Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
We've made it to October, folks. Today is our Tuesday
Week five episode. We're going to break down the entire
slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exec decision and
(00:31):
our as Simon says, we'll start to narrow down the
options for five faves to put in the Favorites podcast
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick contest. We went
four and one this past week, which means we did
not get any emails from any listeners who were worried.
I was basically on suicide watch after going one and
(00:54):
four the week before. We are happy, We're proud one
of us. One of us felt so relaxed after the
podcast on Sunday night. He might have said to his wife, Hey,
let's watch that new Kristen Bell sitcom on Netflix instead
(01:15):
of watching Sunday night football.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Jeez.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
And for the other one, he just went back to
doing his job. I am live from our Tommy John
Holmes Studios and I'm joined as always buy my co host,
my companion Mike Compadre might BFF professional better sim In
Hunter Hello, so I.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Am in Hello, Chad off the top, we would be
messing up. We didn't talk about rested peace to our
legend Pete Rose, everyone knows passed away. This is a
gambling show. I know, we don't want to talk about
a lot of the real world stuff, but me and
Chatta both are namored with Pete Rose. We had a
writer on in the off season with a book written
(01:57):
about him, and yeah, I just wanted to bring it up,
get to say a little love and just you know
it's me and you think we both agree he probably
just because of the legalization of sports betting, should have
got into the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
So a little bittersweet day.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Now they're here in October and playoff baseball this year
and the Philadelphia legend, Read's legend, Pete Rose has passed on.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Yeah, look, it's it's so interesting, right. We did have
a writer on during the spring talking about talking about
the book, Keith O'Brien who's written a bunch for the Atlantic,
and I thought the book was really good, and I
thought he was a great guest, and he had great
stuff in there. And one of the stories he told
was about how this was so well known what Pete
(02:43):
Rose was doing that they referred to the guys he
was hanging out with in the locker room Sparky Anderson,
the Reds manager at the time. They would joke about
the gamblers that were hanging out with Pete Rose in
the locker room, as if it was nothing right. And
then all of a sudden, and this was great context
(03:04):
for today because Keith came on and his book came
out right when the Otani interpreter scandal happened, and.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
And Thenani goes up and puts out the greatest baseball
season we've ever seen.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
So thanks didn't.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Right, But in that moment, like the contrast between it
was totally illegal, but everybody who Pete Rose hung out with,
who were his runners, basically the people he gambled with
all hung out in the locker room and everybody knew,
and now it's totally illegal. And the contrast of Otani
being connected to this guy and this being a scandal
(03:40):
that could potentially bring down baseball right now when it
happened was fascinating. Yeah, and Pete Rose was sort of
the first Domino in all of these conversations. Complicated guy, uh,
not just the gambling scandals, but scandals, personal scandals, domesstic scandals.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Then again, one of the greatest baseball players who ever played.
And that's why it's so hard when you're a fan
to separate the people from the performance. It really is.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
And now, oh, as always, athletes are not role.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Models, not role models, not at all so true. I'm
rip Pete Rose. Listen. In a moment, We're going to
recap the results of week five in our contest, announce
the winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If
you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the
free Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
(04:41):
Pick Them contest presented by Bet three sixty five. Visit
Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder, the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now
new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
in bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up
using promo code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place a
(05:01):
bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
ordinary at bet three six five must be twenty one
or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, eighteen and older.
(05:21):
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler one
eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioning restrictions apply
all right, easier week In the contest, six percent of
participants win five and oh congrats to Week four first
place winner Angelou's Bird. Angelou went five to zero in
the contest and missed the tie breaker by twenty five yards.
(05:41):
As always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's
Cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last
in the contest.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Have you heard.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
About the lordsome lose? He's a Louisa, but he still
keeps on tide.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to Ka Simoto, who went
on five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred and
thirty six yards. Ka please email Matt at podcasts at
actionetwork dot com to claim your prize. All right, last
bit of housekeeping here, I do want to share a
quick story. Matt Mitchell told us about this yesterday.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
In week three of our contest, ad listener and naval
veteran Jacob Kve went five to zero and almost nailed
the tiebreaker, but he did not finish first because of
our new additional tiebreaker, which is time of submission of Unfortunately,
(06:43):
he got an auto email telling him he had one,
and our contest team had to explain that it was
an error. Instead of screaming himself hoarse at us, this
wonderful listener simply asked that you make a donation. Listen
up donation to the Denver Animal Shelter. Encourage any pet
(07:09):
loving listeners to do the same if you're feeling generous,
If you want to honor Jacob's very thoughtful, selfless request,
we've added a Denver Animal Shelter link in this episode's description.
Thanks for listening, Thank you for your service, Thank you
(07:29):
for being so thoughtful, Jacob Kfey, Jacob Cavy. Moving on
to the NFL Week five. Okay, ready, Simon hard game
to start the week Tampa Bay at Atlanta. Lanta's a
one and a half point favorite. It's a fascinating game.
I can say five weeks into the season, was anyone
thinking these two teams would be among the class of
(07:51):
the NFC And yet Simon, here we are.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Yeah, and it's a game you were on Sunday night
you said you like tamp I think they're plus two
and a half. So I was a little wary of it.
I was like, of course, everyone likes Tampa. They just
looked amazing. This is kind of where I want to
sell them in a short week after that big win.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
But I have no real filth for this game.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
I'll probably end up taking Atlanta just because of their
home team on Thursday night, and it's only they're only
a one and a half point favorite. But there's a
lot of trends that point to the Bucks. There's a
lot of things alike about this Bucks team compared to
to Atlanta team. So I totally get where you're coming from.
What a lot of people are thinking here. And you know,
looking at the Action app, a lot of the money
and the tickets have come in on the Bucks. It's
moved down a point, makes sense right, they look like
(08:33):
the better team right now.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
So yeah, this is a game We're happy we don't
have to pick or really put in our contest.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Yeah, it's actually interesting, Like I'd honestly want to fade
both of these teams. Mentioned it seriously, like the Bucks
have been a pretty predictable team to bet. I think
up until this week. You know, we nail them as
a fade against the Broncos, classic spot, and then we
(09:00):
got him right against the Eagles. Well, you got him right,
I followed along. Meanwhile, Atlanta, they're just grinding out games,
I know, and so like it's hard to discount the
fact that they are playing to their strengths. They are
(09:20):
playing well defensively. Raheem Morris is a really good coach.
They barely lost that game to the Chiefs. They ground
out another win last week with the last second field goal. Like,
I don't want to play either of these teams, neither
of the trends that you just mentioned. You want to
play the home teams on Thursday nights. You want to
(09:43):
play against the division dogs when they are You want
to play against division dogs, especially short dogs, you know,
like forty five against the spread home division faves. I
don't know, man, Yeah, it's tough, the tough one. I
think it's it's a total like watch and enjoy and
(10:05):
maybe put together a ten dollars you know, SGP from
whatever we've got running on the Action Network. See what
Nick Giffen has to say. But I don't, I don't
really have an opinion on this game. I don't. I
can't force it. The New York Jets, Minnesota, it's the
London game. Minnesota is a two and a half point favorite.
(10:26):
And look, this one got hit really fast. We didn't
even talk about this on Sunday night. The game opened
late Sunday afternoon and the Vikings were like a half
point favorite, and within less than an hour the Vikings
were all of a sudden at two and a half.
And so what is that telling you right now.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
That this game is over in Europe? That's really what
this line's telling me you. Historically, if you just are
trending better, you're always better the favorites when it's over
in England. It's just historically that's the team that usually
covers and wins. To me, this is a game I
wanted to be all over the Jets, and I was
pissed when I found out this was in England, because
it's like, Okay, if this was in Minnesota, you know,
(11:14):
this line probably would have been four and a half
five the Valley would have been on the Jets. And
this is a good matchup for Aaron Rodgers. Like this,
this defense that floors is running. It's really good against young,
inexperienced quarterbacks. I really haven't seen a lot of extic,
you know, type of defenses.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Aaron Rodgers has seen it at all. He'd be able
to figure it out and pick it apart.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
And you know, now I want to join the general
public and just take the Vikings because this is an
international game. I usually just blindly bet the favorites here,
but I'll wait. If this gets the three, I'll throw
a lit on the Jets. But same kind of thing.
It's just a game. I'm not gonna really be betting
heavy because I just hate betting these international games. And
there's any type of rain, there's no way I'm betting
(11:56):
on the Jets. They looked so horrible in that rain
last week. It just that's more reasons to bet this
Vikings team. They just look like the more comfortable and
more complete team.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Right now.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
But this is usually the type of game we like
to go the other way on, especially against a team
that's four and oh against the spread and four and
oh against the season.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
But I have to wait another week. CHAT don't know
if we're going to mess with this international one now.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Look, the favorites are thirty four and ten straight up
and thirty ten against the spread.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
I know, right, that's crazy.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
There is a bigger question here, and like you're right
about Brian Flores and what he has been able to
do this Jets team. I feel like when you have
to manage people as a boss, you have to be
(12:50):
so cognizant of what you're saying at all times, and
oftentimes you need to play to the nuance of language,
and I feel like to make sure that everyone is
on the same page, or to make sure that people
aren't getting upset about the way you're saying something or
(13:12):
what you're saying. I feel like Robert sala is at
that stage of the relationship with Aaron Rodgers where every
week they are trying to explain something to show that
their relationship is fine. Two weeks ago it was the Hug,
right this week, there's a story when he's talking about
(13:33):
the cadence, he's talking about the operation. Then he needs
to backtrack and say, our operation is great. We're trying
to push the edge of the envelope with the Cadence.
All because there were five fall starts for the Jets
this past week and they look like an undisciplined, poorly
coached team and Aaron Rodgers is getting frustrated with this.
But do you get what I'm saying, Like, have you
(13:54):
noticed that? Do you see that? To me? That doesn't
builde well for this Jets team right now?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Yeah, I don't mind that stuff at all. Honestly, I
think it's a good open dialogue. But I liked what
Aaron Rodgers said back of well, maybe we should just
hold people accountable, which is the damn truth. It's like,
you're out of your mind, sal if you think Aaron
Rodgers should change the type of style he plays, especially
what he does the offensive line. It's a rhythm thing.
They'll they'll get it together. That's just a classic throw
(14:23):
the game out. You know, if their Kickerdy missed that
field goal, they would have won the game. Then who
really cares?
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Right, But obviously it's not ideal, But at the same time, it's.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Like, yeah, I don't care, it's it's just that's the
way their team's gonna be, right. I think Aaron Rodgers
the type of guy that he will always speak his mind,
especially to the media.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
We've seen that when he goes on his weekly show
every week.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
So it's like he's not he doesn't worry, it doesn't matter,
put it out there. So if Sala is gonna open
himself up to that stuff, you know, Sala's gonna gonna
get a lot of pushback.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
I mean, poor Sala. He finally gets a quarterback that
can maybe help this team win, and it just happens
to be the most unmanageable quarterback who's going to make
him look come on, he cannot control this team in
any way, shape or form. At any time.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
I would say he can control his defense. But this
is Aaron Rodgers' offense.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
So that's why I think Aaron was a little pissy
where it's just like, you know, he had a dog
shit game. The offense played like shit, the defense played great,
And I think that's why there's a.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Little bit of head button there.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
But yeah, not ideal, like you're saying, all right, well,
we're over too so far. Normally this would be a
spot where we smash.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
We can't put this in the contest anyway, No, well.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
Why we can't put a Sunday London game in the contest.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
I thought last year we couldn't, but I could be wrong.
That's that is correct, all right.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
We can't do that.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
We can't play get it together.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
God, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Sorry. It's been a very
long day so far, Miami at New England. If we
wanted to put this in the contest, we could. I
feel like this is a game, one of those games where,
all right, somebody's got to win the game. We think
the line has flipped since last night, when the Dolphins
looked worse than they possibly could and Mike McDaniels actually
(16:09):
said after the game there will be some changes. And
yet the Pats looked there worse for a second week
in row, completely uncompetitive against the Niners. And I don't
like betting a flipped favorite. So it feels like this
is another pass.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Right it is, I know, and I mean there are
there are again, there are games coming up that I
absolutely love, So don't don't freak out people, But this
is another game you're right, It's like I wanted to
take the Patriots. They were going to be a home dog.
This was gonna be like a no brainer play. Now
it's flipped and it's like, at what point does their
value on this Miami team? Because you're right, these are
just two terrible teams. I guess we'll just bet the under.
(16:50):
Let's see what the total is down to now, because
I know it was it was moving last night. Yeah,
it's you know, it's down to thirty five and a half,
so probably not gonna take it, but it was it
was thirty seven last night, and it's like, oh, that's
there's some value there. So yeah, just both both teams
look like they're going to finish down towards the bottom
(17:10):
of the AFC this year. It's just not going well
for either team right now.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
I hope Mike McDaniels doesn't get fired. I think the
NFL is more fun and more interesting with him in it.
You're not as sentimental like as I am on.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
That no, and especially because like I liked him at first,
but I knew if there was any if there was
a if they're ever going to start losing games, people
are gonna hate this guy.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Immediately.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
They're just there's a quality to him of like, why
are you so cocky nonchalant, dude, You've never even won
a playoff game? Like what is this always wearing white
with the cool shades down in Miami type of attitude.
So I get why their fans are just starting to
turn on this guy because if he was a Philly guy,
oh my god, I would I would absolutely hate this
guy if he was up in Philadelphia. But if he
(17:56):
was my offensive coordinator, kind of love him. Think he's
kind of a genius. So I'm with you, Chad. It's like,
I think the guy has the skills, I just don't
know if he's got the head coach qualities.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
This might be the shortest podcast we've ever done because
we clearly can't find a game that we're going to
bet on. Simon, once again, I'm going to ask you
one of the bed rock questions of our relationship. What
is the best ticketing app in the United States?
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Game Time?
Speaker 1 (18:31):
That's right, it's Game Time. As longtime listeners, now, I'm
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Just create an account and redeem code favorites for twenty
dollars off. We're getting to a game, okay, Carolina at Chicago.
We cash betting the Bears in the exact right spot
last week, Simon. Indeed, this Sunday, the first game we
(19:59):
identified on the show Sunday Night Carolina plus five. The
line was down to three and a half Monday afternoon.
Now it's it's settled in at four. Give me your
thoughts here.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Yeah, it was your first bet, A game I loved
as well. I think, you know, a couple of books
had popped all way up to five five and a
half and we talked that was just way too high.
Now it's right where it should be. Like, I still
like Carolina, still think this is a nice number, especially
with Andy Dalton. You know, I think this is gonna
be a good back and forth. But it's all about Carolina.
(20:34):
Run the ball against your team, right, can Chrue Hubbard
and Miles Sanders the one two punch really dominate this
game because that's how they're gonna have to win this game.
They're not gonna be able to win it with any Dalton, right.
I just think your secondary is just too good. And
another side, Caleb's got to do it here. Like you know,
me and Evan did a show before this and Maven
(20:55):
had a great bet. It was like, who you gonna
bet this week to throw over a touchdown and a
half Watson against this terrible Commanders defense or Williams against
this horrible.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Secondary of Carolina.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
And it was tough, but picking between those two guys,
it's like, man, Caleb's got to do it here, like
this is a good matchup for him passing, and why
so not not one of the games I'm like super
happy to take now that it's moved so much. But again,
if it's four to four and a half, I could
get there. Like it just feels like that's too much
respect to a rookie that really hasn't deserved that much respect.
(21:28):
And a team we've seen historically have you know, good
wins and then just played terrible the next game, right,
because they're a young team. It's just it's been up
and down this season with this Bears team. So yeah,
once again, great initial read by you, but the professionals
will follow it, and they've bet this down by two
points point and a half.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Well, the professionals often bible me. I know they're listening
to the show and they hear my insight. They're like,
we better get that number before it moves. I don't mind.
I thought it was two much at five. Having watched
every snap of every Bears game, I feel like I
know this team and when they're trending and which way
(22:08):
in that they shouldn't be five point favorites against anybody.
And if you've watched football the last two weeks. The
Carolina Panthers are just a better team with Andy Dalton right,
and their pass blocking is number two in the NFL
according to Pro Football Focus, and that does neutralize what
(22:29):
is probably one of the best elements of the Bears
defense right now, which has been their pass rush. And
we saw it last week. It's a bad offensive line,
like they were all over Matthew Stafford. So I think
four is probably a little bit too high. Still, it
feels like it should be three. If we can get
(22:51):
it four and a half in the contest, I bet
it gets in there. It will not be It will
not be my executive decision. All Indianapolis at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This is a tough one, really tough one. On Sunday night,
we leaned Indie plus three. It's down to two and
a half. Good instincts by you. We have the classic
(23:13):
Bilo cell high philosophy versus the historical trend philosophy, the
culture high. Jags are low. Last week we bought low
or sold high on the Bears, Steelers, Raiders, Baltimore and
it totally worked. But we played the Division Dogs and
(23:34):
the Chargers and the Vikings, and we faded home division
faves in a bad spot in Houston and Green Bay.
So do we fade the division fave in the Jags?
Did we buy the failing team in the Jacks?
Speaker 3 (23:50):
And I'm shocked, Like when I talked to you know,
I was in Atlantic City yesterday, I'm talking to bookmakers.
I'm like, you guys aren't getting any Jags money, right, Like,
no one's everyone's taking the Colts.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
And he's like, shockingly, it's the cementa Jags money.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
And I think everyone's looking the same thing where it's like,
are they really about to be zero for five? I
mean they're the only zero to four team right now
in football? And if this ain't it, this is it? Right?
Like this feels like this is the game for Doug Peterson,
Like if this team likes him at all.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
They show up here. It's a lot, a lot to
put onto this team.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
And obviously, you know, me and you both thought fright
away were like that's too high with the Colts.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Why is this number not down to one?
Speaker 3 (24:31):
That's my big concern here, Like that means professional money
is still keeping this up on this Jaguars team. So
I'm with you, this is a game where I'll have
a better read on Thursday once we know what Anthony
Richardson's doing. Because to me, if it's Anthony Richardson coming
back from an injury being forced into this game.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
I like the Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
If it's Joe Flacco after a full week of taking
first team reps, I kind of like the Colts there,
especially at a plus number. I just think that offense
will be better suited with a veteran like Joe Flah.
Then what me and you have experienced every time we
bet the Colts this year, right, you never know what's
gonna happen on the next play with Anthony Richardson, which
you know we didn't mind because we're like, you know what,
they'll figure it out. They have a good offense with
(25:12):
Joe Flacco. It's like, Okay, he might give us one
or two really bad throws that could turn into a
really bad interception, but the rest of it's just so smart.
Like even going back watching that game, he came off
the bench. I mean, that's why you get a guy
like that, like he came in no first team reps.
The offense isn't built around him, right, I know, obviously
they switch it up on the fly there, but it
(25:32):
was like, this is this is why he's such a
good guy to.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Have as a backup here.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
So yeah, that's my view on this right now, Chad.
It's like a game I'll bet on Thursday, but right
now I'm just gonna keep holding our Colts plus three ticket,
not really doing anything with this game.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
Joe Flacco is elite, as he likes to say. This
Jacks team is a freaking mess. So think about the
trends for a second home faves against division opponents since
twenty fifteen forty five percent against the spread, short home
(26:06):
faves since twenty sixteen against the division opponent forty five
percent against the spread. This Jacks team, Evan Ingram likely
still out. Josh heinz Allen left the game with a concussion.
The defense is terrible, and that was before they were
(26:26):
missing defensive backs who won't be on the field this
week as they were not last week. They are one
to nine since they won in Houston in November to
get to eight to three last season, thirty first in
point margin at minus forty nine, only above the Panthers,
(26:49):
who by the way, are getting better, Like would you
rather be a Panthers fan or Jaguars fan. Right now,
that's the problem with this Jacks team is like it is,
it is just so so ugly, and yet we might
want to bet him.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Yeah, might not bet them this week.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
That's terrible, that's awful. So kind of another one Buffalo
with Houston. Houston is now a one point favorite. Neither
of these teams are making it really easy, right, Like
the Ravens were really exposed, really exposed the Bill's weaknesses,
especially in the middle field, especially against the run. Derrick
(27:29):
Henry finished the game with almost two hundred yards one
ninety nine and nearly ten yards per carry. Like, the
Texans are not as good without Joe Mixon, but CJ.
Shroud like should be able to carve up this defense
with Nico Collins, who is a giant of a human
being running over the middle.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Yeah, brutal too, and Nico Collins mean chat made a
bet on Cooper Cupp who's going to lead the league
in receiving yards and the other guy on my list
was Nico.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
Collins And now, oh, you never told me that.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
Yeah, And the only reason I didn't want to hammer
him on the show was just because of Stefan dis
like I let that get me too scared off, or
it's like, well they'll spread the ball around or at
least Cooper Cup. If Puka goes down, he's the guy
we don't have to deal with the tank Dallas Dick.
So I think Nego Collins is like two hundred yards
up on the closest guy and second something crazy like that.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
You're right.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
We talked Sunday night. I said, grab the Bills plus
two right now, just in case they roll this Ravens
team and you get a good number. They got blown
out and this number has moved three points in that direction.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
Chet. So the professionals don't care. They love the Bills in.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
The spot, and I think they kind of have the
same view a lot of us did coming in the
year of Okay.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
CJ.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Stroud did great last year, but he was so great
because no one saw it coming, and defense doesn't have
a ton of tape to build off of it. This year,
it all feels like it's been a grind for them,
right that all their games they win are close. Right now,
they're three to one with a minus fifteen point differential,
like it's the only team with that, Like they're the
only team that has that type of record with that
(29:03):
type of point differential on. It's just because you know,
they've won close games and they got rolled against that
Vikings team. So to me, this is now at the
point where Evan's gonna have the trendses too. But like,
we're gonna have to take Houston, especially if this number
keeps going. If this touch is two two and a half,
this is an automatic play in the contest because that's
just too much disrespect for this Houston.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
Team at home.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
And me and you like to bet CJ is a
dog like that. Till last year we kind of were
stayed away from as a favorite, but as a dog,
we love CJ. He's just really good when he's kind
of counted out in these positions. So this is like
a perfect spot for a Houston team that they're zero
to four against the spread. Because the books, they knew
the public will keep coming in on them. They could
(29:47):
set the line and every week, whether it was a
half a point they wouldn't cover by or they were
a getting rolled, they kept not covering. I think we're
finally gonna get caught up here with the book chat.
I think we're gonna finally get a good number year
on Houston. That's gonna have the value for them and
top you said the name Joe Mixon, That to me
is what I'm waiting for here. Like, if he's guaranteed
to play this game, he's good to go. That to
me is a huge dealt to this Houston team. You
(30:09):
just seen his identity really changed his team early in
the season when he was playing, how they could just
lean on their run and make everything else so much
easier on offense. So I like that you brought up
his name. Just that's something people to keep an eye
on this week. If Joe Mix is going to be
finally practicing.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
The line flip also is something, yeah, a trend that
we always like to look at it, And now it feels
like we're getting a at least a comparable team to
the Bills at home. Also might be getting them at
a little point. So I like the idea of playing
Houston here. I do think it has a good chance
(30:46):
of getting into the contest, depending on how this number moves.
I think it's optimistic to think it might get to
two or two and a half. I think it's probably
settling in at that one. To two range. I still
wouldn't be that afraid to play the Texans, though, if
I can get them as underdog in the contest, I
kind of like it either way.
Speaker 3 (31:03):
You're right, the books will eventually take a stand, but
I think I'll just keep moving because it's professional money
moving it right now, like action app it's what bets.
Eighty percent of the money right now is on the bills.
So yeah, you know, eventually you're right. The pros will
come back in on it, but they're going to keep
moving it eventually.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
I'm always right, just sometimes it takes time, but I
tell my wife, eventually I'm going to be right. Give
it five years, ten years, thirty years, whatever it takes.
One of these days, it's gonna happen. You know, what
is right, Simon, what's right is Tommy John. I mentioned
to you at the top of the show that we
(31:40):
are coming live from the Tommy John Home studios. That's
because great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John
makes the greatest coincidence that we're four and zero and
our big balls better of the week since we started
wearing our Tommy John underwear on the Thursday show. When
we make that call I don't think so oh, got
(32:01):
a huge box of swag from Tommy John yesterday. I'm
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(32:43):
Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
Simon Baltimore's Cincinnati we got a good spot here, Cincinnati
plus three home dog. It's a good spot for home dogs.
Are we primed to sell high on the Ravens here
(33:08):
and buy a struggling Bengals team.
Speaker 2 (33:12):
Simon says, grab the plus three right now. When Simon says,
we do what Simon says.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
There's no way this last. It's gonna go to plus
two and a half. It has to come back down.
This is just way too much movement. I knew coming
into this week we were probably gonna be on them.
I think we talked Sunday night. I said the number
was plus one on Cincy. Don't touch this weight. Even
if they lose the Ravens Rockets still see that number moving.
And they went the other way where they blew that
(33:42):
team out, And now it's moved the whole point in
a half and now it's two and a half. Some
books up to three. Like you just said, so too
much of a reaction to this team. And we talk
all the time, these divisional games are just different. You
have to think about them differently. You have to view
it differently because these teams are just so familiar with
each other. And you know, as dominant the Ravens looked
in that game, there was still some part of me
(34:04):
that's just like, there's still a way to attack this team,
and there's still a way to get away with why
they're not you know, this overwhelming the league diminant team
like they were last year. So to me, the line
reflects the public reaction to this. But I am shocked
and moved this much. I'm just shocked professionals that have
moved this much because I already loved Sinceanty come to
this game, and now you know, when you really dive
(34:26):
into the numbers, Joe Burrow, he's playing an MVP level.
It's another little bet I'm gonna steal from Evan. If
you like me and you like the Bengals to pull
the upset off and win this game, you might as
well go through a little bet on Joe Burrow to
b MVP because if he wins this game and he's
all right, so this team starts zero for three this year,
they win this divisional game. Now they're two to three,
(34:47):
you know, just like the Ravens, and we see the
season play out and he does win this division. I
could see it being a great value bet right now
in Joe Burrow because he just played so well this
season and just the way their defenses as well. I
feel like he's always gona keep putting up stats. Right
He's got seven touchdowns win interception right now, I see
that keep being getting better throughout the season because there's
just going to be so much put onto his shoulders
(35:09):
to lead this offense. So I love the offensive style
Cincinnati matching up for this Baltimore defense. And then on
the flip side, we've just seen it before, like Cincinnati
always plays them really tough, Like defensively, Eve only had
their backup in last year that came down to the
last possession type of game. So I do like the
Cincinnati team, but I am shocked. Shocked you can get
(35:30):
a plus three right now.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, Joe Burrow has been playing great. We loved this
team heading into the season. It's been disappointing that they
are zero and three and look for talking about one
in three now, I mean one in three Home division
dog trends September October the division dog in the last
decade at home sixty percent against the spread fifty four percent,
(35:56):
so a slight ROI positive since twenty two, three to
zero to one against the spread this season home division dogs.
So yeah, it's the exact right spot to play the Bengals.
You gotta do it. Here's a crazy stat though about
Derrick Henry. Forget about how well he played the other
night against Buffalo, one hundred and ninety nine yards first
(36:20):
play the game, eighty seven yard touchdown run Simon he
reached twenty one point two nine miles per hour when
he was running for that touchdown. According to Next Gen Stats,
that's the fourth fastest speed by anyone any ballcarrier this year.
(36:41):
I don't think of Derrick Henry and automatically think, oh, yeah,
this guy's so speedy. He's reached a speed of twenty
miles per hour or faster twenty seven times since twenty eighteen.
Only one player has done it more than him. We kill.
Is that insane?
Speaker 2 (37:02):
It is.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
He's just when you think of like the great freak
athletes ever played this sport, you know, Calvin Johnson, Derrick
Henry is like right up there. Like I always think
of all those old bow Bow Knows commercials when it
was like, yeah, this is what we envisioned him to be,
and it's like, Derrick Henry's him times ten. Right. It's
just especially what it's a year thirty he's I mean,
he's thirty years old this year.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
It's year it's year thirty for him in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
I mean I just thought he would be dropped off.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
I was one of those people where was like, uh,
it's an upgrade for the Ravens at the running back position,
but how much tread does he have left in.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
The tires apparently a lot.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Apparently last year he might have taken the year off,
and he's got a plenty left. So yeah, that first
play was just it's the best. I like, there's nothing
like first play. Run, hits the whole right, and then
they're just gone. I think it's I'd have that fact check,
but I believe it was like the longest play or
running back has ever had in Ravens history.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
So fat he's running. Evan says that is correct simon
the fact he's running twenty miles an hour and doing
it more often than anybody in the league's since since
other than Tyreek Hill. Is phenomenal because you only think
about him as being the guy who gets the hard yards,
who stiff arms people, who runs people over, who makes
(38:20):
people look bad. I don't think I really had a
full understanding or appreciation of just how superhuman he is
as an athlete. I'll tell you what those State Farm
commercials don't do it.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
You're alive.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Cleveland at Washington. Washington is a three point favorite. I
want to fade the Commanders so badly here. But this
Browns team, it's not even Deshaun Watson. It's their offensive line,
like now Ethan Poseick, the center who left the game
last weekendst the Raiders. He's day to day with an
ankle injury. And when you look at the Browns, don't
(38:53):
forget last week we had the Raiders at like a
short number is a favorite, one, one and a half, two,
whatever it was. I don't know, I don't remember talking
to you about this. When the Raiders all of a sudden,
we're underdogs because Crosby was out, Adams was out whatever.
I didn't buy out of my bet. I just let
it ride with the Raiders that win and a AX,
I'm like, I don't think it matters. I don't think
(39:14):
this Cleveland king team can do anything.
Speaker 3 (39:18):
Yeah, we actually we did talk a upon of contentst
because they're two and a half in our contest. We're like,
should we take it?
Speaker 2 (39:22):
And then we just again we didn't want to lose
the numbers we.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
Had, But yeah, that's that Cardinals bet in there.
Speaker 3 (39:28):
Yeah. Now, I think it was honestly because we didn't
want to lose the seven and a half on the
charger because that was six and a half, which being
the right move.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
But yeah, it's I don't know what to deal with
this one.
Speaker 1 (39:39):
Because it's really you want to bet the Browns.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
It's honestly, we're making a bet though on Schwartz in
this defense. That's that's like the position here.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
It's like, okay, the defense that is getting crushed right now.
Speaker 2 (39:51):
I know, and we talked coming in the year.
Speaker 3 (39:52):
This is why I didn't like the Browns though, because
we've seen in his circle of data with Schwartz, his
defense is really dominant one year and then the next
year they're they're completely not the same, like whatever that is.
Speaker 2 (40:04):
They just don't carry it over from year to year.
Speaker 3 (40:05):
And that's usually how it is with defenses, right, It's
just so hard to carry that type of momentum from
year to year, you know, mixing that MOUs Garrett's you know,
gonna have to get Shurger're on his feet whenever this
whenever he is and ever the season is over.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
What are we betting here?
Speaker 3 (40:19):
Like everything in my body, even my model likes Washington, Like,
I still think this number is too low fishy and
like someone someone messages me like, oh, it's because Nick
Chubb's coming back.
Speaker 2 (40:30):
I promise you.
Speaker 3 (40:32):
The sports books aren't holding this number here because Nick
Chubb's coming back. That's that they do not care, and
I'm the same thing. I him coming off a major
knee injury in his first start. Yeah, it's good for Cleveland,
but like, does it really move the needle that much?
Speaker 2 (40:45):
I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
So maybe I'll have the better read my talk to
some other professionals. But like, I haven't made a single
bet on this game. It got the three at one
point Washington. As soon as I called the book to
make a bet on it, they moved it right back
up to three, and so I never was able to
get the three on Washington.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
So fishy, fishy line this week. This is one of
the fishy air lines this week, and.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
I just have no read on it where it's like
the pro in me is like, dude, you got to
take Cleveland hearing me, But the guy who's watched football
through four weeks is just like one team has never
been more sure of itself and confident in its ability.
The other team has totally lost. And Chad just said
they have even more injuries now to that offensive line.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
The Commanders are averaging thirty points a game and they
have scored more points each week than they did the
week before.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
That's crazy.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
Jaden Daniels, who I feel like you started talking about
him as potential offensive rookie of the year before the
season started. Am I remembering that correctly?
Speaker 2 (41:45):
Yeah, we loved them.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
We said it was just basically that why should Williams
be the odds on favorite guy? It's like their skill
level wasn't that different. I just my whole pushback was just,
at the end of the day, if they're both six
and ten, seven to ten, it's like if it's a
coin flip, they're gonna get it to every's a better
stat So I thought it should have been closer number.
(42:06):
But yeah, it wasn't a I wish it was a table.
I was like banging on the table, being like, you
have to bet Jaden Daniels, but nothing like that.
Speaker 1 (42:13):
Well, Jaden Daniels has completed more than eighty two percent
of his passes. Crazy eighty seven for one oh six.
That's not that's like for the season. It's the two
most accurate back to back performances against Cincinnati and Arizona
the past two weeks by anyone. Ever. No one has
(42:35):
ever had a more accurate first four games. And by
the way, he's got two hundred and eighteen rushing yards.
It's the second most by a quarterback in his first
four games other than RG three. We talked about those comps,
like this guy is flashing CJ. Stroud vibes for this
(42:55):
Washington team, and after four games, I feel like the
projection what you see is what you get. It's not
he's going to all of a sudden crater. He might
toe play well like he's he's a good quarterback, like
he's fitting into this league. He's going to make the
(43:16):
right decisions. He's not a rookie quarterback who you need
to desperately be afraid of.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
He will hit the rookie wall, though. That's inevitable. Everyone
everyone hits it. That's just why, Like you know, Ev't
had that amazing stat a couple of years ago, and
pretty minute the NFC Championship game, and they lost because
no rookie ever makes it pass that championship game.
Speaker 1 (43:37):
Even they lost that because they tore his arm off.
Speaker 3 (43:40):
Yeah, but I'm saying, just historically, even go back further,
I'm saying it never happens, just because eventually you do
hit that wall, Like eventually they do get enough film
on these rookies that a team they run into a
team that is good enough to figure out that game
plan right now. It's like, even if they it's the
best defense in football, how do you not feel confident
right now in this kid? Even I know he's beat
up on bad defenses, but he just looks so cool, calm, collected,
(44:04):
and you just right off to all those numbers. It's like,
even if he takes a little step down, it's still
an all pro level. That's what's so impressive about this
kid right now.
Speaker 1 (44:13):
If he takes a little step down, then all of
a sudden, he's having a slightly worse start to his
career than Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes right right, Seriously,
that's what happens.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
So I don't know what to deal with it.
Speaker 3 (44:25):
Like I said, I eventually it's gonna come the other
way though, because teams will get more film on them,
and it just like, there's a reason these coaches are getting.
Speaker 2 (44:32):
Paid millions of dollars.
Speaker 3 (44:33):
They're really good at what they do, and they do
eventually figure you out and how to make you uncomfortable
and get in your head a little bit. But he's
playing like a quarterback that is not thinking totally immersing
the offense and he looks like someone that's never taken
a really bad hit in the pocket, right He just
he's so confident in the pocket right now. Even in
games where he's gotten blown up, he gets back up
and he's just so cool. Calm doesn't even phase him.
(44:55):
So again, Washington fans, you just I can't imagine being
a fan of Washing right now.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
It's gotta be the best filling in the world.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
Bears fans might disagree with you about. These coaches are
really good at what they do and that's why they
get paid millions a million. These defenses are right, Yeah,
I'm not talking about that. I'm not talking about our
defensive coordinator Las Vegas and Denver. Denver is a two
and a half point favorite. Look, this is a spot
where we should probably want to fade the home division favorite.
(45:24):
I've said this a bunch of times. What's weird to
me is we both talked about this on Sunday. It
was a two and a half. It's the game we
wanted to bet at two and a half. This number
went down to two, but then all of a sudden
yesterday it went up to two and a half, and
then it was at three, and I don't understand now
it's back down to two and a half. I don't
understand why it went up to three and why the
(45:47):
wise guys aren't pouring in on this game because I
think I still love the Raiders here.
Speaker 2 (45:54):
Yeah, I do too. I think it's a view of it.
The vibes might be horrible in Las Vegas and what's
going on with all the injuries there.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
So I'm sure you saw this morning, DeVante Adams is
getting asked all these questions by Ky Adams. It's like,
why is your coach liking post about you being traded?
Have you have you heard anything from the team? And
Adam Schefter is reporting that apparently this team's exploring trade
options for Devonte Adams. So you know, maybe this guy's
a cancer and he's helping drag this team down this week.
Speaker 2 (46:21):
And that's what guys are thinking.
Speaker 3 (46:22):
It's like, well, I don't want to bet this team
with all this turmoil going on where they're trying to
trade their number one receiver.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
I kind of look at the other way. It's like
he didn't play last week.
Speaker 3 (46:30):
In the offense, they seem like they moved the ball
pretty well, right, and obviously they'd be better if he
was in there, but they're not totally reliant on him.
I think, I mean you, the biggest reason we wanted
to take this is we're getting to fade. Bo Nicks
is a favorite, yes, like automatically right already, where it's
(46:50):
like we want to be on divisional dogs in the
first place. Now you're mixing that it's a rookie QB
favoriteed same reason we kind of like like the Panthers,
it's like, as much as respect we want to give
you these rookies, all three of them are favored right
now this week, and it's like that usually does not
bode well for a bunch of rookies, And the only
one we're really terrified to fade is the best looking one,
(47:11):
right Jay and Daniels and the other two, I think
we're both in the same mentality of like, yeah, i'll
take that plus three on the Raiders, I'll take that
plus two and a half. So it's another bet where
I bet it. No need to put any more on
it if you've already bet it. Let's wait and see
what if Max Crosby's back, Like what the injury report
is for this upcoming week for this Raiders team, but
(47:32):
this is like a game I was like, this is
probably be one of me and Chad's five. Now, if
this gets up to three three and a half and
we can put in our contest at that number, this
is a no brainer play if we're catching over three
against boon Nicks in a divisional game. So yeah, this
is a game I really like. Only fear is we
don't really know what's going on with the health wise
(47:53):
of this Raiders team.
Speaker 1 (47:55):
I'll be very interested to see what the sharp calls
are here, because this also might end up being a
foxhol Like you and I just might be liking the
Raiders and everyone else might be seeing something. And it's
not about the Broncos offense. It's really about is their
defense better than people think.
Speaker 3 (48:15):
I do have a really good pass rush, I'll say, like,
thanks for bringing that up. They do have some dogs
up front.
Speaker 1 (48:20):
They've got like their defense is much much better than
I think people are giving them credit for. And it's
why they've been able to stay in games against the Seahawks.
It's why they were able to stay in the game
against the Jets and ultimately win that game. Obviously the
weather held, But when you've got a quarterback who is,
by the way, having the worst outing in a game
(48:43):
since nineteen sixty five. He had a whopping sixty yards
and averaged two point four yards per pass, the third
lowest average YPA by any quarterback with twenty five or
more pass in modern history. In the Super Bowl, I
(49:04):
love him.
Speaker 2 (49:04):
And guess what your early four games, four wins away
for Denver hitting their win total over So yeah, that's
that was a pretty big win last week.
Speaker 1 (49:12):
We love us some Sean Payton, We truly do. He's
the better's friend Arizona at San Francisco. San Francisco seven
and a half point favorite. A couple of trends are
forcing us to take the Cardinals seriously right now, Home
division faves forty five percent since twenty fifteen, dogs of
six or more, eight and five straight up against the spread,
(49:35):
twelve and one through twelve and one against spread through
the first few games. I'm sorry, I got update that
it's nine to eight straight up, fourteen to two to
one against the spread through the first four weeks. We
don't want to take the Cardinals, but I think we
have to take the Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (49:54):
I think we might have to take the forty nine
ers some well respected guys, friend, like the forty nine ers,
and I don't want to go against them. I know
I wanted to be on the Cardinals here, like this
is a big number. Big big dogs have been covering
this number. Big dogs have been winning outright at this number.
I might be getting bullied into the forty nine ers,
your brother, just some I'm just telling on you to
(50:17):
be careful with this.
Speaker 1 (50:17):
Listen, you be careful. You be careful. You know why.
You know why. We've been getting bullied all season on
some games, and every time we get bullied and go
against our instincts, we end up being wrong. Number of
the Packers. Yes, the Packers last weekend talking Minnesota. True,
(50:38):
we were talking Minnesota the whole week.
Speaker 2 (50:39):
I love them.
Speaker 1 (50:41):
We talk on Sunday morning. You're like, I'm getting bullied
right now, kind of like the Packers.
Speaker 2 (50:47):
I'm like, these guys guys win big money.
Speaker 3 (50:49):
Brother, you wanted to make the forty nine ers our
foxhole bet, and I wouldn't let you do it because
a big time sharp message meing was like stay away
from the forty nine ers. Now, I fucked up by
some because I was like, well, we go ahead and
fade that guy and take this team against the Vikings,
which was an idiot move.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
But yeah, that I just want to throw caution.
Speaker 3 (51:08):
There's there's there's some really smart people right now in
this forty nine ers team, and it's just I need
more time in this one because right now I got
this model at six. So it's like I got a
point in a half of value on this Cardinals team.
I'm clearly missing something here, and maybe it's me being
too high on Kyler and not probably rating him because
(51:28):
we all got sucked in. He played great against the Bills,
you know, first half wise, and then he dominated the Rams,
had literally a perfect game, and it's just been shit
since then. Like you know that that was a brutal beat,
specially for me last week where he drove the field,
I just over a touchdown and a half first drive,
drives a field, throws a touchdown pass, and then he
(51:48):
just does nothing the rest of the game. So I
think that's the hesitation chat. I think the pros are
hesitating on him. Where Brock Purdy, he's sneakily what the
third or fourth best playing quarterback right now football, Like,
I know he's not getting the flowers because they're two
and two. But man, he's been playing incredible this season
(52:09):
rock Purty, So I think that's hesitation here. We have
one team playing the best they've looked all season. On
the flip side, we don't know what the hell of
this Cardinals team is. They just have now looked right
these last two weeks.
Speaker 1 (52:23):
This is when you buy.
Speaker 2 (52:25):
I agree.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
What are the stats when you are betting on the
team that just blown out versus the team that just
blew so right? This is the exact spot to bet
the Cardinals. Evan. If before the end of the show,
you can give us the blowout stats, that would be amazing.
(52:47):
Because I like this. This makes no sense, it makes Please.
Speaker 2 (52:51):
Get me on the Cardinals. Man, I don't I want
to get there.
Speaker 1 (52:54):
It makes no sense at all. Nobody bullies my bff Simon.
Speaker 2 (53:00):
Nobody, they do. They do Chad New York.
Speaker 1 (53:04):
Giants at Seattle. Seattle's minus six and a half look
before before the game last night. Brandon Anderson on his
show with Evan Abrams Sunday Nights Action netwrapot download listen,
great show. He has his hot reat segment. He liked
the Giants or he liked the Seahawks. That I think
it was minus five or five and a half. That
number lasted for about as long as it took Brandon
(53:24):
Anderson to say, take the Seahawks at minus five or
five and a half. It's settled in at six and
a half. Hasn't really moved since the Seahawks were blown
out last night. I kind of think Seattle is the
right side. The Giants aren't very good, the Seahawks. They
just met the Lions team at the exact right time.
It never made sense to me why wise guys were
buying the Seahawks. We talked about this. Now they get
(53:46):
to go back to playing bad quarterbacks and bad teams
and fooling professionals into thinking they are amazing.
Speaker 3 (53:52):
But at what point is this number two high? I
think you just said it. It's like it's up the
plus six. How much respect do we want to give
this Seahawks team? Do they just deserve all this respect
that this team is getting right now, and especially where.
Speaker 2 (54:07):
They're on a short week.
Speaker 3 (54:08):
I know they're at home, but they're playing They're on
a short week, playing against a team that had extended rest.
Speaker 2 (54:13):
And we're getting late.
Speaker 3 (54:15):
I know it doesn't feel like we're getting late to
the season here, but this is week five, Like that's
a big deal to these guys' bodies to heal that way.
So ah, man, I want to be in the Giants,
but I'll just wait. Give me, give me a six
and a half, sports books. Let me get a six
and a half so I can come in the summer.
Speaker 2 (54:31):
But it's six.
Speaker 3 (54:32):
I guess I'll just wait here at this point, Chad.
But yeah, I actually kind of like the Giants in
this spot.
Speaker 1 (54:38):
All right, let's go back to the Cardinals for a second,
because I think I like thee I like I like
the Seahawks in this spot. I like it up to
seven Cardinals. I don't even know what the final score
of that game was. I stopped watching it because.
Speaker 2 (54:50):
I was forty five fourteen.
Speaker 1 (54:51):
I think forty five to fourteen. Teams to lose by
seventeen versus a team who won by seventeen the previous
week sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years.
One matchup meets this criteria this week Arizona Cardinals, Evan.
(55:16):
How about teams that have been blown out by thirty
points or more the following week against the spread? Let's
see what that one is. And while you look that up.
Speaker 2 (55:27):
All I heard was I have a four and ten
chance of hitting that forty nine ers.
Speaker 1 (55:30):
But well, that that's, by the way, that's the beauty
of the betting, right. It is like, and we've talked
about this. We go two and three, we go two
and three, we go one and four. We just as
easily could have gone three two three, two, four and
one if not for the tiny, most infinitesimal percentages, the
(55:50):
best probabilistic thinking. Green Bay at the Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams are three and a half point home underdogs. Look,
I think the Packers in the second half last week
with Jordan Love started to get back into form. I
think this Rams team is unhealthy mentally, unhealthy physically. They're struggling.
(56:13):
I think if Jaye Alexander comes back. He did not play,
and that was a big deal in the loss of
the Vikings, justin Jefferson with them up. I like the
Packers here.
Speaker 2 (56:22):
Yeah, I took the Rams of three and a half.
Speaker 3 (56:25):
I'm with you, though I thought I was gonna be
in the Packers just because it's like, Okay, Jordan Love
Hardy got his little you know, bad game out of
the way. He should tear up this Rams secondary. Then
you kind of dive into it. It's like, this actually
isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team
who wants to run the ball, and it seems like
Green Bay that's kind of their weakness right now. Teams
(56:47):
could kind of run the ball against him and that
sets up the pass, which is what Stafford needs. I mean,
you just saw it against the Bears team. It's like
once the Bears finally took away the run, that's how
they shut down that team last week. So this is
a very telling line Chat that it's it's heavy professional
money coming in on the Rams. Seeing a couple of
(57:09):
books already move this to three, So.
Speaker 1 (57:12):
Great, great, then I'm taking the package at three.
Speaker 2 (57:16):
Don't get cocky, Chat, this is where they get you.
Don't get cocky. This is where they get you. So
just be careful.
Speaker 1 (57:24):
You gotta clip that and if the Packers don't cover three,
you got play that back on Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (57:31):
Oh just everyone be careful. Like I already was like,
what is this line?
Speaker 3 (57:36):
I'm in total agreece with Chat where I initially wanted
to just hammer this, especially now that Jordan loves back, but.
Speaker 2 (57:42):
There's something something going on here. I got this number
at three, so if it's three and a half, I'm
gonna I'll be on the RAMS side.
Speaker 3 (57:49):
If it gets down to two and a half, me
and Chad will take that value on green Bay here.
So this is this is a big, big about the
number kind of line.
Speaker 1 (57:56):
I hate when you when you say it like that.
We have been doing this show long enough for me
to know when you say be careful watch out. It's not, oh, Chad,
like you're being silly. It feels like you know something
more about this than you probably feel comfortable saying.
Speaker 3 (58:20):
No, it's a money thing. If I say what I
want to say, I have to pay someone a lot
of money for give them out their info. So it's
basically just my tongue in cheek way of not having
to pay someone six figures for using their good info?
Speaker 2 (58:32):
Is the truth?
Speaker 1 (58:33):
Interesting? We feel, but I'm not wrong. It's like you're
telling me something I am.
Speaker 3 (58:40):
Okay, Yeah, this is one of these that jump off
the board to me this week. Wow, Yeah, this is
big man. The big Man bets Chad.
Speaker 2 (58:49):
This is probably can be a big balls better of
the week. Shut up, Come on, this takes balls. Look
at you right now, you're hating every moment of this.
Speaker 1 (58:57):
I am hating every moment of it. I was gonna
go with Arizona speaking of their teams to lose by
twenty eight plus points the previous week. More stats, and
our dogs are four plus points or more the following week,
sixty two percent against the spread the following week. Come on, Simon, like, no,
(59:23):
you know what, you know what.
Speaker 3 (59:26):
It's gonna be a fun week of sharp cause I'm
already looking forward to our Thursday show.
Speaker 1 (59:30):
Oh my god. Now I thought I knew what my
exact decision was gonna be, and now you know what.
I'm sticking with it, all right. So Green Bay Rams
like I don't know what we're doing. Clearly we're putting
it on a list.
Speaker 2 (59:42):
I'm on the Rams. I know exactly what I'm doing.
Speaker 1 (59:45):
Okay. Saturday Football Dallas at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh's two and a
half on Sunday night. My first instinct was down.
Speaker 2 (59:53):
Who's your buddy? Who's your buddy?
Speaker 1 (59:54):
It warned you, Yeah, you wore me off it. You
wore me off it, and you didn't like it for
the matchup. But also now, like Micah Parsons is doubtful.
DeMarcus Lawrence is out. Yes, So no strong opinion here.
Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
No, Still, I still like Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (01:00:09):
I liked him at two. My view of it was
they match up well with what this Dallas team wants
to do. That Dallas wants to pass the ball. Pittsburgh
wants you to pass the ball. That's where they get
their turnovers, that's where they make teams to make mistakes.
Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
So I like that.
Speaker 3 (01:00:23):
My only hesitation right now with Pittsburgh is, you know,
their number one, number two running back might be out
of this game. Cordella Patterson might end up being their
number one running back here, which it's not ideal but
lucky for us. Dallas is one of the worst run
defenses in all of football. So yeah, maybe I'll get
you there come Sunday, Chad, But right now I do I.
Speaker 2 (01:00:45):
Don't feel Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (01:00:47):
I don't feel like, well, you've gone from like I
kind of like Pittsburgh too.
Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
I really like Pittsburgh just because of the injuries. You
just nailed it with injuries, Like I don't have their
best defenders are.
Speaker 1 (01:00:57):
Out, I'm not, and their two best defender is on
a team that only has five guys that played different line,
So I don't I don't hate the Steelers in this
spot at all. I just didn't feel strongly about it.
Speaker 3 (01:01:08):
I think you have good hesitation because this is usually
where Toman lets us down right exactly.
Speaker 2 (01:01:12):
That's why I understand your hesitation prime.
Speaker 1 (01:01:14):
A favorite as a favorite, and it's Justin Fields. And
we saw Justin Fields in his full Justin Fields three
hundred and sixty degree experience the other day against the Colts,
and thank god it worked out in our favor. But
he was brilliant, made terrible mistakes. Brilliant made terrible mistakes.
That's that's my hesitation here.
Speaker 2 (01:01:34):
So I got that stat ringing in my head.
Speaker 3 (01:01:35):
It's like, the real bad here is is Dallas gonna
scored more than twenty points because we know if they can't,
this is an easy one for Pittsburgh. If they can,
you're right, we'll probably lose this bet on Pittsburgh. So
that's that's definitely something that's ring in the back of
my head right now.
Speaker 1 (01:01:57):
Monday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints are I mean
the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansasity Chiefs are five and
a half point favorites now in some spots still five
at three six five, but five and a half in
other places. Simon, Yeah, the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 2 (01:02:12):
There we go.
Speaker 1 (01:02:13):
Are my executive decision.
Speaker 2 (01:02:14):
Good man?
Speaker 1 (01:02:16):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
Speaker 2 (01:02:20):
Are you have your honor's text to kute number executive decision?
It was going to be the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (01:02:26):
I almost came off it. It's going to be the Saints.
Chiefs now have a ten game winning streak dating back
to last season. Do you know what their margin of
victory is in those games? Aggregate sixty one points? Yeah,
average margin of victory this season five point three points
through the first the first three weeks of this season.
(01:02:47):
They're now gone wide receiver for she Rice led the
league in receptions, was top two in yards, top two
in targets and team target share. Howwood Brown for the season.
He was expected to be a big contributor. Now knows
Rashid Rice still know Isaiah Piccheco. We saw what happened
(01:03:10):
when they didn't have these players and they were leading
into Kareem Hunt on Sunday, mahomes as a favorite three
or more thirty ninety three against the spread, Like you
just got to fade Mahomes as a favorite of this
number in games that are constantly close, when he is
(01:03:32):
consistently losing any of his weapons.
Speaker 3 (01:03:36):
Yeah, and when I went to sportsbook yesterday, the Bills
were still a dog at that point, and the bookmaker said,
this is basically the number one teaser back to back
weeks is Bills in chief So last week it was.
Speaker 2 (01:03:47):
A number one teaser.
Speaker 3 (01:03:48):
Obviously didn't get there with the Bills getting blown out.
The public went right back to it. They went all
over this Chiefs team and their teasers right with the
Bills when the Bills were a dog. So I'm right
there with you this this feel it was a game
where me and you play the Saints, we play them
on the money line, and you know, we not that
we need a little bit of luck here, but we've
(01:04:09):
seen it, right, We've seen with this this Chiefs team
what they lack and skill they get with luck at
the end of these games. And it's like, yeah, okay,
can we just have the refs on our side in
this game, get the calls to go our way? And
really can we they take away Xavier Worthy in the
deep shot, like can they make Mahomes drive the entire field?
Because that seems like that's his issue right now, right
(01:04:30):
it's putting together these long, sustainable drives because he just
can't depend on Travis Kelce like he used to. Right,
He always had that kind of get out of jail
free car with Travis Kelser. It's like, oh, back against
the wall, third and six. I know I can dial
up to play here that Travis Kelce will get open
through impropervisation or whatever. It's just it's just a different
team this year. I mean you, we're gonna keep going
(01:04:52):
back to the well as long as it spreads above three.
Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
We talk well at the time like this is when
we'd like to go after Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (01:04:57):
So I love this pick, Chad, hoping it gets a
six for us, just because so much public money is
gonna keep coming in on this team. But I assume
the professionals are coming on the Saints team just like
we are, and bet the stumber down so happy to
grab it while you cant of five and a half.
Speaker 1 (01:05:13):
All right, So the games that we really like so
far that we have found agreement on New Orleans as
my exec decision Cincinnati, Simon says, we're still leaning in
Las Vegas plus two and a half, but we probably
want to get some sharp calls on that. We will
look forward to hearing what people have to say about
(01:05:36):
the Cardinals and the Niners. And clearly you've got something
you want to say about the Rams A plus three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:05:41):
That is I've said too much.
Speaker 1 (01:05:44):
That is making me rethink my entire existence right now.
Speaker 2 (01:05:47):
No so, and don't Houston. We like Houston too. Remember
to keep going up as well.
Speaker 1 (01:05:55):
Houston, Houston, Houston plus one all right. As reminder, fun
ugly dogs is really fun ugly dogs. As a reminder,
The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five
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(01:06:56):
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