December 12, 2025 • 39 mins
What’s the current global impact of President Trump’s tariffs? The U.S. Supreme Court is set to give their final ruling on the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariffs in the coming months. Gregory Stoller, professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business checked in to discuss the status of President Trump's tariffs among other areas of economic interest.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
He's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm WBSY, Boston's Meet Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thank you, Thank you very much, Ale Griffin. As we
work our way through the ten o'clock hour, we're going
to talk with Professor Greg Staller of Boston University question
School of Business. Professor Staller, Welcome back to Nightside. How
are you sir?
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Good?
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Thanks Dan, how are you good?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We always enjoy talking with you. You have taught for many,
many years, and one of the things that is always
interesting to me is that you have led a lot
of your students on trips to various parts of the world,
but many trips to China. So you are as hands
on a business school professor as I know. How many
(00:44):
trips have you taken to China with your students at
wherever you are teaching you now, of course at Boston University, I.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Have taken students to China fifty six times, and in
March of next year as part of one of our courses,
that will be trip number fifty seven.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
But you're now going to other countries as well. You
have really focused on China for a well better part
of three decades at this point, but you're going to
now branch out and take students to I understand that
a South American nation.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yes, we are heading to Brazil twice, once in January
to write new cases, and then another time in June
of next year. This will accommodate the thirty year of
an annual competition where we've had one hundred plus teams
from thirty eight universities in twenty countries that are competing,
and we've nunded down to the top six and that's
(01:41):
going to happen in June of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
So what is the advantage for business school students to
spend part of their term while in business school, which
normally is a two year term, in an overseas activity.
These have to be students who are interested in doing
business with the countries where you are taking them. Or
is this a procedure and a process to broaden their
(02:07):
mind that the world is a very big place, that
we represent a significant part of the world economy, we
are not the total part of the world economy.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
No. I think it's a little bit of both, in
the sense that I'm very fortunate to be at Boston University,
where we have over eighteen different colleges that make up
the university itself, and that could be the School of Theology,
the School of Dentistry, and obviously business. And as much
as I try and be energetic and animated inside the classroom,
I'm constrained by the fact that it is a four
(02:37):
walled classroom. And even with guest speakers and zoom and
everything else, there's nothing like bringing students to the belly
of the proverbial economic beast, where you're going to talk
with industry leaders, you're given consulting recommendations, and really understanding
what's happening on the ground.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
So let's come back to the US. We've talked two
or three times this year. One of the big economic
ventures that the administration President Trump's administration has involved themselves
in is tariffs. And my recollection is that last April,
when he had the so called Liberation Day on April
(03:18):
second and he announced the tariffs, there was a lot
of fear and which was palpable, and the stock market
took a huge hit in April as a consequence of
that fear that the tariffs were not the right direction
to go. It's still debated, but it looks to me
like so far the US has netted two hundred and
(03:43):
thirty billion dollars in tariffs. That's a big number, but
it is a very small percentage of the GDP and
even a smaller percentage of our federal debt. As you
look back on this tariff program, is it is it
a mixed bag of results? Is it better than you expected?
(04:05):
Is it worse than you expected? It hasn't had the
adverse impact that initially had in the market. That's the
one thing that I think we know for sure correct.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
So let's look at this and unpack at piece by piece. Right,
the Dow Jones Industrial average.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
Year to date.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I know today wasn't such a great day because of
concerned about AI bubble, but it's up fourteen percent yearter date.
The NASDAC is up twenty two percent. The Dow, by
the way, is doing better at the end of twenty
twenty five than it was comparably a year ago. NASDAC
a little bit worse. Prices I estimate are up one
(04:42):
point two percent in the short term. And I think
you hit the nail on the head is that if
you think about tariffs right, they're one specific stream within
the broader umbrella of customs and excise taxes, right, And
depending on which news or consult those have ed have
(05:02):
met in customs and excise taxes as a whole one
hundred billion to two hundred and nineteen billion. I know
you're going to tell me the one hundred billion is
not you know, not an insign have to get round
the error. But but it is up one hundred and
thirty percent compared with historical federal receipts from customs and exercises.
(05:23):
But to your point, it's a tiny, tiny percentage of
the USGVP.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Yeah, it's not going to make a huge dent in
the in the in the national debt, in the federal debt,
but it's better than than nothing. What sort of a
grade would you give, you know, as a professor his idea.
I mean, he was very aggressive with tariffs. Now he's
backed off a lot of countries. It looks like it's
(05:54):
very classic Donald Trump in that he's writing one hundred
deals simultaneously. It sounds like that's what makes him get
up in the morning. Or Am I missing something?
Speaker 3 (06:05):
No? I mean, I think at the risk and founding trite,
I think it depends on what side of the fence
you're on, right, Is that if you're looking at it
from the Republican and I always tell you on your show,
and I, by the way, thank you again for the opportunity.
But I don't talk about religion and politics in my classroom.
I'm just not qualified to do that. But you know,
(06:25):
if you're looking for quote unquote Republican domination, then you
probably give him an A in the sense that he
has increased a year from you know, prior one hundred
and thirty percent increase in money that's coming into the
federal coppers.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
Right.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
If you're looking at it from a consumer perspective, I
think it would probably be a B minus or a
C plus, because yes, you have helped a number of
I guess us companies, but at what risk in the
sense that all of us as the lowly consumer, not
the not the you know, brilliant professor, if you will,
(07:04):
I'm being sarcastic. You know, prices are way up. I
went it was very cold yesterday in Boston. I didn't
get listeners all over the country, but I went to
get a simple, you know, cup bowl of ramen soup.
But one of the local places right near my office.
It was eighteen dollars and a year ago that would
have easily been twelve or thirteen dollars. So I'm not
(07:25):
so sure from the consumer's perspective that this has been
such a great success.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
So okay, can you and you have a better ability
to do this than I. Can you correlate the tariffs
and whatever goes into that ramen soup to justify a
fifty percent increase? Or is this the business? Is this
the business is saying, ah, we have an opportunity to
point fingers and actually increase our profit margin by a
(07:52):
significant number and blame it on something that really is
not the cause of the cause of the increase in price.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
That there lies the tip of the argument. Right. I've
been fortunate enough to be on your show in April
twenty second of this year than July fifteenth, And you know,
the consumers aren't stupid, right, and neither are the producers.
The consumers are going to say, hmm, is it really
important to have eighteen dollars ramen every day? Clearly not.
It was just cold yesterday, right, But the average producer
(08:26):
has managed to bob and weed and is doing things
in a way that's saying, you know, something, we're outside
of the United States, will no longer sell our goods
to the US, will sell them to Canada, will sell
them to Mexico, will sell them to Indonesia. It doesn't
really matter. We just won't do business with the United States.
And that's unfortunately. What happens is that a lot of
(08:48):
these producers that we as consumers are used to getting
comparatively cheap stuff from right that's not coming into our
online portals anymore. That's not coming into brick and mortar stores.
Those producers are going elsewhere because they have to pay rent,
they have to put food on the table as well.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
So what you're saying is that you're ram and soup yesterday.
As an economist, you looked at it and you said,
this is a reasonable price. I, on the other hand,
follow very closely the price of cookies, particularly things like
Oreos and Pepperidge Farm cookies, and I'm convinced. I know
that cocoa and chocolate have gone up somewhat in price
(09:30):
for unrelated to tariffs, by the way, weather conditions in
South America's I understand it, but I still believe that
a lot of the cookie producers that they have stayed,
they have kept their prices up unnecessarily I've seen, for example,
the price of eggs, which had gone up dramatically, starting
(09:51):
to come back down. I don't know if you're an
egg purchaser at stores, but I can get a dozen
eggs now for two ninety nine, and that's it's fairly
much more reasonable than well, it's much.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
More economical than it was six or eight months ago.
I mean, and there it lies another problem in this analysis, right.
I wish we could say that automatically, all prices are
going to go off by x percent or all prices
are going to go down by y percent. To your point,
it's very specific. It's industry specific, it's product specific. And
the question is as a consumer, yeah, I mean, if
(10:26):
you could save two dollars on eggs, would it be
worth spending more money and gas to travel an extra
couple of miles to I don't know market basket as
opposed to Roach Brothers. I think that that becomes a
very consumer specific decision. But I can't refute the fact
that life is just expensive these days. It's just far
(10:47):
more expensive to me than it feels like it was
a year ago. And whether that's just general inflation, I
don't know, but it's a little bit scary for those
of us who have kids in college, your kids in
graduate school. It doesn't exactly allow you to sleep peacefully
at night, because it's fear of the uncertain.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
All right. My guest is Professor Gregory Staller of Boston
University Question School of Business. If you'd like to join
the conversation, feel free six one, seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty.
I have lots of questions, and of course Professor Staller
always has great answers, but I'd love to incorporate you
into the conversation. Feel free to join the conversation back
(11:28):
right after this quick break on a cold New England
Friday night, December, middle of December edition of Nightside.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
You're on night Side with Dan Ray on w BZY,
Boston's news.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Radio with Me. It's Professor Gregory Stoller, Boston University Question
School of Business. Professor Stallo has been a guest in
this program over the years many times, and he's someone
who explains economics very clearly, which I can't say that
about every economist who i've professor, So please take that
(12:01):
as the ultimate compliment. President Trump obviously was focused on
tariffs in April. His focus is still there, but he
has begun to focus on things like Venezuela. So there's
a lot of activity the Middle East, Ukraine. It has
been a He's had a very parapatetic presidency, and I
(12:22):
suspect you probably would agree with me on.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
That point one hundred percent. I think that he has
a lot of energy and I do think he has
the country's best interest at heart, but he tends to
go from project to project and is very intensely focused
on something. But I think like any chief executive, whether
that be a politician or a company CEO, you have
to sort of bob and weed depending on what's happening
(12:48):
in the broader environment around you.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Okay, So, now, knowing that the stock market had a
bad day today and has had a few bad days
in the last few months, but it has tended to
bounce back overall. As you look at two and twenty
six and you take everything into consideration, which includes what
the Fed did yesterday, we've now cut I think it's
(13:13):
a point and a half in the last fifteen months.
Do you look at twenty twenty twenty six, forget the
politics of a moment, do you look at at at
a at a time where we're going to feel better
about the economy generally halfway through twenty twenty six, or
(13:34):
do you feel that this I don't want to use
the word malaise because that's a word that is it's
a very loaded word. But the anxiety that the American
public has been showing in the last few months is
going to either continue or intensify.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
I mean, at the risk of sounding generic, I think
everything's going to revert to the proverbial mean. And what
I mean by that, then attended, is that people get
to figure it out. And I think that would be
my ps if I were reporting on twenty twenty five.
It was very tumultuous in April or May, and I
think people were genuinely concerned, whether you're a company owner
(14:14):
or whether you're a consumer. People figured it out, and
I had predicted on your show, because I reviewed the
transcription preparation for tonight, that everything was going to calm down.
I wouldn't say that it was economic malaise, but I
think that people are going to go on to the
next crisis. And I think that as long as prices
(14:35):
are in check, and that's what I worry about more
than anything else. Right, it's that one point two percent.
You know, you can call this whatever you want again,
you know, putting on my economics hat inflation overshoot, which is,
you know, a one time effect, not ongoing inflation pressure.
I think if we're able to whether that storm, it's
(14:58):
going to be business as here as you in the
first half of the second half of twenty six. If, however,
we engage in this whip saw, like you know, issues
where the dollar is up four hundred points one day,
down four hundred points the next day, you know, pick
whatever poison you want today. Happened to be AI last
week with XYZ. That's going to cause consumers to be
(15:20):
a little bit rattled. And of course in the back
of everyone's mind is going to be the midterm elections.
And you and I have spoken Dan on air off
air over the years, is that most consumers might not
be able to explain what the laugh of curve is
or the J curve and economics, but they are able
to vote with their pocketbooks, and if things are going well,
they will probably keep the current politicians in office. If
(15:42):
things aren't going well, regardless of whether it's an economic
truism or not they will vote for a different party.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Oh no, no question, no question. So one of the
things that seem to be going well for the Trump administration,
which should have an impact across the board, is gasoline prices.
How do you explain why gasoline prices and the price
(16:09):
of oil has stayed down and has gone down pretty
consistently this year in a year when there was a
great deal of fluctuation in other markets. What's going on.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Thereat great question. I would think that when the tariff
issue broke in April, I think a lot of the
companies were willing to absorb the losses so they wouldn't
have to pass the price increase directly onto consumers. And
I think as we got into the middle of this
calendar year, and I would say up until maybe mid
(16:46):
T three or the beginning of Q four, I think
that companies were continuing to absorb it, and that's why
prices haven't dramatically increased. Gas being a perfect example. Again,
you just asked about twenty twenty six. That's partially what
keeps me up at night. Our company is going to
have an epipody in early twenty six saying what the
heck are we doing. Why would we want to continue
(17:09):
subsidizing our consumers. Let's just pass ten percent of the
increase twenty percent of the increase onto the consumer, assuming
by the way, that prices have continued to increase. That's
what worries me. But you're right for the moment, looked
at you know, through the myopic lens of today, December twelfth,
gas prices are hovering around three bucks a gallon, and
(17:32):
you're not expecting that to be because of the.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Tariffs, and even with what's going on in Venezuela, which
is a big oil producer, right, there hasn't been a blip.
I thought that a blip might occur as a consequence,
particularly of what happened yesterday with the capture of the.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Thing of the tanker and everything else. And I think
that's again the same storyline, right, you know, what about this?
What about that? You know, don't forget about that. The
fact of the matter is, no matter what, the US
consumer has been able to weather the storm. And I
think your example of a few minutes ago before the
break on eggs is a perfect example. It's shot up
(18:13):
because everyone was concerned. Everyone said, uh, oh, you know,
let's stop buying eggs, and very quietly it reverted to normal,
the same way that a lot of other prices have
reverted to normal. And note that I said prices are
up one point two percent, not eight pointy two percent,
because the US consumer figures it out, and by the way,
the producers of those eggs or or those oil refineries,
(18:36):
et cetera, they figure it out to comment, thank you
very much.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
By the way, on the eggs prices, there also was
a bird flu epidemic that was simultaneous with the tariffs.
And I think that the bird flu, the avian flu
academic which was not as bad as I guess might
some have been projected. But egg production is back to
(18:59):
where it was. And I think that's the correlation on
the on the price drop and the and the and
the tariffs did not have the impact on eggs that
we would have expected because I guess we produce a
lot of eggs in this country.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Well, I think that's the iority of this, Right is,
in any calendar year, there's always going to be some
sort of crisis.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
It could be OPEC deciding to increase production or hotail production.
It could be a bird flu, it could be some
exogenous factor.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
But that's what's been so unique about the tariffs is
this isn't an unexpected crisis. This is in many cases
a planned crisis.
Speaker 6 (19:41):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
But yet, in spite of it being a planned crisis,
once again, the US consumer has weathered the storm. And
I think that's what makes it fascinating, as long as
I don't have to go for rob and soup every
day for eighteen dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Okay, well, well let's have to forget about the rom
and soup for a while. Look, we got to take
a news break, which you know we do. When we
get back, I want to talk about some secondary impact.
I also want to get to phones. Patrick and Terror
you stay right there. You're gonna be first up six one, seven, two,
five four ten thirty six one seven, nine three one,
(20:15):
ten thirty. We got a couple of lines there on
one line at six one, seven, two, five, four to
ten thirty. We're beginning at eleven o'clock. Twenty seven minutes
from now, we're gonna go into our twentieth hour. We
will say good night to Professor Staller and again, if
you would love to chat with chat with an actual
Boston University School of Business business, Professor, this is your opportunity.
(20:40):
I really appreciate Professor Staller being with us. We'll be
back on night Side right after.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
This Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
We will go to phone calls right away. But I
have one final question, and that is one of the
potential positive impact of the tariffs were that some American
companies might have been induced to bring businesses back to
this country and build manufacturing plants back in this country.
(21:15):
What is the evidence of that at this point, again,
we're seven months after the implementation of the tariffs. Are
there companies that have decided to bring particularly car manufacturing
back to this country?
Speaker 3 (21:28):
Professor Jef These are very much works in progress. But again,
you know how much do we want to separate the
week from the chap Have these happened because of the
tariffs or have these happen because of trade deals that
President Trump is negotiating. I think it's too soon to tell,
but I will tell you that very quietly, there is
(21:48):
more and more activity where non US manufacturers are bringing
manufacturing back to the United States. But remember, the whole
point of a tariff is to protet that's an existing
US manufacturer. It's not I liked when you use the
word induce, but you know, again, pick whatever side of
the fence you want to be on. Are you providing
(22:11):
consumers with more choices by having non US manufacturers come
into the United States? Possibly? If you're supposed to solely
focus on US manufacturers, has it been working? I don't know.
You know, why is there a twelve billion dollar subsidy
that's happening to farmer bridge payments? Supposedly the talents we're
(22:32):
supposed to you know, foresee that happening. That's the challenge.
That's the challenge.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Well, the other question in my mind, and I switched,
I said, I don't knowing you probably would know this.
Do those twelve dollars? Does that twelve billion dollars in
bridge payments which would be taken from I assume the
the net increase in tariffs. Does that make the farmer's
whole or is that simply a percentage of what they should.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
Have I had the same exact quit. It's funny you
say that, Dan, I have the same exact question. Is
that positioning them to where they would have been or
should have been? In mid December twenty twenty five, I
don't think it's saying, Hm, that's great, here's some extra
income going into the holiday season. I think it's an
attempt to make them whole. But again, to give President
(23:24):
Trump some props here the fact that tariffs have netted
so much money. It's not like he has to borrow
money from the treasury in an effort to make those
bridge favorites. It's clearly coming in to those same coffers,
whether it be customers of XCIS or Carraff, revenue isolated.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Every time I talk to you, Professor, I wish he
had studied economics more in school. I really think that
it was a much more interesting, inherently interesting topic than
it was ever presented that way to me.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
While you probably had far more fun on the weekends
than I had when I was in school, I don't.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Know about that. Okay, let's let's keep rolling here. We'll
leave that out of it. Let me go to Patrick
in not in the Belly of the Beast, in the
District of Columbia. Patrick, welcome back to Nightside. I've been
missing you, buddy. How are you?
Speaker 7 (24:14):
I've been missing you and I wanted to join in
on this conversation, especially for the holidays, Professor. All I
can see right now is for Pen's Wharton School of
Business and for Harvard's Business School.
Speaker 8 (24:27):
Move over, Boston, you is here, right, professor.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Thank you very much. Yes, no terriers. Well we got it.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
I'm a laws I'm a Boston University law school guy.
So I got to jump into the fray here and
defend the Commonwealth Avenue institution. That is that is for sure.
All those people over in Harvard they just did this.
They're waking in their boots right now.
Speaker 6 (24:51):
But the Commerce Department is reporting that we have a
trade deficit that has narrowed a little bit here, and
would you go ahead and p dead into what has happened,
because they're saying that this is the first thing that
the first trade the narrowing of the trade deficits since
twenty twenty, and the first pandemic. And so we have
(25:12):
some well we have imports they say went zero point
six percent, but to the overall deficit fell ten point
nine percent. How do you think do you think this
is working out?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
I mean, and again I don't want to appear tonight
to be you know, borrowing a phrase from from French
side to pond and depends but I think you really
have to look at it through different lenses. Right, If
the president of the country is supposed to represent constituents,
simply represent constituents, then I'm not so sure that tariffs
(25:48):
are working so well because prices have gone up and
the Federal reserve vent can only you know, can only
control inflation so much. Obviously, they're under increasing amounts of
pressure from President Trump to lower those interest rates. If
you're looking at it from a trade deficit perspective, yeah,
it's been a huge success. It's been a huge success.
(26:08):
If you're looking at it from that perspective, you've got
to give President Trump not one high five, but two,
because clearly the deficit is shrinking. Okay, yeah, I see
that too.
Speaker 6 (26:20):
But would you also add in there with the high
prices from the consumer side, maybe the retailers have jumped
on the bandwagon for terraffs and raised price it's just
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
More issue as well.
Speaker 3 (26:34):
We would literally, patter, we were just talking about that
before you called in. You know, that brings into mind ethics.
In a year that the economy hasn't been great outside
of the stoft market performance, would you begrudge anybody from
being a little bit predatory with their pricing. Probably not.
(26:54):
Is it the right thing to do? Of course, it's
not the right thing to do. But as I said
to them at the top of the hour, life is
not a four wall business school classroom. Life is survival
and business is war, and you have to do what
you can to protect your own slice of Americana. So
am I happy that people are maybe taking a little
bit of advantage of that. No, I'm not happy. But
(27:16):
the fact of the matter is it's happening more than
I think all of us would care to admit. You know,
by the way, several years ago, and you know, when
Governor Romney was the governor of Massachusetts, he raised a
bunch of fees because he said, we needed to cover
those fees. And he said, you know, and we all fit,
are those fees ever going to come back down? And
(27:37):
of course they're not going to come back down here.
Once you grease speeds, you're never going to decrease them, right,
So are people going to lower these prices after the
paroff war ends? Of course they're not. But you just
have to figure it out.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
But the consumer can strike back, and the consumer individually
and collectively can say, guess what, you know, those Pepper
Farms cookies that I used to buy, you know, at
two fifty or two ninety nine, they're four ninety nine.
I can I can buy other cookies and be just
as happy.
Speaker 3 (28:09):
I mean, you are, absolutely And I keep using the
stupid example of the ramen noodle soup. It's gonna be
a cold day, and you know what, before I ever
pay another stink at eighteen dollars for a loop, well
you know, I'll drink seventeen cups of tea, which that's
not gonna rise to eight dollars. But all joking aside.
That's the problem, right, is that how much are the
(28:30):
consumer is going to strike back? And then all of
a sudden what people expected in terms of the revenue
forecast isn't going to come to bear because people just
don't want to spend the extra money.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Great point there, Thanks Patrick, Patrick. I hope to talk
to you before Christmas. If not, Merry Christmas, okay, but
I hope to talk to you more often. Thanks buddy.
All right, bye bye, Thank you, mich We take a
very quick break. We're gonna keep rolling it and we're
gonna get everybody in six and seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty one line there six one seven nine
(29:03):
three one ten thirty one line there. We're flipping it
at eleven o'clock. We're going to twenty hour, and I
want to know your favorite you must see TV show.
I'm going to tell Professor Staller right now, you know
what show I really have become addicted to. Professor, Do
(29:25):
you have a watch the show Tracker on Sunday nights?
Speaker 3 (29:29):
It's really exciting. Yes, I love it.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
I do too. I just think it's intellectually stimulating. You can.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
I don't watch a lot of TV, and I happen
to love that.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
I think all right, great minds, think like very right
back on Nightside, here we go, coming back right after
the break.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
It's night Side with Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
Let's go to Terry down in the Cape. Hey, Terry, welcome.
You're with my guest, Professor Gregory Staller of Boston University Questionroom,
School of Business. Go ahead, Terry.
Speaker 5 (30:03):
IDA am nice to speak with you, and Merry Christmas
to you and all your loved ones. Professor, I am
very honored to speak to you. I am not an
economic major by any means, but I'm a practical, realistic person.
And I'm out there down here on Cape Cod in Harwich,
(30:26):
and I'm talking to the seniors. The seniors they are
on fixed incomes. And I'm looking around down in Hyannas
the right side of the street on Main Street. I'm
talking about closed stores, not just for the seasons. They're
out of business. People can't pay utilities, they can't pay
(30:51):
the cost of hiring employees, healthcare benefits for oh one case,
YadA YadA, closed for good. And nobody's going in to
start up my little town in Harwich that has like
fifteen thousand residents. We right now have an eighty three
(31:14):
million dollar deficit, and we had a fifty one million
dollar school budget, a forty five million dollar town budget,
and we're doing a two hundred and fifty million dollar
waste water project. Well, I can't even get my head
(31:36):
around those kinds of heroes.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
I think we got to get some different people in
public office down there. Sounds to be like, well.
Speaker 5 (31:44):
This didn't just happen yesterday, Dan by any.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Means no, No, I understand that. But who has been
elected these spen rifts?
Speaker 5 (31:54):
Has it been going on for over twenty years?
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (31:58):
I know, we have, well the things we have a
triple A blunch reading, and everybody says the budget is wonderful. Yeah,
oh they're doing is borrowing. It's not wonderful.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
No, I'm with you, Terry. I'm totally with you, professor.
Other than getting a lot of different people, I mean,
it sounds I get a bunch of spend thrifts down there.
But go ahead, professor, what advice?
Speaker 5 (32:25):
I mean?
Speaker 3 (32:26):
I don't think I'm necessarily qualified to talk about town finances,
but I think that the you know, in theory, the
tariffs are supposed to insulate those very small businesses on
the Cape that are going to protect them and have
people go to shop locally as opposed to going online.
(32:46):
It doesn't sound like that's working too well so far.
Speaker 5 (32:49):
Yeah, well the people aren't chopping at all because they
don't have any money.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
Well that's and that's what Dan and I were talking
about earlier this hour, is that I think again, are
tariffs helpful to the US government budget? Yes? But at
what expense? And if the consumer is getting caught in
the crossfire and they don't have enough money and prices
(33:15):
are going up, it's not really achieving its goal.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
The other thing though, Kerry, I gotta, I gotta throw
this out, and I think Professor Staller has seen the
same statistic. They're suggesting that this Christmas season, and it's
a short Christmas shopping season because Thanksgiving was so late,
that'd be the first trillion dollar shopping seas Christmas shopping
season in history, which doesn't quite compute with me, but
(33:42):
that's what I'm hearing.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
I couldn't agree with you more absolutely.
Speaker 8 (33:48):
Well.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
One of the things that I heard Van and Professor
is people are buying rest but because it costs more.
That's what you're seeing.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Overall.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Let's hope it gets better for all of us. Terry,
I got to more. I got to get to if
I can, So I'm going to let you go for now.
But again, please have a great Christmas and hopefully next
year will be better than twenty twenty five. Okay.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
I hope Kelly Larry that.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
You focused on a die out in the store, so
I got to let you go as well. Thanks so much.
Let me go to Nancy and Duxbury. Nancy, you're next
with Professor Gregory Staller of Boston University Questrom School of Business.
Speaker 8 (34:25):
Go ahead, Nancy, Yes, good evening, Dan, how are you?
Speaker 2 (34:29):
We're doing great? Say had a professor Staller?
Speaker 8 (34:32):
Hello, professor, how are you this? Evening him?
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Nancy? Happy holidays?
Speaker 8 (34:36):
Happy holidays. Here's one for you. How can we undo this?
The Massachusetts State Auditor Diana Dizaglio. I don't think I'm
pronouncing your name correctly.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
No, you are, go right ahead.
Speaker 8 (34:49):
He's been attempting to audit the legislature. Now we're talking
about finances here, so if we want to do something,
we have to get behind and ad action that will
actually produce some results.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
Okay, by the.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Way, I was passed by the vote, as I'm sure
you know, Nancy was passed by the voters in a.
Speaker 8 (35:09):
Referenote exactly, Thank you, Dan. And I am weary and
tired of hearing people pontificate on this or that about
the tariff, which I'm holding my tongue on that because
I've got faith that things are getting better. We just
(35:32):
can't see it quickly because we had four years of hell.
That's just my opinion. But right now in this state
we need a class action suite.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
Dan.
Speaker 8 (35:41):
When is that going to happen? And what do you
think about that?
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Professor?
Speaker 8 (35:45):
To get this audit done? That we voted for.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
I have talked about a class action suit with Diana
de Zuglia on this very program. The Attorney general in
Massachusetts is fighting against the voters of Massachusetts and against
Diana Dezaglia. And they're both Massachusetts Democrats. But Diana Desauglia
is gonna fight in this one, and you stick with
us in twenty six it'll be one of our priorities
(36:10):
here on nightside.
Speaker 6 (36:11):
Nancy, I prompt, well, you've got my you've got my vote.
Speaker 8 (36:14):
I'll do whatever I can to help.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Keep listening to this program, telling you neighbors about it,
and keep calling. Thanks. Nancy talks soon, Merry.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Christmas, Merry Christmas. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
We're gonna take one more call here, Professor, and then
we're gonna let you begin the weekend. We got Bob
and Rhode Island. Bob, we're tight on time. Go right ahead,
you're on, Professor Gregory Stalin.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
Okay, Buddy, Okay, Dan, Yeah, right. I predict the stock ball.
It's gonna go down. And it's not just today, it's
gonna keep going down because you got the clown. We're
running try and get rid of the Federal Reserve chairman.
A few months ago. His policies are not working. It's
(36:54):
not just finance, it's all thanks to He's gonna voad
the problems and thank god, he'll be out of here
in the three more years. It doesn't get him.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, the Democrats have tried that a couple of times
without success. I'm not shutting. They're going back.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
They're gonna be successful.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Let's find.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Bob. I'll tell you what. Don't hold your breath on
that one, but great to hear your voice is always okay.
You're gonna have to hold your breath now because you're
going in the water.
Speaker 6 (37:22):
Go ahead, but.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
Have a good swim. Bob, hold your breath until you
pop back up. Oh god, Bob is no matter what
we're talking about, it always comes back. He's he's Donald
Trump is living in this guy's head rent free, which
is kind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Of crazy, but that's okay.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
He's invery eminently predictable. But remember you'll heard it with him.
The stock market's gonna go down. I think it's going
down from uh, I'm gonna guess he thinks he's probably
go down about three hundred points, not not go down
three hundred, but go down to three hundred points anyway, Uh,
there'll be some buying opportunities. Professor Stallers always, thank you
so much. I love talking to you, and we'll have
(38:06):
to do something right after the first of the year
and get it get a outlook.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
I think it's great and I just wanted to quickly
in the time we have left with you and your
family and all of your listeners a happy holiday season,
safe and healthy.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
Right back at you whatever, you and your family. We
have one of those mixed families where we celebrate Hanukah
and Christmas and maybe we'll celebrate Kwansa as well. So
I wish you a happy Honica, Merry Christmas and a
bunch of a Kwanza and a happy Festivus as well.
Speaker 3 (38:37):
I've got to cover everything absolutely. Thanks again for the opportunity. Dan,
have a good evening. I enjoy your twentieth hour.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Stay safe into the new year. Good travel. You're going
to Brazil, I think, and I think you said.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Yes, We're headed too Brazil in January, where we're trying
a new model that we started last year. We're actually
going there before the students arrived to interview the executives
right if the cases, take some video footage and really
try and bring what's happening on the ground to the
student's perspective before they get on a plane and go
and talk to the CEO's direction.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
If every professor in every business school in America head
your passion, your enthusiam has none of the politicians could
miss the economy up.
Speaker 3 (39:19):
Much.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
Professor Gregg Staller of the Question School of Business at
Boston University, I want to know twentieth hour, what is
your your your must see TV show? For me, it's Tracker.
I want to get a good sample of what my
audience is thinking about back on nights side right after
this
He's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm WBSY, Boston's Meet Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thank you, Thank you very much, Ale Griffin. As we
work our way through the ten o'clock hour, we're going
to talk with Professor Greg Staller of Boston University question
School of Business. Professor Staller, Welcome back to Nightside. How
are you sir?
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Good?
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Thanks Dan, how are you good?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We always enjoy talking with you. You have taught for many,
many years, and one of the things that is always
interesting to me is that you have led a lot
of your students on trips to various parts of the world,
but many trips to China. So you are as hands
on a business school professor as I know. How many
(00:44):
trips have you taken to China with your students at
wherever you are teaching you now, of course at Boston University, I.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Have taken students to China fifty six times, and in
March of next year as part of one of our courses,
that will be trip number fifty seven.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
But you're now going to other countries as well. You
have really focused on China for a well better part
of three decades at this point, but you're going to
now branch out and take students to I understand that
a South American nation.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yes, we are heading to Brazil twice, once in January
to write new cases, and then another time in June
of next year. This will accommodate the thirty year of
an annual competition where we've had one hundred plus teams
from thirty eight universities in twenty countries that are competing,
and we've nunded down to the top six and that's
(01:41):
going to happen in June of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
So what is the advantage for business school students to
spend part of their term while in business school, which
normally is a two year term, in an overseas activity.
These have to be students who are interested in doing
business with the countries where you are taking them. Or
is this a procedure and a process to broaden their
(02:07):
mind that the world is a very big place, that
we represent a significant part of the world economy, we
are not the total part of the world economy.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
No. I think it's a little bit of both, in
the sense that I'm very fortunate to be at Boston University,
where we have over eighteen different colleges that make up
the university itself, and that could be the School of Theology,
the School of Dentistry, and obviously business. And as much
as I try and be energetic and animated inside the classroom,
I'm constrained by the fact that it is a four
(02:37):
walled classroom. And even with guest speakers and zoom and
everything else, there's nothing like bringing students to the belly
of the proverbial economic beast, where you're going to talk
with industry leaders, you're given consulting recommendations, and really understanding
what's happening on the ground.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
So let's come back to the US. We've talked two
or three times this year. One of the big economic
ventures that the administration President Trump's administration has involved themselves
in is tariffs. And my recollection is that last April,
when he had the so called Liberation Day on April
(03:18):
second and he announced the tariffs, there was a lot
of fear and which was palpable, and the stock market
took a huge hit in April as a consequence of
that fear that the tariffs were not the right direction
to go. It's still debated, but it looks to me
like so far the US has netted two hundred and
(03:43):
thirty billion dollars in tariffs. That's a big number, but
it is a very small percentage of the GDP and
even a smaller percentage of our federal debt. As you
look back on this tariff program, is it is it
a mixed bag of results? Is it better than you expected?
(04:05):
Is it worse than you expected? It hasn't had the
adverse impact that initially had in the market. That's the
one thing that I think we know for sure correct.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
So let's look at this and unpack at piece by piece. Right,
the Dow Jones Industrial average.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
Year to date.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I know today wasn't such a great day because of
concerned about AI bubble, but it's up fourteen percent yearter date.
The NASDAC is up twenty two percent. The Dow, by
the way, is doing better at the end of twenty
twenty five than it was comparably a year ago. NASDAC
a little bit worse. Prices I estimate are up one
(04:42):
point two percent in the short term. And I think
you hit the nail on the head is that if
you think about tariffs right, they're one specific stream within
the broader umbrella of customs and excise taxes, right, And
depending on which news or consult those have ed have
(05:02):
met in customs and excise taxes as a whole one
hundred billion to two hundred and nineteen billion. I know
you're going to tell me the one hundred billion is
not you know, not an insign have to get round
the error. But but it is up one hundred and
thirty percent compared with historical federal receipts from customs and exercises.
(05:23):
But to your point, it's a tiny, tiny percentage of
the USGVP.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Yeah, it's not going to make a huge dent in
the in the in the national debt, in the federal debt,
but it's better than than nothing. What sort of a
grade would you give, you know, as a professor his idea.
I mean, he was very aggressive with tariffs. Now he's
backed off a lot of countries. It looks like it's
(05:54):
very classic Donald Trump in that he's writing one hundred
deals simultaneously. It sounds like that's what makes him get
up in the morning. Or Am I missing something?
Speaker 3 (06:05):
No? I mean, I think at the risk and founding trite,
I think it depends on what side of the fence
you're on, right, Is that if you're looking at it
from the Republican and I always tell you on your show,
and I, by the way, thank you again for the opportunity.
But I don't talk about religion and politics in my classroom.
I'm just not qualified to do that. But you know,
(06:25):
if you're looking for quote unquote Republican domination, then you
probably give him an A in the sense that he
has increased a year from you know, prior one hundred
and thirty percent increase in money that's coming into the
federal coppers.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
Right.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
If you're looking at it from a consumer perspective, I
think it would probably be a B minus or a
C plus, because yes, you have helped a number of
I guess us companies, but at what risk in the
sense that all of us as the lowly consumer, not
the not the you know, brilliant professor, if you will,
(07:04):
I'm being sarcastic. You know, prices are way up. I
went it was very cold yesterday in Boston. I didn't
get listeners all over the country, but I went to
get a simple, you know, cup bowl of ramen soup.
But one of the local places right near my office.
It was eighteen dollars and a year ago that would
have easily been twelve or thirteen dollars. So I'm not
(07:25):
so sure from the consumer's perspective that this has been
such a great success.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
So okay, can you and you have a better ability
to do this than I. Can you correlate the tariffs
and whatever goes into that ramen soup to justify a
fifty percent increase? Or is this the business? Is this
the business is saying, ah, we have an opportunity to
point fingers and actually increase our profit margin by a
(07:52):
significant number and blame it on something that really is
not the cause of the cause of the increase in price.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
That there lies the tip of the argument. Right. I've
been fortunate enough to be on your show in April
twenty second of this year than July fifteenth, And you know,
the consumers aren't stupid, right, and neither are the producers.
The consumers are going to say, hmm, is it really
important to have eighteen dollars ramen every day? Clearly not.
It was just cold yesterday, right, But the average producer
(08:26):
has managed to bob and weed and is doing things
in a way that's saying, you know, something, we're outside
of the United States, will no longer sell our goods
to the US, will sell them to Canada, will sell
them to Mexico, will sell them to Indonesia. It doesn't
really matter. We just won't do business with the United States.
And that's unfortunately. What happens is that a lot of
(08:48):
these producers that we as consumers are used to getting
comparatively cheap stuff from right that's not coming into our
online portals anymore. That's not coming into brick and mortar stores.
Those producers are going elsewhere because they have to pay rent,
they have to put food on the table as well.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
So what you're saying is that you're ram and soup yesterday.
As an economist, you looked at it and you said,
this is a reasonable price. I, on the other hand,
follow very closely the price of cookies, particularly things like
Oreos and Pepperidge Farm cookies, and I'm convinced. I know
that cocoa and chocolate have gone up somewhat in price
(09:30):
for unrelated to tariffs, by the way, weather conditions in
South America's I understand it, but I still believe that
a lot of the cookie producers that they have stayed,
they have kept their prices up unnecessarily I've seen, for example,
the price of eggs, which had gone up dramatically, starting
(09:51):
to come back down. I don't know if you're an
egg purchaser at stores, but I can get a dozen
eggs now for two ninety nine, and that's it's fairly
much more reasonable than well, it's much.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
More economical than it was six or eight months ago.
I mean, and there it lies another problem in this analysis, right.
I wish we could say that automatically, all prices are
going to go off by x percent or all prices
are going to go down by y percent. To your point,
it's very specific. It's industry specific, it's product specific. And
the question is as a consumer, yeah, I mean, if
(10:26):
you could save two dollars on eggs, would it be
worth spending more money and gas to travel an extra
couple of miles to I don't know market basket as
opposed to Roach Brothers. I think that that becomes a
very consumer specific decision. But I can't refute the fact
that life is just expensive these days. It's just far
(10:47):
more expensive to me than it feels like it was
a year ago. And whether that's just general inflation, I
don't know, but it's a little bit scary for those
of us who have kids in college, your kids in
graduate school. It doesn't exactly allow you to sleep peacefully
at night, because it's fear of the uncertain.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
All right. My guest is Professor Gregory Staller of Boston
University Question School of Business. If you'd like to join
the conversation, feel free six one, seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty.
I have lots of questions, and of course Professor Staller
always has great answers, but I'd love to incorporate you
into the conversation. Feel free to join the conversation back
(11:28):
right after this quick break on a cold New England
Friday night, December, middle of December edition of Nightside.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
You're on night Side with Dan Ray on w BZY,
Boston's news.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Radio with Me. It's Professor Gregory Stoller, Boston University Question
School of Business. Professor Stallo has been a guest in
this program over the years many times, and he's someone
who explains economics very clearly, which I can't say that
about every economist who i've professor, So please take that
(12:01):
as the ultimate compliment. President Trump obviously was focused on
tariffs in April. His focus is still there, but he
has begun to focus on things like Venezuela. So there's
a lot of activity the Middle East, Ukraine. It has
been a He's had a very parapatetic presidency, and I
(12:22):
suspect you probably would agree with me on.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
That point one hundred percent. I think that he has
a lot of energy and I do think he has
the country's best interest at heart, but he tends to
go from project to project and is very intensely focused
on something. But I think like any chief executive, whether
that be a politician or a company CEO, you have
to sort of bob and weed depending on what's happening
(12:48):
in the broader environment around you.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Okay, So, now, knowing that the stock market had a
bad day today and has had a few bad days
in the last few months, but it has tended to
bounce back overall. As you look at two and twenty
six and you take everything into consideration, which includes what
the Fed did yesterday, we've now cut I think it's
(13:13):
a point and a half in the last fifteen months.
Do you look at twenty twenty twenty six, forget the
politics of a moment, do you look at at at
a at a time where we're going to feel better
about the economy generally halfway through twenty twenty six, or
(13:34):
do you feel that this I don't want to use
the word malaise because that's a word that is it's
a very loaded word. But the anxiety that the American
public has been showing in the last few months is
going to either continue or intensify.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
I mean, at the risk of sounding generic, I think
everything's going to revert to the proverbial mean. And what
I mean by that, then attended, is that people get
to figure it out. And I think that would be
my ps if I were reporting on twenty twenty five.
It was very tumultuous in April or May, and I
think people were genuinely concerned, whether you're a company owner
(14:14):
or whether you're a consumer. People figured it out, and
I had predicted on your show, because I reviewed the
transcription preparation for tonight, that everything was going to calm down.
I wouldn't say that it was economic malaise, but I
think that people are going to go on to the
next crisis. And I think that as long as prices
(14:35):
are in check, and that's what I worry about more
than anything else. Right, it's that one point two percent.
You know, you can call this whatever you want again,
you know, putting on my economics hat inflation overshoot, which is,
you know, a one time effect, not ongoing inflation pressure.
I think if we're able to whether that storm, it's
(14:58):
going to be business as here as you in the
first half of the second half of twenty six. If, however,
we engage in this whip saw, like you know, issues
where the dollar is up four hundred points one day,
down four hundred points the next day, you know, pick
whatever poison you want today. Happened to be AI last
week with XYZ. That's going to cause consumers to be
(15:20):
a little bit rattled. And of course in the back
of everyone's mind is going to be the midterm elections.
And you and I have spoken Dan on air off
air over the years, is that most consumers might not
be able to explain what the laugh of curve is
or the J curve and economics, but they are able
to vote with their pocketbooks, and if things are going well,
they will probably keep the current politicians in office. If
(15:42):
things aren't going well, regardless of whether it's an economic
truism or not they will vote for a different party.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Oh no, no question, no question. So one of the
things that seem to be going well for the Trump administration,
which should have an impact across the board, is gasoline prices.
How do you explain why gasoline prices and the price
(16:09):
of oil has stayed down and has gone down pretty
consistently this year in a year when there was a
great deal of fluctuation in other markets. What's going on.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Thereat great question. I would think that when the tariff
issue broke in April, I think a lot of the
companies were willing to absorb the losses so they wouldn't
have to pass the price increase directly onto consumers. And
I think as we got into the middle of this
calendar year, and I would say up until maybe mid
(16:46):
T three or the beginning of Q four, I think
that companies were continuing to absorb it, and that's why
prices haven't dramatically increased. Gas being a perfect example. Again,
you just asked about twenty twenty six. That's partially what
keeps me up at night. Our company is going to
have an epipody in early twenty six saying what the
heck are we doing. Why would we want to continue
(17:09):
subsidizing our consumers. Let's just pass ten percent of the
increase twenty percent of the increase onto the consumer, assuming
by the way, that prices have continued to increase. That's
what worries me. But you're right for the moment, looked
at you know, through the myopic lens of today, December twelfth,
gas prices are hovering around three bucks a gallon, and
(17:32):
you're not expecting that to be because of the.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Tariffs, and even with what's going on in Venezuela, which
is a big oil producer, right, there hasn't been a blip.
I thought that a blip might occur as a consequence,
particularly of what happened yesterday with the capture of the.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Thing of the tanker and everything else. And I think
that's again the same storyline, right, you know, what about this?
What about that? You know, don't forget about that. The
fact of the matter is, no matter what, the US
consumer has been able to weather the storm. And I
think your example of a few minutes ago before the
break on eggs is a perfect example. It's shot up
(18:13):
because everyone was concerned. Everyone said, uh, oh, you know,
let's stop buying eggs, and very quietly it reverted to normal,
the same way that a lot of other prices have
reverted to normal. And note that I said prices are
up one point two percent, not eight pointy two percent,
because the US consumer figures it out, and by the way,
the producers of those eggs or or those oil refineries,
(18:36):
et cetera, they figure it out to comment, thank you
very much.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
By the way, on the eggs prices, there also was
a bird flu epidemic that was simultaneous with the tariffs.
And I think that the bird flu, the avian flu
academic which was not as bad as I guess might
some have been projected. But egg production is back to
(18:59):
where it was. And I think that's the correlation on
the on the price drop and the and the and
the tariffs did not have the impact on eggs that
we would have expected because I guess we produce a
lot of eggs in this country.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Well, I think that's the iority of this, Right is,
in any calendar year, there's always going to be some
sort of crisis.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
It could be OPEC deciding to increase production or hotail production.
It could be a bird flu, it could be some
exogenous factor.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
But that's what's been so unique about the tariffs is
this isn't an unexpected crisis. This is in many cases
a planned crisis.
Speaker 6 (19:41):
Right.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
But yet, in spite of it being a planned crisis,
once again, the US consumer has weathered the storm. And
I think that's what makes it fascinating, as long as
I don't have to go for rob and soup every
day for eighteen dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Okay, well, well let's have to forget about the rom
and soup for a while. Look, we got to take
a news break, which you know we do. When we
get back, I want to talk about some secondary impact.
I also want to get to phones. Patrick and Terror
you stay right there. You're gonna be first up six one, seven, two,
five four ten thirty six one seven, nine three one,
(20:15):
ten thirty. We got a couple of lines there on
one line at six one, seven, two, five, four to
ten thirty. We're beginning at eleven o'clock. Twenty seven minutes
from now, we're gonna go into our twentieth hour. We
will say good night to Professor Staller and again, if
you would love to chat with chat with an actual
Boston University School of Business business, Professor, this is your opportunity.
(20:40):
I really appreciate Professor Staller being with us. We'll be
back on night Side right after.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
This Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
We will go to phone calls right away. But I
have one final question, and that is one of the
potential positive impact of the tariffs were that some American
companies might have been induced to bring businesses back to
this country and build manufacturing plants back in this country.
(21:15):
What is the evidence of that at this point, again,
we're seven months after the implementation of the tariffs. Are
there companies that have decided to bring particularly car manufacturing
back to this country?
Speaker 3 (21:28):
Professor Jef These are very much works in progress. But again,
you know how much do we want to separate the
week from the chap Have these happened because of the
tariffs or have these happen because of trade deals that
President Trump is negotiating. I think it's too soon to tell,
but I will tell you that very quietly, there is
(21:48):
more and more activity where non US manufacturers are bringing
manufacturing back to the United States. But remember, the whole
point of a tariff is to protet that's an existing
US manufacturer. It's not I liked when you use the
word induce, but you know, again, pick whatever side of
the fence you want to be on. Are you providing
(22:11):
consumers with more choices by having non US manufacturers come
into the United States? Possibly? If you're supposed to solely
focus on US manufacturers, has it been working? I don't know.
You know, why is there a twelve billion dollar subsidy
that's happening to farmer bridge payments? Supposedly the talents we're
(22:32):
supposed to you know, foresee that happening. That's the challenge.
That's the challenge.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Well, the other question in my mind, and I switched,
I said, I don't knowing you probably would know this.
Do those twelve dollars? Does that twelve billion dollars in
bridge payments which would be taken from I assume the
the net increase in tariffs. Does that make the farmer's
whole or is that simply a percentage of what they should.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
Have I had the same exact quit. It's funny you
say that, Dan, I have the same exact question. Is
that positioning them to where they would have been or
should have been? In mid December twenty twenty five, I
don't think it's saying, Hm, that's great, here's some extra
income going into the holiday season. I think it's an
attempt to make them whole. But again, to give President
(23:24):
Trump some props here the fact that tariffs have netted
so much money. It's not like he has to borrow
money from the treasury in an effort to make those
bridge favorites. It's clearly coming in to those same coffers,
whether it be customers of XCIS or Carraff, revenue isolated.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Every time I talk to you, Professor, I wish he
had studied economics more in school. I really think that
it was a much more interesting, inherently interesting topic than
it was ever presented that way to me.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
While you probably had far more fun on the weekends
than I had when I was in school, I don't.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Know about that. Okay, let's let's keep rolling here. We'll
leave that out of it. Let me go to Patrick
in not in the Belly of the Beast, in the
District of Columbia. Patrick, welcome back to Nightside. I've been
missing you, buddy. How are you?
Speaker 7 (24:14):
I've been missing you and I wanted to join in
on this conversation, especially for the holidays, Professor. All I
can see right now is for Pen's Wharton School of
Business and for Harvard's Business School.
Speaker 8 (24:27):
Move over, Boston, you is here, right, professor.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Thank you very much. Yes, no terriers. Well we got it.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
I'm a laws I'm a Boston University law school guy.
So I got to jump into the fray here and
defend the Commonwealth Avenue institution. That is that is for sure.
All those people over in Harvard they just did this.
They're waking in their boots right now.
Speaker 6 (24:51):
But the Commerce Department is reporting that we have a
trade deficit that has narrowed a little bit here, and
would you go ahead and p dead into what has happened,
because they're saying that this is the first thing that
the first trade the narrowing of the trade deficits since
twenty twenty, and the first pandemic. And so we have
(25:12):
some well we have imports they say went zero point
six percent, but to the overall deficit fell ten point
nine percent. How do you think do you think this
is working out?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
I mean, and again I don't want to appear tonight
to be you know, borrowing a phrase from from French
side to pond and depends but I think you really
have to look at it through different lenses. Right, If
the president of the country is supposed to represent constituents,
simply represent constituents, then I'm not so sure that tariffs
(25:48):
are working so well because prices have gone up and
the Federal reserve vent can only you know, can only
control inflation so much. Obviously, they're under increasing amounts of
pressure from President Trump to lower those interest rates. If
you're looking at it from a trade deficit perspective, yeah,
it's been a huge success. It's been a huge success.
(26:08):
If you're looking at it from that perspective, you've got
to give President Trump not one high five, but two,
because clearly the deficit is shrinking. Okay, yeah, I see
that too.
Speaker 6 (26:20):
But would you also add in there with the high
prices from the consumer side, maybe the retailers have jumped
on the bandwagon for terraffs and raised price it's just
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
More issue as well.
Speaker 3 (26:34):
We would literally, patter, we were just talking about that
before you called in. You know, that brings into mind ethics.
In a year that the economy hasn't been great outside
of the stoft market performance, would you begrudge anybody from
being a little bit predatory with their pricing. Probably not.
(26:54):
Is it the right thing to do? Of course, it's
not the right thing to do. But as I said
to them at the top of the hour, life is
not a four wall business school classroom. Life is survival
and business is war, and you have to do what
you can to protect your own slice of Americana. So
am I happy that people are maybe taking a little
bit of advantage of that. No, I'm not happy. But
(27:16):
the fact of the matter is it's happening more than
I think all of us would care to admit. You know,
by the way, several years ago, and you know, when
Governor Romney was the governor of Massachusetts, he raised a
bunch of fees because he said, we needed to cover
those fees. And he said, you know, and we all fit,
are those fees ever going to come back down? And
(27:37):
of course they're not going to come back down here.
Once you grease speeds, you're never going to decrease them, right,
So are people going to lower these prices after the
paroff war ends? Of course they're not. But you just
have to figure it out.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
But the consumer can strike back, and the consumer individually
and collectively can say, guess what, you know, those Pepper
Farms cookies that I used to buy, you know, at
two fifty or two ninety nine, they're four ninety nine.
I can I can buy other cookies and be just
as happy.
Speaker 3 (28:09):
I mean, you are, absolutely And I keep using the
stupid example of the ramen noodle soup. It's gonna be
a cold day, and you know what, before I ever
pay another stink at eighteen dollars for a loop, well
you know, I'll drink seventeen cups of tea, which that's
not gonna rise to eight dollars. But all joking aside.
That's the problem, right, is that how much are the
(28:30):
consumer is going to strike back? And then all of
a sudden what people expected in terms of the revenue
forecast isn't going to come to bear because people just
don't want to spend the extra money.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Great point there, Thanks Patrick, Patrick. I hope to talk
to you before Christmas. If not, Merry Christmas, okay, but
I hope to talk to you more often. Thanks buddy.
All right, bye bye, Thank you, mich We take a
very quick break. We're gonna keep rolling it and we're
gonna get everybody in six and seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty one line there six one seven nine
(29:03):
three one ten thirty one line there. We're flipping it
at eleven o'clock. We're going to twenty hour, and I
want to know your favorite you must see TV show.
I'm going to tell Professor Staller right now, you know
what show I really have become addicted to. Professor, Do
(29:25):
you have a watch the show Tracker on Sunday nights?
Speaker 3 (29:29):
It's really exciting. Yes, I love it.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
I do too. I just think it's intellectually stimulating. You can.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
I don't watch a lot of TV, and I happen
to love that.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
I think all right, great minds, think like very right
back on Nightside, here we go, coming back right after
the break.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
It's night Side with Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
Let's go to Terry down in the Cape. Hey, Terry, welcome.
You're with my guest, Professor Gregory Staller of Boston University Questionroom,
School of Business. Go ahead, Terry.
Speaker 5 (30:03):
IDA am nice to speak with you, and Merry Christmas
to you and all your loved ones. Professor, I am
very honored to speak to you. I am not an
economic major by any means, but I'm a practical, realistic person.
And I'm out there down here on Cape Cod in Harwich,
(30:26):
and I'm talking to the seniors. The seniors they are
on fixed incomes. And I'm looking around down in Hyannas
the right side of the street on Main Street. I'm
talking about closed stores, not just for the seasons. They're
out of business. People can't pay utilities, they can't pay
(30:51):
the cost of hiring employees, healthcare benefits for oh one case,
YadA YadA, closed for good. And nobody's going in to
start up my little town in Harwich that has like
fifteen thousand residents. We right now have an eighty three
(31:14):
million dollar deficit, and we had a fifty one million
dollar school budget, a forty five million dollar town budget,
and we're doing a two hundred and fifty million dollar
waste water project. Well, I can't even get my head
(31:36):
around those kinds of heroes.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
I think we got to get some different people in
public office down there. Sounds to be like, well.
Speaker 5 (31:44):
This didn't just happen yesterday, Dan by any.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Means no, No, I understand that. But who has been
elected these spen rifts?
Speaker 5 (31:54):
Has it been going on for over twenty years?
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (31:58):
I know, we have, well the things we have a
triple A blunch reading, and everybody says the budget is wonderful. Yeah,
oh they're doing is borrowing. It's not wonderful.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
No, I'm with you, Terry. I'm totally with you, professor.
Other than getting a lot of different people, I mean,
it sounds I get a bunch of spend thrifts down there.
But go ahead, professor, what advice?
Speaker 5 (32:25):
I mean?
Speaker 3 (32:26):
I don't think I'm necessarily qualified to talk about town finances,
but I think that the you know, in theory, the
tariffs are supposed to insulate those very small businesses on
the Cape that are going to protect them and have
people go to shop locally as opposed to going online.
(32:46):
It doesn't sound like that's working too well so far.
Speaker 5 (32:49):
Yeah, well the people aren't chopping at all because they
don't have any money.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
Well that's and that's what Dan and I were talking
about earlier this hour, is that I think again, are
tariffs helpful to the US government budget? Yes? But at
what expense? And if the consumer is getting caught in
the crossfire and they don't have enough money and prices
(33:15):
are going up, it's not really achieving its goal.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
The other thing though, Kerry, I gotta, I gotta throw
this out, and I think Professor Staller has seen the
same statistic. They're suggesting that this Christmas season, and it's
a short Christmas shopping season because Thanksgiving was so late,
that'd be the first trillion dollar shopping seas Christmas shopping
season in history, which doesn't quite compute with me, but
(33:42):
that's what I'm hearing.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
I couldn't agree with you more absolutely.
Speaker 8 (33:48):
Well.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
One of the things that I heard Van and Professor
is people are buying rest but because it costs more.
That's what you're seeing.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Overall.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Let's hope it gets better for all of us. Terry,
I got to more. I got to get to if
I can, So I'm going to let you go for now.
But again, please have a great Christmas and hopefully next
year will be better than twenty twenty five. Okay.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
I hope Kelly Larry that.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
You focused on a die out in the store, so
I got to let you go as well. Thanks so much.
Let me go to Nancy and Duxbury. Nancy, you're next
with Professor Gregory Staller of Boston University Questrom School of Business.
Speaker 8 (34:25):
Go ahead, Nancy, Yes, good evening, Dan, how are you?
Speaker 2 (34:29):
We're doing great? Say had a professor Staller?
Speaker 8 (34:32):
Hello, professor, how are you this? Evening him?
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Nancy? Happy holidays?
Speaker 8 (34:36):
Happy holidays. Here's one for you. How can we undo this?
The Massachusetts State Auditor Diana Dizaglio. I don't think I'm
pronouncing your name correctly.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
No, you are, go right ahead.
Speaker 8 (34:49):
He's been attempting to audit the legislature. Now we're talking
about finances here, so if we want to do something,
we have to get behind and ad action that will
actually produce some results.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
Okay, by the.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Way, I was passed by the vote, as I'm sure
you know, Nancy was passed by the voters in a.
Speaker 8 (35:09):
Referenote exactly, Thank you, Dan. And I am weary and
tired of hearing people pontificate on this or that about
the tariff, which I'm holding my tongue on that because
I've got faith that things are getting better. We just
(35:32):
can't see it quickly because we had four years of hell.
That's just my opinion. But right now in this state
we need a class action suite.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
Dan.
Speaker 8 (35:41):
When is that going to happen? And what do you
think about that?
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Professor?
Speaker 8 (35:45):
To get this audit done? That we voted for.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
I have talked about a class action suit with Diana
de Zuglia on this very program. The Attorney general in
Massachusetts is fighting against the voters of Massachusetts and against
Diana Dezaglia. And they're both Massachusetts Democrats. But Diana Desauglia
is gonna fight in this one, and you stick with
us in twenty six it'll be one of our priorities
(36:10):
here on nightside.
Speaker 6 (36:11):
Nancy, I prompt, well, you've got my you've got my vote.
Speaker 8 (36:14):
I'll do whatever I can to help.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Keep listening to this program, telling you neighbors about it,
and keep calling. Thanks. Nancy talks soon, Merry.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Christmas, Merry Christmas. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
We're gonna take one more call here, Professor, and then
we're gonna let you begin the weekend. We got Bob
and Rhode Island. Bob, we're tight on time. Go right ahead,
you're on, Professor Gregory Stalin.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
Okay, Buddy, Okay, Dan, Yeah, right. I predict the stock ball.
It's gonna go down. And it's not just today, it's
gonna keep going down because you got the clown. We're
running try and get rid of the Federal Reserve chairman.
A few months ago. His policies are not working. It's
(36:54):
not just finance, it's all thanks to He's gonna voad
the problems and thank god, he'll be out of here
in the three more years. It doesn't get him.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, the Democrats have tried that a couple of times
without success. I'm not shutting. They're going back.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
They're gonna be successful.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Let's find.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Bob. I'll tell you what. Don't hold your breath on
that one, but great to hear your voice is always okay.
You're gonna have to hold your breath now because you're
going in the water.
Speaker 6 (37:22):
Go ahead, but.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
Have a good swim. Bob, hold your breath until you
pop back up. Oh god, Bob is no matter what
we're talking about, it always comes back. He's he's Donald
Trump is living in this guy's head rent free, which
is kind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Of crazy, but that's okay.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
He's invery eminently predictable. But remember you'll heard it with him.
The stock market's gonna go down. I think it's going
down from uh, I'm gonna guess he thinks he's probably
go down about three hundred points, not not go down
three hundred, but go down to three hundred points anyway, Uh,
there'll be some buying opportunities. Professor Stallers always, thank you
so much. I love talking to you, and we'll have
(38:06):
to do something right after the first of the year
and get it get a outlook.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
I think it's great and I just wanted to quickly
in the time we have left with you and your
family and all of your listeners a happy holiday season,
safe and healthy.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
Right back at you whatever, you and your family. We
have one of those mixed families where we celebrate Hanukah
and Christmas and maybe we'll celebrate Kwansa as well. So
I wish you a happy Honica, Merry Christmas and a
bunch of a Kwanza and a happy Festivus as well.
Speaker 3 (38:37):
I've got to cover everything absolutely. Thanks again for the opportunity. Dan,
have a good evening. I enjoy your twentieth hour.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Stay safe into the new year. Good travel. You're going
to Brazil, I think, and I think you said.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Yes, We're headed too Brazil in January, where we're trying
a new model that we started last year. We're actually
going there before the students arrived to interview the executives
right if the cases, take some video footage and really
try and bring what's happening on the ground to the
student's perspective before they get on a plane and go
and talk to the CEO's direction.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
If every professor in every business school in America head
your passion, your enthusiam has none of the politicians could
miss the economy up.
Speaker 3 (39:19):
Much.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
Professor Gregg Staller of the Question School of Business at
Boston University, I want to know twentieth hour, what is
your your your must see TV show? For me, it's Tracker.
I want to get a good sample of what my
audience is thinking about back on nights side right after
this
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