Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principle Economist on rising Employment Confidence Index

Another sign of hope on the horizon for jobseekers. 

The latest quarterly Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index has risen for the first time in over two years, off the back of a three-and-a-half-year low. 

Public sector workers are more pessimistic than private sector workers about their earning prospects. 

But there's growing confidence, across the board, about the availability of jobs. 

Infometrics’ Brad Olsen told Tim Beveridge that it’s another sign that we’re maybe starting to reach the end of the really difficult periods people are facing. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Time to say a very good morning to Brad Olson.

Speaker 3 (00:19):
Brad High, good morning.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
So US inflation CPI data is up tomorrow at two
thirty am.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
No, it's actually just come out this morning our time,
sort of the biggest news a little bit, and obviously
given the sort of ups and downs, and it presented
a bit of a mixed picture. We saw the fastest
in fation the US has seen since July, so it
picked up again. That's sort of the bad news. But
the better news for a lot of traders is that
core inflation, once you strip out the volatile sort of

(00:50):
food and fuel and similar actually easeback ever so slightly.
You've got a few more people in the mark now
picking that the US Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates,
and that's meant that this morning the dal Jones is
up I think one point four percent the last I
looked at it. So actually there has being After we
talked earlier this week Tim about how you know, the

(01:12):
markets weren't looking so good and the currency had come down.
Today it's now started to bounce back the other way.
So a lot of movement, and I think that highlights
that the risk this year is that everyone is still
jumping at shadows in the US markets. There is still
so much going on that, you know, every couple of
days you might see a new data point that will
convince everyone that the world is spinning in a slightly

(01:33):
different direction.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
And employment confidence has picked up just a touch.

Speaker 3 (01:39):
Yes, the latest west Pac McDermot Miller Employment Confidence survey
has come out showing that employment confidence is up to
ninety one point six. Now anything below one hundred still
means that people are more pessimistic than optimistic about what's
happening in the labor market, but it's pitched up just
a bit, which is again sort of in line with

(02:00):
some of the other data we've seen recently. Has been
a very small turnaround months on months in job numbers.
The number of job adds out advertised in the market
had looked like they might be sort of plateauing, albeit
at quite low level. So just another sort of sign
that maybe we're starting to get towards the end of
those really difficult areas. The number of people reporting how

(02:22):
challenging it is to get a job at the moment,
still high, but the first sort of improvement or I
think the highest level in about two years, So high
level off a low base. Again, just a bit of
a shift, and we Speck reporting maybe that that's consistent
with yes, unemployment patting five percent, but maybe not a
huge amount above.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
That, and investors felt a little more confident at the
end of twenty twenty four. According to chairsis.

Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yes, the latest Chasis index reached fifty five out of
one hundred, putting it into confident territory for the first
time in twenty twenty four. Before their investors had been
either cautious or balanced through the year. Again, that sort
of feeling around what was happening with inflation, how much
might interest rates come back, was definitely a bit of

(03:09):
a turn towards the end of the year. Shares has
reported that both there was a bit more money traded
three point two billion dollars was traded through the platform
and the wider system towards the end of the year.
That's quite significantly a record for them, and more than
they've seen in previous quarters. And as well as that
more people were putting money into the system and taking

(03:31):
it out, and that again sort of implies that, Look,
if you're an investor and you're trying to put money
into the markets, well you've got to be confident enough
that you think there's something to be done there. And
of course, given the tough economic conditions we faced last year,
if you're putting more money into the markets, then of
course you've obviously got money to spend. And that implies again,
just a little bit more activity, a little bit more

(03:53):
confident starting to come through. It's not really really strong,
but it's definitely a bit of a pitch up.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Better than a little bit of negativity, just a little
bit of positivity. We'll take that, won't.

Speaker 3 (04:02):
We well, absolutely, and I think that's the same with
all of this data. It is small signs that we're
starting to see a bit of a shift, and I
think you know, you take the US markets, we started
this week to talking about how you know, almost the
sky was falling, and now the data out of the
morning sort of has raised all of those falls and
pushed things up. The New Zealand dollars up to at

(04:23):
one point was trading in the high fifty six US
scent range. So you know, it's just a couple of
days every now and then that you might sort of
see this whip soaring, So keep your wits about you.

Speaker 2 (04:33):
Excellent good stuff. Brad really appreciate your time this morning.
That is Brad Olsen. He's the CEO of in for Metrics.

Speaker 1 (04:38):
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