December 18, 2025 • 3 mins
2025 has been a memorable year for global equity markets, and it's prompted speculation from investors.
Between economic downturns and tariffs, there's been plenty for experts to voice concerns about.
Fisher Funds expert Sam Dickie explained further.
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks B follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
So it's been a wild ride for global liquity markets
this year. We all know that here Donald Trump wasn't
even president on the first of January. Can you believe
that despite all the volatility, we're not a whisker off
all time highs now as we end the year. Sam
Dickie is with Fisher Funds and is with me tonight, Sam,
Good evening, Good evening, Ryan. What are the key lessons
do you reckon that we should take away from this year? Yeah,
(00:40):
roller coaster.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
So in the three things, we were reminded again when
everyone in the market has the same view, it's on
the front page of all the newspapers, it often pays
to disagree and take the other side. So you mentioned it.
On April eighth, a few days after President Trump's Liberation Day,
economists were very very vires saying the risk of recession
was spiking and if you read the newspaper you would
(01:02):
have sold everything that put in time. Headlines were comparing
the looming trade war to remember the Smoot Hawley Act
in nineteen thirty, which raised duties on twenty thousand goods
and arguably turned a recession into the Great Depression. As
it turned out, Trump's bark was worse than its byten,
global equity markets are up forty percent in eight months
since then, which is actually one of the fastest rallies
on record in two hundred years. The second thing is
(01:25):
we were reminded that there are other places to make
money outside of the US, so barring disaster in the
next few days, it's only the third time in fifteen
years that non U S equities outperform US equities. So
Japan is up almost twenty five percent as the stock
exchange is forcing investors to be more shareholder friendly, paid
more dividends. Countries like China and the UK have just
(01:46):
gotten too cheap and are up significantly more than the US.
And the final thing is we've learned again that the
equity market is now extremely concentrated in the US. So
the top ten stocks in the SMP five hundred the
five hundred stock index, make up forty percent of the index.
So it's ten stocks out of five hundred making up
forty percent. That is the most constant and traded ever
(02:09):
and has really interesting future implications for you know, those
those fund managers that are passive investors or index huggers.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Sam, can you give us a sneak peek into twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
So we talked you and I ran and you and
Heather and I back in October about the risks of
the AI bubble popping. Now, the really good news is
we've had a really healthy correction and some of those
perceived AI winners, especially at the risky A end of town.
So companies that we're using tons of debt to fund
this AI capex bonanza are down to lots of Oracles
(02:44):
down fifty percent, core weaves down sixty five percent. So
the point there is it's good news that investors are
becoming more discerning. So with that in mind, as we
sort of peak into twenty twenty six, the marketers shifted
from buy AI at any price to show me the return,
Show me the return on the massive amounts of capital
you're investing. So it's going to be fascinating to watch
(03:06):
whether those huge spenders like Google all have gotten that
message yet from the market. Now, if we take a
step back, the headline price to earnings ratio that the
bluntest sort of valuation ratio for the market and the
US is really really high, extremely high historically, So equity
markets look expensive on the face of it, but that's
(03:26):
really reflective of what we talked about four rhyin some
of those top ten companies are really fully valued, So
companies like Tesla on two hundred and fifty times price
to earnings look pretty ritzy. So the good news is
that blue chip companies, quality companies are the most out
of favor in thirty years, and that's boats really well
for focused investors and spells risk for passive index hugging investors.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So lots to look forward to. Absolutely, Sam appreciate that update.
Thank you, Sam Dicky from Fisher Funds.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
For more from News Talks at b listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks B follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
So it's been a wild ride for global liquity markets
this year. We all know that here Donald Trump wasn't
even president on the first of January. Can you believe
that despite all the volatility, we're not a whisker off
all time highs now as we end the year. Sam
Dickie is with Fisher Funds and is with me tonight, Sam,
Good evening, Good evening, Ryan. What are the key lessons
do you reckon that we should take away from this year? Yeah,
(00:40):
roller coaster.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
So in the three things, we were reminded again when
everyone in the market has the same view, it's on
the front page of all the newspapers, it often pays
to disagree and take the other side. So you mentioned it.
On April eighth, a few days after President Trump's Liberation Day,
economists were very very vires saying the risk of recession
was spiking and if you read the newspaper you would
(01:02):
have sold everything that put in time. Headlines were comparing
the looming trade war to remember the Smoot Hawley Act
in nineteen thirty, which raised duties on twenty thousand goods
and arguably turned a recession into the Great Depression. As
it turned out, Trump's bark was worse than its byten,
global equity markets are up forty percent in eight months
since then, which is actually one of the fastest rallies
on record in two hundred years. The second thing is
(01:25):
we were reminded that there are other places to make
money outside of the US, so barring disaster in the
next few days, it's only the third time in fifteen
years that non U S equities outperform US equities. So
Japan is up almost twenty five percent as the stock
exchange is forcing investors to be more shareholder friendly, paid
more dividends. Countries like China and the UK have just
(01:46):
gotten too cheap and are up significantly more than the US.
And the final thing is we've learned again that the
equity market is now extremely concentrated in the US. So
the top ten stocks in the SMP five hundred the
five hundred stock index, make up forty percent of the index.
So it's ten stocks out of five hundred making up
forty percent. That is the most constant and traded ever
(02:09):
and has really interesting future implications for you know, those
those fund managers that are passive investors or index huggers.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Sam, can you give us a sneak peek into twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
So we talked you and I ran and you and
Heather and I back in October about the risks of
the AI bubble popping. Now, the really good news is
we've had a really healthy correction and some of those
perceived AI winners, especially at the risky A end of town.
So companies that we're using tons of debt to fund
this AI capex bonanza are down to lots of Oracles
(02:44):
down fifty percent, core weaves down sixty five percent. So
the point there is it's good news that investors are
becoming more discerning. So with that in mind, as we
sort of peak into twenty twenty six, the marketers shifted
from buy AI at any price to show me the return,
Show me the return on the massive amounts of capital
you're investing. So it's going to be fascinating to watch
(03:06):
whether those huge spenders like Google all have gotten that
message yet from the market. Now, if we take a
step back, the headline price to earnings ratio that the
bluntest sort of valuation ratio for the market and the
US is really really high, extremely high historically, So equity
markets look expensive on the face of it, but that's
(03:26):
really reflective of what we talked about four rhyin some
of those top ten companies are really fully valued, So
companies like Tesla on two hundred and fifty times price
to earnings look pretty ritzy. So the good news is
that blue chip companies, quality companies are the most out
of favor in thirty years, and that's boats really well
for focused investors and spells risk for passive index hugging investors.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So lots to look forward to. Absolutely, Sam appreciate that update.
Thank you, Sam Dicky from Fisher Funds.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
For more from News Talks at b listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.
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