Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on the market reactions to the Iran-Israel conflict

Israel and Iran have been engaged in air strikes for several days now - and experts have wondered what the conflict could mean for the wider world.

It's day three of the latest conflict, as the two countries exchange deadly attacks following Israel's initial assault on Friday. 

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly unpacked the market reactions.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
With me now though Shane Solly Harbor Asset Management. Hey Shane,
Hello on Ember Shane. So, how the capital markets reacted
to this Iran Israel conflict.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, So Friday we saw the U S. Shia market
in the U S and P five hundred, which is
the broad market, down about one point one percent. Since then,
we've since the closes, I've seen another escalation and conflict,
a lot more bombardments of each other's, particularly the energy infrastructure.
So look, we're just watching to see what the US
market does when you open the futures, which is the
forward looking indicators actually slightly up. We don't know. Locally,

(00:49):
we saw the New Zeon dollar pretty stable against the
US dollar today, about sixty point two eight nhs being yielded.
The New Zion tenure government bond Yers that was up
a little bit just under ten besis points, so back
to four point sixty four percent. Maybe that's about people
thinking about invation on the back of higher oil prices.
And actually the New Zealand Shire market was up one
percent today, is led by strength and some of our

(01:09):
growth stocks, utilities and infrastructuous used. So probably a bit
of a surprise for some people on that one.

Speaker 2 (01:14):
What do you reckon is the key risks from the
conflict to economies and markets from here on in.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
Yeah, look, it's tough to know how this is going
to turn out. Clearly some real human tragedy yere, we've
got to go into that. But for the global economies
and capital markets, probably the biggest risk is that Iran
or it's our ways disrupt the slate, the straits of homes.
That's with is a lot of oil comes through the
conflict widens and we actually see some inflation go up
on the back of it. Since we've had this conflict.

(01:41):
Keeckoff with Texas Internedio oil prices it's the main one
of the reference points for oil going to just under
seventy three dollars use a barrel. That's twelve up in
a week, So tough one for us in New Zealand.
The risk is a lot of that oil out of
our own goest to China, and if there's a problem
there then slows the Chinese economy down, slows our economy down,
and just higher energy prices not good for inflation in

(02:03):
this part of the world.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Shane, what do you make of this takeover offer for
tourism holdings?

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Yeah, so interesting. One we had a sensitive non binding
offer for theres and holdings is their Candavan operator from
a group called BGH Capital that's a private equity firm
and back for by the Australian Trichet family who had
backed some Australian essets and tourism holdings a few years ago.
The bid two dollars thirty. That's fifty seven percent above

(02:30):
Friday's close a one for Hysic. Pretty healthy. They've got
the backing of Truche that true SCHA holders holders and
also as the A and D and Wilson Hessey Management,
so BGH has got about a twenty percent stake. Now
there's no studency on the transaction. Uh, it's subject to
dubiligence and funding board recommendations. But BGH they've got a

(02:50):
history of being pretty patient on these things. So we
saw that tourism holding ship Ice closed at two dollars
thirty today. A little bit to play out here here though,
I think I think we've got somewhere to go. But
you know, that's a bit of a reminder that parts
of our seer market are pretty attractive to overseas investors.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yeah, Sean, Hey, thanks very much. It's good to talk
to you. Appreciate it, mate. That Shane's Holy Harbor Asset Management.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
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