Recent data shows there were 27,850 fewer jobs in New Zealand in June compared to the year before, and young Kiwis are being hit hard by a tightening labour market.
Over 12,000 of those lost jobs came from the construction sector, manufacturing lost 5850 jobs, professional, scientific and technical services lost 5150 jobs and admin and support services lost 4860 jobs.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen explains what's behind this change.
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk zed be follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Now.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
There were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in June
compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of those
lost jobs came from the construction sector. Almost six thousand
were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs. Brad
Olsen's Infametrics principal economist.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hey, Brad, Good evening.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Look, I mean, you know, lost jobs, has lost jobs,
and it's never great. But is this as bad as
expected or is it worse or not and not as bad?
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy
has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,
But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for
quite a few months. You look back at what we've
seen over the last couple and job numbers have been
down at this level or if not even worse of
an annual decline. That's not to say that things are
easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on
(01:02):
a more month to month basis that job numbers in
New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,
some months down, but really no real trend. And I
think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's
been a big job drop in jobs, but people are
now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting
to see some of those the economic rev up that's
being talked about, where are the jobs are we're starting
(01:23):
to see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's
just not really any evidence. In the month of June
a very slight zero point one percent increase in the
seasonally adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in
so far, there's just no evidence that we're seeing a
pick up quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though,
I think we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so,
(01:46):
over the next couple of months at least, I don't
think it would start to deteriorate all that much. Further,
we're still expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate
will peak ever so slightly higher than where it was
at the start of this year around five point three
percent over the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're
starting to see in some areas actually a bit of
growth for the likes of the South Island job numbers
(02:07):
are now up ever so slightly on where they were
a year ago. It's just that North Island job figures
are down quite heavily, and so I think that does
start to highlight that, yes, there are some areas that
are starting to see a slow pick up the primary sector.
Are you seeing some more jobs coming through in the
likes of finance, health, education, But other big job losses,
like in construction and manufacturing, professional professional services, none of
(02:32):
those picking up at anytime soon. And I think that's
the challenge, is that some of those big areas that
normally do take on a lot of jobs just no
real new opportunities starting to show through. So tough out
there still for many.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, totally. I mean in construction we obviously expected to
pick up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it
to pick up or have we kind of have we
got to the point now where most of the stuff
that we've lost will never be replaced.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course
have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,
plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of
those roles into the future. So potentially there's not quite
as much up, but also in some of those more
niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas. Yes, I think New
Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other
way around. I mean, likes of construction. I'm not sure
(03:18):
if those numbers necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes,
the government's doing more infrastructure investment and similar but we're
not about to crash interest rates down to a level
that would stimulate the highest building since the nineteen seventies.
That's where we were a couple of years ago. That's
why we've had such a job loss because we added
so many before. Long story short, we're just trying to
find that Goldilock zone for the economy at the moment,
(03:38):
and that is a very very tough process when you're
seeing these numbers of job losses coming through.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Fair enough, now, Brad, did I see you on the
news as being in China? Indeed, indeed, I am, is
this a holiday? I mean, what am I asking?
Speaker 1 (03:51):
You?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are
you doing in China?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
It's a holiday of sorts hither. I mean, I'm just
sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
It.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's
some pretty big opportunities. So having a bit of a
look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer
trends and the fact that there's just so many new
products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort
of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,
cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a
lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment, but
(04:21):
over in China they're paying a lot more for what
we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy
export market occurring.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest
new product you've seen?
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been
some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,
well now they've edited in a few extra flavors into them,
you know, to sort of meet the market over here.
I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there
was one other of forgotten. But it's neat because you're
seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.
(04:53):
New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of
taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local
customers want and then sort of churning them out or
working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's
been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything
moves so so fast here. The tech and innovation is
just hectic.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Good stuff. Brad, Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.
That's Brad Olson, Infametrics, principle economist.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
For more from news Talks at b listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk zed be follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Now.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
There were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in June
compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of those
lost jobs came from the construction sector. Almost six thousand
were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs. Brad
Olsen's Infametrics principal economist.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hey, Brad, Good evening.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Look, I mean, you know, lost jobs, has lost jobs,
and it's never great. But is this as bad as
expected or is it worse or not and not as bad?
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy
has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,
But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for
quite a few months. You look back at what we've
seen over the last couple and job numbers have been
down at this level or if not even worse of
an annual decline. That's not to say that things are
easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on
(01:02):
a more month to month basis that job numbers in
New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,
some months down, but really no real trend. And I
think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's
been a big job drop in jobs, but people are
now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting
to see some of those the economic rev up that's
being talked about, where are the jobs are we're starting
(01:23):
to see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's
just not really any evidence. In the month of June
a very slight zero point one percent increase in the
seasonally adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in
so far, there's just no evidence that we're seeing a
pick up quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though,
I think we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so,
(01:46):
over the next couple of months at least, I don't
think it would start to deteriorate all that much. Further,
we're still expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate
will peak ever so slightly higher than where it was
at the start of this year around five point three
percent over the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're
starting to see in some areas actually a bit of
growth for the likes of the South Island job numbers
(02:07):
are now up ever so slightly on where they were
a year ago. It's just that North Island job figures
are down quite heavily, and so I think that does
start to highlight that, yes, there are some areas that
are starting to see a slow pick up the primary sector.
Are you seeing some more jobs coming through in the
likes of finance, health, education, But other big job losses,
like in construction and manufacturing, professional professional services, none of
(02:32):
those picking up at anytime soon. And I think that's
the challenge, is that some of those big areas that
normally do take on a lot of jobs just no
real new opportunities starting to show through. So tough out
there still for many.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, totally. I mean in construction we obviously expected to
pick up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it
to pick up or have we kind of have we
got to the point now where most of the stuff
that we've lost will never be replaced.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course
have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,
plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of
those roles into the future. So potentially there's not quite
as much up, but also in some of those more
niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas. Yes, I think New
Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other
way around. I mean, likes of construction. I'm not sure
(03:18):
if those numbers necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes,
the government's doing more infrastructure investment and similar but we're
not about to crash interest rates down to a level
that would stimulate the highest building since the nineteen seventies.
That's where we were a couple of years ago. That's
why we've had such a job loss because we added
so many before. Long story short, we're just trying to
find that Goldilock zone for the economy at the moment,
(03:38):
and that is a very very tough process when you're
seeing these numbers of job losses coming through.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Fair enough, now, Brad, did I see you on the
news as being in China? Indeed, indeed, I am, is
this a holiday? I mean, what am I asking?
Speaker 1 (03:51):
You?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are
you doing in China?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
It's a holiday of sorts hither. I mean, I'm just
sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
It.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's
some pretty big opportunities. So having a bit of a
look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer
trends and the fact that there's just so many new
products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort
of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,
cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a
lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment, but
(04:21):
over in China they're paying a lot more for what
we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy
export market occurring.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest
new product you've seen?
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been
some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,
well now they've edited in a few extra flavors into them,
you know, to sort of meet the market over here.
I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there
was one other of forgotten. But it's neat because you're
seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.
(04:53):
New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of
taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local
customers want and then sort of churning them out or
working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's
been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything
moves so so fast here. The tech and innovation is
just hectic.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Good stuff. Brad, Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.
That's Brad Olson, Infametrics, principle economist.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
For more from news Talks at b listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
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