John MacDonald: Let's not go all misery guts over these crime stats

How are you feeling about the world, now that we know the Government’s goal of having 20,000 less violent crimes by 2029 has already been achieved? Four years early.  

Anyone who tries to pick holes in this result would be a bit of a misery guts, because who could find anything possibly wrong with there being 20,000 less victims?   

Try Ginny Andersen. Labour’s police spokesperson is saying today that the numbers raise more questions than they provide answers.  

Which is a bit like a school kid getting excellence in their NCEA and their parents asking how they managed it when they seemed to be on their phone all the time.  

That doesn’t matter, does it? The kid’s got NCEA with flying colours. Just like it doesn’t matter why there’s been this decrease in violent crime, there just has.    

Although, I kind of hear what Ginny Andersen is saying. In Canterbury, there’s been a 43% decrease – 15,000 fewer victims of violent crimes. And no one seems to know why that is. But I’ll take it, thanks.   

And Ginny Andersen doesn’t seem to be excited by the fact that the Government has released these numbers in a different way. Normally, they're released once a year, but the Government is now releasing them every three months.  

But however this decrease has happened, why it’s happened, and whoever can take the credit for it happening, is irrelevant.   

Because the data tells us that something is working.    

We could go down a rabbit hole of trying to work out what particular bit of government policy might have actually done the trick, but I don’t even think the Government can put its finger on that one.  

Which is pretty much what Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith was saying on Newstalk ZB today.  

But, for now, the target has been reached, which I’m going to the vibe that’s been coming from the Government regarding crime, because I think that’s as important as any specific policies themselves.  

I’ve always been very doubtful about the gang patch ban, for example. I’m not convinced yet on that one, and I don’t actually think that will have much of an impact on violent crime stats.   

Just like the boot camps for bad kids – I’m not a fan.   

But, despite my misgivings on those things, I won't be giving the Government a hard time today about these crime numbers.  

I reckon a big part of it is the increased visibility of the police.  

I don’t know how they’ve done it —because the numbers haven’t shot up or anything— but certainly in Christchurch, the police are way more visible.  

I spend a lot of time in the central city, and I would say that I haven’t seen as many police on patrol in that part of town for years.  

It wasn’t all that long ago when I’d have business owners in the central city telling me about assaults and things and the cops being nowhere and not even turning up when they called them. Even though the central police station was a hundred metres away.  

Fast-forward to today, and it’s a very different story.  

So that’s one thing I reckon has definitely made a difference and is part of the reason why violent crime is down.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Kerry Wood of Morning's podcast from
News Talks, he'd be so.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
How are you feeling?

Speaker 3 (00:12):
Question?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
How are you feeling about the world? Now that we
know the government's goal of having twenty thousand less violent
crimes by twenty twenty nine has already been achieved four
years early. Anyone who tries to only realistically, anyone who
tries to pick holes in this result would be a
bit of a misery guts, wouldn't they because who could
find anything possibly wrong with there being twenty thousand less victims?

(00:36):
Who could? Well, let's bringing Ginny Anderson as she's being
a bit of a misery guts. Today, a Labour's police
spokesperson is saying that the numbers raise more questions than
they provide answers, which I reckon is a bit like
a kid getting excellence in the NCEEA and their parents
turn around saying how the hell did you do that?
When you send to beyond the phone all the time.

(01:00):
It doesn't matter, does it. The kids got NCEEA with
flying colors, just like it doesn't matter why there's been
the decrease in violent crime there just has. It's celebrated.
Although I can't hear what Ginny Anderson is saying. I mean,
in Canterbury where we are, there's been a forty three
percent decrease, fifteen fewer victims of violent crimes, and no

(01:23):
one seems to know why that is. Pretend I'll take it, thanks,
I'm not going to question it. I'll take it. And
Ginny Anderson doesn't seem to be excited by the fact
that the government's released these numbers in a different way.
Normally they're released once a year. The Government's now releasing
them every three months. Maybe it suits the story better.
So what, however, this decrease has happened, why it's happened,

(01:46):
and whoever can take the credit for it happening irrelevant
because the data tells us, doesn't it, that something is
working And we could go down a rabbit hole of
trying to work out what particular bit of government policy
or that. But there was it that that did the trick.
But I don't think even the government can its finger

(02:06):
on that one, which is pretty much what Justice Minister
Paul Goldsmith was saying when he spoke to Mike earlier.
I mean, I thought he sounded as surprised as the
rest of.

Speaker 3 (02:14):
Us fundamentally, the signal that we've been sending as a
government has been very clear right from the start. You know,
you've got to remember, for about five years, the previous
government was all about, you know, don't worry, it's somebody
else's fault if you're doing this, a culture of excuses.
We're focusing on reducing the prison population, all this sort
of stuff, and we came in very clearly saying no, no, no, no,

(02:37):
there is no somebody else to blame. People have got
to be personally accountable for this. We're not going to
be talking about all that, and our focus on is
reducing the number of victims of crime. That's what we've
got to focus the system on, and it's paying dividends.
But yeah, obviously we've got a lot of work to do,
a lot of work to do.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
And what Paul Goldsmith was getting it there is the
fact that the government is still to deliver a lot
of the things that's promised in terms of what harsher sentences,
less discounts than all of that. So maybe it'll get
even better, maybe, although make Mitchell said maybe it won't.
But for now, for now, in the here and now,
at eleven past nine, on Wednesday. What we know is

(03:19):
that the aim of having twenty thousand less violent crimes
by twenty twenty nine has been achieved four years early.
And I'm going to put that down to what Paul
Goldsmith was talking about there, the vibe that's been coming
from the government regarding crime, because I think that's as
important as any specific policies themselves. I mean, I've always
been doubtful about the gang patch ban, for example. I'm

(03:41):
not convinced yet on that one either, and I don't
actually think that it will have much of an impact
on violent crime stats. Just like the boot camps for
bad kids, I'm not a fan, but again we'll see.
But despite my misgivings on those things, you're not going
to hear me giving the government a hard time today.
I'm not going to be giving them a hard time

(04:02):
about these crime numbers. And while I'm not going to
credit any particular policy or law change, want to run
this past you. I reckon a big thing that's contributed
to this vibe that's been coming from the government is
the increased visibility of the police. I don't know how
they've done it, because the numbers of officers, the number

(04:26):
hasn't shot up or anything, but certainly where I am
in christ Churish, the police are way more visible. I mean,
must spend a lot of time in the central city
and I would say that I haven't seen as many
police on patrol in that part of town for years.
And it wasn't all that long ago when I'd have
business owners in the central city telling me about assaults

(04:47):
and things and staff being beaten up, and the cops
being nowhere to be seen and not even turning up
when they call them, even though the central police station
is what one hundred meters away. You're fast forward to
today and from where I am, it's a very different story.
So that's one thing I reckon has definitely made a difference,

(05:08):
and that's one thing I reckon is part of the
reason why violent crime is down.

Speaker 1 (05:13):
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