Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on capital markets stabilising

The first 100 days of the new Donald Trump administration have seen capital markets undergo a turbulent few months - but things appear to be stabilising.

The tariffs have seen the markets take a noticeable dip, but things have turned the corner this week.

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly explains the factors behind this.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Shane solely harbor Asset Management is with us right now. Hey, Shane,
get out there now, Shane. Why have the capital markets
started to chill out?

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Yeah, yeah, we've actually seen a bit of a recovery.
Excuse me, you were shares back up a pretty solid week.
Last week actually saw the US, the U S and
P five hundred. That's the main one. People talk about.
Four point six percent tech market Tech the NAIs deck
up six points in in big balance, even mister musk
Tessler upper eighteen percent. So it's all about some of

(00:46):
this stepping away in tariff. So this moderation of tariffs
is stepping off the heat from both the US and China.
Although mister Trump he keeps on saying, hey, look we're
going to drop tariffs to China, but with something substantial
in return. So the markets like that. Markets also like
the fact we've had some pretty good profit results out
of the US companies, so they've been better and the

(01:08):
out better. But it's really about this tariff news being quieter.
They're stepping away the US market the biggest, and P
five hundred only down one and a half percent month
to day, the naisday, the tech market up on the
on the month. Not many people to pick that. And
our market here today was up point seventy percent, so
we're only down one point four percent. So yeah, markets
are seeing things. We might have seen the worst.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
But were there a couple of share price moves here
in New Zealand that that reflected what's going on with tariffs?

Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah, we're not immune. And you've knowed that the healthcare
stock Fish and Pike with health Care actually was up today.
Is a bit of a delayed reaction to one of
its comparable businesses, Rismid, which is a US business. They
had a better result last Thusday and they specifically talked
about some of their products being exempt from some of
the potential US government tariffs and they're had pretty good demands.

(01:59):
So the market's been a bit delayed and picking that up.
But it has seen Hey maybe fishing bikell can be
exempt on tariffs as well. Particularly it's mixing in production
and demand state good in contrast with main freight. This
is the freight whouse logistics some the great business. But
week today and the ship price fell. There was definitely
one of its US comparator companies was a bit weak,

(02:20):
just highlighting this slow down and the US economy as
trade tariffs is started the hit, so not surprising to
see a bit of weakness there. And then Delegates, the
producer of some of the New Zealand's the Servinyon Blanc,
came out with a downgrade, just saying, hey, look this
we're uncertain about four past growth given this ten percent
increase in tariffs. Good news there, of course, a really
good harvest, good quality, good volume, so plenty of Sevin

(02:43):
your bloc to go around.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
What's coming up this week that we should be watching
out for.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, pretty busy week here. We've got the aims at
business confidence and activity outlook here in New Zealand And
on Wednesday, and that's about are these green shoots that
we've been talking about continuing? Are they growing? And Izzie
On Wednesday, we've also got the inflation data and that
may support more cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia
to their official rates. Busy week predominantly on Wednesday for

(03:08):
the US their PCEE implation, that's the one that the
US Central Bank mainly watches the GDP growth that's all
out on Wednesday, and then they've got their unemployment numbers
and their manufacturing forecast lead indicators coming out. It's all
about what does that matter given the liberation data. Liberation
Day has come out subsequent to the data, so the

(03:30):
data maybe old, so it's going to be really hard
for central banks and invest is to read through that.
We've got a bunch of US companies reporting this week
as well. It's almost thirty percent of the US market
by market capitalization. The Chinese have got their purchasing manager
and disease out on Wednesday. Is there a resign of recovery?
The Japanese have got a Bank of Japan rate decision

(03:52):
on Thursday. They have been increasing rates where they keep
increasing rates given what's happening globally. And then finally, there's
just three elections going on to Canadian and Singapore and
on Saturday we've got the Australian federal election going on.
So there's a lot to think about.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, totally a lot of moving parts. Hey, Shane, Thanks
very much. Shane solely Harbor Asset Management.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
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