Tim Groser: Former US ambassador on the significance of Luxon appearing at next week's NATO summit

There's increased efforts to position New Zealand on the world stage and make connections with the US.

Prime Minister Chris Luxon is jetting off to the NATO summit and meeting with officials in Washington next week.

He says he looks forward to forging stronger links with businesses and investors to help rebuild our economy.

Former US Ambassador Tim Groser says the timing couldn't be more tense or important.

"The key issue is what he's going to be able to perceive amongst the other leaders of NATO, given the confluence of the huge strategic threat from the Ukrainian situation and the resurgence of Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:18):
Prime Minister Chris Luxen is headed to the US next
week to attend the NATO Summit in Washington, where he's
going to meet with members of the US administration in Congress,
and then he's also going to head over to San
fran to promote business and investment. Tim Grosser is the
former New Zealand Ambassador to the US and is with
US now.

Speaker 3 (00:32):
Hate Tim, good evening.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Do you reckon he's going to get to meet Biden.

Speaker 3 (00:39):
Well, I'm sure he will shake his hand, but I
don't believe for a minute there will be enough time
for President Biden to have a separate bilateral given the
number of leaders that will be there from NATO, country's
vastly more important than US. But I still think it's
a terrific thing that he's going there, and I can't
think of a more tense or important time. So I mean,

(00:59):
let me give you my overall perspective. I mean, the
rest of the visit is all I mean. I would
use the term boilerplate, but that's sounds negative. I don't
really mean that. The key issue is what is going
to be able to perceive amongst the other leaders of NATO,
given the confluence of the huge strategic threat from the

(01:19):
Ukrainian situation and the resurgence of Donald Trump's chances of
winning the presidency. If you give me two or three minutes,
I'll elaborate on those things. So we start with I'll
try and keep this basic. You know, the NATO existed
after the War to protect European security. It's been a
fantastic political success. It was aimed at the then Soviet

(01:42):
Union and then that became Russia. And the core commitment
technically is called Article five. What it means is you
formerly the Soviet Union or Russia attack any of our
members and it's an in tank on all of US,
and US includes most importantly the United States, doesn't include
New Zealand, by the way. So this kept the peace

(02:04):
in this ghastly faustian bargain pack US and face nuclear
armageddon for seventy five years. And then Putin decided to
invade first crime year in twenty fourteen. I was stuck
in Moscow at the time. The exact time that's happened
but that's another story. And then in twenty twenty two,

(02:24):
his tanks and his troops invade Western Ukraine, the most
serious threat to European security for seventy five years. Now
Ukraine is not a native member. They'd love to be,
they never will be. And the reality is that the
fantasy of you know, Boris Johnson, lez Trust and co.

(02:46):
Of total defeat of Russia now two plus years on,
is now clear to everyone, even if nobody's worked out
a way to say it in public. And that's the
underlying issue. And then along comes Donald Trump's resurgence last week.
So go back to I think twenty sixteen, just after

(03:07):
I was appointed ambassador in Washington, Trump made a statement
that basically said Russia has no longer a threat. And
then he went a step further, I think in either
twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen, by actually questioning whether the
United States would validate Article five, the mutual deterrance central

(03:28):
component of NATO. And I went to this. So he
went there, and there was shock and horror throughout Europe
when he basically left it ambiguous. And I went to
a catch up job, a massive elegant black tie dinner
for about six hundred people and all the Western ambassadors,
including me, were invited at an elegant hotel in Washington,

(03:52):
and you know, all the great and the good Stoltenberg,
the then Secretary General of NATO and all came up
to say, the support of the United States for Article
five and for the defense of Europe is unquestionable. And
Mike Pence, who was then still the Vice president and
on Donald Trump's started got up and said the same thing,

(04:13):
and there was dead silence because everybody is thinking what
I'm thinking. It doesn't matter, mister Vice president, what you
think if your boss has just said this that can't
be repaired by a gloss over show like this blank
tie dinner.

Speaker 2 (04:27):
And so is this the threat of Trump winning a gain?
Is that we go back into this particular the possibility
that my.

Speaker 3 (04:35):
Point exactly my point either And I think that our
Prime minister, I mean, you can receive as many briefings
as he likes from foreign policy experts people, you know,
like I was in the past, but he really has
to go and hear it amongst the leaders have to
make real decisions. And I mean, I don't know what
your take on the debate is. While there's a massive

(04:56):
cover up. That's what is very clear to me from
a series of brilliant analyses that I've read in the
last forty eight hours and a few conversations I've had
with friends in the stage still deeply inside the political process,
this has got to be played out, and the chances
of a second Drump presidency have increased by some factor.

(05:18):
Nobody can say quite what.

Speaker 2 (05:20):
I'm pleased that you say that, because that's quite obvious
to everybody, and I'm please somebody with your expertise and
your years and politics sees it as well. Tim, Thank you,
I appreciate it. Tim Grosser, former New Zealand Ambassadors to
the U, is just on what Tim was just saying
about Ukraine not joining NATO. Next week when NATO meets,
according to the Telegraph, Ukraine is going to be told
it is too corrupt to join NATO and it's so

(05:41):
it's not going to be able.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
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