Andrew Curtayne: Milford Asset Management expert on the market reactions to the Israel-Iran conflict

The conflict between Israel and Iran is continuing on - and it's sparked concerns among investors.

US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's unconditional surrender, as he weighs up whether to join Israel's targeting of nuclear sites.

Milford Asset Management expert Andrew Curtayne explains the impact of the conflict.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Times for Milford Asset Management. Andrew Kurtain, Hello, Andrew.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
I love it well, thank you.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
So how the global markets reacting to this conflict between
Israel and Iran.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
The markets have really shrugged it off. We only seen
equity markets come off very marginally. The US dot markets
down around about one percent since the conflict began last Friday.
So Marcus really telling you that I think this conflict
at the moment's pretty contained a Israel in Iran and
they're not getting too spooked about it. We have seen
a little bit of movement to safety. Some investors have

(00:47):
been buying gold golds up to a three percent since
the conflict started. But really where the most action has
been is in price is up about sixteen percent since
the conflict started, and go back and started June it's
up about twenty three percent. Now, this sort of makes
sense because Iran producers around about three percent of the
world's wild uptop, which found like a lot, but in

(01:09):
a commodity like oil, we even sort of a one
percent destruction to oil production can have quite a significant
impact on price.

Speaker 2 (01:17):
Do you think it'll go higher?

Speaker 3 (01:18):
Yet, it's hard to tell. What would send the price
higher would be direct attacks into major oil infrastructure. We
haven't seen that. There's been a few a few sort
of missiles that have hit some smaller pieces of infrastructure,
but we haven't seen anything that is really going to
disrupt kind of million barrel type levels of production. What

(01:40):
could happen if things escalators iranicize to say, attack some
oil assets in Saudi Arabia, which produces round about nine
attempercent of the world's oil, or in the major escalation,
then they can shut up or start attacking cruise ships
in Australa for most, which is to the south side
of Iran, which at a round about twenty percent of
the world's oil passes through this. But I sort of

(02:02):
put that as an unlikely scenario. I think if I
run to this would really attagonize the need to remember
that Trump wants lower oil prices is not higher. So
if you want a certain way to bring you with
them to the war, then you could go to go
to other technical early Arabian oil accent.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Very good point. Now, given everything that's going on, why
do you think it is that most global stock markets
have recovered from the low that we saw in April.

Speaker 3 (02:25):
Well, with a conflict in Middle East, it's really only
impacting right now the countries that are involved. It's not
really having an impact on the economic outlook for the US,
for Europe, when New Zealand, Australia and so sheer markets
really care about what and economies where their companies primarily operate,
and it's the economic growth in these companies and these

(02:46):
economies are signed, and the profit growth in the companies
in these countries will also be fined. And so that's
what I'm just is a t reason this is sort
of a relatively contained conflict for now. And if you
sort of stepped back a couple of months since the
equity markets bot on back in April. Since then, we've
had quite positive new bond tariffs with the delays on

(03:07):
all the pause to them to go. Deals around the
world between Trump and the major nations also have a
slightly more optimistic look on the global macro outlook. And
also the sort of artificial intelligence trade which has been
a key theme over over the last few years, has
really come back with the theory and that is sending
a lot of stock slide, Microsoft, Navidier, Oracle back to

(03:29):
all time highs.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
Yeah, Andrew, Thanks very much. Andrew Kutaine, Milford Asset Management.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
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