Time's ticking for US trade partners to sign tariff deals with Donald Trump.
In April, the President announced most countries, including New Zealand, would face a 10 percent minimum levy - but has delayed their implementation.
This week, he's promised to send out what he's calling 'take it or leave it' letters.
Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly revealed how the markets reacted.
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed Be.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Market Shane Sally Harbor Resit Management with us, Hey, Shane,
get it Ryan. How markets react to Trump's latest trade
tariff announcements.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Well, mister Trump, he's pretty good at keeping us on
our toes. The US shear market futures, this S and
P futures is what's telling us the market expects to
happen tonight. Our time is down on point four percent
after mister Trump, he warned us that he's going to
put sending some letters out to people up to ten
to twelve on Friday, and he's going to start sitting
livies as much as seventy percent unilasterally a heat of
(00:47):
this July ninth deadline. So he's throwing a few We're
going to make this happen things today. He's come out
he's on time this afternoon and said he's going to
put an extra ten percent tariff on those countries.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Align with Brooks, this is.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
The the emerging nations includes Russia and China, Brazil and
then adding to the US Treasury Secretary Scot the Cent
they said that here, mister Trump may impose April second
Liberation Day level tariffs on countries that don't reach a
deal beginning of the first of August.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Now that is different from the July to night.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So that suggests that face for you, you're going to
see this extension of tariff paise again.
Speaker 4 (01:27):
So that's what capital markets are thinking.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
We're all thinking US government's going to push tariff's pauses
out further. If we don't get that, and if we
actually get increased tariffs, that would be a surprise for
capital markets.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Yeah, okay, interesting. What about the RBA tomorrow their decision.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Yeah, so the IRBA, Australia's central bankers their bank in
Australia widely expected to deliberate a point two five percent cut.
That's at four thirty Zone time, and that would take
Australia's official illustrate down to three point six from three
point eight five. At the moment, it's the key for market,
it's all about tone inflations falling back to.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
Within the irba's target bands.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
They could do more cuts, but similarly, they might want
to wait and see how the three twenty five basis
points cuts through from December kick through. That would be
what's called a hawkish cut, so they'll cut rates and
then they'll say we're going to wait and see the
key thing from Zona. Course on Wednesday, we've got our
own reserve bank coming out and markets aren't expecting anything. Ryan,
It's very much steady as she goes. But there is
(02:26):
a growing view that the IRB has some room to
start talking about potentially cutting rates, and that would be
a what's called a doubvish hole, so they wouldn't cut,
but they'd start talking about potentially cutting. So quite a
big difference between the RBA and the RBNZ certainly is.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
And we've got our call obviously this week as well.
What about OPEK cranking up the oil production. How's that
been received?
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yeah, actually quite poisonively, just the increase in production. So
IPEK places talking about increasing production by five hundred and
forty eight thousand barrels a day, very specific number, which
is up high then they previously indicated four hundred and
eleven thousand dollars barrels a day. What that's mean is
we're seeing the Brent oil price, the futures again, the
(03:08):
forward market, what markets may do overnight. New Zealand time
expecting their or price to fall by zero point seven percent,
so just under one percent to just over sixty eight
dollars US per barrel, and of course that lower all price,
they'd be helpful in terms of inflation relief, maybe allowing
some of those central bankers to think about cutting rates again.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Perhaps, Ryan, that'd be nice.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Shane, appreciate your time, Shane, Solly Harbor Asset Management with
us for a market rap for this evening.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed Be.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Market Shane Sally Harbor Resit Management with us, Hey, Shane,
get it Ryan. How markets react to Trump's latest trade
tariff announcements.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Well, mister Trump, he's pretty good at keeping us on
our toes. The US shear market futures, this S and
P futures is what's telling us the market expects to
happen tonight. Our time is down on point four percent
after mister Trump, he warned us that he's going to
put sending some letters out to people up to ten
to twelve on Friday, and he's going to start sitting
livies as much as seventy percent unilasterally a heat of
(00:47):
this July ninth deadline. So he's throwing a few We're
going to make this happen things today. He's come out
he's on time this afternoon and said he's going to
put an extra ten percent tariff on those countries.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Align with Brooks, this is.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
The the emerging nations includes Russia and China, Brazil and
then adding to the US Treasury Secretary Scot the Cent
they said that here, mister Trump may impose April second
Liberation Day level tariffs on countries that don't reach a
deal beginning of the first of August.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Now that is different from the July to night.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So that suggests that face for you, you're going to
see this extension of tariff paise again.
Speaker 4 (01:27):
So that's what capital markets are thinking.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
We're all thinking US government's going to push tariff's pauses
out further. If we don't get that, and if we
actually get increased tariffs, that would be a surprise for
capital markets.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Yeah, okay, interesting. What about the RBA tomorrow their decision.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Yeah, so the IRBA, Australia's central bankers their bank in
Australia widely expected to deliberate a point two five percent cut.
That's at four thirty Zone time, and that would take
Australia's official illustrate down to three point six from three
point eight five. At the moment, it's the key for market,
it's all about tone inflations falling back to.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
Within the irba's target bands.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
They could do more cuts, but similarly, they might want
to wait and see how the three twenty five basis
points cuts through from December kick through. That would be
what's called a hawkish cut, so they'll cut rates and
then they'll say we're going to wait and see the
key thing from Zona. Course on Wednesday, we've got our
own reserve bank coming out and markets aren't expecting anything. Ryan,
It's very much steady as she goes. But there is
(02:26):
a growing view that the IRB has some room to
start talking about potentially cutting rates, and that would be
a what's called a doubvish hole, so they wouldn't cut,
but they'd start talking about potentially cutting. So quite a
big difference between the RBA and the RBNZ certainly is.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
And we've got our call obviously this week as well.
What about OPEK cranking up the oil production. How's that
been received?
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yeah, actually quite poisonively, just the increase in production. So
IPEK places talking about increasing production by five hundred and
forty eight thousand barrels a day, very specific number, which
is up high then they previously indicated four hundred and
eleven thousand dollars barrels a day. What that's mean is
we're seeing the Brent oil price, the futures again, the
(03:08):
forward market, what markets may do overnight. New Zealand time
expecting their or price to fall by zero point seven percent,
so just under one percent to just over sixty eight
dollars US per barrel, and of course that lower all price,
they'd be helpful in terms of inflation relief, maybe allowing
some of those central bankers to think about cutting rates again.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Perhaps, Ryan, that'd be nice.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Shane, appreciate your time, Shane, Solly Harbor Asset Management with
us for a market rap for this evening.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
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