October 17, 2024 • 54 mins
The Chiefs and the 49ers are the game of the week in the NFL, as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they discuss a massive Detroit Lions matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, give some praise to the Tampa Bay Bucs, give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.
Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com
We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John remote studio here in my hotel room,
and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
(00:28):
my compadre might BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Ero.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Simon, Chad, you picked a great time head out west.
It is cold on the East coast.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
You know what, Simon.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Since I've been in La it has been gray and
sixty five degrees.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
So I'm struggling.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
It is not you know, a bowl of cherries out
here with my view of the ocean, just hobnobbin with
celabs and going to fancy places for dinner. I am
struggling right now, Okay. I mean I'm sitting in a
hotel room. I can barely control the ac It's not easy.
I would like a little bit of sympathy for myself.
(01:10):
Today is our NFL Week seven Best Bets episode, where
Simon and I narrow down our five picks in the
Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contests
presented by BET three sixty five. Sign up now Favorites
dot Action network dot com. We will also get into
the Foxhole, give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bet
of the Week, discuss Simon's bigg As Bets, ore Boosted
(01:32):
money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
much more. Bets are rolling in, the lines are moving,
decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss
Colin Coward likes.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
To say there's a sea of money out there.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars, place a bet for five dollar to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty
(02:08):
five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older.
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions
apply all right, as always on Thursdays during the season,
(02:28):
we like to hear how the wise guys are responding
to our Tuesday conversation. We are that influential. We know
the lines are moving based on what we say, and
then the pros must tell us what they think of
our opinion. Simon, let's do Shreff calls.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Rain telephone range.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Somebody said maybe.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
One should do man.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Yeah, we'll start right away. The game we like. We
like Cleveland. They got to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
It's back down to five and a half, and a
lot of books should have known this was gonna come
back down, but no one thought of Mark Cooper was
worth a real point to the spread. So that was
a bad overreaction by the books. The professionals come in,
and I know played professionals. I still like them at
five and a half. So as long as you can
still find the six, which I would shop around for,
I think that's that's where the pros kind of have
(03:21):
broken on that one. So again, that's a game we're
gonna dive into pretty.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Heavy coming up here.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Surprisingly a game I flipped on a lot of pros,
a lot of guys. I talked to the sharp guys.
They love green Bay. They love green Bay minus two
and a half. So I know, I like, I'd like
to Houston. I like Houston a plus three. I'm probably
gonna avoid it, either take green Bay to two and
a half or just avoid it altogether. It just seems
like most of the guys I talk do like the
(03:47):
green Bay side. The reason seems pretty sound. I think
a lot of their thinking is the same with you.
It's like, this number should probably be three to three
and a half. You're getting two and a half because
there's so much respect and love the general public right now.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
To CJ, the value definitely looks like it is on
green Bay.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
There.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
So a game I was pretty wrong about. A game
we nailed that the number had moved too much. The
Lions that was plus two and a half. Shout out
to anyone that does early entries like I do in
our contest. You were able to get the Lions two
and a half. That was nice to I did. I
just put my picks and usually right when we get
done our show on Tuesdays, I know our fans want
(04:26):
us to do Thursdays. So that's why I didn't even.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Hit chat up.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
I was like, we can't put them these in any way.
But I knew that Detroit number was gonna move. It
was just insane that had gone up to two and
a half that came crashing back down at one and
a half. So it's nice to know we're on the
same side because I was scared. I was like, who's
moving all this Minnesota money? And I think me and
you talk about it all the time, like there's professional
groups who they'll come in small on one side, the
(04:52):
books will react thinking it's professional money taking that side,
and then when they get the number they want, that's
when they come in heavy. And that was the class
of Detroit case. So even when I open up the app,
I'm sure you've seen it's like ninety percent of the
money right now is on this Detroit team. So yes,
that's that's a public and professional play. There a games,
we'll go the ones that people are split on. I
(05:13):
really like the Giants plus three and a half. I
talked to playing professionals who had my same view of
if this gets a two and a half, how do
you not take the Eagles, And a couple of them
are just taking them at three. They don't think it's
ever going to get to two and a half. So
if you like the Eagles, go grab the minus three.
I just don't think it's ever going to get down
at two and a half. I don't think there's enough
professional money coming in, especially the unknown with neighbors. We've
(05:36):
just seen that number.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Now and now Andrew Thomas, like Andrew Thomas, is massive,
literally massive, but also a massive loss for the Giants
a game.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I love Chiefs pretty split professionals.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
I like the forty nine ers. There's pros like me
that love the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
You can talk a nise them about how this Chiefs
team's got so many injuries while the forty niners are
getting healthier at this point, they have the offensive weapons.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
YadA, yadaya.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
At the end of the day, it's my homes of
the dog, like you just, I'm not gonna budget my
stance on taking my homes the dog. It's just a
long term profitable spot to take this guy. He just
always covers in these type of scenarios. So that's been
a lot of discourse on that one. That one really split, yeah,
between the professionals. In the last one a game we
touched on a little bit again, another game I got
(06:22):
lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday, Jets minus
one and a half. It's now moved up to two
and a half. Not shocking at all because we talked
about it. For Russell Wilson was going to become the starter.
This was gonna keep moving against his Pittsburgh team. It's
looking more and more like that's gonna happen here. And
the last one is a game we talked about. We
already knew this was a professional side. But it's the Bucks, right.
(06:45):
The Bucks number got up to four and a half Sunday,
it's been bet down to three and a half. Some
books even touched three, and then it went back up
to three and a half. I think that's where it
should be, right And I was hoping to get more
info on Mike Evans.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Unfortunately haven't I heard much.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I know it's a soft tinger soft tissue injury that
you know he might miss the game, but the line
doesn't reflect that right now. So still very confident in
our books bet but that's that's very public. Ravens heavy
professionals are on this Buccaneers team.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Yeah, I've been checking injury reports from Mike Evans. I
haven't seen anything yet, but look, we're going to get
into all these games.
Speaker 5 (07:25):
I think.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
I think some of the games that you mentioned are
like very interesting. Obviously the Steelers Jets, Obviously, the Chiefs
and Niners. Those are marquee matchups from a betting perspective.
Short numbers going to be a lot of opinions. We
talked about the public all season long, how it had
been a dreadful year for the public this season so far,
(07:48):
thirty eight, forty nine and three forty three percent against
the spread this season.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Now, as we said through five weeks, that.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Was the worst start ever the past twenty years. Now
it's the four worse start through six weeks because the
public went ten to three and one last week. So
you were so pressing it last week, right, like you said,
the public is due. We did add more daily, more
chalky picks than normal to our Phase fives.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Those were the games we actually won.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
So the question will be how aggressively are we leaning
into the fading the public this week. How much will
that regression that we expect factor into impacting the games
we like the first game we touched on it on Tuesday,
you didn't mention it into sharp calls, and you and
I have not discussed it at all since then. But
(08:42):
I did put Miami and Indy back in there because
we leaned Dolphins three and a half.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
It's now three. It's come down.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
I think it's come down because a lot of people,
as soon as Anthony Richardson was it was indicated that
he would likely be the starter, people started betting on
the Dolphins. We didn't think it would be in our
top five. I just left it on the list because
there is such a pro Joe discrepancy with the money
on the Dolphins and the tickets on the Colts. Do
(09:13):
you have any opinion on this game that you feel
more strongly about it because Anthony Richardson is now expected
to be the starter.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
No, it's just a game I'm staying away from. It's
like there's a plenty of ugly dogs this week, and
then there's some dogs that aren't that ugly. That's like,
I'd rather lose six figures on Detroit or the Chiefs
than fucking with this Miami team again. It's like, I
can't be bothered with putting a lot of money on
this one. And I'm hoping you weren't going to force
me into putting this in the contest, because you're right,
(09:43):
the pros liked this spot for Miami.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
But it's kind of the same thing for last week.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
These guys came in heavi as shit, this group on
the Tennessee Tids against the Colts because.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
We all agree the Colts have a really bad.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Defense and they have some questionable weapons on all offense,
and you know, no Jonathan Taylor, Pittman's banged up. Like
there's a lot to be negative about this Colts team,
and I get why other professionals call on the other
side of it.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
It's just I just can't do it. I can't.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I can't put heavy money on this Miami team right now.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
All right, that's fine.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Like we've been burned, uh uh, Like I'm still a
little bit hungover from that Jets loss and like that
Giants loss. So we're gonna have plenty of bad quarterbacks
to bet on and play of ugly games to bet on.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
We don't need to force one.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
Yeah, just get and find better numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Right, Like it's three now most books, like you kind
of missed the three and a half right on Miami,
Like I wouldn't just take the three, I'd try to
get the.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Fret and a half Seattle in Atlanta. We leaned Atlanta
when it was two and a half, it's now three.
I don't think you know, like all the matchup, all
the breakdowns, what's interesting to me? Make me one Atlanta
even more. The public loves loves loves Seattle, and even
(11:06):
after all that, the line has still moved from two
and a half to three. Is there anything that says
we're considering Atlanta because at this point it's such a
public fade, or do we think Seattle is healthier. They're
coming off a bye. Atlanta is getting so lucky. They
(11:27):
could easily be zero to six, one and five, two
and three, whatever it is. Instead they are where they
are because they've really gotten lucky, including by the way
that Panthers game, which was much much closer than the
score indicates.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Yeah, this is the game that we talked about. I
just let them never dictate my pick.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
I took Atlanta in MYCE twon and a half, and
I said if it gets up to three and a
half on Seahawks, if I hadn't made a bet yet,
I would take that number.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
Like this just screams a game where.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
The final whoever's the ball lasts, is going to win
this byfield goal, right Like, I don't have confidence right
now in either, but I have more confidence in this
Atlanta defense in Seattle. It just Seattle's defense has just
been so bad for so many weeks in a row.
Anytime they play a good offense, they just get rolled
right now, And I mean, we both agree Atlanta is
a really good offense right now, Like it's it's it's hummy.
(12:16):
Even though they have injuries to the offensive line, they
really haven't lost the beat. So I do I like
the matchup for Atlanta. I'd still take them with minus
two and a half. But you're right, it's it's gonna
get to a point where it's like, you know, if
it's three and a half, it's it's gonna be tempting
to take Seattle. That's it's gonna be a nice value
on a back door.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
I met a guy last night who's an investor, and
he like, that's what he does for a living, right,
And we were talking about betting, and he was talking
about how minuscule the margin of error is when you
are making a bet and going from two and a
(12:57):
half to three to three and a half, and the
value that people find at three and a half versus
the value that people find at two and a half.
It truly is when you're betting, unlike anything else in
equity markets, because.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
The band of sort of.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Miscalculation is so much bigger than trying to nail a
half a point when betting on a game, like to
see someone whose livelihood is in the investment space thinking
about the narrow margins and betting, and here we are
talking about three and a half like one side, two
and a half like the other. It's an extra point,
(13:44):
you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
It's just because we've seen it all though. That's why
we jogged last week. We were freaking out about that
Green Bay half a point and it's like didn't even
matter in any which way. And that's just because me
and you have been around long enough where it's like
sometimes just half a points are a big deal and
they do matter, and we try not to react to it.
But yeah, I told you I'm a big believer in Yeska,
(14:08):
the best of the number is important, but it's also
like you just want to be on the right side,
so I try not to let it always dictate us
where It's like, if we like a side, like I
just said, there were a bunch of good numbers, mean
you could have locked it on Tuesday, But we can't
do that to the fans of the show, right. That's
why I even bother texting. People want to listen here
hear us go through our picks today and make this pick.
So how would I help anyone on the show if
(14:29):
I'm telling you, well, I already got Detroit two and
a half, so no, no bet for me. I already
got the good, best number. I'm on to the next one,
so it does matter. But at the same time, it's like,
if I thought Detroit this number was gonna come down
to the two, I wouldn't give it out. But it's like, no,
I think you still have a lot of value on
Detroit at plus one and a half, so I still
have no issue taking that number.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
As Scooch one said, the right side is the winning side.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Yeah, yeah, that's what it comes to Bay.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
As Milman once said, Green Bay feels like the side
here at two and a half, and Chad Millman is
proud of himself.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Literally, the sharps agree with what Milman is saying. It's
like he's a professional, you know what. He just doesn't
get appreciated the way that he should for his understanding
of the sports betting markets.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Green Bay minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
There are a lot of books that have it at
three Houston, but we're talking about that three six five.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
It's at two and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Houston is the public dog. There's so much public love
for Houston right now. It definitely makes me like green
Bay even more. Now that we've gotten, you know, some
confirmation from my fellow sharps, I feel even better about it.
You're obviously not feeling great about it. You might even
feel like you're being bullied into it.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
No, I agree with them that that's probably the right number.
I just still have major questions about this green Bay team.
They're so dependent will be on turnovers, Like that's the
only thing I can think of, is like, Okay, maybe
they'll get the young kid on the road here and
get him the turnover because you're right, like the splits
are different between him and home and him on the road.
Like you said, it's it's all about the number at
(16:13):
the end of the day, and it's like, okay, two
and a half, that's the good number. I trust the
guys who are saying that, I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
All right, Simon, I can't believe what I'm about to say.
I'm in a hotel, so I can't go crazy.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
Why not? You'll never be there ever again.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
You never know. It is time four hour Big Ball
Better the Week.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
and Tommy John makes the greatest My friend sack up
because we are going with Cincinnati at Cleveland and we
are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six. You mentioned
(16:57):
it in the sharp calls This line god way too aggressive.
It got up to six and a half while we
were doing the show on Tuesday as Amari Cooper was traded.
We know we don't want to bet to Sean Watson,
but this one is like a big, fat, hanging curveball
that is tempting us, and we are either going to
(17:19):
flail and look terrible and swing so hard we hurt
our back and fall to our knees. Or we are
hitting this one so freaking far out of the park
that we are going to look like the courageous big
balls betters that we are.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yeah, I wish it was still six and a half, right,
that was really nice. That was a nice gift by
the sports books there moving that.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
By a fool.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
It was a minute like that. Everyone you know it
wasn't it. It's like young love. It just can't last.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
I mean I saw a couple of books touch seven,
so it got up there like they were obviously panic
moving that number because so much money was flooding, but
terrible move. And we talked about like this is a
nice matchup defensively for Cleveland against this you know Cincinnati
offense that obviously they want to push the ball through
(18:15):
the air. I don't know if I'll be able to
do that against Cleveland here. And then on the flip side,
this should be a get right game. Finally, for Watson,
this is one of the worst defenses he's played this season.
He knows he's got to hear the noise right the
I mean, they just trade his number one receiver. This
team is basically just saying to him like we're semi
giving up on the season here. You know, I love
desperate teams in these type of scenarios. So we talked
(18:37):
about we think we're getting a free point and a
half of points just because of what happened last week,
because it's the pre because of the Brown. You can
probably throw another point in there, right, this probably should
be only three three and a half in a divisional
game like this is so yeah, a ton of free
points of value here. We are betting on one of
the worst teams in football and easily the worst quarterback
right now in football. Right, if you just look at
(18:57):
the numbers, it's no fun, always scary. Gotta hold your nose,
trust the number, and take the number here with Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Yeah, Also, Cleveland's getting better, right, Their offensive line is
getting a little bit healthier.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Jack Conklin is back.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
That's a goody.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
That's that's a big deal. Nick Chubb is finally going
to be back. That's a big deal. There are some
pieces here that I think we'll make Deshaun Watson look
a little bit better. I don't know if he'll play better,
but maybe he's not staring at the rush right in
front of him immediately and then taking off like maybe
(19:34):
he will feel a little bit more confident, maybe they
will run the ball a little bit more effectively. So
there is an opportunity here to pounce on the Browns
in a in a big division rival game.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
And so.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
You know, like.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
We have to fade the public when they are coming
in on the Bengal as such a big road favorite,
as heavily as they are, it's we gotta do it.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, and just a reaction too, Like, Okay, I say
the Giants do cover that three? Is this number really
this high?
Speaker 4 (20:12):
Still? I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
So there's a lot of things right now where it
feels like it's a reaction. We're getting really good value
on this Cleveland team. And yeah, the like I said,
matchups defensively and offensively. This is as good as it
gets for this Cleveland team.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Our sponsor, Simon Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear
I've ever worn. It's what makes us comfortable making a
big Balls bet of the Week on the Cleveland Browns.
The underwear has changed my life. The shirts have changed
my life. The pajama bottoms have changed my life. When
you're truly comfortable, you can bet better if you love
(20:47):
Simon and I if you love this show, you love
Tommy John. Get twenty five percent off your first order
right now at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Save
twenty five percent to Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
It's all right.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Look, we've talked about Detroit and Minnesota. We wanted more
time to research this. On Tuesday, as we were doing that,
the line pushed up to two and a half. Simon,
like you said, immediately got some buyback. I think it's
interesting you should explain a little bit more like the
scenario that you're talking about, and you mentioned about how
professional betters manipulate the lines, because it's worth an extra
(21:22):
thirty second explanation because a lot of people don't understand it.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So explain that a little bit.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
You know, we talk all the time. Two has become
a very key number.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
And you saw a playout this week with this Vikings team,
so you know, a lot of books open them minus
one Sunday night, professional money comes in on the Vikings.
They get up to two, a little bit more money, right,
These professionals keep keep betting it. So again it's not
big money. It's like a thousand dollars, that's how much
these books will take on individual bets Sunday and Monday,
(21:51):
unless you really know them, maybe you get ten thousand,
but they'll come in put another couple of thousand on
it on Tuesday, move it a little more, and the
books will finally move it across that key number of
two and a half. And then basically, you know, it
depends on what they runners you have, but simultaneously you'll
hit multiple books at the same time get to two
and a half before all the books move it. Because basically,
(22:13):
I mean the truth is a lot of these books
they're moving their number off air like professional betters aren't hitting.
I mean, I'm not trying to call it these different books,
but there's some books that like they ban you instantly,
I mean you are instantly banned, and they don't take
big bets, especially from runners, professional betters, all that noise.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
They'll just move their number based off what other.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Books are moving their numbers, right, they're not even moving
off other people's bets. So yeah, the books that can't
get the professional money, they know right away that they
kind of fell into a little bit of a trap
and that they might have moved the number too much.
And you know, we talked about right, losing the number
one dandom football or number two. I guess behind TJ.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Watt A.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Hutchinson should move the number. But did they move it
too much? I think that's what the book did, right
They they thought that, you know, they're getting ahead of it.
The professionals were agreeing with them, they were getting a
good movement here, and it kind of came back on
them where It's like, I think a lot of people
like us are just really skeptical of this Vikings team still.
And on the flip side, it's how I mean, I've
(23:17):
never been more confident in this Lion's offense. I mean
they've just put up back to back forty point games,
like it's all clicking right now. And you know, even
if their defense suffers here, I don't know how that
affects their offense. Like they just they are full blown
running down your throat and if that doesn't work, they're
they're gonna be able to move with through there.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
I mean, that's just how dominant this team is right now.
So I haven't waivered.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I still like them despite them being probably the most
public dog right I think they're getting all the money,
all the bets right now in Detroit and me and
you talked about it. I just don't think the books
have caught up to them. And you know, my mind,
this is just a little bit too much respect to
a Vikings team that not that their wins have been fluky,
(24:01):
but a lot of things early in the season went
their way with a lot of their games between the
turnovers and how well Brian Flores has had this defensive
play and then you know Sam Darnold, like that was
his first bad game of the year, was that game
in England, and you know, maybe he got it right
and during this bye week, but okay, you just face
(24:22):
the Jets defense. I mean, you think are pretty good,
but I think overall the Lions defense has probably been
better this year. I don't think it's gonna get any
easier for him trying to pass the ball downfield against
the Detroit defense.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
So one thing I want to clear up for people
is professional better is getting one thousand dollars down early
in the week. If a professional better gets a thousand
dollars down on a game early in the week, sometimes
that is the equivalent of that same better getting ten, twenty,
thirty thousand or more later in the week.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Because bookmakers.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
You say they're sort of moving on air, That basically
means bookmakers are just moving the number without any BET's
coming in. They're responding to what they're seeing from other
operators and assuming those operators who might be more inclined
to take professional Better's money are getting money, and so
everyone's moving it why lines all moved the same time.
But professional book book makers also they book on faces,
(25:17):
and so if Simon walks in or someone else walks
in that they know as a professional Better, even if
they're taking up what's called a nickel bet five hundred
dollars or a dime one thousand dollars, they're going to
move that number based on who the better is, not
on the money taken. And so that's why the money
amount doesn't really matter at that point in the season,
(25:38):
at that point of the week, because it's about the
better who's making the bet, and that's how the line
can get manipulated or how the line can move the
other way.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
As for the Lions.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
Co signed to everything, we have felt this for a
couple of weeks. Their offensive line is so dominant and
there is definitely a change in the play calling to
be more physical, to be more run focused, to have
Jared Goff play more within the system when he's amazing,
(26:12):
And you're right, this doesn't impact the defense. The worst
unit on the field will be the Vikings offense. And
so how much will a diminished Vikings defense Lions defense
have to overperform against a Vikings offense that is really
middle of the road, right, And so now you've got
a number one Vikings defense going against a dominant Lions offense.
(26:37):
But the offensive line is so good, will it be
able to control the Vikings pass rush which is their
strength because Brian Flores is so good at devising different
blitz schemes.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
So uh yeah, we're.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
They are a huge public dog. I hate it, but
Dan Campbell is great against the spread. Dan Campbell is
great as an underdog and no teams. I got this
from Ray Bron listening to the six pack five and
no teams at home forty four percent against the spread
the past two decades. And then this was great from
raybon You know I love ref stats. Clay Martin is
(27:15):
the ref road underdogs with Clay Martin seventy against the spread.
So we're going with the Lions. They'll be in the
contest yeah.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
And one thing I'll say really quick though, when you
talked about better's getting their bets down, I talked.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
About that COVID.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
I mean, as horrible as it was, obviously for many
reasons for betters, it's been great because you can wear
masks now in these casinos and that's been a game
changer for a lot of people. And I mean me
and Chad talked about it ages ago, Like when I
go to the books, I go to work when everyone
goes to sleep, like when the main pit bosses leave,
that's my time to shine, right when the secondary unit's
(27:53):
in there at night. And Chad knows. I mean, I
talk about the tricks of the trade. You act drunk
with a mask on, you go in there, you act sloppy,
like you know what you're doing. You're just throwing money
around on stupid bets. I've never in my entire life
had anyone say no on a bet after midnight when
I have a mask on, acting like I'm a little intoxicated.
But if you go in midday when the books are empty,
(28:15):
no mask on, and you're asking to put ten k
down on, you know the browns, Someone's gonna come down
and talk to you. But if you do that at
three in the morning, no one's come down to talk
to you. They're gonna be like, what an idiot? Yeah,
well happy they take this guy's money on this Browns bet.
So definitely, if you're someone that's ever been banned or whatever,
(28:36):
they can't stop you from going in there. And once
they take your bet, they've taken it. They're going to
pay you out no matter what. And they'll just give
you the same speech they give me every time, which is, oh,
did you know you were a banned here? You're not
supposed to betting here, and you just oh, I didn't realize.
And that's how it is. So they cannot let you in.
It's a private business. Once you're in, you make the bets,
they've taken the action, they have to pay you out.
(28:57):
So that's just something to keep in mind.
Speaker 4 (28:58):
People.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
You don't even if if you are banned from a book,
that can't stop you from going until they catch you.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
At ten am, the ticket taker turns around and gives
it a quick approval approval please.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
One more stat short home favorites in the division of
three points or less forty five percent against the spread
the past twenty years, forty two percent since twenty twenty.
I put Carolina Washington in here. Washington a point favorite.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Again.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Panthers are the play every metric, every trend. It also
has bet the Panthers. We will not be putting this contest.
I just want that on the record.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Carry on, Yeah, carry on the Jenn Daniels commandors.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
They have some horrid regression coming. I think they're nine
for nine on fourth downs this year.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
It's just it's a Simon, We're not even We've said
all we have to say about the Panthers. We have,
We've given the people our opinion. We're not going to
torture anybody. We've already given the Browns. Let's move on
Las Vegas at the Los Angeles Raiders. This number has
moved a full point since you, Pegg did as Simon
says on Sunday, and like to me, this was about
(30:05):
getting the best of the number when you said it,
and you were right. All the money and all the
tickets on the Rams. I do want to say, like,
I don't feel strong that we're going to put in
the contest. I do lean Raiders at six and a half.
I do think the score last week was so lopsided
for so many regressible reasons on the part of the
(30:26):
Steelers that I do think you're getting a little bit
more value on the Raiders then probably is warranted giving
the Rams situation, I.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
Agree with you, we'll take them.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
But my fears of all the teams right now that
I've watched on film, there are few teams that look
like they quit in certain games. The Raiders have like
two games this year they look like they've quit on
the games. And there's not like games are getting blown out.
It's like pretty close games and they just kind of
give up in the second half. So I'm with agreements
like this number is a good number. You should take
(30:59):
this on the Raiders here, But man, it's just so
bad and so negative this Raiders team. I feel more
comfortable if I see them actually got the gate and
win one of these games and get a cover here.
It's just hard to back them right now. It just
feels like everything's so negative surrounding this team.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
Game of the week, Game of the season, Super Bowl
rematch Kansas City at San Francisco. San Francisco is a
one point favorite, your assigmon says on Tuesday when this
was at one and a half take the Chiefs, And honestly,
this line had not moved until I think late Wednesday
night early this morning, going back down from one and
(31:35):
a half to one. And the Chiefs are a massive
public dog. So the fact the line had barely moved
closer to pick says what I think. What you indicated
at the top of the show with sharp calls is
that the books might be getting a lot of professional
money on San Francisco. So I know we want to
(31:57):
be on the Chiefs, and I feel the same am
exact way I did before the Super Bowl last year.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
The Niners roster is better, The Niners.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Have a better team. The Chiefs could easily be two
and three. Listening to Stockey on the Action Network podcast,
he made great points. Isaiah Likely's toe could have been
a loss when his toe was out of bounds on
that game tying catch for the Ravens. In Week one,
(32:27):
there was a PI call on a desperate heave by
Patrick Mahomes in a game that the Chiefs ultimately beat
the Bengals, when the Bengals never should have let the
Chiefs in that game. They had a missed PI call
when they were playing the Falcons that cost the Falcons
the game. Like they have a lot of issues, right,
(32:47):
no Pacheco, no rashe Rice. They're not playing great, They're
not moving the ball down the field. It's like, this
is the heart versus argument. Your brain says you got
to take the Niners. Your heart is saying, who the
fuck bets against Patrick Mahomes isn't underdoge?
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (33:09):
I think we all agree though that this fort Niners
team is better and they had better weapons and everything
like that. But me and you earn a total agreement
that went it's in the fourth quarter. That's where the
Chiefs get you. And if they can just keep this close,
which I think they'll be able to because we've seen
it this year. The forty nine Ers just haven't been
putting teams away and that's kind of been there kryptonite
this year. So we totally understand all the injuries that
(33:31):
the Chiefs teams had, and we all knew that this
would probably be a more public dog, right just because
they are five and zero and Mahomes, you know, does
usually cover these games. And I talked me and you
joked about it. It's like, how do you not put
them in Detroit? And a teaser like again, both them
across seven and a half when they are both plus
one and a half, Like that's that's too good to
be true. So all of this makes sense, but at
(33:56):
the end of the day, it's just you said it.
It's like, we can't not take my home here. It's
just if he has the ball, he's down by three
in the fourth quarter, I think it we're at least
going to overtime, if not winning this game out right
at the end. And you cannot say the same with
Purdy and this forty nine ers offense. I just you know,
as well as he's played, it just feels like it's
(34:17):
way too much on his shoulders right now and he's
eventually to get caught. We need to play against a
really good defense, and that's what we have here, right,
a really good defense.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
So yeah, the Chiefs running three tight end sets and
trying to make it.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Work right now because they don't have any receivers, it's
a little daunting to bet on it. But having Mahomes
out plus number it kind of eases the pain a
little bit. So not going to overreact to it too much.
Just take the plus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
I mean, do we really think this ends up in
our contest. I'm not as.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
Convinced as he right now about the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yeah, it has to end at some point. Patrick Mahomes
being able to do this and this team this year
specifically not having the talent, not having the depth, being
able to stay in these games and getting the lucky
breaks they're getting, Like, Patrick Mahomes, getting you in the
position to win the game or tie the game is
(35:11):
one thing. Getting all the lucky breaks that they have
been getting is entirely different. Like, how can it keep happening?
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Cause if you're really good, you put in the work,
you put yourself in the right scenarios, you make your
own luck.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
Chat have you not learned that in life?
Speaker 3 (35:27):
So you could say that, but he's like, becomes the teacher.
Speaker 4 (35:31):
You've learned nothing. You learn nothing from last year's playoffs.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
They literally had the hardest road in NFL history to
make it to the Super Bowl last year, and they
fucking did it somehow, and they took down an even
better forty nine ers.
Speaker 4 (35:44):
Team than what we have here right now.
Speaker 2 (35:45):
So I'm with you, like there's a reason you should
be nervous about this, But at the same time, it's
like you just have to trust the number and trust
Mahomes like he's just long term as a dog, he's
going to be profitable for us for our entire lives.
So yeah, if we don't this one all right, that sucks,
but we know long term he's gonna make us money
betting him in this exact spot.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I mean, I think we're gonna have about six games
we want to put in and this one is going
to be on the fence. I really believe that New
York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are now two
point dogs. It is ticked up since the DeVante Adams news,
but really the real reason here is because of Russell
Wilson practicing with the first team and Adam schefter saying
that all signs are trending towards Russell Wilson starting, which
(36:30):
clearly is not the right decision. But this is what
makes the ticket and money split so interesting. The ticket's
slightly more on the Steelers, the money decidedly on the Jets.
As you said, the pros are on the Jets. Like
I feel actually okay with this In the contest, the
things that worry me are the line flipping from Steelers
(36:54):
to Jets. We know that historically when that happens since
twenty nineteen, the team that it flipped towards that is
not the favorite forty two percent against the spread. Tomlin
is a home dog, the best coach as a home
dog the past twenty years a generation.
Speaker 4 (37:10):
Loo's the greatest of all time.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Look at your work, But look they're missing.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
The Steelers are missing their center, Zach Frasier, top five
center according to Pro Football Focus. They're missing their guard,
James Daniels, top guard according to Pro Football Focus. So
there are like factors here beyond Russell Wilson that make
us lean Jets.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
We all talk too much. Sharp dudes, can just see it.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Yeah, but you're right, the number is moving a lot,
like I wouldn't mind locking this sin hopefully again one
and a half in our contest, because it is going
up to two and a half of most.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
Books at this point.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
And yep, you know, it looks like I'll probably hit
three by kickoff because it's going to be such a
heavily publicly back game the Jets at this point. I
agree with the line movement, though, I when you talk
about I just I think Russell Wilson's bad and I
don't think it's gonna work out well for him. And
against a really good defensive front the Jets that yeah,
they sugar against their run, but they're pretty damn good against.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
The pass, and you know, and their strength is their
defensive tackles. And the Steelers' weakness right now is in
fact they're missing. They're two of the best interior alignment
in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
So it's just again, the lines were even so much.
I just want to grab it now because I think
there is still value. But you're right, it's like like
you're nervous about that Chiefs game. This makes me nervous
because it's like we're betting on one of the most
defunctional franchises as a favorite that has a ton of
drama going against a Tomlin team and what you're talking about,
(38:42):
it's like a raw ra spot pretty much. It's especially
if it hits three. It really is so a little
nerve wracking. But again, this is really a fade on
Russell Wilson. I just I think they're gonna put him
in there, he'll get demolished and then next week we
see Justin Fields once again. I just again, I don't
know why they're doing it. It's so bizarre. He's gotten
it to foreign too, and he's just he's looked so
(39:04):
well run the ball, and I know he hasn't been
the best passer, but you need a running quarterback, especially
behind such a bad offensive line. So I'm hoping here
we're taking advantage of a good number against a team
that's in transition right now, and it's Pittsburgh team, a.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Game that we both like, we can agree. I feel
good it'll be in the contest. Tampa Bay plus three
and a half. This was my exact decision on Tuesday.
I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked secondary
twenty first in the league in pass coverage giving up
two hundred and seventy five passing yards per game. By
(39:37):
the way, that's thirty first in the league, just just
ahead of the Jaguars. I like Videveya as an obstacle
for the Reson. He is the key Raven's rushing game.
Like that's I think that's really important. The things that
worry mere are the things that look not everything is
a clear decision, right, These are all going to be
fifty five to sixty percent decisions. We knowledge betting against
(40:02):
Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not gonna be any
more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting
against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like it just
what happens, and like it's infuriating because of his mobility
and because of his record against the NFC. And of
course we were about Baker doing Baker things, but this
(40:24):
is a pro Joe split.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
I'm sticking with the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
Yeah, And it's really like you said, it's it's all
about vit to Vey. If he can stop this whole
Derek Henry run, that's the key. Like he's been so
incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a
big run, it feels like he gets it for him.
And he's been flipped. He's flipped a couple of games,
it seems like this season for this team.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
So that's the big one.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
And then, like you've talked about it, if Mike Evans
is back him and Godwin against the secondary, that's chef's kiss.
It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively,
especially Baker. You know, as bad as he played against
that Saint Steam with those turnovers. He had those moments
of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's
(41:09):
so good, and when he needs to pull it down
and run the ball, he's been doing it this season,
like when things break down, he's got no issue.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
Running the ball.
Speaker 2 (41:15):
So we like backing Lamar. And it's only when it's
under three. I mean, you talk at NASA about that trend.
When it's under three, I think he's what twenties four
and seven at this point against the spread. When it's
above it, we do want to fade him. And you know,
last week ended up as being a push of the
plus seven of the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
But you see why.
Speaker 2 (41:37):
It's like they're even Lamar's whole career. You know, they
usually they used to blow teams out, but we've seen
the last two years games usually get a little tight,
they get a little close towards the end. They really
haven't been closing teams out like they used to, and
that's why they went out and got Derrick Henry to
try to change that and just has not worked out
for them this year. Right, Like every game for the
(41:57):
most part for them is are pretty damn close. So
you know, this is another game I mean, you're just
trust the number, right chat, It's like plus three and
a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog,
or not divisional dog, but a home dog. That's like
still a little underrated to the general public. And I
don't think me and you would be shocked if they
pull up the upset and give Lamar's second career loss
(42:19):
to an NFC team. Right now, I believe he's twenty
one to one against the NFC. Pretty crazy, all right.
Speaker 1 (42:25):
The last game that we want to talk about is
the Chargers at Arizona. You talked about Arizona.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
Totally off the Giants. You know what, The Giants at all.
Speaker 1 (42:35):
Hate him without Andrew Thomas, Like I already think that
offense is terrible, that offense at home is terrible, that's true,
But the Eagles also are a little bit better than
the Giants. And like Andrew Thomas, I just like I
worry about what this team is going to do. I think,
(42:56):
to me, that is like, look, you know, offensive line
everything to me when I'm thinking about evaluating this team,
these teams, it's why I love the Lion so much.
It's why I have a little more confidence about the Browns.
This week, You're missing the only All Pro player on
your team and Elik neighbors possibly, so.
Speaker 4 (43:16):
Who want to Eagles pastual? Scares you? A thirty seven
year old brainding gram.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
I just I'm just down on this Eagles team right now.
But I get where you're coming from. But yeah, if
people want to know where I'm man, I'm still if
you get the three and a half, take the three
and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Let's talk about the Chargers and the Cardinals for a second,
because you really like this game, and you I acknowledge
that we had to play it. It's so tempting, but like,
I don't feel strongly about it. It feels like crappy.
So like, if you're not feeling it, I'm not feeling it.
We got a list here of six.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Well, it's just obviously i'd much rather take the bucks
if we're gonna take one dog on this Monday night slate,
I feel way more confident and I like the number better. Right,
We're getting a great key number. But there was a
minute there that they touched three for this Cardinals team
and I was like, holy shit, this is three and
a half. This is we're gonna have two Monday Night
three and a half dogs in our contest. Now, I
(44:10):
was like gonna be beside myself. So luckily it's come
back down. But the Cardinals have to be the right
side like them. You know, we understand that they were
going to struggle in that Green Bay game, but it's
like I told you, that's such a throwaway game with
all the stoppiness and the turnovers in that rain. And
on the flip side, this Chargers team. You know, Herbert
(44:32):
played really well against that Broncos team, but we've seen
this year he's been inconsistent and a lot of their
what they've done so well this year is run the ball,
and that to me is why it's like, Okay.
Speaker 4 (44:44):
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
I'm not rushing to go bet this Arizona team because
their defense has just been so bad for so many
weeks in a row right now. Like I have pretty
good hand on Reid on this team. Like again, they've
had injuries as well Aris on his defense, but man,
they're so bad it's it's really hard to have confidence
of betting this team when it's not a plus three.
So Arizona, if you got the plus three, that's great.
(45:06):
If not, I wouldn't bet this one yet. I'd wait
for it to maybe get back up the plus three
by kickoff.
Speaker 1 (45:13):
All right, it's really gonna come down to the Packers
minus two and a half, Cleveland plus six, Detroit plus
one and a half, Tampa Bay plus three and a half.
I think we're gonna have a battle for the last
spot between Kansas City plus one and a half and
the Jets minus two. I think it's gonna be really
(45:33):
really interesting. Favorites contest reminder, everyone's lowest weekly scoring. The
contest has officially been dropped. Updated total scores are now
on the leaderboard. It's officially a race to finish for
our forty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (45:45):
First place prize. Good Luck are Boosted money line underdog
Harlay moment.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I guess this guy can run all night.
Speaker 3 (45:57):
And he will run three each week.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
We give out a two team money line dog parlay
Bet three six five. Boost the Odds highlights it on
their site all weekend under both game pages.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
Remember both games.
Speaker 1 (46:08):
Are eligible for Bet three six fives early payout promo,
where you get your where your money line pick gets
marked as a win. If they take a seventeen point lead,
even if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
bet it at bet three sixty five.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
This week's boosted.
Speaker 1 (46:24):
Parlay Kansas City Chiefs Detroit Lions find the boost under
either Chiefs or Lions game pages at bet three six five.
But let's do our underdog round robin.
Speaker 3 (46:42):
There will come up payday Halla lou yo, waa pay day.
Speaker 4 (46:46):
There will come up payday some day. Some day, there
will come up payday.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
Halla lou yo wanna payday.
Speaker 3 (46:54):
Tire will come up payday.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
Some day, Simon, I got some opinions, let's hear it. Well,
of course we'll do the Chiefs, and of course we'll do.
Speaker 4 (47:06):
Detroit chunkiest dogs. Gotta do them.
Speaker 3 (47:08):
Hello Detroit, Hello Detroit. Should we do the Bucks?
Speaker 4 (47:19):
Okay? I like that. That's fun. Gotta go Browns.
Speaker 3 (47:22):
I was gonna say, how you feel about the Browns? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (47:24):
You got I mean, I have zero faith, but we
have to go. That's such a huge number.
Speaker 3 (47:28):
It's a plus two.
Speaker 4 (47:30):
Yeah, give me one.
Speaker 2 (47:32):
This last one was tough because there's just a bunch
of ugly ones. I like, if just pure value based
Vegas plus two fifty seems pretty tempted. How do you
feel about that?
Speaker 4 (47:41):
One.
Speaker 1 (47:42):
I don't mind it at all, money Line, Underdog, Round Robin.
It's gonna be the Chiefs, it's gonna be Detroit, it's
gonna be the Bucks, it's gonna be the Browns, it's
gonna be Vegas.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
Yeah, oh we did miss uh the Foxhole?
Speaker 4 (47:54):
Shoot, I mean, it's got to be Detroit, right, try.
Speaker 3 (48:03):
How is it fox Holy? Like everybody like the wise
guys like Detroit, not all of them.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
That's why this number this isn't as this isn't as
all all in. It was more about Detroit up two
and a half. That's where it was like, okay, that
that was the professional heavy side.
Speaker 3 (48:18):
All right, let's go with Detroit as the foxhole. Then
we know we're going the.
Speaker 2 (48:23):
Only one I could think of was the Jets. But like,
is that really that fox Hooley either?
Speaker 3 (48:28):
You know, it's not right. Kansas City feels more fox
Holy potentially to me.
Speaker 4 (48:32):
I love that you're so weary of this Kansas City from.
Speaker 3 (48:34):
A professional perspective, then you know.
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Yeah, it does feel like you're doing something wrong there
with that one.
Speaker 4 (48:40):
I do agree.
Speaker 1 (48:41):
So, but let's go with Detroit. We know we're going
to put Detroit in the contest. Let's make it the Foxholt.
Let's good catch, Matt Mitchell, way to produce, Buddy, this.
Speaker 3 (48:50):
Is a Titus.
Speaker 5 (48:51):
This twenty twenty four team has been we found something special.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
Man.
Speaker 5 (48:55):
I felt it's like we're in here together.
Speaker 4 (48:57):
Nobody's coming out of that circle.
Speaker 2 (48:59):
Man.
Speaker 5 (49:00):
That's exactly where you want to be right now.
Speaker 3 (49:02):
All right, Simon, your biggest bets as we stand here Thursday.
Speaker 2 (49:07):
Definitely Detroit, Definitely Chiefs, Like as you say it right now,
those are two ones I've hit. Jets, I've hit pretty heavy.
Bucks I'm waiting on because I'm still waiting on the
Mike Evans information.
Speaker 4 (49:18):
And you know, Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
I wish I could have gotten more down to six
and a half, which I was right like, I didn't
really get that much. So yeah, sitting right now, it's
pretty chalky. Honestly, it's like I'm pretty heavy on Lions
at two and a half, but pretty heavy on them
at two stay with the Chiefs, pretty heavy at one
and a half. I could see by kickoff, you know, Bucks, Jets,
(49:42):
Browns all make that you know list you want to
do Scoot Roulette.
Speaker 1 (49:47):
I want to do Scoots Roulett. I mean, you're gonna
go first, because you're crushing me right now, So go first.
Choose the game that I want to choose, because I
know you're going to take my pick, So go ahead.
Speaker 4 (49:57):
Who would Chad want to take? I mean, I don't
want do bucks.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
I don't know if that's your pick, I might just
keep going my my Detroit lines.
Speaker 3 (50:05):
That's what I wanted to take.
Speaker 2 (50:07):
All right, I'll give them to you then, Hi, thank you.
Speaker 3 (50:09):
Listen.
Speaker 5 (50:10):
My job is to coach what's here, and I'm going
to coach the hell out of them.
Speaker 4 (50:13):
I'll go to Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (50:20):
You are a baller. That's amazing.
Speaker 1 (50:24):
All right, Let's get Evan to tell us something save.
Speaker 3 (50:30):
Us, make us feel better.
Speaker 1 (50:31):
Evan Abrams, Director, all right, let's get Evan to tell
us something sa save us, make us feel better.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
Evan Abrams, director of research. Talk to us the last
word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
Speaker 5 (50:47):
It's hilarious that Chad was one way on Kansas City.
Simon just brought it all the way back. And I'm
gonna start with Kansas City because we figured you guys
were going there anyway. Here's maybe an angle you haven't heard,
so I kind of put a few things together here.
So last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off
of by four times, four and oh straight up, four
and oh against the spread in his career.
Speaker 4 (51:04):
Here that Chad say it again one more time, Evan.
Speaker 5 (51:07):
It's four and oh three up and against the spread.
But that's just that last decade. So in his career
he's seven and two straight up in eight and one
against the number. Oh my god, terrible. But his two
losses if you think the other side is difficult, his
two losses are to Peyton Manning and twenty thirteen and
Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Real difficult there. Here's
the one that I thought was just ridiculous. So Kansas
City has gone sixteen straight regular season games without winning
(51:27):
the turnover margin. They're eleven and five in those games,
so they win no matter what. And maybe if you
get lucky, they get a few turnovers in this one.
All right, let's go to Tampa Bay. To me, this
bet is all about the number strictly. Even after a
twelve and oh ats run for road favorites the last
two weeks, road favorites of three and a half or
more are still just forty five percent. Since twenty twenty.
Here's the fun one. Lamar is five and nine as
(51:50):
a road favorite of three and a half for more
since twenty twenty. Here are the worst five quarterbacks ats
in that spot in that span. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,
Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. This is not an
easy spot for anybody, So play the number here and then.
I wasn't gonna do this, but I'll give you one
quick thing on Buffalo because I thought you guys earlier
(52:11):
in the week were maybe leaning on laying the number.
It's gotten up to nine, nine and a half, but
it's worth repeating. We've said it on the show before.
Alan has seventy two wins in his career. Fifty one
or seventy percent of those have all been by seven
points or more when the line six or more. He's
actually been in that spot forty two times, and of
those forty two, he's only lost eight in that scenario.
(52:33):
He usually does push the number up, and I tweeted
this early in the week. Will Levis one hundred and
fifty eight quarterbacks have started ten games in the last
twenty years. He's two and twelve against a second half spread.
So even if it's close at the half, he is
two and twelve second half ats in his career, and
outside of Monday Night Football where he's two and zero,
he is oh in twelve second half ats. So even
(52:56):
if it's close, you should be able to find a
way to get a pick six.
Speaker 1 (52:59):
There, guys, I mean, those are great, Evan, and I
think the tragedy is really that Will Levis's had two
games on Monday Night Football.
Speaker 4 (53:05):
That's also true.
Speaker 5 (53:06):
I think of beating the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins
at this.
Speaker 1 (53:08):
Point in his career, it's bills are nothing like bills
buy a million. Sorry Matt Mitchell, we might have just
mushed it, but it is what it is. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars
sund up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place
the bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars
(53:30):
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more whatever the moment, It's never
ordinary at bet three six five. Must be twenty one
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
(53:51):
or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms Conditions restrictions apply.
Speaker 3 (53:55):
Simon and I will.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Return with our next exciting episode. One of the favorites
on the Action Network. You two page on Sunday night,
seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL Week seven. Download
us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribed, leave us five stars, say whatever you want,
fedback as a gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (54:17):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Help us.
Speaker 5 (54:31):
Available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John remote studio here in my hotel room,
and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
(00:28):
my compadre might BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Ero.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Simon, Chad, you picked a great time head out west.
It is cold on the East coast.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
You know what, Simon.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Since I've been in La it has been gray and
sixty five degrees.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
So I'm struggling.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
It is not you know, a bowl of cherries out
here with my view of the ocean, just hobnobbin with
celabs and going to fancy places for dinner. I am
struggling right now, Okay. I mean I'm sitting in a
hotel room. I can barely control the ac It's not easy.
I would like a little bit of sympathy for myself.
(01:10):
Today is our NFL Week seven Best Bets episode, where
Simon and I narrow down our five picks in the
Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contests
presented by BET three sixty five. Sign up now Favorites
dot Action network dot com. We will also get into
the Foxhole, give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bet
of the Week, discuss Simon's bigg As Bets, ore Boosted
(01:32):
money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
much more. Bets are rolling in, the lines are moving,
decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss
Colin Coward likes.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
To say there's a sea of money out there.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars, place a bet for five dollar to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty
(02:08):
five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older.
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions
apply all right, as always on Thursdays during the season,
(02:28):
we like to hear how the wise guys are responding
to our Tuesday conversation. We are that influential. We know
the lines are moving based on what we say, and
then the pros must tell us what they think of
our opinion. Simon, let's do Shreff calls.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Rain telephone range.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Somebody said maybe.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
One should do man.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Yeah, we'll start right away. The game we like. We
like Cleveland. They got to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
It's back down to five and a half, and a
lot of books should have known this was gonna come
back down, but no one thought of Mark Cooper was
worth a real point to the spread. So that was
a bad overreaction by the books. The professionals come in,
and I know played professionals. I still like them at
five and a half. So as long as you can
still find the six, which I would shop around for,
I think that's that's where the pros kind of have
(03:21):
broken on that one. So again, that's a game we're
gonna dive into pretty.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Heavy coming up here.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Surprisingly a game I flipped on a lot of pros,
a lot of guys. I talked to the sharp guys.
They love green Bay. They love green Bay minus two
and a half. So I know, I like, I'd like
to Houston. I like Houston a plus three. I'm probably
gonna avoid it, either take green Bay to two and
a half or just avoid it altogether. It just seems
like most of the guys I talk do like the
(03:47):
green Bay side. The reason seems pretty sound. I think
a lot of their thinking is the same with you.
It's like, this number should probably be three to three
and a half. You're getting two and a half because
there's so much respect and love the general public right now.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
To CJ, the value definitely looks like it is on
green Bay.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
There.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
So a game I was pretty wrong about. A game
we nailed that the number had moved too much. The
Lions that was plus two and a half. Shout out
to anyone that does early entries like I do in
our contest. You were able to get the Lions two
and a half. That was nice to I did. I
just put my picks and usually right when we get
done our show on Tuesdays, I know our fans want
(04:26):
us to do Thursdays. So that's why I didn't even.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Hit chat up.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
I was like, we can't put them these in any way.
But I knew that Detroit number was gonna move. It
was just insane that had gone up to two and
a half that came crashing back down at one and
a half. So it's nice to know we're on the
same side because I was scared. I was like, who's
moving all this Minnesota money? And I think me and
you talk about it all the time, like there's professional
groups who they'll come in small on one side, the
(04:52):
books will react thinking it's professional money taking that side,
and then when they get the number they want, that's
when they come in heavy. And that was the class
of Detroit case. So even when I open up the app,
I'm sure you've seen it's like ninety percent of the
money right now is on this Detroit team. So yes,
that's that's a public and professional play. There a games,
we'll go the ones that people are split on. I
(05:13):
really like the Giants plus three and a half. I
talked to playing professionals who had my same view of
if this gets a two and a half, how do
you not take the Eagles, And a couple of them
are just taking them at three. They don't think it's
ever going to get to two and a half. So
if you like the Eagles, go grab the minus three.
I just don't think it's ever going to get down
at two and a half. I don't think there's enough
professional money coming in, especially the unknown with neighbors. We've
(05:36):
just seen that number.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Now and now Andrew Thomas, like Andrew Thomas, is massive,
literally massive, but also a massive loss for the Giants
a game.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I love Chiefs pretty split professionals.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
I like the forty nine ers. There's pros like me
that love the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
You can talk a nise them about how this Chiefs
team's got so many injuries while the forty niners are
getting healthier at this point, they have the offensive weapons.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
YadA, yadaya.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
At the end of the day, it's my homes of
the dog, like you just, I'm not gonna budget my
stance on taking my homes the dog. It's just a
long term profitable spot to take this guy. He just
always covers in these type of scenarios. So that's been
a lot of discourse on that one. That one really split, yeah,
between the professionals. In the last one a game we
touched on a little bit again, another game I got
(06:22):
lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday, Jets minus
one and a half. It's now moved up to two
and a half. Not shocking at all because we talked
about it. For Russell Wilson was going to become the starter.
This was gonna keep moving against his Pittsburgh team. It's
looking more and more like that's gonna happen here. And
the last one is a game we talked about. We
already knew this was a professional side. But it's the Bucks, right.
(06:45):
The Bucks number got up to four and a half Sunday,
it's been bet down to three and a half. Some
books even touched three, and then it went back up
to three and a half. I think that's where it
should be, right And I was hoping to get more
info on Mike Evans.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Unfortunately haven't I heard much.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I know it's a soft tinger soft tissue injury that
you know he might miss the game, but the line
doesn't reflect that right now. So still very confident in
our books bet but that's that's very public. Ravens heavy
professionals are on this Buccaneers team.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Yeah, I've been checking injury reports from Mike Evans. I
haven't seen anything yet, but look, we're going to get
into all these games.
Speaker 5 (07:25):
I think.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
I think some of the games that you mentioned are
like very interesting. Obviously the Steelers Jets, Obviously, the Chiefs
and Niners. Those are marquee matchups from a betting perspective.
Short numbers going to be a lot of opinions. We
talked about the public all season long, how it had
been a dreadful year for the public this season so far,
(07:48):
thirty eight, forty nine and three forty three percent against
the spread this season.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Now, as we said through five weeks, that.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Was the worst start ever the past twenty years. Now
it's the four worse start through six weeks because the
public went ten to three and one last week. So
you were so pressing it last week, right, like you said,
the public is due. We did add more daily, more
chalky picks than normal to our Phase fives.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Those were the games we actually won.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
So the question will be how aggressively are we leaning
into the fading the public this week. How much will
that regression that we expect factor into impacting the games
we like the first game we touched on it on Tuesday,
you didn't mention it into sharp calls, and you and
I have not discussed it at all since then. But
(08:42):
I did put Miami and Indy back in there because
we leaned Dolphins three and a half.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
It's now three. It's come down.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
I think it's come down because a lot of people,
as soon as Anthony Richardson was it was indicated that
he would likely be the starter, people started betting on
the Dolphins. We didn't think it would be in our
top five. I just left it on the list because
there is such a pro Joe discrepancy with the money
on the Dolphins and the tickets on the Colts. Do
(09:13):
you have any opinion on this game that you feel
more strongly about it because Anthony Richardson is now expected
to be the starter.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
No, it's just a game I'm staying away from. It's
like there's a plenty of ugly dogs this week, and
then there's some dogs that aren't that ugly. That's like,
I'd rather lose six figures on Detroit or the Chiefs
than fucking with this Miami team again. It's like, I
can't be bothered with putting a lot of money on
this one. And I'm hoping you weren't going to force
me into putting this in the contest, because you're right,
(09:43):
the pros liked this spot for Miami.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
But it's kind of the same thing for last week.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
These guys came in heavi as shit, this group on
the Tennessee Tids against the Colts because.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
We all agree the Colts have a really bad.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Defense and they have some questionable weapons on all offense,
and you know, no Jonathan Taylor, Pittman's banged up. Like
there's a lot to be negative about this Colts team,
and I get why other professionals call on the other
side of it.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
It's just I just can't do it. I can't.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I can't put heavy money on this Miami team right now.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
All right, that's fine.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Like we've been burned, uh uh, Like I'm still a
little bit hungover from that Jets loss and like that
Giants loss. So we're gonna have plenty of bad quarterbacks
to bet on and play of ugly games to bet on.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
We don't need to force one.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
Yeah, just get and find better numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Right, Like it's three now most books, like you kind
of missed the three and a half right on Miami,
Like I wouldn't just take the three, I'd try to
get the.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Fret and a half Seattle in Atlanta. We leaned Atlanta
when it was two and a half, it's now three.
I don't think you know, like all the matchup, all
the breakdowns, what's interesting to me? Make me one Atlanta
even more. The public loves loves loves Seattle, and even
(11:06):
after all that, the line has still moved from two
and a half to three. Is there anything that says
we're considering Atlanta because at this point it's such a
public fade, or do we think Seattle is healthier. They're
coming off a bye. Atlanta is getting so lucky. They
(11:27):
could easily be zero to six, one and five, two
and three, whatever it is. Instead they are where they
are because they've really gotten lucky, including by the way
that Panthers game, which was much much closer than the
score indicates.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Yeah, this is the game that we talked about. I
just let them never dictate my pick.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
I took Atlanta in MYCE twon and a half, and
I said if it gets up to three and a
half on Seahawks, if I hadn't made a bet yet,
I would take that number.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
Like this just screams a game where.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
The final whoever's the ball lasts, is going to win
this byfield goal, right Like, I don't have confidence right
now in either, but I have more confidence in this
Atlanta defense in Seattle. It just Seattle's defense has just
been so bad for so many weeks in a row.
Anytime they play a good offense, they just get rolled
right now, And I mean, we both agree Atlanta is
a really good offense right now, Like it's it's it's hummy.
(12:16):
Even though they have injuries to the offensive line, they
really haven't lost the beat. So I do I like
the matchup for Atlanta. I'd still take them with minus
two and a half. But you're right, it's it's gonna
get to a point where it's like, you know, if
it's three and a half, it's it's gonna be tempting
to take Seattle. That's it's gonna be a nice value
on a back door.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
I met a guy last night who's an investor, and
he like, that's what he does for a living, right,
And we were talking about betting, and he was talking
about how minuscule the margin of error is when you
are making a bet and going from two and a
(12:57):
half to three to three and a half, and the
value that people find at three and a half versus
the value that people find at two and a half.
It truly is when you're betting, unlike anything else in
equity markets, because.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
The band of sort of.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Miscalculation is so much bigger than trying to nail a
half a point when betting on a game, like to
see someone whose livelihood is in the investment space thinking
about the narrow margins and betting, and here we are
talking about three and a half like one side, two
and a half like the other. It's an extra point,
(13:44):
you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
It's just because we've seen it all though. That's why
we jogged last week. We were freaking out about that
Green Bay half a point and it's like didn't even
matter in any which way. And that's just because me
and you have been around long enough where it's like
sometimes just half a points are a big deal and
they do matter, and we try not to react to it.
But yeah, I told you I'm a big believer in Yeska,
(14:08):
the best of the number is important, but it's also
like you just want to be on the right side,
so I try not to let it always dictate us
where It's like, if we like a side, like I
just said, there were a bunch of good numbers, mean
you could have locked it on Tuesday, But we can't
do that to the fans of the show, right. That's
why I even bother texting. People want to listen here
hear us go through our picks today and make this pick.
So how would I help anyone on the show if
(14:29):
I'm telling you, well, I already got Detroit two and
a half, so no, no bet for me. I already
got the good, best number. I'm on to the next one,
so it does matter. But at the same time, it's like,
if I thought Detroit this number was gonna come down
to the two, I wouldn't give it out. But it's like, no,
I think you still have a lot of value on
Detroit at plus one and a half, so I still
have no issue taking that number.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
As Scooch one said, the right side is the winning side.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Yeah, yeah, that's what it comes to Bay.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
As Milman once said, Green Bay feels like the side
here at two and a half, and Chad Millman is
proud of himself.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Literally, the sharps agree with what Milman is saying. It's
like he's a professional, you know what. He just doesn't
get appreciated the way that he should for his understanding
of the sports betting markets.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Green Bay minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
There are a lot of books that have it at
three Houston, but we're talking about that three six five.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
It's at two and a half.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Houston is the public dog. There's so much public love
for Houston right now. It definitely makes me like green
Bay even more. Now that we've gotten, you know, some
confirmation from my fellow sharps, I feel even better about it.
You're obviously not feeling great about it. You might even
feel like you're being bullied into it.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
No, I agree with them that that's probably the right number.
I just still have major questions about this green Bay team.
They're so dependent will be on turnovers, Like that's the
only thing I can think of, is like, Okay, maybe
they'll get the young kid on the road here and
get him the turnover because you're right, like the splits
are different between him and home and him on the road.
Like you said, it's it's all about the number at
(16:13):
the end of the day, and it's like, okay, two
and a half, that's the good number. I trust the
guys who are saying that, I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
All right, Simon, I can't believe what I'm about to say.
I'm in a hotel, so I can't go crazy.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
Why not? You'll never be there ever again.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
You never know. It is time four hour Big Ball
Better the Week.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
and Tommy John makes the greatest My friend sack up
because we are going with Cincinnati at Cleveland and we
are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six. You mentioned
(16:57):
it in the sharp calls This line god way too aggressive.
It got up to six and a half while we
were doing the show on Tuesday as Amari Cooper was traded.
We know we don't want to bet to Sean Watson,
but this one is like a big, fat, hanging curveball
that is tempting us, and we are either going to
(17:19):
flail and look terrible and swing so hard we hurt
our back and fall to our knees. Or we are
hitting this one so freaking far out of the park
that we are going to look like the courageous big
balls betters that we are.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yeah, I wish it was still six and a half, right,
that was really nice. That was a nice gift by
the sports books there moving that.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
By a fool.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
It was a minute like that. Everyone you know it
wasn't it. It's like young love. It just can't last.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
I mean I saw a couple of books touch seven,
so it got up there like they were obviously panic
moving that number because so much money was flooding, but
terrible move. And we talked about like this is a
nice matchup defensively for Cleveland against this you know Cincinnati
offense that obviously they want to push the ball through
(18:15):
the air. I don't know if I'll be able to
do that against Cleveland here. And then on the flip side,
this should be a get right game. Finally, for Watson,
this is one of the worst defenses he's played this season.
He knows he's got to hear the noise right the
I mean, they just trade his number one receiver. This
team is basically just saying to him like we're semi
giving up on the season here. You know, I love
desperate teams in these type of scenarios. So we talked
(18:37):
about we think we're getting a free point and a
half of points just because of what happened last week,
because it's the pre because of the Brown. You can
probably throw another point in there, right, this probably should
be only three three and a half in a divisional
game like this is so yeah, a ton of free
points of value here. We are betting on one of
the worst teams in football and easily the worst quarterback
right now in football. Right, if you just look at
(18:57):
the numbers, it's no fun, always scary. Gotta hold your nose,
trust the number, and take the number here with Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Yeah, Also, Cleveland's getting better, right, Their offensive line is
getting a little bit healthier.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Jack Conklin is back.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
That's a goody.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
That's that's a big deal. Nick Chubb is finally going
to be back. That's a big deal. There are some
pieces here that I think we'll make Deshaun Watson look
a little bit better. I don't know if he'll play better,
but maybe he's not staring at the rush right in
front of him immediately and then taking off like maybe
(19:34):
he will feel a little bit more confident, maybe they
will run the ball a little bit more effectively. So
there is an opportunity here to pounce on the Browns
in a in a big division rival game.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
And so.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
You know, like.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
We have to fade the public when they are coming
in on the Bengal as such a big road favorite,
as heavily as they are, it's we gotta do it.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, and just a reaction too, Like, Okay, I say
the Giants do cover that three? Is this number really
this high?
Speaker 4 (20:12):
Still? I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
So there's a lot of things right now where it
feels like it's a reaction. We're getting really good value
on this Cleveland team. And yeah, the like I said,
matchups defensively and offensively. This is as good as it
gets for this Cleveland team.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Our sponsor, Simon Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear
I've ever worn. It's what makes us comfortable making a
big Balls bet of the Week on the Cleveland Browns.
The underwear has changed my life. The shirts have changed
my life. The pajama bottoms have changed my life. When
you're truly comfortable, you can bet better if you love
(20:47):
Simon and I if you love this show, you love
Tommy John. Get twenty five percent off your first order
right now at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Save
twenty five percent to Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
It's all right.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Look, we've talked about Detroit and Minnesota. We wanted more
time to research this. On Tuesday, as we were doing that,
the line pushed up to two and a half. Simon,
like you said, immediately got some buyback. I think it's
interesting you should explain a little bit more like the
scenario that you're talking about, and you mentioned about how
professional betters manipulate the lines, because it's worth an extra
(21:22):
thirty second explanation because a lot of people don't understand it.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So explain that a little bit.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
You know, we talk all the time. Two has become
a very key number.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
And you saw a playout this week with this Vikings team,
so you know, a lot of books open them minus
one Sunday night, professional money comes in on the Vikings.
They get up to two, a little bit more money, right,
These professionals keep keep betting it. So again it's not
big money. It's like a thousand dollars, that's how much
these books will take on individual bets Sunday and Monday,
(21:51):
unless you really know them, maybe you get ten thousand,
but they'll come in put another couple of thousand on
it on Tuesday, move it a little more, and the
books will finally move it across that key number of
two and a half. And then basically, you know, it
depends on what they runners you have, but simultaneously you'll
hit multiple books at the same time get to two
and a half before all the books move it. Because basically,
(22:13):
I mean the truth is a lot of these books
they're moving their number off air like professional betters aren't hitting.
I mean, I'm not trying to call it these different books,
but there's some books that like they ban you instantly,
I mean you are instantly banned, and they don't take
big bets, especially from runners, professional betters, all that noise.
Speaker 4 (22:33):
They'll just move their number based off what other.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Books are moving their numbers, right, they're not even moving
off other people's bets. So yeah, the books that can't
get the professional money, they know right away that they
kind of fell into a little bit of a trap
and that they might have moved the number too much.
And you know, we talked about right, losing the number
one dandom football or number two. I guess behind TJ.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Watt A.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Hutchinson should move the number. But did they move it
too much? I think that's what the book did, right
They they thought that, you know, they're getting ahead of it.
The professionals were agreeing with them, they were getting a
good movement here, and it kind of came back on
them where It's like, I think a lot of people
like us are just really skeptical of this Vikings team still.
And on the flip side, it's how I mean, I've
(23:17):
never been more confident in this Lion's offense. I mean
they've just put up back to back forty point games,
like it's all clicking right now. And you know, even
if their defense suffers here, I don't know how that
affects their offense. Like they just they are full blown
running down your throat and if that doesn't work, they're
they're gonna be able to move with through there.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
I mean, that's just how dominant this team is right now.
So I haven't waivered.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I still like them despite them being probably the most
public dog right I think they're getting all the money,
all the bets right now in Detroit and me and
you talked about it. I just don't think the books
have caught up to them. And you know, my mind,
this is just a little bit too much respect to
a Vikings team that not that their wins have been fluky,
(24:01):
but a lot of things early in the season went
their way with a lot of their games between the
turnovers and how well Brian Flores has had this defensive
play and then you know Sam Darnold, like that was
his first bad game of the year, was that game
in England, and you know, maybe he got it right
and during this bye week, but okay, you just face
(24:22):
the Jets defense. I mean, you think are pretty good,
but I think overall the Lions defense has probably been
better this year. I don't think it's gonna get any
easier for him trying to pass the ball downfield against
the Detroit defense.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
So one thing I want to clear up for people
is professional better is getting one thousand dollars down early
in the week. If a professional better gets a thousand
dollars down on a game early in the week, sometimes
that is the equivalent of that same better getting ten, twenty,
thirty thousand or more later in the week.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Because bookmakers.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
You say they're sort of moving on air, That basically
means bookmakers are just moving the number without any BET's
coming in. They're responding to what they're seeing from other
operators and assuming those operators who might be more inclined
to take professional Better's money are getting money, and so
everyone's moving it why lines all moved the same time.
But professional book book makers also they book on faces,
(25:17):
and so if Simon walks in or someone else walks
in that they know as a professional Better, even if
they're taking up what's called a nickel bet five hundred
dollars or a dime one thousand dollars, they're going to
move that number based on who the better is, not
on the money taken. And so that's why the money
amount doesn't really matter at that point in the season,
(25:38):
at that point of the week, because it's about the
better who's making the bet, and that's how the line
can get manipulated or how the line can move the
other way.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
As for the Lions.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
Co signed to everything, we have felt this for a
couple of weeks. Their offensive line is so dominant and
there is definitely a change in the play calling to
be more physical, to be more run focused, to have
Jared Goff play more within the system when he's amazing,
(26:12):
And you're right, this doesn't impact the defense. The worst
unit on the field will be the Vikings offense. And
so how much will a diminished Vikings defense Lions defense
have to overperform against a Vikings offense that is really
middle of the road, right, And so now you've got
a number one Vikings defense going against a dominant Lions offense.
(26:37):
But the offensive line is so good, will it be
able to control the Vikings pass rush which is their
strength because Brian Flores is so good at devising different
blitz schemes.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
So uh yeah, we're.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
They are a huge public dog. I hate it, but
Dan Campbell is great against the spread. Dan Campbell is
great as an underdog and no teams. I got this
from Ray Bron listening to the six pack five and
no teams at home forty four percent against the spread
the past two decades. And then this was great from
raybon You know I love ref stats. Clay Martin is
(27:15):
the ref road underdogs with Clay Martin seventy against the spread.
So we're going with the Lions. They'll be in the
contest yeah.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
And one thing I'll say really quick though, when you
talked about better's getting their bets down, I talked.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
About that COVID.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
I mean, as horrible as it was, obviously for many
reasons for betters, it's been great because you can wear
masks now in these casinos and that's been a game
changer for a lot of people. And I mean me
and Chad talked about it ages ago, Like when I
go to the books, I go to work when everyone
goes to sleep, like when the main pit bosses leave,
that's my time to shine, right when the secondary unit's
(27:53):
in there at night. And Chad knows. I mean, I
talk about the tricks of the trade. You act drunk
with a mask on, you go in there, you act sloppy,
like you know what you're doing. You're just throwing money
around on stupid bets. I've never in my entire life
had anyone say no on a bet after midnight when
I have a mask on, acting like I'm a little intoxicated.
But if you go in midday when the books are empty,
(28:15):
no mask on, and you're asking to put ten k
down on, you know the browns, Someone's gonna come down
and talk to you. But if you do that at
three in the morning, no one's come down to talk
to you. They're gonna be like, what an idiot? Yeah,
well happy they take this guy's money on this Browns bet.
So definitely, if you're someone that's ever been banned or whatever,
(28:36):
they can't stop you from going in there. And once
they take your bet, they've taken it. They're going to
pay you out no matter what. And they'll just give
you the same speech they give me every time, which is, oh,
did you know you were a banned here? You're not
supposed to betting here, and you just oh, I didn't realize.
And that's how it is. So they cannot let you in.
It's a private business. Once you're in, you make the bets,
they've taken the action, they have to pay you out.
(28:57):
So that's just something to keep in mind.
Speaker 4 (28:58):
People.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
You don't even if if you are banned from a book,
that can't stop you from going until they catch you.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
At ten am, the ticket taker turns around and gives
it a quick approval approval please.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
One more stat short home favorites in the division of
three points or less forty five percent against the spread
the past twenty years, forty two percent since twenty twenty.
I put Carolina Washington in here. Washington a point favorite.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Again.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Panthers are the play every metric, every trend. It also
has bet the Panthers. We will not be putting this contest.
I just want that on the record.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Carry on, Yeah, carry on the Jenn Daniels commandors.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
They have some horrid regression coming. I think they're nine
for nine on fourth downs this year.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
It's just it's a Simon, We're not even We've said
all we have to say about the Panthers. We have,
We've given the people our opinion. We're not going to
torture anybody. We've already given the Browns. Let's move on
Las Vegas at the Los Angeles Raiders. This number has
moved a full point since you, Pegg did as Simon
says on Sunday, and like to me, this was about
(30:05):
getting the best of the number when you said it,
and you were right. All the money and all the
tickets on the Rams. I do want to say, like,
I don't feel strong that we're going to put in
the contest. I do lean Raiders at six and a half.
I do think the score last week was so lopsided
for so many regressible reasons on the part of the
(30:26):
Steelers that I do think you're getting a little bit
more value on the Raiders then probably is warranted giving
the Rams situation, I.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
Agree with you, we'll take them.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
But my fears of all the teams right now that
I've watched on film, there are few teams that look
like they quit in certain games. The Raiders have like
two games this year they look like they've quit on
the games. And there's not like games are getting blown out.
It's like pretty close games and they just kind of
give up in the second half. So I'm with agreements
like this number is a good number. You should take
(30:59):
this on the Raiders here, But man, it's just so
bad and so negative this Raiders team. I feel more
comfortable if I see them actually got the gate and
win one of these games and get a cover here.
It's just hard to back them right now. It just
feels like everything's so negative surrounding this team.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
Game of the week, Game of the season, Super Bowl
rematch Kansas City at San Francisco. San Francisco is a
one point favorite, your assigmon says on Tuesday when this
was at one and a half take the Chiefs, And honestly,
this line had not moved until I think late Wednesday
night early this morning, going back down from one and
(31:35):
a half to one. And the Chiefs are a massive
public dog. So the fact the line had barely moved
closer to pick says what I think. What you indicated
at the top of the show with sharp calls is
that the books might be getting a lot of professional
money on San Francisco. So I know we want to
(31:57):
be on the Chiefs, and I feel the same am
exact way I did before the Super Bowl last year.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
The Niners roster is better, The Niners.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Have a better team. The Chiefs could easily be two
and three. Listening to Stockey on the Action Network podcast,
he made great points. Isaiah Likely's toe could have been
a loss when his toe was out of bounds on
that game tying catch for the Ravens. In Week one,
(32:27):
there was a PI call on a desperate heave by
Patrick Mahomes in a game that the Chiefs ultimately beat
the Bengals, when the Bengals never should have let the
Chiefs in that game. They had a missed PI call
when they were playing the Falcons that cost the Falcons
the game. Like they have a lot of issues, right,
(32:47):
no Pacheco, no rashe Rice. They're not playing great, They're
not moving the ball down the field. It's like, this
is the heart versus argument. Your brain says you got
to take the Niners. Your heart is saying, who the
fuck bets against Patrick Mahomes isn't underdoge?
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (33:09):
I think we all agree though that this fort Niners
team is better and they had better weapons and everything
like that. But me and you earn a total agreement
that went it's in the fourth quarter. That's where the
Chiefs get you. And if they can just keep this close,
which I think they'll be able to because we've seen
it this year. The forty nine Ers just haven't been
putting teams away and that's kind of been there kryptonite
this year. So we totally understand all the injuries that
(33:31):
the Chiefs teams had, and we all knew that this
would probably be a more public dog, right just because
they are five and zero and Mahomes, you know, does
usually cover these games. And I talked me and you
joked about it. It's like, how do you not put
them in Detroit? And a teaser like again, both them
across seven and a half when they are both plus
one and a half, Like that's that's too good to
be true. So all of this makes sense, but at
(33:56):
the end of the day, it's just you said it.
It's like, we can't not take my home here. It's
just if he has the ball, he's down by three
in the fourth quarter, I think it we're at least
going to overtime, if not winning this game out right
at the end. And you cannot say the same with
Purdy and this forty nine ers offense. I just you know,
as well as he's played, it just feels like it's
(34:17):
way too much on his shoulders right now and he's
eventually to get caught. We need to play against a
really good defense, and that's what we have here, right,
a really good defense.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
So yeah, the Chiefs running three tight end sets and
trying to make it.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Work right now because they don't have any receivers, it's
a little daunting to bet on it. But having Mahomes
out plus number it kind of eases the pain a
little bit. So not going to overreact to it too much.
Just take the plus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
I mean, do we really think this ends up in
our contest. I'm not as.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
Convinced as he right now about the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yeah, it has to end at some point. Patrick Mahomes
being able to do this and this team this year
specifically not having the talent, not having the depth, being
able to stay in these games and getting the lucky
breaks they're getting, Like, Patrick Mahomes, getting you in the
position to win the game or tie the game is
(35:11):
one thing. Getting all the lucky breaks that they have
been getting is entirely different. Like, how can it keep happening?
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Cause if you're really good, you put in the work,
you put yourself in the right scenarios, you make your
own luck.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
Chat have you not learned that in life?
Speaker 3 (35:27):
So you could say that, but he's like, becomes the teacher.
Speaker 4 (35:31):
You've learned nothing. You learn nothing from last year's playoffs.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
They literally had the hardest road in NFL history to
make it to the Super Bowl last year, and they
fucking did it somehow, and they took down an even
better forty nine ers.
Speaker 4 (35:44):
Team than what we have here right now.
Speaker 2 (35:45):
So I'm with you, like there's a reason you should
be nervous about this, But at the same time, it's
like you just have to trust the number and trust
Mahomes like he's just long term as a dog, he's
going to be profitable for us for our entire lives.
So yeah, if we don't this one all right, that sucks,
but we know long term he's gonna make us money
betting him in this exact spot.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I mean, I think we're gonna have about six games
we want to put in and this one is going
to be on the fence. I really believe that New
York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are now two
point dogs. It is ticked up since the DeVante Adams news,
but really the real reason here is because of Russell
Wilson practicing with the first team and Adam schefter saying
that all signs are trending towards Russell Wilson starting, which
(36:30):
clearly is not the right decision. But this is what
makes the ticket and money split so interesting. The ticket's
slightly more on the Steelers, the money decidedly on the Jets.
As you said, the pros are on the Jets. Like
I feel actually okay with this In the contest, the
things that worry me are the line flipping from Steelers
(36:54):
to Jets. We know that historically when that happens since
twenty nineteen, the team that it flipped towards that is
not the favorite forty two percent against the spread. Tomlin
is a home dog, the best coach as a home
dog the past twenty years a generation.
Speaker 4 (37:10):
Loo's the greatest of all time.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Look at your work, But look they're missing.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
The Steelers are missing their center, Zach Frasier, top five
center according to Pro Football Focus. They're missing their guard,
James Daniels, top guard according to Pro Football Focus. So
there are like factors here beyond Russell Wilson that make
us lean Jets.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
We all talk too much. Sharp dudes, can just see it.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Yeah, but you're right, the number is moving a lot,
like I wouldn't mind locking this sin hopefully again one
and a half in our contest, because it is going
up to two and a half of most.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
Books at this point.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
And yep, you know, it looks like I'll probably hit
three by kickoff because it's going to be such a
heavily publicly back game the Jets at this point. I
agree with the line movement, though, I when you talk
about I just I think Russell Wilson's bad and I
don't think it's gonna work out well for him. And
against a really good defensive front the Jets that yeah,
they sugar against their run, but they're pretty damn good against.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
The pass, and you know, and their strength is their
defensive tackles. And the Steelers' weakness right now is in
fact they're missing. They're two of the best interior alignment
in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
So it's just again, the lines were even so much.
I just want to grab it now because I think
there is still value. But you're right, it's like like
you're nervous about that Chiefs game. This makes me nervous
because it's like we're betting on one of the most
defunctional franchises as a favorite that has a ton of
drama going against a Tomlin team and what you're talking about,
(38:42):
it's like a raw ra spot pretty much. It's especially
if it hits three. It really is so a little
nerve wracking. But again, this is really a fade on
Russell Wilson. I just I think they're gonna put him
in there, he'll get demolished and then next week we
see Justin Fields once again. I just again, I don't
know why they're doing it. It's so bizarre. He's gotten
it to foreign too, and he's just he's looked so
(39:04):
well run the ball, and I know he hasn't been
the best passer, but you need a running quarterback, especially
behind such a bad offensive line. So I'm hoping here
we're taking advantage of a good number against a team
that's in transition right now, and it's Pittsburgh team, a.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Game that we both like, we can agree. I feel
good it'll be in the contest. Tampa Bay plus three
and a half. This was my exact decision on Tuesday.
I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked secondary
twenty first in the league in pass coverage giving up
two hundred and seventy five passing yards per game. By
(39:37):
the way, that's thirty first in the league, just just
ahead of the Jaguars. I like Videveya as an obstacle
for the Reson. He is the key Raven's rushing game.
Like that's I think that's really important. The things that
worry mere are the things that look not everything is
a clear decision, right, These are all going to be
fifty five to sixty percent decisions. We knowledge betting against
(40:02):
Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not gonna be any
more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting
against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like it just
what happens, and like it's infuriating because of his mobility
and because of his record against the NFC. And of
course we were about Baker doing Baker things, but this
(40:24):
is a pro Joe split.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
I'm sticking with the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
Yeah, And it's really like you said, it's it's all
about vit to Vey. If he can stop this whole
Derek Henry run, that's the key. Like he's been so
incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a
big run, it feels like he gets it for him.
And he's been flipped. He's flipped a couple of games,
it seems like this season for this team.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
So that's the big one.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
And then, like you've talked about it, if Mike Evans
is back him and Godwin against the secondary, that's chef's kiss.
It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively,
especially Baker. You know, as bad as he played against
that Saint Steam with those turnovers. He had those moments
of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's
(41:09):
so good, and when he needs to pull it down
and run the ball, he's been doing it this season,
like when things break down, he's got no issue.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
Running the ball.
Speaker 2 (41:15):
So we like backing Lamar. And it's only when it's
under three. I mean, you talk at NASA about that trend.
When it's under three, I think he's what twenties four
and seven at this point against the spread. When it's
above it, we do want to fade him. And you know,
last week ended up as being a push of the
plus seven of the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
But you see why.
Speaker 2 (41:37):
It's like they're even Lamar's whole career. You know, they
usually they used to blow teams out, but we've seen
the last two years games usually get a little tight,
they get a little close towards the end. They really
haven't been closing teams out like they used to, and
that's why they went out and got Derrick Henry to
try to change that and just has not worked out
for them this year. Right, Like every game for the
(41:57):
most part for them is are pretty damn close. So
you know, this is another game I mean, you're just
trust the number, right chat, It's like plus three and
a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog,
or not divisional dog, but a home dog. That's like
still a little underrated to the general public. And I
don't think me and you would be shocked if they
pull up the upset and give Lamar's second career loss
(42:19):
to an NFC team. Right now, I believe he's twenty
one to one against the NFC. Pretty crazy, all right.
Speaker 1 (42:25):
The last game that we want to talk about is
the Chargers at Arizona. You talked about Arizona.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
Totally off the Giants. You know what, The Giants at all.
Speaker 1 (42:35):
Hate him without Andrew Thomas, Like I already think that
offense is terrible, that offense at home is terrible, that's true,
But the Eagles also are a little bit better than
the Giants. And like Andrew Thomas, I just like I
worry about what this team is going to do. I think,
(42:56):
to me, that is like, look, you know, offensive line
everything to me when I'm thinking about evaluating this team,
these teams, it's why I love the Lion so much.
It's why I have a little more confidence about the Browns.
This week, You're missing the only All Pro player on
your team and Elik neighbors possibly, so.
Speaker 4 (43:16):
Who want to Eagles pastual? Scares you? A thirty seven
year old brainding gram.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
I just I'm just down on this Eagles team right now.
But I get where you're coming from. But yeah, if
people want to know where I'm man, I'm still if
you get the three and a half, take the three
and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Let's talk about the Chargers and the Cardinals for a second,
because you really like this game, and you I acknowledge
that we had to play it. It's so tempting, but like,
I don't feel strongly about it. It feels like crappy.
So like, if you're not feeling it, I'm not feeling it.
We got a list here of six.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Well, it's just obviously i'd much rather take the bucks
if we're gonna take one dog on this Monday night slate,
I feel way more confident and I like the number better. Right,
We're getting a great key number. But there was a
minute there that they touched three for this Cardinals team
and I was like, holy shit, this is three and
a half. This is we're gonna have two Monday Night
three and a half dogs in our contest. Now, I
(44:10):
was like gonna be beside myself. So luckily it's come
back down. But the Cardinals have to be the right
side like them. You know, we understand that they were
going to struggle in that Green Bay game, but it's
like I told you, that's such a throwaway game with
all the stoppiness and the turnovers in that rain. And
on the flip side, this Chargers team. You know, Herbert
(44:32):
played really well against that Broncos team, but we've seen
this year he's been inconsistent and a lot of their
what they've done so well this year is run the ball,
and that to me is why it's like, Okay.
Speaker 4 (44:44):
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
I'm not rushing to go bet this Arizona team because
their defense has just been so bad for so many
weeks in a row right now. Like I have pretty
good hand on Reid on this team. Like again, they've
had injuries as well Aris on his defense, but man,
they're so bad it's it's really hard to have confidence
of betting this team when it's not a plus three.
So Arizona, if you got the plus three, that's great.
(45:06):
If not, I wouldn't bet this one yet. I'd wait
for it to maybe get back up the plus three
by kickoff.
Speaker 1 (45:13):
All right, it's really gonna come down to the Packers
minus two and a half, Cleveland plus six, Detroit plus
one and a half, Tampa Bay plus three and a half.
I think we're gonna have a battle for the last
spot between Kansas City plus one and a half and
the Jets minus two. I think it's gonna be really
(45:33):
really interesting. Favorites contest reminder, everyone's lowest weekly scoring. The
contest has officially been dropped. Updated total scores are now
on the leaderboard. It's officially a race to finish for
our forty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (45:45):
First place prize. Good Luck are Boosted money line underdog
Harlay moment.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I guess this guy can run all night.
Speaker 3 (45:57):
And he will run three each week.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
We give out a two team money line dog parlay
Bet three six five. Boost the Odds highlights it on
their site all weekend under both game pages.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
Remember both games.
Speaker 1 (46:08):
Are eligible for Bet three six fives early payout promo,
where you get your where your money line pick gets
marked as a win. If they take a seventeen point lead,
even if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
bet it at bet three sixty five.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
This week's boosted.
Speaker 1 (46:24):
Parlay Kansas City Chiefs Detroit Lions find the boost under
either Chiefs or Lions game pages at bet three six five.
But let's do our underdog round robin.
Speaker 3 (46:42):
There will come up payday Halla lou yo, waa pay day.
Speaker 4 (46:46):
There will come up payday some day. Some day, there
will come up payday.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
Halla lou yo wanna payday.
Speaker 3 (46:54):
Tire will come up payday.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
Some day, Simon, I got some opinions, let's hear it. Well,
of course we'll do the Chiefs, and of course we'll do.
Speaker 4 (47:06):
Detroit chunkiest dogs. Gotta do them.
Speaker 3 (47:08):
Hello Detroit, Hello Detroit. Should we do the Bucks?
Speaker 4 (47:19):
Okay? I like that. That's fun. Gotta go Browns.
Speaker 3 (47:22):
I was gonna say, how you feel about the Browns? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (47:24):
You got I mean, I have zero faith, but we
have to go. That's such a huge number.
Speaker 3 (47:28):
It's a plus two.
Speaker 4 (47:30):
Yeah, give me one.
Speaker 2 (47:32):
This last one was tough because there's just a bunch
of ugly ones. I like, if just pure value based
Vegas plus two fifty seems pretty tempted. How do you
feel about that?
Speaker 4 (47:41):
One.
Speaker 1 (47:42):
I don't mind it at all, money Line, Underdog, Round Robin.
It's gonna be the Chiefs, it's gonna be Detroit, it's
gonna be the Bucks, it's gonna be the Browns, it's
gonna be Vegas.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
Yeah, oh we did miss uh the Foxhole?
Speaker 4 (47:54):
Shoot, I mean, it's got to be Detroit, right, try.
Speaker 3 (48:03):
How is it fox Holy? Like everybody like the wise
guys like Detroit, not all of them.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
That's why this number this isn't as this isn't as
all all in. It was more about Detroit up two
and a half. That's where it was like, okay, that
that was the professional heavy side.
Speaker 3 (48:18):
All right, let's go with Detroit as the foxhole. Then
we know we're going the.
Speaker 2 (48:23):
Only one I could think of was the Jets. But like,
is that really that fox Hooley either?
Speaker 3 (48:28):
You know, it's not right. Kansas City feels more fox
Holy potentially to me.
Speaker 4 (48:32):
I love that you're so weary of this Kansas City from.
Speaker 3 (48:34):
A professional perspective, then you know.
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Yeah, it does feel like you're doing something wrong there
with that one.
Speaker 4 (48:40):
I do agree.
Speaker 1 (48:41):
So, but let's go with Detroit. We know we're going
to put Detroit in the contest. Let's make it the Foxholt.
Let's good catch, Matt Mitchell, way to produce, Buddy, this.
Speaker 3 (48:50):
Is a Titus.
Speaker 5 (48:51):
This twenty twenty four team has been we found something special.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
Man.
Speaker 5 (48:55):
I felt it's like we're in here together.
Speaker 4 (48:57):
Nobody's coming out of that circle.
Speaker 2 (48:59):
Man.
Speaker 5 (49:00):
That's exactly where you want to be right now.
Speaker 3 (49:02):
All right, Simon, your biggest bets as we stand here Thursday.
Speaker 2 (49:07):
Definitely Detroit, Definitely Chiefs, Like as you say it right now,
those are two ones I've hit. Jets, I've hit pretty heavy.
Bucks I'm waiting on because I'm still waiting on the
Mike Evans information.
Speaker 4 (49:18):
And you know, Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
I wish I could have gotten more down to six
and a half, which I was right like, I didn't
really get that much. So yeah, sitting right now, it's
pretty chalky. Honestly, it's like I'm pretty heavy on Lions
at two and a half, but pretty heavy on them
at two stay with the Chiefs, pretty heavy at one
and a half. I could see by kickoff, you know, Bucks, Jets,
(49:42):
Browns all make that you know list you want to
do Scoot Roulette.
Speaker 1 (49:47):
I want to do Scoots Roulett. I mean, you're gonna
go first, because you're crushing me right now, So go first.
Choose the game that I want to choose, because I
know you're going to take my pick, So go ahead.
Speaker 4 (49:57):
Who would Chad want to take? I mean, I don't
want do bucks.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
I don't know if that's your pick, I might just
keep going my my Detroit lines.
Speaker 3 (50:05):
That's what I wanted to take.
Speaker 2 (50:07):
All right, I'll give them to you then, Hi, thank you.
Speaker 3 (50:09):
Listen.
Speaker 5 (50:10):
My job is to coach what's here, and I'm going
to coach the hell out of them.
Speaker 4 (50:13):
I'll go to Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (50:20):
You are a baller. That's amazing.
Speaker 1 (50:24):
All right, Let's get Evan to tell us something save.
Speaker 3 (50:30):
Us, make us feel better.
Speaker 1 (50:31):
Evan Abrams, Director, all right, let's get Evan to tell
us something sa save us, make us feel better.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
Evan Abrams, director of research. Talk to us the last
word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
Speaker 5 (50:47):
It's hilarious that Chad was one way on Kansas City.
Simon just brought it all the way back. And I'm
gonna start with Kansas City because we figured you guys
were going there anyway. Here's maybe an angle you haven't heard,
so I kind of put a few things together here.
So last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off
of by four times, four and oh straight up, four
and oh against the spread in his career.
Speaker 4 (51:04):
Here that Chad say it again one more time, Evan.
Speaker 5 (51:07):
It's four and oh three up and against the spread.
But that's just that last decade. So in his career
he's seven and two straight up in eight and one
against the number. Oh my god, terrible. But his two
losses if you think the other side is difficult, his
two losses are to Peyton Manning and twenty thirteen and
Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Real difficult there. Here's
the one that I thought was just ridiculous. So Kansas
City has gone sixteen straight regular season games without winning
(51:27):
the turnover margin. They're eleven and five in those games,
so they win no matter what. And maybe if you
get lucky, they get a few turnovers in this one.
All right, let's go to Tampa Bay. To me, this
bet is all about the number strictly. Even after a
twelve and oh ats run for road favorites the last
two weeks, road favorites of three and a half or
more are still just forty five percent. Since twenty twenty.
Here's the fun one. Lamar is five and nine as
(51:50):
a road favorite of three and a half for more
since twenty twenty. Here are the worst five quarterbacks ats
in that spot in that span. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,
Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. This is not an
easy spot for anybody, So play the number here and then.
I wasn't gonna do this, but I'll give you one
quick thing on Buffalo because I thought you guys earlier
(52:11):
in the week were maybe leaning on laying the number.
It's gotten up to nine, nine and a half, but
it's worth repeating. We've said it on the show before.
Alan has seventy two wins in his career. Fifty one
or seventy percent of those have all been by seven
points or more when the line six or more. He's
actually been in that spot forty two times, and of
those forty two, he's only lost eight in that scenario.
(52:33):
He usually does push the number up, and I tweeted
this early in the week. Will Levis one hundred and
fifty eight quarterbacks have started ten games in the last
twenty years. He's two and twelve against a second half spread.
So even if it's close at the half, he is
two and twelve second half ats in his career, and
outside of Monday Night Football where he's two and zero,
he is oh in twelve second half ats. So even
(52:56):
if it's close, you should be able to find a
way to get a pick six.
Speaker 1 (52:59):
There, guys, I mean, those are great, Evan, and I
think the tragedy is really that Will Levis's had two
games on Monday Night Football.
Speaker 4 (53:05):
That's also true.
Speaker 5 (53:06):
I think of beating the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins
at this.
Speaker 1 (53:08):
Point in his career, it's bills are nothing like bills
buy a million. Sorry Matt Mitchell, we might have just
mushed it, but it is what it is. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars
sund up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place
the bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars
(53:30):
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more whatever the moment, It's never
ordinary at bet three six five. Must be twenty one
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
(53:51):
or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms Conditions restrictions apply.
Speaker 3 (53:55):
Simon and I will.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Return with our next exciting episode. One of the favorites
on the Action Network. You two page on Sunday night,
seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL Week seven. Download
us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribed, leave us five stars, say whatever you want,
fedback as a gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (54:17):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Help us.
Speaker 5 (54:31):
Available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!