The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 10

Road favorites have dominated this season, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss if this trend will continue across the NFL Week 10 slate. Together they discuss the Cowboys bouncing back, a good home spot in the Hoosier State, a weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.

It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by a bet
three six Vibe. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as always by
my co host Mike Companion, Mike Badra, my BFF Professional
Better Simon Hunter, Elosaimon.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Hello, Chad. How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Dude? I feel like I'm excited for the show because
by the end of yesterday, you know, the rhythm is
like Monday, we're digging in deep. Tuesday, we're talking about everything.
But by the end of Wednesday, I've done a lot
more research, as have you. By about five o'clock yesterday afternoon,

(00:55):
I just felt like the whole puzzle came together and
I had such clarity on every game, and you can
see what I put into the app already, Like I
put in a bunch of picks yesterday based on how
lines were moving and where I thought they were going
to go, and what I was seeing in betting percentages
and some of the matchup research I had done. I
slacked you and Mitch this morning and I'm like, I'm

(01:18):
not mushing it. I don't care. I feel strong and
I feel powerful. That's how I feel.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
I love the confidence.

Speaker 1 (01:26):
Today is our NFL Week ten Best Bets Episodes. Simon
and I will narrow down our five picks in the
Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest
presented by Bet three sixty five. Sign up now still
wins some weekly prizes Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We
will get into our foxhul We'll give out our Tommy
John big Ball's bet of the week. We'll discuss Simon's

(01:48):
biggest bets are boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog
Round Robin, and so much more. Bets are rolling in,
lines are moving, Decisions need to be made. As our
volume podcasts, Boss Colin Coward like to say.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
There's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five
customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code.
Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars
to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

(02:24):
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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three sixty five must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In

(02:45):
Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. All right, it is Thursday,
and like we to do like we'd like to do
on Thursday. We'll hear how the wise guys are responding
to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines, and the wise
guys like to tell us what we're doing right, what

(03:06):
we're doing wrong. Simon, it's time four sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range.

Speaker 4 (03:19):
Somebody's saying, maybe what you do man, Let's go the
biggest disagreement off the top chat.

Speaker 2 (03:26):
I like the rams. The professionals love Miami.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
I'm so glad you said that. And we're like, we're
gonna go deeper into that one it's when I was
doing my notes yesterday, it was the one like I
couldn't wait, it's clear fox Like we can say right
now if we're doing that, it's a foxle because I
knew the wise guys. Love this game? Go ahead?

Speaker 4 (03:45):
Yeah, I love it because it's giving me a better number.
One of Rams seam I love, so I'm happy for it. Uh,
they got the value. I guess at two and a half.
That was a good number to them. That was a
key number for them. I get the movement and the
bed for them, but I just view it as these
are two totally different teams going to totally different directions.
The Rams last week couldn't have played any worse, but

(04:05):
Stafford showed up in a big spot with a big throw,
and that's another reason I love them.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
This game.

Speaker 4 (04:10):
It's just it's really about Stafford and yeah a game
like you said, we're gonna dive into it, so I
don't want to spoil too much. But man, was I
like calling everyone figured out what the hell is going
on here? Why is this number moving so much? So
that was definitely a shocker. After our show Tuesday, I
don't know what I was doing, but I remember I
checked up the app, the Action app again, all of

(04:32):
a sudden, I saw that it was down to two
and then I saw was moving to.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
One and a half. I was like, WHOA, is someone
hurt that I missed something?

Speaker 4 (04:38):
So that was definitely a game that was pretty shock
and all the movement on that money on for that
Rams and Miami game.

Speaker 2 (04:45):
The next one is the Jets. We talked about.

Speaker 4 (04:48):
I didn't even know what's going on here the professionals
of the Jets. So that's a game we might have
to take. I've been I've kind of been talked into
the Jets here in this spot at this number. So
that's again I'm looking forward to talking to Cowboys. We
loved and a half. Still a couple sevens out there.
The professionals love that number, especially because a J. Brown
might not play. We know how bad that offense is

(05:08):
without him. Hurts is banged up, right. He didn't practice
this week. Devonte Smith didn't practice either, So there is
reason to take this big number with this Cowboys team,
even though it is no doubt about it. Cooper rush
behind this bad offensive line. So that's that's gonna be
a fun game to break down again.

Speaker 2 (05:26):
When you loved the Colts. Professionals love it. We saw
that touch three, three and a half of a couple
of books. Now it's back up to four. Still love it.
If you can get the four right. We talk all
the time about key numbers.

Speaker 4 (05:37):
That seems like that's gonna be a game that's gonna
either land right on three or right on four. Right,
that feels like a really tough game, especially for a
desperate's Colts team. But yeah, that was not that shock
and the last one a game I really liked.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
You really like the Saints.

Speaker 4 (05:52):
No shock here, right, the pros versus shows and this
is this matchup. It's kind of the same thing with
this Houston and Detroit game, even though we're on Detroit.
That's just exact same thing as this one.

Speaker 2 (06:03):
It's all professionals on the dog Home Dog, and it's
all the public coming on this really team shocked to
no One. So I was hoping this would go up.
We've seen a couple force pop with this Saints number.
That would be great for us.

Speaker 4 (06:17):
I would love to get more value here, just because
we both agree this Saints team is banged up.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
They are not that good.

Speaker 4 (06:22):
We're really just playing the spot in the number here,
So any more value we can get on this number,
I feel more confident about it. But at the end
of the day, it's it's a nice spot to be
to be fading this Falcons team on a home divisional dog.

Speaker 1 (06:33):
So here's what I love. The Jets to me were
the Jets were the swing state of this of this
particular slate to me, whereas like, bye, you know, we
were wishy washy on it.

Speaker 4 (06:48):
I know, read on it. Honestly, I made Cardinals a favorite.
I thought they were the right side. But yeah, I
was definitely wrong on that.

Speaker 1 (06:54):
We We're going to go deeper, and by by the
end of yesterday, I'm like, I feel like I like
the Jets here. So I'm glad we're going to have
a conversation about it. The first game up. Let's get
into the slate. This was your signmon, says game the
Pittsburgh Steelers at two and a half plus two and
a half against Washington. It moved from three to two
and a half. As you predicted.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
We all talked too much. Sharp dues can just see
it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.
They just watching. You know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (07:25):
I'm a little surprised it wasn't part of the sharp
calls Rundown. I'm a little worried about it because I
love the Steelers. Here it's a public dog. But what
I do like with this game is forty eight hours
ago it was the money was sort of split. Now

(07:47):
there's a preponderance of money on the Steelers, and there's
more money on the Steelers than there is tickets. So
like when we look in the action app, we see
the betting ticket percentage difference and we see the money
percentage difference, sixty one percent of the bets are on
the Steelers, So that's the public is the bets. Sixty

(08:08):
seven percent of the money is on the Steelers. So
what that tells me is that while all of that
sixty seven percent captures the public betting market, there's also
a little bit of a lyft because the wise guys
came in, which is why the line moved from three
to two and a half.

Speaker 2 (08:24):
Simon, there are twenty seven teams in Pro football and
then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaker 4 (08:34):
Yeah, I didn't throw it in there just because it's
not a game that like it's consent, Like all the
pros are betting right. I've talked to multiple groups and
it just seems like it's it's us and a couple
other guys that like this spot where a couple of
people are like, I'm either on Washington or I'm not
bet this at all, because Washington has been good to
the betters, right, Like most pros you talk to, you know,
they love this Washington team, just like we talked about
we love Washington too.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
But at some point we have to sell at this value.

Speaker 4 (08:57):
And you know, right now, Jane Daniels, who's five and
oh is a favorite against the spread, and straight.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
Up like, come on now, that's it's when does it
go the other way?

Speaker 4 (09:08):
This is insane. I don't think we've seen anything like this.
I mean, everyone know better than me. I can't remember
the last time seeing a rookie do this. Maybe Roethlisberger
or someone rain him like that. But to be five
and oh from the start of the season like he
started game one of the year. It's not like Perdy
coming in late in the season on to a great team.
This is a guy uplifting this team this season to

(09:28):
be five and oh against the spread. You know, eventually
the value is gonna be too much, so I agree
with you. I was shocked this wasn't a more professional,
better heavy thing, But like you just said, the money
says otherwise. Seems like there is a lot of professional
money coming in.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
So I still like it.

Speaker 4 (09:43):
But you, like you just said, you probably gonna have
to take this at two and a half in the contest, brother,
I mean, that's where it's going to be at.

Speaker 2 (09:50):
And it's like, I really like it still, but a
few have other games you like more.

Speaker 1 (09:53):
I totally get it, But right now it's the top
five for me.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
I get there.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
It's really going to be the Jets on the outside,
and we'll see if we there for me. But what's
interesting about the Commanders is, and I understand why there's
a sentiment to bet on Jayden Daniels we've passed through,
similar to CJ. Stroud last year, that all right, his

(10:19):
performance is fluky into his performance is real, and he's
made what was supposed to be a terrible offensive line
look better. He's made mediocre talent outside of Terry McLaurin
look better. What's really interesting to me is the Marshawn
Latimer trade. Not that this is something that moves the

(10:41):
line or gives them any more of an advantage against
the Steelers team that you know they're outside talent as
George Pickens and now Mike Williams. It's because the Commanders
are recognizing the new reality of the NFL, which is,
you've got a high performing rookie on a rookie contract.
This could be their window. Like the Lions are clearly

(11:03):
best in the NFC, but after that, the Eagles, they're
competing with the Commanders. The Niners they've been struggling, so
the Commanders see like in the standings, they got a
shot and they got a quarterback whose window is wide open.
You go and get the best available talent. Like to me,
that speaks to their confidence, which also is you know

(11:24):
you said the other day you love this commander's team.
It's hard not to love him for that.

Speaker 4 (11:28):
Yeah, but at the end of the day, like we
both love Pittsburgh and it's all about Tomlin and him
being twenty six and six straight up against rookie quarterbacks,
like he just shines in this exact spot and it's
a rare opportunity. It's Tomlin as a dog against a
rookie quarterback, so it's I can't pass on it.

Speaker 1 (11:44):
Tomlin is a road dog sixty one percent against the spread,
most profitable coach in the NFL the past twenty years.
I also think, and I said this on Tuesday, this
is the best defense the Commanders have faced. The best
the Steelers stats or mediocre, but TJ. Watt, Alex high
Smith on the edges playing together there, that's easily the

(12:08):
best combination. Jayden Danley's face.

Speaker 4 (12:10):
Yeah, they're basically not that this game will decide them
win the division, but they literally have this game and
then they play the Egos in a short week like
they could in the next two games basically lock up
the division in a playoff spot.

Speaker 2 (12:21):
If they can perform.

Speaker 4 (12:22):
In these spots, and it's the toughest spot you can
possibly imagine. You're going against Tomlin, then you're going against
the Eagles on the road. It's it's pretty I mean,
we've had high praise for Jane Daniels. I know people
talked about MVP. This is literally where he can make
himself actual into the MVP conversation. He wins back to
back these type of games, and what we perceive is
I think he's gonna lose both of them, just incredibly

(12:43):
tough spots. It's just this feels like a big, big
deal of the tone setter for Washington for the rest
of the season.

Speaker 2 (12:49):
These next two games.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
Chad Milman will be taking his son Owen to his
first NFL game Eagles Commanders next Thursday night.

Speaker 2 (13:01):
That's sick. That's good.

Speaker 3 (13:03):
Cool is that?

Speaker 2 (13:04):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (13:04):
How cool is that?

Speaker 1 (13:05):
We have a he just turned eighteen. We're going to
Nix Bowls at MSG Wednesday night. Take the train down
in Philly late Thursday, go to dinner with my kid
who's in Philly at Drexel. Then we go to the game,
and then we get up the next morning going to
visit University of Maryland and that night going to the
Maryland Marquette basketball game. Three games, three nights, blowing it out,

(13:32):
super friend style.

Speaker 4 (13:33):
Look at you that and your kid miss school? I
think the like time I ever miss school is and
I was gonna suspended. So prop Steve for being a
cool dad.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
Dude. It's it's he's a senior in high school. He's
applied to all the colleges, like three days, not gonna matter.
Buffalo at in three days to go see three premier
sporting events. You gotta do it.

Speaker 2 (13:53):
Now I'm jealous.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
Buffalo at Indianapolis. We just talked about it. This was
your second shot, for Simon says, and on Tuesday we
were still digging into it. I don't think we had
the same confidence you pegged it as Simon says. Really,
I think we looked at it as a by low
Sell high. We were selling high on the road fa
that coming off the last second division win, that puts

(14:16):
them in the driver's seat for their division. Basically in November.
You know, Josh Allen is odds on for MVP. Their
Super Bowl odds are improving. We're buying low on a
team that looked really bad against the Vikings in prime time.
But this line actually got up to four and a
half and then it's like it got to four and
a half and it was streaking down the second it hit. Yeah,

(14:40):
four and a half, Like bet three six five is
at four, but a lot of places are at three
and a half. I now not only like it as
a by low Sell high. I like the matchup too.
I don't know if that's playing into your thinking here.

Speaker 4 (14:54):
Love the matchup and all the other bs off field, right,
all those stuff we always talk about the look ahead
spot that the Chiefs coming up. I mean, this is
like we just talked about the Washington decide in this season.
This is like this little run here will decide if
the Bills can get that one seed. Right, they got
the Colts here, then the Chiefs, then a bye, then
they have.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
Forty nine ers rams Detroit. I mean, talk about.

Speaker 4 (15:14):
An insane, brutal run here, a little stretch for this
Bills team. And me and you talk about like this
Bill's team. We think they're really good. We've seen them
struggle this season against teams that are kind of at
the same level as them.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Man. That's what this to me will really decide here
is are the Colts an actual playoff team or do
what we see to start the year was kind of
fluking a lot of luck with them because you said
it right, they're four and zero. I guess it's spread
at home this year.

Speaker 4 (15:36):
And me and you have been a lot on the
I've been on those games and that we always felt
like we got away with one, especially that week one
against Houston with Anthony Richardson.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
So we we love this spot.

Speaker 4 (15:46):
It's also this the the whole thing of Flacco is
not as bad as he was in that previous game,
like that was the worst start we've seen by Flaco
in the last two years, including you know what he's
obviously doing with that Browns team last year, and looking
at the matchup with this Bills team. You can't attack
the middlefield. You can run it down their throat if
you can establish it, and that's what the Colts.

Speaker 2 (16:07):
Want to do there.

Speaker 4 (16:08):
That's that's literally what their identity is built around. This
team is the basically right down your throat. Once you
have the safety step up, they just take deep shots.
And we've seen that even Anthony Richardson now Joe Flacko
is happy to run that same exact type of offense
where it's like, okay, bring the safeties down to stop
the run. That's when we'll attack these teams deep and offensively.
Obviously we're scared of this Bills team. You know they're

(16:29):
going to be able to move the ball. It's ken
the Colts keep up with them offensively. I think that
can in this matchup. So another game, me and you
were just really playing the number. I think this number
should be three. It's four to three and a half.
We're happy to still take the four if you can
find it so.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
Uh you mentioned the offense for the Bills. The strength
of the Bills is their rushing game, and Ian Coleman
is going to be out. Amari Cooper's you know, has
not been playing, so their ability to throw the ball
is a little bit diminished. But the one thing that
I do think the Colts have been getting better at

(17:06):
is stopping the run. Right since Buckner came back. We've
seen Stuart Grover Stewart, like how dominant he was against
the Chiefs the other night. I do think I'm not
against the Chiefs, but this past weekend he played really
well against the Vikings. I do think that's an opportunity
for them. And on the flip side, you just mentioned

(17:26):
it like the Colts running game offensively, that's their strength.
Like they are fourth and one yards per play, fourth
in rushes of ten plus yards, eighth in rush yards
over expected, the number one ranked offensive line for run

(17:47):
blocking according to Pro Football Focus. The Bill's rush d
is just not very good. So a lot of matchup
stuff in addition to the spot, in addition to the
public perception, like all the things that we like to
bet from public perception to number to match up, our
lining up here, I can see this definitely making the contest.

(18:09):
By the way, By the way, road favorites with a
winning percentage of seventy five or more seventy five percent
or more the past decade forty three percent against the spread.
That said, let's not forget this season road favorites are
what are they sixteen games over five hundred against the

(18:34):
spread this season, best ever the past five weeks forty
six twenty nine and one against the spread road favorites.
So our favorites overall, so like the trends are valuable
for historical context, has not been a play this year,

(18:57):
which has been part of our struggles.

Speaker 2 (18:59):
Now.

Speaker 4 (18:59):
It's been brutal, but it's like I always say that
I don't want to overadjust because it's like once we do,
that's when it comes back around the other side. And
that's that's something I tried doing last week and it
clearly didn't work. So I'm just trying to stick to
it where it's like, can't overadjust, They'll come back around.
It's just been a little bit of a fluky year
with everything that's going on.

Speaker 1 (19:16):
I think it's worth explaining the idea of adjustment. I
don't want to make Matt Mitchell's head pop off, because
I know he wants us to keep moving. But I've
seen like some of these comments, and I do go
and like rewatch the shows and I will see the
comments in the YouTube channel on that shed No, and
like we get stuff on Twitter, and so people are

(19:37):
asking like why aren't you adjusting and things like that,
So bookmakers don't overadjust like you can't and your power rating,
just explain for like sixty seconds why it's a bad
idea to overadjust based on four weeks six week sample
sizes of data.

Speaker 4 (19:55):
I do say, you do want to adjust, but what
you're saying about overadjusting is just your basically just totally
throwing out everything you believe in you work on to
go with what's happening right now. And we always talk about,
like the thing that makes the professionals is better is
different than the public better is they don't overreact to
small samples. Right, You don't overreact to just you know,

(20:17):
three four bad weeks, which is very rare if it happens.
I can't totally throw out what's gotten me to where
I'm at in life.

Speaker 2 (20:24):
I'm betting and I can't just throw away all the
data numbers.

Speaker 4 (20:26):
I always use to try to adjust it now, Like
I mean you talked years ago, the spread offense totally
changed the NFL. I was ahead of it, right, I
was using a college model to do professional betting, and
it was a big adjustment. Where like you know, guys
who have only strictly bet NFL, they need to adjust
to the spread coming into the NFL. Like that was
a huge change from twenty ten to say twenty seventeen,

(20:50):
twenty eighteen. Then we saw the read option came in,
which is again you had to adjust your model to
these running quarterbacks are running these read options.

Speaker 2 (20:56):
So that stuff I do.

Speaker 4 (20:58):
Make adjustment to to the the home field mean you
talked about, I made adjustment to that. I moved it
down for most guys had it at three. Some teams
I only have them at one and a half for
home field advantage, like good teams, I make them two points.
That's a big adjustment. Us just blindly betting these road
favorites because they've been covering too.

Speaker 2 (21:18):
That's too much of an over adjustment.

Speaker 4 (21:19):
So that to me is the biggest thing of we
agree with it. Maybe it's I don't put as much
on some of these lines. But it's like like the
Rams last week that honestly before that wouldn't have been
one of my bigger bets. Right the Rams are on
the road in a divisional game against a desperate Seahawks team,
But I adjusted this year being like, Okay, this shouldn't
just be minus one half, this should be three because

(21:41):
these road teams have been performing better divisionally. But on
the flip side, you have games like the Saints, which
was a total miss right against Carolina, where it's like,
that's where I did over adjust that number. I should
have made it six and a half. I made it
seven and a half. So I was like, Okay, I
like this number for the Saints team that was way off.
So that's been the biggest issue with me is I'm trying,
like you talked about earlier the year, the divisional home

(22:02):
dogs have not been hitting like they have before me
in the past, and it's been hard not to overadjust
to that because it's what's happening this season. I'm not
trying to just that basically what happened off the previous years.
I am trying to bring into the.

Speaker 2 (22:16):
New data of like, Okay, my old way of thinking
is not what it used to be. I need to
adjust to what the market is doing right now.

Speaker 1 (22:24):
I'm glad you mentioned home divisional or divisional dogs. I'm
glad you mentioned road favorites. We do have a road
favorite that we're going to talk about. I love it.
We talked about it on Tuesday. I love it even more.
We'll get to that. The next bed up is a
divisional game Denver Kansas City. Kansas City is an eight
point favorite. We end in hod a bit on Tuesday

(22:46):
because of how bad the Broncos looked against the Ravens.
And excuse me, I feel like we were a little
bit bummed because the line was at nine and a
half on Sunday when we first talked about it. We
were hoping it would get to and I think because
of that, we missed a little bit of the take
a bite at the nine and a half. This is

(23:08):
a Pros Joe's game. The Pros are on the Broncos,
the Joe's are on the Chiefs. It went from eight
and a half down to eight yesterday. It was actually
at seven and a half. I bet at eight and
a half. It's in the Action Network AAP. It's now
at eight. I like the Broncos here. I'm not afraid
of it in any way.

Speaker 2 (23:30):
I'm not either. I've come around on it because I
was with you.

Speaker 4 (23:32):
I honestly wanted to be on the Chiefs here, but
because I do think the Hopkins addition, it's it's a
big deal to this team, like he is. Clearly, once
he builds a rhythm with Mahomes, that's gonna be a
game shot.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
Because right now him and Kelsey are peaking like that.

Speaker 4 (23:49):
Since Rice has got injured every week, Kelsey has just
gotten better and more comfortable than Mahomes. You can really
tell that, like whatever happened earlier the year, he clearly
came not I don't want to say out of shape
into the season, but it wasn't the else we all knew,
and we all thought it was the age thing. Now
we've seen him in good shape, it's it was not
an age thing. I mean, Kelsey is back to being
a top three tight end. So that that s hesitation

(24:11):
of me is that I don't know if the books
have adjusted enough to this. I mean, you talked about
that bon Nicks was just I don't want to say
unlucky against the Ravens, but it kind of felt like
they were right, like all the little things that could
have gone wrong went wrong for them, and the public
racted over too too much to it.

Speaker 2 (24:26):
So at eight and a half trot, I would would
take it. But it's down to seven and a half
in a lot of books now.

Speaker 1 (24:31):
So yeah, I mean, I think it'll be interesting in
the contest.

Speaker 4 (24:34):
Right, And at what point do I want to take
the Chiefs, Like if this touch is seven, I'd much
rather have more money on the Chiefs of the seven.

Speaker 2 (24:41):
I would the BRONC was eight and a half just.

Speaker 4 (24:42):
Because we did see last week they looked like a
young team that had beaten up on bad teams and
once they once they played a veteran good team, they
did get dominated. I mean, Lamar he could have done
whatever he wanted against that defense, Like once he figured
them out, it was it was totally over for them.
So that's why I'm happy this is not giving one
of our five and we don't have to because I'm

(25:03):
I did bet the BRONC was eight and a half,
But if it does get to seven, that's where all
my money will be on this Chiefs team.

Speaker 1 (25:10):
When I was looking at our five, this was this
is either last one in or first one out to me,
and the Jets are sort of the the replacement.

Speaker 2 (25:25):
Yeah, I'd rather the Jets on them.

Speaker 1 (25:27):
I will say Division favorites plus seven seven or more
covering it just a forty nine percent clip the past
twenty years. We know Mahomes record as a favorite of
more than three.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
Short rest too this week short.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
Rest more than three tweaked ankle. I was watching some
video yesterday, Like at the end of that game, he
was really limping. He you know, he was barely moving
on that ankle. I know he says it'll be fine,
he'll be ready. But I also like teams coming off
a blowout plus points fifty seven percent against spread the

(26:02):
following week, a lot of a lot of trends and
a lot of on field stuff to favor the Broncos.

Speaker 4 (26:07):
Yeah, the Broncos, don't. Evan just had a good note
in our app. It's like, and they're off ot in
a short week.

Speaker 1 (26:13):
It's yeah, that's what I mean.

Speaker 2 (26:15):
Man, I had to think of Broncos, don't I.

Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yes, Like I would not be betting the Chiefs here
at all. Look, the Chiefs. The Chiefs are dominant. They've
won what fourteen fifteen in a row. But they win
their games by five or six points per game. You know,
they're methodical. They are not throwing the ball downfield twenty
plus yards explosive plays. That's just not their game. And

(26:39):
I agree with you with DeAndre Hopkins. They're a different
team with him playing, but he's not an explosive downfield receiver.
What he is is one more outlet who knows how
to play in space and find the pocket to give
Patrick Mahomes a target.

Speaker 4 (26:58):
So he's got like top five hands in the league.
Though like that that makes a difference maker for Mahomes.
He's got a guy throw it to him. He'll catch anything, right,
that's great.

Speaker 1 (27:07):
But to me, the way they're going to utilize that
ten yards down the field, ten yards down the field,
it's third and eight, there're DeAndre Hopkins for fourteen yards. Right,
It's not like they're gonna have short drives that end
in seven points and they're going to score eight times
in a row.

Speaker 2 (27:24):
So we'll see.

Speaker 4 (27:25):
Because again, the Hopkins thing was he had this play
in that game where he was coming back, he saw
Mahomes scrambling and he knew.

Speaker 2 (27:33):
To turn it upfield. And that was his second game
on that team, Chad.

Speaker 4 (27:36):
That's that's like crazy, crazy good, Like I can't believe
how good Hopkins is still that he saw Mahomes going
out and he left his round and was like, I'm
just gonna go deep because Mahomes will give me a chance,
and he did. He threw it, perfect ball up, perfect catch.
So yeah, that's just that's my view of it. Like,
you're right, I'm thinking long term here. I got to
just think this week and obviously the Broncos is the
play this week.

Speaker 1 (27:57):
Simon, just time. Are you ready? It is time for
big balls. Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John.
If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes
the greatest guy. We need all the support we can

(28:20):
get to hold our very big balls on this bet.
New Orleans Saints plus three and a half at home
against the Atlanta Falcons. Look the line move from three
to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday.

(28:41):
I had already bettered at three and a half. It's
not a huge surprise that it got up to four
and then went back down to three and a half
At three sixty five there are fours out there if
people want to look for them. This is the biggest
luck side of the week in our luck rankings, which
you know love Derek Carr. He's lost four games this year,

(29:05):
you know, he missed three games during their seven game
losing streak. Three of those games they lost to the
Chiefs by thirteen. Other than that, they've lost by three points,
two points, one point. Obviously, one of those games was
against the Falcons. Well, this is a team that was
so embarrassed against the Panthers. Their most popular player, Cam

(29:26):
Jordan apologized, apologized, But we're taking the Saints like it's
one of those games where it it actually makes no
sense to me not to take the Saints.

Speaker 4 (29:42):
But it's a game you hate yourself because you have
to take it. That's how I feel about it.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
Whereas I don't even you know what I actually don't.
I don't know what's going on this week. I'm loaded
up on different kinds of steroids for this cough that
I've had for three weeks, and so maybe I'm just
feeling more energetic than usual, or maybe you know, seeing
the light. Not once have I been afraid to bet

(30:06):
the Saints team.

Speaker 4 (30:07):
Yeah, my only fear of it is just if this
turns into a track meet, we're done though, because now
we have Derek Carr throwing to backup receivers, Like I
really hope a lot of A's back we need him.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
For He's He's definitely not planning, no never, So.

Speaker 4 (30:23):
Yeah, this is just we're we're trusting the number, trusting
the spot. But yeah, like matchup wise, when I was
diving into a chat, it's not ideal. Honestly, the biggest
takeaway to me is that Elena doesn't get pressure. Derek
Carr is great when he's not getting pressured. You can
run the ball against obviously Stilanta front.

Speaker 2 (30:40):
You know.

Speaker 4 (30:40):
The fear for me is just that, you know, they
just got rid of their best corner on this New
Orleans team, and now we're getting Drake London, who's been
great this year.

Speaker 2 (30:49):
So that's like the movement to me is interesting that
it even got up.

Speaker 4 (30:53):
To four because it just shows that there is some
professional money on the Atlanta side, where I thought this
was going to be a total pros game where it's
gonna be all professional money on the Saints. So like
you just said that people out there, you don't need
a rush to get This is the reason I didn't
make this. Simon says either, it's like you don't need
a rush got to three and a half. I still
think it could go back up to four to four
and a half by game time. But this is what

(31:16):
me and Chad love to do, like this exact team
Like this is like the Lily. The bias of low
on this Saints team. They've lost seven straight games, but
against a Falcons team that has a big leading in
the division, everyone thinks of the best team this division,
where I still think the Bucks even though they lost
them twice, like if they were healthy, this would have
been their division.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
Right. The Bucks clearly were the.

Speaker 4 (31:36):
Better team this year, but they just haven't had the
luck this Atlanta team has. So I'm happy to sell
on this Atlanta team, especially this number in this matchup
Saints at home, Historically, this is a good spot to
take them. And now the factor in the fact they
fired their coach, who seems like most of the guys
in the team absolutely hated That's just what I've read online,

(31:56):
So usually this is a nice spot for us.

Speaker 2 (31:59):
Evan had in his article.

Speaker 4 (32:01):
I think it's twenty two seventeen against the spread teams
after firing their head coach. So we'll take that number
at plus three and a half.

Speaker 1 (32:08):
You're not wrong about Derek Carr, like he looks like
a decent quarterback if you look just at the stats.
But as very famous her ferd resident and American treasurer
Mark Twain once said, there are three kinds of lies, lies,

(32:31):
damned lies, and statistics. Derek Carr gains a lot of yards,
does not win a lot of games. That makes his
whole career a facade. So we're betting on a guy
we hate to bet on, but it's exactly what we
have to do in our Big Balls bet of the Week.

(32:55):
Because our sponsor, Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear
I've ever worn. They've changed my life. When you're truly comfortable,
you can bet better. That's why we can bet on
the New Orleans Saints. If you love Simon and I,
you love this show, you love Tommy John, get twenty
five percent off your first order right now at Tommy
John dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent at

(33:19):
Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All Right, we talked
about road favorites, San Francisco six point road favorite at
Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more
work on this game yesterday, I just loved it more
and more love the Niners here. It was at five

(33:40):
and a half yesterday. I betted at five and a half.
It's in the app. I still like it at six.
I actually don't know if it'll get back to five
and a half. Like the public had been betting on
the box. It was one of these weird pros Joe's
games where the public was betting the box, probably because
of how they played against the Chiefs and thinking about
the Niner struggles. But the wise guys have been coming

(34:02):
in on San Francisco Simon. I got a lot of
reasons I like it, but I want to hear your
take before I dig into them.

Speaker 4 (34:10):
Yeah, and actually a few professionals I talked to they
take they've taken the Bucks. If you like the Bucks,
they've taken them first half. They think that's the spout
to take this team because you basically have a four
nights team coming off of buy into this matchup where
you know this might be McCaffrey's first start of the year.
All of it is just if that's where you want
to attack this foreigners team, try to attack the first
half because you just nailed it. Like, this is the
same scenario the Chiefs, Right, it's a team on a

(34:33):
short week. They played into overtime, then they had to
fly back home to play this match up against a
team off.

Speaker 2 (34:38):
Of bye week.

Speaker 4 (34:39):
So it's like five and a half chat, this is
our five. We get five and a half in contest.
We put it in and McCaffrey is cleared and he's
gonna play, no doubt a not.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
I'd take it. If McCaffrey is.

Speaker 4 (34:49):
Out again for this game, I wouldn't honestly put this
in our contest and this this wouldn't be one of
my bigger bets. Like that's how important I think he
is to this offense. Because you know, as good as
the other guys have done, we always talk McCaffrey is
such a difference maker. Even the other day I was
watching highlights from them from last season. It was like
every time they needed a big play, he was there.
Anytime they needed a first down carry for five or

(35:11):
six runs to give pretty a short field, he would
do it. So I can't wait to have them back.
It's obviously a game change of this foty nine ers team,
and he nailed it five and a half. People try
to find that number, grab it. If he does get clear,
this goes up to what six and a half seven
If McCaffrey's cleared before kickoff.

Speaker 1 (35:28):
I don't actually know. Like, to me, every indication is
that he's playing, and so I wonder if that's already
priced into the line a little bit. I mean, it
did get up to six and a half, it came
back down to six and then five and a half
a little bit yesterday, so there's some buy it back.
But to me, it might get back to six and

(35:49):
a half on Sunday when people who are you know
you and I live in a world where we're tracking
this from Sunday to Sunday, we forget that there's the
majority of the betting community is not really paying attention
to this until Sunday morning at eleven am Eastern, and
so it could get some heavy aggressive action when they

(36:09):
realize Christian McCaffrey is playing. Like if he is playing
and he's fresh against a run defense that is twenty
ninth in success rate, which, for those who don't know
it basically calculates how much yardage a team gains on
each down, so that they gain twenty percent of the
yardage they need for a first down on first down

(36:31):
forty percent on second down. Like it scales up. The
bucks D is terrible at success rate. The bucks D
is terrible at lineyards twenty seventh in line yards, which
means their D line basically gives up a lot of
rushing yards and without getting any contact on the running back.
So I like McCaffrey against this defense. Over the past

(36:52):
two decades, road fades off of a by covered a
sixty percent clip. By the way, that number, that number
is seventy when the spread is five and a half
or higher.

Speaker 2 (37:02):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (37:03):
So when you've got a good team coming off a
bye as a favorite, they overperform because they're a good
team coming off a bye. So good spot for us here.
I feel like this is going to be in the contest.
I do think we'll get five and a half. I
haven't looked at the numbers yet, but.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
Yeah, say now you've convinced me.

Speaker 4 (37:19):
Now, if we can get the five and a half
and then Sunday McCaffrey is playing, this is a guaranteed
to be one of our five.

Speaker 1 (37:24):
Yeah, I think, and I think like it hasn't been
at six and a half enough that it'll be at
six and a half in the contest, so I think
we'll get a good number there. Uh, this is to me,
this is a this is the inter and out game.
New York Jets plus one at Arizona at bet three
six five. I will say most places have the Jets

(37:46):
as a one point favorite. We had a long Jet
chat about the Jets on Tuesday. They were dogs at
like one and a half, so we missed that. But
over the course of twenty four hours yesterday, I just
decided the Jets with the side I get. Everything made
sense to me, even as like a one point favorite.

(38:07):
I know we hate betting against the line flip, but
we did it. You know we've done it. We did
with the Rams last week. I just think the Cardinals
are streaky. They've gotten the right teams in the right spots.
The Jets have had pen days. I think they're the

(38:31):
better team.

Speaker 2 (38:33):
Yeah, I do.

Speaker 4 (38:34):
I told you ive Arizona is slightly better, graded higher
and I do the Jets right now. I'm my model,
but as the human my view of it's kind of
the same thing. Like thrown out all the model and
everything out. Like you just talked about, I feel like
the Jets on paper and just visually are the better team.
They've just been unlucky this season where Arizona has been lucky.

Speaker 2 (38:53):
That's why obviously they have so many more wins.

Speaker 4 (38:55):
And this is another telling line where I was way
off on it and maybe I haven't adjusted enough to
devant the Adams coming over. Right, that's obviously a big
deal to this team. And we'll see how Rogers does now.
Back to back weeks. You know, he was banged up
coming to that game. He got a little more banged
up on Thursday. I saw you an interview the other day.

(39:18):
He said he's fine, he's feeling great. I mean, that's
just football talks. We really don't know. But yeah, looking
at this matchup on paper, there should be a great
matchup for the Jets.

Speaker 2 (39:27):
Offensive.

Speaker 4 (39:27):
The question is defensively a team that struggles against the run.
That seems like that's Arizona's identity this year, right, they
kind of just been running the ball down team's threats.
I mean Kyler Murray, he might be second or third
in the league right now, and rushing for quarterbacks He's
been great running the ball as well, so there are
obviously his ways for Arizon to attack it. But you
just nailed It's like, isn't this peak Arizona? Haven't they

(39:48):
just been on this insane around these last couple of
weeks where they've won a bunch of close games and
they just blew out that Bears team on the at home.
Now this is the letdown spot, right, Like, isn't this
where they kind of have that where the Jets they
can't afford it. They're probably the most one of the
most desperate teams in football right now. They know every
week is basically a playoff game, so we can ride
it with the pros.

Speaker 2 (40:08):
We can bet it.

Speaker 4 (40:09):
I honestly have a small bet on this so far.
Like you just said, it was really about being the
plus one. It was like, okay, I'll grab the plus
one now before it does flip. It hasn't even moved
since I bet it yesterday. Like it's still you can
still get the plus one out there if you want it.
But like Chad said, most books now have the Jets
as a favorite.

Speaker 1 (40:28):
All right, well it's on the list. We got six
games on the list right now. PHILLYO Dallas. Dallas is
a seven point dog right now. This was my exec decision.
When it was at seven and a half, I had four.
I was interested in heading into Tuesday Dallas, New Orleans,
Denver and the Jets, And at the time I chose

(40:48):
the Cowboys largely because of the number, and being at
seven and a half was like my own little version
of Simon says. The Jets were just confusing us Saints.
We're only at three of the Broncos. We still kind
of hoped it would go up. So I grabbed Dallas
at seven and a half. It's moved to seven. I'm

(41:08):
hopeful Micah Parsons plays. Gotten every indication that he will.
AJ Brown I think is going to play. You had
mentioned AJ Brown. He practiced yesterday, looked fine.

Speaker 3 (41:21):
So I.

Speaker 1 (41:25):
To me, this is a spot we're playing. The number
got the half point. I don't think this is a
contest play. I don't know that we'll get seven and
a half in the contest. It's a hook and their
spot is a bigger division job.

Speaker 2 (41:40):
Yeah, we talked. Hurts has struggled on the road in
his career. He struggled as a big favorite as an
Eagles fan, I don't think we've ever won in.

Speaker 4 (41:49):
Dallas with Hurts as a quarterback. I could be wrong,
is that right, Evan? I'm not sure, but I don't
think he's ever won in Dallas. And that's obviously Dallas
have some great teams, and they're not a great team
right now. But there's something to do that in these
divisional games. And you said though the base it's just
playing the number seven and a half is just too
much for this Eagles team that just keeps letting teams

(42:11):
get back in the game, doesn't matter if the team's
good or bad. They find a way to kind of
shoot themselves on the foot and let these teams come
back in. And looking at this matchup, obviously Eagles across
the board are a much better team.

Speaker 2 (42:25):
Yeah, it Hurts is over three in his career.

Speaker 4 (42:27):
In Dallas, but at seven and a half, I don't
mind taking the number. I bet this number six and
a half no play for me, would not put in
the contest.

Speaker 1 (42:36):
I agree one hundred percent it's going to be. I
don't have this making our final five right now. We'll
see what we get in the contest. If it's seven
and a half, it might make it a harder conversation,
it would.

Speaker 2 (42:46):
Like I'd much rather put the Rams or Detroit over this.

Speaker 1 (42:50):
Uh good, you know what. I'm glad because I don't
want to. I don't want to put it on the
line with the Cowboys. I like the seven and a
half number. I'm glad to have made it an exact
decision and made it it will be.

Speaker 2 (43:00):
Our divisional dog in the Saints. We don't need two
of them exactly.

Speaker 1 (43:04):
All Right, you just mentioned Detroit three and a half
point favorite over Houston. Yeah, I don't know. I like
this game. Worries me. I know we were talking a
lot about Detroit on Tuesday. From a betting point of view,
it's really got to be at three. I think we
need to show some discipline here. Nicocollins is eligible to

(43:25):
come back. Wow, he didn't practice yesterday, but they did
run him through all these physical tests. They had him
running twenty miles per hour on a treadmill. That's deep
research right there. That's what I'm bringing to the podcast, Okay,
spending my time trying to figure out our key player
is going to play, bringing it to our audience. Will

(43:45):
Anderson did not practice. We both know this was a
different team against the Jets. As soon as he went out,
they were winning, and then they lost. As I keep
looking at this game, my biggest fear for betting the
Lions in this game is their rush defense stopping Joe Mixon,

(44:05):
who's just he's playing pissed four straight games one hundred
yards in a touchdown ever since he came back from
an injury. If Nico is back and Joe Mixon is
doing what he does against a middling Lions rush defense,
that feels like a recipe for pain if we're betting

(44:29):
the Lions.

Speaker 4 (44:31):
Yeah, but this also feels like when you talk a
lot of time trying to catch a falling knife. It's like,
we know Detroit's gonna get burned eventually, Like they can't
keep up the space. But we had two straight weeks
of their offense putting up what two hundred and fifty
yards against Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (44:44):
They're special teams at for him.

Speaker 4 (44:46):
Last week, same thing, they put up like two fifty
seven or two hundred and fifty fifty six, I forget
what it was exactly, but they shirted offensively, their defense
showed up, and defensively, they've been one of the best
teams on third and fourth downs in the like they've
really shut teams down, even after they aiden Hutchison injury.
You know, their defense is being able to attack this

(45:07):
Houston team, like you just said, like they have a
bad offensive line. Yes, their biggest weakness is gonna be
against the run. But if there's no Nico Collins, why
would they not stack the box if they know that's
what they're going to need to do here with Houston.
So Detroit breaks all the rules like golf, We've never
seen anything like this. How he basically every week is
the public favorite, biggest public bet, and he just covers.

(45:28):
And it's not just because of him, it's the whole
team right now, they're just playing at such a high levels.
So your hesitation is warranted. I want to be under
I wanted to be on Houston and coming into this
it's like another week of trying to fade this Detroit team.
But I think last week was just a much better
spot and that is where I wanted to do it.

Speaker 2 (45:43):
And this one it's like I told you, I got
this line a little higher. I think there's value three
and a half.

Speaker 4 (45:48):
If you're scared off, you don't want to put it,
and I get it. But yeah, I actually still like
Detroit at this number in the spot, and it's really
like you just said, we'll no Will Anderson, no Nico Collins.
This will become one of my bigger bets.

Speaker 1 (46:00):
Sunday Football is a physical, violent game, physical travels. Right.
The reason why we've loved the Lions all year is
because we love their offensive line, like it's just something
that it's not. Offensive lines are not streaky. No, the
way quarterbacks are, the way receivers are, the way running

(46:21):
backs can be. Offensive lines are consistent. That's what you're
betting on. I think that's why we fall in love
with the Lions and why we back them in certain spots,
even when that was sort of chalky. I think there's
too much running against their defensive line as a run
stopping team to make me super super comfortable. Miami at

(46:45):
the Los Angeles Rams, It's time to explain yourself, mitter Hunter.

Speaker 2 (46:52):
What do you mean by that? Why do I like
the Rams?

Speaker 1 (46:54):
Like this is a This is a pros Joe's game,
and we are decidedly on the public team. The number
has moved aggressively in the direction of the Dolphins. Maybe
one of the biggest moves of the week. You know,
other than Denver in Seattle, Denver and Kansas City which
moved from nine and a half down to seven and

(47:16):
a half, there haven't been games unless there have been
injuries that have had massive moves like this.

Speaker 2 (47:22):
So what you're thinking, Yeah, and clearly there's professional but
a result. I just do not simply believe in this
Rams team.

Speaker 4 (47:30):
They bought heavy on them against that Vikings team, a
spot I loved the following week against the Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (47:36):
They were not on our side. They were all in
the Seahawks. I mean that number went.

Speaker 4 (47:39):
From two to two and a half all the way
back on a one to one and a half. I
kickoff like money came in very late on that Seahawks
team looked like it was a.

Speaker 2 (47:48):
Pretty good read.

Speaker 4 (47:48):
Right Stafford did not have a good game, and then
we got to pick six from Gino and then insane
overtime touchdown to get us that cover. So we know
fortunately were But I look at this Rams team, it's
just aren't they the better team. I don't really get
the line movement here where it's like I get it
too as desperate, the Rams not gonna be as desperate
as Miami team coming off the divisional game. But Evan

(48:10):
has a bunch of trends at point two, it's actually
nice to play this Rams team after that divisional game.
McVeigh eleven and seven against the spread after playing divisional
games after a win, and uh, you know this is
another matchup of this. This Miami's defense is terrible. Like,
who like Ramsy's gonna shut down Cooper Cupp or Pooka.

(48:31):
I don't think so, Like, I don't think he's the
same guy we think of in the past. And we
know their run defense has struggled as well. So maybe
the review of it is this is a shootout and
that's why they took the two and a half, and
it's like Miami's gonna be able to stay in this game.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
But I still think their offense is off.

Speaker 4 (48:48):
And yeah, two had that great last drive against the Bills,
but overall in that game, didn't really feel like that
was the Miami team of old, right. That feels like
they were lucky to be in that game against the Bills.
So I have no issues here, but there's clearly a
blind spudyer or I just maybe love this Rams team
too much and that the professionals are making a good
read here on taking the Rams, I mean taking Miami,
especially at plus two and a half.

Speaker 1 (49:10):
Simon, you and I.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
We're in the foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's
going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,
I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (49:19):
I'm with you on the Rams. I love the Rams.
I like the Rams not because of Cooper Cup and
Pookin Naku and Matthew Stafford. I love him because of
Kyrin Williams. And I love him because Sean McVay runs
so much motion and at the end of the day,
he's a coach who just wants to run the ball
up the middle. And in Kyrien Williams, he's got a
guy who's gaining four or five six years per carry

(49:41):
against They mind the Dolphins defense that isn't very good.
And to your point about the Dolphins offense against the Bills,
that was a Devin h And drive that won them,
that got them into that game and tied them in
that game against the Bill. So I like everything you're
saying here. I like it even more that we're getting

(50:02):
a much lower.

Speaker 2 (50:03):
Number getting grave value now in the Rams of this.

Speaker 1 (50:05):
Great value on the Rams like, I could see the
Rams making it in here into the contest for sure.
I could see them getting in there for me over Detroit,
possibly over the Broncos. If the line is seven and
a half. We'll see, we'll see. That's exciting. I felt
good about all of them today, though I really did.
Each week Simon, we give out a two team money

(50:26):
line underdog parlay Bet three sixty five boost the odds
and highlights it on their site all week and long
under both game pages. And remember, both games will be
eligible for bet three six five's early payout promo, where
your money line pick gets marked as a win if
your team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they lose.

(50:47):
I've benefited from this no sweat money line offer. If
you want to bet this, bet it at bet three
sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is Steelers and Colts.
Find the boost under either the Steelers or Colts game
pages on bet three sixty five. Let's talk about our

(51:10):
money line underdog round Robin h there will come up
pay day, Holla, lou Yo, wanna pay day.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
There will come up.

Speaker 5 (51:19):
Payday someday some day there will come up payday.

Speaker 3 (51:24):
Holla, lou Yo, wanna payday? I will come up payday
some day.

Speaker 1 (51:30):
These are my entries. Tell me if you feel differently ready,
Steelers yep, Saints yep, Colts yeah, Texans mm hmmm, I'm
gonna disagree. Gimme, gimme, gimme.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
How do we not go? I mean, I know this
is we just talked about it, but how do we
not go?

Speaker 1 (52:02):
Cowboys interesting?

Speaker 4 (52:05):
I want to go with a big one. We've seen
some of these big spreads come through. It feels like
this is the type.

Speaker 2 (52:11):
Of game that no one sees coming.

Speaker 4 (52:12):
And the Eagles pope of upset right now in the
Action Network ap less than nine percent of the money,
and the bets right now in the Cowboys money line.
So this is definitely no one's gonna be joining us
here unless they listen to this show.

Speaker 1 (52:25):
Who's your fifth?

Speaker 4 (52:27):
I want to do the Jags. That's clearly gone now
that Mac Jones is going to be the starter.

Speaker 1 (52:31):
I had it on the list off because of Trevor.

Speaker 2 (52:34):
Yeah, for those.

Speaker 1 (52:36):
Who don't know, Trevor Lawrence is out. It's gonna be
Mac Jones starting for the Jags against the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (52:43):
I want to do the Panthers, but I talked about
I don't do international games on the dog, so that
that's unfortunate because that number is now up to two
plus two forty on their money line, the Carolina Panthers,
which is insane that it's got up that high.

Speaker 2 (52:57):
I'm taking the cheap way out, chat. I was gonna
throw the jetson.

Speaker 4 (53:00):
I mean right now they're minus they're even money basically,
and that can that technically works for a money line
around Robin all right, I.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Can take I was gonna say, we can do the
Jets or like we could also do the Dolphins, but.

Speaker 2 (53:12):
No, don't do it to me.

Speaker 4 (53:13):
One the biggest one is if the Cowboys come through.
That would be you basically just need to go two
for three on this thing to get money, because that's
how big of a dog right now the Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (53:23):
Are all right, who are your biggest bets right now?

Speaker 4 (53:28):
Yeah, right off the top, Pittsburgh plus three if you
can still find it, love it.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
Obviously, the Giants at five and a half.

Speaker 4 (53:34):
It's gone. So now that's not gonna be one of
my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half.
Colts right now. Them in Pittsburgh. I would say my
two biggest lines on waiting on Detroit. That's gonna be
my bigger bets, depending on who's healthy for Houston.

Speaker 2 (53:48):
Rams will probably get up there because it is the
money night game.

Speaker 4 (53:51):
And then obviously we just talked about it, this forty
nine Ers team at five and a half, six even
McCaffrey gets cleared and he's good to go. Even had
six and a half, I would still be pritting this
pretty heavy on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
So as long as it's below seven for that forty
nine Ers game, I really love that matchup this week.

Speaker 1 (54:07):
Biggest bets Colts, Steelers, Rams, waiting on Detroit, waiting on
San Francisco. When all hope is lost, all that's left
is relief.

Speaker 2 (54:21):
Let's play Scoots Roulette.

Speaker 1 (54:25):
Simon, you're six and three and Scoot Roulette. I am
not who is your cruelette pick? I have two listed
in the script. I am hoping you don't choose either
of those. I will choose the opposite if you do.

Speaker 2 (54:41):
I mean, I want to go Colts or Pittsburgh, but
I feel like I need to trust my brethren on
my big miss this week, and I'll go with the
Jets minus one or plus one whatever.

Speaker 1 (54:53):
Wow, you're getting bullied into a scoot Rulette pick.

Speaker 4 (54:57):
Well, I want I want to give out something that
I already haven't given out. So I'm hoping people maybe
this pushes them over the edge to take this Jets
number here and trust the professionals.

Speaker 1 (55:05):
My choices were between San Francisco and the Colts, and
I'm going with the Colts. I mean, I'm I'm going
with the Niners. I'm going with the Niners. The only
reason I said Colts is because that's the first team
name that I saw when I was in the script.
And I'm going with the Niners. All right, scoot Roulette,
you're on the Jets. I'm on the Niners. Before we

(55:27):
get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research
Evan Abrams. Make us feel better about everything we've said.
Please the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

Speaker 5 (55:41):
You guys going back and forth on which picture, liking
which picture throwing away? This is just going to be
so much fun. But on the tip of the tongue
right now is Mac Jones. So I did look up
a few things as I was kind of doing things
on my own here. Mac Jones three and fifteen against
the spread as an underdog, and his last eighteen starts.
Now that line is up to about six and a
half right now now, and I was trying to get
a good comp from Mac Jones. So since twenty twenty two,

(56:04):
he has the EPA per play of Josh Dobbs, he
has the completion percentage over expected of Bryce Young, and
he has the success rate of HAYLEB Williams. I'm sorry,
but that is actually what it is, and I apologize
for that.

Speaker 3 (56:17):
Okay, let's go into the funeral.

Speaker 1 (56:19):
That was a low blow.

Speaker 5 (56:21):
I honestly, when I saw it on the screen, I
was like, oh, well, this is exactly what has to happen.
But I apologize Tomlin as a dog. We understand that,
we've heard that millions of times. I took another layer
into it, which I thought was kind of interesting.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
Lets the greatest of all time, look at you work.

Speaker 5 (56:35):
So how does he do against stopping elite offenses? He
is twenty one fifteen and one against the spread, fifty
eight percent versus opponents, averaging twenty eight plus points per game.
When he's a dog in that spot, he's fourteen and
seven against the number and because I was curious, even
without Big Ben, that's still four to two and one
against the spread, because I know a lot of those
numbers are juiced because of it. So kind of interesting.

(56:56):
You guys have been flip flopping back and forth a
little bit with that Eagle Dallas line, a little scared
of what's going on if you do land on Dallas.
This is probably the reason why you'll get the cover.
So last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and
leads by ten plus points at any point in the game,
they are still just five six and two against the spread.

Speaker 3 (57:16):
They are the only team in the NFL below five
hundred ats in that spot after leading by ten plus
points as a favorite, So something usually happens. They make
a dumb mistake, Dallas gets back in the game, see
what happens, and I'll leave you with one more. This
is simply just a numbers play at four because I
knew you guys were interested in Indy. Trying to figure

(57:36):
out a reason why Indy might cover this game isn't
exactly easy when they don't do a lot of the
things right that Buffalo does. But let's just put it
this way. INDI's played eleven straight games decided by one score.
INDI's played sixteen straight home games where the line is
under four either way, so three or less either side,

(57:56):
sixteen straight. They've played six in a row at home
one score of sixteen one score, so at four it's
a very, very valuable number. I don't think there's anyone's
going to tell you differently, and I know Chad's going
to be like, this doesn't matter, but I did find
it interesting. Historically, Indy isn't the easiest place to play
for good teams sixty six plus plus win percentage going

(58:18):
into Indy culture thirty fifteen and one against the spread
last twenty years and three and oh against the spread
last three seasons, so kind of working both ways. Difficult
place to play, that's a situation for us.

Speaker 1 (58:31):
I mean, look, I'm gonna take it because it's confirmation biased,
but really historical context for teams.

Speaker 3 (58:38):
Who cares correct correct. But I liked it, and I
added it, and I knew I get that feedback, and
I love it.

Speaker 1 (58:45):
Everything about that Eagles stat just says, wow, is Nick
Sirianni a terrible, terrible in game coach? That is that
is that that's honestly what we're betting on. We hate
Mike McCarthy. We don't think he's very good either, and
he doesn't have any players right now. But we're really
betting against Nick Siriani being able to make the right
decisions as the game goes on if they have a

(59:06):
big lead. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented
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(59:29):
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(59:50):
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and I will return with our next episode of The
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