Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on inflation expectations going up in new data

Consumer confidence has gone back up - but new data indicates people are also worried about inflation.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows consumer confidence rose 5 points to 98.3 in April - but inflation expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7 percent, the highest reading since July 2023.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann unpacked the factors contributing to this data.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk. S'd be
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Willam Dan, the Herald's business editor at large, as with
us A Liam, Hey, Heather, Yeah, did you enjoy Toto
last night?

Speaker 3 (00:22):
I did enjoy Toto? Yeah, yeah, bit of you know,
yacht rock, bit of eighties yacht rock.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
I would have thought it a bit. It's a bit
like soft glam rock.

Speaker 4 (00:30):
Well, a lot of it was. It was more. It
was more of that than I thought.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
I mean, it depends whether they're playing their late seventies
stuff or their early eighties stuff. But gee, they were good,
good musicians.

Speaker 4 (00:39):
Were they?

Speaker 2 (00:39):
How many of their songs did you know?

Speaker 4 (00:41):
Though?

Speaker 3 (00:42):
I knew about five, which maybe means I knew about
one more than well.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
And then so hold the line Rosanna Africa, Georgie Paulgi.

Speaker 4 (00:50):
Yeah, there's one called ninety nine.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Oh you knew ninety nine?

Speaker 4 (00:54):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (00:54):
I didn't know that one.

Speaker 4 (00:55):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
And there's another one I forgot the name, but it
was sampled on a big house track in the nineteen nineties.
That one of the big slow ballads.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
You know what I've been listening to all day today,
The one that goes Pamela. Oh yeah, yeah, that was
the other one.

Speaker 4 (01:08):
Some of it was classic here metal, wasn't it.

Speaker 2 (01:10):
Yeah, Pamela was cool and and and it's always weird.
You go to a concert and you think, I mean,
obviously everybody loved Africa. That was just peak everything. But
there's always a weird song that you just love afterwards
and you thrash on the Spotify. So New Zealand's listening
of Pamela by Toto is going up today markedly. I
bet it's totally based to me. And by the way
you've written. The reason I'm asking you about.

Speaker 4 (01:33):
This is you've written a review on the Herald.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
Now your moon lighting some sort of music for Shonado
for the Herald.

Speaker 4 (01:39):
Yeah, well they haven't.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
They've got a very hip, young entertainment team, so there
hasn't got too many people wanting to do the dad rock.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Did nobody want to do the daggy dads?

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Right?

Speaker 4 (01:47):
So I'm picking and share it with me.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
I'll do it with you out those young ones don't
know what they're missing out on. It was there ever
a time as good as Africa by Toto? It's spark
Arena last night. Now listen let's talk about inflation. Okay,
so I see consumer confidence has gone up, which is good,
but inflation expectations have gone up as well, and people
who are expecting inflation to go up are wrong.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
Well, yeah, that's kind of kind of the theory. They
might be proved right. Things might change, they might change,
but at the moment, consumers are still really feeling the
acute inflation pressure. I mean, there's no doubt about that.
And so the latest consumer confidence confidence was up a bit.
That's good, we'll take it. This is the A and
Z Roy Morgan consumer confidence. But yeah, consumers also said

(02:32):
they were worried about inflation. Now, you know, Sharon zol And,
the chief economist at A and Z, has sort of
written about this in a report. The points she's trying
to make is and I guess I've been trying to
make and a lot of people are trying to make,
is that inflation probably won't be a problem later this year.
And that's because we're expecting the economy is not going
to pick up as much. Hope couse, it's going to
take a bit of a dive as a result of this. Well,

(02:53):
I mean, it's hopefully not going back to recession. But
it's just that that you know that the upswing that
we're looking for is taking much longer. You know, all
the turmoil around the world sort of that the global
growth being dampened is just will have an effect on
New Zealand, even if there isn't direct impacts from the arbor.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Does this thing call into question these surveys where we
go out and ask a bunch of normal punters if
they expect inflation to go up, and simply because inflation
is bad and Trump's tariffs are bad, they go, yeah,
is there any value in that?

Speaker 3 (03:23):
Well, I mean to the extent that they can be
self fulfilling. I mean that there's always questions about these surveys,
that's for sure. But you know, if consumers really believe something,
it affects their behavior and then the behavior goes and
you know, that's how spending goes. So if consumers think
things are improving, then maybe they'll get out and spend.
But yeah, it's still still fairly low levels of confidence.

(03:46):
But you know, that little bit of upswing was probably
a good thing on balance.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
What are you listening to on the way home?

Speaker 3 (03:52):
Oh, it's a good question. I'll be on my bike.
I can't listen to anything on the bike. It's too dangerous.

Speaker 4 (03:56):
Does that really?

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Can you not drive and listen to music.

Speaker 4 (04:00):
On the on the cycle?

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Ah?

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Yes about a bicycle? Yeah, bicycle because you've got to
leave the jacket on. I thought you were cool and
going on a motorbike.

Speaker 4 (04:06):
No, no, I'm not crick bike.

Speaker 2 (04:09):
No, it's probably better if you don't because we need
you to hear the cars.

Speaker 4 (04:11):
But yeah, could have been. Toto could have.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Been if he didn't, if he wanted to die. Liam,
Thank you, go and enjoy your long weekend. That's Liam Dan,
the Herald's business editor at large and also music reviewer.

Speaker 1 (04:21):
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