Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Carrywood and Mornings podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Hed b Now. Earlier this week, we were talking about
the Cook Islands and Prime Minister Mark Brown's visit to China.
He's due back to the Cooks sometime today. He says
he's aware there's a strong interest in the outcomes of
his China visit and will share details in the coming days.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has expressed concern the Cook Islands
(00:33):
didn't properly consult New Zealand on its proposed agreements with China.
Mark Brown says every conversation he has is guided by
what's best for the Cook Islands. In the past days,
so he's engaged in a number of critical discussions opening
the door to such collaboration as expanding marine research and
(00:53):
improving climate resilience. To discuss I'm joined by the Lecturer
of Politics at Munash University, doctor Locklan mcnamie. A very
good morning to you. Good morning, good to be with
you about self determination? Is New Zealand being a little
bit precious about the Cook's desire to make its own decisions.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Yeah, that's a good question and you can certainly understand
why Mark Brown might be a little frustrated by the
reaction because it is likely that this agreement will be
covering deep sea mining, which he is very invested in
and sees is kind of a way for the Cook
(01:35):
Islands to become financially sustainable and not so reliant on
assistance from New Zealand. And China is a major investor
in this area, so it's likely that this agreement is
going to be focusing on things like fishing and deep
sea mining. So you can see why you thought it
was not necessary to consult New Zealand for that reason. However,
(01:57):
it's still a bit impolite, and that's probably a legacy
of the bad blood that was created last year when
New Zealand vetoed his proposal to create a separate Cook
Island passport. It's certainly not something you would expect between
(02:18):
close diplomatic partners like New Zealand and the Cooks.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I do wonder if perhaps the relationship has been neglected.
Any relationship cannot be neglected, and the previous Foreign Minister,
Nanayama Huta, was not proactive, I think it would be
fair to say in her dealings with other nations.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Yeah, look, it's clearly everyone needs to get into a
room together and reset the relationship because there's quite it
appears there's quite a lot of bad blood between the
you know, the Mark Brown and with St Peters right now,
and the relationship is so important for both New Zealand
and the Cooks. So, you know, regardless of the broader
(03:03):
issues of play about China, which we can talk about,
the breakdown in communication, Like all conflicts, whether between families
or business partners, is usually due to a poor communication
and that's definitely the case here where the Cooks could
have been more open about the fact that they were
engaged in discussions with China, and New Zealand could also
(03:27):
have been better at maintaining a sense of what was
going on on the ground there.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Well, let's talk about the broader issues around China and
the Pacific. They're certainly not the first nation that they
have managed to gain access to. I mean, I think
Tonga has well. I wouldn't say Tonga as a country
has benefited enormously from Chinese interests. I'd say individuals within
(03:54):
Tonga have benefited enormously. And I love the way that
Mark Brown phrased it as marine research when we all
know he's talking about deep sea mining. But who will
benefit from having China exert influence and extend its interest
in the Cook Islands. Will it be individuals, will it
be the country the Cook Islands, or will it be
(04:15):
the country China who will benefit?
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah, and that is the concern about Chinese influence in
the Pacific is is You know, although some of the
security concerns might be overblown, Certainly Pacific Islands nations like
Tonga have borrowed to the hilt with Chinese money over
the past decade and now facing a debt crisis some
(04:40):
or two and this is really where the kind of
issues about governance come to place. So perhaps it was
poor lending decisions on China's part and poor borrowing decisions
on the Pacific Islanders have created this kind of financial crisis.
But now countries like New Zealand and Australia had to
(05:01):
kind of step in to provide finance. And the concern
I suppose you could say is that perhaps China could,
as it has done with some African countries where there
are similar debt crises, begin to lean on countries like
Tonga to allow Chinese, say fishermen, greater access to fisheries
(05:24):
or like in the Cooks, potentially gained greater access to
the seabed for deep sea mining. That's where I guess
you could imagine some of the concerns being about the
fact that these Pacific islanders are so indebted to China
right now that they might allow the kind of exploitation
of their resources in a way that's not really in
(05:45):
their own interests. But you know, having said that, I'm
sure Mark Brown or other leaders of the island's nations
would come back and say that it's not really for
countries like New Zealand or Australia to say what's in
their best interests because we don't have the best track
record with environmental protection. So that's where the debate is.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Isn't it part of the cunning plan, as Blackhead I
might say, to get nations indebted to it? Isn't that
part of the overall plan? And China has seen that
in Africa you do get nations indebted to you, and
therefore you go, I want my money, and they go, well, loh,
we've we got a resources funny that we could use those.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
Sure.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Look, so this is often called debt chat diplomacy and
It's definitely been a long standing concern against the Western
countries about Chinese lending. It's just there isn't a lot
of great evidence that it's actually turned out that way
for China. So a lot of the countries that have
entered debt crisis over the last few years, particularly since COVID,
(06:53):
have gone back to China and asked to delay their
debts to restructure, and we don't really see evidence that
China is getting security major things in return, like like
military bases. You do see basically China asking for collateral,
So okay, we want more oil or more copper in return,
(07:15):
but at the end of the day, China just wants
its money back. So a lot of these loans were
provided on commercial bases and by commercial actors in China
who who are under a lot of pressure to to
to make a financial return, and China has its own
debt problems, so at the end of the day, China
does want its money back in one way or another,
(07:36):
and so taking collateral in the form of fishing or
oil or copper is just another way to make that
money back. So you know, is that part of is
that a great grand plan on the part of China.
Not really, it's a it's a it's kind of poor
lending decisions and then now asking for like collateral in
(07:59):
the same way that like a bank would ask for
your house if you can't pay your mortgage back. It's
not a part of the plan on part of the
bank to take your house, but it's kind of what's
left when you can't repay.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
It's an interesting take on it. It's sort of taking
the encroaching yellow peril and inverted commas leans of the argument.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Yeah, I think just because you know, it's it's often
worth just disaggregating what China is, like it's not a
unitary actor, and it's the intentions are very often very
difficult to know, right because it is a closed country,
it's an authoritarian country, and so we just don't have
access to like what's going on in the minds of
its policymakers, which makes that kind of this I suppose,
(08:46):
as you said, yeah, yellow peril or like security fears
like really easy to to whip up, and you know,
and fair enough, like I think it is fair enough
for Australian and New Zealand leaders to be concerned given
China's military build up and threats to take over Taiwan.
But you know, the idea that China has some long
(09:08):
term grand plan to in debt countries and then create
military bases, it's just not the way that its lending
program has played out, which was really poorly coordinated. Individual
banks in China under a lot of pressure to quickly
extend loans, and now they're under a lot of pressure
to make that money back through through whatever means possible.
(09:29):
So just it's not really this kind of grand, intentional plan,
but the way that everything's played out.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Interesting take on it. Just finally, can you see a
situation where New Zealand would say, okay, you want to
be self determining, you're on your own.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Yeah, look that is that is essentially the threat that
New Zealand made to the Cooks last year. If they
decided they wanted to create their own passports and basically
make everyone in the Cooks dual dual citizens, New Zealand
would have would have effectively lost over its migration program
at that point because anyone could have become a cook
(10:10):
citizen and then become a New Zealand citizen. And so
they vetoed that and said, you know, if you want
that you have to become independent. So New Zealand does
have its red lines and I think that that's where
this where the New Zealand and Cooks need to go
right now, is to create a new agreement and be
clear about what exactly each country wants from one another,
(10:33):
what each other's red lines are, because that's a lot
of the ambiguities in the relationship have been kind of
exposed by this approach by Mark Brown to China and
clearly the relationship just needs a reset.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Lovely to talk with you, and thank you very very
much for giving us the benefit of your expertise. Dr
Lachlan McNamee from Monash University talking still prickly situation between
the Cook Islands and New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
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