The Favorites - NFL Week 11 Betting Preview

Can the Kansas City Chiefs stay undefeated in Buffalo? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are ready to tackle this question and all things betting for NFL Week 11. Together they discuss every other game on the board, including rock bottom for the Jaguars and Titans, a classic AFC North battle, and a Lone Star State primetime matchup that has everyone a little depressed. 

Plus, we get a recap of Week 10 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
or Tuesday, Week eleven episode. We're going to break down
the entire slate of NFL games. We're going to discuss
our exact decision our Simon says, going to start to
narrow down the option for a five faves to put
in The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

(00:30):
Pick Them Contests two and three week. This past week,
Week ten, Matthew Stafford, he was our hero this week.
He could not light the magic lamp on our behalf again.
The Rams, who we had at minus one and a half,
kicked five field goals, fumbled their way out of scoring range,

(00:53):
penalized themselves out of a made field goal allowed in
third and twenty five conversion. Couldn't get those of us
who maybe bet the Rams plus three and a half
live through the back door from the Dolphins twelve with
a minute left, truly dominated Miami and the box score
and lost twenty three to Fife. Lie from Mark Tommy

(01:18):
John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion mikem Padre, my bff professional better sim In
Hunter L.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
So I'm in Hey Chad, what's up? Brother dude?

Speaker 1 (01:32):
Nine am this morning I get a text from my
personal Adam Schefter, who probably should have been focusing on
math at that moment, but instead was texting me that
the Chicago Bears talking about my kid. By the way,
at school. The Chicago Bears fired Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator.

(01:54):
We will discuss like for the purposes of the betting conversation.
Does this really matter as a life Bears fans. I
think this is treating the symptom, not the disease. It's
a classic Bears cheap out. It goes back for me
to whin they drafted Caleb Williams the number one question
why keep Matt ibra fluse? The main reason is because

(02:17):
mccaskey's are cheap, and they didn't want to fire a
coach with a year left on his deal and then
have to pay two coaches at one time. But he
had been a middling coach, an uninspiring coach, an uninspiring
choice for two seasons, and you draft one of the
most dynamic passers in a generation. Even if Caleb is
everything we hope he would be, the odds of a

(02:38):
rookie quarterback leading his team's success are so freaking low.
Jaen Daniels is the exception. CJ. Stroud is the exception.
That is why we call him exception. No, this is
not what happens. So after year one, what's the scenario?
You are firing the coach and the whole staff starting
again in year two of Caleb's deal. You waited nearly

(03:01):
half of his rookie deal at that point. I'm so
frustrated with the McCaskey family. I'm so frustrated with the
decision to not pay out Matt Ebrifluse and hire a
new coach. Now they're fire and Waldron who is the
head scratcher of a hire anyways, we know they won't
backfill the new play caller. Simon you ready for this?

(03:21):
Do you know who the new play caller is?

Speaker 2 (03:23):
I do not.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
Thomas Brown. The name doesn't sound familiar. Thomas Brown has
an extensive amount of experience calling plays for number one
overall picks. Because who can forget how amazing Bryce Young
played last year and the way he dominated opponents and
grew his confidence playing for Thomas Brown. Brown can bring

(03:48):
that guidance and that magic to Caleb Williams. This team
is a training wreck for eight more weeks. What a
fucking waste.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
It is.

Speaker 3 (03:58):
But it's also the season's going according to how we
thought it would, right. We bet they're under for the
win total just because it was gonna be tough in
this division. Do we know it was the best division
of football Chad, No, So it's it's only gonna get worse.
I don't think this is really a that big of
a deal, but I like the move for them, just
because the players apparently went to the head coach and

(04:18):
talked to him and just said, we need to basically
fire Shane Walder.

Speaker 2 (04:21):
And they did it.

Speaker 3 (04:22):
So to me, the fact that it's veteran players like
Keenan Allen and guys like that DJ Moore going in.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
There, that's a big deal.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
Like those guys, they're not a rookie, they're not scared
to speak up. They have been in the league a
long time. They've seen a lot of offense. So yeah,
obviously you're pissed off, but this could sparkle you. Guys
could steal this game, and that's that's something that the
line movements told us that the professionals clearly like this
move from the Bears cause they've been betting.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
We're gonna dig into that. I definitely want to focus
on that and the opportunity and the possibility.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (04:54):
I don't want to focus on the negative.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
You know, well, listen, you know, I'm a very rationally
optimistic person. It's very hard for me to see the
downside in just about anything. So I'm gonna pull myself
up from the muck. We're gonna find a way to
get through this. We're gonna see the opportunity potentially betting

(05:18):
on the Bears. We're gonna recap the results of week
ten in our contest. We're gonna announce the winner of
our weekly cash prize. If you haven't, you still can
sign up for the Favorites Podcast, one hundred thousand dollars
pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three sixty five.
Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. We got up on
the other side of this atter read Huge Announcement. Huge

(05:39):
Announcement coming up first. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast
is presented by bet three sixty five and now new
Bet three sixty five customers get one hundred and fifty
dollars and bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be is

(06:00):
don spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be
twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditions

(06:20):
restrictions apply. Congrats Week ten first place winner Ryane not Ryan.
I wonder if this guy was named after Ryan Samberg.
Ryan not Ryan went five and oh and missed the
Monday Night football tiebreaker by one yard. He takes home
our weekly thousand dollars cash prize. Nice job, Ryane, and

(06:44):
as always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's cuple
ward to the entry that finished dead fucking last in
the contest.

Speaker 4 (06:50):
Have you had about the Lords loser?

Speaker 1 (06:54):
He's a Louis about he still kids on try. This
week's producer Cup goes to JJ Stanton, who went zero
to five missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and eighty
three yards. JJ ease email out producer podcasts, actionnetwork dot com,
name your price. All right, here's the bit of business.

(07:15):
We had so much fun, Simon last year doing our
live events getting together with fans. We did them twice
last season, once during the playoffs, once during the regular season.
We are doing another live event, and this time, Simon,
we are doing it in your hometown, the fighting city

(07:35):
of Philadelphia. We are coming to Philly, baby, the city
of brotherly love, which makes sense because you are my bff,
you are my capadre, you are my brother in arms. Embedding,
we're nailing down the final details. There will be an
RSVP website. It's coming soon. If you were in North Jersey,
if you were come on down. If you were in
South Jersey, come across the bridge. If you were in Philly,

(07:58):
come visit us. We're gonna be in Center City one
month from today, December twelfth, We're going to a bar
called Wicked Wolf right there in Center City, drinks, live
Q and A with me Simon, Producer Matt Mitchell. It's

(08:19):
basically a happy hour event five pm to seven pm.
Come hang out with us. Then we're all going to
hang out for the Thursday night football game Rams Niners.
Mark your calendars now, come join us. It's going to
be a blast. We're going to have some drinks, we're
gonna do a Q and A about the game, anything
else that's going on. Then we're going to watch a

(08:39):
great matchup between the Rams and the Niners that we
no doubt know. We'll have playoff implications. We'll let you
know when, and we're to RSVP in the days ahead.
All right, enough preamble, Simon. When I bought tickets for
my kids first NFL game to be at the Link
on Thursday night, Washington, Philadelphia as part of our When

(09:00):
Millman Turns eighteen three days, three Games sportacular, I did
not expect to get a Jaden Daniels Jalen Hurts battle
for first place, epic showdown, and yet this is what
we got. I got Jaden Daniels generational talent. I got

(09:23):
Philly fan base mentally on the edge because of Nick Sirianni.
Why has this line moved from three to three and
a half.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
It's a short weekend, they're the home team, right, that's
usually we always talk about that. That's such a big deal.
So yeah, I'm shocked by it because it's so tempting
now to take that's Washington on this number, just because
this Eagles team has struggled against bad teams closing out
bad teams, let alone good offenses. But the books know that,
so they've moved this number just because they obviously need

(09:52):
some Washington money. It's been all Eagles money. But that
to me made sun Chat when it was at three, right, Like,
if it's three, you take the Eagles in that spot
against a young, inexperienced Washington team that's never been in
the spot before.

Speaker 2 (10:04):
And we talked about it last week. Pittsburgh was a
true first test for this team.

Speaker 3 (10:10):
Honestly though, I look back and that Arizona win was
a big deal win. Right, We've seen how good Arizona
has become. But that Pittsburgh game was a true test
because that's a legit defense and as good as James
Daniels did. He did struggle a little bit. This Eagles
secondary is pretty tough. Like these rookies we brought in,
they've been really good and this this defense has changed.

(10:30):
And you know, the linebackers we've batted to this team
have been good this year. So I knew coming in
it was gonna take a while for these guys learn
fangs defense. And you know that's the story when learning
a new defense. But that could be why the early
money has come in. Right, you have an Eagles team
at home that perceived to be the better team. They've
been here before as well, right, I mean, this is

(10:51):
not going to be new to Hurts playing for the division.

Speaker 2 (10:54):
That's what this game is.

Speaker 3 (10:55):
So for the Eagles, this feels like a must win.
With Washington, it really doesn't. I could still see that
even with their schedule, they will still be in this
to win the division against the Eagles. Eagles, they have
tough games remaining, so to me, this is more important
to them.

Speaker 2 (11:08):
This is a must win to them.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
Kind of makes sense that they were resting guys in
the third quarter because.

Speaker 2 (11:13):
You know, this is such a big deal.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
There was no reason to keep trotting Hurts out there
against that Dallas team. On the flip side, Washington was
in a battle. Like we talked about, that was a
playoff game until last second. It's a big deal in
a short week. So I'll probably eventually take this three
and a half. I'll probably give in, as you say
it right now, if this goes back to three, I'll
happily take the Eagles side.

Speaker 1 (11:38):
I'm probably gonna end up on the three and a half.
I'm hoping that some public exuberants for Jayden Daniels comes
in on Thursday. But you just said two things that
are really interesting, And when I was doing some research,
this is what stood out to me too. The Eagle
secondary Mitchell and Cooper Dejen. Cooper Degen right now is

(12:04):
the according to Pro Football Focus, the second highest rated
defensive back in coverage in the NFL this year. That's
how good he's been. And and he was getting pimped
a little bit during that Cowboys game. He made some
nice plays. He recovered the Ezekiel Elliott Fumbo, but Mitchell
made really nice plays and coverage.

Speaker 4 (12:24):
Two.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
But here's the other thing. We talked about Vic Fangio
and this defense, and we had sort of said this
team is still learning how to play this defense, and
we've seen them getting better and better their past car
their past rush as all of a sudden elite right
top range pass rush. According to Pro Football Focus, Jalen

(12:47):
Carter second race second rated interior defensive player for pass rush.
He's one year too late to guarantee us his Rookie
of the Year for defensive Rookie of the Year, which
is disappointing, but he's gotten really, really good. So those

(13:12):
I think are two reasons also why the number moved
a little bit.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
Yeah, Eagles are a better team there.

Speaker 3 (13:16):
We knew they were gonna be a better team coming
of the season, especially if the players they took, like
we talking the secondary worked out for him and it has.
That was the biggest hole we talked coming in the season.
They could not stop anyone in the middle of the field. Defensively,
they attacked that this offseason. Offensively, they couldn't pass against
the blitz or Itch was terrible against the Blitz. They
figured that out as well. So it's like a team

(13:37):
that we thought we better. The surprise of the season
has been Washington. So it just feels like all the
pressure in this matchup's definitely on the Eagles. And that's why,
like you just said, it's like I don't mind taking
the three and a half if we lose it. It's like, well,
so what did you think was gonna happen?

Speaker 2 (13:51):
The Eagles are the better team here.

Speaker 3 (13:52):
It's just really about playing this number where this Eagles team,
I don't trust him this year.

Speaker 2 (13:55):
I just haven't.

Speaker 3 (13:56):
I know they've turned things around here, but like this
just seems like a game they would let down and disappoint.
So I see we were coming one and take the
three and a half, but I honestly would be more
comfortable taking the three. So I'm hoping it gets back
to the three because it it seems like a good
spot to keep fading this Washington team. That's just I
mean again, we talked about going to last week they
were five to zero. Is a favorite straight up and
against the spread with a rookie quarterback. That was just

(14:18):
one of the crazy things we'd ever said. It makes
sense for them to start coming back down to earth
here as we get later into the season.

Speaker 1 (14:23):
Well, look the other thing we said, and it's a
good transition to the Steelers and the Ravens, which is
the next game. The other thing we said about the
Commanders last week, and it's why we liked the Steelers
last week, is the Steelers by far the best pass
rush the Commanders would be facing so far this year,
and it kind of showed like Jaden Daniels was rushed

(14:44):
a lot, he was sacked, They were in the backfield.
A lot of those third downs that he normally would
be converting with his feet or by rolling out, they
weren't converting. Similar situation here on the pass rush likely
to come up the middle, which is an entirely different
thing for him, demand even scarier sometimes. So I don't
mind being on the Eagles. I'm not Russian about the

(15:05):
three and a half. What I said was, I'm hoping
it gets to three. So when I'm sitting in the
link and I'm able to legally bet in the state
of Pennsylvania, I'm hammering the Eagles at minus three. But
I'm going to be disciplined. If it's not there, it's
not there. Home team is, by the way, seven to
three on Thursday Night this year against the spread, but

(15:25):
twenty eight and forty three since twenty twenty. From twenty
twenty to twenty three, all right, Baltimore to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
plus three discuss this Sunday night. There's no reason not
to back the Steelers in the spot. It got up
to three and a half yesterday immediately came down. Wise
guys are moving this. The wise guy money is on

(15:47):
the Steelers considerably more tickets on the Ravens. That's the split.
So that tells you it's a pros Joe's game. Has
anything changed for you Sunday?

Speaker 3 (16:01):
No, this is a Joe public bet, and we talked
about it Sunday night. So there are still three and
a halfs out there at the public like kind of
the Joe Public books, So you're able to bet there.
I would definitely go grab that because I I'm with you.
I just this has to be three by kickoff. I
just think they moved to three and a half because
they need the money. That's the only thing makes sense
to me. This This line feels like a three line
should be a three line. We understand the Ravens offense

(16:24):
is one of the best offenses we've seen, especially this season.
I mean, they're just a juggernaut. The things Lamar can do.
Like I really did think they were dead in that
since the game. It was just all going wrong, and
you just give him a little bit of life if
you can get in a little bit of a rhythm, Lamar,
he turns it on.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
It's it's unstoppable. It's like it's crazy how good he's playing.

Speaker 3 (16:43):
And you know, I don't know if he's still favor
for MVP, but it like it's hard to deny it.
It's like there's no one else like him in the league,
his style of play. So I see why the public's
coming in on them, like they're just it's an easier
bet to make, it's more comfortable. I still think they
fully trust this Pittsburgh team despite beating their darling in Washington.

(17:04):
And I mean you talk about like this is just
us playing a number at three and a half, especially
in contests at Pittsburgh at home, a divisional game against
this Ravens team, but they've always done well against This
is the only team that Lamar really struggles against in
the division especially, So uh yeah, I like Pittsburgh, Like
the number Tomlin is a dog. It's just good to us.

(17:24):
It's same thing as last week, like it's not easy
bet against these great quarterbacks, which mean you said last week.
It's not easy betting against Jane Daniels. Same thing here
with Lamar. It's it's just trusted the number, taking the
three and a half and trusting this defense in this
matchup that they've done so well because they've seen Lamar
so much. They know exactly how to plan because they've
just seen it so much. Just the only fear to
me is the Derrek Henry effect. I don't know how

(17:45):
that's gonna affect this matchup because he is such a
game changer. So that's gonna be the one big thing
I'll be watching this game is how they perform against
Derek Henry early on, because we've seen it even since
he was able to shut him down. If you can
get him not if you can just shut him down
for a little bit, they'll go away from it.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
Oh eventually, just let it be.

Speaker 3 (18:01):
A pass happy offun swhich Lamar has been dominant this season.

Speaker 2 (18:04):
But you know, you take what you can get.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
I'd rather have Lamar pass than Derek Henry running for
one hundred and fifty yards.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
Lamar Jackson is so far and away the favorite to
win MVP right now. I'm not kidding. I'm looking at
the Action Network site as we speak, he is minus
one ten to be MVP. When is the last time
we saw an odds on favorite for MVP after ten

(18:34):
weeks as a minus favorite.

Speaker 2 (18:38):
And someone's not leading their division? Yeah? God, that's yeah,
that is pretty crazy. Is that guy?

Speaker 1 (18:44):
That feels like a story. Someone's got to do a
story about that. Matt Mitchell, get on that rally the troops.
Someone's got to do a story about Lamar Jackson being
a minus one ten favorite at this point for MVP
in the season. Evan, when's the last time that happened?
Somebody give me some answers.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, that is crazy.

Speaker 1 (19:04):
So look, everything you said is true. Whenever we're better,
and we've done this a couple times with the Steelers,
and we've we've held our nose and done it this year,
including this week against the Commanders. Like Tomlin is fifty
eight against this fifty eight percent against the spread against
teams over five hundred. He's the most profitable coach in

(19:25):
a generation as a dog at home nineteen six and
three seventy six percent as a dog overall sixty six percent.
John Harbaugh is a favorite forty two percent in this game.
Between Tomlin and Harbaugh, Ravens and Steelers. The underdog has

(19:48):
won has covered seventy nine percent of the time, including eighteen,
two and three when the number is three or more.
Lamar as a favorite of more than three thirty four
percent against the spread.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
So that's that's a no brainer automatic in our contest
of three and a half. I mean, we knew got
going in those trends only back up exactly how we
play this when we think about it.

Speaker 2 (20:15):
So that's great to hear.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
Yeah, you know, the hard thing with this is always
is it just too obvious? Are we missing it? Are
we trying to catch a falling knife? With the Steelers?
Can you remember that they do this all the time
with Doug Hodges? Right right?

Speaker 3 (20:31):
That's that's my point to you want it's like, did
we bet this number with Mason Rudolph? We have to
bet this with Russell Wilson at least he's like not
a functioning quarterback.

Speaker 1 (20:40):
I don't know why it makes this one sort of
all right?

Speaker 2 (20:42):
Simon says it. We gotta make it, sim say, Simon says,
Simon says three and a half, go grab it. When
Simon says, we do what Sion?

Speaker 1 (20:52):
Were you not planning on doing that.

Speaker 3 (20:54):
No, there's another game, but that just I sent a
little bit of doubt in the forcing you a young one.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
I need to bring you back around. This is this
is the game we always bet.

Speaker 1 (21:02):
I've already bet it. You can look. You can look
in the app. I grabbed it a three and a half.
I've made two bets so far. Both of them are
based on conversations we had on Sunday, but I don't know.
Just like in for the same reasons you sort of
waivered on the Cults bills on Sunday because of Josh Allen,
a waiver on the waiver because of Lamar Minnesota at

(21:26):
Tennessee Tennessee plus six come down to skosh teeny tiny
half point. Yeah, this is a tricky game, dude.

Speaker 2 (21:34):
Like you know what you have to do in this game.

Speaker 1 (21:36):
I know, But let me run through it a little bit.
Let me break it down for people and let me
see if it sort of illuminates. We can play a
little guessing game for listeners and see if they end
up on the same side. I mean, look, Sam Donold
has become quite pumpkinish since week five, right, He's now
tied for the lead league in interceptions with Gino Smith

(21:58):
and Jordan Love with ten started the season with eleven
touchdowns in the first month, only six since then, could
not score against Indianapolis, could not score against Jacksonville multiple
interceptions in that game, bad interceptions. Neither of those defenses

(22:18):
are as good as Tennessee's. And believe me, I do
feel like I am the king of I'm sick of
hearing fascile broadcasters say, well, Dannessee defense is really good.
They're leading the league in yards per game, Like that
is a stupid, superficial stat. There's so much stuff that

(22:40):
goes into why a team might lead the league in
few as yards per game, and it's not always because
they've just got a really good defense. But Tennessee did
play the Chargers. Even in the box score, they were
undone by seven sacks, a couple that sort of turned

(23:01):
potential touchdown drives into field goals. So I got other stuff.
But before I get there, talk to me.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
Yeah, just I feel like I mean, we didn't even
talk about that. Minnesot GAMESA the night, but it was historical.
No team had whatever it was. He had three or
four turnovers, they didn't score a touchdown and they still
won the game. I don't think that had ever happened
before an NFL history or something crazy like that. But
that says more about the Jaguars than anything else, right,
especially to you. I don't know if you watch any

(23:34):
of that game, because who would, But we bet the
under because our guy shot doctor Nick gave it out
and they scored that opening touchdown. Mac Jones is barking
at the defense like legit talking shit. This guy Mac
Jones proceeded to get I think seventy five yards. The
rest of the game just a total clown show. But yeah,
this Minnesota team, It's like I said, coming the year,

(23:56):
I underrated their defense.

Speaker 2 (23:57):
That was definitely a blind spot and missed by me.

Speaker 3 (23:59):
But I think everything I mean you talk about coming
to year about Sam Donald has rung true. And it's
like Kevin O'Connell is that good of a guy. He
could scheme it up early on. But once the defense
has figured out what this, what they were doing, and
what Sam Donald can do, they've taken it away. And
you've seen him just struggle now, especially trying to throw
in the middle of the field, which feels like we're
all of his interceptions app you just can't see the

(24:21):
guy coming out of his blind spot that just keeps
picking off a guy he thinks is open.

Speaker 2 (24:25):
And if this.

Speaker 3 (24:27):
Isn't the spot for Tennessee, I don't know when it is.
This has to be the bottom. You can't get any lower,
and it sucks. We had a six and a half.
It's now gone. Most books are at six, which is
unfortunate because I really wanted at six and a half,
and at contest i'd felt comfortable putting six and a
half fits five.

Speaker 2 (24:43):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (24:44):
I'm not gonna let us take a bad number on
this Tennessee team because they're that bad. Like, it's just
I want the best of the number, especially on betting
this bad of a team on freaking well Levis against
this really good Vikings defense.

Speaker 2 (24:54):
So this has to be it.

Speaker 3 (24:56):
This has to be the spot we buy the Tennessee
team because it's just it feels as low as you
can get, Like I have this number four and a half.

Speaker 2 (25:03):
We're getting a ton of value here.

Speaker 3 (25:05):
Listen at seat team, But I deep down don't want
to bet them because of Will Levis.

Speaker 2 (25:09):
That's the honest truth.

Speaker 3 (25:10):
Chet, Like, there's other games I like better on the board,
but I'm with you that this is definitely a number
on a spot we have to take this Tennessee team.

Speaker 1 (25:17):
So that was my entire logic in the outline. We
look at this Viking's defense and they've basically been pretty
pretty predictable the past month that they've gotten lit up
by qbs who are can handle pressure, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff.
They've dominated Joe Flacco and Mac Jones. Right, And so

(25:40):
to me, the X factor here is Will Levis yea.
And in actually my notes I called it the ick factor.
I don't want to bet on Will Levis. I know
it's the right side. I know the number right now
still dictates a little bit of value, but I cannot
let this be one of our very precious five contest plays.

(26:03):
I think we agree.

Speaker 2 (26:04):
Do you agree.

Speaker 1 (26:07):
This one is really interesting? Cleveland and New Orleans. New
Orleans is now a one point underdog, one of the
biggest movers from Sunday night, I flagged this at Cleveland
plus three. To me, forget about any metrics. It was
purely and obviously all public perception. Right bookmakers posting a
number taking advantage of the euphoria around the Saints whin

(26:32):
you know, I don't think any lingering thoughts of Jamis
from the week before played into it, but certainly it's possible.
At three, I really liked Cleveland. I think I still
like them at one, but a lot less.

Speaker 3 (26:57):
Yeah, I would say I'd be okay with them at
three or two, two and a half.

Speaker 2 (27:00):
But there's no way I bet this now.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
I honestly lean towards the Saints team just because this
Cleveland team they're just bad.

Speaker 2 (27:09):
They're a bad team in James Flinston's.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
Bad and like, overall, I know they're coming off of
BI week here and this is I guess there's a
spot for them to take and fade of the Saints.
But this is another game I'm happy to sit out.
It's like, yeah, I don't want to bet anything on
the Saints again. I really don't want to bet Cleveland
at a bad number.

Speaker 1 (27:24):
Now. I felt like, dude, the Saints, we had our taste. Yeah,
it was a delicious meal.

Speaker 2 (27:30):
It's like they had its moments.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
You know, it's like trying the poison fish. It could
be the greatest meal you ever have in your life.
I don't know that I have the stomach to try
it again.

Speaker 2 (27:46):
I do not at all.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Browns defense still one of the tops, and pressure rates
top three, top seven for overall.

Speaker 2 (27:54):
Yeah, in the unders, you can have fun there.

Speaker 1 (27:57):
Yeah that's true. But like, but also as much as
we hate there, Like, he is actually better against pressure
than almost anyone football top three in big time, throws
you near the lowest percentage of turnover worthy plays. So like,
you know, he is a quarterback who has seen it.

Speaker 3 (28:11):
But yeah, he's one of the best quarterbacks throwing a
deep ball when he knows he's about to get punched
in the face of someone's helmet. Like, he is so
good at it, he needs it. It's the only time
if you know one's coming at him, he will sell
that ball twenty yards too deep. If he's about to
get hit, it's gonna be right on step for that
wide receiver.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
Yeah, he's truly a psychopath.

Speaker 1 (28:29):
Say this about the Car brothers and whatever was happening
in the Car family, those are the two losing his
quarterbacks and the history of the NFL, no joke. If
you look at like career records at fifty games, sixty games,
seventy games, like, there is no two quarterbacks who have
lost more games than these two guys at various thresholds,

(28:52):
but they can take a fucking beating. These two guys,
like it is insane, how willing they are to just
stand there and get punched in the freaking face.

Speaker 3 (29:04):
I don't know that another life they would just would
have been bull riders, but instead they were quarterbacks the NFL.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
That's the type of true, so true, just a couple
of rodeo guys. I covered the rodeo once. Kingfisher, Oklahoma
covered the the only female bull rider on the male
rodeo circuit. One of her events, she got knocked off

(29:29):
the bull, ended up in the hospital, had to get stitches.
Her thirteen year old daughter was with her. It was rough.
I got got out of Kingfisher right away. Jacksonville at Detroit,
oh my god.

Speaker 4 (29:47):
You guys just kept banging away right. We did whatever
we had to do. And I'll just say this again,
this is what great teams do. This is what great
teams do. Even when you're having an off day, you
find a way.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
Man. Detroit is a thirteen point favorite, nearly two touchdowns.
Oh goad, Okay, here's my question. Are the Lions the
Patriots exception? Do you know what I mean? Yeah, it
doesn't matter what the line is. How many tickets are
backing them ninety six percent at this point, if they're

(30:19):
at home, I feel like we play them. Do you
put them in the contest? I don't know. Do I
like them more? Coming off of a terrible game?

Speaker 3 (30:26):
I mean, it wouldn't be a worse decision of our
life at thirteen, I mean twelve and a half if
we got a twelve and a half in contest.

Speaker 1 (30:32):
Honest to god, simon the number of bad decisions we
have made this year, Like, I would not feel bad
at all taking the lions if we can get a
good number in the contest, Like coin flip.

Speaker 2 (30:49):
I'm just taking number now. I have it at fourteen.
I have it right on fourteen.

Speaker 1 (30:52):
Well it's at thirteen right now, right.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
So it's like, but we always we always just want them.
We we're greedy. We want the best number, specially may
have a favorite.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
So just an amazing stat by Evan this is Detroit's
biggest favorite since nineteen ninety five.

Speaker 2 (31:08):
It's pretty pretty incredible.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Trevor Lawrence might be out for the year, so might
get more of Mac Jones. Yeah, you know you mentioned
how bad the Jaguars were, so you know, I love
Bill Barnwell at ESPN his Monday column as a staple
for me. He had these notes about the Jags before Sunday,

(31:30):
no team had lost a game in which it allowed
zero touchdowns, offensive touchdowns and forced three picks since the
year two thousand. Teams had gone ninety three oh in
that range across the final forty five minutes the Jaguars produced.
You just mentioned how many yards the Jaguars produced, sixty

(31:53):
two net yards on offense, the seventh few is produced
by any team in the final three quarters the past decade.
But here's a good comp We all remember COVID. We
all remember when the Broncos had to have a game
where wide receiver Kendall Hinton had to start hinting and
the Broncos had twenty four more yards of offense in

(32:14):
the final three quarters of their loss to the Saints
than Jones and the Jags did in Week ten. Keep
fucking talking Mac Jones. While you're doing it, We're going
to fade the Jags as two touchdown underdogs on the
road against a Lions team that had a miraculous comeback
but showed their medal and are in the driver's seat

(32:35):
to finish first in the NFC. Love It, Take It,
Book It, Green Bay at Chicago, Chicago plus six. So
it was six and a half on Sunday.

Speaker 3 (32:48):
Yeah, like the most public side of the week other
than that that Detroit game.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, you know what that means.

Speaker 2 (32:58):
Speak for yourself.

Speaker 1 (33:02):
Well, look, you almost convinced me on Sunday night, and
I try to sort of remove myself from where I
was mentally on the Bears and just look at this
sort of rationally right. So it's down to six home
division dogs of six or more the past ten year,

(33:24):
barely over fifty percent against the spread. That also includes,
by the way, that this past week and the Cowboys
losing home division dogs this season eight fifteen and one,
twenty four, thirty seven and three forty percent past two years.
That includes the Cowboys and the Colts losing this weekend.

Speaker 2 (33:43):
Do you guys get anyone back on the offensive line.

Speaker 1 (33:46):
I haven't seen the updates yet. Obviously that's a massive,
massive Issue's.

Speaker 2 (33:50):
That's the biggest issue. Yeah, jar hasn't done a touchdown
on what three weeks.

Speaker 1 (33:55):
Look, if Thomas Brown can pull out that magic made
Bryce Young so comfortable last year and put them in
so many positions to succeed. And the Bears get a
little bit of help on offense, protecting Caleb Williams and
Keenan Allen can get any separation, and Dj Moore can

(34:18):
actually run a route, Roma Doonsay can catch a ball.

Speaker 3 (34:26):
You had a good game yesterday. But I don't know
to do this because I want to take the Bears.
But it's it's you know, this is the Classic. This
is as low as it gets for this team.

Speaker 2 (34:38):
Yeah, but it might get lower if they lose this game.

Speaker 3 (34:40):
It's only going to keep getting lower. That's the thing here.
It's like, are we at the bottom yet? I don't know,
because this is just a brutal spot for this Bears team.
They're playing a team in the Packers, that really needed
a week off to get healthy.

Speaker 2 (34:54):
They got it.

Speaker 3 (34:54):
Now they're coming in here against a team that is
just We talked about that that game was either gonna
break them or make them that Washington game, and right now, Chad,
through two weeks, it's broken them. I mean, they just
got rolled by Arizona and then just no showed at
home to New England.

Speaker 2 (35:10):
So I just I can't have faith in killablellions. That's
my issue.

Speaker 3 (35:14):
If you guys had a veteran leader at quarterback and
maybe I'd be around, Like flip it. We already we
talked coming this year. This kid hadn't been dealt with adversary.
His adversary was at USC losing to whatever it was
Washington State in the Pac twelve and like that that
was tough. It's like, I don't know, it's just tough

(35:34):
for me to want to back them here. So if
we don't take it, I'm cool with that too, because
I know you.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
Don't want to. You don't want to go against your
team here.

Speaker 3 (35:40):
But I'm most likely going to end up on the
Packers here, even if it's a bad number like six
six and a half.

Speaker 1 (35:45):
Well, that's kind of where I was starting to lean.
I think you you might have misspoke for a second
ago because you said you want to take the Bears.

Speaker 2 (35:52):
And I do, but I can't do it.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yeah, I like, I kind of can't get there. I'm
leaning Packers. I know the situation the Bears defense is
actually fine. I mean, Ibra Flues should just be a
defensive coordinator. You know, there's still top five and e
pa their pass rush is great. Jordan Love is having
a very inconsistent mediocre year, not very I.

Speaker 2 (36:16):
Do want to say he's been hurt. I know he's
been injured, like obviously super upset. He's been hurt bad. Yeah,
I mean that's excusable, right.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
And so he's going against a defense that can do damage.
Like the one strength the Bears have is rushing the
passer and in coverage, and so I do think that's
an edge. But if these and also the Packers have
no pass rush and they've traded away like Preston Smith
who might have been the only guy.

Speaker 2 (36:49):
How many sacks in New England have Chad nine sacks?

Speaker 1 (36:52):
That's my point.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
New England didn't have a pass rush. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (36:56):
The problem is I just don't know. I don't know
anything about this offensive line yet. Yeah, years of ed
what eleven players play thirty snaps on the offensive line.
So it's like, I think we need more intel. I'm
going to put a flag in it. I'm going to
bring it back on Thursday and like what we've learned
about the offensive line on Thursday, I'll make a note.

(37:19):
I just put it in my in my Favorites notebook. Listen, Simon,
I mentioned the top of the show that we're coming
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They made us so comfortable that I believe we won
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(37:42):
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(38:04):
love Simon and I. If you love this show, you
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save twenty five percent Tommy John dot com slash favorites
Las Vegas visiting Miami seven and a half. Wise, guys,
love the Raiders right now? Oh yeah, love the Raiders

(38:26):
at seven and a half. Kent, Kent, Kent, deny it
like you're getting the hook right now. Fifty eight percent
of the tickets on the Dolphins fifty eight percent of
the money on the Raiders. Like, I watched that game
until the Dolphins converted a third and twenty five and
went to bed. The Rams kind of dominated that game.

(38:47):
To me, this is only about the number. There's no
reason to look at this and think, yeah, the Raiders
have a chance. It's just about the hook.

Speaker 3 (38:55):
Yeah, it's just football, right, Like we bet this stupid
number plenty of times on the team we didn't really leaving.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
But it's the same with Miami.

Speaker 3 (39:02):
You just said we don't really believe in Miami either, Like,
we have a lot of questions about this Miami team
that still have not really been answered. They're just they're
just not the team they were last year. That's the
hardest part for me is I keep thinking they are
the team from last year and they're really not. And
like I wanted to take them in this spot, right
because they're at home, especially the Raiders, having the Raiders
in their black jerseys in that sun at home, this

(39:23):
would be an automatic smash spot.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
They're going to be dead by the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3 (39:27):
I'm with you, happy to throw a little on the Raiders,
and if the Raiders are winning heading into the second half,
I will put a decent amount of money on the
Dolphins going to the second half, and that would probably
be the play for me.

Speaker 2 (39:38):
But I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (39:39):
It's a game that, like I feel, even though it's gross,
I'd rather take Tennessee than take this Raiders team. It's
just me and you both thought that the Raiders felt
like they quit a couple of weeks ago, and that's
the fear with betting this team right now.

Speaker 2 (39:51):
They might have simply just quit.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
Uh Luke Getzi was the former offensive coordinator for the
Chicago Bears. Other coordinator other than the Bear's coordinator fired
mid season. Los Angeles Rams at the New England Patriots,
New England Patriots four and a half kind of one
of the bigger moves on the board, very big move

(40:16):
since the Monday night game. Was it five and a half?
Moved to four and a half. Betting tickets on the
Rams the money coming in on New England. I'll be honest,
that feels overreaching to me.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Yeah, were supposed to take the Rams here?

Speaker 3 (40:33):
That Yeah, it's just a pure overreaction to this previous
week where the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
Did they look that great? Did you watch a lot
of Chicago Gamer?

Speaker 1 (40:41):
No, of course, I did well.

Speaker 3 (40:43):
I didn't watch much. I don't really know how this
Patriots team did. But it felt like it was more
about Chicago beating themselves than it was the Patriots beating them.

Speaker 1 (40:51):
And no, it was it was two things. It was
a yeah, I mean the offensive line. Look, you get
sacked nine times, right, you know you're going to lose
the game. Caleb couldn't throw the ball, held on to
the ball too long, or they were all over him
the second it happened. But the Bears couldn't stop anybody
running the ball. They were truly terrible stopping to run.

(41:14):
So it was an impressive effort by the Patriots. But
this is a massive overreaction to me, I don't get
the move.

Speaker 2 (41:25):
Actually yeah, but I understand that point.

Speaker 3 (41:29):
If you're a professional, you just don't trust or like
this Rams team, which I know a lot of professionals.

Speaker 2 (41:34):
We talked to gun the last week. There were some pros.

Speaker 3 (41:36):
Big money came in on Miami, the same guys that
came in the week before in the Seahawks, And it
makes sense they're doing it right here, like they just
they think something's off with the Rams, and it's hard
to argue against it. Where you got Stafford Now six
straight games with an interception, that's a big deal, Like
that's nothing, just a poop pooh. It's like, well, you'd
have his weapons back for half of those, okay, but

(41:56):
he's had his weapons back and it just has not
looked the same.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
I mean, I.

Speaker 3 (42:01):
Doubt you're doing it. But I watched all twenty two
because I was like, okay, what am I missing? What
is staff or not reading? And there were guys shrieking downfield,
but he was just scared of getting hit last night,
so he was just kept taking the underneath like he
didn't look deeper. He did have guys downfield, and you know,
coming to that game, he had him been sacked in
two weeks. They brought in their starters and that reshuffled

(42:21):
for some reason, affected them negatively that offensive line last night.
So U in this matchup against his Patriots team, I
don't think that d line's that good. I know they
had nine sacks last week, but we just talked about
I think it was really about the Bears team. So
if we're gonna bet them in a bounce back spot,
this feels like the spot of this Rams team. But
it's when you just kind of nailed it. I'm not

(42:42):
gonna rush to bet. If the professionals are gonna bet
it down, I can possibly get a four.

Speaker 2 (42:46):
I'll wait.

Speaker 3 (42:47):
I'll throw a little right now in the four and
a half. But this this feels like it's gonna bean
that that middle zone. We'll I'll go back up to
five five and a half by kickoff. It just this
will be one of the more teas teams this week,
in this Rams team, because they're now four and five.
They know this is a muss when I can't really
see them overlooking this Patriots team and just you know,
go in there and struggle.

Speaker 1 (43:06):
It was a frustrating game to watch the Rams last
night because you kept feeling like they're moving, they're moving,
they're unlocking, they're unlocking, and then they would just get
stuck like the Gears would.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
N Everything wrong, everything nail. Everything was going wrong. The penalties,
the fumbles, it was.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
Just bad snaps, like.

Speaker 3 (43:27):
Yeah, you kicked five, they kicked five field goals, it
was or they kicked six and they missed one.

Speaker 2 (43:33):
It was crazy.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
They missed one, they kicked six, made it and then
got pushed back five yards because of the penalty, and
then missed it. Yeah, brutal road favorites of three points
or more off of a loss as a favorite at
home fifty eight percent against the spread since two thousand
and three.

Speaker 2 (43:51):
That makes sense.

Speaker 1 (43:53):
So another reason why, Like immediately this move felt felt wrong,
Evan backed it up with a little bit of research,
so I feel better about it. But I'm with you.
I'm putting it on the board as an option. I'm
not rushing to the window.

Speaker 3 (44:08):
It feels like the right reaction from the public though,
Like you just said that, watching that Rams team last
night was disgusting.

Speaker 2 (44:13):
That was brutal. It was like literally painful to watch.

Speaker 1 (44:15):
It was discussing, and they still should have.

Speaker 2 (44:17):
Won, right, So I get where they're coming from.

Speaker 1 (44:21):
That.

Speaker 3 (44:21):
I can see why the early money would come in
on the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (44:23):
It makes sense.

Speaker 1 (44:25):
I don't think so. I think it's the wrong move.
Indianapolis at the New York Jets, New York Jets are four.
Oh god, uh dude, you got to explain something to me.

Speaker 2 (44:37):
Talk to me.

Speaker 1 (44:39):
This line has moved from three to three and a
half to four. At that three six five. The majority
of the tickets are on the Jets, so this is
clearly a public move the money is basically evenly split.
We talked about this game on Sunday night and we
both kind of liked the Colts.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
Yeah, like the Colts. I'm shocked that the money moved
it up the fence.

Speaker 1 (45:04):
This doesn't make any sense to me.

Speaker 2 (45:06):
It doesn't. But maybe we're just a sucker for this
Colts team. But it's like.

Speaker 3 (45:11):
Every week, it just feels like they've been unlucky these
last couple of weeks. And that's the issue where it's
like we can see how they're a good team and
they're a good offense, and.

Speaker 2 (45:20):
That their defense isn't as terrible as Super Seed. I
mean even last week.

Speaker 3 (45:23):
I know that the Bills blew them out, but I
feel like Josh Allen didn't throw for a touchdown, he
had what two interceptions, Like he didn't play great against them,
Like there are ways to attack teams with this Colts defense.

Speaker 2 (45:33):
But yeah, it's so tough one buddy.

Speaker 3 (45:37):
But I'm trying not to react to it because the
same thing happened to the Jets last week and I
didn't react to it. Where it's like I know that
there is smart guys coming on this Jets team. Can't
fault them for this team has a ton of talent.

Speaker 2 (45:47):
But you nailed it.

Speaker 3 (45:48):
You said it with Colherd, like they don't have a coach.
That's a big issue right now in the NFL if
you don't have a head coach. I don't think that
the Jets have a head coach. So I'll be patient.
Maybe if there are some on the four here, but
that would be amazing. He got the four and a
half on this Colt's number, Like, that's that's where I
feel comfortable Ben Joe Flakcker right now, because he's been
so bad these last couple of weeks.

Speaker 1 (46:09):
Hey, mister Roger Ebert of NFL Film Watching, did you
watch the Aug twenty two on the Colts Bills. No,
you did not, because it sounded like, for a second
you were about to say what I said on Sunday night,
which is the Colts weren't awful in that game. They

(46:32):
had four bad plays.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
What I said, their defense wasn't the Joe Flacco was
he had three turnovers.

Speaker 1 (46:39):
Yeah, four bad plays, really four bad And by the way,
in sixteen minutes of play, four bad plays, that's really
not that bad if you really, if you boil it down,
if you look at the totext of the number of plays,
I feel like we're a little bit for Love and

(47:00):
the Colts here. The Jets rush defense is terrible bottom
third and just about every advanced metric from EPA per
rush to rush yards allowed over expectations to misstackles. And
if you watch that game against the Cardinals, they tackled nobody.
It was embarrassing.

Speaker 3 (47:19):
Sauce has gone from an all pro to a guy
I don't even know if I'd won as my second
or third corner.

Speaker 2 (47:25):
It's bizarre. His fall off in a year.

Speaker 1 (47:27):
It's stunning. Right. And look, the Colts rushing offense, we
love them. I think that's I think this is sort
of our look at the end of the day, we're
probably a little old school, right, and this might be
our Achilles heel. The Colts offensive line as a rush
blocking unit is great. The Colts is a rushing offense
are great. Last week they had more than one hundred

(47:48):
and twenty yards on the ground. They averaged more than
five yards per carry. Like the things that we expected
to happen in that game happened in the way we
thought they would happen. I think that's why where we
have got a little bit of confirmation bias here because
they did the things we thought they would do, and
the Jets also just burned us. I think that that

(48:09):
those are our issues that we got to be aware
of right now. It'll look deep inside, you know what
I'm saying. Yeah, Okay, Atlanta at Denver it feels trappy
to me, feels like a huge.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
Side because I really want to go to Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (48:26):
Okay, you know what, so do I.

Speaker 2 (48:32):
Yeah, I just think the numbers move too much.

Speaker 1 (48:34):
Yeah, this numbers move from one and a half to two.
And by the way, I think it's because of wise
guy money.

Speaker 2 (48:39):
Oh, it's definitely.

Speaker 3 (48:40):
I mean, I don't I think there's no chance that
bon Nicks could win rook of the Year just because
of how good Jane Daniels played this year and the
way the schedules laid out. But if bone Knicks gets
this team to nine wins, I think that would be
more impressive than what Jane Daniels has done, just because

(49:00):
all the shit on them, right. I mean, most guys
I know professionally that great out quarterbacks had a second
round grade on bow Knicks and they put pooh Sean
Payton and it's not just bon Knicks. Obviously, the defense
we've talked about their defense Denver has been much better
than a lot of us thought they would be. But
the bow next thing is just impressive. Like that drive
he had against Kansas City. I know he did nothing

(49:20):
in that second half, but he did have a two
minute drive that put them in the position to kick
a short field goal. That was just big time. So
I wanted to take them Denver coming into this. I
was like, they're a team I believe, and I could
see their defense getting stop especially against this Atlanta team.
Atlanta gets no pass rush, which is gonna be great
for bow Knicks.

Speaker 2 (49:41):
But at two and a.

Speaker 3 (49:42):
Half, it feels like the value now is on Atlanta,
so I'll take it. But this isn't huge where it's
like we have to put this one in. But I
might fall in love with this beat come Thursday and
this weekend. It's just a good number on a veteran
guy like Kirk in this This Atlanta team against a
Broncos team that just had a really emotional loss in
a divisional game, and this would be a classic letdown

(50:04):
spot for them. On the flip side, this Falcons team
is going to be really pissed off like that was
a brutal loss against the Saints, and now they're on
the road again against this team. So yeah, really interesting
game this Mone because this is another game that fields
like a gross playoff game like these both these teams
can use to be in the playoffs this year.

Speaker 2 (50:20):
And that's how I feel about this game.

Speaker 1 (50:22):
Here, huge undervalued spot for Atlanta, which even though we
love the Saints in that spot, yeah, you bet the
Saints they could have won that game on Sunday, right
they had. They had two miss field goals, including one
with six minutes left, nearly five hundred yards of total offense,
nearly two hundred yards in the ground. Bijon is playing
lights out like he has been a phenomenal all around

(50:45):
player this year. We talked about that run he had
down the sideline, where like it should have been a
five ten yard game, but because he's so freaking fast,
all of a sudden, he's run by everybody and they're
grasping at his shoulder pads and they can't get him
and he scores a touchdown. The Broncos defense, we had
some concerns heading into the Chiefs. We thought did the

(51:09):
Ravens expose something. I don't think they did. I think
the Ravens were just awesome and the Broncos had a
bad day. Proved a little bit of that against the
chief fourth and pressure rate first and blitz percentage. Kirk
is a weird guy against pressure, like it tends to
not bother him. But there are a couple of outliers
and stats where he's not great, especially when it comes

(51:31):
to turnover worthy plays, and he himself is inviting pressure.
So there's a cool stat like QB pressure rate is
really based on how much blame do the quarterbacks shoulder
when they are pressured. He's fourth highest. I mean he's

(51:51):
just holding the ball for a long time. Also, he
can't move, so that's like what's giving me pause a
little bit. Is the pressure component of this. So yeah,
not a rush, But I'm with you. I'm glad we're
on the same side here. We both like Atlanta Seattle
at San Francisco minus six and a half. Like you

(52:11):
suspected this was going to move from seven to six
and a half, And I'm still trying to figure out
why San Francisco deserves to be this much of a favorite.
Right now, this feels entirely based on sort of public
perception and expectations to me, not anything that we've actually
seen from them on the field.

Speaker 2 (52:31):
I know. But the more I've looked at this, it's like.

Speaker 3 (52:34):
It makes sense in a lot of ways, just because
the Seahawks have been that bad and Gino Smith has
been that bad this season where we joked earlier the
year he was like leading the league in yards, but
it was like meaningless yards.

Speaker 2 (52:47):
It was in the games where they were never really
in it.

Speaker 3 (52:50):
And this team, I guess we could say of the
forty nine ers, this is this number. Now I feel
like it's not this high because the books are counting.
Last week I got cover for some reason, like them.
It's not like they're holding the field goals against them,
because I'm with you, it's like I thought someone would
come way down. It's hell, it at six and a
half at this point, so I don't really have a

(53:12):
bet on it. I wanted to be on the Seahawks,
but I'm just hesitant. It's just I just don't really
trust them. And you said it were the forty nine ers,
they might click, like they might finally start clicking and
get everything running here smoothly. And it's like they're gonna
be what they were last year, which is a really
high powered offense.

Speaker 2 (53:29):
But when's that gonna be chat I think you're right.

Speaker 3 (53:32):
It's like we don't know because it's not the same
team obviously, and they just haven't been this season. So
it's one I'm not desperate to bet on the Seahawks,
but I did want to kind of take them when
they were at seven. Now that it's going down, it's like,
I don't know, do I really have to force the
betty on the Seahawks.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
So I think the offensive line has struggled. They just
haven't been very good. They weren't that great going into
the year. Yeah, and they've they've sort of always gotten
by with it because Trent Williams is so good that
all they had to do was really run some kind
of zone scheme for Christian McCaffery or Nebo Samuel to

(54:07):
that side of the line. It's been a struggle. You
noted before the year began, like his holdout might impact
him in a way over the course of the year
that we don't really understand the Seahawks. Meanwhile, they just
released their leading tackler to Real Dotson, so That should

(54:28):
tell you a little bit about how they feel about
their roster and the direction they're headed right now. They're
still they're trying to figure things out, you know. So
it's it's a tough game, tough game to bet on. Confidently,
Canada City at Buffalo Buffalo is a two and a
half point favorite. Look, this was Chiefs plus one on

(54:48):
Sunday night. Professional betters have moved this to two and
a half. There's nobody in the public betting on the Bills.
You were adamant Sunday night that we just take the Chiefs.
To me, like the this is like gut check, playing
with fire. When does it regress? You know, all the

(55:10):
things that make us nervous betting the Chiefs. They can't
keep doing it the way they keep winning. They've won
nine games by a total of fifty six points. They
are underdogs to the Bills the fourth time in the
Super Bowl era a nine to ohero team or better

(55:32):
is listed as an underdog. Kansas City in twenty thirteen,
the Bears in eighty five, the Rams in sixty nine,
two and a half. How are we not pulling the
trigger on the Chiefs?

Speaker 3 (55:48):
Thank god, you're getting me scared because this was this
was like the forty nine Ers game all over again.
When the Chiefs are in the year you were overthinking it.
You wanted to be on the forty nine Ers. Then
finally on Sunday you came around to the chief So
I'm happy.

Speaker 2 (55:59):
Armed boy.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
Don't ever think this. We bet with the public every
now and then. This is starting to become a lesson
of ours that it doesn't matter. Everyone knows it. You
just bet it.

Speaker 2 (56:09):
And so what the professionals do?

Speaker 3 (56:12):
They bet against him in this spot because it is
the logical move and everyone's model, which correctly made the
Bills a favorite, because if you're just looking at this season,
why would you think the Chiefs are the better team
this year?

Speaker 2 (56:25):
Right?

Speaker 3 (56:26):
I Mean, we've all joked about they should have at
least three losses on their record, most likely this season.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
But you know, we talked.

Speaker 3 (56:33):
About the Mahome magic, whatever it is. He is incredibly lucky,
like there's no doubt about it. He's the best quarterback
we all know. But as far as luck goes, it's
crazy between the reps, all of it. It's just it
feels so good to be on the side of Betty Mahome.

Speaker 2 (56:48):
Especially in these kind of spots.

Speaker 3 (56:50):
So we joked I learned a life lesson forever last
year in that playoffs game against the Ravens, and nothing
changed me. This year, I was gonna bet the bills
the Bills opened as a dog books it was all right, nice, mean,
Chad will take the bills here as a dog.

Speaker 2 (57:04):
So this is where we're supposed to bet them.

Speaker 3 (57:07):
Now, it's two and a half on the Chiefs, and
people know I'm so obsessed with the two and a
half numbers, So this will be one of our five,
just like Pittsburgh. I mean, we can literally after the
show chat lock our five and if you won't, because
I already know what a couple are going to be.
But Pittsburgh three and a half, it's same as the
Chiefs at two and a half. Here, it might not
win people, but long term, this is a winner. This
is a spot we will make the rest of the

(57:28):
show exists. So until we lose three or four in
a row of Mahomes is an underdog Chad, then I'll
hop off this trend. I feel like that's gonna be
in the later stage of his career, when Andy Reid's gone,
you know, Travis Kelsey's gone all of that stuff. Me
and you will adjust then right now with Spags and
Andy Reid as an underdog, with Mahomes, that combination, we

(57:49):
bet this number here.

Speaker 1 (57:51):
It's so funny you say that in that order, because
in the outline my last two notes coaching edge to
Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo, huge coaching edge. I don't
think there's even a question even.

Speaker 2 (58:06):
Joe Brady's name. I love what the Bills offense has
done this year.

Speaker 1 (58:09):
Yeah, but they're head coach. Come on, at the end
of the day, do the on field matric metrics matter
as much as Patrick Mahomes? And that's really break.

Speaker 3 (58:25):
Like I told you, my model thinks this should be
minus one for the Bills, and it's like, you know,
not only is this a good number for them, but
it's like that's because I've adjusted it, where just I've
just made the Chiefs. I don't want to bet. I
guess the Chiefs. That's honest with the truth.

Speaker 1 (58:41):
Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or less or
as a dog twenty six eight and one as a
dog twelve one and one. So this is what I
wanted to make my exec decision do it.

Speaker 2 (58:57):
I love it, all right, because.

Speaker 1 (58:59):
Honest, I've been such fucking mush this year that I
didn't want to run.

Speaker 3 (59:04):
You can't mush Mahomes found final last words by me.

Speaker 1 (59:07):
All right, Well, Matt Mitchell, bring it back on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (59:12):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible executive decision. No,
this is all music that Mitchell's use.

Speaker 1 (59:23):
Yeah, right, exactly. Going to have so much breaking news
as we've been talking about this and literally as you mentioned,
you know, taking the Steelers. Just seconds ago, the Steelers
announced that Alex Highsmith will miss the game. I think
that's a big deal, to be honest, Like, this is

(59:43):
a much better team when he's on the field as
the bookend defensive end.

Speaker 2 (59:48):
To t J. Watt.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
Obviously, I know they got Preston Smith, so that's not
the same. Uh, it's a bit of a downgrade. We're
still going to take the Steelers, but more nervous. If
we're looking for reasons to be more nervous about it,
that's one of them. Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers
are now one and a half open to two and
a half. Didn't make sense. We flagged it on Sunday

(01:00:10):
that the Bengals should not be two and a half
point dogs moved all the way down to one. Professional
money moved the Bengals. It's now back up to one five,
one and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:00:20):
I love the Chargers, dude.

Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
It's so weird that you say that, because I know
that we we have a soft spot for the Bengals
and Joe Burrow. We don't like betting against him. No,
but like we have been avoiding this Chargers team because
their stat lines in each game are relatively even and
they don't do anything remarkable. They're they're they're beating bad teams.

(01:00:49):
Their losses are the teams that are like above average
offensive grades across all the geeky advanced metrics that make
us feel better. But the thing is they also don't
do the stupid things. Yeah, they tend to grow those
pits in our stomach, right. They don't get the bad
penalties that the Rams got this week. They don't get

(01:01:12):
the missed field goals that the Niners got this week.
They're not inconsistent like the Colts. They don't have high
variance play calls that make us crazy. They don't have turnovers.

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
They're the biggest one to me the dump.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
They don't do the dumb turnovers, which has been plaguing
them for years.

Speaker 1 (01:01:30):
It's boring, predictable football. Yeah, so this was going to
be my exec decision. So I love that you like
the charger share to you give me your logic?

Speaker 2 (01:01:46):
Yeah for a lot.

Speaker 3 (01:01:46):
Well you just said the matchup wise two I think
is really good for this team. I know the Bengals
just shut down the run kind of last week with
the Ravens team, but that's not who they are. They're
not good against the run, and I think that's going
to be really telling this game that they're gonna use
the run the set up the pass.

Speaker 2 (01:02:01):
And that's why Herbert's been so great this year, Like.

Speaker 3 (01:02:04):
That middle of the field is so open because these
linebackers have to step up because they have to respect
the run. And that's really unlocked a lot of stuff
he wants to do this year because we know that
Herbert's deadly accurate is his biggest issue has just been
the consistency. He's been inconsistent, and Harball has found a
rhythm with him that he knows when he needs an
easy one to get going, like when he needs just

(01:02:24):
a little short two yard dump off to his tight
end just to get him in a little bit of
a rhythm, and it's worked out. Like even when he's
out of sync. I've watched other games where he get
him back and sink with a couple easy calls like that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:34):
So when a coach and a quarterback.

Speaker 3 (01:02:36):
Are intain him like that, it's it's great. It's like
they both know what they need to kind of get
this thing to work. On the flip side of this
Bengals team, you know, we talked Sunday night where it's like, okay,
this number is two and a half, and my first
thought was just gonna be this is gonna be the
biggest public side of the week, Like everyone's going to
come in on this Bengals team for what you just

(01:02:56):
talked about.

Speaker 2 (01:02:57):
It's the fun, sexy.

Speaker 3 (01:02:58):
Team, the high flying offenses. Team just put up whatever
it was, thirty five, thirty four points against the Ravens
on Thursday night, Like it's it makes sense why the
public would like this team so much. But to me,
look at this matchup, that number made sense at two
and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
It's like two and a half three.

Speaker 3 (01:03:16):
That's what I would make this Chargers team because there
is no real home field advantage for them here, but
I just think they're the better team overall. So the
movement that's what makes me like it so much. It's like,
this is real good value on this Chargers team. Even
if this doesn't win, fuss, because you know, Sat Higgins
does come back chat, maybe we'll get even better of
a number. That's why it's like, you don't have to

(01:03:36):
rush to bet this number now. I'm taking it out
just because I could see professional money coming on this
Chargers team. Because what we just talked about, like matchup wise,
this is actually a really nice matchup on paper for
this Chargers team, not just offensively, but defensively as well.

Speaker 2 (01:03:50):
I mean, Joe Burrow, you know.

Speaker 3 (01:03:53):
I guess you didn't have that much pressure last week,
but we've seen him struggle against teams that can't put
pressure on especially like you talked about earlier, that Eagles team.
That's how they kind of dominate them in that second half.
Once he started getting pressure on him, there's not much
they could do, so be patient with this one. Like
if t Against comes back, maybe this flips. Maybe even
that that's what we really would love to happen. If
we get a plus one and a half on the
Chargers team because this is gonna be you know, it's

(01:04:16):
Sunday Night. This all the teasers, especially people getting seven
and a half right now, their teasers with this Bengals team.
It's all gonna be tied in this Bengals team. So, uh,
I line, I'm happy to be patient with. But it's
definitely one that you know, it's either our big balls
or Foxhole bet on Thursday.

Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
I would not be shocked.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
I would expect T Higgins to be back. All indications are.

Speaker 3 (01:04:36):
Maybe, but that contract thing is real. Like he's missed
what now, four or five games this season, that's true.
If he's not totally good, He's like, why would I
risk it? Like I got to make sure I'm good
head into the offseason because that's what I'm gonna get paid.
So that, to me has been a very interesting underlying
story here where he's been picking and choosing when the
games he's playing because he's.

Speaker 2 (01:04:55):
Like, if I'm not one hundred percent, I'm not risking it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:58):
Look, you're so smart, and from a negotiation perspective, it
becomes clearer and clearer every single week how important he
is to this team, Like they're winning when he's playing,
they're losing when he's not. He makes such a massive
difference in how defenses can defend against Jamaar Chase and

(01:05:20):
Joe Burrow, and they're gonna have to go pay for
someone else to do that, or they can keep Tea
against Really that is interesting. Now we're talking, all right, well,
we're going to hold a pin in that one. I
really enjoyed this past Sunday when all of our games
were decided by one o'clock except for one, and so

(01:05:42):
Sunday night was a bit of a reprieve from our contest.
But I don't know that that's going to happen. It
feels like we're going to end up on the Chargers.
I feel like you're not wrong Steelers Chiefs Chargers, Like
I think we already lean a little bit a Colts.
We could see Atlanta come in here. I wouldn't be

(01:06:06):
afraid of the Rams. Like this is getting interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:06:10):
Yeah, I'll say a Lions twelve and a half is
super tempting.

Speaker 1 (01:06:14):
Oh my god, the Lions twelve and a half. It
makes no sense not to do that. It just doesn't.
Houston at Dallas. It's the last game on the board.
Dallas is seven and a half point underdog at home. Look,
I want to be respectful of the audience. I wanted
to do our best to determine if there is an
edge in this game. Two entirely different collapses. The Cowboys

(01:06:38):
collapse catastrophic from a fan perspective, franchise perspective, ownership perspective,
player perspective. Dak is out. This team looked like it
gave up, and the Eagles took the foot off the
gas and basically played mercy ball in the fourth quarter,
and the Cowboys still almost won them to score touchdowns

(01:07:01):
and hit the over by themselves. Houston obviously five five
interceptions of Jared Goff and loses a squeaker of a
game winning kick to the Lions. I don't want to
even watch this game.

Speaker 2 (01:07:17):
Signed that's fair.

Speaker 3 (01:07:18):
I'm gonna end up beating on Dallas because I just
feel that Egals game with them being a little bit
unlucky they're in that game. That Zeke fumbled out of
the end zone, that that was really to me the
end of the game Like that to me was maybe
they could have kept that game a little close if
he had scored that once that happened.

Speaker 2 (01:07:32):
It was dead.

Speaker 3 (01:07:33):
But you're right with Houston, they're supposed to get Nico
Collins back for this matchup. That's the difference the Houston
team we've seen these last couple of weeks. That's they're
not that they're not the same team. They're a totally
different team. When he's on the field, it opens up
so much for their offense. So you're right, this this
summer's price right, No need to force it in. I'll
just take the seven a half because I like taking

(01:07:53):
this Cowboys team and a really as low as it
gets kind of spot like everyone's just bad mouthing them
this whole week. The players know it. This is a
standalone game. Usually this is when guys show up and
showed some pride. But why, I don't know. It's just like,
I'm glad we don't really bet this one because it's like,
you know, the whole Michael Parsons comments, talking about his
coach everything like that. It just feels so negative right

(01:08:15):
now at Dallas. I understand why people want nothing to
do with this game, Like Chad doesn't want to watch
it either.

Speaker 1 (01:08:22):
Do you feel like it is more negative in Chicago
or more negative in Dallas as a completely impartial observer.

Speaker 3 (01:08:28):
Oh my god, gotta be gotta be Dallas because Chicago.
Not that you guys are inherently negative, but like everyone
saw this coming a mile away.

Speaker 2 (01:08:38):
You guys over head build it up and then just
for your gems, a little bit of an idiot, but yeah,
it's it's tough.

Speaker 3 (01:08:47):
But like like you just talked about with you guys,
if you get you know, Ben Johnson wherever in this offseason,
it's all different. Right, Even if they bring him Belichick
to this Cowboys team next year, it doesn't fix a
lot of their issues, have a lot of stuff they need.

Speaker 2 (01:09:01):
To work on.

Speaker 3 (01:09:02):
Where it feels like the Bears at least, you know,
right now, the biggest issue is head coach offensive line.

Speaker 2 (01:09:07):
So I'm with you though.

Speaker 3 (01:09:09):
It's two major, huge fan bases in football and both
of them are just taking the rest of the season off.

Speaker 1 (01:09:15):
Most likely Jerry Jones is standing there taking freaking bullets
right now, like going like the fact, he's yelling, why
don't we just tear down the whole stadium. Everybody knows
where the sun is going to be at four o'clock,
as if to say the players should be ready, they
shouldn't be calling plays for that end of the end zone.

(01:09:36):
Like I am loving Jerry Jones postgame. It's getting meltdowns.

Speaker 3 (01:09:42):
He's literally the office meme. Shut up about the sun,
Like he just loses his mind talking about the sun
right now.

Speaker 2 (01:09:47):
It's it's really is ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (01:09:49):
It's so funny. We should just we should just tear
down the stadium. That's like the most parent thing ever.
Why don't you just get new parents? If you're mad
that we're not letting your good club this weekend, fine,
maybe you can get new parents. As a reminder, the
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(01:10:54):
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Speaker 2 (01:11:11):
Love you.

Speaker 1 (01:11:22):
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