The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 15

With their eyes all aglow for their live event in Philadelphia Thursday night, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk best bets for NFL Week 15. Together they discuss a contentious spot for Mike Tomlin, the potential top of the market for the Carolina Panthers, and a sea of underdogs worth investing in. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am
Lie from my Tommy John home studio, which is actually
my studio in a hotel in Philadelphia. I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, MIKEA and Padre

(00:31):
and my bff professional Better Simon Hunter and O Simon Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Welcome to the birthplace of freedom, Philadelphia.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
I'm feeling very free. It is a beautiful, beautiful day
in Philadelphia. Always worry when you're doing these live events,
and we have our live event at the Wicked Wolf
and Center City in Simon's hometown. You always worry, like
isn't going to be raining and does that keep people
from getting to the polls or in the case to

(01:00):
the Wicked Wolf. We are going to gather with friends.
We're gonna do a live show. We're going to watch
the Niners cover the two and a half against the Rams.
That number is already up to three. We're gonna bet
and sweat some special bet three six ' five boosts
with all of our fans. By the way, even if
you're not there, you will be able to play the

(01:21):
Bet three sixty five boosts along with us. More on
that in a minute. Today is our NFL Week fifteen
Best Bets Episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our
five our five favorite picks to put into the Favorites
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented
by Bet three six y five sign Up now Favorites

(01:45):
dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We'll get into the Foxhoil. We'll
give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week.
We're gonna discuss Simon's the biggest bets. We'll get to
our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin,
and so much more. Bets are rolling in, lines are moving.
It has been a weird week with lines going up

(02:07):
and down, and up and down and up and down,
some crossing key numbers. Decisions need to be made. As
our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhurt likes to say there's
a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the
Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred
and fifty dollars and bonus bets when you bet five dollars,

(02:30):
sign up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars, place
a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
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used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever
the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five
must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

(02:51):
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. All right, it's Thursday, as always Thursdays during
the season. We'd like to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.

(03:14):
The lines move based on our conversations, and the pros
feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's
do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
You do man?

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yeah, started a Thursday game. We've seen this number move right.
We both liked forty nine ers at two and a half.
Now most books are showing three. It's still taking at three,
but obviously you want the best of the number, so
shop right if you find it two and a half,
because that is the professional Sorry, now I don't know
may to any pros taking it at minus three. I
know plenty that are hammering this two and a half. Beside,
we're not on a lot of pros I've talked to.

(03:58):
They like Miami. Maybe it's a game you want to discuss.
We can just keep it moving. But I think they
view it of this Houston teams. I was still a
little overrated that Miami is not as bad as we perceive.
It's a nice spot to back this Miami team, I
guess in their perspective. So that's one that wasn't really
onder my radar. I was shocked here so many guys
like that. Side another game maybe will end up as
our one of our five. A lot of the pros

(04:19):
love this Jags and I were just like we did
a three and a half, and it really is all
about this Jets team getting too much respect. And I
thought it was gonna be a lot of professionals on
the Jets once again, but it seems like it was
just like a small group playing the number at two
and a half three on that Jets side, and most
pros aligned with our view of it, taking the Jags
of three and a half. It's just really about two
bad teams and one of them is getting over a

(04:40):
field goal that just to me feels pretty easy to
take that bad side a game that you know, we've
talked a lot about. I know that we like Pittsburgh.
Every probably've talked to you Chat is on this Eagles team.
So that's one maybe to dive into. Yeah, it's it's
a really shaped up to be a pros versus Joe's
kind of game. And see there's a couple of pros

(05:00):
out there that they've taken the Pittsburgh side. But yeah,
right now, Chat, it looks like we are the Joe
public side in that Pittsburgh Eagles game. Another one we
love that. You know, we've kind of lose hesitant, I
guess on Tuesday, But the more I've looked into it,
it feels like it's a good spot. This Colts number.
We've seen it come down to four and a half.
Some books now are three and a half. That's one

(05:23):
we'll definitely have to dive into track because I love
the professionals, love the Colts Tampa. I really love this side.
It's more split that I thought it was gonna be.
There's some professionals that really like the Chargers. Once again,
it's all about the number. I know some pros I've
taken the charge at two and a half, but people
like me have bet heavier on the other side of
Tampa plus three. So that's that's been a really interesting

(05:43):
back and forth. I'm actually on the wrong side of
this one, apparently. I like Green Bay minus two and
a half. Talked a lot of pros who like the Seahawks.
I feel like I'm dugging. They're dug in. They believe
in the Seahawks defense, and I believe in just that
the Green Bay is just one of the better teams
running the NFC. Play against a Seahawks team that feels
like they've caught teams in the right moments and they're

(06:04):
kind of been punching above their weight that they're a
little overrated, overinflated right now. So I'm excited to hear
your opinion on that now that we sit here on Thursday,
and the last one, me and Chad we talked about Detroit.
It was minus one and a half on the show.
We humbly try not to say it's just because they'll
show this number move, but we saw it happen in
real time. We gave it out and all of a

(06:24):
sudden it was two and a half by the time
we were closing the show, So not that shocking the public,
and a couple of professionals have lined up on the
bill side when it gets to two and a half
and f three. I know plenty of pros that love
this Lions team, especially when it touches too. So yeah,
there's other games we haven't touched on just because the
number of lines moved so much, but those are the
ones that really jumped out and me a lot of

(06:44):
noise between those that obviously the most talked about games
right now, especially you know, I was with five professionals
last night. Everyone had a really strong opinion either on
the Eagles game. We're on this line's bills game. So yeah,
really fun week breaking these all down.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
Oh that's awesome. I'm so glad to hear it. The
one quibble I have with you is I feel like
we talked a lot about Miami. I was like I
wanted to like Houston, and the more I dug into it,
the more I liked Miami. I have it on our
list to discuss today, so we're definitely gonna get into

(07:19):
that one. Don't don't forget, folks, if you're listening to
this live. Tonight is our free favorite podcast watch party
at Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philly. I'm in Philly already.
Matt Mitchell is in Philly already. Simon, of course, is
just outside Philly and on his way in later today

(07:42):
seven pm. I'm gonna watch the Thursday night football game
between the Rams and the Niners. If you're watching live
and you're in the area, come on by. There's time
to RSVP. You got RSVP if you're listening to the
podcast version. We had a blast. It was so much fun.
All right, let's get rolling Dallas, Carolina, Carolina. Look, Carolina
is at two and a half right now at bet

(08:04):
three sixty five. It's at three at a lot of places.
So this was on the list as if we have to,
we're gonna bet it. I pulled the trigger. I bet
the Panthers at two and a half. It's kind of
remarkable to say this, Simon, Do we think the value
is lost on the Panther right now as favorites, Like

(08:28):
is it just gone?

Speaker 2 (08:30):
Yeah? And this is a game that feels like the
professionals better earlier in the week and then they're not
so much betting at this point. Right when Carolina was
a dog or they opened up minus one, that's when
we saw a lot of the money coming. Like last night,
a lot of the guys I was talking to, they're
just not interested in it just because of all the
line movement, and it's it's getting to the point, like
we talked about where I might have to bet the
Cowboys because like you just said, the line might move

(08:52):
too much, and eventually if it does stay at three
and gets up to three and a half, that's where
the value would be. But at two and a half, Tat,
I can't fault you for taking the pack Anthers like
this feels like it should be three. Want to be
shocked in the lands right on three. I mean, these
are just two bad teams, right and one team is
really banged up in the Cowboys. On the flip side,

(09:12):
we've seen this Panthers team be a totally different team
since their bye week, and they've really turned things around.
And like you said, eventually the luck of all the
you know, Bryce Young thrown off his back foot, perfect
dimes drop into the corner. It is gonna run out
like it's just he's been playing so above his head.
Right now that everyone's turned right, everyone I talk to

(09:34):
now is back in on Bryce Shung this Panthers team.
So you're right for feeling like it might be the
time to jump off. I just view it as I
don't know, it feels like there's still valuing this Panthers team,
just because I do view them as the better team
and they are at home against the Cowboys team that
we've seen has struggled on the road. So yeah, it's
it's a tricky number chat because it's it has moved

(09:55):
so much. So it's just when I've just avoided altogether.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
Yeah, I don't think we'll get into the contest because
I think in the contest it'll be at two and
a half. Like you and I, we both like to
not look at the numbers until after the Thursday show,
just so we're not cheating a little bit in the contest.
We like to do it at the end of this program,
so I haven't seen the way it's been sitting at
two and a half all week. At bet three six five,
the Panthers will be at two and a half in

(10:19):
the contest, so we'll have to see. Like with the
rest of the games we're talking about, I felt pretty
confident about five we could get to without the Panthers,
but after hearing sharp calls, I wonder if we're going
to be able to do that. So right now it's
on the outside looking in. I would say there are
probably three games that are waffling between that two and

(10:42):
a half and three this week that we're going to
talk about. This is one of them that if it's
a two and a half, we like one side, if
it's a three, we like the other. So I'm excited
to dig into those as well. Cleveland at Kansas City
Cleveland right now at bet three sixty five is plus five.
There are a smattering of four and a half's out there.

(11:04):
Don't forget this was at six and a half on
Sunday night when we first flagged it. I went back,
I listened, I looked at our notes from Tuesday. I
think we were being cowardly hoping we could avoid this game.
I actually put in my notes we both said we

(11:25):
wanted to avoid this game given how snake bit we
were last week when we had the Browns and we
had the Chiefs and neither went our way. But how
are we like not ignoring the teams here and just
playing the number. If you look back at that Browns

(11:45):
game and Nick Giffin, doctor Nick with the luck rankings,
had a analysis of the Browns in that Steelers game
and showed how it's beyond and like bad luck, what
happened in that game, and how they should have covered.
I feel like we have to be taking the Browns here.

Speaker 2 (12:08):
Yeah. I don't voulch for that. I mean, we did
talk about it. If it's pretty simple, and at this point,
if it's above three right against my home, yeah you
should just fade them. But that's just my issue here, chat.
It's just too easy. And I guess that's just me
something that's done this a long time that usually when
it's too easy, it's not as is perceived, and we
can have all the unlucky stats in the world, it

(12:31):
doesn't account for jamis like that's the issue with that metric.
It's like, were they unlucky against Denver or is that
just the full James experience, like him throwing that pick
once again after drove the field and we're on the
four four yard line, and like last week he talked
about that turner rehad kind of killed the game right
the pick to the defensive lineman. So that's my hesitation

(12:54):
here is just there's other dogs. I feel like I
have a better read on that can be more consistent,
and I trust the number more. Then we play this
number and neither of us to be shipped. Would be
surprised if the Chiefs defense just completely dominate to destroys
this Browns offense. The reason I want to join you
on the Browns just because of what we talked about.
That D line against the Chiefs offensive line, that should

(13:16):
be a huge matchup for that Browns team. Like Miles Garrett,
even with all of his injuries, should be able to
get to the quarterback just about any time he won,
especially if they're doing what Andy Reid's been doing, which
is not leaving tight ends in the block, Like even
last week, they knew that guy was struggling that tackle,
and it's like Andy Reid wasn't leaving anyone in the chip.
He doesn't have the running back chip on that side either.

(13:37):
It was like they're trying to run their same old
offense where they just can't. Like it just is not
the same offense as they've been a run before. So
I'm with you, Chad. It's like, if we had to
for Saint Cleveland, I could get behind it. It's just
it makes me uneasy because of the Winston effect. It's
just been as fun as it's been bettering on him.
It's been obviously a terrible experience these last couple of weeks.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
Well, look we got we got to win for all
the Jamis reasons. Throw in two pick sixes and by
the way, the pick at the end of the game,
which would have allowed him to get into the back door.
And then we lost with Jamis when there was a
turnover by Jamis with three minutes you know, a little

(14:19):
more than four minutes left in the game before the
Canarius Tony fumble on the punt where they were driving
on the Steelers thirty five yard line and they were
down twenty seven to fourteen, and Jamis turnover. Here's what
I would say. Number One Your point about the offensive
line for the Chiefs is massive. They did a terrible
job defending against the Chargers defensive line, and the Chargers

(14:44):
defensive line is not even close to as good as
the Browns defensive line. Right, the Browns lead the league
in pressure rate going against then no line. They cannot
protect Patrick Mahomes for an extended period. We've seen it
week after week after a week. Whether it's Wanya Morris,
DJ Humphries, it doesn't matter who's on the edge at

(15:07):
left tackle. They have to change their offense. You're right,
they're not bringing anyone into Chip instead and Reid is
just deciding we're gonna throw the ball in under half
a second. Right, it's gonna be two step drop five seconds.
We're done, and so or not five seconds like two
step drop half a second point five seconds, we're done.

(15:27):
Get the ball out. So that's number one. The Chiefs
defensive backfield, by the way, literally signing guys off the street.
Steven Nelson, who they drafted in twenty fifteen, played a
few years with them and retired, was just signed to
the Chiefs practice squad because they have no defensive backs.
Andy Reid's comment when he was signed. This was great.

(15:51):
He was a good player when he was here. He
hasn't been there in like five years, So I don't
think the Chiefs can cover an anybody. And if they
can't cover anybody, then Spagnola can't blitz the way he
likes to blitz because he doesn't have any help in
the back end of the defense. So I know it's
all it doesn't matter, it's all up to Jamis.

Speaker 2 (16:13):
Yeah, will he throwed.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
That stupid pick? But like matchup wise, number wise, it's great,
Browns are decided right, But you're right, we're betting on Jay.
At the end of the day, it's James. It's Jamis.
What are you gonna do? So Miami at Houston? Like
we discussed it on Tuesday for a while. So like.

Speaker 2 (16:34):
Because me personally, it's not all about you, Chav. I
was just talking to me personally, not having a read
on it.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
Wait, what do you mean are you're acting like.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
I like dismissed that we never talked about it. I
was just more of the viewpoint of I just don't
have a read on it, Like I wanted to be
on Houston, But it seems like most professional I've talked to,
they like Miami. So it's just it's one of those
times I can avoid. I would avoid.

Speaker 1 (16:56):
I'm like a professional, and I wanted to be on
Houston too, and then I did my research and realize,
oh my god, I might have to be on Miami.
That's what I do. Simon, what a missing?

Speaker 2 (17:05):
What's your research saying about Miami?

Speaker 1 (17:06):
My research about Miami is saying that they're actually better
in the red zone than we think offensively, they're better
defensively in the red zone than we think, and that
this is probably a pretty good matchup for them if
the number is at three. At two and a half,
we probably like the Texans at three, I lean Dolphins.
I have not bet it. I don't want to put

(17:27):
it in the contest. I was really thinking this would
auto This was going to be an auto play for
me on the Texans coming off of by as healthy
as they've been all season. But I still can't get
there because I think the Dolphins are better than we think.

Speaker 2 (17:44):
All right, I agree, then I would take Miami, but
obviously we're never going to get the number we won.
If it was three and a half in contest, I
would love it. It's going to be two and a half.
All the books are showing it's in between two and
a half and three. So yeah, it looks like it's
a game.

Speaker 1 (17:56):
We'll just avoid zero edge at three. That's what I
I wrote in my notes. Dude, we're heading into a
live event and you and I right now we're mind melding.
That's what's happening Cincinnati at Tennessee. I left this on
We don't have to get into it. I really only
left it on the list because I want to see

(18:18):
if there were any sharp calls about it. Because we
talked about Tennessee being the right side. The number feels
a little bit too high. Cincinnati's basically a one dimensional
team right now. The problem is the Titans might not
have any dimensions. So I just like we can skip it.
We're not going to put in the contest. I only

(18:38):
want to talk about it if there was significant sharp
money coming in on the Titans. Are you hearing anything?
Has anything happened in your research the past forty eight
hours to put you on the Titans?

Speaker 3 (18:51):
Uh?

Speaker 2 (18:51):
I mean we talked like we're being the Titans just
because of the number, and it's a nice spot to
back the book like this is a game. The books
are going to need and you know, obviously hasn't worked
out totally this year, but historically that's the exact why
you want to be on and from my view of
like the professionals, I like this side. It's really about

(19:12):
something we've talked about just that, oh why and with
Joe Burrow and the fact that you know, the strength
of Tennessee is up the middle, so that means he'll
be having pressure right in his lap, which we've seen
him struggle with right and obviously this season he's putting
on one of the best performance he's ever seen by
a quarterbacks. So they've navigated all that pressure not just
from the side up the middle, and he's found made

(19:33):
a way to make it work. But you know, like
we talked about, we want to take it just because
of this number. And it feels like Cincinnati got away
with one last week, right like that was an incredibly
lucky When we've been we've been behind those lucky covers,
that was an incredibly lucky cover by that Cincinnati team.
So it just feels like my most pros view, we'd
viewed the same way. It's an overinflated line should be

(19:56):
three three and a half you're getting five. Good luck
if you're back and well, it's just it's a tough
spot and tough number to be in.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
Well, back in will Levis at five actually feels scarier
than back in Jamis four and a half because at
least Jamis, we know, can get the ball down the
field and he will be able to find open receivers
and score touchdowns. I don't know if Will Levis can
do that.

Speaker 2 (20:20):
Now we're down ten with Jamis, I have some confidence
and one down ten with will Levis. No, okay, yeah,
it's exactly, it's over.

Speaker 1 (20:27):
It's a dead bet. Ye dead bet. So I didn't
put this in the in the script, but you mentioned
in order this would be where it is. You mentioned
the Jags at plus three and a half. Yeah, you know,
I'm surprised there's that much activity from professional betters on
the Jags at three and a half. Like there's, like

(20:48):
we said on Tuesday, lame duck coach versus an interim coach,
a backup quarterback who's not very good coming off asters win,
and over the hill quarterback who's not as good as
he used to be coming off a preposterous loss. I
guess the hook is what hooked people.

Speaker 2 (21:14):
Yeah, and I'm also just a believer in that this
team has been the Jaguars again. It's all when you
get to this time of year, you're looking for a
bunch of the stuff. But I really do like to
focus on home and away splits. They're just some teams
that perform well at home and some that do not.
And we've seen this season this Jaguars team, whether it's
Trevor Lawrence or so far Mac Jones, they have played

(21:37):
better when they're at home. And you know, earlier in
the year, they played green Bay. That was a game
I famously made us bet Chad was cating me for
because Green Bay was out playing Jacksonville all the way
to the very end. I got really lucky the running
back laid down at the one yard line. Green Bay
wins thirty to twenty seven. We cover that three and
a half. Minnesota went down at Jacksonville, right, that was

(22:00):
one of the ugest, hoppiest games you've ever seen. Jacks
covered that game. They lost twelve to seven, like another
weird game that they somehow covered. Then they obviously got
rolled at Detroit. We all remember. But then they went
on their bye week and we've seen that since their
bye week. They played Houston at home. They lost twenty
three to twenty a nice. Once again, me and Chow
we all on that number. We covered the back door

(22:21):
the three and a half, and then last week, like
we already talked about, they were down six nothing head
into the fourth quarter, the kick a field goal, end
up getting a touchdown. They win ten to six with
mac Jones. So it's it's a team that, as much
as you want to say it's a lame duck coach
and that it's a team that's given up, they're clearly
still playing hard and putting it all together. And it's
clearly a team that the market is still not valued,

(22:43):
right right. I mean it's back to back weeks now,
they've been three and a half, and to me, that's
my view of it. Of it feels like once again
the Jets are being a little overvalued. I get it.
Aaron Rodgers did look better last week, but like we
talked about, he's been incredibly inconsistent and maybe they did
find something. Chat I'm about to get burned here by
backing this Jaguars team, but to me, it just feels

(23:05):
like I'm playing the number where It's like, why would
the Jags not win this game out right? Why is
this not closer to a pick? These are very evenly
matched teams, especially when you add in the mix that
you know MATC. Jones. We've seen it now back to
back weeks. He finds something lay in the games and
he can turn it on. This is a Jets defense
that can be passed on, like it's not this Juggernaut

(23:27):
get good stops kind of defense. So that's just my
view of a chat. It's really about playing the numbering
just that it feels like, once again, this Jets team's
over valid, especially the fact that they're coming off a cover.
Were a lot of better. So we've just seen it,
especially in the Action app. All the money, all the
tickets right now feels are on the Jets, and a
couple of books have moved it from three and a
half down to three just to protect against a lot

(23:48):
of professional money coming on the Jaguar side.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
All right, So I'm leaving it on the list right now.
Our list of five includes Cleveland at four and a
half and the Jags at three and a half. We're
going to get to a streak of games where it's
gonna be the ones that we really feel strongly about.
But as usual, we're starting off scary. Speaking of scary,
I'm just saying this game. We have no intention of

(24:13):
putting it in the contest, but the New York Giants
are now sixteen and a half point home underdogs against
the Ravens. I just put this one on the list
because the number has gotten so outrageous. This has to
be a wise guy play at this number. There's like
the last two examples of a sixteen from Evan, The

(24:36):
last two examples of a sixteen plus point dog have
all been the Giants, once in twenty twenty three at
the Cowboys, once in twenty twenty two at the Eagles.
Sixteen plus point dogs fourteen to twelve against the spread
since twenty eighteen, so you know, it's plus money a

(24:59):
little bit. The last time there was a plus sixteen
point dog at home, we mentioned this on Tuesday Jags
versus the Bills in twenty two. The Jags won nine six.
Matt Mitchell remembers it well, he did not get to
eat wings with surgical gloves that day. But since nineteen

(25:20):
ninety it's happened eleven times. Sixteen plus point dogs are
only five and six against spread, So now Tommy DeVito
is a quarterback, it doesn't feel like an auto play anymore.
But tell me if I'm wrong.

Speaker 2 (25:40):
No, I think your view of it is correct. The
since that the Ravens secondary makes it that you want
to bet this number because they have been backdoored and
they are struggling against the past, and I totally get
you're coming from. It's it's tempting. That's why they made
this number so big. That's that's what they're doing here.
They're trying to suck o us in. So I'm doing

(26:01):
my best not to bet it because I'm trying to
be patient. Hope this gets the seventeen, because you're right
right now it's at sixteen six and a half, which
is like, might as well be a dead number. It's
the mathematical odds of it landing on sixteen are so small.
So yeah, it's I get where you're coming from. Maybe
we'll be kicking ourselves when it's they're down eight, driving
with the ball at the end of the fourth quarter

(26:22):
against the Ravens and it's like, how do we not
take this? There was no doubt they were going to
somehow cover this huge number. It just moves too much
at this point. But yeah, as you sit here right now,
I don't. I haven't taken a position on it. I
got a real fill for it. I know some pros
who have bet and it's just it's the exact same
view of chat of just this number is too big
for a team that isn't a top three, top four

(26:43):
team right now in the NFL, in this Ravens team,
like they're just not the team of the past. So
I totally get your perspective.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
You also just wonder is there a little bit of pride?
We know the players know the spreads. We know that
the Giants are looking at this thinking we're nearly seventeen
point underdogs at home, as bad as Tommy DeVito is,
as much as that defensive line might struggle without the

(27:12):
best player in the middle of the line. Like, that's
a huge, huge number. Bookmakers have always told me, like
you basically two x the NFL spread to get to
what it would be in college. If so, if this
was a college number, it would be thirty four, right,

(27:34):
that would be what the spread is. That's a massive
that's a Alabama versus you know, Eastern Carolina State University
of Technology. Number these are NFL players still like that,
just it defies logic to me. If we get it
at seventeen, we're not gonna get in the contest. But

(27:55):
if it gets to seventeen, I'm gonna be looking for
this to put a little bit of piece of action
on Sunday morning. That's That's what I'll be doing, Sir,
Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Simon. I feel like this is going
to have to be our foxhole. H Well, look, you
and I were waffling about this one on Tuesday. It's
come down from five and a half to five, and
like I know, it's a tricky one. I know the

(28:17):
reasons why we hesitated a little bit, like with the
Panthers last week, are because of the Eagles defensive line
and their elite rushing game and their secondary is very good.
But I think there's real And you came at me
a little bit and try to tell me that Jalen

(28:37):
Hurts is similar to Josh Allen. But there's real issues
with this Eagles passing game. They are running the ball
more than they are passing the ball, which is well,
why are you laughing at that?

Speaker 2 (28:52):
Because I don't know why that's an issue and you
have Sae Kwon Barkley and it's not it's.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
Not an issue. But if you can't pass the ball
and it's hard to win against good defenses.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
You know what the definition of say what do you
know what the definition of cant is what? I don't know.
You're definitely using it wrong. Though you just said they
can't throw the ball.

Speaker 1 (29:15):
They can't not as well, they can't throw the ball.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
I just think the hate's gone too far.

Speaker 1 (29:22):
Don't try to get English on me.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
Well, it's just what are you talking about. You're just
you're a crazy person. It's yeah, they can throw the
ball if they need to. They're just a run first
team right now. I just you saw, like the fans
in Philadelphia, It's like, what do you guys want? You
want to throw for four undred yards and lose to
the PA right now. I don't get it. I don't
get it what people want. So I'm happy AJ was
able to laugh at Off. It's just again I was

(29:45):
worrying in the sense of, like, yes, no one wants
their star receiver in their quarterback hating each other and
being and you know, having beef. But it seemed like
they both were able to talk about where it's like
we both know that, you know, the passing game did
struggle last year and that was part of the reason
in the class the collapse did happen. I think that's
what AG is talking about. It's like that we need
to get this on point head into the playoffs because

(30:07):
it's we're not gonna just run the ball three times
against these you know, really good teams. But I don't know,
I have faith in Hurts. It's just like, yeah, you
played well. No, but if they come out here and
they beat Pittsburgh by two touchdowns and he throws for
two fifty and two touchdowns, it's like, are all their
problems solved? I don't think so. Like, I don't think
this is something they can just correct in a week

(30:28):
or two. That's going on with Hurts, right, It's like, yes.
The biggest issue again was AJ was open downfield in
the first quarter. Hurts clearly missed him on which had
been an easy touchdown for AJ, and for the rest
of the game. AJ was a little pissy, bitchy mood
the rest of the game because of that one play,
and then obviously got interviewed after the game immediately said
something you shouldn't have said, Sam, go over to Brander Graham.

(30:50):
So the professionals I talked to, while they like the
Eagles series, they just think this line should be closer
to six and a half seven because of that Panthers game.
You're getting it five five and a half lower number
on this Eagles game. And I just I have a
hard time making the number that big. Like we already
talked about chat, I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here.
The number feels too big. I'll be a sucker with you.

(31:13):
I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just I'll ride the
Tomlin spot. But it's like every pro I know they
like this other side. They like the Eagles side just
because they like this matchup for them. And obviously we
don't even talked about Pickings not playing this game is
a big deal for Pittsburgh offense. And you know, as
much you want to say Cleveland has a good defense,

(31:34):
they don't compare this Eagles team. Right, Eagles are in
the top three and almost every metric that Cleveland team
is not that same defense from the year before. That's
why you know Rusk could get away with throwing deep
balls to Mike Williams and get away the last week
that maybe we're gonna get caught here, Chad, But I'm
with you. It feels like we're walking to a trap.
But it's like I can't avoid it. My model likes
the number. I like the number. I'm happy to go

(31:54):
against the professionals with you, it just feels like it's
too inflated. This game will come down to a field goal,
which once again Pittsburgh has a huge advantage that they
have the much better kicker right now in this matchup.
So it's tough chat. It feels like I'm missing something here,
but I can't help it. It's it's such a big
number for this Pittsburgh team.

Speaker 1 (32:11):
We're in the Foxhil with the Pittsburgh Steelers, all.

Speaker 2 (32:14):
Right, I'm a Foxhoil God. We're gonna unleash he out
here in December because that's what's required.

Speaker 1 (32:18):
My point with the Eagles is really it unless we
believe the Eagles can completely change their game plan to
prove to themselves that AJ and Jalen hurts and this
passing game is fine, and they're going to stop relying
on Saquon Barkley for a game. Don't we have to

(32:41):
believe that this will be a run heavy game that
gives the Steelers a chance to keep it close.

Speaker 2 (32:46):
Right.

Speaker 1 (32:46):
That's that's what I believe more than anything. Whether or
not I believe or you believe, or anyone believes in
Jalen Hurts in the passing game and their ability to
throw the ball, that's not who they are. They're a
run first team because they have Saquon Barkley and they're
off line is amazing, and their defensive line is amazing,
and they make it difficult on other teams because of
their pressure and because of their defensive backfield. So this

(33:11):
should play out as a low scoring game where the
clock bleeds and both teams are trying to run the ball,
and that would play into the favor of the Steelers
covering five or five and a half, which is probably
we're probably going to get five and a half in
the contest. So we're together on this. We might be
coming at it from opposite sides, but we are together

(33:32):
on this, and that's really all that matters. Because when
you're in a foxhole, you got to believe, and you
got to be campadres, and you got to know that
it's you against the world. And I think that's how
you and I are feeling right now, even if even
if this feels tense.

Speaker 2 (33:45):
Yeah, time of that is just I don't trust the number,
and that's what I'm worried about it. There's something I
must be missing here because I just will never understand
why the books hung this number so high. I'll never
make sense why this wasn't three and a half. So
makes no sense. It will make sense once on Sunday
we lose by a.

Speaker 1 (34:01):
Touchdown one hundred, and we're going to be disappointed and
I'm gonna sit on my couch and I'm going to
be like, why did we do this? But at least
I'm going to know that you were with it. I
didn't like I didn't try to talk you into it,
So I'm not gonna feel good. No way, no way,
you fully came around.

Speaker 2 (34:18):
This is Chad's bet. I'm definitely putting this on you.

Speaker 1 (34:20):
Oh my god, you are a fucking coward. All right,
here we go. You ready, guess what It's time for
our big ball Better the We Care presented by Tommy John.
If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes
the greatest. I'd like a little credit for belting it

(34:44):
out in a hotel room and I didn't lose my
voice or cough it out. That's it. That's exciting developments there.
We're going with the Indianapolis Colts plus four at Denver.
From the beginning on Sunday night, we talked about this
game and it just kind of without doing any research,

(35:05):
the number looked funny. It got up to four and
a half. Look, the culture one of those teams that
I think we and professional betters have more respect for
than the market. I think that's reflected in the line
like a couple that with the wind streak that the
Broncos have been on, including that wild game against the

(35:26):
Browns before they're by that they probably shouldn't have covered
at all. I just feel like we have an inflation alert.
You've spent the last couple of days thinking about it.
You're feeling strongly about it. You've spoken to the wise guys,
they're feeling strongly about it. How did you get there?

Speaker 2 (35:44):
Yeah? I think what you just saw at the top, though,
is really about this number. And that's what a lot
of guys are debating. Was just isn't this line inflated
like this feels like it's bumped up way too high.
And yeah, obviously I'm jealous of you. I saw you
got a four and a half, and it's like that
would have been ideal, that would have been the perfect
number for us in the contest. But I'm not gonna
let it totally scare us off. If it's three and

(36:04):
a half, I could still see us put it in,
just because it still feels like it's inflated. And you know,
they haven't played a ton of running quarterbacks this season
obviously Denver, but we saw that even when I went
back and watched that Lamar game, that was a way
you can really kind of stifen their front four like that.
As good as they've been at rushing the passer and
getting to the passer, I've seen a couple of instances

(36:27):
they have struggle against mobile quarterbacks. And we've talked about
bo Knicks. You know, as great as he's played, we
saw last week with the Browns, it's like he's still
hitting a little bit of that rookie wall at this
point where teams are adjusting and making it more difficult
for him, and that we've seen that when it when

(36:48):
it is off game script that he has struggled. So yeah,
I fully support you in this number. I bet it.
I like the Colts here, Like we talked about, the
only real fear here is the difference between this team
that playing at home and on the road, they've just
been a different team. They're obviously way better at home,
this cold Steam, and even Anthony richardson his young career.

(37:09):
I mean you can go back and look, he is
a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit
on the road. Again, maybe that has to do with
outdoors all this other stuff that we don't know because
he's only played you know, eleven games up to this
point of twelve games in the NFL, so that stuff
is tough to say. But another game, just like that
one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like
pros versus Joe's another week of the professionals are all

(37:32):
hammering one side and the public is very happy thinking
they're getting a good number on the other side. So yeah, Chaed,
I'm with you and back in the books here and
taking this three and a half four with this cold Steam.

Speaker 1 (37:42):
Also a couple of really interesting injury developments Riley Moss
of the Broncos. Yeah, cornerback, the only player in the
Broncos not to practice so far this week, so does
not look like he'll be playing. Anyone who was watching
that Broncos Browns game on Monday night knows that William Vance,
the cornerbacker, replaced him. He just got freaking torched by

(38:06):
Jamis and Jerry Judy. That was the reason why they
stayed in that game. Every single time you looked up,
he was giving up a huge, huge play to Judy
with including a couple of touchdowns. So that's a big
deal for the Broncos in their past defense. Also, Ryan Kelly,
the Pro Bowl center for the Colts. He is practicing

(38:27):
again this week, coming off injured reserve with an injury
that he was limited in practice on Wednesday, But he
is in the window where they can activate him if
they feel comfortable with it. So that might be something
that gives you a little bit more confidence betting on
the Colts. Also, Anthony Richardson, you talked about it. He's
got a touch of Bryce Young in him in terms

(38:48):
of since he's been benched, he's been considerably better. Pro
Football Focus has him eighth in their overall passing grades
fourth and big time throws since his Week ten returned,
so we're on the colts. I think we'll get him
at four and a half in the contest, but I
also like him at three and a half as you do, Simon.
We can hear the bells, we can smell the gingerbread.

(39:12):
The holiday season is upon us, and with over twenty
million pairs sold and thousands of five star reviews, let's
make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition.
It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but
it feels great to give Tommy John. You'll feel the
warm glow of upgrading someone's life, and with breathable comfort,

(39:35):
they'll feel those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon,
why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John
this season?

Speaker 2 (39:45):
Because it's the gift that last.

Speaker 1 (39:47):
Shop Tommy john dot com slash favorites right now for
the holidays and get thirty percent off sight wide. Save
thirty percent off at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites
Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. I wear my Tommy
Johns for the Big Live Show tonight, packed him special
just for the show. All Right, big game. I thought

(40:08):
this was going to end up being a Foxhole game,
even though it was already our exec decision. I thought
it might be a big balls even though it was
our exec decision. Buffalo at Detroit. Detroit's minus two and
a half. We loved it. It one and a half and
it moved right, and it moved while we were on
the show. Now it's at two and a half. Seventy

(40:28):
percent of the tickets on the bills, so we have
a reverse line move here, which means even though the
tickets are coming in on the bills, the line has
moved in the Lion's direction. It's gone up. I think
the lines are the better team. Nothing I've done since
Tuesday makes me feel differently. I think they might be
as healthy as they've been in weeks. Across the defensive line,

(40:49):
they could be getting a lot of players back. They
haven't played in ten days. The last thing they did
it was at home. They haven't left home since they
were on the road at India on November twenty fourth.
Where do you feel? How do you feel? What are
you thinking?

Speaker 2 (41:07):
Am I agree? I mean I love the lines. Obviously
we wish it was one and a half. If it's
two and a half, chat, I could still see us
putting this on the contest, just because that was.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
My question for you, like I would. I'm waffling a
little bit at the two and a half. I don't
know why, but maybe I'm losing my courage a little
bit because the number, because I'm like, I'm hearing whispers
about people who like the Bills too.

Speaker 2 (41:29):
Yeah, me too. And my view with though, is what
you just talked about. I just think the Lines, even
with all their injuries to the defense, I still think
they're the better team overall. I mean, we haven't really
talked about just because the Bills. I mean Josh Allen,
like I said, he's been Captain America and it hasn't matter.
But they have what sixty million in dead cap money,
some crazy agreeious number this season because the whole thing
that went on with Digs and you know they've overcome

(41:51):
that because of him. But they have they overcome in
the sense that they're about to beat now one of
the best teams in all football in the Lines at home.
Like we just talked about it. It's like, I get
all the love and respect for this Bills team, that
this number has to below three. Like we talked something
when this was at three, It's like, okay, and that number,
I would take the Bills. But once it's dipped under that,

(42:13):
that that to me is why I want to be
on this this Lion's team, and our our hesitation here
is just that me and Chat. I don't know how
many times you've been on the plus two and a
half number and it's literally landed on two and we've
covered almost every time on that two and a half.
So maybe that's the hesitation here. But there's a couple
of favorites I like this week at mine two and
a half and I'm gonna I'm gonna, I'm gonna ride
it with it. I just think matchup wise, this is

(42:35):
a good matchup for the Lions team. That Bills team
is as good as they are now. Great, Josh Allen
is you know this Lion's team I feel about it
get stops defensively and on the other side of the ball.
I don't know how the Bills will get stops defensively.
Like it feels like if the Lions choose to run
the ball down this Bills team's throat, they'll be able
to do it like that's we've seen it now that

(42:57):
this this two headed monster is just something special Montgomery
and Gibbs. So yeah, another game. I'm trying to hard
out there. Everything check because I'm with you. My instinct
right away was like, Bills, take Josh Allen as a dog,
as a three point dog, take it now. But now
we've settled into this week, and the more I thought
about it, it's like, oh, this is a good number. We're
getting good value on this Lions team. I would honestly

(43:19):
probably take this up to three now at this point,
like I probably would still take Detroit at minus three
the more I've looked in this game. So yeah, just
a tough spot for this Bills team coming off such
a brutal game against the Rams, facing, like you just said,
a Lion's team that's coming off extended rust at home,
getting guys back healthy. This should just be a great
matchup for them.

Speaker 1 (43:38):
Also, the Bill's coming off a brutal stretch, right playing
the Chiefs, playing the Niners, going across the country, playing
the Rams in a in a crazy game, physical game.
Uh now they got to travel again. For the Lion
it's just a it's a. It's a rough it's a
rough spot for the Bills. So all right, good, then
I feel better about putting the Lions in at two

(44:00):
and a half. You've kind of convinced me. You made
me fin.

Speaker 2 (44:02):
I've been hitting it like I've been betting this, but
it was just sitting at too, I was like, I
got to keep betting this until it goes up to
two and a half and there's still some twos out there.
If you want this number.

Speaker 1 (44:10):
You know what. You've supported me the way Tommy John
supports me. You are my personal Tommy John. H Tampa
Bay plus three at the Chargers. You've talked about it,
you've liked it. You love this one on Tuesday, second
week in a row. You like Tampa. Clearly you are
seeing something. You're right, it's split. I've heard things going

(44:33):
both ways. Yeah, so I feel like this is mostly
a pro play though, Like I think the line is
at three and it's going to go back down to
two and a half. What are you seeing that makes
you feel so good?

Speaker 2 (44:46):
And is I told you it's split that the guys
taking the three of professionals and then I know plenty
of professionals taking the two and a half on the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (44:52):
So it's yeah, exactly. I think it's the.

Speaker 2 (44:54):
Game that if you're like, I don't want to put
this in because it's so split, I would totally understand
because it's It's definitely a game I was on Monday
and Tuesday on this Tampa team, and I've pulled back
is the week has gone along hearing some other people's
opinions and look at the numbers of like, Okay, do
I really want to risk a ton of money on
Baker on the road in this exact spot. But I

(45:15):
just view this Tampa as a more complete team right
now and a healthier team playing against a Chargers team
that I still think they're overvalued, Like I thought they
were overvalidated in last week. They got away with it right.
They had two good drives that had resulted in touchdowns.
Really that changed that game. Other than the outside there's
two touchdowns, they really didn't do much. Herbert didn't do
much in that game. So even you know, I'm not

(45:36):
trying to bash Herbert because obviously he's playing with terrible
receivers right now, but he's also been inconsistent of the season,
which is my not coming into him this season was
like he can, you can have a really good one quarter,
but then he'll have three quarters of just struggling, not
doing much. And this Tampa team, they have their running
backs like they're not missing their top guy like that
the Jaguar. The Chargers are in JK. Dobbins and they're

(45:58):
not missing their number receiver that like the Chargers are
with McConkey. They have Mike Evans back, and you've seen
it that they've kind of had Mike Evans be break
glass in case of emergency, like they haven't really been
forcing him the ball and put him in these terrible
positions that really mess with his lower body because that's
that was injuries coming off of and looking at this matchup,

(46:19):
you know, maybe they put Durwin James on them, but like,
I don't see anyone on the side of the Chargers.
I'll be able to take away the Mike Evans factor
that whenever he wants, he'll be able to get there.
And you know, as the season that comes along, as
great as Joel has been in the offensive line of
the Charges have been, overall, they're not one of the
best offensive lines. Like there are ways to attack and
especially in the interiors. So it's just about the number

(46:41):
for me and loving this Tampa team. Like Unfortunately, I
was hoping in our contest we would get three and
a half. There's no way because we already talked about it,
like a lot of books have been moving to two
and a half. So once again, it's a game that
I love the number. We're not gonna get the number
I want and play in the contest, so if we
don't want to put it in on final. With that,
there's other games I like as well.

Speaker 1 (47:00):
Yeah, I mean I think this is this one. There
were three games that were on this two and a
half three line, Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay Chargers, and then
this last one, which I'll transition to, which is your
Simon says, Green Bay two and a half over the
Seahawks on the road in Seattle. And this one has

(47:21):
been bouncing around two. I think in most places it's
now at three, although it was still at two and
a half at bet three six five. I think we'll
get two and a half in the contest. I actually
feel pretty good about the Packers at two and a half.
I feel better about the Packers at two and a
half as favorites than I think I do about the
box at two and a half as dogs.

Speaker 2 (47:43):
Yeah. My only fear with this is I've been hitting
this pretty heavy, and like I talked a couple of
bookmakers and I was like, Oh, you're gonna move us
up to three now, and they said no. I was like,
ah shit, maybe I'm stepping into one here because usually
when I come in and especially guys should respect me,
they will move numbers off my bet. But this one
didn't budge. So the books are taking a stain on
the Seahawks. I know some professionals like the Seahaks here

(48:05):
because they think their defense is still being a little
underrated and that you know, something's not read Jordan Love.
But it's like I don't know. When I go through
all their games and watch them break it down, it's like,
this is still a team that wants to run the
ball in Green Bay, and if they can get any
type of run game going, it's gonna be over for
the Seahawks because that just builds off the four, just

(48:25):
builds off that run game so strong the play action
pass and we've seen it, like Jordan Love loves to
push the ball downfield off play action pass, like if
he has the checkdown of five to ten yards and
it's an easy five to ten yards. He will take
the man that's covered downfield for the twenty five yard
or if he can. He just loves to push the
ball downfield. It's just the way Jordan Love has been
this season. And we've seen the Seahawks, you know, as

(48:47):
good as their defense has been, there are ways to
attacking the ways that I think this Green Bay team
can exploit. And of the on the flip side, it's like,
at what point does the Seahawks team become overrated a
little overvalued? Right? Like they've had a run here where
they've had some really great covers and you know, shocking,
they're eight and five now Heather Division, and I get

(49:11):
where these these pros are coming from. But let's just
break down since their bye week, right, they went to
the forty nine ers and they stole one, right, they
got dined in the whole game that you know, turned
it on. They won twenty to seventeen. Then they played
Arizona at home, a team that we've been on fraud
watch of Arizona all season. We always talk about, we
don't know if Kyler Murray is just inconsistent if he

(49:32):
doesn't really you know, know, how to break down game
for him, because it seems like the second half of
the year every time in his career he struggles. So
he loses. They lose to the Seahawks. Right next game,
they play the Jets, another fluky game that they win,
and then they go to Arizona and beat Arizona again.
So it's like, I get why the public's coming in
on this team after those four straight wins, but when

(49:54):
you really go through it, it's like, are there that
great of wins? I mean, we already talked about those
Arizona games. The first one was a little fluky, right,
they could have easily gone the other way. Jets game,
same thing. So it just feels like it's a nice
time for me to sell on the Seahawks team that
I know professionals still buying on a me to buy
a low on a green Bay team that I already
gave this stat and everyone else is giving it out

(50:15):
Vikings green Bay Detroit twenty and three playing outside their
division this season, like that's just not something we can ignore.

Speaker 1 (50:21):
Yeah, it's just are you buying the Packers losing against
really good teams or the Seahawks beating teams that aren't
as good in flukey ways. They don't beat the Jets
if they don't get that Leonard Williams touchdown return, Yeah, right,
right right for an interception, right, so I get it.
I probably lean Packers minus two and a half for

(50:43):
the contest versus Bucks plus two and a half. But
you know we can do.

Speaker 2 (50:47):
It's only bigger bet. So it's like I'll probably make
us put at Green Bay. And just because I'm so
heavy invest it, it's like, make make the show be
invested in it too.

Speaker 1 (50:55):
I don't have any Look, I've bet them both. I've
bet more on the Packers at minus two and a
half that I bet in the box at plus three. Okay,
so you know, you know, like you I probably put
what one hundred grand on the Packers at minus two
and a half, two hundred grand.

Speaker 2 (51:10):
Sure, talk about it.

Speaker 1 (51:12):
We can talk about it at this show tonight. Last
game quickly I want to talk about because I know
we want to get to Evan the Bears plus seven,
like like it's just too big of a number. It
doesn't make any sense. There's no way the Viking should
be seven point favorites against the Bears in the division,
Like if we didn't if we didn't have the bias

(51:35):
of the Bears and what happened last week, and we
didn't have the bias of sam Donold lighting it up
against the Falcons, and we just saw this number with
teams in this division, and we saw the stats for
the Bears defense. We would play the Bears. We just would.
I'm not saying like we have to. I'm actually glad

(51:55):
that I didn't hear from sharp calls that Wise guys
were coming in on the Bears at an excessive ray.
But I'm just saying we would play the Bears.

Speaker 2 (52:04):
No, And every Wise guy talked to it does like
that side. Like you know, this pro last night was
saying his biggest bet of the night was Bears at seven.
But he said, yeah, he says he loves it at seven,
but it's your exact viewpoint of like this is way
too big for a divisional matchup. But I pushed back
and I said, I just I can't trust Caleb Splits
on the road and home away. He's just been a
totally different quarterback on the road and versus at home.

(52:26):
And yeah, it's I'm happier avoid to check, because honestly,
I can't. I can't do another week with this this
Bears team. They've been good to us this season, so
I don't want Tom knock him too hard. Obviously we
just caught a bad one last week. But I could
I told you my hesitation he is I could easily
see Kevin O'Connell never calling off the dogs here just
because they blew a fourteen point league to this this team,

(52:48):
what two three weeks ago, this Bears team. So yeah,
that's my hesitation here is that if they want to
because they are they are the better team, the Vikings
really could open up and punish this team. But you're right,
normally divisional game seven plus seven, this is way too
many points for this Bears team. So it's it's a
tough one that we have to pass on chat. But
it's like, don't make me bet to Spars team once again.

Speaker 1 (53:12):
No, Look, I think we have five games that we
like even better, and preliminarily, I just want to be
clear you and I because like we miscommunicated last week
with the Panthers right now, Cleveland four and a half,
Jags three and a half, Pittsburgh five and a half,
Colts four and a half, Detroit two and a half,
green Bay two and a half. Like, of those six,

(53:37):
who is your first one out? It feels like it
comes down to the It feels like it comes down
to the Jags, right.

Speaker 2 (53:47):
Yeah, just be I get your hesitation with the Jags
now one. I really do just love the number. It
could be. I told you I'm having a tough time
chat with this Pittsburgh number. I'm not gonna lie. I'm
having a real tough time with Pittsburgh. So I let
you take the Jags out. If you want to dig
your heels on Pittsburgh, I'm happy with that.

Speaker 1 (54:05):
Well, let's talk. We can dig like it just feels
like we're We'll talk.

Speaker 2 (54:11):
Then after a couple of drinks, we'll figure this out.

Speaker 1 (54:12):
With the fall, I feel like with the Steelers were
making the same We'll ask the group what should be
the last one in? But I do feel like we're
making the same mistake we always make with the Steelers
as trying to find a reason not to play Tomlin
as a big road dog in again that we think
is going to be low scoring and they'll play conservative
against an offense that likes to run the ball in
the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (54:31):
So I mean, you can't lie that. Your spice senses
have to be going off and being like, what the
fuck is this number?

Speaker 1 (54:36):
They go off every single week with the Steelers. Now
it doesn't none of it makes any sense. Yeah, it
goes off every week with the Steelers and the Chiefs.
It just does. Like the ways in which they are
covering or not covering based on the trends. The Chiefs
over as a favorite of three and the Steelers as
an underdog. We say it happens six out of ten times,

(54:58):
but now it's happened ten out of ten times, right,
so it has to regress. I think that's what we're saying.
And that's what we're nervous about. Simon. Can you name
the best ticketing and app in the United States?

Speaker 2 (55:12):
Game Time?

Speaker 1 (55:13):
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?
Time for our boosted underdog money line parlay with our
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three six five. Simon and I have a money line
underdog round Robin.

Speaker 4 (57:36):
There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay day.
There will come up payday Someday. Someday there will come
up Heayday. Halla lou Yo wanna pay day. Tire will
come up payday some day.

Speaker 1 (57:52):
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong
in any of these Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sprooks Steelers, Miami Dolphins.
Is there anybody I'm missing? Do you feel strongly about
putting someone else in.

Speaker 2 (58:07):
As an Eagles fan, I have a strong opinion, but no,
is it better?

Speaker 1 (58:10):
I'll let it roll, all right? What's your biggest bet?

Speaker 2 (58:15):
Colts definitely been hammering that, but again it's if you
can find the four and a half four that's really
the key for that bet. For me, green Bay, I
just can't stop bett at two minus two and a half.
And I know it's usually I don't want to take
this large position on a favor but I can't help,
but it just feels like it's such a good number
right now. And last one is just Detroit at two.

(58:35):
If you can get the two to me, that's a
big deal right now, this Lins game. I just me
and Chat have just seen so many games laying on
two too that I just I don't want to get
two and a half. I want to get to two,
so right now, Yeah, my two biggest bets are two favorites,
green Bay and Detroit. Wow.

Speaker 1 (58:51):
I know who says we can't adjust over it. You're
just betting numbers, guys, that's all we're doing.

Speaker 2 (59:00):
All hope is lost. All that's left is relief. Let's
play rolette.

Speaker 1 (59:08):
Scoot roulette. You won last week. I lost so Cleveland.
You had Minnesota. Remember, I wanted to remember. I got
to choose first. I chose Cleveland, and you were mad
at me, and it happened.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
That was just mine games, That was all.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
Sheesh.

Speaker 2 (59:31):
I guess I will dig in and just say I
just love green Bay. I'll take green Bay two and
a half.

Speaker 1 (59:38):
All right, I'm gonna then I'm gonna take Indy. I
was gonna go with Indya or Pittsburgh, but I'll take Indy.
Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
of Research, Evan Abrams. Final word talk to us, Evan
the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. So
let's start with the bye week.

Speaker 3 (59:59):
I'llbviously buys behind us, but that means this is going
to be the last week where teams are coming off
of a bye. Interesting enough, teams are coming off of
by facing a team who isn't just nine and thirteen
straight up this season one hundred dollars better down seven
hundred and thirteen dollars on the money line in this
spot be the second worst season for teams off of
bye over the last decade. Now this week, that's new
England Houston, Baltimore, and Washington. Obviously a few pretty big

(01:00:24):
favorites in there, so we will see if anyone crashes
and burns. Let's go to this Philly in Pittsburgh game. Now,
Simon was mentioning the George Pickens' information in terms of
him being out this week. In my article I wrote
on Action Network, which I write every week, I talked
about his impact on the game. So someone should go,
everyone should go check that out. But I want to

(01:00:45):
talk about a stat with the game and then something
off of it. So the Eagles obviously have the best
rush attack in the NFL. They're averaging one hundred and
ninety point six yards per game on the ground, best
mark in the league. Now, it's interesting enough, and I
looked this up because I was curious. Tomlin has done
a really good job against rush offenses one hundred and
fifty plus average. He's twenty three and sixteen against the
number one hundred and seventy plus, he's nine and four

(01:01:07):
one hundred and eighty plus, he's six and three. And
the other interesting point, so Steelers great record seventy six
percent win percentage entering this game. This is the most
points he has gotten with his starting quarterback with that
good of a record since two thousand and eight with
Big Ben, So obviously that Bett Pickens news is massive,
but it's interesting the number is that high, So I

(01:01:28):
understand you guys are kind of waffling there, all right.
I got two more quick ones here, so not too
many further trips in the NFL than Tampa to LA.
But in the past we've talked about travel as a
negative thing, which it is in certain spots.

Speaker 2 (01:01:41):
But this is just a for what it's worth.

Speaker 3 (01:01:43):
Since twenty sixteen, teams going est to a road game
in PST eighty four and sixty against the spread fifty
eight now including twenty one and fourteen against the number
the last two seasons. This week Green Bay and Tampa Bay,
so both teams you guys like, so it fit well.
And then I got one more for you. Now, everyone's

(01:02:05):
gonna keep going against Kansas City. They're gonna keep winning
and they're gonna keep not covering. But this is just
an interesting piece of information going into this matchup against Cleveland.
So if you like the Browns, here's some facts that
will probably help Cleveland's defense. Has the second highest pressure
percentage in the NFL. Mahomes has taken thirty five sacks
this season, eleven more than any other year of his career.

(01:02:27):
Between weeks one and fourteen, he's been sacked twenty three
times in his last six games. His career high for
a season before this year was just twenty eight in
an entire year. And we talk about the James part
of this, but the Chiefs only have ten takeaways as
a defense this year. That is far fewer than any
team who has ever started eleven and two. So Jamis

(01:02:49):
might give them an easy one, but it's not like
they've been taking it away from their opponents.

Speaker 1 (01:02:53):
So we'll see what happens this weekend. Evan, great stuff.
You've confirmed our biases, which is all I can ask.
And don't worry. The Chiefs have Steven Nelson to the rescue,
so their takeover, their turnovers are just about to skyrocket.
Their takeaways are gonna go nuts. As a reminder, the
Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
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(01:03:36):
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episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page
Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL week fifteen.

(01:03:57):
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