January 13, 2025 • 6 mins
Job numbers have picked up slightly, but not everyone's benefiting.
Latest figures from Stats NZ show the number of filled jobs rose slightly in November, for the first time in eight months.
Service sector jobs rose but primary industries and goods industry jobs declined.
Infometrics’ Brad Olsen told Tim Beveridge that it’s a bit early for it to be fully sustainable, but there is a definite shift.
He says it’s early signs of better thing to come for the economy in 2025.
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Times to say, good morning, rad Olsen, Hi, Brad, good morning.
So the job numbers increase for the first time at
night months.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Yes, we saw a zero point three percent increase in
job numbers in November from October. That was the first
increase since March last year. So feeling like a better
number coming through. To be fair, these job figures do
sort of get revised around a bit as more information
comes into the statistical system, and you know, there's a
(00:45):
lot of movement out there, but it was the first
increase in a while. Looking through some of the figures
there is quite an interesting sort of spread there. There
was a little bit more in the tourism sector coming
through in November, a few more jobs in hospitality are
the likes of transport, recreation and similar, but the likes
of construction still sort of falling and coming back a bit.
(01:07):
But industries, the likes of manufacturing professional services maybe plateauing
a bit, so you know, stabilizing a bit after some
still pretty big falls, but definitely a bit of a shift,
maybe a little bit early for it to be fully
fully sustainable. But at the same time, we've seen job
ad numbers that have been again starting to just plateau
(01:29):
out a little bit. It's not, you know, an economic
revolution all of a sudden, but it's maybe just some
of those again early signs of slightly better things to
come for the economy this year.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Just not wanting to be a curveball question, but those
tourism related sectors, would we have any indication whether that's
related to international or domestic tourism. Yeah, I think this.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Parts of both, to be fair. Part of it will
be that we usually see a bit of a ramp
up in November if tourism operators think that there's going
to be a better summer season, and often that's based
on some of the bookings they'll be getting from overseas
and similar But at the same time, it has been
interesting in the electronic card dat of the last couple
of month it's been ever so slight pack up in
(02:10):
hospitality spending as well. So I think it's both probably
some solid forward bookings going into someone but also a
little bit more spending coming through from households. As you know,
the likes of tax cuts, lower inflation and eventually those
interest rate cuts just started to shift ever so slightly
household expectations and spending.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Growth in twenty twenty four was the slowest in five years.
I guess it could have been where it could have
been the slowest in twenty but anyway, yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
I mean it's still it's one of those things. Again,
it's it's interesting to get into these figures. Worldline says
that last year care we spent thirty six point three
billion dollars on core retail across the country through the network.
That was up point eight percent on a year ago. Now,
remember again that inflation is sort of sitting just over
two percent, so ato point eight percent in terms of
(02:59):
dollar growth, people were still actually getting less out of
the shops, but they're just paying a bit more for it.
But you're right, that's the slowest spending growth since twenty
twenty And what I think was probably most interesting looking
at those figures was, although there was a growth in
overall spending happening, the sort of amount per transaction foul
point six percent, which indicates that Kiwis were both probably
(03:22):
looking for a bit more discounting and doing a bit
more barget hunting, and we certainly saw that during the
Christmas shopping period, but also probably people that are looking
for slightly smaller items, not going for those big, large,
high value items spend because no one can afford that
in this previous economy. But again, bit of a shift
starting to come through there doesn't both really well for
(03:43):
retailers at through last year have obviously been under a
bit of pressure, but again maybe some better things to come.
Will get some more spending figures later this week which
will hopefully shed a bit more light on where we
are going into the twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And building consents left four point eight percent in November.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Yes, again sort of it's some of that maybe early
sort of stuff coming through, And I do hasten. I mean,
I know I've said that a lot just now, but
it is because we're a little bit reluctant to go,
look one month that's gone well and just you know,
absolutely pop the champagne corks. But all of this is
sort of a bit more cautiously optimistic, particularly because this
list in building consents came through with a fourteen percent
(04:23):
lift in attached dwelling, So your multi unit stuff, your townhouses,
your apartments, that's the first increase in nearly two years
that's been coming through, and again just suggests that after
a pretty tough ride for a lot of builders who
haven't had nearly as much work, maybe again we're starting
to find that bottom and think about where we're going
into the future. So, and I know that likes the
(04:44):
Building and Construction Minister Chris Pink was pretty excited by
these numbers. You know, it is an area where all
of a sudden there's a lot of a little bit
more optimism starting to come through, maybe a little bit
more of an expectation that there's some better activity out there.
So not popping the champagne corks yet, but definitely some
earlier signs poking through in the economy just quickly.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Does that mean that the whole interest rate outcome is
influenced by the states? Will that have a flow on
effect with our building consents and things like that, depending
on what the Reserve Bank governor does.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
It definitely could. And look, I heard your review before,
and I think it's spot on. I think it's very
reasonable to be cautious, and I think some of these
shifts we're seeing in the economy they are genuine and
they will likely stick around, no matter if the US
rates come down or not. I think it's more sort
of where we sit in maybe six months time, where
(05:36):
people have been going, look, there's more to come, there's
more to come, There's more to come that will support
even better outcomes. Maybe that doesn't materialize quite as much.
So it might just be again tempering how much of
a bump or a boost we think we're going to
get this year, because it just pays to be cautious
after the last couple of years of volatility.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Good stuff. Hey, Brad, great to talk to you. That's
informatric's chief executive Brad Olsen.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
For more from News Talks' be listen live on air
or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Times to say, good morning, rad Olsen, Hi, Brad, good morning.
So the job numbers increase for the first time at
night months.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Yes, we saw a zero point three percent increase in
job numbers in November from October. That was the first
increase since March last year. So feeling like a better
number coming through. To be fair, these job figures do
sort of get revised around a bit as more information
comes into the statistical system, and you know, there's a
(00:45):
lot of movement out there, but it was the first
increase in a while. Looking through some of the figures
there is quite an interesting sort of spread there. There
was a little bit more in the tourism sector coming
through in November, a few more jobs in hospitality are
the likes of transport, recreation and similar, but the likes
of construction still sort of falling and coming back a bit.
(01:07):
But industries, the likes of manufacturing professional services maybe plateauing
a bit, so you know, stabilizing a bit after some
still pretty big falls, but definitely a bit of a shift,
maybe a little bit early for it to be fully
fully sustainable. But at the same time, we've seen job
ad numbers that have been again starting to just plateau
(01:29):
out a little bit. It's not, you know, an economic
revolution all of a sudden, but it's maybe just some
of those again early signs of slightly better things to
come for the economy this year.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Just not wanting to be a curveball question, but those
tourism related sectors, would we have any indication whether that's
related to international or domestic tourism. Yeah, I think this.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Parts of both, to be fair. Part of it will
be that we usually see a bit of a ramp
up in November if tourism operators think that there's going
to be a better summer season, and often that's based
on some of the bookings they'll be getting from overseas
and similar But at the same time, it has been
interesting in the electronic card dat of the last couple
of month it's been ever so slight pack up in
(02:10):
hospitality spending as well. So I think it's both probably
some solid forward bookings going into someone but also a
little bit more spending coming through from households. As you know,
the likes of tax cuts, lower inflation and eventually those
interest rate cuts just started to shift ever so slightly
household expectations and spending.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Growth in twenty twenty four was the slowest in five years.
I guess it could have been where it could have
been the slowest in twenty but anyway, yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
I mean it's still it's one of those things. Again,
it's it's interesting to get into these figures. Worldline says
that last year care we spent thirty six point three
billion dollars on core retail across the country through the network.
That was up point eight percent on a year ago. Now,
remember again that inflation is sort of sitting just over
two percent, so ato point eight percent in terms of
(02:59):
dollar growth, people were still actually getting less out of
the shops, but they're just paying a bit more for it.
But you're right, that's the slowest spending growth since twenty
twenty And what I think was probably most interesting looking
at those figures was, although there was a growth in
overall spending happening, the sort of amount per transaction foul
point six percent, which indicates that Kiwis were both probably
(03:22):
looking for a bit more discounting and doing a bit
more barget hunting, and we certainly saw that during the
Christmas shopping period, but also probably people that are looking
for slightly smaller items, not going for those big, large,
high value items spend because no one can afford that
in this previous economy. But again, bit of a shift
starting to come through there doesn't both really well for
(03:43):
retailers at through last year have obviously been under a
bit of pressure, but again maybe some better things to come.
Will get some more spending figures later this week which
will hopefully shed a bit more light on where we
are going into the twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And building consents left four point eight percent in November.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Yes, again sort of it's some of that maybe early
sort of stuff coming through, And I do hasten. I mean,
I know I've said that a lot just now, but
it is because we're a little bit reluctant to go,
look one month that's gone well and just you know,
absolutely pop the champagne corks. But all of this is
sort of a bit more cautiously optimistic, particularly because this
list in building consents came through with a fourteen percent
(04:23):
lift in attached dwelling, So your multi unit stuff, your townhouses,
your apartments, that's the first increase in nearly two years
that's been coming through, and again just suggests that after
a pretty tough ride for a lot of builders who
haven't had nearly as much work, maybe again we're starting
to find that bottom and think about where we're going
into the future. So, and I know that likes the
(04:44):
Building and Construction Minister Chris Pink was pretty excited by
these numbers. You know, it is an area where all
of a sudden there's a lot of a little bit
more optimism starting to come through, maybe a little bit
more of an expectation that there's some better activity out there.
So not popping the champagne corks yet, but definitely some
earlier signs poking through in the economy just quickly.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Does that mean that the whole interest rate outcome is
influenced by the states? Will that have a flow on
effect with our building consents and things like that, depending
on what the Reserve Bank governor does.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
It definitely could. And look, I heard your review before,
and I think it's spot on. I think it's very
reasonable to be cautious, and I think some of these
shifts we're seeing in the economy they are genuine and
they will likely stick around, no matter if the US
rates come down or not. I think it's more sort
of where we sit in maybe six months time, where
(05:36):
people have been going, look, there's more to come, there's
more to come, There's more to come that will support
even better outcomes. Maybe that doesn't materialize quite as much.
So it might just be again tempering how much of
a bump or a boost we think we're going to
get this year, because it just pays to be cautious
after the last couple of years of volatility.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Good stuff. Hey, Brad, great to talk to you. That's
informatric's chief executive Brad Olsen.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
For more from News Talks' be listen live on air
or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
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