July 15, 2025 • 54 mins
Our division-by-division betting breakdowns will begin at the end of this month. But before we get to that, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter do our annual table-setter episodes to prepare us for all things betting in the NFL for the 2025 season.
Today we do some playoff prognostication with the help of our Action colleague Brandon Anderson. He did a similar episode on the Action Network Podcast with Anthony Dabbundo, and we loved the concept. Together the trio will predict this year’s 14 playoff teams, but Brandon has a little twist.
Since NFL moved to 14 playoff teams, an average of 6 teams drop out of the playoffs from one year to the next. Over 40% have been new participants! Without telling them that, Chad and Simon submitted their predicted playoff teams. And in this episode, we go through where the trio agree (3 teams per conference) and where they disagree (4 teams per conference) to highlight the volatility of the playoff race. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the favorites of the podcast part of the
Volume podcast Network. I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Today we officially kick off our twenty twenty five NFL
season preview episodes. Training camps open at the end of
next week. We've made it through the long, hard, cold
(00:31):
winter of no football. Our division by division betting breakdowns
will begin at the end of this month. But before
we get to that, Simon and I, we'll do our
table Setter episodes to frame what we think when it
comes to all things betting in the NFL. Today, we're
(00:52):
going to start with the big picture playoff prognostication. Before
I dive into the topic, let me bring it my
co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my BFF professional better
sim In Hunter Ella, sim In.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Chad, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (01:08):
I guess we're ready. I guess it's time. I guess
all the planning, all the research, all the conversation, all
the debate, it's time to quite literally put some of
that into action. Today we're going to play a little
game with the help of our Action Network colleague Brandon Anderson.
(01:28):
He actually did this a few weeks ago on the
Action Pod with former colleague Anthony Debundo, now of The Ringer,
and we loved the concept. We're going to predict this
year's fourteen playoff teams, but you and I do every year.
But with Brandon, we're incorporating a little bit of a twist. Brandon,
you are broadcasting from your dungeon bunker, visiting your family
(01:56):
in North Dakota, where apparently they no longer we have electricity.
The host state has gone fully off the grid. So
you know, people who are watching, understand the circumstances for you,
but explain what we're doing today.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, I mean, look, the great news is the internet
speed is slowly getting better here in North Dakota. My
family's been at ten MVPs for years. We're up to
fifteen now. But they got flags in the backyard. They're
finally putting in like the optic cable. So I think
maybe a year from now, next time I'm here, we'll
actually have real internet and have the good setup, but
here from the dungeon. Either way, concept is pretty easy.
(02:35):
Since we moved to fourteen playoff teams. Year by year,
about eight of the fourteen teams return the next season,
about six drop out, so that's almost half that's one
away from half. Obviously over forty percent, so more turnover
than we expect. We know how the NFL is the
League of parody. So the exercise Dubundo and I did was, Okay,
(02:57):
we have to choose six teams to drop out and
six new ones to come in. You gotta follow the rules.
Like you if you drop out a division leader and
you have known from that division, you've got to have
someone in, et cetera. So today we're doing a little
bit differently. We didn't tell you guys the twist. We
just picked our playoff teams and we're gonna kind of
see where do we overlap. What do we end up with.
We end up with three teams that all three of
(03:19):
us have in in the NFC, three in the AFC,
So kind of quickly YadA YadA those and then I
think talk through the teams that we differ on and
kind of see where we overlap.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah. Look, I think that we ended up naturally sort
of finding a way to get to that at six
of fourteen average, just by doing it blindly, not even
knowing that this was the concept. So let's start with
the AFC. The playoff picture, I think is a lot clearer.
(03:53):
All of us have the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Bills. Obvious,
none of us agree on the final four team, so
let's dive in here. One obvious AFC team that missed
last season with a notable caveat was Cincinnati with Joe
(04:14):
Burrow coming off of the injury the year before and
then the team really struggling to start the year. Brandon,
you and I both have Cincinnati getting to the playoffs.
I'll be honest. I had Cincinnati winning the division. So
when I went through this, I had the Ravens as
the wildcard team from that division. Simon, you at Cincinnati
(04:37):
to miss explain yourself.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Uh, they're bad, JAD. It's pretty simp when you break
it down. They are a really bad run team organization,
and they got lucky right they stumbled into Joe Brow
with the number one pick and they're very fortunate. So
every year they will have a chance to make this playoffs.
But you can get them on a plus number to
miss the playoffs. This is a bad team or really
bad defense that could get potentially get worse before they've
(05:04):
ended the season. Like they just keep doing things wrong
and it's catching up to them. Where oh great, we
resigned Chase and Higgins our stead of receivers with Joe Burrow.
That's not their issues. Their issues that offensive line in
the defense, two things they have not really attacked this offseason.
So to me, you know, they got lucky to even
be close to making the playoffs last season when they
played so poorly against winning teams and they had a
(05:26):
pretty easy schedule, right, they caught a bad Browns team
that had backup in they caught a bad Pittsburgh team
when Pittsburgh was kind of on the downslope toward the
end of the season. So to me, it's gonna be
a lot tougher in that division. And the Ravens I
just put so far above them. I don't think it's close,
so that they's just got a team that's gonna be
overrated because it is Joe Burrow, who we all know,
top ten, top six, top five quarterbacks. So to me,
(05:48):
it makes sense why you guys would pick them. I'm
just the other way. I hate the way it's coming
into the season, even the drama with their first round pick,
all of it, and Hendrix's it's so bad to me,
and their defense to me, might be by them five
in the league.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Look, the we're going to do a training camp Questions episode,
and definitely one of the questions that I'm thinking about
is can the Bengals stop bangling because of what they're
doing with Trey Henderson, because of what they're doing with
Shamar Stewart at their first round pick, who they're you know,
(06:23):
trying to set precedent setting contracts with for first round picks. Brandon,
what is your reasoning for the Bengals being in the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Yeah, I think actually, for me, the reasoning is just
that the offense is so good with Burrow, with Tea
and Chase, especially last year when those receivers were both
on the field and I know it's not given we
got the contract settled now, when those two and burw
were on the field, they were an unstoppable offense last season,
like Jamar Chase is breaking records in some games and
(06:56):
doing just crazy stuff. Tea was really good. The being
that good historically puts you in the playoff picture. Like
as long as you just have Burrow, Tea and Chase healthy,
you're in the playoff picture. They have won nine games
or more in four straight seasons, so all they really
need to do is stay mostly healthy and please, for
the love of God, not start on three every single season.
(07:18):
Can we just have a normal September and not dig
a hole immediately? I don't know, So I don't know
if we can bet on them to make the playoffs.
I think you're right time to point out that the
plus number has been a good bet to make at
the start of the year because they usually dig themselves
a hole, and if anything, you can just bet plus
on the other side and just be done. I got
some money either way. Go ahead, Bengals, do your thing.
(07:39):
I need to worry about it anymore. To me, Burrow belongs. Look,
we named off Chiefs Bill's Ravens. For most people, that
would be your top three quarterbacks in the NFL. For me,
Joe Burrow is in that group with those three, not
necessarily as the fourth option. If you have a star
quarterback that's that good, you're in the playof And in
(08:00):
the AFC, I have a lot more teams that I'm
pretty comfortable leaving out of the mix in the NFC.
I would not say put them in as easily, but
I kind of needed teams frankly in the AFC, so
I'm happy to put the Bengals as an option.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Here. By the way, a little preview for a future
episode that we're doing later this week are Top ten Quarterbacks,
which a lot of people talking about quarterbacks this week
and their top ten lists, and Simon and I do
it every year, but we also incorporate a lot about
quarterbacks that we'd want to be betting on or that
we'd be afraid to be betting against. At the end
(08:35):
of the game, you say Joe Burrow would be, you know,
top four, Brandon, I don't disagree. One of us on
this podcast right now had Joe Burrow outside his top five.
That's how down he is on Joe Burrow. The thing
about the Bengals, and I agree with you like I
am all in on Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow's biggest issues
(08:58):
Sometimes in this offensive line is terrible, but the issue
is Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow likes to play hero ball.
He will hold the ball too long with a bad
offensive line and continue to try to make plays which
puts himself in trouble physically, and also make sure that
he gets a lot more sacks than any other quarterback,
(09:20):
which is a constant problem. So it can't all be
on the offensive line, it can't all be on the defense.
And as good as Joe Burrow is, he has made
catastrophic mistakes in inopportune moments, either by taking sacks or
throwing bad balls when he's under pressure. So I understand
Simon's position. I'm just choosing to believe that they have
(09:42):
to get it right and that this will be the year,
and that two teams will come out of the AFC North,
and I don't think it's going to be all right.
And I do think it's going to be the Bengals
and the Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back next one. Simon,
(10:03):
you and I both have the Texans back in the playoffs.
Brandon does not. I know why I believe it. Tell
me why you believe it?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Just the defense. Like to me, they're so talented with
the coaching. It's in that division that there's they're the
only team with something legit great. All the other teams
have questions, right, I have so many questions about Jacksonville.
I mean, hell, we'll get into Houston here. We have
questions about the offensive line like that. That's what we're
freaked out about it. Is CJ gonna take another step
because last year we all agree he just didn't play
(10:37):
up to the level we were expecting after his rookie season.
So if they're in any other division, chat, I probably
would be more down on them because they're in that division.
Last year, they shouldn't have won it, and they just
all these other teams fall apart, and they just kept
turning it out because they have such good coaching, such
good defense. It just keeps them above water. So to me,
I'm with you. I was trying to force in the Titans.
(10:58):
You know how much I love the Titans is up
coming here, But I'm just trying to be realistic here.
And I know people put a hard earn money on
this bet. So to me, if I'm going to go
with a side, I got to go with Houston making
of that division, you know.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Yeah, I think in the end, I was really impressed
with CJ. Stroud and how he played in the playoffs,
even with a terrible offensive line. And if they can
recognize how to improve that offensive line just a little
bit and he can get a little bit better at
getting rid of the ball quickly and improve his QB
(11:35):
pressure rate in which sometimes he was just taking sacks
I think because he was trying to make a play
and it was scrambling and in vulnerable positions so soon
after the ball was snapped. They are legitimately just the
more talented team. He's a more talented quarterback than anyone
else in the division. Their defense is really fantastic. I
(11:58):
think they've got the moors ablished coach than any other
team in the division. So it was a toss up
between Texans and the team that Brandon liked. Brandon, go
ahead and tell us who you think will make it
instead of the Texans.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
So for me, this really is a bet against the Texans.
Like I just I found last year's team hard to inspire.
They finished with a zero point differential on the season.
The defense was great, no doubt. On paper, the Texans
defense is the best unit in the division. It's a
terrible division. Like Simon said, if we had other options here,
it'd be a lot easier. I'm not excited or truly
(12:36):
about the option out to give you, but I'm following
the rules. I can't just knock the whole division out.
I don't believe in the Texans. I'm not there yet.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
On the Titans.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
I think they'll be better. I like the reasons you
like them, Simon, just I'm not ready to go better
enough to win the division. I am going to reluctantly
take the Jacksonville Jaguars. And part of the case here
is again looking at defense, Simon, the Texans, I thought,
maybe we're a top three defense last year on paper,
(13:04):
could be the number one defense this year. Defense is
really unpredictable and not sticky season. This season, I can
predict pretty consistently who the top offenses are, Like, we
can do the top offenses pod and it's gonna be
name the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,
Joe Burr like elite quarterbacks or elite year to year
and have elite offenses. Defense is a lot more Malley
(13:27):
about changes a lot more so. I agree the Bengals
defense was a bottom five defense last year, but historically
there's a decent chance that they go from like twenty
eighth to twenty second, and just that amount of difference,
even just accidentally getting a little better matters when the
offense is that good. With Houston, it's the other way
if you fall from second or third to eighth and
(13:48):
you're still a pretty good defense. Well, if the offense
didn't improve a bunch, that's a pretty big drop off.
And so to me, I'm gonna like default to offense
feeling better. So I have the the Texans falling down,
I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You hear the
excitement in my voice right that the pick here is
Liam Cohen. And I hope that Liam Cohen can do
(14:10):
with Trevor Lawrence what he's done at pass stops. I
think especially Brian Thomas looks like the next just stud receiver.
And now I don't even know what he's going to
be yet, But whatever Travis Hunter is, maybe it's a
little boost at receiver, maybe it's a little boost on defense.
The area of where he can help them, I'm not
sure yet, but I do believe in his talent what
(14:32):
he can do there, and I like the coaching changes
that they made. I think there's a lot of low
hanging fruit from the team. I can see a world
where with Liam Cohen, with these receivers, could Trevor Lawrence
be the best quarterback in this division. I think that's
a very possible world out there. The talent is there.
(14:52):
It's not gonna be cam Ward yet, It's not gonna
be whatever Indianapolis has, Like, I never consider them because
I can't even get on board with who their quarterback is.
Could it be Trevor Lawrence? Could it be nine and
eight or ten and seven? That's probably enough in this division.
Houston's offensive line I think got worse even than it
was last year with Laramy Tunsel gone. They might be
(15:13):
the worst offensive line in the league. And that's another
more predictable thing. Usually I'm kind of just taking the unpredictable.
With Jacksonville, I don't really know what I'm getting, but
there's plenty of talent there. There's a lot of talent
on defense, even if it hasn't been good yet. Maybe
a new coordinator, maybe some new plans can get things
going there. Just give Jacksonville a chance because I got
(15:33):
to pick somebody in the division. That's the case.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, I think it really comes down to which quarterback
do you believe in? Right and CJ. Stroud now two
years in a row, playoff victories in each year, division
titles in each year, even with a dreadful offensive line.
Trevor Lawrence, third coach, in five years, really only one
good season, even on the field when he's been healthy,
(16:00):
consistently missing touch passes in the red zone, consistently being inaccurate,
not making the big plays. I am not willing to
bet on his unpredictability versus c J. Stroud's upside to
me and Simon, you're with me, Simon and I are together.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, And it also feels like we're all gonna look
at the ind of the here and be like Daniel
Jones the Colts, they won this division. We should have known.
So that's I'm with Brandon. This feels like a really
stupid division. So I get why he's going upside. I
just I'm playing it safe. As we all are here
in the AFC. It just feels like we're in an
era where it's very top heavy in both divisions, where
the best are truly the best, and then there's the
(16:40):
rest that are just trying to make into that little group.
So the Texans, I'm with you. There's a lot of questions,
but man, is this division just gross?
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Yeah? That was sort of It came down to Houston
and Jacksonville for me, and it was a flip of
a coin. Last year's Wild Cards, Chargers, Broncos, Steelers. Brandon
and I have the Chargers back in Denver and Pittsburgh out.
Simon has the opposite Denver and Pittsburgh in Chargers out. Uh, Simon,
(17:12):
I want you to go first, explain why you like
Denver and why you like Pittsburgh and why you don't
like the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Yeah, really really boring. Once again, just went back to
it where it's the coaching. I feel like that makes
such a big difference. And we saw last year where
you know, Pittsburgh and Denver pretty shocking to see them
make runs where Pittsburgh did it with Justin Fields and
Russell Wilson, Like that's pretty incredible. And the fact that
(17:41):
you know it's a team that just feels like this
is their run, right all the they have all these guys,
all these veteran players that kind of know this is it.
I mean, obviously what's going on with TJ. Watt's a
big difference here. Like if we're doing this later and
I knew he was already gone and traded, probably would
be a difference maker because he is that and to
that defense. Me and Chat I talk all the time
about the splits when he plays for them when he
(18:03):
doesn't play for them. But just looking at this team
on paper, I just I just trust the coach like
he just always finds to make it work. And that's
such a big deal in AFC. And then same with Denver.
It's like Denver another team that might have a top
five defense, top three offensive line. Bon Knicks, that might
have been the peak what we saw last season. Like
(18:24):
he's old as shit, I get it, but that peak
was pretty good, Like he kept improving. That's what you
want to see with these rookies. The NFL season is
so long and it's such a mental game. And that
was so impressive about Jane Daniels and Bo Knicks is
that you know a lot of their rookies they hit
that rookie wall at some point. These guys broke through it.
They kept improving. Their teams didn't make the playoffs. So
(18:46):
with Denver, it's just really about the coaching and the
fact that they've just drafted so well and they just
have a great team there. So I again I wanted
to take them out like I like putting in new teams.
It's just who are these other teams I trust more
than those two teams, Like I just when you're talking
about the head coaching, those two guys are Hall of famers.
It's tough for me to trust the coach in Cincinnati
rather than the coaching of Pittsburgh and Denver. So that's
(19:09):
where it's like it gets really hazy there at that
final spot putting in these wild card rounds.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Brandon, Yeah, to me, this is really with these teams,
especially two of them, it's about floor versus ceiling. And
with Pittsburgh and Denver, I can't get to a spot
where I'm excited about a ceiling being really above like
ten wins. And I know ten wins gets you to
the playoffs, but ten wins is a win or two
wins away from missing the playoffs. And I don't think
(19:35):
Pittsburgh and Denver are gonna be bad teams. But like Pittsburgh,
we know with Tomlin the five hundred streak, right, we
know that every year we talk about the five hundred streak.
What we don't talk about is they've had ten wins
our the last six of the last seven seasons. So
that is a hard cap on a ceiling for a
team that like, Okay, you blow one or two games
(19:56):
and now you're five hundred and now you're out of
the playoffs. And we got Aaron Tja Watt, Cam Hayward
probably maybe the three best most important players on the team,
certainly up on the list, all ancient in football years,
and Aaron Rodgers fourteen to twenty one the last three
years as a starter. I just feel like the ceiling
(20:16):
is capped there. And I don't like Aaron Rodgers fit
with Arthur Smith offense at all. So I don't know
how that's going to go. I don't know how it
sets up, but we've seen this not go well with
Rodgers recently. With Denver, to me as just a pile
of red flags. I talk about not believing in defense
from year to year. Denver was top five defense and
special teams last year, and both of those scream regression
(20:38):
to the mean. And if it's even a little bit
Denver's offense, I don't believe in much at all. I'm
not a Bonex guy, never been a Bonex guy. I
think last year probably was the best will get if
the defense is worse. Now you're starting with a ball
maybe fifteen yards further back on the field, and now
Bow's gotta actually makes some throws right now, he's gonna
actually do the thing and be quarterback, not just be
(20:59):
game manager. And I think the offense gets worse as
the defense gets worse. I don't believe in that coaching
staff quite as much. I don't believe advanced Joseph on
defense to have them be that incredible again. And in
both teams cases, Pittsburgh and Denver, they're both in tough
divisions too, right, They're both in divisions where each of
us has two other teams in Pittsburgh's division in the playoffs. Well,
(21:21):
I guess Simon has Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but tough divisions,
there certainly are three clearer playoff contenders Chargers with the
other division as well, so I think two. You know,
that's like if you look at Chiefs Chargers or Ravens Bengals,
that might be three losses already right there for either
one of these teams as well. So to me, the
(21:42):
Chargers are not a ton different on the floor ceiling thing.
The difference is, I'm gonna come back to the quarterback again,
justin Herbert and no we even seen it long enough,
but we saw him make a better leap in the
second half of the season, we saw him more passing
as they kind of open up the offense a little bit.
They added backed in on the line. They're gonna get
year two of Lad McConkey. And again here's ceiling versus floor.
(22:05):
We're talking about the scene capped with Tomlin and with
the Broncos. Jim Harbaugh's floor to me, in five seasons
in the NFL, he's never finished below five hundred either.
But he's at eleven wins or more four of the
five seasons, and most of those are in the sixteen
game seasons, right, So eleven and five are better. I'm
not excited about the Chargers. I don't think I want
a Super Bowl ticket on the Chargers, but justin Herbert
(22:28):
to me has the talent to maybe push into that
top four or five quarterback range if he ever pulls
it together. We're running out of time here, but I
can see a floor and get excited about the ceiling,
and I rather have that delta pushing up than the
other two teams where the delta seems down to me.
So I have Chargers in with the high floor and
(22:48):
the Steelers and the who am I talking about the
Steelers In the Broncos I have out with the cap ceiling.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
You're not worried about regressing that from Chargers defense, Yeah,
I am really exceeded what they should have. You can
agree with that.
Speaker 3 (23:04):
That was incredible the talent on certainly of these three teams,
there's no question which defense I feel least good about
going into the season. It just again kind of fitting
in my theme here, especially in the AFC. I don't
feel great about a lot of teams in the conference.
I'm gonna trust the quarterback and the offenses that I
feel good about. I'm basically saying I trust my ability
(23:27):
to evaluate offense better than I trust my ability to
evaluate defense. Defense is just gonna push toward the middle,
and I trust. Yeah. I'm taking what might just be
the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and put them
in the playoffs, and so I don't mind doing that.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
In the AFC, I cannot disagree with any of the
analysis from Brandon. It's why I have the Chargers in.
I'm betting on the better quarterback, Simon. We love Sean Payton.
He's a great coach to bet on, but so is
Jim Harby. And there were games last year, especially a
(24:01):
game between the two of them where Harbaugh just out
coached Sean Payton and won a game. Because of that,
I'm going to bet on Harbaugh. I'm gonna bet on Herbert.
I'm not going to bet on bow Knicks. That's really
what it's coming down to. And I think Aaron Rodgers
has just been fading. He's just not that good of
a quarterback anymore. So that's why I ultimately decided on
Cincinnati in that division instead of Pittsburgh. The summarize, we've
(24:24):
all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo really going out on
Alledge with those picks. The summarize, we've all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo,
really going out on Alledge with those picks. My next
three Houston Chargers, Cincinnati, Simon, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Brandon Chargers, Jacksonville, Cincinnati,
(24:56):
one more spot for each of us. Brandon and Chad agree.
Mike Rabel New England Patriots, and I will kick it
off and say a I love Rabel. I think is
an instant difference maker. I think he can make this
team two to three games better. I like that they
(25:18):
drafted high for the offensive line. They've nominally improved the
receiving corps. Drake May showed enough last year that when
he had no webs in weapons, he had moxie and
an ability to move the ball and defensively, this team
is also improving, so you know it. It's not commanders like,
(25:43):
but to me, it is Commander's light. So that's why
I liked the Patriots. Brandon back me up.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Yeah, I mean, I think you made the case. I
agree with all that. I love building in the trenches,
Will Campbell, Morgan, Moses, Scared Bradbury. This was probably the
worst line in the league last year. This could be
towards the league average line once they kind of jel
all and get used to things. Drake May I am
very excited about. I think there is a world where
Drake May is what we think about last season into
(26:16):
the year. CJ. Stroud, what we think about maybe when
we've done with Trevor Lawrence, where we bump him up
into like the eighth spot, you know, that young quarterback
that makes the leap. I think Drake May looked really
good last year, especially given the context of terrible blocking,
no real weapons, and he still played really good football.
I frankly don't love long term the Vrabel and Josh
(26:37):
McDaniel's thing. I'm less excited about the future five years
from now about Drake May, but I think in the
immediate future, this again is a ceiling floor thing. I
think they had a lot of floor. They increased the
offensive line on defense, they get Milton Williams, they get
Harold Landry, Carlton Davis, the best corner in the market.
I think Davis and Christian Gonzalez could give them maybe
(26:59):
the best corners in the league if things turn out
well there. So I think just raising the floor by saying, Okay,
let's just get some guys, get some guys who can
actually play football for us, and give us a chance.
The only bumber here, Chad, is that everyone else thinks
this too. Like the Patriots, there's no value on betting
them to do anything because what are they favored in
(27:19):
like eleven games already going into the year when they
were terrible last year. So I don't know. I wonder
if I ended up swerving on this, just trying to
find value somewhere else because there's really no way to
bet this right now because everyone's already in the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Well, simon giving you an option, right here lay it
on us. Who's your seventh team?
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Well, I will say to the Patriots, just what you
guys talk about physical dead on arrival. Everyone's just in
on it because they have an easy schedule. The Vrabel bump,
Drake may your two jump, I get it. I didn't
pick them obviously, because to me, it's it's gonna come
down to I trust coaches that are in new spots
like Vrabel, that are talented, but with a veteran quarterback
(28:01):
that I can trust as well. And that's why I
ended up on Vegas, and I'm gonna save it because
there's a lot of data to back it up. I want,
I want to dive more into it. But Gino Smith
splits between outdoors and indoors is massive, and going from
Seattle to Vegas, it's gonna be a big deal for him,
and especially in that offense where you know, to me,
(28:23):
it's gonna be a really old school what Pete Carroll
wants to do with the Marshaun Lynch Russell Wilson type
of style. Right, They're gonna be a run heavy team
with gent and I love Gino Smith aspect of it,
so I'm the hardest part is trying to find the
last place team that makes the jump. Like, that's what
I'm looking for here, because we always know that randomly happens.
I don't know. I don't know why I ended up
(28:45):
on Vegas. It really again, I was looking at Tennessee,
but I was just like, man, this just feels like
the type of spot that like, we're not not overlooking
that we kind of are right. It's Pete Carroll on
the Raiders with Gino Smith. It's not sexy, it's not fun,
it's not being talked about really by now media. So
that's why it just they feel like the perfect under
the radar team that sneaks in there in that final
(29:05):
seventh spot. But again, get I get the Patriots love,
they got the schedule. They obviously have the talent you
think across the board if their quarterback takes that year
to jump, but that's the big question, right, So to me,
I'm playing it safe here, going to betteran quarterback. And
what I think is gonna be a big deal going
from Seattle to an indoor eight nine games out of
the year. It's gonna be a big deal for Gino.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Well, you can be right, that's a sneaky smart player
that the Raiders might have made to give themselves a
little bit of a higher floor with a coach who
is seventy something years old and might not have that
many years, so you want to take advantage of what
he's trying to build there as quickly as you can.
NFC is interesting because we all agree on two returning
(29:47):
teams of the seven that can make the playoffs, and
it's not teams that you would expect. We agree on
Philadelphia in Green Bay, and we agree on a third
team that missed the playoffs last year in San Francisco.
Before we get into anything quick, yes or no? Do
(30:08):
we all agree San Francisco could end up being the
number one seed in the NFC? Simon, Yes or no?
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Yes, just because of schedule, Brandon.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Yes, they're my one super Bowl ticket right now.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Chad. Yes, they are one of my two super Bowl
tickets right now. Okay, that leaves four more teams. We
don't even agree on whether or not last year's number
one seed will make it. Chad, Chad, I'm getting too
used to referring to myself in the third person. Simon
(30:45):
and I agree that Detroit is in I will say
they were one of my last teams in Brandon. You
like Detroit to miss, so explain yourself.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Yeah, I just I love to bet on fading. The
brain drain on teams, and the brain drain coming in
Detroit is going to be huge. Everyone's gonna be talking
about it, Ben Johnson, and we're gonna come back to
him in a bed. I know, but Ben Johnson out
the door. We haven't seen what this offense is gonna
look like without his play calling, we haven't seen. Everyone
loves Dan Campbell's aggressiveness. Okay, are we sure we love
(31:18):
it when we don't get Ben Johnson's play calling with
the aggressiveness, We're sure that we love that version of
his aggression. You know, we've seen coaches over the years
where that aggression runs out and it suddenly doesn't work anymore.
We've seen Jared Goff without Ben Johnson, without Sean McVay,
be a very mediocre to bad quarterback, and we saw
him in this Lions team not look good until Ben
(31:41):
Johnson started making the calls. Aaron Glenn on defense really
surprised me las year. I didn't give them enough credit.
That defense really overperformed and then and I think everyone
loves to revision his history and say the Lions had
the year from hell because they had all the injuries
at the end of the season. They certainly did, but
I thought it was a Lion's year for like three
fourths of the season. I thought it was the Lions
(32:01):
year that they were the team that, man, everything is perfect,
They're going to be the Super Bowl team this year.
And so you get both sides. Both of those count
I do like for them. DJ Reid I think is
a really nice addition for them with Terry and Arnold.
So I think actually Detroit's defense could be better maybe
than they were last year. They're getting Aden Hutchinson back.
(32:22):
He was probably the defensive player of the year until
he got hurt. So it's yeah, it's not a team
that I'm like super loving to fade because it's a
very talented roster. But I think the defense can be
a little better, but the offensive line gets worse. Frank
Raig now is a really big loss for them. The
splits with him playing and not playing is a big deal.
And then you take the play calling away, you make
(32:44):
Goff a little bit worse, and now I think you
just have like a round a league average offense and defense,
maybe even slightly above average on both. But the NFC
is tough. I could see this team being like a
nine win team and still missing the playoffs, especially in
a very tough division. So you know, just a team
that when you lose Ben Johnson, lose Aaron gly and
(33:05):
lose Frank rag Now, like that's coaching an offensive line,
that's my stick, Like that's my thing. So if you're
going to lose that much drain in those areas, it
has to be a team I'm out on.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
Yeah. Look, those are all the reasons why I potentially
left them out. Ultimately decided that's downgrading a little bit
too much given how high their ceiling was last year. Simon,
you're with me, explain for the both of us.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Detroit, it's still gonna be that Detroit offense, right. I
do think they'll take a step back. They obviously won't
be the one seed, but could they still steal this
division somehow or make the wild court. I think that
will because they have just so much talent. And to me,
it's it's what you just talked about. The let's speakin
in the end. Like their window, we know football's window
is two to three years usually, and then you kind
of have to re remake who you are, like you
(33:57):
have to become a whole new team and build out
throughout the draft. And they've drafted so well that maybe
they have another year or two to do it. But
I'm with you, guys, like I was looking forward to
betting them on the division last year, looking forward to
betting them to potentially WINNFC. I didn't do any Super
Bowl futures. Me and Chat talked about. I just didn't think.
I thought just something about the fact that it's Detroit
(34:18):
and it's golf. I was like, there's some something's gonna
go awry here, and sure enough, pick six later against
Washington it happened. So it's it's a tough spot with Detroit. Chat.
I think me and you feel the same way, where
we know the possibility them falling off the cliff is
real because football is so dependent on coaching. But man,
you just when you break it down, it's like the
(34:39):
talent's there. The question, to the end of the day
will be is that new offensive line they're building is
it gonna work? Because they've had some major departures and
we talk agnaisma about it, but it's such an important
cog to the NFL machine, that offensive line. So to me,
that ended U might being the Achilles Seal of this team.
But to not make the playoffs, Wow, that's that's a
nice that's a nice plus number. Brandon. Do you remember
(35:00):
the number was on that the bet Detroit not making
the playoffs?
Speaker 1 (35:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (35:02):
No, because I bet you that's what plus two hundred
you think plus two fifty at least, right?
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah. I haven't seen the number in recent times in
the debt of July here in the Dungeons in North Dakota.
But yeah, it's definitely a nice plus number because you know,
if you're picking the one seed to miss out the
following season, you're gonna get a number on that. To me.
I know we talked about like the Super Bowl losers curse,
who's that team that's going to fall off from last year?
They didn't make the Super Bowl, they didn't win a
(35:29):
playoff game. But I think Detroit is that team this year.
I think they're the team that has the weight of
what last year was and what this year isn't anymore
coming back to them. And I think partly it's because
the division is so strong.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Well, look, we can talk about the division, because that's
where we also have some discrepancies. The one thing I'll add, Simon,
you talked about offensive line, Brandon, you mentioned Frank Ragnow.
They also lost Kevin Zeitdler, who was one of the
best guards in football and maybe huge impact on their
ability to run the ball and convert so frequently on
(36:06):
fourth down. So I do think that's an I think
the weight of expectations and Brandon, I think that's a
great way to frame it. You talk about that Super
Bowl hangover for the team that lost, they feel the
same weight, like they feel they should have been there
to not get there for a second year in a row.
The San Francisco loss a couple of years ago I
think was inspiring. The one last year was a little
(36:28):
bit deflating. The rest of the NSC North is interesting.
I've got the Bears, Brandon, You've got the Bears in Minnesota. Simon,
You've only got Detroit. I will say for the Bears, obviously,
what's that I also have green Bay, right, you have
green Bay. I have Detroit, Chicago and green Bay. Brandon,
(36:51):
hash Chicago, Minnesota and green Bay. Simon, you have green
Bay and Detroit. I say this is an unbiased way
as possible. Everything the Lions lost for Ben Johnson, the
Bears are getting. I believe that their offense, they are
peaked at skill positions. They made their offensive line into
(37:14):
what I believe can at least be a top five
or top ten offensive line. The biggest challenge is going
to be what have they done to improve their pass rush?
Not as much as you like as a fan, but
I like what they did offensively enough for them to
make the playoffs. Brandon, you've explained why you're out on Detroit.
(37:35):
Explain Minnesota with a touch of a compliment to what
I said about the Bears.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, I mean with the Bears, really it's the same
thing as the Lions. Literally it's Ben Johnson, but it's
the same points. I believe in investing in the lines,
winning in the trenches, and winning with good coaching. I
think those are two edges as a better especially in
the futures market, that a big edge on. And I
think what the Lions lost, quite literally was what the
(38:05):
Bears gained here with Ben Johnson and what Caleb Williams
year two should look like with him, but also investing
in that offensive line. I'm never gonna not like what
you did if you go and get Joe Thoney and
Drew Dolloman and Jonathan Jackson Grady Jarrett on defense, Like
if you're bringing all the boys in the middle around
the football, I'm gonna like what you did. So what
(38:25):
Detroit didn't do that I didn't like is what the
Bears did do And frankly, it's kind of what the
Vikings did as well. The Vikings get back Christian darrisaw
him and Brian O'Neal, I think are one of the
better tackle combos in the league. On the offensive line,
Darris only played six and a half games last year,
but then they rebuilt the interior of the line with
what basically was a pretty good Colts interior of the
(38:46):
line in the last couple of years when healthy. They
also go out and get Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave
as swings in the defensive line, adding to what was
already really talented defense. Now this was a defense that
was really really good. And by my own thing I've
said just half an hour ago, shouldn't I be weary
that won't they fall back to the earth? I am
(39:06):
wary of that. I think Brian floor's defense. We've seen
that within the season before, even where they kind of
get found out a little bit. The corners are still
pretty weak on this team. Just to me, this is
a high floor formula. We have a great offensive line,
a ton of weapons on offense, a really good defense
that may not be number two, but we know Flores
(39:27):
gets defenses perform at a top ten level year after
year when he has some talent there. The trenches are good,
the coaching is good. There's just a lot to believe in.
And I haven't said the one name that you maybe
don't believe in, which is JJ McCarthy. We don't know
about JJ McCarthy, but we didn't know about Sam Donald
last year either, And frankly, we had all the reasons
(39:49):
to not believe in Sam Donald. Why can't JJ McCarthy
be as good as Sam Donald? Why can't he be
as good as what Jared Goff was with a good
play caller. Why can't JJ McCarthy be better than Sam Darnald.
I don't know. With this blocking and I think two,
I'm excited as a Vikings fan, and I will say
normally that would make me bet against Minnesota, not for them.
So don't take that with too much a grain of salt,
(40:10):
but I'm excited to see what can this offensive do
with a quarterback that can move a little bit. That's
one thing that koc has not had is a guy
that can move out of the pocket create a little
bit with his legs. I think McCarthy gives them a
new dimension to the offense they haven't had with the weapons,
with the run game that they found last season, with
the line, I think there's there are a lot of
(40:32):
outs for Minnesota to still be good. I know that
it all says fourteen and three expected wins like eleven wins.
They were nine to one in all the one score games.
We know all the reasons that they should be worse
this year. This is a team that I traditionally would
choose to be out on. I'm kind of purposefully swerving
and saying, Okay, I think they can be worse than
(40:53):
that record. They were not that good last year, but
I think they could be a better team this year
and still have a a floor in a structure that
puts them in the mixing the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
All right, Simon, anti Bears, anti Vikings, explain yourself.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
Yeah, the Vikings one's pretty easy. It just you have
to pick some teams that made it last year to
miss everything he just highlighted, is it's all red flags.
Like me and you were so down on them coming
to the season. It was pretty simple. We just didn't
believe Sam Darnold, and he outperformed anybody's watle it's expectations
in all those fourth quarters, any game that was tight,
the other team, Wilton and he always stepped up and
(41:32):
eventually it ran out like we saw in that Detroit
then the Rams game, it just he had a peak
and then eventually it just came crashing down. So it's
all there, Like that defense obviously overperformed because they were
so well coached in Minnesota. But it's another thing. It's
the unknown quarterback. So yeah, they could potentially be a
team to make it. But betting odds, going off past
(41:53):
history and one score wins, we see it fluctuates and
it is depending on coaching. Like coaching can be so good,
you can rise above it. We've seen Pittsburgh door for years,
but it's unlikely just in your division, it's so brutally tough,
Like all these teams are so talented, so well coached
and that's where it's tough. With Chicago, Chad. You have
an offensive coordinator coming in doing his first coaching job
(42:15):
in the NFL. Year one. We've seen a timetime again.
It could be beautiful for five six weeks and then
just crash and burn. One little thing goes wrong, he
loses the locker room, whatever it may be, it could
be really bad. We don't know what type of coaching
style he has yet. We know he's a psycho like
we've seen him talk and he's all in, I love it.
Like he's an exact type of coach you want perfectionists,
(42:38):
makes hi run the same play ten times until they
run the exact way he wants it. That's what you
need in the NFL. You need someone like that to
that pays dunch and every little detail so kind of work.
If they win, hell yeah. But if it goes bad,
we've seen in Chicago it goes really bad because it's
just so much weight on that team in that city
and it's a first year head coach. So with me
and them, it's it was really tough because I took
(42:59):
the Detroit over them. That was like I was in
between Chicago Detroit because I have green Bay in the
winning the division, you know, if I'm betting wise, So
that's where he just came down to. It was just tough.
Am I really going to take Chicago year one? To me? I?
Me and you talk about a little bit, chat. I
just think this is another growing year for Caleb Williams.
I would be so happy if they made it right,
they string together a couple of those one score wins, right,
(43:21):
huge jump because the offensive line, the coaching staff, no
one to be shocked Chicago making It's just unlikely because
it's just such a tough division.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
We both have, Simon, You and I both have Dallas In.
Uh none of us have the commanders in.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
It's interesting, right, Yeah, This just feels like a natural
regression regression for defenses, figuring out how to stop Jadan Daniels,
the regression on fourth down conversions, the way he plays.
Who knows the injury possibilities are just higher that defense.
Since Brandon pointed out it is inconsistent year to year.
(44:03):
Last year they were better than expected. Did they do
anything to get that much better during the offseason? Simon,
you and I both like Dallas In. I like it
more because their defense is going to be healthier and
they have Dac back. Can you give a little bit
of insight because I want to do this one quickly
because we got a lot still to get through, but
(44:23):
a little bit of insight on Dallas.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Yeah, And I'll save all of for when we do
divisional talks with Dallas, because you know how I feel
about them. But it really is that simple, as Chad
said it, It's just a team that's coming off a
down year. They're going to have their quarterback back, have
a number two receiver in pickings. That's a big upgrade.
I think the offense line will be better because they
were so young last year. They should have a running game.
Just that defense, like that defense is a ton of talent.
They just simply could not stop the run. And they
(44:48):
feel like they've addressed that here in this offseason. So
for me, that was easy one. With Washington, I don't
know if we're all in agreement, but it's kind of
what Chad said, right, It's the aggression of Jade and
Daniels and just that defense, Like they have not improved
that defense, it's in any way, and they just overachieved
in so many ways. And we talked about that Chicago game.
Felt could flipped their season. They felt like they could
have gone either way. Right, they lose that game, Chicago,
(45:10):
and it goes the other way, they win it, they
go on the up and up. Chicago's got the other way, right,
chicaganna win another game for like five six weeks after
that loss to Washington. So, yeah, that's Washington. You're playing
with house money. Like those fans, they don't care what
we're saying right now. They believe in Jad and Dana's
They think they have the greatest quarterback ever. And we
all agree it's highly talented. But eighty percent of fourth down,
(45:31):
it's just it's not it's disagression. It's impossible. Like he
maybe is neo he's gonna break the matrix. But we've
seen the NFL, these guys getting paid millions and millions
of dollars. They will figure it out. They always do.
Like doesn't matter how great you are, they will find
your weakness and they will attack it after six months
of grinding tape in the offseason. So yeah, Brandon, where
(45:54):
we at with Washington in the same boat as me
and Chad. I can't believe all three of us have
them out.
Speaker 3 (45:59):
Yeah, I very similar. I think the fourth down conversion
rate is just crazy outlier and has to come down.
I think two this is this year's Houston. This is
the hype team with the young quarterback that everyone's excited about.
And I think they got a little bit of their
own excitement too. We see a team each year that's like,
you know what, we're one or two pieces away, So
what do they do rather than going out and building
(46:20):
the roster the right way. Washington wasn't supposed to be
this good last year. They're supposed to be slowly building up,
and they're like, oh no, we're gonna go get Deebo,
who hasn't been good for a couple of years anyways.
And we're gonna get Laromie Tunsel, who's gonna fix our
whole offensive line. But oh wait, there's still four other
guys on the line, and their line get really found
out as the season went on last year too. So
I think we see those teams that make the big
(46:42):
splash moves and everyone's excited, we already had a good team,
now we had these two stars onto the team. They
I think are the team that finished nine to one
in games under a touchdown, including four straight to make
the playoffs, then Tampa in the playoffs, and then frankly
right place, right time to take advantage of the Detroit
defense that just had nobody left. In the NBA, we
(47:05):
see teams make the conference finals and then get high
on their own juice and be like, oh, here we are.
You know, the Atlanta Hawks did it. The Portland Trail
Blazers did it. We see year after year and they're like, Okay,
we're all on this core now, and it turns out
that was the best it got with that group. You
gotta still kind of pivot and go somewhere. Growth isn't linear,
So I think Washington, I'm not out on Jaden. I
(47:26):
just need the rest of the team to come with it.
I think the rest of the team's going to take
some work. Dallas, I'm less excited. But if you like Dallas,
I think Parsons Defensive Player of the Year is a
good way to invest in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (47:38):
I like that growth isn't linear, all right. We all
like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco. We all have very
different choices for winners of the NFC South. I like Atlanta,
Simon likes Tampa Bay, Brandon Lakes Carolina. Let's think about
that as we go into sort of figuring out what
(47:59):
our final equation looks like. Brandon and Simon, you guys
agree that your final team in the playoffs is the
Los Angeles Rams. I'll let you start, Brandon. You have
(48:20):
the Rams going in, So your final seven I believe
would be Rams, Bears, Bikings, Eagles, Green Bay, San Francisco,
and Carolina.
Speaker 3 (48:39):
Yes, why the Rams? Yeah? I think just with the Rams.
They had a ton of injuries last year and still
made the playoffs. Anyway, Now they get DeVonta Adams and
replacement for Coup Devanta Adams plus Puka, I think can
be just a really really good receiving corps. The offensive
line also had a ton of injuries last year. Aleric
(48:59):
Jackson and left tackle missed the first two games. Steve
Avlo was hurt a lot of the season. Rob Havinstan
was hurt. I think this year you get a better line.
Stafford historically has very much reflected the play of his line,
and frankly so is Sean mcvay's offense. We think of
Sean McVay as this like crazy attacking offense. His offense
goes where the run game goes and when the line
(49:20):
is better, the run game with Karen Ronan is gonna
be better. So I think this offense when healthy, which
we can't just assume they're gonna be healthy. They're not
going to be They're gonna miss some games when you
have Devant Dams and Puka and Stafford, they're gonna miss
a little bit of time. But when healthy, they're gonna
be as good as anyone. We saw that Bills game
last year right where they just looked, you know, they
could put up any points, any score they needed to
(49:42):
the defense. I don't love it, but I think it's
young and improving, heading in the right direction. Matt Stafford
has been my first MVP bet for the season, not
because I'm all in on of the Rams, far from it.
I'm not really believing the team, but if they hit
what they could be, I think this offense, if they're
healthy all year, it could be like a thirteen win team.
(50:02):
And Stafford is a fifty to one MVP ticket is
a ticket worth investing in for once. No brain drain
In Los Angeles, Sean McVay finally didn't lose everybody that
he's ever talked or out of copy with before, so
we just kind of get to run back a team
that was pretty good already. So a lot of options.
I like the other teams in that division as well,
but for now I've got the Rams in Simon.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
Yeah, I just love this Rams team. I like them
more than forty nine ers. I know you guys are
both bigger on the forty nine ers right now, and
I agree for season long, that's fair because we've just
seen this Rams team every year. They feel like they
start slow and then they play catch up second half.
So to me, it's it's understainable why people would be
high in the forty nine ers. But when you break
down the Rams, I just think across the board they
(50:45):
have so much talent and adding Adams to this team
is just insane, Like I can't believe that got him
with Puka, that's just such a nice combo. And you
know their defensive line. I think they're just severely underrated.
Like they're a young, hungry group that we've seen time
time again. If you coach it right, they grew and
they get better. It's a big deal. Last year their
final five to six games, that d Lion got so
(51:05):
much better for that Rams team, they really improved. I
feel like that Bill's game is a turning point for them.
They really figured some stuff out after that. Different combinations,
and I just love the way they played heading especially
in the playoffs, like that Vikings game, that de line
dominated against the Eagles. They're really really talented and dominant.
So yeah, that Rams team, if I'm going to make
one futures bet in NFC, wouldn't be the Eagles. It
(51:26):
would still be this Rams team to win the Super Bowl.
I just think they have the best value. Been there,
done that, right, head coach, quarterback, we talk all the time.
That's such a big deal in football, like knowing you've
already climbed that mountain you won't get phase and those
tough moments in the playoffs. That's a big deal to me.
So yeah, Shanahan, I love them. But man, we've had
some brutal, brutal losses on futures on him with that
(51:47):
f forty nine are seeing to the Super Bowl. So yeah,
just confidence level. I'm all in on this Rams team
this upcoming season.
Speaker 1 (51:52):
I signon, give me your final seven for the NFC.
Speaker 2 (52:00):
So I went Dallas Eagles out of the East. Believe
I Bucks, South, Green Bay, Detroit for the North and
who do I have West? I believe I have the
forty nine ers and just the Rams. So yeah, the
loan division gotta go to the South right with the Bucks.
It's just that that one's such a toss up. I
(52:21):
know a lot of pros just like Brandon here, they
like Panthers, mean and Chad, we drank that kool aid.
I would love for that to work out, But give
it out on this show. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna
play it safe in case people are betting stuff for
giving out here and just go Bucks. It's just I
know they lost, you know, argument in the best office
corodinators in football. But yeah, just we can't stop our
Baker love. We just love Baker on this show.
Speaker 1 (52:42):
All right. I am on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta. Brandon,
one more reminder, Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Chicago,
(53:02):
Minnesota and the Rams love you wild. I mean, that's
what we're given. Everybody's got an option for something with
this one. Brandon Anderson from the Dungeons of North Dakota,
thanks for coming on the podcast and creating this game
(53:23):
that we could play, called Who Will Make the Playoffs
in the NFL. The Favorites will return with our next
episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page with special
guest Rich Reebar talking top ten quarterbacks. Also check it
out with clips and highlights at Real Chad Milman on YouTube.
(53:45):
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Welcome to the favorites of the podcast part of the
Volume podcast Network. I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Today we officially kick off our twenty twenty five NFL
season preview episodes. Training camps open at the end of
next week. We've made it through the long, hard, cold
(00:31):
winter of no football. Our division by division betting breakdowns
will begin at the end of this month. But before
we get to that, Simon and I, we'll do our
table Setter episodes to frame what we think when it
comes to all things betting in the NFL. Today, we're
(00:52):
going to start with the big picture playoff prognostication. Before
I dive into the topic, let me bring it my
co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my BFF professional better
sim In Hunter Ella, sim In.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Chad, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (01:08):
I guess we're ready. I guess it's time. I guess
all the planning, all the research, all the conversation, all
the debate, it's time to quite literally put some of
that into action. Today we're going to play a little
game with the help of our Action Network colleague Brandon Anderson.
(01:28):
He actually did this a few weeks ago on the
Action Pod with former colleague Anthony Debundo, now of The Ringer,
and we loved the concept. We're going to predict this
year's fourteen playoff teams, but you and I do every year.
But with Brandon, we're incorporating a little bit of a twist. Brandon,
you are broadcasting from your dungeon bunker, visiting your family
(01:56):
in North Dakota, where apparently they no longer we have electricity.
The host state has gone fully off the grid. So
you know, people who are watching, understand the circumstances for you,
but explain what we're doing today.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, I mean, look, the great news is the internet
speed is slowly getting better here in North Dakota. My
family's been at ten MVPs for years. We're up to
fifteen now. But they got flags in the backyard. They're
finally putting in like the optic cable. So I think
maybe a year from now, next time I'm here, we'll
actually have real internet and have the good setup, but
here from the dungeon. Either way, concept is pretty easy.
(02:35):
Since we moved to fourteen playoff teams. Year by year,
about eight of the fourteen teams return the next season,
about six drop out, so that's almost half that's one
away from half. Obviously over forty percent, so more turnover
than we expect. We know how the NFL is the
League of parody. So the exercise Dubundo and I did was, Okay,
(02:57):
we have to choose six teams to drop out and
six new ones to come in. You gotta follow the rules.
Like you if you drop out a division leader and
you have known from that division, you've got to have
someone in, et cetera. So today we're doing a little
bit differently. We didn't tell you guys the twist. We
just picked our playoff teams and we're gonna kind of
see where do we overlap. What do we end up with.
We end up with three teams that all three of
(03:19):
us have in in the NFC, three in the AFC,
So kind of quickly YadA YadA those and then I
think talk through the teams that we differ on and
kind of see where we overlap.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah. Look, I think that we ended up naturally sort
of finding a way to get to that at six
of fourteen average, just by doing it blindly, not even
knowing that this was the concept. So let's start with
the AFC. The playoff picture, I think is a lot clearer.
(03:53):
All of us have the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Bills. Obvious,
none of us agree on the final four team, so
let's dive in here. One obvious AFC team that missed
last season with a notable caveat was Cincinnati with Joe
(04:14):
Burrow coming off of the injury the year before and
then the team really struggling to start the year. Brandon,
you and I both have Cincinnati getting to the playoffs.
I'll be honest. I had Cincinnati winning the division. So
when I went through this, I had the Ravens as
the wildcard team from that division. Simon, you at Cincinnati
(04:37):
to miss explain yourself.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Uh, they're bad, JAD. It's pretty simp when you break
it down. They are a really bad run team organization,
and they got lucky right they stumbled into Joe Brow
with the number one pick and they're very fortunate. So
every year they will have a chance to make this playoffs.
But you can get them on a plus number to
miss the playoffs. This is a bad team or really
bad defense that could get potentially get worse before they've
(05:04):
ended the season. Like they just keep doing things wrong
and it's catching up to them. Where oh great, we
resigned Chase and Higgins our stead of receivers with Joe Burrow.
That's not their issues. Their issues that offensive line in
the defense, two things they have not really attacked this offseason.
So to me, you know, they got lucky to even
be close to making the playoffs last season when they
played so poorly against winning teams and they had a
(05:26):
pretty easy schedule, right, they caught a bad Browns team
that had backup in they caught a bad Pittsburgh team
when Pittsburgh was kind of on the downslope toward the
end of the season. So to me, it's gonna be
a lot tougher in that division. And the Ravens I
just put so far above them. I don't think it's close,
so that they's just got a team that's gonna be
overrated because it is Joe Burrow, who we all know,
top ten, top six, top five quarterbacks. So to me,
(05:48):
it makes sense why you guys would pick them. I'm
just the other way. I hate the way it's coming
into the season, even the drama with their first round pick,
all of it, and Hendrix's it's so bad to me,
and their defense to me, might be by them five
in the league.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Look, the we're going to do a training camp Questions episode,
and definitely one of the questions that I'm thinking about
is can the Bengals stop bangling because of what they're
doing with Trey Henderson, because of what they're doing with
Shamar Stewart at their first round pick, who they're you know,
(06:23):
trying to set precedent setting contracts with for first round picks. Brandon,
what is your reasoning for the Bengals being in the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Yeah, I think actually, for me, the reasoning is just
that the offense is so good with Burrow, with Tea
and Chase, especially last year when those receivers were both
on the field and I know it's not given we
got the contract settled now, when those two and burw
were on the field, they were an unstoppable offense last season,
like Jamar Chase is breaking records in some games and
(06:56):
doing just crazy stuff. Tea was really good. The being
that good historically puts you in the playoff picture. Like
as long as you just have Burrow, Tea and Chase healthy,
you're in the playoff picture. They have won nine games
or more in four straight seasons, so all they really
need to do is stay mostly healthy and please, for
the love of God, not start on three every single season.
(07:18):
Can we just have a normal September and not dig
a hole immediately? I don't know, So I don't know
if we can bet on them to make the playoffs.
I think you're right time to point out that the
plus number has been a good bet to make at
the start of the year because they usually dig themselves
a hole, and if anything, you can just bet plus
on the other side and just be done. I got
some money either way. Go ahead, Bengals, do your thing.
(07:39):
I need to worry about it anymore. To me, Burrow belongs. Look,
we named off Chiefs Bill's Ravens. For most people, that
would be your top three quarterbacks in the NFL. For me,
Joe Burrow is in that group with those three, not
necessarily as the fourth option. If you have a star
quarterback that's that good, you're in the playof And in
(08:00):
the AFC, I have a lot more teams that I'm
pretty comfortable leaving out of the mix in the NFC.
I would not say put them in as easily, but
I kind of needed teams frankly in the AFC, so
I'm happy to put the Bengals as an option.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Here. By the way, a little preview for a future
episode that we're doing later this week are Top ten Quarterbacks,
which a lot of people talking about quarterbacks this week
and their top ten lists, and Simon and I do
it every year, but we also incorporate a lot about
quarterbacks that we'd want to be betting on or that
we'd be afraid to be betting against. At the end
(08:35):
of the game, you say Joe Burrow would be, you know,
top four, Brandon, I don't disagree. One of us on
this podcast right now had Joe Burrow outside his top five.
That's how down he is on Joe Burrow. The thing
about the Bengals, and I agree with you like I
am all in on Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow's biggest issues
(08:58):
Sometimes in this offensive line is terrible, but the issue
is Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow likes to play hero ball.
He will hold the ball too long with a bad
offensive line and continue to try to make plays which
puts himself in trouble physically, and also make sure that
he gets a lot more sacks than any other quarterback,
(09:20):
which is a constant problem. So it can't all be
on the offensive line, it can't all be on the defense.
And as good as Joe Burrow is, he has made
catastrophic mistakes in inopportune moments, either by taking sacks or
throwing bad balls when he's under pressure. So I understand
Simon's position. I'm just choosing to believe that they have
(09:42):
to get it right and that this will be the year,
and that two teams will come out of the AFC North,
and I don't think it's going to be all right.
And I do think it's going to be the Bengals
and the Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back next one. Simon,
(10:03):
you and I both have the Texans back in the playoffs.
Brandon does not. I know why I believe it. Tell
me why you believe it?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Just the defense. Like to me, they're so talented with
the coaching. It's in that division that there's they're the
only team with something legit great. All the other teams
have questions, right, I have so many questions about Jacksonville.
I mean, hell, we'll get into Houston here. We have
questions about the offensive line like that. That's what we're
freaked out about it. Is CJ gonna take another step
because last year we all agree he just didn't play
(10:37):
up to the level we were expecting after his rookie season.
So if they're in any other division, chat, I probably
would be more down on them because they're in that division.
Last year, they shouldn't have won it, and they just
all these other teams fall apart, and they just kept
turning it out because they have such good coaching, such
good defense. It just keeps them above water. So to me,
I'm with you. I was trying to force in the Titans.
(10:58):
You know how much I love the Titans is up
coming here, But I'm just trying to be realistic here.
And I know people put a hard earn money on
this bet. So to me, if I'm going to go
with a side, I got to go with Houston making
of that division, you know.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Yeah, I think in the end, I was really impressed
with CJ. Stroud and how he played in the playoffs,
even with a terrible offensive line. And if they can
recognize how to improve that offensive line just a little
bit and he can get a little bit better at
getting rid of the ball quickly and improve his QB
(11:35):
pressure rate in which sometimes he was just taking sacks
I think because he was trying to make a play
and it was scrambling and in vulnerable positions so soon
after the ball was snapped. They are legitimately just the
more talented team. He's a more talented quarterback than anyone
else in the division. Their defense is really fantastic. I
(11:58):
think they've got the moors ablished coach than any other
team in the division. So it was a toss up
between Texans and the team that Brandon liked. Brandon, go
ahead and tell us who you think will make it
instead of the Texans.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
So for me, this really is a bet against the Texans.
Like I just I found last year's team hard to inspire.
They finished with a zero point differential on the season.
The defense was great, no doubt. On paper, the Texans
defense is the best unit in the division. It's a
terrible division. Like Simon said, if we had other options here,
it'd be a lot easier. I'm not excited or truly
(12:36):
about the option out to give you, but I'm following
the rules. I can't just knock the whole division out.
I don't believe in the Texans. I'm not there yet.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
On the Titans.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
I think they'll be better. I like the reasons you
like them, Simon, just I'm not ready to go better
enough to win the division. I am going to reluctantly
take the Jacksonville Jaguars. And part of the case here
is again looking at defense, Simon, the Texans, I thought,
maybe we're a top three defense last year on paper,
(13:04):
could be the number one defense this year. Defense is
really unpredictable and not sticky season. This season, I can
predict pretty consistently who the top offenses are, Like, we
can do the top offenses pod and it's gonna be
name the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,
Joe Burr like elite quarterbacks or elite year to year
and have elite offenses. Defense is a lot more Malley
(13:27):
about changes a lot more so. I agree the Bengals
defense was a bottom five defense last year, but historically
there's a decent chance that they go from like twenty
eighth to twenty second, and just that amount of difference,
even just accidentally getting a little better matters when the
offense is that good. With Houston, it's the other way
if you fall from second or third to eighth and
(13:48):
you're still a pretty good defense. Well, if the offense
didn't improve a bunch, that's a pretty big drop off.
And so to me, I'm gonna like default to offense
feeling better. So I have the the Texans falling down,
I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You hear the
excitement in my voice right that the pick here is
Liam Cohen. And I hope that Liam Cohen can do
(14:10):
with Trevor Lawrence what he's done at pass stops. I
think especially Brian Thomas looks like the next just stud receiver.
And now I don't even know what he's going to
be yet, But whatever Travis Hunter is, maybe it's a
little boost at receiver, maybe it's a little boost on defense.
The area of where he can help them, I'm not
sure yet, but I do believe in his talent what
(14:32):
he can do there, and I like the coaching changes
that they made. I think there's a lot of low
hanging fruit from the team. I can see a world
where with Liam Cohen, with these receivers, could Trevor Lawrence
be the best quarterback in this division. I think that's
a very possible world out there. The talent is there.
(14:52):
It's not gonna be cam Ward yet, It's not gonna
be whatever Indianapolis has, Like, I never consider them because
I can't even get on board with who their quarterback is.
Could it be Trevor Lawrence? Could it be nine and
eight or ten and seven? That's probably enough in this division.
Houston's offensive line I think got worse even than it
was last year with Laramy Tunsel gone. They might be
(15:13):
the worst offensive line in the league. And that's another
more predictable thing. Usually I'm kind of just taking the unpredictable.
With Jacksonville, I don't really know what I'm getting, but
there's plenty of talent there. There's a lot of talent
on defense, even if it hasn't been good yet. Maybe
a new coordinator, maybe some new plans can get things
going there. Just give Jacksonville a chance because I got
(15:33):
to pick somebody in the division. That's the case.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, I think it really comes down to which quarterback
do you believe in? Right and CJ. Stroud now two
years in a row, playoff victories in each year, division
titles in each year, even with a dreadful offensive line.
Trevor Lawrence, third coach, in five years, really only one
good season, even on the field when he's been healthy,
(16:00):
consistently missing touch passes in the red zone, consistently being inaccurate,
not making the big plays. I am not willing to
bet on his unpredictability versus c J. Stroud's upside to
me and Simon, you're with me, Simon and I are together.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, And it also feels like we're all gonna look
at the ind of the here and be like Daniel
Jones the Colts, they won this division. We should have known.
So that's I'm with Brandon. This feels like a really
stupid division. So I get why he's going upside. I
just I'm playing it safe. As we all are here
in the AFC. It just feels like we're in an
era where it's very top heavy in both divisions, where
the best are truly the best, and then there's the
(16:40):
rest that are just trying to make into that little group.
So the Texans, I'm with you. There's a lot of questions,
but man, is this division just gross?
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Yeah? That was sort of It came down to Houston
and Jacksonville for me, and it was a flip of
a coin. Last year's Wild Cards, Chargers, Broncos, Steelers. Brandon
and I have the Chargers back in Denver and Pittsburgh out.
Simon has the opposite Denver and Pittsburgh in Chargers out. Uh, Simon,
(17:12):
I want you to go first, explain why you like
Denver and why you like Pittsburgh and why you don't
like the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Yeah, really really boring. Once again, just went back to
it where it's the coaching. I feel like that makes
such a big difference. And we saw last year where
you know, Pittsburgh and Denver pretty shocking to see them
make runs where Pittsburgh did it with Justin Fields and
Russell Wilson, Like that's pretty incredible. And the fact that
(17:41):
you know it's a team that just feels like this
is their run, right all the they have all these guys,
all these veteran players that kind of know this is it.
I mean, obviously what's going on with TJ. Watt's a
big difference here. Like if we're doing this later and
I knew he was already gone and traded, probably would
be a difference maker because he is that and to
that defense. Me and Chat I talk all the time
about the splits when he plays for them when he
(18:03):
doesn't play for them. But just looking at this team
on paper, I just I just trust the coach like
he just always finds to make it work. And that's
such a big deal in AFC. And then same with Denver.
It's like Denver another team that might have a top
five defense, top three offensive line. Bon Knicks, that might
have been the peak what we saw last season. Like
(18:24):
he's old as shit, I get it, but that peak
was pretty good, Like he kept improving. That's what you
want to see with these rookies. The NFL season is
so long and it's such a mental game. And that
was so impressive about Jane Daniels and Bo Knicks is
that you know a lot of their rookies they hit
that rookie wall at some point. These guys broke through it.
They kept improving. Their teams didn't make the playoffs. So
(18:46):
with Denver, it's just really about the coaching and the
fact that they've just drafted so well and they just
have a great team there. So I again I wanted
to take them out like I like putting in new teams.
It's just who are these other teams I trust more
than those two teams, Like I just when you're talking
about the head coaching, those two guys are Hall of famers.
It's tough for me to trust the coach in Cincinnati
rather than the coaching of Pittsburgh and Denver. So that's
(19:09):
where it's like it gets really hazy there at that
final spot putting in these wild card rounds.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Brandon, Yeah, to me, this is really with these teams,
especially two of them, it's about floor versus ceiling. And
with Pittsburgh and Denver, I can't get to a spot
where I'm excited about a ceiling being really above like
ten wins. And I know ten wins gets you to
the playoffs, but ten wins is a win or two
wins away from missing the playoffs. And I don't think
(19:35):
Pittsburgh and Denver are gonna be bad teams. But like Pittsburgh,
we know with Tomlin the five hundred streak, right, we
know that every year we talk about the five hundred streak.
What we don't talk about is they've had ten wins
our the last six of the last seven seasons. So
that is a hard cap on a ceiling for a
team that like, Okay, you blow one or two games
(19:56):
and now you're five hundred and now you're out of
the playoffs. And we got Aaron Tja Watt, Cam Hayward
probably maybe the three best most important players on the team,
certainly up on the list, all ancient in football years,
and Aaron Rodgers fourteen to twenty one the last three
years as a starter. I just feel like the ceiling
(20:16):
is capped there. And I don't like Aaron Rodgers fit
with Arthur Smith offense at all. So I don't know
how that's going to go. I don't know how it
sets up, but we've seen this not go well with
Rodgers recently. With Denver, to me as just a pile
of red flags. I talk about not believing in defense
from year to year. Denver was top five defense and
special teams last year, and both of those scream regression
(20:38):
to the mean. And if it's even a little bit
Denver's offense, I don't believe in much at all. I'm
not a Bonex guy, never been a Bonex guy. I
think last year probably was the best will get if
the defense is worse. Now you're starting with a ball
maybe fifteen yards further back on the field, and now
Bow's gotta actually makes some throws right now, he's gonna
actually do the thing and be quarterback, not just be
(20:59):
game manager. And I think the offense gets worse as
the defense gets worse. I don't believe in that coaching
staff quite as much. I don't believe advanced Joseph on
defense to have them be that incredible again. And in
both teams cases, Pittsburgh and Denver, they're both in tough
divisions too, right, They're both in divisions where each of
us has two other teams in Pittsburgh's division in the playoffs. Well,
(21:21):
I guess Simon has Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but tough divisions,
there certainly are three clearer playoff contenders Chargers with the
other division as well, so I think two. You know,
that's like if you look at Chiefs Chargers or Ravens Bengals,
that might be three losses already right there for either
one of these teams as well. So to me, the
(21:42):
Chargers are not a ton different on the floor ceiling thing.
The difference is, I'm gonna come back to the quarterback again,
justin Herbert and no we even seen it long enough,
but we saw him make a better leap in the
second half of the season, we saw him more passing
as they kind of open up the offense a little bit.
They added backed in on the line. They're gonna get
year two of Lad McConkey. And again here's ceiling versus floor.
(22:05):
We're talking about the scene capped with Tomlin and with
the Broncos. Jim Harbaugh's floor to me, in five seasons
in the NFL, he's never finished below five hundred either.
But he's at eleven wins or more four of the
five seasons, and most of those are in the sixteen
game seasons, right, So eleven and five are better. I'm
not excited about the Chargers. I don't think I want
a Super Bowl ticket on the Chargers, but justin Herbert
(22:28):
to me has the talent to maybe push into that
top four or five quarterback range if he ever pulls
it together. We're running out of time here, but I
can see a floor and get excited about the ceiling,
and I rather have that delta pushing up than the
other two teams where the delta seems down to me.
So I have Chargers in with the high floor and
(22:48):
the Steelers and the who am I talking about the
Steelers In the Broncos I have out with the cap ceiling.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
You're not worried about regressing that from Chargers defense, Yeah,
I am really exceeded what they should have. You can
agree with that.
Speaker 3 (23:04):
That was incredible the talent on certainly of these three teams,
there's no question which defense I feel least good about
going into the season. It just again kind of fitting
in my theme here, especially in the AFC. I don't
feel great about a lot of teams in the conference.
I'm gonna trust the quarterback and the offenses that I
feel good about. I'm basically saying I trust my ability
(23:27):
to evaluate offense better than I trust my ability to
evaluate defense. Defense is just gonna push toward the middle,
and I trust. Yeah. I'm taking what might just be
the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and put them
in the playoffs, and so I don't mind doing that.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
In the AFC, I cannot disagree with any of the
analysis from Brandon. It's why I have the Chargers in.
I'm betting on the better quarterback, Simon. We love Sean Payton.
He's a great coach to bet on, but so is
Jim Harby. And there were games last year, especially a
(24:01):
game between the two of them where Harbaugh just out
coached Sean Payton and won a game. Because of that,
I'm going to bet on Harbaugh. I'm gonna bet on Herbert.
I'm not going to bet on bow Knicks. That's really
what it's coming down to. And I think Aaron Rodgers
has just been fading. He's just not that good of
a quarterback anymore. So that's why I ultimately decided on
Cincinnati in that division instead of Pittsburgh. The summarize, we've
(24:24):
all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo really going out on
Alledge with those picks. The summarize, we've all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo,
really going out on Alledge with those picks. My next
three Houston Chargers, Cincinnati, Simon, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Brandon Chargers, Jacksonville, Cincinnati,
(24:56):
one more spot for each of us. Brandon and Chad agree.
Mike Rabel New England Patriots, and I will kick it
off and say a I love Rabel. I think is
an instant difference maker. I think he can make this
team two to three games better. I like that they
(25:18):
drafted high for the offensive line. They've nominally improved the
receiving corps. Drake May showed enough last year that when
he had no webs in weapons, he had moxie and
an ability to move the ball and defensively, this team
is also improving, so you know it. It's not commanders like,
(25:43):
but to me, it is Commander's light. So that's why
I liked the Patriots. Brandon back me up.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Yeah, I mean, I think you made the case. I
agree with all that. I love building in the trenches,
Will Campbell, Morgan, Moses, Scared Bradbury. This was probably the
worst line in the league last year. This could be
towards the league average line once they kind of jel
all and get used to things. Drake May I am
very excited about. I think there is a world where
Drake May is what we think about last season into
(26:16):
the year. CJ. Stroud, what we think about maybe when
we've done with Trevor Lawrence, where we bump him up
into like the eighth spot, you know, that young quarterback
that makes the leap. I think Drake May looked really
good last year, especially given the context of terrible blocking,
no real weapons, and he still played really good football.
I frankly don't love long term the Vrabel and Josh
(26:37):
McDaniel's thing. I'm less excited about the future five years
from now about Drake May, but I think in the
immediate future, this again is a ceiling floor thing. I
think they had a lot of floor. They increased the
offensive line on defense, they get Milton Williams, they get
Harold Landry, Carlton Davis, the best corner in the market.
I think Davis and Christian Gonzalez could give them maybe
(26:59):
the best corners in the league if things turn out
well there. So I think just raising the floor by saying, Okay,
let's just get some guys, get some guys who can
actually play football for us, and give us a chance.
The only bumber here, Chad, is that everyone else thinks
this too. Like the Patriots, there's no value on betting
them to do anything because what are they favored in
(27:19):
like eleven games already going into the year when they
were terrible last year. So I don't know. I wonder
if I ended up swerving on this, just trying to
find value somewhere else because there's really no way to
bet this right now because everyone's already in the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Well, simon giving you an option, right here lay it
on us. Who's your seventh team?
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Well, I will say to the Patriots, just what you
guys talk about physical dead on arrival. Everyone's just in
on it because they have an easy schedule. The Vrabel bump,
Drake may your two jump, I get it. I didn't
pick them obviously, because to me, it's it's gonna come
down to I trust coaches that are in new spots
like Vrabel, that are talented, but with a veteran quarterback
(28:01):
that I can trust as well. And that's why I
ended up on Vegas, and I'm gonna save it because
there's a lot of data to back it up. I want,
I want to dive more into it. But Gino Smith
splits between outdoors and indoors is massive, and going from
Seattle to Vegas, it's gonna be a big deal for him,
and especially in that offense where you know, to me,
(28:23):
it's gonna be a really old school what Pete Carroll
wants to do with the Marshaun Lynch Russell Wilson type
of style. Right, They're gonna be a run heavy team
with gent and I love Gino Smith aspect of it,
so I'm the hardest part is trying to find the
last place team that makes the jump. Like, that's what
I'm looking for here, because we always know that randomly happens.
I don't know. I don't know why I ended up
(28:45):
on Vegas. It really again, I was looking at Tennessee,
but I was just like, man, this just feels like
the type of spot that like, we're not not overlooking
that we kind of are right. It's Pete Carroll on
the Raiders with Gino Smith. It's not sexy, it's not fun,
it's not being talked about really by now media. So
that's why it just they feel like the perfect under
the radar team that sneaks in there in that final
(29:05):
seventh spot. But again, get I get the Patriots love,
they got the schedule. They obviously have the talent you
think across the board if their quarterback takes that year
to jump, but that's the big question, right, So to me,
I'm playing it safe here, going to betteran quarterback. And
what I think is gonna be a big deal going
from Seattle to an indoor eight nine games out of
the year. It's gonna be a big deal for Gino.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Well, you can be right, that's a sneaky smart player
that the Raiders might have made to give themselves a
little bit of a higher floor with a coach who
is seventy something years old and might not have that
many years, so you want to take advantage of what
he's trying to build there as quickly as you can.
NFC is interesting because we all agree on two returning
(29:47):
teams of the seven that can make the playoffs, and
it's not teams that you would expect. We agree on
Philadelphia in Green Bay, and we agree on a third
team that missed the playoffs last year in San Francisco.
Before we get into anything quick, yes or no? Do
(30:08):
we all agree San Francisco could end up being the
number one seed in the NFC? Simon, Yes or no?
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Yes, just because of schedule, Brandon.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Yes, they're my one super Bowl ticket right now.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Chad. Yes, they are one of my two super Bowl
tickets right now. Okay, that leaves four more teams. We
don't even agree on whether or not last year's number
one seed will make it. Chad, Chad, I'm getting too
used to referring to myself in the third person. Simon
(30:45):
and I agree that Detroit is in I will say
they were one of my last teams in Brandon. You
like Detroit to miss, so explain yourself.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Yeah, I just I love to bet on fading. The
brain drain on teams, and the brain drain coming in
Detroit is going to be huge. Everyone's gonna be talking
about it, Ben Johnson, and we're gonna come back to
him in a bed. I know, but Ben Johnson out
the door. We haven't seen what this offense is gonna
look like without his play calling, we haven't seen. Everyone
loves Dan Campbell's aggressiveness. Okay, are we sure we love
(31:18):
it when we don't get Ben Johnson's play calling with
the aggressiveness, We're sure that we love that version of
his aggression. You know, we've seen coaches over the years
where that aggression runs out and it suddenly doesn't work anymore.
We've seen Jared Goff without Ben Johnson, without Sean McVay,
be a very mediocre to bad quarterback, and we saw
him in this Lions team not look good until Ben
(31:41):
Johnson started making the calls. Aaron Glenn on defense really
surprised me las year. I didn't give them enough credit.
That defense really overperformed and then and I think everyone
loves to revision his history and say the Lions had
the year from hell because they had all the injuries
at the end of the season. They certainly did, but
I thought it was a Lion's year for like three
fourths of the season. I thought it was the Lions
(32:01):
year that they were the team that, man, everything is perfect,
They're going to be the Super Bowl team this year.
And so you get both sides. Both of those count
I do like for them. DJ Reid I think is
a really nice addition for them with Terry and Arnold.
So I think actually Detroit's defense could be better maybe
than they were last year. They're getting Aden Hutchinson back.
(32:22):
He was probably the defensive player of the year until
he got hurt. So it's yeah, it's not a team
that I'm like super loving to fade because it's a
very talented roster. But I think the defense can be
a little better, but the offensive line gets worse. Frank
Raig now is a really big loss for them. The
splits with him playing and not playing is a big deal.
And then you take the play calling away, you make
(32:44):
Goff a little bit worse, and now I think you
just have like a round a league average offense and defense,
maybe even slightly above average on both. But the NFC
is tough. I could see this team being like a
nine win team and still missing the playoffs, especially in
a very tough division. So you know, just a team
that when you lose Ben Johnson, lose Aaron gly and
(33:05):
lose Frank rag Now, like that's coaching an offensive line,
that's my stick, Like that's my thing. So if you're
going to lose that much drain in those areas, it
has to be a team I'm out on.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
Yeah. Look, those are all the reasons why I potentially
left them out. Ultimately decided that's downgrading a little bit
too much given how high their ceiling was last year. Simon,
you're with me, explain for the both of us.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Detroit, it's still gonna be that Detroit offense, right. I
do think they'll take a step back. They obviously won't
be the one seed, but could they still steal this
division somehow or make the wild court. I think that
will because they have just so much talent. And to me,
it's it's what you just talked about. The let's speakin
in the end. Like their window, we know football's window
is two to three years usually, and then you kind
of have to re remake who you are, like you
(33:57):
have to become a whole new team and build out
throughout the draft. And they've drafted so well that maybe
they have another year or two to do it. But
I'm with you, guys, like I was looking forward to
betting them on the division last year, looking forward to
betting them to potentially WINNFC. I didn't do any Super
Bowl futures. Me and Chat talked about. I just didn't think.
I thought just something about the fact that it's Detroit
(34:18):
and it's golf. I was like, there's some something's gonna
go awry here, and sure enough, pick six later against
Washington it happened. So it's it's a tough spot with Detroit. Chat.
I think me and you feel the same way, where
we know the possibility them falling off the cliff is
real because football is so dependent on coaching. But man,
you just when you break it down, it's like the
(34:39):
talent's there. The question, to the end of the day
will be is that new offensive line they're building is
it gonna work? Because they've had some major departures and
we talk agnaisma about it, but it's such an important
cog to the NFL machine, that offensive line. So to me,
that ended U might being the Achilles Seal of this team.
But to not make the playoffs, Wow, that's that's a
nice that's a nice plus number. Brandon. Do you remember
(35:00):
the number was on that the bet Detroit not making
the playoffs?
Speaker 1 (35:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (35:02):
No, because I bet you that's what plus two hundred
you think plus two fifty at least, right?
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah. I haven't seen the number in recent times in
the debt of July here in the Dungeons in North Dakota.
But yeah, it's definitely a nice plus number because you know,
if you're picking the one seed to miss out the
following season, you're gonna get a number on that. To me.
I know we talked about like the Super Bowl losers curse,
who's that team that's going to fall off from last year?
They didn't make the Super Bowl, they didn't win a
(35:29):
playoff game. But I think Detroit is that team this year.
I think they're the team that has the weight of
what last year was and what this year isn't anymore
coming back to them. And I think partly it's because
the division is so strong.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Well, look, we can talk about the division, because that's
where we also have some discrepancies. The one thing I'll add, Simon,
you talked about offensive line, Brandon, you mentioned Frank Ragnow.
They also lost Kevin Zeitdler, who was one of the
best guards in football and maybe huge impact on their
ability to run the ball and convert so frequently on
(36:06):
fourth down. So I do think that's an I think
the weight of expectations and Brandon, I think that's a
great way to frame it. You talk about that Super
Bowl hangover for the team that lost, they feel the
same weight, like they feel they should have been there
to not get there for a second year in a row.
The San Francisco loss a couple of years ago I
think was inspiring. The one last year was a little
(36:28):
bit deflating. The rest of the NSC North is interesting.
I've got the Bears, Brandon, You've got the Bears in Minnesota. Simon,
You've only got Detroit. I will say for the Bears, obviously,
what's that I also have green Bay, right, you have
green Bay. I have Detroit, Chicago and green Bay. Brandon,
(36:51):
hash Chicago, Minnesota and green Bay. Simon, you have green
Bay and Detroit. I say this is an unbiased way
as possible. Everything the Lions lost for Ben Johnson, the
Bears are getting. I believe that their offense, they are
peaked at skill positions. They made their offensive line into
(37:14):
what I believe can at least be a top five
or top ten offensive line. The biggest challenge is going
to be what have they done to improve their pass rush?
Not as much as you like as a fan, but
I like what they did offensively enough for them to
make the playoffs. Brandon, you've explained why you're out on Detroit.
(37:35):
Explain Minnesota with a touch of a compliment to what
I said about the Bears.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, I mean with the Bears, really it's the same
thing as the Lions. Literally it's Ben Johnson, but it's
the same points. I believe in investing in the lines,
winning in the trenches, and winning with good coaching. I
think those are two edges as a better especially in
the futures market, that a big edge on. And I
think what the Lions lost, quite literally was what the
(38:05):
Bears gained here with Ben Johnson and what Caleb Williams
year two should look like with him, but also investing
in that offensive line. I'm never gonna not like what
you did if you go and get Joe Thoney and
Drew Dolloman and Jonathan Jackson Grady Jarrett on defense, Like
if you're bringing all the boys in the middle around
the football, I'm gonna like what you did. So what
(38:25):
Detroit didn't do that I didn't like is what the
Bears did do And frankly, it's kind of what the
Vikings did as well. The Vikings get back Christian darrisaw
him and Brian O'Neal, I think are one of the
better tackle combos in the league. On the offensive line,
Darris only played six and a half games last year,
but then they rebuilt the interior of the line with
what basically was a pretty good Colts interior of the
(38:46):
line in the last couple of years when healthy. They
also go out and get Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave
as swings in the defensive line, adding to what was
already really talented defense. Now this was a defense that
was really really good. And by my own thing I've
said just half an hour ago, shouldn't I be weary
that won't they fall back to the earth? I am
(39:06):
wary of that. I think Brian floor's defense. We've seen
that within the season before, even where they kind of
get found out a little bit. The corners are still
pretty weak on this team. Just to me, this is
a high floor formula. We have a great offensive line,
a ton of weapons on offense, a really good defense
that may not be number two, but we know Flores
(39:27):
gets defenses perform at a top ten level year after
year when he has some talent there. The trenches are good,
the coaching is good. There's just a lot to believe in.
And I haven't said the one name that you maybe
don't believe in, which is JJ McCarthy. We don't know
about JJ McCarthy, but we didn't know about Sam Donald
last year either, And frankly, we had all the reasons
(39:49):
to not believe in Sam Donald. Why can't JJ McCarthy
be as good as Sam Donald? Why can't he be
as good as what Jared Goff was with a good
play caller. Why can't JJ McCarthy be better than Sam Darnald.
I don't know. With this blocking and I think two,
I'm excited as a Vikings fan, and I will say
normally that would make me bet against Minnesota, not for them.
So don't take that with too much a grain of salt,
(40:10):
but I'm excited to see what can this offensive do
with a quarterback that can move a little bit. That's
one thing that koc has not had is a guy
that can move out of the pocket create a little
bit with his legs. I think McCarthy gives them a
new dimension to the offense they haven't had with the weapons,
with the run game that they found last season, with
the line, I think there's there are a lot of
(40:32):
outs for Minnesota to still be good. I know that
it all says fourteen and three expected wins like eleven wins.
They were nine to one in all the one score games.
We know all the reasons that they should be worse
this year. This is a team that I traditionally would
choose to be out on. I'm kind of purposefully swerving
and saying, Okay, I think they can be worse than
(40:53):
that record. They were not that good last year, but
I think they could be a better team this year
and still have a a floor in a structure that
puts them in the mixing the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
All right, Simon, anti Bears, anti Vikings, explain yourself.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
Yeah, the Vikings one's pretty easy. It just you have
to pick some teams that made it last year to
miss everything he just highlighted, is it's all red flags.
Like me and you were so down on them coming
to the season. It was pretty simple. We just didn't
believe Sam Darnold, and he outperformed anybody's watle it's expectations
in all those fourth quarters, any game that was tight,
the other team, Wilton and he always stepped up and
(41:32):
eventually it ran out like we saw in that Detroit
then the Rams game, it just he had a peak
and then eventually it just came crashing down. So it's
all there, Like that defense obviously overperformed because they were
so well coached in Minnesota. But it's another thing. It's
the unknown quarterback. So yeah, they could potentially be a
team to make it. But betting odds, going off past
(41:53):
history and one score wins, we see it fluctuates and
it is depending on coaching. Like coaching can be so good,
you can rise above it. We've seen Pittsburgh door for years,
but it's unlikely just in your division, it's so brutally tough,
Like all these teams are so talented, so well coached
and that's where it's tough. With Chicago, Chad. You have
an offensive coordinator coming in doing his first coaching job
(42:15):
in the NFL. Year one. We've seen a timetime again.
It could be beautiful for five six weeks and then
just crash and burn. One little thing goes wrong, he
loses the locker room, whatever it may be, it could
be really bad. We don't know what type of coaching
style he has yet. We know he's a psycho like
we've seen him talk and he's all in, I love it.
Like he's an exact type of coach you want perfectionists,
(42:38):
makes hi run the same play ten times until they
run the exact way he wants it. That's what you
need in the NFL. You need someone like that to
that pays dunch and every little detail so kind of work.
If they win, hell yeah. But if it goes bad,
we've seen in Chicago it goes really bad because it's
just so much weight on that team in that city
and it's a first year head coach. So with me
and them, it's it was really tough because I took
(42:59):
the Detroit over them. That was like I was in
between Chicago Detroit because I have green Bay in the
winning the division, you know, if I'm betting wise, So
that's where he just came down to. It was just tough.
Am I really going to take Chicago year one? To me? I?
Me and you talk about a little bit, chat. I
just think this is another growing year for Caleb Williams.
I would be so happy if they made it right,
they string together a couple of those one score wins, right,
(43:21):
huge jump because the offensive line, the coaching staff, no
one to be shocked Chicago making It's just unlikely because
it's just such a tough division.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
We both have, Simon, You and I both have Dallas In.
Uh none of us have the commanders in.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
It's interesting, right, Yeah, This just feels like a natural
regression regression for defenses, figuring out how to stop Jadan Daniels,
the regression on fourth down conversions, the way he plays.
Who knows the injury possibilities are just higher that defense.
Since Brandon pointed out it is inconsistent year to year.
(44:03):
Last year they were better than expected. Did they do
anything to get that much better during the offseason? Simon,
you and I both like Dallas In. I like it
more because their defense is going to be healthier and
they have Dac back. Can you give a little bit
of insight because I want to do this one quickly
because we got a lot still to get through, but
(44:23):
a little bit of insight on Dallas.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Yeah, And I'll save all of for when we do
divisional talks with Dallas, because you know how I feel
about them. But it really is that simple, as Chad
said it, It's just a team that's coming off a
down year. They're going to have their quarterback back, have
a number two receiver in pickings. That's a big upgrade.
I think the offense line will be better because they
were so young last year. They should have a running game.
Just that defense, like that defense is a ton of talent.
They just simply could not stop the run. And they
(44:48):
feel like they've addressed that here in this offseason. So
for me, that was easy one. With Washington, I don't
know if we're all in agreement, but it's kind of
what Chad said, right, It's the aggression of Jade and
Daniels and just that defense, Like they have not improved
that defense, it's in any way, and they just overachieved
in so many ways. And we talked about that Chicago game.
Felt could flipped their season. They felt like they could
have gone either way. Right, they lose that game, Chicago,
(45:10):
and it goes the other way, they win it, they
go on the up and up. Chicago's got the other way, right,
chicaganna win another game for like five six weeks after
that loss to Washington. So, yeah, that's Washington. You're playing
with house money. Like those fans, they don't care what
we're saying right now. They believe in Jad and Dana's
They think they have the greatest quarterback ever. And we
all agree it's highly talented. But eighty percent of fourth down,
(45:31):
it's just it's not it's disagression. It's impossible. Like he
maybe is neo he's gonna break the matrix. But we've
seen the NFL, these guys getting paid millions and millions
of dollars. They will figure it out. They always do.
Like doesn't matter how great you are, they will find
your weakness and they will attack it after six months
of grinding tape in the offseason. So yeah, Brandon, where
(45:54):
we at with Washington in the same boat as me
and Chad. I can't believe all three of us have
them out.
Speaker 3 (45:59):
Yeah, I very similar. I think the fourth down conversion
rate is just crazy outlier and has to come down.
I think two this is this year's Houston. This is
the hype team with the young quarterback that everyone's excited about.
And I think they got a little bit of their
own excitement too. We see a team each year that's like,
you know what, we're one or two pieces away, So
what do they do rather than going out and building
(46:20):
the roster the right way. Washington wasn't supposed to be
this good last year. They're supposed to be slowly building up,
and they're like, oh no, we're gonna go get Deebo,
who hasn't been good for a couple of years anyways.
And we're gonna get Laromie Tunsel, who's gonna fix our
whole offensive line. But oh wait, there's still four other
guys on the line, and their line get really found
out as the season went on last year too. So
I think we see those teams that make the big
(46:42):
splash moves and everyone's excited, we already had a good team,
now we had these two stars onto the team. They
I think are the team that finished nine to one
in games under a touchdown, including four straight to make
the playoffs, then Tampa in the playoffs, and then frankly
right place, right time to take advantage of the Detroit
defense that just had nobody left. In the NBA, we
(47:05):
see teams make the conference finals and then get high
on their own juice and be like, oh, here we are.
You know, the Atlanta Hawks did it. The Portland Trail
Blazers did it. We see year after year and they're like, Okay,
we're all on this core now, and it turns out
that was the best it got with that group. You
gotta still kind of pivot and go somewhere. Growth isn't linear,
So I think Washington, I'm not out on Jaden. I
(47:26):
just need the rest of the team to come with it.
I think the rest of the team's going to take
some work. Dallas, I'm less excited. But if you like Dallas,
I think Parsons Defensive Player of the Year is a
good way to invest in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (47:38):
I like that growth isn't linear, all right. We all
like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco. We all have very
different choices for winners of the NFC South. I like Atlanta,
Simon likes Tampa Bay, Brandon Lakes Carolina. Let's think about
that as we go into sort of figuring out what
(47:59):
our final equation looks like. Brandon and Simon, you guys
agree that your final team in the playoffs is the
Los Angeles Rams. I'll let you start, Brandon. You have
(48:20):
the Rams going in, So your final seven I believe
would be Rams, Bears, Bikings, Eagles, Green Bay, San Francisco,
and Carolina.
Speaker 3 (48:39):
Yes, why the Rams? Yeah? I think just with the Rams.
They had a ton of injuries last year and still
made the playoffs. Anyway, Now they get DeVonta Adams and
replacement for Coup Devanta Adams plus Puka, I think can
be just a really really good receiving corps. The offensive
line also had a ton of injuries last year. Aleric
(48:59):
Jackson and left tackle missed the first two games. Steve
Avlo was hurt a lot of the season. Rob Havinstan
was hurt. I think this year you get a better line.
Stafford historically has very much reflected the play of his line,
and frankly so is Sean mcvay's offense. We think of
Sean McVay as this like crazy attacking offense. His offense
goes where the run game goes and when the line
(49:20):
is better, the run game with Karen Ronan is gonna
be better. So I think this offense when healthy, which
we can't just assume they're gonna be healthy. They're not
going to be They're gonna miss some games when you
have Devant Dams and Puka and Stafford, they're gonna miss
a little bit of time. But when healthy, they're gonna
be as good as anyone. We saw that Bills game
last year right where they just looked, you know, they
could put up any points, any score they needed to
(49:42):
the defense. I don't love it, but I think it's
young and improving, heading in the right direction. Matt Stafford
has been my first MVP bet for the season, not
because I'm all in on of the Rams, far from it.
I'm not really believing the team, but if they hit
what they could be, I think this offense, if they're
healthy all year, it could be like a thirteen win team.
(50:02):
And Stafford is a fifty to one MVP ticket is
a ticket worth investing in for once. No brain drain
In Los Angeles, Sean McVay finally didn't lose everybody that
he's ever talked or out of copy with before, so
we just kind of get to run back a team
that was pretty good already. So a lot of options.
I like the other teams in that division as well,
but for now I've got the Rams in Simon.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
Yeah, I just love this Rams team. I like them
more than forty nine ers. I know you guys are
both bigger on the forty nine ers right now, and
I agree for season long, that's fair because we've just
seen this Rams team every year. They feel like they
start slow and then they play catch up second half.
So to me, it's it's understainable why people would be
high in the forty nine ers. But when you break
down the Rams, I just think across the board they
(50:45):
have so much talent and adding Adams to this team
is just insane, Like I can't believe that got him
with Puka, that's just such a nice combo. And you
know their defensive line. I think they're just severely underrated.
Like they're a young, hungry group that we've seen time
time again. If you coach it right, they grew and
they get better. It's a big deal. Last year their
final five to six games, that d Lion got so
(51:05):
much better for that Rams team, they really improved. I
feel like that Bill's game is a turning point for them.
They really figured some stuff out after that. Different combinations,
and I just love the way they played heading especially
in the playoffs, like that Vikings game, that de line
dominated against the Eagles. They're really really talented and dominant.
So yeah, that Rams team, if I'm going to make
one futures bet in NFC, wouldn't be the Eagles. It
(51:26):
would still be this Rams team to win the Super Bowl.
I just think they have the best value. Been there,
done that, right, head coach, quarterback, we talk all the time.
That's such a big deal in football, like knowing you've
already climbed that mountain you won't get phase and those
tough moments in the playoffs. That's a big deal to me.
So yeah, Shanahan, I love them. But man, we've had
some brutal, brutal losses on futures on him with that
(51:47):
f forty nine are seeing to the Super Bowl. So yeah,
just confidence level. I'm all in on this Rams team
this upcoming season.
Speaker 1 (51:52):
I signon, give me your final seven for the NFC.
Speaker 2 (52:00):
So I went Dallas Eagles out of the East. Believe
I Bucks, South, Green Bay, Detroit for the North and
who do I have West? I believe I have the
forty nine ers and just the Rams. So yeah, the
loan division gotta go to the South right with the Bucks.
It's just that that one's such a toss up. I
(52:21):
know a lot of pros just like Brandon here, they
like Panthers, mean and Chad, we drank that kool aid.
I would love for that to work out, But give
it out on this show. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna
play it safe in case people are betting stuff for
giving out here and just go Bucks. It's just I
know they lost, you know, argument in the best office
corodinators in football. But yeah, just we can't stop our
Baker love. We just love Baker on this show.
Speaker 1 (52:42):
All right. I am on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta. Brandon,
one more reminder, Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Chicago,
(53:02):
Minnesota and the Rams love you wild. I mean, that's
what we're given. Everybody's got an option for something with
this one. Brandon Anderson from the Dungeons of North Dakota,
thanks for coming on the podcast and creating this game
(53:23):
that we could play, called Who Will Make the Playoffs
in the NFL. The Favorites will return with our next
episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page with special
guest Rich Reebar talking top ten quarterbacks. Also check it
out with clips and highlights at Real Chad Milman on YouTube.
(53:45):
Download US with Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pause, rate, reviews,
subscribe ups, five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds
you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care
(54:06):
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Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.