The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 9

Gamblers all over the country are getting their bets down as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with their favorite plays across the NFL Week 9 slate. Together they discuss a gross matchup against the Carolina Panthers, give some praise to the Green Bay Packers, provide their weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.

It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
live for my time in John Home Studio, and I'm
joined as always buy my co host, my companion, Mike
Padre my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Happy Halloween, Chad.

(00:36):
I should mention to people who are listening, Simon is
not going to sound like this the whole time. Simon
is wearing a scream mask in honor of Halloween. I'm
so scared. I don't know if I'm more scared of
the decisions we have to make today. What our big
balls bet of the week is going to be, what
our foxhol is going to be, That I stayed up

(00:58):
so late watching the Dodger Yankees last night that I
was live betting the Bulls when they were twenty down
and won my bet because I have so much confidence
in this team. Today is our NFL Week nine Best
Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five
picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

(01:18):
Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three six five sign
up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We'll get into
the foxhol We'll give out our Tommy John Big Balls
bet of the week. We're gonna discuss Simon's biggest bets.
We're gonna discuss our boosted money line Underdog parlay, which
you can get at Bet three sixty five. We'll talk
about the Underdog Round Robin, and so much more. Bets

(01:40):
are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.
As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say
there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder
of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six
five and now new Bet three sixty five customers get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five
dot sign up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars,

(02:03):
place the bet for five dollars to get two hundred
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty five must be
twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

(02:26):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season. We
like to hear how the wise guys are responding to
our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines
move based on our conversations, and the pros feel compelled

(02:50):
to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (02:59):
Hello there, I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
Rain telephone rang, somebody saying.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Maybe what you do man?

Speaker 2 (03:08):
Yeah, that's there for a game that me and Chad
probably aren't gonna talk about today, So we'll just got
out of the way. People know the professionals love the Jets.
I don't get it. Chat doesn't get it. Apparently the
trends do point to it, though, after reading Evan's article,
it's like, Okay, I can see why they liked this spot.
There are some some nice spots here to take this
Jets team. Historically, this is a good spot to take them.

(03:28):
I just don't think we've ever think we've seen something
like this historically with this team, and I know that
their record doesn't reflect who they are because of how
bad their kicker has been. And they look look like
they listened to us last week chat or on a
shit say. On Tuesday, they got rid of their kicker. Finally,
I think it's a little too late. I know Houston
has a ton of injuries. This got up to two
and a half at one point. I don know if
you saw Houston get up two and a half. I

(03:49):
had to take a piece of it once I got
to two and a half. Now it's back down to
one and a half. So do you want to bet
with the professionals tonight? They're not always right, but they
do like the Jets, But I am going to go
against them on the Houston side. All right, let's get
to the other games that actually matter. Off the top,
I mean, Chad talked about Tuesday, both liked it. Weren't

(04:09):
really sure what to do with it though, just because
the number had move so much. You know, it's it's
now down to one and a half for Cleveland. I
don't know where you're at with this Cleveland team. I
get why these guys are coming from. My whole pushback
to them was, you guys are all talking is if
you're not the ones that got this at three and
two and a half. Now me and Chad are coming
in for the scraps at one and a half. If

(04:30):
we like the Browns. That was my only pushback. I
get why the professionals love the Browns here, they love
the number, they think they're gonna win out right, totally
get it. Their season's turned around. Chad will go into
I guess more. But you nailed it when you said
it's the Winston effect.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Though.

Speaker 2 (04:43):
That's my hesitation here another game. I mean, you both
love the professionals are against us on Miami Dolphins, but wow,
I know there's some strong Dolphin money coming in. I
just think they're betting or wrong. Chad, I just think
they're betting wrong. I really do so. I haven't changed
my position on that. Still like the Bills, still think

(05:05):
that's a good spot for us, but shocked to find
out that a lot of professionals like that other side.
For games, we love the pros love Green Bay, no brainer.
That's when we'll dive way more into professionals love that.
I still think it's gonna go down to three. A
couple of books have already gone to three. Get the
three and a half while you still can. I just
think professional money. Once Jordan Love is given them all

(05:26):
good good to go today or tomorrow, this line will
drop to three again. We haven't talked much about that.
Maybe we will more today. Giants. The professionals actually liked Washington.
It's a little split. It's not as clear cut as
I thought I was going to be. It's interesting, Yeah,
I think it's something we talked about where this Giants

(05:48):
team is just very it's just bad. We've talked this
year about these bad teams and how bad they are.
Daniel Jones still isn't thrown a touchdown at home. It
is week nine.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
So I'm glad to hear this. We're gonna let's le's
get to the next one.

Speaker 2 (06:00):
We'll get into that more.

Speaker 1 (06:02):
Because like, the more research I did, the less I
liked your opinion about the Giants, So.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
I know I'm a sucker. I love the Giants again,
we both like. I don't think we're going to put
in our contest though, Tampa. I've heard some really smart
groups of coming on Tampa to me, that's such a
bet me and Chad always make just because it's a
huge number against the Chiefs. I don't think there's anything
sharp about it. Though I can't get a good read

(06:27):
on it. I got no interest putting this one in
another one that maybe we'll talk a little bit about
just a Again, we're on opposite sides of it. Professionals
like the Ravens, I like Denver. Maybe you want to
dive into that one more, But I think we're not
missing the mark here, that we're just playing the number
because it's such a big number and it's that Ravens defense.
Their view of it is this Ravens team is going

(06:48):
to roll this Denver team, that they're better all of it.
They believe in all of this Ravens hype, and especially
even after reading Eman's article, there's trends say take the
nine here with this Denver not only is Sharpayne great
is a big dog here. We talked about lamar struggles,
especially on it's above three and a half. He's just
a different quarterback. They usually played down to their competition levels.

(07:09):
So yeah, a lot to dive into. Chack pretty split
this week between us and the professionals.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
Well, that's interesting, and they touched on all the games
and sort of the challenges I was having as I
dug in deeper the past forty eight hours, as I
try to reimagine how we're framing our arguments here last week,
Week eight, Public nine and six, week before ten and four,
week before that ten three and one. So after five

(07:38):
weeks of getting crushed to the tune of the worst
start in twenty years for the public, they are now
dominating the past three weeks. So you know, we'd like
to fade the public. It's gone okay for us in
certain spots. Let's see how it rolls this week. First
game up Denver plus nine and a half at Baltimore.

(08:00):
As I go through this, the reasons to back Denver.
Their defense is fierce amongst the league leaders in pressure rate,
first in yards per attempt passing, tied for fourth in
yards per carry, all great pressure points against a Lamar
Jackson who was very efficient in the pocket, and a
Derrick Henry led run game Baltimore terrible in the second half.

(08:25):
That buildes well if you want to bet a dog
at a big number. They're now giving up more than
seventeen points per game in the second half worst in
the NFL. We know bow Knicks and the Broncos will
be slinging it no matter how late in the game
and what the score is. And we know, as you mentioned,
Lamar is a favorite Big number twenty nine and thirty
five in his career forty five percent against the spread.

(08:47):
I'm saying big number three or more. The reason we
don't like denver easy schedule. Bo Nicks is a wildcard
who can just as easily throw at least one pick
six to destroy the calculus. Denver's good against the Blitz.
Lamar is the best in the NFL against the Blitz.
And there is the sentiment that the Ravens are like

(09:13):
two or three mistakes cleaned up from figuring it out
and destroying this team. And like, that's what I worry about.
They had a like that was a cheap back door
cover the Commanders had against the Ravens a few weeks ago.
If you didn't get if you got the seven and
a half, the Ravens won by seven because they gave

(09:34):
up some you know, a PI that put the Commanders
in field goal range. I could see that being the
case here too. Like, I'm so split on this game.
I do not want to put in the contest. I
do not feel strongly about it.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
Yeah, I think it's just because of bow knicks that
were both little weary, even though he is what three
and oh or four and o on the road this
season even and he's something yeah, four and oh. So
I mean, we can't knock it. The guys performed well
in the road and this team has as well, so
maybe our skepticism isn't warranted. But we just it's just
a numbers thing, right. I don't get why this number

(10:09):
is so large, and the books tend to know what
they're doing when they set numbers like this, but man,
this this is a tough one to pass. Unluckily we
have other games we like more. But I'm gonna bet it.
It's like the hot stove thing I got to touch
and make sure it's hot. That's how That's what I'm
doing here with this this Denver team. It's like, I know,
I know we shouldn't do it, but I kind of

(10:30):
have to do it, just because I'm so skeptical of this.
This secondary for this Ravens team and people out there.
You don't need to you don't need to take this one.
You can wait and do in game best. I just
laid it out for you how you should bet this right.
You should attack Denver in the second half, so you know,
if they're down ten to nothing at a halftime or
fourteen three, maybe you'll get a better number and you

(10:51):
can just take them to cover the second half like that.
That probably is to play for this contest, though, for
what we do here. If I'm just gonna take the
name the numbers strip from the get go, I'm gonna
go against the professionals here. I'll take Denver in this
big number. It's it's just to me, it's too big.
If this was seven and a half maybe seven, I
could come around this Ravens team. The fact that it's
crossed seven and a half key number, eight and a half

(11:11):
key number and still at nine. I'll be the joke
public sucker. I'll take the nine.

Speaker 1 (11:16):
Well, look, the Ravens in the first half has been
sort of the sharp play this week if you read
anything on Action Network, if you listen to Stucky and
Raybon on the Action Network podcast in their Sunday six
pack Stuck, he chose the Ravens first half. A couple
other stories on Action Network, they like the Ravens first half.

(11:37):
Evan probably has a ton of stats. I don't know
if he'll do it in his segment later about the
Ravens in first half. If not, you know, ev you
can throw it in the chat and we'll bring them
up here. But the Ravens in the first half with
Harbaugh and with Lamar have really been, you know, unprecedentedly great.
I think the number is probably about five if I
had to guess, So Ravens in the first half might

(11:57):
be a safer, not a safe play for the contest.
I will tell you. Normally I can make a list
of like five or six games I feel good about
that we're going to put in the contest. I could
not do that with this. Like I had two games,
I'm like, yes, I feel great by this morning. I
maybe had three, But I like didn't feel great about

(12:21):
a lot of games. One of the games, like I
definitely started coming around to New England plus three and
a half at Tennessee. The trends back taking the Pats
do that. Teams off off a blowout loss, who are
then favored at home, only cover forty two percent of

(12:42):
the time the following week. The past twenty years interesting
money and tickets both on the Pats, and this number
hasn't budge that worries me a little bit. Are we
getting Will Levis at QB seems likely? Are getting Jacoby
Brivett seems likely? But then there's this, and we've talked
about this. Hey, the Titans think like they're tanking. They've

(13:04):
traded away every player of value. This week it was
Deontay Johnson. I'm not I'm thinking about the Panthers, but
the Titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The
Titans just played the Lions. Teams coming off a game
against the Lions tend to creator the next game because
it is such a physical game. We just saw it

(13:25):
with the Vikings too. That is a hard road to
travel and then be a home favorite of more than
a field goal. That feels like an opportunity for us.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Yeah, we talked on Tuesdays is a bizarre line. We
knew it was gonna be the public dog of the
week because everyone's you know, they're they're like us, They're
looking at this saying, what in the world, what is
this number? Why is it not just two and a
half or three? You're gonna give us the hook. If
it's a trap, me and chat will walk into it
holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here?
This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team
is terrible. How can you not better the Patriots to

(14:00):
win this game out right? As well? It's just everything
lines up where say what you want about this Patriots
team and how bad they are. We know it. We
know how bad Brissette is. We know how bad the receivers.
I think they're leading the league and drops they had
before Jacoby Meer, I mean, h Drake ny came in.
They basically were at the thirty second in the league
and passes twenty yards downfield. It's it's bad with the Brissette,

(14:24):
I get it, but it's not as bad as everything
that we just talked about Tennessee, especially if it's Will Levis.
This guy just makes so many dumb mistakes and now
he knows he I mean, how can you find a
more desperate quarterback in this league? If he starts this
game right like he just he knows that he might
have one or two games left in his career. So
I'm with you on it, like I I'm with you

(14:46):
about the hesitation though, like we don't like that this
number hasn't budged. The books seem like they're setting something
up here, But we could say that for every week
this year, for the most part of this Tennessee team,
there's been we are talking about, there's been a bunch
of games they were favorite at home against different teams,
or the number didn't look right to mean you and
we avoided it, and that was a bad miss by us.
We shouldn't have been avoiding betting against this Tennessee team.

(15:07):
They've just been terrible all season. So I'm gonna do
my best not to let us get scared off by
this on Sunday if we still are getting three and
a half.

Speaker 1 (15:15):
I think it's their defense. I think people are looking
at their defense, which has performed well top ten in
many metrics, and I think it's sort of everyone keeps thinking, Okay,
their defense can do enough to stop an opposing offense.
Even if you look at last week, right, they played
the Lions fifty two points scored, but that's because of

(15:36):
turnovers and special teams. Jared Goff had eighty five yards
passing like the Titans had more often too production than
the Lions did, So I think they just keep thinking, Okay,
every week this team will be able to prove that
they can stop somebody. But they don't play complimentary football.

(15:57):
So every good play that the Titans make, every good
series the Titans have on defense gets given back and
more in a negative effect with what the offense does
and so or special teams. Now, so I get it.
I get it. It's it's a tough one. Like I
have it on my list of like final five. Me too,

(16:19):
but I don't love it and it makes me a
little queasy. It does feel a little trappy, but not Foxholt.
It's not our big balls Better the Week, because our
big balls Better the Week, presented by Tommy John. If
you got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great

(16:40):
games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest
Our big ball Better the Week. New Orleans at Carolina.
This one is up to seven and a half. Simon,
it was at seven, and I think it's trending at eight.
It was at seven when we spoke on two. We

(17:01):
liked it. Then the Saints minus seven and a half. Look,
it's it's oddly a pros Joe's game with the public
on the Panthers and the money on the Saints, and
like the money that has moved it to seven and
a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on
this game to have any kind of credible formula at all.

(17:23):
It is by far the least bet game of any
NFL game, according to the number of tickets tracked in
the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of
tickets on the Panthers. But here we are. We live
in a world in which we have to choose between
the Saints and the Panthers. We've decided to cast our
lot with the Saints as more than touchdown favorites with

(17:45):
a on the road in the division, all bad trends
for us. YEP, a quarterback in Derek Carr who is
not just one of the worst in the NFL as
a favorite, he is one step up from last as
a favorite against the spread in the past twenty years.
He's got a coach who was amongst the worst ten
coaches against the spread in the past twenty years. But

(18:09):
we're doing it, and I feel.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
Fine, Yeah, you left out the best part. The Saints
have lost six games in a row since starting too,
and uh, I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here.

Speaker 1 (18:18):
So you know what, Yeah, this is You're right this
We slacked about it earlier and like I couldn't. I
was giving you a couple options, like for big balls,
and this was on the list, and you chose this one,
and I'm like, yeah, this makes sense, this one takes bass.

Speaker 2 (18:34):
We're finally doing it, though, I'm so happy on this show.
We're finally fading this Carolina team for our fans.

Speaker 1 (18:40):
For a listener, No, we're fucked.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
That's what I was about to say. This is only
going to end in one way, and it's gonna be
us losing this as in one of over five, but
we have to do it. Carolina is so bad. They've
totally put on the season on the Saints on their hand.
This feels like they're everything game right. This is where
they can maybe turn around this season. They need this
one desperately. They know if you lose this and you're
two and seven, you are done. But if you can

(19:04):
get to three and six, there's an outside chance. Obviously
they can somehow get to a wildcard, especially if they're
getting healthy at the right time. So the biggest thing
to us was just it. If it was Derek Carr,
I was going to be on this number just because
he is the difference maker to that team We've seen offensively,
they just they run differently when he's back there. Right,
they can run what they want to do, which is
run the ball with play action like that's what really

(19:27):
made them so great those first two weeks. Here comes
the Carolina team that struggles against a lot of what
the Saints want to do offensively. So I'm not gonna
let this huge numer scare me off. It's this This
Panther team is that bad that this should be that high,
even though it is the Saints team. And about time, Chad,
About time we fade a team that is one in

(19:47):
what eight or one in seven against the spread this season.
So better late than never is what I always say.
So I'm happy we're finally getting this this fade the
Carolina Panthers stream.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
I feel like this is historic for us. I don't
know in the history of us being brothers in arms,
we've ever faded a team in this spot. We've passed.
We've decided we wouldn't touch it because we didn't want
to tempt the betting gods and do something that is

(20:20):
so chalky and that. But it's not this week, but
in sort of historical terms, we don't want to bet
against this trend of a home dog. We don't want
to bet against this trade of the home dog in
the division. It's one of those times we're just looking
at the matchup. We're seeing Derek Carr, who's healthy and

(20:42):
above excuse excuse me an above average quarterback when he's healthy,
playing against the defense that cannot get pressure, cannot cover,
gets blown out by everybody. We're believing our eyes. We
got a quarterback who really is as bad as we
think he is. This is the spot big balls better

(21:04):
the week New Orleans Saints. Our sponsor Tommy John makes
a bet like this Comfortable because it's the most comfortable
underwear I've ever worn. Totally changed my life, changed my
perspective on what underwear should be. And also shirts, sweatpants
and pajamas. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better.

(21:25):
If you love Simon or and I, if you love
this show, you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent
off your first order right now at Tommy john dot
com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent at Tommy John
dot com slash Favorites this next game. This is a
litmus test game to me. I've changed my mind on
this game, Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a

(21:47):
half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as
Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past forty eight hours.
Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I
walked into the Cincinnati bear trap last week and you
try to talk me out of it, called me a fool.
I didn't deal with it, and I got screwed. All
of Atlanta's defense has come, all of Atlanta's offense has

(22:10):
come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk
Cousins literally eight touchdowns one thousand yards against the Panthers
and the Bucks, like against any defense with a decent
pass rush and people who can cover, They're a mediocre team.
So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent

(22:31):
pass rush? Probably not. Micah Parsons still was not practiced.
By the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy, he wasn't
close to getting back on the field. Cornerback Dron Bland
was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know
what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys we better in coverage.
Are they a team that has shown they have the

(22:51):
ability to respond to adversity?

Speaker 3 (22:54):
Not?

Speaker 1 (22:54):
Really. This is a split across the board. You know,
we didn't talk about it in sharp calls, Like I
wanted to bet the Cowboys on Tuesday. He kind of
talked me out of it. If this game gets to three,
I'd probably want to bet the Cowboys. I don't feel
good enough to put it in the contest for sure.

Speaker 2 (23:15):
No, No, I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just
a bad team. You know, last week we took him
because he thought they had major injuries with the forty
nine ers, and we should have adjusted right when Kittle
and Debo came back, that should have been our Marke.
They move off it. We didn't take it seriously. What happened.
Kittle had like the game of his life, right, He
dominated that game, and he kind of flipped it. They

(23:36):
lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh once again.
I'd make that bet ten out of ten times, especially
this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky, right.
Dak drove the field on a fourth down, completed this
insane past his third receiver to beat us. Then they
beat the Giants, you know, and a kind of another
flukey win. And then they opened the season by beating Cleveland.

(23:57):
So they have three wins this season easily could have
won maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team.
They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting
money on them right now. That they got to be
feeling in the locker room and there's no adjustments to make.
They can't stop the run, and they can't run the football.
There's nothing they can do. Chad. They're dead in the water.
There is no adjustments to be made, and all the players,

(24:19):
it's just we knew coming to the season it was
gonna be bad for them. I didn't know it was
gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just
it's terrible. So could they steal this game? Chad? Yeah,
I think you nailed it. Like whoever is the Ball Last?
I talked about this on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't
bet it either. It's like bet I did bet Atlanta,
I should say, but I wouldn't make this one over
five because it's whoever is the Ball Last? I could
see them winning this game, right, it's Cowboys Dak. He's

(24:41):
that good of a quarterback him and see that connection.
They could drive the field. I mean, we had the
opportunity to get to forty nine ers. They could have
drove the field and got It's that upset win. I
think that's what we're gonna have every week with this
Cowboys team. They play mediocre teams, right, and that's what
this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great
of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it.
But yeah, there's threes out there if you do want

(25:02):
the Cowboys chat. I am on Atlanta, but it's one
of my smaller bets. I just I'm having a tough
time with this one, just as you just because we
don't really trust either of these teams right now for
a bunch of different reasons. So I'm with you. I'm
happy to pass on this one for the contest.

Speaker 1 (25:16):
You know, you mentioned Dak and CD like they're not
even connecting emotionally, do you know what I mean? Like
it feels like there's some thing missing in what is
supposed to be a simpatico relationship between the quarterback and
the receiver and I know it can be tempestuous at times,

(25:39):
but like they got to be in the same page,
and they don't seem to be. And I do think Dak,
you know, we talked about this on Convinced Me. Kerner
talked about it, you know, referring to Dak as mal
Santa and giving out under his rushing props he had
negative one rushing yard. He looks not just immobile, but

(26:00):
a statuesque back there. You could see it a few times.
I think at one point Collins when he was rolling
out Chris Collins were said, he just looks like he
doesn't have it. Something weird is going on there. And
now they're giving these guys, you know, hundreds of millions
of dollars.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
I'll say this though, I mean they clearly it's it's
just tough. It's footballs and everyone knows the ball is going.
But last week CD had thirteen catches on seventeen targets
for one hundred and forty six yards and two touchdowns,
and then the week before that he had fourteen targets.
We only had seven catches, So clearly Dak knows the deal.
Though Dak is just force feeding this guy because of
what we just talked about like he has no other

(26:37):
real options. So I agree with you. It hasn't worked out.
But it's just this is life when you just have
two players and nothing else, right, Like, there's just only
so much these two guys can do, and you're right,
they're both kind of cratering to the pressure.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
I guess Miami at Buffalo Buffalo minus six. This was
my exact decision. Yeah, I loved it on Sunday night
when it was at six. It's bad up to six
and a half. It's come down to half point. That
worries me. You mentioned on sharp Calls there's some love
for Miami. Yeah, I like Josh Allen defies the trends.

(27:10):
You know in the NFL historically betting against the spread,
you want to bet on the underdog in the division.
That's not what you do with Josh Allen. Josh Allen
is over five hundred. He is an ROI positive bet
against the spread as a favorite in the division. And
then the two A trends to me outweigh what people

(27:34):
might be believing in sort of the development of the Dolphins.
Tua is two and ten straight out, three eight and
one against the spread away from home, versus winning teams
in his NFL career career, and to me, it really
becomes like Finns offense versus Bill's defense. Even Tua has
been out, you can't really sort of vest any confidence

(27:59):
in those. But the Bill's rush offense has been top
three in the league across the majority of metrics, supervisial,
advanced whatever, and defense tackling is amongst the league's worst.
So trend wise, matchup wise, I could see the Bills.
This is a place they tend to dominate. I'm still

(28:20):
not worried about it.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Nope. This is one of my bigger bets that week.
Tons of money on this Bills team. I hope, I
hope professionals get Bett in this. But give me a
five and a half, that'd be great. Yeah, I'm right
there with you. Usually I don't love these spots, but
Josh Allen's different him and this matchup is different as well. Right,
we talked about two on the road. Now it's too
on the road against a team above five hundred, which
he struggles against in his career. It doesn't matter if

(28:43):
it was his best season of his career or his
worst season his career. He always struggles in this exact spot,
So you know, maybe they'll get lucky Chad, but we
know long term this is a winning bet. So this
is a bet that we're gonna make this year, We'll
make next year as long as we can until Miami
changes who they are, until Josh Allen falls off the cliff,
and he's nowhere near that cliff right now. Like this

(29:04):
is arguably the best we've ever had Josh Allen, especially
betting wise, Like he's just so locked in even you
know we knew his pick was coming last week. He
was so due. He's had incredible luck this season. That
doesn't worry me at all. He could overcome two turnovers
in this matchup, just because I think we're gonna get
opportunities with Tua. He just does not look comfortable. He's

(29:24):
still doing the one to two Mississippi in his head
and then getting rid of the ball because he's just
so terrified to take a hit right now, So I
love it. We got we got a Billston that's playing free.
Josh Allen is really embracing the whole thing of there
is no superstar in this team. I can get the
ball to whoever I want, and end of the day,
no one's gonna be bitching at me, and he's just

(29:45):
he looks a completely different guy, like a weight is
truly off his shoulders. So yeah, Bill's at home six
points or maybe even five and a half for our contest, Chad,
I love this to be one of our five.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
Josh Allen right now odds on favorite to win in
the he in the NFL, that's fair. Who knows. Like
the way this team is playing, I'm still banking on
Jared Goff, but could end up being Josh Allen.

Speaker 2 (30:11):
Yeah, Chad knows, But don't get mad at Chad. Chad knows.
If we flipped Jared Goff and Josh Allen, we know
who the better quarterback is. It's just, you know, MVP,
Like we always say, it's it's really about that one seed.
So I still think there is value on your golf,
Beck because he could easily be the one seed. And
you know, it's as good as the Bills have been.

(30:31):
You know, it is tough to get that one seed,
but they do have the division to do it. And
so that to me is the biggest, the biggest thing.
Who's gonna win this MVP is gonna be Who's gonna
be that one seed.

Speaker 1 (30:39):
Chad Well, honestly, that's why I made the bet, Simon, Like,
I just looked at you know, gaming it out. We
know it's a quarterback award, Yeah, we know. It usually
goes to the quarterback whose team played the best over
the course of the season in a mostly dominant way.
They'll lose two games at the most, maybe three, and

(31:01):
the Bills had already lost a couple of games, and
the Bills have to overtake the Chiefs who are undefeated.
So to me, this just felt like, you know, if
I'm handicapping, which is what this is, what's going to
be capping that over the course of the season, the
Lions would have a better chance to win their conference,
then have a better record with Jared Goff, and there'd
be sentiment like he'd have a great year, he's overcome

(31:24):
so much. There'd just be people who want to back them.

Speaker 2 (31:26):
You know.

Speaker 1 (31:27):
Sometimes this is about a story Los Angeles Chargers now
minus one and a half at Cleveland. You brought it
up on Sharp Calls. Yeah, listen, man, I'm like, I've
dug so deep in this one. And this this is
when betting gets fun, because I do feel like people

(31:47):
are not giving enough credit to the Chargers, or they
are giving Jamis and the Browns too much credit. They
are literally banking on Jamis and this offense being so
much better than it was with DeShawn and everyone getting
healthier on offense and defense. So they are reevaluating and
rerating the Browns. But I do look at the Chargers

(32:10):
d as a comp to the Ravens, who the Browns
just beat miraculously. Right, the Chargers are much better in coverage,
much better in passing EPA, expected points allowed equal in sack, right,
better against the run in the box with six or
fewer defenders. They've actually started passing the boar passing the

(32:34):
ball more the past couple of weeks, which means they
are putting the ball in their best players hands, justin Herbert,
who is not a turnover machine the way Jamis is.
I don't know that there's a real edge here. It's
about what we think we are seeing, and we're either
jumping off the wave of the Browns or we're going
to keep writing it with Jamis, And like, are we

(32:56):
taking a stand here that we just don't believe Jamis
won't throw the ball into coverage and turn the ball
over the way he should have against the Ravens if
anyone in their defensive backfield could catch the ball.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
Yeah, I'm I'm I'm gonna sucker. I'm gonna ride it,
and I'm gonna do the coward move though, like I
probably won't pust in our contests because I'm just gonna
throw this in a teaser. Give me up to seven
and a half with this Cleveland team, because you said
a lot of nice things by the Chargers. I don't
think the Chargers are a good team. I think they've
just benefited from having a really easy schedule. And this
is what this team does, right. We talked to Harby identity,

(33:32):
they just they don't beat themselves. They let these other
teams make the mistakes. And even watching that Saints game,
like you know, I don't know if it was the
first quarter, maybe into the second quarter, it was like,
how is the Saint team even keeping this close? They
hadn't they have a rotating door of rookie Qbs right
now at quarterback and Herbert was keeping him in it.
And then eventually, like we talked about, Herbert realized, oh,

(33:52):
I'm a top five quarterback in this league. I can
make these throws. I just need to trust my guy,
and he made big time I'm throws in that game.
So I get why you want to take the Chargers.
They're They're probably the more complete team. But I can't
quit this Browns team, especially knowing how desperate they are.
Just the whole mood and momentum is shifted in this

(34:12):
locker room now that it is Jamis. That's why I'm
like Chad talking about I'm taking the teaser though, just
because of Jamis, Like it's I I just can't get
it over the Coyle Hamilton drop, Like that's what we're
gonna get from Jamis in this game. So that's why
I don't want to make this one of our five.
But for the people out there, I am going to
make this a teaser bet with this team. You know,
you compare them with the Eagles, you compare it with

(34:34):
the Bengals, wherever you want to throw it in the
other side. But I just look at this as a
nice leg to a getting them up to seven a half,
just because we've seen this Chargers team, right, they like
to keep these games close, especially against teams that are
kind of at the same level as they are. And
you know, this Brown's defense at home. I know they're
not the same as they were last year. They're still
pretty damn good overall, and they could still get after

(34:54):
the quarterback. I think that that to me is where
I'm flipped a little bit. So, yeah, I guess we
disagree on this one.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
Brother, dude, it's so hard, like it feels trappy to
bet the Chargers as the road favorite. You're going against
what the sharps are saying. We've seen the number come.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
Down three and a half. Now it's down to one
and a half.

Speaker 1 (35:18):
Yeah, and so I don't know if it keeps going down,
at some point, we might have to bet the Chargers
as an underdog. And I don't know. I don't mind
doing that. I just it just something here feels off
like Jamis is not a good bet.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
He's just not. How dare you?

Speaker 1 (35:37):
It's it's just like people are.

Speaker 2 (35:40):
Right, Evan, He's good as an underdog, not as a favorite.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
Just feels like we're missing an opportunity here. We don't
have a Foxhall yet. We don't have a Foxhole. I'm
telling you right now, Washington and New York Giants, I'm
glad the wise guys sort of walk you off from
this because it was silliness, Like, I know you want
to back the Giants. I was again on Tuesday. I
think they are a dreadful team. They are a dreadful
team at home. They now lost Andrew Thomas, who was

(36:06):
the only reason to even give any hope to this team.
Tyrone Tracy, who's been their best offensive weapon. He's probably
not playing because of concussion. Daniel Jones can't throw a
touchdown at met Life. There's severe turmoil in that locker
room with Daniel Jones taking the heat for going after
players and day Ball not defending him. It's got the

(36:26):
New York Post into goddamn tizzy, Like I don't think
there's any The wise guys are right here. You take
Washington and you don't take anybody.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
I guess I'm a sucker. I'm a sucker for paint.
I'm they can't tuck me off it. I'm dugging on
the Giants. But this is the game I have not
made a single bet on because of what Chad has
talked about. Like, I don't know what the injuries are
right now. This number is only gonna go up, like
it's it's three and a half in a couple of books.
I'm seeing four now at a couple of books pop
up as well, so it's like, okay, when is it

(37:00):
I mentually up to four and a half, Like that's
when I'll come in on the other side. But everything
you said is right. This team is terrible right now.
They're dysfunctional and they're just brutal at home. Like Daniel
Jones at home. I don't know what it is, but
he is horrible playing against teams at home. And you know,
like you said, there's just nothing to want to build

(37:20):
off of that. Like even last week at Pittsburgh game,
it was right there for them to get the cover
and everything like that, and they just don't do it.
They've been that way this whole season. They just disappointed
in so many different ways.

Speaker 1 (37:31):
So Pittsburgh the Bengals, Like, yeah, it's such a shame.
They're wasting a great year from their defense. And there
were pretty low expectations for their defense before the season began,
and I feel like their defense has really been incredible,
great defensive line, they've been really good in coverage, much
better than expected. It's a shame they can't figure it out.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
And like, I hate your Chargers, Bet I'd rather sweat
the Chargers and sweat the Giants, which I think a
day is what I'm getting to with our contest, which
is like, am I gonna be able to sleep at
night knowing I gave out the Giants in our contest
to our lovely fans. I wouldn't because I just wouldn't
feel terrible because they.

Speaker 1 (38:10):
Are, especially when we're giving out the Saints a seven
and a half point favorite on the road.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
I mean, we love Chalk this week, I'll be honest. So, yeah,
I'm cool with miss not taking this one in there,
just because I'm going to force in that Packers bet,
which is not the same obviously in any way. But
it's like, Okay, at least you're giving me a home
to ugly home divisional dog that I love and doesn't
need to be this one. It can. I'm easily gonna
be the Green Bay instead.

Speaker 1 (38:34):
We're gonna get to Green Bay in a second, and
we still owe people of foxhol and we're kind of
running out of room here. We'll quickly go over the
Bears like I would steal back the Bears.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
You're a sucker though you were sucked in on that
on Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
Yeah, I know, but I've I've changed my tune a
little bit. Like you were with me. You recognize as
dogs of the right side, but you couldn't get yourself
the time.

Speaker 2 (38:59):
I said I would just stay away from it, and
then they flipped.

Speaker 1 (39:01):
Through the dog. I'm going to get there. I'm going
to give you the like I'm going to give you
the out. You don't want to bet them because the
fallout which I get.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
Please don't make me bet this team.

Speaker 1 (39:09):
And it has not been pretty. Braxton Jones, their left tackle,
like Kayleb Williams, was running for his life after he
left the game. He is probably out. He did not
practice on Wednesday. Hit his backup who was so bad
Kayleb Williams basically couldn't get a pass off. He is

(39:29):
likely out. So they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Montes Sweat did not practice on Wednesday either. I think
he'll play, but they're also missing multiple defensive backs. The
Car's defense is truly terrible, but what's interesting to me
is the bare strength at full force is their ability
to rush the passer and pass coverage. The cards strength

(39:52):
offensively is Kyler in pure chaos. So the worst at
his for him when the defense is good and getting
to him the better he plays. All that makes me
not want to bet the Bears anymore. Also, I agree
with you like reading it this week, obsessing about it,
like there is a lot of disappointment in the Bear's

(40:13):
locker room in how eber Flus not only handled the
Hail Mary strategically, the lack of coaching that happened in
the moment, and how he responded to reporters after the game,
where I think a lot of folks felt like he
threw the players under the bus and said they know
what to do, they didn't do it like you box

(40:35):
out you mark a man. I think that was not
taken kindly. And the fact that they gave the ball
to a backup center at the goal line instead of
just you know, running it as they should with two
minutes left and fumbled it away and put them all
under a much different kind of strain. So to me,

(40:55):
we're walking away from this game. I will not invest.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
Based off what you said too. Like I already liked
the under in this matchup, it makes me like it
even more now because you just said it. How are
the Bears going to move the ball offensively, and we've
seen them struggle this year. Caleb, especially on the road
this season. He's just been different his home and waste
butits are very, very different. So that that jumps out
to me. On the flip side too, I still think Eve,
one of your guys injuries, you're a really good secondary.

(41:20):
So I think Kyler, as good as he is in
scramble mode, they're not going to make it easy for him.
I don't think they're gonna have that many big plays.
So yeah, if you don't want to take a side
in this one, I do like the under here forty
four and a half.

Speaker 1 (41:31):
There will not be a side in this one. We
haven't done Foxhall yet and I don't know I got.

Speaker 2 (41:35):
One coming up if you if you want to talk
about it, all.

Speaker 1 (41:37):
Right, I do want to talk about it because in
my list, I don't know that any of these would
be it. We like the Rams at one and a
half point interesting. Yeah, wow, you are going hardcore on
this team because we liked him at one and a
half just because the.

Speaker 2 (41:52):
Professionals on another side, So I like that. I like
that it's we're going against the pros here in this one.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
So we liked it at one and a half on
Sunday Night. Rams is underdogs. It's flipped. We don't love
betting on the team that it flipped towards, So now
the Rams are the favorite. That is a bad spot
historically true, like the Seahawks have played terrible against the
run this season, but like top ten in total yards allowed,

(42:20):
top top ten in yards per carry aloud, top ten
in EPA against the run. Everybody, like we know Sean
McVay is a run first coach and Kyrin Williams has
been carrying the ball as a top five running back
in the NFL. The question is man the road dog

(42:40):
in this spot fifty four percent against the spread the
past five seasons. That's great since we've already bet the
Rams at plus one and a half, you know, the
home dog fifty one percent, So not like advantageous for
Seattle in this spot. But I don't love like that

(43:02):
we're betting against the flip and that like maybe that's
I should discount that. But dude, like I've learned one
person say they like the Rams his favorites in this game,
Like that is if we're doing that, that is legit, Foxhall.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
It is and I think it's Evan had a great
piece of article about it. It's McVeigh off extended Russ.
He's actually not been that good in his career, and
same goes for Stafford. So I get the hesitation, right,
This is to me are even though we have a
couple of really public bets this week, this is the
most public bet, like the Seattle couldn't be any lower
right now. They are just a bad team, and that's

(43:42):
my biggest thing. Your chie, They're a bad team. They're
bad against good teams. And you know Gina Smith in
his career, he's only three and nine against the spread
at home in Seattle. Like he's not performed well at
all in Seattle. And people think it's different because my
whole life, I mean my whole betting life, Seattle at home,
especially with Russell Wilson, no brainer, easy bet, especially if

(44:03):
they were an underdog. It's not been the same with
Gino and they're just that that whole Peak Carroll identity
is totally gone now. So I think the people need
to adjust, the books need to adjust this line. If
it was to Chad, I probably would stay away from
because you know how I obsessed with that key number.
I think the value shifted back now to this Rams team,
and I know we both got it plus one and
a half. I got pennies down on that. Like my

(44:24):
real big money bets that I bet on this Rams
team have all come and minus one, minus one and
a half. So yeah, I just think the books haven't
adjusted to Puka and Cooper Cup being back and how
that's going to boost this run game in so many
different ways. I mean, you saw it last week, Puka
blocking He is so good because he's huge. I mean,
this is a huge receiver on the outside who just

(44:46):
can bully these small corners. So I just think both
those guys add so much to the passing game and
the rushing game. But yeah, this is this is definitely
an island game for us, But this is us in
the public like the professionals are on the other side.
So to me, this is why I like making this
one of their Foxholt bets, because it really is us
jumping in against these pros here.

Speaker 1 (45:06):
You know what, I'm glad to hear you say this
because I haven't seen anything to make me not like
the Rams other than the trends. I actually really like
their young defense. I love the Rams as an organization.
I think they draft well. I think mcveigh's a great coach.
I think less Sneed has done an incredible job bringing

(45:28):
talent and getting rid of guys at peak, you know,
like the old Cowboys used to do. And I'm not
afraid of it. We're in the foxhol We're on the Rams.
We are against everybody on this We are truly in
a foxhill on this one. This is a huge, huge

(45:49):
wise excuse me, it's a choking me up, a huge,
huge wise guy play. All Right, we're in the foxhil
La Rams minus one and a half. I don't want
this to make us beholden to put them in the contest.
That makes me a little nervous. But we're in the foxhall.
Let's clide down into the fox hole.

Speaker 2 (46:11):
Okay. And now I have other favorites I like more.
I just I really love this RAMS team, and this,
to me is such a good spot. We're still I
feel like getting good value on them, just because the
books haven't adjusted to what they are now, which is
a healthier team.

Speaker 1 (46:24):
Detroit at green Bay, green Bay three and a half.
This was Simon says. I will say this is the
game I've bet the most done this week. I've enjoyed
getting the money down at three and a half. It's
been getting closer and closer to three. Nothing I've seen
changes me my mind from putting use in the contest
total pro Joe split. The packerds pass blocking is elite

(46:45):
this season. So how will the Lions get any pressure?
I think that's still a real hole for them without
Aden Hutchinson. Whether it could be a factor. Wind is
in the ten to fifteen mile per hour range.

Speaker 2 (46:58):
Jared Goff has a bad.

Speaker 1 (46:59):
Ankle, potentially rain. We're gonna get to golf. Matt Lafleur
twenty four and eleven as a dog sixty nine percent
in his career. We're selling peak Lions. I don't mind
getting off the Lions. They've been so good to us.
Like Jared Goff outside in weather, he's generationally great inside

(47:24):
outside not so much. And so this is the time
that you gotta go all in on the Packers here.

Speaker 2 (47:34):
Yeah, and just the you can say what you want,
right with Jordan Love being banged up, but we I
just talked about it. Golf is banked up as well.
He didn't practice yesterday. He's got a bad ankle and
you know, this is the type of matchup where, yes,
is it scary betting against this Detroit team for me
and Chad, of course, we've just seen them just dominate
everyone they've faced. But we talk all the time divisional

(47:57):
games are different and that's when you really have to
just trust the number. And you know, they remember what
was it two three weeks ago they tried scaring off.
We thought the Detroit number was way too easy against
that Vikings team. What was it two and a half
down to one and a half? Yeah, line didn't make sense.
All of a sudden, it came down to you know,
Minnesota had the ball, they were about to go up
three with an extra going for two, and at one

(48:19):
point it was landed right on one and it was like, okay,
either we're gonna get lucky with the cover here or
we're gonna get this outright win by this Lion's team.
And it feels the same way here with green Bay
where we're getting a great number with the hook on
the three and a half, and we both believe green
Bay can easily win this game. Like they are a
good team, they're so well coached. You know, this field's
gonna be extra wet, They're gonna water this field right

(48:41):
before tip off. And I just love this Green Bay
team with this matchup. It was just like last week,
like I played the number against Green Bay because I
thought they were going to look ahead spot that they
were gonna kind of play down to their competition. This
is they know this is basically for their season. Same
thing as we were back to Colts last week against Houston.
Like you get these divisional teams and these kind of
matchups where you put the human element to it of

(49:05):
these guys know like they know they need this for
the division. There is an extra oomph to that, the
extra effort, extra motivation, these type of spots. So you
know I'd grab like I said on Tuesday, I grab
it now people. I do think once everything is clear
with Jordan Love, this does go down to three and
it stays there. Yeah, kickoff. It just feels like the
professional side where the public is going to come in

(49:27):
so heavy on Thetroit Detroit team, where they don't realize
this is this is where you want to hop off
for this week. So I don't say this, I'm not
saying this is a scheduled loss, but there are kind
of games like that, right. We always talk about teams
aren't going to just lose one or two games in
the entire season. That's those are really rare outliers. Those
teams are you know, either being extremely lucky or like

(49:47):
the you know, nineteen to oh Patriot team, that's just
the most dominant team we've ever seen put it together.
So respect to Detroit, we think they're a great team,
but this is such a spot for this Green Bay team.

Speaker 1 (49:57):
Yeah, this is one of the games when I bet
you're go off to be MVP. I expected him to lose, right,
you know, like he's banged up, it's outside. It's just
sort of he won't play another game outside the rest
of the year unless you count the Cowboys.

Speaker 2 (50:12):
You know, when he's going to soldier field.

Speaker 1 (50:14):
Oh, he's got to go to a soldier field other
than that, like outside against the Cowboys. If the if
the roof is open, but doesn't really count. All right,
last game to discuss indy five and a half at Minnesota. Yeah,
Joe Flacco is starting now.

Speaker 2 (50:30):
Joe.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
It's been really interesting, like since this was announced forty
eight hours ago, the analysis about Anthony Richardson across the punditry,
social media, you know, column inches spilled on internet machines.
It's been fascinating, like so many people sort of decrying

(50:53):
the idea that completion percentage is how you should be
judging Anthony Richardson and then looking deeper and looking at
the choices he makes when he doesn't complete a pass
and the leverage position that he is putting his team
in positively and the net ROI if he completes a
downfield pass, and really great and interesting analysis that makes

(51:18):
completion percentage not a great way to measure his development
because it's terrible like the past twenty five years. I
think Akille Smith as the only guy with a worse
completion percentage. But Joe Flacco, despite like the brilliance we
think he brings, and you know he's not exactly is
he likes to say elite? No, So are the Colts

(51:42):
better off short and long term? As an unabashed Richardson backer,
where do you stand on this?

Speaker 2 (51:49):
I hate it? Like this is why I always say
these teams you can just be so screwed if you
have the wrong owner. And this to me is an
owner move, and we talk all the time in life,
you never want to make a decision out of anger.
And this was to me a decision made out of anger,
because if it was logic, the logical move would have
been do this a week ago against Houston, like that

(52:11):
would have made more sense. Okay, the coaches make this
change here because they want to see they can beat
Houston here and steal this division. They didn't. And you
know when they interviewed Change Styke and it seemed like
even he was kind of alluding to, Yeah, this ain't me.
This is the owner making this decision here. So I
feel bad for Colts fans, like Joe Flacco is not

(52:31):
they know this. He's not getting in the Promised Land.
Is he really gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs. He's
really gonna beat Lamar or Josh Allen in the playoffs? No,
he lost to cg as a rookie last year in Houston.
So I don't get it, Like to me, you need
you just needed Anthony Richard and get the reps, like
you know, in a sick world, Daniel Daniel Jones over

(52:53):
here gets seventy one starts in the NFL. This kid
only gets nine or ten. And it's just I hate
that kind of stuff like this kid has so much potential.
We all knew it was gonna be rough, right, We
knew coming out of college this kid was just raw
talent and he had a great deep ball, but he
couldn't complete a ten yard pass. It's continued, and I
get why they're pissed off about, especially ownership, but it's
like that's how you have him take the reps, Like

(53:15):
he needs these reps to kind of figure that stuff
out and then work on that stuff in the off season.
So bizarre move, but for our job's sake. Like I
wanted to be on the Vikings because I thought Flores
would have a huge mismatch against Anthony Richardson. That's out
the window now Flaco Flacca donet seen at all. So yeah,
the value to me shifts to this Colts team, and
the number to me hasn't moved enough. It's gone down

(53:38):
from six to five. Now, yeah, I got this number four,
So right now I have a point of value on
the Colts. So I would take this on the Colts,
but I don't know what to do with it. Like
I can't imagine what the vibes are like in the
locker room after this type of move, where even the
quarterbacks said, you know, he didn't really have much to
say about it from this coach, and you know, Pittman

(53:59):
the wire you were saying he found out via social media. Like,
it just seems very dysfunctional with this Colts team. So
I'm happy to avoid this one, especially for our contest.
But man, just a strange move for this Colts team.
I don't get what the end goal is. It's to
get a wild card and that's that. Like, No, you
want to be setting yourself up for five ten years
down the road, not this deposite situation.

Speaker 1 (54:20):
So yeah, just sad.

Speaker 2 (54:22):
I feel bad for the Colts.

Speaker 1 (54:23):
I do too, And I love Shane Steike and you know,
I think he's great. Yeah, I think he would have
done wonder to continue to develop Anthony Richardson. Maybe that happens.
I don't understand the move. I agree with you, like
I actually didn't rush to bet the Colts when the
move was announced, even though the number ticked down from
six to five and a half immediately. I do think

(54:46):
that's where the value is. But I still think there's
something intangible that can't be addressed here that makes me
nervous about betting the Colts, especially against a Vikings team
that knows it needs it. Can't lose three in a row.
It needs a big game, So I agree with you,

(55:08):
but the Colts live.

Speaker 2 (55:09):
Then we talked about the script. Vikings has been incredible
this season. If they're up ten to nothing, go bet
the Colts live.

Speaker 1 (55:15):
Right the car because you get the Vikings in the
second half. They're a different team, different team, you get
Sam Darnold, unscripted, different conversation.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
YEP.

Speaker 1 (55:22):
Boosted underdog money line parlay time. Each week we give
out a two team money line underdog parlay. Bet three
sixty five boost the odds and highlights it on their
site all weekend under both team game pages. And remember
both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early
payout promo, where your money line pick it's marked as

(55:43):
a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even
if they lose. If you want to bet this bettered
at bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is
the New England Patriots and no surprise, Green Bay Packers.
Find the boost under either Patriots or Packers game pages.

(56:03):
I'm dead three six five signing our money line underdog
round Robin. There will come up, Hey, day. Hallelu yo
wata pay day.

Speaker 2 (56:15):
There will come.

Speaker 1 (56:16):
Up pay day some day.

Speaker 3 (56:18):
Some day there will come up heayday.

Speaker 1 (56:21):
Halla lou yo waa. Pay day will come up pay
day some day. I think we'll have the Pats in there, correct,
I think we'll have the Packers in there.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
Yep. And I'm tempted by it. I know you say
you can't see the Vikings losing three in a row,
but crazy things have happened, right, And you're getting plus
twenty eighty five right now in the Colts. I feel
like that's pretty good value.

Speaker 1 (56:42):
I don't mind that. I don't mind the Colts, the Packers,
the Pats. I think we had in there, the Browns.

Speaker 2 (56:53):
Browns are plus one hundreds, so yeah, I think we
can get them in there.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
I don't mind that Browns, and then we need one more.

Speaker 2 (57:00):
I mean, I hate them. I know I just should
on them, and I'm in Atlanta, but only have to
do the Cowboys like that's a coin flip game. Those
are the type of underdogs we take.

Speaker 1 (57:07):
Yeah, to me, it was actually Cowboys or Seattle. That's fair,
But I I don't want to jinks are No, don't
do it. I don't want to bring a grenade into
our own foxhole and do it to me, you know,
so Underdog, money Line, Round, Robin Parlay, Colts, Packers, Pat's, Browns, Cowboys.

(57:29):
Give me your biggest bets right now.

Speaker 2 (57:31):
Definitely Green Bay, Rams, you know, Bills, those three off
the top, and then secondary I'll probably go Saints, Patriots,
and then I know it's sickening, but I'm gona end
up on the Giants pretty heavy. So for my three
biggest ones, definitely Packers, Rams, and the Bills. I know
a little chalky this week, people, but that's just how

(57:52):
it is.

Speaker 1 (57:53):
I really can't believe you're going to be that aggressive
on the Giant.

Speaker 2 (57:55):
I know, I'm sick. Oh, it's just at will point,
this number moved too much. That's the issue. This number
here's I think it should be three. It's all up
to four and out, Chad. This is this is the
life of a sad man.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
Give me your scoot Roulette.

Speaker 2 (58:09):
When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
Let's play scoot Rolette. Scout Roulette six and two in
the season, people, we stay hot. I want to steal
Chad's pick a Green Bay so bad because I know
that's probably what he wants to do. But I'm gonna
give my guy a lay up. I'll let him take

(58:29):
Green Bay. I'll take the Buffalo bills minus six.

Speaker 1 (58:32):
Oh my god, you are a gift because I actually
wanted to choose. I was gonna do Green Bay or Buffalo,
and I know I knew you were going to do
one or the other. Yeah, so I was ready for both.
I would have taken both.

Speaker 2 (58:44):
But you know what, green Bay is a great one.

Speaker 1 (58:47):
You're You're a gift you give every day to me.
All right, sign to bring in our director of research,
e any It's good.

Speaker 2 (58:53):
Smarter final word.

Speaker 1 (58:54):
Let's get a little bit smarter of it. Make us
feel good. Also give us those Harbaugh Lamar Jackson first
half stats. The last word with Evan Abrams.

Speaker 3 (59:04):
We're finished talking as the tony reality of this show.
Let me clean up two things and then let me
go into exactly what we're talking about here. You guys
are talking about Richardson. So I just quickly looked this up.
So Richardson has twenty three starts combined college and pros.
Strout already has twenty five in the pros. So if
you want to make a comparison there, Richardson just needs
more time. But also he threw twenty four touchdown passes

(59:25):
in his college career. That was the fewest by any
first round quarterbacks in two thousand and one. His completion
percentage of fifty four percent was the lowest by a
first round quarterback since Jake Locker in twenty eleven. Let's
all just not assume this wasn't a shock. We kind
of knew this walking in, so it is what it is.
Let's move on there. Baltimore first half to answer your question,
So that is first half is up to six for Baltimore.
Now two hundred and sixty two quarterbacks last twenty years.

(59:49):
Number one and first have ATS is Lamar number two Flaco,
So Harbaugh, that's doing great. That he's fifty nine percent
first half of ATS, best of many head coach. So
that's that's the stuff out of the way. Let me
talk about a few picks she does like here. So
let's start with Buffalo. So when I'm doing a little
bit of research, I wanted to try and pinpoint where
Josh Allen might have the opportunity to blow out his opponents.

(01:00:11):
Since we talk about that stat of his wins and
winning by a large margin. So who knows what we're
going to actually be getting out of the Dolphins offense
because we've talked about this two and not two of
the numbers are just kind of jumbled. What we do
know is more predictable is their defense. So they're allowing
one hundred and twenty three yards per game on the ground,
which is middle of the pack in the NFL. But
when Josh Allen faces, defense is allowing one hundred and

(01:00:33):
twenty plus. Where Allen is favored, he is twenty eight
and three straight up, winning by fourteen point eight points
per game. He is eighteen eleven and two against the spread,
covering by seven points per game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:43):
So seems like, you know what, I feel so good
about that because what is the stat that I pinpointed?
I pinpointed the Dolphins rush defense? And like, I feel
great now, I feel fucking great.

Speaker 3 (01:00:59):
Well check for ev and number one. All right, number
two packers, how can we not talk about this? I'm
just gonna give one clear system play that I think
you almost just need to follow here. So teams covering
eighty percent of their games, which is the Lions, who
are a road favorite fifty three eighty nine and three
thirty seven percent against the spread since twenty ten, and

(01:01:20):
that moves to thirty two percent ats and division games.
Just it's a clear play on Green Bay, one play
one way or the other. And then the thing that's
kind of going around everywhere. Lafleur's great as a dog,
but when he's getting three points or more, he is
eighteen and four against the spread, No way, twenty and
two when that throws into a six point teaser, So

(01:01:43):
it's the right number, go that direction. And then I'll
end with one more, which is Tampa. So the odd
thing with Tampa, kind of like with Miami, is the
numbers don't matter as much anymore without God winning Evans.
So if you like Tampa, there's really three options. A
their defense shows up and keeps it close. B Baker
balls out without Evans, and God when probably not the option,

(01:02:04):
or see Baker finds the back door. So what I
looked up with Mahomes, he is twenty eight thirty one
and three against the spread as a six point favor
when his opponent is averaging two hundred and fifty plus
passing yards. When he's a six point favorite, he's just
three eight and one against the spread. Now, in those
three covers, he's won by thirty, nine, eighteen, and thirty five.

(01:02:26):
So could he blow out Tampa and cover the game? Sure,
maybe an option you might want to look at. You
like Tampa to cover cool, But if you take kse
to win by twenty or thirty to win by thirty
is eleven to one. So maybe there's a few ways
to play a little in both sides. But the numbers
say take Tampa, especially if Baker can find his group
of as receivers.

Speaker 1 (01:02:48):
All spread on the Kansas City Chiefs. That is nice, Evan,
That is tasty well done. See Simon, Don't we feel
better right now? As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is
presented by Bet three six five and now new. The
Bet three six five customers get two hundred dollars and
bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using

(01:03:11):
promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for
five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary at Bet
three sixty five, must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

(01:03:34):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I will return
with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action
Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern To
recap NFL week nine. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,

(01:03:57):
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift Until next time.
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler