October 22, 2024 • 39 mins
Millions of voters have already cast their ballots as the 2024 presidential election heads into its final stretch. What are the polls saying? Averages are reflecting that neither candidate is decisively in the lead. To sort it all out, Dan welcomed Emerson College Pollster Spencer Kimball.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
It's night with Dan Ray. I'm telling you easy Boston's Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
All Right, we are two weeks away, two weeks away
from the from the election of twenty twenty four. The
election has seemed to have been two years away, four
years away, or ten years away, and now it's on
our doorstep with us as Spencer Kimball a polster at
(00:30):
Emerson College, and again I talk at the troiker posters,
posters that I believe in, and Spencer is right there
with Dave Paleologus and John Zogby and what what what's
your What do you got at this point, Spencer that
there's so many numbers here that would make your head spin.
(00:52):
How do you I'm not going to ask you who's
going to win, because obviously if the election, election is
not being held today, But what what's the trend? What
do you see? What do your sense? What do you feel?
Everybody I'm sure has a rooting interest of some sort.
Your rooting interest is to be as accurate as possible.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Correct, You got it, Dan, and thanks again for having
me as always. Well, it's an exciting time two weeks
out from the election, particularly in this race that obviously
got shaken up over the summer, when President Biden drops
out and the vice president jumps in, we saw a
lot of movement in those numbers going in the democrats favor. Now,
(01:34):
it seems over the last four or five weeks they've
been floating back into the Republican's favor, at least at
the presidential level. Some of the congressional races have swung
in different ways, but at the presidential level, it seems
generally across these states they started to trend back towards
(01:55):
Trump after him losing ground when Harris initially jumped in.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Well, I'm looking at five point thirty eight, which is
kind of a composite side of the different polls, and
I look at this the favorable unfavorable. This is the
combined polls favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. So
(02:21):
on January first this year, his unfavorable is fifty two
point five percent. His favorable was four point two six percent,
just about a nine point nine percent spread. The latest
composite basically has his unfavorable a nine point two percent
(02:43):
spread in the wrong direction. So his unfavorable really hasn't
moved much if we use January first, you know, as
a as a starting point. I'm just picking a number
that you know, he was ten point five unfavorable. Excuse me,
a ten point five difference he was his unfavorable was
(03:04):
fifty two point seven. His favorable was forty two point two.
So again that's a ten point five difference. Now, as
of I guess the nineteenth of October, which would have
been Saturday, his unfavorables nine point two. Not much of
a swing there. And yet if you look at Kamala Harris,
(03:32):
the same sort of set of circumstances, where can I
find her?
Speaker 4 (03:37):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (03:38):
I got her here. All of a sudden, she has
had a precipitous drop. Her unfavorable was as high as
sixteen point eight percent in late June, their unfavorable rating
(04:00):
and her favorle rating was only thirty six. Now you
get all the way to today her her unfavorable rating
is forty seven point two and her favorable is forty
six point five, almost the same. So that on that
it would look as if Harris should win because her
(04:22):
favorable unfavorable is pretty closest, so kind of a forty
seven to forty seven split, where Trump still has a
ninety's nine points to the negative.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Well, there's a lot of unpacked there, Dan.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah, absolutely, So go ahead.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
We got to remember eight years ago, when Donald Trump's running,
his favorability is at forty percent. So over the course
of the last eight years, essentially his favorability number has
gone up one point every year. And it's almost says
if America has grown more accustomed to Trump and his
number has gone up. So that's a bit of an
(05:01):
issue for the Democrats this cycle, as compared to twenty sixteen,
when you have that messaging where it's more negative on Trump.
Here he's got a more favorable rating than what we've
seen anytime in his political career over these last eight years.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Okay, he's gone up a little bit. Okay, gotcha, I'm
looking at that. You're absolutely right.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
So now we got Harris. Harris was the vice president,
and there's a lot of disparaging words that people have
used over the years for the job of the vice president,
starting back with John Adams. You know, even Adams you know,
said it was, you know, not the best job in
the world anyways. So as vice president, usually you're taking
(05:45):
like the heat for anything that's not working out in
the administration. You're usually the attack person on the you know,
with the media, and it hurts your popularity, and so
you saw that with Harris. Then when Harris enters into
the race becomes the nominee, it all changes literally overnight,
and you see it in those numbers. Now what happens
(06:07):
is it's a big shake up, and it's kind of
like people looked at her for the first time as hey,
could this person be president? And some people are like, yeah,
I like that, and you can see her favorability goes
way up. She was in the low maybe thirty seven,
thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Exactly on July nineteenth, which I think might have been
the weekend that Joe Biden basically said I'm out, her
favorability rating was thirty seven point one percent.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
So she springs up there, and it's very similar to
what happened when she announced her candidacy for president five
years ago. Her favorability springs up then as well, but
then over the course of that campaign, which was about
a couple of months, her favorabilities dropped and just never
(06:58):
took off. So now we're in this election cycle and
we've seen a very similar pattern occur, where yes, that
favorability is up, but now, as you mentioned, she's a
little bit underwater. The unfavorables are a little bit higher
than the favorables again right there with you know, within
a point. And so that's a problem because it's supposed
(07:21):
to be she's going to be a more favorable candidate
than Trump. And when we look at these numbers, and
again these are aggregate numbers, they're not the.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Emerson right right, right, right, Yeah. And also it looks
it looks like that, it looks to me like the
public would love to see two different candidates. Obviously that's
not going to change.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
No, they're more happy with these candidates than they were
eight years ago, even though Trump is the same candidate.
They're happier with you know, they have a more favorable
opinion of Trump today than they did eight years ago,
even four years ago. And that's a benefit right now
for Trump in his brand.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
So so how does you know, you say, okay, four
years ago, this was before the indictments on.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
This, I mean, you know, opinions change. You know, we
like some things. You know, times change, and if you
can stay in the public spotlight, what you know, this
is a very unique candidacy and that it's potentially you know,
it's been eight years, it could potentially be four more years,
which is not something that we regularly see. And so
(08:31):
he has grown accustom to a lot of American voters.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
And there's also the flip side, where you know, there's
a lot of polarization where they dislike Trump. But that
number has dropped a little bit from where it was,
particularly eight years ago, but even four years ago, during
the COVID response, that number was a little bit higher.
Now it's now that number is down as well. And
those are factors playing into this election.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Now, the national polls who would you vote for polls
the average of all these candidates, of these two candidates,
it's now a difference of a little less than two
percentage points. Harris forty eight point two, Trump forty six
point four. That means that there's still about five percent
(09:18):
of the people who either have voted for a third
party candidate or have not made up their mind. How
important is it for Trump to keep it this close?
I mean, he's losing in the popular vote, but the
theory is that he doesn't necessarily have to win the
popular vote in order to win the electoral college. Right.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
Based on Trump's game plans from the last two cycles,
when he lost by two and a half points nationally,
he was able to win those swing states by forty
five thousand votes and win the presidency. When he lost
by four and a half points nationally, then Biden was
able to win those swing states by forty five fifty
(09:58):
thousand votes go on to the presidency. And so, as
you mentioned, some of the polls have it right at
three three and a half. We have it a little
bit under two. But there's a little bit of a
difference between this election cycle and others, and that Harris
is really not campaigning in like forty states. She's not
(10:19):
really going to California, she's not really going to New York.
She's not camp because there isn't that normal election cycle
where there's a nominating phase, there's the primaries. None of
that happened, and so the voters don't know her as
well as they would have known a previous candidate from
any election cycle because that campaigning didn't occur. And so
(10:39):
her numbers are down in New York by like five points,
not ten points. Five points, so instead of being up
by twenty three, she's up by eighteen nineteen. California is
the same.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Thing that doesn't help Trump in the sense that a
loss is a loss. You lose New York by ten votes,
you lose the electoral college votes. He's probably written those
off anyway.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
He's yeah, But I'm talking about the national vote, and
that at three and a half percent, three percent, some
of that is inflated in that in previous elections, like Clinton,
she ran up her numbers in New York and California
and she was able to win by you know, millions
of votes. I don't see Harris doing it that way,
and so I do see her having a pathway even
(11:23):
at two and a half to three percent, But I
think it would be more difficult for her if Trump
is able to take the lead nationally, for her to
be able to win the electoral college.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So you think it's a tougher task for Harris to
lose the popular vote and somehow get lucky and win
with the electric call. Its an easier task for Trump
because of the big votes in some big states like Illinois,
New York, Massachusetts, and the biggest sop them all California,
(11:56):
and you can throw in Oregon, in Washington and a
few other states that are that are going to be
big Democratic victories no matter what. Sure, yeah, Maryland would
be category where you know, yeah, hey, if you'll stick
with me for one more segment, I'd love to just
pick your brain a little bit here. I know we're
(12:17):
not calling the winner here. And I'd also like to
invite callers if they'd like to ask a question, a
legitimate question. As I keep telling my listeners, listeners think
that polsters are not on the level. Polsters are the
most on the level people in America because they are
on the line. You can tell your friends you think
(12:38):
that Trump's gonna win, or you think Harris is gonna win.
No one's gonna know you were right or wrong except
your friends. If if either Spencer or day Palliologus or
John Zogby hit this precisely, that that makes their reputation.
They want to be precise, They want to be exact.
(13:00):
I mean, at least that's that's my fervent belief, and
I think Spencer will back me up on it. We'll
find out on the other side of the break if
you like to join the conversation. The state of the race,
how do you view it? Six one, seven, two, five,
four ten, thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty.
Let's have some fun.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World
Light Side Studios on w b Z News Radio.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson College pollster, one of
the big significant polling organizations in the country. Let me
run through a couple of states here with you, just
for the fun of it, and I guess I'm looking
at five thirty eight, which again is a composite judgment.
So they're saying right now, Nevada very close, one point
(13:50):
one percent for the Democrats, Pennsylvania point three percent, point
three of one percent, and it was a third of
one percent for Trump. Michigan Democrats by point oh four percent,
Wisconsin Democrat by by half of one percent, North Carolina
(14:12):
Trump by one point one, Georgia Trump by one point six,
Arizona Trump by one point nine. Those all sound pretty
right to you as of this moment in time.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
Uh yeah, yeah, I mean in the aggregate, those are
the numbers that we're saying.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Okay, is there is there a state out there? Give me,
give me two or three states that you think could
surprise everyone knows. Massachusetts will be won by Kamala Harris.
We can call that right now California and New York
trumpel Trump will win Florida, assumed trumpel win Texas. There's
any state out there that you're looking at and saying, hmm,
(14:53):
something's going on here this state. I'm looking at it,
and I'm thinking that it might actually be a surprise
on election nights.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Well, obviously, we have the seven swing states, as you mentioned,
you have your Florida and Texas. That is kind of
off the board. We see those as you know, a
plus five or greater for the Republicans. You got the
three additional states of Minnesota, Virginia, in New Hampshire, but
those states have generally been you know, five points plus
(15:27):
for the Democrats. Though Trump made New Hampshire really close
in twenty sixteen, it bounced back towards the Dems in
twenty twenty, and we haven't seen that that bounced back
yet for Trump in twenty four But then you got
like maybe a state like New Mexico we were looking at,
(15:48):
but that one still seems to be pretty strong being
a border state. You know, with Arizona. We saw how
Arizona is a little bit different on their issues, but
not in New Mexico. That one seems pretty solid for
the Dems. And so you know, you've got the first,
the third, the second district of Nebraska. You got the
(16:10):
second district up in Maine. But those two also seem
at least the second district in Maine seem more locked in.
If you watch the debates, it seems that that district
is strong for the Republicans. We'll see if the Dems
are able to hold that first, the second district of Nebraska.
But unfortunately, I don't have, you know, like a magic
(16:33):
state that I say, yeah, no problem.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
If you said, hey, here's one to watch, it's a
long shot. But it's again. I guess the thing that
I'm looking at here is I'm looking at Pennsylvania, and
I'm thinking to myself, if Pennsylvania is the state that
decides the election, and if Kamala Harris in retrospe do
(17:00):
you think she is thinking that maybe the governor of
Pennsylvania today might have been a better pick than the
governor of Minnesota, both in terms of how they each
would have played and which state is probably would have
gone democratic anyway, if you know what I'm saying, I.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Do, Dan, and I think you raised two interesting points here.
One is the logistics of a nineteen point electoral vote
state in Pennsylvania, that Governor Shapiro is very popular and
he wins that race. Now he runs against a weaker
Republican candidate and wins by fifteen points, but he still
(17:42):
wins by fifteen points. He's still very popular in the state,
and to your point, he may have been a pretty
strong asset on the ticket. But then I think the
other part is not just the logistics of the state
and the nineteen electoral votes, but that vice presidential debate
seemed to be a momentum stopper and shifter in this race.
(18:03):
And it wasn't a major change, but Harris had performed
well in that first presidential debate or in the only
presidential debate, and even though the polls were still floating
a little bit towards Trump, what we've seen in the
last two to three weeks since the vice presidential debate
was Trump picking up a little bit more ground than that,
(18:26):
suggesting that perhaps Shapiro's would have been a different type
of debater against Vance, and maybe would have presented it
a little bit differently than the way Walls came out
a little bit more folksy. Remember you know, we're talking
about an attorney general versus a governor. Well, Shapiro's a
(18:49):
governor now too, but at the time, so it's interesting
to think about those scenarios. But of course, you know,
at the start walls a lot of positive media, there
was a lot of energy there, and so it's hard
to say how that would have come out if Shapiro's
the nominee, does the progressive wing of the Democratic Party
(19:12):
crater at that moment and say we're out and that
would have been a problem for Harris as well. So
hard to tell how that would have played. But obviously
we'll find out in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
I would think, So how about this. We're ten thirty.
I got to take a newscast. I got some callers.
You want to talk to the callers? Sure, of course, Okay,
I know you'd be I never would take an assumption,
make an assumption. So El and Dave, I got you
coming up, and if you want to jump on board
(19:45):
and talk with Spencer Kimball sixty six seven, nine thirty.
The State of the Race the twenty twenty four presidential race.
Two weeks from right now, two weeks from right now,
conceivably I'm not saying we will, but it's conceivable that
if two weeks from right now, Pennsylvania has gone a
(20:07):
little more strongly than maybe and is called for Harris
or Trump, that could be the key that unlocks the
electoral College. So it's not inconceivable that the race could
be over. I don't think it will be at this
point in the evening because I think that there will
be too long to go and it may end up
with Nevada and Arizona being the case the states that decide.
(20:27):
But either way, we are now within two weeks. Uh
within we are within two weeks less, two and a
half hours of the polls in Massachusetts, up a down
the East Coast, clothing that's all where this it's two
weeks bo Just think of it like that, two weeks
is not a long time. Back on Night Side right
(20:48):
after this with Spencer Kimball, Polar Extraordinary from Emerson College.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Night Side with Dan Ray on Boston's News.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
My guest is Spencer Kimball. Spencer, I'm looking at some
recent polls here. Your most recent poll was October fourteenth
to the eighteenth. You had it Harris by one. So
have you been are you back in the field now
or when are you back in the field nationally? That
(21:22):
was a USA Today poll.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Yeah, So our national polls we go in right now
each week, and so we went back in the field tonight.
We'll have results back on Friday, and we'll track the
race this week and next week going into the election.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
You got some polls coming up tomorrow on state races.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
We do, we do. We've been taking a look, as
we previously mentioned, Florida and Texas. Those are two races
that folks have been talking about. So we took a
look down in Florida. Last time we were there. Rick Scott,
the Senator, had a small lead. It looks like he's
extended that lead now to about four or five points.
(22:06):
Trump likewise had a four or five point lead. Remember
that's a state he wins by about three points. We
have him up about seven or eight when you take
a look at where Remember DeSantis wins this state by
nineteen in the midterms, So Florida will be interesting to watch.
(22:26):
So those two are coming out, and then we've got
South Dakota. I don't know if we've got much There
a lot of ballot initiatives out there. Trump is doing
about what he did before. And then we'll get into
some battleground states. Oh, we got Maryland coming. That's the
Larry Hogan race versus alsl Brooks. Hogan was competitive there
(22:52):
last time. We polled in the eight point range, but
now it looks like it's jumped to double digits. Remember
that's a state Massachusetts very much.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
It's almost a mirror mirror reflection. I don't think there's
one member of the Congression of Delegation down there who's anything.
They're all Democrats, if I'm not mistaken. What about Texas,
that's a closer race than people would have expected.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Well, Texas was a state where Trump wins by I
think it was like eight or nine and twenty sixteen,
and then it drops down to about five and a
half in twenty twenty. We have it bouncing back up
for Trump. But the Senate race is very competitive with
Cruise and Colin Alrid. You know, it's a race where
people don't necessarily know the Democrat, but they're voting against Cruise,
(23:38):
and so that's a difficult place for the incumbent to
be in. That one's still very close and we'll be
exciting to watch. But the Senate overall is most likely
going to go towards the Republicans based on West Virginia.
And then later this week we'll have a Montana pole
with John Tester and Chiehi the Republican.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
You watch, you'll hot you got to watch Ohio too,
as I understand it.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
Oh yeah, Bernie Moreno, the Trump endorsed candidate. He came
out of kind of nowhere to get that nomination based
on Trump's endorsement. And now shared Brown was a very
popular Democrat. You know, we've had him up. But here's
how polling works. When you're the incumbent, you got to
get over at fifty percent, and so when you're sticking
(24:25):
at forty seven eight percent, and that's where Ted cruises
as well, that's that's a sign of concern because that
means voters are still looking around and potentially going to
vote for your opponent.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Well, let's get um, let's get a couple of callers
in here, going to go to L in Saugas. L
hope you have a good question for Spencer Kimball or
an observation.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
Go ahead, L all right, Just like there's a thing
called tax avoidance, and then this tax evasion, you have
election influencers, and then you cross the line into election interference.
And I believe the pollsters are guilty of election interference
because the undecideds are the biggest factor. They're the ones
who will move left and right. Like you just said,
(25:05):
you don't know where they're going to go, and you
guys push them to say, I want to pick the winner.
I'm going to Oh, the posters say this one's win,
so I want to say I picked the right one,
and there's nothing to a policy. It becomes like a
gambling horse race or people are an ego trip. So
the only people that should have this information of the
inner circle candidates so they can decide how much to
how much energy to exert our money in different places.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Otherwise, Okay, so you know what, I just want to
make sure I understay what you're saying. Now, what I
think you're saying is that the pollsters should take polls
for candidates but not release the results to the public.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
Yeah, maybe in the history after the fact, because all
you're doing is there's.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
A problem with that. You want to be right, Well,
here's the problem that good, it's Spencer's going to react to.
But here's the problem from my perspective. If Spencer Campbell
does a poll for candidate X, whether it's anal poll
or it's a poll in a state, and then he
tells candidate x's campaign here's what the numbers are. How
long do you think those numbers are going to stay quiet?
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Right? But the point of it is it shouldn't be
pushed to the undecided voters because you're influencing them.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Okay, Spencer, your witness, go ahead. Well, Al from sagas Al.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
I appreciate the call and the concern, and it's been
something that's happened in polling industry really since its inception.
There was congressional hearings back in the nineteen forties saying
that pollsters were actually suppressing the vote by just doing polls.
It turned out the data was in the other end
that turnout was actually higher. Not to say that the
(26:46):
polls increased turnout, but it's certainly the conclusion that they
decreased or suppressed turnout really didn't play out in those
data sets. However, when you look at these undecided voters,
you know, we put it out there that still four
or five percent and that the race is open. So
to me, it's not really locking somebody in saying, oh,
this one's gonna win. Jump on the bandwagon, because if
(27:09):
you had that, then Hillary Clinton really would have won
in twenty sixteen because ninety something percent of the polls
were skewed in her direction. So if you were a
nondecided voter, you'd say, well, if I want to jump
on the winner, Clinton's going to be the winner. Even
the expectation question was like sixty percent or hire of
voters dot Clinton was going to win that election. So
there's the bandwagon effect and people jumping on. But it
(27:32):
didn't happen, And so I think it and I hear
your point. Polling really is an opportunity to understand your audience.
It's audience analysis and persuasion. So when we hear candidates
talking about certain issues or topics, it's generally pole driven.
I can tell you what the most important issues are,
(27:52):
and then you can't hear the candidates talk about them.
And then we test out their different policies, you're like, oh,
that's really popular, Like you know, the no tax on tips,
that's a really you know, seventy something percent popularity across
all political ideologies. You can see why both Trump and
then Harris jumped on that policy because it was popular
(28:13):
in the polling kind of let the public see and
and why that policy would be, you know, something that
they would advocate for. And so there's a lot of
different uses of surveys and polls. Remember we're a twenty
billion dollar industry. So but this one area for pre
election polling is an area that we study. We look
(28:36):
at what to do with undecided voters. In fact, I've
done multiple studies that I just study these people and
I say, well, what's the best way to study them,
how to ask these questions and how to learn from
from the from these surveys, and so that's what that's
what we use them for. I can hear the concerns though,
Al We're not looking to influence public opinion. We're looking
(28:58):
to represent and be able to meror it back to
folks so they know, you know, because we all think, oh,
this is how I think about this, and then you
see the survey back and oh, I guess I'm in
the minority on that issue.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
I think the people that are trying to influence public
opinion are the spin misters from the different candidate. They'll
look at a poll and they'll say, oh, yeah, you
know we're down one percent, but or I know we're
up one percent, but it's even going to be bigger
than that. There's where I think the influence comes into play.
A good question. I hope you appreciated the answer. I'm
(29:31):
not sure it's going to give insu but it's an honest.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, it was very good. The undecided, though, please try
to explain them. How can you not decide by now?
I know people are voting now too. They just said
on the news, fourteen percent of matter choose that's already voted.
I guess so they just said.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Well, but maybe I've decided. Turned out to be the
people who choose not to vote.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Ah, very good, Dan.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Well, you know, if you if you're really undecided, and there
could be some people who decide, I want to go
vote in the Senate race because whatever reason, but I
can't make up my mind, and you know, they blank.
I don't know if they've done a study on how
many people blanked Hillary and Trump in twenty sixteen, how
many blanked Trump and Biden in twenty twenty. Is there
(30:18):
a study done on that.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
They usually blank down the ballot, so you're voting for
person and then you blank. Now, the issue in twenty
sixteen were the third party candidates, and it's still an
issue here in twenty twenty. We're not seeing it here
in Massachusetts because we're not a competitive state. But if
you're down in Georgia, there's a Jill Stein billboard up
in town, and we know Jill Stein from Massachusetts. She's
down there campaigning and the Democrats are very concerned that
(30:44):
she's going to pull votes from Harris. Now there's also
a libertarian, Chase Oliver. He's from Georgia and he's down there,
and the Republicans aren't concerned that he's going to pull
votes from So there's a lot of moving parts in
these elections. It's not as easy as just saying, you know,
they'll not vote, or they'll they'll vote on one issue
or another. But it is interesting to see how people
(31:06):
decide where to place those votes.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
One thing that you said, one one thing, Yeah, sure,
hold on, just one thing. I want to I just
want to add elephants, Okay, because I'll lose the thought.
One thing that you said, Spencer, which was interesting. I
did not realize that Trump's vote in Texas dropped off
on a percentage basis from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty.
That's the first time I've heard that. I'm sure it's true.
(31:30):
Did anyone someone must have done a study and said, okay,
to prove that the results of the election were with
what people most people accepted that Biden won the race.
Did anyone you know, point out in a public forum that, hey,
Trump's percentage of victory even in states that he won,
(31:50):
was less in twenty twenty than twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
That I don't know. But in twenty twenty, you got
to remember, there were more votes prior to election day
because of early voting, than all of the votes of
twenty sixteen. So we had this huge turnout. And as
we come into twenty twenty four, I'm going to bet
on a lower turnout than in twenty twenty. So I
don't think we're going to have one hundred and sixty
(32:14):
million votes one hundred and fifty five million votes. So
who are the people who aren't going to come out?
And as you mentioned, those might be the undecided voters
five percent, but it could be a more substantial number.
And that's where the pollsters we run into some problems
when we're trying to project turnout numbers and those numbers
don't hit the mark sometimes.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Okay, ell, if you can make it quick or I
can hold you over past.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
It real quick. When you've got to do trying to
figure out New Hampshire, you better pull Massachusetts because the
same day registration in Hampshire and they bust people up there.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
Well, I don't believe that, but you could say that.
I don't think they. I really don't. I've never seen
any evidence of that. Do they maybe bust people up
to staff polling places, but I think I've never seen
any You heard some stuff, but you heard this is
(33:11):
what the problem is. I mean, the problem is you
heard some stuff and you say it on my show.
I've never seen any proof of that whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (33:20):
Kind of like same day registration either, Well, that's fine,
just like I don't think college students should vote.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
I think college students should. We have to vote in
the communities where they live, not in schools that they
happen because they can influence, particularly in the state. But
that's reasonable. But the idea of their buses of people
coming up across the borders from Massachusetts, Massachusetts residents who
have done their duty to voted. The implication of what
you're saying is people vote at eight o'clock in the morning,
(33:47):
get on buses and go up and vote in New Hampshire.
That's just there's no proof of that. Gotta run, but
I gotta run. Thank you all. I have a great one.
Hissbray coming right back with Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
Okay, I'm gonna keep Spencer with me until eleven, and
those of you who are not gonna get on this hour,
you stay right there and I get you right on
the other side of the break. Let me go to
Dave and Danvers. Dave, you've been winning the longest Go
right ahead.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
Uh, it's talking to me Dan.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Are you Dave from Danvers?
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Day from Davers?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Is that you Dave from Danvers? We're wasting time.
Speaker 5 (34:33):
Dave, Oh, on the phone, hanging on?
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Okay, why don't you hang on a little longer? Okay,
put him on hold? Do you want to waste my time?
We're gonna move on to Donna in Berkeley. Donna next
on Nightsider, right ahead.
Speaker 5 (34:48):
I can I'm so sorry, and it's the beginning of
the program because I'm on my way.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
To work, but I have problem this to say hi
to Spencer Kimball. He's the Emerson College poster.
Speaker 5 (34:58):
Hi Spencer Spence. Then my question is when you're doing
these pollings and I hear these pollings every day, my
question is they didn't ask me. And so then Dan
had a good point was maybe these undecided may not
even vote. So how does one do these pollings when
(35:19):
I haven't been asked or my husband hasn't been asked?
Speaker 3 (35:22):
Go ahead, Yeah, well that's.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
A great question.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
So we've got, you know, roughly two hundred and fifty
four million adults in the country that we get to
reach out to, and you're not getting many surveys here
in Massachusetts because we don't have money competitive races, though.
We are doing a Massachusetts poll this week, and what
we do is we send out about thirty thousand text
messages to a random list of people from the state,
(35:50):
and if you get a text message from Emerson College Polling,
we ask you to take the survey. We'll also send
out some emails and we'll call you on your landline
if you have a landline. And so we use random
sampling sampling of people and from all of those text
messages and phone calls, we'll get about a thousand people
(36:13):
to complete the survey and then we'll do the study. Now,
your question about those undecided voters, and we had al
from the previous segment ask about them. You know, there's
different ways of handling. We've had researchers in the past
who suggest you just take them out of the survey
and you reweight the results based on no undecided voters.
(36:37):
Other folks think that you should push those undecided voters
and you ask them a follow up question saying if
you had to make a decision, which way would you lean.
And so those are two of the more popular ways
of dealing with the undecided voters, and we actually do
both because we're here to study and learn what is
the best methods available out there, and then after the
(37:00):
elections we go back and we say, oh, this worked
better than that, and then we can add to the
knowledge in the field of survey research.
Speaker 5 (37:09):
Very good. So my second question, if you don't mind
with all your polling and then you go back to
re examine it after the election, how correct were you
in your polling?
Speaker 3 (37:21):
We were pretty good. I mean our national poll in
twenty twenty is probably the best in the country. We
were at I think four point two, and I think
Biden wins by four point four. We got tripped up
in a few of the states where we weren't perfect,
and so those are areas that we look to improve upon.
(37:41):
Same thing. In the midterm elections, we were pretty solid.
Remember we're doing twenty four to twenty five different states,
upwards of fifty three fifty five races, and what we're
looking to do is have the survey just fall within
that margin of error. I know that the public wants
you to have the winner, and trust me, I would
love predictive accuracy, but that's not how surveys work. There
(38:04):
are a range of scores, and so if I tell
you that the race is going to be two points
and the other side wins by two the survey actually
does its job. It's a range. It's not going to
be as precise as we would like it to be.
But if I tell you that somebody is gonna win
by ten points and they lose, then that survey did
not do the job because it fell with outside that range.
(38:25):
And so as we take a look at some of
these races like Florida and Texas, those are falling now
outside the margin of error, suggesting that those are not
going to be all that competitive, though these swing states
still seem that they could go in either direction.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
All we got we got to stop it. The good questions, Donnie,
get them all in. Thank thank you much, thank you,
all right, right back at you. Spencer is always really
enjoyed it. Uh. I'm going to just go to open
lines on this issue on the other side of the eleven.
But thanks my friend, and we'd love to have you
back at least one more time as we get a
little closer to that two week mark of November fifth,
(39:02):
which is now just two weeks away. Thank you so much, Spencer.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
As always, Thanks Dan, I have a great night, all.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
Right, hang in there. He's the best, one of the best, folks.
I'm telling you. We only bring you the best here
on night side, and we will continue with your calls. Uh.
We got a couple of open lines six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty or six one seven, nine three one
ten thirty. Dial it up. Are you concerned that your person,
your man or woman in this race is dropping or
(39:29):
not going to make it, or are you dead solid,
perfect that you got a winner. We'll discuss right after
the eleven o'clock News
It's night with Dan Ray. I'm telling you easy Boston's Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
All Right, we are two weeks away, two weeks away
from the from the election of twenty twenty four. The
election has seemed to have been two years away, four
years away, or ten years away, and now it's on
our doorstep with us as Spencer Kimball a polster at
(00:30):
Emerson College, and again I talk at the troiker posters,
posters that I believe in, and Spencer is right there
with Dave Paleologus and John Zogby and what what what's
your What do you got at this point, Spencer that
there's so many numbers here that would make your head spin.
(00:52):
How do you I'm not going to ask you who's
going to win, because obviously if the election, election is
not being held today, But what what's the trend? What
do you see? What do your sense? What do you feel?
Everybody I'm sure has a rooting interest of some sort.
Your rooting interest is to be as accurate as possible.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Correct, You got it, Dan, and thanks again for having
me as always. Well, it's an exciting time two weeks
out from the election, particularly in this race that obviously
got shaken up over the summer, when President Biden drops
out and the vice president jumps in, we saw a
lot of movement in those numbers going in the democrats favor. Now,
(01:34):
it seems over the last four or five weeks they've
been floating back into the Republican's favor, at least at
the presidential level. Some of the congressional races have swung
in different ways, but at the presidential level, it seems
generally across these states they started to trend back towards
(01:55):
Trump after him losing ground when Harris initially jumped in.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Well, I'm looking at five point thirty eight, which is
kind of a composite side of the different polls, and
I look at this the favorable unfavorable. This is the
combined polls favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. So
(02:21):
on January first this year, his unfavorable is fifty two
point five percent. His favorable was four point two six percent,
just about a nine point nine percent spread. The latest
composite basically has his unfavorable a nine point two percent
(02:43):
spread in the wrong direction. So his unfavorable really hasn't
moved much if we use January first, you know, as
a as a starting point. I'm just picking a number
that you know, he was ten point five unfavorable. Excuse me,
a ten point five difference he was his unfavorable was
(03:04):
fifty two point seven. His favorable was forty two point two.
So again that's a ten point five difference. Now, as
of I guess the nineteenth of October, which would have
been Saturday, his unfavorables nine point two. Not much of
a swing there. And yet if you look at Kamala Harris,
(03:32):
the same sort of set of circumstances, where can I
find her?
Speaker 4 (03:37):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (03:38):
I got her here. All of a sudden, she has
had a precipitous drop. Her unfavorable was as high as
sixteen point eight percent in late June, their unfavorable rating
(04:00):
and her favorle rating was only thirty six. Now you
get all the way to today her her unfavorable rating
is forty seven point two and her favorable is forty
six point five, almost the same. So that on that
it would look as if Harris should win because her
(04:22):
favorable unfavorable is pretty closest, so kind of a forty
seven to forty seven split, where Trump still has a
ninety's nine points to the negative.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Well, there's a lot of unpacked there, Dan.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah, absolutely, So go ahead.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
We got to remember eight years ago, when Donald Trump's running,
his favorability is at forty percent. So over the course
of the last eight years, essentially his favorability number has
gone up one point every year. And it's almost says
if America has grown more accustomed to Trump and his
number has gone up. So that's a bit of an
(05:01):
issue for the Democrats this cycle, as compared to twenty sixteen,
when you have that messaging where it's more negative on Trump.
Here he's got a more favorable rating than what we've
seen anytime in his political career over these last eight years.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Okay, he's gone up a little bit. Okay, gotcha, I'm
looking at that. You're absolutely right.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
So now we got Harris. Harris was the vice president,
and there's a lot of disparaging words that people have
used over the years for the job of the vice president,
starting back with John Adams. You know, even Adams you know,
said it was, you know, not the best job in
the world anyways. So as vice president, usually you're taking
(05:45):
like the heat for anything that's not working out in
the administration. You're usually the attack person on the you know,
with the media, and it hurts your popularity, and so
you saw that with Harris. Then when Harris enters into
the race becomes the nominee, it all changes literally overnight,
and you see it in those numbers. Now what happens
(06:07):
is it's a big shake up, and it's kind of
like people looked at her for the first time as hey,
could this person be president? And some people are like, yeah,
I like that, and you can see her favorability goes
way up. She was in the low maybe thirty seven,
thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Exactly on July nineteenth, which I think might have been
the weekend that Joe Biden basically said I'm out, her
favorability rating was thirty seven point one percent.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
So she springs up there, and it's very similar to
what happened when she announced her candidacy for president five
years ago. Her favorability springs up then as well, but
then over the course of that campaign, which was about
a couple of months, her favorabilities dropped and just never
(06:58):
took off. So now we're in this election cycle and
we've seen a very similar pattern occur, where yes, that
favorability is up, but now, as you mentioned, she's a
little bit underwater. The unfavorables are a little bit higher
than the favorables again right there with you know, within
a point. And so that's a problem because it's supposed
(07:21):
to be she's going to be a more favorable candidate
than Trump. And when we look at these numbers, and
again these are aggregate numbers, they're not the.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Emerson right right, right, right, Yeah. And also it looks
it looks like that, it looks to me like the
public would love to see two different candidates. Obviously that's
not going to change.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
No, they're more happy with these candidates than they were
eight years ago, even though Trump is the same candidate.
They're happier with you know, they have a more favorable
opinion of Trump today than they did eight years ago,
even four years ago. And that's a benefit right now
for Trump in his brand.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
So so how does you know, you say, okay, four
years ago, this was before the indictments on.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
This, I mean, you know, opinions change. You know, we
like some things. You know, times change, and if you
can stay in the public spotlight, what you know, this
is a very unique candidacy and that it's potentially you know,
it's been eight years, it could potentially be four more years,
which is not something that we regularly see. And so
(08:31):
he has grown accustom to a lot of American voters.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
And there's also the flip side, where you know, there's
a lot of polarization where they dislike Trump. But that
number has dropped a little bit from where it was,
particularly eight years ago, but even four years ago, during
the COVID response, that number was a little bit higher.
Now it's now that number is down as well. And
those are factors playing into this election.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Now, the national polls who would you vote for polls
the average of all these candidates, of these two candidates,
it's now a difference of a little less than two
percentage points. Harris forty eight point two, Trump forty six
point four. That means that there's still about five percent
(09:18):
of the people who either have voted for a third
party candidate or have not made up their mind. How
important is it for Trump to keep it this close?
I mean, he's losing in the popular vote, but the
theory is that he doesn't necessarily have to win the
popular vote in order to win the electoral college. Right.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
Based on Trump's game plans from the last two cycles,
when he lost by two and a half points nationally,
he was able to win those swing states by forty
five thousand votes and win the presidency. When he lost
by four and a half points nationally, then Biden was
able to win those swing states by forty five fifty
(09:58):
thousand votes go on to the presidency. And so, as
you mentioned, some of the polls have it right at
three three and a half. We have it a little
bit under two. But there's a little bit of a
difference between this election cycle and others, and that Harris
is really not campaigning in like forty states. She's not
(10:19):
really going to California, she's not really going to New York.
She's not camp because there isn't that normal election cycle
where there's a nominating phase, there's the primaries. None of
that happened, and so the voters don't know her as
well as they would have known a previous candidate from
any election cycle because that campaigning didn't occur. And so
(10:39):
her numbers are down in New York by like five points,
not ten points. Five points, so instead of being up
by twenty three, she's up by eighteen nineteen. California is
the same.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Thing that doesn't help Trump in the sense that a
loss is a loss. You lose New York by ten votes,
you lose the electoral college votes. He's probably written those
off anyway.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
He's yeah, But I'm talking about the national vote, and
that at three and a half percent, three percent, some
of that is inflated in that in previous elections, like Clinton,
she ran up her numbers in New York and California
and she was able to win by you know, millions
of votes. I don't see Harris doing it that way,
and so I do see her having a pathway even
(11:23):
at two and a half to three percent, But I
think it would be more difficult for her if Trump
is able to take the lead nationally, for her to
be able to win the electoral college.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So you think it's a tougher task for Harris to
lose the popular vote and somehow get lucky and win
with the electric call. Its an easier task for Trump
because of the big votes in some big states like Illinois,
New York, Massachusetts, and the biggest sop them all California,
(11:56):
and you can throw in Oregon, in Washington and a
few other states that are that are going to be
big Democratic victories no matter what. Sure, yeah, Maryland would
be category where you know, yeah, hey, if you'll stick
with me for one more segment, I'd love to just
pick your brain a little bit here. I know we're
(12:17):
not calling the winner here. And I'd also like to
invite callers if they'd like to ask a question, a
legitimate question. As I keep telling my listeners, listeners think
that polsters are not on the level. Polsters are the
most on the level people in America because they are
on the line. You can tell your friends you think
(12:38):
that Trump's gonna win, or you think Harris is gonna win.
No one's gonna know you were right or wrong except
your friends. If if either Spencer or day Palliologus or
John Zogby hit this precisely, that that makes their reputation.
They want to be precise, They want to be exact.
(13:00):
I mean, at least that's that's my fervent belief, and
I think Spencer will back me up on it. We'll
find out on the other side of the break if
you like to join the conversation. The state of the race,
how do you view it? Six one, seven, two, five,
four ten, thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty.
Let's have some fun.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World
Light Side Studios on w b Z News Radio.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson College pollster, one of
the big significant polling organizations in the country. Let me
run through a couple of states here with you, just
for the fun of it, and I guess I'm looking
at five thirty eight, which again is a composite judgment.
So they're saying right now, Nevada very close, one point
(13:50):
one percent for the Democrats, Pennsylvania point three percent, point
three of one percent, and it was a third of
one percent for Trump. Michigan Democrats by point oh four percent,
Wisconsin Democrat by by half of one percent, North Carolina
(14:12):
Trump by one point one, Georgia Trump by one point six,
Arizona Trump by one point nine. Those all sound pretty
right to you as of this moment in time.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
Uh yeah, yeah, I mean in the aggregate, those are
the numbers that we're saying.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Okay, is there is there a state out there? Give me,
give me two or three states that you think could
surprise everyone knows. Massachusetts will be won by Kamala Harris.
We can call that right now California and New York
trumpel Trump will win Florida, assumed trumpel win Texas. There's
any state out there that you're looking at and saying, hmm,
(14:53):
something's going on here this state. I'm looking at it,
and I'm thinking that it might actually be a surprise
on election nights.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Well, obviously, we have the seven swing states, as you mentioned,
you have your Florida and Texas. That is kind of
off the board. We see those as you know, a
plus five or greater for the Republicans. You got the
three additional states of Minnesota, Virginia, in New Hampshire, but
those states have generally been you know, five points plus
(15:27):
for the Democrats. Though Trump made New Hampshire really close
in twenty sixteen, it bounced back towards the Dems in
twenty twenty, and we haven't seen that that bounced back
yet for Trump in twenty four But then you got
like maybe a state like New Mexico we were looking at,
(15:48):
but that one still seems to be pretty strong being
a border state. You know, with Arizona. We saw how
Arizona is a little bit different on their issues, but
not in New Mexico. That one seems pretty solid for
the Dems. And so you know, you've got the first,
the third, the second district of Nebraska. You got the
(16:10):
second district up in Maine. But those two also seem
at least the second district in Maine seem more locked in.
If you watch the debates, it seems that that district
is strong for the Republicans. We'll see if the Dems
are able to hold that first, the second district of Nebraska.
But unfortunately, I don't have, you know, like a magic
(16:33):
state that I say, yeah, no problem.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
If you said, hey, here's one to watch, it's a
long shot. But it's again. I guess the thing that
I'm looking at here is I'm looking at Pennsylvania, and
I'm thinking to myself, if Pennsylvania is the state that
decides the election, and if Kamala Harris in retrospe do
(17:00):
you think she is thinking that maybe the governor of
Pennsylvania today might have been a better pick than the
governor of Minnesota, both in terms of how they each
would have played and which state is probably would have
gone democratic anyway, if you know what I'm saying, I.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Do, Dan, and I think you raised two interesting points here.
One is the logistics of a nineteen point electoral vote
state in Pennsylvania, that Governor Shapiro is very popular and
he wins that race. Now he runs against a weaker
Republican candidate and wins by fifteen points, but he still
(17:42):
wins by fifteen points. He's still very popular in the state,
and to your point, he may have been a pretty
strong asset on the ticket. But then I think the
other part is not just the logistics of the state
and the nineteen electoral votes, but that vice presidential debate
seemed to be a momentum stopper and shifter in this race.
(18:03):
And it wasn't a major change, but Harris had performed
well in that first presidential debate or in the only
presidential debate, and even though the polls were still floating
a little bit towards Trump, what we've seen in the
last two to three weeks since the vice presidential debate
was Trump picking up a little bit more ground than that,
(18:26):
suggesting that perhaps Shapiro's would have been a different type
of debater against Vance, and maybe would have presented it
a little bit differently than the way Walls came out
a little bit more folksy. Remember you know, we're talking
about an attorney general versus a governor. Well, Shapiro's a
(18:49):
governor now too, but at the time, so it's interesting
to think about those scenarios. But of course, you know,
at the start walls a lot of positive media, there
was a lot of energy there, and so it's hard
to say how that would have come out if Shapiro's
the nominee, does the progressive wing of the Democratic Party
(19:12):
crater at that moment and say we're out and that
would have been a problem for Harris as well. So
hard to tell how that would have played. But obviously
we'll find out in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
I would think, So how about this. We're ten thirty.
I got to take a newscast. I got some callers.
You want to talk to the callers? Sure, of course, Okay,
I know you'd be I never would take an assumption,
make an assumption. So El and Dave, I got you
coming up, and if you want to jump on board
(19:45):
and talk with Spencer Kimball sixty six seven, nine thirty.
The State of the Race the twenty twenty four presidential race.
Two weeks from right now, two weeks from right now,
conceivably I'm not saying we will, but it's conceivable that
if two weeks from right now, Pennsylvania has gone a
(20:07):
little more strongly than maybe and is called for Harris
or Trump, that could be the key that unlocks the
electoral College. So it's not inconceivable that the race could
be over. I don't think it will be at this
point in the evening because I think that there will
be too long to go and it may end up
with Nevada and Arizona being the case the states that decide.
(20:27):
But either way, we are now within two weeks. Uh
within we are within two weeks less, two and a
half hours of the polls in Massachusetts, up a down
the East Coast, clothing that's all where this it's two
weeks bo Just think of it like that, two weeks
is not a long time. Back on Night Side right
(20:48):
after this with Spencer Kimball, Polar Extraordinary from Emerson College.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Night Side with Dan Ray on Boston's News.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
My guest is Spencer Kimball. Spencer, I'm looking at some
recent polls here. Your most recent poll was October fourteenth
to the eighteenth. You had it Harris by one. So
have you been are you back in the field now
or when are you back in the field nationally? That
(21:22):
was a USA Today poll.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Yeah, So our national polls we go in right now
each week, and so we went back in the field tonight.
We'll have results back on Friday, and we'll track the
race this week and next week going into the election.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
You got some polls coming up tomorrow on state races.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
We do, we do. We've been taking a look, as
we previously mentioned, Florida and Texas. Those are two races
that folks have been talking about. So we took a
look down in Florida. Last time we were there. Rick Scott,
the Senator, had a small lead. It looks like he's
extended that lead now to about four or five points.
(22:06):
Trump likewise had a four or five point lead. Remember
that's a state he wins by about three points. We
have him up about seven or eight when you take
a look at where Remember DeSantis wins this state by
nineteen in the midterms, So Florida will be interesting to watch.
(22:26):
So those two are coming out, and then we've got
South Dakota. I don't know if we've got much There
a lot of ballot initiatives out there. Trump is doing
about what he did before. And then we'll get into
some battleground states. Oh, we got Maryland coming. That's the
Larry Hogan race versus alsl Brooks. Hogan was competitive there
(22:52):
last time. We polled in the eight point range, but
now it looks like it's jumped to double digits. Remember
that's a state Massachusetts very much.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
It's almost a mirror mirror reflection. I don't think there's
one member of the Congression of Delegation down there who's anything.
They're all Democrats, if I'm not mistaken. What about Texas,
that's a closer race than people would have expected.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Well, Texas was a state where Trump wins by I
think it was like eight or nine and twenty sixteen,
and then it drops down to about five and a
half in twenty twenty. We have it bouncing back up
for Trump. But the Senate race is very competitive with
Cruise and Colin Alrid. You know, it's a race where
people don't necessarily know the Democrat, but they're voting against Cruise,
(23:38):
and so that's a difficult place for the incumbent to
be in. That one's still very close and we'll be
exciting to watch. But the Senate overall is most likely
going to go towards the Republicans based on West Virginia.
And then later this week we'll have a Montana pole
with John Tester and Chiehi the Republican.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
You watch, you'll hot you got to watch Ohio too,
as I understand it.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
Oh yeah, Bernie Moreno, the Trump endorsed candidate. He came
out of kind of nowhere to get that nomination based
on Trump's endorsement. And now shared Brown was a very
popular Democrat. You know, we've had him up. But here's
how polling works. When you're the incumbent, you got to
get over at fifty percent, and so when you're sticking
(24:25):
at forty seven eight percent, and that's where Ted cruises
as well, that's that's a sign of concern because that
means voters are still looking around and potentially going to
vote for your opponent.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Well, let's get um, let's get a couple of callers
in here, going to go to L in Saugas. L
hope you have a good question for Spencer Kimball or
an observation.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
Go ahead, L all right, Just like there's a thing
called tax avoidance, and then this tax evasion, you have
election influencers, and then you cross the line into election interference.
And I believe the pollsters are guilty of election interference
because the undecideds are the biggest factor. They're the ones
who will move left and right. Like you just said,
(25:05):
you don't know where they're going to go, and you
guys push them to say, I want to pick the winner.
I'm going to Oh, the posters say this one's win,
so I want to say I picked the right one,
and there's nothing to a policy. It becomes like a
gambling horse race or people are an ego trip. So
the only people that should have this information of the
inner circle candidates so they can decide how much to
how much energy to exert our money in different places.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
Otherwise, Okay, so you know what, I just want to
make sure I understay what you're saying. Now, what I
think you're saying is that the pollsters should take polls
for candidates but not release the results to the public.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
Yeah, maybe in the history after the fact, because all
you're doing is there's.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
A problem with that. You want to be right, Well,
here's the problem that good, it's Spencer's going to react to.
But here's the problem from my perspective. If Spencer Campbell
does a poll for candidate X, whether it's anal poll
or it's a poll in a state, and then he
tells candidate x's campaign here's what the numbers are. How
long do you think those numbers are going to stay quiet?
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Right? But the point of it is it shouldn't be
pushed to the undecided voters because you're influencing them.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Okay, Spencer, your witness, go ahead. Well, Al from sagas Al.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
I appreciate the call and the concern, and it's been
something that's happened in polling industry really since its inception.
There was congressional hearings back in the nineteen forties saying
that pollsters were actually suppressing the vote by just doing polls.
It turned out the data was in the other end
that turnout was actually higher. Not to say that the
(26:46):
polls increased turnout, but it's certainly the conclusion that they
decreased or suppressed turnout really didn't play out in those
data sets. However, when you look at these undecided voters,
you know, we put it out there that still four
or five percent and that the race is open. So
to me, it's not really locking somebody in saying, oh,
this one's gonna win. Jump on the bandwagon, because if
(27:09):
you had that, then Hillary Clinton really would have won
in twenty sixteen because ninety something percent of the polls
were skewed in her direction. So if you were a
nondecided voter, you'd say, well, if I want to jump
on the winner, Clinton's going to be the winner. Even
the expectation question was like sixty percent or hire of
voters dot Clinton was going to win that election. So
there's the bandwagon effect and people jumping on. But it
(27:32):
didn't happen, And so I think it and I hear
your point. Polling really is an opportunity to understand your audience.
It's audience analysis and persuasion. So when we hear candidates
talking about certain issues or topics, it's generally pole driven.
I can tell you what the most important issues are,
(27:52):
and then you can't hear the candidates talk about them.
And then we test out their different policies, you're like, oh,
that's really popular, Like you know, the no tax on tips,
that's a really you know, seventy something percent popularity across
all political ideologies. You can see why both Trump and
then Harris jumped on that policy because it was popular
(28:13):
in the polling kind of let the public see and
and why that policy would be, you know, something that
they would advocate for. And so there's a lot of
different uses of surveys and polls. Remember we're a twenty
billion dollar industry. So but this one area for pre
election polling is an area that we study. We look
(28:36):
at what to do with undecided voters. In fact, I've
done multiple studies that I just study these people and
I say, well, what's the best way to study them,
how to ask these questions and how to learn from
from the from these surveys, and so that's what that's
what we use them for. I can hear the concerns though,
Al We're not looking to influence public opinion. We're looking
(28:58):
to represent and be able to meror it back to
folks so they know, you know, because we all think, oh,
this is how I think about this, and then you
see the survey back and oh, I guess I'm in
the minority on that issue.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
I think the people that are trying to influence public
opinion are the spin misters from the different candidate. They'll
look at a poll and they'll say, oh, yeah, you
know we're down one percent, but or I know we're
up one percent, but it's even going to be bigger
than that. There's where I think the influence comes into play.
A good question. I hope you appreciated the answer. I'm
(29:31):
not sure it's going to give insu but it's an honest.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, it was very good. The undecided, though, please try
to explain them. How can you not decide by now?
I know people are voting now too. They just said
on the news, fourteen percent of matter choose that's already voted.
I guess so they just said.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Well, but maybe I've decided. Turned out to be the
people who choose not to vote.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Ah, very good, Dan.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Well, you know, if you if you're really undecided, and there
could be some people who decide, I want to go
vote in the Senate race because whatever reason, but I
can't make up my mind, and you know, they blank.
I don't know if they've done a study on how
many people blanked Hillary and Trump in twenty sixteen, how
many blanked Trump and Biden in twenty twenty. Is there
(30:18):
a study done on that.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
They usually blank down the ballot, so you're voting for
person and then you blank. Now, the issue in twenty
sixteen were the third party candidates, and it's still an
issue here in twenty twenty. We're not seeing it here
in Massachusetts because we're not a competitive state. But if
you're down in Georgia, there's a Jill Stein billboard up
in town, and we know Jill Stein from Massachusetts. She's
down there campaigning and the Democrats are very concerned that
(30:44):
she's going to pull votes from Harris. Now there's also
a libertarian, Chase Oliver. He's from Georgia and he's down there,
and the Republicans aren't concerned that he's going to pull
votes from So there's a lot of moving parts in
these elections. It's not as easy as just saying, you know,
they'll not vote, or they'll they'll vote on one issue
or another. But it is interesting to see how people
(31:06):
decide where to place those votes.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
One thing that you said, one one thing, Yeah, sure,
hold on, just one thing. I want to I just
want to add elephants, Okay, because I'll lose the thought.
One thing that you said, Spencer, which was interesting. I
did not realize that Trump's vote in Texas dropped off
on a percentage basis from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty.
That's the first time I've heard that. I'm sure it's true.
(31:30):
Did anyone someone must have done a study and said, okay,
to prove that the results of the election were with
what people most people accepted that Biden won the race.
Did anyone you know, point out in a public forum that, hey,
Trump's percentage of victory even in states that he won,
(31:50):
was less in twenty twenty than twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
That I don't know. But in twenty twenty, you got
to remember, there were more votes prior to election day
because of early voting, than all of the votes of
twenty sixteen. So we had this huge turnout. And as
we come into twenty twenty four, I'm going to bet
on a lower turnout than in twenty twenty. So I
don't think we're going to have one hundred and sixty
(32:14):
million votes one hundred and fifty five million votes. So
who are the people who aren't going to come out?
And as you mentioned, those might be the undecided voters
five percent, but it could be a more substantial number.
And that's where the pollsters we run into some problems
when we're trying to project turnout numbers and those numbers
don't hit the mark sometimes.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Okay, ell, if you can make it quick or I
can hold you over past.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
It real quick. When you've got to do trying to
figure out New Hampshire, you better pull Massachusetts because the
same day registration in Hampshire and they bust people up there.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
Well, I don't believe that, but you could say that.
I don't think they. I really don't. I've never seen
any evidence of that. Do they maybe bust people up
to staff polling places, but I think I've never seen
any You heard some stuff, but you heard this is
(33:11):
what the problem is. I mean, the problem is you
heard some stuff and you say it on my show.
I've never seen any proof of that whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (33:20):
Kind of like same day registration either, Well, that's fine,
just like I don't think college students should vote.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
I think college students should. We have to vote in
the communities where they live, not in schools that they
happen because they can influence, particularly in the state. But
that's reasonable. But the idea of their buses of people
coming up across the borders from Massachusetts, Massachusetts residents who
have done their duty to voted. The implication of what
you're saying is people vote at eight o'clock in the morning,
(33:47):
get on buses and go up and vote in New Hampshire.
That's just there's no proof of that. Gotta run, but
I gotta run. Thank you all. I have a great one.
Hissbray coming right back with Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
Okay, I'm gonna keep Spencer with me until eleven, and
those of you who are not gonna get on this hour,
you stay right there and I get you right on
the other side of the break. Let me go to
Dave and Danvers. Dave, you've been winning the longest Go
right ahead.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
Uh, it's talking to me Dan.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Are you Dave from Danvers?
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Day from Davers?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Is that you Dave from Danvers? We're wasting time.
Speaker 5 (34:33):
Dave, Oh, on the phone, hanging on?
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Okay, why don't you hang on a little longer? Okay,
put him on hold? Do you want to waste my time?
We're gonna move on to Donna in Berkeley. Donna next
on Nightsider, right ahead.
Speaker 5 (34:48):
I can I'm so sorry, and it's the beginning of
the program because I'm on my way.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
To work, but I have problem this to say hi
to Spencer Kimball. He's the Emerson College poster.
Speaker 5 (34:58):
Hi Spencer Spence. Then my question is when you're doing
these pollings and I hear these pollings every day, my
question is they didn't ask me. And so then Dan
had a good point was maybe these undecided may not
even vote. So how does one do these pollings when
(35:19):
I haven't been asked or my husband hasn't been asked?
Speaker 3 (35:22):
Go ahead, Yeah, well that's.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
A great question.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
So we've got, you know, roughly two hundred and fifty
four million adults in the country that we get to
reach out to, and you're not getting many surveys here
in Massachusetts because we don't have money competitive races, though.
We are doing a Massachusetts poll this week, and what
we do is we send out about thirty thousand text
messages to a random list of people from the state,
(35:50):
and if you get a text message from Emerson College Polling,
we ask you to take the survey. We'll also send
out some emails and we'll call you on your landline
if you have a landline. And so we use random
sampling sampling of people and from all of those text
messages and phone calls, we'll get about a thousand people
(36:13):
to complete the survey and then we'll do the study. Now,
your question about those undecided voters, and we had al
from the previous segment ask about them. You know, there's
different ways of handling. We've had researchers in the past
who suggest you just take them out of the survey
and you reweight the results based on no undecided voters.
(36:37):
Other folks think that you should push those undecided voters
and you ask them a follow up question saying if
you had to make a decision, which way would you lean.
And so those are two of the more popular ways
of dealing with the undecided voters, and we actually do
both because we're here to study and learn what is
the best methods available out there, and then after the
(37:00):
elections we go back and we say, oh, this worked
better than that, and then we can add to the
knowledge in the field of survey research.
Speaker 5 (37:09):
Very good. So my second question, if you don't mind
with all your polling and then you go back to
re examine it after the election, how correct were you
in your polling?
Speaker 3 (37:21):
We were pretty good. I mean our national poll in
twenty twenty is probably the best in the country. We
were at I think four point two, and I think
Biden wins by four point four. We got tripped up
in a few of the states where we weren't perfect,
and so those are areas that we look to improve upon.
(37:41):
Same thing. In the midterm elections, we were pretty solid.
Remember we're doing twenty four to twenty five different states,
upwards of fifty three fifty five races, and what we're
looking to do is have the survey just fall within
that margin of error. I know that the public wants
you to have the winner, and trust me, I would
love predictive accuracy, but that's not how surveys work. There
(38:04):
are a range of scores, and so if I tell
you that the race is going to be two points
and the other side wins by two the survey actually
does its job. It's a range. It's not going to
be as precise as we would like it to be.
But if I tell you that somebody is gonna win
by ten points and they lose, then that survey did
not do the job because it fell with outside that range.
(38:25):
And so as we take a look at some of
these races like Florida and Texas, those are falling now
outside the margin of error, suggesting that those are not
going to be all that competitive, though these swing states
still seem that they could go in either direction.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
All we got we got to stop it. The good questions, Donnie,
get them all in. Thank thank you much, thank you,
all right, right back at you. Spencer is always really
enjoyed it. Uh. I'm going to just go to open
lines on this issue on the other side of the eleven.
But thanks my friend, and we'd love to have you
back at least one more time as we get a
little closer to that two week mark of November fifth,
(39:02):
which is now just two weeks away. Thank you so much, Spencer.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
As always, Thanks Dan, I have a great night, all.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
Right, hang in there. He's the best, one of the best, folks.
I'm telling you. We only bring you the best here
on night side, and we will continue with your calls. Uh.
We got a couple of open lines six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty or six one seven, nine three one
ten thirty. Dial it up. Are you concerned that your person,
your man or woman in this race is dropping or
(39:29):
not going to make it, or are you dead solid,
perfect that you got a winner. We'll discuss right after
the eleven o'clock News
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