October 29, 2024 • 40 mins
According to a new Emerson College national survey of U.S. likely voters, both former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have 49% support with voters in the 2024 presidential election. They are evenly divided, making this what appears to be a very close election in one week! Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling joined us to discuss the poll results and the most pressing issues for voters this November!
Ask Alexa to play WBZ NewsRadio on #iHeartRadio and listen to NightSide with Dan Rea Weeknights From 8PM-12AM!
Ask Alexa to play WBZ NewsRadio on #iHeartRadio and listen to NightSide with Dan Rea Weeknights From 8PM-12AM!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
It's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm Deli Fleas Boston Video.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Welcome back everyone as we head into our ten o'clock
hour here on Tuesday night, the twenty ninth of October.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
My name is Dan Ray. As we move our way towards.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Midnight, I'm delighted to welcome back a very important figure
at this time of the year every quadrennial, but he's
an important figure throughout all the time as far as
I'm concerned, Suffolk University poster Spencer Kimball, who's developed really
quite a reputation.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
For Suffolk University with the polls that he does for
so many clients. Spencer Kimball, welcome back to Nightside, Dan.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
And thanks again for having me as always absolutely so.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Tell us how many different You don't have to give
me the names of all the clients, but Suffolk you
do a lot of polling, not only for Suffolk but
also for other institutions and corporations.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
Correct, well, Dan, you got me backwards. Remember I went
to Suffolk, studied with Dave and now I'm over at Emerson.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
But we run.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Yeah, you know, I apologie.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
First of all, I totally apologize. I totally apologize. I
was doing a couple of things. It's Emerson College. My mistake,
that is, that's a mortal sin here to mix you up.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Now there on the other side of a common we're friends.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
No, no, no, no, no, I totally get so tell
us about Emerson, because what I meant is that that
I see all the national polls, and there's a couple
of other universities around the country. But both Dave Pale
Loogus at Suffolk and you at Emerson, and thank you
for being a very gentle correction. You should have yelled
at me because I totally blanked out, and I apologize
for that. I'm there trying to do three or four
(01:50):
things simultaneously here and I sometimes have a tough time
doing one one thing, well, signed one thing.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Well, so who else? I mean? Why?
Speaker 2 (01:58):
How has Suffolk gotten How has Emerson gotten such a
really great reputation amongst the polling community.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Well, first, you know, it's great to hear that reputation
exists within your space, and that's what we try to
work to achieve. What essentially helped us create the space
is innovation in data collection. And it's not the most
exciting thing to talk about. But if we just think
(02:29):
about the ways we communicate today the way we communicated
forty years ago. It's really leaps and bounds in lifestyle
differences and in communication. So what we've done at Emerson
is we study communication and we look at, well, what's
(02:49):
the way people are communicating. In about ten twelve years ago,
we kind of restarted the survey and polling program and
used new ways of data collection to kind of test
it out in the academic world. So it's happening in industry,
but in the universities and colleges, we were generally collecting
(03:12):
data using live operators and we'd call people up and
ask them their questions. But as technology has evolved, what
we're doing today is text messaging people. We're sending out emails.
We use automated phone calls where people don't have to
they can use their keypads to answer surveys, and they
(03:33):
can even enter into panels. And these innovations is kind
of leading the forefront of the survey industry, and that's
what gives us these opportunities. And the pre election polling
for us is the canary and the coal mine. We
get to test out these different methodologies. You know, is
there a difference between a text message poll and an
(03:54):
online poll, or what about a survey that has people
opt in to participate in it. You know, anybody can
come take this survey at some of these groups, how
do those work? And the elections give us a chance
to kind of test out what methods are better, and
then we use that information to do other survey work,
(04:16):
which is a much larger industry. And I think that's
what you're alluding to with some of those other clients,
and that can range from the San Francisco Police Department,
who we currently are just finishing a study for, to
Common Good Index, to different associations. We do a holiday
study on footwear. We do a lot of health communication
(04:39):
on vaccines and bird flu and other areas that traditionally
may have been very expensive to conduct this type of research.
But because technology has evolved and we don't have to
pay operators to call people, we are able to bring
down the cost of some of the data collection, which
(05:01):
gives us really valuable information. And in some areas, obviously,
election polls have value, but some of the areas in
health communication and other market research also has value as well.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
So let me ask you this question, Okay, In the
old days you would rely upon and maybe these were
days even before when you were involved. In the old days,
posters rely upon the white pages in the phone book
and they would they would, that's how they would find
people's numbers. Now, how do you find people's cell phone numbers?
(05:41):
There's no I'm sure there's somewhere that my cell phone
number is listed, but it's not available to you as
a polster, or maybe it is.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
Well, Dan, that too has evolved over so telephones become
the major mode of data collection starting in the nineteen seventies.
And you know at and t let your fingers do
the you know talking, well anyways, the walking, let your
fingers do the walking, and so, uh, you can see,
(06:11):
telephones are there, and polsters were using something called random
digit dialing where they would create root numbers based on
area codes and then you'd have roots and then a
random number. And what happens in random digit dialing is
everybody could be included. So if you're a doctor and
you had an unlisted number, well, random digit dialing would.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Find that number.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Now, in the era of landlines, and now you got
to remember, you also were calling libraries and hospitals and
other random numbers that you have to be very careful about,
you know, calling and soliciting that process became expensive, so
they moved to using registered voter lists or registered based
(06:56):
sampling back in like the nineteen nineties and into the
the beginning of this of this century, where I know
you think that like you know, you register to vote
and there's your name and your address, but there's a
lot of companies out there that append the data back
to you. So we do have a database of you know,
(07:21):
I think it's well over two hundred and seventy million
points of contact with I think about one hundred and
forty million cell phones, one hundred and thirty million cell phones.
So we've got a large database to pull from. And
that's where so.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
I'm not doing when you're going for cell phone because
more people, more and more people every year have got
rid of the landline and now we're cell phone dependent.
And you're saying that when you want to call someone
that fits my profile, you you you're not random dialing
and saying to the person, well, how old are you,
(08:00):
what's your ethnicity? Are you a Democrat, Republican, unenrolled, et cetera.
You have an idea when you when that number dials, Uh,
who that person is?
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Who's going to pick up that phone?
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
In fact, when you get these texts, when you get
the text message, it's going to say, hi Dan, will
you take the survey? It's personalized and that's how that's
how much we know who's taking it now. To me,
there's an issue with personalizing it too much because there's
you want to be anonymous and confidential. There's the reason
why we have a secret ballot in this country. And
(08:37):
you know, the survey is intended to be anonymous, and
so we sometimes yeah, and to help keep people honest,
and you know, we think about are you comfortable if
somebody calls you up and says, you know, hi Dan?
You know the suspense and you're like, who's Spence? And
(08:57):
how do you know my name? So as to if
you get a text message from Emerson College that says, hey,
you want to take an Emerson College poll. As you mentioned,
a lot of people have heard of the Emerson College
poll and they might be willing to participate and share
their opinions with us for us to be able to
represent public opinion.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
My guest is Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
He is the polling guru if you will, for Emerson
College has done a great job this. I've never really
had a chance to drill down and understand this, so
I'm learning something. I hope some of you are as well.
When I get back, I'm going to tell you an
anonymous text that I got tonight. I don't think it
(09:40):
was directed at me, but you're going to break it
down for me when I explain to see I think
you'll get a kick out of it, and then we
will talk, assuming that you're willing to talk about what
you're seeing in the polls, in your polls and other polls.
As we are now really less than a week away
from November fifth, something that many of us have had
marked on our calendar for years, and now it is.
(10:03):
It's almost here. So I'm excited about it. I want
to talk with Spencer about it, and I hope some
of you might want to call and ask Spencer a
question if you'd like.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Feel free.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The number that we give out it's not my cell
phone number, it's the WBC call line six one seven,
two five four ten thirty six one seven nine three
one ten thirty Spencer. I could talk with you about
this stuff all night. I don't want to have used
your time. Just tell my producer what your time living is.
If if I if we're done at ten thirty and
you've got something you got to do in the.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Morning, please I'll uh if you can.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Stay a little later. I'd love to have you stay
a little later. But that's your call, and just talk
to my producer. The other Dan on the board tonight,
Rob is off, So Dan is our other producer tonight,
be back with your phone calls along with Spencer Kimball,
Emerson University pollster based here in Boston, Massachusetts, but with
a very long reach around the country. Back on Nightside
(10:59):
after this.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
I'm talking with my friend Spencer Kimball. He is a pollster.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
He and Dave Paleo Logus and John Zogby, I think
are the three best posters in the country.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We'll have Dave with us tomorrow night. We had Spencer
with us a week ago. Dave was with us as well.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Spencer's I get this text tonight, okay, and I want
you to interpret.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
I think you're gonna get get it. Get a kick
out of this here ready.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
No, No one should know my cell phone number except
people like you, friends of mine, or family members, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Okay, so I get a text earlier this evening.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Hi Stephen. My name is not Stephen. Okay, my middle
name is not Stephen. Hi Stephen. I'm Matt, a volunteer
with Swing Left. Our call oween phone Bank to call
voters in Wisconsin with special guests including Katherine Hahn, Natasha Rothwell,
(12:10):
Busy Phillips, and Moore will be on Wednesday, October thirtieth
at seven pm Eastern time. We'd love to see you there.
Will you join us?
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Now?
Speaker 2 (12:24):
You're you're more hip than I am, Spencer, but I
have no idea. Who's Katherine Hahn? Do you have an idea?
Speaker 4 (12:32):
No? Unless they're running for office? Not my department. I
have people I work with.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
An actress, Dan telling me?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Dan's telling me an actress? Okay? Dan? What about Natasha Rothwell?
That one? He doesn't know? What about Busy Phillips? Okay?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
So we got Dan the producers one out of three?
So will you join us at rapid recruit dot Org.
I have no idea what that is, but I assume
since it's entitled Swing Left. It's probably not my cup
of tea politically, but here's how I answered this. Okay,
I hope I haven't broken any federal law here, but
(13:13):
your confession is good for the soul. I responded, I'll
go to Wisconsin to help. I have lots of cash
to bring with me.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Out to the Badger State.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
I hope they.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Don't get too excited or something that Steven is going
to actually go there. But I thought to myself, I'm
receiving this is from area Coach six 't eighty one,
which I checked out, which is actually West Virginia. So
there's a phone bank in West Virginia that's called Swing
Left that's going to be calling people in Wisconsin. It's
(13:49):
just the way we communicate these days is fascinating.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
So the question, then, and the reason I told you
this story, is if this had been.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
As survey, it said, Hi, Steven, you know, somehow, some
way this my number is associated with with someone named
Stephen I have known, and by the way, I've had
this phone for a long time. So if this was
a poll, I could answer anything. I could tell them
that I wanted, you know, Trotsky or Lemon or Lenin
(14:19):
to be president, it wouldn't matter. But how tough is
it as a polster whose reputation depends on the accuracy
of the polls you conduct to make sure you know
who you're talking to and that you have some idea
about what their background is.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
Well, you know, that's the challenge and why some folks
question not using live operators, because with a live operator,
you know that you're talking to somebody. You know it's
not a child. You know, you could ask them their
name to verify it, and some posters do that in
these news systems. And where the future is going to
(15:03):
go is within these panels where people have opted in
and they're getting rewarded to take the surveys. We're already
seeing it to some degree today, but in you know
the next three to five years, it'll be even bigger
business in these panels. And in those cases, those folks
you'll already have that demographic data on them. Obviously, they
(15:27):
can still not tell you the truth about their opinions,
or their opinions can also change. You know, you can
wake up happy and you know how things going great,
and by four o'clock you're like, was the tough day?
The opinions change and but with that, we do have
(15:47):
a few ways of testing within the survey of if
somebody is just like flicking through it and not pressing
or randomly you know, answering questions or UH has to make.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Sure, okay, speczer.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Do you over sample so that if you're looking to
get a poll, let's say a national poll of one
thousand legitimate voters, which are a portion between fifty states
and balance between men and women, Republicans, Democrats, independence and
all of that, do you over sample so you'll have
fifteen hundred or you'll have five thousand, and you can
(16:25):
you can sort of prone out the ones that you
think are responsive and.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Legitimate or or can you not do that at this point?
Speaker 4 (16:36):
No, you certainly, you certainly go through that process. You know,
for example, you can see how long it took the
person to take the survey, somebody who took it within
thirty seconds. It raises an eyebrow. Those there's some mechanics
that we can see, you know, behind the curtain that
(16:57):
allows us to know where they are are and other
bits of information there. So there are things. But yes,
because of the way we collect the data, the cost
per collection is fairly low compared to live operator data collection.
So for live operators, hard to throw away data that's
(17:19):
costing maybe thirty five to forty dollars a complete. In
my world that's costing maybe fixed to eight dollars a complete.
So you know, still it hard to throw that away.
But we have a little bit more room. And so
to your point, we do scrub out. Not everybody who
takes the survey has the best of intentions, and we
(17:42):
have those those catches throughout the honey pots throughout the
survey to try to catch those folks.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Do you think that polls today are more accurate, less accurate,
or similar in terms of their accuracy to prior elections? Obviously,
as the technology changes, you'd like to think that the
technology creates more accurate polls. I mean, that's what the
(18:16):
goal is. Obviously.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Do you feel better as these newer, you know, procedures
are now being implemented, adopted and become really you know
part of the equation?
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Oh, yes, right, The bottom line is yes, polling is
getting better. You've got to remember that a survey is
a range of scores. It's not an exact score, and
so the key is using a large enough sample, like
a sample of a thousand people that has a margin
enviuyer of three, which is like a six point spread. Now, historically, yeah,
either you know, three points on either side tow it's
(18:52):
a six point so but historically, like if you go
back to the famous nineteen thirty six George Gallup poll
and literary digest having alf land In beating FDR and
this emerged George Gallup, who had FDR winning that poll
actually falls outside their margin of error. They had the winner,
(19:12):
but they didn't have FDR winning by enough. And nineteen
forty Gallup gets the poll wrong. They actually have Wilkie
I think winning that election. So the polls aren't you
know historically nineteen forty eight. You know, they talk about
the twenty sixteen election and those were some bad polls
(19:35):
they but in forty eight, we're talking about being off
by like seventeen points in some states thirty points. Like
the polling disasters of forty eight were are truly let
all over. Like just imagine that being off across many
many states because there was only two or three polsters
at the time, four polsters. Now there's literally over four
(19:57):
hundred polsters and it's hard to and to make sense
of all of that. But the technology improves and the industry.
Remember we're we're market you know, survey research, market research.
We do polling as uh, you know, kind of an
offshoot to the bigger part of the discipline. So and
(20:18):
it also informs us, as I mentioned earlier, about what
methods and you know work best in the survey field.
By having an election, well.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
It's great because you you can look back on, hopefully,
if not November fifth, November sixth, or November seventh, maybe
over the latest and say, okay, here's what we projected,
here's what it worked out to be. And so look
what I want to do. We've talked theory a lot.
I want to get to the to the big races
at hand.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
Uh and right.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Time, Dann, we're gonna put our audience to sleep talking theory.
They're gonna be not at all.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
No, I gotta tell you something. I'm fascinated by it.
And I get people who call all the time.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
I've never been called by a pollster.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
I don't to mean this is fascinating, Okay, yeah, because
it's great. Well, I really mean that seriously, It's something
that I read the polls, uh, And I'm always trying
to see what can I see? What? What little thing
can I see? I call it a vector? You know what?
What what way is the wind blowing that I can
see ahead of time? Uh? And and that's I'm I'm
(21:25):
sure you know what I'm what I'm referring to when
I when I speak like that. So, uh, if if
folks want to call and ask a question about polling
generally or about the race at hand, uh, they got
to light it up. Six one, seven, two, five, four,
ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
triple eight nine two nine, ten thirty. This again is
your opportunity to talk to a real, live, legitimate pollster.
(21:48):
These poles, by the way, folks, have tremendous impact within
campaigns and within the media at large, because when Emerson
College puts out a poll, it's red. Believe me, it's red.
And when Suffolk puts out a poll, it's red. And
believe me it's red, and it's carried. And there are
a couple of others around the country that are that
(22:09):
are that are important as well. But uh, five point
thirty eight is one that has been very interesting as well.
Uh I I well, we have much to discuss to discuss.
We'll be right back on Nightside with Spencer Kimball. If
you've never been polled, this is your opportunity to actually,
if not Pole, you can even troll a pollster here. Okay,
(22:32):
Spencer Kimball of Emerson, I don't want you to do that.
Back on Nightside right after these few messages and the
news at the bottom of the hour.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Night Side with Dan Ray, I'MBZ Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson college pollster who has
a national reach. At this point, Emerson is recognized, along
with Dave Paleo Logus's group at Suffolk, as a significant,
significant poster on presidential elections and on Senate races. So again, Spencer,
(23:08):
no one's expecting you to call the election. But what
are you seeing in the last few weeks? Do you
think that this election is going to be as close
as everyone would seem to suggest it is. Do you
see any movement to.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Speak of either the vice president or former President Trump?
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Well, yes, that's the exciting week. Next week, this time
we'll be looking at returns and we will have a
much better sense obviously what's going on. But when we
look at you know around the country if we want
to kind of talk around the horn, if we go
out west, we see Arizona leaning more Republican. We'll just
(23:48):
talk presidential politics, but happy to jump into any Senate
But in the presidential level, Arizona there are eleven electoral votes.
There's a state that Biden stood to me. What you're
looking at is like you got to flip a state.
It's like in basketball, you got to win on the
other team's home court before the play. You know, it
becomes a series. So here, Arizona would be a state
(24:11):
where it looks to be a state Trump's can be
able to bring back that was part of his coalition
of twenty sixteen, lost it in twenty twenty by less
than about three tenths of a point. And out there
their major issue is immigration. It's like thirty percent. They're
the only state, really Texas a little high with immigration.
(24:34):
But yeah, so there's a state there that for Trump.
Georgia would be another one for Trump that Biden was
able to take back in twenty twenty by again about
two to three tenths of a point. We'll see if
(24:55):
by if Trump is able to hold that one. He
seems to be getting along well with Governor Kemp, and
we'll see what the ground game looks like in Georgia.
And then North Carolina would be a state for Harris
to take and that would open up a potential Southern
strategy if the Midwest Wall was to collapse and you know,
(25:23):
or if a state or two was to drop, particularly
if you go out to like Wisconsin. The polling is
generally trending towards Trump out there. Harris had a three
to four point lead. Historically, Wisconsin's been the toughest state
out of the seven for the Polsters. We were off
the most in Wisconsin over the last two cycles and
(25:47):
not really great at improvement. I wish we have done better.
Hopefully this cycle we do and right now we have
it tied leaning towards Trump, so that would be a
pickup state as well. And then you got your Pennsylvania
and Michigan vote looking close. But the general takeaway is
(26:12):
Trump is doing better with men in Harris is generally
doing about the same with women as Biden did with women,
and that kind of will cut across race and ethnicity,
and she does do better than Biden with younger voters,
but we have not seen those folks come to the polls.
(26:35):
So in this early voting, you'll notice that some of
the sites that monitor it, most of the early vote
is older vote. It's very disproportionate towards those over fifty.
And so we'll see if the Democrat young vote comes
out on election day and is able to put her
over the top in some of these key swing states.
(26:58):
But to remember some of these points that I'm talking about,
you know, it's like one eighty thousand votes in Pennsylvania
as a point, so you got to you got to
convince eighty thousand people to shift over if you're up
a point there. So those are you know, points aren't
always the same based on the population of each state.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
So this is not twenty twenty, but it is. Trump
has to Trump won those three states the Blue Wall Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania. That's what elected him in twenty sixteen. So
he has to really accomplish, if not all of those states,
(27:42):
at least one of them at a minimum, and maybe
a couple. Because it's every every year is a little different.
I mean, people understand the middle of the country's red,
the coast tend to be blue. We get that, but
This is truly still close a call. Either one of
these candidates could win, okay, by a narrow margin. Does
(28:05):
either have the potential of winning by a decisive margin.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
Well, first year earlier point, Trump could lose that blue
wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, take back Georgia, Arizona, and
then flip Nevada in New Hampshire and he wins the presidency.
So there's different pathways with polls that are within the
poll's margin of error. Now it looked like there's a
(28:34):
better chance for Trump to have a blowout than for
Harris to have a blowout. And I say that based
on the popular vote. Generally, the conventional wisdom is if
the Republicans, if you know, the Republicans win the popular
vote like bushed it in two thousand and four, the
last Republican to do that. Since I think eighty eight,
(28:58):
the Republicans will win. And it looks on the popular
vote that it could go in either direction. But this
selection is a little bit different in that Harris hasn't
had a full year year and a half campaigning. It's
really only been a couple of months, and so she's
kind of doing okay. Like in our Massachusetts fault. She's
(29:21):
up by twenty three points, which is a solid lead,
but Biden won the state by about thirty three thirty
four points, so there is some melt that we're seeing
same thing in New York. And then we see a
little bit of a gains for Trump in Florida and Texas.
So we're seeing this rising tide, you know, in some
(29:44):
places for Trump and he's a little dropping, but in
the swing states, those are holding more steady because that's
where the money's being spent and the campaigns are being organized.
Speaker 6 (29:54):
Yeah, ironically, Harris has much more money available right now.
I mean, she's she's swimming in the money. Trump is
not swimming in the money, at least in the political money.
What about Minnesota. I know that there's been some slippage
in Minnesota for the Democrats, even though Waltz is in
the ballot.
Speaker 4 (30:12):
Yeah, to me, that would be hard to imagine Minnesota
being in play with Walls on the ballot. It was
kind of like Tim Kane being in Virginia, and you
know that state got more competitive in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 5 (30:25):
We'll see if.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
To me, Walls needs to give you Wisconsin if you're
the Democrat because that's your neighboring state. He's the governor
of Minnesota. He should be able to give you Wisconsin.
So Wisconsin's really a toss up, probably leaning towards Trump.
But Minnesota, if that's even in play now, the Democrats
have a real problem because those should in Minnesota, Virginia,
(30:49):
New Hampshire. Some folks think New Mexico those should not be.
But New Mexico I don't think is really swinging at all.
Speaker 7 (30:59):
But the other I thought, I thought, I thought I
said some pole that said that Minnesota, uh, at some
point recently was a lot tighter than anyone would have expected,
which caused me.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
To say whether yesterday three points.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Yeah, and and whether or not that is evidence that
that maybe Harris made a mistake in not picking the
government of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Well right before we get, you know, too far ahead
of the obituary.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
No, no, I'm not, I'm not trying to get to
the obituary. I'm just saying, yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
Go ahead, she's uh, you know, Walls, you know, we'll
see how it plays out. But Walls did provide some
impact at the at the start of the race. I
would say, I think the biggest criticism of him has
been his debate performance, for better or worse, because it
(31:54):
wasn't able to keep the Republicans on defense from where
Trump was even know, if you look at the polling
between what September the first debate September tenth, and then
prior to that October.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
October VP, Yeah, it was October first.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
Percent said that Harris won the debate. But as you
look at the ballot test question over those three and
a half weeks, three weeks, Trump actually gained ground. So
it was a very strange ish, you know, situation where
was turning it. Yes, all right, I got it.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
I gotta grab a commercial.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
I got a couple of calls you want to get to,
and I think you've given me a sense of where
we are a week out. That doesn't mean that's where
we will be a week from now. But I'm looking
at a lot of polls and I'm seeing some of
the same trends that that you're seeing, which in the
(32:55):
end might not make a huge difference, or in the
end they might be the proverbial care canaries in the
coal mine. We'll be back on Night Side with Spencer Kimball.
Emerson College. Emerson College poster coming right back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
Now back to Dan Way live from the Window World
Nice Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
With me Is Emerson, Poster, Spencer, Kimball, Spencer, let's get
a couple of callers in here. We'll talk to the
real people. Let me go to Glenn in Brighton. Glenn,
you were next on Nice Side with Spencer. Kimball had
a question or comment for Spencer.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
Glenn, Well, kind of both. I told you to producer
that I'd be a nice person because this sticks in
my c I wish that they neither band postering or
at least have what do not posted me with because
at the end of the day, I don't think it's
anybody's business or I vote for unless you, my friend,
(33:49):
you have.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
To answer the polls. Glenn. You know you don't have
to answer me.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
I know, and when I do, I lie.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
Okay, Well, fine, say how to Glenn, Spencer.
Speaker 5 (34:01):
I'm Glenn.
Speaker 4 (34:02):
We did we appreciate you know, I mean, you're sharing
whatever opinions, but you know we're not looking to to
influence elections. You know, we're not looking to influence. We're
looking just to represent and be able to share with
public opinion. Not just on elections, but on the issues
of the day, in some of the policies that people
(34:23):
are talking about. So it's important that you know, you
take if you have the opportunity to participate in a
legitimate poll or survey, that you do share your opinion
if you want that opinion to be represented in in
these surveys, because they do have an impact on policy,
they have an impact on to work on, and that's
where you know, it's affording to participate.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
That way. Oh, I'm sorry. I don't want to be
influenced by the Boss to go over the Boss and
the Herald or how we would or Taylor Swift or
any of them.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
You know what I mean, Glenn, You don't have.
Speaker 5 (35:01):
To be I think for myself. That's just me.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
That's that you do that, Glenn.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
So congratulations, you know, I mean one Glenn, I asked
you what's your most important issue? And I get that
opinion from a thousand people. It lets us know, like
housing affordability is a really important issue for voters.
Speaker 5 (35:20):
Mooted.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
We know that, but you know that's for you know,
that's what that's what we try to learn and then
hopefully resolve, you know, solve some of the problems that
we have in mind.
Speaker 5 (35:31):
Mine's who week immigration.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
All right, great, Glenn, I'm gonna let you go because
I think that probably we've that never the Twains, you'll
meet here.
Speaker 3 (35:38):
Thanks Glenn.
Speaker 5 (35:39):
I just wanted to say some click go ahead, be quick.
All right? Yeah, No, I did get a woman post
her and I could tell that she was actually her
boss called me the next day and apologized. She said,
you know, she started out, are you white? I should
get are you other? Are you? And I said, all right,
I'll tell you the truth. I'm a white, angle sex
and Protestant male. I'm a Trump supporter, and you know
(36:02):
I don't a poet. I want I want my country back.
And she goes, that's on you, and I said, well,
this is on you, and I hung up on her.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Okay, yeah, Solen, appreciate the experience.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
I can understand. Uh, I know you pretty well. And again,
you don't have to participate with these folks. It's as
simple as that. As I told you tonight, I sent
the text back to someone said I'll see in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
I'll bring the cash.
Speaker 5 (36:27):
You know.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
I was having fun, all right, Thanks, Thanks Glenn. Jack
down to the Kpayjack. Next to a nice eye was
Spencer Kimball of Emerson University.
Speaker 8 (36:35):
Go ahead, Jack, Thanks guys. I called a couple of
weeks ago and I said that the politics of today
is the ultimate high tech Brendon circus. Who you know
these candidates, this is Bretton's circus. On's who's really running
the show is deep under the deep state. They're underground anyway.
(37:00):
But I want to talk about polling. You know, it
seems to me, you know, you're pulling a person, an event,
a person. What about the depth of the poll. In
other words, you present a pole, but the depth of
(37:23):
the pole, it's really are It's actually a three dimensional
matrix of age and this is what you look at age, sex, location,
all all the dynamic data that goes into into what
with a pole? And uh, how do we how can
(37:43):
we more present the dimensional aspects of a poll rather
than just coming out with the statement.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
Spencer's going to answer your question right now? Go ahead, Spencer.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Well, yeah, so the horse phrase is where it gets.
Everybody's a tent and they want the ballot test question
and that's what drives the media. But it's that underlying
data and when we look at this race for examples,
what it's.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
Called the cross tabs, correct Spencer.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
Yes, the cross tabs, the cross tabs, and so what.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
You explained to Jack what you mean by that? Please?
Speaker 4 (38:20):
And yeah, so Jack, it's a great question. I know
you're familiar, but for the rest of the audience out
there who might not be as familiar, we have different
variables like gender, or age, or education, and we want
to know how some of those different variables demographics impact
(38:41):
who they're going to vote for or what issues are
most important to them. And what we do is we
can take a look by comparing instead of the whole
sample of a thousand people, we're looking at a subset
of let's say five hundred men or five hundred women,
and from that we can learn, for example, that Donald
(39:05):
Trump is doing better with men this cycle than he
did in twenty twenty, and women are about the same
with Harris than they were with Biden. And that difference
is what's driving the polls and why you're seeing a
three to four point tightening from what we saw in
(39:25):
twenty twenty. And that's all because we have the cross
stabs to look at that data and better understand what's
driving these changes in attitude and what groups are driving it.
And now we like to kind of pull back curtain,
be open from what normal people don't see because we
(39:46):
use this in market research to help sell candy bars
and cars and other products and services by better understanding
our audience ahead of time and then using that information
for persuasion. But here we're just trying to gauge public
opinion on those issues of policy or candidates.
Speaker 2 (40:07):
Gentlemen, I gotta jump in, Jack. We're flat out a
time boy. I wish you called early. It was a
great question, and Spencer, that's a great thanks Jack, Spencer,
that's a great answer. Spencer, Thanks so much for your time.
I know it's the busy season. I can't tell you
how much I value your friendship and your work. And
we will be watching very closely between now and Tuesday,
and if you see anything that's interesting that you want
(40:28):
to share with us any night, you got the private numbers, Okay.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
We'll send out a text. Thanks Dan, Thanks.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
So much, Thanks so much, Spencer, Kimball. Let's continue to
talk about polls. We may agree or disagree on this,
but i'd like to know your thoughts on polls. I
think they're invaluable. And I tell you why I think
they're going to be invaluable this time. Back on Night's side,
right after the eleven o'clock news
It's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm Deli Fleas Boston Video.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Welcome back everyone as we head into our ten o'clock
hour here on Tuesday night, the twenty ninth of October.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
My name is Dan Ray. As we move our way towards.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Midnight, I'm delighted to welcome back a very important figure
at this time of the year every quadrennial, but he's
an important figure throughout all the time as far as
I'm concerned, Suffolk University poster Spencer Kimball, who's developed really
quite a reputation.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
For Suffolk University with the polls that he does for
so many clients. Spencer Kimball, welcome back to Nightside, Dan.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
And thanks again for having me as always absolutely so.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Tell us how many different You don't have to give
me the names of all the clients, but Suffolk you
do a lot of polling, not only for Suffolk but
also for other institutions and corporations.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
Correct, well, Dan, you got me backwards. Remember I went
to Suffolk, studied with Dave and now I'm over at Emerson.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
But we run.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Yeah, you know, I apologie.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
First of all, I totally apologize. I totally apologize. I
was doing a couple of things. It's Emerson College. My mistake,
that is, that's a mortal sin here to mix you up.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Now there on the other side of a common we're friends.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
No, no, no, no, no, I totally get so tell
us about Emerson, because what I meant is that that
I see all the national polls, and there's a couple
of other universities around the country. But both Dave Pale
Loogus at Suffolk and you at Emerson, and thank you
for being a very gentle correction. You should have yelled
at me because I totally blanked out, and I apologize
for that. I'm there trying to do three or four
(01:50):
things simultaneously here and I sometimes have a tough time
doing one one thing, well, signed one thing.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Well, so who else? I mean? Why?
Speaker 2 (01:58):
How has Suffolk gotten How has Emerson gotten such a
really great reputation amongst the polling community.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Well, first, you know, it's great to hear that reputation
exists within your space, and that's what we try to
work to achieve. What essentially helped us create the space
is innovation in data collection. And it's not the most
exciting thing to talk about. But if we just think
(02:29):
about the ways we communicate today the way we communicated
forty years ago. It's really leaps and bounds in lifestyle
differences and in communication. So what we've done at Emerson
is we study communication and we look at, well, what's
(02:49):
the way people are communicating. In about ten twelve years ago,
we kind of restarted the survey and polling program and
used new ways of data collection to kind of test
it out in the academic world. So it's happening in industry,
but in the universities and colleges, we were generally collecting
(03:12):
data using live operators and we'd call people up and
ask them their questions. But as technology has evolved, what
we're doing today is text messaging people. We're sending out emails.
We use automated phone calls where people don't have to
they can use their keypads to answer surveys, and they
(03:33):
can even enter into panels. And these innovations is kind
of leading the forefront of the survey industry, and that's
what gives us these opportunities. And the pre election polling
for us is the canary and the coal mine. We
get to test out these different methodologies. You know, is
there a difference between a text message poll and an
(03:54):
online poll, or what about a survey that has people
opt in to participate in it. You know, anybody can
come take this survey at some of these groups, how
do those work? And the elections give us a chance
to kind of test out what methods are better, and
then we use that information to do other survey work,
(04:16):
which is a much larger industry. And I think that's
what you're alluding to with some of those other clients,
and that can range from the San Francisco Police Department,
who we currently are just finishing a study for, to
Common Good Index, to different associations. We do a holiday
study on footwear. We do a lot of health communication
(04:39):
on vaccines and bird flu and other areas that traditionally
may have been very expensive to conduct this type of research.
But because technology has evolved and we don't have to
pay operators to call people, we are able to bring
down the cost of some of the data collection, which
(05:01):
gives us really valuable information. And in some areas, obviously,
election polls have value, but some of the areas in
health communication and other market research also has value as well.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
So let me ask you this question, Okay, In the
old days you would rely upon and maybe these were
days even before when you were involved. In the old days,
posters rely upon the white pages in the phone book
and they would they would, that's how they would find
people's numbers. Now, how do you find people's cell phone numbers?
(05:41):
There's no I'm sure there's somewhere that my cell phone
number is listed, but it's not available to you as
a polster, or maybe it is.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
Well, Dan, that too has evolved over so telephones become
the major mode of data collection starting in the nineteen seventies.
And you know at and t let your fingers do
the you know talking, well anyways, the walking, let your
fingers do the walking, and so, uh, you can see,
(06:11):
telephones are there, and polsters were using something called random
digit dialing where they would create root numbers based on
area codes and then you'd have roots and then a
random number. And what happens in random digit dialing is
everybody could be included. So if you're a doctor and
you had an unlisted number, well, random digit dialing would.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
Find that number.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Now, in the era of landlines, and now you got
to remember, you also were calling libraries and hospitals and
other random numbers that you have to be very careful about,
you know, calling and soliciting that process became expensive, so
they moved to using registered voter lists or registered based
(06:56):
sampling back in like the nineteen nineties and into the
the beginning of this of this century, where I know
you think that like you know, you register to vote
and there's your name and your address, but there's a
lot of companies out there that append the data back
to you. So we do have a database of you know,
(07:21):
I think it's well over two hundred and seventy million
points of contact with I think about one hundred and
forty million cell phones, one hundred and thirty million cell phones.
So we've got a large database to pull from. And
that's where so.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
I'm not doing when you're going for cell phone because
more people, more and more people every year have got
rid of the landline and now we're cell phone dependent.
And you're saying that when you want to call someone
that fits my profile, you you you're not random dialing
and saying to the person, well, how old are you,
(08:00):
what's your ethnicity? Are you a Democrat, Republican, unenrolled, et cetera.
You have an idea when you when that number dials, Uh,
who that person is?
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Who's going to pick up that phone?
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
In fact, when you get these texts, when you get
the text message, it's going to say, hi Dan, will
you take the survey? It's personalized and that's how that's
how much we know who's taking it now. To me,
there's an issue with personalizing it too much because there's
you want to be anonymous and confidential. There's the reason
why we have a secret ballot in this country. And
(08:37):
you know, the survey is intended to be anonymous, and
so we sometimes yeah, and to help keep people honest,
and you know, we think about are you comfortable if
somebody calls you up and says, you know, hi Dan?
You know the suspense and you're like, who's Spence? And
(08:57):
how do you know my name? So as to if
you get a text message from Emerson College that says, hey,
you want to take an Emerson College poll. As you mentioned,
a lot of people have heard of the Emerson College
poll and they might be willing to participate and share
their opinions with us for us to be able to
represent public opinion.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
My guest is Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
He is the polling guru if you will, for Emerson
College has done a great job this. I've never really
had a chance to drill down and understand this, so
I'm learning something. I hope some of you are as well.
When I get back, I'm going to tell you an
anonymous text that I got tonight. I don't think it
(09:40):
was directed at me, but you're going to break it
down for me when I explain to see I think
you'll get a kick out of it, and then we
will talk, assuming that you're willing to talk about what
you're seeing in the polls, in your polls and other polls.
As we are now really less than a week away
from November fifth, something that many of us have had
marked on our calendar for years, and now it is.
(10:03):
It's almost here. So I'm excited about it. I want
to talk with Spencer about it, and I hope some
of you might want to call and ask Spencer a
question if you'd like.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Feel free.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The number that we give out it's not my cell
phone number, it's the WBC call line six one seven,
two five four ten thirty six one seven nine three
one ten thirty Spencer. I could talk with you about
this stuff all night. I don't want to have used
your time. Just tell my producer what your time living is.
If if I if we're done at ten thirty and
you've got something you got to do in the.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Morning, please I'll uh if you can.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Stay a little later. I'd love to have you stay
a little later. But that's your call, and just talk
to my producer. The other Dan on the board tonight,
Rob is off, So Dan is our other producer tonight,
be back with your phone calls along with Spencer Kimball,
Emerson University pollster based here in Boston, Massachusetts, but with
a very long reach around the country. Back on Nightside
(10:59):
after this.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
I'm talking with my friend Spencer Kimball. He is a pollster.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
He and Dave Paleo Logus and John Zogby, I think
are the three best posters in the country.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We'll have Dave with us tomorrow night. We had Spencer
with us a week ago. Dave was with us as well.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Spencer's I get this text tonight, okay, and I want
you to interpret.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
I think you're gonna get get it. Get a kick
out of this here ready.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
No, No one should know my cell phone number except
people like you, friends of mine, or family members, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Okay, so I get a text earlier this evening.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Hi Stephen. My name is not Stephen. Okay, my middle
name is not Stephen. Hi Stephen. I'm Matt, a volunteer
with Swing Left. Our call oween phone Bank to call
voters in Wisconsin with special guests including Katherine Hahn, Natasha Rothwell,
(12:10):
Busy Phillips, and Moore will be on Wednesday, October thirtieth
at seven pm Eastern time. We'd love to see you there.
Will you join us?
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Now?
Speaker 2 (12:24):
You're you're more hip than I am, Spencer, but I
have no idea. Who's Katherine Hahn? Do you have an idea?
Speaker 4 (12:32):
No? Unless they're running for office? Not my department. I
have people I work with.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
An actress, Dan telling me?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Dan's telling me an actress? Okay? Dan? What about Natasha Rothwell?
That one? He doesn't know? What about Busy Phillips? Okay?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
So we got Dan the producers one out of three?
So will you join us at rapid recruit dot Org.
I have no idea what that is, but I assume
since it's entitled Swing Left. It's probably not my cup
of tea politically, but here's how I answered this. Okay,
I hope I haven't broken any federal law here, but
(13:13):
your confession is good for the soul. I responded, I'll
go to Wisconsin to help. I have lots of cash
to bring with me.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Out to the Badger State.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
I hope they.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Don't get too excited or something that Steven is going
to actually go there. But I thought to myself, I'm
receiving this is from area Coach six 't eighty one,
which I checked out, which is actually West Virginia. So
there's a phone bank in West Virginia that's called Swing
Left that's going to be calling people in Wisconsin. It's
(13:49):
just the way we communicate these days is fascinating.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
So the question, then, and the reason I told you
this story, is if this had been.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
As survey, it said, Hi, Steven, you know, somehow, some
way this my number is associated with with someone named
Stephen I have known, and by the way, I've had
this phone for a long time. So if this was
a poll, I could answer anything. I could tell them
that I wanted, you know, Trotsky or Lemon or Lenin
(14:19):
to be president, it wouldn't matter. But how tough is
it as a polster whose reputation depends on the accuracy
of the polls you conduct to make sure you know
who you're talking to and that you have some idea
about what their background is.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
Well, you know, that's the challenge and why some folks
question not using live operators, because with a live operator,
you know that you're talking to somebody. You know it's
not a child. You know, you could ask them their
name to verify it, and some posters do that in
these news systems. And where the future is going to
(15:03):
go is within these panels where people have opted in
and they're getting rewarded to take the surveys. We're already
seeing it to some degree today, but in you know
the next three to five years, it'll be even bigger
business in these panels. And in those cases, those folks
you'll already have that demographic data on them. Obviously, they
(15:27):
can still not tell you the truth about their opinions,
or their opinions can also change. You know, you can
wake up happy and you know how things going great,
and by four o'clock you're like, was the tough day?
The opinions change and but with that, we do have
(15:47):
a few ways of testing within the survey of if
somebody is just like flicking through it and not pressing
or randomly you know, answering questions or UH has to make.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Sure, okay, speczer.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Do you over sample so that if you're looking to
get a poll, let's say a national poll of one
thousand legitimate voters, which are a portion between fifty states
and balance between men and women, Republicans, Democrats, independence and
all of that, do you over sample so you'll have
fifteen hundred or you'll have five thousand, and you can
(16:25):
you can sort of prone out the ones that you
think are responsive and.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Legitimate or or can you not do that at this point?
Speaker 4 (16:36):
No, you certainly, you certainly go through that process. You know,
for example, you can see how long it took the
person to take the survey, somebody who took it within
thirty seconds. It raises an eyebrow. Those there's some mechanics
that we can see, you know, behind the curtain that
(16:57):
allows us to know where they are are and other
bits of information there. So there are things. But yes,
because of the way we collect the data, the cost
per collection is fairly low compared to live operator data collection.
So for live operators, hard to throw away data that's
(17:19):
costing maybe thirty five to forty dollars a complete. In
my world that's costing maybe fixed to eight dollars a complete.
So you know, still it hard to throw that away.
But we have a little bit more room. And so
to your point, we do scrub out. Not everybody who
takes the survey has the best of intentions, and we
(17:42):
have those those catches throughout the honey pots throughout the
survey to try to catch those folks.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Do you think that polls today are more accurate, less accurate,
or similar in terms of their accuracy to prior elections? Obviously,
as the technology changes, you'd like to think that the
technology creates more accurate polls. I mean, that's what the
(18:16):
goal is. Obviously.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Do you feel better as these newer, you know, procedures
are now being implemented, adopted and become really you know
part of the equation?
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Oh, yes, right, The bottom line is yes, polling is
getting better. You've got to remember that a survey is
a range of scores. It's not an exact score, and
so the key is using a large enough sample, like
a sample of a thousand people that has a margin
enviuyer of three, which is like a six point spread. Now, historically, yeah,
either you know, three points on either side tow it's
(18:52):
a six point so but historically, like if you go
back to the famous nineteen thirty six George Gallup poll
and literary digest having alf land In beating FDR and
this emerged George Gallup, who had FDR winning that poll
actually falls outside their margin of error. They had the winner,
(19:12):
but they didn't have FDR winning by enough. And nineteen
forty Gallup gets the poll wrong. They actually have Wilkie
I think winning that election. So the polls aren't you
know historically nineteen forty eight. You know, they talk about
the twenty sixteen election and those were some bad polls
(19:35):
they but in forty eight, we're talking about being off
by like seventeen points in some states thirty points. Like
the polling disasters of forty eight were are truly let
all over. Like just imagine that being off across many
many states because there was only two or three polsters
at the time, four polsters. Now there's literally over four
(19:57):
hundred polsters and it's hard to and to make sense
of all of that. But the technology improves and the industry.
Remember we're we're market you know, survey research, market research.
We do polling as uh, you know, kind of an
offshoot to the bigger part of the discipline. So and
(20:18):
it also informs us, as I mentioned earlier, about what
methods and you know work best in the survey field.
By having an election, well.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
It's great because you you can look back on, hopefully,
if not November fifth, November sixth, or November seventh, maybe
over the latest and say, okay, here's what we projected,
here's what it worked out to be. And so look
what I want to do. We've talked theory a lot.
I want to get to the to the big races
at hand.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
Uh and right.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Time, Dann, we're gonna put our audience to sleep talking theory.
They're gonna be not at all.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
No, I gotta tell you something. I'm fascinated by it.
And I get people who call all the time.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
I've never been called by a pollster.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
I don't to mean this is fascinating, Okay, yeah, because
it's great. Well, I really mean that seriously, It's something
that I read the polls, uh, And I'm always trying
to see what can I see? What? What little thing
can I see? I call it a vector? You know what?
What what way is the wind blowing that I can
see ahead of time? Uh? And and that's I'm I'm
(21:25):
sure you know what I'm what I'm referring to when
I when I speak like that. So, uh, if if
folks want to call and ask a question about polling
generally or about the race at hand, uh, they got
to light it up. Six one, seven, two, five, four,
ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
triple eight nine two nine, ten thirty. This again is
your opportunity to talk to a real, live, legitimate pollster.
(21:48):
These poles, by the way, folks, have tremendous impact within
campaigns and within the media at large, because when Emerson
College puts out a poll, it's red. Believe me, it's red.
And when Suffolk puts out a poll, it's red. And
believe me it's red, and it's carried. And there are
a couple of others around the country that are that
(22:09):
are that are important as well. But uh, five point
thirty eight is one that has been very interesting as well.
Uh I I well, we have much to discuss to discuss.
We'll be right back on Nightside with Spencer Kimball. If
you've never been polled, this is your opportunity to actually,
if not Pole, you can even troll a pollster here. Okay,
(22:32):
Spencer Kimball of Emerson, I don't want you to do that.
Back on Nightside right after these few messages and the
news at the bottom of the hour.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Night Side with Dan Ray, I'MBZ Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson college pollster who has
a national reach. At this point, Emerson is recognized, along
with Dave Paleo Logus's group at Suffolk, as a significant,
significant poster on presidential elections and on Senate races. So again, Spencer,
(23:08):
no one's expecting you to call the election. But what
are you seeing in the last few weeks? Do you
think that this election is going to be as close
as everyone would seem to suggest it is. Do you
see any movement to.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Speak of either the vice president or former President Trump?
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Well, yes, that's the exciting week. Next week, this time
we'll be looking at returns and we will have a
much better sense obviously what's going on. But when we
look at you know around the country if we want
to kind of talk around the horn, if we go
out west, we see Arizona leaning more Republican. We'll just
(23:48):
talk presidential politics, but happy to jump into any Senate
But in the presidential level, Arizona there are eleven electoral votes.
There's a state that Biden stood to me. What you're
looking at is like you got to flip a state.
It's like in basketball, you got to win on the
other team's home court before the play. You know, it
becomes a series. So here, Arizona would be a state
(24:11):
where it looks to be a state Trump's can be
able to bring back that was part of his coalition
of twenty sixteen, lost it in twenty twenty by less
than about three tenths of a point. And out there
their major issue is immigration. It's like thirty percent. They're
the only state, really Texas a little high with immigration.
(24:34):
But yeah, so there's a state there that for Trump.
Georgia would be another one for Trump that Biden was
able to take back in twenty twenty by again about
two to three tenths of a point. We'll see if
(24:55):
by if Trump is able to hold that one. He
seems to be getting along well with Governor Kemp, and
we'll see what the ground game looks like in Georgia.
And then North Carolina would be a state for Harris
to take and that would open up a potential Southern
strategy if the Midwest Wall was to collapse and you know,
(25:23):
or if a state or two was to drop, particularly
if you go out to like Wisconsin. The polling is
generally trending towards Trump out there. Harris had a three
to four point lead. Historically, Wisconsin's been the toughest state
out of the seven for the Polsters. We were off
the most in Wisconsin over the last two cycles and
(25:47):
not really great at improvement. I wish we have done better.
Hopefully this cycle we do and right now we have
it tied leaning towards Trump, so that would be a
pickup state as well. And then you got your Pennsylvania
and Michigan vote looking close. But the general takeaway is
(26:12):
Trump is doing better with men in Harris is generally
doing about the same with women as Biden did with women,
and that kind of will cut across race and ethnicity,
and she does do better than Biden with younger voters,
but we have not seen those folks come to the polls.
(26:35):
So in this early voting, you'll notice that some of
the sites that monitor it, most of the early vote
is older vote. It's very disproportionate towards those over fifty.
And so we'll see if the Democrat young vote comes
out on election day and is able to put her
over the top in some of these key swing states.
(26:58):
But to remember some of these points that I'm talking about,
you know, it's like one eighty thousand votes in Pennsylvania
as a point, so you got to you got to
convince eighty thousand people to shift over if you're up
a point there. So those are you know, points aren't
always the same based on the population of each state.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
So this is not twenty twenty, but it is. Trump
has to Trump won those three states the Blue Wall Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania. That's what elected him in twenty sixteen. So
he has to really accomplish, if not all of those states,
(27:42):
at least one of them at a minimum, and maybe
a couple. Because it's every every year is a little different.
I mean, people understand the middle of the country's red,
the coast tend to be blue. We get that, but
This is truly still close a call. Either one of
these candidates could win, okay, by a narrow margin. Does
(28:05):
either have the potential of winning by a decisive margin.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
Well, first year earlier point, Trump could lose that blue
wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, take back Georgia, Arizona, and
then flip Nevada in New Hampshire and he wins the presidency.
So there's different pathways with polls that are within the
poll's margin of error. Now it looked like there's a
(28:34):
better chance for Trump to have a blowout than for
Harris to have a blowout. And I say that based
on the popular vote. Generally, the conventional wisdom is if
the Republicans, if you know, the Republicans win the popular
vote like bushed it in two thousand and four, the
last Republican to do that. Since I think eighty eight,
(28:58):
the Republicans will win. And it looks on the popular
vote that it could go in either direction. But this
selection is a little bit different in that Harris hasn't
had a full year year and a half campaigning. It's
really only been a couple of months, and so she's
kind of doing okay. Like in our Massachusetts fault. She's
(29:21):
up by twenty three points, which is a solid lead,
but Biden won the state by about thirty three thirty
four points, so there is some melt that we're seeing
same thing in New York. And then we see a
little bit of a gains for Trump in Florida and Texas.
So we're seeing this rising tide, you know, in some
(29:44):
places for Trump and he's a little dropping, but in
the swing states, those are holding more steady because that's
where the money's being spent and the campaigns are being organized.
Speaker 6 (29:54):
Yeah, ironically, Harris has much more money available right now.
I mean, she's she's swimming in the money. Trump is
not swimming in the money, at least in the political money.
What about Minnesota. I know that there's been some slippage
in Minnesota for the Democrats, even though Waltz is in
the ballot.
Speaker 4 (30:12):
Yeah, to me, that would be hard to imagine Minnesota
being in play with Walls on the ballot. It was
kind of like Tim Kane being in Virginia, and you
know that state got more competitive in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 5 (30:25):
We'll see if.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
To me, Walls needs to give you Wisconsin if you're
the Democrat because that's your neighboring state. He's the governor
of Minnesota. He should be able to give you Wisconsin.
So Wisconsin's really a toss up, probably leaning towards Trump.
But Minnesota, if that's even in play now, the Democrats
have a real problem because those should in Minnesota, Virginia,
(30:49):
New Hampshire. Some folks think New Mexico those should not be.
But New Mexico I don't think is really swinging at all.
Speaker 7 (30:59):
But the other I thought, I thought, I thought I
said some pole that said that Minnesota, uh, at some
point recently was a lot tighter than anyone would have expected,
which caused me.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
To say whether yesterday three points.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Yeah, and and whether or not that is evidence that
that maybe Harris made a mistake in not picking the
government of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Well right before we get, you know, too far ahead
of the obituary.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
No, no, I'm not, I'm not trying to get to
the obituary. I'm just saying, yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
Go ahead, she's uh, you know, Walls, you know, we'll
see how it plays out. But Walls did provide some
impact at the at the start of the race. I
would say, I think the biggest criticism of him has
been his debate performance, for better or worse, because it
(31:54):
wasn't able to keep the Republicans on defense from where
Trump was even know, if you look at the polling
between what September the first debate September tenth, and then
prior to that October.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
October VP, Yeah, it was October first.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
Percent said that Harris won the debate. But as you
look at the ballot test question over those three and
a half weeks, three weeks, Trump actually gained ground. So
it was a very strange ish, you know, situation where
was turning it. Yes, all right, I got it.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
I gotta grab a commercial.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
I got a couple of calls you want to get to,
and I think you've given me a sense of where
we are a week out. That doesn't mean that's where
we will be a week from now. But I'm looking
at a lot of polls and I'm seeing some of
the same trends that that you're seeing, which in the
(32:55):
end might not make a huge difference, or in the
end they might be the proverbial care canaries in the
coal mine. We'll be back on Night Side with Spencer Kimball.
Emerson College. Emerson College poster coming right back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
Now back to Dan Way live from the Window World
Nice Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
With me Is Emerson, Poster, Spencer, Kimball, Spencer, let's get
a couple of callers in here. We'll talk to the
real people. Let me go to Glenn in Brighton. Glenn,
you were next on Nice Side with Spencer. Kimball had
a question or comment for Spencer.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
Glenn, Well, kind of both. I told you to producer
that I'd be a nice person because this sticks in
my c I wish that they neither band postering or
at least have what do not posted me with because
at the end of the day, I don't think it's
anybody's business or I vote for unless you, my friend,
(33:49):
you have.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
To answer the polls. Glenn. You know you don't have
to answer me.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
I know, and when I do, I lie.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
Okay, Well, fine, say how to Glenn, Spencer.
Speaker 5 (34:01):
I'm Glenn.
Speaker 4 (34:02):
We did we appreciate you know, I mean, you're sharing
whatever opinions, but you know we're not looking to to
influence elections. You know, we're not looking to influence. We're
looking just to represent and be able to share with
public opinion. Not just on elections, but on the issues
of the day, in some of the policies that people
(34:23):
are talking about. So it's important that you know, you
take if you have the opportunity to participate in a
legitimate poll or survey, that you do share your opinion
if you want that opinion to be represented in in
these surveys, because they do have an impact on policy,
they have an impact on to work on, and that's
where you know, it's affording to participate.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
That way. Oh, I'm sorry. I don't want to be
influenced by the Boss to go over the Boss and
the Herald or how we would or Taylor Swift or
any of them.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
You know what I mean, Glenn, You don't have.
Speaker 5 (35:01):
To be I think for myself. That's just me.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
That's that you do that, Glenn.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
So congratulations, you know, I mean one Glenn, I asked
you what's your most important issue? And I get that
opinion from a thousand people. It lets us know, like
housing affordability is a really important issue for voters.
Speaker 5 (35:20):
Mooted.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
We know that, but you know that's for you know,
that's what that's what we try to learn and then
hopefully resolve, you know, solve some of the problems that
we have in mind.
Speaker 5 (35:31):
Mine's who week immigration.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
All right, great, Glenn, I'm gonna let you go because
I think that probably we've that never the Twains, you'll
meet here.
Speaker 3 (35:38):
Thanks Glenn.
Speaker 5 (35:39):
I just wanted to say some click go ahead, be quick.
All right? Yeah, No, I did get a woman post
her and I could tell that she was actually her
boss called me the next day and apologized. She said,
you know, she started out, are you white? I should
get are you other? Are you? And I said, all right,
I'll tell you the truth. I'm a white, angle sex
and Protestant male. I'm a Trump supporter, and you know
(36:02):
I don't a poet. I want I want my country back.
And she goes, that's on you, and I said, well,
this is on you, and I hung up on her.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Okay, yeah, Solen, appreciate the experience.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
I can understand. Uh, I know you pretty well. And again,
you don't have to participate with these folks. It's as
simple as that. As I told you tonight, I sent
the text back to someone said I'll see in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
I'll bring the cash.
Speaker 5 (36:27):
You know.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
I was having fun, all right, Thanks, Thanks Glenn. Jack
down to the Kpayjack. Next to a nice eye was
Spencer Kimball of Emerson University.
Speaker 8 (36:35):
Go ahead, Jack, Thanks guys. I called a couple of
weeks ago and I said that the politics of today
is the ultimate high tech Brendon circus. Who you know
these candidates, this is Bretton's circus. On's who's really running
the show is deep under the deep state. They're underground anyway.
(37:00):
But I want to talk about polling. You know, it
seems to me, you know, you're pulling a person, an event,
a person. What about the depth of the poll. In
other words, you present a pole, but the depth of
(37:23):
the pole, it's really are It's actually a three dimensional
matrix of age and this is what you look at age, sex, location,
all all the dynamic data that goes into into what
with a pole? And uh, how do we how can
(37:43):
we more present the dimensional aspects of a poll rather
than just coming out with the statement.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
Spencer's going to answer your question right now? Go ahead, Spencer.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Well, yeah, so the horse phrase is where it gets.
Everybody's a tent and they want the ballot test question
and that's what drives the media. But it's that underlying
data and when we look at this race for examples,
what it's.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
Called the cross tabs, correct Spencer.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
Yes, the cross tabs, the cross tabs, and so what.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
You explained to Jack what you mean by that? Please?
Speaker 4 (38:20):
And yeah, so Jack, it's a great question. I know
you're familiar, but for the rest of the audience out
there who might not be as familiar, we have different
variables like gender, or age, or education, and we want
to know how some of those different variables demographics impact
(38:41):
who they're going to vote for or what issues are
most important to them. And what we do is we
can take a look by comparing instead of the whole
sample of a thousand people, we're looking at a subset
of let's say five hundred men or five hundred women,
and from that we can learn, for example, that Donald
(39:05):
Trump is doing better with men this cycle than he
did in twenty twenty, and women are about the same
with Harris than they were with Biden. And that difference
is what's driving the polls and why you're seeing a
three to four point tightening from what we saw in
(39:25):
twenty twenty. And that's all because we have the cross
stabs to look at that data and better understand what's
driving these changes in attitude and what groups are driving it.
And now we like to kind of pull back curtain,
be open from what normal people don't see because we
(39:46):
use this in market research to help sell candy bars
and cars and other products and services by better understanding
our audience ahead of time and then using that information
for persuasion. But here we're just trying to gauge public
opinion on those issues of policy or candidates.
Speaker 2 (40:07):
Gentlemen, I gotta jump in, Jack. We're flat out a
time boy. I wish you called early. It was a
great question, and Spencer, that's a great thanks Jack, Spencer,
that's a great answer. Spencer, Thanks so much for your time.
I know it's the busy season. I can't tell you
how much I value your friendship and your work. And
we will be watching very closely between now and Tuesday,
and if you see anything that's interesting that you want
(40:28):
to share with us any night, you got the private numbers, Okay.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
We'll send out a text. Thanks Dan, Thanks.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
So much, Thanks so much, Spencer, Kimball. Let's continue to
talk about polls. We may agree or disagree on this,
but i'd like to know your thoughts on polls. I
think they're invaluable. And I tell you why I think
they're going to be invaluable this time. Back on Night's side,
right after the eleven o'clock news
Popular Podcasts
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com