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September 24, 2024 71 mins

The final NFL slate of September delivers some fun surprises. Cincinnati and Tennessee find themselves as winless road favorites. The undefeated Steelers head to Indianapolis. And Josh Allen and the red-hot Buffalo Bills travel to Baltimore for Sunday Night Football. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter survey every game on the board and discuss their top betting matchups across the NFL, including a long look at Rams visiting the Bears in Chicago, the Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys on Thursdays and so much more. 

Plus, we get a recap of Week 3 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Noman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
Today is our Tuesday, Week four episode. We will break
down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss

(00:29):
our exec decision and our assignment says. We will start
to narrow down the options for our five phaves to
put in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
Football Pick Them Contest. We went two and three last week.
Always frustrating when we have so many games we like,
so many games. We talked about on the pod that

(00:49):
we said we were betting, that we did bet and
then put all the wrong games into the contest.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
But we did good work.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
We feel okay, feeling very optimistic. We're moving on live
from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always
by my co host Might BFF, my companion Michael Padre,
professional Better Simon Hunter Ello.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
So I'm in.

Speaker 3 (01:14):
Hello chid No. It's good to hear brother. It's like
the song I get knocked down, I Get up again.
You're never going to keep me down. I want to
keep the vibes high. My Phillies won our division for
the first time in thirteen years, and unfortunately on a
day that should have been a celebration, the Monday night
game didn't break our way. But like you said, we're

(01:35):
moving on. Not can get two being down by that.
We bet on ugly teams here. Sometimes they do not
get off the bus. That's how it is. Yeah, when
you're bet ugly teams, it can get ugly fast.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
Look, it's just it's always annoying when we go through games.
And like we knew we were betting the Panthers, but
we wouldn't put it in. We knew we were betting
the Giants, but we wouldn't put it in. Like, those
things are so frustrating, But whatever, we move on.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
I feel good about the work.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
I already feel good about some of the games you
and I have discussed that I have already bet.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
Yeah, you nailed it. You had a couple of good
calls Sunday nightshoed.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
Yeah, I'm feeling good. In a moment, we'll recap the
results of week three in our Contents contest announce the
winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you
haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the Free
Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
contest presented.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
By Bet three six y five.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites is
presented by Bet three six y five and now new
Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in
bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using
promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for
five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.

(02:54):
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.

Speaker 3 (02:58):
And more.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at beout three six five.
Must be twenty one or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

(03:19):
restrictions apply all right. Easiest week in the contest with
three percent of participants going five and oh. Congrats to
all those who did it. The Week three first place
winner by year by year, I like that by year,
win five and oh in the contest and missed the

(03:40):
tiebreaker by just one yard. As always, Matt Mitchell has
selected his Producer's Cup award to the entry that finished
dead fucking last in the contest.

Speaker 3 (03:54):
About the Lordsome lose.

Speaker 4 (03:57):
He's a Louis about his try.

Speaker 1 (04:04):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to j Burnett thirty, who
went zero to five missed the tiebreaker by four hundred.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
And eighty four yards.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
Jay Burnett email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com
to claim your prize.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Let's get to it.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally
we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday,
Thursday night, Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line
is four and a half. You said right away bet this,
and it was at five and a half you were
worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys
have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down.

(04:42):
Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the Hot Reads segment
on the Overnight Pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams.
I love that segment. I betted at four and a half.

Speaker 3 (04:55):
Yeah, I bet it, Toune. I think it's just a
little professional money game, and it took the Giants to
show them the money line. It's all bad right now for
the Cowboys, Right, It's just I understand that why they're
pushing up against it, And I told you it was
the same reason I wanted to take the Ravens. Right,
they can't stop the run and they can't run the ball.
The Cowboys can't do the two most important things right

(05:16):
now in the NFL. Right, we've seen a shift in
this league that if you can't run the ball and
teams can make you one dimensional, you're just not going
to succeed. So it's it's crazy like we went on
a crazy run where Dallas is untouchable at home and
now going back to that Green Bay game the playoffs
last year, they've had three straight home games and they've
just gotten dominated. It's it's pretty pretty wild to think that,

(05:40):
like this is a team that we were down coming
in on the season, and a lot of things we
were questioning has proved to be true. Right. They don't
have a running back. They should have paid Derek Henry,
which I know all the talk shows are going to
talk about, but it's true. It's like you're paying your
third string quarterback five million dollars Trey Lance. Would you
rather have him or Eric Henry. It just doesn't make

(06:01):
sense why Jerry didn't make that move. So you know,
they're a team that people want to fade right now,
and I'm going the other way. Chat you know how
I like to do it, but it is the public side.
But we talk all the time on Thursday night games.
I don't get as worried about it being such a
public heavily side, just because it is an island game.
And you know, this historically is the spot to take

(06:22):
Dak and this Cowboys team. They just own the Giants historically.
You know, in this exact spot last year. I think
there was week when they played they beat them forty
to nothing. Are they still that same team? No, we
think the Giants have gotten better and we think Dallas
has gotten worse. I think it's a bit of an
overcorrection though, right just because the Giants played so well
last week and Dallas to look played so bad that

(06:43):
I agree with Brandon Anderson. I had this at six
six and a half, so I'm gonna take the value
like you said at four and a half, and I
could see this line going back up to five to
five and a half. Six.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:52):
The real question, and look it got down to four
has been back up back up to four and a half.
The real question isn't would you rather have Derek Henry
or Trey Lance. The real question is would you rather
have Mike McCarthy or Bill Belichick? Think about that, the
Cowboys got blown out by the Packers. We thought Jerry
Jones would have hired Bill Belichick.

Speaker 2 (07:14):
At halftime of that game.

Speaker 1 (07:16):
Do you remember we were at one of our live
shows for that and we were all over the Packers
of touchdown dogs and that game was done within the
first five minutes of the game, and we were all joking,
oh my god, all right, when are they going to
fire mc McCarthy. The fact they kept Mike McCarthy, I
gotta tell you, like the way GM zone owners make

(07:37):
decisions about their coaches, Like we can't believe the Bears
kept Matt Eberfluse and hired the offensive corner they did
when they were clearly going to lose a year of
Caleb Williams as a rookie in his rookie contract. Right,
it makes no sense why Mike McCarthy is still the
coach of this team. Was a jerry not wanting to

(07:59):
pay two coaches at one time and cheapen out. He
didn't get defensive line help, like there's weakness on the
offensive line, there's weakness in the backfield, like it's a mishmash. However,
we bet the Giants last week. They got the exact
right team at the exact right time for the exact

(08:20):
right line.

Speaker 2 (08:22):
The Browns had won the week.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
Before against what is clearly a terrible Jacks team. The
line got inflated. The Giants had lost the week before
because they couldn't kick any extra points because they made
a bad roster decision. They blizzed fifty seven percent of
the time against Deshaun Watson.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
That was the highest for.

Speaker 1 (08:39):
Any team in Week three, and they didn't make mistakes
on offense. But the Cowboys were so bad and the
Giants were so good that I still feel like there's
value in this line.

Speaker 2 (08:50):
Screams get right.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
Spot for DAK Division Dogs on Thursday Night Football, the
last decade forty four percent against the spread, which is
something you say all the time.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
Yeah, like you don't.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
Need to bet the dogs in this spot on Thursday night.
You went against it last week too with the Jets
and the Pats.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
And just to touch on real quickly, we said about
the coaching, which I totally agree with, is it feels
like it's the old boys club, right. The Bears have
old ownership. Jerry's an old owner, like they like these guys.
They make them their friends instead of making a real
business decision. So I totally agree with you. We said
it last year the Bears should have moved on and
got an offensive minded guide to pair with their young quarterback,

(09:32):
and now they're suffering for it. And with the Cowboys,
there's no excuse, right, They kept McCarthy, they brought in
Mike Zimmer. Neither moves that look like they're paying off
right now this season. So it's all bad in Dallas.
But I'm backing them in the spot.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
It's terrible, it's awful. We're backing them in the spot.
Thank god we can't put them in the contest, cause
I agree, and we'd be totally totally screwed. Denver at
the New York Jets. Look, we said last week we
never have to bet the Broncos again, right, we got
them in the exact right spot somehow. Despite all their
good fortune last week, they are still a luck rankings

(10:09):
team to back and this season dogs of six plus points,
eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the
spread through three weeks, covering by nine points per game.
So I know I lean Jets here. It's not a

(10:30):
must bet, not even a contest play for me at
like your thoughts before I dig in a little bit deeper,
I thought.

Speaker 3 (10:36):
You're gonna talk. I saw even a dumber stat that's
just how crazy and walking this year. And I don't
know how. I mean, you aren't up millions of dollars?
Dogs are so stupid more or four? No, Chad, straight up,
straight up?

Speaker 2 (10:52):
Yeah, Like, how are we not?

Speaker 1 (10:54):
How are we not fifteen to oh when our lives
betting big dogs, like we've made so many bad decisions
like getting caught in the moment. We're not gonna go
into a rabbit hole, Simon, We're.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
Just gonna But I'm just I'm bringing out the point
here of they know what they're doing with this line.
I want to take Denver, But I think Chad's right.
I got a hold, firm and go the Jets. This
is a good matchup for this Jets offense and defense,
I mean defensively. We know what this Jets team can do,
especially up front. And you know the bronc was coming
off a double digit win now on their back to

(11:28):
back road games. This historically is a letdown spot for
a vetteran team, let alone a very young team. So
we see this now coming down a little bit. Right
at what's seven and a half? It's down to seven.
I'm gonna wait, hope and get the six and a
half right if it crosses seven, But if it does
go back up with seven and a half and a
lot of books, I'll jump in real quick and grab
the seven. But I'm gonna wait on this number for

(11:50):
a little bit.

Speaker 2 (11:51):
Yeah, it's so tricky.

Speaker 1 (11:54):
I know we want to believe in bo Nix. I
know we both liked him in training camp. I know
we have bet the Bronc pretty consistently in this early
part of the year. The trends at least for this
year back the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (12:08):
It's really.

Speaker 1 (12:10):
Do we think that they are overvalued?

Speaker 3 (12:13):
Now?

Speaker 1 (12:13):
The Jets because of what they did against the Patriots.
Or do we think that the Broncos are actually better
than they had been the first couple of weeks of
the season and they were really more like the team
that they were against the Buccaneers. That's really the situation.
I guess we're gonna hold out. Yeah, we're going to

(12:34):
hold out, all right, since he at Carolina, since he's
a four.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
And a half point favorite.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
Well, well, well, simon, the team we love the most
in the offseason.

Speaker 3 (12:51):
One game out of first.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
To tango with the Chiefs for the AFC title.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
Bengals, No, and the team we love the most in
the offseason to outperform expectations. It is a battle of
favorites Titans this weekend.

Speaker 5 (13:13):
Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry.

Speaker 1 (13:18):
We love these teams, both have been letting us down.
The Bilow cell High philosophy would tell us to take
the Bengals here one hundred percent. Do we go against
the Red Rifle in his first home start after revitalizing
this moribund team. I will say one of the bigger

(13:41):
luck rankings game this week favors the Bengals.

Speaker 3 (13:47):
Yeah. I want to take the Bengals, and I feel
like you're right, but it's like this number feels too
high for how bad this Bengals defense is, like, and
he's going to get opportunities on offense. And we talked
about like that offensive line is pretty damn good for Carolina.
They were the fifth graded pass blocking offensive line heading
to that Raiders game. Now they're up to number three
after facing Wilkins and Max Crosby. Who scares you. I mean,

(14:10):
I guess Hendrix is pretty good on this front for
the Bengals, But overall, just this Bengals team feels so
damn young. I feel like there's ways that can be attacked.
So to me, the number is still too high. Like
I was gonna play this one even before last night's results.
And you know, we saw something we'd never seen before
in the history of the NFL. Right it was two
teams played, they didn't pun a single time, and basically

(14:33):
every time they got the ball they got some type
of points. That was the first time that's happening in
a game since nineteen forty. So all the stature right now,
especially about Jayden Daniels and him offensively, I get it
like he might be a better right, they might be
better than this Carolina team. At the same time, it's like,
how much worse is this Carolina team? Right with Andy
Dlon like, there's some stuff they can do. I know,

(14:54):
Feeling just got it on the ir as well, which
is a big deal for them. Losing him as a
wide receiver. It doesn't sound like the it should be
a big deal, but Andy don't even knew and to
use him on third downs like he was a nice,
reliable safety blanket. So I'm not trying to overrate the
loss of him. But you know, Miles Sanders, Tuba Hubbard,
like their offense is a lot of stuff to like,
the question for us is defense, right, We're not going

(15:15):
to get stops with this Carolina team against Burrow. Burrow
was a man on a mission in that game, and
you know he lost that game because this team kicked
two field goals, like that was how they lost that game.
So you're right, Like, I'm torn on this one. I
want to be on the Bengals, but right now the
numbers too high. I have a three and a half,
so I'm getting a full point of value right now
unless Panthers team. So I'll take it, but not with

(15:37):
a ton of confidence, Like you're talking.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
I need more intel.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
I need to see where twelve hours removed, thirteen hours
removed from the games last night, Like I need to
know a lot more about this Bengals team. I feel
like they are the right side if we're playing Bilo
sell high. We got to sell the Panthers and we
got to buy the Bengals. But I'm not loving this
situation right now. Bigger question, simon, have the Philadelphia Eagles

(16:09):
been fixed? Because right now they are two and a
half point favorites at Tampa Bay. One of the one
of one of the games that you pegged on Sunday night. Yea,
the Bucks were plus two. You wanted this to go higher.
It went higher Monday afternoon it got to two and
a half. This is this is like to me, a
battle of who can cover with a much thinner roster, right,

(16:36):
like the like the the box that without vitavea Anchwine.
Winfield has missed his missed his second straight game against den.

Speaker 3 (16:44):
Now we need were betting the Bucks here like.

Speaker 2 (16:47):
Luke their their tackle.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
Luke Gotti Key missed Week three with the concussion, which
is why Denver was in Baker's face all day while
Lane Johnson concussion, Davonte Smith concussion. AJ Brown we don't
know yet, but it's hard to know for certain he
will come back from a hamstring injury. And by the way,
the Eagles have a bye the week after this, do

(17:12):
they sit all these guys and let everyone get healthy
with an extra week of rest? Like why do we
let Why did you peg the box as a team
you liked here.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
Not just because it was gonna be a nice spot
to take them, just because people are going to think themselves, well,
this Bucks team is who we thought they were, Right,
they just got rolled by Bownecks and a rookie. When
I mean, you watched a lot of that game. Everything
that could go wrong went wrong for this Bucks team
in that game. Well, the flip side that Eagles team.
They're another team. I don't think we had seen anything
in the history of football. Right. They had two fourth

(17:46):
downs they failed on they had a fumble, they had
a pick in the end zone, they had a blocked punt,
and they still somehow won that game against the Saints.
So I'll give Eagles credit for being incredibly resilient. Right,
they either could be zero for three or right now
or three. You know, they're just like the Chiefs where
people are like, how the hell are the Chiefs three? Know,
And it's just like they're one of those teams that

(18:06):
has that type of Naxie where they just at the
end of games, they don't lose their cool and they
win these games they give. You said about this Eagles
team right now, it's like, you know, they're they're winning games.
I just can't believe they're winning. And I think you
said it last show, right, it was like a miracle.
But I viewed it as just a very resilient team
who they're losing pieces, but they're figuring it out. And
I think the same with this Bucks team where everything

(18:27):
went wrong in that game. And I do agree with
you that like having those pieces missing, it's a huge deal.
Like this Eagles team will be able to ball control
by running the ball with Saquon, but on the flip side,
Slay might miss this game as well for this Eagles team.
So now you have a very young secondary going up
against Godwin Mike Evans and you know, a passing offense
that can move the ball downfield. So I think that's

(18:48):
why the professionals are coming on this Bucks team. Where
this number should be closer to one, maybe a pick.
Now it's up to two and a half. I mean
you talk on timeol Key number that is, well, we'll
grab that number and then I open up the action
now and it's basically all the money. All the tickets
right now early are on the Eagles side. So it's like,
maybe this goes up to three. But I know the
professionals are coming on this Bucks team. It's just a

(19:09):
nice spot to take them after that loss. And this
Eagles team, I do think they're good. But like you
just said, all those injuries at one point, did that
come back around? Like I just I don't see how
they're going to move the ball with third fourth string
receivers where they've already been struggling moving the ball. Not
moving the ball, I should say, but finishing these drives. Right,
They're a team that they're like one for five or

(19:30):
two for six on fourth downs this season. And I
think he's up to two or three red zone turnovers now,
Jalen Hurts. So as good as the Egles have looked
and B two and one, there's a lot of bad
this team has produced.

Speaker 1 (19:44):
Is this a game we're putting on our list. Like,
to me, we're not putting Denver and the Jets on
there right now.

Speaker 3 (19:53):
I definitely bet it like Tampa's on one of my five.

Speaker 1 (19:55):
It is all right, but it's not, as Simon says.
It's certainly out an execut decision.

Speaker 3 (20:01):
You know what Simons is going to be. It's coming up.
It's coming up, all right, all right.

Speaker 1 (20:06):
I put Tampa on the list so far, Tampa is
the first game on the list. I think there are
a lot of games that are going to end up
on this list. When I was going through here, I
already had three or four.

Speaker 3 (20:14):
Yeah, there's some good home dogs this week.

Speaker 1 (20:17):
La Rams at Chicago's Look. This opened at one. I
loved it at one. I did bet it at two
and a half because, like as soon as our show
is over on Sunday night, sometimes I just shook the
computer down and go downstairs and then cry into a pillow.

Speaker 3 (20:32):
You two and one. At that point, I'm shocked you
didn't bet this. Lives are good. I bet it's a call.
That was a good call.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
It was a good call by me. Yeah, I bet
it at two and a half. It touched three for
a minute, went back down to two and a half.
The wise guy's betted again, so now it's just sitting
at three. Look, the Rams needed a perfect four minutes
and fifty seven seconds to beat the Niners.

Speaker 2 (20:54):
They had no joke.

Speaker 1 (20:56):
According to ESPN's expected win percentage, a five percent chance
to win that game, and everything went right.

Speaker 5 (21:06):
He boldly blended the varied talents of his teammates like
a skilled conductor. He directed them in a classic two
minute drill.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Jordan Mason had just converted a second and one. The
Niners were up twenty four to seventeen. After that, the
Niners had a penalty, couldn't advance the ball, missed a
fifty five.

Speaker 2 (21:30):
Yard field goal.

Speaker 1 (21:31):
They then gave up a touchdown in three plays, couldn't
advance the ball again, gave up a thirty eight yard
punt return, committed three penalties in one play, including a
twenty eight yard pass interference, and allowed the game winning kick.
That is as lucky as you can get in the
exact environment you want to get lucky, which is at
home against your biggest rival as a huge underdog, with

(21:55):
so much of your roster injured, including your two top receivers,
most of your offensive line, your defense still figuring out
who they are, and if we talked about a Sunday night,
the Bears were only down seventy three at the end
of the third or Indie score a touchdown with thirty
seconds left in the third quarter, they were down fourteen
to nine late in the fourth, like they were the

(22:15):
comedy of errors for an entire game that the Niners
were for those last five minutes. Like you have to
expect the bears luck to improve and the Rams to regress,
and the Bears to be in a better spot with
a very good pass rush against an offensive line that

(22:36):
I still think is seriously in trouble.

Speaker 3 (22:40):
Yeah, And we got an early sharp call about this
pick from Marcella The Night Show, and a guy was
saying to me, you guys are pretty confident that Chicago's pick,
And I said yeah, And obviously we looked smart because
the number move the way we talked about it. But
his view of it was, you're getting McVeigh and Stafford
against a rookie couart back and a coach that he

(23:00):
thinks is an idiot and evil flew. So I get
where he's coming from, Chad, but me and you have
to look past that sometimes and kind of play the
situation and the number and the matchup, and I agree
with you. I like this matchup for this Bears team.
Now the fear is will Williams make the throws because
they had a couple throws in that game against the
Colts where it's like, this is why you're the number
one pick, Like you have so much talent, there's so

(23:23):
much there but me, and you question your OC and
for good reason. It's just like in consistency, the play
calling sometimes is just so terrible. So I get people's
pushback and hesitation, but two and a half is still
under three. It's such a nice number, Like I could
see this being one of the favorites we do take
this week. Matchup wise, that ram secondary, they made Kyler

(23:43):
Murray look like a Hall of Fame and then last
week Brock Purdy had an incredible game as well. He
was not the reason they lost that game. If you
go looking at his stats, he played really well at
three four three j yards. I think you had three touchdowns,
Auto Jennings. You know there's gonna be plays to be had,
especially with DJ Moore on a donze, Like it looked
like you really started figuring it out last week I
gaest that Colt's team about running those patterns and how

(24:04):
to get open, and there's just a lot I just
a lot I like right now for this Bears team.
And I'm trying not to let you influence me with
your love for it as well, because you know, these
early lines we get on it, like I already bet
them a minus one. I still like the value, Like
Chad just said it, this number, But at what point
does that change?

Speaker 5 (24:21):
Right?

Speaker 3 (24:21):
If this does get to three and a half in
our contest, No, me and Chat would not be taking
that number putting the contest. So two and a half
I like it with you. Once across is that three
and we start getting up there as a week goes
along here, because you know, I do think hopefully the
public will come in on this Rams team, so maybe
we get a better number here. But two and a
half I'm still comfortable with taking that with this Bear's team, Simon, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (24:46):
Not even already incompetent Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can
keep me from making this my executive decision, exact decision.

Speaker 4 (25:02):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 3 (25:06):
Are you have your honors?

Speaker 4 (25:07):
Text?

Speaker 3 (25:07):
Acute executive decision.

Speaker 2 (25:11):
There we go.

Speaker 1 (25:12):
I'm doing it. I love the Bears GM. I love
the maneuvering he's done to get the Bear's talent, to
get the Bears draft picks the last couple of years.
You get a little bit lucky, but you put yourself
in a position to be lucky by doing.

Speaker 2 (25:27):
What he did.

Speaker 1 (25:29):
Why this team did not get rid of Iberflus. Why
this team brought in Shane Waldron, who, like even the
Seahawks receivers last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba, was so
glad to get rid of this guy. Like couldn't fake
how much he thought it was an upgrade to get
rid of Shane Waldron. There's so many great minds out there.

(25:54):
Why did they end up with a middling offensive coordinator
and a middling record as an offensive coordinator. It doesn't
make any sense to me. New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta
is a one and a half point favorite. This almost
feels like a game we have to bet you, yes,
but I don't want to know you well. I think

(26:15):
I know what we have to do. I don't know
if you know what I think we we have to
do because I haven't been impresed with with the Falcons defense,
especially in the red zone, like they did a number
on the.

Speaker 2 (26:24):
Eagles and the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (26:25):
Their coverage is top ten in the league. Okay, but
it's very hard to go back to.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
The well on Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (26:33):
We don't know the status of Drew Dolman and Kaylin McGarry,
which is the whole reason we liked them against the Chiefs.
Their ability to block and create holes for Bijon against
a Chiefs run defense that is just not very good.
And then we saw how much their absence mattered in
the rest of the game. Saints pass rush was mediocre.

(26:55):
Falcons is non existent. Saints coverage is top five Pro
Football Focus. Falcons may not be able to get to
run the ball.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
And then there's this.

Speaker 1 (27:09):
Home division favorites forty five percent against the spread since
two thousand and fifteen, three games like that this week
short home division favorite of three points or less last
twenty years, also forty five percent against the spread, forty

(27:30):
one percent since twenty twenty. I know what you want
to say, Go ahead and say it.

Speaker 3 (27:37):
But no, you're right talking about the offensive line with Atlanta.
Like to me, they're up fourteen seven. Both those guys
went out and I literally said that. The guy I
was with, I was like, there's no way we're going
to win this bet now now, like that.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Impacted the end of the game, like they couldn't run
the ball, like they couldn't make the right decision.

Speaker 3 (27:54):
The refs did fuckus though, that Ballshipman on the one,
we should have a walk in touchdown and then that's right,
Mahomes is going to drive the field to get a
field goal, and that's how that game was going to end.
You know, just that was just this season, that was
by far our worst bet loss, Like that was one.
I don't know if Nick gave you the numbers yet
we covered that like seventy percent of the time, Like
that was that was the right side. So that's always

(28:15):
brutal and you lose those type of bets.

Speaker 1 (28:17):
But I do think though, on the next drive after that,
when we got screwed by the ref on that Kyle
Pitts play in the back of the end zone.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
They gave him three makeup balls in a row.

Speaker 1 (28:27):
Yes, they gave us three makeup like every time they
threw the flag. I'm like, oh, that's a makeup call.

Speaker 3 (28:31):
Oh not good enough. I was like, it's already over.
I just knew no matter what, we weren't going to
get there. But in this matchup you nailed it. Though.
I feel like you talked about like the secondary of
this Atlanta team is a strength, and you basically saw
the blueprint the Eagles have given out here. Eagles do not,
I think we can both agree, do not have good
edge rushers, like I would say the Falcons might be

(28:53):
even better with pass rushers on the edge, Like our
best maats rush on the Egles right now is Brandon Graham,
who's like thirty six years old. It is you know
what they did. They held the edge that's all you
have to do against the Saints apparently, and forced Kamara
back inside and they struggle. So that's I don't think
it's gonnae that hard for this Falcons team to take
that film. Egles just laid out there and set the edge. Now,

(29:13):
obviously they don't have their own Jalen Card in the middle,
but they do have pieces around it they can make
it work. So I had this number of minus three
and a half before all the injuries to the O line.
Now it's down to minus three. So I'm still getting
some good value on this Atlanta team. But I get
where your hesitation is. Like, to me, this was gonna
be automatic one of our five. Now that both these

(29:35):
guys might be out, that's a big deal. And now
on the flip side, the all pro center for the
Saints is going to be out. So it's like, you know,
as bad as it is for the Falcons, it's not
that much better for this Saints team, Like that was
really their anchor to that team that you know, they
have their own questions marked up front on that offensive line.
So yeah, Chad, I get where you're coming from. Like
those those stats do scare me a little bit that

(29:57):
this probably isn't the best spot to take these home FAI,
But I do like it, Landing Or I do think
the number reflects us getting some value. So maybe by
Thursday I'll get you to force this one in, But
for right now, I get your hesitation. With all the
unknown injuries to this Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (30:11):
Team, Yeah, it's just weird to me that your number
only moved half a point off of these two guys
who might be the two best players at their position
in the league and are the main reason why the
Falcons are able to move the ball like their offense
only works with play action, and the play action only
works if people believe they can run the ball, and

(30:32):
no one believes they can run the ball when these
guys aren't playing. That right side of their offensive line
is the most dominant right side, including the center, in
the league. That has been the case for the past
two years.

Speaker 3 (30:44):
It is a big deal, but it's really to move
the number man, you got to be either the quarterback
or like one of the most important all pros. Again,
moving by half a point, I don't know. That just
sound like much to you, but that's that's a lot
of respect for these alignments. So like that Eagles losing
lanes and he argued he's one of the best tackles
on all football. I didn't even move at all for him.

(31:05):
And it's just that's just because I believe the guys
they brought in. I mean, you saw Saquon's huge run
was after they already brought him the backup. So it's like,
you know, it is a big deal with some teams,
but other teams, You're right, it's like it's probably a
bigger deal to Lanta. Maybe I'm underrating a little bit,
but even I move it a full point, it's still
two and a half, So it's like, Okay, we're still
getting a full point a value a on this Atlanta team.

(31:25):
But yeah, it's just really about the matchups in the trenches.
I get the hesitation here just because of these injuries,
but I still think it favors this Atlanta team overall.

Speaker 1 (31:35):
This is what raises an interesting question. The value is
probably on Atlanta. I think the Saints got a little
bit exposed against the Eagles. The trends favor backing the Saints,
So then it comes down to the players on the field,

(31:58):
and like, there's so many injuries here that could.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
Shape this in a way that could go either way.

Speaker 1 (32:06):
Right, you got to think that maybe the Falcon staff
is going to be able to make more adjustments obviously
through the course of a week of practice than they
could do from the second quarter to the end of
the game.

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Very tricky, very very tricky.

Speaker 1 (32:24):
I'm curious I'm gonna put this on the list. I
don't know that we're gonna want to bet multiple short
home favorites, So it'll be curious to me, Like, are
the Bears a short home favorite?

Speaker 3 (32:36):
We like?

Speaker 2 (32:36):
Are the Falcons a short home favorite?

Speaker 3 (32:38):
Like?

Speaker 1 (32:38):
Is there going to be somebody else we'll have to
wait and see. We'll see as we get closer. I
do want to mention Simon, as I've said at the
top of the show, for all of our episodes, we're
coming to you live from our Tommy John home studios.

Speaker 2 (32:54):
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Speaker 1 (32:58):
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(33:20):
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(33:46):
Jags at Houston Houston is now a six and a
half point favorite. This line has moved two full points
in the past fourteen hours since.

Speaker 2 (33:57):
The game ended.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
The trends tell you to bet the Jags here our eyes,
tell us pass or bet the Texans. And I know
we're not putting a six and a half point division
home favorite in the contest, No we can't.

Speaker 3 (34:16):
But you're right, it's like there is nothing, nothing that
build off to want to bet this Jaguars team, even
if the trends the numbers point to it. It just
feels all bad right now for them. And you know
we try to give them benefit of doubt, and that
team showed zero life defensively then offensively, I mean Trevor Lawrence,

(34:36):
that picky through, that's I mean, you just don't see
that in the pros, right yeah, maybe from our first
or second year starter, but it's like you're overthrowing a
guy who's wide open, high to the to the edge
to where the safety is. It's like, man, it's so bad.
I told you, like, what was that last week or
two weeks ago. He's definitely one of my bigger misses

(34:59):
on guys I probably could come out of college. It's
just he was so great for Clemson and played so
well against great defenses in college, like showed up in
big moments in big games, and you know we gave
him the benefit of the doubt because of urban and
we're like, Okay, you know, Doug will come in, he'll
fix this. I mean the weapons they have to offensively,
these are some of the best weapons he's ever played

(35:19):
with and it's just not working. So I got no
read on this one. Like I'm with you, I want
to take the Jaguars in this spot, but it's like,
who's betting them? Why can we? Why can this not
get the seven? Maybe that's what will happen this and
maybe that's more coming on, but right now it's six.
Even if it was six and a half, I have
no interest back in this Jaguars team and Houston. You

(35:42):
just said it's it's too big of a number for
us to feel comfortable taking them at this number. So
this is the game I'll just pass on for now.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
Yeah, total pass.

Speaker 1 (35:49):
It's astonishing to me in the same way that the
Bears went out and kept the refluse and signed Shane
Waldren and are essentially giving up on a year development
for Caleb Williams. How did the Jags end up going
all in with one hundred and fifty million for Trevor Lawrence? Like,

(36:10):
were they not watching the same games we were? It's
always fascinating to me when coaches come in, they're like,
we like what we saw on tape. We think this
is the right guy, and it's never translating to the field,
Like he has taken so many steps back with a
guy we all expected to help him take the ultimate

(36:31):
lea forward because of how good Doug Peterson had been
as an offensive coach, Like from your perspective, as a
guy who watched so much Doug Peterson, who's played pool
with Doug Peterson? True, is he doing something differently? Is
he calling the games differently? Is he coaching differently? Is
there is it just a general mismatch.

Speaker 3 (36:53):
I think, well, first of all, I'll say this for them,
and I'll give them better that. Ready, they had the
number one pick. They took a guy who there's a
Camus prospect. Everyone told him that, and then you know,
three years later he won that division and in their
mind it was like, Okay, this guy is ascending, he's
getting better, right, and then last year he had that
injury and we kind of put all that blame on that.

(37:14):
Midway through the year, he talked about they were the
number one seed at eight and three halfway through the year.
Last year, and then it all went downhill. I get
why they paid him because in this league, it's just
like the same thing with Miami into it. It's like
you just saw what Miami looks like without Tua. That's
why you pay to it. It's like, not all of
us are going to get the mahomes of Josh Allens.
A lot of us are going to deal with the

(37:34):
slop and the shit in the middle and just trying
to make the best out of it. And that's what
Trevor is apparently. Like I thought Trevor would have said
to be a top ten guy. I mean, me and
you talked about we felt a little guilty because we
didn't put on our top ten list. I don't feel
guilty at all. It's like I don't know if to
make this guy mix my top fifteen. He just, like
you said, he does not look right. So you know,

(37:55):
Doug Peterson, he might not survive this, but I don't
think he'll mind it either, Like he looks like he
doesn't have confidence in him either, especially with some of
the play calling they're doing, not just yesterday but in
Cleveland as well. So it's the vibes have to be
at the lowest of any team right now. For that
Jacksonville team.

Speaker 1 (38:14):
Doug Peterson might be like, fuck this noise, I'm going
back to the shore, right you know.

Speaker 3 (38:20):
I'm gonna go back to filling for free again for
the rest of my life.

Speaker 2 (38:23):
I don't need this, just not worth it.

Speaker 1 (38:26):
Minnesota at green Bay, green Bay two and a half
point favorite. This was a game that we pegged on
Sunday night. Green Bay was at two. It's two and
a half now, it's heavily juiced to two and a half,
so I would expect that that very soon it's moving
to three. I'm I'm split on this game. It feels

(38:49):
like the right time to fade both of these teams,
you know, with like obviously, with the way Minnesota has
been playing and the way the Packers have been playing,
the trends Tate, you kind of gotta favor the Vikings
here just as the home as the short dog. You
don't want to bet the short home favorite in a

(39:10):
division spot. Great coaching matchup, great coaching matchup. And know
how much you love Flora Is You know how much
I love the floor. What are we doing here?

Speaker 3 (39:23):
Yeah? And I saw some great news this morning that
Sam Darnold says only as a bone bruise, So it
seems like his MRI came out all good, and it's like, okay,
now we can really talk and bet this game, because
me and you our first law was, well, we'll take
this number here just in case he's banged up and
Jordan Love's coming back. We have a great number here.
And you know, just looking at the action app, it
says all the money right now is on Green Bay

(39:45):
and all the tickets are on the Vikings, So right
now this is a pros versus Joe's games. Probably clearly
loves the Vikings, and it's like, fuck, I kind of
like the Vikings too, man, It's like I like them
in the spot in the sense of, you know, if
this gets up to three, that was that would be
a nice spot to take this Minnesota team. And Chad
just gave us the stats about these divisional games, you

(40:06):
kind of want to favor the road dogs historically that's
the spit you want to be. But it's also you know,
Jordan Love coming back in not that he's gonna be rusty,
but it's like it's not gonna be the Jordan Love
we're used to, the one we saw against the Eagles,
which is he's very comfortable moving, running around the pocket,
getting outside the pocket. You have to have some type

(40:26):
of lingering issue with the knee, right, I mean, he's
it's supposed to be a four week injury. This is
week three. I get getting him back. I'd get him
back to for this important divisional game. But it's like
we're not gonna just sit here and act like it's
gonna be all good. And you know Brian Flores, we
talked about his exotic blitz packages. It's been incredible to watch,
Like every week a different guy is to start for

(40:46):
this Vikings defense, and I see no beting different here.
It's like he knows that they're gonna be hampered, and
he knows that they're gonna want to run the ball
as well. So, like you said, this is a game
where maybe I'll just keep that two that you know,
minus two bed on Green Bank watch this one, but
keep by on it. If it does get up the
plus three three and a half, come back in and
take the Vikings because I do like that side, but

(41:08):
you nailed it. It's like I'm too split as well
in this one right now to really make a definitive
decision not really make a bet on this one right.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Now, Brian Flores has not just befuddled with the blitz
like he's made CJ. Stroud and brock Purty look very
confused with non blitz schemes and put them in really
bad spots throwing along.

Speaker 3 (41:34):
So they do that crowd the line. Look right where
they have all seven guys up on the line, and
you said it only three guys.

Speaker 2 (41:40):
Might rush right and then they drop back.

Speaker 3 (41:41):
It's like, so, no, he's been really great with it.

Speaker 1 (41:44):
He has been brilliant. So there's all the stats about
the favorites in the division three points or less forty
five percent the past twenty years, forty one since twenty two.
Obviously that favors betting Minnesota. I feel like we want
to wait. Like, from a contest point of view, the

(42:06):
challenge is it's going to be a two and a
half in the contest, right, This isn't going to get
to three and a half in the contest, So.

Speaker 3 (42:12):
You might want to see ridin Love's officially clear this
could jump a point, all right. Green Bay is really good.
I mean we already talked about how good they are,
Like we're more believers in them than we are the
Vikings going forward. So it's like, I get why it's
I mean, they just look like the more complete team,
and we you know, we're a little biased here, but
we obviously trust Jordan Love more than we do Sam Darnold.

Speaker 1 (42:32):
Teams undefeated straight up and against the spread, forty three
percent against the spread since twenty seventeen and by the way,
eleven and four against the spread in Week four.

Speaker 2 (42:49):
Green Bay Packers fit that bill.

Speaker 3 (42:53):
I like that.

Speaker 1 (42:53):
All right, here we go. I think I think this
is going to be a special one.

Speaker 2 (42:59):
Pit at Indy. It opened it one and.

Speaker 1 (43:01):
A half, it moved due to two, the juice is
favoring a moved back to one and a half.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
Simon, what say you?

Speaker 3 (43:13):
Let's set up Chad. Simon says, grab the plus two people.
When Simon says do.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
It, we do, Sion say, Indie plus two.

Speaker 5 (43:22):
You know what.

Speaker 1 (43:22):
I didn't even realize this was going to be it
until I saw it. I looked at it, I'm like, oh, yeah.

Speaker 3 (43:27):
Yeah, you know. I love this one. I love this
matchup for this Colts team. And eventually there's gonna be
a point we had to start selling this Pittsburgh team
and you know, I still can't believe I haven't had
them in our contest and they're three and oh straight
up and against the spread. That's another thing we've just
whiffed on. And I try to get you there, and
I got your hesitation with the Chargers. I understood that, like,

(43:48):
you know, that is a pretty good matchup. My viewful
was like, okay, but we're getting a really great defense
against the banged up Herbert And you know, for a
quarter there, I was like, shit, Chad was right like
that Chargers team they came out to play, and then
as the game went along, you just saw that's Pittsburgh team.
Once they get a lead on you, that's when they dominate.
Like that's when this defense can get the pass rushers running.
And I just look at this Colts team that they

(44:11):
have the guys up front that are gonna give Pittsburgh
a problem this season. Right, they have the right offensive
line and Jonathan Taylor we saw last week a guy
kind of got to Schneid and looked great against the Bears.
I think we're gonna see the dam exact game plan
against the Pittsburgh team. It's just like run it down
their throat, exhaust those guys don't let TJ. Watt ever
get going, and that's how you're gonna beat this team. So,

(44:32):
you know, we talked about selling high on teams, you
gotta sell in Pittsburgh. You're out of your mind if
you're betting Pittsburgh this week, a team that, like we
just said, they're three to zero against the spread. Not
only is it a great match for the Colts, but
this is just like last week right where you know,
there was a couple of sides we were just like,
you got to fade the public here and if you
had done, if you've done just been fading the public

(44:54):
blindly this year, you were up a ton of money.
This fall is right into that category of you know,
in the action app right now, ninety percent of the bets,
eighty five percent of the money is on Pittsburgh. And
it's just like, how stupid can you be? Like to
go heav you on a road road favorite here in
Pittsburgh and Tomlin it's like this is always when they
have those letdown games. So I'm gonna take the plus two.

(45:15):
Like you just said, it looks like it's gonna move
back down a one and a half. We talked at
the time. How key of a number of plus two is.
So I'm gonna grab it now before it does move.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
Yeah, definitely grab the two. I grabbed it right before
we came on the air. Actually, And you talk about
fading the public. Last weekend, Broncos and the Bucks. The
Bucks had almost eighty percent of the tickets. Yeah, you know,
the Rams and the Niners. The Niners had almost eighty

(45:44):
percent of the tickets. The I think it was the
Panthers and the Raiders. Maybe maybe Evan can remind me
there was one other game where all the money was
coming in, all the tickets were coming in on one side,
and look like we we won bets on all those
games and felt really good about it. I wish we
had put him in the contest. You said something that

(46:06):
was really interesting me just now on Sunday. You were
watching the Steelers' Chargers, and the Chargers were playing well,
and it looked like it was going to you know,
they were going to keep it closer, maybe even win.
You're like, God, damn it, Chad was right. I like
the idea that you were thinking about me on Sunday afternoon.

Speaker 3 (46:25):
Well, just because we didn't put in contest. Now, It
was just like, you know, he was right about Pittsburgh,
and maybe I am over hyper him too much, but no,
it came back around that defense man on Pittsburgh. Unbelievable.

Speaker 1 (46:35):
I just like the fact you were thinking about Manday.
That's really all I was thinking about. This year, the
public is seventeen thirty and one against the spread, second
worst the past twenty years. And by the way, don't
forget last year the public actually won against the spread
for the first time in twenty years. So we are
seeing some serious regression. We talk about all this on

(47:00):
It's Me Sunday mornings eleven am, Eastern Action Network YouTube
and in the Action Network app. Okay New England at
San Francisco. This number is I think at ten right now.
The big dogs have been eaten and they have been
barking this year. As I pointed out earlier, thanks to

(47:20):
Evan twelve and one against the spread favorites underdogs of
six or more eight and five straight up, the Patriots
have been one of those teams that has been you know,
covering or winning as huge dogs. Also a team that
didn't cover as a big dog ten and a half.

Speaker 2 (47:41):
Ten.

Speaker 1 (47:43):
I don't know, like, do we hold our nose and
bet this.

Speaker 3 (47:48):
I'm like you, I have no real read on it
because it's like I just want to bet knowing them
based off what's happened this season, all the injuries the
forty nine ers have had, Well we just talked about
perty was literally perfect in that Rams game. So it's like,
you know the way you attack that this this forty
nine ers team. Can we see this team do it
in the you know, New England and can they just

(48:08):
run it down their throats? I don't know. I know
that's what they want to do, but I feel like
that's what the fort Niners are gonna focus on taking
away and making them try to pass with Brissette. So,
you know, the fort Niners just have so many insane injuries.
I think, who was it? I just saw the other
day it was a hard grave someone just got banged
up on their team that might be out for the season.
Who's like, you know, one of their studs in the

(48:29):
detackle position. So no, it's it's the what we expected
from the forty nine ers. I mean, we let the
cent be thrown off us after Week one. They were
so dominant that primetime game. But you just see it
the year after the Super Bowl, it just seems like
things just tend to go wrong and it's just not
the same as it was the year before. So there
are a team that's fighting through adversity right now, and

(48:52):
you know, like you just said, if you can get
the ten and a half, why not just grab it.
But it's just there's no real confidence here for me
on this team where it's like, I don't we thought
Newland was gonna be the worst team coming in this season.
You know, we talked about them in Tennessee and both
those two teams through three weeks, I would say the
pictures have shown me more. So I'm okay with ben it,

(49:12):
but it's just like not that much confidence. I feel
like they've gotten lucky in the games they have covered,
so it's tough for me to really nail this one.

Speaker 1 (49:21):
Javon Hargrave, defensive tackle, tore his tricep he is out
for the season. And look, historically, while we want to say,
like you always want to back these huge favorites, historically,
thanks to Evan, we know that it doesn't exactly line
up that way. Like it's not an automatic. It's a

(49:43):
lot closer to fifty to fifty as a proposition on
a regular basis, So it doesn't make me feel like
I need to run to the counter here.

Speaker 3 (49:51):
No, I mean it is our first double digit dog
and it's week four of the season, so it is tempting.
But there's a reason they're a double digit dog.

Speaker 1 (49:58):
Yeah, here's a really interest game that I had a
stronger opinion on than I thought I would. Arizona is
a three and a half point home favorite against Washington.
This line was five and a half before the game.
Last night's moved two points. I so want to take

(50:24):
the Cardinals.

Speaker 3 (50:25):
Yeah, me too.

Speaker 1 (50:26):
Okay, all right, Like we got a team that has
to go across the country on a short week.

Speaker 3 (50:31):
And now after a huge win, after a.

Speaker 1 (50:33):
Huge win like this feels like where they can take
advantage of a not very good defense that will be
very tired. I always like Look, I love Chris Long's
green Light podcast. It's amazing. People should listen to it
and watch it on YouTube. His insights on the NFL
because of his experience playing. It's always like a little

(50:56):
nugget and I always go back, especially like his shows
after the games on Sunday and Monday. I always go
back to this thing. And we talked about to Chris
about this.

Speaker 2 (51:10):
Even the extra three or four hours.

Speaker 1 (51:11):
Of rest that you need to recover matters on a
Sunday night game, let alone a Monday night game when
you are then traveling back. I think it takes a
lot out of the players, and this isn't a very
good defense to begin with. I want the Cardinals and
I probably want the over. I don't know what the
number is, not sure I care. I like the Cardinals
can't play defense and Washington can't play defense, and they'll

(51:33):
be tired.

Speaker 3 (51:34):
So it is fifteen and a half, which Chad knows.
My view when I see that five to zero, I
hit the under unders the last two years when it's
over fifty, I think they're up to what evan fourteen
and two now after last week, I hit that under
on the Arizona.

Speaker 2 (51:48):
Yeah, Arizona Detroit, And my view of it.

Speaker 3 (51:51):
Was, I thought de Troy's defense is better than people
gave them credit for. And I felt the same for
this Cardinals defense, where it's like, you know, Josh Allen
had to go into hero mode and just just steamrolled
them in that second half. They were just gassed, and
that's really when he dominated them. We've seen two weeks
in a row, right, they played really well against the
Rams and we were like, okay, maybe that's just because injuries.
Follow that up against that Detroit team, that bullshit call

(52:15):
by the refs blowing the whistle and saying it wasn't
a pick six. You know, they should have went into
half and it should either been you know, them up
fourteen to thirteen on the Detroit or whatever, thirteen ten
after they get a field goal when Detroit punted, it
was just the flip side. It was twenty to whatever.
That was twenty to seven at half, and in the

(52:35):
second half, Arizona really dug in and I feel like
Detroit really could not move the ball on them and
they kind of dictated that game. And it's just their
offense really couldn't get anything going. So it's like my
view of it right here is just I just like this.
I like this Cardinals defense, and to me, you know me,
and you have major questions about that Cincinnati's defense, I

(52:56):
don't have the same with this Cardinals team. I can
see them getting us stops where offensively, this is a
perfect matchup for Kyler against this Washington defense. I just
they have no guys up front they can keep up
with his speed, and the secondary they have no one
on the outside that can stop even their tight end.
I think we'll have a great game McBride. So it's
just like, you know, between Marvin McBride and the weapons

(53:17):
and James Connor, it's like, I just love everything about this.
So you can see me each other getting sucked in here.
But for a good reason. We like this Arizona team
that bounce back after that lost to the lines.

Speaker 1 (53:27):
Marvin McBride and Murray. That is the greatest law firm
playing in Glendale right now. Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers,
the line is eight. It went from seven to eight
to seven and a half, now back to eight.

Speaker 2 (53:41):
I don't know who's going to be playing quarterback for
the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (53:44):
But we're betting them.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
Yeah, I mean hundred percent. I just want to make
sure we're on the same page. Then we don't have
to spend too much time on There's a backup quarterback
situation here that we know we like to play the
backup quarterback. We know we want a dog of six
or more. We know Kansas City's offense is not converting
in the red zone. Which makes it harder to cover

(54:05):
a big number. But like, the Chargers will make this
a slow, low scoring game. Give me the Chargers plus eight,
Like almost feels like you got to grab that now
because I don't want it to go back down.

Speaker 3 (54:19):
And four or five years ago, I would have been
fine with Penny this chief this Chiefs team. It's like, well,
they'll get big plays. They'll just outrun these guys and
score high. The new NFL or everyone just keeps everything
in front of you. It's just like all they got
to do is wake this out let Mahomes maybe make
one or two mistakes, which we've seen this year. He
just keeps consistently doing so it's like you just nailed it.

(54:39):
Like this is the perfect hardball game. He's gonna muddy
the water and make this gross and ugly, pull them
down in the mud, and make this a one possession
kind of game. So it's like, all right, we all
agree Herbert is much better than Heinike, but in this
offense this year, when they've not been asking Herbert to
do a ton, I think Heiniger can fill in there.
So you know, I make this seven and a half,

(55:00):
so we're not getting crazy value That's why I don't
know if this will end up being one of our five,
but I do really love the Chargers of the spot
divisional game at plus eight. You know, this is like
you just said, this is such a horrible spot in
game we take this number. So I'm gonna wait and
see what Evan has for trends for this one. But
historically we always like to fade the Chiefs in this spot,
especially you know when Mahomes is above a seven point favorite.

(55:24):
So yeah, it's a it's a number we like.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
Every trend is back and yet including home division dog
in the first four games since twenty ten, sixty one
percent against the spread Cleveland at the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (55:37):
The line is flipped.

Speaker 1 (55:39):
It was Cleveland plus one or Cleveland minus one. Now
it's Las Vegas minus one. So that's one factor to
think about. We normally like to play against the team
that is now the favorite. Like it. There's is there
a QB controversy with the Raiders? You know Antonio Peers

(56:00):
would not commit to Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell.

Speaker 2 (56:04):
As the starter.

Speaker 1 (56:05):
He basically called out DeVante Adams for making business decisions
in the blood against the Panthers The Browns O line
is even more hurt right now. They lost another guard
Wyatt Teller Jedrick Willis, who would come back from a
knee injury, left the game. Basically their entire O line
is a backup right now. Ann Miles Garrett basically saying

(56:29):
he's playing on bad feet. They need surgery, but he's
gonna gut it out for the season.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
Can we just pass? You feel like you have a
huge opinion here.

Speaker 3 (56:40):
Yeah, it's gotta be the Raiders, right, I mean, what
have you seen from Watson at all to give you
any type of confidence. So I understand why people are
coming on our side. They're just thinking, well, this Raiders team,
it's all bad. The vibes are bad. This team's not
that good. They have Minshew quarterback and they're just terrible.
They got embarrassed by the Panthers team. But I feel like,
Matt Wise, the Panthers were a bad matchup for that

(57:02):
Raiders team, or this is a really good matchup for
this Raiders team. Like this is where they're front Knreek
Havoc and we just saw Watson in every game they've
played this year. He can't stop holding onto the ball.
It's really a major issue where it's like he just
holds Onto as if he's got a clean pocket. When
the whole thing's crashing around him, he just not adjust.
So you know, they just made the Giants look like

(57:24):
world beaters. And you know we can both agree this
Raiders defense is a little bit better than that Giants defense.
And you know, the Giants gave him a free seven
points to start that game, and I think only put
up one more touchdown the rest of the game. This
Browns team like it's just win. Will Watson be bench?
That's the question because that to me, once he does,

(57:44):
I can't wait to come back and bet them right
when Winston is their quarterback wherever it's gonna be. Right now,
I just think it's so bad for them that, you know,
anything under three, I'm gonna take the Raiders here, But
I get your hesitation. It's like, I don't know if
I agree with Antonio Pierce's coaching style, but this this
seems like this is the way he's gonna do it,
where every week he's gonna question dude's manhood and if

(58:06):
they're about it after any time they lose. So you know,
of all the guys, I think it won't phase that much.
I think Minshe's right up there. I don't think they're
really gonna go to eight and O'Connor. I think Minshew's
played well enough. He just had a bad game against Carolina,
so I'm not going to overreact. I'll take them here
against the Cleveland team that you just nail it chat.
They already lost. They just lost another starter from their

(58:26):
offensive line, so I think they're only down to one
starter from the original offensive line, and they already have
two third stringers in there. So it's disaster time right
now for Cleveland.

Speaker 2 (58:37):
Yeah, here's the problem with Simon.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
Forget about the trend, you know, the flipping of the favorite,
which is sixty nine and ninety seven since twenty nineteen
on our list that I'm looking at right now.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
What do we got?

Speaker 1 (58:51):
We got Tampa Bay plus two and a half, but
we still want more intel. We've got a favorite in
the Bears, a favorite in Atlanta. We're hoping it gets
to three with Minnesota. We have one dog in Indie,
a favorite in Arizona, a big dog in the Chargers,
a favorite in the Raiders. Like, what are we doing here?

(59:13):
Why aren't we betting just every underdog. Why don't we
get back to our roots.

Speaker 3 (59:18):
I mean, you just said a bunch of dogs. We
literally just talked about Chargers, Tampa Colts.

Speaker 2 (59:23):
Okay, those are the only.

Speaker 3 (59:24):
Give you a bunch of different options, brother, All right, well,
we're going to get to it.

Speaker 2 (59:27):
That's right, that's right.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
But also I want to remember, like we're getting some
good options here.

Speaker 2 (59:33):
I want to make sure we make.

Speaker 1 (59:34):
The right picks for our five because you know we'd
like to get back into this thing.

Speaker 3 (59:39):
Me too. I mean, no, last week was brual. Like again,
my only two losses were two I put in the contest,
So it's like fucking a man. I just I hate
those type of weeks.

Speaker 2 (59:48):
It's the worst.

Speaker 3 (59:49):
It's the worst.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
Buffalo at Baltimore. I mean, I feel bad for everybody
listening to the audio version because user Matt Mitchell is
going to go crazy with buffalo drops.

Speaker 3 (01:00:00):
Let's go Mat. Yeah, this might be to our podcast,
who's got an hour and a half of just drops.

Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
That Mitchell is telling us to hurry up only because
he wants more room Buffalo bills drops.

Speaker 4 (01:00:11):
Yeah, normally I would say you're wildly off base, and
that kind of behavior is incredibly indulgent and unprofessional, but
not today.

Speaker 3 (01:00:20):
Go Bills. From the opening drive, the Bills were unstoppable.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
Josh Allen now the odds on favorite to be the
m v P and he kind.

Speaker 2 (01:00:28):
Of a deserved well well deserved.

Speaker 3 (01:00:31):
Did you say, Josh Allen? That calls for the first
Josh Allen Alarm of the season. Alert here for Josh Allen. Look,
he's a.

Speaker 4 (01:00:43):
Lun He's a football player through and through, but does
not and Therey go drums an excuse me touchdown?

Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
there's no fears.

Speaker 5 (01:01:00):
No way.

Speaker 3 (01:01:16):
The demands to do something about this album rageous.

Speaker 5 (01:01:19):
Man, big louder and Louder.

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
I don't have strong opinions about this game.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
Yeah, And all I could think of watching that game
with the Jaguars is it must be torturous to be
a Bills fan. I mean, is there a September? You
guys don't win, always so dominant September. Once it gets cold,
that's when it starts getting bad. So Bill's fans enjoy this.
This is your guys, super Bowl September. You guys are
always so good and the.

Speaker 4 (01:01:44):
Road to the Super Bowl goes through Orchard Park.

Speaker 3 (01:01:47):
New York. I don't know what to do. I want
to take the Bills. Like after watching that game, I
can't stand standing in front of him once again, Josh Allen,
like he is just man, is he firing right now?
That offense? Like you know Joe Bray no joke. Yeah,
it's like he just keeps you off bound. I just
love the way he's everything he's doing, the way he's
using cooks out the back. You know, these nameless receivers

(01:02:11):
are now it's starting to become named because we're like, Okay,
this guy's scoring touchdowns every week. I can't believe it.
I can't believe how good this Bills team is. Like
I thought. You know, we talked about it coming the season.
You know, the over under was ten. I intererstad a
lot of people, a lot of professionals taking it under,
and I said, I couldn't do it. I can't go
under on the ten. It's nowhere near one of my
bigger bets because it was just like I had no

(01:02:31):
real read on this team. Now looking at it, it's
just like you just can't doubt these great quarterbacks. And
we said it coming the year. It's like he's still
our number two quarterback, Josh Allen, even though he's playing
it as the best quarterback in the league. It's just like, man,
it's hard to bet against. It's hard to doubt him.
So I already bet the Ravens of minus two and
a half. I'll hold onto that ticket, but I don't

(01:02:53):
have confidence in it right now. It's just whatever, whatever
I want to say, good about this Lamar offense. Their defense, man,
like your hesitation for last week. Now I want to
take them right yeah, this this Ravens team, because it's like,
what is their identity on defense? I still don't know
what that is. I mean, Josh Allen, the way he's playing,
he's gonna have a field day against this defense in Baltimore.

(01:03:13):
So the better in me wants to just completely fade
this this Bills team. But I think we might have
to wait a couple weeks until Josh Allen cools down,
because right now, he's by far the best player in football.

Speaker 1 (01:03:26):
Well, look, you saw it a million times last night.
The second he drops back and sees a little bit
of an opening in the defensive line, he runs for
fifteen yards. And he could do that against the Ravens
the whole freaking game like that's they don't have enough
of an identity on defense right now to be able

(01:03:47):
to stop that.

Speaker 2 (01:03:49):
But I still like the Ravens in this game. I
like the spot.

Speaker 1 (01:03:53):
It's not a contest play for me. It's not going
to be a huge bet. It's a definitely a.

Speaker 3 (01:03:58):
Children taking another home favorite. Unbelievable.

Speaker 1 (01:04:01):
I know, right, I know, Tennessee at Miami, this thing's
freaking chaos. Like it opened at Miami two and a half.
Now it's Miami plus one. More injuries to the offensive line.
We don't know who the heck is going to be
playing quarterbacks. Skyler Thompson is kind of day to day
at this point. Tennessee we're knocking to back because we
can't entrust our money.

Speaker 2 (01:04:22):
Or our picks to Will Levis.

Speaker 1 (01:04:25):
Monday Night Football. It's not the game that we're going
to watch. There's two games Monday Night Football next week.
This will be the game that does not get make
a split screen.

Speaker 3 (01:04:35):
I know it feels like we're supposed to take Tennessee
with Chads, right. I don't want I don't want to
bet this or have to watch this game. I'm looking
forward to betting this other game on watching it, So
let's just go the next game.

Speaker 1 (01:04:45):
Speaking of home favorites, I.

Speaker 2 (01:04:49):
Freaking love the Lions here, what do you really? Yeah?
I do.

Speaker 1 (01:04:53):
And it's actually before he even started doing the research
on it, it just felt like the right side, they're
the luck rankings favorite, they're the unlucky side in our
luck rankings matchup. Look at Seattle. Their defense is amazing
and like they're ranked number one in the league according
to a lot of different.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
Metrics from Pro Football Focus.

Speaker 1 (01:05:13):
But and the line has moved from five and a
half to four and a half to four. Like your
reaction to me is what the wise guys are doing,
which is betting Seattle. Are they overvalued because they're undefeated?
They've played a rookie QB in Bonnicks, a washed QB
in Jacoby Brissett, a backup QB in Skyler Thompson, And
don't forget like the Broncos and the Patriots were very

(01:05:37):
competitive games, like is their defense good enough to make
Jared Goff continue to look bad? Like do we think
Detroit is just going to get physical? And as they
had started to do against the Cardinals, Like they beat
a tough team on the road as a favorite in

(01:05:58):
a spot they had to win. It feels like at
this point at four, I didn't feel this way at
five and a half. At four, the value was on Detroit.

Speaker 3 (01:06:08):
On the other side, unfortunately. Yeah. I like the Seahawks.
I just you talked about the golf though, man, and
it's like, Okay, he played against Arizona, Tampa and the Rams.
Against the Rams, he only completed eighteen passes and he
had a pick on a sacked twice. Against Tampa, he
did well, right, He threw for over three dred yards,
zero touchdowns, two interceptions. He actually didn't get sacked. I

(01:06:31):
think it's Arizona, you know, he just once again he
didn't do much. He had two touchdowns, which is like, okay, great,
and he had an interception in a sack where it's like,
you know, with all the weapons they have, he should
be doing more. That's my fear of him right now.
It's just like something seems off with him. Were on
the flip side, the Seahawks. You just said, they've played
three bad teams. Two of those bad teams they beat

(01:06:53):
up on a little bit, right, like the kind of
day what they were supposed to and the Patriots game
was much closer than they probably anticipated. So I'm right
there with you. It was like, there's hesitation for me
on Seattle, but I still have a lot of questions
about this Detroit team. You know, there's ways that they
can use. Seattle can use their offense to really attack

(01:07:15):
this Detroit team. Second, there we saw when they play
against teams that can move the ball, there are ways
to get around it. So you're asking why this numbers
come down. I think that's just the pros are kind
of the same view of me, where it's like I
make this three and a half, I'll take the four.
Plenty of books have already moved to three and a
half on this number, So it's like, clearly professionalay is
gonna keep coming in here, but I'll grab the four now.

(01:07:36):
But hope that layers will be goes along, that more
money will come on Detroit, because you're right, Detroit, they're
the better offense, they have the better coaching staff, they
have the better defense, Like they should roll this team.
I'm just I'm not so confident in this in the
golf right now. It's just something seems a little off
about him. He doesn't seem like he was well last year,
which was like he's playing at MVP level, or this

(01:07:57):
year he doesn't seem like he's in rhythm. Neither does
the Detroit All Funds.

Speaker 1 (01:08:02):
That's a fascinating game. I mean, we're gonna have to
ask ourselves, do we just fade the public this week?
Do we just bet well.

Speaker 3 (01:08:10):
It's gonna go on the other way eventually. That's why
it's like, we we don't ever blindly just fade the
public here. As much as people are like, that's all
these guys do. They mean, chat would be fucking fifteen
to oh this year if we just blindly did that, which.

Speaker 2 (01:08:21):
Well we're fifteen.

Speaker 3 (01:08:23):
Yeah, but it's something we do take an account where
it's like, you know, it is a little scary when
you're on the public side, and that's why we always
want to mention that when we're talking about these lines.
So I have no doubt that trouble will be the
public side in this right. They just covered last week,
So it's like, yeah, people are gonna be feeling pretty
good about them. They feel like they're back where I'm
still a little hesitant about Golf. I just don't think

(01:08:44):
he's looked right this year.

Speaker 2 (01:08:47):
Do we fade the public?

Speaker 1 (01:08:48):
Do we just bet the massive dogs of six or
more straight up and let it ride on a money
line parlay? Who knows, Simon, But all right, we've got
a list here some of the the early bests that
we've talked about. Tampa Bay plus two and a half, Chicago,
if you can get the two and a half, Atlanta
minus one and a half, we're waiting on. We want

(01:09:09):
to get a little more intel on what the roster
is going to look like.

Speaker 2 (01:09:14):
Minnesota.

Speaker 1 (01:09:16):
If we can get it at three, we're waiting for
the contest. Maybe money will come in if we get
more about Jordan Love definitely, Simon says, Colts plus two,
Arizona minus three and a half, Chargers plus eight.

Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
We're going to bet that.

Speaker 1 (01:09:36):
The Raiders minus one. I hate it, and then Simon
and I are split on Seattle Detroit, but you could
like because of our because of the way things have
gone for us this year and betting so many home favorites,
you could easily persuade me on Seattle. As a reminder,
the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

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and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two
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(01:10:39):
next episode of The Faves on the Action Network YouTube
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contest Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com, download us from Spotify,
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