Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large unpacks recent GDP data for first quarter of 2025

New data out of Stats NZ reveals the country's gross domestic product grew by 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

It's a stronger result than predicted by the Reserve Bank and Treasury.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann unpacks these results - and voices his concerns about the future.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
William Dan Harold's business editor at Largest with us ALM. Hello, Heather,
How good was that GDP number?

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Pretty good? Like? I mean, you know, the economists had
already upped all the forecasts to zero point seven and
we got zero point eight. But as you know I've
mentioned before, I'm a little bit skeptical of GDP numbers.
You know that the one from the last quarter of
twenty twenty four got revised down to zero point five,
so you know, there's no guarantees that it's spot on
for this one either. But look, look, we'll take it. It

(00:46):
looks like the recovery was underway and in full swing
in that first quarter, so well we'll you know, let's
take that at for starters, well.

Speaker 1 (00:57):
And we hit it.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
I mean, geez, honestly, how many quarters have we had
that have been rubbish? Right? At least we are headed
solidly in the right direction, even if we have to
grind it out for the rest of the year, or
am I being a little too poly pollyannas here?

Speaker 3 (01:10):
Well, I think we are still heading in the right direction.
What's what spooked economists in the last week or so
is that the sort of high frequency data for the
second quarter that we're seeing for the coming through from
May around manufacturing and services that went back into negative
territory card spending and May went down. So so all

(01:30):
this this this first quarter GDP was pretty solid. It
was all pre Donald Trump doing the Liberation Day thing,
and you know, that sort of hit confidence, I guess,
and it made our key we savers go down and
that that probably didn't help. And then we've we've you know,
we've also seen that you know, not not great stuff

(01:51):
from the housing market, which we know is sort of
a bit of a driver of a wealth effect, particularly
in the big cities in Auckland. So consumers not feeling
hugely confident right now. So so so yeah, the sort
of mixed feelings, but you know it is heading the
right direction. And you know there's a feeling that well

(02:12):
for starters that the Reserve Bank will probably pause in
July and just wait and see you and won't give
us another cut, just in case they start to get
ahead of themselves.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Of course, not why would they want to do anything
to help the economy. Liam thanks very much, appreciate it.
Liam Down, the Herald's Business editor at large.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
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