Dan Schnur: University of California political analyst on doing business in Trump's America

University of California professor and political analyst Dan Schnur talks to Heather du Plessis-Allan on the realities of doing international trade with the US in Trump's America.

He explained that leaders must remember that Trump is first-and-foremost a businessman.

"The city of San Francisco ... when they were worried that the Trump administration was going to send the Department of Homeland Security into their streets, they didn't deploy their congressional delegation. They sent business leaders."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Now. Obviously been a hell of a year for anyone
trying to do business with the US. Donald Trump's Bizuoka
trade tariffs are announced in April, and then we've been
dealing with a fallout and the uncertainty ever since. Now
from tomorrow, New Zealand and US business leaders and diplomats
will get together for the US Business Summit. Professor Dan
Schneer from the University of California will give the keynote
speech on how to navigate Trump's America. Let's have a chat,

(00:37):
dam Hi, Dan.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
The pleasure is all mine. Now, what is your number
one tip for how to navigate Trump's America?

Speaker 3 (00:45):
I think the most important thing for any country's leaders,
both political and business leaders, to understand is that Donald Trump,
of course worked in the private sector for many, many
years before he ever ran for office. So business leaders,
while they have an impact with any US politician, are
going to have an even greater impact with Trump. Trump

(01:06):
and his administration, He'll pay attention to the politicians, He'll
pay a lot more attention to the nation's business leaders.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
So a delegation. I can think the South Africans did that,
didn't they where they rolled up with the president, but
then they had all of these They had a golfer
and they had business leaders. That's the approach to take.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
Well, and it's not only for foreign countries. We're seeing
this within the US. The city of San Francisco, which
may be the most progressive, left leaning city in the
United States of America, when they were worried that Trump,
the Trump administration was going to send the Department of
Homeland Security into their streets, they didn't deploy their congressional delegation.
They sent business leaders. So the CEOs of some of

(01:45):
the largest tech companies in northern California contacted the White
House and they were able to achieve a much more
amenable solution than a lot of other cities around the
country did.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Okay, Now, obviously, I mean that's a fantastic idea, but
obviously there is political points to be scored also for
political leaders to be seen having a meeting with Donald Trump.
So if you had to send your prime ministerroyal president,
do you reckon you take the the Keystama approach of fawning,
or do you take the Macron approach of just going
and being a big guy too.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
Well, mccron basically hit some pretty fraud territory when he
tried the more frontal approach, and ultimately it worked out
for him because when push came to shove, Trump respected
him for pushing back more forcefully. But I'll say this,
I think you have an advantage here. If you look
at the Five Eyes country, you are the only one
with a center right leader. You're the only one with

(02:38):
a leader who both comes from the private sector and
who has center right political credentials. And so I feel
like he is uniquely positioned among these five countries to
have a conversation with Trump. Now I realized the first
time they talked it was about hair ITH's isn't the
best way to get started. But I think it's the
kind of relationship that can be built on in a
way that many other international leaders have not been able

(03:00):
to do.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
All Right, so he needs to get some feist time
with Trump, doesn't he.

Speaker 3 (03:03):
No question about it. Yeah, here's the thing to remember
about Trump. He is the first US president ever to
not have served in prior political office and have never
been in the military, which means he's the only US
president ever who did not prepare for being president by
being part of a team. He is an individual actor.
He talks to people one on one and very quickly

(03:24):
comes to a conclusion about whether he respects them or not.
And I really do feel like there's a potential for
a very productive relationship here between two business leaders turned politicos.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
Okay, so what's the beast we can expect though, because
at the moment we seem to be sort of just
coppying the base level of tariffs that we're not in
a favored position, nor are we in an unfavored position,
which is right in the middle of the pack. What
could we expect as a best case scenario?

Speaker 3 (03:51):
Well, Trump, more than anything, whether you see it as
a compliment or a criticism, is an extremely transactional president.
I think for this country's leaders to able to explain
how he Trump and how his country benefits from the
relationship is the best way to catch is the best
way to catch his attention. At this point, Trump is

(04:12):
beginning to realize the downside of the tariffs. As I
know you and many of your listeners know he's pulled
back on some of the tariffs on food products in
order to try to address inflation in the United States,
and I think impressing upon him how a better relationship
on this front can be of help to him, that's

(04:36):
probably the best way to do.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
We go really personal. Do we say, hey, listen, if
you let our beef in at a like no tariff,
you're gonna have a fantastic burger from McDonald's.

Speaker 3 (04:45):
I would go almost that personal. Maybe you throw that,
maybe you throw in McDonald's at the end. Yeah, but
you say you keep on this current trajectory, and the
people who are angriest with you about giving up on
the tariffs are going to be grateful for you for
confronting inflation head on.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
Yeah, Dan, thank you so much. Is really interesting stuff
are really really interesting tips Professor Den Shnewer, political analyst
at the University of California.

Speaker 1 (05:08):
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