September 7, 2022 • 52 mins
Looks like we've made it, folks. NFL Week 1 is upon us, and Action Network experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to preview every game on the NFL slate. Together they go from Thursday Night Football to Monday Night Football, covering all the action from a betting perspective, and giving out their favorite sides along the way. Later this week they'll look to narrow down their top five favorite picks, but first our first episode each week will provide our Foxhole bet of the week, our Simon Says pick, plus Chad's new Executive Decision bet. Lots to like on this Week 1 board, with home 'dogs as far as the eye can see! #herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
(01:30):
I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am joined as I am every single show by
my bff, my companion Mike and padre my co host
Simon Hunter Professional better listen. I'm not gonna lie to you.
(01:50):
Before we started recording today, I was a little nervous.
It's just a different show. It's a it's a different show.
When you are talking about the actual Week one games
to bet on, the stakes are higher, they just are.
Our show is getting bigger, Chad, I mean, it's good
to be back. I mean, it's what the the true
(02:13):
first day of school. I guess you could say, it's
like we're all here ready to go. It's raining the
next two days in the Northeast. That kind of starts
feeling like fall a little bit. Should we do some housekeeping,
some bona fides? Just because how many new listeners are
we gonna have Week one? Everyone's back like we got
our true loyal fans who are the smart ones. They
got all the good numbers that we gave out all summer.
Now the new guys are showing up. The guys who
(02:34):
you know, they don't love us, They just love our
picks because they love winning money. They're back. Also, we
probably should tell everyone our new show dates, right, Chad,
No more Tuesday Thursdays. A lot of people saying we're
ruining their routine. It's part of the business. People adjust
Wednesday's Fridays. It's not that bad. Listen. The show will
come out around eleven pm on Tuesday night and eleven
pm on Thursday night. A lot of behind the scenes
(02:59):
master nation that will bore people about why that has
to happen, But look, that's part of the deal. We're
gonna roll with it. I was thinking of myself. It
feels like the first day of school when I was
doing my ten minute peloton full body stretch this morning.
You're just an old man. As far as bona fides, listen.
For those who don't know, I'll start with myself. I
(03:22):
am the chief Content Officer of the Action Network. The
Action Network covers everything you need in sports betting in
our app, on our website, on our social handles. We
are producing hundreds of pieces of content a week focused
on sports betting, the sports betting experience. Download the app
track your picks. We've tracked north of two hundred and
(03:43):
fifty five million picks in our app. It is a
vital tool for anybody who was fresh to the gambling experience.
I'm kind of a legend in the sports betting media space.
I don't know how much I need to go into
my background. Let's just say I invented it and I've
also written seven books. Sign and go ahead. Chad Millman
is proud of himself. This will be my tent season
(04:06):
being an actual professional better working for a betting syndicate.
I joined Chad. This will be our fourth season again.
I didn't want to be on the show, honestly. When
I reached out the chat, I simply said to him,
can I just send you picks and you can use them.
Just you gotta take more underdogs and they're gotta be
smart underdogs. And Chad was like, talk to me on
the phone. We talked. Next thing, you know, I'm coming
on this show fifteen minutes a week for the first year.
(04:28):
I came on last year when I Matt Mitchell will
blur my face because again, I didn't really want to
be on the show, but it's all worked out, like
this is your four for me and Chad. The show
has grown, it's definitely getting it's definitely different, where like,
you know, we got to target on our back. I
definitely feel that for sure, and it's like, you know,
I don't take it lightly. So this season there's gonna
highs and lows. Just understand, I'm working my ass off
(04:50):
and Chad is obviously trying his best. It's like, we
get it. We want to win too. The goal here
is to make you take ugly dogs. I feel like
that's what me and Chad are really coming known for.
It's been very profitable taking underdogs. So yeah, if you're
new to the show, it's gonna feel weird what we do,
but it will make sense that the season goes along.
As you'll see, there's just these spots in these moments
(05:10):
of these underdogs that are just crazy undervalued. So thanks
for taking a chance on us, and hopefully, like some
of these ugly picks, we're literally about to give in
the next two minutes. Here's how the show breaks down
on Tuesdays, we go through the entire NFL slate. Simon
and I will talk about our early leans. We will
give away a Foxhole bet. That is the bet where
we are in it together. We feel like everyone is
(05:32):
going to be against us. But I want to be
in the foxholl with Simon. He wants to be in
the foxhow with me. Simon will give his Simon says
bet that means bet it right away. I will give
him my executive decision bet because I am an executive
Bet it right away. You can follow all of these
picks follow the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app.
(05:52):
Producer Matt Mitchell will be loading these into the app
every single week um and then on Thursdays we narrow
down the slate. We talk about the games that we
loved to try to come up with a five favorite
that we will enter into a contest in which Simon
and I are going to win boatloads of money. Let's
get to a brother No more dilly dally, you talk
(06:14):
about ugly dogs. Right Thursday Night Football kicking off the
season super Bowl Champs against the consensus Super Bowl favorites.
The Rams are two and a half point home underdogs
higher percentage of bets about the bets and about seventy
of the money coming in on the Buffalo Bills Matt
(06:37):
Mitchell's Bills mafia. This is excruciating for him. What do
you think right off the bat, Simon says, bet the
Rams get it right now, let's do and a half.
Simon do it? We do? What Sciences? What? Chad? A
little fun things going on Downd the scenes. Chad has
(06:58):
his nerds hitting me up now for pick. And they're
really cool about it, they said, because they know I
can't write, like again, I dropped out of college. Your
boy cannot right. Uh. They called me up. They'll say,
can you give us one or two your best bets?
And my favorite bet when I gave right away was
the Rams plus two and a half classic overvalue team
and a Bills team that's the all hyped team, the
(07:18):
super Bowl favorite. Everyone's talking about them. We're getting the
defending Super Bowl champion on a discount and in the
rare position of I don't think people understand what happened
last year with this Bills team, right Everyone just looks
at what they did last year, looks at their record
without thinking themselves, how did they get to that record,
and if you look at their division, they went five
and one. That's great outside their division, six and five,
(07:42):
That's that's what you have to look at, say what
happened outside of the division. Where do they get their wins?
Where they get their losses? This is their wins outside
their division. Last year they won against Washington, they went
against Houston, beat the Chiefs. That's when I got sucked in.
Then they beat New Orleans Carolina in Atlanta. That that
was are outside of their visions wins. They went one
in three against the a FC South. Last year the
(08:04):
Bills outside of their division, their only win was against Houston,
so they lost to the Jaguars, lost of the Colts,
and lost the Tennessee. This is just a classic overvalue
Bills team where who can't deny Josh Allen's probably the
best quarterback in football right now. It's a team game.
So we're getting the all hype team and Bills that
a games should be a pick. It's two and a half.
They're out of their division, they're playing at a conference
(08:25):
against the defending Super Bowl champions against McVeigh who's five
and oh at home. I'm not even at home opening night,
uh their first game. He's five and out his career.
McVeigh has never lost the defending Super Bowl champion at home.
In this position of being a underdog, they cover at
a six percent clip. So again, there's just all these
little trends pointing to it, and Chad knows we love
(08:45):
home dogs. So it's like to me, I was hoping
to get to the three, hoping the public keep betting up.
The books are too smart. They just kept it two
and a half. Just take the two and a half
for my Simon says, but so listen, I love it, um.
While you were talking literally in the first thirty seconds,
I want to explain something. I went to the Action app,
clicked on the game, I pressed on the RAMS plus
(09:07):
two and a half, and then I used this new
technology we have that we integrate with fan Duel, who
is our sponsor. This is not sort of shameless. This
is a cool new tech that we're doing with them.
I clicked on it in the app for Action. It
took me to fan Duel. I made the bet in
about fifteen seconds. It was miraculous. And then I went
(09:28):
and tracted in the Action Network app. So everybody should
be getting an alert that I just made a pet
on the Rams plus two and a half. This whole
slate is full of home dogs and it's gonna make
us sick, and we're gonna have to bet every single
one of them. You can't, you can't not make these bets.
You can't sort of randomly choose. You gotta bet them
(09:48):
all if you want to take advantage of the full opportunity,
which brings me to the next game. Lions plus four
against the Philadelphia Eaggles. The lines have been getting a
lot of love, right You want to bet over six
and a half in the Lions, you gotta pay. That
(10:09):
is a weird world. We're paying minus to bet on
the Lions over. We love their offensive line. Jared Goff
is competent. We love their offensive weapons at skill positions
outside of golf. I am in love with Dan Campbell.
So this team is Detroit. We're gonna kick you in
the teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile
at you. And when you knock us down, we're gonna
(10:31):
get up. And on the way up, we're gonna buy
a knee cap off. All right, We're gonna take your
other knee cap before long, We're there going to be
the last one standing. A lot of hype on this team,
but they covered last year at an enormous rate for
a team that lost as often as they did. His
play calling is uncanny home dog money line taste, but
(10:52):
definitely lines plus four executive decision. How already the choice
between the unthinkable and the impossible exect decision. We've been
tagging this game since May, like when did a week
one lines come out? We've been saying Lions, Lions, Lions,
(11:13):
And this is what's interesting. As much as we've been
talking about and you and I were so immersed in
this stuff, we keep thinking everyone loves the Lions. Money wise,
the bets are on the Lions, but ticket wise the
bets are on the Eagles, So huge discrepancy. You've got
a wise guy trend here. Yeah, it's a little bit
of wise guy money movement. Right, I'm going at home
(11:34):
dog Eagles. We already talked about there. I mean we
just talked about the Bills being the hype team. I mean,
there is there a more hyped up team right now
than the Eagles than not of movement. Their line has
had this just last month. Uh, it's been been heavy,
and we talked about if you already missed the bets
on the Eagles that we were given out. We thought,
this is a nice time. You just wait and let
(11:55):
them maybe lose this game or lose the next game,
go one on one to start the season or oh
and two, and then you get good value on this
Egos team, where I do think this Egos team is
crazy talented. The early weeks here, these teams are not formed.
It's just chaos, and that's what me and Chad we're
kind of gonna get betting on a lot of chaos
early on here. And these are, like Chad just talked about,
evening match teams where I think they're both ascending in
(12:17):
the right direction. No doubt the Eagles have more talent
across the board. But the strength of this Detroit team
we already talked about. It's their offensive line. So yeah,
Jared golf five and oh a t s career. Uh
got lucky last year, right, Some people got a little
unlucky if they got the seven and a half not
the eight and a half because the number landed on
eight again gets the forty nine in week one. So
(12:39):
for me, I trust Golf Trust this offense and just
the fact that this number is ballooned up. It should
just be three, like this is a field goal game.
The Egos are clearly the better team, but more than
three points, that's that's a bit rich. So I like
what Chad saying, take the four, you can still get it.
Most people have to take a three and a half,
still love the three and a half, So on with
(13:00):
I'd take that three and a half Falcons plus five
at home against the Saints. I don't get this. Saints love.
What's happening right now? People are starting to feel like
maybe they have a better roster than the box. I
read that this morning. I cannot invest in Jamis. We
(13:23):
were in Atlanta Falcons podcast last year. The number has
moved up from three and a half to five and
a half. Of the money seventy of the bets on
the Saints. Why wouldn't we outo bet the Falcons here?
I was about to say, chat, what are you doing
just going through our favorite bets? But then I realized,
(13:45):
I think every game we have favorite bets because we've
just been talking about these games for three months. Atlanta,
it's just an overlooked team, Like the number, the number screams,
please anyone put money on me, like the books need.
People are coming in Atlanta. But it was funny that
as soon as it touched six, they took a lot
of money and moved it right back to five and
(14:06):
a half, which means they know the pros are just
waiting on that six. Again. It's a key number. Five
is kind of five and a half is kind of
a dead number. So to me, if you're like me
and Chad and you liked this Atlanta game, you don't
need to wait for the six. I don't think it's
gonna come. I think you're fine taking the five and
a half if you just want to get the bet
in and get it locked up. But simple strategy here
of divisional matchup, rookie head coach on the road with
(14:28):
Jamis Winston. Need I say more. It's like, you can
have all the Mariota slander you want. He has Drake London,
he's got Quitel Paterson the running back, he's got Kyle Pitts.
They have all these different weapons on offense. And if
you look at his grade inside the twenties, the man's
are literally one of the best red zone players in
the history of football. The guy just because of the
triple threat right the run pass option with him. So
(14:51):
for me, I I love getting a doubted Atlanta team
here at home opening day against a rookie head coach.
UH Chad. Chad gave us out forever ago about one
of his favorite bets. I had no doubt this is
probably one of one of the bets in our contest.
UH might have to be one of our Foxhold bets.
But I don't know if we can do three in
a row of our game show bets because it's like
(15:11):
Chad's railing them off here. But I do just love
this game. I feel like this will be one of
the less bet teams. Maybe the Jets will be get
the least amount of money. I could see Atlanta Week
one and get the least amount of money. Every game
is a game that we seem to love because there
are so many dogs. That's the problem. And we can
talk about this Jets game next. Oh no, we suck again.
(15:34):
Jets plus seven against the Ravens. This is the one
that I know we should bet it, but I don't
know who's playing for the Jets. I've got a lot
of investment in the Ravens. I think if there's any
game we could skip, it's this one because of the
uncertainty for the quarterback. I'm heavily invested. I've been betting
it for months as one of Like again, one of
(15:57):
the readers reached out to me, can you just throw
two bets into the app so we can start tracking
NFL bets. First two bets I did Ravens minus five
and a half Houston plus eight, And it's just the
exact same reason here with the Ravens. It's like I
thought this line was gonna move and it has. We
just we just knew people eventually catch up to this
Ravens team. I still think they're being under valued. I mean,
(16:19):
we don't know right now. We're meant to do on
this show on Tuesday. By Wednesday, won't know if it's
gonna be Zack Wilson. If this is Zack Wilson, a
guy who hasn't practiced for the last month, coming in
cold against this Ravens team with Lamar and this defense,
I mean, across the board, this is gonna be everyone's
survivor picked. Everyone will be all in on it. So yeah,
that's the scary part of it. But I do bet Shalk,
(16:41):
Like there are times I'd take a position when I
think that there's a bad number. Seven is good, like
that is where it should be. I would take the seven,
and I'd be concerned if it was Flacco, just because
of that. You know that veteran game. We always see
it all the time. These veteran quarterbacks have one good
game and then they suck for the next five. That's
just stinks for like a flac Oh moment against his
former team. But I would not change my position. If
(17:03):
you're already been in the Ravens and his Flacco, I
would still let a ride just for me and Chad.
I don't know if this would be one of our
picks in the contest, but if it's Zack Wilson, Chad's
gonna fight me on it. But I'm gonna be trying
to get it in there because it's like, literally the
kid has not practiced for a month until this week.
You know, that's really hard to do. If you're Tom Brady,
it's hard to do. If you're Zack Wilson, it's impossible.
(17:24):
You're gonna be fighting to get the Ravens even at
seven into the contest. If it's Zack Wilson. If it
was seven, I would If it was seven a half,
I would not be I would not try to put
it down. I think this Jets team might be one
of the worst teams in football. Yeah, I told you,
I'm I bet them for a worst record. Again, it's
just because the a f C is so brutally tough. Yeah,
(17:45):
the a f C is tough. And look, everyone overhyped them.
This was a team I bet under five and a
half at plus one thirty five because they won the
off season, they won the draft, and everybody bet the
over five and a half and it made no sense,
but everyone bought in because it's the fucking Jets, and
it's New York and half of everybody in the media
(18:05):
is enamored with them, as if it's like an ironic
team to root for because they're so bad. I wouldn't
mind taking the seven if it's If it's a Zach Wilson,
that'll be an interesting conversation we have on Sunday the
Bengals defending a f C champs against the Mitch true
Bisky lead Pittsburgh Steelers. There's six and a half point favorites.
(18:29):
This kind of feels right to me. Yeah, to me,
this is way too high. Just a lot of respect
to Joe what Joe did last year about realizing what's
what's the Bengals makeup? They win ugly close games. Now
you could say they've changed without the same team they
were last year. But the a f C North, it's
like it just never ends. It's literally a never ending
(18:52):
circle of these teams just play each other tough, tight games,
defensive battles, and we're getting the benefit of no one
wants to bet Pittsburgh right when they chatted last time
we checked. I think there are plus nine hundred for
this division. They're left for dead because no one's behind
the mixture of biscuit business and we talk all the time.
I look at that team again. One of the worst
offensive lines in football, no denying that, But at the
(19:15):
skill positions, you can't find more talent on offense. They
have a skill position at every position on from my
receiver tight end to running back. Mitch. We've seen it.
The guy can game manager game. So I was hoping
this wasn't at the seven, right. That's me being greedy
but happy to take the value six and a half.
I had this number three and a half. It's no
(19:36):
disrespect to Joe. I think this since an a team.
We I gave him out as a wild card team.
I do think they're gonna be good this year. This
is a trap, like we're gonna talk about a round
robin we do on Thursday. How do you not take
the money along in this Pittsburgh team a divisional game?
The team that lost in the super Bowl historically is
terrible A t s uh. It's it's just a bad
(19:57):
spot for this Bangles team to be in and and
the best parties that they're at home, which to me,
that's that's good for us. We want this Pittsburgh team
on the road because that's what you like with the defense,
that gets them fired up, being the bad boys in
that stadium. So yeah, it's yeah, and there's so many
other dogs we love. But if this makes into our contest,
you never know. But to me, this is an auto play.
You just play a divisional foe like this for a
(20:20):
final five. It'll be hard. I mean, I already know
we love the Lions and the Falcons at four and
five and a half and we're four games into this, right,
But you make some good points about Pittsburgh division foe Like,
when do these games ever land in the final score
at more than three? That tends to be the case.
(20:40):
So six and a half I think is a little
bit over inflation in the Bengals. Mike Tomlin. By the way,
rah Ras spot what ra ra? Mike Tomlin spot we
win the game? Were bodies right here today today we
almost went through an entire game without mentioning. Mike Tomlin
(21:02):
in an Underdog on the road Mike Tomlin, spot man.
We make the simple complex in this business, don't we
All of a sudden. If this isn't the first game
that we put in our contest, I think we're crazy.
And we're going to hear from people saying the Bengals
swept them last year and they dominated Pittsburgh and both matches.
That is a fair argument, but again, it's a new year.
(21:23):
It's like you have to adjust this year and this
is just even even if they dominated last year, this
is just a bad spot for this Bangals team. Not
so much. I think Pittsburgh approved that much. It's just
a lot more goes into it than simply on piece
of paper what these teams do against each other. We
shouldn't note that last year we got off to a
not great start, and I think we were we were
(21:45):
in our head, we weren't playing to our principles, which
as you've noted, we like to play home dogs, we
like to play ugly dogs, we like to play the value.
And so I think we just got to remind ourselves
every single day, every single show, every single week, like
stick with our guns, don't get caught up in the hype,
(22:09):
don't listen to the voices, go with what we know
and that then the Briggs, can you tell me how
often are pro actually wins any of these contests? Never?
It's just you need a lot of luck. But I'm
with you, like if we if if those glory let
there's those down days, like Chad saying I'm gonna need
chry to smack me around a little bit and be like, no,
stick stick to what it gets us to the that
(22:29):
what we need to do is like that dogs at home,
That's kind of what we gotta stick to because a
lot of times we get scared because we were like
losing on some of them. Just gotta stick stick with it.
Dolphins have moved up from two and a half point
favorites at home against the Patriots to three and a
half seventy of the money of the bets. This is
(22:50):
a pass for me. At three and a half, I
could see how you'd say, all right, take the Patriots.
Take the hook at plus three and a half. At
two and a half, I kind of love the Dolphins.
The money has moved too much for me. Yeah, it sucks.
I love the Dolphins. Like this was a no brainer.
Been betting it all summer two two and a half,
even bet it again at three because I was like, forget,
(23:11):
that's still a good number. Now you have to bet.
You have to bet the Patriots of three and a half.
It's like, how have we not We've all seen the data.
These rookie head coaches are just not good week one.
I think again it's our guy Evan put out that
arc collaborate Abrahams three and eighteen or three nineteen since
and week one straight up, it's just it's not good.
So scared of the only only thing pausing to me
(23:34):
is honestly that the coaching like Bill Belichick against a
rookie head coach week one scary. But Miami talent wise
is so far above better than this Patriots team, and
everything Miami does well. Speed is the biggest weakness of
this new England team. Like people are gonna be blown
away how fast this Miami team is. It's like it's
(23:55):
gonna to be very interesting to see how this new
England team tries to defend it as they are bad
on defense now, Like people don't realize that that's one
of their bigger weaknesses now is their defense. So again,
their fronts good, but their back end is not that good.
So I love Miami, but like Chad said, we're gonna
pass on this one. This next game, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor
Lawrence visiting the Washington Commanders. This game has dropped. The
(24:20):
Jags opened as four point dogs, they're now two and
a half. Anyone who is new to the podcast should
know Simon and I have an irrational love for the
Jaguars right now. My theory is that Doug Peterson was
the genius on that Eagles team, and he's the one
who coached Nick Foles to greatness, not Frank Reich who's
(24:40):
gotten a lot of the credit as the offensive coordinator
on that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl. Doug
Peterson would with Trevor Lawrence who could potentially be a
generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar
than what Joe Burrow did last year. Um, it happens.
It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus
(25:02):
at seventy one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
We both like the Jags as long as shots to
win their division, the a f C South. Everything is
on the Jags right now. That's and money. So do
(25:23):
you still like it at two and a half? And like,
that's what sucks about doing the show this week one.
It's like some of these numbers have just moved too much. Yes,
we are all in on the Jaguars. They should lose
this game. Like the Washington Commanders are pretty much the
same exact team as the Jaguars are for the most part, honestly,
Like you just look it on paper. Again, I want
I love the shot on Carson Wentz because it's fun,
(25:45):
He's not that terrible, and they have pretty pretty good
weapons on this Washington team. So yeah, at four points,
this was a really really good value and an easy pick.
Even at three points that probably would have taken the Jaguars.
But I have this game at and a half. Now
there's a lot the move is shifted to the Commanders.
I just won't bet it because I'm already invest in
(26:06):
the Jaguars. But yeah, I'm terrified, Like it feels like
we're about to have the Jaguars start. Oh one chat,
I'm gonna feel like an idiot. But coming into us,
I love this game because it was just it's just
too egally evenly match teams where a number should have
been three two and a half because again, there's no
real home field advantage. Right for Washington, their fans they
hate them, like they're they really calling themselves the Commies.
They just they do not like this organization. So we
(26:29):
talked about it. I don't know how many times when
we betting on Washington. Eventually the value is going to
be there and we will have to take Washington. They're
probably my least favorite team to bet on this season
until Deshaun Watson comes back. For right now, Washington, I
just I hate betting on So I'm gonna pass on
this all right. We're gonna have to pass on the
Jags as much as we love them. Now we're gonna
(26:49):
have to spend a couple of minutes talking about a team.
For people who don't know. Simon and I are on
a show called Convince Me every Sunday at eleven a
m Eastern. You can catch it on Twitter, on the
Action Network Candle. You can catch it in the Action
Network app. It's me, It's Simon, It's Chris Raban, It's
(27:11):
Sean Kerner, it's Darren Rivel, it's Samantha Prividi. We're all
talking about the games. We did a preview show last week.
I kind of love the Niners to represent the NFC
in the Super Bowl right now. They're sixteen to want
to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the
Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus
(27:32):
seven in this spot. If not for my anti Bears
bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play
to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up,
the bests on the Niners sixty eight of the money
(27:52):
on the Bears, So the wise guys see it that
way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward.
It's one of the few games I've met like a
cow Uh. Took took forty nine first half, took Bears
for the game. I just didn't really know what to
do with it. It's stinks. This line stinks. I don't
get why I didn't stay at seven. Why is it
not st going up and stayed up? Who is betting
(28:13):
the Bears? Other their professionals, like other than Bears fans
who are betting. I just don't I don't get what
people are seeing this. I guess because they had that
one end of the game, end of the preseason fields
through the three touchdowns. But it's like the talent level
on these two teams, it's not comparable, like it's it's
really night and day. Um. The Bears did draft good though,
(28:33):
chat like you're you should be excited about this regime
right now because they are apparently making good draft picks.
They had no good pick slash. I don't think they
had a first round pick right, and they end up
getting two guys that are starting for you this year
on defense, which again could be scary, but they've looked
they've played well, uh this preseason. So to me, I
don't know what to really do with this Bears team
because I want to fade them heavily. But taking a
(28:56):
I guess you could say is the second year quarterback
in Trey Lance take him in his first start of
the year on the road. I mean, that's that's a
lot to ask of him. So I do think first
half is a smart bet. With the sport Owners team,
they can come out, Kyle can scheme up the first
thirty place for him. It's once he goes off off,
you know script, and he's in the second half. That's
him a little worried about Trey Lance. So to me,
(29:18):
if you're gonna bet this game, you can bet it
like I am. I'm just doing first half for Niners
and then I'll take the Bears for the full game,
just because I feel like this game is gonna land
on six. It's just the way the books have been
keeping it at that number. It's as if they know
something like this game will be closer than people think.
But we do have to play the Bears at plus seven. Yeah, yeah,
no doubt, but you can't. You just can't ignore it. Yeah,
(29:44):
and again it's this would be this is probably my
second or third smallest bet because I just don't don't
really like this Bears team, like we talked about it.
But there's gonna be a bunch of times me and
Ted are gonna have to bet the number. And we've
just seen the time and time again the Bears at home,
because you when you have to take this team like
they're a bad team, where they're at home, that's when
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West Virginia. The Baker Ball Panthers numbers come down by
the way well and opened it four a while ago,
but with Baker has been you know, the two and
a half range. Now it's minus two playing Jacobe Brissette
and the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield, I'm gonna fuck him
up revenge. I'm a huge Panthers fan. I like the
(32:16):
over six and a half. I think Baker is an
interesting long shot for a variety of passing props. Why
aren't I taking the Panthers minus two here is a
short home favorite. In fact, for the record, you can
check in the action app. I did take him to
two and a half. Another game where I kind of
bet early. We all kind of bet Carolina early on
because they were plus three plus four, just because at
(32:38):
the time Watson was gonna play. And then as the
months rolled on, the numbers started coming down, and then
once they traded for Baker flipped and then once the
Watson news came out, Chad said, it shot up the
four three and a half. The pros beded back down
because it's like, this is not that I'm saying this
is your season, Carolina, but you have to start off good,
like this team needs to start hot with Baker. I
(33:00):
want to know you need to start that way. So
I don't like the position I'm in with this Carolina
team that I feel like they have the pressure on them,
that the Browns will be playing free. Everyone's awful. The
expectations are very low. Jakober said it is not a
good quarterback. So yeah, blind picking, I would take Carolina.
But this is again another one of these very small
(33:20):
bets for me. I just I just don't know what
to really do with this game because I don't know
what I'm getting from this Browns team. They on paper,
they have more talent to this Carolina team, but we've
seen Baker like Baker with talent around him to make
things happen. Again, he took this Brown's team just two
years ago the NFC Championship games, So I get why
Chad so hyped in this Carolina team. I'm excited just
(33:40):
to wait and see before I start putting six figures
or five figures into Baker Mayfield led Carolina Panthers when
he's healthy and has talent. The ceiling for Baker Mayfield
is consistently higher, considerably higher than he's being given credit for.
That's really just the bottom line. He just makes the
(34:00):
dumbest fucking decisions. Chad's gonna have a moment, Baker's gonna
throw a pick, and you're like, fuck Baker, I fucking
hate this guy. I feel like there's so much pressure
on Carolina in just week one them in Miami. I
feel like, are the two teams of the highest pressure,
Like Miami needs to beat in New England to start
the year or man, people are gonna lose their minds
down there in Miami. You mentioned this off the top.
(34:20):
The Texans number has moved the Texans against the Colt
to move from eight and a half to seven. I
bet the Texans at plus eight and a half on Sunday,
it's now Tuesday, it's at seven. I'm looking at Action
network dot com right now, and you can get all
this information on the site and in the app. So
when I quote percentage of bets percentage of money, I'm
(34:43):
getting it off of Actions properties. The biggest delta between
number of bets and percent of money is on the Texans.
Of the bets are on the Texans. So basically the
public are betting on the Texans over the Olds, but
nine percent of the money of the money is generally
(35:06):
that's the wise guys biggest delta, second biggest delta. Our
third biggest delta is the Bears and the Niners, and
we'll get to the second one in a little bit.
We haven't gotten there yet. Even at seven, I'd play
the Texans. They're better than we think. They performed better
than we thought they would last year. We believe in
Davis Mills is a quarterback. Frank Reich. His team is
(35:29):
always underperform. I'm a mind that Frank Wright probably isn't
as good a coach as everyone believes him to be.
His teams have generally underperformed, even though he's had eight quarterbacks. Like,
that's your job, dude. You play the guys you got
and then you win. Give me the Texans here. I
like him at seven, probably the lowest I like him,
but I like him at seven. Yeah, and Frank Reich
(35:49):
has never covered Week one. And as I mean, it's
a young coaching career, it's what year four formed. But again,
these teams have historically come out slow. Last year, I
think their own four colts start the year. So we
love all things about this Houston team. We already checking,
already touched on it. We just knew this was a
bad number. We're lucky we both locked in an eight
and a half. This was my second best bet I
gave out, So I give off the rams um on
(36:11):
the action app writing it. And then this is the
other pick I gave out, just the fact that said
in the article, eight and a half is just too
many points in the divisional game Week one between these
two teams. That again the Colts they beat him last year. Good,
they beat their crap out of Houston. They beat him
twice last year. I think both times were over thirty points.
This Houston team is completely different, the things they've added,
(36:32):
the update they've done on defense. Again, say what you
want about Lovey Smith. I do think he is a
smart defensive mind. I just like this Houston team and
Chat I might begin sucked in here, I might be
drinking too much of the kool aid, but all the
pros are with us. Like I've every product talked to,
They've loved this number and they were gonna come in
heavy on it this week, and they did so. The
number dropped a seven. It's gonna half. Other pros came
(36:54):
back on the other side, right get a middle position
at that six and a half. They bet it back
up to seven Fandel, I believe that's seven and a
half right now in Jersey, and that number keeps fluctuating.
So to me, if you didn't get the day and
a half, you could wait. But it's a little risky
because it could drop down a six and a half
and that crossed another key number of seven, so you
could get seven half of fandor right now. I would
grab that just in case. But yeah, no brainer played
(37:17):
divisional game at home. Dog. I love it. My only
pause right now is the fact that, shoot, it's so
much love for Houston, like all every proctol. I haven't
talked to a single pro that's on the Colts, which
is very rare because usually there's a couple of guys
you like chalk a little scary. It feels like I'm again,
I'm heavily invested in this, uh this this Houston team
(37:39):
just for a week one. But you can't not take
that number. Like Chad said, it's such a big number
for week one. The Raiders very interesting team. I know
how much you love the Raiders. They're on the road
at the Chargers. Las Vegas is a three and a
half point underdog, getting a preponderance of the money against
the Chargers team that everyone believes might be the most
(38:02):
talented top to bottom roster in the NFL. And if
there is anyone who was expected to win the division
other than the Chiefs, probably the best division in the
a f C West with four fantastic quarterbacks, it is
the Los Angeles Chargers. This is probably a pass for me. Yeah,
I'll pass too, because this line stinks like to me,
(38:23):
they're they're begging me to take this Raider's team. They
know I want to take that three and have so bad.
But I look at a team in Vegas that have
a new head coach learning a new scheme on the road,
they probably have more fans though honestly right they'll probably
have more fans in the Chargers in l A. But
I feel like this is a good spot to take
this Chargers team. You got Herbert at home with the
(38:44):
head coach that they're running the same system as that
it last year him in his OUFC. So I wish
I could bet it. I wish I had the confidence
take this Chargers team. There's just other games that I
like better. So I will be betting the Chargers, but
not not going to be one of the five We
we land the next game on the docket here, and
I just want to say, we thought there'd be so
(39:05):
many games that we want to bet. The truth is,
I think there's right now three that we feel really
good about, four that we're like maybe, so it's not
as cut and dry as we thought, well it is.
I'm just I'm trying to keep the show, you know,
excitement go as we go on here. All right, Vikings
plus one and a half against the Packers. I'm surprised
(39:30):
um this this number has moved down and opened a
two and a half. I'm surprised at the amount of
money coming in on the Packers because to me, I
don't like this game because I think we've lost value
and I want to bet the best of the number.
But the Vikings are the side here, you know, and
this is I'll get in trouble. I break my own rules,
like I like Green Bay. I just there's two bunch
(39:51):
being made about the green Bay wide receivers and it's
like as if people don't realize there's always guys living,
Like people don't even know who Greg Jennings is, lester
of certain age, like that guy left. Jordy Nelson stepped
up and then that a guy named Jones stepped up,
and then Davante Adams stepped up. There's just always the
next guy up for Green Bay at wide receiver, Like
they find these guys and Rogers makes them great. So
(40:14):
I saw the under get hit and I saw in
Minnesota get hit. So that's professional bets and professional movement.
So if you want to beg with Green Bay with me,
you just understand you're going against guys like Chad and
other pros that are like you're taking a home dog divisionally,
you blindly bet it. I think this number should be three.
I just I think there's too much hype on this
Vikings team. Even professionals. They're like looking at this offense. Oh,
(40:37):
their new o c their new head coach, he's he's
the right hand man to McVeigh. This guy's new scheme
is gonna really change his whole Vikings outlook. And it's
still at the end of the day, it's still Kirk Cousins.
So I'm I'm great with taking Rogers. I'll be down
four or up four in the fourth quarter and somehow
Kirk's gonna help me win this bet. So Chad's me
sweating Kirk I'll be sweating Rogers and we'll see who's
(41:00):
mount come Monday. Oh, I haven't bet it yet. Don't
talk about our principles all the time. And we've got
a couple of games here in the Ravens and in
the Packers. It's so clearly we should be betting from
a historical precedent point of view the home dog, and
(41:21):
yet the matchup is making you say take the favorite.
And since divisional home dogs five and oh a t
s week one, going against that trend to which again
it's scary, but you are. I gotta trust the numbers. Brother,
I got it at three. It's it's one and a half. Oh,
you're a professional. The Giants, Uh, this is the second
(41:44):
biggest differential between money and bets. The bets on the
Titans at minus five and a half of the bets
on the Giants cent of the money A lot of
professionals like in the Giants here. I can't do it.
I people are gonna hate me because I hate on
their teams. But I just I don't get the Giants hype.
(42:06):
I don't get it either. I'm excited, right, excited to
see what they do this year? Like this is it
for Daniel Jones and like that as a fan, that's
must be nice for Giants fans. I know this is
it like either this kids actually finally be good with
a good head coach, well was just not good and
like that's it. But man, everyone trying to hype up
their offensive lines better, everyone trying to take a better
(42:28):
you're for Barkley. It's just like, I just don't know
what's backing up these statements. Uh, Tennessee to me is
still a very good team. Number probably should be six.
I like that it's stayed a five and a half.
I definitely think it's tsue and Chad just said a
lot of money is coming on on the neverb really
hasn't move much, which means the books are kind of
the same thing. They're kind of shruggling their shoulders, being like,
(42:48):
we're happy to be needing the Tennessee against the Giants here.
This is a position we don't mind taking. So yeah,
it's not when I've heavily bet, but I have I've
had bet this Tennessee team. And again, if you're a
big teaser guy, don't mind taking this one as a teaser,
or you just do a money line parlay with them, uh,
because I could see it being closer than we believe,
just because again Tennessee loss a J. Brown, Like, we
(43:09):
don't really know where getting from the wire receiver position.
With them, we do know is we have a solid
o line with Derrick Henry and a better quarterback and
a better head coach. Right, So I do think it's
interesting that the the pros again, people are gonna see
this Week one, a lot of people are gonna betting
what they're hoping to happen this season, which is totally
relevant to Week one. You just simply should be playing
this week alone. So yeah, trying to be not biased
(43:31):
because I am excited for this Giants team because like again,
they they to me have no expectations. It's kind of
a fun year for them where it's they're gonna be
really good or they're just gonna be absolutely crap again,
but would not be putting money on them. Give me,
give me six and a half. Seven, I'm there on
the Giants, but a five and a half, I think
you gotta take Tennessee. I'm gonna foreshadow something I think
the Titans this week and we'll talk about this on Thursday.
(43:56):
Interesting survivor choice. Do you think about this positions Other
teams are in who you might want to pick and
survivor they're in trap spots, and the Titans are a
team you might want to get rid of early and
they're not in a trap spot. Rights, that's a good one.
But when we're gonna play the Ravens again, we have
to look to the schedule. Well, we'll get to it
on Thursday. Chiefs are six point favorites over the Cardinals
(44:22):
in Arizona. Bets and money on the Chiefs. I know
you love the Chiefs. I know I know how much
you love the Chiefs. The backlash to the backlash against
Patrick Mahomes is alive and well on the Favorites podcast.
This kind of feels foxholy to me. What like taking Arizona,
Oh God, Chad, I mean Chad's right and saying you
(44:44):
bet the number here, But I had made this number six.
I think you're still getting good value on the Chiefs.
And it was funny when I put it in. Uh, Basically,
Chad has me do this thing with other guys that
work at Action. We put in like an NFL power
rating thing they plug into the app. Everyone else had
three half four and I just came in with six.
I was just like, no, this number should be six.
And it looked crazy because at the time I think
(45:05):
the number was three, and then I went up to
three and a half, and then all of a sudden
this week it shot up to five and a half six.
So I think it's good where it is at. Like,
I like this Chief's team. I like the fact that
they have upgraded. The only reason with Chad that you
should maybe think about taking Arizona here is no one
likes them. They're kind of being hated on by everybody.
No one's taking them their division, no one. He's talking
(45:28):
about them secretly. They're greatest strength is running the ball,
like they ran the ball a lot last year. Connor,
they're running back. I think he had sixteen touchdowns rushing.
That's a huge weapon. And we know this Chief's team
that was their Achilles Hill last year. You could pick
up five eclips. So that's the fear, right if you're
if you're taking a big road favorite that can't stop
(45:50):
the run, that's a recipe for disaster. So and Chad,
Chad was Chad saying, it's true, you're like you're always
supposed to take Arizona here. See me, I just don't
think there's value yet. If they hit seven, I I
will take a position on Arizona, no doubt. But still
at six, I still think you're getting good value on
the Chief's team. Well, listen, we got two other games
that are foxholes, and one of them there's no way
(46:13):
we're taking. I'm putting the Cardinals down as a potential
for our top five. No, there's no chance Cardinals. It's
a good spot. It's good spot. Buccane years two and
a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night.
Tom Brady's back. The Cowboys are back. The Cowboys their
home dogs. I mean the Cowboys are the side. Yeah,
(46:37):
it sucks, like I hate betting a team like this
that just had so much negativity heading into the season.
But lucky for us, Tampas had the same exact thing.
They just had a lot of drama in this camp.
Dak I just saw crazy stat career completion percentage against
Tampa Bay. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them.
Last year, the all hype team with Tampa the only
(46:59):
beat them by two and week one, we're exactly where
we were last year, right, except we're at home with
this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We
gotta do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's
just no doubt about it. No one's gonna be betting
this game Sunday night, taking Dallas going to the foxhole.
(47:19):
Let's climb down into the foxhole like it's us and
it's us in Cowboy fans, like, I mean literally, they
just signed a four year old man to play left
tackle for them in Jason Peters, a guy who was
on his couch all summer. Another team gave him a
call and Dallas did so. Dallas definitely is a nice spot.
But you know, for Week one, weird things are happening.
(47:41):
We're getting home dog that we can't really disagree that
this feels gross, right, Chet Like this is probably the
This to me feels like the most forced one going
against Brady and week one. But they just have had
so much turmoil and Tampa. It's like it's hard to
back him until they get into a groove in this season.
I've been eyeing this game for weeks. Every single time
(48:01):
I look at the board and I see the two
and a half, it feels like, of course, I got
to take the Cowboys and I have not. It's one
of the games I have not pulled the trigger on.
I just I haven't been able to do it. If
you're really that scared, that's a good tease game, then,
like if you don't want to bet it straight Again,
Stucky is our guy for teasers. I feel like you'll
have this one in there, because again, eight and a
(48:22):
half on a home dog. I I understand I'm not
a huge teas guy, but I would definitely tease Dallas.
That's a good number for a home team. Listen to
Stucky and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. It's brilliant.
Their Thursday episode where they create their six pack of
best bets is so good. You can also hear Stucky
and Colin Wilson on The Big Bets on Campus pod
(48:44):
previewing the college games. All right, Russell Wilson is visiting
his old team, the Seattle Seahawks. Who's playing quarterback for
the Seahawks? Is it really Gino Smith? Did I dream that? Yeah?
Thank god? Is Geno Smith not Drew Lock. The most
disgusting thing we can do here is take the Seahawks.
(49:04):
It almost at six and a half right now. It
almost feels negligent if we don't and it's probably of
those sick things, or if I lose and that Cowboys bet,
I'm gonna go probably even heavier on this game because
I'll just be so mad where it's like, come on,
like the one of these dogs gotta win big in
prime time. Seahawks gross like this, this is one of
(49:25):
the grosser bets. This is the Jets. Like, if you're
bet two teams this week that take the biggest amount
of balls and the grossest bet you can make, it's
probably this is the Jets. It's just disgusting. The Seahawks
on paper, bad defense, offense not terrible, Like they got
the weapons that penny in the backfield, they got tire locket,
It's like they got the weapons. Canino get it there.
(49:46):
But to me, the biggest thing is it's it's Russ
first start. It's gotta be so weird, Like again, the
Matt Ryan thing's gonna be weird too, Matt Ryan fourteen
years in the land, the first game for the Colts.
It's gonna be weird, walking out, the guys in locker room,
all of it, Like that's weird. It how how do
we not feel like this is gonna strangest thing I
have for Russell Wilson going back to where all those memories,
all those amazing things happened. Brady, what was that? What
(50:08):
do he went by two points against New England when
he went back last year against Mac Jones, like we've
just seen even the strongest mental guy in the world,
Tom Brady, he broke and he talked about it affected
him after the game. He said it was the weirdest
thing ever be another sideline looking at the stands. That's
kind of rare. And russ having people that loved him
for ten years curse on him out talking ship to
(50:28):
him going to be weird. So I love this number
all the way down to four and a half. It's
it's gross people, But primetime Island games, you're getting a
dog and I guess all hype team in Denver, another
team that's just been talked about all summer take it.
This number has just been ballooned up on the simple
fact they have to protect against teasers and they know
the public is gonna come back heavy on this game, especially.
(50:50):
I mean if the Bucks lose, this number could jump
to seven again, which it was at and it came
down when Gino's name. So I like it at six
and a half. But if you don't want to wait,
you wanna wait to live it. See see if you
get seven, I get it, because I do think I
could get back up there. I think it's fitting that
we end a disgusting show convincing ourselves that Seattle plus
six and a half is not only a great play,
(51:11):
but it may be one of our top five picks
when we narrow it down on Thursday. It's gonna be interesting.
We got a couple of conversations going on in here
when on Thursday and we talked about sharp calls, which
is you will get over the next forty eight hours
a lot of phone calls from professional betters who listen
to the podcast. Not so much week one, but as
(51:32):
the season goes along, it's gonna be a lot more.
But like, yeah, the only guys are gonna calling me.
Your guys are already talked ship to me about their picks.
They will call and they will either confirm what we're
saying or trash what we're saying. It's gonna be no confirmations.
It's only gonna be negative. Week one, Well, we live
for the negative. It hypes us up. Hit people in
the fucking mouth. Run it up there, fucking throat. That's it.
(51:59):
We got through. I was nervous about this. We got
through the full slate. We had things to say about
every game. Here we go, brother, This has been the
favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman, He's
Simon Hunter for producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. Download the podcast
from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.
(52:21):
Download the Action Network app. Take advantage of all the
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
(01:30):
I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am joined as I am every single show by
my bff, my companion Mike and padre my co host
Simon Hunter Professional better listen. I'm not gonna lie to you.
(01:50):
Before we started recording today, I was a little nervous.
It's just a different show. It's a it's a different show.
When you are talking about the actual Week one games
to bet on, the stakes are higher, they just are.
Our show is getting bigger, Chad, I mean, it's good
to be back. I mean, it's what the the true
(02:13):
first day of school. I guess you could say, it's
like we're all here ready to go. It's raining the
next two days in the Northeast. That kind of starts
feeling like fall a little bit. Should we do some housekeeping,
some bona fides? Just because how many new listeners are
we gonna have Week one? Everyone's back like we got
our true loyal fans who are the smart ones. They
got all the good numbers that we gave out all summer.
Now the new guys are showing up. The guys who
(02:34):
you know, they don't love us, They just love our
picks because they love winning money. They're back. Also, we
probably should tell everyone our new show dates, right, Chad,
No more Tuesday Thursdays. A lot of people saying we're
ruining their routine. It's part of the business. People adjust
Wednesday's Fridays. It's not that bad. Listen. The show will
come out around eleven pm on Tuesday night and eleven
pm on Thursday night. A lot of behind the scenes
(02:59):
master nation that will bore people about why that has
to happen, But look, that's part of the deal. We're
gonna roll with it. I was thinking of myself. It
feels like the first day of school when I was
doing my ten minute peloton full body stretch this morning.
You're just an old man. As far as bona fides, listen.
For those who don't know, I'll start with myself. I
(03:22):
am the chief Content Officer of the Action Network. The
Action Network covers everything you need in sports betting in
our app, on our website, on our social handles. We
are producing hundreds of pieces of content a week focused
on sports betting, the sports betting experience. Download the app
track your picks. We've tracked north of two hundred and
(03:43):
fifty five million picks in our app. It is a
vital tool for anybody who was fresh to the gambling experience.
I'm kind of a legend in the sports betting media space.
I don't know how much I need to go into
my background. Let's just say I invented it and I've
also written seven books. Sign and go ahead. Chad Millman
is proud of himself. This will be my tent season
(04:06):
being an actual professional better working for a betting syndicate.
I joined Chad. This will be our fourth season again.
I didn't want to be on the show, honestly. When
I reached out the chat, I simply said to him,
can I just send you picks and you can use them.
Just you gotta take more underdogs and they're gotta be
smart underdogs. And Chad was like, talk to me on
the phone. We talked. Next thing, you know, I'm coming
on this show fifteen minutes a week for the first year.
(04:28):
I came on last year when I Matt Mitchell will
blur my face because again, I didn't really want to
be on the show, but it's all worked out, like
this is your four for me and Chad. The show
has grown, it's definitely getting it's definitely different, where like,
you know, we got to target on our back. I
definitely feel that for sure, and it's like, you know,
I don't take it lightly. So this season there's gonna
highs and lows. Just understand, I'm working my ass off
(04:50):
and Chad is obviously trying his best. It's like, we
get it. We want to win too. The goal here
is to make you take ugly dogs. I feel like
that's what me and Chad are really coming known for.
It's been very profitable taking underdogs. So yeah, if you're
new to the show, it's gonna feel weird what we do,
but it will make sense that the season goes along.
As you'll see, there's just these spots in these moments
(05:10):
of these underdogs that are just crazy undervalued. So thanks
for taking a chance on us, and hopefully, like some
of these ugly picks, we're literally about to give in
the next two minutes. Here's how the show breaks down
on Tuesdays, we go through the entire NFL slate. Simon
and I will talk about our early leans. We will
give away a Foxhole bet. That is the bet where
we are in it together. We feel like everyone is
(05:32):
going to be against us. But I want to be
in the foxholl with Simon. He wants to be in
the foxhow with me. Simon will give his Simon says
bet that means bet it right away. I will give
him my executive decision bet because I am an executive
Bet it right away. You can follow all of these
picks follow the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app.
(05:52):
Producer Matt Mitchell will be loading these into the app
every single week um and then on Thursdays we narrow
down the slate. We talk about the games that we
loved to try to come up with a five favorite
that we will enter into a contest in which Simon
and I are going to win boatloads of money. Let's
get to a brother No more dilly dally, you talk
(06:14):
about ugly dogs. Right Thursday Night Football kicking off the
season super Bowl Champs against the consensus Super Bowl favorites.
The Rams are two and a half point home underdogs
higher percentage of bets about the bets and about seventy
of the money coming in on the Buffalo Bills Matt
(06:37):
Mitchell's Bills mafia. This is excruciating for him. What do
you think right off the bat, Simon says, bet the
Rams get it right now, let's do and a half.
Simon do it? We do? What Sciences? What? Chad? A
little fun things going on Downd the scenes. Chad has
(06:58):
his nerds hitting me up now for pick. And they're
really cool about it, they said, because they know I
can't write, like again, I dropped out of college. Your
boy cannot right. Uh. They called me up. They'll say,
can you give us one or two your best bets?
And my favorite bet when I gave right away was
the Rams plus two and a half classic overvalue team
and a Bills team that's the all hyped team, the
(07:18):
super Bowl favorite. Everyone's talking about them. We're getting the
defending Super Bowl champion on a discount and in the
rare position of I don't think people understand what happened
last year with this Bills team, right Everyone just looks
at what they did last year, looks at their record
without thinking themselves, how did they get to that record,
and if you look at their division, they went five
and one. That's great outside their division, six and five,
(07:42):
That's that's what you have to look at, say what
happened outside of the division. Where do they get their wins?
Where they get their losses? This is their wins outside
their division. Last year they won against Washington, they went
against Houston, beat the Chiefs. That's when I got sucked in.
Then they beat New Orleans Carolina in Atlanta. That that
was are outside of their visions wins. They went one
in three against the a FC South. Last year the
(08:04):
Bills outside of their division, their only win was against Houston,
so they lost to the Jaguars, lost of the Colts,
and lost the Tennessee. This is just a classic overvalue
Bills team where who can't deny Josh Allen's probably the
best quarterback in football right now. It's a team game.
So we're getting the all hype team and Bills that
a games should be a pick. It's two and a half.
They're out of their division, they're playing at a conference
(08:25):
against the defending Super Bowl champions against McVeigh who's five
and oh at home. I'm not even at home opening night,
uh their first game. He's five and out his career.
McVeigh has never lost the defending Super Bowl champion at home.
In this position of being a underdog, they cover at
a six percent clip. So again, there's just all these
little trends pointing to it, and Chad knows we love
(08:45):
home dogs. So it's like to me, I was hoping
to get to the three, hoping the public keep betting up.
The books are too smart. They just kept it two
and a half. Just take the two and a half
for my Simon says, but so listen, I love it, um.
While you were talking literally in the first thirty seconds,
I want to explain something. I went to the Action app,
clicked on the game, I pressed on the RAMS plus
(09:07):
two and a half, and then I used this new
technology we have that we integrate with fan Duel, who
is our sponsor. This is not sort of shameless. This
is a cool new tech that we're doing with them.
I clicked on it in the app for Action. It
took me to fan Duel. I made the bet in
about fifteen seconds. It was miraculous. And then I went
(09:28):
and tracted in the Action Network app. So everybody should
be getting an alert that I just made a pet
on the Rams plus two and a half. This whole
slate is full of home dogs and it's gonna make
us sick, and we're gonna have to bet every single
one of them. You can't, you can't not make these bets.
You can't sort of randomly choose. You gotta bet them
(09:48):
all if you want to take advantage of the full opportunity,
which brings me to the next game. Lions plus four
against the Philadelphia Eaggles. The lines have been getting a
lot of love, right You want to bet over six
and a half in the Lions, you gotta pay. That
(10:09):
is a weird world. We're paying minus to bet on
the Lions over. We love their offensive line. Jared Goff
is competent. We love their offensive weapons at skill positions
outside of golf. I am in love with Dan Campbell.
So this team is Detroit. We're gonna kick you in
the teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile
at you. And when you knock us down, we're gonna
(10:31):
get up. And on the way up, we're gonna buy
a knee cap off. All right, We're gonna take your
other knee cap before long, We're there going to be
the last one standing. A lot of hype on this team,
but they covered last year at an enormous rate for
a team that lost as often as they did. His
play calling is uncanny home dog money line taste, but
(10:52):
definitely lines plus four executive decision. How already the choice
between the unthinkable and the impossible exect decision. We've been
tagging this game since May, like when did a week
one lines come out? We've been saying Lions, Lions, Lions,
(11:13):
And this is what's interesting. As much as we've been
talking about and you and I were so immersed in
this stuff, we keep thinking everyone loves the Lions. Money wise,
the bets are on the Lions, but ticket wise the
bets are on the Eagles, So huge discrepancy. You've got
a wise guy trend here. Yeah, it's a little bit
of wise guy money movement. Right, I'm going at home
(11:34):
dog Eagles. We already talked about there. I mean we
just talked about the Bills being the hype team. I mean,
there is there a more hyped up team right now
than the Eagles than not of movement. Their line has
had this just last month. Uh, it's been been heavy,
and we talked about if you already missed the bets
on the Eagles that we were given out. We thought,
this is a nice time. You just wait and let
(11:55):
them maybe lose this game or lose the next game,
go one on one to start the season or oh
and two, and then you get good value on this
Egos team, where I do think this Egos team is
crazy talented. The early weeks here, these teams are not formed.
It's just chaos, and that's what me and Chad we're
kind of gonna get betting on a lot of chaos
early on here. And these are, like Chad just talked about,
evening match teams where I think they're both ascending in
(12:17):
the right direction. No doubt the Eagles have more talent
across the board. But the strength of this Detroit team
we already talked about. It's their offensive line. So yeah,
Jared golf five and oh a t s career. Uh
got lucky last year, right, Some people got a little
unlucky if they got the seven and a half not
the eight and a half because the number landed on
eight again gets the forty nine in week one. So
(12:39):
for me, I trust Golf Trust this offense and just
the fact that this number is ballooned up. It should
just be three, like this is a field goal game.
The Egos are clearly the better team, but more than
three points, that's that's a bit rich. So I like
what Chad saying, take the four, you can still get it.
Most people have to take a three and a half,
still love the three and a half, So on with
(13:00):
I'd take that three and a half Falcons plus five
at home against the Saints. I don't get this. Saints love.
What's happening right now? People are starting to feel like
maybe they have a better roster than the box. I
read that this morning. I cannot invest in Jamis. We
(13:23):
were in Atlanta Falcons podcast last year. The number has
moved up from three and a half to five and
a half. Of the money seventy of the bets on
the Saints. Why wouldn't we outo bet the Falcons here?
I was about to say, chat, what are you doing
just going through our favorite bets? But then I realized,
(13:45):
I think every game we have favorite bets because we've
just been talking about these games for three months. Atlanta,
it's just an overlooked team, Like the number, the number screams,
please anyone put money on me, like the books need.
People are coming in Atlanta. But it was funny that
as soon as it touched six, they took a lot
of money and moved it right back to five and
(14:06):
a half, which means they know the pros are just
waiting on that six. Again. It's a key number. Five
is kind of five and a half is kind of
a dead number. So to me, if you're like me
and Chad and you liked this Atlanta game, you don't
need to wait for the six. I don't think it's
gonna come. I think you're fine taking the five and
a half if you just want to get the bet
in and get it locked up. But simple strategy here
of divisional matchup, rookie head coach on the road with
(14:28):
Jamis Winston. Need I say more. It's like, you can
have all the Mariota slander you want. He has Drake London,
he's got Quitel Paterson the running back, he's got Kyle Pitts.
They have all these different weapons on offense. And if
you look at his grade inside the twenties, the man's
are literally one of the best red zone players in
the history of football. The guy just because of the
triple threat right the run pass option with him. So
(14:51):
for me, I I love getting a doubted Atlanta team
here at home opening day against a rookie head coach.
UH Chad. Chad gave us out forever ago about one
of his favorite bets. I had no doubt this is
probably one of one of the bets in our contest.
UH might have to be one of our Foxhold bets.
But I don't know if we can do three in
a row of our game show bets because it's like
(15:11):
Chad's railing them off here. But I do just love
this game. I feel like this will be one of
the less bet teams. Maybe the Jets will be get
the least amount of money. I could see Atlanta Week
one and get the least amount of money. Every game
is a game that we seem to love because there
are so many dogs. That's the problem. And we can
talk about this Jets game next. Oh no, we suck again.
(15:34):
Jets plus seven against the Ravens. This is the one
that I know we should bet it, but I don't
know who's playing for the Jets. I've got a lot
of investment in the Ravens. I think if there's any
game we could skip, it's this one because of the
uncertainty for the quarterback. I'm heavily invested. I've been betting
it for months as one of Like again, one of
(15:57):
the readers reached out to me, can you just throw
two bets into the app so we can start tracking
NFL bets. First two bets I did Ravens minus five
and a half Houston plus eight, And it's just the
exact same reason here with the Ravens. It's like I
thought this line was gonna move and it has. We
just we just knew people eventually catch up to this
Ravens team. I still think they're being under valued. I mean,
(16:19):
we don't know right now. We're meant to do on
this show on Tuesday. By Wednesday, won't know if it's
gonna be Zack Wilson. If this is Zack Wilson, a
guy who hasn't practiced for the last month, coming in
cold against this Ravens team with Lamar and this defense,
I mean, across the board, this is gonna be everyone's
survivor picked. Everyone will be all in on it. So yeah,
that's the scary part of it. But I do bet Shalk,
(16:41):
Like there are times I'd take a position when I
think that there's a bad number. Seven is good, like
that is where it should be. I would take the seven,
and I'd be concerned if it was Flacco, just because
of that. You know that veteran game. We always see
it all the time. These veteran quarterbacks have one good
game and then they suck for the next five. That's
just stinks for like a flac Oh moment against his
former team. But I would not change my position. If
(17:03):
you're already been in the Ravens and his Flacco, I
would still let a ride just for me and Chad.
I don't know if this would be one of our
picks in the contest, but if it's Zack Wilson, Chad's
gonna fight me on it. But I'm gonna be trying
to get it in there because it's like, literally the
kid has not practiced for a month until this week.
You know, that's really hard to do. If you're Tom Brady,
it's hard to do. If you're Zack Wilson, it's impossible.
(17:24):
You're gonna be fighting to get the Ravens even at
seven into the contest. If it's Zack Wilson. If it
was seven, I would If it was seven a half,
I would not be I would not try to put
it down. I think this Jets team might be one
of the worst teams in football. Yeah, I told you,
I'm I bet them for a worst record. Again, it's
just because the a f C is so brutally tough. Yeah,
(17:45):
the a f C is tough. And look, everyone overhyped them.
This was a team I bet under five and a
half at plus one thirty five because they won the
off season, they won the draft, and everybody bet the
over five and a half and it made no sense,
but everyone bought in because it's the fucking Jets, and
it's New York and half of everybody in the media
(18:05):
is enamored with them, as if it's like an ironic
team to root for because they're so bad. I wouldn't
mind taking the seven if it's If it's a Zach Wilson,
that'll be an interesting conversation we have on Sunday the
Bengals defending a f C champs against the Mitch true
Bisky lead Pittsburgh Steelers. There's six and a half point favorites.
(18:29):
This kind of feels right to me. Yeah, to me,
this is way too high. Just a lot of respect
to Joe what Joe did last year about realizing what's
what's the Bengals makeup? They win ugly close games. Now
you could say they've changed without the same team they
were last year. But the a f C North, it's
like it just never ends. It's literally a never ending
(18:52):
circle of these teams just play each other tough, tight games,
defensive battles, and we're getting the benefit of no one
wants to bet Pittsburgh right when they chatted last time
we checked. I think there are plus nine hundred for
this division. They're left for dead because no one's behind
the mixture of biscuit business and we talk all the time.
I look at that team again. One of the worst
offensive lines in football, no denying that, But at the
(19:15):
skill positions, you can't find more talent on offense. They
have a skill position at every position on from my
receiver tight end to running back. Mitch. We've seen it.
The guy can game manager game. So I was hoping
this wasn't at the seven, right. That's me being greedy
but happy to take the value six and a half.
I had this number three and a half. It's no
(19:36):
disrespect to Joe. I think this since an a team.
We I gave him out as a wild card team.
I do think they're gonna be good this year. This
is a trap, like we're gonna talk about a round
robin we do on Thursday. How do you not take
the money along in this Pittsburgh team a divisional game?
The team that lost in the super Bowl historically is
terrible A t s uh. It's it's just a bad
(19:57):
spot for this Bangles team to be in and and
the best parties that they're at home, which to me,
that's that's good for us. We want this Pittsburgh team
on the road because that's what you like with the defense,
that gets them fired up, being the bad boys in
that stadium. So yeah, it's yeah, and there's so many
other dogs we love. But if this makes into our contest,
you never know. But to me, this is an auto play.
You just play a divisional foe like this for a
(20:20):
final five. It'll be hard. I mean, I already know
we love the Lions and the Falcons at four and
five and a half and we're four games into this, right,
But you make some good points about Pittsburgh division foe Like,
when do these games ever land in the final score
at more than three? That tends to be the case.
(20:40):
So six and a half I think is a little
bit over inflation in the Bengals. Mike Tomlin. By the way,
rah Ras spot what ra ra? Mike Tomlin spot we
win the game? Were bodies right here today today we
almost went through an entire game without mentioning. Mike Tomlin
(21:02):
in an Underdog on the road Mike Tomlin, spot man.
We make the simple complex in this business, don't we
All of a sudden. If this isn't the first game
that we put in our contest, I think we're crazy.
And we're going to hear from people saying the Bengals
swept them last year and they dominated Pittsburgh and both matches.
That is a fair argument, but again, it's a new year.
(21:23):
It's like you have to adjust this year and this
is just even even if they dominated last year, this
is just a bad spot for this Bangals team. Not
so much. I think Pittsburgh approved that much. It's just
a lot more goes into it than simply on piece
of paper what these teams do against each other. We
shouldn't note that last year we got off to a
not great start, and I think we were we were
(21:45):
in our head, we weren't playing to our principles, which
as you've noted, we like to play home dogs, we
like to play ugly dogs, we like to play the value.
And so I think we just got to remind ourselves
every single day, every single show, every single week, like
stick with our guns, don't get caught up in the hype,
(22:09):
don't listen to the voices, go with what we know
and that then the Briggs, can you tell me how
often are pro actually wins any of these contests? Never?
It's just you need a lot of luck. But I'm
with you, like if we if if those glory let
there's those down days, like Chad saying I'm gonna need
chry to smack me around a little bit and be like, no,
stick stick to what it gets us to the that
(22:29):
what we need to do is like that dogs at home,
That's kind of what we gotta stick to because a
lot of times we get scared because we were like
losing on some of them. Just gotta stick stick with it.
Dolphins have moved up from two and a half point
favorites at home against the Patriots to three and a
half seventy of the money of the bets. This is
(22:50):
a pass for me. At three and a half, I
could see how you'd say, all right, take the Patriots.
Take the hook at plus three and a half. At
two and a half, I kind of love the Dolphins.
The money has moved too much for me. Yeah, it sucks.
I love the Dolphins. Like this was a no brainer.
Been betting it all summer two two and a half,
even bet it again at three because I was like, forget,
(23:11):
that's still a good number. Now you have to bet.
You have to bet the Patriots of three and a half.
It's like, how have we not We've all seen the data.
These rookie head coaches are just not good week one.
I think again it's our guy Evan put out that
arc collaborate Abrahams three and eighteen or three nineteen since
and week one straight up, it's just it's not good.
So scared of the only only thing pausing to me
(23:34):
is honestly that the coaching like Bill Belichick against a
rookie head coach week one scary. But Miami talent wise
is so far above better than this Patriots team, and
everything Miami does well. Speed is the biggest weakness of
this new England team. Like people are gonna be blown
away how fast this Miami team is. It's like it's
(23:55):
gonna to be very interesting to see how this new
England team tries to defend it as they are bad
on defense now, Like people don't realize that that's one
of their bigger weaknesses now is their defense. So again,
their fronts good, but their back end is not that good.
So I love Miami, but like Chad said, we're gonna
pass on this one. This next game, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor
Lawrence visiting the Washington Commanders. This game has dropped. The
(24:20):
Jags opened as four point dogs, they're now two and
a half. Anyone who is new to the podcast should
know Simon and I have an irrational love for the
Jaguars right now. My theory is that Doug Peterson was
the genius on that Eagles team, and he's the one
who coached Nick Foles to greatness, not Frank Reich who's
(24:40):
gotten a lot of the credit as the offensive coordinator
on that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl. Doug
Peterson would with Trevor Lawrence who could potentially be a
generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar
than what Joe Burrow did last year. Um, it happens.
It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus
(25:02):
at seventy one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
We both like the Jags as long as shots to
win their division, the a f C South. Everything is
on the Jags right now. That's and money. So do
(25:23):
you still like it at two and a half? And like,
that's what sucks about doing the show this week one.
It's like some of these numbers have just moved too much. Yes,
we are all in on the Jaguars. They should lose
this game. Like the Washington Commanders are pretty much the
same exact team as the Jaguars are for the most part, honestly,
Like you just look it on paper. Again, I want
I love the shot on Carson Wentz because it's fun,
(25:45):
He's not that terrible, and they have pretty pretty good
weapons on this Washington team. So yeah, at four points,
this was a really really good value and an easy pick.
Even at three points that probably would have taken the Jaguars.
But I have this game at and a half. Now
there's a lot the move is shifted to the Commanders.
I just won't bet it because I'm already invest in
(26:06):
the Jaguars. But yeah, I'm terrified, Like it feels like
we're about to have the Jaguars start. Oh one chat,
I'm gonna feel like an idiot. But coming into us,
I love this game because it was just it's just
too egally evenly match teams where a number should have
been three two and a half because again, there's no
real home field advantage. Right for Washington, their fans they
hate them, like they're they really calling themselves the Commies.
They just they do not like this organization. So we
(26:29):
talked about it. I don't know how many times when
we betting on Washington. Eventually the value is going to
be there and we will have to take Washington. They're
probably my least favorite team to bet on this season
until Deshaun Watson comes back. For right now, Washington, I
just I hate betting on So I'm gonna pass on
this all right. We're gonna have to pass on the
Jags as much as we love them. Now we're gonna
(26:49):
have to spend a couple of minutes talking about a team.
For people who don't know. Simon and I are on
a show called Convince Me every Sunday at eleven a
m Eastern. You can catch it on Twitter, on the
Action Network Candle. You can catch it in the Action
Network app. It's me, It's Simon, It's Chris Raban, It's
(27:11):
Sean Kerner, it's Darren Rivel, it's Samantha Prividi. We're all
talking about the games. We did a preview show last week.
I kind of love the Niners to represent the NFC
in the Super Bowl right now. They're sixteen to want
to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the
Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus
(27:32):
seven in this spot. If not for my anti Bears
bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play
to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up,
the bests on the Niners sixty eight of the money
(27:52):
on the Bears, So the wise guys see it that
way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward.
It's one of the few games I've met like a
cow Uh. Took took forty nine first half, took Bears
for the game. I just didn't really know what to
do with it. It's stinks. This line stinks. I don't
get why I didn't stay at seven. Why is it
not st going up and stayed up? Who is betting
(28:13):
the Bears? Other their professionals, like other than Bears fans
who are betting. I just don't I don't get what
people are seeing this. I guess because they had that
one end of the game, end of the preseason fields
through the three touchdowns. But it's like the talent level
on these two teams, it's not comparable, like it's it's
really night and day. Um. The Bears did draft good though,
(28:33):
chat like you're you should be excited about this regime
right now because they are apparently making good draft picks.
They had no good pick slash. I don't think they
had a first round pick right, and they end up
getting two guys that are starting for you this year
on defense, which again could be scary, but they've looked
they've played well, uh this preseason. So to me, I
don't know what to really do with this Bears team
because I want to fade them heavily. But taking a
(28:56):
I guess you could say is the second year quarterback
in Trey Lance take him in his first start of
the year on the road. I mean, that's that's a
lot to ask of him. So I do think first
half is a smart bet. With the sport Owners team,
they can come out, Kyle can scheme up the first
thirty place for him. It's once he goes off off,
you know script, and he's in the second half. That's
him a little worried about Trey Lance. So to me,
(29:18):
if you're gonna bet this game, you can bet it
like I am. I'm just doing first half for Niners
and then I'll take the Bears for the full game,
just because I feel like this game is gonna land
on six. It's just the way the books have been
keeping it at that number. It's as if they know
something like this game will be closer than people think.
But we do have to play the Bears at plus seven. Yeah, yeah,
no doubt, but you can't. You just can't ignore it. Yeah,
(29:44):
and again it's this would be this is probably my
second or third smallest bet because I just don't don't
really like this Bears team, like we talked about it.
But there's gonna be a bunch of times me and
Ted are gonna have to bet the number. And we've
just seen the time and time again the Bears at home,
because you when you have to take this team like
they're a bad team, where they're at home, that's when
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West Virginia. The Baker Ball Panthers numbers come down by
the way well and opened it four a while ago,
but with Baker has been you know, the two and
a half range. Now it's minus two playing Jacobe Brissette
and the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield, I'm gonna fuck him
up revenge. I'm a huge Panthers fan. I like the
(32:16):
over six and a half. I think Baker is an
interesting long shot for a variety of passing props. Why
aren't I taking the Panthers minus two here is a
short home favorite. In fact, for the record, you can
check in the action app. I did take him to
two and a half. Another game where I kind of
bet early. We all kind of bet Carolina early on
because they were plus three plus four, just because at
(32:38):
the time Watson was gonna play. And then as the
months rolled on, the numbers started coming down, and then
once they traded for Baker flipped and then once the
Watson news came out, Chad said, it shot up the
four three and a half. The pros beded back down
because it's like, this is not that I'm saying this
is your season, Carolina, but you have to start off good,
like this team needs to start hot with Baker. I
(33:00):
want to know you need to start that way. So
I don't like the position I'm in with this Carolina
team that I feel like they have the pressure on them,
that the Browns will be playing free. Everyone's awful. The
expectations are very low. Jakober said it is not a
good quarterback. So yeah, blind picking, I would take Carolina.
But this is again another one of these very small
(33:20):
bets for me. I just I just don't know what
to really do with this game because I don't know
what I'm getting from this Browns team. They on paper,
they have more talent to this Carolina team, but we've
seen Baker like Baker with talent around him to make
things happen. Again, he took this Brown's team just two
years ago the NFC Championship games, So I get why
Chad so hyped in this Carolina team. I'm excited just
(33:40):
to wait and see before I start putting six figures
or five figures into Baker Mayfield led Carolina Panthers when
he's healthy and has talent. The ceiling for Baker Mayfield
is consistently higher, considerably higher than he's being given credit for.
That's really just the bottom line. He just makes the
(34:00):
dumbest fucking decisions. Chad's gonna have a moment, Baker's gonna
throw a pick, and you're like, fuck Baker, I fucking
hate this guy. I feel like there's so much pressure
on Carolina in just week one them in Miami. I
feel like, are the two teams of the highest pressure,
Like Miami needs to beat in New England to start
the year or man, people are gonna lose their minds
down there in Miami. You mentioned this off the top.
(34:20):
The Texans number has moved the Texans against the Colt
to move from eight and a half to seven. I
bet the Texans at plus eight and a half on Sunday,
it's now Tuesday, it's at seven. I'm looking at Action
network dot com right now, and you can get all
this information on the site and in the app. So
when I quote percentage of bets percentage of money, I'm
(34:43):
getting it off of Actions properties. The biggest delta between
number of bets and percent of money is on the Texans.
Of the bets are on the Texans. So basically the
public are betting on the Texans over the Olds, but
nine percent of the money of the money is generally
(35:06):
that's the wise guys biggest delta, second biggest delta. Our
third biggest delta is the Bears and the Niners, and
we'll get to the second one in a little bit.
We haven't gotten there yet. Even at seven, I'd play
the Texans. They're better than we think. They performed better
than we thought they would last year. We believe in
Davis Mills is a quarterback. Frank Reich. His team is
(35:29):
always underperform. I'm a mind that Frank Wright probably isn't
as good a coach as everyone believes him to be.
His teams have generally underperformed, even though he's had eight quarterbacks. Like,
that's your job, dude. You play the guys you got
and then you win. Give me the Texans here. I
like him at seven, probably the lowest I like him,
but I like him at seven. Yeah, and Frank Reich
(35:49):
has never covered Week one. And as I mean, it's
a young coaching career, it's what year four formed. But again,
these teams have historically come out slow. Last year, I
think their own four colts start the year. So we
love all things about this Houston team. We already checking,
already touched on it. We just knew this was a
bad number. We're lucky we both locked in an eight
and a half. This was my second best bet I
gave out, So I give off the rams um on
(36:11):
the action app writing it. And then this is the
other pick I gave out, just the fact that said
in the article, eight and a half is just too
many points in the divisional game Week one between these
two teams. That again the Colts they beat him last year. Good,
they beat their crap out of Houston. They beat him
twice last year. I think both times were over thirty points.
This Houston team is completely different, the things they've added,
(36:32):
the update they've done on defense. Again, say what you
want about Lovey Smith. I do think he is a
smart defensive mind. I just like this Houston team and
Chat I might begin sucked in here, I might be
drinking too much of the kool aid, but all the
pros are with us. Like I've every product talked to,
They've loved this number and they were gonna come in
heavy on it this week, and they did so. The
number dropped a seven. It's gonna half. Other pros came
(36:54):
back on the other side, right get a middle position
at that six and a half. They bet it back
up to seven Fandel, I believe that's seven and a
half right now in Jersey, and that number keeps fluctuating.
So to me, if you didn't get the day and
a half, you could wait. But it's a little risky
because it could drop down a six and a half
and that crossed another key number of seven, so you
could get seven half of fandor right now. I would
grab that just in case. But yeah, no brainer played
(37:17):
divisional game at home. Dog. I love it. My only
pause right now is the fact that, shoot, it's so
much love for Houston, like all every proctol. I haven't
talked to a single pro that's on the Colts, which
is very rare because usually there's a couple of guys
you like chalk a little scary. It feels like I'm again,
I'm heavily invested in this, uh this this Houston team
(37:39):
just for a week one. But you can't not take
that number. Like Chad said, it's such a big number
for week one. The Raiders very interesting team. I know
how much you love the Raiders. They're on the road
at the Chargers. Las Vegas is a three and a
half point underdog, getting a preponderance of the money against
the Chargers team that everyone believes might be the most
(38:02):
talented top to bottom roster in the NFL. And if
there is anyone who was expected to win the division
other than the Chiefs, probably the best division in the
a f C West with four fantastic quarterbacks, it is
the Los Angeles Chargers. This is probably a pass for me. Yeah,
I'll pass too, because this line stinks like to me,
(38:23):
they're they're begging me to take this Raider's team. They
know I want to take that three and have so bad.
But I look at a team in Vegas that have
a new head coach learning a new scheme on the road,
they probably have more fans though honestly right they'll probably
have more fans in the Chargers in l A. But
I feel like this is a good spot to take
this Chargers team. You got Herbert at home with the
(38:44):
head coach that they're running the same system as that
it last year him in his OUFC. So I wish
I could bet it. I wish I had the confidence
take this Chargers team. There's just other games that I
like better. So I will be betting the Chargers, but
not not going to be one of the five We
we land the next game on the docket here, and
I just want to say, we thought there'd be so
(39:05):
many games that we want to bet. The truth is,
I think there's right now three that we feel really
good about, four that we're like maybe, so it's not
as cut and dry as we thought, well it is.
I'm just I'm trying to keep the show, you know,
excitement go as we go on here. All right, Vikings
plus one and a half against the Packers. I'm surprised
(39:30):
um this this number has moved down and opened a
two and a half. I'm surprised at the amount of
money coming in on the Packers because to me, I
don't like this game because I think we've lost value
and I want to bet the best of the number.
But the Vikings are the side here, you know, and
this is I'll get in trouble. I break my own rules,
like I like Green Bay. I just there's two bunch
(39:51):
being made about the green Bay wide receivers and it's
like as if people don't realize there's always guys living,
Like people don't even know who Greg Jennings is, lester
of certain age, like that guy left. Jordy Nelson stepped
up and then that a guy named Jones stepped up,
and then Davante Adams stepped up. There's just always the
next guy up for Green Bay at wide receiver, Like
they find these guys and Rogers makes them great. So
(40:14):
I saw the under get hit and I saw in
Minnesota get hit. So that's professional bets and professional movement.
So if you want to beg with Green Bay with me,
you just understand you're going against guys like Chad and
other pros that are like you're taking a home dog divisionally,
you blindly bet it. I think this number should be three.
I just I think there's too much hype on this
Vikings team. Even professionals. They're like looking at this offense. Oh,
(40:37):
their new o c their new head coach, he's he's
the right hand man to McVeigh. This guy's new scheme
is gonna really change his whole Vikings outlook. And it's
still at the end of the day, it's still Kirk Cousins.
So I'm I'm great with taking Rogers. I'll be down
four or up four in the fourth quarter and somehow
Kirk's gonna help me win this bet. So Chad's me
sweating Kirk I'll be sweating Rogers and we'll see who's
(41:00):
mount come Monday. Oh, I haven't bet it yet. Don't
talk about our principles all the time. And we've got
a couple of games here in the Ravens and in
the Packers. It's so clearly we should be betting from
a historical precedent point of view the home dog, and
(41:21):
yet the matchup is making you say take the favorite.
And since divisional home dogs five and oh a t
s week one, going against that trend to which again
it's scary, but you are. I gotta trust the numbers. Brother,
I got it at three. It's it's one and a half. Oh,
you're a professional. The Giants, Uh, this is the second
(41:44):
biggest differential between money and bets. The bets on the
Titans at minus five and a half of the bets
on the Giants cent of the money A lot of
professionals like in the Giants here. I can't do it.
I people are gonna hate me because I hate on
their teams. But I just I don't get the Giants hype.
(42:06):
I don't get it either. I'm excited, right, excited to
see what they do this year? Like this is it
for Daniel Jones and like that as a fan, that's
must be nice for Giants fans. I know this is
it like either this kids actually finally be good with
a good head coach, well was just not good and
like that's it. But man, everyone trying to hype up
their offensive lines better, everyone trying to take a better
(42:28):
you're for Barkley. It's just like, I just don't know
what's backing up these statements. Uh, Tennessee to me is
still a very good team. Number probably should be six.
I like that it's stayed a five and a half.
I definitely think it's tsue and Chad just said a
lot of money is coming on on the neverb really
hasn't move much, which means the books are kind of
the same thing. They're kind of shruggling their shoulders, being like,
(42:48):
we're happy to be needing the Tennessee against the Giants here.
This is a position we don't mind taking. So yeah,
it's not when I've heavily bet, but I have I've
had bet this Tennessee team. And again, if you're a
big teaser guy, don't mind taking this one as a teaser,
or you just do a money line parlay with them, uh,
because I could see it being closer than we believe,
just because again Tennessee loss a J. Brown, Like, we
(43:09):
don't really know where getting from the wire receiver position.
With them, we do know is we have a solid
o line with Derrick Henry and a better quarterback and
a better head coach. Right, So I do think it's
interesting that the the pros again, people are gonna see
this Week one, a lot of people are gonna betting
what they're hoping to happen this season, which is totally
relevant to Week one. You just simply should be playing
this week alone. So yeah, trying to be not biased
(43:31):
because I am excited for this Giants team because like again,
they they to me have no expectations. It's kind of
a fun year for them where it's they're gonna be
really good or they're just gonna be absolutely crap again,
but would not be putting money on them. Give me,
give me six and a half. Seven, I'm there on
the Giants, but a five and a half, I think
you gotta take Tennessee. I'm gonna foreshadow something I think
the Titans this week and we'll talk about this on Thursday.
(43:56):
Interesting survivor choice. Do you think about this positions Other
teams are in who you might want to pick and
survivor they're in trap spots, and the Titans are a
team you might want to get rid of early and
they're not in a trap spot. Rights, that's a good one.
But when we're gonna play the Ravens again, we have
to look to the schedule. Well, we'll get to it
on Thursday. Chiefs are six point favorites over the Cardinals
(44:22):
in Arizona. Bets and money on the Chiefs. I know
you love the Chiefs. I know I know how much
you love the Chiefs. The backlash to the backlash against
Patrick Mahomes is alive and well on the Favorites podcast.
This kind of feels foxholy to me. What like taking Arizona,
Oh God, Chad, I mean Chad's right and saying you
(44:44):
bet the number here, But I had made this number six.
I think you're still getting good value on the Chiefs.
And it was funny when I put it in. Uh, Basically,
Chad has me do this thing with other guys that
work at Action. We put in like an NFL power
rating thing they plug into the app. Everyone else had
three half four and I just came in with six.
I was just like, no, this number should be six.
And it looked crazy because at the time I think
(45:05):
the number was three, and then I went up to
three and a half, and then all of a sudden
this week it shot up to five and a half six.
So I think it's good where it is at. Like,
I like this Chief's team. I like the fact that
they have upgraded. The only reason with Chad that you
should maybe think about taking Arizona here is no one
likes them. They're kind of being hated on by everybody.
No one's taking them their division, no one. He's talking
(45:28):
about them secretly. They're greatest strength is running the ball,
like they ran the ball a lot last year. Connor,
they're running back. I think he had sixteen touchdowns rushing.
That's a huge weapon. And we know this Chief's team
that was their Achilles Hill last year. You could pick
up five eclips. So that's the fear, right if you're
if you're taking a big road favorite that can't stop
(45:50):
the run, that's a recipe for disaster. So and Chad,
Chad was Chad saying, it's true, you're like you're always
supposed to take Arizona here. See me, I just don't
think there's value yet. If they hit seven, I I
will take a position on Arizona, no doubt. But still
at six, I still think you're getting good value on
the Chief's team. Well, listen, we got two other games
that are foxholes, and one of them there's no way
(46:13):
we're taking. I'm putting the Cardinals down as a potential
for our top five. No, there's no chance Cardinals. It's
a good spot. It's good spot. Buccane years two and
a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night.
Tom Brady's back. The Cowboys are back. The Cowboys their
home dogs. I mean the Cowboys are the side. Yeah,
(46:37):
it sucks, like I hate betting a team like this
that just had so much negativity heading into the season.
But lucky for us, Tampas had the same exact thing.
They just had a lot of drama in this camp.
Dak I just saw crazy stat career completion percentage against
Tampa Bay. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them.
Last year, the all hype team with Tampa the only
(46:59):
beat them by two and week one, we're exactly where
we were last year, right, except we're at home with
this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We
gotta do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's
just no doubt about it. No one's gonna be betting
this game Sunday night, taking Dallas going to the foxhole.
(47:19):
Let's climb down into the foxhole like it's us and
it's us in Cowboy fans, like, I mean literally, they
just signed a four year old man to play left
tackle for them in Jason Peters, a guy who was
on his couch all summer. Another team gave him a
call and Dallas did so. Dallas definitely is a nice spot.
But you know, for Week one, weird things are happening.
(47:41):
We're getting home dog that we can't really disagree that
this feels gross, right, Chet Like this is probably the
This to me feels like the most forced one going
against Brady and week one. But they just have had
so much turmoil and Tampa. It's like it's hard to
back him until they get into a groove in this season.
I've been eyeing this game for weeks. Every single time
(48:01):
I look at the board and I see the two
and a half, it feels like, of course, I got
to take the Cowboys and I have not. It's one
of the games I have not pulled the trigger on.
I just I haven't been able to do it. If
you're really that scared, that's a good tease game, then,
like if you don't want to bet it straight Again,
Stucky is our guy for teasers. I feel like you'll
have this one in there, because again, eight and a
(48:22):
half on a home dog. I I understand I'm not
a huge teas guy, but I would definitely tease Dallas.
That's a good number for a home team. Listen to
Stucky and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. It's brilliant.
Their Thursday episode where they create their six pack of
best bets is so good. You can also hear Stucky
and Colin Wilson on The Big Bets on Campus pod
(48:44):
previewing the college games. All right, Russell Wilson is visiting
his old team, the Seattle Seahawks. Who's playing quarterback for
the Seahawks? Is it really Gino Smith? Did I dream that? Yeah?
Thank god? Is Geno Smith not Drew Lock. The most
disgusting thing we can do here is take the Seahawks.
(49:04):
It almost at six and a half right now. It
almost feels negligent if we don't and it's probably of
those sick things, or if I lose and that Cowboys bet,
I'm gonna go probably even heavier on this game because
I'll just be so mad where it's like, come on,
like the one of these dogs gotta win big in
prime time. Seahawks gross like this, this is one of
(49:25):
the grosser bets. This is the Jets. Like, if you're
bet two teams this week that take the biggest amount
of balls and the grossest bet you can make, it's
probably this is the Jets. It's just disgusting. The Seahawks
on paper, bad defense, offense not terrible, Like they got
the weapons that penny in the backfield, they got tire locket,
It's like they got the weapons. Canino get it there.
(49:46):
But to me, the biggest thing is it's it's Russ
first start. It's gotta be so weird, Like again, the
Matt Ryan thing's gonna be weird too, Matt Ryan fourteen
years in the land, the first game for the Colts.
It's gonna be weird, walking out, the guys in locker room,
all of it, Like that's weird. It how how do
we not feel like this is gonna strangest thing I
have for Russell Wilson going back to where all those memories,
all those amazing things happened. Brady, what was that? What
(50:08):
do he went by two points against New England when
he went back last year against Mac Jones, like we've
just seen even the strongest mental guy in the world,
Tom Brady, he broke and he talked about it affected
him after the game. He said it was the weirdest
thing ever be another sideline looking at the stands. That's
kind of rare. And russ having people that loved him
for ten years curse on him out talking ship to
(50:28):
him going to be weird. So I love this number
all the way down to four and a half. It's
it's gross people, But primetime Island games, you're getting a
dog and I guess all hype team in Denver, another
team that's just been talked about all summer take it.
This number has just been ballooned up on the simple
fact they have to protect against teasers and they know
the public is gonna come back heavy on this game, especially.
(50:50):
I mean if the Bucks lose, this number could jump
to seven again, which it was at and it came
down when Gino's name. So I like it at six
and a half. But if you don't want to wait,
you wanna wait to live it. See see if you
get seven, I get it, because I do think I
could get back up there. I think it's fitting that
we end a disgusting show convincing ourselves that Seattle plus
six and a half is not only a great play,
(51:11):
but it may be one of our top five picks
when we narrow it down on Thursday. It's gonna be interesting.
We got a couple of conversations going on in here
when on Thursday and we talked about sharp calls, which
is you will get over the next forty eight hours
a lot of phone calls from professional betters who listen
to the podcast. Not so much week one, but as
(51:32):
the season goes along, it's gonna be a lot more.
But like, yeah, the only guys are gonna calling me.
Your guys are already talked ship to me about their picks.
They will call and they will either confirm what we're
saying or trash what we're saying. It's gonna be no confirmations.
It's only gonna be negative. Week one, Well, we live
for the negative. It hypes us up. Hit people in
the fucking mouth. Run it up there, fucking throat. That's it.
(51:59):
We got through. I was nervous about this. We got
through the full slate. We had things to say about
every game. Here we go, brother, This has been the
favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman, He's
Simon Hunter for producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. Download the podcast
from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.
(52:21):
Download the Action Network app. Take advantage of all the
tech that we're linked with our sponsor FanDuel on quick slip,
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The Big Bets on Campus podcast rate review, subscribe, but
leave us five stars. Say whatever you want feedback as
a gift until Thursday. I love you,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!