The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 16

The weather outside is frightful, but the bets are so delightful as Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk NFL Week 16. Together they discuss an underdog spot for Mike Tomlin, the Carolina Panthers in a foxhole, and yet another perplexing game for the New York Jets. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume  #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre my
BFF professional Better signmon Hunter l O Simon.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Chad, how are we doing well?

Speaker 1 (00:34):
It's going to be an interesting show because I know
where you and I are leaning, and I know some
stats from Evan Abrams, who continues to be asked to
sign jerseys by our fans at our live events. People
are going up to Evan asking him to sign their

(00:54):
NFL Legit regulation jerseys and put their favorite st in
sharpie on the jerseys. So Evan illuminating in his great
article that he posts on Wednesdays on Action network dot
com in the Action Network app download it illuminating the
upside down year it has been for betters like us Simon,

(01:17):
who historically have cashed in betting against the favorites, fading
the public betting home underdogs, of which we have plenty
to choose from. This week, some stats from Evan. Favorites
have gone seventy one percent straight up this year most
profitable season since two thousand and nine. It's the fourth

(01:38):
least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history. Might explain
some of our challenges. We like to fade the public.
Teams getting over sixty percent of the spread bets have
gone fifty seven percent against the spread this year. Again,
we like to fade the public. Home underdogs are forty

(02:01):
two percent against the spread, which would be the second
least profitable season since nineteen ninety. What do we do, Simon,
We bet home dogs and we fade the public. No
wonder we're having one in four weeks and just having
misery every single week, coming out on the edge on

(02:21):
these five games. We're picking road favorites. Last week when
seven and no straight up and are thirty four and
eight eighty one percent since Week nine. So there are
six home dogs this week, Simon, you and I are
curious about all of them, more than curious with a

(02:43):
couple of them. Today is our NFL Week sixteen Best
Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five
picks in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three sixty five, we'll
get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Timy John
big balls better than we We're going to discuss Simon's
biggest bets are boosted moneyline underdog parlay. You can gearon

(03:05):
fucking tea. It's going to be two home dogs and
we'll talk about the underdog round robin and so much more.
Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions seem to be made.
As our volume podcast, Boss Callen Coward likes to say,
there's a sea of money out there. There's a sea
of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast
presented by Bet three six five and now new Bet

(03:29):
three sixty five, customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up
using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet
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(03:50):
At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or a ten and older
in Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply.
It's Thursday. Wise. Guys have been blowing up Simon's phone.

(04:13):
He already teased on it before we came on air
what they think about some of the decisions we're making.
Lines have been moving since we've been talking, Simon. Let's
do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (04:31):
Hello, who's there?

Speaker 3 (04:32):
I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

Speaker 1 (04:36):
Somebody's said, maybe what you do man?

Speaker 2 (04:40):
Yeah? Off the top.

Speaker 3 (04:41):
People want to know if you're alright, Chad. I had
a couple of calls about Chad taking Buffalo minus fourteen.
They're just wondering if you're all right nicking that your
pick there with all these home dogs this week, so
pretty easy week, honestly, Chad. I think every probably talked
to you. The most part is on the home dogs.
A couple guys I've talked.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
To you, like the Eagles. It is really about the
number there.

Speaker 3 (05:01):
I know a couple of guys that took a position
on the Eagles when it was two and a half,
and then when I went back to three this week,
they took another position on it, which to me makes sense.
It makes me leave a little confidence because I thought
it was just gonna be I showed a pros versus Joe's,
but shaping up to be one that's not as heavily
professional on the Washington side, where the other dogs, like
these home dogs, won't need to talk about it. Basically,

(05:23):
the pros love every home dog this week. The only
one I think people are hesitant on is that Bear's
number because it has moved down, right.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think if it was.

Speaker 3 (05:30):
Still seven or at seven and a half, that would
just be in the same exact conversation we're having right now.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Let's dive into the favorites though.

Speaker 3 (05:38):
With the pros, I bet I don't know if we're
gonna talk about it today, but that Chiefs lines moved
like crazy, So that was the line.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
That we're definitely gonna talk about it today.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
Okay, I'll save it.

Speaker 3 (05:47):
Then that one that jumped out to me where it's
like the books have left themselves open so wide to
a middle here, so it's very telling that they're moving
it to where they've got they've moved it to now,
so that's a game we Yeah, we'll definitely need a
break down.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
A favorite that me and you kind of liked that.
I've talked a.

Speaker 3 (06:07):
Couple of pros on the other side, the Colts. I
mean again, it's not like we're madly in love with
it. It was just a favorite we flooded out there. We
kind of liked. Just about every probably talk to likes
the other side of that one. And again we started
out this week like in Miami, most pros I've talked
to like.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
The forty nine or so.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
Yep, it's funny on the same side as us, but
it feels like, for the most part, a lot of
the home dogs be like this week, it seems like
that's gonna be the professional side this week.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
Yeah, I'm not surprised by that at all. Like the
more I looked at the board and the more I
dug into this, and by the time we get to
Wednesday afternoon, uh, you know, opinions start to solidify a
little bit. You start to see some of the practice
reports and like, similar to what you the feedback you've gotten,
I started to walk away from the Dolphins. I was

(06:54):
not feeling confident about the Colts. We're going to talk
about the Bills game. I'm curious to know they feel
why they're against me.

Speaker 3 (07:03):
I guess they were just shocked that in a week
of like you just said, six or seven home dogs
that you went with, Yeah, one of the biggest favorites
on the board.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
You know that's fair.

Speaker 1 (07:12):
That's also part of the challenge of doing the show
on Tuesday, right, is like you can only do so
much on Mondays when you're researching this stuff, and you
start to get more intel on Tuesday and more intel
on Wednesday.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
I told them, I think you just had PTSD. You're
a man that you're just every week, like we talk it,
we've been taking these dogs and we're just getting shit
kicked out of us, and the only one cover for
us are our favorite, Like betting favorites have just been
good for us for these lat school weeks. So that
was my excuse for you to these people. I was
just like, list can's been through the fucking Ringer man,
He's just he knows you should take Jets three and

(07:45):
a half, but in his mind he's just like fuck them.
I'm just going with the Bills and I won't be
mad at myself if they don't cover.

Speaker 2 (07:51):
So that was my view of it.

Speaker 1 (07:52):
Well, look, you're not wrong, and we're going to get
to the Jets three and a half because we did
come back around on that. We're going to get to that.
Soonest first, let's talk about Kansas City, which is now
with three and a half. Yeah, and I'm putting this
in here. I don't think we're going to play Houston
at three and a half or Kansas City at three
and a half in the contest. Mainly I want to reiterate,

(08:14):
and we bet Kansas City on Sunday night Monday morning
at plus two and a half. And then yesterday, because
you are my bff and you're good to me, you
sent me a text to let me know that the
Texans had moved to three and a half at bet
three sixty five. Because I told you in the shower
on Tuesday morning, I was thinking this thing, which is

(08:35):
now at two and a half, it's going to get
to three and if it gets at three and a half,
we're going to have to middle this. It was three
and a half. I'm assuming you've bet the Texans at
three and a half. I've bet the Texans at three
and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
Yeah, and the most shocking part is we did our
show Tuesday and Mahomes practiced and there was a couple
of books that moved them back up to plus two
and a half the Chiefs, And I was like, what
do they know that I'm missing? Maybe you look gingerly
in practice, maybe it wasn't moving right, and they were like, oh,
we'll get ahead of it. And then yeah, I went
to bed and woke up to a frantic call in

(09:12):
the middle of the night and it was like just
basically that number was moving the other way and the
Chiefs were back now to one, and then sure enough,
you know, eighty or nine, am I feel like it
was back up. On Wednesday it was back up to
three for the Chiefs, and then by the time you know,
we texted later in that day, it was up to
three and a half of just about every book. So yeah, honestly,
we talked about this. It's like, what's it above three?

(09:34):
Especially with this Chiefs team. I want to be on
the other side of it. So I was already gonna
try to play the middle when I was at three happy,
I was patient and weighted.

Speaker 2 (09:42):
Let it get to three and a half.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
And now it's I mean, for anyone that bet the
two and a half on the Chiefs, you have to
try to play the middle here. You can't just roll
this value like this is such a Chiefs line where
timetime a, we'veeen land on three. Very telling by the
sports books because of how much early money they got
on the Chiefs that they even put this at three
and a half because they they knew if they put
this at three and a half, they're just gonna get

(10:04):
hammered by not just professionals but the public.

Speaker 2 (10:06):
Right. I think everyone's kind of been on.

Speaker 3 (10:08):
The the gig of this Chiefs team just doesn't blow
the teams now, obviously we saw what happened last week,
but yeah, it's it's just interesting that they've moved this
to three and a half and now it's just sat
there for coming up on twelve thirteen hours here. So
the books are telling you what they need right now.
They need Houston money clearly.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Yeah, I think it's gonna get down to three. It's
already juiced in that direction. I think if you want
to get to three and a half and you're listening live,
go get it because it's not gonna last long. I
hope it's there when listeners are tuning in later today
after the show has been posted.

Speaker 2 (10:44):
See I told you that.

Speaker 3 (10:45):
I talked to sportsbook guys and they were just like,
this is on Tuesday again. They're like, every teaser, every
single teaser on Saturday is Chiefs up to eight and
a half and the Ravens down too point five, Like
they just got slammed with that. So that to me
is just they already know they're kind of screw because
this is a standalone game on a Saturday, But the

(11:05):
fact that they're just leaving this at three and a half, like,
like you just said, it could go down to three
by kick, but they're in such a bad position right now.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
Might you might be able to still get it come Saturday.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
I think it's not a bad spot for the Texans
if you think about it. At three and a half.
Their defense have been playing better, Their pass rush is
one of the best in the NFL, if not the
best in the NFL. Mahomes is hobbled, and we really
don't know what their offensive line can do. Last week

(11:35):
they were playing Joe Tooney at left tackle. Will he
do it again? Will he perform?

Speaker 2 (11:40):
Well? He looked great, Honestly for a guy that never
played it before. He look really good.

Speaker 1 (11:45):
Freaking baller, right, Yeah, And you also have to wonder,
like the Texans. You know, rush game has been so
inconsistent every week with Joe Mixon. He's either getting one
hundred yards or he's less than fifty yards. Last week
he was less than fifty yards, right, twenty three yards?
Will they decide to just unlease CJ. Stroud, let them
throw against a depleted secondary, like, we don't know? So

(12:08):
it could be a good spot for the Texans. But
I'm very happy to let my middle just sort of
linger and stew and simmer. It's so rare you get
these opportunities. Yeah, Yes, Pittsburgh get Baltimore. So this game
was at six and a half. We liked it at

(12:30):
six and a half, it moved down to six. Got
word yesterday that George Pickens on Wednesday did not practice. TJ.
Watt did practice. This line is now back at six
and a half. I would still take the Steelers. I'd
probably still be comfortable with them in the contest, mainly

(12:50):
because of the historical nature of this series, and it's
sort of a Tomlin spot. It's a fade Harbass spot
as a relatively big favorite, as a dog of three
or more versus the Ravens. Tomlin is six and oh
thirteen and two and two against the spread overall versus Harbaugh.

(13:13):
You know, stats galore the series overall the last twenty years.
The underdog is twenty three, four and three since twenty fifteen, sixteen,
two and one. Everything says it. And like, unlike the
other trends where we, you know, sort of got caught
last week with the Steelers and the Browns or the
Steelers and the fading the Chiefs, this one doesn't worry

(13:36):
me as much. I don't know about.

Speaker 3 (13:37):
You, no, and it's it's it's my favorite bet every
year whenever the Ravens and Pittsburgh play, like we talked about,
whoever is the dog? I put zero effort and research
into the number. I simply log on, go to Evans page,
look at the trends. It's like this is one of
the few games where you can just simply play the
trends here and it's it's all about who's the dog.

(13:58):
The bigger the number, the better. It's like you talked about,
it gets even better the higher the number gets when
these two teams match up. So, yeah, Lamar having an
MVP season, it feels like the only team she struggle
against her Pittsburgh and the Eagles this season, right, and
this is another bad matchup for him with this Pittsburgh
team that just they just know how to plan and

(14:18):
they know to make them un corporate, they how to
make them flustered. In Yeah, Chad, we might eventually get
burned by it, but we're up.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
I think we're like Evans.

Speaker 3 (14:26):
Five and oh betting against this exact spot, and like
we always joke about that, are we overthinking?

Speaker 2 (14:30):
This is just too easy?

Speaker 3 (14:32):
And we always eventually put it in the contest because
we eventually do get there. So it is another number
where it's like, yes, we know Lamar's I can go
zero to ten in his career against this Pittsburgh team,
But if me and Chack can go eight and two
betting this exact spot over the lifetime of this for
the next couple of years, that's huge for us, Like
that's the dream scenario. So yeah, we're sitting our five

(14:53):
and oh betting this exact spot nothing's changed for me.
It's all about playing the number had this way down
like I have this close to the four and a half.
That's the only fear. It's the same thing as the
Eagles last week, where I might be overrating this Pittsburgh
team too much and maybe i'ven't adjusted enough.

Speaker 2 (15:07):
On the pickings injury.

Speaker 3 (15:08):
But at six and a half, I feel like that
insurance is already built in. Like we talked about last week,
that that game would have been totally different if there
wasn't a couple of little turnovers here and there and
Tomlin played a little more aggressive. I can't see him
being reluctant and hesitant back to back week with Tomlin
like he knows he screwed.

Speaker 2 (15:25):
Up last week.

Speaker 3 (15:25):
So yeah, give me a Pittsburgh team on a short week,
pissed off and against a Raves team that just absolutely
blew out and dominated a Giants team that's feeling themselves.
So yeah, we love the trends, we love the spots.
Give me Pittsburgh plus six and a half.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
I love your confidence. I was afraid that you were
going to come in and tell me you're a little
bit anxious about playing the Steelers because of us getting
sort of snake bit last week playing the Steelers trend
and fading the Chiefs, you know, as more than three
point favorite trend. So I'm so thrilled to hear because
I still love the Steelers here.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
Yes, this is great. It's all about the number.

Speaker 1 (16:03):
I would like to know. We should check this. We've
been doing this show.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
Is this our sixth season?

Speaker 1 (16:09):
Is this our sixth season doing it together? But is
it our fifth year with the contest or is it
our sixth year with a contest?

Speaker 2 (16:17):
Can the contest?

Speaker 1 (16:18):
We'll have to figure that out. I wonder how many
times we put the Steelers as dogs against the Ravens
in the contest, and if we've been six and oher
with that play, if we're running, you know, because you
know God will and Simon, God will, and we get
four more years of the show and we can have
a decade's worth of data. I'm playing the Steelers as

(16:41):
the dogs in the contest against the Ravens. Guess what
you mentioned The Jets took me a minute, but maybe
on Tuesday I would have made this my exact decision.
The good news is it's lingering out there and now
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(17:05):
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(17:29):
us to bet the New York Jets as three three
and a half point underdogs at home against the Los
Angeles Rams. We like this allowed on Tuesday when it
was three and a half, we both bet it there.
It has moved to three. I'll tell you it looks
like it's moving to two and a half. But I

(17:51):
don't know about you, Simon. I started to feel much
better about this over the past forty eight hours.

Speaker 3 (17:56):
Yeah, and mine's like the old school, the old school
white reason for me liking this again, the numbers back
it up. I mean, Rogers obviously has been playing much
better these last several weeks. But the biggest thing I
like about this was it felt like a trap spot
right for the public coming on the Rams, and then
you factor in the weather like it's gonna be what
mid twenties in this game comes Sunday and this is

(18:17):
we're talking about Stafford here, like people forget because he's
been out in LA. We auto faded Stafford just about
every time he left that giant that Lions building. Right
anytime he went outdoors, we saw Stafford would always struggle. Again,
He's a kid that played in college ball, played down
in Georgia. He's just never been a cold weather quarterback.
And I need to go through the trends with Evan

(18:38):
here with him and outdoor games, but it feels like
this is kind of a good spot to fade him
and this Los Angeles offense, especially like we.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
Talked about, they're just the public darling right now.

Speaker 3 (18:48):
So honestly shock looking the app that there is even
that amount of money coming in on the Jets, But
I think it's what we talked about every week. These
professionals are just gonna keep hitting the side, whether it
was a good number or a bad number.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
They believe in this team. They're models believing this team.
And yeah, three and a.

Speaker 3 (19:04):
Half contest wise, shot, I absolutely love it. Two and
a half will truly take some big balls to put
it in there, because obviously me and you have hammered
this at three and a half would it be shocked
if this game lands on three. If the Jets somehow
find a way to lose this game by fool at
the end, would not be shocked.

Speaker 2 (19:21):
But the number, everything about.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
This just feels like a Jets outright win, upset shocked
the world type of game.

Speaker 1 (19:28):
Yeah. Look, we faded the Rams for two reasons here
and we talked about this on Tuesday. Two very sexy,
big time wins, and this team now finds itself in
first place in the NFC West. Right, they are streaking,
as they tend to do the last couple of years,
like they find their footing in the second half of

(19:49):
the year. It's why we generally hate betting against Matthew Stafford.
But they have not been the same team on the
road that they've been at home this year. And like
you just said, the Jets have been okay the past
couple of weeks. Like they lost a game they should
have won and covered against the Dolphins, they covered a

(20:14):
game they shouldn't have. In both cases they were undone.
This is the scary part. They're very unqualified, ill equipped
head coach who knows less about clock management than just
about anybody watching red zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's
actually astonishing how bad he is at it. Like these

(20:35):
past two weeks, the spread and the jet success has
been entirely determined by his horrible, inane, stupid clock management.
So we get screwed in this game. This is why,
and it's why actually I didn't make it a massive
bet this week is because I worry a little bit

(20:55):
about Jeff Olbrook just not understanding the basic constructive management.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
And then this amazing stature from Evan Stafford. Four and
seven straight up outdoors thirty five degrees or less one
in three under thirty degrees.

Speaker 2 (21:10):
So, I mean, I knew there was something back there.

Speaker 3 (21:12):
It was like we used to same kind of treat
when we get the golf, but not extreme that. I
just remember when every time Stafford went outdoors, he always
struggled in the cold weather. And uh, that could be
partially why the summer's moved so much check because people
are just it's again it's the old old man take
where it's like you got the weather and you have
the public perception. They usually love to hammer these type
of spots.

Speaker 2 (21:33):
So yeah, if if you're.

Speaker 3 (21:34):
Lucky enough to still find a three to three and
a half out there, I would definitely grab it out
before this does go down to two and a half.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
I do worry a little bit that Rogers has looked
so good because he's old and he's been in Florida,
and everybody knows that when you're old and you're in
Florida during the winter, you're going to be more spry.
So does he look better? Does he look the same?
Does he look worse when he's playing at home in
cold weather. Here's a good stat last twenty years, a
team that has a winning percentercentage of fifty to sixty

(22:01):
percent fifty to fifty nine percent. So you know, teams
that like are good ish might be fighting for a
playoff spot, but they're not so good that they can
be dominant. And we're at the end of the season,
the last three weeks of the season facing a team
below five hundred allah. The Rams and the Jets in
this current matchup thirty eight percent against the spread the

(22:23):
past twenty years and since twenty twenty two just nine
to eighteen and one. So I do like that we
have the Jets in a good spot here. It's a
home dog. Will our fidelity to the number in the
spot be betrayed by the wackiness of this season. That
is our question, Simon. We just don't know, but we're

(22:46):
willing to dig in and play it. Dear listeners. It
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Speaker 2 (23:23):
Pretty easy, chat, It's the gift that last.

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dot com slash favorites. All right, you mentioned Washington three

(23:46):
and a half, you know at the Eagle or hosting
the Eagles right now. Another home dog alert for us
I'm with the wise guys on this, like we played it,
this was Simon says, I believe. But the more like
I think about it, the more anxious it makes me,
just because I love this Eagles defense so much. Like

(24:07):
I haven't bought out of it. I'm on the commanders
at three and a half, but it does it does
make me a little anxious.

Speaker 3 (24:18):
Yeah, I mean it's fair. The last time they played
the Egles beat them up. They beat him like twenty
seven eighteen or twenty six to eighteen. So I get
your hesitation, and.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
My view of it is just how do that Egles
not have.

Speaker 3 (24:31):
A letdown after that Pittsburgh game. I mean they're just
feeling themselves so much. I mean, she is just christ
yell and hurts press conference. You would think this dude
is averaging thre hundred yards per game, passing in three touchdowns,
like he came in their flection so hard for a
game that was Yeah, it's very good, but it's like
this is what we expect.

Speaker 2 (24:49):
Out of you, So yeah, not a good look. Budget
It hurts that that was not good.

Speaker 1 (24:54):
Uh yeah, this it really wasn't and it was kind
of it was to me, it was a little bit
out of character for a guy who like generally is
pretty quiet, like self confident obviously, but just hasn't been
in the place where he likes to sort of go
after the media, blame the media, us against the media,

(25:15):
you know, sort of that that Aaron Rodgers esque approach.

Speaker 3 (25:23):
Yeah, and clearly it got to him though, where it's like, yeah,
we talked about this though. I told you it's he
gets more hate than most other quarterbacks, and it is
because of the weapons he has around him, right. People
just see the talent of the offensive line, the wide
receivers and obviously the running back, and they're just like,
this team should be so much better than the two seed.

(25:44):
They haven't lost in you know, since September. It's just
I think that's what's probably annoying the shit hapen where
it's like, man, if you know sak one didn't have
that bad drop against Atlanta, they they're.

Speaker 2 (25:55):
Probably the one seed right now.

Speaker 3 (25:56):
I mean, they are the one seed right now, So
you know, I get where he's coming from.

Speaker 2 (26:00):
But I just thought it was a weird.

Speaker 3 (26:02):
Way to start that press conference where it was just
just not like you just said, I the character for
Jalen hurts. But yeah, Chad, this matchup for me, it
really is just about this number and this this type
of matchup these two teams play. Right, We've seen it
this season that obviously Washington. Every game Washington plays is
just a bizarre game. Either they're rolling like absolutely dominating

(26:25):
teams or it's going to come down to the final seconds,
last possession. And you know, as much credit as I
want to give to their defense, because that's probably been
the most shocking part about Washington this season is how
good their defense is played. Where you know, me and
you joked about they were getting rid of basically all
their best d linemen and still have found a way
to put it together. But you know, again, like your hesitation,

(26:47):
I totally understand it because you know, they had a
stretch there where they lost to Pittsburgh, they lost to
the Eagles, they lost to Dallas. Now they have one
too straight, right, They won against Tennessee, then had their
bi week when they beat New Orleans. So we've seen
it that they've beat up on these bad teams. But
you know, I just view this game as then be
able to play this one close.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
Jet.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
It's like a type of game that just because the
divisional game here late in December, both fighting for playoff
spots in the sense that you know, Eagles still fighting
for the one seed, Washington still fighting to be a
wildcard team. It just feels the game that's gonna be
really close and other than come down to three. Now,
I get where you're at your hesitation. I had a
lesitation too, because I found out so many professionals wrong

(27:27):
on the other side.

Speaker 2 (27:28):
So yeah, if there's other dogs.

Speaker 3 (27:30):
You rather put in there this week home dogs, I'd
be fine with it. It was just really about me trying
to get ahead of it the market, just because the
number had moved so much. I really did think it
was gonna be three come today's show, and clear I
was wrong. Should have went with the Jets or the Chiefs,
as my Simon says, because that was definitely getting ahead
of the line movement in those games.

Speaker 1 (27:47):
Yeah, I didn't see you as being dug in on
this as a contest play. To me, it was only
about the Simon says, and getting the three and a
half and on Tuesday like it was trending in that direction.
It did get down to three, just came back up
to three and a half, and I think The difference
here about the letdown is we've said this all season.

(28:09):
Physical travels right, and Jalen Hurts can be up and
down and all those kinds of things. But like their
defensive line is still going to be dominant and their
defensive backfield is still continuing to get better. I don't
even think they've reached their peak yet. They're just so
freaking good.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
You were at the game of this when the Eagles
played Commanders.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
I was, but my tickets through game time, which will
get you.

Speaker 3 (28:35):
Another reason I love Washington is the Eagles. I mean
people think they blow them out. They scored twenty in
the fourth, like this was a really close game, and
then it kind of got away from Washington the very end.
That's another reason why I like Washington, where it's like
it feels like they know and to match up with
this Eagles team. But like the Eagles have done all season,
they just wear you out with sake.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
They wear you out. They look at that ten minute
drive against the Steelers was really so dominant you couldn't
turn away. It was a constant car crash like it broke.
One of the most unbreakable teams in football, that's the
Steelers like you expect them to get the stop. The
Commanders have not been very good in the fourth quarter

(29:13):
this year. We saw it against the Saints just this
past weekend. But you know from Evans article, three and
eleven against the spread in the fourth quarter this year,
that's tied for worst in the NFL. So I do worry.
We're going to get to a place where it's late
in the season, rookie quarterback, physical game. The Eagles are

(29:34):
going to eagle you know what I mean?

Speaker 2 (29:36):
It's fair.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
Arizona at Carolina. We lean Carolina when it was four,
Now it's four.

Speaker 2 (29:45):
And a half, it's get to five.

Speaker 1 (29:47):
I don't get it, like the Cars are one of
those teams I just mentioned it with the Rams where
they're good ish, they've sown promise, but they're not dominant.
They're not the Eagles, they're not the Lions. They're not
even that second Tiers sort of packers team. They are
a good teams still figuring it out with an okay

(30:08):
defense that is getting a little bit better, and an
inconsistent quarterback. These are the teams you fade in December.
They're playing losing teams like nine, eighteen and one against
the spread. Since twenty twenty two in this spot, and
Kyler like has all the Cliff Kingsbury in him when
it comes to fading this guy as the season goes on,

(30:33):
twenty six and fourteen against the spread September, October seventeen,
twenty one and two in November or later when he
is over five hundred, and that game is played in
November or later, he's seven to fourteen against the spread.
I'm wondering if this is our foxhole because we still

(30:55):
like the Panthers, I think, and this line keeps moving
against us. I don't know if it goes in the contest,
but I don't know if there's another game where we
so definitively have been on the other side, I.

Speaker 2 (31:06):
Could get in the content.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
I mean, I've been betting it pretty heavy this week,
and it was really all about the number. On what
you just said about Kyler, I just think that not
that he's a tad overrated, but he's just been the
type of guy that sucks people in after a good
week and then kind of has a letdown game the
following week, especially in this exact scenario where he's playing
not a not a good team on the road as
a big favorite, and I mean you joke about it,

(31:27):
like when Kyler is a big dog on the road,
we tend to back them. Like historically he's been really
good as a dog on the road, but as a favorite,
especially when it's above three, he tends to struggle. And
you know this season, you know we've seen him have
games like even that Minnesota game. They almost stole that game,
Like he was on the road, could have stole that game,
no doubt. They all played Minnesota, but that was another game.

(31:49):
I felt like it was more about Minnesota than it
was about Arizona.

Speaker 2 (31:52):
And it feels the same spot here.

Speaker 3 (31:54):
It's like, all right, they just had this incredible, big
win against a very bad team. Now they're playing another
bad team on the road. The public is coming in heavy,
bending them up, even if some professionals are betting this
one up. And it's at the point now where especially
that's about four and a half, it's like, how do
we not get this one? It just feels like way
too much disrespect this Carolina team. But my only fear

(32:16):
is I'm blind to my love for this Panthers team,
Like it's still a cheme that I could be overrating
as much I want to say that this game is
gonna be another cold weather game.

Speaker 2 (32:26):
I don't know how bright Young.

Speaker 3 (32:27):
Is going to do in the cold weather either, like
this is not a guy who's played in the Big
tenor like Dad, he's an Alabama quarterback that basically his
whole career has pretty much been the warmth. And I
hate bring it up, but it's a real thing. These
quarterbacks with small hands in this cold weather that is tough,
Like your grip on the ball is different when it
is cold like this. So a lot to think about here.

(32:49):
I got a game I'm not going to force us into,
but just don't be shocked if for this is one
of our five comes Sunday, because it's like I could
easily see myself, especially hitting the books tonight and tomorrow
getting talked into it because I just know every problem
go to run into for the most part, is gonna
be on this Panthers side. It just feels like this
is way too inflicative, but number way too much respect
this Panthers team, I mean this Cardinals team, and too

(33:09):
much disrespect to a Carolina team that was due for
a bad game.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
Right. We talked about that last week. It was gonna
go the other.

Speaker 3 (33:15):
Way eventually, right, They had been playing so well for
so many weeks in a row for such a young,
inexperienced team. At the end of the day, though, they
still were competitive in that game against Dallas, but it
really felt too Bryce Young, right, like, when that game
was close, kept turning the bull over, kept getting short fields.
Same thing here, like, if we have a bad Bryce
Young game, me and Chad will know right away that

(33:37):
we're dead because this Panthers defense is just atrocious. So, yeah,
this really is a bet on. Do we think Bryce
Young's gonna show up for us on this spot?

Speaker 1 (33:44):
All right? So this is gonna be our foxhole because
I don't disagree with you, but we're definitely on the
opposite side of the wise guys here.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy.

Speaker 2 (33:54):
I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (33:57):
The one thing I will say to counter what you're
saying about Bryce Young, the Cardinals don't have any pass
rushers as good as Michaeh Parsons. And you know, we're
going to talk about Dallas in a little bit, but
he has been dominant and that was just the biggest
factor in that game. Every time Red Zone flipped to it,
Micah Parsons was sacking Bryce Young or forcing a fumble

(34:20):
of Bryce Young. So that was a big deal. I
knew you were leaning Panthers because the last few weeks
you have loved the Jags, and we have both loved
the Panthers. And I slacked you this morning and said,
what do we think of these games for our money
line underdog round robin? And you wanted me to take

(34:43):
out the Jags and put in the Panthers. And I'm like, huh,
that's interesting. So I knew. I knew there was going
to be a lean here today because if you're taking
out the Jags for the Panthers, you're falling madly, deeply
in love.

Speaker 3 (35:00):
It's also about the value too, Like Panthers are plus
one ninety plus one eighty.

Speaker 2 (35:04):
I think the Jags are like minus one h two.

Speaker 1 (35:06):
So you love the Panthers. I do do we want
to spend any time on Tennessee, Indie. I don't think
we're going to put them in the contest. I just
thought it was interesting. You know, Mason Rudolph is now
officially the quarterback we didn't know that on Tuesday. And
I don't want to lay money on Anthony Richardson as

(35:26):
a favorite, and I don't really have faith. I don't
think Mason Rudolph is even worth the point that the
line moved. He's not that good either, So I'm not
feeling strongly about this game.

Speaker 2 (35:39):
That's fair.

Speaker 3 (35:41):
It fills the game that we're going to kick ourselves
if the Cults are up fourteen head end of the fourth,
and it's like, man, how have we missed all these
weeks of just fading this Tennessee team because they have
just been a ferocious.

Speaker 1 (35:52):
Well look, that's also the question. So Tennessee this year
is two and twelve against the spread. Yeah, like one
of the worst team against the spread in NFL history,
the worst mark since through fourteen games since the twenty
sixteen Browns. But Anthony Richardson is on pace to have

(36:14):
such a bad year of completing passes that his only
comps in terms of lowest completion percentage for the past
quarter century Tim Tebow and Achille Smith.

Speaker 2 (36:27):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (36:30):
I'm old enough to have been a professional in the
year nineteen ninety nine two thousand, so I remember the
Achille Smith year. I remember Tim Tebow very specifically when
I was running ESPN, the magazine we put him on
the cover. Caused a lot of consternation, so we made

(36:53):
him look like he was praying. People thought it was
a political statement.

Speaker 2 (36:57):
I missed.

Speaker 1 (36:58):
Yeah, but you were like times you were like ten
years old.

Speaker 2 (37:03):
Not even how ung go do you think Tibo played?

Speaker 1 (37:06):
I was no, but for a Key Smith twenty five
years ago. This is like how bad Anthony Richardson has been.
He has taken some severe steps back since the benching,
and we thought he was getting better. So just a
whole lot of we have so many ugly home underdogs
we can ruin our weekend with. Do we really want
to ruin it with Anthony and Richardson?

Speaker 2 (37:28):
No, it's fair. I just I'm honestly.

Speaker 3 (37:30):
I told you I was more shocked about the love
from the professionals putting heavy money on his Tennessee side,
Like I'm not talking a little money, Like I know
guys who are putting decent money into the spot. And
it's what I think you just talked about. Though maybe
it's just the doubt of Anthony Richardson and the lift
they think Mason Rudolph somehow was going to bring to
this Tennessee team because I do think one of their

(37:50):
covers the season was by Mason Rudolph when he did
step in.

Speaker 1 (37:53):
So oh, look, he's a better quarterback than Will Levis
and he made ready for the Steelers last year. But
he also had the Steelers defense, and if you remember
last year, they were winning games because of turnovers by TJ.
Watt that he was forcing. Not because Mason Rudolph was
any kind of hero.

Speaker 3 (38:09):
No, he'll forever be only known just for getting hitting
the head by Miles Garrett with his helmet.

Speaker 1 (38:14):
That's right. Also, simpler times Detroit minus six and a
half at Chicago. So we've been talking about cold weather.
We've been talking about quarterbacks in Chicago. In Chicago, it's
going to be low thirties. The warmest it'll be is
around kickoff at noon on Sunday in Chicago about thirty one.
It's never going to be above freezing. This is not
a Jared Goff spot. So I understand why the wise

(38:37):
guys have come in on the Bears at seven and
a half and seven. However, I don't think it's going
to matter for Jared Goff. We're not going to need
him to do much. For the record, He's eighteen and
eight against the spread off a loss. He's seven and
two in the division off of a loss against the spread.

(38:58):
This Bears rush defense is so bad. We saw it
again last week against the Vikings. Even without David Montgomery,
Jamia Gibbs may get two hundred yards. I'm not even exaggerating.
Like I watched so many of these Bears games. They
cannot stop anybody on the run in the running game, like,
and the Bears are so ill prepared. Since eber Flus

(39:19):
was fired, They've given up thirty plus points in both
of their games. In the first half of the past
three games, they've gained a total of one hundred and
sixty three yards. That's it. Like, I know people are
betting the number. I hate the Bears here, hate them.

(39:43):
I'd much rather bet the Lions.

Speaker 2 (39:45):
I know.

Speaker 3 (39:46):
It sucks so because I wanted to find a way
to take this Bearer's team, especially you know, the slander
for Caleb Williams this week, it's just an.

Speaker 2 (39:55):
All time high.

Speaker 3 (39:56):
I mean, I have seen that video of him on
that bench, you know, rolling around in agony like a
toddler about twenty times and it's like, God, damn, people,
let the kid grow. He's just a kid, Like he's
just going through it. It's someone that you know, not
that he's a silver screw up his ass his whole life,
but he's been a winner his whole life. And you know,
last year, yeah, it was hard to lose in the

(40:19):
Pac twelve. But it's like, I think he's quickly realizing
like this is a whole different world and it doesn't end.
Like in his mind, he's like, man, I should be
getting ready for the offseason. No, you still got three
more weeks of just playing against the toughest division of football.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
So it's brutal for Caleb.

Speaker 3 (40:34):
And you know, like we talked about, the coaching has
just been so disappointed for the Bears everything offensively, defensively
since the.

Speaker 2 (40:41):
Fire, and they've just been terrible. And you're right, I'm
probably overthinking it.

Speaker 3 (40:45):
I should just take the value here. I just can't
believe the books are giving us six and a half
another game. That's like, this is in every single teaser.

Speaker 2 (40:53):
Even me, who knows.

Speaker 3 (40:54):
It's a sucker bet, has put the lines in every
single teaser.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
It's too easy, that's so funny.

Speaker 3 (41:00):
Gonna lose, Like, there's in what world do they lose
this game? So of course somehow Chicago Bears are going
to find a way to upset this game.

Speaker 2 (41:06):
That's just how usually. But this year has been wonky.
It's been great for the public.

Speaker 3 (41:10):
So yeah, if you're someone like me, a sucker betting
this Detroit team and a teaser, hopefully that that trend continues.
So I'm with you, chat It's like if the Bears
seven and a half, maybe, mean you would have it
a serious conversation here, it's not.

Speaker 2 (41:21):
It's six and a half. I'll take the train that
number and I'll throw them in a teaser.

Speaker 1 (41:26):
I don't know if this gets contest play. I mean,
we're gonna have a favorite in the contest.

Speaker 2 (41:30):
We got to find a favorite so it could it
could find its way in.

Speaker 1 (41:33):
It's well, the favorite is going to be Detroit or Buffalo.

Speaker 3 (41:37):
All right, right, I forgot our Buffalo love. It just
cracks me up. Minus fourteen rock me away.

Speaker 1 (41:45):
Like we'll get to it in a minute, but walk
me away from it, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (41:49):
I can't, I really can't. I mean that's that's the
scary part.

Speaker 3 (41:54):
Like when it was getting up to fourteen and a
half this Buffalo game, I was like, Okay, at least
a professional money's coming on the same side of us.
Now it is back down to fourteen, which is like
not going to scare me off. But I do think
it's interesting that guys are taking position on this New
England team where like, again my model thinks is a
good spot.

Speaker 2 (42:11):
Do the Bills overlooked him and have a letdown game?
I don't know. It feels like they're coming home.

Speaker 3 (42:16):
And Josh Allen's playing for MVP and like this is
the type of game he just beats the shit out
of this bad New England team. The only hesitation here
is do we get back door because the Bills have
so many injuries to that defense and they're really playing,
you know, with guys off the streets at this point,
Like I know, they only have three or four guys
they've sent the ir but they just have guys banged
up that might miss this game. That could be a

(42:36):
big deal for them. So that's the only hesitation for you.

Speaker 1 (42:38):
Well, hold on, let me set it up so Gifford
can throw up his graphics and we're going to go
a little bit out of order here because we've transitioned
into Buffalo. I want to get to Seattle and Minnesota.
We'll do that after this one. But New England Buffalo
was my exec decision. I feel like if it wasn't
the Jets, we would want to double up and make

(42:58):
this big balls too. I agree with you. The Bill
secondary is banged up, and we know Drake May likes
to make things interesting in the second half. And I
think we're both Drake may fans, like we've seen a
lot of moxy out of the guy. He makes good throws,
he's not afraid to throw into coverage, he throws with accuracy,
he runs well like he's got nothing on that team.

(43:23):
He has zero help and he has no help from
the coaches either. And like this week Gerrod Mayo throwing
Alex van Pelt under the bus about his play calling. Look,
maybe I'm overthinking that part of it, but I do
wonder is this, all of a sudden, a radically different

(43:47):
game from a play calling point of view because of
the sort of overt throwing under the bus by Gerald
Mayo of Alex Bent van Pelt. That's to me, that's
one part of it. I'd like your reaction to that,
if I'm overthinking that part.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
Yeah again, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (44:08):
I don't think there's a move to be made with
them at this point. That's that's the thing where it's like,
you know, as much praise as we're giving to Drake May,
I'm gonna go through it right here. He is throwing
an interception every game since November three.

Speaker 1 (44:27):
Yeah. Yeah, So he's still a rookie quarterback playing against
a terrible offensive line with no discernible players, no discernible
talent on the edges, at receiver, at running back, Like
he's getting no help here.

Speaker 3 (44:42):
No, And it's he's getting no help. But they're kind
of letting him just go through all of that right now.
Right They're not like pulling back the rains. They're still
letting them throw the ball downfield in basically, every time
they play a good team, they.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
Just get absolutely rolled. This this new England team.

Speaker 3 (44:59):
So like that again, And there's another reason why I'm
okay with you bet this number, because you've just seen
this season that you know, when they play against some
bad teams, they can stay in it, they can keep
the games close, but once they face a good, complete team, they.

Speaker 2 (45:11):
Seem to get rolled. And we know that we have major.

Speaker 3 (45:13):
Questions about the defense, but you have to think Sean
McDermott going against a rookie QB, he's gonna be able
to throw some crazy exotic looks at him.

Speaker 2 (45:20):
That's going to kind of have his head on a squivel.
So again, Chad, I was.

Speaker 3 (45:23):
Trying to find a reason to get us off of
this one, just because, like, it's rare that guys call
up and talk about your bets. To me, it was
just funny how many guys called up are just like
your buddy, Chad all Right giving out a minus fourteen
favorite is his favorite bet.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
I was like, I think he's just going through it.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
We've done this before, we did this with alliance we have.

Speaker 3 (45:42):
But this is again, this is a different scenario that
was like peak lines Juggernaut.

Speaker 2 (45:48):
This is not peak Bills, Like this is the best
team that's a little banged up.

Speaker 1 (45:51):
Yeah, but how is this not peak performance for the Bills.
Look at what they did they you know, against You.

Speaker 3 (45:58):
Keep saying like, then, like do their defense is dish
dog shit, it's all Josh Allen Captain America.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
So that that's the final factor for me, is that
this is Josh Allen win the MVP game.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
That's the reason I'm like all in on this. It's
just he's going for it.

Speaker 1 (46:19):
Yeah, it's a week where he can do what Lamar
did last week. It's a week where the Ravens could
have a hard time against the Steelers. It's separation week,
It's week sixteen. Lock this shit down, win him the MVP,
because now all of a sudden there is talk, Wait
a second, should Lamar Jackson win the MVP? Look at
how good he is, look at how efficient he is? Right,

(46:40):
So this is the week we're betting Josh Allen to
win the MVP. This is how we're betting Josh Allen.
The odds in Josh Allen winning MVP, there's no value anymore.
We think there might be some value in Josh Allen
to win the MVP against the New England Patriots.

Speaker 3 (46:58):
Yeah, because Josh, again, that's keep put on video game numbers,
because they really do have a joke schedule here. Then
I think they faced the Patriots twice in the Jets
once the season.

Speaker 2 (47:06):
Here.

Speaker 3 (47:07):
On the flip side, Lamar has a tough Pittsburgh game,
then he has Houston. So it's like Lamar could flip
this to his favorite, but I just don't think josh
An allows it. Like this guy is just playing at
the highest level we've ever seen.

Speaker 1 (47:19):
Oh my god, I can't believe we're gonna put this
in the contest, but I think we are. I really do.
Minnesota Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three
and a half. I liked it a lot at three
and a half. I betted at three and a half.
It's basically three everywhere. In fact, I think it'll go
down to two and a half. The old line is
banged up for Seattle. Gino is hobbled. We hope that

(47:40):
he's gonna play. They say he will, but if he's
knocked out, we got Sam Howell. Gino against a spread
at home is a loser bet. Gino against good defense
is a bad bet. I just liked it at three
and a half because I thought Minnesota was inflated. But
if we saw this at three and a half in
the contest, how would you feel.

Speaker 3 (48:00):
I could probably get there, just because, like we've talked
about this, this Minnesota team is great, they've been and
how well they're playing.

Speaker 2 (48:07):
This is a letdown spot.

Speaker 3 (48:09):
They're on the road in Seattle, then they're going to
face Green Bay in the Detroit the next two weeks.

Speaker 2 (48:13):
So it's like the.

Speaker 3 (48:14):
Human element is, how are they not looking ahead? They
know what's ahead of them right, Like they're in total
control of the one seed, even though they want to
say they're not going to overlook the Seattle team. You
just gave a bunch of reasons why they might righte
Like it's a banged up last leg team in Seattle.
And to me, the reason I love it is like
it feels like we're buying really low on the Seattle
team now after last week. Must people that bet them

(48:37):
are going to be really upset about that performance they
put out against Green Bay.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
And I've talked about the stat of nauseum.

Speaker 3 (48:43):
I mean, it's mainly a lot of money this season,
but I basically have just been blindly betting these NFC
North teams and when they go outside the division because
they've just been beating up outside their division this season.
So this is all about the number, Chad, Like you
just said, this number might move too much to the
point of like are we all in Minnesota now?

Speaker 2 (49:00):
This two and a half in contest?

Speaker 3 (49:01):
Like that's the issue I had with this one where
three and a half totally supports you. I think that
was a good read by you on the Seattle team.
But we're getting to bang up o line and a
banged up Gino Smith against a team that loves to
rush the passer, like that's what the Vikings love to do.
So again, there's other ugly dogs we like this week more.
This is a very pros verse Joe's spot though. The

(49:23):
pros they're hitting the Seattle team hard, the public is
thanking them. They are coming even heavier on the opposite
side on this Vikings team. So yeah, really really fun,
interesting game here.

Speaker 1 (49:33):
Maybe the wise guys when they call you, they should
be saying Chad really nailed it with his analysis of
Seattle instead of worrying about my mental state choosing the Bills,
because clearly I'm finding the right side, you know. Tampa
Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it
for it's trending towards three and a half. Money is

(49:55):
coming in on our side. Look, it has not been
six successful move for us this year to fade the
better team when we think it has reached a peak
in the market. Ala Minnesota, A LA the Bucks to me,

(50:16):
I just think this Dallas defense is not getting enough
credit for how much better it has been since Micah
Parsons came back. Alluded to this a little bit, with
the Panthers seven and a half sacks since he came back.
They are three and one in the last four games.
The only loss is that fluky Bengals game, which if

(50:38):
not for a mental breakdown by one of their players,
they probably win that game. So I still like Dallas here.

Speaker 2 (50:50):
Yeah and there.

Speaker 3 (50:51):
Dallas is another team that they seem to play to
level their competition since that, and they've played bad teams
they usually play up to and they've done pretty well well.
And when they've played legit contenders, really good teams, they've
been rolled and blown out.

Speaker 2 (51:04):
This season.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
Now, we think Tampa is right in between there, like
they're a team that any given Sunday they could upset
any team in the NFC. They shouldn't have this season, and
they beat the Eagles in Detroit this season, which is
just crazy to think about. But we've seen it time
and time again with this this Tampa team. They just
have letdown games like it's it's no you know, it's
not something we're making up in our minds, Like we've

(51:26):
seen it now where they've had these big wins, these
big road wins, and they come and they face teams
and they just have huge letdowns. And you know, they've
been really hot since they're bye week, they're four and
oh right, they've just been beating up on teams. And
you know, surprisingly, their only close game in that stretch
was Carolina. That side we took Carolina should have won.
They fumbled away though, right, So that was another spot

(51:49):
of this team being a little lucky. So they beat
up on a bad Vegas team, which the line was
a lot closer than people realize. Like it sounds like
an easy one now, but like people again were hesitant
about this team. Same with against the Chargers, right, a
lot of professionals I knew were coming in on the
other side, like they really liked the charge on that spot.
They went forty to seventeen. How do they not have
a letdown here against an overlook Dallas team, right, going

(52:12):
on the road here, you know, we expect this to
be a close game. Like you just said, Dallas has
just been better than what I feel like people are
giving them credit for in the public perception right now,
Like that game we joked about, but that was a
real thing with that Cincinnati game, Like they should have
either won that game or at least that minimum covered
that that number.

Speaker 2 (52:30):
Yeah, I believe it was five or five and a half.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
Sam goes for here and the books are smart moving
this down because that was a bad number they hung
when it was four and a half. Four, That felt
like that was way too high. This should be closer
to three. Still, like the value of three and a half.
It's just another game that like if you wanted to
put in the contest, I know we're leaning into something
we regretted this whole season, just betting these home dogs.
But how does this line not have a ton of

(52:54):
value on it, Like it's just way too inflated for
a bucksting that we've seen that you can get pressure
on Baker.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
They don't have a great.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
Old line and he'll make mistakes.

Speaker 3 (53:03):
Yeah, and he'll make mistakes, right, And like then you
talked last episode was a bland You talked about that, Yeah, right,
Like that's a big, big upgrade to that Dallas secondary.
So it's just a lot of the points and tracks
to us taking Dallas here. To me, it was all
about the number. If this was three, okay, I could
finally talk ourselves out of it. The fact that you're
still be able to get three and a half four
on this Cowboys team, it's just way too much value

(53:25):
to pass on at that number.

Speaker 1 (53:27):
Yeah, I feel like we're looking at pitt the Jet, Pittsburgh,
the Jets, Dallas, Buffalo, and then we're gonna have to
make a call, you know, is it Washington, is it Carolina?

Speaker 2 (53:44):
Well, I'm surprised you didn't bring up one game.

Speaker 1 (53:46):
What's that?

Speaker 3 (53:46):
The Giants Atlanta? So so we're way ahead of the movement,
which is like the best feeling in the world. Getting
a plus ten against a rookie. I know, obviously he's
not on the road, but like, dude, Pennix is left handed.
They're flipping to a left handed quarterback middle of the
week in this game, I know the Giants are trying

(54:07):
to tank and give up the stet. We already joked
about how they were gonna somehow steal this game. Now
it's even more tempting, like, sure, this kid TeX's come
in and just light the world on fire and completely
roll this Giants team. But how do you not throw
a little bit? I mean again, we don't have to
put this in contest because the number has moved. But
like this one just jumped out to me of like, wow,
the books move this a point and a half when

(54:28):
Kirk got taken out, which was pretty interesting. Fact they
moved that that that much.

Speaker 1 (54:32):
It's heading back in the other direction. It got down
to eight and a half. I think it's back up
to nine. I'm looking in the ad. I'm looking online
right now. No, I'm seeing eight and a half. I'm
I see a couple of nines out there. Actually, I
think Bed three six five, Yeah, Bet three six five
is at nine right now.

Speaker 3 (54:52):
So yeah, just the game that jumped out to me.
It was like, it's it's crazy. This is this kid's
first start, this late in the season, and basically it
must win. Like this is like this kid's first starts
basically a playoff game. Like it's just crazy they're throwing
him right to the fire like this. But like I said,
weeks ago, when they should have made the move, it

(55:13):
didn't make sense why they're keep going Kirk out there.
And I kept saying, maybe we're not seeing what they're
seeing in practice, which is Penix is simply not ready.

Speaker 2 (55:20):
I have no idea.

Speaker 3 (55:21):
I mean, this organization is just such a train wreck
and it's another one of those that's like it's being
run from the owner. Right, this doesn't feel like this
is being run by the GM or the head coach.
Just feels like an owner move. The owner came down
after that embarrassing game against the Raiders and was like
put the kid in, Like I'm done watching Kirk. So
I just the vibes everything about it with Atlanta, I

(55:43):
just want to fade, fade, fade.

Speaker 1 (55:45):
Well, the statement they put out was so weird what
they said. It was like, this is a football decision
and it wasn't Raheem Morris either.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
It was sort of like the order to be a
soccer decision. I hate when fucking people say that it's it.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
Was like it was so it was so sort of
weird and like, you know, real politic kind of thing.
So your your instincts might be right on that. All right,
Well I put on the list. I don't know, I
feel like we're going to have what we'll have a
good spirited debate about it. There is no debate though,

(56:20):
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(57:54):
All right? Each week we give out a two team
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Speaker 2 (58:44):
There will come up payday.

Speaker 4 (58:45):
Hallelu yo, wanna pay day? There will come up payday someday. Someday,
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Speaker 1 (59:00):
Our money line underdog round robin Dallas Cowboys, no surprise,
New York Jets, no surprise, Seattle, San Francisco, the Carolina Panthers.

Speaker 3 (59:10):
So San Francisco is a favorite. Now we have to
take them out.

Speaker 2 (59:14):
Can I get you there for the episode with Washington?

Speaker 1 (59:17):
Sure I could do. I had Washington on my list.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
I think they're a live dog here, so that would
be a fun one.

Speaker 1 (59:23):
Yeah, do it. It's in Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle, Seahawks,
Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line Underdog
round Robin. Give me your biggest bets right now?

Speaker 3 (59:36):
Oh Man, Definitely Jets three and a half. Definitely Washington
three and a half. Obviously, people know the Chiefs. I
was hammering that when it was plus money. Now like,
obviously I'm gonna pull back, probably.

Speaker 2 (59:47):
Dory to hit the middle. We'll see how that Chiefs
games go.

Speaker 3 (59:51):
I mean, if it goes as we expected to, If
it lands and I do Middle, that Pittsburgh might have
been one of my bigger bets as well.

Speaker 2 (59:57):
Like that's a type of type of situation.

Speaker 3 (59:59):
If I'm in the book, I know people who are like, oh,
professionals don't do this. I'm telling you, professionals do this
all the time. We just take that ticket right to
the window and just throw it onto the next game.
It's just you're playing with chips. It's not real money
in my mind. So that's definitely a spot where it's like,
if I hit that middle, I'm gonna be tempted a
load up on this It's Pittsburgh number because it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:17):
Is so big.

Speaker 3 (01:00:19):
Yeah, it's it's a tough one. So yeah, for me,
it's a dog heavy week.

Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
Chat.

Speaker 3 (01:00:23):
Like usually, I've been trying to force in a favorite,
and I really don't have a favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:00:27):
I really love this week, I'll be honest.

Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
Other than Buffalo. Before we get out of here, let's
bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams. We talk
about them constantly on the show. He's gonna have the
final awards. He's going to make us feel even better
about betting all these home dogs, and we keep losing
on the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

Speaker 5 (01:00:47):
I'm gonna try here, but we're gonna start with the
easy one, right, So Raven Steelers. We've talked a ton
about the series stats, and yeah, they all favor the dog,
but I think Lamar versus Tomlin is worth some time
here as well. So Lamar is one and four straight,
up and zero to five against the spread versus Tomlin.
But look inside the numbers. So Lamar's passer rating of
sixty six points seven versus Pittsburgh his lowest versus any

(01:01:10):
opponent by almost ten full points. All right, so he
has five passing touchdowns and eight picks versus Pittsburgh. He
doesn't have a negative touchdown at interception ratio against any
other NFL team in four or five starts. Lamar's under
seven yards per attempt. And even looking at the Ravens
this season, Ravens have five losses this year, four of
them versus top seven pass rushes according to PFF, and

(01:01:33):
Pittsburgh's first. So it's just a bad matchup. Now, this
is where I was gonna actually use Chad the stat
that you used of mine on the bad teams versus
good teams. But it's a great stat. Go back into
the pod, listen to it. I'm gonna talk a little
bit about.

Speaker 2 (01:01:47):
The Jets pick that you guys like.

Speaker 5 (01:01:49):
So the Jets offense has been better now, score twenty
one points or more in four straight games. But to me,
this is about different numbers. If you like the Jets,
So to me, it's a defense that's been bad obviously
since Sala left thirty first in EPA per play thirtieth
and success rate. But I think Rogers and the Cold
it's a good angle there, So I got two more

(01:02:09):
for you. Todd Bowles Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.
Bowles has coached seventeen games as a road favorite. When
the home team scores fourteen points or more, he's five
and zero against the spread.

Speaker 2 (01:02:21):
When the home team.

Speaker 5 (01:02:22):
Scores less more than fourteen points, he's three eight and
one against the spread, losing six of those games outright.
The Cowboys team total in that game is twenty two
and a half, so obviously they're expecting some points, which
seems like a little bit of a big favorite for him.
And I'll leave you with this one. And I added
it because you guys had so much back and forth
on Bill's Patriots. So if Bills do get up early,

(01:02:44):
say they lead seven to nothing. Since it started twenty
twenty two, the Patriots are three and twenty seven straight
up and four to twenty five and one against the
spread when trailing by seven points or more at any
point in the game, worst marks in the NFL. Even
this year, they're zero to eight straight up one in
seven against the spread, losing six of those eight games
by double digits. So the bet to me is just

(01:03:07):
start fast, get Drake in a hole, and Josh will
take care of the rest.

Speaker 1 (01:03:11):
Amen, brother, That's how we see it too, Evan, we
love Buffalo. We are all Matt Mitchell's this weekend. If
the bill's covered by fourteen, I'm not going to eat
like wings with you know, surgical gloves, because I'm not
a crazy person like Matt Mitchell. But maybe i'd have

(01:03:33):
a spoonful of ice cream.

Speaker 2 (01:03:35):
Wait real quick, Yeah, we gotta do scooch for lot.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
Let's play Scooch Rolette.

Speaker 3 (01:03:47):
I'll go with Pittsburgh plus six and a half. Hearing
those Evans stats, how can I not?

Speaker 1 (01:03:51):
All?

Speaker 5 (01:03:51):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:03:51):
Well, guess what I'm taking? The New York Jets? What
number can I get them at? Three and a half? Please,
we'll give it to you, Thank you, thank you. Here's
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(01:04:56):
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