May 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Newstalk ZB's Political Editor Jason Walls and Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen join Matt Heath and Tyler Adams to unpack Budget 2025.
They look through the big ticket announcement about the Government cutting their KiwiSaver contributions while requiring employers to cough up more.
Finance Minster Nicola Willis also revealed a $1 billion increase in funding for hospitals, more funding for learning support coordinators in schools, and changes to benefit rates for young people.
But most importantly, the team go through how all this is being funded through reprioritisations.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks it B.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Talking with you all afternoon. It's Matt Heathan Tyler Adams
Afternoons News Talks it B.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Well, the wait is over, no more sleeps until budget
day because it is here right now, and there are
some changes within that budget as you can expect. Key
we save it included, but two have a quick analysis
and break down some of the key highlights. We are
joined by our political editor Jason Wills. Jason get a mates.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Good afternoon boys, how are you doing? Happy budget afternoon?
I know we already said happy budget Day, but happy
after budget afternoon. We have just come out of the
most stressful ten minutes of the year for a reporter. Basically,
we have this ten minute window where we're allowed to
file stories, so we're making sure the logistics of what
happens in terms of that news bulletin that you just heard,
(01:04):
and the incredible magnanimous Sophie trigger huss as always from
the governments or from the budget lock up room down
to zb's offices. So we're ready to go. How are
you feeling, Brad? I'm feeling good.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
I mean, there's a lot of detail to go through,
but I think we're pretty well across at some big
stuff that we sort of knew about, some stuff we
probably didn't think would come through, but then a whole
lot of other small details that we're still going to
have to get wrap our heads around for the next hour.
Speaker 5 (01:28):
Well, what are the highlights? Should we kick right into
the highlights?
Speaker 3 (01:32):
We'll kick right into the highlights. I would have to say,
probably the one thing in here that you're going to
be hearing about for the rest of today and potentially
the next couple of years is those changes to Kiwi Saver.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
It.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
We knew that this was coming, but we've got some
confirmation today. Budget twenty twenty five improves kei We Saves
to encourage Kiwis to save more for their first home
and retirement while making the scheme more fiscally sustainable. Now,
how's Nikola Willis going to do this? Well, she is
raising the default rate of employees and matching employer kei
(02:03):
We Saver contributions from three to four percent of salary
and wages. And that's face then over three years, so
the default rage. The default rate before was three percent
that is being lifted progressively to four percent. They're also
doing a number of other things and a lot of areas,
and you're going to hear us go through those in
the coming hour. But you know, in terms of other
(02:25):
major highlights, I mean, going into the budget, Brad, we
heard a lot about the reprioritization in terms of the
pay equity changes, and we've seen those numbers today.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Indeed, I mean, the government's looking to save nearly thirteen
billion dollars from not proceeding with the previous pay equity
changes that we're going to come through. That is a
substantial amount of the total savings that is funding or
allowing that funding for other initiatives. And Budget twenty twenty
five there is still money that the government has kept
aside for PA equity claims into the future, but they're
not telling us about it at the moment. They call
(02:55):
that commercially sensitive and they think it will threaten those
future conversations. But there is money set aside, indeed.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
And Nicola Willis has called this the growth budget, she's
called it the no BS Brad budget, Brad, what are
you calling it?
Speaker 4 (03:06):
I'm calling this the switch budget because you've seen a
lot of initiatives here that you're getting more from great,
but at the same time something's got to pay for it.
Other stuff as being cut out, so you're getting a
switch from one thing to another when it comes to
government spending.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
This time, bellas, this is incredibly interesting. What we're going
to do.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
We're going to play some messages and then come back
because we really want to zero in on that KEYWI
saver and those changes that will be significant for a
lot of businesses. So just hold there and we're going
to have some fun with it. It is ten past two.
We're joined by our chief political reporter Jason Walls and
CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. If you've got any questions
throughout this hour about the budget, text them through nine
(03:42):
two ninety two back fore shortly here on News Talks dB.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Going through the budget with a fine toothcom It's Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News
Talks dB.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Good afternoon, and we are breaking down budget twenty twenty
five with our chief political editor Jason Wolves kDa. Jason,
welcome back in good afternoon, and we've also got CEO
of Infometrics and principal economist Brad Olson.
Speaker 6 (04:09):
Great to have you as well, Brad, It's great to
be here.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
So let's break down keep we save it because this
will be big for a lot of people, affecting a
lot of New Zealanders and also a lot of businesses.
So Brad, just a question for you, how do you
think this will land for businesses? Having to increase that
contribution rate another percent? Is that going to worry some
of them?
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Look, I think it will be a question for particularly
some of the smaller businesses around how they achieve that.
I mean they're going to have to They're going to
have to figure out, of course, a way to make
it work. But I think that will then come down
to the conversation that they'll have with employees. You know,
do they just top it up in general? Does that
mean that you might have a little bit less take
home pay and a bit more that goes into the
Kiwi saver. Most most importantly, the government's also given this
(04:51):
a bit of time to bed in, so it's not
coming through late to night on budget night. That four
percent contribution rate not coming through until twenty twenty eight,
So a bit of time for businesses to figure out
how they pay for it at the same time and
probably most importantly, yes, you might have to pay a
bit more on Kei we Saver, but at the same
time you now a to have a much more greater
level of advanced appreciation. So I feel like from a
(05:12):
knit business point of view, Yep, you'll have to make
some key we saver changes, but you're probably happy enough overall.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
So with that sort of a rollout time, I guess
people a lot of it will be done in contract
negotiations going forward, as opposed to just happening right now
and being taken out of people's wages.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Well, that was the impression that Nicola Willis gave, because
that was one of the questions that I asked her
in the budget lock up. I mean, she was at
pains to talk about growth. This is the growth budget,
and I'm thinking, hang on a second, doesn't sound very
growth inducive for a company, a small company that's having
to ratchet up those key we Saver contributions. So exactly, so,
this is going to be the time when you're gonna
(05:49):
if you're out there and you're talking to your employer
right now, this is the time to have those conversations
about with you actually what or how this works within
your employment contribution as well. I mean, there is a
number of other things that happened in the key We
save a space, and Nicola Willis was quite keen to
point out that this was and she even referenced Michael
Collin when she was in there talking about such. You've
been rereading some of his speeches and she we just
(06:12):
have this overall sense that superannuation and retirement in New
Zealand is it's a bit risky. We've got some problems
into the future, and this is the government tackling it
head on. And there's also another component of this. The
annual government contribution will be halfed from twenty five cents
for every dollar a member contributes each year up to
a maximum of two hundred and sixty dollars. Members with
(06:34):
an income of more than one hundred and eighty thousand
dollars will no longer receive the government contribution. So they're
taking a bit of liability off their own books here.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Yes, So I mean what percentage of the people is
that going to affect that one hundred and eighty k
that's not going to save them a lot of money.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
Is it, Well, it saves them a bit over time,
But I think importantly it's one of those areas where
it's just pretty hard to defend these days and say, look,
we're government's going to give five hundred and twenty one
bucks every year to everyone, including those earning over one
hundred and eighty k. It just seems sort of unreasonable
and unsustainable. But I mean, the question I think going
forward will be will this sort of change how people save?
And some of I mean guys, you guys probably are
(07:09):
a presumer and key we saver as well. I mean,
what's your initial.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Reaction to it?
Speaker 4 (07:13):
Is it going to shift what you do with your
key saver or are you just going to sort of
plod along?
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Look, I'm pretty I'm pretty bullish ki we save a
kind of guy. I pump in a lot more than
I need to. And yeah, I'm the same. I mean,
it's too much away, but yeah, but yes, some of
it I don't.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Tell us more, tell us more, man, I know, I've
got to say, I've got to say, fellows an extra
one percent.
Speaker 6 (07:34):
Is it going to be a game changer? No, not
for me.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Will it be an extra incentive for perhaps younger workers?
To stay in that scheme, which is better for them
and better for us as a country. If we up
those saving levels, then I think that is a good thing.
But I do worry again about the extra pressure on
businesses at a time when they need all the help
they can get to boost that confidence to get us
out of the rutler and at the moment, but as
you say, Brad, moving it over the space of three years,
(08:01):
next year going to three point five and then on
April the first moving up to four percent, we'll give
them time to adjust, right.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Definitely, But I think as well, I mean, don't discount
how much of an impact it could have.
Speaker 7 (08:11):
It.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
I mean I know that you know, if you've been
in Key we save for a while. It might not
sound like a lot. But one of the scenarios that
comes through here. Let's assume that you've got a working parent, right,
they're currently earning about sixty thousand dollars. They've got they're
going to have a child at say twenty eight, and
then another one at thirty one. They're going to take
some savings out when they're thirty or so, they need
to purchase a home. That means that before they were
going to have about fifteen thousand, eight hundred bucks for
(08:33):
their first home deposit. Under these changes, for someone who
is starting to move through from age twenty five today,
they'll be now nine percent better off up to seventeen
thy two hundred from fifteen eight hundred.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
So it does.
Speaker 4 (08:45):
It makes a difference in terms of the house to posit.
More importantly, you go out to sixty five when you're
needing to use your Keiwi saver. Previously that working parent
would have had just under four hundred k of Kei
we Save to use. Now under this it'll be over
five hundred k. That's a big savings.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
And the other side of this, of course is that
big Kei We Saver capital pool in terms of how
much money there is there and to invest. And Nikola
Willis is really wanting to drive that sort of Kiwi assets.
I mean, at the moment ken we Save a membership
is three point three million people with a total of
one hundred and eleven point eight billion dollars in funds
under management. Even this small ratcheting up of three to
(09:21):
four is going to see that pie grow a lot bigger,
and Nicola Willis is helping a lot of that can
be used on funding some Kiwi infrastructure and some Kiwi assets.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Any mention of all at all around Super.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
Not directly. I think, in fact, that's probably the one
area the government doesn't want.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
To talk about that.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
I have looked at the numbers and I can tell
you that in the current fiscal year, New Zealand's going
to be spending twenty three billion dollars on New Zealand Super,
fourteen percent of total crown spending more than the education budget.
I mean, the numbers are starting to get a little
bit worrying in terms of just how big they are.
So look, every time we talk about Jesus the government
living within its means or not, remember that fourteen fifteen
(10:00):
percent of every single dollar that you were contributing through
on your text is going straight to Super and nothing else.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Yeah, very very nicely said, hey, there's a question here, yea,
Hey guys, could you please ask you experts. Would it
not have made more sense for the government or the
employee contribution to go up to four percent and then
they remove the tax on the three percent from the
employer contribution.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Yeah, there is a part of that that's come through
the government. I think is actually booking a little bit
of that additional tax revenue that they're getting. So, because
they need to sort of make the scheme sustainable, they're
actually now booking some of that additional revenue base maintaining
the tax on the employer contribution they're bringing forward. I
think it's something like half a billion dollars or so
that comes through. So they could have, but it would
(10:41):
have meant that the change was not only affecting households
and businesses, but also would have been affecting the government's
own spending. And I just don't think they were quite
as willing to let that one happen.
Speaker 6 (10:51):
Yeah, very good fellows.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
We're going to take a break, but when we come back,
let's have a chat about where the money is coming from.
That has been a big question with this budget, so
stand by for that. We're joined by Jason Walls, our
political editor, and CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. It is
twenty past two.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Who's getting paid and what's going on the backburner? Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News
Talk za'd be Yes.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
We are analyzing budget twenty twenty five with our political
editor Jason Walls and CEO of intermedi and for Metrix,
Brad Olson Fellers.
Speaker 6 (11:26):
Great to have you with us.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Thank you so much to Tay team.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
The big question always is where is the money coming from?
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Show me the money. That was Nichola Willis in the
house yesterday and you'll remember she learned at the feet
of John Key because she was in his office and
that was his iconic blind back in twenty eleven. But yes,
of course a Nicola Willis budget is going to be
all about where does the money come from? And of
course I mentioned it at the top, the changes to
to pay equity and to run you through those again,
(11:54):
eleven billion dollars operating over the forecast period that is
four years, and an additional one point eight billion allocated
for capital investments. Or take those two together you're looking
at thirteen billion dollars extra over the forecast period over
the next four years. Now, before the budget, there was
this interesting back and forth, wasn't there between the likes
of the act parties Brook van Velden and David Seymour
(12:16):
and the Prime Minister and Nikola Willis. In fact that
David Seymour said that Brookade quote saved the budget with
this amount of money, and Brad looking at as, I
don't think there's any way that could have got anywhere
near what they wanted to do without this money. No,
that's true.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
I mean the government could not have balanced the books
that they've got today. They couldn't have announced a lot
of these further initiatives. I think realistically, what would have
happened if they didn't as a government make these pay
equity changes. You wouldn't have seen some of those other
bigger announcements, in particular the likes of the one point
seven billion dollars or so for the investment boost like
that would have been just completely impossible to even provide for.
(12:50):
Government only had one point three billion dollars of operating allowance.
It's found it committed an extra six point seven billion
dollars in this budget of new spending. But to sort
of make all the numbers work, it's had to find
over five point three billion dollars worth of savings, a
lot of that coming from the pay equity changes.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
But some pay equity deals are still going to go through.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
I believe, well that's the government's priority on this. They've
said from the outset that you know they're not canceling
women's pay has been sort of the tagline and the
attack line from the opposition. In fact, Nicola Willis actually
while we were in there, encouraged unions to continue prosecuting
pay equity various different arrangements that they've gotten pay equity
(13:32):
cases going forward as well. But I mean Nicola Willis
did outline the magnitude of the increased amount of liability
on the books from these pay equity changes. I mean
back into twenty twenty, they were in sort of the
low billions, and she wouldn't give us the exact number
now because there was still a number of them that
are still being worked out and there's some commercial sensitivity there.
(13:55):
But the fact that they were able to essentially cut
thirteen billion dollars over four years shows how big this
thing had actually got.
Speaker 6 (14:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
Massive. I had no idea how big that was. Moving
on to health is some news around prescriptions.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Indeed, the Record Investment in Health Delivery is the title
of the press release, which I always have to laugh
at because every single government since government started, always talk
about how they've committed record amounts of money and health,
and technically every single time it's true because you've got
to account for inflation, you've got to account for population growth,
and if you weren't doing it, you'd be going backwards.
And you don't want to be the government that can't
(14:35):
say record investment and in health. But essentially what we've
got here is we've got Budget twenty twenty five providing
seven billion dollar vote increase to vote health, so that
is the health service in general, and that's over the
forecast period again four years includes one hundred one point
thirty seven billion per year to Health New Zealand's baseline,
so just to help with the normal running the day
(14:58):
to day cost of hospitals and whatnot. But there's a
new initiative that I thought find quite interesting that is
to include ninety one million dollars to increase prescription lengths
and four hundred and forty seven million dollars to support
increased access to primary care. So there's actually quite a
few new little initiatives going on as well as this
record investment. There's the little bits of funding along the way, and.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I note also there's some big investments to allow a
new emergency department in Wellington and a one hundred and
twenty eight bed building in Nelson so good for those
cities and communities.
Speaker 6 (15:32):
Nothing in there for Dunedin.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Nothing additional, I think probably importantly, and this was actually
a question that we did get into a little bit
as we're going through the budget. Of course, there's a
lot of other announcements that have already been made. They're
not part of Budget twenty twenty five, but they remain around,
so the likes of the huge amount of funding that
is still going towards Dunedin, some of the investments that
are still going into the likes of funged A hospital
up north. But there were sort of further and more
(15:55):
specific announcements this time around the likes of Nelson around Wellington,
but also coming through for the likes of Palmerston North
and parts of Auckland as well. So people should be
feeling that there is more money. More importantly, especially for Nelson,
that that build is now expected to i think be
two years further ahead of schedule. That's good because normally
infrastructure pressures means that stuff move out and blow out
(16:17):
and push out. These ones are actually being brought forward,
so important toe that level of investment. Let's be clear
that stuff is vitally needed across the country.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
And just back on what I was saying about prescriptions
very quickly, so a little bit more detail on that. Currently,
doctors and others and other prescribers can only prescribe most
medicines from maximum of three months at a time. Patients
must then pay their GP for follow up appointments. Now
that's been we've done to twelve months, So that's something
if you're getting prescriptions often, it's going to be quite
helpful for you.
Speaker 6 (16:44):
Yeah, that seems sensible to me absolutely.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
I mean there's been a lot of talk about our
health system being in critical condition over the past couple
of years. How do you think staff members the unions
will respond to the investment and how fellas?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Oh, you know what, I think the unions are going
to look at this budget and say, you know what,
it's great, I love it, I love everything.
Speaker 6 (17:02):
This government's line out the window.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
In fact, as we speak there about as I was
walking path, about a couple thousand people outside from unions
protesting the budget already. I mean, then we've made ready
or well maybe they saw an advanced copy that I
hadn't seen, but they're not happy yet.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Yeah, fellers, stick around because we're going to have a
chat about education next and the overall state of the economy.
Plenty to chat about there. We're joined by Jason Wolves,
our political editor and CEO of Infometrics, Brad Olsen. It
is twenty eight past two.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
You talk say headlines with.
Speaker 7 (17:39):
Blue bubble taxis It's no trouble with a blue bubble.
The Finance Minister has released Budget twenty twenty five. It
includes key we savior changes, the government harving it's yearly
contribution amount and introducing an income cap, seven billions going
into health and two point five billion into education over
(18:00):
four years. A business tax incentive will let twenty percent
of a new assets value be deducted from annual taxable
income if out five billion dollars has been found through
rep prioritizations. The recent changes to the pay equity regime
have saved the government nearly thirteen billion over four years.
(18:21):
Unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds won't be eligible for
job Seeker leaving parents to fund them, except some without
family support, and the Best Start tax credit will be
means tested from April twenty twenty six. The government oh's
one hundred and eighty five billion dollars expected to near
two hundred and forty billion in the next four years,
(18:43):
really disappointing. The one thing that scares Rugby star Hoya Miller.
You can find out more at NZID Herald Premium. Back
to matt Ethan Tyler Adams.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Thank you very much, Raylan, and we are breaking down
the NOBS budget Budget twenty twenty five with our political
editor Jason Walls and Infometric CEO brad Olsen fell As.
Lets have a chat about education.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
Yes, education, I mean, honestly, there's always lots of money
in education as well, but this didn't really take a
sort of a precedent that it didn't take a higher
standing than other places in the budget. I mean, there's
always lots of money for education every time around. In fact,
there was three hundred and eighty one million dollars in
new spending on initi education this year. We got the
(19:26):
largest boost, according to Erica Stanford, the largest boost to
learning support in a generation. They're good at writing the
press releases, aren't they. Erica says the government has been
delivering the most significant investments in learning support in a
generation to better support Kiwi kids. And then she goes
on to talk about budget twenty twenty five investing two
point five billion dollars over four years in education with
(19:49):
a focus on delivering transformational boosts to learning support funding.
And we do know that there is money in there
for other likes of teacher aides and other things like that.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
All right, I think as well with that learning support,
I mean, the reason that's so important this is a
part of the government's focus on social investment. They've identified
that these are some of the learners that if you
don't help them, you don't support them well at school,
they're not going to be able to reach their full potential.
So I do think in terms of yes, there's some
more money going into it, but the potential for change
is quite important. Shows as well that government is wanting
to target this spending a lot more. They've done the
(20:22):
same thing in tertiary education, where they're putting some additional
money into support not every university course, but very specifically
the STEM subject science, Technology, Engineering and maths so that
we can get some of that smarter, more productive people
out there on the tools.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
So nothing for my degree in philosophy, corrections and police.
There's been a bit of movement there.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
Indeed, we've seen a fair bit of funding that's come
through there from the government, more money going into the
likes of the court systems to ensure that there's better
legal aid and probably in a sense looking likely to
be more judges and similar coming through two hundred and
forty six million dollars more into the court system there
four hundred and eighty directly into police. That helps some
(21:03):
of the frontline salaries from the extra police that they're
trying to bring fullard and some other changes because at
the moment the police are sometimes operating with some rubbish
backroom systems and if we can spend more time having
them out on the beat and less time doing paperwork,
that seems to be.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
A good one.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Probably the biggest change though, coming in the correction space.
Government adding an extra three hundred and sixty eight new
corrections offices coming through that's worth four hundred and seventy
two million dollars over the four years, and a two
hundred and forty bed extension for new high security bids
at christ Church Men's Prison, clearly showing that the government
(21:39):
is expecting to have more high security offenders to lock up.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
And I'll tell you what, boys, this isn't the first
time the government has had to pour more money into
the correction's budget. You'll remember that was one of the
key areas of the budget last year and interestingly herald
political edit to Thomas Coglan asked the Prime Minister this
very question, Finance Minister, this very question. Essentially, are you
comfortable with the fact that you continue having to pour
money into corrections? And Nikola Willis, I don't know about
(22:04):
what you thought, Brad, but I thought her answer was.
I mean, it was very National Party ask not saying
there's anything wrong with that, but it was essentially, if
people keep committing crimes, we're going to keep locking them up.
That's just the way that it is. Keeping key we
safe is more important than saving a few pennies when
it comes to prisons.
Speaker 6 (22:19):
Yeah, well, I think as well.
Speaker 4 (22:20):
I mean, Matt, that's the sentiment you get from people
though writers that they are really focused on law and order.
They are expecting that, you know, when they go out,
that they are able to remain safe, that their businesses
aren't going to get robbed and some of all the time.
So there does seem to be a real level of
focus from the public overwhanting this law and order play
area of government to be funded a lot higher.
Speaker 6 (22:39):
Yeah, so that's funding for the police.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
That almost half a billion over four years to maintain
the frontline services. Is that going to help Mark Mitchell
reach his numbers that were promised before the election? He
said to answer a few questions on that. Will this
help him get a bit closer to that?
Speaker 4 (22:54):
That does seem to be the sort of focus coming
through the from Minister Mitchell. He's highlighted that this additional
funding quote remedies an underfunding increase to police numbers inherited
from the previous government. So there is money that's coming through.
What's also clear though, is that even when you start
to pour in more money for the people, you need
the associated kit, you need the police cars and everything
(23:16):
else that comes through. So government is trying to do
a bit more of that over time. Look, I think
they're probably up against it in terms of being able
to deliver all of those police quite as quickly, but
there is certainly money in the budget to provide it.
So when they're able to recruit, they should be able
to bring them through to the beak sooner rather than later.
Speaker 5 (23:32):
Yeah, all right, let's move on to the big one.
What is the state of our economy according to this budget.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Well, you'll be less than sorry to jump in before
you on this one. Brad. You are the economic expert.
I'm just a political talking head. But what we can
see is that you know it's This was probably the
least surprising part of the budget for me. You may
every budget I do the same thing. Our good friend
Craig Rennie, who works at the CTU now as their economists,
you would always tell me the same thing, that you
(24:00):
have to start the budget by turning to the back
of the budget and looking ahead as to what the
predictions were. And we're looking at it right now and
it's about as as we expected it to be, right Brad,
I mean I wasn't particularly surprised by the fact that
the surplus is twenty twenty nine it's wait then, at
two hundred and fourteen million dollars anything catch you on
the hoof?
Speaker 4 (24:19):
No, I mean very much on the economic side as expected.
Of course, the government's advisors Treasury have highlighted that things
are going to be tougher, the global economic environment is
not quite as good, trading partner growth is going to
be lower than before. All of that means that there's
just not going to be quite as much economic momentum
in the system. So very much, I think as expected,
(24:39):
although the challenge a little bit is that you've got
so many moving parts. You've got the changes in the
global settings that are coming through. You've got a number
of these budget proposals which should be trying to stimulate
a bit of growth. But I think for the government,
they'll be looking that for over time better of visions.
If they can start to get some better economic numbers
coming through, the treasury can book those, they can expect
some high taxs coming through. But for the moment, things
(25:01):
still remaining fairly grim. There is a recovery underway, but
it is going to be a slower slog.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
And I was actually, I mean, I guess I'm not
that surprised, but the debt numbers are still looking pretty grim.
I mean, we're at about one hundred and eighty five
billion dollars in terms of the debt level of the
government has now that balloons up to two hundred and
thirty eight billion dollars by twenty twenty nine. Now, the
government does measure its debt as a proportion of GDP,
and their argument is essentially as the economy grows, that
(25:29):
level of that proportionality actually either remains the same or
goes down, but it's staying pretty stagnant. And Nikola Willis
was really waxing lyrical about what the Treasury advice to
her has been, and she accepted it that that she
thought that we shouldn't go over fifty percent of debt
to GDP, And it just doesn't seem like there's any
(25:49):
impetus to get that debt down to a more manageable level.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
What do you think, rad I mean, look, the government
would have to just slash so much more spending, even
out at the end of the forecast period. We're talking
twenty twenty nine. At this point, government expenses as proportion
of GDP only just slipped below thirty one percent. They
weren't even at thirty before the pandemic. So it's going
to take make a long time to unwind this. But
I think below the surface, what was different for me
is that normally when we go into these economic updates
(26:15):
they come through every six months or so, we always
see that the government is going to bring in a
whole bunch less revenue, but they're going to spend a
whole bunch more That is what we've seen like the.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Last three four years.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
This time for the first time we've seen that. Yep, again,
revenue is going to be lower. The economy sucks a
bit more, but there was also lower spending that the
government is going to make under budget twenty twenty five
compared to the half year. It shows that slowly, but surely,
very slowly, they are trying to get those fiscal settings
under control.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
You've got to say, two hundred and forty billion is
a terrifying number, as it certainly is. A lot of
people are texting this through, and I know this is
a long question, but so many people text it through
that I have to ask of you guys, of you, Brad,
who do we owe the money to? Who do we
owe that one hundred and eighty five billion dollars to?
Speaker 4 (26:58):
Yeah, it's a great question. We owe it to a
whole bunch of people. Sometimes we effectively owe it to
ourselves and the likes of New Zealand retail banks will
own some of those IOUs with the government where you
know they've exchanged cash for an expectation that government will
pay them back in the future.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Some of it's overseas.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
Everyone likes to hold some government bonds. They think that
New Zealand's pretty stable. In fact, I think our credit
rating is now better than the US government, so people
trust us a bit more to part back.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Very interesting right stick around after we play some messages.
There's some major changes around benefits, so we'll get into that.
Then we're going to get a rating from you fellows
about the NOBS budget, maybe.
Speaker 6 (27:36):
A bit rating rating, so look forward to that.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
We are joined, of course by our political editor Jason Willson,
Infometric CEO Brad Olsen.
Speaker 6 (27:45):
It is nineteen to three going.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
Through the budget with a fine tooth code. It's Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams news talks.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
That'd be It certainly is, and we're joined by our
political editor Jason Willson, Infometrics CEO Brad Olson.
Speaker 5 (28:01):
Before we get to benefit changees, it was being bandied
around as the growth budget. What do we have in
there that supports growth in the country.
Speaker 7 (28:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
The biggest one coming through from the government was their
new policy, the Investment Boost Scheme. That's where it's a
big new tax incentive for businesses where effectively you buy
some new kit you can immediately deduct twenty percent of
the cost of that new asset on top of normal depreciation,
meaning that you've got a lower tax bill after at
the same year that you buy that new purchase. So
(28:31):
long story short, you're going to see a whole bunch
of businesses that are quite keen to go and invest
in some new kit. That should means that they make
not only higher profits over time, but they'll be more productive.
A few other specifics here and there. Probably the most
interesting one was that the government has set aside two
hundred million dollars for a crown stake in a new
gas field if they can find it, so Shane Jones
as Resource Minister looking to do a bit more gas activity.
(28:53):
Probably the most interesting that businesses might not like, but
it's probably still pretty important, is that IRD gets an
additional thirty five million dollars a year to go and
claw back some of the tax debt that people haven't paid.
And given that they've found something like three billion dollars already,
it's not a bad investment.
Speaker 6 (29:09):
Yeah, that will make a few people nervous.
Speaker 5 (29:11):
Get your books done people, exactly.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Hey, just going back to the tax break, So the
government forecast that could boost GDP by one percent and
wages by one point five percent over the next two decades.
Does that sound optimistic or about rite?
Speaker 3 (29:24):
It's probably about right.
Speaker 4 (29:25):
I mean I think a lot of people listening will
be going, hold on, I only get one percent over
the next like ten twenty years, is that really worth it?
Which is understandable. I mean, it's sort of hard for
government to massively massively increase GDP growth without like fundamentally
finding a whole new pot of gold that we never
thought about before. So these aren't too bad, especially because yep,
it takes you know, twenty years to get that one
(29:46):
percent increase, but about half of that GDP increase coming
just in the next five years, so it's not massive massive,
But I do think it just shifts the dial a
little bit so that businesses are able to invest a
bit more. And I think that geez, you think of
some of the old kits that New Zealand businesses seem
to have across the country. I think this will convince
a few more people to dip into their back pockets
make that big investment up because they can actually claim
(30:07):
it back on the tax.
Speaker 7 (30:08):
Uh.
Speaker 6 (30:08):
Very good.
Speaker 5 (30:09):
Speaking of big investments, what's the benefit changes that we've
seen in the budget.
Speaker 3 (30:15):
This is quite a fascinating one, and I say fascinating
for you guys, because this is going to make some
great talk back. Parents rather than the STAG will be
responsible for unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds who cannot
support themselves under planned benefit changes, and that's been announced
in the budget today. Employment Minister Louise Upstin says the
purpose of the welfare system is to support those who
(30:36):
need it the most. Our government is taking steps to
make sure work or study is the focus for young
people rather than being on welfare and where it says
that they're clearly signaling that if you're eighteen and nineteen
and you don't study or you're not in work, and
you're and you can't support yourself financially, you should be
looking for a job and you shouldn't be, as Nicola
Willis said, sitting at home playing PlayStation and this should
(30:57):
be giving you some incentive to get out there and
actually try and find a job.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Just on the I mean, it is a surprising announcement
that the eighteen and nineteen year olds will have the
job secret images benefits tested against the ap parents' income.
What is that income set at do we know.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
There's no announcements yet. Cabinet hasn't made those decisions. By
sounds of it, they'll be making those over the next
couple of weeks, but a pretty i think strong intention
from government that look, in the first case, it should
be your family that's looking after you, and only after
that will you sort of see that support from government,
similar i think in a sense to what you see
with some of the student loan supports and similar that
(31:34):
come through. But again this is a sort of wider
change I think where the government is going. Look, it
is going to be less money coming from the government,
more for households, businesses, organizations to sort of do it themselves,
and you do sort of again see this bit of
a switch around. It was interesting. One of the other
changes that the government announced in the sort of benefits
and social support areas was that they are expanding working
(31:56):
for families. They're changing their abatement thresholds so that about
one hundred and forty two thousand families will get an
extra three hundred and sixty odd dollars a year from
Working for Families. But at the same time, the best
start text credit for when you have a new child.
That's going to be a bita that you're going to
lose some money straight away if you're on higher income.
So much greater focus on means testing across the board.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Yeah, yeah, that's for sure.
Speaker 6 (32:20):
Right, let's have a chat about reaction.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
We'll start on the political side, Jason, what has been
the reaction from the various parties?
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Well, I can tell you right now. Let's cross live
into the house where Chris Hepkins is giving a speech
in reply to the budget. Have a listen.
Speaker 8 (32:33):
We ne she was talking about nobs while she was
being clear as the budget had no bold solutions. The
budget had no bread and shelter for vulnerable New Zealanders.
The budget had no back paid settlements for women who
have been fighting to have fair pay for far too long.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
And that's the sort of reaction you would expect from
the lakes of Chris Hepkins. We've seen the unions come
out basically seeing the same thing. The PSA says, the
budget confirms twelve point six billion dollar theft of wages
from women, pay equity betrayal. Lead Bear said the headline there.
Speaker 5 (33:06):
Were they where we you know, when we they started
this process and move things around a bit labor that
it was going to be twelve point six billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
I don't think that they were. I mean, what we're
hearing from Nikola Willis is that this whole thing blew
up to a degree that nobody was expecting. I mean,
Treasury seems to be really caught on the fly on
this one to see how big this got and labor now,
I mean there's some serious questions that needs to be
asked to the likes of Chris Hipkins and to I
(33:35):
mean Grant Robertson if you would return a call about
how they saw this getting so big and or did
they foresee this getting so big? And I'd like to
see sort of where they thought it was.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
What were they going to cut to come up with
that twelve point six billion?
Speaker 6 (33:48):
Yeah, great question. And the reaction from the business world.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
Have we got any reaction coming up at this stage
on some of those text breaks and this growth budget?
Speaker 3 (33:56):
Well, I tell you what my favorite thing about budget
Day is when I get back and the explosion of
my inbox of press releases so we can go through
and find a few. I mean, the first one that
I've clicked on now is the taxpayers union who were
also in the lock up. Remember there were them and
the CTU were going to get barred. But they say
that essentially National delivers another Labor Party budget and they
(34:16):
said so much for a growth budget, so they're not
really happy with the level of spending. I'll tell you
what though, boys, there was an interesting detail that we
saw in the lockup, and I'm sure Brad will be
quite aggrieved about this because it hit him personally. Nikola
Willis only took questions from the journalist journalists. Usually she
kind of canvasses the room and takes some from economists,
saw some analysts, and she didn't do it this time.
(34:37):
It was us. Did you feel personally attacked? Brad?
Speaker 4 (34:39):
Look, as someone who has this is my tenth budget
in a row that I've attended lockup for, I've asked
a question of every finance minister and all of those
up until today, I don't feel personally aggrieved. I don't
think it was personal to me. I just think that
the focus was a lot more on ensuring that people
could understand it. But it would have been helpful, I
think for a few questions to come over to the
endless side we do. I think we try and do
(35:01):
a good job of helping everyone else understand it. But
here's the rub. Of course, there are going to be
some people in the lockup in their endless area that
are going to ask gotcha questions and similar they're not
going to try and aid in the understanding. And so
I can sort of understand why the Finance Minister isn't
keen to go near it.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
Did you have some gotcha questions in your back pocket
that you missed out on asking?
Speaker 4 (35:18):
No, I had a very sensible question while I thought
at least in terms of some of the spending that's
going on. I mean, this is a very different budget approach.
Like previously, the government for years has always sort of
taken last year's budget as a given and added some
more stuff in. That's what the operating allowance was. This
time around, you saw six point seven billion dollars of
new spending five over five billion dollars worth of savings
(35:39):
come through. So like whatever happened last year, we cannot
assume it happens into the future. That's not a bad
place because it says that everything is up on the table.
But of course I'll have to try and relay that
to the Finance Minister via the airwaves of newsorts.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
You'd be rather than otherwise.
Speaker 6 (35:53):
Yeah, what we could do. We'll pass it on to Hither.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Actually, I think she'll have the Finance minister on her
show after four o'clock, so we will do that for you. Brad,
stick around after we play some messages. We're going to
get your guys' ratings for budget twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6 (36:06):
It is eight to three.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
What's your take call eight hundred eighty ten eighty and
have your stay on Budget twenty twenty five, mad Heathen
Tyler Adams afternoons on News Talk z B.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
News Talk as z'd be the final few minutes. We're
joined by political editor Jason Walls and informetrix Brad Olsen.
Speaker 5 (36:26):
I guess the final question is around fiscal impulse. The
balance is the government doing enough to lower debt without
stalling the economy stalling growth.
Speaker 4 (36:36):
Look, I think it is closely balanced. The governments still
running a structural deficit going into the future, so they're
still spending consistently more than they're able to earn in
That's still not the greatest position, but the gap is
closing over time, So I think on balance not the
worst outcome you could have had. People on one side
of politics will say it should have gone a lot harder.
Others will say it should have gone the other direction,
heaps more spending. I think the government's gone through a
(36:58):
narrow balancing act here.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Jeez, I'm glad you got that.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
Question, all right, So both of you, Jason will start
with you. Out of ten, how would you rate this budget?
Speaker 3 (37:07):
Part of ten, I'm going to get it a. Well,
what about out of twenty? I'm going to give it
a thirteen out of twenty because that's thirteen billion that
the government was able to take through these pay equity changes.
No matter what you think of the government's moves around these,
that's a heck of a lot of cheese. You know,
maybe broke, maybe Seymour was right. Maybe Brooke did save
the budget.
Speaker 5 (37:26):
Six and a half then.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
And bread.
Speaker 4 (37:30):
Oh look, I feel like you know down the middle
a little bit that the average seven that you always
would have given something not too hot, not too cold,
Because this, in my mind, is the switch at budget.
You get a bit of something, but you also lose
a bit of something. And so I think people will
be both please, displease, and everything else. But we'll probably
all be talking about something completely different in a week's time.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
God, he's good, isn't he?
Speaker 5 (37:48):
Was there any bsn't it?
Speaker 7 (37:51):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (37:51):
I couldn't possibly comment.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Put it this way, there's a lot of bs and
hotty that comes around all the time when it comes
to budget and reaction. You've heard of some of it
here from me this afternoon, but I think some other
good stuff coming out as we continue to unpack.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
The budget was good?
Speaker 6 (38:05):
Yeah, well that I mean a lot of people are
asking what was the lock up lunch? Like fellas, just
what work will you do?
Speaker 3 (38:10):
I didn't get any lunch.
Speaker 4 (38:11):
I was busy looking at the budget.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
You clearly just ate an editor. I delegate and eat.
That's my job.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Tho.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
There's some wilk sushi. There was some sausage rolls, a
bit of fruit.
Speaker 6 (38:21):
Yeah, not too bad, very good. Love it. Fellers really
enjoyed this hour. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
We'll let you get on because you've got a big
afternoon ahead of you, but.
Speaker 6 (38:29):
We'll catch you again soon.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
Thanks guys.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
That is Jason Wall's, our political editor and CEO of
Infometrics Brand Awesome. We're going to open up the phone
lines now, keen to get your thoughts about budget twenty
twenty five and will zero in on some of those highlights.
Speaker 6 (38:43):
You're listening to Matt and Tyler. Very very good Afternoon
June News.
Speaker 5 (38:46):
Coming up
Speaker 1 (38:48):
For more from News Talks at b Listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from News Talks it B.
Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Talking with you all afternoon. It's Matt Heathan Tyler Adams
Afternoons News Talks it B.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Well, the wait is over, no more sleeps until budget
day because it is here right now, and there are
some changes within that budget as you can expect. Key
we save it included, but two have a quick analysis
and break down some of the key highlights. We are
joined by our political editor Jason Wills. Jason get a mates.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Good afternoon boys, how are you doing? Happy budget afternoon?
I know we already said happy budget Day, but happy
after budget afternoon. We have just come out of the
most stressful ten minutes of the year for a reporter. Basically,
we have this ten minute window where we're allowed to
file stories, so we're making sure the logistics of what
happens in terms of that news bulletin that you just heard,
(01:04):
and the incredible magnanimous Sophie trigger huss as always from
the governments or from the budget lock up room down
to zb's offices. So we're ready to go. How are
you feeling, Brad? I'm feeling good.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
I mean, there's a lot of detail to go through,
but I think we're pretty well across at some big
stuff that we sort of knew about, some stuff we
probably didn't think would come through, but then a whole
lot of other small details that we're still going to
have to get wrap our heads around for the next hour.
Speaker 5 (01:28):
Well, what are the highlights? Should we kick right into
the highlights?
Speaker 3 (01:32):
We'll kick right into the highlights. I would have to say,
probably the one thing in here that you're going to
be hearing about for the rest of today and potentially
the next couple of years is those changes to Kiwi Saver.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
It.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
We knew that this was coming, but we've got some
confirmation today. Budget twenty twenty five improves kei We Saves
to encourage Kiwis to save more for their first home
and retirement while making the scheme more fiscally sustainable. Now,
how's Nikola Willis going to do this? Well, she is
raising the default rate of employees and matching employer kei
(02:03):
We Saver contributions from three to four percent of salary
and wages. And that's face then over three years, so
the default rage. The default rate before was three percent
that is being lifted progressively to four percent. They're also
doing a number of other things and a lot of areas,
and you're going to hear us go through those in
the coming hour. But you know, in terms of other
(02:25):
major highlights, I mean, going into the budget, Brad, we
heard a lot about the reprioritization in terms of the
pay equity changes, and we've seen those numbers today.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Indeed, I mean, the government's looking to save nearly thirteen
billion dollars from not proceeding with the previous pay equity
changes that we're going to come through. That is a
substantial amount of the total savings that is funding or
allowing that funding for other initiatives. And Budget twenty twenty
five there is still money that the government has kept
aside for PA equity claims into the future, but they're
not telling us about it at the moment. They call
(02:55):
that commercially sensitive and they think it will threaten those
future conversations. But there is money set aside, indeed.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
And Nicola Willis has called this the growth budget, she's
called it the no BS Brad budget, Brad, what are
you calling it?
Speaker 4 (03:06):
I'm calling this the switch budget because you've seen a
lot of initiatives here that you're getting more from great,
but at the same time something's got to pay for it.
Other stuff as being cut out, so you're getting a
switch from one thing to another when it comes to
government spending.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
This time, bellas, this is incredibly interesting. What we're going
to do.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
We're going to play some messages and then come back
because we really want to zero in on that KEYWI
saver and those changes that will be significant for a
lot of businesses. So just hold there and we're going
to have some fun with it. It is ten past two.
We're joined by our chief political reporter Jason Walls and
CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. If you've got any questions
throughout this hour about the budget, text them through nine
(03:42):
two ninety two back fore shortly here on News Talks dB.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Going through the budget with a fine toothcom It's Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News
Talks dB.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Good afternoon, and we are breaking down budget twenty twenty
five with our chief political editor Jason Wolves kDa. Jason,
welcome back in good afternoon, and we've also got CEO
of Infometrics and principal economist Brad Olson.
Speaker 6 (04:09):
Great to have you as well, Brad, It's great to
be here.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
So let's break down keep we save it because this
will be big for a lot of people, affecting a
lot of New Zealanders and also a lot of businesses.
So Brad, just a question for you, how do you
think this will land for businesses? Having to increase that
contribution rate another percent? Is that going to worry some
of them?
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Look, I think it will be a question for particularly
some of the smaller businesses around how they achieve that.
I mean they're going to have to They're going to
have to figure out, of course, a way to make
it work. But I think that will then come down
to the conversation that they'll have with employees. You know,
do they just top it up in general? Does that
mean that you might have a little bit less take
home pay and a bit more that goes into the
Kiwi saver. Most most importantly, the government's also given this
(04:51):
a bit of time to bed in, so it's not
coming through late to night on budget night. That four
percent contribution rate not coming through until twenty twenty eight,
So a bit of time for businesses to figure out
how they pay for it at the same time and
probably most importantly, yes, you might have to pay a
bit more on Kei we Saver, but at the same
time you now a to have a much more greater
level of advanced appreciation. So I feel like from a
(05:12):
knit business point of view, Yep, you'll have to make
some key we saver changes, but you're probably happy enough overall.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
So with that sort of a rollout time, I guess
people a lot of it will be done in contract
negotiations going forward, as opposed to just happening right now
and being taken out of people's wages.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Well, that was the impression that Nicola Willis gave, because
that was one of the questions that I asked her
in the budget lock up. I mean, she was at
pains to talk about growth. This is the growth budget,
and I'm thinking, hang on a second, doesn't sound very
growth inducive for a company, a small company that's having
to ratchet up those key we Saver contributions. So exactly, so,
this is going to be the time when you're gonna
(05:49):
if you're out there and you're talking to your employer
right now, this is the time to have those conversations
about with you actually what or how this works within
your employment contribution as well. I mean, there is a
number of other things that happened in the key We
save a space, and Nicola Willis was quite keen to
point out that this was and she even referenced Michael
Collin when she was in there talking about such. You've
been rereading some of his speeches and she we just
(06:12):
have this overall sense that superannuation and retirement in New
Zealand is it's a bit risky. We've got some problems
into the future, and this is the government tackling it
head on. And there's also another component of this. The
annual government contribution will be halfed from twenty five cents
for every dollar a member contributes each year up to
a maximum of two hundred and sixty dollars. Members with
(06:34):
an income of more than one hundred and eighty thousand
dollars will no longer receive the government contribution. So they're
taking a bit of liability off their own books here.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Yes, So I mean what percentage of the people is
that going to affect that one hundred and eighty k
that's not going to save them a lot of money.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
Is it, Well, it saves them a bit over time,
But I think importantly it's one of those areas where
it's just pretty hard to defend these days and say, look,
we're government's going to give five hundred and twenty one
bucks every year to everyone, including those earning over one
hundred and eighty k. It just seems sort of unreasonable
and unsustainable. But I mean, the question I think going
forward will be will this sort of change how people save?
And some of I mean guys, you guys probably are
(07:09):
a presumer and key we saver as well. I mean,
what's your initial.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Reaction to it?
Speaker 4 (07:13):
Is it going to shift what you do with your
key saver or are you just going to sort of
plod along?
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Look, I'm pretty I'm pretty bullish ki we save a
kind of guy. I pump in a lot more than
I need to. And yeah, I'm the same. I mean,
it's too much away, but yeah, but yes, some of
it I don't.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Tell us more, tell us more, man, I know, I've
got to say, I've got to say, fellows an extra
one percent.
Speaker 6 (07:34):
Is it going to be a game changer? No, not
for me.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Will it be an extra incentive for perhaps younger workers?
To stay in that scheme, which is better for them
and better for us as a country. If we up
those saving levels, then I think that is a good thing.
But I do worry again about the extra pressure on
businesses at a time when they need all the help
they can get to boost that confidence to get us
out of the rutler and at the moment, but as
you say, Brad, moving it over the space of three years,
(08:01):
next year going to three point five and then on
April the first moving up to four percent, we'll give
them time to adjust, right.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Definitely, But I think as well, I mean, don't discount
how much of an impact it could have.
Speaker 7 (08:11):
It.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
I mean I know that you know, if you've been
in Key we save for a while. It might not
sound like a lot. But one of the scenarios that
comes through here. Let's assume that you've got a working parent, right,
they're currently earning about sixty thousand dollars. They've got they're
going to have a child at say twenty eight, and
then another one at thirty one. They're going to take
some savings out when they're thirty or so, they need
to purchase a home. That means that before they were
going to have about fifteen thousand, eight hundred bucks for
(08:33):
their first home deposit. Under these changes, for someone who
is starting to move through from age twenty five today,
they'll be now nine percent better off up to seventeen
thy two hundred from fifteen eight hundred.
Speaker 6 (08:44):
So it does.
Speaker 4 (08:45):
It makes a difference in terms of the house to posit.
More importantly, you go out to sixty five when you're
needing to use your Keiwi saver. Previously that working parent
would have had just under four hundred k of Kei
we Save to use. Now under this it'll be over
five hundred k. That's a big savings.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
And the other side of this, of course is that
big Kei We Saver capital pool in terms of how
much money there is there and to invest. And Nikola
Willis is really wanting to drive that sort of Kiwi assets.
I mean, at the moment ken we Save a membership
is three point three million people with a total of
one hundred and eleven point eight billion dollars in funds
under management. Even this small ratcheting up of three to
(09:21):
four is going to see that pie grow a lot bigger,
and Nicola Willis is helping a lot of that can
be used on funding some Kiwi infrastructure and some Kiwi assets.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Any mention of all at all around Super.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
Not directly. I think, in fact, that's probably the one
area the government doesn't want.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
To talk about that.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
I have looked at the numbers and I can tell
you that in the current fiscal year, New Zealand's going
to be spending twenty three billion dollars on New Zealand Super,
fourteen percent of total crown spending more than the education budget.
I mean, the numbers are starting to get a little
bit worrying in terms of just how big they are.
So look, every time we talk about Jesus the government
living within its means or not, remember that fourteen fifteen
(10:00):
percent of every single dollar that you were contributing through
on your text is going straight to Super and nothing else.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Yeah, very very nicely said, hey, there's a question here, yea,
Hey guys, could you please ask you experts. Would it
not have made more sense for the government or the
employee contribution to go up to four percent and then
they remove the tax on the three percent from the
employer contribution.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Yeah, there is a part of that that's come through
the government. I think is actually booking a little bit
of that additional tax revenue that they're getting. So, because
they need to sort of make the scheme sustainable, they're
actually now booking some of that additional revenue base maintaining
the tax on the employer contribution they're bringing forward. I
think it's something like half a billion dollars or so
that comes through. So they could have, but it would
(10:41):
have meant that the change was not only affecting households
and businesses, but also would have been affecting the government's
own spending. And I just don't think they were quite
as willing to let that one happen.
Speaker 6 (10:51):
Yeah, very good fellows.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
We're going to take a break, but when we come back,
let's have a chat about where the money is coming from.
That has been a big question with this budget, so
stand by for that. We're joined by Jason Walls, our
political editor, and CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. It is
twenty past two.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Who's getting paid and what's going on the backburner? Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News
Talk za'd be Yes.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
We are analyzing budget twenty twenty five with our political
editor Jason Walls and CEO of intermedi and for Metrix,
Brad Olson Fellers.
Speaker 6 (11:26):
Great to have you with us.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Thank you so much to Tay team.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
The big question always is where is the money coming from?
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Show me the money. That was Nichola Willis in the
house yesterday and you'll remember she learned at the feet
of John Key because she was in his office and
that was his iconic blind back in twenty eleven. But yes,
of course a Nicola Willis budget is going to be
all about where does the money come from? And of
course I mentioned it at the top, the changes to
to pay equity and to run you through those again,
(11:54):
eleven billion dollars operating over the forecast period that is
four years, and an additional one point eight billion allocated
for capital investments. Or take those two together you're looking
at thirteen billion dollars extra over the forecast period over
the next four years. Now, before the budget, there was
this interesting back and forth, wasn't there between the likes
of the act parties Brook van Velden and David Seymour
(12:16):
and the Prime Minister and Nikola Willis. In fact that
David Seymour said that Brookade quote saved the budget with
this amount of money, and Brad looking at as, I
don't think there's any way that could have got anywhere
near what they wanted to do without this money. No,
that's true.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
I mean the government could not have balanced the books
that they've got today. They couldn't have announced a lot
of these further initiatives. I think realistically, what would have
happened if they didn't as a government make these pay
equity changes. You wouldn't have seen some of those other
bigger announcements, in particular the likes of the one point
seven billion dollars or so for the investment boost like
that would have been just completely impossible to even provide for.
(12:50):
Government only had one point three billion dollars of operating allowance.
It's found it committed an extra six point seven billion
dollars in this budget of new spending. But to sort
of make all the numbers work, it's had to find
over five point three billion dollars worth of savings, a
lot of that coming from the pay equity changes.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
But some pay equity deals are still going to go through.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
I believe, well that's the government's priority on this. They've
said from the outset that you know they're not canceling
women's pay has been sort of the tagline and the
attack line from the opposition. In fact, Nicola Willis actually
while we were in there, encouraged unions to continue prosecuting
pay equity various different arrangements that they've gotten pay equity
(13:32):
cases going forward as well. But I mean Nicola Willis
did outline the magnitude of the increased amount of liability
on the books from these pay equity changes. I mean
back into twenty twenty, they were in sort of the
low billions, and she wouldn't give us the exact number
now because there was still a number of them that
are still being worked out and there's some commercial sensitivity there.
(13:55):
But the fact that they were able to essentially cut
thirteen billion dollars over four years shows how big this
thing had actually got.
Speaker 6 (14:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
Massive. I had no idea how big that was. Moving
on to health is some news around prescriptions.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Indeed, the Record Investment in Health Delivery is the title
of the press release, which I always have to laugh
at because every single government since government started, always talk
about how they've committed record amounts of money and health,
and technically every single time it's true because you've got
to account for inflation, you've got to account for population growth,
and if you weren't doing it, you'd be going backwards.
And you don't want to be the government that can't
(14:35):
say record investment and in health. But essentially what we've
got here is we've got Budget twenty twenty five providing
seven billion dollar vote increase to vote health, so that
is the health service in general, and that's over the
forecast period again four years includes one hundred one point
thirty seven billion per year to Health New Zealand's baseline,
so just to help with the normal running the day
(14:58):
to day cost of hospitals and whatnot. But there's a
new initiative that I thought find quite interesting that is
to include ninety one million dollars to increase prescription lengths
and four hundred and forty seven million dollars to support
increased access to primary care. So there's actually quite a
few new little initiatives going on as well as this
record investment. There's the little bits of funding along the way, and.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I note also there's some big investments to allow a
new emergency department in Wellington and a one hundred and
twenty eight bed building in Nelson so good for those
cities and communities.
Speaker 6 (15:32):
Nothing in there for Dunedin.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Nothing additional, I think probably importantly, and this was actually
a question that we did get into a little bit
as we're going through the budget. Of course, there's a
lot of other announcements that have already been made. They're
not part of Budget twenty twenty five, but they remain around,
so the likes of the huge amount of funding that
is still going towards Dunedin, some of the investments that
are still going into the likes of funged A hospital
up north. But there were sort of further and more
(15:55):
specific announcements this time around the likes of Nelson around Wellington,
but also coming through for the likes of Palmerston North
and parts of Auckland as well. So people should be
feeling that there is more money. More importantly, especially for Nelson,
that that build is now expected to i think be
two years further ahead of schedule. That's good because normally
infrastructure pressures means that stuff move out and blow out
(16:17):
and push out. These ones are actually being brought forward,
so important toe that level of investment. Let's be clear
that stuff is vitally needed across the country.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
And just back on what I was saying about prescriptions
very quickly, so a little bit more detail on that. Currently,
doctors and others and other prescribers can only prescribe most
medicines from maximum of three months at a time. Patients
must then pay their GP for follow up appointments. Now
that's been we've done to twelve months, So that's something
if you're getting prescriptions often, it's going to be quite
helpful for you.
Speaker 6 (16:44):
Yeah, that seems sensible to me absolutely.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
I mean there's been a lot of talk about our
health system being in critical condition over the past couple
of years. How do you think staff members the unions
will respond to the investment and how fellas?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Oh, you know what, I think the unions are going
to look at this budget and say, you know what,
it's great, I love it, I love everything.
Speaker 6 (17:02):
This government's line out the window.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
In fact, as we speak there about as I was
walking path, about a couple thousand people outside from unions
protesting the budget already. I mean, then we've made ready
or well maybe they saw an advanced copy that I
hadn't seen, but they're not happy yet.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Yeah, fellers, stick around because we're going to have a
chat about education next and the overall state of the economy.
Plenty to chat about there. We're joined by Jason Wolves,
our political editor and CEO of Infometrics, Brad Olsen. It
is twenty eight past two.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
You talk say headlines with.
Speaker 7 (17:39):
Blue bubble taxis It's no trouble with a blue bubble.
The Finance Minister has released Budget twenty twenty five. It
includes key we savior changes, the government harving it's yearly
contribution amount and introducing an income cap, seven billions going
into health and two point five billion into education over
(18:00):
four years. A business tax incentive will let twenty percent
of a new assets value be deducted from annual taxable
income if out five billion dollars has been found through
rep prioritizations. The recent changes to the pay equity regime
have saved the government nearly thirteen billion over four years.
(18:21):
Unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds won't be eligible for
job Seeker leaving parents to fund them, except some without
family support, and the Best Start tax credit will be
means tested from April twenty twenty six. The government oh's
one hundred and eighty five billion dollars expected to near
two hundred and forty billion in the next four years,
(18:43):
really disappointing. The one thing that scares Rugby star Hoya Miller.
You can find out more at NZID Herald Premium. Back
to matt Ethan Tyler Adams.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Thank you very much, Raylan, and we are breaking down
the NOBS budget Budget twenty twenty five with our political
editor Jason Walls and Infometric CEO brad Olsen fell As.
Lets have a chat about education.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
Yes, education, I mean, honestly, there's always lots of money
in education as well, but this didn't really take a
sort of a precedent that it didn't take a higher
standing than other places in the budget. I mean, there's
always lots of money for education every time around. In fact,
there was three hundred and eighty one million dollars in
new spending on initi education this year. We got the
(19:26):
largest boost, according to Erica Stanford, the largest boost to
learning support in a generation. They're good at writing the
press releases, aren't they. Erica says the government has been
delivering the most significant investments in learning support in a
generation to better support Kiwi kids. And then she goes
on to talk about budget twenty twenty five investing two
point five billion dollars over four years in education with
(19:49):
a focus on delivering transformational boosts to learning support funding.
And we do know that there is money in there
for other likes of teacher aides and other things like that.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
All right, I think as well with that learning support,
I mean, the reason that's so important this is a
part of the government's focus on social investment. They've identified
that these are some of the learners that if you
don't help them, you don't support them well at school,
they're not going to be able to reach their full potential.
So I do think in terms of yes, there's some
more money going into it, but the potential for change
is quite important. Shows as well that government is wanting
to target this spending a lot more. They've done the
(20:22):
same thing in tertiary education, where they're putting some additional
money into support not every university course, but very specifically
the STEM subject science, Technology, Engineering and maths so that
we can get some of that smarter, more productive people
out there on the tools.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
So nothing for my degree in philosophy, corrections and police.
There's been a bit of movement there.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
Indeed, we've seen a fair bit of funding that's come
through there from the government, more money going into the
likes of the court systems to ensure that there's better
legal aid and probably in a sense looking likely to
be more judges and similar coming through two hundred and
forty six million dollars more into the court system there
four hundred and eighty directly into police. That helps some
(21:03):
of the frontline salaries from the extra police that they're
trying to bring fullard and some other changes because at
the moment the police are sometimes operating with some rubbish
backroom systems and if we can spend more time having
them out on the beat and less time doing paperwork,
that seems to be.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
A good one.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Probably the biggest change though, coming in the correction space.
Government adding an extra three hundred and sixty eight new
corrections offices coming through that's worth four hundred and seventy
two million dollars over the four years, and a two
hundred and forty bed extension for new high security bids
at christ Church Men's Prison, clearly showing that the government
(21:39):
is expecting to have more high security offenders to lock up.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
And I'll tell you what, boys, this isn't the first
time the government has had to pour more money into
the correction's budget. You'll remember that was one of the
key areas of the budget last year and interestingly herald
political edit to Thomas Coglan asked the Prime Minister this
very question, Finance Minister, this very question. Essentially, are you
comfortable with the fact that you continue having to pour
money into corrections? And Nikola Willis, I don't know about
(22:04):
what you thought, Brad, but I thought her answer was.
I mean, it was very National Party ask not saying
there's anything wrong with that, but it was essentially, if
people keep committing crimes, we're going to keep locking them up.
That's just the way that it is. Keeping key we
safe is more important than saving a few pennies when
it comes to prisons.
Speaker 6 (22:19):
Yeah, well, I think as well.
Speaker 4 (22:20):
I mean, Matt, that's the sentiment you get from people
though writers that they are really focused on law and order.
They are expecting that, you know, when they go out,
that they are able to remain safe, that their businesses
aren't going to get robbed and some of all the time.
So there does seem to be a real level of
focus from the public overwhanting this law and order play
area of government to be funded a lot higher.
Speaker 6 (22:39):
Yeah, so that's funding for the police.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
That almost half a billion over four years to maintain
the frontline services. Is that going to help Mark Mitchell
reach his numbers that were promised before the election? He
said to answer a few questions on that. Will this
help him get a bit closer to that?
Speaker 4 (22:54):
That does seem to be the sort of focus coming
through the from Minister Mitchell. He's highlighted that this additional
funding quote remedies an underfunding increase to police numbers inherited
from the previous government. So there is money that's coming through.
What's also clear though, is that even when you start
to pour in more money for the people, you need
the associated kit, you need the police cars and everything
(23:16):
else that comes through. So government is trying to do
a bit more of that over time. Look, I think
they're probably up against it in terms of being able
to deliver all of those police quite as quickly, but
there is certainly money in the budget to provide it.
So when they're able to recruit, they should be able
to bring them through to the beak sooner rather than later.
Speaker 5 (23:32):
Yeah, all right, let's move on to the big one.
What is the state of our economy according to this budget.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Well, you'll be less than sorry to jump in before
you on this one. Brad. You are the economic expert.
I'm just a political talking head. But what we can
see is that you know it's This was probably the
least surprising part of the budget for me. You may
every budget I do the same thing. Our good friend
Craig Rennie, who works at the CTU now as their economists,
you would always tell me the same thing, that you
(24:00):
have to start the budget by turning to the back
of the budget and looking ahead as to what the
predictions were. And we're looking at it right now and
it's about as as we expected it to be, right Brad,
I mean I wasn't particularly surprised by the fact that
the surplus is twenty twenty nine it's wait then, at
two hundred and fourteen million dollars anything catch you on
the hoof?
Speaker 4 (24:19):
No, I mean very much on the economic side as expected.
Of course, the government's advisors Treasury have highlighted that things
are going to be tougher, the global economic environment is
not quite as good, trading partner growth is going to
be lower than before. All of that means that there's
just not going to be quite as much economic momentum
in the system. So very much, I think as expected,
(24:39):
although the challenge a little bit is that you've got
so many moving parts. You've got the changes in the
global settings that are coming through. You've got a number
of these budget proposals which should be trying to stimulate
a bit of growth. But I think for the government,
they'll be looking that for over time better of visions.
If they can start to get some better economic numbers
coming through, the treasury can book those, they can expect
some high taxs coming through. But for the moment, things
(25:01):
still remaining fairly grim. There is a recovery underway, but
it is going to be a slower slog.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
And I was actually, I mean, I guess I'm not
that surprised, but the debt numbers are still looking pretty grim.
I mean, we're at about one hundred and eighty five
billion dollars in terms of the debt level of the
government has now that balloons up to two hundred and
thirty eight billion dollars by twenty twenty nine. Now, the
government does measure its debt as a proportion of GDP,
and their argument is essentially as the economy grows, that
(25:29):
level of that proportionality actually either remains the same or
goes down, but it's staying pretty stagnant. And Nikola Willis
was really waxing lyrical about what the Treasury advice to
her has been, and she accepted it that that she
thought that we shouldn't go over fifty percent of debt
to GDP, And it just doesn't seem like there's any
(25:49):
impetus to get that debt down to a more manageable level.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
What do you think, rad I mean, look, the government
would have to just slash so much more spending, even
out at the end of the forecast period. We're talking
twenty twenty nine. At this point, government expenses as proportion
of GDP only just slipped below thirty one percent. They
weren't even at thirty before the pandemic. So it's going
to take make a long time to unwind this. But
I think below the surface, what was different for me
is that normally when we go into these economic updates
(26:15):
they come through every six months or so, we always
see that the government is going to bring in a
whole bunch less revenue, but they're going to spend a
whole bunch more That is what we've seen like the.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Last three four years.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
This time for the first time we've seen that. Yep, again,
revenue is going to be lower. The economy sucks a
bit more, but there was also lower spending that the
government is going to make under budget twenty twenty five
compared to the half year. It shows that slowly, but surely,
very slowly, they are trying to get those fiscal settings
under control.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
You've got to say, two hundred and forty billion is
a terrifying number, as it certainly is. A lot of
people are texting this through, and I know this is
a long question, but so many people text it through
that I have to ask of you guys, of you, Brad,
who do we owe the money to? Who do we
owe that one hundred and eighty five billion dollars to?
Speaker 4 (26:58):
Yeah, it's a great question. We owe it to a
whole bunch of people. Sometimes we effectively owe it to
ourselves and the likes of New Zealand retail banks will
own some of those IOUs with the government where you
know they've exchanged cash for an expectation that government will
pay them back in the future.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Some of it's overseas.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
Everyone likes to hold some government bonds. They think that
New Zealand's pretty stable. In fact, I think our credit
rating is now better than the US government, so people
trust us a bit more to part back.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Very interesting right stick around after we play some messages.
There's some major changes around benefits, so we'll get into that.
Then we're going to get a rating from you fellows
about the NOBS budget, maybe.
Speaker 6 (27:36):
A bit rating rating, so look forward to that.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
We are joined, of course by our political editor Jason Willson,
Infometric CEO Brad Olsen.
Speaker 6 (27:45):
It is nineteen to three going.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
Through the budget with a fine tooth code. It's Budget
twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams news talks.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
That'd be It certainly is, and we're joined by our
political editor Jason Willson, Infometrics CEO Brad Olson.
Speaker 5 (28:01):
Before we get to benefit changees, it was being bandied
around as the growth budget. What do we have in
there that supports growth in the country.
Speaker 7 (28:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
The biggest one coming through from the government was their
new policy, the Investment Boost Scheme. That's where it's a
big new tax incentive for businesses where effectively you buy
some new kit you can immediately deduct twenty percent of
the cost of that new asset on top of normal depreciation,
meaning that you've got a lower tax bill after at
the same year that you buy that new purchase. So
(28:31):
long story short, you're going to see a whole bunch
of businesses that are quite keen to go and invest
in some new kit. That should means that they make
not only higher profits over time, but they'll be more productive.
A few other specifics here and there. Probably the most
interesting one was that the government has set aside two
hundred million dollars for a crown stake in a new
gas field if they can find it, so Shane Jones
as Resource Minister looking to do a bit more gas activity.
(28:53):
Probably the most interesting that businesses might not like, but
it's probably still pretty important, is that IRD gets an
additional thirty five million dollars a year to go and
claw back some of the tax debt that people haven't paid.
And given that they've found something like three billion dollars already,
it's not a bad investment.
Speaker 6 (29:09):
Yeah, that will make a few people nervous.
Speaker 5 (29:11):
Get your books done people, exactly.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Hey, just going back to the tax break, So the
government forecast that could boost GDP by one percent and
wages by one point five percent over the next two decades.
Does that sound optimistic or about rite?
Speaker 3 (29:24):
It's probably about right.
Speaker 4 (29:25):
I mean I think a lot of people listening will
be going, hold on, I only get one percent over
the next like ten twenty years, is that really worth it?
Which is understandable. I mean, it's sort of hard for
government to massively massively increase GDP growth without like fundamentally
finding a whole new pot of gold that we never
thought about before. So these aren't too bad, especially because yep,
it takes you know, twenty years to get that one
(29:46):
percent increase, but about half of that GDP increase coming
just in the next five years, so it's not massive massive,
But I do think it just shifts the dial a
little bit so that businesses are able to invest a
bit more. And I think that geez, you think of
some of the old kits that New Zealand businesses seem
to have across the country. I think this will convince
a few more people to dip into their back pockets
make that big investment up because they can actually claim
(30:07):
it back on the tax.
Speaker 7 (30:08):
Uh.
Speaker 6 (30:08):
Very good.
Speaker 5 (30:09):
Speaking of big investments, what's the benefit changes that we've
seen in the budget.
Speaker 3 (30:15):
This is quite a fascinating one, and I say fascinating
for you guys, because this is going to make some
great talk back. Parents rather than the STAG will be
responsible for unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds who cannot
support themselves under planned benefit changes, and that's been announced
in the budget today. Employment Minister Louise Upstin says the
purpose of the welfare system is to support those who
(30:36):
need it the most. Our government is taking steps to
make sure work or study is the focus for young
people rather than being on welfare and where it says
that they're clearly signaling that if you're eighteen and nineteen
and you don't study or you're not in work, and
you're and you can't support yourself financially, you should be
looking for a job and you shouldn't be, as Nicola
Willis said, sitting at home playing PlayStation and this should
(30:57):
be giving you some incentive to get out there and
actually try and find a job.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Just on the I mean, it is a surprising announcement
that the eighteen and nineteen year olds will have the
job secret images benefits tested against the ap parents' income.
What is that income set at do we know.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
There's no announcements yet. Cabinet hasn't made those decisions. By
sounds of it, they'll be making those over the next
couple of weeks, but a pretty i think strong intention
from government that look, in the first case, it should
be your family that's looking after you, and only after
that will you sort of see that support from government,
similar i think in a sense to what you see
with some of the student loan supports and similar that
(31:34):
come through. But again this is a sort of wider
change I think where the government is going. Look, it
is going to be less money coming from the government,
more for households, businesses, organizations to sort of do it themselves,
and you do sort of again see this bit of
a switch around. It was interesting. One of the other
changes that the government announced in the sort of benefits
and social support areas was that they are expanding working
(31:56):
for families. They're changing their abatement thresholds so that about
one hundred and forty two thousand families will get an
extra three hundred and sixty odd dollars a year from
Working for Families. But at the same time, the best
start text credit for when you have a new child.
That's going to be a bita that you're going to
lose some money straight away if you're on higher income.
So much greater focus on means testing across the board.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Yeah, yeah, that's for sure.
Speaker 6 (32:20):
Right, let's have a chat about reaction.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
We'll start on the political side, Jason, what has been
the reaction from the various parties?
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Well, I can tell you right now. Let's cross live
into the house where Chris Hepkins is giving a speech
in reply to the budget. Have a listen.
Speaker 8 (32:33):
We ne she was talking about nobs while she was
being clear as the budget had no bold solutions. The
budget had no bread and shelter for vulnerable New Zealanders.
The budget had no back paid settlements for women who
have been fighting to have fair pay for far too long.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
And that's the sort of reaction you would expect from
the lakes of Chris Hepkins. We've seen the unions come
out basically seeing the same thing. The PSA says, the
budget confirms twelve point six billion dollar theft of wages
from women, pay equity betrayal. Lead Bear said the headline there.
Speaker 5 (33:06):
Were they where we you know, when we they started
this process and move things around a bit labor that
it was going to be twelve point six billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
I don't think that they were. I mean, what we're
hearing from Nikola Willis is that this whole thing blew
up to a degree that nobody was expecting. I mean,
Treasury seems to be really caught on the fly on
this one to see how big this got and labor now,
I mean there's some serious questions that needs to be
asked to the likes of Chris Hipkins and to I
(33:35):
mean Grant Robertson if you would return a call about
how they saw this getting so big and or did
they foresee this getting so big? And I'd like to
see sort of where they thought it was.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
What were they going to cut to come up with
that twelve point six billion?
Speaker 6 (33:48):
Yeah, great question. And the reaction from the business world.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
Have we got any reaction coming up at this stage
on some of those text breaks and this growth budget?
Speaker 3 (33:56):
Well, I tell you what my favorite thing about budget
Day is when I get back and the explosion of
my inbox of press releases so we can go through
and find a few. I mean, the first one that
I've clicked on now is the taxpayers union who were
also in the lock up. Remember there were them and
the CTU were going to get barred. But they say
that essentially National delivers another Labor Party budget and they
(34:16):
said so much for a growth budget, so they're not
really happy with the level of spending. I'll tell you
what though, boys, there was an interesting detail that we
saw in the lockup, and I'm sure Brad will be
quite aggrieved about this because it hit him personally. Nikola
Willis only took questions from the journalist journalists. Usually she
kind of canvasses the room and takes some from economists,
saw some analysts, and she didn't do it this time.
(34:37):
It was us. Did you feel personally attacked? Brad?
Speaker 4 (34:39):
Look, as someone who has this is my tenth budget
in a row that I've attended lockup for, I've asked
a question of every finance minister and all of those
up until today, I don't feel personally aggrieved. I don't
think it was personal to me. I just think that
the focus was a lot more on ensuring that people
could understand it. But it would have been helpful, I
think for a few questions to come over to the
endless side we do. I think we try and do
(35:01):
a good job of helping everyone else understand it. But
here's the rub. Of course, there are going to be
some people in the lockup in their endless area that
are going to ask gotcha questions and similar they're not
going to try and aid in the understanding. And so
I can sort of understand why the Finance Minister isn't
keen to go near it.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
Did you have some gotcha questions in your back pocket
that you missed out on asking?
Speaker 4 (35:18):
No, I had a very sensible question while I thought
at least in terms of some of the spending that's
going on. I mean, this is a very different budget approach.
Like previously, the government for years has always sort of
taken last year's budget as a given and added some
more stuff in. That's what the operating allowance was. This
time around, you saw six point seven billion dollars of
new spending five over five billion dollars worth of savings
(35:39):
come through. So like whatever happened last year, we cannot
assume it happens into the future. That's not a bad
place because it says that everything is up on the table.
But of course I'll have to try and relay that
to the Finance Minister via the airwaves of newsorts.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
You'd be rather than otherwise.
Speaker 6 (35:53):
Yeah, what we could do. We'll pass it on to Hither.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Actually, I think she'll have the Finance minister on her
show after four o'clock, so we will do that for you. Brad,
stick around after we play some messages. We're going to
get your guys' ratings for budget twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6 (36:06):
It is eight to three.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
What's your take call eight hundred eighty ten eighty and
have your stay on Budget twenty twenty five, mad Heathen
Tyler Adams afternoons on News Talk z B.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
News Talk as z'd be the final few minutes. We're
joined by political editor Jason Walls and informetrix Brad Olsen.
Speaker 5 (36:26):
I guess the final question is around fiscal impulse. The
balance is the government doing enough to lower debt without
stalling the economy stalling growth.
Speaker 4 (36:36):
Look, I think it is closely balanced. The governments still
running a structural deficit going into the future, so they're
still spending consistently more than they're able to earn in
That's still not the greatest position, but the gap is
closing over time, So I think on balance not the
worst outcome you could have had. People on one side
of politics will say it should have gone a lot harder.
Others will say it should have gone the other direction,
heaps more spending. I think the government's gone through a
(36:58):
narrow balancing act here.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Jeez, I'm glad you got that.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
Question, all right, So both of you, Jason will start
with you. Out of ten, how would you rate this budget?
Speaker 3 (37:07):
Part of ten, I'm going to get it a. Well,
what about out of twenty? I'm going to give it
a thirteen out of twenty because that's thirteen billion that
the government was able to take through these pay equity changes.
No matter what you think of the government's moves around these,
that's a heck of a lot of cheese. You know,
maybe broke, maybe Seymour was right. Maybe Brooke did save
the budget.
Speaker 5 (37:26):
Six and a half then.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
And bread.
Speaker 4 (37:30):
Oh look, I feel like you know down the middle
a little bit that the average seven that you always
would have given something not too hot, not too cold,
Because this, in my mind, is the switch at budget.
You get a bit of something, but you also lose
a bit of something. And so I think people will
be both please, displease, and everything else. But we'll probably
all be talking about something completely different in a week's time.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
God, he's good, isn't he?
Speaker 5 (37:48):
Was there any bsn't it?
Speaker 7 (37:51):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (37:51):
I couldn't possibly comment.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Put it this way, there's a lot of bs and
hotty that comes around all the time when it comes
to budget and reaction. You've heard of some of it
here from me this afternoon, but I think some other
good stuff coming out as we continue to unpack.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
The budget was good?
Speaker 6 (38:05):
Yeah, well that I mean a lot of people are
asking what was the lock up lunch? Like fellas, just
what work will you do?
Speaker 3 (38:10):
I didn't get any lunch.
Speaker 4 (38:11):
I was busy looking at the budget.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
You clearly just ate an editor. I delegate and eat.
That's my job.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Tho.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
There's some wilk sushi. There was some sausage rolls, a
bit of fruit.
Speaker 6 (38:21):
Yeah, not too bad, very good. Love it. Fellers really
enjoyed this hour. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
We'll let you get on because you've got a big
afternoon ahead of you, but.
Speaker 6 (38:29):
We'll catch you again soon.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
Thanks guys.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
That is Jason Wall's, our political editor and CEO of
Infometrics Brand Awesome. We're going to open up the phone
lines now, keen to get your thoughts about budget twenty
twenty five and will zero in on some of those highlights.
Speaker 6 (38:43):
You're listening to Matt and Tyler. Very very good Afternoon
June News.
Speaker 5 (38:46):
Coming up
Speaker 1 (38:48):
For more from News Talks at b Listen live on
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