July 22, 2025 • 48 mins
This offseason saw trades, a wild NFL Draft, big free agent signings and much more, with evert move impacting the upcoming NFL fantasy season. And while some were splashy moves that garnered big headlines, plenty more went under the radar. Here to discuss the downstream impacts of 10 of the most significant moves are two giants of the fantasy community. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome on their colleagues Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon of the Fantasy Flex Podcast, who were recently recognized by FantasyPros as two of the most accurate fantasy projectionists the last 3 seasons. They cover the impact of Stefon Diggs in New England, a new coach in Chicago and Jacksonville, and lots more. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad, moment of the Action Network.
Let's get to it, folks. We're going to welcome in
my co host, my companion, Micah Badra, my BFF, professional
matter sign man Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
No.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
So I'm in Chad. Another week closer to football, brother.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
We're getting there. What I don't like, here's what I
don't like. I don't like when people are like, only
four more Sundays to kick off, Because the truth is,
I also like my Sundays as they are right now.
Like the other day, it was Sunday I was reading,
you know, at like eleven o'clock and it was stress free,
(00:50):
and I thought to myself, very soon, my Sundays are
not going to be stress free and they're going to
be super busy. So as much as I'm looking forward
to the season and what we're doing today, I don't
want people like counting me down.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
You know what I mean that tweets not for you?
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Then I need to countdown because I get lost in
the summer where I'm just got ahead of my own ass,
and all of a sudden I see that I'm like,
oh my god, only seven more weeks of faking like
I'm a normal person so I can get back to
the real life life with football.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
I am. I am six weeks from my younger son
leaving the house for college. I don't need reminders. The
time is passing us by.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
You can't wait, empty nester. It's the best.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
All around, his underwear.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Can't wait.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
I already walk around in my underwear. Today we are
doing a annual summer episode diving into the top ten
fantasy moves of the NFL offseason, and we're going to
bring in the big guns. How do I define the
big guns, you may ask, Well, last week there was
a very special release from the independent website We've saarted
(01:58):
here many many times Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Pros objectively ranks
the projections of the top fantasy football experts in the world.
We cite Fantasy Pros rankings all the time. Gives us
a composite top ten list of the most accurate fantasy
football projections over the past three NFL seasons. That's what
(02:20):
they just released on today's show. We are lucky enough
to have twenty percent of that list on the show.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Two people from that top ten list, you could then
hear them every week talking all things fantasy on Action
Networks Fantasy Flex podcast are beloved colleagues two of the
best in the freaking business. Sean Kerner called the goat
of fantasy projections by fantasy pros last year not to
(02:53):
be done, out done, hot on his heels for goatness,
Chris Ravel, boys, it is so good to see you
you guys.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Do you know you lot me speechless?
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Although Chad, I do agree with you with these countdowns
for the season starting, but I'm I'm also excited for
the start of preseason. I think you're missing out on,
you know, some preseason action too.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
That's true, there is some preseason action. We're going to
get to that. God, I mean, we've probably got preseason
action in three weeks. Listen. I'm glad you guys decided
to speak. That's fantastic. Raybond, Hello, I don't know that
you've had a comment so far, and I know I
didn't ask a question, but we're just conversating here, mister Chad.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
Glad to be back. A little disappointed that the NBA
Finals couldn't go longer, because I think I do even
better on that than I did in fantasy projections, but
excited to get an another season going and hopefully I
can match Sean once again.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Let's dig in, boys, Chris and Shan, you've both compiled
the top ten list of your own outlining the ten
biggest moves of the NFL offseason. Chris Europe, first, I'm
going to ask you give me your biggest move from
the offseason.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
So I think the biggest move is Liam Cohne going
from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville to become the head coach.
He was calling plays in Tampa last year, and I
just think this has the potential to be a massive
upswing for the Jags offense, and it's gonna it could
create massive value for pretty much every single Jags fantasy
(04:44):
player versus their ADP. So last season was Cone's only
season coordinating the Bucks. Running that offense. He took him
from twenty point five points per game in twenty twenty
three to twenty nine point five season. That's a nine
point increase. That's pretty much unheard of. And we already
thought they were, you know, doing well just with Canalis
(05:07):
and they might even take a step back without him.
So Liam Cone did a great job there. I think
Trevor Lawrence could beat his ADPs going around the quarterback twenty.
I think he should be more so a low end
QB one, high m QB two. I have um QB
twelve rookie baseel tooting at running back. I think he
(05:28):
could smash his ADPs going as the running back forty four.
I have them about five spots higher right now, the
ceilings even higher. Brian Thomas Junior has upside to be
the number one wide receiver in the entire NFL this year.
So you know, I know last year, Simon, we're just
talking off air how Sean was super high on him
and he ended up crushing. I don't think it's it's
done now like this this offense, with the potential for
(05:51):
Trevor Lawrence to improve and take a step forward, I
think Thomas has an unlimited ceiling. Even with Travis Hunter there,
best ball, Diami Brown, tight end, Brenton Strange, both of
those guys I think are going to provide some value
as well. But really just loved this cone move. And
if you look at so we look at like, okay,
(06:13):
well what's he gonna do?
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Well?
Speaker 5 (06:14):
I think he helps Trevor Lawrence in four distinct ways
quick passing game. Lawrence was a bottom five in yards
per attempt and throws under two and a half seconds,
So those are kind of, you know, the design throws
and the things that the coordinator could really kind of
scheme up and help the quarterback, you know, kind of
(06:36):
determine where he should go with the ball and get
it out. He wasn't getting any help last year, just
five point one yards in attempt. Baker Mayfield was up
at six point eight. He was top two in yardage
and touchdowns on throws under two and a half route combinations,
scheming guys open in space. Trevor Lawrence four point eight
yards after catch per completion did his receivers average. Field
(07:00):
was up at six point zero, and he had He
took a significant jump from the year before when Cone
wasn't there. In the red zone, Trevor Lawrence has really
struggled his entire career. That's one of the reasons why
he really hasn't broken out twenty percent red zone touchdown
conversion rate. Mayfield went from twenty three percent in twenty
twenty three to thirty seven percent last year. With Cone
(07:23):
and some of the red zone routes and things that
the play calling down there was really really good, I
thought for the Bucks last year. And then the run game.
Cone got guys to buy in. He took a Bucks
run game that you will remember two years twenty two
and twenty three they were bottom of the league and
rushing couldn't do anything. He took an offensive line that
(07:44):
was thirty first in yards before contact to six last year.
And it wasn't just Bucky irving the line. Those are
the yards before contact You're gonna see more reflected in
that number, but it was both of the same tackles,
in the same interior lineman, so three of the same
five linemen starting, and a rookie center. So a lot
(08:05):
of it was just con getting guys to buy in
and switching up the run skins and things, which is
why I also like base Sall tooting the rookie running back.
I think Etn and Bigsby are kind of shaky right now,
like you gotta kind of it's touch and go. I
think one of those guys will probably be a healthy
and active or may end up off the roster by
the time that the season starts. But the reason I
(08:27):
like Tooton is because when you look at Bucky Irving
last year. He was a Day three pick first week
of the season, eleven touches first three weeks, ten touches
per game. So he had a roll right off the
bat in Cone's offense. So did rookie Jalen McMillan eighty
percent snap count right off the bat. So I don't
think they drafted Tooton for no reason. This guy's got
blazing speed. No one's going to be Bucky Irving, but
(08:51):
Tooting's upside, like his ceiling is Bucky Irving. He's going
as the RB forty four. So I just really love
what Con could bring to this entire Jags offerings from
Lawrence to Thomas on down.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Simon, I know you want to you wanna ask Sean
about his top of the board impact move, but let
me ask Chris. Quick follow up for Chris, which is
give me your You know, Simon and I have talked
about our top ten quarterback lists, and we both like
Baker as a top ten quarterback. We both had him
(09:26):
at number ten. You're just talking about how important Liam
Cohane was to Baker's success. How much of an impact
do you think Cone leaving has on Baker's success? This year.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
I think it's gonna be a little bit of a downgrade.
I mean, Baker just put up such an amazing and
not just Baker, that Bucks offense in general, I mean
put up such an amazing season. Chad, you and I
have talked about this, that there's gonna be some natural
regression in that I'm factoring in. I still think Baker
is a top ten fantasy quarterback, but he was a
two by three last year. I think he's gonna be
(09:58):
more towards the low end that QB one, you know,
the middle to the low end, somewhere in that six
to twelve range. I think I have them number six,
so I expect a little bit of regression. You know,
still has a lot of weapons and a decent line.
But Cohn's impact cannot be understated either. So I think
really you're looking at Lawrence kind of closing that gap
(10:21):
to Mayfield, because remember, before con got there, Bayfield was
kind of Lawrence and Mayfield were kind of the same guy.
It was like a guy who's drafted number one overall,
hadn't really broken out, had some shaky coaching throughout much
of his career, some shaky supporting cast, and whatnot. So
I think it really helped Lawrence, but I do expect
Baker to take a bit of a step back just
(10:42):
because it's really hard to put up forty one touchdowns,
you know, year over year. Like so, I think you're
gonna see some regression there, Sean.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
We all know the key to winning leagues, it really
is to heading those late round veterans, right, but it's
also the unknown the rookies. Like that to me, so
many years, I did so well as veteran quarterback, veterans
a certain positions, but I took high risk plays on rookies.
Last year was the freakyer of all years, right, like
these rookies last year, we didn't say anything like that
right between Bowers neighbors, Bucky Jane Daniels, like, we never
(11:15):
had anything like that.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
I love.
Speaker 4 (11:17):
Right away we're talking about Jacksonville. Bring it down to me,
Travis Hunter. What do we think ahead of the season
with him and his value right now, where he's going
at in the drafts?
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Yeah, so, I mean one of the biggest offseason moves
I thought was the Jaguars trading up to get Travis
Hunter with the second overall pick because he is a
true Unicorn player, a two way player at Colorado, and
he's not just like you know, solid okay on both ends.
He was dominant as a wide receiver and a cornerback.
So I mean, he won the Blittnikoff Award as the
(11:48):
nation's top receiver and was named the defensive player of
the Year. So he's similar to Shohey Otawi, where he's
like truly one of the best on both sides, at
least at the collegiate level. We'll see how that translate
to the NFL, but it's just gonna be fascinating to see,
you know, how they plan on using him on offense
and defense.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
I think that that's one of the things I'm gonna
be looking for in training camp.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So you know, right now, he's going around wide receiver
thirty in early drafts, which might be a little too
rich just given just uncertainty on just how much he
will play on offense. He might need to sit some
plays or drives to stay fresh if he's playing a
lot of defense too. So this is one of those
situations where I agree with Raybond where Liam Cohen could really,
(12:31):
you know, create a breakout season for Trevor Lawrence and
then you know, Travis Hunter would probably hit at wide
receiver thirty, but there is some uncertainty here. But I
will say from a personal point of view, I can't
wait to project him the season. We might see the
first ever receptions plus tackles prop we've ever seen with
Travis Hunter. So I'll be waiting for that and I
(12:52):
will bet it even if there's a slight edge one
way or the other. But I can't wait to potentially
have a receptions and tackles prop. So I'm hoping books
are going to, you know, plan offering that market this year.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
Well look last year, Simon said, off the top, you
nailed Brian Thomas right, Like I remember in one of
our preview shows you were talking about Brian Thomas Junior
and his ability to impact the Jags and that you
thought he might be the most important player, most important
receiver drafted in the first round. So you crush that one.
(13:25):
It's interesting to me both you and Sean and I
don't know, are you and Chris and I don't know
if you guys coordinated this have moved to the Jaguars
as your most significant impact offseason moves and as someone
who is thinking about when Simon and I are going
to do our playoff team predictions. The Jags are one
(13:49):
of those teams that I'm struggling with, and all of
a sudden, I'm feeling differently based on what you guys
just said.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Remember, Chad, this is fantasy.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
We're talking here though, just keeping and it's the thing
about the Jags is look at their ADPs. That's really
what it is. Like Simon said, it's about value. They're
likely top running back by the end of the year's
going outside the top forty Travis Hunter. One of the
most talented wide receivers to come out of this you
know of this generation is the wide receiver thirty Brian Thomas,
(14:23):
who has number one overall Fantasy player like Justin Jefferson,
Jamar Chase type upside is going wide receiver eight. Their
tight end is going twentieth, their quarterback is going twentieth.
I mean, everybody is of value in this offense in
terms of their ceiling, and that's what you need in
fantasy ceiling. You don't want to hit on every pick,
but if you hit some ceiling plays, you're good.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Chris, speaking of ceiling, I don't know how much there
is for your next big offseason impact quarterback. But explain
what is next on your board.
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Yeah, so I'm going to groop these three together. Aaron Rodgers,
DK Metcalf, JOHNA. Smith to the Steelers, and I think, listen,
Aaron Rodgers. We know I've been ready to write him
off for ages now he is what he is. But
I do think that this move could be good for
(15:21):
DK Metcalf because you're going to an Arthur Smith's offense.
Remember Arthur Smith. You know Metcalf's playing the position that exposition.
AJ Brown was a top fifteen wide receiver with a
pretty shaky quarterback play in a low volume pass offense
for Arthur Smith. Drake London that was his role as well.
(15:43):
And what we know about Aaron Rodgers is number one,
He's gonna throw a lot of passes. I mean, last
year on the Jets, who were supposed to be like
a good defense or whatever, like, Aaron Rodgers was top
two in the league in pass attempts. So I think
Pittsburgh could throw a little more than then we might
even expect. You know, they have been aggressive at going
(16:03):
out and trying to rebuild their their pass offense. But
also Aaron Rodgers always has an alpha receiver right Like
last season he targeted Garrett Wilson twenty six and a
half percent of his routes before Devonte got there, then
Devonte twenty seven and a half when once he got there.
(16:24):
That's pretty much across the board almost every year, except
I think that one year in Green Bay when guys
were you know, hurt. Aaron Rodgers is gonna just force
feed his number one receivers. So DK Metcalf kind of
got you surfed last year by Jackson Smith Najigba Metcalf. Really,
you know he's it was Lockett and then it was
(16:44):
you know JSN. So Metcalf really hasn't had that opportunity
in a while to be you know this guy that's
that can get you know, a twenty eight thirty percent
target share, but in this offense, he definitely could. So
I think this is good for him and Arthur Smith.
You know, he loves John new Smith. I know, you
know he's been kind of downgraded since since he got there,
(17:06):
but uh, this is this is a guy who he
was a tight end to the number two tight end
behind Kyle Pitts and had a very very good season
and a lot of te one week. So I think
that this, you know, it looks ugly because the Rogers
and you know they have a good defense and this
and that. But especially for Metcalf, I think he's got
(17:28):
significant upside. I wouldn't shy away from him at all.
I think the route combinations that Smith is gonna ask
him to run, they kind of got away from that
in Seattle in these last couple of years. But I
think it really is gonna suit Metcalf particularly well.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Ray Ben, excellent use of the word usurped and we
appreciate you continuing to make this the most literate sports
betting podcast in America.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Sean last year I called my shot on sake. I
remember I came on on the show and I laughed
how I was getting Saquon in the third round in
every league. I couldn't believe it, And I said on
the show I had him at number three, not third
running back, third overall in drafts. And the pushback was
the Hurts Tush push, which I totally understood. But my
(18:16):
pushback was he's going from the Giants offensive line to
the Eagles offensive line. And we saw a playout right,
and even with bad luck, I think there's some crazy stats.
Saquon had ten tackles at the one and he only
scored two of those. The other eight went to Hurtz
this year. My guy, I'm so happy he's on your list.
Genty to the Raiders. Talk about it to me, baby,
(18:36):
I'm all in. Am I crazy for taking him in
their first round? Am I drinking the kool age? Should
I be calming down here?
Speaker 3 (18:41):
What am I seeing?
Speaker 4 (18:42):
The others aren't seen on this kid right now? Because
I love the value he's going for in drafts right now.
You can either get him late first, early second, and
most drafts right now.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
Yeah, no, I don't think you're crazy for taking him.
You know, he's a considered by many a generational running
back talent. I mean he went six overall to the Raiders,
make him just the sixth running back drafted inside the
top ten over the past decade. I mean he led
all of college football and rushing by over six hundred yards,
which you know it's insane production. Sure, he played at
(19:13):
Boise State, so he wasn't you know, facing SEC level
defenses or anything. But when you just look at the
underlying metrics, his measurables back him up as just being
an elite prospect, and I do love this landing spot
as well for you know, for him, but also for
the Raiders. You know, they ranked dead lass in EPA
per rush last year, so that wasn't gonna fly with
(19:36):
new head coach Pete Carroll.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
So he had to get his guy here in the
top ten.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
So he's going to be a workhorse back from day one,
you know, both running the ball and you know, being
on passing downs like he's he's going to catch balls
as well. So that's kind of a rare thing these days.
We have a lot of committees. But he's going to
be a true workhorse back and push you know, top
five value as a rookie. And Chad, I'm thrilled say
(20:01):
you won't need to ask me on the side about
sincere McCormick props this year. No need for that because
this is Gent's backfield. He has zero competition. And again,
as long as he stays healthy, he could push top
five upside here.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
What do you think top five pick by September? Not
five overall?
Speaker 4 (20:19):
Yeah, no, If he has one good preseason game, the
steam is going to be insane.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
That's true, because he probably will get some reps in preseason.
A lot of these vets we won't see in preseason
have those highlight plays, but we could see, you know,
an eighty yard touchdown run by him, and that could
certainly bump him up.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
I think it would take a lot to get him
inside the top five. There's some good receivers.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yeah, you know that it would require to fall out
of the top five, but certainly, you know, top ten
if the hype is there. I could certainly see him,
you know, getting inside the top ten before the season starts.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Turner, I sincerely thank you for allowing me to not
have to ask you about cin Ceramacorna props.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
This gift for both of us, and.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
I thank you for continuing to allow us to make
this the most literate sports betting podcast in America. Ray Bron,
staying on the theme of running backs, give it to me.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
Yeah, so let's talk with Marion Hampton going to the Chargers. Now,
Najie Harris also going to the Chargers from Pittsburgh. I
don't think this is good for Nause. You know, he
was a guy that we could kind of rely on
as run well in running back two in Pittsburgh. You
would always get enough volume ahead of Jalen Warren. But
(21:39):
now I think he's more firmly in that running back
three territory, you know, outside the top thirty. But remember
this is a Greg Roman offense. And last season they
had like the ghost of JK. Dobbins and the ghost
of Gus Edwards, Like those are their two top running backs,
and so I don't think they ran the ball as
(22:00):
much as they even wanted to. And they were still
twelfth in running back carries and seventh in rushing touchdowns
for running backs, And in the thirteen games with Dobbins,
they averaged ten more carries per game for their backs
than they did in the four that he missed. So
Greg Roman, every single year that he's been a coordinator,
(22:22):
his offenses have finished top eleven in rushing attempts, but
really it was top nine and top really top seven
all but two years. And his worst finish was last year,
the first time he finished outside the top ten. And
I think it was because you had, you know, Edwards
really couldn't do anything. Kamani Vidal was nothing, and then
(22:45):
Dobbins got hurt for four games. So I do think
that you're gonna see a significant uptick in rushing attempts
for the Chargers this season, and I think it benefits
Hampton the most. I mean, you don't draft a guy
right there, you know, in the first round if you're
not intending to use him a ton. That's just what
we've seen if you go back and look at, you know,
first round running back picks, especially this day and age,
(23:06):
where you know, the position is a little bit devalued.
This was a deeper running back class. So the fact
that Hampton still went you know, right outside, right there,
outside the top twenty in this draft to the Chargers,
I think is significant. So I like him to to
to be a you know, he has RB one upside.
(23:28):
And remember Dobbins was splitting work with Gus Edwards when
he was healthy too, Like Gus Edwards was hurt some
of the time, but Dobbins and Edwards were kind of
splitting work and Dobbins was still a very very productive,
high upside back last year for the Chargers. So I
think Hampton can kind of slide right in that role
as a younger guy and then Nag He's going to
(23:50):
kind of be an upgrade on Edwards, but that's a
downgrade for Nause. So so I think those two guys
are going in opposite directions, and I'm not even gonna
talk about the duly Fork incident with mister Harris.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
I mean, what the fuck, I'm not a look like
I've made my mistakes with fireworks. I can remind everybody
of the circa nineteen eighty five bottle rocket war that
my friends and I had on the playground at Revenia
(24:24):
Grammar School.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
They had fireworks in nineteen eighty five.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Well we made them at home, excuse matches and cardboard
and hollowed out ski poles. But come on, man, like
you're an adult at this point. You got to know
how to manage the fireworks, especially if you're a professional athlete,
especially when we have professional athlete fireworks cautionary tales stories.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Good god, I have one stupid fireworks story and it's
when I was sixteen, which I I think there's a
cutoff after you're out of it. Once you're into your twenties,
you shouldn't be having stupid fireworks conversations, right child. So
my bad one was had a party in my basement
sixteen years old. Buddy brings over fireworks and we have
the bread idea to throw fireworks at one another in
(25:15):
my basement.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
And again, Simon, that's what I did when I was
fifteen years old on a playground with hollow out ski
poles shooting him at each other.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
And sure enough, pretty drunk someone standing against a couch
and it says I'm kind of hot, and they turn
around in my entire couch was litt up and fire
in my parents' basement and my house is not like
bird plastic for a month, God bless my parents.
Speaker 3 (25:43):
Chad Sean, let's get to you.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
My guys, speaking of speaking of setting stuff on fire, set.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
This is Chad's question. So I'm shocked.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
I'm going that gets to ask it. Ben Johnson the Bears,
how far it up we the fantasy aspect of it
is there are there guys upgrading because of it? Like
give me everything, Ben Johnson, Bears Fantasy Talk.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, so I think this is one of the biggest
offseason moves was, you know, the Bears hiring Ben Johnson
to be the head coach, you know, after he was
the Lion's offensive coordinator the past three seasons led them
to be one of the top offenses in the league.
I mean, he's just like a really creative play caller,
(26:29):
really innovative. I think he's gonna be able to maximize
this offense, which you know has a handful of fantasy
relevant players, but it starts with Kaya Williams, who was
last year's number one overall pick, who had a very
up and down rookie season. You know, sure some of
that you could blame on Caleb, but I think a
(26:51):
lot of it had to do with poor coaching, and
his offensive line didn't help either.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
He took sixty eight sacks.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I mean, if you watch any Bears game, you knew
that was the big issue, was all those sacks. But
according to the underlying metrics, he was responsible for about
forty five percent of those sacks, which is right in
line with league average. So I think just with improved
offensive line, you know, they signed a handful of veterans
this year, should improve the offensive line. But I think
(27:17):
you know, Ben Johnson's ability to scheme plays should help Caleb.
You know, the first read will be open, so that's gonna,
you know, help prevent a lot of these detrimental sacks
and throwing the ball away things like that. So I
think that's gonna help A ton. I was also pleased
to see you know, they they drafted two quality pass
catchers in the draft in Luther Burton Colson Lovelin, who
(27:38):
I love heading into the draft. He gives me Jimmy
Graham vibes like he's gonna be a legit tight end,
and I just love the fact that he landed with
Ben Johnson. If you remember a couple years ago, I
was all worked up that Sam Alporta got drafted by
the Lions in the second round and he broke the
rookie record for receptions this season until Brock Bauers broke
(27:58):
it last year. But still it goes to show that
just a really good tight end can excel as a
rookie in this offense. So, you know, Loveland's a guy
I've been attacking at the you know, late tight end
one range. I think it's a great landing spot for
him on the flip side. There could be a ripple
effect here. You know, the Lions offense has been damn
(28:19):
near perfect these last couple of seasons. So if we
see any regression, which is just probably coming no matter what,
I think, people will kind of point to Ben Johnson
being gone being the reason why. So I think just
it was a massive coaching move that impacts half of
the you know, the NFC North. So I think this
is just a massive, massive offseason move, and you know,
(28:41):
it gives me confidence. Klem Williams having a year two breakout,
you know, I like Dj Moore, Rumba Doonsay could bounce
back this year. So it has a ton of fantasy implications.
And you know a lot of people are very optimistic
about the Bears this year. I know that scares you, Chad,
but I think I think it's warranted.
Speaker 5 (28:58):
Here, don't forget about the line. They redid their entire interior.
Joe Tooney, Drew Dowmon, those were both Toony was number
seven out of seventy seven guards, Dowman was number four
out of forty centers. And Jonah Jackson greatered highly as well.
So you have that interior line. So don't even sleep
on a guy like DeAndre Swift. Like, you know, like
(29:19):
this whole offense I think could take a step forward.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
To Shawn's point, Number one, excellent point, Chris Raybond, I
was going to say that offensive line, it could be,
it will be much improved, could be a top five
offensive line. Number one, Number two, Roomadunze doesn't need to
bounce back. Roumadunze had a productive rookie season in a
(29:42):
very challenging offensive environment in which his quarterback was constantly
struggling and a little bit playing hero ball and didn't
quite have the touch on some of the passes that
went to room Madonze that he probably should have had
and they probably developed better chemistry. Also, don't forget he
had a terrible offensive core, a terrible head coach, and
until the middle of the season none of this was
(30:04):
going to get fixed. And then they just put everything
in place to have the placeholder for the rest of
the year. So like, I couldn't be more confident right now,
which does not bode well for any of this. Love
the Coast and Loveland pick. Love the Luther Burden pick.
When Luther Burden was drafted, that was what was lighting
(30:25):
up the Chicago Friends text chain was oh my god,
we got Luther Burden. To me, this is a guy
with so much upside who got dropped a little bit
because for a variety of non football reasons in the draft.
Ryan Poles just got a five year contract extension, and
I think the enthusiasm of the moment is what got
(30:47):
him that deal because he'd been able to draft so
much talent and make some decent moves made vering the
pieces on the board. So yeah, the Bears. I think
it's another one talking about the playoffs, Like Simon, I'm
trying to figure out. Am I being over optimistic with
the Bears? Do I see the regression with the Lions?
(31:08):
How does Jordan Love and the Packers play into this?
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Well, it's tough, I would say, because your division and
the fact that we know that Caleb had a wasted year,
like the man had no one watch a film, no
one was coaching him last year. Like I'm with you,
I wanted to be all in on the Bears. To me,
this is like the true rookie year for Caleb. Let
him comfortable on the offense. But me and Chat talk
all the time that year to jump. Caleb has all
(31:32):
the time in the world. Him and Ben Johnson if
they're in kapatico in sink, Chad, I mean, I'm with you, Like,
if you guys have an eight and one start nine
and two, holy shit, Bears fans go crazy just because
you finally have the quarterback and you have the coach.
I get why you're at you're at the very edge
of not just going absolutely in sand right now because
(31:52):
the upside is so excited for this Bears offense.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
Get ready for misery. What do you got next?
Speaker 5 (32:00):
Periods added a rookie running back Travion Henderson. He is
extremely fast. I think he could be kind of like
that when those James White seasons, like when James White
was a monster. That's that's Henderson's upside in this offense.
And then Stefan Diggs, you know, it's kind of going
under the radar. And yes, he's coming off an injury
(32:22):
and he's going to a new team, but he's going
outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts. And remember
this is you know, Josh McDaniel's coming back here. He
had a kind of aging guy in DeVante Adams a
couple of years ago his first year when he went
to the Raiders and they just targeted him to It
(32:42):
was just they just forced fed him the ball. So
I think with a guy like Drake may number one,
I think Henderson and Diggs increased the likelihood that Drake
may can take, you know, somewhat of a step forward
in a year two. Now it's you know, still learning
a new offense. So I'm not gonna say he's gonna
be like a bona fide quarterback one, but he does
have that kind of upside because he can run it too.
(33:04):
And he just had the worst supporting cast, just guys
who really couldn't create much of anything for him, uh
last season. So just adding a guy like Diggs Henderson.
You also added Kyle Williams in the draft. You know,
Jerry's out on him, but he should. He should get
a chance to play some meaningful snaps as well. So
just uh an improved supporting cast from May. I think
(33:25):
he has, Uh, he's a great quarterback two option that
that you can kind of get if your weight and gigs.
I think people are underestimating Diggs because you know, maybe
his median projection is you know around you know that
that low end wide receiver three range, but uh, his
ceiling is still much higher. He could be an absolute
(33:46):
target monster in this offense because the drop off from
Diggs to everybody else, I mean it's there's no real
context there. So UH really like Diggs and then and
then Henderson is a guy who uh maybe used in
that you know, kind of James White roll and it
also is creating a little bit of value I think
on Rimandre Stevenson as well, because uh, you know where
(34:08):
he's going, like outside the top forty at running back,
he could still be the lead back, and Henderson you know,
could get you know, a lot of his touches in
the receiving game as well. So I do think there's
some intrigue here. And this is another one of these
offenses where people just don't really know what to do
with it, and so all these guys are kind of
going like there's no one really going that high in drafts.
(34:31):
But I think Drake May is an extremely talented quarterback
and you know, just going to a competent offense with
a competent supporting cast this year, the old line should
be better to should should be night and day for
Drake May, even though you know that he's kind of
going to that McDaniel's offense, which is is a new offense.
But I really think Stefan Diggs is being being underrated.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
Here, quick, Paul, before we get before Simon, you ask
coroner his next this next question. Quick, I've set a
line in my head of how many wins Mike Vrabel
will be responsible for this season because of excellent, thoughtful
(35:15):
coaching decisions. I've got the line in my head. I
will tell you if you've gone over under after everyone
gives me their answer, Simon, give me your answer. How
many wins is Mike Rabel personally responsible for because of
strategic decisions?
Speaker 3 (35:29):
Cruner, I'm gonna go with your line is exactly one
and a half.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
I like where you're hat you're at. You're wrong, but
give me your answer.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Yeah, I'll say one.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Huh interesting, Okay, Ray Buon, I.
Speaker 5 (35:46):
Would put the line at two and a half. You're
in a division with the Jets, baby and Dolphins and
the Dolphins, So.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
What's your number on how many wins he gets you?
Speaker 5 (35:58):
I mean, I think I think it's gonna be too
like realistically, like if you look at his like the
pittagger and wins versus actual he's usually above, you know,
overperformed somewhere in that ring. So yeah, I wouldn't see
it out of the question. He's definitely adding at least
at least one, but I do think he can add
multiple So I'm gonna go somewhere between two and three.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
My line was two and a half and my expectation
was three. There you go, Chris RAYBN and I as
usual a midseason mind meld. Simon, take it.
Speaker 4 (36:33):
Away, show you have another great name on the list here.
Speaker 3 (36:36):
I am an another one calling my shot.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
I am down on Puoka. To me, he's one of
the most overdrafted players right now in fancy football. Would
not be taking Puoka in the first round. You're out
of your mind. You're taking a guy with his injury risk.
No one's down to talent. It just cann you stay
healthy now, he's no doubt Number one. Break it down
to me, Devanta Adams, I am draft him in every league.
I'm all in on Devanti Atam.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Sim and Stafford.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
To me, that's the perfect mix in this McVay offense
of schemed open receiver and his style where he is
so smooth, still still got at his old age.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
I mean shocking.
Speaker 4 (37:12):
He could burn corners young twenty one year olds last
year on the Jets, even more motivated this season. Where
are you at with Dwatt the Adams in the Rams?
Speaker 2 (37:21):
So first off, I'm not low on Pooka at all,
that's all you. But I'm in agreement, I've been agreement
with you that this is a good fit. You know,
DeVante going to the Rams with McVeigh. You know, this
is a third team in the last twelve months, so
I think people are sick of just projecting him on
new teams. That's why this might be flying under the
radar a bit. Plus, you know, he's thirty two, so
(37:42):
he's clearly in the decline phase of his career. But
he looked great last year, so I think he still
has one or two really solid seasons left at least.
But I think this is this is a great landing
spot for you know, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense,
who really struggled in goal to goal gold to go.
Speaker 3 (38:00):
Situations last year.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
Stafford only completed forty one percent of his passes in
gold to go situations, which is thirty second out of
forty one quarterbacks. So he only threw twenty touchdowns, which
is the fewest in any season of his career where
he's played fifteen plus games. So that's where I think
Adams can immediately make an impact just being you know,
(38:23):
elite end zone threat for him. So you know, it's
gonna help boost the incoming positive touch on aggression. But
I think it's gonna help this offense because you know,
Pooka Niku is great getting the ball down the field
and into the red zone, but he hasn't been much
of a touchdown guy. And you know, Cooper Cup hate
to say it, but he was sort of washed last
year and he was banged up, so Stafford didn't really
(38:45):
have that second option like he typically does. So that's
where Adams is gonna step up. And this this is
really huge for Matthew Stafford, I think, and I can't
go a whole show without a player prop, so I
would say that the actual advice here is Matthew Stafford's
passing touchdown prop is twenty two and a half.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
I think that's a couple touchdowns too low.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
So I'm taking that over because he is due for
some positive touchdown regression solely due to you know, Devonte
Adams being in the mix this year.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
Well Snon loves Matthew Stafford, loves Matthew Stafford, raybond to that.
Speaker 5 (39:18):
Well baby, don't forget about him. He's gonna see, he's
gonna he's gonna be a full time player this year.
Got that ten million dollar deal. So I'm taking a
lot of him in Best Ball as well.
Speaker 1 (39:27):
Adam is Old speaking of receivers and.
Speaker 5 (39:30):
Pukah's injury prone to your points.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
Raybon, speaking of receivers, Will Matthew be golden in Green Bay?
Speaker 5 (39:40):
I think so. I think this golden draft pick for
the Packers has the potential to kind of not only
work for him in particular, I think he could be
the Packers number one wide receiver this year. I know
he's kind of going outside the top forty, right outside
the top forty. A lot of people, you know, not
(40:01):
sure exactly what his role is going to be. But
everything the Packers have done over the last year or
so in terms of their front office moves at the
receiver position and just you know, in play calling have
kind of told us they just didn't like their receiver
room last year. And I think they're looking for a
(40:23):
new number one type of guy because if you look
at last year, they really did not throw the football
with Jordan Love. And if you look at Jordan Love's
efficiency metrics, Jordan Love was top five almost across the board.
So Jordan Love really didn't fall off. It wasn't so
much of like, oh, let's high Jordan Love. I know
(40:43):
he had some interception issues at one point. But he
was still excellent in all the you know, important metrics.
He just didn't really throw a lot of passes. And
you saw Watson, they were trying to increase his snaps.
He got hurt again. Now he's probably out for at
least half to see and I think he said he
wasn't going to come back to like WE twelve or
something like that. Uh. And you look at you know,
(41:07):
Romeo Doves. They hasn't had one hundred yard receiving game
in the regular season. Uh, you know that's their guy.
That's the guy that was getting the most snaps for them.
Jayden Reid, like his agent or somebody had to come
out and say he's their number one receiver. This guy
got four and a half four point four targets per
game last year. That's their supposed number one receiver. Like
(41:28):
I think Golden has a massive, massive opportunity right from
the jump. Dantavian Wicks runs good routes, comes down to
catch the ball. He doesn't do it. And every time
guys have been healthy, Wicks plays like five percent of snap.
So they're telling us they want they see him as
a number four or five guy. Bo Melton, who had
some moments they they they're playing him at cornerback like
(41:50):
they just did not they were not feeling it. So
I think the you know, with Golden in tow, I
think they their volume could increase this year, their pass volume.
And I think, you know, with Jordan Love, those are
the kind of throws he could make down the field.
Really hasn't had a guy quite like that. You know,
Watson was kind of a speed guy down the field,
(42:11):
a little bit of different player, but they really haven't
had a guy like Golden, you know, for Jordan Love.
So I think it could increase the value of Golden himself.
I think he's going to be the number one when
it's all said and done. But I also think Dayden
Reed could take a step forward in terms of his
numbers just because the Packers are going to pass more
so even if reasons not the number one, and he
could be, but even like he's also going outside the
(42:34):
top forty now. So I think you have value on
both of those guys. Just because Golden has been added
to the mix. I think it left them play Dobbs
a little bit less than May and it lets them
play Wicks a little bit less. So they're gonna have
a very talented receiving corps. Jordan Love was you know,
very very good last year. Eight point zero yards per
(42:54):
attempt that was fifth in the league. You know, his
QBR sixty nine point three, that was fifth in the league.
So you just add some some volume there. And I
think these Packers receivers, these top two guys reading Golden
are gonna eat regardless. So I really like this move
for Golden, but I think the path is wide open
(43:15):
for him to be that number one because you know,
Dobbs really isn't that guy Wix. They don't really want
to play like that, and and reed they they only
play him in three wide personnel. So I think that
will increase this year because I think they throw more,
but that they've pretty much capped his snaps two years
straight and now they went out and got you know,
(43:38):
a guy who in the first round. So I think
that this this is a significant move. I think, you know,
when you look at number one receivers like they have,
they've had a you know, a twenty percent of them
have ended up finishing as a wide receiver one that
go in the first round. So it depends on the
class year year over year. But I think people are
(43:59):
kind of sweep on this year's class because they got
drafted into, you know, these crowded spots in terms of
you know, Abuka, Matthew Golden. But with Golden especially, he
has the quarterback and he has the pass to be
their number one and that's all you can ask for
when you're drafting a guy as your wide receiver. For so,
I think Golden is a smash, and I think Reed
(44:21):
is undervalued as well, and Jordan loves as well.
Speaker 1 (44:24):
Seems like a golden opportunity to find some upside, doesn't it.
Simon Sean, we got to talk about it.
Speaker 4 (44:36):
No comment the Texans. Who the hell is catching the
ball for the Texans that coming season? We know CJ's
been putting the ball downfield. He can make nobody's into somebody.
Who is the steel of the draft this year for
this Texas receiver crew.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
Yeah, so my first four we're just big moves. I'm
not saying I'm drafting a ton of those storylines. This
is a guy I am drafting a ton of. So
it's Jayden Higgins going to the Texans in round two.
I just love that landing spot. And you know they
already have Nico Collins, who is I consider one of
the best receivers in the league. So Higgins ceiling is still,
(45:11):
you know, just the number two receiver on this team.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
But I think, you know, CJ.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Stroud should bounce back here in year three, and this
offense is more than capable of supporting two, you know,
high end, fancy wide receivers. And I just love Higgins
as a prospect. You know, he's a bigger receiver, six'
four two fifteen, pounds really good, measurables really good at
catching the. Ball he had one of the lowest drop
(45:35):
rates in college last. Year and, ironically Like, mike comp for.
HIM i tried to find somebody else because this seems,
lazy but IT'S T. HIGGINS i, mean no, relation but
they're almost like. Identical and my my comp For Brian
thomas junior Is Randy. MOSS i couldn't find anybody else
to comp for, him So i'm just sticking WITH. T
higgins being my comp For Jaden. Higgins SO i, think you,
(45:56):
Know stroud could have a high quality number two two wide,
receiver AND i know they brought In Christian, kirk you,
know who could soak up some targets but we have
to remember they did Lose Stefan, diggs and you, Know
Tank dell had that very unfortunate leg entry at the
end of the season last, year so he's probably gonna
miss the entire. Season so there is room For higgins
to be the number two. Target and you, know defenses
(46:19):
they have to pay attention To Nico collins double team
him at, times SO i Think higgins could make him.
Pay so he's being drafted just outside the top fifty
wide receivers right, now and that's like the perfect range
to take a rookie wide receiver THAT i, think you,
know people are still. Overlooking he's a guy THAT i
could see making a couple splash plays in preseason and
have HIS adp shoot. Up So i've been trying to
(46:40):
get ahead of that and Drafting, higgins you, know as
much AS i can these early.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
Drafts all, right let me recap the top ten offseason
moves according To Fantasy pros top ten player projection Experts
Sean kerner And Chris. Raybond chris said that his biggest
move was head Coach Liam cohen to The Jacksonville. Jaguars
(47:06):
sean's biggest Move Travis hunter to The Jacksonville. Jaguars chris
also likes the combination Of Aaron, RODGERS Dk, Metcalf john
New smith to The Pittsburgh. Steelers kerner Loves Ashton genty
to The, Raiders Chris Omario hampton And Nijee harris to The.
(47:27):
Chargers kerner kind of an obvious captain Obvious Ben johnson
to The, bears not hating. It Chris Traveon henderson and
stuff On diggs gets To New, england although the biggest
impact move there is still going to Be Mike rabel
Coloner DeVante adams to The, Rams Chris Matthew golden receiver
(47:47):
to The, Packers Coloner Jaden higgins receiver to The. Texans
get more of this fabulous content and information to win
all all of your, leagues whatever your plan on The
Fantasy Flex podcast With kerner And raybon The. Favorites we'll
(48:09):
return with our next Episode thursday on The Action network
YouTube page when we TALK Nfl Training camp. Questions download
us From, Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your, pods rate, review,
subscribe leave us five, stars say whatever you want feedback
as a Gift until next, Time love, You Action network
(48:33):
reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you or someone you
care about has a gambling, problem Help us available twenty
four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad, moment of the Action Network.
Let's get to it, folks. We're going to welcome in
my co host, my companion, Micah Badra, my BFF, professional
matter sign man Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
No.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
So I'm in Chad. Another week closer to football, brother.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
We're getting there. What I don't like, here's what I
don't like. I don't like when people are like, only
four more Sundays to kick off, Because the truth is,
I also like my Sundays as they are right now.
Like the other day, it was Sunday I was reading,
you know, at like eleven o'clock and it was stress free,
(00:50):
and I thought to myself, very soon, my Sundays are
not going to be stress free and they're going to
be super busy. So as much as I'm looking forward
to the season and what we're doing today, I don't
want people like counting me down.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
You know what I mean that tweets not for you?
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Then I need to countdown because I get lost in
the summer where I'm just got ahead of my own ass,
and all of a sudden I see that I'm like,
oh my god, only seven more weeks of faking like
I'm a normal person so I can get back to
the real life life with football.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
I am. I am six weeks from my younger son
leaving the house for college. I don't need reminders. The
time is passing us by.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
You can't wait, empty nester. It's the best.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
All around, his underwear.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Can't wait.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
I already walk around in my underwear. Today we are
doing a annual summer episode diving into the top ten
fantasy moves of the NFL offseason, and we're going to
bring in the big guns. How do I define the
big guns, you may ask, Well, last week there was
a very special release from the independent website We've saarted
(01:58):
here many many times Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Pros objectively ranks
the projections of the top fantasy football experts in the world.
We cite Fantasy Pros rankings all the time. Gives us
a composite top ten list of the most accurate fantasy
football projections over the past three NFL seasons. That's what
(02:20):
they just released on today's show. We are lucky enough
to have twenty percent of that list on the show.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Two people from that top ten list, you could then
hear them every week talking all things fantasy on Action
Networks Fantasy Flex podcast are beloved colleagues two of the
best in the freaking business. Sean Kerner called the goat
of fantasy projections by fantasy pros last year not to
(02:53):
be done, out done, hot on his heels for goatness,
Chris Ravel, boys, it is so good to see you
you guys.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Do you know you lot me speechless?
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Although Chad, I do agree with you with these countdowns
for the season starting, but I'm I'm also excited for
the start of preseason. I think you're missing out on,
you know, some preseason action too.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
That's true, there is some preseason action. We're going to
get to that. God, I mean, we've probably got preseason
action in three weeks. Listen. I'm glad you guys decided
to speak. That's fantastic. Raybond, Hello, I don't know that
you've had a comment so far, and I know I
didn't ask a question, but we're just conversating here, mister Chad.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
Glad to be back. A little disappointed that the NBA
Finals couldn't go longer, because I think I do even
better on that than I did in fantasy projections, but
excited to get an another season going and hopefully I
can match Sean once again.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Let's dig in, boys, Chris and Shan, you've both compiled
the top ten list of your own outlining the ten
biggest moves of the NFL offseason. Chris Europe, first, I'm
going to ask you give me your biggest move from
the offseason.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
So I think the biggest move is Liam Cohne going
from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville to become the head coach.
He was calling plays in Tampa last year, and I
just think this has the potential to be a massive
upswing for the Jags offense, and it's gonna it could
create massive value for pretty much every single Jags fantasy
(04:44):
player versus their ADP. So last season was Cone's only
season coordinating the Bucks. Running that offense. He took him
from twenty point five points per game in twenty twenty
three to twenty nine point five season. That's a nine
point increase. That's pretty much unheard of. And we already
thought they were, you know, doing well just with Canalis
(05:07):
and they might even take a step back without him.
So Liam Cone did a great job there. I think
Trevor Lawrence could beat his ADPs going around the quarterback twenty.
I think he should be more so a low end
QB one, high m QB two. I have um QB
twelve rookie baseel tooting at running back. I think he
(05:28):
could smash his ADPs going as the running back forty four.
I have them about five spots higher right now, the
ceilings even higher. Brian Thomas Junior has upside to be
the number one wide receiver in the entire NFL this year.
So you know, I know last year, Simon, we're just
talking off air how Sean was super high on him
and he ended up crushing. I don't think it's it's
done now like this this offense, with the potential for
(05:51):
Trevor Lawrence to improve and take a step forward, I
think Thomas has an unlimited ceiling. Even with Travis Hunter there,
best ball, Diami Brown, tight end, Brenton Strange, both of
those guys I think are going to provide some value
as well. But really just loved this cone move. And
if you look at so we look at like, okay,
(06:13):
well what's he gonna do?
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Well?
Speaker 5 (06:14):
I think he helps Trevor Lawrence in four distinct ways
quick passing game. Lawrence was a bottom five in yards
per attempt and throws under two and a half seconds,
So those are kind of, you know, the design throws
and the things that the coordinator could really kind of
scheme up and help the quarterback, you know, kind of
(06:36):
determine where he should go with the ball and get
it out. He wasn't getting any help last year, just
five point one yards in attempt. Baker Mayfield was up
at six point eight. He was top two in yardage
and touchdowns on throws under two and a half route combinations,
scheming guys open in space. Trevor Lawrence four point eight
yards after catch per completion did his receivers average. Field
(07:00):
was up at six point zero, and he had He
took a significant jump from the year before when Cone
wasn't there. In the red zone, Trevor Lawrence has really
struggled his entire career. That's one of the reasons why
he really hasn't broken out twenty percent red zone touchdown
conversion rate. Mayfield went from twenty three percent in twenty
twenty three to thirty seven percent last year. With Cone
(07:23):
and some of the red zone routes and things that
the play calling down there was really really good, I
thought for the Bucks last year. And then the run game.
Cone got guys to buy in. He took a Bucks
run game that you will remember two years twenty two
and twenty three they were bottom of the league and
rushing couldn't do anything. He took an offensive line that
(07:44):
was thirty first in yards before contact to six last year.
And it wasn't just Bucky irving the line. Those are
the yards before contact You're gonna see more reflected in
that number, but it was both of the same tackles,
in the same interior lineman, so three of the same
five linemen starting, and a rookie center. So a lot
(08:05):
of it was just con getting guys to buy in
and switching up the run skins and things, which is
why I also like base Sall tooting the rookie running back.
I think Etn and Bigsby are kind of shaky right now,
like you gotta kind of it's touch and go. I
think one of those guys will probably be a healthy
and active or may end up off the roster by
the time that the season starts. But the reason I
(08:27):
like Tooton is because when you look at Bucky Irving
last year. He was a Day three pick first week
of the season, eleven touches first three weeks, ten touches
per game. So he had a roll right off the
bat in Cone's offense. So did rookie Jalen McMillan eighty
percent snap count right off the bat. So I don't
think they drafted Tooton for no reason. This guy's got
blazing speed. No one's going to be Bucky Irving, but
(08:51):
Tooting's upside, like his ceiling is Bucky Irving. He's going
as the RB forty four. So I just really love
what Con could bring to this entire Jags offerings from
Lawrence to Thomas on down.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Simon, I know you want to you wanna ask Sean
about his top of the board impact move, but let
me ask Chris. Quick follow up for Chris, which is
give me your You know, Simon and I have talked
about our top ten quarterback lists, and we both like
Baker as a top ten quarterback. We both had him
(09:26):
at number ten. You're just talking about how important Liam
Cohane was to Baker's success. How much of an impact
do you think Cone leaving has on Baker's success? This year.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
I think it's gonna be a little bit of a downgrade.
I mean, Baker just put up such an amazing and
not just Baker, that Bucks offense in general, I mean
put up such an amazing season. Chad, you and I
have talked about this, that there's gonna be some natural
regression in that I'm factoring in. I still think Baker
is a top ten fantasy quarterback, but he was a
two by three last year. I think he's gonna be
(09:58):
more towards the low end that QB one, you know,
the middle to the low end, somewhere in that six
to twelve range. I think I have them number six,
so I expect a little bit of regression. You know,
still has a lot of weapons and a decent line.
But Cohn's impact cannot be understated either. So I think
really you're looking at Lawrence kind of closing that gap
(10:21):
to Mayfield, because remember, before con got there, Bayfield was
kind of Lawrence and Mayfield were kind of the same guy.
It was like a guy who's drafted number one overall,
hadn't really broken out, had some shaky coaching throughout much
of his career, some shaky supporting cast, and whatnot. So
I think it really helped Lawrence, but I do expect
Baker to take a bit of a step back just
(10:42):
because it's really hard to put up forty one touchdowns,
you know, year over year. Like so, I think you're
gonna see some regression there, Sean.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
We all know the key to winning leagues, it really
is to heading those late round veterans, right, but it's
also the unknown the rookies. Like that to me, so
many years, I did so well as veteran quarterback, veterans
a certain positions, but I took high risk plays on rookies.
Last year was the freakyer of all years, right, like
these rookies last year, we didn't say anything like that
right between Bowers neighbors, Bucky Jane Daniels, like, we never
(11:15):
had anything like that.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
I love.
Speaker 4 (11:17):
Right away we're talking about Jacksonville. Bring it down to me,
Travis Hunter. What do we think ahead of the season
with him and his value right now, where he's going
at in the drafts?
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Yeah, so, I mean one of the biggest offseason moves
I thought was the Jaguars trading up to get Travis
Hunter with the second overall pick because he is a
true Unicorn player, a two way player at Colorado, and
he's not just like you know, solid okay on both ends.
He was dominant as a wide receiver and a cornerback.
So I mean, he won the Blittnikoff Award as the
(11:48):
nation's top receiver and was named the defensive player of
the Year. So he's similar to Shohey Otawi, where he's
like truly one of the best on both sides, at
least at the collegiate level. We'll see how that translate
to the NFL, but it's just gonna be fascinating to see,
you know, how they plan on using him on offense
and defense.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
I think that that's one of the things I'm gonna
be looking for in training camp.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So you know, right now, he's going around wide receiver
thirty in early drafts, which might be a little too
rich just given just uncertainty on just how much he
will play on offense. He might need to sit some
plays or drives to stay fresh if he's playing a
lot of defense too. So this is one of those
situations where I agree with Raybond where Liam Cohen could really,
(12:31):
you know, create a breakout season for Trevor Lawrence and
then you know, Travis Hunter would probably hit at wide
receiver thirty, but there is some uncertainty here. But I
will say from a personal point of view, I can't
wait to project him the season. We might see the
first ever receptions plus tackles prop we've ever seen with
Travis Hunter. So I'll be waiting for that and I
(12:52):
will bet it even if there's a slight edge one
way or the other. But I can't wait to potentially
have a receptions and tackles prop. So I'm hoping books
are going to, you know, plan offering that market this year.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
Well look last year, Simon said, off the top, you
nailed Brian Thomas right, Like I remember in one of
our preview shows you were talking about Brian Thomas Junior
and his ability to impact the Jags and that you
thought he might be the most important player, most important
receiver drafted in the first round. So you crush that one.
(13:25):
It's interesting to me both you and Sean and I
don't know, are you and Chris and I don't know
if you guys coordinated this have moved to the Jaguars
as your most significant impact offseason moves and as someone
who is thinking about when Simon and I are going
to do our playoff team predictions. The Jags are one
(13:49):
of those teams that I'm struggling with, and all of
a sudden, I'm feeling differently based on what you guys
just said.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Remember, Chad, this is fantasy.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
We're talking here though, just keeping and it's the thing
about the Jags is look at their ADPs. That's really
what it is. Like Simon said, it's about value. They're
likely top running back by the end of the year's
going outside the top forty Travis Hunter. One of the
most talented wide receivers to come out of this you
know of this generation is the wide receiver thirty Brian Thomas,
(14:23):
who has number one overall Fantasy player like Justin Jefferson,
Jamar Chase type upside is going wide receiver eight. Their
tight end is going twentieth, their quarterback is going twentieth.
I mean, everybody is of value in this offense in
terms of their ceiling, and that's what you need in
fantasy ceiling. You don't want to hit on every pick,
but if you hit some ceiling plays, you're good.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Chris, speaking of ceiling, I don't know how much there
is for your next big offseason impact quarterback. But explain
what is next on your board.
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Yeah, so I'm going to groop these three together. Aaron Rodgers,
DK Metcalf, JOHNA. Smith to the Steelers, and I think, listen,
Aaron Rodgers. We know I've been ready to write him
off for ages now he is what he is. But
I do think that this move could be good for
(15:21):
DK Metcalf because you're going to an Arthur Smith's offense.
Remember Arthur Smith. You know Metcalf's playing the position that exposition.
AJ Brown was a top fifteen wide receiver with a
pretty shaky quarterback play in a low volume pass offense
for Arthur Smith. Drake London that was his role as well.
(15:43):
And what we know about Aaron Rodgers is number one,
He's gonna throw a lot of passes. I mean, last
year on the Jets, who were supposed to be like
a good defense or whatever, like, Aaron Rodgers was top
two in the league in pass attempts. So I think
Pittsburgh could throw a little more than then we might
even expect. You know, they have been aggressive at going
(16:03):
out and trying to rebuild their their pass offense. But
also Aaron Rodgers always has an alpha receiver right Like
last season he targeted Garrett Wilson twenty six and a
half percent of his routes before Devonte got there, then
Devonte twenty seven and a half when once he got there.
(16:24):
That's pretty much across the board almost every year, except
I think that one year in Green Bay when guys
were you know, hurt. Aaron Rodgers is gonna just force
feed his number one receivers. So DK Metcalf kind of
got you surfed last year by Jackson Smith Najigba Metcalf. Really,
you know he's it was Lockett and then it was
(16:44):
you know JSN. So Metcalf really hasn't had that opportunity
in a while to be you know this guy that's
that can get you know, a twenty eight thirty percent
target share, but in this offense, he definitely could. So
I think this is good for him and Arthur Smith.
You know, he loves John new Smith. I know, you
know he's been kind of downgraded since since he got there,
(17:06):
but uh, this is this is a guy who he
was a tight end to the number two tight end
behind Kyle Pitts and had a very very good season
and a lot of te one week. So I think
that this, you know, it looks ugly because the Rogers
and you know they have a good defense and this
and that. But especially for Metcalf, I think he's got
(17:28):
significant upside. I wouldn't shy away from him at all.
I think the route combinations that Smith is gonna ask
him to run, they kind of got away from that
in Seattle in these last couple of years. But I
think it really is gonna suit Metcalf particularly well.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Ray Ben, excellent use of the word usurped and we
appreciate you continuing to make this the most literate sports
betting podcast in America.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Sean last year I called my shot on sake. I
remember I came on on the show and I laughed
how I was getting Saquon in the third round in
every league. I couldn't believe it, And I said on
the show I had him at number three, not third
running back, third overall in drafts. And the pushback was
the Hurts Tush push, which I totally understood. But my
(18:16):
pushback was he's going from the Giants offensive line to
the Eagles offensive line. And we saw a playout right,
and even with bad luck, I think there's some crazy stats.
Saquon had ten tackles at the one and he only
scored two of those. The other eight went to Hurtz
this year. My guy, I'm so happy he's on your list.
Genty to the Raiders. Talk about it to me, baby,
(18:36):
I'm all in. Am I crazy for taking him in
their first round? Am I drinking the kool age? Should
I be calming down here?
Speaker 3 (18:41):
What am I seeing?
Speaker 4 (18:42):
The others aren't seen on this kid right now? Because
I love the value he's going for in drafts right now.
You can either get him late first, early second, and
most drafts right now.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
Yeah, no, I don't think you're crazy for taking him.
You know, he's a considered by many a generational running
back talent. I mean he went six overall to the Raiders,
make him just the sixth running back drafted inside the
top ten over the past decade. I mean he led
all of college football and rushing by over six hundred yards,
which you know it's insane production. Sure, he played at
(19:13):
Boise State, so he wasn't you know, facing SEC level
defenses or anything. But when you just look at the
underlying metrics, his measurables back him up as just being
an elite prospect, and I do love this landing spot
as well for you know, for him, but also for
the Raiders. You know, they ranked dead lass in EPA
per rush last year, so that wasn't gonna fly with
(19:36):
new head coach Pete Carroll.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
So he had to get his guy here in the
top ten.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
So he's going to be a workhorse back from day one,
you know, both running the ball and you know, being
on passing downs like he's he's going to catch balls
as well. So that's kind of a rare thing these days.
We have a lot of committees. But he's going to
be a true workhorse back and push you know, top
five value as a rookie. And Chad, I'm thrilled say
(20:01):
you won't need to ask me on the side about
sincere McCormick props this year. No need for that because
this is Gent's backfield. He has zero competition. And again,
as long as he stays healthy, he could push top
five upside here.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
What do you think top five pick by September? Not
five overall?
Speaker 4 (20:19):
Yeah, no, If he has one good preseason game, the
steam is going to be insane.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
That's true, because he probably will get some reps in preseason.
A lot of these vets we won't see in preseason
have those highlight plays, but we could see, you know,
an eighty yard touchdown run by him, and that could
certainly bump him up.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
I think it would take a lot to get him
inside the top five. There's some good receivers.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yeah, you know that it would require to fall out
of the top five, but certainly, you know, top ten
if the hype is there. I could certainly see him,
you know, getting inside the top ten before the season starts.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Turner, I sincerely thank you for allowing me to not
have to ask you about cin Ceramacorna props.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
This gift for both of us, and.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
I thank you for continuing to allow us to make
this the most literate sports betting podcast in America. Ray Bron,
staying on the theme of running backs, give it to me.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
Yeah, so let's talk with Marion Hampton going to the Chargers. Now,
Najie Harris also going to the Chargers from Pittsburgh. I
don't think this is good for Nause. You know, he
was a guy that we could kind of rely on
as run well in running back two in Pittsburgh. You
would always get enough volume ahead of Jalen Warren. But
(21:39):
now I think he's more firmly in that running back
three territory, you know, outside the top thirty. But remember
this is a Greg Roman offense. And last season they
had like the ghost of JK. Dobbins and the ghost
of Gus Edwards, Like those are their two top running backs,
and so I don't think they ran the ball as
(22:00):
much as they even wanted to. And they were still
twelfth in running back carries and seventh in rushing touchdowns
for running backs, And in the thirteen games with Dobbins,
they averaged ten more carries per game for their backs
than they did in the four that he missed. So
Greg Roman, every single year that he's been a coordinator,
(22:22):
his offenses have finished top eleven in rushing attempts, but
really it was top nine and top really top seven
all but two years. And his worst finish was last year,
the first time he finished outside the top ten. And
I think it was because you had, you know, Edwards
really couldn't do anything. Kamani Vidal was nothing, and then
(22:45):
Dobbins got hurt for four games. So I do think
that you're gonna see a significant uptick in rushing attempts
for the Chargers this season, and I think it benefits
Hampton the most. I mean, you don't draft a guy
right there, you know, in the first round if you're
not intending to use him a ton. That's just what
we've seen if you go back and look at, you know,
first round running back picks, especially this day and age,
(23:06):
where you know, the position is a little bit devalued.
This was a deeper running back class. So the fact
that Hampton still went you know, right outside, right there,
outside the top twenty in this draft to the Chargers,
I think is significant. So I like him to to
to be a you know, he has RB one upside.
(23:28):
And remember Dobbins was splitting work with Gus Edwards when
he was healthy too, Like Gus Edwards was hurt some
of the time, but Dobbins and Edwards were kind of
splitting work and Dobbins was still a very very productive,
high upside back last year for the Chargers. So I
think Hampton can kind of slide right in that role
as a younger guy and then Nag He's going to
(23:50):
kind of be an upgrade on Edwards, but that's a
downgrade for Nause. So so I think those two guys
are going in opposite directions, and I'm not even gonna
talk about the duly Fork incident with mister Harris.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
I mean, what the fuck, I'm not a look like
I've made my mistakes with fireworks. I can remind everybody
of the circa nineteen eighty five bottle rocket war that
my friends and I had on the playground at Revenia
(24:24):
Grammar School.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
They had fireworks in nineteen eighty five.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
Well we made them at home, excuse matches and cardboard
and hollowed out ski poles. But come on, man, like
you're an adult at this point. You got to know
how to manage the fireworks, especially if you're a professional athlete,
especially when we have professional athlete fireworks cautionary tales stories.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Good god, I have one stupid fireworks story and it's
when I was sixteen, which I I think there's a
cutoff after you're out of it. Once you're into your twenties,
you shouldn't be having stupid fireworks conversations, right child. So
my bad one was had a party in my basement
sixteen years old. Buddy brings over fireworks and we have
the bread idea to throw fireworks at one another in
(25:15):
my basement.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
And again, Simon, that's what I did when I was
fifteen years old on a playground with hollow out ski
poles shooting him at each other.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
And sure enough, pretty drunk someone standing against a couch
and it says I'm kind of hot, and they turn
around in my entire couch was litt up and fire
in my parents' basement and my house is not like
bird plastic for a month, God bless my parents.
Speaker 3 (25:43):
Chad Sean, let's get to you.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
My guys, speaking of speaking of setting stuff on fire, set.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
This is Chad's question. So I'm shocked.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
I'm going that gets to ask it. Ben Johnson the Bears,
how far it up we the fantasy aspect of it
is there are there guys upgrading because of it? Like
give me everything, Ben Johnson, Bears Fantasy Talk.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, so I think this is one of the biggest
offseason moves was, you know, the Bears hiring Ben Johnson
to be the head coach, you know, after he was
the Lion's offensive coordinator the past three seasons led them
to be one of the top offenses in the league.
I mean, he's just like a really creative play caller,
(26:29):
really innovative. I think he's gonna be able to maximize
this offense, which you know has a handful of fantasy
relevant players, but it starts with Kaya Williams, who was
last year's number one overall pick, who had a very
up and down rookie season. You know, sure some of
that you could blame on Caleb, but I think a
(26:51):
lot of it had to do with poor coaching, and
his offensive line didn't help either.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
He took sixty eight sacks.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I mean, if you watch any Bears game, you knew
that was the big issue, was all those sacks. But
according to the underlying metrics, he was responsible for about
forty five percent of those sacks, which is right in
line with league average. So I think just with improved
offensive line, you know, they signed a handful of veterans
this year, should improve the offensive line. But I think
(27:17):
you know, Ben Johnson's ability to scheme plays should help Caleb.
You know, the first read will be open, so that's gonna,
you know, help prevent a lot of these detrimental sacks
and throwing the ball away things like that. So I
think that's gonna help A ton. I was also pleased
to see you know, they they drafted two quality pass
catchers in the draft in Luther Burton Colson Lovelin, who
(27:38):
I love heading into the draft. He gives me Jimmy
Graham vibes like he's gonna be a legit tight end,
and I just love the fact that he landed with
Ben Johnson. If you remember a couple years ago, I
was all worked up that Sam Alporta got drafted by
the Lions in the second round and he broke the
rookie record for receptions this season until Brock Bauers broke
(27:58):
it last year. But still it goes to show that
just a really good tight end can excel as a
rookie in this offense. So, you know, Loveland's a guy
I've been attacking at the you know, late tight end
one range. I think it's a great landing spot for
him on the flip side. There could be a ripple
effect here. You know, the Lions offense has been damn
(28:19):
near perfect these last couple of seasons. So if we
see any regression, which is just probably coming no matter what,
I think, people will kind of point to Ben Johnson
being gone being the reason why. So I think just
it was a massive coaching move that impacts half of
the you know, the NFC North. So I think this
is just a massive, massive offseason move, and you know,
(28:41):
it gives me confidence. Klem Williams having a year two breakout,
you know, I like Dj Moore, Rumba Doonsay could bounce
back this year. So it has a ton of fantasy implications.
And you know a lot of people are very optimistic
about the Bears this year. I know that scares you, Chad,
but I think I think it's warranted.
Speaker 5 (28:58):
Here, don't forget about the line. They redid their entire interior.
Joe Tooney, Drew Dowmon, those were both Toony was number
seven out of seventy seven guards, Dowman was number four
out of forty centers. And Jonah Jackson greatered highly as well.
So you have that interior line. So don't even sleep
on a guy like DeAndre Swift. Like, you know, like
(29:19):
this whole offense I think could take a step forward.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
To Shawn's point, Number one, excellent point, Chris Raybond, I
was going to say that offensive line, it could be,
it will be much improved, could be a top five
offensive line. Number one, Number two, Roomadunze doesn't need to
bounce back. Roumadunze had a productive rookie season in a
(29:42):
very challenging offensive environment in which his quarterback was constantly
struggling and a little bit playing hero ball and didn't
quite have the touch on some of the passes that
went to room Madonze that he probably should have had
and they probably developed better chemistry. Also, don't forget he
had a terrible offensive core, a terrible head coach, and
until the middle of the season none of this was
(30:04):
going to get fixed. And then they just put everything
in place to have the placeholder for the rest of
the year. So like, I couldn't be more confident right now,
which does not bode well for any of this. Love
the Coast and Loveland pick. Love the Luther Burden pick.
When Luther Burden was drafted, that was what was lighting
(30:25):
up the Chicago Friends text chain was oh my god,
we got Luther Burden. To me, this is a guy
with so much upside who got dropped a little bit
because for a variety of non football reasons in the draft.
Ryan Poles just got a five year contract extension, and
I think the enthusiasm of the moment is what got
(30:47):
him that deal because he'd been able to draft so
much talent and make some decent moves made vering the
pieces on the board. So yeah, the Bears. I think
it's another one talking about the playoffs, Like Simon, I'm
trying to figure out. Am I being over optimistic with
the Bears? Do I see the regression with the Lions?
(31:08):
How does Jordan Love and the Packers play into this?
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Well, it's tough, I would say, because your division and
the fact that we know that Caleb had a wasted year,
like the man had no one watch a film, no
one was coaching him last year. Like I'm with you,
I wanted to be all in on the Bears. To me,
this is like the true rookie year for Caleb. Let
him comfortable on the offense. But me and Chat talk
all the time that year to jump. Caleb has all
(31:32):
the time in the world. Him and Ben Johnson if
they're in kapatico in sink, Chad, I mean, I'm with you, Like,
if you guys have an eight and one start nine
and two, holy shit, Bears fans go crazy just because
you finally have the quarterback and you have the coach.
I get why you're at you're at the very edge
of not just going absolutely in sand right now because
(31:52):
the upside is so excited for this Bears offense.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
Get ready for misery. What do you got next?
Speaker 5 (32:00):
Periods added a rookie running back Travion Henderson. He is
extremely fast. I think he could be kind of like
that when those James White seasons, like when James White
was a monster. That's that's Henderson's upside in this offense.
And then Stefan Diggs, you know, it's kind of going
under the radar. And yes, he's coming off an injury
(32:22):
and he's going to a new team, but he's going
outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts. And remember
this is you know, Josh McDaniel's coming back here. He
had a kind of aging guy in DeVante Adams a
couple of years ago his first year when he went
to the Raiders and they just targeted him to It
(32:42):
was just they just forced fed him the ball. So
I think with a guy like Drake may number one,
I think Henderson and Diggs increased the likelihood that Drake
may can take, you know, somewhat of a step forward
in a year two. Now it's you know, still learning
a new offense. So I'm not gonna say he's gonna
be like a bona fide quarterback one, but he does
have that kind of upside because he can run it too.
(33:04):
And he just had the worst supporting cast, just guys
who really couldn't create much of anything for him, uh
last season. So just adding a guy like Diggs Henderson.
You also added Kyle Williams in the draft. You know,
Jerry's out on him, but he should. He should get
a chance to play some meaningful snaps as well. So
just uh an improved supporting cast from May. I think
(33:25):
he has, Uh, he's a great quarterback two option that
that you can kind of get if your weight and gigs.
I think people are underestimating Diggs because you know, maybe
his median projection is you know around you know that
that low end wide receiver three range, but uh, his
ceiling is still much higher. He could be an absolute
(33:46):
target monster in this offense because the drop off from
Diggs to everybody else, I mean it's there's no real
context there. So UH really like Diggs and then and
then Henderson is a guy who uh maybe used in
that you know, kind of James White roll and it
also is creating a little bit of value I think
on Rimandre Stevenson as well, because uh, you know where
(34:08):
he's going, like outside the top forty at running back,
he could still be the lead back, and Henderson you know,
could get you know, a lot of his touches in
the receiving game as well. So I do think there's
some intrigue here. And this is another one of these
offenses where people just don't really know what to do
with it, and so all these guys are kind of
going like there's no one really going that high in drafts.
(34:31):
But I think Drake May is an extremely talented quarterback
and you know, just going to a competent offense with
a competent supporting cast this year, the old line should
be better to should should be night and day for
Drake May, even though you know that he's kind of
going to that McDaniel's offense, which is is a new offense.
But I really think Stefan Diggs is being being underrated.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
Here, quick, Paul, before we get before Simon, you ask
coroner his next this next question. Quick, I've set a
line in my head of how many wins Mike Vrabel
will be responsible for this season because of excellent, thoughtful
(35:15):
coaching decisions. I've got the line in my head. I
will tell you if you've gone over under after everyone
gives me their answer, Simon, give me your answer. How
many wins is Mike Rabel personally responsible for because of
strategic decisions?
Speaker 3 (35:29):
Cruner, I'm gonna go with your line is exactly one
and a half.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
I like where you're hat you're at. You're wrong, but
give me your answer.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Yeah, I'll say one.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Huh interesting, Okay, Ray Buon, I.
Speaker 5 (35:46):
Would put the line at two and a half. You're
in a division with the Jets, baby and Dolphins and
the Dolphins, So.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
What's your number on how many wins he gets you?
Speaker 5 (35:58):
I mean, I think I think it's gonna be too
like realistically, like if you look at his like the
pittagger and wins versus actual he's usually above, you know,
overperformed somewhere in that ring. So yeah, I wouldn't see
it out of the question. He's definitely adding at least
at least one, but I do think he can add
multiple So I'm gonna go somewhere between two and three.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
My line was two and a half and my expectation
was three. There you go, Chris RAYBN and I as
usual a midseason mind meld. Simon, take it.
Speaker 4 (36:33):
Away, show you have another great name on the list here.
Speaker 3 (36:36):
I am an another one calling my shot.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
I am down on Puoka. To me, he's one of
the most overdrafted players right now in fancy football. Would
not be taking Puoka in the first round. You're out
of your mind. You're taking a guy with his injury risk.
No one's down to talent. It just cann you stay
healthy now, he's no doubt Number one. Break it down
to me, Devanta Adams, I am draft him in every league.
I'm all in on Devanti Atam.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Sim and Stafford.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
To me, that's the perfect mix in this McVay offense
of schemed open receiver and his style where he is
so smooth, still still got at his old age.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
I mean shocking.
Speaker 4 (37:12):
He could burn corners young twenty one year olds last
year on the Jets, even more motivated this season. Where
are you at with Dwatt the Adams in the Rams?
Speaker 2 (37:21):
So first off, I'm not low on Pooka at all,
that's all you. But I'm in agreement, I've been agreement
with you that this is a good fit. You know,
DeVante going to the Rams with McVeigh. You know, this
is a third team in the last twelve months, so
I think people are sick of just projecting him on
new teams. That's why this might be flying under the
radar a bit. Plus, you know, he's thirty two, so
(37:42):
he's clearly in the decline phase of his career. But
he looked great last year, so I think he still
has one or two really solid seasons left at least.
But I think this is this is a great landing
spot for you know, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense,
who really struggled in goal to goal gold to go.
Speaker 3 (38:00):
Situations last year.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
Stafford only completed forty one percent of his passes in
gold to go situations, which is thirty second out of
forty one quarterbacks. So he only threw twenty touchdowns, which
is the fewest in any season of his career where
he's played fifteen plus games. So that's where I think
Adams can immediately make an impact just being you know,
(38:23):
elite end zone threat for him. So you know, it's
gonna help boost the incoming positive touch on aggression. But
I think it's gonna help this offense because you know,
Pooka Niku is great getting the ball down the field
and into the red zone, but he hasn't been much
of a touchdown guy. And you know, Cooper Cup hate
to say it, but he was sort of washed last
year and he was banged up, so Stafford didn't really
(38:45):
have that second option like he typically does. So that's
where Adams is gonna step up. And this this is
really huge for Matthew Stafford, I think, and I can't
go a whole show without a player prop, so I
would say that the actual advice here is Matthew Stafford's
passing touchdown prop is twenty two and a half.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
I think that's a couple touchdowns too low.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
So I'm taking that over because he is due for
some positive touchdown regression solely due to you know, Devonte
Adams being in the mix this year.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
Well Snon loves Matthew Stafford, loves Matthew Stafford, raybond to that.
Speaker 5 (39:18):
Well baby, don't forget about him. He's gonna see, he's
gonna he's gonna be a full time player this year.
Got that ten million dollar deal. So I'm taking a
lot of him in Best Ball as well.
Speaker 1 (39:27):
Adam is Old speaking of receivers and.
Speaker 5 (39:30):
Pukah's injury prone to your points.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
Raybon, speaking of receivers, Will Matthew be golden in Green Bay?
Speaker 5 (39:40):
I think so. I think this golden draft pick for
the Packers has the potential to kind of not only
work for him in particular, I think he could be
the Packers number one wide receiver this year. I know
he's kind of going outside the top forty, right outside
the top forty. A lot of people, you know, not
(40:01):
sure exactly what his role is going to be. But
everything the Packers have done over the last year or
so in terms of their front office moves at the
receiver position and just you know, in play calling have
kind of told us they just didn't like their receiver
room last year. And I think they're looking for a
(40:23):
new number one type of guy because if you look
at last year, they really did not throw the football
with Jordan Love. And if you look at Jordan Love's
efficiency metrics, Jordan Love was top five almost across the board.
So Jordan Love really didn't fall off. It wasn't so
much of like, oh, let's high Jordan Love. I know
(40:43):
he had some interception issues at one point. But he
was still excellent in all the you know, important metrics.
He just didn't really throw a lot of passes. And
you saw Watson, they were trying to increase his snaps.
He got hurt again. Now he's probably out for at
least half to see and I think he said he
wasn't going to come back to like WE twelve or
something like that. Uh. And you look at you know,
(41:07):
Romeo Doves. They hasn't had one hundred yard receiving game
in the regular season. Uh, you know that's their guy.
That's the guy that was getting the most snaps for them.
Jayden Reid, like his agent or somebody had to come
out and say he's their number one receiver. This guy
got four and a half four point four targets per
game last year. That's their supposed number one receiver. Like
(41:28):
I think Golden has a massive, massive opportunity right from
the jump. Dantavian Wicks runs good routes, comes down to
catch the ball. He doesn't do it. And every time
guys have been healthy, Wicks plays like five percent of snap.
So they're telling us they want they see him as
a number four or five guy. Bo Melton, who had
some moments they they they're playing him at cornerback like
(41:50):
they just did not they were not feeling it. So
I think the you know, with Golden in tow, I
think they their volume could increase this year, their pass volume.
And I think, you know, with Jordan Love, those are
the kind of throws he could make down the field.
Really hasn't had a guy quite like that. You know,
Watson was kind of a speed guy down the field,
(42:11):
a little bit of different player, but they really haven't
had a guy like Golden, you know, for Jordan Love.
So I think it could increase the value of Golden himself.
I think he's going to be the number one when
it's all said and done. But I also think Dayden
Reed could take a step forward in terms of his
numbers just because the Packers are going to pass more
so even if reasons not the number one, and he
could be, but even like he's also going outside the
(42:34):
top forty now. So I think you have value on
both of those guys. Just because Golden has been added
to the mix. I think it left them play Dobbs
a little bit less than May and it lets them
play Wicks a little bit less. So they're gonna have
a very talented receiving corps. Jordan Love was you know,
very very good last year. Eight point zero yards per
(42:54):
attempt that was fifth in the league. You know, his
QBR sixty nine point three, that was fifth in the league.
So you just add some some volume there. And I
think these Packers receivers, these top two guys reading Golden
are gonna eat regardless. So I really like this move
for Golden, but I think the path is wide open
(43:15):
for him to be that number one because you know,
Dobbs really isn't that guy Wix. They don't really want
to play like that, and and reed they they only
play him in three wide personnel. So I think that
will increase this year because I think they throw more,
but that they've pretty much capped his snaps two years
straight and now they went out and got you know,
(43:38):
a guy who in the first round. So I think
that this this is a significant move. I think, you know,
when you look at number one receivers like they have,
they've had a you know, a twenty percent of them
have ended up finishing as a wide receiver one that
go in the first round. So it depends on the
class year year over year. But I think people are
(43:59):
kind of sweep on this year's class because they got
drafted into, you know, these crowded spots in terms of
you know, Abuka, Matthew Golden. But with Golden especially, he
has the quarterback and he has the pass to be
their number one and that's all you can ask for
when you're drafting a guy as your wide receiver. For so,
I think Golden is a smash, and I think Reed
(44:21):
is undervalued as well, and Jordan loves as well.
Speaker 1 (44:24):
Seems like a golden opportunity to find some upside, doesn't it.
Simon Sean, we got to talk about it.
Speaker 4 (44:36):
No comment the Texans. Who the hell is catching the
ball for the Texans that coming season? We know CJ's
been putting the ball downfield. He can make nobody's into somebody.
Who is the steel of the draft this year for
this Texas receiver crew.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
Yeah, so my first four we're just big moves. I'm
not saying I'm drafting a ton of those storylines. This
is a guy I am drafting a ton of. So
it's Jayden Higgins going to the Texans in round two.
I just love that landing spot. And you know they
already have Nico Collins, who is I consider one of
the best receivers in the league. So Higgins ceiling is still,
(45:11):
you know, just the number two receiver on this team.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
But I think, you know, CJ.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Stroud should bounce back here in year three, and this
offense is more than capable of supporting two, you know,
high end, fancy wide receivers. And I just love Higgins
as a prospect. You know, he's a bigger receiver, six'
four two fifteen, pounds really good, measurables really good at
catching the. Ball he had one of the lowest drop
(45:35):
rates in college last. Year and, ironically Like, mike comp for.
HIM i tried to find somebody else because this seems,
lazy but IT'S T. HIGGINS i, mean no, relation but
they're almost like. Identical and my my comp For Brian
thomas junior Is Randy. MOSS i couldn't find anybody else
to comp for, him So i'm just sticking WITH. T
higgins being my comp For Jaden. Higgins SO i, think you,
(45:56):
Know stroud could have a high quality number two two wide,
receiver AND i know they brought In Christian, kirk you,
know who could soak up some targets but we have
to remember they did Lose Stefan, diggs and you, Know
Tank dell had that very unfortunate leg entry at the
end of the season last, year so he's probably gonna
miss the entire. Season so there is room For higgins
to be the number two. Target and you, know defenses
(46:19):
they have to pay attention To Nico collins double team
him at, times SO i Think higgins could make him.
Pay so he's being drafted just outside the top fifty
wide receivers right, now and that's like the perfect range
to take a rookie wide receiver THAT i, think you,
know people are still. Overlooking he's a guy THAT i
could see making a couple splash plays in preseason and
have HIS adp shoot. Up So i've been trying to
(46:40):
get ahead of that and Drafting, higgins you, know as
much AS i can these early.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
Drafts all, right let me recap the top ten offseason
moves according To Fantasy pros top ten player projection Experts
Sean kerner And Chris. Raybond chris said that his biggest
move was head Coach Liam cohen to The Jacksonville. Jaguars
(47:06):
sean's biggest Move Travis hunter to The Jacksonville. Jaguars chris
also likes the combination Of Aaron, RODGERS Dk, Metcalf john
New smith to The Pittsburgh. Steelers kerner Loves Ashton genty
to The, Raiders Chris Omario hampton And Nijee harris to The.
(47:27):
Chargers kerner kind of an obvious captain Obvious Ben johnson
to The, bears not hating. It Chris Traveon henderson and
stuff On diggs gets To New, england although the biggest
impact move there is still going to Be Mike rabel
Coloner DeVante adams to The, Rams Chris Matthew golden receiver
(47:47):
to The, Packers Coloner Jaden higgins receiver to The. Texans
get more of this fabulous content and information to win
all all of your, leagues whatever your plan on The
Fantasy Flex podcast With kerner And raybon The. Favorites we'll
(48:09):
return with our next Episode thursday on The Action network
YouTube page when we TALK Nfl Training camp. Questions download
us From, Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your, pods rate, review,
subscribe leave us five, stars say whatever you want feedback
as a Gift until next, Time love, You Action network
(48:33):
reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you or someone you
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