December 17, 2025 • 4 mins
New Zealand's back on the road to financial recovery, according to new reports.
The latest Stats NZ data shows the economy contracted 0.5 percent in the year to September.
But it's grown 1.1 percent - faster than expected - in the last quarter.
Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen says we're effectively returning to where we once were.
"Momentum is starting to build, but it's building from a weak spot. So we're certainly not saying that the economy is completely back, but it is on a better track."
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed B.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Quarter three GDP up one point one percent. Nikola Willis
is cracking the champagne a little early for Christmas. A
huge turnaround from the second quarter when the economy shrank
one percent. Looking at the past year, we were actually
a bit smaller, point four percent smaller than in the
year two September twenty four. Brad olsin Informetrics principal economist
(00:36):
is with me tonight, Brad, Good evening, Good evening. Quite
a turnaround there.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It was quite a turnaround. But you're right that realistically
the economy is still not necessarily been growing by leaps
and bounds. It's more tried to fill in the hole
that we had earlier this year. There was a little
bit more activity at the start of the year, of course,
a bit more of a cratering in the second quarter,
and then abouts back in September. So that's good and
I think probably the most pleasing part of that result,
(01:03):
and I don't want to overreg it, but you did
see that fourteen of the sixteen measured industries that step
since ZID looks at did see an improvement, so it
was a bit more broad based over all of the figures,
which is encouraging. You know, you were seeing a lift
in the likes of manufacturing, you were seeing more coming
through from professional and business services, so that was encouraging.
That Again, momentum is starting to build, but it's building
(01:24):
from a weak spot. So we're certainly not saying that,
you know, the economy is completely back, but it is
on a better track.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
And that's the point important point to make, isn't it
that while the numbers, if you look at the number
as a nominal figure, we're growing three times as fast
in this quarter than as the Australians. We're growing as
fast as China in this quarter. But it won't feel
like that because we're coming off a very low base,
well exactly.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And look if you look at you know, the Australian
figures are compared to where we were you know, last time,
so you know New Zealand was down you know, one percent,
whereas the Australians they were still growing and so if
you sort of look at them all together, they grew
i think point six percent on the second quarter. We
were down one percent we've then come back one point
(02:10):
one percent. In this cord it they were up point four.
So you add them together, we're basically in a pretty
similar position. We just had to go through a world
of pain to sort of get there where they've had
sort of more consistent growth. And that's probably the piece
we're looking for a lot more next year, is can
we just get a bit more consistency. Everyone's asking, of course,
for better economic numbers, and yes, that's totally true, but
you also need a bit more of that consistency before
(02:32):
businesses and households really buy into an economic recovery and say, look,
it's actually happening, happening, I can plan my life around it,
rather than everyone going well, look it was good now,
but then it might sort of pull back and then
it might be better in the future. That sort of
stop start element of the economy is not helpful going forward,
and so these figures, being broad based, do support a
little bit more of that uptick as we head through
(02:52):
into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Where do we need to worry too much about fon
Terra downgrading, it cutting its forecast. I mean, we know
the price has been dropping on the global dairy trade options,
But do we need to be worried about the fact
that this is coming down? Does that affect the growth
for next year?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Look, it doesn't make it quite as easy to make
that sort of same growth profile. But equally, look this
has been signaled when Fontira came out with their first
price for the year, they deliberately had it a bit
more open and sort of signaled that look of things
turned around, then we could be getting back to these
sort of levels. It's still a decent payout. I mean,
for goodness sake, it's still over nine bucks. That's a
(03:26):
good number, but it does start to again just trim
it a back a bit. And we know that the
primary sector, although they have had more money in recent
times coming through, they haven't necessarily spent it straight away.
So look, you're still seeing some good recovery in parts
of provincial and rural New Zealand. But I think it
just goes to show that we sort of can't bank
on any one bit being the silver bullet for economic
(03:46):
growth in the next year. It does have to be
a little bit more across the board, and those global shops,
those global factors that we can't control at home are
still things that we're going to have to watch out for.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Thank you Brad brad Olson and for metrics. They by
the way, the Fonterra price forecast cut from nine p
fifty down to nine dollars their midpoint. And as I said,
the global dairy trade options have been coming. But if
you look, prices down for since the May peak are
down a quarter and Fonterra's price now down since the
(04:18):
start of the season ten percent, and supply obviously has
been going up. What does it do to on farm costs,
on farm profits. We'll talk to Jamie mckaye, host of
the Country After Six on that later.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
For more from News Talk sed B. Listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed B.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Quarter three GDP up one point one percent. Nikola Willis
is cracking the champagne a little early for Christmas. A
huge turnaround from the second quarter when the economy shrank
one percent. Looking at the past year, we were actually
a bit smaller, point four percent smaller than in the
year two September twenty four. Brad olsin Informetrics principal economist
(00:36):
is with me tonight, Brad, Good evening, Good evening. Quite
a turnaround there.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It was quite a turnaround. But you're right that realistically
the economy is still not necessarily been growing by leaps
and bounds. It's more tried to fill in the hole
that we had earlier this year. There was a little
bit more activity at the start of the year, of course,
a bit more of a cratering in the second quarter,
and then abouts back in September. So that's good and
I think probably the most pleasing part of that result,
(01:03):
and I don't want to overreg it, but you did
see that fourteen of the sixteen measured industries that step
since ZID looks at did see an improvement, so it
was a bit more broad based over all of the figures,
which is encouraging. You know, you were seeing a lift
in the likes of manufacturing, you were seeing more coming
through from professional and business services, so that was encouraging.
That Again, momentum is starting to build, but it's building
(01:24):
from a weak spot. So we're certainly not saying that,
you know, the economy is completely back, but it is
on a better track.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
And that's the point important point to make, isn't it
that while the numbers, if you look at the number
as a nominal figure, we're growing three times as fast
in this quarter than as the Australians. We're growing as
fast as China in this quarter. But it won't feel
like that because we're coming off a very low base,
well exactly.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And look if you look at you know, the Australian
figures are compared to where we were you know, last time,
so you know New Zealand was down you know, one percent,
whereas the Australians they were still growing and so if
you sort of look at them all together, they grew
i think point six percent on the second quarter. We
were down one percent we've then come back one point
(02:10):
one percent. In this cord it they were up point four.
So you add them together, we're basically in a pretty
similar position. We just had to go through a world
of pain to sort of get there where they've had
sort of more consistent growth. And that's probably the piece
we're looking for a lot more next year, is can
we just get a bit more consistency. Everyone's asking, of course,
for better economic numbers, and yes, that's totally true, but
you also need a bit more of that consistency before
(02:32):
businesses and households really buy into an economic recovery and say, look,
it's actually happening, happening, I can plan my life around it,
rather than everyone going well, look it was good now,
but then it might sort of pull back and then
it might be better in the future. That sort of
stop start element of the economy is not helpful going forward,
and so these figures, being broad based, do support a
little bit more of that uptick as we head through
(02:52):
into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Where do we need to worry too much about fon
Terra downgrading, it cutting its forecast. I mean, we know
the price has been dropping on the global dairy trade options,
But do we need to be worried about the fact
that this is coming down? Does that affect the growth
for next year?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Look, it doesn't make it quite as easy to make
that sort of same growth profile. But equally, look this
has been signaled when Fontira came out with their first
price for the year, they deliberately had it a bit
more open and sort of signaled that look of things
turned around, then we could be getting back to these
sort of levels. It's still a decent payout. I mean,
for goodness sake, it's still over nine bucks. That's a
(03:26):
good number, but it does start to again just trim
it a back a bit. And we know that the
primary sector, although they have had more money in recent
times coming through, they haven't necessarily spent it straight away.
So look, you're still seeing some good recovery in parts
of provincial and rural New Zealand. But I think it
just goes to show that we sort of can't bank
on any one bit being the silver bullet for economic
(03:46):
growth in the next year. It does have to be
a little bit more across the board, and those global shops,
those global factors that we can't control at home are
still things that we're going to have to watch out for.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Thank you Brad brad Olson and for metrics. They by
the way, the Fonterra price forecast cut from nine p
fifty down to nine dollars their midpoint. And as I said,
the global dairy trade options have been coming. But if
you look, prices down for since the May peak are
down a quarter and Fonterra's price now down since the
(04:18):
start of the season ten percent, and supply obviously has
been going up. What does it do to on farm costs,
on farm profits. We'll talk to Jamie mckaye, host of
the Country After Six on that later.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
For more from News Talk sed B. Listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Bobby Bones Show
Listen to 'The Bobby Bones Show' by downloading the daily full replay.