September 27, 2025 • 28 mins
Nick Wright shares his best bets ahead of Week 4 of the NFL season including his predictions for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens taking on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs, Aaron Rodgers's Pittsburgh Steelers facing off with Carson Wentz and the Minnesota Vikings in Dublin, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars heading to San Francisco for a matchup with the 49ers, and more from a loaded Week 4 slate! #Volume
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in. We'll drive in the great episode three seventy
one hour Week four NFL Picks Show, gambling show. This
episode is brought to you, as always by our friends
at boost Mobile, and we would greatly appreciate if you like, rate, subscribe,
review to the pod, and a reminder to all of you.
All lines are from hard Rock bet all right. Deman's
(00:25):
last week was a stumble. Your teasers will get to
him in a minute. No longer undefeated and two. Week three.
I told you I felt I deserved better than I got.
I'm sorry week week two, I told you my Week
two picks. I think we went two and three or
(00:46):
three and two, it doesn't matter. I felt. I know that,
I felt like I was on the absolute right side
on four of those games and got, for lack of
better term, screwed.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
That happened.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
That is not what happened in week three. My three
losses in Week three, Demons are as bad a picks
as anyone's ever gonna have. So we was two and
three last week, a game under five hundred for the year.
That part's fine. But these losses, some of them should
have counted double they were so bad. So let's go
(01:24):
through them. Green Bay minus seven and a half against Cleveland.
They lose outright, I lose all my survivors. I'm just
cooked that they were never covering they I mean they
were up ten nothing. I guess they were covering briefly.
That was a terrible pick. Awful job road team against
(01:45):
a great defense and a look ahead spot. I should
have known. I took the bait. Somehow, that was my
best of the bad ones. Tennessee plus three and a
half against the Colts, pick six, first play of the game.
Brian call Hand can't figure out how to call a
field goal unit out there that they kicking just to
(02:05):
just routed by the Colts. And somehow that wasn't my
worst one of the day because I laid five points
with a divisional road favorite with a shaky quarterback, broke
all the rules I laid. Here's the thing. I for
(02:28):
my Atlanta minus five bet to win, Carolina would have
had to score negative six points because Atlanta, I laid
five points with a team that got shut out and
allowed thirty That was.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
The weirdest I was. That one was super weird. I
guess s green Bay Brown is pretty weird.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
But I was thirty five points off on this one.
I thought Atlanta could win by five. They lost by thirty.
Just awful. Now the Chargers controlled the early part of
that game, Denver came back Chargers field goal at the gun,
(03:09):
so a little lucky there, and then Detroit was clearly
the right side and it went kind of how I
thought it was going to go where I was like,
last team with the ball wins. Detroit ended up adding
an extra score on it, but they went for that
fourth down late ice the game. So we go two
and three this week. Luckily, I feel great.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
I like this week's sleep.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
I feel I feel like we're going to start off
one to zero before ten am West Coast time because
there's a London game, and there's a London game we love.
We will get to that in a moment. First, let
me remind you guys, today's show was brought to you
by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. If you love
(03:56):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. All right, Deman's let's
(05:48):
quickly roll through the games that I am not touching. Okay,
so what is the first? One?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Thursday night? I guess we talked about now because.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
This is where doing this on a Thursday, but people
are gonna hear it on Friday. So Thursday night, I
don't have a lean, I don't have a feel. I'm
not touching it. You guys will have already heard it.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
You got Washington minus oneed Atlanta stand away from that one.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Well, that's the line. I don't have the I don't
have you're just gonna have that. This is one of
the I guess the downsides to us doing these early.
We don't know the quarterback situation. I can't give you
any handicap on it. What I can't tell you is
Michael Pinnix is very lucky that the Atlanta Falcons don't
have a real fan base outside of Atlanta, or else
(06:33):
we'd be talking about it more because he has looked shaky.
The next game, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
New Orleans and Buffalo. New Orleans at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Yeah, New Orleans getting fifteen and a half, That to
me is a vintage stay away. It's just so many points.
Buffalo can dominate this game and should dominate this game,
and New Orleans can backdoor cover. I just I'm also,
full disclosure, not gonna be really locked into that game.
(07:03):
I think that's gonna be a seventeen to three early
second quarter game over game. Next one, you.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Got Tennessee plus seven at Houston.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Yeah, so I have decided I am not betting on
Tennessee again with Brian Callahan as the head coach, just
not doing it until he until he's gone. I will
not put any money on the Titans. I've made this
mistake twice this year. I'm not doing it again. With
(07:34):
that said, I can't lay a touchdown with the Texans
team that can't score, So that's the definition of a
stay away. Next.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Next, the Chargers minus six and a half of the Giants.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
I almost included this one. I almost included the Giants
six and a half. But it's a rookie quarterback against
a great defense. It's too many points to lay with
the Chargers team that's been, you know, been playing very
(08:12):
tight games. So I'm not going to lay the touchdown
with the Chargers. I kind of like the Giants, but
it's a rookie quarterbacks first start against a good defense.
Will stay away from it.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Next. Next, you've got Philly minus three and a half
at Tampa.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Yeah. I think Philly is the right side in this,
but Philly plays so conservatively that laying more than a
field goal on the road just feels foolish. I can't
bet Tampa with all those injuries, but if I were
to Philly, to me, is the right side of it.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Next, Carolina plus five and a half at New England.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Gross. Neither these teams is trustworthy. I understand. Carolina just
scored thirty I think that's, you know, an aberration. The
Patriots can't you know, just had five turnovers in a game.
It's just to stay away, just flatly. I'm not interested
in either team, either side of this game, just flatly
(09:14):
staying away.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Next, you got Indie plus three and a half at
the Rams.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
I lean Rams, but I have you know consistently and
I you know, what I don't want to do is
after betting against Indy a couple of times, then overcorrect
bet on them and have that be the week that
(09:46):
I'm right about them for the season where any think
they were that good. But I can't keep betting against them,
and so I'm very excited to watch that game. If
Indye wins that game, I will have to take them serious.
But I'm staying away from that one.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Next Chicago plus one at the Raiders. I might have
been wrong about the Raiders. I believed in the Raiders
going into the year. I thought the defense would be
better than people said it would be.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
It kind of has been. I thought Gino was a
huge upgrade aside from Week two he has been I
might have underrated how awful that offensive line is. With
that said, because I have some real stakes in the
ground on the Raiders. I don't want to flip entirely
and all of a sudden go with the Bears this week.
(10:41):
So this is just I'm just staying away.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Sunday night, Green Bay minus six and a half at Dallas.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
If I had to bet a side here, I would
definitely bet green Bay. I think though Dak Prescott at
home getting almost a full touchdown back door cover is
going to be wide open the whole game. I think
that a blowout is far more likely than a Dallas victory.
(11:09):
But I just don't want to lay a full touchdown
on the road in what could be an emotional spot
for both teams. And I certainly can't bet on Dallas
after what their defense has been all year long. All right,
last one we're not doing.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
Uh you got the Jets plus two and a half
at Miami.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Yeah, I don't know how you can put believe in
the Dolphins. I also don't think you can right now
bet on the Jets getting less than a field goal.
So those are stay aways. It's always a good sign,
Demanse when a few of the stay away games, I
actually like, it's never a good sign. When we're down
(11:56):
we're to the fourth pick of my five. Yeah, but
I just have to have five. It's a great sign
when there's a game like the Giants getting six and
a half that I kind of like, or what was
the other one, Philly laying three and a half that
(12:16):
I kind of like that. I just am saying, we're
not doing it because I love these five so much.
Let's start in Dublin, Demons.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
You've got Minnesota minus two and a half versus pitt
or Pittsburgh. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yeah, they'd be minus more against pitt the College, but
against Pittsburgh, I can't believe. I don't have to lay
a full field goal here. Aaron Rodgers played in overseas
last year against Minnesota. That was the famous Mike Mike's
gotta be on the red line game. He turned the
(12:55):
ball over three times against that Flores defense. I just
all this Minnesota defense absolutely demolish Jake Browning, who right
now stylistically is not that dissimilar to Rogers. Accurate, gotta
(13:16):
get the ball out quick. Favorites and international games are
covering machines thirty two and eighteen against the spread. Rogers
has been awful against pressure this year. Bottom three quarterback
in the league win pressured, and the Vikings are the
top three in the league at bringing pressure. I love
(13:41):
Minnesota laying a field laying less than a field goal.
I understand that means I'm betting Carson Wentz as a favorite.
I don't care. I'm not betting Carson Wentz. I'm betting
the Vikings defense minus two and Alfagans Pittsburgh. And I
don't clip this. We don't want this to be correct,
(14:03):
but I'm just flagging it. It's on the board. You're
shaking your head, Demnsey, What do you think I'm gonna
say here?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
You're gonna say Aaron Rodgers might end his season and
or something like that.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
You said it. It's on the board against this defense
with that Pittsburgh offensive line, that this is the last
we see of Aaron, Like, I think you gotta be
prepared for that. Like I am legitimately worried for Rogers
(14:41):
in this game. I don't think that offensive line has
been good. He's not mobile and they are gonna heat
him up. So I love Minnesota minus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
Next Cleveland plus ten at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
So listen, the Cleveland defense is awesome. They're awesome. The
Lions offensive line was great against Baltimore's D line. Cleveland's
d line with rookie Mason Graham, who's been great Miles Garrett,
who's just an all time great, is very different than
(15:17):
Baltimore's defensive line. I also think you've got Detroit short
week coming off that emotional win. The trends of teams
that had a win like Cleveland did an early season touchdown,
bigger dogs that win a game out right the next week.
(15:39):
Eighteen nine to four against the spread, I know Detroit's
been covering machines. Ten is just too many points for
a game that I think is going to not be
super high scoring. I think Cleveland's defense can keep them
in games. Week one, Cleveland defense kept him in the
(16:02):
Sincy game. Week three, Cleveland's defense one in the game.
Week four against Baltimore, Cleveland's defense was good. Cleveland had
more passing yards, rushing yards, third down, more time possession
than Baltimore. Lost by a million because they had a
pump blocked, there's a fumble, there's a pick. If Cleveland
just takes care of the ball, they can keep this
(16:25):
to within single digits. I'll take Cleveland plus ten next.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yeah, Jacksonville plus three at the Niners.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Yeah. I I think that Trevor's going to have time
to throw with Nicki Bosa out. I also think that
whether it's Mac Jones or Party, that Jacksonville d line
is legitimate and is is scary. And I think that
(17:07):
the Niners, to their credit, have found ways to win.
They It's been close games, and I think those three
points are super, super valuable. Now, I will tell you this,
because we're recording this on Thursday. If you like Jacksonville
on this spot, I would wait to bet them because
(17:30):
I think perty is going to play and I think
that this line goes at least to three and a
half and maybe to four. But the Niners, it's not
only that obviously Bosa is out, but as of Wednesday,
Juwan Jennings and Ricky pearsall weren't practicing. Another defensive lineman,
(17:54):
Gross Mattos, was not practicing. They Trent Williams the he's
healthy but and so he didn't practice, but that was
just rest related. I just I think Jacksonville is as
good as San Francisco, and I'm getting a field goal.
I'll take Jacksonville next.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Can't Who would have known Kansas City plus two and
a half versus Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
I mean, Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar. The Ravens are
on a short week. The Ravens D line Wednesday, demanday,
every single one of the Ravens starting d linemen misspractice,
every single one. We know Mattebouquet is not playing, and
that's a bigger story for them for the whole season
(18:42):
because he might be. His neck injury is like really scary.
But the Chiefs are at home. I believe the Chiefs
are better than Baltimore. The Chiefs need it. They are
getting Xavier Worthy back. They are the more rested team,
they are the more put together team right now. They
(19:05):
are the team that comes into this game more confident.
And I I think the Lamar versus the Chiefs thing
is real. And the fact that I am getting points
in Kansas City against a Ravens team that right now
has the worst defense in the conference. I'll just take it.
(19:28):
And Patrick, by the way five and one in his
career against Lamar, four and two against the spread. I'll
take the Chiefs here. This is also where you and
I need to discuss.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
That two oh yeah, oh what do you want to line.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
So what do you if the Ravens win? What do
you want from me?
Speaker 2 (19:51):
The best thing I could think of, I mean this
is way later down the road. I think this is
in March. Grand Theft Auto six is coming out, and
the prices of games these days gone up. Used to
be sixty, it's like seventy now. But that's like a
game everybody's been waiting on, so that one might be
like one hundred dollars. So I would love to like
not have to come out of pocket for Grand that
was six when the game straight up?
Speaker 1 (20:11):
All right, So if the Ravens win the game straight up,
this is a straight.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Up bet, not ah, not spread. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
Is there anything else game related that you're gonna want
when that comes out? Like a headset or anything else related? Like,
I don't know how Grand Theft works these days, is there?
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yeah? I mean, if you want to throw some extra money,
I could buy a Shark card, throw some money on there.
Immediately it's like, what's a card? It's like, okay, it's
like in game currency five million, It's like what's it
v bucks exactly exactly. It's great, okay, done, Here's what
(20:52):
I want from you? Okay, whatever the next holiday you
come home for from all.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Of my all of my kitchen clean up responsibilities fall
to you. Okay, not for the whole time. What whe
there it's Thanksgiving dinner or Christmas dinner, whatever, big, the big,
(21:27):
the one big meal. Kitchen clean up responsibilities are yours
and yours like you, there's not gonna be any you're
gonna have. You're the one that tells your mom I
lost a bet. I have to do this. He's not
allowed to.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Yeh, I'll take it. Thanksgiving is rough.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
But that's why I added that short card, because yeah, okay,
all right, we have a best all right, all right deal,
all right, what's the last pick of the way?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Last pick is Cincinnati plus seven and a half at Denver.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
I couldn't believe this line. I couldn't believe it. Listen,
I understand Cincinnati has not looked good with Browning. I
get that he's not gonna turn the ball over three
times every game. They still have those skill position guys Denver.
Why would you trust Denver to blow anybody out like
(22:26):
I just I'm getting more than a touchdown. Cincinnati plus
seven and a half in a game, I think they
could win outright, so yeah, I don't overthink this one.
Cincinnati plus seven and a half, they can win outright
if Pat Sartan's not playing great, Denver's offense is shaky
(22:48):
at best. Yes, give me the seven and a half.
All right? So our five picks this week four dogs,
one favorite in Ireland, Minnesota minus two and a half
against Bitsburgh, Cleveland getting tanneg at Detroit, Jacksonville getting three
at San Francisco, Kansas City getting two and a half
at home against Baltimore, and Cincinnati getting seven and a
(23:10):
half at Denver. Before we get to Demanse's teaser, let
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(23:54):
do apply, all right, Demanse, you took one on the
chin last week with the teaser three team eight pointer. Yeah,
that was plus eleven was a great one. Houston plus ten.
I don't we can show Houston plus ten solid Cincinnati
plus eleven. Brian Flores did it to your pal?
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Yeah, that was That was just a problem in my
process there. I should have There were a lot of
other games on the slate that I could have chosen
Cincinnati after dealing with the backup quarterback in their second game,
there's this other landscape I should have chosen differently, and
you could have doubled the teaser and it STI would
have lost. But this week is a three team eight
point teaser for plus one hundred. We were teasing Kansas
(24:39):
City up to plus ten and a half, the Jets
up to plus ten and a half, and Green Bay
up to plus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
I am aware, yeah, that way till one and a half.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Yeah, I'm aware that the Browns are out there. That
was another another one that I liked a lot. I
would have liked to tease that one. But this is
the one that we're going with. I don't see green
Bay losing that game. And but yeah, I.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Agree with that. I listen, Kansas City doesn't get blown out.
Green Bay is not gonna lose. You're also not getting
as much value if you do Cleveland because you're not
getting through as key of numbers. With the Jets, you
get through all the key numbers. And the question is
can the Dolphins blow anybody out? The answer that's probably no,
(25:29):
because you are teasing through the zero. I can't give
you a straight A. I will give you an a minus.
I like this one a lot. Okay, I like this
one a lot. Producers, you guys had in there an
offer earlier that I was going to take. Oh wow,
(25:50):
the the and it's gone now. So see, so demons,
let's go to the offer that they the offers they
have in there now, and I'm gonna tell you if
I'll take those as well. But there is one that
I'm interested in.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Yeah, so you said that this was time for Kelsey
to use one of his good games. So Kelsey six
plus receptions is at plus two thirty or if you
want to get really spicy and dangerous with it, you
can go Kelsey eight plus receptions for plus nine hundred.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
So I'm not gonna take either one of those. But
they had in there earlier, like Kelsey here it is.
This one is plus money, and I like it a lot.
I like this offer, and I'm gonna take this offer.
You got it? Demanse Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
Oh so Kelsey four plus receptions and Parsons over to
have a sack at plus one forty six.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
So half a sack over half a sack. So that
so if he gets half a sack, we don't lose it.
Ohka reduces. Yeah, because you can get half sacks. So
Kelsey have at least four catches Micah over half a
sack plus one forty six. I am taking that offer.
(27:08):
I think Kelsey's gonna have at least four catches. I
think Micah will get home at least once. I'm taking
that offer. Done and done first off the year that
we're taking. I love it all right. Thank you to
all our great sponsors, Thank you to Blue Duck, thank
you to Volume, thank you to all you guys. Please
like great, subscribe review. Good luck to everybody this week
(27:30):
and Ryder Cup. Amazing day of college football on Saturday,
Ireland game Sunday morning, Chiefs Ravens Sunday afternoon. Great weekend
of football. Talk to you guys later. What's right? All right?
(27:51):
Thank you so much, appreciate you guys. Gotta run bye,
Welcome in. We'll drive in the great episode three seventy
one hour Week four NFL Picks Show, gambling show. This
episode is brought to you, as always by our friends
at boost Mobile, and we would greatly appreciate if you like, rate, subscribe,
review to the pod, and a reminder to all of you.
All lines are from hard Rock bet all right. Deman's
(00:25):
last week was a stumble. Your teasers will get to
him in a minute. No longer undefeated and two. Week three.
I told you I felt I deserved better than I got.
I'm sorry week week two, I told you my Week
two picks. I think we went two and three or
(00:46):
three and two, it doesn't matter. I felt. I know that,
I felt like I was on the absolute right side
on four of those games and got, for lack of
better term, screwed.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
That happened.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
That is not what happened in week three. My three
losses in Week three, Demons are as bad a picks
as anyone's ever gonna have. So we was two and
three last week, a game under five hundred for the year.
That part's fine. But these losses, some of them should
have counted double they were so bad. So let's go
(01:24):
through them. Green Bay minus seven and a half against Cleveland.
They lose outright, I lose all my survivors. I'm just
cooked that they were never covering they I mean they
were up ten nothing. I guess they were covering briefly.
That was a terrible pick. Awful job road team against
(01:45):
a great defense and a look ahead spot. I should
have known. I took the bait. Somehow, that was my
best of the bad ones. Tennessee plus three and a
half against the Colts, pick six, first play of the game.
Brian call Hand can't figure out how to call a
field goal unit out there that they kicking just to
(02:05):
just routed by the Colts. And somehow that wasn't my
worst one of the day because I laid five points
with a divisional road favorite with a shaky quarterback, broke
all the rules I laid. Here's the thing. I for
(02:28):
my Atlanta minus five bet to win, Carolina would have
had to score negative six points because Atlanta, I laid
five points with a team that got shut out and
allowed thirty That was.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
The weirdest I was. That one was super weird. I
guess s green Bay Brown is pretty weird.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
But I was thirty five points off on this one.
I thought Atlanta could win by five. They lost by thirty.
Just awful. Now the Chargers controlled the early part of
that game, Denver came back Chargers field goal at the gun,
(03:09):
so a little lucky there, and then Detroit was clearly
the right side and it went kind of how I
thought it was going to go where I was like,
last team with the ball wins. Detroit ended up adding
an extra score on it, but they went for that
fourth down late ice the game. So we go two
and three this week. Luckily, I feel great.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
I like this week's sleep.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
I feel I feel like we're going to start off
one to zero before ten am West Coast time because
there's a London game, and there's a London game we love.
We will get to that in a moment. First, let
me remind you guys, today's show was brought to you
by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. If you love
(03:56):
betting on sports, or you just love sports and want
to try beating, the hard Rock Bets sportsbook Gap makes
it simple, packed with great insights and NonStop promos. Every
day of the week Sunday, hard Rock Bets Stats Hub
will have you cover right there in the app showing
me Kansas City has won ten in a row at
home against the AFC. You can get some juicy odds
(04:19):
if you want to tail Kansas City, like I think
I will be against Baltimore in the hard Rock Bet app.
If you haven't tried your first bet on hard Rock Bet,
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. All right, Deman's let's
(05:48):
quickly roll through the games that I am not touching. Okay,
so what is the first? One?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Thursday night? I guess we talked about now because.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
This is where doing this on a Thursday, but people
are gonna hear it on Friday. So Thursday night, I
don't have a lean, I don't have a feel. I'm
not touching it. You guys will have already heard it.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
You got Washington minus oneed Atlanta stand away from that one.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Well, that's the line. I don't have the I don't
have you're just gonna have that. This is one of
the I guess the downsides to us doing these early.
We don't know the quarterback situation. I can't give you
any handicap on it. What I can't tell you is
Michael Pinnix is very lucky that the Atlanta Falcons don't
have a real fan base outside of Atlanta, or else
(06:33):
we'd be talking about it more because he has looked shaky.
The next game, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
New Orleans and Buffalo. New Orleans at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Yeah, New Orleans getting fifteen and a half, That to
me is a vintage stay away. It's just so many points.
Buffalo can dominate this game and should dominate this game,
and New Orleans can backdoor cover. I just I'm also,
full disclosure, not gonna be really locked into that game.
(07:03):
I think that's gonna be a seventeen to three early
second quarter game over game. Next one, you.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Got Tennessee plus seven at Houston.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Yeah, so I have decided I am not betting on
Tennessee again with Brian Callahan as the head coach, just
not doing it until he until he's gone. I will
not put any money on the Titans. I've made this
mistake twice this year. I'm not doing it again. With
(07:34):
that said, I can't lay a touchdown with the Texans
team that can't score, So that's the definition of a
stay away. Next.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Next, the Chargers minus six and a half of the Giants.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
I almost included this one. I almost included the Giants
six and a half. But it's a rookie quarterback against
a great defense. It's too many points to lay with
the Chargers team that's been, you know, been playing very
(08:12):
tight games. So I'm not going to lay the touchdown
with the Chargers. I kind of like the Giants, but
it's a rookie quarterbacks first start against a good defense.
Will stay away from it.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Next. Next, you've got Philly minus three and a half
at Tampa.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Yeah. I think Philly is the right side in this,
but Philly plays so conservatively that laying more than a
field goal on the road just feels foolish. I can't
bet Tampa with all those injuries, but if I were
to Philly, to me, is the right side of it.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Next, Carolina plus five and a half at New England.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Gross. Neither these teams is trustworthy. I understand. Carolina just
scored thirty I think that's, you know, an aberration. The
Patriots can't you know, just had five turnovers in a game.
It's just to stay away, just flatly. I'm not interested
in either team, either side of this game, just flatly
(09:14):
staying away.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Next, you got Indie plus three and a half at
the Rams.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
I lean Rams, but I have you know consistently and
I you know, what I don't want to do is
after betting against Indy a couple of times, then overcorrect
bet on them and have that be the week that
(09:46):
I'm right about them for the season where any think
they were that good. But I can't keep betting against them,
and so I'm very excited to watch that game. If
Indye wins that game, I will have to take them serious.
But I'm staying away from that one.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Next Chicago plus one at the Raiders. I might have
been wrong about the Raiders. I believed in the Raiders
going into the year. I thought the defense would be
better than people said it would be.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
It kind of has been. I thought Gino was a
huge upgrade aside from Week two he has been I
might have underrated how awful that offensive line is. With
that said, because I have some real stakes in the
ground on the Raiders. I don't want to flip entirely
and all of a sudden go with the Bears this week.
(10:41):
So this is just I'm just staying away.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Sunday night, Green Bay minus six and a half at Dallas.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
If I had to bet a side here, I would
definitely bet green Bay. I think though Dak Prescott at
home getting almost a full touchdown back door cover is
going to be wide open the whole game. I think
that a blowout is far more likely than a Dallas victory.
(11:09):
But I just don't want to lay a full touchdown
on the road in what could be an emotional spot
for both teams. And I certainly can't bet on Dallas
after what their defense has been all year long. All right,
last one we're not doing.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
Uh you got the Jets plus two and a half
at Miami.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Yeah, I don't know how you can put believe in
the Dolphins. I also don't think you can right now
bet on the Jets getting less than a field goal.
So those are stay aways. It's always a good sign,
Demanse when a few of the stay away games, I
actually like, it's never a good sign. When we're down
(11:56):
we're to the fourth pick of my five. Yeah, but
I just have to have five. It's a great sign
when there's a game like the Giants getting six and
a half that I kind of like, or what was
the other one, Philly laying three and a half that
(12:16):
I kind of like that. I just am saying, we're
not doing it because I love these five so much.
Let's start in Dublin, Demons.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
You've got Minnesota minus two and a half versus pitt
or Pittsburgh. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yeah, they'd be minus more against pitt the College, but
against Pittsburgh, I can't believe. I don't have to lay
a full field goal here. Aaron Rodgers played in overseas
last year against Minnesota. That was the famous Mike Mike's
gotta be on the red line game. He turned the
(12:55):
ball over three times against that Flores defense. I just
all this Minnesota defense absolutely demolish Jake Browning, who right
now stylistically is not that dissimilar to Rogers. Accurate, gotta
(13:16):
get the ball out quick. Favorites and international games are
covering machines thirty two and eighteen against the spread. Rogers
has been awful against pressure this year. Bottom three quarterback
in the league win pressured, and the Vikings are the
top three in the league at bringing pressure. I love
(13:41):
Minnesota laying a field laying less than a field goal.
I understand that means I'm betting Carson Wentz as a favorite.
I don't care. I'm not betting Carson Wentz. I'm betting
the Vikings defense minus two and Alfagans Pittsburgh. And I
don't clip this. We don't want this to be correct,
(14:03):
but I'm just flagging it. It's on the board. You're
shaking your head, Demnsey, What do you think I'm gonna
say here?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
You're gonna say Aaron Rodgers might end his season and
or something like that.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
You said it. It's on the board against this defense
with that Pittsburgh offensive line, that this is the last
we see of Aaron, Like, I think you gotta be
prepared for that. Like I am legitimately worried for Rogers
(14:41):
in this game. I don't think that offensive line has
been good. He's not mobile and they are gonna heat
him up. So I love Minnesota minus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
Next Cleveland plus ten at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
So listen, the Cleveland defense is awesome. They're awesome. The
Lions offensive line was great against Baltimore's D line. Cleveland's
d line with rookie Mason Graham, who's been great Miles Garrett,
who's just an all time great, is very different than
(15:17):
Baltimore's defensive line. I also think you've got Detroit short
week coming off that emotional win. The trends of teams
that had a win like Cleveland did an early season touchdown,
bigger dogs that win a game out right the next week.
(15:39):
Eighteen nine to four against the spread, I know Detroit's
been covering machines. Ten is just too many points for
a game that I think is going to not be
super high scoring. I think Cleveland's defense can keep them
in games. Week one, Cleveland defense kept him in the
(16:02):
Sincy game. Week three, Cleveland's defense one in the game.
Week four against Baltimore, Cleveland's defense was good. Cleveland had
more passing yards, rushing yards, third down, more time possession
than Baltimore. Lost by a million because they had a
pump blocked, there's a fumble, there's a pick. If Cleveland
just takes care of the ball, they can keep this
(16:25):
to within single digits. I'll take Cleveland plus ten next.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yeah, Jacksonville plus three at the Niners.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Yeah. I I think that Trevor's going to have time
to throw with Nicki Bosa out. I also think that
whether it's Mac Jones or Party, that Jacksonville d line
is legitimate and is is scary. And I think that
(17:07):
the Niners, to their credit, have found ways to win.
They It's been close games, and I think those three
points are super, super valuable. Now, I will tell you this,
because we're recording this on Thursday. If you like Jacksonville
on this spot, I would wait to bet them because
(17:30):
I think perty is going to play and I think
that this line goes at least to three and a
half and maybe to four. But the Niners, it's not
only that obviously Bosa is out, but as of Wednesday,
Juwan Jennings and Ricky pearsall weren't practicing. Another defensive lineman,
(17:54):
Gross Mattos, was not practicing. They Trent Williams the he's
healthy but and so he didn't practice, but that was
just rest related. I just I think Jacksonville is as
good as San Francisco, and I'm getting a field goal.
I'll take Jacksonville next.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Can't Who would have known Kansas City plus two and
a half versus Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
I mean, Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar. The Ravens are
on a short week. The Ravens D line Wednesday, demanday,
every single one of the Ravens starting d linemen misspractice,
every single one. We know Mattebouquet is not playing, and
that's a bigger story for them for the whole season
(18:42):
because he might be. His neck injury is like really scary.
But the Chiefs are at home. I believe the Chiefs
are better than Baltimore. The Chiefs need it. They are
getting Xavier Worthy back. They are the more rested team,
they are the more put together team right now. They
(19:05):
are the team that comes into this game more confident.
And I I think the Lamar versus the Chiefs thing
is real. And the fact that I am getting points
in Kansas City against a Ravens team that right now
has the worst defense in the conference. I'll just take it.
(19:28):
And Patrick, by the way five and one in his
career against Lamar, four and two against the spread. I'll
take the Chiefs here. This is also where you and
I need to discuss.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
That two oh yeah, oh what do you want to line.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
So what do you if the Ravens win? What do
you want from me?
Speaker 2 (19:51):
The best thing I could think of, I mean this
is way later down the road. I think this is
in March. Grand Theft Auto six is coming out, and
the prices of games these days gone up. Used to
be sixty, it's like seventy now. But that's like a
game everybody's been waiting on, so that one might be
like one hundred dollars. So I would love to like
not have to come out of pocket for Grand that
was six when the game straight up?
Speaker 1 (20:11):
All right, So if the Ravens win the game straight up,
this is a straight.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Up bet, not ah, not spread. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
Is there anything else game related that you're gonna want
when that comes out? Like a headset or anything else related? Like,
I don't know how Grand Theft works these days, is there?
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yeah? I mean, if you want to throw some extra money,
I could buy a Shark card, throw some money on there.
Immediately it's like, what's a card? It's like, okay, it's
like in game currency five million, It's like what's it
v bucks exactly exactly. It's great, okay, done, Here's what
(20:52):
I want from you? Okay, whatever the next holiday you
come home for from all.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Of my all of my kitchen clean up responsibilities fall
to you. Okay, not for the whole time. What whe
there it's Thanksgiving dinner or Christmas dinner, whatever, big, the big,
(21:27):
the one big meal. Kitchen clean up responsibilities are yours
and yours like you, there's not gonna be any you're
gonna have. You're the one that tells your mom I
lost a bet. I have to do this. He's not
allowed to.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Yeh, I'll take it. Thanksgiving is rough.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
But that's why I added that short card, because yeah, okay,
all right, we have a best all right, all right deal,
all right, what's the last pick of the way?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Last pick is Cincinnati plus seven and a half at Denver.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
I couldn't believe this line. I couldn't believe it. Listen,
I understand Cincinnati has not looked good with Browning. I
get that he's not gonna turn the ball over three
times every game. They still have those skill position guys Denver.
Why would you trust Denver to blow anybody out like
(22:26):
I just I'm getting more than a touchdown. Cincinnati plus
seven and a half in a game, I think they
could win outright, so yeah, I don't overthink this one.
Cincinnati plus seven and a half, they can win outright
if Pat Sartan's not playing great, Denver's offense is shaky
(22:48):
at best. Yes, give me the seven and a half.
All right? So our five picks this week four dogs,
one favorite in Ireland, Minnesota minus two and a half
against Bitsburgh, Cleveland getting tanneg at Detroit, Jacksonville getting three
at San Francisco, Kansas City getting two and a half
at home against Baltimore, and Cincinnati getting seven and a
(23:10):
half at Denver. Before we get to Demanse's teaser, let
me remind you, guys, if you're thinking about upgrading to
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(23:54):
do apply, all right, Demanse, you took one on the
chin last week with the teaser three team eight pointer. Yeah,
that was plus eleven was a great one. Houston plus ten.
I don't we can show Houston plus ten solid Cincinnati
plus eleven. Brian Flores did it to your pal?
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Yeah, that was That was just a problem in my
process there. I should have There were a lot of
other games on the slate that I could have chosen
Cincinnati after dealing with the backup quarterback in their second game,
there's this other landscape I should have chosen differently, and
you could have doubled the teaser and it STI would
have lost. But this week is a three team eight
point teaser for plus one hundred. We were teasing Kansas
(24:39):
City up to plus ten and a half, the Jets
up to plus ten and a half, and Green Bay
up to plus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
I am aware, yeah, that way till one and a half.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Yeah, I'm aware that the Browns are out there. That
was another another one that I liked a lot. I
would have liked to tease that one. But this is
the one that we're going with. I don't see green
Bay losing that game. And but yeah, I.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Agree with that. I listen, Kansas City doesn't get blown out.
Green Bay is not gonna lose. You're also not getting
as much value if you do Cleveland because you're not
getting through as key of numbers. With the Jets, you
get through all the key numbers. And the question is
can the Dolphins blow anybody out? The answer that's probably no,
(25:29):
because you are teasing through the zero. I can't give
you a straight A. I will give you an a minus.
I like this one a lot. Okay, I like this
one a lot. Producers, you guys had in there an
offer earlier that I was going to take. Oh wow,
(25:50):
the the and it's gone now. So see, so demons,
let's go to the offer that they the offers they
have in there now, and I'm gonna tell you if
I'll take those as well. But there is one that
I'm interested in.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Yeah, so you said that this was time for Kelsey
to use one of his good games. So Kelsey six
plus receptions is at plus two thirty or if you
want to get really spicy and dangerous with it, you
can go Kelsey eight plus receptions for plus nine hundred.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
So I'm not gonna take either one of those. But
they had in there earlier, like Kelsey here it is.
This one is plus money, and I like it a lot.
I like this offer, and I'm gonna take this offer.
You got it? Demanse Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
Oh so Kelsey four plus receptions and Parsons over to
have a sack at plus one forty six.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
So half a sack over half a sack. So that
so if he gets half a sack, we don't lose it.
Ohka reduces. Yeah, because you can get half sacks. So
Kelsey have at least four catches Micah over half a
sack plus one forty six. I am taking that offer.
(27:08):
I think Kelsey's gonna have at least four catches. I
think Micah will get home at least once. I'm taking
that offer. Done and done first off the year that
we're taking. I love it all right. Thank you to
all our great sponsors, Thank you to Blue Duck, thank
you to Volume, thank you to all you guys. Please
like great, subscribe review. Good luck to everybody this week
(27:30):
and Ryder Cup. Amazing day of college football on Saturday,
Ireland game Sunday morning, Chiefs Ravens Sunday afternoon. Great weekend
of football. Talk to you guys later. What's right? All right?
(27:51):
Thank you so much, appreciate you guys. Gotta run bye,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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