah, I actually bet it while we were talking. All right,
let's get to the last word with our good friend
Evan Abram's, senior director of research here at Action Network.
Can you please tell us some things that will justify
any decisions we've made today?

Speaker 2 (55:00):
The last word with Van Abrams, we're finished talking.

Speaker 5 (55:06):
I need to pull back the curtain a tiny bit
as well. So when we're setting up this segment, I'm
usually speaking with producer Matt Mitchell, trying to figure out
the games, the notes, trying to, you know, marry some
stuff with your picks. We have a bunch of Arizona
and San Francisco stuff. I mostly have to just throw
that out the window because I have no idea which
side we really like this. Since we're all over the place,
I'll just give you one piece of this.

Speaker 1 (55:25):
And say we like Arizona. We'll be happy with your
stats if you're like Arizona.

Speaker 5 (55:30):
It was funny because Matt did want me to set
up something here that's anti Arizona, so I'm just gonna
get it out of the way since we assumed you
were pro San Francisco. It's just a good note, so
let me throw it out there. A schedule note just
in this spot, Arizona's played three straight at home. They
now hit the road for the first time. I was
kind of surprised by this, but those teams forty five
percent ATS two hundred game sample and fifteen thirty two

(55:53):
and one ATS thirty two percent last five years, so
recently it's been absolutely terrible. I would have kind of assumed,
you know, players at home and families all that stuff.
Then you hit the road you kind of play well
complete opposite. So I found that kind of interesting. But
let's get into the real picks here, the real information,
and that is Cincinnati.

Speaker 4 (56:10):
This is probably.

Speaker 5 (56:11):
Pretty much the game of the week. And when you
look at the AFC North, it really doesn't matter the
team underdogs in the AFC North divisional games, cash Cow
forty five and twenty nine ats, sixty one percent since
twenty eighteen, best of any division. And this is really
the note. They are five hundred or better in seven
straight seasons twenty three and fourteen since twenty twenty one,

(56:31):
so really competitive almost all the time. And you take
the dog in these spots. Now you mentioned it earlier,
Lamar three points are less of a favorite underdog now
in the regular season, that's actually twenty four and five ats.
I know, absolutely absurd, but I think it's really important
to see the other side of this. So Burrow as
a dog of two plus eighteen and eight ats, and

(56:52):
he's twenty two and four in a six point t's
in that spot, so almost always close games when he's
a dog of over two points eighteen and four ats,
and this is one I thought was kind of important.
So Ravens are off this very emotional Sunday night football
bulldoze of Josh Allen. You would think all maybe letdown
spot teams after facing Buffalo. Since Allen's first season as
a full time starter in twenty nineteen, thirty three and

(57:15):
fifty three straight up thirty eight percent. Second worst on
the money line in all of football. The worst is
San Francisco after playing San Francisco after banging Buffalo people
not playing well, not really shocking, and I'll give you
one more here. We seem to be kind of all
over the Saints. So here's some interesting notes to kind
of look into. So Carr has struggled in his career

(57:36):
facing softer defenses, which kind of makes sense more points
against defenses allowing twenty one points per game or more.
He's actually thirty seven percent in almost one hundred games,
dead last of every quarterback in our database last twenty years. Luckily,
the Chiefs defense is actually isn't soft, right. They allow
eighteen points per game this year versus teams allowing fewer

(57:56):
than twenty one points per game. He is thirty five
and twenty one against the spread. Fifth best here are
the quarterbacks. He's behind Brady Breeze, Rogers and Peyton Manning.
So not a terrible list. And this, to me was
just unbelievable. So one final nugget on Casey. They've won
all four games this year by seven points or less.

(58:17):
Teams who have won by a touchdown or lesson four
straight just sixteen and twenty seven ats in their next
game thirty seven percent, and that drops another five percent
lower one favored by a field goal or Moore. So
it's the spot. It's scary taking them out of the
dome and bring them on the wet grass, as Simon
alluded to, which is a great note.

Speaker 1 (58:34):
But got to take the points. You know what, I've
never felt better, Simon. Thank you, Evan, you did a
great job. I think giving us a little bit of
a handrail on the roller coaster there to help so
we can try to make some better decisions, Simon, is
what I would say right now. Steelers yep. Saints got

(58:58):
gotta gotta since love it, Houston yep. And then I
think it comes down to Arizona, the Rams or the Panthers.
I know I feel strong about it.

Speaker 4 (59:12):
I put Rams above Houston.

Speaker 1 (59:16):
Okay, all right, So so then it comes down to Houston, Arizona.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
Houston Arizona.

Speaker 1 (59:24):
If we want to make for really good content, yeah,
we go with Arizona.

Speaker 2 (59:29):
I agree because I just I'm not there and you're
you're all in, which I totally get.

Speaker 1 (59:34):
All right, well, I'm excited to put those in after
the show.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
Is that? So?

Speaker 4 (59:38):
Is that where you're gonna do.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
You're gonna go with Arizona over Houston.

Speaker 1 (59:41):
Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna go. Uh yeah, I'm gonna go
Sincy Arizona rams Pittsburgh, New Orleans?

Speaker 3 (59:51):
Right?

Speaker 4 (59:52):
Love?

Speaker 3 (59:52):
It is that?

Speaker 2 (59:54):
Is that?

Speaker 1 (59:54):
Five? Sincey Arizona rams Pittsburgh, Ne Orleans. Yep, Yep, there
we go, brother, Another exciting week in the Favorites Podcast.
As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
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(01:00:15):
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(01:00:38):
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Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I We'll return with our
next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube
page on Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern. To recap NFL
Week five, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you

(01:01:00):
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