November 4, 2025 • 8 mins
Today's rise in unemployment isn't unexpected.
Latest Stats NZ data shows the unemployment rate has reached an almost nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter.
160 thousand people have been looking for a job, while another 138 thousand have been wanting more work.
The Herald's Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham today's figures are exactly as forecast by economists.
He says the labour market will remain tough for a while yet because companies are nervous to hire, and some are still having to let staff go.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Kerry Wood and Morning's podcast from
News Talks, he'd.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Be Unemployment's officially risen again. The latest stats New Zealand
data shows the rate reached five point three percent in
the three months to September, up from five point two percent.
This is pretty much what economists were predicting. What they've
also been predicting is that we have reached the peak.
New Zealand Herald Business editor at largely and Dan, are
(00:30):
you predicting that? Good morning?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Yeah, five point three probably the peak. I mean, look
at it, when you look at how vague these statistics get.
In some ways, it doesn't mean that much. Whether it's
five point two, five point three, five point four, there's
a lot of other things going on below the hood.
So there's some ugly numbers which were expected. So we
hear economists going on all the time about unemployment being
(00:55):
a lagging piece of data. So while I'm busy desperately
looking very closely for green shoots in the economy, we
know that the unemployment is or that the labor market's
going to stay tough for a while yet because companies
are nervous to start expanding and hiring more people, and
(01:15):
some of them are still got cash FOW problems and
we'll be losing stuff. Yeah, I mean, so you're under
utilization rate, which.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I actually think is yeah, that's the bigger one is.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
They are more important in a way because it includes
unde employment. And so you've got one hundred and sixty
thousand people officially unemployed, but you've got another one hundred
and thirty eight thousand on top of that who say
they have you know, they have some work, so they
don't count as unemployed, but they would like more, which
means that if they're freelancers or part timers and so on,
which is a lot of our workforce now. And I
(01:46):
think that's one of the reasons that we don't get
those really high rates that we used to see in
the nineteen nineties because it's sort of masked a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
By side hustles and yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
People aren't working all working in traditional salary nine to
five jobs anymore. But look, I just read Westpac's Michael
Gordon out with a note very quickly. He said, you know, look,
so so it is what the economists predicted. It's not
going to change much for the Reserve Bank and for
the overall outlook, but he said some promising signs in
the number of hours being worked. So that suggests that
(02:21):
while people might still be underemployed and still say that
they are, they are getting a few more hours than
they were previously, so a little bit of positivity. They're
not much in terms of the employment itself was still
down slightly, so that suggests jobs growth isn't really there yet.
(02:42):
But it was pretty patchy around the country, so Auckland,
as it has been for a few quarters, worse than
other parts of the country. So six point one percent
unemployment in Auckland and better the further south you go.
So yeah, but if you're.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Going to cherry pick towns and things though too well,
regions took it all south way caustle and you know.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Well that's right, And you can look at things like
youth unemployment where you're getting up to fifteen over fifteen
percent for the fifteen to twenty four age group. I
know that's a focus for the government. We'll see, like
you know, those those new rules that have been brought
in around eighteen to nineteen year olds won't be in
effect yet or for a while, I guess, And hitting
(03:24):
the statistics for quite some times they won't really hit
the statistics, and I think it's December they bring it in.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Down, Yes, in the middle of next year.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
So we'll be middle of next year before we see.
But there is a there's a statistic that relates to
that specifically, which they call NEAT, which isn't very neat,
but it's n ee T and it's such an.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Education, apprenticeships or training.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Yeah, yeah, education and employment, education or training, And so
that rate remains very high. In fact, I think it
got slightly worse. I just looking to see where where
I had that in the story. But so you know,
it has been a trend that people that young people
(04:04):
have been staying in school a bit longer, they've been
going into training, and the participation rate, the number of
people who say that they're looking for work has come
down because of that. So that's a positive that might
spin out of things long term. I mean, when you
had a much better labor market, you know, possibly for
the worse, you had a lot of people jump into
(04:25):
jobs straight out of school that maybe didn't the jobs
didn't hang around, and then they're suddenly not not as
educated as they could have been. So you know, generally speaking,
a more educated and well trained labor force is going
to be better for us long term and hopefully mean
higher paying jobs and all that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
When it comes to those who want work but are
in relationships and their spouse or partner is earning too
much for them to get a job, is that that
data or.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
That's the job seeker data, So that's difference. They would
still be surveyed separately, you know, in terms of their
classification of the money they get from the government. The
government will effectively they don't get anything. No, well, they'll
it's like a means test. I guess they'll they'll look
at the household. And I've had some questions about that
(05:19):
and my columns recently. Actually, yes, interesting one. I mean,
you know, I guess if you are in a decent
relationship where you're sharing everything and doing everything right, then
there's some logic to that. But I know that this
isn't the circumstances for everyone all the time.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Well, yeah, but you're either seen as a unit of
work or you're not. And if you're used to working
and you're in a household where you're used to working,
there are I can't think of very many families where
somebody's income is gin money or you know, both of money,
or I guess.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
It depends if one partner is earning you know, one
hundred and fifty two hundred thousand, then would why would you?
You know, you'd need to means test it at some
level and then you can get into it. You know,
it seems to be the way we run the economy.
I felt it was. You know, it feels terribly unfair
when you're a young parent and you're both being you know,
(06:17):
both partners will be taxed at the higher rate when
it could be an income splitting or a household income. Yeah,
so you sort of lose on both sides because if
you feel like, well, if or if one person's income
is supporting five people in a house, you know they're
paying the same tax as someone who's got no dependence.
(06:38):
So yeah, this, you know, there are some things that
can seem unfair, but I guess it's a case of
how easy it is to administer and all those sort
of things.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Absolutely, so this is it. I don't know though, with
the gas and the manufacturers struggling to come up with
an affordable alternate power supply, I don't think we've seen
the end of manufacturers going on.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Manufacturing is still tough. There are some signs construction maybe
turning around. Building consents were a lot stronger than the
data that came out this week, so you know, those
interest rates are starting to do the job there. And
there's a big part of the economy that is built
around building so to speak. You know, so people whose
jobs relate to that. Yeah, I think it's possible that
(07:26):
you know, as I say, it could go to five
point four, We could see it's going to be tough
for another quarter or so there. But you know, it's
not the labor market data you look to for signs
of its recovery. It's business. Confidence is business and that's
been improving. Consumers hasn't improved much. I think consumers are
still feeling very weary. But if consumer confidence follows business confidence,
(07:49):
then you sort of get a bit of momentum rolling.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
And it's so interesting being in a city where there
is confidence, like just having a long weekend in Sydney. Yeah,
it's the people, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
Like even going to christ.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Church, you know it's probably cost you the same Yeah, no.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
I went to christ Church. It seems positivity and yeah,
and they've got some good things going on in christ
Church because of the way the rebuilds worked and all
that sort of stuff. But yeah, it is the positivity
and that is what is lacking.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
And that needs upon itself.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Yeah, quite possibly Wellington, although I haven't been to Wellington
for about a year.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Wellington's but it's also the weather. Like you if you're
in the sun and you're walking down to the beach
and you're surrounded by thriving you know, hospitality and retail
and all.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Lovely about the way that confidence turns on the on
the seasonal stuff and looking at the weather today hopefully
that you know, hopefully that's good news for the economy.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Oh god, the sunshine effect. All right, lovely to talk
as always, Thank you so much, Liam Dan, New Zealand
Harold's Business editor at Large.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
For more from Kerry Wooden Mornings, listen live to news
Talks it'd be from nine am weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Kerry Wood and Morning's podcast from
News Talks, he'd.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Be Unemployment's officially risen again. The latest stats New Zealand
data shows the rate reached five point three percent in
the three months to September, up from five point two percent.
This is pretty much what economists were predicting. What they've
also been predicting is that we have reached the peak.
New Zealand Herald Business editor at largely and Dan, are
(00:30):
you predicting that? Good morning?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Yeah, five point three probably the peak. I mean, look
at it, when you look at how vague these statistics get.
In some ways, it doesn't mean that much. Whether it's
five point two, five point three, five point four, there's
a lot of other things going on below the hood.
So there's some ugly numbers which were expected. So we
hear economists going on all the time about unemployment being
(00:55):
a lagging piece of data. So while I'm busy desperately
looking very closely for green shoots in the economy, we
know that the unemployment is or that the labor market's
going to stay tough for a while yet because companies
are nervous to start expanding and hiring more people, and
(01:15):
some of them are still got cash FOW problems and
we'll be losing stuff. Yeah, I mean, so you're under
utilization rate, which.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I actually think is yeah, that's the bigger one is.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
They are more important in a way because it includes
unde employment. And so you've got one hundred and sixty
thousand people officially unemployed, but you've got another one hundred
and thirty eight thousand on top of that who say
they have you know, they have some work, so they
don't count as unemployed, but they would like more, which
means that if they're freelancers or part timers and so on,
which is a lot of our workforce now. And I
(01:46):
think that's one of the reasons that we don't get
those really high rates that we used to see in
the nineteen nineties because it's sort of masked a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
By side hustles and yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
People aren't working all working in traditional salary nine to
five jobs anymore. But look, I just read Westpac's Michael
Gordon out with a note very quickly. He said, you know, look,
so so it is what the economists predicted. It's not
going to change much for the Reserve Bank and for
the overall outlook, but he said some promising signs in
the number of hours being worked. So that suggests that
(02:21):
while people might still be underemployed and still say that
they are, they are getting a few more hours than
they were previously, so a little bit of positivity. They're
not much in terms of the employment itself was still
down slightly, so that suggests jobs growth isn't really there yet.
(02:42):
But it was pretty patchy around the country, so Auckland,
as it has been for a few quarters, worse than
other parts of the country. So six point one percent
unemployment in Auckland and better the further south you go.
So yeah, but if you're.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Going to cherry pick towns and things though too well,
regions took it all south way caustle and you know.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Well that's right, And you can look at things like
youth unemployment where you're getting up to fifteen over fifteen
percent for the fifteen to twenty four age group. I
know that's a focus for the government. We'll see, like
you know, those those new rules that have been brought
in around eighteen to nineteen year olds won't be in
effect yet or for a while, I guess, And hitting
(03:24):
the statistics for quite some times they won't really hit
the statistics, and I think it's December they bring it in.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Down, Yes, in the middle of next year.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
So we'll be middle of next year before we see.
But there is a there's a statistic that relates to
that specifically, which they call NEAT, which isn't very neat,
but it's n ee T and it's such an.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Education, apprenticeships or training.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Yeah, yeah, education and employment, education or training, And so
that rate remains very high. In fact, I think it
got slightly worse. I just looking to see where where
I had that in the story. But so you know,
it has been a trend that people that young people
(04:04):
have been staying in school a bit longer, they've been
going into training, and the participation rate, the number of
people who say that they're looking for work has come
down because of that. So that's a positive that might
spin out of things long term. I mean, when you
had a much better labor market, you know, possibly for
the worse, you had a lot of people jump into
(04:25):
jobs straight out of school that maybe didn't the jobs
didn't hang around, and then they're suddenly not not as
educated as they could have been. So you know, generally speaking,
a more educated and well trained labor force is going
to be better for us long term and hopefully mean
higher paying jobs and all that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
When it comes to those who want work but are
in relationships and their spouse or partner is earning too
much for them to get a job, is that that
data or.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
That's the job seeker data, So that's difference. They would
still be surveyed separately, you know, in terms of their
classification of the money they get from the government. The
government will effectively they don't get anything. No, well, they'll
it's like a means test. I guess they'll they'll look
at the household. And I've had some questions about that
(05:19):
and my columns recently. Actually, yes, interesting one. I mean,
you know, I guess if you are in a decent
relationship where you're sharing everything and doing everything right, then
there's some logic to that. But I know that this
isn't the circumstances for everyone all the time.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Well, yeah, but you're either seen as a unit of
work or you're not. And if you're used to working
and you're in a household where you're used to working,
there are I can't think of very many families where
somebody's income is gin money or you know, both of money,
or I guess.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
It depends if one partner is earning you know, one
hundred and fifty two hundred thousand, then would why would you?
You know, you'd need to means test it at some
level and then you can get into it. You know,
it seems to be the way we run the economy.
I felt it was. You know, it feels terribly unfair
when you're a young parent and you're both being you know,
(06:17):
both partners will be taxed at the higher rate when
it could be an income splitting or a household income. Yeah,
so you sort of lose on both sides because if
you feel like, well, if or if one person's income
is supporting five people in a house, you know they're
paying the same tax as someone who's got no dependence.
(06:38):
So yeah, this, you know, there are some things that
can seem unfair, but I guess it's a case of
how easy it is to administer and all those sort
of things.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Absolutely, so this is it. I don't know though, with
the gas and the manufacturers struggling to come up with
an affordable alternate power supply, I don't think we've seen
the end of manufacturers going on.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Manufacturing is still tough. There are some signs construction maybe
turning around. Building consents were a lot stronger than the
data that came out this week, so you know, those
interest rates are starting to do the job there. And
there's a big part of the economy that is built
around building so to speak. You know, so people whose
jobs relate to that. Yeah, I think it's possible that
(07:26):
you know, as I say, it could go to five
point four, We could see it's going to be tough
for another quarter or so there. But you know, it's
not the labor market data you look to for signs
of its recovery. It's business. Confidence is business and that's
been improving. Consumers hasn't improved much. I think consumers are
still feeling very weary. But if consumer confidence follows business confidence,
(07:49):
then you sort of get a bit of momentum rolling.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
And it's so interesting being in a city where there
is confidence, like just having a long weekend in Sydney. Yeah,
it's the people, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
Like even going to christ.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Church, you know it's probably cost you the same Yeah, no.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
I went to christ Church. It seems positivity and yeah,
and they've got some good things going on in christ
Church because of the way the rebuilds worked and all
that sort of stuff. But yeah, it is the positivity
and that is what is lacking.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
And that needs upon itself.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Yeah, quite possibly Wellington, although I haven't been to Wellington
for about a year.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Wellington's but it's also the weather. Like you if you're
in the sun and you're walking down to the beach
and you're surrounded by thriving you know, hospitality and retail
and all.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Lovely about the way that confidence turns on the on
the seasonal stuff and looking at the weather today hopefully
that you know, hopefully that's good news for the economy.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Oh god, the sunshine effect. All right, lovely to talk
as always, Thank you so much, Liam Dan, New Zealand
Harold's Business editor at Large.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
For more from Kerry Wooden Mornings, listen live to news
Talks it'd be from nine am weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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