April 9, 2025 • 39 mins
Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Trump raised the rate on China to 125% and paused steep reciprocal tariffs on all non-retaliating countries. The turbulence on Wall Street has certainly raised concerns for many. Jared Dillian, author and writer for his newsletter The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals joined Dan.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
It's night with Dan Ray. I'm going easy Boston video.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Tough night for Boston sports teams. Today, the stock market
had a great day after four days of a huge drop.
Stock market snapped back today based upon the decision by
the President to authorize a ninety day pause in his
reciprocal tariff plan. The all of the Wall Street, the
(00:33):
the S and P five hundred up nine point five
percent today, the Dow up seven point nine percent, the
NASDA C up twelve point one percent. It has not
made up the losses of the last week that started
with the President's announcement last Wednesday afternoon. So with us
to try to make some sense of this, as Jared Dillion,
(00:57):
Jared is someone who knows this area much better than
probably any guest I've had recently. So I'm delighted that
Jared has has us joined us tonight. He is a
graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy in nineteen ninety
six BS in mathematics and computer science from the University
(01:18):
of San Francisco. In two thousand and one, as a
master's in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance. He earned an
NBA Award for Highest Academic Average from the Savannah College
of Art and Design in twenty twenty three with a
Master of Fine Arts and Writing A He's accomplished in
many ways. He's an author. His books include Street Freak,
(01:40):
All the Evil of This World, A Passover One, No Worries,
and Night Moves. He also is a Progressive House DJ
and speaks frequently of mental health issues at financial Institution.
Has spent time on Wall Street himself, and has appeared
on Well Everything, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, tv BNN, New
(02:04):
York Times, LA Times Business Insiders. So, Jared Dillion, thank
you very much for joining us tonight. We're we're looking
forward to try to figure out what happened today. Did
it all come down to the decision by the President
to pause the implication, the implication, the implementation, I should say,
(02:26):
these tariffs for ninety days.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having me.
It's great to be talking to you. Yeah. I think
the Trump team was getting a little bit concerned about
the impact on the stock market, and there were some comments,
one in particular by Jamie Diamond, who's the CEO of
JP Morgan. Jamie Diamond said that the tariffs would cause
(02:52):
a recession and they would cause corporate defaults, they would
cause bankruptcies, and Jamie Diamond is is some what you
want to listen to. And I think I think the
combination of these things led to Trump saying something that
would explicitly make the stock market go up. And even
earlier in the day, he tweeted out, today is a
(03:14):
great day to buy, and nobody really knew what he
was talking about. And then three or four hours later
he suspended the tariffs for ninety days on everything except
for China. The tariffs in China are still in place.
But no, this was this was an explicit attempt to
make the stock market recover. It was also hurting him
(03:37):
in the polls. You know he was it was it
was it was becoming unpopular people who had seen their
four oh one k's go down.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
So yeah, now you know, Donald Trump is a different
sort of president. And I have looked at this and
I'm not an expert, a Wall Street expert like you are.
I don't have the experience you have, but I've looked
at this as an incredible gam by the Trump administration
and President Trump himself, meaning if this is successful, if
(04:06):
he accomplishes what he has set out to accomplish. He
becomes a transformational president and is then linked to people
like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt obviously for dealing
successfully with the depression of World War Two, et cetera,
Reagan taking down the Communist empire. And if he if
it doesn't work, he's he's now relegated to the dustbin
(04:31):
of history, if you will, with Herbert Hoover, are you
surprised that he is putting so many chips on this
particular issue this early in his administration.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Yeah, A whole wants to talk about here. So, I mean,
Trump is a protectionist. He has been his whole life.
He's been talking about tariffs for decades. He believes that
he can bring manufacturing jobs back. Manufacturing jobs, by the way,
have been going down for one hundred years, even you know,
before during and after NAFTA another pre trade agreements. So
(05:09):
you know a lot of these jobs are gone forever
because of automation and stuff. So I don't really think
we can bring manufacturing jobs back. But that's not really
the point of what's going on. I don't think Trump
ever really intended to put tariffs on every country in
the world. I think this was a little bit of
game theory on his part. I think his intent all
(05:32):
along was to put tariffs on China. And it's funny
that you mentioned Reagan because you know, like you said,
Reagan defeated the Soviet Union and how did he do it?
Because he got into an arms race of defense spending
and basically ran up deficits to seven percent of GDP
and outspent the Soviets and bankrupted the Soviet Union, and
(05:56):
then the Berlin wallf fell, and he's got an airport
named after So I think I think Trump is trying
to do the same thing with China. China is more
than an adversary. It's a communist country with one point
four billion people. They really truly are our enemies. Shi
(06:17):
Jingping is a very dangerous person. I think if he
had the ability to do so, he would try to
rule the entire planet. China is dangerous. So what I think,
what I think Trump is trying to do is to
drive the Chinese economy so far into recession or depression
that they don't have the ability to spend on their military,
(06:41):
and they become so weakened that they actually collapse. I
think that ultimately is the goal.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, the other problem there in terms of China is
I've read that China is planning to move on Taiwan.
They obviously have had military exercises over there, but to
move on Taiwan, that little island off the coast of
China sometime in twenty twenty six. The window that I've
(07:08):
read is twenty twenty six to twenty twenty eight, which
is a very dangerous period of time. And Taiwan, as
I understand it, is the computer chip manufacturing capital of
the world, which would be devastating if they were able
to successfully take Taiwan. How is that a factor?
Speaker 3 (07:29):
For sure? It's a factor. I mean, look, I think
if that was Chinas and ten I think they miscalculated
because I think if they attacked Taiwan when Biden was president,
there probably would have been no resistance whatsoever. If he
attacks them while Trump is president, we're going to get
into a hot war and they're going to lose. Sixty
percent of the world's semiconductors come from Taiwan, and we've
(07:52):
known this for a while. This was the whole point
of the Chips Act that Biden signed. The Chips Act
is designed to build semiconductor equipment factories in the US
to reduce our reliance on Taiwan. The bill is really
a complete disaster. It gives a lot of money to Intel,
which is a failing company. There's all kinds of DEI
(08:15):
stuff in it, so it hasn't reduced our dependence on
Taiwan at all.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
There was a piece of legislation that I keep going
back to that passed in nineteen ninety six. Bill Clinton
was President of newking which was Speaker of the House,
and there it was bipartisan and it basically moved a
lot of our pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I think a good
portion of chip manufacturing, to whatever extent ship manufacturing was
(08:43):
in vogue at that time out of places like Puerto Rico,
where we had easy access and no supply line problems
over to Asia. How is it that our members of
Congress can vote for pieces of legislation like that which
clearly are not in the long term interest of the
(09:04):
United States.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
Well, I think, you know, I think we should treat
the leaders in nineteen ninety six a little more kindly.
You know, China in nineteen ninety six was a very
different country than it was today. It was emerging from communism,
it was experimenting with capitalism. It was relatively free. It
(09:26):
was after Tenement Square, So you know, China was an
emerging economy, and you know, labor costs hadn't gone up
very much at all. In fact, labor costs were very low.
So people said, look like, you know, we can we
can manufacture much much cheaper in China, and you know,
have this stuff for a lot cheaper. And you know
(09:47):
it made sense at the time, but you know, China
has changed a lot, you know, even since two thousand
and eight.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
I agree with you. My guest is Jared Dillion. He
is a He has a resume that a lot of
people would be very envious of. He is a graduate
of the US Coast Guard Academy with a BS and
math and computer science, master's in Business administration from the
(10:14):
University of San Francisco, and he's been involved in finance.
Is a he's a renaissance man in many respects. He's
a writer, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. And we're picking
his brain tonight about what has happened today. I mean,
in a period of a matter of two hours, we
(10:36):
went from a nation I guess on the brink of
plunging into a bear market and have come back now.
I don't know what the future holds. No one is
going to be able to predict that, But I'm really
interested in Jared's analysis as to where we may go
from here. I suspect, at a minimum, Jared, turbulence is
(11:02):
going to ease. That's gonna be my question when we
come back after this break, how much more turbulence. This
was a very turbulent month or so, going back even
to the beginning of March. Within the markets, it was
not a good month in March. It sounded like a
horrible month in April. Is this the end of it?
Or are or it's going to come back, you know,
(11:24):
ninety days or maybe seventy five days from now. If
you'd like to join the conversation and talk to someone
who knows this stuff cold six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty,
we'll be right back on night Side.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WA Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Jared, I know no one can predict the future here,
and I'm even looking at futures tomorrow. The all the futures, well,
nastac's off quite a bit. S and P futures are off.
That was up a little bit, but it looks like
it's going to be a day tomorrow. Do you think
we're through the worst of the turbulence or could this
snap back at us in the next uh, stay within
(12:07):
the next month.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I think we're through the worst of it. I think
the lows are in. But typically the way the stock
market behaves is it's it's very uncommon to have what
you call a v bottom where stocks crash and then
they rebound and they just go straight up. That's pretty rare.
Usually what you have is a retest of the lows,
(12:29):
or multiple retests. So I do think that you know,
we were up eight or nine percent today. I think
probably the next two or three days it's going to
be a little choppy. We could give back half of that.
But really the market is behaving a lot like it
was actually after nine to eleven. You had in both cases,
(12:52):
you had this exogenous shock in one case the terrorist attacks,
in the other case the tariffs, and the market went
down down, you know, twelve to fifteen percent, rebounded very
quickly and almost got up to the highs and then
consolidated for a period of three to six months, and
then you know, you had a lot more downside in
(13:13):
two thousand and two. You had a big bear market
in two thousand and two. So that's kind of what
I That's kind of how I think this is going
to play out. If you ask me tomorrow, I could
have a completely different opinion. But that's where I am
right now.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
I can understand that how much of the factor. If
you compare this to two thousand and one, we as
a nation rallied. It was probably the most solidified we
were as a nation in my memory, well, at least
in the last forty years. We're not in that situation
(13:48):
right now. We have some people who are just committed
to Donald Trump no matter what. They would have watched
the market go down as Lois had had to go
and they would have stuck with Donald Trump. Not everyone.
And then there are folks on the other side of
the equation who look at this and say, this just
proves this guy is way in over his head. Does
the fact that we're so split politically make a really
(14:12):
solid economic recovery less likely or is that irrelevant to
the marketplace.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
I think it's kind of irrelevant. I mean, basically what
team Trump is trying to do. In particular, Scott Besson.
Scott Bessen is probably the most qualified Treasury Secretary ever
to hold the seat. He was chief investment officer at Soros.
He probably is one of the top five currency and
(14:42):
bond traders in the world. He's brilliant. He's absolutely brilliant.
And you know what you heard him say over the
last couple of months was that the economy needed a detox. Okay,
So during Biden, basically Biden front loaded all the pleasure.
You know, we were coming out of the pandemic. He
(15:05):
was doing stimulus and child childcare credits and free money,
and we had zero percent interest rates, and we frontloaded
all the pleasure. And what Besent is trying to do
is to frontload all the pain, right, And what he
wants to do is almost engineer recession in the beginning
(15:28):
of Trump's terms, so that either at the midterms or
in twenty twenty eight, we're coming out of the recession
and we're booming by the time the election comes around.
So this is very calculated, you know, there it is,
it is. It is a bit machi Abelian but I
truly believe that if we are going to have a downturn,
(15:50):
they want to have it now and not in twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Similar to what Reagan did in eighty one and eighty two.
Now he inherited a different economy than Trump inherited. It's
kind of the idea of if you eat your peas
and carrots, you can have dessert.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
Yeah, it's very similar. I mean, it was a little
different with Reagan because that was more driven by the FED.
That was driven by monetary policy. You know, Jimmy Carter
replaced Arthur Burns with g. William Miller, and he replaced
William Miller with Paul Volker. Volker ripped rates all the
way to fourteen percent. And we had a very severe
(16:32):
recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term. I mean
it was incredibly severe. GDP was down six percent. But
by nineteen eighty three eighty four, things were doing much better.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
This morning in America, remember, yep, that was that was
That was the slogan. My guest, and as you can tell,
he's somebody who has a lot of backgrounded this, Jared Dillion.
We were talking about the decision today a reverse hustle,
by the way, a rare reversal by President Trump. As
of yesterday, he was saying, and his spokespeople were saying,
(17:07):
no delays on the tariffs. The tariffs have been delayed
now for ninety days except for China. I'm also told
earlier tonight that the tariffs on automobiles are still in place.
That was told to me by someone earlier tonight from
the automotive industry. That kind of surprised me. Is that
accurate what I was told?
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Actually, I can't. I can't confirm. Goody, I did not
hear that, so.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Okay, fair enough. Yeah, it was someone earlier this evening.
We were talking. We were talking about the whole is
used from US World and news report talking about the
impact of tariffs on cars, and he was saying that
they're going to be in place, and we're not removed today.
But we'll leave that alone. The only lines that are open, folks,
(17:54):
six ten thirty. Everything else is full up. We will
get to phone callers, assuming Jared, you'll be willing to
stay with us and take some calls from some listeners.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Yeah, absolutely sounds great.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Jared Dillion. We'll be able to give some information as
to how you can follow Jared and get in touch
with him if you're interested. He's somebody who is out there.
I know that you have several publications that people might
want to read, including books and websites, and we'll get
to all of that. And you're the editor of something
(18:28):
called The Daily Dirt NAP, a daily market newsletter for
investment professionals, continuously published since two thousand and eight. That
sounds like a very interesting piece of information on a
daily basis. We'll be back with my guest Jared Dillion,
and your phone calls right after this break up night
(18:49):
Side with Dan Ray.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
On Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
My guest is Jared Dillion. An amazing resume, a wide
variety of interests and professional activity. Wall Street, outside on
Wall Street, outside of Wall Street. Graduate of the US
Coast Guard Academy, BS and Math and Computer Sciences, from
(19:20):
the University of San Francisco, Masters in Business Administration, Concentration
and Finance, where he earned an NBA Award for the
highest Academic average average. And from the Savannah College of
Art and Design in twenty thirty three with a Master
of Fine Arts and Writing. That's quite a resume, folks,
Jared Dillion is our guest. Your phone calls are welcome,
(19:40):
and I'm looking more for questions. Okay, let me go
to George in Bridgewater. George, welcome you first this hour
one Night Side with Jared Dillion. Go ahead, George.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Oh thanks, thank you very much. Sain Jared, Jared, I
have a couple of questions for you, you know. And
the more I play in the sock market a little
so I signed into Yahoo Finance for the sports and
see how much sucks to do it. But I heard
today that the ten year yield was up fourteenth points
(20:12):
and the thirty year yield was up eight points, and
they were talking about the use the term this could
be a blow up in the capital market.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Did we lose George there, Yes, I think so.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
But I kind of know where he's going and I
can kind of comment on that.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, Suregard, Yeah, we did lose. A matter of fact,
we lost a couple of callers. So well, I hope
we haven't got a problem with our phones coming back
at us here. So let's uh, let's keep our fingers crossed.
If you're on the line and you dropped off, all
callback folks will get you on. We have had occasionally
some technical difficulties here. So George, you stay there, we'll
(20:56):
try to get an answer for you. Go right ahead, George,
go right ahead, Jared, I'm.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Sorry, yeah. So what's what? There's some really weird stuff
has been happening in the markets. You know, for the
most part, bonds are inversely correlated with stocks, so when
stocks go down, bonds go up and interest rates go down.
So what George was talking about is interest rates have
(21:19):
gone up a lot in the last couple of days,
which makes no sense at all. You would not expect
interest rates to go up while the stock market is crashing.
That never happens. So what people are speculating, and I
actually agree with this. You know, China is the owner
of eight hundred billion dollars in treasury bonds, and you know,
(21:42):
we implement one hundred and twenty percent tariffs on China exclusively,
and China says, well, forget you. We are going to
start selling your treasury bonds. We're going to sell fifty
billion and drive interest rates up, which is the exact
opposite of what Scott Beston is trying to do best,
trying to lower interest rates.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
That is what China and Japan were doing last night.
If I'm not mistaken, they were, they were they were
dumping treasury bonds.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
Yeah, I mean we don't know for sure, Like it's
I mean, you can't you can't tell, but I mean
the timing is so suspicious, like it really it almost
has to be China that was doing it.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
So so explain to the audience, if you would, Jared
by doing that, and China is an effect retaliating in
a different way, what are they trying to accomplish by
dumping treasury bonds?
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Well, I mean, really, what they're trying to do is
cause a recession or exacerbator recession. You know, if interest
rates go up, then mortgage rates go up, and car
loan rates go up, and every interest rate in the
country goes up, the cost of borrowing goes up, and
which tightens tightens the economy and makes it difficult for
(23:00):
consumers to borrow money. And that's bad, you know, that's
that's you know, And China has you know, and if
they sold fifty billion, you know, they still have another
seven hundred and fifty billion they can continue to sell bonds.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
So what what can chairm and Powell do to offset
that or would he have to stand aside and say
that is a part of a political action, that is
the chairman of the FED an interesting to get involved in.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
There's really there's nothing that the FED can do about
this there, Yeah, there's nothing that they can do. The
only thing I will say is is that you're seeing
a pretty big recovery in the bond market. Overnight. Thirty
year bond yields actually got to five percent. And you know,
(23:49):
when yields get high enough, they start looking attractive to
people and you'll see buyers come in. Uh. And that's
actually what you're seeing tonight.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
You know.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
I'm sitting here at my desk and I have a
couple of computer screens with futures all over them, and
I'm sitting here looking at bond futures and they're up
one in twelve thirty seconds over nine, which is a
really big move. So percent right, yeah, yeah, okay, all.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Right, George is back. George. I know we lost you there.
I apologize for that. Did you hear most of what
Jared had to say?
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Yeah? I sure did, And that was I said, I
have two questions, and it's just China and Japan roll
in US debt.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
You know, I know that China is secretly selling US debt.
Japan sells sixty two billion in the third quarter of
twenty twenty twenty four. If these countries boy caught US
deaths TOWUS the US Treasury treasury to offer higher yields,
wouldn't it, Jarret?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Yeah? So what what's what's going to happen is is that,
you know, the prevailing market interest rate is going to
go up. We actually have a thirty year bond auction tomorrow.
We're going to auction off about thirty billion and thirty
year bonds which are going to be at a higher
interest rate than if China hadn't done that. So what
they've effectively done is raise borrowing costs for the US
(25:16):
government and interest expense.
Speaker 4 (25:20):
Oh okay, yeah that worries me, especially John. I'm not
sure about your pen, but I mean, I really got
a lot. You've been on the Dan Ray shield tonight.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Thank you very much, Yre, Thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Thanks Jeorge, you Dan appreciate you.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Come.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
Let's go to Frank and Burlington. Frank you next on nights.
I grow it ahead.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
Hey, how you doing, guys.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
We're doing great? Say ahead to Jared Dillion and what's
your question of comment?
Speaker 4 (25:47):
Hi?
Speaker 5 (25:47):
So my question is, so stocks we're trading at nineteen
times forward earnings at the low when it was at
thirty six to three on the Dow, and it was
trading sixteen point eight forward earnings at the high in
twenty nineteen. Stocks are wildly overvalued as it is, they
were looking for a reason to pull back. I don't
think Donald Trump should be making policy based on what
(26:09):
the stock market is doing. So my question is what
is the purpose? I disagree with a lot of what
he's doing, but I'd rather him follow through on it
than basically go halfway and then pull back and then
go back. It's the lack of clarity that's roiling markets
and that's roiling the economy. So my question is is
he looking to make tariffs a source of primary revenue
(26:31):
and bring income taxes down and basically collect revenue off
of tariffs, or is he looking to bring manufacturing back
or both. Whether that works or not is not really
relevant to my question. I'm just trying to figure out
what he's doing and what the markets. I mean, Marcus
go off, Marcus go down. If you don't like it,
(26:52):
don't invest but you shouldn't be making policy based on
the markets. Fifty six percent of what companies have raised
since twenty six have gone to buybacks, five has gone
to R and D, so the markets are wildly inflated.
I don't worry about that. I just want to know
what's the purpose of what he's doing.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Okay. One of the purpose that I think some people
are speculating is that he with the tariffs, he's hoping
to bring the national debt down from thirty seven trillion dollars.
But that's a whole bunch of questions there for you, Jared,
so blen't you untangle that with Those are great.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Questions, Yeah, for sure. So first of all, you know
Trump intervening in the markets today. Yes, stocks are still overvalued,
and yes nobody should feel sorry for hedge fund managers
who are losing money. But you know, the market was
down about twenty percent. If it had gone down another
(27:48):
ten percent, if it was down about thirty percent, then
you really have financial stability risks.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
You know.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
That's when things start to blow up. That's when banks fail,
that's when asset managers fail, that's when liquidity DIDs. So
even though stocks are overvalued. I mean, we really have
an interest in keeping financial market stability. So I think
that was you know, I think Bessett was in his
ear and said, look like it's getting pretty ugly out there,
(28:16):
like we have to do something or it's going to
get worse.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
Go ahead, Frank oh so so yeah, I mean the
financial liquidity in terms of stability of the overall financial
sector being at risk. I don't think that's really what
it was. I think it was more just reacting to
the four oh one ks, and I think he stated that, oh,
people were getting a little scared. I mean, there's other
ways to offset what you were talking about, But I mean,
(28:45):
I don't know if we were at that point. I
don't think this is a two thousand and eight where
fundamentally what's happening on Main Street drove what's happening on
Wall Street. I don't think it works in the verse necessarily.
So I think this was more just because of people's
four oh one kids, which if you're not retiring in
the next five ten years, I don't think you should
really worry about it anyway, and if you are, you
(29:05):
should really be rebalanced into a safer, more stable funds.
So I don't think we were at that point. I
think the FED has a lot of tools they don't
want to deploy, and I don't think they should at
this point. I think they should just lay back and
see how things go. But I think the FED is
there if we need them if things get really bad.
But I just think he should follow through on his
policies and basically see it through. I don't think he
(29:28):
should react based on markets, which I don't know if
we're doing. I don't really think he was based on
financial stability.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Yeah. I don't know if either of you heard the
comments the President made this afternoon, but at some point,
and I don't know if either of you picked up
on this, but he almost sort of like went into
sort of a golf analogy, and he said a lot
of people were getting a little yippie, and the yips
(29:53):
is a golf term for yeah, for folks who are
a little older and maybe they're they're hunting, they get
a little nervous and putting and all of that. And
I don't know did either of you pick that up.
It was like it was somehow it was like his
mind was on golf as opposed.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
To Chuck Chuck novel Yankees, different.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Different thing. He could couldn't go from second base. Yeah,
but the Yips were associated with call but yeah, that's it. Yeah,
that's another good example too. And Knoblock wasn't the only
one there's been. There's been a few pictures. Who have
they had what was called Steve blast disease, you know,
couldn't couldn't get the ball over the plate a picture
for the Pirates many years ago. Hey, Frank, great questions.
(30:37):
I'm so impressed by my calls, as I often am.
Thanks Frank. We'll see what happens. Where do you think
it's going to end up from? Thank you, Frank?
Speaker 5 (30:46):
Well, so, I think see so. I think that it
depends on who's who he's listening to. If he's listening
to Peter Navarro, who's a die hard. Uh, basically, I'm
not a free trader. Free trade has ruined everything. Naw
so was the worst thing ever. And I think that
this is really just a pause. And I don't think
I don't think he can negotiate seventy five different deals
(31:09):
with seventy five different countries. I mean, that's violating most
Favored Nation status anyway, in terms of the wto but
I mean, we're pretty much passed international law at this point.
But I mean, I think he's gonna follow through. I
think he's gonna follow through, and I think he's gonna
I think he's trying to bring manufacturing back. I think
he's trying to reorder the economy. Whether that's possible or
not is another story. And I think he's trying to
(31:30):
make it a source of revenue. So I think he's
gonna see it through. I don't think he's gonna backtrack completely.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
All right, Thank you, Frank, big big step back today,
though nonetheless kind of surprised me. Thanks Frank, appreciate it.
I guess is Jared Dillion. He is talking about the
decision by the president today to delay the imposition of
the terrorists by ninety days. Obviously was good for the market.
The market today had a huge jump. If you'd like
(31:58):
to comment or ask a question of a gentleman who
has knows this stuff inside and out. Six one seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty.
We may have had a little bit of a yips
in our phone system here, Rob. I think so anybody
who was on and got dropped off feel free to
jump on back. We're gonna hold Jared in just until
eleven o'clock and let him enjoy the rest of his evening. Uh.
(32:21):
I am really appreciative of the time he spent and
the explanations that he has provided. This has been a
really good hour. We'll be and we'll continue to be
right after this break.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's
news radio.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
My guest is Jared Dillion, writer, traded musician, entrepreneur, and educator.
So he said, a true renaissance man. Real quickly Jared
with the response. Today it was a huge day in
the market. I think it. It was reported that the
Nasdaq had its biggest increase in twenty five years. I mean,
it's an amazing uh turnaround. Whether it's a blip or
(33:02):
something more in the direction, I'm assuming that the rest
of this week has to be quieter than today. I
would hope. Do you see any way that the market
between now and the weekend is going to continue this?
I don't think it continued the pace going up or
reverse its up. There has to be a moment where
(33:23):
everybody takes a breath through. Am I reading it wrongly?
Speaker 4 (33:26):
No.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
So have you heard of the VIX, the volatility index?
Speaker 2 (33:30):
Yes, okay, pretty much. Ye.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
So basically, what the VIX is, it's a it's a
measure of option prices and it's a measure of volatility
in the market. The VIX was above fifty this morning. Yeah, yeah,
it was close to sixty, and now I think it's
down about thirty or high twenties or something like that.
So what the VIX is telling you is that traders
(33:55):
are anticipating less volatility. The vics absolutely got smashed today.
You know, option prices came way down. I actually was
trading that myself. So yeah, it's I think I think
the worst is behind us. It's still going to be
valdol Uh. It's it's going to be nothing like you know,
(34:16):
the quiet times that we experienced in twenty twenty four.
But it'll be quieter now.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
How can folks follow you again? You're the editor of
the Daily Dirt napp. Is this something that is put
out and is available or is this all subscription based?
I know that you have some some recent books out.
I suspect a lot of people would like to at
least keep in touch with you, and well, we will
keep in touch with you. Is the Daily Dirt NP
(34:45):
available or is that? Is that subscriber based?
Speaker 3 (34:48):
It's subscriber based. So I have a number of publications
at a website called Jareddillionmoney dot com. Okay, So at
Jaredillion Money dot com there is the Daily Dirt and app.
There's a few other newsletters. We actually have educational courses.
We have a Bond masterclass, which teaches you about how
(35:09):
bonds work. We literally just came out with an options
masterclass last week. So lots of stuff at jareddillionmoney dot com.
You should check it out.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Okay, So Jared J A R. E. D. Dillion D
I L L I A N Money dot com. And
some of it is subscription, but some of it is
available for whoever wants to go on there. Uh. And
I gotta tell you that my audience has some pretty
(35:42):
good questions. We've we've been dealing with this now for
five nights in a row, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and tonight.
Very different tone tonight for certain, much more relaxed and positive.
I mean last night it was getting really tough there.
Quick final question for me, as you look at the
(36:04):
people that President Trump has surrounded himself with in terms
of the financial team, the economy team. Give me your
analysis of Peter Navarro. I am not impressed. And I
know that Navarro is very loyal. Was one of these
guys that went to jail, smart guy, grew up in
this area. Is he at this point you think going
(36:28):
to be pushed aside? He's the trade advisor.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Right, Yeah, So Navarrow I think is going to lose
influence over time. Scott Bessen is is, uh, you know,
orders of magnitude smarter than Nabarrow. So I think I
think Navarrow isn't gonna last six months.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
But you know, Navarro was.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
A Democrat for many years. He ran for Congress out
in San Diego back in the early nineties under a
no growth platform. He was against economic growth, and he
hasn't fundamentally changed over the years. Like he's not a capitalist,
he's not a free market guy. He has he has
(37:11):
a poisonous influence on the president. I don't like him
at all. So, you know, I really this shift towards
you know, getting rid of tariffs on other countries except
for China. Bessen is the architect of that. And you know,
I think we're not going to hear much from to
borrow in the future.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
And then my last question is it was there was
a joke earlier this week that I guess they put
a tariff on a couple of uninhabited islands in the
South Pacific. How does something like that happen at the
White House? I mean that that that sort of says
to me amateur.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
Alan actually believe it or not? I heard about that.
That's not unreasonable. So one of the reasons they did that,
and I'm sure you heard this, is so they didn't
they didn't want countries using those islands as a loophole
to get around the tariffs. Right, So you might think
of it as kind of nonsensical or overkill, but there
(38:06):
actually was a purpose behind it.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
So yeah, all right, well that I've never heard that
that analysis, but it makes it makes a point. I
assume there's a lot of uninhabited islands in the world.
I really enjoyed this hour, Jared, Thank you so much,
and I want to thank the gentleman who put you
and me in contact today, Chris Berry. It was it
was a really good hour, and you make this conversation fun.
(38:31):
Uh maybe fun. I should have had you on one
of the one of the bad nights. But thank you
so much. I'd love to keep in touch again. Jared
Dillion J A R. E. D. Dillion d I L
L I A N Money dot Com. Thanks again. I
hope to have you back.
Speaker 3 (38:46):
Thanks Jared, thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
You bet you all right? When we come back, we're
going to get your reaction last night, it was kind
of a funeral parler. Uh, well tonight. You know, we're
not out of the woods yet here, but I think
we're going. We went in the right direction today. Let's
talk about it. Coming back right after the eleven o'clock
news on Nightside, I'll open the lines up. It's just
(39:09):
you and me between now and midnight. Fill them up.
Six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty or six
one seven, nine three one ten thirty
It's night with Dan Ray. I'm going easy Boston video.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Tough night for Boston sports teams. Today, the stock market
had a great day after four days of a huge drop.
Stock market snapped back today based upon the decision by
the President to authorize a ninety day pause in his
reciprocal tariff plan. The all of the Wall Street, the
(00:33):
the S and P five hundred up nine point five
percent today, the Dow up seven point nine percent, the
NASDA C up twelve point one percent. It has not
made up the losses of the last week that started
with the President's announcement last Wednesday afternoon. So with us
to try to make some sense of this, as Jared Dillion,
(00:57):
Jared is someone who knows this area much better than
probably any guest I've had recently. So I'm delighted that
Jared has has us joined us tonight. He is a
graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy in nineteen ninety
six BS in mathematics and computer science from the University
(01:18):
of San Francisco. In two thousand and one, as a
master's in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance. He earned an
NBA Award for Highest Academic Average from the Savannah College
of Art and Design in twenty twenty three with a
Master of Fine Arts and Writing A He's accomplished in
many ways. He's an author. His books include Street Freak,
(01:40):
All the Evil of This World, A Passover One, No Worries,
and Night Moves. He also is a Progressive House DJ
and speaks frequently of mental health issues at financial Institution.
Has spent time on Wall Street himself, and has appeared
on Well Everything, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, tv BNN, New
(02:04):
York Times, LA Times Business Insiders. So, Jared Dillion, thank
you very much for joining us tonight. We're we're looking
forward to try to figure out what happened today. Did
it all come down to the decision by the President
to pause the implication, the implication, the implementation, I should say,
(02:26):
these tariffs for ninety days.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having me.
It's great to be talking to you. Yeah. I think
the Trump team was getting a little bit concerned about
the impact on the stock market, and there were some comments,
one in particular by Jamie Diamond, who's the CEO of
JP Morgan. Jamie Diamond said that the tariffs would cause
(02:52):
a recession and they would cause corporate defaults, they would
cause bankruptcies, and Jamie Diamond is is some what you
want to listen to. And I think I think the
combination of these things led to Trump saying something that
would explicitly make the stock market go up. And even
earlier in the day, he tweeted out, today is a
(03:14):
great day to buy, and nobody really knew what he
was talking about. And then three or four hours later
he suspended the tariffs for ninety days on everything except
for China. The tariffs in China are still in place.
But no, this was this was an explicit attempt to
make the stock market recover. It was also hurting him
(03:37):
in the polls. You know he was it was it
was it was becoming unpopular people who had seen their
four oh one k's go down.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
So yeah, now you know, Donald Trump is a different
sort of president. And I have looked at this and
I'm not an expert, a Wall Street expert like you are.
I don't have the experience you have, but I've looked
at this as an incredible gam by the Trump administration
and President Trump himself, meaning if this is successful, if
(04:06):
he accomplishes what he has set out to accomplish. He
becomes a transformational president and is then linked to people
like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt obviously for dealing
successfully with the depression of World War Two, et cetera,
Reagan taking down the Communist empire. And if he if
it doesn't work, he's he's now relegated to the dustbin
(04:31):
of history, if you will, with Herbert Hoover, are you
surprised that he is putting so many chips on this
particular issue this early in his administration.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Yeah, A whole wants to talk about here. So, I mean,
Trump is a protectionist. He has been his whole life.
He's been talking about tariffs for decades. He believes that
he can bring manufacturing jobs back. Manufacturing jobs, by the way,
have been going down for one hundred years, even you know,
before during and after NAFTA another pre trade agreements. So
(05:09):
you know a lot of these jobs are gone forever
because of automation and stuff. So I don't really think
we can bring manufacturing jobs back. But that's not really
the point of what's going on. I don't think Trump
ever really intended to put tariffs on every country in
the world. I think this was a little bit of
game theory on his part. I think his intent all
(05:32):
along was to put tariffs on China. And it's funny
that you mentioned Reagan because you know, like you said,
Reagan defeated the Soviet Union and how did he do it?
Because he got into an arms race of defense spending
and basically ran up deficits to seven percent of GDP
and outspent the Soviets and bankrupted the Soviet Union, and
(05:56):
then the Berlin wallf fell, and he's got an airport
named after So I think I think Trump is trying
to do the same thing with China. China is more
than an adversary. It's a communist country with one point
four billion people. They really truly are our enemies. Shi
(06:17):
Jingping is a very dangerous person. I think if he
had the ability to do so, he would try to
rule the entire planet. China is dangerous. So what I think,
what I think Trump is trying to do is to
drive the Chinese economy so far into recession or depression
that they don't have the ability to spend on their military,
(06:41):
and they become so weakened that they actually collapse. I
think that ultimately is the goal.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, the other problem there in terms of China is
I've read that China is planning to move on Taiwan.
They obviously have had military exercises over there, but to
move on Taiwan, that little island off the coast of
China sometime in twenty twenty six. The window that I've
(07:08):
read is twenty twenty six to twenty twenty eight, which
is a very dangerous period of time. And Taiwan, as
I understand it, is the computer chip manufacturing capital of
the world, which would be devastating if they were able
to successfully take Taiwan. How is that a factor?
Speaker 3 (07:29):
For sure? It's a factor. I mean, look, I think
if that was Chinas and ten I think they miscalculated
because I think if they attacked Taiwan when Biden was president,
there probably would have been no resistance whatsoever. If he
attacks them while Trump is president, we're going to get
into a hot war and they're going to lose. Sixty
percent of the world's semiconductors come from Taiwan, and we've
(07:52):
known this for a while. This was the whole point
of the Chips Act that Biden signed. The Chips Act
is designed to build semiconductor equipment factories in the US
to reduce our reliance on Taiwan. The bill is really
a complete disaster. It gives a lot of money to Intel,
which is a failing company. There's all kinds of DEI
(08:15):
stuff in it, so it hasn't reduced our dependence on
Taiwan at all.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
There was a piece of legislation that I keep going
back to that passed in nineteen ninety six. Bill Clinton
was President of newking which was Speaker of the House,
and there it was bipartisan and it basically moved a
lot of our pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I think a good
portion of chip manufacturing, to whatever extent ship manufacturing was
(08:43):
in vogue at that time out of places like Puerto Rico,
where we had easy access and no supply line problems
over to Asia. How is it that our members of
Congress can vote for pieces of legislation like that which
clearly are not in the long term interest of the
(09:04):
United States.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
Well, I think, you know, I think we should treat
the leaders in nineteen ninety six a little more kindly.
You know, China in nineteen ninety six was a very
different country than it was today. It was emerging from communism,
it was experimenting with capitalism. It was relatively free. It
(09:26):
was after Tenement Square, So you know, China was an
emerging economy, and you know, labor costs hadn't gone up
very much at all. In fact, labor costs were very low.
So people said, look like, you know, we can we
can manufacture much much cheaper in China, and you know,
have this stuff for a lot cheaper. And you know
(09:47):
it made sense at the time, but you know, China
has changed a lot, you know, even since two thousand
and eight.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
I agree with you. My guest is Jared Dillion. He
is a He has a resume that a lot of
people would be very envious of. He is a graduate
of the US Coast Guard Academy with a BS and
math and computer science, master's in Business administration from the
(10:14):
University of San Francisco, and he's been involved in finance.
Is a he's a renaissance man in many respects. He's
a writer, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. And we're picking
his brain tonight about what has happened today. I mean,
in a period of a matter of two hours, we
(10:36):
went from a nation I guess on the brink of
plunging into a bear market and have come back now.
I don't know what the future holds. No one is
going to be able to predict that, But I'm really
interested in Jared's analysis as to where we may go
from here. I suspect, at a minimum, Jared, turbulence is
(11:02):
going to ease. That's gonna be my question when we
come back after this break, how much more turbulence. This
was a very turbulent month or so, going back even
to the beginning of March. Within the markets, it was
not a good month in March. It sounded like a
horrible month in April. Is this the end of it?
Or are or it's going to come back, you know,
(11:24):
ninety days or maybe seventy five days from now. If
you'd like to join the conversation and talk to someone
who knows this stuff cold six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty,
we'll be right back on night Side.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WA Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Jared, I know no one can predict the future here,
and I'm even looking at futures tomorrow. The all the futures, well,
nastac's off quite a bit. S and P futures are off.
That was up a little bit, but it looks like
it's going to be a day tomorrow. Do you think
we're through the worst of the turbulence or could this
snap back at us in the next uh, stay within
(12:07):
the next month.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I think we're through the worst of it. I think
the lows are in. But typically the way the stock
market behaves is it's it's very uncommon to have what
you call a v bottom where stocks crash and then
they rebound and they just go straight up. That's pretty rare.
Usually what you have is a retest of the lows,
(12:29):
or multiple retests. So I do think that you know,
we were up eight or nine percent today. I think
probably the next two or three days it's going to
be a little choppy. We could give back half of that.
But really the market is behaving a lot like it
was actually after nine to eleven. You had in both cases,
(12:52):
you had this exogenous shock in one case the terrorist attacks,
in the other case the tariffs, and the market went
down down, you know, twelve to fifteen percent, rebounded very
quickly and almost got up to the highs and then
consolidated for a period of three to six months, and
then you know, you had a lot more downside in
(13:13):
two thousand and two. You had a big bear market
in two thousand and two. So that's kind of what
I That's kind of how I think this is going
to play out. If you ask me tomorrow, I could
have a completely different opinion. But that's where I am
right now.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
I can understand that how much of the factor. If
you compare this to two thousand and one, we as
a nation rallied. It was probably the most solidified we
were as a nation in my memory, well, at least
in the last forty years. We're not in that situation
(13:48):
right now. We have some people who are just committed
to Donald Trump no matter what. They would have watched
the market go down as Lois had had to go
and they would have stuck with Donald Trump. Not everyone.
And then there are folks on the other side of
the equation who look at this and say, this just
proves this guy is way in over his head. Does
the fact that we're so split politically make a really
(14:12):
solid economic recovery less likely or is that irrelevant to
the marketplace.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
I think it's kind of irrelevant. I mean, basically what
team Trump is trying to do. In particular, Scott Besson.
Scott Bessen is probably the most qualified Treasury Secretary ever
to hold the seat. He was chief investment officer at Soros.
He probably is one of the top five currency and
(14:42):
bond traders in the world. He's brilliant. He's absolutely brilliant.
And you know what you heard him say over the
last couple of months was that the economy needed a detox. Okay,
So during Biden, basically Biden front loaded all the pleasure.
You know, we were coming out of the pandemic. He
(15:05):
was doing stimulus and child childcare credits and free money,
and we had zero percent interest rates, and we frontloaded
all the pleasure. And what Besent is trying to do
is to frontload all the pain, right, And what he
wants to do is almost engineer recession in the beginning
(15:28):
of Trump's terms, so that either at the midterms or
in twenty twenty eight, we're coming out of the recession
and we're booming by the time the election comes around.
So this is very calculated, you know, there it is,
it is. It is a bit machi Abelian but I
truly believe that if we are going to have a downturn,
(15:50):
they want to have it now and not in twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Similar to what Reagan did in eighty one and eighty two.
Now he inherited a different economy than Trump inherited. It's
kind of the idea of if you eat your peas
and carrots, you can have dessert.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
Yeah, it's very similar. I mean, it was a little
different with Reagan because that was more driven by the FED.
That was driven by monetary policy. You know, Jimmy Carter
replaced Arthur Burns with g. William Miller, and he replaced
William Miller with Paul Volker. Volker ripped rates all the
way to fourteen percent. And we had a very severe
(16:32):
recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term. I mean
it was incredibly severe. GDP was down six percent. But
by nineteen eighty three eighty four, things were doing much better.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
This morning in America, remember, yep, that was that was
That was the slogan. My guest, and as you can tell,
he's somebody who has a lot of backgrounded this, Jared Dillion.
We were talking about the decision today a reverse hustle,
by the way, a rare reversal by President Trump. As
of yesterday, he was saying, and his spokespeople were saying,
(17:07):
no delays on the tariffs. The tariffs have been delayed
now for ninety days except for China. I'm also told
earlier tonight that the tariffs on automobiles are still in place.
That was told to me by someone earlier tonight from
the automotive industry. That kind of surprised me. Is that
accurate what I was told?
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Actually, I can't. I can't confirm. Goody, I did not
hear that, so.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Okay, fair enough. Yeah, it was someone earlier this evening.
We were talking. We were talking about the whole is
used from US World and news report talking about the
impact of tariffs on cars, and he was saying that
they're going to be in place, and we're not removed today.
But we'll leave that alone. The only lines that are open, folks,
(17:54):
six ten thirty. Everything else is full up. We will
get to phone callers, assuming Jared, you'll be willing to
stay with us and take some calls from some listeners.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Yeah, absolutely sounds great.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Jared Dillion. We'll be able to give some information as
to how you can follow Jared and get in touch
with him if you're interested. He's somebody who is out there.
I know that you have several publications that people might
want to read, including books and websites, and we'll get
to all of that. And you're the editor of something
(18:28):
called The Daily Dirt NAP, a daily market newsletter for
investment professionals, continuously published since two thousand and eight. That
sounds like a very interesting piece of information on a
daily basis. We'll be back with my guest Jared Dillion,
and your phone calls right after this break up night
(18:49):
Side with Dan Ray.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
On Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
My guest is Jared Dillion. An amazing resume, a wide
variety of interests and professional activity. Wall Street, outside on
Wall Street, outside of Wall Street. Graduate of the US
Coast Guard Academy, BS and Math and Computer Sciences, from
(19:20):
the University of San Francisco, Masters in Business Administration, Concentration
and Finance, where he earned an NBA Award for the
highest Academic average average. And from the Savannah College of
Art and Design in twenty thirty three with a Master
of Fine Arts and Writing. That's quite a resume, folks,
Jared Dillion is our guest. Your phone calls are welcome,
(19:40):
and I'm looking more for questions. Okay, let me go
to George in Bridgewater. George, welcome you first this hour
one Night Side with Jared Dillion. Go ahead, George.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Oh thanks, thank you very much. Sain Jared, Jared, I
have a couple of questions for you, you know. And
the more I play in the sock market a little
so I signed into Yahoo Finance for the sports and
see how much sucks to do it. But I heard
today that the ten year yield was up fourteenth points
(20:12):
and the thirty year yield was up eight points, and
they were talking about the use the term this could
be a blow up in the capital market.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Did we lose George there, Yes, I think so.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
But I kind of know where he's going and I
can kind of comment on that.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, Suregard, Yeah, we did lose. A matter of fact,
we lost a couple of callers. So well, I hope
we haven't got a problem with our phones coming back
at us here. So let's uh, let's keep our fingers crossed.
If you're on the line and you dropped off, all
callback folks will get you on. We have had occasionally
some technical difficulties here. So George, you stay there, we'll
(20:56):
try to get an answer for you. Go right ahead, George,
go right ahead, Jared, I'm.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Sorry, yeah. So what's what? There's some really weird stuff
has been happening in the markets. You know, for the
most part, bonds are inversely correlated with stocks, so when
stocks go down, bonds go up and interest rates go down.
So what George was talking about is interest rates have
(21:19):
gone up a lot in the last couple of days,
which makes no sense at all. You would not expect
interest rates to go up while the stock market is crashing.
That never happens. So what people are speculating, and I
actually agree with this. You know, China is the owner
of eight hundred billion dollars in treasury bonds, and you know,
(21:42):
we implement one hundred and twenty percent tariffs on China exclusively,
and China says, well, forget you. We are going to
start selling your treasury bonds. We're going to sell fifty
billion and drive interest rates up, which is the exact
opposite of what Scott Beston is trying to do best,
trying to lower interest rates.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
That is what China and Japan were doing last night.
If I'm not mistaken, they were, they were they were
dumping treasury bonds.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
Yeah, I mean we don't know for sure, Like it's
I mean, you can't you can't tell, but I mean
the timing is so suspicious, like it really it almost
has to be China that was doing it.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
So so explain to the audience, if you would, Jared
by doing that, and China is an effect retaliating in
a different way, what are they trying to accomplish by
dumping treasury bonds?
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Well, I mean, really, what they're trying to do is
cause a recession or exacerbator recession. You know, if interest
rates go up, then mortgage rates go up, and car
loan rates go up, and every interest rate in the
country goes up, the cost of borrowing goes up, and
which tightens tightens the economy and makes it difficult for
(23:00):
consumers to borrow money. And that's bad, you know, that's
that's you know, And China has you know, and if
they sold fifty billion, you know, they still have another
seven hundred and fifty billion they can continue to sell bonds.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
So what what can chairm and Powell do to offset
that or would he have to stand aside and say
that is a part of a political action, that is
the chairman of the FED an interesting to get involved in.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
There's really there's nothing that the FED can do about
this there, Yeah, there's nothing that they can do. The
only thing I will say is is that you're seeing
a pretty big recovery in the bond market. Overnight. Thirty
year bond yields actually got to five percent. And you know,
(23:49):
when yields get high enough, they start looking attractive to
people and you'll see buyers come in. Uh. And that's
actually what you're seeing tonight.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
You know.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
I'm sitting here at my desk and I have a
couple of computer screens with futures all over them, and
I'm sitting here looking at bond futures and they're up
one in twelve thirty seconds over nine, which is a
really big move. So percent right, yeah, yeah, okay, all.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Right, George is back. George. I know we lost you there.
I apologize for that. Did you hear most of what
Jared had to say?
Speaker 4 (24:24):
Yeah? I sure did, And that was I said, I
have two questions, and it's just China and Japan roll
in US debt.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
You know, I know that China is secretly selling US debt.
Japan sells sixty two billion in the third quarter of
twenty twenty twenty four. If these countries boy caught US
deaths TOWUS the US Treasury treasury to offer higher yields,
wouldn't it, Jarret?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Yeah? So what what's what's going to happen is is that,
you know, the prevailing market interest rate is going to
go up. We actually have a thirty year bond auction tomorrow.
We're going to auction off about thirty billion and thirty
year bonds which are going to be at a higher
interest rate than if China hadn't done that. So what
they've effectively done is raise borrowing costs for the US
(25:16):
government and interest expense.
Speaker 4 (25:20):
Oh okay, yeah that worries me, especially John. I'm not
sure about your pen, but I mean, I really got
a lot. You've been on the Dan Ray shield tonight.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
Thank you very much, Yre, Thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Thanks Jeorge, you Dan appreciate you.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Come.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
Let's go to Frank and Burlington. Frank you next on nights.
I grow it ahead.
Speaker 5 (25:41):
Hey, how you doing, guys.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
We're doing great? Say ahead to Jared Dillion and what's
your question of comment?
Speaker 4 (25:47):
Hi?
Speaker 5 (25:47):
So my question is, so stocks we're trading at nineteen
times forward earnings at the low when it was at
thirty six to three on the Dow, and it was
trading sixteen point eight forward earnings at the high in
twenty nineteen. Stocks are wildly overvalued as it is, they
were looking for a reason to pull back. I don't
think Donald Trump should be making policy based on what
(26:09):
the stock market is doing. So my question is what
is the purpose? I disagree with a lot of what
he's doing, but I'd rather him follow through on it
than basically go halfway and then pull back and then
go back. It's the lack of clarity that's roiling markets
and that's roiling the economy. So my question is is
he looking to make tariffs a source of primary revenue
(26:31):
and bring income taxes down and basically collect revenue off
of tariffs, or is he looking to bring manufacturing back
or both. Whether that works or not is not really
relevant to my question. I'm just trying to figure out
what he's doing and what the markets. I mean, Marcus
go off, Marcus go down. If you don't like it,
(26:52):
don't invest but you shouldn't be making policy based on
the markets. Fifty six percent of what companies have raised
since twenty six have gone to buybacks, five has gone
to R and D, so the markets are wildly inflated.
I don't worry about that. I just want to know
what's the purpose of what he's doing.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Okay. One of the purpose that I think some people
are speculating is that he with the tariffs, he's hoping
to bring the national debt down from thirty seven trillion dollars.
But that's a whole bunch of questions there for you, Jared,
so blen't you untangle that with Those are great.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Questions, Yeah, for sure. So first of all, you know
Trump intervening in the markets today. Yes, stocks are still overvalued,
and yes nobody should feel sorry for hedge fund managers
who are losing money. But you know, the market was
down about twenty percent. If it had gone down another
(27:48):
ten percent, if it was down about thirty percent, then
you really have financial stability risks.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
You know.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
That's when things start to blow up. That's when banks fail,
that's when asset managers fail, that's when liquidity DIDs. So
even though stocks are overvalued. I mean, we really have
an interest in keeping financial market stability. So I think
that was you know, I think Bessett was in his
ear and said, look like it's getting pretty ugly out there,
(28:16):
like we have to do something or it's going to
get worse.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
Go ahead, Frank oh so so yeah, I mean the
financial liquidity in terms of stability of the overall financial
sector being at risk. I don't think that's really what
it was. I think it was more just reacting to
the four oh one ks, and I think he stated that, oh,
people were getting a little scared. I mean, there's other
ways to offset what you were talking about, But I mean,
(28:45):
I don't know if we were at that point. I
don't think this is a two thousand and eight where
fundamentally what's happening on Main Street drove what's happening on
Wall Street. I don't think it works in the verse necessarily.
So I think this was more just because of people's
four oh one kids, which if you're not retiring in
the next five ten years, I don't think you should
really worry about it anyway, and if you are, you
(29:05):
should really be rebalanced into a safer, more stable funds.
So I don't think we were at that point. I
think the FED has a lot of tools they don't
want to deploy, and I don't think they should at
this point. I think they should just lay back and
see how things go. But I think the FED is
there if we need them if things get really bad.
But I just think he should follow through on his
policies and basically see it through. I don't think he
(29:28):
should react based on markets, which I don't know if
we're doing. I don't really think he was based on
financial stability.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Yeah. I don't know if either of you heard the
comments the President made this afternoon, but at some point,
and I don't know if either of you picked up
on this, but he almost sort of like went into
sort of a golf analogy, and he said a lot
of people were getting a little yippie, and the yips
(29:53):
is a golf term for yeah, for folks who are
a little older and maybe they're they're hunting, they get
a little nervous and putting and all of that. And
I don't know did either of you pick that up.
It was like it was somehow it was like his
mind was on golf as opposed.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
To Chuck Chuck novel Yankees, different.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Different thing. He could couldn't go from second base. Yeah,
but the Yips were associated with call but yeah, that's it. Yeah,
that's another good example too. And Knoblock wasn't the only
one there's been. There's been a few pictures. Who have
they had what was called Steve blast disease, you know,
couldn't couldn't get the ball over the plate a picture
for the Pirates many years ago. Hey, Frank, great questions.
(30:37):
I'm so impressed by my calls, as I often am.
Thanks Frank. We'll see what happens. Where do you think
it's going to end up from? Thank you, Frank?
Speaker 5 (30:46):
Well, so, I think see so. I think that it
depends on who's who he's listening to. If he's listening
to Peter Navarro, who's a die hard. Uh, basically, I'm
not a free trader. Free trade has ruined everything. Naw
so was the worst thing ever. And I think that
this is really just a pause. And I don't think
I don't think he can negotiate seventy five different deals
(31:09):
with seventy five different countries. I mean, that's violating most
Favored Nation status anyway, in terms of the wto but
I mean, we're pretty much passed international law at this point.
But I mean, I think he's gonna follow through. I
think he's gonna follow through, and I think he's gonna
I think he's trying to bring manufacturing back. I think
he's trying to reorder the economy. Whether that's possible or
not is another story. And I think he's trying to
(31:30):
make it a source of revenue. So I think he's
gonna see it through. I don't think he's gonna backtrack completely.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
All right, Thank you, Frank, big big step back today,
though nonetheless kind of surprised me. Thanks Frank, appreciate it.
I guess is Jared Dillion. He is talking about the
decision by the president today to delay the imposition of
the terrorists by ninety days. Obviously was good for the market.
The market today had a huge jump. If you'd like
(31:58):
to comment or ask a question of a gentleman who
has knows this stuff inside and out. Six one seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty.
We may have had a little bit of a yips
in our phone system here, Rob. I think so anybody
who was on and got dropped off feel free to
jump on back. We're gonna hold Jared in just until
eleven o'clock and let him enjoy the rest of his evening. Uh.
(32:21):
I am really appreciative of the time he spent and
the explanations that he has provided. This has been a
really good hour. We'll be and we'll continue to be
right after this break.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's
news radio.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
My guest is Jared Dillion, writer, traded musician, entrepreneur, and educator.
So he said, a true renaissance man. Real quickly Jared
with the response. Today it was a huge day in
the market. I think it. It was reported that the
Nasdaq had its biggest increase in twenty five years. I mean,
it's an amazing uh turnaround. Whether it's a blip or
(33:02):
something more in the direction, I'm assuming that the rest
of this week has to be quieter than today. I
would hope. Do you see any way that the market
between now and the weekend is going to continue this?
I don't think it continued the pace going up or
reverse its up. There has to be a moment where
(33:23):
everybody takes a breath through. Am I reading it wrongly?
Speaker 4 (33:26):
No.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
So have you heard of the VIX, the volatility index?
Speaker 2 (33:30):
Yes, okay, pretty much. Ye.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
So basically, what the VIX is, it's a it's a
measure of option prices and it's a measure of volatility
in the market. The VIX was above fifty this morning. Yeah, yeah,
it was close to sixty, and now I think it's
down about thirty or high twenties or something like that.
So what the VIX is telling you is that traders
(33:55):
are anticipating less volatility. The vics absolutely got smashed today.
You know, option prices came way down. I actually was
trading that myself. So yeah, it's I think I think
the worst is behind us. It's still going to be
valdol Uh. It's it's going to be nothing like you know,
(34:16):
the quiet times that we experienced in twenty twenty four.
But it'll be quieter now.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
How can folks follow you again? You're the editor of
the Daily Dirt napp. Is this something that is put
out and is available or is this all subscription based?
I know that you have some some recent books out.
I suspect a lot of people would like to at
least keep in touch with you, and well, we will
keep in touch with you. Is the Daily Dirt NP
(34:45):
available or is that? Is that subscriber based?
Speaker 3 (34:48):
It's subscriber based. So I have a number of publications
at a website called Jareddillionmoney dot com. Okay, So at
Jaredillion Money dot com there is the Daily Dirt and app.
There's a few other newsletters. We actually have educational courses.
We have a Bond masterclass, which teaches you about how
(35:09):
bonds work. We literally just came out with an options
masterclass last week. So lots of stuff at jareddillionmoney dot com.
You should check it out.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Okay, So Jared J A R. E. D. Dillion D
I L L I A N Money dot com. And
some of it is subscription, but some of it is
available for whoever wants to go on there. Uh. And
I gotta tell you that my audience has some pretty
(35:42):
good questions. We've we've been dealing with this now for
five nights in a row, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and tonight.
Very different tone tonight for certain, much more relaxed and positive.
I mean last night it was getting really tough there.
Quick final question for me, as you look at the
(36:04):
people that President Trump has surrounded himself with in terms
of the financial team, the economy team. Give me your
analysis of Peter Navarro. I am not impressed. And I
know that Navarro is very loyal. Was one of these
guys that went to jail, smart guy, grew up in
this area. Is he at this point you think going
(36:28):
to be pushed aside? He's the trade advisor.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Right, Yeah, So Navarrow I think is going to lose
influence over time. Scott Bessen is is, uh, you know,
orders of magnitude smarter than Nabarrow. So I think I
think Navarrow isn't gonna last six months.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
But you know, Navarro was.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
A Democrat for many years. He ran for Congress out
in San Diego back in the early nineties under a
no growth platform. He was against economic growth, and he
hasn't fundamentally changed over the years. Like he's not a capitalist,
he's not a free market guy. He has he has
(37:11):
a poisonous influence on the president. I don't like him
at all. So, you know, I really this shift towards
you know, getting rid of tariffs on other countries except
for China. Bessen is the architect of that. And you know,
I think we're not going to hear much from to
borrow in the future.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
And then my last question is it was there was
a joke earlier this week that I guess they put
a tariff on a couple of uninhabited islands in the
South Pacific. How does something like that happen at the
White House? I mean that that that sort of says
to me amateur.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
Alan actually believe it or not? I heard about that.
That's not unreasonable. So one of the reasons they did that,
and I'm sure you heard this, is so they didn't
they didn't want countries using those islands as a loophole
to get around the tariffs. Right, So you might think
of it as kind of nonsensical or overkill, but there
(38:06):
actually was a purpose behind it.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
So yeah, all right, well that I've never heard that
that analysis, but it makes it makes a point. I
assume there's a lot of uninhabited islands in the world.
I really enjoyed this hour, Jared, Thank you so much,
and I want to thank the gentleman who put you
and me in contact today, Chris Berry. It was it
was a really good hour, and you make this conversation fun.
(38:31):
Uh maybe fun. I should have had you on one
of the one of the bad nights. But thank you
so much. I'd love to keep in touch again. Jared
Dillion J A R. E. D. Dillion d I L
L I A N Money dot Com. Thanks again. I
hope to have you back.
Speaker 3 (38:46):
Thanks Jared, thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
You bet you all right? When we come back, we're
going to get your reaction last night, it was kind
of a funeral parler. Uh, well tonight. You know, we're
not out of the woods yet here, but I think
we're going. We went in the right direction today. Let's
talk about it. Coming back right after the eleven o'clock
news on Nightside, I'll open the lines up. It's just
(39:09):
you and me between now and midnight. Fill them up.
Six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty or six
one seven, nine three one ten thirty
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