September 2, 2024 • 40 mins
Gary Tanguay filled in on NightSide:
It’s almost time to vote for a new president, so what better time to take a look at our past ones?! What makes for a great leader and which presidents were exactly that? Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University, talked with Gary about some of our outstanding presidents.
It’s almost time to vote for a new president, so what better time to take a look at our past ones?! What makes for a great leader and which presidents were exactly that? Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University, talked with Gary about some of our outstanding presidents.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's new radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Dan Ray, the big Kahuna run here. He has the
holidays off. You know, all the big names, Dude, Gary
Tangle here and it's always great to fill in for Dad.
We'll be hanging out with you all week long. Still
the come of the show. Chris pappas the pride of
Algonquin High School. He's a big shot of Hollywood man.
He's a producer and a writer on Gemstones. And we
continue our series of talking to Boston people who have
(00:29):
gone to LA and done well. It's amazing. It's amazing
how many people from Massachusetts and New England, Boston that are
in show business in LA. It's kind of crazy. And
I've been on movie set since before and playing various
roles and somebody will say, oh, you know, they're based
in Santa Monica and they'll be the first ad or
(00:49):
one of the camera guys and they're all from Boston
and they all went West. I mean Ray Donovan, which
was one of my favorite shows. It's true, folks, a
lot of Bostonians out there and Chris is one of
them and he's done really well. Ran a bunch of movies,
produce a bunch of movies and some stuff. But I'm
Sandler and working on the Gemstones with Danny McBride, And
what I'd like to do is talk to people who
(01:10):
have done well in show business who are local, Like
talk to my guys Donning Wahlberg the other day, try
to get him on this week and talk about their
career path. Michael Maddley joined us from Nashville, New Hampshire.
We all know the MIC has done really well in
this area, so that's what we're going to be talking
about here coming up at ten o'clock. And Alan Lickman
(01:31):
joins us right now, the professor of history from American University. Alan,
I'm so happy you're with us. Thank you for coming on.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
This my great pleasure. Uh.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
There's a couple of things I want to talk to
you about. And I do want to get into the
presidential predictions because you're certainly known for that coming up.
But I was I was thinking, you know, about the
whole presidential thing, and you know, people talk about Kamala Harris,
and I don't really need to get into whether you
vote for Trump or Harris or you know, that's your
(02:04):
business whatever. But like like everybody thinks, like Harris, she's
got a terrible track record in the eyes of her,
in the eyes of some okay, but like she could
still go on to become a great president. And like,
how many times has somebody gone on to be a
great president Alan that we thought was gonna stink? It
happens more than we think, doesn't.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
It happens all the time.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
One of the most lightly regarded candidates was Ronald Reagan.
People said, oh my god, he's way too radical, way
too extreme to be even elected president, much less to
be a good president. And of course Ronald Reagan today
is regarded as the iconic Republican president. Harry Truman was
(02:54):
very lightly regarded in his own time. In fact, every
single election poll bar Nunn said he would not win
election on his own in nineteen forty eight, he went
on to win, not by a hair but by about
five points. He brought in a Democratic Congress, and today
(03:15):
is regarded not as a great president, but one of
the near great presidents.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, my dad always talked about Harry Truman because he's
my dad. Fought in World War Two. Well, he didn't
fight in World War two, I need to be careful.
He was, he was he was state side due to
a medical issue. But he worked in a hospital state side,
and he had he had there's a he was a liability,
so they wouldn't send him overseas. But he talked about Truman.
Give him hell, Harry and the whole thing. You know,
do we beat Truman? Remember was that the Chicago Trump
(03:42):
New York Times, Chicago, I can't remember which paper.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
It was, Congo Daily.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Chicago News. You know, do we beat Truman?
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
And everybody and by the way, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
They pulled forty leading pundits in nineteen forty eight, and
you know how many thought Truman would win.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Zero, right, right right, And so he wins, and then
of course the bomb on Horosima and he goes down
in history. Is one of the toughest presidents or you know,
it also seems to me or the president. It's what
that particular person had to deal with at the time,
you know, because great challenges and great moments, for example,
like Eisenhower. Is Eisenhower considered a great.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
President, Well, no, but he's considered a near great president.
You know. Theodore Roosevelt was also not considered a great,
but a near great president, complained, imagine this, I didn't
have a great war or great national security threat to.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Right, right, isn't even right? Yes, I mean he didn't
have that big issue. That's the thing with Ike. I
mean everybody remembers Ike from d Day, of course, But
like the fifties, everything was great. People came home from
the war. The economy was going great. Like my parents,
they were able to buy a house, people had a
ca more factories were booming, America's economy was growing great.
(05:03):
There really wasn't anything for Ike to do, was there.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Well? You know, Ike, because he was a social right
really understood the horrors of war. And I think, you know,
the best thing that came out of the Eisenhower years
was he avoided foolish wars, including avoiding the pressure to
intervene militarily on the side of the French, the French
colonialists in Vietnam. He diffused the conflict between Egypt on
(05:33):
the one hand, and Israel, France and Britain on the
other hand without getting America involved. And he was a
moderate president, you know, who kind of bridged the gap
between New Deal Democrats and the Joseph McCarthy wing of
the Republican Party.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Alan Nickman is our guest professor of history at American University.
You've used the term near great and great. So what
is a near great president and what is a great president?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Well, a great president is a president, as I've said,
who's led us through enormous challenges. And the great presidents
pretty much authorities agreed. There were three of them. George Washington,
who led us through the crisis of the founding of
the Republic when it was by no means secure that
the Republic would survive. Abraham Lincoln, who led us through
(06:24):
the Civil War, And Franklin Roosevelt, who led us through
the Great Depression and World War Two?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Right? Was Roosevelt before Roosevelt was elected? I mean, and
that was before term limits.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Correct, Yes, term limits did not come in until the
nineteen fifties.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Right, So he served four terms. I believe was Roosevelt.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
First president to serve more than two.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Served more than two? Well, I mean, was he considered,
was he anticipated to be a great leader?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Not necessarily? You know, there are a lot of doubts
about him, because of course he had suffered about with polio. Right,
you know, today we would say he was disabled, but
in those days they called him a cripple. It was
very different. You know, there was a lot of stigma attached,
and there were those who were worried that he had
the stamina and the good health to be a great president.
(07:16):
And he fooled them all but completely.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
How big of a role did his wife play in
all of this, because I don't know if it's fact
or myth that during his fourth term I've heard stories
and maybe she was running the country or that I mean,
is that hyperbole? Set me straight?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
That's hyperbole. That was more applicable to Woodrow Wilson after
his strokes. And Franklin Roosevelt barely served, you know, just
a few months of his fourth term. He died in April,
right nineteen forty five.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Fourth and give him how Harry came in, you know,
in Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
When Harry came in, served almost an tire full term right.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Right here in Massachusetts. Obviously, I mean, everybody is very
you know Kennedy country, if you will, now, I wanted
to ask you about John F. Kennedy. Obviously we all
know the tragedy involved there. He was not considered the
star of the family. His older brother was who was
(08:19):
killed in the wild Kennedy, Yes, Joe ed So his
older brother was being groomed to be president. And as
I remember with John and as I've read, you know,
he was kind of like like to have a good time,
which you know, rumors say that he did in the
oval office, but when he was president, but he liked
(08:40):
to have a good time. Maybe he was the party guy.
Maybe he wasn't as serious as his older brother. How
did he do when yeah, he was here, was alive,
how did he do?
Speaker 3 (08:50):
You know? He was lightly regarded as a senator, right,
you know, he wasn't a great senator, unlike later his
brother Ted Kennedy of course that became president, but was
a great senator. He was pretty lightly regarded, but he
rose to the occasion. As President of the United States,
he steered us through one of the most perilous crises
(09:13):
in the history of the world, the Cuban missile crisis,
that easily easily could have led to nuclear war, but
for Kennedy's leadership. That also changed his outlook to the world,
which he announced at my university in his famous commencement
speech at American University that led directly to the most
(09:35):
important treaty in the history of the world, the nuclear
test span treaty that stopped us from poisoning our oceans,
our atmosphere, and our soil. And by the way, my
co developer of the Keys to the White House, Vladimir
kylis Borack, was a member of the Soviet delegation that
came to Washington back then and negotiated the treaty.
Speaker 2 (09:59):
I do want to get to that because I was
I was reading up on your methodology. I saw that
which was very, very very interesting. We've got I've got
some more presidents, and if I don't mention a particular president,
please bring it up and we will get to the
topic of Trump and Kamala. Vice President Harrison.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
I don't have a prediction yet. I just want to
warn you. I think I mentioned that in my email.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
That's fine, I can't I can't get you. You don't
want to shoot from the hip. I'm kidding. I'm kidding.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Oh my god. I've been doing this for forty years,
and you know my hip is Christine.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Yeah, okay, Alan, But I do want to ask you
about the and we'll go over the thirteen questions that
I read too and your methodology with that. I do
want to get into that, but I want to continue
the conversation about presidents who we didn't expect a lot
from and they came through. Alan Lickman is our guest
professor of history at American University in Washington on WBC's
(10:55):
Night Side.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Now back to Dan ray Live from the Window World
Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
Gary tag Away for Dan Raig tonight here on WBZ
Alan Lickman, our guest professor of history from American University,
talking about presidents and those who have exceeded expectations. We
will also get into his methodology in the success he's
had in predicting the president's or winners the last ten
goal rounds. I want to get back to Reagan for
(11:25):
a minute because it's so interesting when you mentioned Ronald
Reagan and how he's considered to be the great Republican
president because things have go gone so far to the
right right now. I mean, if Reagan was running today,
he'd be a moderate, correct.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
He'd be outside the current MAGA mainstream of the Republican Party. Right.
You know, they no longer talk about being Reagan Republicans.
They're now Trump Republicans, which is enough like being a
Reagan Republican. Remember, Reagan was, you know, very aggressive in
promoting American interests and projecting our power abroad and defending
(12:12):
and promoting democracy. He was the guy who called the
Soviet Union ego empire, that everything has power to try
to bring down the Soviet Union, which did happen under
his successor, George H. W. Bush. And he avoided social
issues like abortion or school prayer. You know, he was
Ronald Reagan had some very strong commitments. They were two
(12:38):
conservative economics, tax cuts and deregulation and people, and they
went to democracy around the world. And the third thing
that people don't understand is he was committed to ending
a scourge of nuclear weapons. He and Gorbachev came within
an inch of a treaty banning offensive nuclear weapons, and
(12:58):
it was the military establishments on both sawdi really killed it.
But Reagan did have the extraordinary accomplishment of the Intermediate
Nuclear Forces Treaty, which got rid of those missiles in
Europe which could reach their target in a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Well, what I always said about Reagan, because as a
member of the Screen Actors Guild in nineteen sixty he
was for the working man for the working person, where
he was the head of the union, and he got
one great deal for the actors that has existed for
a long time. So while people always thought of Reagan
(13:37):
as sort of pro management, there was a time where
he was pro labor.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
He started out as a Rose Franklin Roosevelt Democrat. Now
he says what pushed him to the right was encountering
communist opposition in the unions. But he made quite an
odyssey in his political ideology.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Do you think Reagan was unfairly criticized for his intelligence?
Speaker 3 (14:05):
Absolutely, you know, if you look at his radio broadcast,
some of his writings, he was much sharper than people
made him out to be. He wasn't just this kind
of simpleton who was led by the nose by his staff,
not at all. I'd like to mention one other surprising president,
(14:26):
maybe in some ways, the most surprising president, someone you
would have thought of. It's Chester Allen, author who was
vice president to James Garfield, who was the collector of
the customs in New York, considered a party hacked, corrupt,
(14:47):
and of course he became president when Garfield was assassinated,
and our incredible shock and surprise. He presided over the
enactment of the one of the most important pieces of
domestic reform legislation, the Civil Service Reform Act, the Pendleton
Act that established the merit system of appointments in the
(15:12):
federal administrations, something that of course Donald Trump has threatened
to do away with. But you know, it's absolutely opposite
of what people thought author represented.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
What do you think it is in that situation that
the person rises to the occasion that they realize they
have the most important job in the world.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
I think that's a big part of it. But not
everyone rises to the occasion. Of course, we've had presidential disasters,
the worst of which was Andrew Johnson, of course, who
became president upon the assassination of Abraham Lincoln and everything
in his power to fraught the integration of the freed
(15:58):
slaves into American world life, and as a result of that,
became the first American president to be impeached.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Do you feel who do you feel he is the
worst American president?
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Well, he's certainly down on the bottom, you know, with
James Buchanan, Donald Trump, Franklin Pierce.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
You mentioned Trump. Is there anything good? And I don't
mean to get political but in his home.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
I don't want to get political. I'm just giving you
the judgment of historians.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
No, no, no, but but pretty consistent, pretty consistent with Trump, With.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Trump, with Johnson, with Buchanan, they're all down towards the bottom.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
You know, I brought this name up as a surprise,
and my wife thought I was nuts. Clinton.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
Clinton, Clinton is a very, very difficult case to analyze.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
I'll come.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
You know, there's not much in the way of huge
domestic accomplishments like Social Security or the Wagoner Act or
the Affordable Care Act, or the Civil Rights Act or
the Voting Rights Act. And you know, he didn't lead
us through a major ward and then he got involved stupidly,
you know, incredibly with Monica Lewinsky Sattle. But on the
(17:23):
other hand, Clinton did preside over peace, tranquility and one
of the greatest periods of prosperity in American history, and
was the last president to actually balance the federal budget.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Well that's what I was going to say, right, He
balanced the budget, which now seems impossible.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Oh when they're even close, I mean, yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
I mean, we just print more money, that's all. Just
you know, I wish I had a money machine in
my base, we just print more money.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Clinton was extremely likable. I mean that was even with
the I mean the Monica that's I mean, that's just
a Travis. But I was totally I was told with
somebody that worked with Clinton he was the consummate politician.
Is he remembered everybody's name, everybody did, and very appealed.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
I know him, I know him fairly well and very
appealing personally. But a womanizer? Can I tell you?
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Oh well, yeah, well hey, let me ask you, and
maybe putting on your spot, is there some connection between
political power and the need to be a womanizer?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Oh? Absolutely, you know Henry Kissinger, not exactly. You know,
A Rock Hudson in his looks said, you know, power
is the ultimate aphrodisiac. And you know, there is certainly
seems to be a strong correlation between these men of
power and they're womanizing, just so much of it. You know.
Maybe the worst was someone we don't want focus on,
(18:51):
Warren Harding. I did.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
I Yeah, you got me on that one.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
He was such a womanizer that they had to send
his mistress on a trip around the world so she
wouldn't embarrass him. In the nineteen twenty campaign, and then
he continued an affair with named Britain after he was
president and fathered her child. My god, she sued him.
Suit didn't go anywhere, but later evidence proved yes it
(19:20):
was his child. He actually had a rapid response team
to deal with his many accusations of womanizing. And we've
discovered these incredibly schemy, explicit letters between himself and his mistress.
He even named his member. If that can imagine.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Whoa slow down? I mean, what year was this?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
He was president, He got elected in nineteen twenty and
died in nineteen twenty three. So this is, you know,
a long time ago, one hundred years ago.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Well, so you got to tell us you can't bury
the lead. What do you call it?
Speaker 3 (19:58):
I know I'm going to I'm not going to get
in to that, but I will say, come on, no, no, no, no,
no no. He also said, you know, my marriage is loveless.
You know, I have no interest in my wife. And
when he died, there was something who thought his wife
poisoned him, and she then burned all his official and
(20:20):
private papers.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Oh my god, I have where do I go now?
I mean, that is just that's got to be a movie.
I mean we got to get a scroll. Yeah, oh
my word.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
Anyway, enough of Well, I want.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
To ask you about the case. So what do you
think about Kennedy and Maryland? I'm sorry, what do you
think about Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe?
Speaker 3 (20:42):
I can't I can't confirm or deny, but it certainly fits.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Well, that's my point is I think. But but we've
seen it with the reason I asked the question. I've
seen it in media. Look at the guy that ran Fox, Murdoch,
not Murdoch, the other guy, Roger Ales. I mean, I mean,
he was so common. It's so common, it's unbelievable. It's
the it's power is the aphrodisiac. You're right, And whether
(21:09):
you're a president of a company or a CEO of
a corporation, or you're leading you know, you're leading a country,
or you're leading a.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Political famous rock star actor.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
I mean Martin Luther King, right, I mean, wasn't Martin
Luther King a womanizer to supposedly apparently?
Speaker 3 (21:26):
So?
Speaker 2 (21:27):
You know, so it's like almost.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Political ideological lines. Yeah, not unique, although recently, unfortunately, there
has been one group that has been particularly prone to
scandal and in the most hypocritical way. And that's evangelical Christians.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I don't get that. I mean, it's so.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
True, it's just amazing.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
It's that's that that that it's and coming up at
ten o'clock, my friend who's a writer on the Gemstones
is going to be joining us. Boy, what a what
a segue there. I have a couple more questions for
you here, Alan.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Can you hang on yeah real fast?
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah, Okay, We're gonna take a break the come back.
I have some more questions for Alan Lickman and also
find out when he will make his prediction, which he's
been very good at. It's all coming up next to WBZ.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Okay, talking about President's at exceeded expectations with the presidential
expert Allen Lookman, professor at American University in Washington, d C.
I got to ask you Obama was what was what
was the feeling when he was elected? Because he didn't
how long was he in Congress? Like a term two?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
He was in the Senate just barely just too yeah,
I mean year or two came out of nowhere when
he made his famous two thousand and four election, not
an election, but convey speech that all of a sudden
took this unknown guy who was a state senator from
Illinois and elevated him into a national candidate. And that
(23:09):
was right here in your show, is in PG.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Is now Heck, no, don't worry about it.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I'll give you the names if you want.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Sure, go ahead. Let her rip and.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Her private part Missus Powderson, Warren Harding's letters.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Oh my god, I don't imagine. No, I can't, I can't.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Nobody knows this but me.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Those are the types of things you learned when Gary
Tangway feels in for Dan Ray on Nightside. No, my
wife was at the convention here in Boston when Obama spoke,
and she called me right away and she said, I
just saw the next rock star in the Democratic Party.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Your wife is very smart. All right, we have limited time.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Are you telling me to wrap it up?
Speaker 3 (24:00):
All right? Development of the Keys anyway?
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Oh, that's right, you're right, you're right, you're right. I'm
going to ask you about one more guy, because I
think this is my guy that does not get enough credit.
Is Gerald Ford.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hey, you know Gerald Ford gets a lot of bad raps.
You know, he's supposedly the stumble bumb who was tripping.
He was the best athlete probably ever to hold the president.
I believe he was an All American linement at the
University of Michigan. Yes, and he did. You know, he
wasn't a great or near great president, but he wasn't
(24:38):
nearly as bad. You know, what he did was an
enormous service to the country. I hate to say this
because I'm no Richard Nixon fan, but pardoning Richard Nixon
was the right thing to do because otherwise his presidency
would have been completely consumed by the trials of Richard Nixon,
who was gone. He had no power, you know, he
(25:01):
had already resigned. And it was also important for starting
us down the road and some very important deregulations.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
He had to steady the ship. Yes, okay, so let's
get to the thirteen keys. Nine out of the last
ten elections. You have nailed it, with Gore being the
rare exception, so you could be the only exception. We
could argue there, So run that down, argue what's that?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
I think I was right. You can check out my
report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. Still
on the website that proved the wrong person was elected
President Florida screwed up, go should have won. But we're
not going to relitigate that now.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
No, we're not. So how do you? When will you
make your prediction on this election? And just tell us
about your in.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
A week, within a week.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Within a week, and what's your process.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
The thirteen keys are different from the pundits, which have
no scientific basis, and the pulsters, which produce snapshots not predictions.
They're based on how elections really work, based on voters
voting up or down, on the strength and performance of
the White House Party. They're thirteen key factors, and if
(26:23):
six or more go against the White House Party, they're
predicted losers. Otherwise they're predicted winners. They're things like midterm elections,
incumbency party, contests for the incumbent party, third party, short
and long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign
(26:45):
successes and failures, and only two keys relate to the candidates,
and they're very high threshold keys.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
When I read the keys, I thought, okay, this makes sense,
and a lot of it's just your common sense exactly.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
They're intuitive like these complicated you know, political science models
that no one can understand.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
Well, right, you know you said, it's simply a lot
of it has to do with the economy. You know,
it's the economy stupid.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
That's part of it. Yeah, that's all.
Speaker 2 (27:16):
Yeah, of course, because people vote with their pocketbook.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
But not always. You know, Hillary Clinton should have won
in twenty sixteen. It was a good economy pubet. Humphrey
should have won in nineteen sixty eight. It was one
of the greatest economies ever had the nineteen sixties. So
not always.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
The thing with Hillary is why I have more indicators
and you're smart. The thing with Hillary is, and even
some women, she just wasn't likable, which bring in the
eyes of some.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
I mean, I voted for her, but so Richard Nixon
was likable when he won in nineteen sixty eight and
nineteen seventy two. It was one of the most unlikable
political figures ever had. Humphrey was a very likable guy,
very affable.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
I think it's a tougher I think it because I
think the hardest thing for women, I think is to
be tough, and like I think women get a bad rat.
I think it's a tough challenge for a woman. I
think it's easier for a man to be in a
position of power than a woman because a woman has
to check.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
I agree with that, but again, my system, what's at
the strength and performance of the White House Party. That's
why I was able to pick Trump in twenty sixteen,
which did not make me popular in ninety percent plus
Democratic Washington d C. I'm teach at AU American University.
(28:36):
But I did get a letter of congratulations which said congrats, profess,
a good call and a big sharpie letters signed Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Well, there you go. You can put that on the
wall if you will.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
It's on my wall right here in my study.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
I have to ask you one final question because I'm
going to get into this in a little bit. Vice
President Harris, and I think she's extremely likable. I don't
think it's going to come down to the issues. I
just think that if you don't like Trump, you're going
to vote for her. And I think she played it
safe with the CNN interview, and if she continues to
(29:11):
play it safe, that's our best shot.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
I don't disagree with you, but again, my system, and
you know I'll have my prediction within a week, does
not turn on the events of the campaign. That's why
I was able to predict reagan re election in nineteen
eighty four, nineteen eighty two, Obama's reelection in twenty ten,
(29:36):
the defeat of Republicans in two thousand and eight in
two thousand and six before I even knew who the
candidates were.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Interesting stuff. Well, we look forward to it, Alan, We
will be watching. I assume you will announce this via
social media.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Yes, and it should also come out in the New York.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Times, okay, Alan.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
And we're doing a video. And the video shows I'm
not just history nerd. It features my gold medal win
in the Maryland Senior Olympics for the eight hundred meter
dash and my nineteen eighty one number one quis show
win on tic Tac dough.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
I saw that too, but let's not forget about it
says that you're a former three thousand meters steeplechase champion.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
Yes i am. I was the sub Submasters North American
three thousand meters steeplechase champion, the race designed for horses
run by people.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
He's a man for all seasons. Alan Lickman a pleasure
professor of history at American University, will be looking for
your prediction to the White House within a week.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
Take care, Thanks for the interview.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
Thanks for coming on. Very interesting stuff, great guy, true character,
very obviously a very smart man. We're going to get
into some TV. We're going to get into the Gemstones,
We're going to get into a local guy who's done
good in Hollywood. Chris Pappis, writer, director, producer, joins us.
(31:01):
Coming up at ten o'clock here on.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
WBZ Now back to Dan Way Live from the Window
World night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Hey, welcome back, Gary Tank Waine for Dan roy tonight
allan Lickman, always a great guest, very interesting guy. In
a week, he will have his prediction for the White House,
whether it be Trump or whether it be Vice President Kamala.
Harris could be interesting to see his thirteen Keys to
the White House. And as he mentioned, a lot of
(31:32):
it's just common sense, the economy, whether the country is
at war, who's controlling the House, who's controlling the Senate.
And I did watch the Harris interview on CNN with
Dana Bash and she didn't screw it up. That's kind
(31:56):
of the way I look at it. She talked about
a four thousand dollars tax credit for families, promoting the
middle promoting the middle class. Now, I did not watch
it live. I mean, who does anybody watch anything live anymore?
Speaker 3 (32:11):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (32:11):
You know, so I what, But people who did watch
it live said that they felt like she didn't really
say anything. She didn't go out on a limb. Obviously,
she's gonna be for the middle class. She's gonna be
for the middle class. She's talking about young families. She's
talking about young family and it is so expensive now,
I mean, things are out of control. I mean the
(32:33):
price talking about groceries, the price for food, so for
it's just things that we have taken for granted. How
families are gonna need help with that? So that seems
to be pretty democratic. That seems to be kind of
right along the party line that you would expect. I
didn't think. I don't look at that. For Vice President
(32:54):
Harris to come out and say, you know, families with
young children are going to get a fourth one thousand
dollars tax credit so they can afford better food. I
don't look at that as communism, you know, or some
far radical left idea at all. I look at that
(33:15):
as compassion call me crazy. I just think it's just
having compassion. That's what That is. The one thing I
do think she needs to work on, though. She needs
to be more concise. It's a sink when she speaks.
She wanders still a little bit. And that's something that
(33:37):
President Obama. Obama was very good at. That's something that
Trump is good at. When Trump says something, he says
it with confidence. He says it clearly. It may be insane,
it may be crazy. It may be saying you can
cure the pandemic with bleach, but he says it clearly,
(34:01):
and he sells it. He sells it.
Speaker 3 (34:05):
Now.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
You may not be buying, but there are a lot
of people that are a lot of people are buying it.
She waffles a little bit sometimes it really is. I
gotta be honest with you folks. Quite often it's the
way you say it. It's how you say it as
opposed to what you say, and that's that's that's nuts.
(34:26):
But take it from a guy that's been in the
media thirty years. There's a lot of truth in that.
She needs to get a lot of She needs to
get smoother in that regard. I think that's what needs
to happen there, but people, you know. And another thing
she said in the interview that well, there's only like
(34:47):
sixty eight days left in the election. Everybody keeps talking
about Oh, the question, I'm sorry, let me back up
speaking of it, speaking clear clearly. The question was asked
by Dana Bash. She said, you know, are you looking
at would you have a Republican in your cabinet? And
she said yes, And she asked Vice President Harris, are
(35:11):
you looking at names? Are you thinking about who would
be in your cabinet? And so of course she goes, oh, no,
I have to worry about the election. There's only sixty
something days left. And maybe my math is off, but
I think I'm in the ballpark. It's a bunch of
crap when people talk about there's only so much time left.
And when they were talking about replacing Joe Biden with her,
(35:33):
they had to do it sooner than later, and you
had to do it before the convention. No, you don't
was in such an immediate society. I am convinced that
someone could jump into the presidential race now and if
they had the right message win now. It's obviously it's
not going to happen because the Democrats and the Republicans
have their person. But for the sake of this argument,
(35:55):
everything is so immediate.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
It is.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
I mean, even as tragic as the attempt on President
Trump's life was, people have forgotten about it. And you
should not. And I'm not a Trump person, I'm not
a Trump guy, but you should not forget about that.
The person almost lost his life, which would have been
absolute hell and a disaster. But with the news cycle
(36:20):
now it's like, what have you done for me in
the last twenty four hours? What have you done for
I just think that's the way it is, you know,
And when it comes to and one of the reasons
I wanted to talk down on Lickman is when it
comes to evaluating someone's vice presidency, I mean, really, look
the one thing about Harris, she should have gone to
(36:43):
the border. I don't understand why she didn't. It would
have been a photo op. She could have gone down
there and represented Joe. But I don't understand why she didn't.
And I don't think it's her call, to be quite
honest with you, I think the administration would have should
have made the call. We said, listen, Vice President Harris
would want you to go on the border photo. Oh
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. And in the
interview with Bash, she did say, look, Trump's people negated
(37:05):
the bipartisan deal they had to improve things at the border.
They did. Look, the border is just the elephant in
the room. Is the way I see it is either
you shut it down or you don't. And people want
to look at America as the land of opportunity, where
you know, my grandparents came from My great grandparents came
(37:30):
from Canada and Prince Edward Island and you know before that, Ireland,
And well it's not the same anymore. It's not the
same situation. Immigration needs to be controlled and if they
wanted to, if they wanted to control it, to control it.
Trump didn't want this administration to control it because he
(37:52):
wanted to use it as a political blag. He didn't
want them to come up with a solution. He wants
to come up with a solution. No, no, no, that's mine.
Wait for me. And it's not as simple as build
a wall. But I still think that it's attainable and
you can do it, and for whatever reason, neither party
has done it. You can control immigration, you can control
(38:16):
the boarder. If this is going to be cliche, but
it's true. If you can put a person on the moon,
you can do it. And I know it's big, I
know there's a lot of land, and I know it's
going to cost money. But you can do it. You
can do it. I just don't think either party wants
(38:39):
to do it because they like to use it for
political purposes. That's what they do. They want to use
it for political purposes. It drives me nuts. You can
have controlled immigration, and I understand, I'm talking thousands of miles,
We're talking a lot of construction. We're talking people. Power
(38:59):
creates jobs. You want to create jobs while you're president.
Let's control the border. Let's get a system where people
can come into this country and work and look for
a new life without having to cross a river with
(39:21):
their three kids with the risk of drowning. It can
be done. I just don't think the powers will be wanted.
That's what Gary Tanglis is here at nine fifty seven
on Labor Day. Have you seen the Righteous Jemstones? Dynna
McBride is hilarious, John Goodman is great, and that there
are so many great actors in that series. And one
(39:44):
of the reasons is so good is a guy right
here from Massachusetts has taken part of it. He's my buddy,
Chris Pappas. And we continue our theme of Bostonians who
have done well in Hollywood. That's all coming up next
to ten o'clock right here on WBZ Boston News Radio,
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's new radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Dan Ray, the big Kahuna run here. He has the
holidays off. You know, all the big names, Dude, Gary
Tangle here and it's always great to fill in for Dad.
We'll be hanging out with you all week long. Still
the come of the show. Chris pappas the pride of
Algonquin High School. He's a big shot of Hollywood man.
He's a producer and a writer on Gemstones. And we
continue our series of talking to Boston people who have
(00:29):
gone to LA and done well. It's amazing. It's amazing
how many people from Massachusetts and New England, Boston that are
in show business in LA. It's kind of crazy. And
I've been on movie set since before and playing various
roles and somebody will say, oh, you know, they're based
in Santa Monica and they'll be the first ad or
(00:49):
one of the camera guys and they're all from Boston
and they all went West. I mean Ray Donovan, which
was one of my favorite shows. It's true, folks, a
lot of Bostonians out there and Chris is one of
them and he's done really well. Ran a bunch of movies,
produce a bunch of movies and some stuff. But I'm
Sandler and working on the Gemstones with Danny McBride, And
what I'd like to do is talk to people who
(01:10):
have done well in show business who are local, Like
talk to my guys Donning Wahlberg the other day, try
to get him on this week and talk about their
career path. Michael Maddley joined us from Nashville, New Hampshire.
We all know the MIC has done really well in
this area, so that's what we're going to be talking
about here coming up at ten o'clock. And Alan Lickman
(01:31):
joins us right now, the professor of history from American University. Alan,
I'm so happy you're with us. Thank you for coming on.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
This my great pleasure. Uh.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
There's a couple of things I want to talk to
you about. And I do want to get into the
presidential predictions because you're certainly known for that coming up.
But I was I was thinking, you know, about the
whole presidential thing, and you know, people talk about Kamala Harris,
and I don't really need to get into whether you
vote for Trump or Harris or you know, that's your
(02:04):
business whatever. But like like everybody thinks, like Harris, she's
got a terrible track record in the eyes of her,
in the eyes of some okay, but like she could
still go on to become a great president. And like,
how many times has somebody gone on to be a
great president Alan that we thought was gonna stink? It
happens more than we think, doesn't.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
It happens all the time.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
One of the most lightly regarded candidates was Ronald Reagan.
People said, oh my god, he's way too radical, way
too extreme to be even elected president, much less to
be a good president. And of course Ronald Reagan today
is regarded as the iconic Republican president. Harry Truman was
(02:54):
very lightly regarded in his own time. In fact, every
single election poll bar Nunn said he would not win
election on his own in nineteen forty eight, he went
on to win, not by a hair but by about
five points. He brought in a Democratic Congress, and today
(03:15):
is regarded not as a great president, but one of
the near great presidents.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, my dad always talked about Harry Truman because he's
my dad. Fought in World War Two. Well, he didn't
fight in World War two, I need to be careful.
He was, he was he was state side due to
a medical issue. But he worked in a hospital state side,
and he had he had there's a he was a liability,
so they wouldn't send him overseas. But he talked about Truman.
Give him hell, Harry and the whole thing. You know,
do we beat Truman? Remember was that the Chicago Trump
(03:42):
New York Times, Chicago, I can't remember which paper.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
It was, Congo Daily.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Chicago News. You know, do we beat Truman?
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
And everybody and by the way, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
They pulled forty leading pundits in nineteen forty eight, and
you know how many thought Truman would win.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Zero, right, right right, And so he wins, and then
of course the bomb on Horosima and he goes down
in history. Is one of the toughest presidents or you know,
it also seems to me or the president. It's what
that particular person had to deal with at the time,
you know, because great challenges and great moments, for example,
like Eisenhower. Is Eisenhower considered a great.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
President, Well, no, but he's considered a near great president.
You know. Theodore Roosevelt was also not considered a great,
but a near great president, complained, imagine this, I didn't
have a great war or great national security threat to.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Right, right, isn't even right? Yes, I mean he didn't
have that big issue. That's the thing with Ike. I
mean everybody remembers Ike from d Day, of course, But
like the fifties, everything was great. People came home from
the war. The economy was going great. Like my parents,
they were able to buy a house, people had a
ca more factories were booming, America's economy was growing great.
(05:03):
There really wasn't anything for Ike to do, was there.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Well? You know, Ike, because he was a social right
really understood the horrors of war. And I think, you know,
the best thing that came out of the Eisenhower years
was he avoided foolish wars, including avoiding the pressure to
intervene militarily on the side of the French, the French
colonialists in Vietnam. He diffused the conflict between Egypt on
(05:33):
the one hand, and Israel, France and Britain on the
other hand without getting America involved. And he was a
moderate president, you know, who kind of bridged the gap
between New Deal Democrats and the Joseph McCarthy wing of
the Republican Party.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Alan Nickman is our guest professor of history at American University.
You've used the term near great and great. So what
is a near great president and what is a great president?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Well, a great president is a president, as I've said,
who's led us through enormous challenges. And the great presidents
pretty much authorities agreed. There were three of them. George Washington,
who led us through the crisis of the founding of
the Republic when it was by no means secure that
the Republic would survive. Abraham Lincoln, who led us through
(06:24):
the Civil War, And Franklin Roosevelt, who led us through
the Great Depression and World War Two?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Right? Was Roosevelt before Roosevelt was elected? I mean, and
that was before term limits.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Correct, Yes, term limits did not come in until the
nineteen fifties.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Right, So he served four terms. I believe was Roosevelt.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
First president to serve more than two.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Served more than two? Well, I mean, was he considered,
was he anticipated to be a great leader?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Not necessarily? You know, there are a lot of doubts
about him, because of course he had suffered about with polio. Right,
you know, today we would say he was disabled, but
in those days they called him a cripple. It was
very different. You know, there was a lot of stigma attached,
and there were those who were worried that he had
the stamina and the good health to be a great president.
(07:16):
And he fooled them all but completely.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
How big of a role did his wife play in
all of this, because I don't know if it's fact
or myth that during his fourth term I've heard stories
and maybe she was running the country or that I mean,
is that hyperbole? Set me straight?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
That's hyperbole. That was more applicable to Woodrow Wilson after
his strokes. And Franklin Roosevelt barely served, you know, just
a few months of his fourth term. He died in April,
right nineteen forty five.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Fourth and give him how Harry came in, you know,
in Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
When Harry came in, served almost an tire full term right.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Right here in Massachusetts. Obviously, I mean, everybody is very
you know Kennedy country, if you will, now, I wanted
to ask you about John F. Kennedy. Obviously we all
know the tragedy involved there. He was not considered the
star of the family. His older brother was who was
(08:19):
killed in the wild Kennedy, Yes, Joe ed So his
older brother was being groomed to be president. And as
I remember with John and as I've read, you know,
he was kind of like like to have a good time,
which you know, rumors say that he did in the
oval office, but when he was president, but he liked
(08:40):
to have a good time. Maybe he was the party guy.
Maybe he wasn't as serious as his older brother. How
did he do when yeah, he was here, was alive,
how did he do?
Speaker 3 (08:50):
You know? He was lightly regarded as a senator, right,
you know, he wasn't a great senator, unlike later his
brother Ted Kennedy of course that became president, but was
a great senator. He was pretty lightly regarded, but he
rose to the occasion. As President of the United States,
he steered us through one of the most perilous crises
(09:13):
in the history of the world, the Cuban missile crisis,
that easily easily could have led to nuclear war, but
for Kennedy's leadership. That also changed his outlook to the world,
which he announced at my university in his famous commencement
speech at American University that led directly to the most
(09:35):
important treaty in the history of the world, the nuclear
test span treaty that stopped us from poisoning our oceans,
our atmosphere, and our soil. And by the way, my
co developer of the Keys to the White House, Vladimir
kylis Borack, was a member of the Soviet delegation that
came to Washington back then and negotiated the treaty.
Speaker 2 (09:59):
I do want to get to that because I was
I was reading up on your methodology. I saw that
which was very, very very interesting. We've got I've got
some more presidents, and if I don't mention a particular president,
please bring it up and we will get to the
topic of Trump and Kamala. Vice President Harrison.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
I don't have a prediction yet. I just want to
warn you. I think I mentioned that in my email.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
That's fine, I can't I can't get you. You don't
want to shoot from the hip. I'm kidding. I'm kidding.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Oh my god. I've been doing this for forty years,
and you know my hip is Christine.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Yeah, okay, Alan, But I do want to ask you
about the and we'll go over the thirteen questions that
I read too and your methodology with that. I do
want to get into that, but I want to continue
the conversation about presidents who we didn't expect a lot
from and they came through. Alan Lickman is our guest
professor of history at American University in Washington on WBC's
(10:55):
Night Side.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Now back to Dan ray Live from the Window World
Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
Gary tag Away for Dan Raig tonight here on WBZ
Alan Lickman, our guest professor of history from American University,
talking about presidents and those who have exceeded expectations. We
will also get into his methodology in the success he's
had in predicting the president's or winners the last ten
goal rounds. I want to get back to Reagan for
(11:25):
a minute because it's so interesting when you mentioned Ronald
Reagan and how he's considered to be the great Republican
president because things have go gone so far to the
right right now. I mean, if Reagan was running today,
he'd be a moderate, correct.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
He'd be outside the current MAGA mainstream of the Republican Party. Right.
You know, they no longer talk about being Reagan Republicans.
They're now Trump Republicans, which is enough like being a
Reagan Republican. Remember, Reagan was, you know, very aggressive in
promoting American interests and projecting our power abroad and defending
(12:12):
and promoting democracy. He was the guy who called the
Soviet Union ego empire, that everything has power to try
to bring down the Soviet Union, which did happen under
his successor, George H. W. Bush. And he avoided social
issues like abortion or school prayer. You know, he was
Ronald Reagan had some very strong commitments. They were two
(12:38):
conservative economics, tax cuts and deregulation and people, and they
went to democracy around the world. And the third thing
that people don't understand is he was committed to ending
a scourge of nuclear weapons. He and Gorbachev came within
an inch of a treaty banning offensive nuclear weapons, and
(12:58):
it was the military establishments on both sawdi really killed it.
But Reagan did have the extraordinary accomplishment of the Intermediate
Nuclear Forces Treaty, which got rid of those missiles in
Europe which could reach their target in a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Well, what I always said about Reagan, because as a
member of the Screen Actors Guild in nineteen sixty he
was for the working man for the working person, where
he was the head of the union, and he got
one great deal for the actors that has existed for
a long time. So while people always thought of Reagan
(13:37):
as sort of pro management, there was a time where
he was pro labor.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
He started out as a Rose Franklin Roosevelt Democrat. Now
he says what pushed him to the right was encountering
communist opposition in the unions. But he made quite an
odyssey in his political ideology.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Do you think Reagan was unfairly criticized for his intelligence?
Speaker 3 (14:05):
Absolutely, you know, if you look at his radio broadcast,
some of his writings, he was much sharper than people
made him out to be. He wasn't just this kind
of simpleton who was led by the nose by his staff,
not at all. I'd like to mention one other surprising president,
(14:26):
maybe in some ways, the most surprising president, someone you
would have thought of. It's Chester Allen, author who was
vice president to James Garfield, who was the collector of
the customs in New York, considered a party hacked, corrupt,
(14:47):
and of course he became president when Garfield was assassinated,
and our incredible shock and surprise. He presided over the
enactment of the one of the most important pieces of
domestic reform legislation, the Civil Service Reform Act, the Pendleton
Act that established the merit system of appointments in the
(15:12):
federal administrations, something that of course Donald Trump has threatened
to do away with. But you know, it's absolutely opposite
of what people thought author represented.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
What do you think it is in that situation that
the person rises to the occasion that they realize they
have the most important job in the world.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
I think that's a big part of it. But not
everyone rises to the occasion. Of course, we've had presidential disasters,
the worst of which was Andrew Johnson, of course, who
became president upon the assassination of Abraham Lincoln and everything
in his power to fraught the integration of the freed
(15:58):
slaves into American world life, and as a result of that,
became the first American president to be impeached.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Do you feel who do you feel he is the
worst American president?
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Well, he's certainly down on the bottom, you know, with
James Buchanan, Donald Trump, Franklin Pierce.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
You mentioned Trump. Is there anything good? And I don't
mean to get political but in his home.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
I don't want to get political. I'm just giving you
the judgment of historians.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
No, no, no, but but pretty consistent, pretty consistent with Trump, With.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Trump, with Johnson, with Buchanan, they're all down towards the bottom.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
You know, I brought this name up as a surprise,
and my wife thought I was nuts. Clinton.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
Clinton, Clinton is a very, very difficult case to analyze.
Speaker 2 (16:58):
I'll come.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
You know, there's not much in the way of huge
domestic accomplishments like Social Security or the Wagoner Act or
the Affordable Care Act, or the Civil Rights Act or
the Voting Rights Act. And you know, he didn't lead
us through a major ward and then he got involved stupidly,
you know, incredibly with Monica Lewinsky Sattle. But on the
(17:23):
other hand, Clinton did preside over peace, tranquility and one
of the greatest periods of prosperity in American history, and
was the last president to actually balance the federal budget.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Well that's what I was going to say, right, He
balanced the budget, which now seems impossible.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Oh when they're even close, I mean, yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
I mean, we just print more money, that's all. Just
you know, I wish I had a money machine in
my base, we just print more money.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Clinton was extremely likable. I mean that was even with
the I mean the Monica that's I mean, that's just
a Travis. But I was totally I was told with
somebody that worked with Clinton he was the consummate politician.
Is he remembered everybody's name, everybody did, and very appealed.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
I know him, I know him fairly well and very
appealing personally. But a womanizer? Can I tell you?
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Oh well, yeah, well hey, let me ask you, and
maybe putting on your spot, is there some connection between
political power and the need to be a womanizer?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Oh? Absolutely, you know Henry Kissinger, not exactly. You know,
A Rock Hudson in his looks said, you know, power
is the ultimate aphrodisiac. And you know, there is certainly
seems to be a strong correlation between these men of
power and they're womanizing, just so much of it. You know.
Maybe the worst was someone we don't want focus on,
(18:51):
Warren Harding. I did.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
I Yeah, you got me on that one.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
He was such a womanizer that they had to send
his mistress on a trip around the world so she
wouldn't embarrass him. In the nineteen twenty campaign, and then
he continued an affair with named Britain after he was
president and fathered her child. My god, she sued him.
Suit didn't go anywhere, but later evidence proved yes it
(19:20):
was his child. He actually had a rapid response team
to deal with his many accusations of womanizing. And we've
discovered these incredibly schemy, explicit letters between himself and his mistress.
He even named his member. If that can imagine.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Whoa slow down? I mean, what year was this?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
He was president, He got elected in nineteen twenty and
died in nineteen twenty three. So this is, you know,
a long time ago, one hundred years ago.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Well, so you got to tell us you can't bury
the lead. What do you call it?
Speaker 3 (19:58):
I know I'm going to I'm not going to get
in to that, but I will say, come on, no, no, no, no,
no no. He also said, you know, my marriage is loveless.
You know, I have no interest in my wife. And
when he died, there was something who thought his wife
poisoned him, and she then burned all his official and
(20:20):
private papers.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Oh my god, I have where do I go now?
I mean, that is just that's got to be a movie.
I mean we got to get a scroll. Yeah, oh
my word.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
Anyway, enough of Well, I want.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
To ask you about the case. So what do you
think about Kennedy and Maryland? I'm sorry, what do you
think about Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe?
Speaker 3 (20:42):
I can't I can't confirm or deny, but it certainly fits.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Well, that's my point is I think. But but we've
seen it with the reason I asked the question. I've
seen it in media. Look at the guy that ran Fox, Murdoch,
not Murdoch, the other guy, Roger Ales. I mean, I mean,
he was so common. It's so common, it's unbelievable. It's
the it's power is the aphrodisiac. You're right, And whether
(21:09):
you're a president of a company or a CEO of
a corporation, or you're leading you know, you're leading a country,
or you're leading a.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Political famous rock star actor.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
I mean Martin Luther King, right, I mean, wasn't Martin
Luther King a womanizer to supposedly apparently?
Speaker 3 (21:26):
So?
Speaker 2 (21:27):
You know, so it's like almost.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Political ideological lines. Yeah, not unique, although recently, unfortunately, there
has been one group that has been particularly prone to
scandal and in the most hypocritical way. And that's evangelical Christians.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I don't get that. I mean, it's so.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
True, it's just amazing.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
It's that's that that that it's and coming up at
ten o'clock, my friend who's a writer on the Gemstones
is going to be joining us. Boy, what a what
a segue there. I have a couple more questions for
you here, Alan.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Can you hang on yeah real fast?
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah, Okay, We're gonna take a break the come back.
I have some more questions for Alan Lickman and also
find out when he will make his prediction, which he's
been very good at. It's all coming up next to WBZ.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Okay, talking about President's at exceeded expectations with the presidential
expert Allen Lookman, professor at American University in Washington, d C.
I got to ask you Obama was what was what
was the feeling when he was elected? Because he didn't
how long was he in Congress? Like a term two?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
He was in the Senate just barely just too yeah,
I mean year or two came out of nowhere when
he made his famous two thousand and four election, not
an election, but convey speech that all of a sudden
took this unknown guy who was a state senator from
Illinois and elevated him into a national candidate. And that
(23:09):
was right here in your show, is in PG.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Is now Heck, no, don't worry about it.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I'll give you the names if you want.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Sure, go ahead. Let her rip and.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Her private part Missus Powderson, Warren Harding's letters.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Oh my god, I don't imagine. No, I can't, I can't.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Nobody knows this but me.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Those are the types of things you learned when Gary
Tangway feels in for Dan Ray on Nightside. No, my
wife was at the convention here in Boston when Obama spoke,
and she called me right away and she said, I
just saw the next rock star in the Democratic Party.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Your wife is very smart. All right, we have limited time.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Are you telling me to wrap it up?
Speaker 3 (24:00):
All right? Development of the Keys anyway?
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Oh, that's right, you're right, you're right, you're right. I'm
going to ask you about one more guy, because I
think this is my guy that does not get enough credit.
Is Gerald Ford.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hey, you know Gerald Ford gets a lot of bad raps.
You know, he's supposedly the stumble bumb who was tripping.
He was the best athlete probably ever to hold the president.
I believe he was an All American linement at the
University of Michigan. Yes, and he did. You know, he
wasn't a great or near great president, but he wasn't
(24:38):
nearly as bad. You know, what he did was an
enormous service to the country. I hate to say this
because I'm no Richard Nixon fan, but pardoning Richard Nixon
was the right thing to do because otherwise his presidency
would have been completely consumed by the trials of Richard Nixon,
who was gone. He had no power, you know, he
(25:01):
had already resigned. And it was also important for starting
us down the road and some very important deregulations.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
He had to steady the ship. Yes, okay, so let's
get to the thirteen keys. Nine out of the last
ten elections. You have nailed it, with Gore being the
rare exception, so you could be the only exception. We
could argue there, So run that down, argue what's that?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
I think I was right. You can check out my
report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. Still
on the website that proved the wrong person was elected
President Florida screwed up, go should have won. But we're
not going to relitigate that now.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
No, we're not. So how do you? When will you
make your prediction on this election? And just tell us
about your in.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
A week, within a week.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Within a week, and what's your process.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
The thirteen keys are different from the pundits, which have
no scientific basis, and the pulsters, which produce snapshots not predictions.
They're based on how elections really work, based on voters
voting up or down, on the strength and performance of
the White House Party. They're thirteen key factors, and if
(26:23):
six or more go against the White House Party, they're
predicted losers. Otherwise they're predicted winners. They're things like midterm elections,
incumbency party, contests for the incumbent party, third party, short
and long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign
(26:45):
successes and failures, and only two keys relate to the candidates,
and they're very high threshold keys.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
When I read the keys, I thought, okay, this makes sense,
and a lot of it's just your common sense exactly.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
They're intuitive like these complicated you know, political science models
that no one can understand.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
Well, right, you know you said, it's simply a lot
of it has to do with the economy. You know,
it's the economy stupid.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
That's part of it. Yeah, that's all.
Speaker 2 (27:16):
Yeah, of course, because people vote with their pocketbook.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
But not always. You know, Hillary Clinton should have won
in twenty sixteen. It was a good economy pubet. Humphrey
should have won in nineteen sixty eight. It was one
of the greatest economies ever had the nineteen sixties. So
not always.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
The thing with Hillary is why I have more indicators
and you're smart. The thing with Hillary is, and even
some women, she just wasn't likable, which bring in the
eyes of some.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
I mean, I voted for her, but so Richard Nixon
was likable when he won in nineteen sixty eight and
nineteen seventy two. It was one of the most unlikable
political figures ever had. Humphrey was a very likable guy,
very affable.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
I think it's a tougher I think it because I
think the hardest thing for women, I think is to
be tough, and like I think women get a bad rat.
I think it's a tough challenge for a woman. I
think it's easier for a man to be in a
position of power than a woman because a woman has
to check.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
I agree with that, but again, my system, what's at
the strength and performance of the White House Party. That's
why I was able to pick Trump in twenty sixteen,
which did not make me popular in ninety percent plus
Democratic Washington d C. I'm teach at AU American University.
(28:36):
But I did get a letter of congratulations which said congrats, profess,
a good call and a big sharpie letters signed Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Well, there you go. You can put that on the
wall if you will.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
It's on my wall right here in my study.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
I have to ask you one final question because I'm
going to get into this in a little bit. Vice
President Harris, and I think she's extremely likable. I don't
think it's going to come down to the issues. I
just think that if you don't like Trump, you're going
to vote for her. And I think she played it
safe with the CNN interview, and if she continues to
(29:11):
play it safe, that's our best shot.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
I don't disagree with you, but again, my system, and
you know I'll have my prediction within a week, does
not turn on the events of the campaign. That's why
I was able to predict reagan re election in nineteen
eighty four, nineteen eighty two, Obama's reelection in twenty ten,
(29:36):
the defeat of Republicans in two thousand and eight in
two thousand and six before I even knew who the
candidates were.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Interesting stuff. Well, we look forward to it, Alan, We
will be watching. I assume you will announce this via
social media.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Yes, and it should also come out in the New York.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Times, okay, Alan.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
And we're doing a video. And the video shows I'm
not just history nerd. It features my gold medal win
in the Maryland Senior Olympics for the eight hundred meter
dash and my nineteen eighty one number one quis show
win on tic Tac dough.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
I saw that too, but let's not forget about it
says that you're a former three thousand meters steeplechase champion.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
Yes i am. I was the sub Submasters North American
three thousand meters steeplechase champion, the race designed for horses
run by people.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
He's a man for all seasons. Alan Lickman a pleasure
professor of history at American University, will be looking for
your prediction to the White House within a week.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
Take care, Thanks for the interview.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
Thanks for coming on. Very interesting stuff, great guy, true character,
very obviously a very smart man. We're going to get
into some TV. We're going to get into the Gemstones,
We're going to get into a local guy who's done
good in Hollywood. Chris Pappis, writer, director, producer, joins us.
(31:01):
Coming up at ten o'clock here on.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
WBZ Now back to Dan Way Live from the Window
World night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Hey, welcome back, Gary Tank Waine for Dan roy tonight
allan Lickman, always a great guest, very interesting guy. In
a week, he will have his prediction for the White House,
whether it be Trump or whether it be Vice President Kamala.
Harris could be interesting to see his thirteen Keys to
the White House. And as he mentioned, a lot of
(31:32):
it's just common sense, the economy, whether the country is
at war, who's controlling the House, who's controlling the Senate.
And I did watch the Harris interview on CNN with
Dana Bash and she didn't screw it up. That's kind
(31:56):
of the way I look at it. She talked about
a four thousand dollars tax credit for families, promoting the
middle promoting the middle class. Now, I did not watch
it live. I mean, who does anybody watch anything live anymore?
Speaker 3 (32:11):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (32:11):
You know, so I what, But people who did watch
it live said that they felt like she didn't really
say anything. She didn't go out on a limb. Obviously,
she's gonna be for the middle class. She's gonna be
for the middle class. She's talking about young families. She's
talking about young family and it is so expensive now,
I mean, things are out of control. I mean the
(32:33):
price talking about groceries, the price for food, so for
it's just things that we have taken for granted. How
families are gonna need help with that? So that seems
to be pretty democratic. That seems to be kind of
right along the party line that you would expect. I
didn't think. I don't look at that. For Vice President
(32:54):
Harris to come out and say, you know, families with
young children are going to get a fourth one thousand
dollars tax credit so they can afford better food. I
don't look at that as communism, you know, or some
far radical left idea at all. I look at that
(33:15):
as compassion call me crazy. I just think it's just
having compassion. That's what That is. The one thing I
do think she needs to work on, though. She needs
to be more concise. It's a sink when she speaks.
She wanders still a little bit. And that's something that
(33:37):
President Obama. Obama was very good at. That's something that
Trump is good at. When Trump says something, he says
it with confidence. He says it clearly. It may be insane,
it may be crazy. It may be saying you can
cure the pandemic with bleach, but he says it clearly,
(34:01):
and he sells it. He sells it.
Speaker 3 (34:05):
Now.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
You may not be buying, but there are a lot
of people that are a lot of people are buying it.
She waffles a little bit sometimes it really is. I
gotta be honest with you folks. Quite often it's the
way you say it. It's how you say it as
opposed to what you say, and that's that's that's nuts.
(34:26):
But take it from a guy that's been in the
media thirty years. There's a lot of truth in that.
She needs to get a lot of She needs to
get smoother in that regard. I think that's what needs
to happen there, but people, you know. And another thing
she said in the interview that well, there's only like
(34:47):
sixty eight days left in the election. Everybody keeps talking
about Oh, the question, I'm sorry, let me back up
speaking of it, speaking clear clearly. The question was asked
by Dana Bash. She said, you know, are you looking
at would you have a Republican in your cabinet? And
she said yes, And she asked Vice President Harris, are
(35:11):
you looking at names? Are you thinking about who would
be in your cabinet? And so of course she goes, oh, no,
I have to worry about the election. There's only sixty
something days left. And maybe my math is off, but
I think I'm in the ballpark. It's a bunch of
crap when people talk about there's only so much time left.
And when they were talking about replacing Joe Biden with her,
(35:33):
they had to do it sooner than later, and you
had to do it before the convention. No, you don't
was in such an immediate society. I am convinced that
someone could jump into the presidential race now and if
they had the right message win now. It's obviously it's
not going to happen because the Democrats and the Republicans
have their person. But for the sake of this argument,
(35:55):
everything is so immediate.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
It is.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
I mean, even as tragic as the attempt on President
Trump's life was, people have forgotten about it. And you
should not. And I'm not a Trump person, I'm not
a Trump guy, but you should not forget about that.
The person almost lost his life, which would have been
absolute hell and a disaster. But with the news cycle
(36:20):
now it's like, what have you done for me in
the last twenty four hours? What have you done for
I just think that's the way it is, you know,
And when it comes to and one of the reasons
I wanted to talk down on Lickman is when it
comes to evaluating someone's vice presidency, I mean, really, look
the one thing about Harris, she should have gone to
(36:43):
the border. I don't understand why she didn't. It would
have been a photo op. She could have gone down
there and represented Joe. But I don't understand why she didn't.
And I don't think it's her call, to be quite
honest with you, I think the administration would have should
have made the call. We said, listen, Vice President Harris
would want you to go on the border photo. Oh
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. And in the
interview with Bash, she did say, look, Trump's people negated
(37:05):
the bipartisan deal they had to improve things at the border.
They did. Look, the border is just the elephant in
the room. Is the way I see it is either
you shut it down or you don't. And people want
to look at America as the land of opportunity, where
you know, my grandparents came from My great grandparents came
(37:30):
from Canada and Prince Edward Island and you know before that, Ireland,
And well it's not the same anymore. It's not the
same situation. Immigration needs to be controlled and if they
wanted to, if they wanted to control it, to control it.
Trump didn't want this administration to control it because he
(37:52):
wanted to use it as a political blag. He didn't
want them to come up with a solution. He wants
to come up with a solution. No, no, no, that's mine.
Wait for me. And it's not as simple as build
a wall. But I still think that it's attainable and
you can do it, and for whatever reason, neither party
has done it. You can control immigration, you can control
(38:16):
the boarder. If this is going to be cliche, but
it's true. If you can put a person on the moon,
you can do it. And I know it's big, I
know there's a lot of land, and I know it's
going to cost money. But you can do it. You
can do it. I just don't think either party wants
(38:39):
to do it because they like to use it for
political purposes. That's what they do. They want to use
it for political purposes. It drives me nuts. You can
have controlled immigration, and I understand, I'm talking thousands of miles,
We're talking a lot of construction. We're talking people. Power
(38:59):
creates jobs. You want to create jobs while you're president.
Let's control the border. Let's get a system where people
can come into this country and work and look for
a new life without having to cross a river with
(39:21):
their three kids with the risk of drowning. It can
be done. I just don't think the powers will be wanted.
That's what Gary Tanglis is here at nine fifty seven
on Labor Day. Have you seen the Righteous Jemstones? Dynna
McBride is hilarious, John Goodman is great, and that there
are so many great actors in that series. And one
(39:44):
of the reasons is so good is a guy right
here from Massachusetts has taken part of it. He's my buddy,
Chris Pappas. And we continue our theme of Bostonians who
have done well in Hollywood. That's all coming up next
to ten o'clock right here on WBZ Boston News Radio,
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