Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Zespri releasing their forecast for the 2025/26 season

Zespri has issued its November forecast for the 2025/26 kiwifruit season, and it's predicting some solid results.

At a per-hectare level, record returns are currently projected across all categories.

The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talk ZEDB. Follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Jamie McKay Country Hosters with us Lo Jamie gooda heather
and that fifty six cent dollars obviously helping exporters in
this country, including zespri. How's the forecast looking for them? Well,
they've just released their November forecast, and the per tray
returns for all fruit groups from the latest forecast are

(00:38):
up from the August one look at and these are
telephone book numbers sort of at a per hectare level.
Record returns in our forecast for all fruit groups of
zespri or key we fruit, for example, a hectare and
you need to own one of these. Heather of sun
gold will return you somewhere between one hundred and seventy

(01:00):
nine and one hundred and eighty six thousand dollars for
hect here. That's a fantastic return. I caught up with
the chief executive of Zesbury, Jason to Break in Japan
early today on my show. So Zesbury's got a record
crop of two hundred and fifteen million trays. They've found
a home for it right around the world. They've got

(01:20):
really strong demand in Europe and North America, and North
America even better now that Trump's dropped as tariffs. They've
also had a favorable exchange rate, as we mentioned, fifty
six US since and Zesbury will release its final forecast
for the twenty five twenty six season in February. But

(01:41):
look like a lot of the primary sector, it's an
industry on a high at the moment. Yeah, what's going
on with the dairy farmers. Well, it's interesting because we
know we're hearing record returns for Zesbury or for Kiwi
fruit red meats at an all time high. Dairy the
jury's out a wee bit because you know what happens

(02:03):
when the price gets as high as it has ten
bucks and more, the tap gets turned on right around
the world. And even Kiwi farmers themselves are guilty. And
I don't blame them at all. So, you know, like
dairy farmings like paint by numbers in some ways, you
put stuff in the front end of a cow and

(02:23):
out the back end or near the back end, comes
to milk. So when you've got a ten dollar payout,
you can afford to supplementary feed them. And farmers did
go chasing the high payout at the end of last season,
and that's almost working against them now. So what we've
seen with the GDT auction last night or on Tuesday night,
should I say seventh consecutive drop, we're at a new

(02:47):
fifteen month low. ASB senior economist Chris Tennant Brown said,
the early signs were that milk production would be very
strong this season. They opened ASB with a very I
guess conservative at the time forecast of nine to seventy five. Fonterra,
as far as I know, is still sticking at ten bucks.

(03:08):
But look the way it's going at the moment, whether
weather providing that ten dollars is certainly under threat. So
Fonterra will come out in early December, I think it's
December the fifth, and they will have a look at
that milk forecast price for the twenty five twenty sixth season,
the futures market, interestingly is at nine dollars sixty two

(03:30):
and perhaps more worryingly, although it's a long time out
and we've got a lot of water to go under
the bridge before then, twenty six to twenty seven season
is at eight dollars ninety three and I can speak
for dairy farmers on this one. Ten bucks was a
great price. Nine to fifty is still a good price.
When you start getting under nine bucks. Bearing in mind
dairy and ZED said the cost of production something like

(03:52):
eight dollars sixty, it becomes a wee bit more marginal.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
Jamie, thank you very much. Good to talk to you.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
And when I was going to say, we'll talk to
you again on Thursday, but it is Thursday, isn't it.

Speaker 1 (04:02):
Jamie McKay, Host of the Country. For more from News
Talk zed B, listen live on air or on lay
and keep our shows with you wherever you go with
our podcasts on iHeartRadio