Kerre Woodham: Is Hipkins the man to lead Labour into the next election?

Let's talk politics, specifically the latest Taxpayers Union Curia poll. It showed a firming up of support for the Coalition Government and the parties that make that up, but Labour leader Chris Hipkins has lost support as preferred Prime Minister and the party is languishing. The party vote changes were all within the margin of error in this latest poll, but the preferred prime minister stakes saw Chris Hipkins dropping 6.1 percentage points.  

When you compare the previous Taxpayers Union Curia poll, which was in July, two months prior, so comparing apples with apples, National was up 1.4% to 39. Labour was 25.9%, that was up 0.8, but 25.9% is nothing to crow about. The Greens finally saw some downward movement after all their goings on, they seemed to be absolutely Teflon coated, but finally saw some movement down 1.5 on 11%. ACT, 8.8% around about what they got on election night, NZ First, 6.8%. Te Pati Māori 5%, up 1.5.  

Now parties do have a hard time after a trouncing in a general election and they generally look to the to the leader as the sacrificial lamb. Get rid of the leader, sacrifice them to the political gods, we can start afresh and we haven't got the bad juju from the previous election. Look at National – they had five leaders in five years before settling on Christopher Luxon. Labour after the Helen Clark years saw Phil Goff, David Shearer, David Cunliffe, Andrew Little, then finally Jacinda Ardern. Andrew Little made the call to resign just seven weeks out from the 2017 election, and history will reflect that Little's call was one of New Zealand political leadership's gutsiest. Cunliffe, Shearer and Little all went when the polls fell too low for comfort, and that was around the 24 to 25% mark.  

So here we've got Labour sitting on 26%, that is dangerously close to the knives being sharpened. Again, I think the only thing that's saving him is what saved previous political leaders from both parties: the fact that there is no obvious choice to replace him. When the party's been decimated and all the pretenders to the throne have been turfed out of office, your options are few. Chris Hipkins, when I spoke to him a couple of weeks ago was all Chipper Chippy.   

“So you will be leader leading Labour into the next election against Christopher Luxon?” “Absolutely.” 

Yep, absolutely. He was confident on-air. He was confident off-air. Looking forward to it. Had a big think, have I got in in me? Yes I have. Didn't really get a chance to do what I wanted to do when I took over from Jacinda Ardern.  She said I can't do it, I said, well, I will, and I'll take us up to the election. Not really me, he said. It wasn't really my party. There was a lot of Sergeant Schultz, I see nothing, wasn't me, didn't do it. But he was there all the way through the last Labour administrations regime, he was there front and centre. So, he might not have been Prime Minister, but he certainly was a key figure in that administration.  

He may be the obvious choice at the moment, but is he ever going to be able to lead Labour back to victory? There is a strong core of electors who don't want a centre right Coalition Government. You know you've got a good block of Greens and Labour and Te Pati Māori, and then you've got the swinging voters, those in the middle, those who voted National last time but could be persuaded. Is Chris Hipkins the man to galvanise those voters or is he yesterday's man? Too much associated with the past, with the Covid years? There were some die hards who say they saved lives, who will think that by being there his reputations enhanced. I think the majority say no. When you look at him you see the Covid years, you see enormous waste of taxpayer money.  

When he said, oh yes, we want to borrow more and tax more, I almost fell off my chai

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Carrywood of Mornings podcast from news
Talk set b Let's Talk politics.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Specifically, the latest Taxpayer's Union Curier poll showed affirming up
of support for the coalition government and the parties that
make that up, but Labor leader Chris Hipkins has lost
support as preferred prime minister in the party is languishing.

(00:34):
The party vote changes were all within the margin of
era in this latest poll, but the preferred prime minister
stakes saw Chris Hipkins dropping six point one percentage points.
When you compare the previous Taxpayers' Union Caurier poll, which
was in July, two months prior, they're comparing apples with apples.

(00:56):
National was up one point four percent to thirty nine.
Labour was twenty five point nine percent. It was up
zero point eight but twenty five point nine percent is
nothing to crow about. The Greens finally saw some downward
movement after all their goings on, they seem to be

(01:18):
absolutely teflon coated, but finally saw some movement. Down one
point five on eleven percent, Act eight point eight percent,
around about what they got on election night. New Zealand
first six point eight, Tapatimori five percent, up one point five. Now,

(01:39):
parties do have a hard time after a truncing in
a general election, and they generally look to the to
the leader as the sacrificial lamb. Get rid of the leader,
sacrifice them to the political gods. We can start afresh

(01:59):
and we haven't got the bad juju from the previous election.
Look at National, they had five leaders in five years
before settling on Christopher Luxen Labor after the Halen Clark years,
saw Phil Goff, David Cherer, David Cunliff, Andrew Little, then finally,
excuse me, just sind a adourn. Andrew Little made the

(02:23):
call to resign just seven weeks out from the twenty
seventeen election, and history will reflect that Little's call was
one of New Zealand political leadership's gutzest. Cunliff, Sharer and
Little all went when the polls fell too low for comfort,
and that was around the twenty four to twenty five

(02:46):
percent mark. So here we've got Labor sitting on twenty
six That is dangerously close to the knives being sharpened again.
I think the only thing that's saving him is what
saved previous political leaders from both parties, the fact that

(03:08):
there is no obvious choice to replace him. When your
party has been decimated and all the pretenders to the
throne have been turfed out of office, your options are few.
Chris Hipkins, when I spoke to him a couple of
weeks ago, was all chip and chippy. So you will
be leader leading Labor into the next election against Christopher Luxen. Absolutely, yep. Absolutely.

(03:32):
He was confident on here, He was confident off here, yep.
Looking forward to it. Had a big think, Have I
got it in me? Yes? I have. Didn't really get
a chance to do what I wanted to do when
I took over from Sinda Adurn. She said I can't
do it. I said, well I will, and I'll take

(03:53):
us up to the election. Not really me, he said,
it wasn't really my party. There was a lot of
you know, Sergeant Schultz, I see nothing wasn't me. Didn't
do it. But he was there all the way through
the last Labor administration's regime. He was there front and center.

(04:14):
Literally we saw him on the tally. So he might
not have been Prime Minister, but he certainly was a
key figure in that administration. So he may be the
obvious choice at the moment. But is he ever going
to be able to lead Labor back to victory. There

(04:35):
is a strong corps of electors who don't want a
center right coalition government. You know, you've got a good
block of Greens and Labor and Patimari and then you've
got the swinging voters, those in the middle, those who
voted national last time, but could be persuaded as Chris

(05:02):
Hopkins the man to galvanize those voters or is he yes,
today's man too much associated with the past, with the
COVID years. There will be some die hards who say
they saved lives, who will think that by being there
as reputations enhanced. I think the majority say no. When

(05:26):
you look at him, you see the COVID years, you
see enormous waste of taxpayer money. When he said, oh, yes,
we want to borrow more and tax more, I almost
fell off my chair, Like you seriously expect their electorate
to trust you with more money? You have got to

(05:47):
be getting so twenty five, twenty four to twenty five
percent is when the previous Labor leaders have been Gomburger
have been asked to look at other options within the
job market. Perhaps their talent could be better served elsewhere,

(06:08):
Labour's on twenty six percent. Is Chris Hopkins the man
to lead Lee Labor into the next election, or does
he need to make room for new ideas, fresh ideas
a new Labor leader.

Speaker 1 (06:25):
For more from carry Wood and Mornings, listen live to
News Talks A B from nine am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.