The Favorites - NFL Week 15 Betting Preview

Decking their hall with boughs of betslips, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter gear up for a merry NFL Week 15. Before their live show event in Philadelphia later in the week, they discuss every other game on the board.  We have another ugly matchup the New Orleans Saints, a showdown in the Motor City for Josh Allen, and the first chance to bet Carolina as a favorite in an eternity. To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now! Plus, we get a recap of Week 14 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume  #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Shad Moment of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Week fifteen episode where we break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our
exec decision and our Simon says, we're going to start
to narrow down the options for our Fave five to

(00:30):
put it into the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
Football Pick Them Contest this weekend. We went two and
three this past week. We won with the Dolphins and
the Vikings, losing in predictable ways with the Chiefs who
made it another cardiac win but didn't cover, and we

(00:53):
lost in a predictable way with the Browns who tumbled
the way back to our opportunities, and the Bears, who
we regretted. Hours before kickoff, Live from our Tommy John
Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, Mike cam Padre my BFF professional Better sign
in Hunt.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Hello, So I'm in Hello Chat. How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (01:17):
Feel great? Feel motivated? Feel live, having a great day.
I'm really excited about our event this week will remind
people the details coming up. Also reminder The Favorites podcast
is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty

(01:37):
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be
twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

(02:03):
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
old are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred
gambler or win in one hundred bets off in Iowa terms.
Condition restrictions apply. At last Simon, we do not have
any buys. I feel like last week, with all the
byes and the Thursday game being a game we loved,

(02:27):
we did not have a ton of games that we
could really sink our teeth into that we could agree
on for the final five. So we get a full
slate every weekend from now through the end of the year,
which I love. More options equals more opportunities. As we say,
we like optionality. Let's get to Week fifteen. First game.

(02:51):
This is the game for our Thursday night football watch party.
Super excited to see everyone at the Wicked Wolf in Philade.
The Rams scored this past weekend on nearly every drive
against a team that had just beat up on the Niners.

(03:12):
We're two and a half point favorites against the Rams
on Thursday nights. The Rams are the Niners won impressively
against a bad team. Who gets more credit simon in
the eyes of the public, the Rams for beating the Bills,
the Niners for beating up on the Bears.

Speaker 2 (03:33):
I mean, obviously it's going to be the Rams. It
was arguably. I mean, we didn't break it down too
much because I didn't want to keep driving the hot
needle into Matt Mitchell here. But that was like one
of the best games ever. And it's someone like me
that bet the second half of the Bills. I mean,
obviously that'd be nice for the win, but I didn't care.
I just wanted to cover and Josh Allen did something

(03:54):
we talked though we'd never seen in the history of
what we do. Like, I think it was the greatest
fantasy football day in history. He's the first quarterback ever
have three rushing touchdowns three passing touchdowns. It was truly
the most insane game ever. That we get one a
year or every other year, it feels like, and that
was one that, like, you know, in the summertime, that's

(04:16):
gonna pop up on my NFL network. I'm gonna have
to sit down and watch that whole game just because
it was that kind of a game.

Speaker 1 (04:22):
Let me put it in context. Josh Allen is the
second player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns three
rushing touchdowns. He joined Hall of Famer Otto Graham, who
did it in the NFL Championship game against the Lions
in nineteen fifty four.

Speaker 2 (04:43):
Well he did against plumbers and painters. Pretty impressive what
Josh Allen did in this current stage. And yeah, we
talked about that line. They opened at three. It went
away obviously, and this line opened at I believe three
for the Rams, and it went down right, It went
down to two when we were doing our show live
on Sunday, I kind of already gave it away to

(05:04):
people that no matter what, if this was gonna be
under three, I was gonna be on the forty nine ers.
It was just it's gonna be an overreaction to the Rams,
and it's also going to be value on this forty
nine ers team. Now as he here to say that,
I'm not, I'm not as confident as I was Sunday night,
because even today I just read they still don't know
if Trent William's gonna be back. And you know, clearly

(05:25):
that didn't matter against that Bears team, right because they
were we joked about they already had three hundred yards
when the Bears had nine yards, Like that guy.

Speaker 1 (05:33):
I know, Simon. It was three hundred and nineteen yards
to four yards in the first half. The Bears had
five punts, five punts, four yards.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
So on one side, we have a defense that showed
up for the forty nine ers. On the other side the
Rams offense that showed up. But we talked about this
Rams team, they've just struggled against the run all season
and that's kind of been their achilles hill all season,
even in that game against the Bills, they did okay
against the run, but overall, obviously we just talk about
their defense. Gave up six touchdowns to just one individual

(06:05):
and Josh Allen. So there's clearly ways this fortnit single
bible attack them. We've seen it before too, where they
just for some reason McVeigh and his team they let
down this spot, especially when they're on the road against
this forty nine ers team. So yeah, you can see
right now in the action app it's all the money,
all the tickets right now right are coming on this
Rams team. Not that shocking. So if you miss the two,

(06:27):
you could be patient, maybe hope it gets their game.
But I knew the professionals are gonna be on this
forty nine ers side, and that's what we're seeing right
this soon was just touched two, went back up to
two and a half. That that feels like where it's
going to go for the kickoff right two and a
half or three, depending what the book needs here. So yeah,
I'm excited that we have a good game for a
watch party because we were joking two weeks ago it's
like if these got these teams are banged up, this

(06:47):
might be an absolutely dud Now cut them into it.
Coming into this game, It's like, Wow, this is a
really good game that one of these teams, if they
lose it, their their playoff treams are pretty much done.
So yeah, lineup for a good one.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
Yeah. I lean Niners, Ileana Night Home teams. I leen
Kyle Shanahan against Sean McVay. He's had his number multiple
times over the past few years, so I still like.
I'm with you. I like the Niners if it's under three.
The Trent Williams thing is the one thing I was
trying to get intell on yesterday. I could not get

(07:19):
anything confirmed or affirmative that he would be playing, So
that is the one thing that that is a little
bit scary. Totally agree with you on that. Here's what's
interesting to me, Well, actually I want to get to
that when we get to the Eagles game. Quick reminder,
don't forget last reminder. Our free Favorite Podcast event is

(07:43):
this Thursday our SVP. It's an exclusive live episode performance
along with free drinks and good times, will be taking
place at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. Me
and Simon. Evan Abrams is going to be there. Matt
Mitchell is going to be there. The event starts at six,

(08:05):
we'll record at seven. Everything leads into Thursday night football
between these rams at Niners to RSVP. Check out the
link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. Simon and
I will tweet it out as well. If you are attending,
check your ring boxes foreign email we'll send out with
more details. You will get VIP status if you're an

(08:28):
active bet three six ' five user. Be sure to
have an account. Make your deposit if you haven't yet.
Free favorites, swag prizes from our buddies at Tommy John,
possibly a warm embrace from me. Space is limited. We'll
see you in Philly. Listen. It's an exclusive episode, Simon.

(08:51):
The other day, I'm on the phone with my dad
and he was asking about the event. You know, he's
in Chicago, and he's like, so, well, I listened to
the show after. I'm like, no, it's just for the
people who are there. He goes, so I can't listen
to it. I'm like, Dad, I'm telling you, unless you're
coming to Philly, you are not going to hear this.
And he didn't bite. So my dad will not be there.

(09:14):
I might not even be able to get my older
son there. He's in the middle of finals Atdrexel. He's like,
I'll see if I can get there. That's how much
my family cares about what's going on.

Speaker 2 (09:23):
Man, Chad's gonna be giving away a hugs people, I've
probably giving away some cash. That's the difference. We are.
No hugs for me, just cash.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
Which would you rather have? What is better than a
warm embrace? Cold cash? It doesn't last, but a nice
feeling to know that you're loved and seen and appreciated.
That Booy's confidence. That's how my parent Dallas at Carolina.

(09:48):
Carolina is minus two and a half right now, Simon, Look,
this is the team that I think. This team put
us on a downward spiral to start the year. We
nearly turned our listeners against us. They're finally finally consistently
playing like the team we expected them to be. On

(10:10):
Sunday Night, they were one point dogs to the Cowboys
right before we went on the show. That line flipped quickly.
It was one one and a half up until two
hours ago. Now they're two and a half point favorites.
You said you had this as as Carolina minus two.
For the record, this is the first time the Panthers

(10:31):
are favored in a game in almost exactly two years.
It was like mid December two years ago, twenty twenty two.
Can you name the team they were favored against and
what happened? Do you have any idea.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
In twenty twenty two?

Speaker 1 (10:48):
December eighteen, twenty twenty two, was.

Speaker 2 (10:51):
It at home against Derek Carr and the Saints.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
At home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
Wow?

Speaker 1 (10:58):
Classic raw Ron Mike Road underdog Steelers went out right,
because that's what Mike timlines. So here's my question for
real though, now, like, is the value on our favorite team,
who we've been betting every single week the past month
finally gone?

Speaker 2 (11:20):
I don't think it's gone because, like I think I
said on the show, either I had it two or three.
But like this, this number here feels right. When it opened,
we talked about that was way too low. Even when
it was one, it was still showing value on the Paranthers.
But the issue is we went from like last week
I had that number ten, so we were getting I
mean it closed up fourteen. That's four points of value.

(11:40):
That was really extreme. Where this at half a point,
it's like we'll force it in if we need to
because we, like we talked about, we love them, and
clearly they're playing as a better team right now than
the Cowboys in a lot of ways. And you know,
if this gets to three though, it's like, Okay, at
what point is this a by a low spot on

(12:00):
a Cowboys team that you know, if they didn't muff
that punt wherever that will happen. And in that game
of Cincinnati, they probably would have I mean, I don't
know about loot like winning that game, but at least
when I covered, they probably would have got a field
goal and then maybe on a last touchdown by the Bengals.
But still, it's like, you know, you're right, there's a
point where we need to sell on them, and this

(12:21):
might be it because the Lions moved so much at
this point. So I'm doing my best not to get
sucked in on it because it's like we fell a
little bit of attachment to this team right now because
you've just been so good to us and they've done
exactly what we thought they would be this season, which
is a team that can move the ball on the offense.
You know, now it's like you just said, it's getting

(12:41):
close to minus thraet a lot of books. Most books
are showing two and a half. So I'm assuming by
Thursday show this is at three and it fits three
and a half in contest. I mean, that's gonna be
very tempting for us to take the Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
I just can't believe that the rest of the sports
betting world has caught up to the Panthers. Fifteen weeks later,
they've caught up to the Panthers. Turns out we were right.
Fifteen weeks later, we're one hundred percent right.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
Yeah, it's better to be earlier than late, right, Chad.

Speaker 1 (13:12):
I guess so, except when you lose on the Panthers
for six straight weeks and you know, turned your entire
season upside down. Kansas City at Cleveland? How coincidental Cleveland
is a four and a half point home dog. How
coincidental that the two teams who burned us on Sunday
are playing each other. The line opened at six and

(13:35):
a half. We saw it on Sunday night, now down
to four and a half. We said this would happen, right,
We identified the game six and a half was too high.
Jamis is not justin Herbert. The Browns O line is
not the pass blocking unit that the Chargers is, but
I do think their pass rush is much better than

(13:57):
the Chargers. And we've now seen every every single week
how bad the Chiefs offensive line really is, especially their
edge blockers. Like it didn't matter who was in there
on Sunday night, DJ Humphrees or anybody else. Like the
Chiefs were only effective when they went to the short
passing game, right, that was the only time they could
really move the ball. And like at this point, between

(14:20):
the holding penalties, the false stars, the formation penalties, the
Chiefs O line is a huge liability and you can
see it in Patrick Mahomes's face, Like, I don't know
if you have different thoughts on this game than I
do about the Browns. But like, other than the fact
the line has moved two points, we've lost some value.
Still feels like you're taking the Browns at four and

(14:40):
a half.

Speaker 2 (14:42):
You're not wrong, but like the same spot with last week,
eventually we're all going to get caught and the value
is going to shift the other way. And that's how
I felt last with a Chargers game. It's like the
Charger were down there number one receiver and the number
one running back and basically put together two drives, got
two touchdowns back to back, and our bet was just
because that's how this this this Chief's team is right
now that you're right, like they're they're a field goal heavy,

(15:06):
Like there's a lot of times on their drive they
just things fall apart because of that pressure you talked about.
They just have such a bad offensive line right now
that yeah, come playoff time. I mean, there are people
really gonna bet against this Chiefs team. I think everyone's
got the reaction from last year. But right now as
we sit here, I agree with you chat. It's like,
who are this Chief's team to get over three points against?

(15:28):
Basically anybody with a pulse? And the Cleveland Browns, as
bad as they've looked, they've had a pulse. I mean,
they've just been unlucky. It feels like these last couple
of weeks. So maybe we just avoid this game, like
take a break from betting the Browns or the Chiefs
just because it's yeah, it's two bad weeks in a
row from this Browns team, and you know the Chiefs.

(15:50):
It's on the historical run, right, like we were betting
a lot of stuff we're betting too. Last week it
was the same thing where I understood your position on
the Giants, like eventually the book's gonna catch up to it.
They not covered in seven straight games, I think up
till last week's point. Same with this Chiefs team. It's
the longest stint of Andy Read's career, seven straight no covers.
I saw it might have been. Evan had some crazy

(16:11):
stat about there's never been a team in the Wildcard
air since in the Super Bowl era that's won the
Super Bowl that has lost seven straight against the spread.
So once again, the Chiefs are going against something historical
we've never seen before, and it's the Mahomes factor. Though
it's just like even that game they were gonna not cover.
You knew they were gonna win, right, That's how I go.

Speaker 1 (16:31):
So it's like, well, because when they get down to
four minutes and they've got the ball, yeah, they know
exactly how to play it, and they're playing college where
it's like, you know, he he was teasing a little
bit like they'd be better off if they scored a
touchdown unless they can get the clock, and I'm like,
they're not going to score a touchdown. They're going to

(16:52):
do exactly what they're supposed to do. They're going to
run the clock down, and they look Jim Harbaugh taking
all three timeouts before the two minute warning sort of
gave them that opportunity and took the cover completely off
the table. I knew we were going to lose that game.
I knew it.

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Yeah, and they doinked it through. So it's that's just
the season that's been for this Chiefs. They're just different
than anything we've seen before. And yeah, you're our initial
read on taking the six and a half obviously was right.
It's a lot of books were moving to four. So
if you do, like Leland grabbed the four and a
half because I'm gonna chat, I could see this easily
getting down to three and a half, just because the
public's totally out on this team, and I think professional betters, no,

(17:31):
they don't need a rush to take this Chiefs team
that the snummery will keep coming down.

Speaker 1 (17:35):
It does feel a little bit. I agree with you.
We've had the same feeling about the Steelers, which we'll
talk about with the Eagles. Right, how much can we
keep pressing our luck right?

Speaker 2 (17:48):
Because it always goes the other way.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
We know that it will. Like we talk about these
things they're at their best sixty two sixty three percent,
which means three point eight times out of ten you're
losing that bet. And we just haven't found the windows
where those bets are losing yet. And so it is

(18:09):
a little bit scary to like keep going to that
well again and again again, or we're doing what you
tell us we're always doing. We're just overthinking this shit,
and like it's under three, it's under three. It's it's
if it's over three, you bet against Mahomes. If it's
under three, you bet on Mahomes. Maybe maybe we're being idiots,
who knows, but that's that's the rule. Let's recap the

(18:33):
results of week fourteen are week thirteen. No, let's recap
the results of week fourteen. In the Favorites Podcast one
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Contest Our Week fourteen
first place winner d Winsenberg and unprecedented three entries went

(18:55):
five and zero and nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker.
But d Winsenberg submitted first, so that is the winner.
He or she is the winner of our maximum two
thousand dollars weekly prize. Incredible performance and as always, our
producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award to

(19:16):
the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
Have you had about the lordsome loser? He's a Louisa,
but he still kids on try.

Speaker 1 (19:31):
This week's Producer Cup goes to Sean LP Curtis, who
went ZH to five and missed the tiebreaker by three
hundred and seventy five yards. Sean, please email our producer
at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
Mammy Houston. Houston's a three and a half point favorite

(19:53):
at bet three sixty five, and we'll say the line
moved from two and a half to three on Sunday,
move back to two and a half at most books,
but it is still minus three at PET three six five.
This this was a game yesterday, Simon. I don't know
if you felt this when you were when you were
doing your film study. But as I was doing my research,

(20:16):
I kept looking for reasons to like the Texans, and like,
eventually I said to myself, do I like the Dolphins
at two and a half? And it seemed like the
wise guys do because they move the line from three
to two and a half.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, I would say the wise guys to me seem
like they like Miami at three and then so much
at two and a half. So I read your sentiment there. Yeah,
I'm not having a tough time this one too, because
I just think the Texans are just a better team.
I trust them more, honestly. At this point, Miami, we've
seen them beat up on bad teams and then kind
of struggle or be inconsistent against you know, good components.

(20:59):
And you know that that was the type of game
last week that we talked about. Like Tua, he he
is pretty special and we've seen this season now he's
had a couple of games where he's willed his team
to a couple of victories and you know, like a
game we probably have took too lightly we talked about
was that Bill's game. He had his team in that game,
a game they usually get blown out in that they

(21:20):
only lost by six. He upset this this Rams team.
It looks like a juggernaut and you know, again a
late touchdown score by him. So yeah, it's a tough one. Chat.
I'm with you. It's like at three, I'm seeing a
couple of public books right now and are still at three.
That seems like, that's right, Like this number feels right
at that number, and at that number, I would tick Miami,
but it's not what I'm really banged the table for

(21:42):
as we sit here right now.

Speaker 1 (21:44):
Yeah, I was just surprised. Sometimes I just like the validation.
I'll just be honest, Like you do the work during
the day, you form an opinion, and all of a
sudden you're like, oh god, so I actually like this team. Yeah,
And then I saw the number move After all that,
I'm like, wow, maybe I do like this team. Just

(22:07):
for clarity, Like what I saw was Miami's red zone
offense is top ten. I was surprised it was as
high because I feel like, and this is just bias, right,
We've talked about this. The Dolphins' offense is just not
very physical, and so they get down in the red zone,
you think they're going to struggle, but it turns out

(22:28):
they don't. Maybe we just felt this way because of
how they played against the Jets. Red zone defense is
top six, and so we know Miami will be able
to dink in Duncan's way down the field against a
middling Texans defense this year. So I just sort of

(22:49):
thought I think they can move the ball and at
three it's probably the right side. But agree with you,
two and a half not the flavor for me.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
Yeah, And I don't like.

Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Texans at two and at like, I don't think
I like the Texans anymore.

Speaker 2 (23:05):
Well, that's fair, but that's what's worrying me a little
bit is that maybe we've gone too far. And just
because I think you agree that there's just something off
about their offense and their offensive line right now, and
like that CJ just has not looked the same this year,
same same thing we had problem with Jordan Love, that
just they're they're kind of going through that year too slump, right,
And we've seen it this season where Jordan Love looks

(23:26):
like he's coming out the other side of it. I
still know where CJ is at. He just has not
looked in rhythm all season.

Speaker 1 (23:31):
I just want to make sure we're both agreeing that
there's no value in this game, that it's not going
to be a game that we particularly like. I don't
see it moving out of this two and a half
to three range. And so I want to make sure
that you and I are clearly communicating, because I think
we crossed wires on the Panthers and ended up not
putting them in the contest when we both kind of
thought we should because we were waiting on a certain

(23:53):
number and that might not have been the case. Fair Simon.
We can hear the crackling of the ulogs, we can
taste the eggnog. The holiday season is upon us, and
with over twenty million pairsoled in thousands of five star reviews,
we can make the Gift of Tommy John our newest

(24:16):
holiday tradition. It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift,
but it feels great to give Tommy John upgrade someone's
life with breathable comfort and deliver those special cringle tingles
all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the
gift of Tommy John this season?

Speaker 2 (24:36):
It's the gift that lasts.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
Shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites right now for
the holidays and get thirty percent off site wide. Save
thirty percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites Tommy
John dot com slash Favorites. Cincinnati is a five point
favorite on the road at Tennessee went from five to
four and a half back up to five. The Bengals

(25:01):
were lucky to escape with a win last night. There's
such an incomplete football team, Like you watched Joe Burrow.
If he can throw it to Jamar Chase, he's great,
and like they can't really run the ball, so they
don't get any play action. They can't stop the run.
The Cowboys slashed their way through. Since he's defense some

(25:24):
Monday night football. The problem is that Titans are bad
on offense in just about every category as the Bengals
are on defense. Bengals are thirtieth in red zone as
a defense, Titans offense is twenty seven. The Bengals can't
stop teams on third down. The Titans can't convert. Bengals
are thirtieth in points allowed. Titans are thirtieth in points scored,

(25:48):
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. You get my drift,
my instinct, and I don't think this is a game
we're gonna play. I lean Titans, so I think their
defense may emphasize, may be able to stop the Bengals,
and will let us may be able to sprout surprise

(26:11):
their creptastic defensive backfield.

Speaker 2 (26:15):
Yeah, I agree with everything you said. It feels like
this is a game where you throw out the numbers,
and it's simply are you here to fade the public
and bet with the sports books because Cincinnati Bengals will
be the number one t's team their money line with
every parlay. Everyone everyone knows they got a whale one
last night. Like we just talked about that. Not that
Dallas is out playing them. It feels like they were
in some in some aspects of that game. And the

(26:37):
biggest one was Joe Burrow was just getting hit after
hit after hit, every drop, but even after his completions,
he was getting rocked. And you know, the refs missing
brutal calls, like hits to the helmets, him getting face masks.
The refs were just awful last night. Let him get
beat up. We saw they put it on a sleeve
on his knee, might have been midway through the fourth quarter.

(26:58):
Like this, this man is just getting abused. And you know,
like you just said, this matchup, it's not the best
for Tennessee because of what their strength throwed defensively, but
you're right, like I just have such little faith right
now and Will Levis and this offense in Tennessee, you know,

(27:18):
they basically had a gift last week and they just
could not capitalize on all their opportunities against that Jaguars
team and they lost it because they're just a bad
team that feels like they're poorly coached. And yeah, this
is another game where it really is It's just like
your Giants bell last week. Chad, You're you're simply playing
the number, playing the laws of averages, and this number

(27:38):
should be three, three and a half, like you just said,
it's five and most books, yes there's value there are
we really going to force this one in because we
have been betting ugly dogs and like we talked about,
we've just been getting burned this year by ugly dogs
and against superior teams. Are is this really superior team?
And the Sense team, like I feel like get nailed
to just say how they got lucky. So it's a

(28:00):
tough one. Chat Like, I really want to take it,
but I'm having a lot of reservations here just because
it is Will love us and he's just burned us
so many times this year.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
I feel like the worm has turned a little bit
for us the past few weeks. In betting the ugly dogs.

Speaker 2 (28:16):
We only bet two dogs. Last week we went oh
and two.

Speaker 1 (28:18):
Yeah, but but in the week before that. Definitely.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Yeah, I'm just saying we've with Justin, we've been be
many more favorites and that's the only thing covering for us.
He's fucking dogs, man, I've just been killing us.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
Isn't that insane? Why do I feel like things have
been going better for us?

Speaker 2 (28:34):
I know we've had winning weeks, but like that last
week was just the is the typical? Is like our
stupid favorites came through and our dogs we love were
just dead dead on arrival.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
Browns were never dead. Browns were never dead. That my god, James,
You're always in it, which might bring us right back
to betting. Jamis plus four and a half against the
Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know, there's a part of
me that is feeling confident esque on the Titans.

Speaker 2 (29:06):
Because you know it's the spot where you're supposed to hit.
So yeah, maybe Thursday all will have more confidence. But
it's here right now. This is I don't know if
you're making exact but I'm not making a sign and says,
oh god.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
No, not even close. Also at risk of Matt Mitchell
grinching me, just being an asshole if I choose a
team that I feel really strongly about that. He thinks
people are gonna hate. Look, but I do think you
bet on the Saints here, like the it's like it was,
it's seven and a half. Yeah, it's moved to seven.
It's clearly a wise guy could be you, for all

(29:36):
I know, No Saints.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
I'm on Washington. Surprisingly.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
Wow, So Derek Carr has a concussion where a fracture
of risk are both Yah, Taysom Hill is out. Yes,
that is their whole offense. Yes, there is one trend
sort of fading the team that is covering by five
points or more. When you do that, you win at
a fifty six percent clip. That's what you can do

(30:01):
against the Commanders. There's one other game that fits that
this week. But I actually I don't have a strong
opinion on this game. I'm curious to hear why you
why you feel strongly about the Commanders.

Speaker 2 (30:12):
Uh, it's honestly just because how they performed against bad
teams this season. They're a team we talk all the time.
There's certain teams that you know that just their offense,
the way they are, they just roll teams once they
get rolling, right. The Commanders feel like that team that
you know, they had a brutal stretch there. You know,
he was banged up. They got really lucky on that
failed Mary or Hail Miller should say. But you know,

(30:36):
they played the Giants, I think they covered by five,
and then they had a run of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas,
and then they just smoked that Tennessee team. Right Like
when we look at the score, it was yeah, forty
two to nineteen when they played Tennessee. Now they went
in a bye week, So I'm with you that, Like
if this was a couple of weeks ago when I
still had worries about Jane Daniels being healthy and there's

(30:58):
you know a lot of the stuff we talk just
the regression we expected from that offense. We've seen now though,
when they can run the ball and get things moving
and they're healthy, they're just a really high powered offense.
So yeah, this could be the game where I'm you know,
walking into it and somehow New Orleans defense does step
up here. But I think you're in Agreeans. If they
put up twenty one and it's midway through the third quarter,

(31:20):
I just can't see a world where Desmond Ridder Whoever's
quarterback for the Saints can come back from being down,
let alone seven points, ten points or anything like that.
So yeah, just it feels like a type of game
where they just Washington rolls. And that's why they did
give us the seven and a half because they're just like, someone,
please come and bet the Saints team. We need this money.
So it makes sense they'd move it now it's back down.

(31:41):
Like you said, the professionals bet it. It's it's a game.
I'm happy to sit out.

Speaker 1 (31:45):
I think you're confusing Spencer Rattler for Desmond Ridder. We
do have a huge Desmond Ridder spot.

Speaker 2 (31:53):
Oh yes, yes, yes, yes, this week.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
However, I think it's gonna be in a former team.
You're right, Jay Hayner for the Saints who came in
last week when when Derek Carr was hurt, and he's
the guy who replaced Spencer Rattler when early in the
season when he was terrible. Yeah, I don't. I can't
argue with anything you're saying, other than you play the

(32:15):
bad team getting seven at home against the team that
is going to be such a huge that. I mean,
it's it's the chalky. It might be the chalkiest play
on the board when we get down to it.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
I had to look at Spot. They a Philly on
deck next week. Like I I'm telling you, the old
school guys, they're going to hit this like you're saying, well,
it's New Orleans, Spot.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
I'm just school though. You know what you are. You're
a new school You're a modern age gambler. You can
make adjustments. You don't. You don't have to be beholden
to old school trends. That's not how you roll, Simon.

Speaker 2 (32:53):
You're your own man now. I mean, obviously we never
get two world news here, but I'm feeling pretty good
at my lene. At least my generation didn't try to
assassinate or president and had a hitman take out a
CEO of a health company. So millennials are doing good.
Gen Z on the other side, what the fuck is
going on with gen Z Jets?

Speaker 1 (33:13):
Jesus Christ, Simon. I guess my point is this feels
like this feels like a spot to play the Saints
New York Jets at Jacksonville. Jacksonville plus three and a half.
You know what, The streak is over? The Jets were
dogs this past week. Finally they're back to be in favorites.

(33:35):
Thank god, the world has come back to its senses.
It's spinning on its axis one more time. How do
we handicap this game? Interim coach versus a lame duck coach,
backup QB versus an over the hill QB one QB

(33:56):
who won a game he should have lost and Mac
Jones one QB he lost a game he should have won.
In Ann Rogers, the numbers going up went from three
to three and a half. Like somebody likes the Jets
in this spot.

Speaker 2 (34:10):
Yeah, it's the same group of professionals that have liked
them every week, and once again they're moving the number
for us, and they're giving us value. Like I would
have been right there with I probably would have passed
on this the Jaguars coming off a win. But are
we seeing a little pattern here with Mac Jones a
three and a half?

Speaker 1 (34:24):
Yep?

Speaker 2 (34:25):
Like should we not overthinking and just take the three
and a half when they're When Mac Jones is playing
against a bad team, it seems like he's gonna keep
us in it. Whether you know that Tennessee game, like
they just did absolutely nothing for three quarters, they scored
ten ten points in the fourth quarter and they won
that game outright, which is just crazy. I think no
points the entire game, Then the fourth quarter they scored

(34:45):
ten points. You know, maybe am I overacting too much
for a divisional game? Could be that's fair, But the Jets,
I don't know. Even when we were losing Chad, like
we talked about last week, I never felt in doubt.
I felt like the Jets were gonna Jets eventually. So
we'll bet this. Maybe we'll get slapped in the face

(35:06):
and I might force us to put this in the
contest at three and a half, But it's like we're
getting a good number once again against an overvalued Jets
team that they're in the same exact spizes as Jaguars team. Like,
at least we've seen the Jaguars team playing hard. This
Jets team's coming off you can't have a more deflating loss,
and now they're on you know, they're coming back home

(35:26):
for this game where it's like I just can't even
imagine the fans. The only thing that's gonna hesitation. Evan
had those amazing stats, but how much better Rogers has
been at home than on the road, And that's coming
off his best road game of the season, Like it
was very bizarre. So yeah, I'm i'm I'm I'm happy
to take the Jags of three and a half, but
if this was two and a half in contest, I

(35:47):
just avoid.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
This one hold on one sec because I want to
make sure isn't this game in the game is in Jacksonville.

Speaker 2 (35:55):
Yes, yeah, sorry, sorry, that's what I meant. Though they're
back to back road games. It's just I feel like
a brutal spot for this Jets team.

Speaker 1 (36:01):
Yeah, and also, you know what, they're a bad team,
Like like we're gonna talk about this. I don't think
there's two teams getting more attention for being bad teams
this year than the Jets and the Bears. And it's
stunning to me that these wise guys, whoever they are,
that can be your your assignment, simon. Find out who

(36:24):
the freaking the syndicate is better you.

Speaker 2 (36:26):
And they're on it. Though they hit the six and
a half last week on the Jets literally.

Speaker 1 (36:30):
Later the first time, I know, But every other week.

Speaker 2 (36:33):
They're fucking dancing in the book now because they were like, see,
I knew it would come around evention. It's like, yeah,
that's why I said though, they were just going to
keep hitting black until it hit fucking black, and it
did hit it. They're coming back for more. That's the
craziest part.

Speaker 1 (36:46):
To me.

Speaker 2 (36:46):
It's like you got away with one, just walk away,
and they're they're being the opposite. So I, like I said,
though I get why they would bet at two and
a half, I don't really get the bet at three.
To me, the three was the value on the Jags.
Now three and a half, that's a ton of value
on the Jags, especial across that key number.

Speaker 1 (37:00):
Baltimore at the New York Giants. The New York Giants
are now fifteen point underdogs. Crazy the Ravens coming off
the bye I will tell you that. Yesterday afternoon after
Sincey Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, Jets and Jaguars. I actually

(37:22):
was thinking to myself, I would just love it if
all of these teams had to buy, like you didn't
have to research them talk about them. Fifteen points in
the NFL is to me the equivalent of twenty five
or thirty points in college football. Like that's that's how
big it is. It's rare. Maybe Evan can figure this

(37:45):
out while we're on the call and you can throw
it in the chat, like, how many times has there
been in fifteen point favorite in the past fifteen years?
You know it's going to be the Patriots a bunch
of times against the Dolphins that the mid twenty tens.
But this is what happens when Drew Lock startsh to eight,

(38:06):
goes twenty one to forty nine, completes forty three percent
of his passes, and even most of those come like
in the final two drives when the Giants are on
their way to winning, maybe at least covering as as
one of us expected them to do. What is your
true power rating for this game?

Speaker 2 (38:28):
It's right like I had it at fourteen and a
half there to bump up to fifteen now, is that
makes sense to me? Like if the books move this
up to seventeen, I would still be tempted, honestly take
the Ravens just because what you just talk about, Drew
Lock is maybe one of the worst quarterbacks I've watched,
and we've seen a lot of bad quarterback play. I mean,
at one point he had started that game, I think

(38:48):
oh for nine or like oh for ten against.

Speaker 1 (38:50):
The so for eight he started oh for eight.

Speaker 2 (38:52):
Over eight, Yes, So oh man, this is just a
Ravens team that we think are pretty good coming off
a bye week after a really bad loss to Philadelphia,
like you would expect Lamar to put up his classic
four touches, Like I can already see Stucky being like
Ravens first half, take that number, whatever the line is,

(39:12):
because that's just that's this kind of spot for this
Ravens team to come out and just whoop this team.
You know, they haven't had too many blowouts this year, right,
that could be the hesitation that, like, you know, maybe
we're overrating this Ravens team. They're not the Ravens team
of the pass that would just roll and blow out
these teams.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
But they can't. They can't stop the pass. That's kind
of my fear on this is the Giants are down
three touchdowns and there's two minutes left in the game
and Drew Locke just starts fearlessly uncirking, and instead of
all those balls going in complete or being intercepted, four

(39:52):
of them are caught and they score with thirty seconds left,
and yeah, bang open the back door because the Lion
the Ravens defense is just so bad against the pass,
like truly terrible, one of the worst in the league.
So that's like the fear here.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
Yeah, I agree with that. That's what I was gonna say, Like,
we've only really seen it because they've had a really
hard schedule, and if you look at the Ravens schedule
is the reason I like they're under but they're probably
gonna end up hitting this over. They're probably gonna get
the overturn and a half, but just gonna look at
their schedule, I thought, man, this is a really tough
schedule we've seen this year that I mean, their only
really blow out wind shed is against Denver. They beat
them like forty one to nine or forty one to ten,

(40:30):
and that was a game we talked about like they
were going for on fourth downs and they just didn't
bounced their way for Denver and bon Nicks right, that
probably would have been a little closer if some things
had come through. But it's like this, this is we've
seen now that the Ravens can't blow out certain teams
in certain matchups. So for us, I don't know if
it's going to make our contest because we've we've played big,

(40:51):
big lines like this. But it was literally Detroit at
home against inferior teams when they were Detroit was healthy,
like Detroit's the class of the class ball right now,
we don't really have that same view of this team.
And I agree with your statement of that's the fear
is the back door. So it's a type of bed
that if you make, you're gonna need them to be
build twenty eight points head into the fourth quarter this

(41:11):
range this team, and if not, you're going to be
sweating this bet to the very end.

Speaker 1 (41:15):
Fifteen plus point favorites. This is how good Evan Abrams
is and everyone should tell him that. When we're at
the Weekend Wolf on Thursday night, everyone tells Evan he's amazing.
Everyone asks Matt Mitchell why he's a grnch. Don't forget.
Those are the two assignments. Twenty twenty three, it happened
four times, fifteen point favorites were two and two against

(41:36):
the spread. Twenty twenty two, it happened three times, the favorites
were zero to three. Twenty one it happened seven times, wow,
eight times, and the favorites were four to three and one.
This is the first time there was a fifteen plus
point favorite on the road since twenty twenty one. That
was the Buffalo Bills who lost the game against Jacksonville,

(42:04):
So you know we got that as a reference point.
I will say when I do the some of the
research on Mondays, I'll go to NFL Next Gen Stats,
which anybody can go to NFL dot com. You just
got to pay like seventy five bucks and get access
for everything. They will list twenty four different head to
head metrics for offense and defense, rushing and passing when

(42:27):
teams play each other. Of the twenty four listed the Ravens,
and then they sort of grade it. Is it like
a five star advantage, meaning it's overwhelmingly in favor of
one unit versus the other, or a one star where
it's a slight favorite. Between a one star and five
star advantage. The Ravens had it for every single category

(42:53):
except for one intermediate passing. The Giants are nineteenth, the
Ravens twenty nine. So I know, like the Giants is
with multiple quarterbacks. But that's what made me think Giants
are gonna be down, dink and dunk fifteen twenty yards
down the field and they score a touchdown, because that's

(43:14):
the one thing the Ravens are worse at. Yeah, irrational fear.
Simon Simon says, we own exec decision.

Speaker 2 (43:22):
I have two.

Speaker 1 (43:22):
I really like all right, well I got I got two.
I really like two. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is minus five.
This one's taking a jump like it went from four
and a half on Sunday night to five and a
half most places. It came back down to four and
a half nearly everywhere except that three sixty five. So
look around, get the five if you like the Steelers.

(43:47):
Look the Eagles had made some noise the past twenty
four hours. Brendan Graham. I don't know if you saw
this on WIP. I did Philadelphia, but he came out
and basically said, Jalen Hurst and AJ Brown aren't friends anymore.
Jalen Hurts, who is AJ Brown's kids godfather? There was

(44:07):
a lot of noise after that game, right, Jalen Hurts
through for one hundred and eight yards. He has the
fewest passing attempts of any quarterback starting quarterback in the
league this year. Yes, AJ Brown, point blank, what's going
on with the offense? He just said one word after
the game, passing throwing his helmet on the field or

(44:28):
on the sideline. DeVante Smith saying we're not on the
same page. Something going on with his offense, like as
good as Saquon is, Jalen struggling, And that's been a
theme for two years now.

Speaker 2 (44:41):
Yeah, I was. I forgot to bring it up because
I had an amazing stat for someone like you that's
just been hating on Hurts. You have him in your
top ten coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing
this season. Before this weekend, him and Josh Allen had
literally these same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers,
for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally
the exact same. So on one hand, Josh Josh Allen's

(45:04):
the greatest if you ever have the greatest season ever,
And here's Chad just shooting on Hurtz who's having literally
the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously, Josh has
pulled ahead now with this.

Speaker 1 (45:13):
Is that true?

Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah? It was because because Hurts has the cheat code
of the twelve rushing touchdowns for the Tousch push, and
now he's even more because they just did it again
this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the touch push.
Didn't hear much people shooting on him about it. Getting
touch pushed into the end zone. Uh yeah, I think
you know AJ is a diva, Like I knew a
j was a diva coming in the Brandon Grant things

(45:35):
spooky because it's like he didn't say they weren't fends.
He's basically saying Jalen Hurts is like trying to make
things work, and AJ is basically saying fuck off, Like
I don't even talk to you right now, which is
like terrifying, Like I agree with you. That's that's that's
not what I want to hear. But it's like, dude,
your your team is the two seed. You haven't lost

(45:56):
in seven eight weeks. Like it just sucks that people
have this person eyes where it's never good enough, you know,
like keep it in the house, just keep your mouth shut.
He didn't need to make that sound bite to get
everyone going crazy like this, but hopefully that worked through it.
But like, you know, AJ's in a weird spot where
I get he went. I guess he wants the ball.

(46:16):
But the Eagles are our run first team. They have
the best weapon of football right now in Saquon, So
it's like if Hurts goes out there, they throw for
three hundred yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers
and we lose. Is that a good thing? Is because
Aj is now happy because he got one fifty and
two touchdowns and a loss. It's like, I feel bad
for he doesn't really understand that they're like he because

(46:38):
I don't know if it was last year year before
he had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and
a ton of receiving. Yeah, and that was really fun.
But it's like we saw that last year that could
that didn't work once it got cold out, And like
you just said, Jalen Hurts, I'm with you. I agree
with you. He is not consistent that that is a
weakness of his where he's got a couple of quarterbacks
in this league that they need to see a couple
of three four catches in a row to find a them.

(47:00):
If they don't get those three four in a row,
he'll put up what he does did this past week
whatever it was eleven of nineteen, Like he'll just never
get in a rhythm really passing wise, and the new
personality of this Eagles team have just been a run
for his team has not helped that. So I do
agree with that, but in this matchup, I mean this number,
Like we we talked about, it's so telling that who's

(47:22):
betting the Eagles. I don't get it. That's why I'll
never understand this number shown me all bet Pittsburgh and
then just let this fall where in May it's like
Pittsburgh earned that respect. And you know, we talked on Sunday,
I was a little worried about the number because it's like,
what's going with Pickens. Now We've had Tomlin sound by
saying he's probably not gonna play. He said, it's really
doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. You know that

(47:45):
that that's a big deal, Like that is a big
deal against an Eagles defense that is legit, like obviously
they're cryptonite is other white guys. Adam Feeling tore them
up last week, But overall this has been a really
stingy defense. And even against that Ravensteam, we saw they
can make stops when they need to in big time spots.

(48:06):
So yeah, it's it's a game right on with the
du chat. I really want to take Pittsburgh. I just
am worried whor I'm missing something here that maybe I'm
over value in Pittsburgh and this is the right time
to jump off, But why is this number not three
three and a half. That's my biggest issue in me.
It's like even my model thinks this is two overvalued,
so even the human element take it out of it.
It's like, okay, we're supposed to take Pittsburgh here.

Speaker 1 (48:28):
Mike Tomlin as a road dog of between four and
six points nearly sixty five percent against the spread. He's
basically north of sixty percent in every category breakdown as
a dog, Like I know, we're always looking to thread
the needle on these things and pick the spot where

(48:50):
we think it's going to work. We did it with
the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
You know, this line's fishy, though.

Speaker 1 (48:56):
It's totally fishy because so fishy, it's it's completely fishy.
I worry that that the Eagles will react to this
week's drama and come out better than ever.

Speaker 2 (49:10):
Oh yeah, that was a loss, that Carolina game. That
that feels like a loss in that locker room, right.

Speaker 1 (49:15):
Yes, yeah, one hundred percent. They didn't. They are not
walking out of that game thinking, yeah, we've won nine
in a row, there's still the two seed, and we've
got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that,
but they continue to have a dominant defensive line and
their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is

(49:38):
second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And look,
you could argue you can if not for the fact
Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic
fashion in some really high profile moments. Saquon the odds
should be much closer. Josh Allen is like minus four hundred.
Saquon is plus four hundred. It should be more like

(50:00):
minus one hundred, you know, plus two hundred. Because Saquon
is leading a team that is number two in the conference,
that has a better record, and he's on track to
break one of the most sacred records in all of football,
which is the total rushing yardage record in a season.
Josh Allen's team has three losses, right, and he's on

(50:24):
track to do miraculous things. But how many records is
he going to break? He's just going to be a
spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really
good record. I mean, I don't know, I have a
Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so
fun to watch, love his attitude, I love his athleticism.
I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I

(50:45):
love the fact that he's sticking it to the Giants.
But I feel like I got a bit on Tomlin. Yeah,
there's just no reason not to.

Speaker 2 (50:57):
I know, I hate it because it just feels way
too easy. But again, it was easy. It has been winning.
Like last week the Chargers felt really way too easy,
and that's what was spooking me on that number as well.
And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is
the spy you take them. It's it's over a field goal.
You take the Chargers over a field goal against the Chiefs.
The same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like everyone, I'm talking
even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window

(51:18):
goes Pittsburgh easy spend of the week. There's no way
that Tomlin, no way loses by three. And it's like, fuck, man,
I'm making that same bet. God damn it.

Speaker 1 (51:26):
I know this. This was my second choice for executive
decision the Steelers. Yeah, but I'm pulling back. If you
and I end up having the same game, if it's
different sides, that just might make it more interesting. But
let's just let's just see Indianapolis at Denver. Like we
talked about this on Sunday night, just eyeballing it. My
first instinct was I liked Indy right now, India is

(51:49):
a very public dog majority of the tickets. Uh, there
is that same trend that backs the Saints, backs the
Colts here Denver's team that has been consistently covering by
an average of more than five points per game. When
that is happening, you back the underdog. They covered a
fifty six percent clip. But I don't have a strong

(52:12):
opinion about it. I don't know if you've developed anything
over the past few days. I can't my way in.

Speaker 2 (52:17):
I did. I hit the Colts and it was more like, okay,
these these feel like two teams that are fringe playoff teams,
and this is the right matchup that this number should
not be five, and we've seen it now come down
to four and a half for in a lot of books,
three and a half three is another. This game feels
like it should be three and a half three. So
I do see it settling down there because I just
think more professional money will come in on this Colts team.
But I'm shocked that you said that early here that

(52:39):
people are backing this Colts team just because I thought
everyone just be so in love that bo Nick, especially
you know, he got to cover for them against that
Cleveland team before he hadding to the bye week. So
maybe it's maybe the early money is just professional money
because I don't know why Joe Publrick's coming on this,
right there's other games I see, like the public coming on. Yeah,
yeah for sure, Yeah, I like the Colts. I'd take

(53:00):
it down to three and a half. So if you
can still get four and a half for four, that
that to me is good value right.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Now, all right, here we go. I don't know if
this is your game, but it's my da Now, okay,
Buffalo at Detroit.

Speaker 2 (53:15):
How about how about a little kick ass on three?

Speaker 1 (53:18):
One two three. Detroit is now a one and a
half point favorite. It's come down from two and a
half down two down to one and a half in
some spots. This is a very public dog play. Looking
at the current number, seventy percent of the tickets are

(53:39):
on Buffalo, forty one percent of the money is on Detroit.
So if you think about it, if seventy percent of
the tickets are on Buffalo and thirty percent are on
Detroit forty one percent of the money slightly more lean
from a professional point of view on Detroit. Even though

(54:02):
this number has been coming down, I'm making the lines
of my exact decision.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
Wow, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are
you your own executive decision. I'll support it just because
the line movement, But I mean it was up to
three Sunday night. I said that was way too much.
That you're in close three on a Josh Allen that

(54:29):
he will keep you in and no matter of what,
he will backdoor that number because that was too much.
You're right though the movement public reception. Lions are the
better team on their on extended rest here, and they
didn't just go through an absolute track meet and they're
not on back to back road game. So it feels
like a lot of things are working against this Bills
team and this was just a brutal stretch. Now you

(54:52):
are getting incredibly desperate. Josh Allen that this has tended
to be a good spot to back him after a
loss playing against a team that I don't want to
say they overlook that Rams game. But Josh Allen just
wasn't right, and neither was obviously that defense to start
the game. Like I don't know if you had a
three and out or they had a couple of drops
to start, but all of a sudden, it was I
felt like it was twenty one to ten in that

(55:13):
game with the Rams. Here, we don't expect that to
be this type of game. But like you just said,
the value was going to eventually shift back to this
Detroit team, and you're right now that it's under two, Chad,
I'll support that move just because that's a really good
number on Detroit team. That could we lose this to
the best player in football and Josh Allen, Yes, But
now that it's under that key number, I could easily

(55:35):
see in this land at too and we cover this
like it just feels like a really nice number in
this spot.

Speaker 1 (55:39):
Yeah, the teams are so evenly matched. It's strength against
weakness on offense and strength against weakness on defense. Lion's
pass offense is amongst the best in the league. Bill's
pass defense is near the bottom.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
You know, So it's a great match. I mean, this
is a great match for Lions offense.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
It's a great matchup. And like the Bill's rushing offense
is elite and the Lions is mediocre. So to me,
it really comes down to, I mean, it's insane.

Speaker 2 (56:04):
That's insane.

Speaker 1 (56:05):
It's insane. It's like can the can the Lion stop
Josh Allen when he improvises, that's really when he's at
his best. Dan Campbell strategically versus Sean McDermott, I have
a much more, much more confidence than Dan Campbell making
the right calls to maximize the opportunity to win the game.

Speaker 2 (56:25):
You know your BET's coming down to a couple fourth downs.
That's what you know when you're making that The lines
right now, we know that's what it's coming down to.

Speaker 1 (56:31):
Lion's executing in high variant situations. So with this number,
like now that it's below two, I got to take
the lines. It's Simon. Can you name the best ticketing
app in the United States?

Speaker 2 (56:43):
Game Time?

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is it? Game talk?

Speaker 2 (58:00):
All right?

Speaker 1 (58:01):
Tampa Bay at the Chargers Chargers from three point favorites
on Sunday? You said you like Tampa. You liked them
last week against the Raiders as a really touchdown favorite. Yeah,
what are you seeing here?

Speaker 2 (58:13):
I just keep thinking every week this Tampa team's under
value that they don't get through respect they deserve. And
it's all because of the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
injuries that happened weeks ago.

Speaker 1 (58:22):
And by the way, you're so right, Like, I keep
thinking about this game, and I'm thinking, who are these people?
Why do they deserve to be in this close And
I keep forgetting that Mike Evans is back hurtling people.

Speaker 2 (58:34):
In that and the only way for me is Bucky Irving,
who to me has been the lifeblood of this team.
He was banged up. I think he played like five
snaps last week and they took him out because I
think they quickly realized what are we doing here? Why
are we playing them in this game where we're just
gonna roll these guys? Now, it did get close, right,
There was a couple bad termers by you know, Baker,

(58:55):
and we talk about that when we bet Baker, we
we don't know what game are getting. Like got the
Jamie Winston thing where he when Baker's bad, he is
truly bad. When he's on, he is lights out perfect.
And we've seen this season this Bucks team that they
kind of played the level of their competition. And on

(59:15):
the flip side, this Chargers team feels a little overrated
because they did cover that when they're when they are
missing all those guys. Now if they're once a going
tonna be out, be out without the number one receiver
and their number one running back against the Buccaneers team
that is relatively healthy coming into this matchup, I just
feel like this was going to be a close game throughout,
Like this is just two teams that all season have

(59:36):
just grinded out ugly close games in matchups. So I
just think three is too much. I have this game
closer to a pick. I have the I honestly have
the Chargers minus one just because of Herbert. He's just
been playing so well in certain spots this season where
it's like he deserves that respect that even with those
injuries to the offense, he obviously can still move the

(59:56):
ball himself. But overall, they're playing against now another Buccaneers
team that's a good playoff team, like they're leaving their
division right now, and I just don't think they're getting respect.
Like even when I look in the Action app, the
money in the bets right now are still coming on
this Chargers team. So yeah, I like this matchup for
this Bucks team, not just offensively but defensively. I think

(01:00:17):
there are ways for them to get stops and attack
this Chargers team. And yeah, Chad, it's it's just a
key number of three. I just like that number.

Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
Do we wait to see if it gets to three
and a half with the activity that's coming in in
the Chargers.

Speaker 2 (01:00:31):
Yeah, I'd be shocked if the books move there because
I feel like they would get a ton of Tampa
money like this. This to me feels right because they
did a couple of books they'd go to two and
a half and they took a lot of Chargers money
and they just moved it right back to three. So
it does feel like that the type of line the
books will just let the betting public decide where this goes.

Speaker 1 (01:00:48):
New England at Arizona. Arizona's a five and a half
point favorite. I was actually surprised that book bookmakers made
it close to seven on Sunday night. There were some
sevens out there on day mostly six and a half.
It's moved down to five and a half. It's like,
I get the move, but now it just feels like

(01:01:10):
it's in a dead zone where I have no opinion.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
That's fair. I honestly wanted to fade New England here because,
like to me, that seven did feel high, but it
felt right because we've seen now that they I don't
want to say they're a different team on the road,
but it is tough for Drake may right, like, you know,
being a rookie that he is. You know, they went

(01:01:35):
to Jacksonville, they got blown out. I don't even know
it was. It was like thirty to twelve, something crazy
like that. And we saw that in Miami game they
lost thirty four to fifteen. There's just been times where
he's going on the road and he's really struggled. Now
there are outliers, right, they went to Chicago they won
nineteen to three, but we already talk about we thought
we had that more to do with the coaching than
anything else. And this Arizona team, I don't know, it

(01:01:58):
feels like even though the the pitcher coming off the
bye week, I just like it feels like they're a
good team that's desperate now playing against a bad team
that I just don't think they're good. Like I really
don't like New England. I get their identity of being
to run the ball, and Drake May having big plays downfield,
and I think he has the highest average per rush
right now in the season where when he does run

(01:02:19):
he runs for like ten yards. But man, this the field,
like the Lions, move so much, it's tempting me to
buy azon A. So I'm gonna wait, take some sharp
calls here what the pros do on this one, because
that's clearly really smart money that's moved that all the
way down from seven to five and a half to
a lot of books now chat are shown four and
a half, So this number just keeps coming down.

Speaker 1 (01:02:38):
It's weird to me, Like my note about the Patriots,
It's why I didn't really have a strong opinion in
this is that at this point it's Drake May scrambling
for dear life and hoping he can improvise and do
a great play. By the way, another reason why Josh
Allen probably shouldn't win MVP of a record setting Saquon Barkley.

(01:03:03):
Josh Allen's not even the best scrambling quarterback in his division.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
Drake May, oh my god, oh my god.

Speaker 1 (01:03:10):
Clearly nobody knows what they're talking about. No one's looking
at the numbers. Numbers never lie green Bay at Seattle.
Seattle's a three point dog. I lean Seattle on Sunday night,
and this is a massive public dog right now. Based
on the current tickets, it seems like, and you said
this on Sunday, the wise guys are leaning towards the Packers,

(01:03:32):
one of the bigger pro Joe splits, and I think
it might be heading to three and a half. So
wise guys moving the book makers in that direction. The
one thing that scares me about the Seahawks the Packers
this year, for whatever reason, they are a ball hawking
defensive unit and Gino Smith has the second most interceptions

(01:03:53):
in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (01:03:55):
Simon says, go grab green Bay minus two and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:03:58):
Wow, when.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
We do what Science Day a couple of big public books,
touff two and a half. I love this Sunday. I
didn't really get it because I didn't know why it
wasn't three, and Chad just said it like it. Clearly
the public has a side they like, and it's the Seahawks.
I don't know why they're underrating this green Bay team
who just played so well on Thursday night against the

(01:04:22):
lines that we've just I don't know. I feel like
maybe I'm getting sucked into urdu with chat. But anytime
the AMC North is playing outside their division now and
they're under a three under a field goal, you have
to take them. What if there's a twenty eight to
three outside their division this season, it's incredible. How well
that's not including the the Bears obviously this is just

(01:04:44):
for the Green Bay Vikings and Lions. Uh but no,
it's it's crazy. So to me, I love the matchup
for Green Bay. I think their offense can move. We'll
be able to move the ball against Seahawks defense that
I just was like a little overrated right now. They've
had a couple of things break their way, and I
do agree they've been playing better, but look at the

(01:05:05):
competition they've been going up against. This is going to
be a really, really great test for them, just because
we've seen all season Laflour. He just has such great scripts,
like game scripts, and he knows the exact time to
call certain plays. And you know, even when the Green
Bay doesn't have that many possessions like they did against
the Lines, he still maximized the possessions they did have.

(01:05:26):
And yeah, this matchup to me, it's all about the number.
Like I really love green Bay. It was gonna make
us put it in no matter what. If it was
under three. I hope you're wrong. If this is three
and a half in the contest, I don't know confident
I am taking Green Bay and Mines three and a
half in the contest, But two and a half, it's like,
must be in. This is a great spot, great number
on a really good team that are desperate. They are

(01:05:49):
so desperate in this spot because of that loss last
week to the Lions team. So it all matches up
really well scheme wise for this Green Bay team.

Speaker 1 (01:05:56):
Really interesting. I'm looking at our notes right now, I'm
feeling like, if we can get a good number on Detroit,
a good number on Green Bay, We've got strong opinions
on at least two of the games that we would play.
And then we've got like fearful opinions on the Browns.
On the Steelers, yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
And then the Jaguars. We have some ugly dogs you
do like this week, But yeah, right now, me and
you are feeling definitely more confident about favorite betting.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
Well, here's a wild card for you. Chicago Bears are
seven point underdogs at Minnesota. Forget about my Bears bias.
Like strictly speaking from a market point of view, isn't
this an inflated line? Like I said, along with the Jets,
there's not another team in the NFL this year whose

(01:06:44):
failures are more discussed, highlighted, debated, whose future is a
hotter topic than the Chicago Bears. I think that has
a huge impact on the line. I think it has
a huge impact on how bookmakers think the pub lick
is viewing this team. Don't forget that is the baseline
for bookmaking. What do book makers think the public is

(01:07:09):
going to think? And they set the number accordingly to
try to trap public betters into making decisions that are
in favor of the book. Now they are coming off
a legit ass kicking while the Vikings doubled up the Falcons.

(01:07:32):
The book makers are telling me that they expect the
public to come in on the Vikings at no matter
what the number, because of the perception of the Bears
and because of what the Vikings have been doing. Why
aren't I betting the Bears here?

Speaker 2 (01:07:50):
I don't know. Maybe because it is something we talked
about too. Where the splits aren't great for Killer Williams
on the road compared to his home place. He's just
been a different GB on the road compared at home.
And obviously this is a team that saw seven straight games.
This is a third straight road game, which is obviously
tough on a team, especially one that is coming off
two straight road losses. And Minnesota they did take the

(01:08:14):
foot off the gas last time they played, and I
don't think that's gonna happen here, Chad, Like they were
up fourteen to that fourth quarter, came back that game,
god to ot. I think it did go overtime and
they had to squeak out a field goal just to
beat that Bears team. So I just can't see them
doing that again this week. Like I feel like this
is the type of game where, you know, Coach of
the Year Ken O'Connell just beats the shit out of
the Bears if you can and just run the score up.

(01:08:36):
But my biggest reason I want to fade the Vikings
just because of Sam Darnold coming off whatever that was
a five touchdown perfect game. Like it's it's really tough
because I'm right there with you. I'm looking for reasons
to take this Bears team and maybe I just should
just give up and stop overthinking, just take the seven.
But it's like, why is this number so big? I'm

(01:08:58):
in total agreements with you, and it's just maybe it's
just because of everything I just said that. This is
three straight road games for the Bears. They haven't won
in seven weeks. Any normal team that's gonna wear on you,
wearing your soul, and you saw that last week. They
looked totally lost, even though Caleb didn't stop trying, right
he came on the second half, thrown and they put
up a good fight. But yeah, this is two totally

(01:09:20):
different organizations right now. Like one is just totally surprised,
feeling great feel on top of all. The other one
is just totally disappointed. You know, we joked about coming
to the season. Their win total was nine and a
half on the Bears. It was six and a half
for this Vikings team. I mean, just totally different opposite
sides of the world at this point in the season. So, yeah, Jah,
this is one I'll stay away from right now. But

(01:09:42):
I'm with you. My initial gut reaction was like, just
take the seven, don't overthink it.

Speaker 1 (01:09:46):
You can have one with that. The other you can't
have the Vikings be inflated and look for that opportunity
and not believe that the Bears are undervalued in this spot.
That's how the number gets the set. If you don't
have both things, then the number is probably closer to
say four and a half or five. So I'm not like,

(01:10:08):
I don't feel strongly we have to get this one in.
But to me, this was the best example of seeing
a by low a by low Sell high scenario for
this week's late So.

Speaker 2 (01:10:21):
The Bears again give credit to the Bears that they
have played great in their division, like that Green Bay
game they lost twenty nineteen against Minnesota, they lost thirty
to twenty seven against their Troy lost twenty three to
twenty all three of those games they easily could have
flipped one. That's why they fired their head coach. So
it is an interesting spot.

Speaker 1 (01:10:37):
Look the last game Atlanta, the Raiders. Raiders are four
and a half. This is the Desmond Raider revenge game. Yeah,
or it's the Kirk Cousins gets healthy game, or it's
the game you don't pay attention to because you're watching
the Bears and the Vikings.

Speaker 2 (01:10:53):
I mean, we obviously don't have to spend that much
time when we'll get out of here just so we
get right onto the mark for Matt Mitchell here. But yeah,
I look at this one as I'll take Atlanta and
I won't watch a second on this game, which is
how does Atlanta not bounce back?

Speaker 1 (01:11:04):
Here?

Speaker 2 (01:11:04):
Kirk hasn't thrown a touchdown. It feels like four or
five weeks. This is the perfect get right spot against
a Raiders team that you know should have faded them
last week. Pissed we didn't because that was a spot
anytime they played tough against the Chiefs you just faded
the following week. This Raiders team against the Falcons, you know,
this is just a bad matchup, a raw for the Raiders.

(01:11:25):
So yeah, I'll take the Falcons, but not anything like
in our contest or anything.

Speaker 1 (01:11:30):
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