July 18, 2024 • 33 mins
It has been a tumultuous week in US politics, with former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump nearly assassinated in a shooting days out from the Republican National Convention. This happened as US President Joe Biden remains defiant over his future, despite growing calls for him to drop out.
To discuss what might happen next with both parties, and the November election, Thomas is joined by former National Party leader and US politics enthusiast, Todd Muller.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hello, and welcome to on the titles The New Zealand
Heralds Politics Podcast. I'm your host, Deputy Political editor of
The Herald, Thomas Coglan. Today we're going to go into
national There's really only one politics story in the world
at the moment, and that is the US presidential election.
To discuss that, I have a former New Zealand MP
and the only former New Zealand MP I think to
(00:25):
have expressed an ambition to become President of the United
States of America and to put that in handside Todd
Millard Todd, welcome.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Well, look, thanks Thomas, and it's great to be back
with you.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Former MP and current and current podcast. You've joined the
ranks of the podcast. Is what's the story? Old Gloria
is your American politics podcast?
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Yeah? It's good fun, isn't it? And frankly, there's just
so much to try and take in about what's going
on with that remarkable country at the moment.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So, I mean the attempt on Donald Trump's life this weekend,
I mean, as a long time watcher of American politics,
what does that mean for you? As far as the
presidential racist consumed and as far as the mieric is concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, I was absolutely staggered. I think everyone was. I mean,
it's sort of one of those moments where you possibly
will in time recall when you first heard about it,
because I was actually with friends at Waikik Island and
my daughter, who is studying journalism down in christ Church,
sent me one of these little pictures of which basically
said Trump's been shot, and I initially thought it was
(01:31):
one of those memes, right, I honestly thought it was
a nonsense and had to go on to a reputable
media outlet like New Zealand Herald to see that it
was indeed accurate, and then, like I'm sure most people
just sort of poured over the cell phone or obile
and TV back at the hotel to actually try and
(01:54):
get a sense of what happens. I mean, we've all
seen the quite extraordinary images of him clutching his ear,
falling to the ground, and then, of course, most remarkably
now in a picture which will become an icon piece
of iconography in American history, standing bloodied but unbowed, clenched
(02:15):
fist in the air, with Secret Service around him, in
an American flag in the distance. Just extraordinary scenes and
I'm sure like you, How on earth did this guy,
young twenty year old guy get up onto a roof
only one hundred and fifty meters away? I mean, I
actually cannot get my head round that, and unfortunately leads
(02:36):
to all sorts of conspiracy theories which will be unhelpful
in America, which is so on edge and so free
brile an environment at the moment. But I have had
the great privilege of going to America a number of times,
twice to the Republican Convention followed by a Democratic Convention.
I had never seen security like it, and we had
our own, our own secret service while we were over there.
(02:58):
The idea that the president of the United States, former president,
who has his own secret service security detail, could allow
someone to climb up the side of a barn, you know,
not particularly effectively. People people could see him doing it
and then take shots at the president, which took one
(03:19):
person's life and seriously injured to others and frankly an
inch another way, and would you know America would be
an absolute tumult at the moment.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, it's it's it's it's it's America, and it's you know,
it's good, not just for you know the fact that
it's always good when someone is not killed, which is
just an objective fact, but it's good for America that
that the President Trump was not was not was not
murdered that day because you know, Heaven only knows where
(03:50):
a miracle would be now if if that had happened,
and it is I really agree with you. I think
you actually have to. You have to go to America
and go to some of these. I never been to
a convention. I saw. I saw Joe Biden's motorcave, believe
the United Nations ones, and I was in a suit
because I was there reporting on on New Zealand and
(04:12):
the United Nations, and I just went to the corner
of the street to get a bit of lock. We
were miles away, and a Secret Service agent, very brusquely
told me that if we didn't move back to where
we've been standing originally about five minutes away, that he would,
you know, forcibly do something to us. That very and
they were the whole place was crawling with him. I
think you really need to. There's no there's nothing like
(04:34):
it in New Zealand where they they they scan every
inch of every environment.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
They have every possible.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Doubt, Yes, totally.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
And you look at the maps so that.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
The American media published some incredible satellite imagery and you
and you think it seems sort of basic almost that
this roof with an excellent advantage point over over the
rally will seemed to be completely unchecked.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
I think what will happen is, you know, I'm a
great believer you know in this whole conspiracy versus cockup,
it nearly always is cock up. And I think what
you'll find is after they do all the investigations, is
that clearly the stage and the tighter area where everyone
needed to go through checks, electronic checks about to go
(05:21):
in there, that was all lockdown. They would have done
a wider perimeter search and that would have been all clean,
and then it probably would have been handed over to
the local law enforcement agencies, which is you know, Thomas,
in America, they've just got layers of layers upon layers
of government and agencies, and it will have been some
agencies like probably local sheriff police area who would have
(05:44):
been accountable for keeping it safe, if you like secure,
And obviously that almost well fatally for the poor man
who was shot just protecting his kids from the burst
of the bullets. You know, what a terrible outcome.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Very terrible, you know, I mean, that's an incredible and
you are right about those layers. I mean another time
I was I happen to be catching a bus close
to where President who then President Obama was speaking in Oakland, California,
and they shut down several blocks around the theater he
was speaking. They didn't even want they didn't want cars
or buses to be It's that level of you know,
(06:21):
a president comes and then everything just stops while the
president is there.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
It's it's quite unlike anything.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
And you know, from your own experience in frontline politics
in New Zealand, there's nothing.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
There's nothing at all. I could still remember last year
when I was home when Michelle had ordered the local
countdown to drop off the groceries, and I answered it
and as a guy, Indian guy actually, and he recognized me,
not partly because of me, partly because my car with
my face on the side was sitting out the front.
(06:55):
And I took opened the door and let you know,
took the groceries off him, and he just he just said,
he looked at me, and he smiled and he said
if you lived in India, he said, a, I would
never be able to get this close. You would have
your own security, your own perimeters, your own everything. And
I said, well, it's luckily we're not like that here.
But look, the other part of your question was, so
(07:16):
you know, what's the impact. I think you can see
it playing out. You know, pretty much as we speak,
the polls that were already moving towards Trump talk about
that shortly look like Dove only firmed. And I mean
we talked about that iconic picture right of Trump standing
up bloodied but not bowed. I mean, there is something
(07:39):
deep in the American psyche about somebody that survives an
assassination attempt or you know, some particular violence and sort
of gets themselves up off the canvas to fight another day.
And when you actually think of how that all unfolded,
it was simply remarkable. You know, you get shot in
(08:00):
the air, you fall to the ground, you get up,
you push yourself above the Secret Service, and you shout fight, fight, Fight.
I mean that will just imprint itself in the lexicon
of American history. But more importantly than that, it plays
to something deep in that psyche of America that actually
(08:22):
even those people who don't like haven't particularly liked Trump's politics,
don't particularly like his ethics or morals, It will it
will resonate deeply with them that this is a guy
who actually has a character under pressure that people like
(08:42):
to think as Americans they have or would behave like.
And of course you contrast that with an eighty two
year old who seems compromised in terms of his own
acuity and health and mobility. And look, you just couldn't
look you, Chris couldn't write this stuff, Thomas could you.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
You'd be hard pressed to find a more stark contrast.
H I think candidates would would give their right arm
to be photographed in the way that Donald Trump was
(09:23):
this weekend. And that is the possibly the iconic photograph
of the decade, you know, maybe maybe even the first
half of the century.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
It's there's nothing nothing like it was.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
When I first saw that photograph, I just I couldn't
quite believe it was real. And even even the part
of the part of it was sort of this miraculous
placement one of them, which has the American flag flying
above his head in this clear blue sky. It's like
the elements of the whole world is kind of like
around the sky and a kind of a super supernatural
(09:57):
kind of kind of kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
But that plays to the American psyche right. I mean,
you saw what you saw, the amount of people, particularly
on the right of politics, who immediately said he's been
saved by God, you know, and we don't really get
as a frankly secular country, the impact of Christianity and
its broadest expression has in America. It is God and patriotism,
(10:27):
and it's all those elements are fused in that picture.
And you know, even Trump's first comments are subsequently saying that,
you know, he realizes, in his own words, he should
have been dead. He should be dead. He's not. Now
he's got a chance to, you know, to He's here
(10:48):
for a purpose. He wants to unify the country. We'll
see what that what that looks like, whether he can
hold back his sort of sort of naturally snarling and
contemptuous way of speaking to show some of that unity.
But it's it's completely turned this race on its head.
And frankly, sitting here now, it is very difficult to
(11:10):
see how President Biden can find a path to get
re elected.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Interesting too, in a country which you know has more
than a million people are serving in the military, millions
and millions upon millions of veterans who have served in
the military, where where the military is a very active
part of the lives of large parts of America, and
a country that likes to that that that that likes
(11:35):
to see it's it's it's military history is very much
or it's it's military is very much part of the president.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
You know, New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
Obviously, most countries are proud of their armed services, but
for many countries it's the thing of the past. Large
active services is something that happened in the past, and
you know, we currently have a military, but it's it's
role in most New Zealanders everyday lives is very small.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
It's not the case in America.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
And you look at a president like that and that photograph,
and you think that, you know, that is the sort
of person who who kind of embodies that that that triumphant,
unbowed spirit, that that that that many Americans would would
like to see become the kind of the spirit of
the country. A confident, kind of virile, kind of weirdly
(12:22):
like even youthful, even even though Trump himself is not
a young man, you're not not barely younger than than
than Biden. It's sort of that that that that image
and his his the mere effect of his survival kind
of embodies that.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
That does you know, the American Americans think that under
you know, they can understand why if you look back
over their history, they are an exceptional country. That is,
you know, has divine provenance, touched by God. That you know,
they have a special place in the world, and you
know all of their sort of challenges as they grew
(13:00):
to become a country. Know that, you know everything from
Western's on TV that you would watch through. I mean,
it's just it is so imbibed in their character and
their culture and their sense of self that and suddenly,
as you say, and I think you're so on the
money that it's the seventy year eight year old Trump
(13:23):
getting up from an assassination attempt with blood on his
face and a clenched fist, which instantly crystallizes that sense
of self in America, not the eighty two year old
diffident shuffling Biden, and very difficult for Biden to find
(13:44):
a way through. I mean, the polls don't look good
and we can talk a bit about that, but also
I've seen some commentary, I mean, Paul Kelly and The
Australian made a good observation today where essentially he argues
that it makes it very if you have called Donald
Trump a threat to democracy and some of the rhetoric
that the Democrats and Biden have used to frame Donald
(14:06):
Trump up as an existential threat to America, it's almost
impossible now to use that language against him without it
jarring really quite comprehensively with Americans. So, you know, how
do you frame up Trump as somebody who is unfit
to be president when he's just done something which to
(14:27):
every American sort of plays the deep sense of what
it is to be in America? You know, all those
not you know, the arguments are still there. Trump is
still as flawed to man in terms of his history,
and arguments can be made in terms of his ethics
and morals that he was last week, but the context
is just completely changed.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
What's interesting, you know that that was that was one
of the Biden campaigns's strongest arguments.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
Democracy is on the ballot.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
This man represents a threat not just to the sort
of living standards of Americans and American life, which is
you know, an argument that any candidate would make about
their opposition in any election, but to the institutions that
formed the bedrock of American democracy, which is sort of
you know that that's that's a fairly you don't always
play that card and an election. But because the allegation
(15:18):
that you're making is that this is an exceptional election.
This is not just I'm voting for spending in this
area or a tax cut in that area. You know,
a vote for Trump. The Biden campaign is saying as
a votes against the things that make America America and
would weaken the foundation of American democracy. And now you're
seeing this a Trump camp push back and say, well,
(15:38):
you can't you can't call for unity and you can't
call for turning the temperature down when some of the
arguments that you've been making have betten the very things
which have raised the temperature. And obviously it's quite premature
to talk about what has happened here in the motive,
but certainly if there is if the if, if if
the well, it's very difficult for for Biden to continue
(16:01):
making the case for lowering the temperature when for most
of the year, the argument that that the campaign has
been making is that this is a sort of a millinerial.
This is a millinerial and apocalyptic election, and elections above
elections that they have been raising the temperature. And then
(16:21):
and then the difficulty for Biden is that, you know,
if the election really is that important, he can't or
and the people around him certainly can't look at him
and say, well, if the election really is, if there
really is about the existence of America, is he really
the right person to be fighting for the continued survival
(16:42):
of you know, America as we know it.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Probably not.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
He's clearly not the right person. And the fact that
the Democrats cannot put to bed their internal dissatisfaction with
him as their candidate, it is a huge challenge for them,
you know. Unfortunately, he did perform exceptionally poorly in that debate.
(17:06):
We all saw it from the moment he shuffled on
to the stage. The contrast between his lack of acuity
and deafness intellectually and the ability to frame up a case,
not only his own case, but to critique Trump's. And
what was I thought an incredibly friendly environment for Biden
right where you just had two moderators, you both had
(17:29):
two minutes each. I mean most of the time Biden
didn't even get to finish his two minutes, So you know,
he just looks so out of depth, And of course
that has been the dominating conversation American politics for the
last three weeks. Now, of course, eclipsed in a way
that frankly, will I can't imagine being eclipsed. With the
(17:50):
assassination attempt. They have got a huge problem because if
he stays on the ticket, the polls taken prior to
the assassination in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona,
the Big Seven, Trump was leading in all of them
and that would be a big electoral college victory for
(18:13):
Trump if that came through. And now, of course the
assumption is, and we'll see the polling in the next
forty eight hours, that those numbers would have only breaked
for broken for Trump. Trump even more, I mean, he'sn't.
The Democrats are in deep trouble this sitting here now,
I can't see how they can win. But more critically,
(18:35):
it's going to impact the down ballot, as they call it,
because in America, you don't just vote for the president.
You vote for the president, the vice president, senators, congressmen,
and then your own state legislature and on it goes.
It's like hundreds of boxes. You've got a tick and
it's all partisan Democrat versus a Republican for all of
these different roles. And the concern is that the turnout
(18:59):
for the Democrats will be suppressed because they feel they
can't win. Trump will ensure and has picked for j D.
Varts will assist this that his team, his people get
out to vote. So you can easily see a result
where the Dems lose the presidency quite badly, don't come
anywhere near regaining the House, and obviously the Senate stays
(19:22):
Republican and it's it's not a good space for them.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
And we're just going to take a quick break and
will be back shortly. Well, welcome back to On the Times.
We're talking to Todd Mallett, former National Leader, former MP
and longtime in American politics.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Tragic about the US election.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
So yeah, so we were just talking about Joe Biden's
chances and that bad. So I've got on my second
screen here the polling averages and you know swing states,
the battleground states, and yeah, I mean Trump is basically
winning in all of them. In Minnesota and Virginia, Biden
(20:13):
has a very narrow lead. But everywhere else races that
are potentially close Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,
and Nevada, I mean some of them it's not even close.
And uses as you say this, as you said just
before the break, this is this VP pick from Donald Trump.
Jd Vance, author of Hillbilly Elergy, senator from Ohio and
(20:35):
former Trump critic. I mean, it appears that he will
help to sure sure a lot of Trump support in
some of these states that really need to go into
the red column. At the same time, it seems like
the Democrats have possibly missed the moment to replace Joe Biden.
It's it's very hard to replace a leader in the
United States, very very hard, or a candidate, I should.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
Say, yeah, it's a I think that's the key thing
is it's so different to the Westminster system where and
our political system. If you'd had a National Labor or
New Zealand First or whoever leader that had got themselves
into the position that Biden has, then the caucus would
have moved and there'd be a different leader. But it
(21:20):
doesn't work like that. The states themselves have what are
called primary elections, which is what's been happening for the
first half of this year, starting memorably with the Iowa
caucuses in the first week of January, and at the
party members of each one of those states decide who
they want is their candidate, and those processes have been
(21:43):
well completed, and of course, on the Democratic side, all
those various state competitions chose, not surprisingly the incumbent Biden
to stand again. And how that works is that each
state has a set amount of delegates that goes to
in this case the Democrat convence to formally confirm that
Biden is their candidate. Now that does happen next month,
(22:05):
it's happening right now in Milwaukee. For the Republican side,
people might have seen Donald Trump get formally nominated yesterday
with all the delegates down on the floor. I've been
to both conferences in twenty sixteen to see how that works.
It's a great piece of American theater. All the delegates
(22:27):
from each of the states standing behind their state sign
they get called from the speaker and they yell out,
you know, the great state of California gives their X
amount of delegates to the next President of the United States,
Donald Day Trump.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
I love all the little corny details.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
I think people from Virginia or West Virginia will wearing
like coal mining helmets, some of the people from Hawaiian
wearing Hawaiian shirts. And you know, it's very much like
everyone brings their one like their state's one big thing,
and it's the big kind of moment to talk about,
how you know, the greatest state in the Union.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
It takes all day for fifty for fifty states to say, oh,
by the way, our delegates go to in this case,
Donald Trump. So this is happening next month, and of
course he's the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, until that time
in August where they have their conference the DNC and
(23:24):
the delegates stand up and or commit to Biden. So
one of the potential mechanisms Thomas is that Joe Biden says, look, actually,
upon reflection, I'm not really the right guy to lead
the party into the November election, and so I'm going
to step aside and in doing so free up the
(23:46):
delegates who were all committed to vote for me, to
vote for whoever they think is the best candidate. But
there's all sorts of challenges about that because you would
naturally think that Vice President Kamala Harris would be the
then obvious per and for all those delegates to support.
But there are real concerns of her electability, particularly against
(24:07):
you know, Trump post assassination attempt. Gavin Newsom is the
governor of California, very erudite and sort of central cast
and kind of figure of American politics. It's something that
I could never aspire to be, despite wishing to be
as a young boy. You know, perfect teeth, perfect hair,
(24:27):
perfect sun tan, the whole nine yards.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
He he is quite perfect.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Yeah, he takes all those boxes. But you know, how
do they run a process which is now I mean
you're only talking three weeks away. But of course all
of that is predicated on Biden deciding that he's not
fit to be the president. And there's still a lot
of talk even today the former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is
(24:55):
essentially refusing to be drawn on her one hundred percent
confidence and Biden for obvious reasons. We can all see that.
You know, frankly, if Biden stays in the race. Trump's
go to win this thing, I think, quite comfortably.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
It's interesting to see the language softening as well. I mean,
the big kind of what do they call them, surrogates, Yes,
immediately after the immediately after the debate, and the sort
of the big, the big, the big beast of democratic politics.
President Obama in particular, after the debate, you know, just
trying to calm everything down. And then after that, I mean,
(25:31):
Obama got kind of quiet.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, Obama's very quiet.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
True, So it's true.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
And as I mean, as you say, it's you know,
you know, in New Zealand politics, there are many ways
of getting rid of your leader. But then you know,
in American politics, the really the pressures on the presumptive
nominee themselves to go. That's the key kind of decision maker,
and the key point in this process is what the
actual person who has been who has those delegates pledged
(26:02):
to him, is what he decides to do. It's very little,
there's very little else, and then there are all these
other kind of all these other things that flow from that.
Like you say, well, you know, if he says I'm out,
then of course he can. He can pleach his delegates
to someone else. So he is a big saying who
the next person is? But what is the process for
choosing that person and how does that play out? You know,
(26:24):
and the difficulties the Democrats are having all. I mean,
even prior to the assassination and prior to the debate,
there were issues. And I think Michigan has a large
number of Muslim voters who have been pretty supportive of
the Democrats but are splitting with the Democrats over the
over the Biden's support for Israel in Gaza. And that's
that's a massive issue in quite an important state, you know.
(26:45):
So American politics are so strange bit to us. In
New Zealand, it takes a large number of voters to
flee to create a large impact, But in America, a
small number of voters fleeing someone can create a large impact.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
It's very like that, yes, well, particularly because of the
way their electoral college works, where you know, it isn't driven. Ultimately,
you don't win the presidency by winning the most votes
across the country. You win the presidency by winning the
most votes in enough states to get you to a
total of two hundred and seventy In each state's electoral value,
(27:22):
if you like, as a function of their population. So
Montana is three, in California as what forty nine or
fifty something, and it's the first to two seventy. But
this open convention was essentially what is one of the
scenarios that you're talking about there. Bizarrely, that was what
happened in America up until the nineteen sixties. You know,
(27:43):
it's really the arrival of television. Television showed live what
it was like these open conventions, which was pretty rough
and ready America certainly does rough and ready politics, where
basically they sometimes went on for days. They saw the power,
the two parties saw the power of actually perhaps managing
(28:04):
this a little bit better, and so they had primaries
for the first time. Really gained importance in the nineteen sixties.
And so ironically there are mechanisms there for the Democrats
in particular, only because their convention hasn't occurred yet. And
so if there is a window, but it's a narrow window,
(28:25):
it's a three week window, and Biden would have to
call it very very quickly, and then I suspect it
would go to an open convention where you'd have Kamala
Harris versus two or three others, and those delegates would decide. Now. Interestingly,
if they decided to do it, I think they would
gain a huge amount of focus and interest in the country.
(28:48):
Just like the assassination attempt and Trump walking through the
RNC last night with his bandaged dear, you know, there
would probably be two one hundred million Americans would have
seen that, and it would have reflected on it. Really,
the only option they've got, in my opinion, is to
(29:09):
do an open convention like it used to be seventy
eighty years ago and have a genuine competition and the
two thousand delegates decide. I think that's really the only
chance for them to regain momentum. And even then they
don't have. They can't be sure that that is going
to mean that Trump's lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada,
(29:32):
and Arizona, which is really only the seven swing states
that count. All the other states are either firmly Republican
or firmly Democrat. They're already sort of counted in the
race to two seventy. Trump leads in all of those.
Who can be sure that a new Democrat nominee could
eat Trump's lead across those states.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
You did see an interesting little league in the New
York Times, I think it was before the assassination, about
about the Biden campaign doing some head to hit polling
Kamela Harris versus Donald Trump. Don't actually know how that
polling worked out, if it's anything like Carmla Harris's other poles.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Yeah, it was very great, but it's interesting lead that
by doing it.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
I did say some of that. It was it was
better for Harris than it was for Biden, but Trumps
still dominant.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
You thought it as well, you know, I think LBJ
announced he was and this is the game before the
the current kind of primary process, so you could do this,
But he announced that he wouldn't be seeking as party's nomination,
putting said in the ring in sixty eight before the
convention and walking away and obviously finishing his term. If
(30:42):
Biden wouldn't do this the same though, and were slightly
different really and and to you tube on having sought
the nomination, it would become almost logical to use the
twenty fifth Amendment to sort of remove remove him currently.
And that's another thing I think potentially in the wor
and is that if he's saying, well, look I can't
(31:03):
I can't continue to do this job, and the people
around him are saying I can't continue.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
He can't continue to do this.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
Job, well, you know, as he capable of doing it
at the moment, and should and should and should that
be used. And I think the threat of that hanging
over him and being the first president to have that
used against them, that would that I think is playing
to his decision making because that would that would hurt
quite a lot.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
I imagine what I can't imagine it, to be honest.
I think that Amendment to the Constitution was essentially established
for you know, people who might have had a stroke
or just genuinely incapacitated and can't do the job. I
think it's initial genesis was when Woodrow Wilson had a
(31:50):
stroke in his second term and essentially it was bedridden,
and the concern was his wife was largely running the show,
which has echoes to be honest, because the same criticism
as made of Jill Biden, she seems to be the
one driving President Biden to stay stay in the race.
I think the more likely as him if it is
(32:12):
to happen is to him to say, look, actually, I've
reflected on it. I don't think I've got the capacity
to do this for four more years, and we need
to have a younger standard bearer to take the Democratic
Party through the next election and beyond. I think that
is still not that likely, but I think that is
(32:33):
far more likely than invoking the twenty second Amendment to
try and force them to step down as president immediately.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Well, Tom, we are out of time. Hey, thank you,
thank you so much for joining us and amatiles. I
think you've had a couple of appearances now regular.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Oh that's fantastic.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Your American Politics podcast is What's the Story or Glory?
You can find that online. You get your podcast where
you can also find this podcast on the tiles. It
was us for another week. We'll be baking ex speak
with more on the tiles. Even Steals our producer, so
thanks to him, and thanks to Todd for for coming on.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Have a good week.
Hello, and welcome to on the titles The New Zealand
Heralds Politics Podcast. I'm your host, Deputy Political editor of
The Herald, Thomas Coglan. Today we're going to go into
national There's really only one politics story in the world
at the moment, and that is the US presidential election.
To discuss that, I have a former New Zealand MP
and the only former New Zealand MP I think to
(00:25):
have expressed an ambition to become President of the United
States of America and to put that in handside Todd
Millard Todd, welcome.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Well, look, thanks Thomas, and it's great to be back
with you.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Former MP and current and current podcast. You've joined the
ranks of the podcast. Is what's the story? Old Gloria
is your American politics podcast?
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Yeah? It's good fun, isn't it? And frankly, there's just
so much to try and take in about what's going
on with that remarkable country at the moment.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So, I mean the attempt on Donald Trump's life this weekend,
I mean, as a long time watcher of American politics,
what does that mean for you? As far as the
presidential racist consumed and as far as the mieric is concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, I was absolutely staggered. I think everyone was. I mean,
it's sort of one of those moments where you possibly
will in time recall when you first heard about it,
because I was actually with friends at Waikik Island and
my daughter, who is studying journalism down in christ Church,
sent me one of these little pictures of which basically
said Trump's been shot, and I initially thought it was
(01:31):
one of those memes, right, I honestly thought it was
a nonsense and had to go on to a reputable
media outlet like New Zealand Herald to see that it
was indeed accurate, and then, like I'm sure most people
just sort of poured over the cell phone or obile
and TV back at the hotel to actually try and
(01:54):
get a sense of what happens. I mean, we've all
seen the quite extraordinary images of him clutching his ear,
falling to the ground, and then, of course, most remarkably
now in a picture which will become an icon piece
of iconography in American history, standing bloodied but unbowed, clenched
(02:15):
fist in the air, with Secret Service around him, in
an American flag in the distance. Just extraordinary scenes and
I'm sure like you, How on earth did this guy,
young twenty year old guy get up onto a roof
only one hundred and fifty meters away? I mean, I
actually cannot get my head round that, and unfortunately leads
(02:36):
to all sorts of conspiracy theories which will be unhelpful
in America, which is so on edge and so free
brile an environment at the moment. But I have had
the great privilege of going to America a number of times,
twice to the Republican Convention followed by a Democratic Convention.
I had never seen security like it, and we had
our own, our own secret service while we were over there.
(02:58):
The idea that the president of the United States, former president,
who has his own secret service security detail, could allow
someone to climb up the side of a barn, you know,
not particularly effectively. People people could see him doing it
and then take shots at the president, which took one
(03:19):
person's life and seriously injured to others and frankly an
inch another way, and would you know America would be
an absolute tumult at the moment.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, it's it's it's it's it's America, and it's you know,
it's good, not just for you know the fact that
it's always good when someone is not killed, which is
just an objective fact, but it's good for America that
that the President Trump was not was not was not
murdered that day because you know, Heaven only knows where
(03:50):
a miracle would be now if if that had happened,
and it is I really agree with you. I think
you actually have to. You have to go to America
and go to some of these. I never been to
a convention. I saw. I saw Joe Biden's motorcave, believe
the United Nations ones, and I was in a suit
because I was there reporting on on New Zealand and
(04:12):
the United Nations, and I just went to the corner
of the street to get a bit of lock. We
were miles away, and a Secret Service agent, very brusquely
told me that if we didn't move back to where
we've been standing originally about five minutes away, that he would,
you know, forcibly do something to us. That very and
they were the whole place was crawling with him. I
think you really need to. There's no there's nothing like
(04:34):
it in New Zealand where they they they scan every
inch of every environment.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
They have every possible.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Doubt, Yes, totally.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
And you look at the maps so that.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
The American media published some incredible satellite imagery and you
and you think it seems sort of basic almost that
this roof with an excellent advantage point over over the
rally will seemed to be completely unchecked.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
I think what will happen is, you know, I'm a
great believer you know in this whole conspiracy versus cockup,
it nearly always is cock up. And I think what
you'll find is after they do all the investigations, is
that clearly the stage and the tighter area where everyone
needed to go through checks, electronic checks about to go
(05:21):
in there, that was all lockdown. They would have done
a wider perimeter search and that would have been all clean,
and then it probably would have been handed over to
the local law enforcement agencies, which is you know, Thomas,
in America, they've just got layers of layers upon layers
of government and agencies, and it will have been some
agencies like probably local sheriff police area who would have
(05:44):
been accountable for keeping it safe, if you like secure,
And obviously that almost well fatally for the poor man
who was shot just protecting his kids from the burst
of the bullets. You know, what a terrible outcome.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Very terrible, you know, I mean, that's an incredible and
you are right about those layers. I mean another time
I was I happen to be catching a bus close
to where President who then President Obama was speaking in Oakland, California,
and they shut down several blocks around the theater he
was speaking. They didn't even want they didn't want cars
or buses to be It's that level of you know,
(06:21):
a president comes and then everything just stops while the
president is there.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
It's it's quite unlike anything.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
And you know, from your own experience in frontline politics
in New Zealand, there's nothing.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
There's nothing at all. I could still remember last year
when I was home when Michelle had ordered the local
countdown to drop off the groceries, and I answered it
and as a guy, Indian guy actually, and he recognized me,
not partly because of me, partly because my car with
my face on the side was sitting out the front.
(06:55):
And I took opened the door and let you know,
took the groceries off him, and he just he just said,
he looked at me, and he smiled and he said
if you lived in India, he said, a, I would
never be able to get this close. You would have
your own security, your own perimeters, your own everything. And
I said, well, it's luckily we're not like that here.
But look, the other part of your question was, so
(07:16):
you know, what's the impact. I think you can see
it playing out. You know, pretty much as we speak,
the polls that were already moving towards Trump talk about
that shortly look like Dove only firmed. And I mean
we talked about that iconic picture right of Trump standing
up bloodied but not bowed. I mean, there is something
(07:39):
deep in the American psyche about somebody that survives an
assassination attempt or you know, some particular violence and sort
of gets themselves up off the canvas to fight another day.
And when you actually think of how that all unfolded,
it was simply remarkable. You know, you get shot in
(08:00):
the air, you fall to the ground, you get up,
you push yourself above the Secret Service, and you shout fight, fight, Fight.
I mean that will just imprint itself in the lexicon
of American history. But more importantly than that, it plays
to something deep in that psyche of America that actually
(08:22):
even those people who don't like haven't particularly liked Trump's politics,
don't particularly like his ethics or morals, It will it
will resonate deeply with them that this is a guy
who actually has a character under pressure that people like
(08:42):
to think as Americans they have or would behave like.
And of course you contrast that with an eighty two
year old who seems compromised in terms of his own
acuity and health and mobility. And look, you just couldn't
look you, Chris couldn't write this stuff, Thomas could you.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
You'd be hard pressed to find a more stark contrast.
H I think candidates would would give their right arm
to be photographed in the way that Donald Trump was
(09:23):
this weekend. And that is the possibly the iconic photograph
of the decade, you know, maybe maybe even the first
half of the century.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
It's there's nothing nothing like it was.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
When I first saw that photograph, I just I couldn't
quite believe it was real. And even even the part
of the part of it was sort of this miraculous
placement one of them, which has the American flag flying
above his head in this clear blue sky. It's like
the elements of the whole world is kind of like
around the sky and a kind of a super supernatural
(09:57):
kind of kind of kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
But that plays to the American psyche right. I mean,
you saw what you saw, the amount of people, particularly
on the right of politics, who immediately said he's been
saved by God, you know, and we don't really get
as a frankly secular country, the impact of Christianity and
its broadest expression has in America. It is God and patriotism,
(10:27):
and it's all those elements are fused in that picture.
And you know, even Trump's first comments are subsequently saying that,
you know, he realizes, in his own words, he should
have been dead. He should be dead. He's not. Now
he's got a chance to, you know, to He's here
(10:48):
for a purpose. He wants to unify the country. We'll
see what that what that looks like, whether he can
hold back his sort of sort of naturally snarling and
contemptuous way of speaking to show some of that unity.
But it's it's completely turned this race on its head.
And frankly, sitting here now, it is very difficult to
(11:10):
see how President Biden can find a path to get
re elected.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Interesting too, in a country which you know has more
than a million people are serving in the military, millions
and millions upon millions of veterans who have served in
the military, where where the military is a very active
part of the lives of large parts of America, and
a country that likes to that that that that likes
(11:35):
to see it's it's it's military history is very much
or it's it's military is very much part of the president.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
You know, New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
Obviously, most countries are proud of their armed services, but
for many countries it's the thing of the past. Large
active services is something that happened in the past, and
you know, we currently have a military, but it's it's
role in most New Zealanders everyday lives is very small.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
It's not the case in America.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
And you look at a president like that and that photograph,
and you think that, you know, that is the sort
of person who who kind of embodies that that that triumphant,
unbowed spirit, that that that that many Americans would would
like to see become the kind of the spirit of
the country. A confident, kind of virile, kind of weirdly
(12:22):
like even youthful, even even though Trump himself is not
a young man, you're not not barely younger than than
than Biden. It's sort of that that that that image
and his his the mere effect of his survival kind
of embodies that.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
That does you know, the American Americans think that under
you know, they can understand why if you look back
over their history, they are an exceptional country. That is,
you know, has divine provenance, touched by God. That you know,
they have a special place in the world, and you
know all of their sort of challenges as they grew
(13:00):
to become a country. Know that, you know everything from
Western's on TV that you would watch through. I mean,
it's just it is so imbibed in their character and
their culture and their sense of self that and suddenly,
as you say, and I think you're so on the
money that it's the seventy year eight year old Trump
(13:23):
getting up from an assassination attempt with blood on his
face and a clenched fist, which instantly crystallizes that sense
of self in America, not the eighty two year old
diffident shuffling Biden, and very difficult for Biden to find
(13:44):
a way through. I mean, the polls don't look good
and we can talk a bit about that, but also
I've seen some commentary, I mean, Paul Kelly and The
Australian made a good observation today where essentially he argues
that it makes it very if you have called Donald
Trump a threat to democracy and some of the rhetoric
that the Democrats and Biden have used to frame Donald
(14:06):
Trump up as an existential threat to America, it's almost
impossible now to use that language against him without it
jarring really quite comprehensively with Americans. So, you know, how
do you frame up Trump as somebody who is unfit
to be president when he's just done something which to
(14:27):
every American sort of plays the deep sense of what
it is to be in America? You know, all those
not you know, the arguments are still there. Trump is
still as flawed to man in terms of his history,
and arguments can be made in terms of his ethics
and morals that he was last week, but the context
is just completely changed.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
What's interesting, you know that that was that was one
of the Biden campaigns's strongest arguments.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
Democracy is on the ballot.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
This man represents a threat not just to the sort
of living standards of Americans and American life, which is
you know, an argument that any candidate would make about
their opposition in any election, but to the institutions that
formed the bedrock of American democracy, which is sort of
you know that that's that's a fairly you don't always
play that card and an election. But because the allegation
(15:18):
that you're making is that this is an exceptional election.
This is not just I'm voting for spending in this
area or a tax cut in that area. You know,
a vote for Trump. The Biden campaign is saying as
a votes against the things that make America America and
would weaken the foundation of American democracy. And now you're
seeing this a Trump camp push back and say, well,
(15:38):
you can't you can't call for unity and you can't
call for turning the temperature down when some of the
arguments that you've been making have betten the very things
which have raised the temperature. And obviously it's quite premature
to talk about what has happened here in the motive,
but certainly if there is if the if, if if
the well, it's very difficult for for Biden to continue
(16:01):
making the case for lowering the temperature when for most
of the year, the argument that that the campaign has
been making is that this is a sort of a millinerial.
This is a millinerial and apocalyptic election, and elections above
elections that they have been raising the temperature. And then
(16:21):
and then the difficulty for Biden is that, you know,
if the election really is that important, he can't or
and the people around him certainly can't look at him
and say, well, if the election really is, if there
really is about the existence of America, is he really
the right person to be fighting for the continued survival
(16:42):
of you know, America as we know it.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Probably not.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
He's clearly not the right person. And the fact that
the Democrats cannot put to bed their internal dissatisfaction with
him as their candidate, it is a huge challenge for them,
you know. Unfortunately, he did perform exceptionally poorly in that debate.
(17:06):
We all saw it from the moment he shuffled on
to the stage. The contrast between his lack of acuity
and deafness intellectually and the ability to frame up a case,
not only his own case, but to critique Trump's. And
what was I thought an incredibly friendly environment for Biden
right where you just had two moderators, you both had
(17:29):
two minutes each. I mean most of the time Biden
didn't even get to finish his two minutes, So you know,
he just looks so out of depth, And of course
that has been the dominating conversation American politics for the
last three weeks. Now, of course, eclipsed in a way
that frankly, will I can't imagine being eclipsed. With the
(17:50):
assassination attempt. They have got a huge problem because if
he stays on the ticket, the polls taken prior to
the assassination in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona,
the Big Seven, Trump was leading in all of them
and that would be a big electoral college victory for
(18:13):
Trump if that came through. And now, of course the
assumption is, and we'll see the polling in the next
forty eight hours, that those numbers would have only breaked
for broken for Trump. Trump even more, I mean, he'sn't.
The Democrats are in deep trouble this sitting here now,
I can't see how they can win. But more critically,
(18:35):
it's going to impact the down ballot, as they call it,
because in America, you don't just vote for the president.
You vote for the president, the vice president, senators, congressmen,
and then your own state legislature and on it goes.
It's like hundreds of boxes. You've got a tick and
it's all partisan Democrat versus a Republican for all of
these different roles. And the concern is that the turnout
(18:59):
for the Democrats will be suppressed because they feel they
can't win. Trump will ensure and has picked for j D.
Varts will assist this that his team, his people get
out to vote. So you can easily see a result
where the Dems lose the presidency quite badly, don't come
anywhere near regaining the House, and obviously the Senate stays
(19:22):
Republican and it's it's not a good space for them.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
And we're just going to take a quick break and
will be back shortly. Well, welcome back to On the Times.
We're talking to Todd Mallett, former National Leader, former MP
and longtime in American politics.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Tragic about the US election.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
So yeah, so we were just talking about Joe Biden's
chances and that bad. So I've got on my second
screen here the polling averages and you know swing states,
the battleground states, and yeah, I mean Trump is basically
winning in all of them. In Minnesota and Virginia, Biden
(20:13):
has a very narrow lead. But everywhere else races that
are potentially close Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,
and Nevada, I mean some of them it's not even close.
And uses as you say this, as you said just
before the break, this is this VP pick from Donald Trump.
Jd Vance, author of Hillbilly Elergy, senator from Ohio and
(20:35):
former Trump critic. I mean, it appears that he will
help to sure sure a lot of Trump support in
some of these states that really need to go into
the red column. At the same time, it seems like
the Democrats have possibly missed the moment to replace Joe Biden.
It's it's very hard to replace a leader in the
United States, very very hard, or a candidate, I should.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
Say, yeah, it's a I think that's the key thing
is it's so different to the Westminster system where and
our political system. If you'd had a National Labor or
New Zealand First or whoever leader that had got themselves
into the position that Biden has, then the caucus would
have moved and there'd be a different leader. But it
(21:20):
doesn't work like that. The states themselves have what are
called primary elections, which is what's been happening for the
first half of this year, starting memorably with the Iowa
caucuses in the first week of January, and at the
party members of each one of those states decide who
they want is their candidate, and those processes have been
(21:43):
well completed, and of course, on the Democratic side, all
those various state competitions chose, not surprisingly the incumbent Biden
to stand again. And how that works is that each
state has a set amount of delegates that goes to
in this case the Democrat convence to formally confirm that
Biden is their candidate. Now that does happen next month,
(22:05):
it's happening right now in Milwaukee. For the Republican side,
people might have seen Donald Trump get formally nominated yesterday
with all the delegates down on the floor. I've been
to both conferences in twenty sixteen to see how that works.
It's a great piece of American theater. All the delegates
(22:27):
from each of the states standing behind their state sign
they get called from the speaker and they yell out,
you know, the great state of California gives their X
amount of delegates to the next President of the United States,
Donald Day Trump.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
I love all the little corny details.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
I think people from Virginia or West Virginia will wearing
like coal mining helmets, some of the people from Hawaiian
wearing Hawaiian shirts. And you know, it's very much like
everyone brings their one like their state's one big thing,
and it's the big kind of moment to talk about,
how you know, the greatest state in the Union.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
It takes all day for fifty for fifty states to say, oh,
by the way, our delegates go to in this case,
Donald Trump. So this is happening next month, and of
course he's the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, until that time
in August where they have their conference the DNC and
(23:24):
the delegates stand up and or commit to Biden. So
one of the potential mechanisms Thomas is that Joe Biden says, look, actually,
upon reflection, I'm not really the right guy to lead
the party into the November election, and so I'm going
to step aside and in doing so free up the
(23:46):
delegates who were all committed to vote for me, to
vote for whoever they think is the best candidate. But
there's all sorts of challenges about that because you would
naturally think that Vice President Kamala Harris would be the
then obvious per and for all those delegates to support.
But there are real concerns of her electability, particularly against
(24:07):
you know, Trump post assassination attempt. Gavin Newsom is the
governor of California, very erudite and sort of central cast
and kind of figure of American politics. It's something that
I could never aspire to be, despite wishing to be
as a young boy. You know, perfect teeth, perfect hair,
(24:27):
perfect sun tan, the whole nine yards.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
He he is quite perfect.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Yeah, he takes all those boxes. But you know, how
do they run a process which is now I mean
you're only talking three weeks away. But of course all
of that is predicated on Biden deciding that he's not
fit to be the president. And there's still a lot
of talk even today the former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is
(24:55):
essentially refusing to be drawn on her one hundred percent
confidence and Biden for obvious reasons. We can all see that.
You know, frankly, if Biden stays in the race. Trump's
go to win this thing, I think, quite comfortably.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
It's interesting to see the language softening as well. I mean,
the big kind of what do they call them, surrogates, Yes,
immediately after the immediately after the debate, and the sort
of the big, the big, the big beast of democratic politics.
President Obama in particular, after the debate, you know, just
trying to calm everything down. And then after that, I mean,
(25:31):
Obama got kind of quiet.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, Obama's very quiet.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
True, So it's true.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
And as I mean, as you say, it's you know,
you know, in New Zealand politics, there are many ways
of getting rid of your leader. But then you know,
in American politics, the really the pressures on the presumptive
nominee themselves to go. That's the key kind of decision maker,
and the key point in this process is what the
actual person who has been who has those delegates pledged
(26:02):
to him, is what he decides to do. It's very little,
there's very little else, and then there are all these
other kind of all these other things that flow from that.
Like you say, well, you know, if he says I'm out,
then of course he can. He can pleach his delegates
to someone else. So he is a big saying who
the next person is? But what is the process for
choosing that person and how does that play out? You know,
(26:24):
and the difficulties the Democrats are having all. I mean,
even prior to the assassination and prior to the debate,
there were issues. And I think Michigan has a large
number of Muslim voters who have been pretty supportive of
the Democrats but are splitting with the Democrats over the
over the Biden's support for Israel in Gaza. And that's
that's a massive issue in quite an important state, you know.
(26:45):
So American politics are so strange bit to us. In
New Zealand, it takes a large number of voters to
flee to create a large impact, But in America, a
small number of voters fleeing someone can create a large impact.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
It's very like that, yes, well, particularly because of the
way their electoral college works, where you know, it isn't driven. Ultimately,
you don't win the presidency by winning the most votes
across the country. You win the presidency by winning the
most votes in enough states to get you to a
total of two hundred and seventy In each state's electoral value,
(27:22):
if you like, as a function of their population. So
Montana is three, in California as what forty nine or
fifty something, and it's the first to two seventy. But
this open convention was essentially what is one of the
scenarios that you're talking about there. Bizarrely, that was what
happened in America up until the nineteen sixties. You know,
(27:43):
it's really the arrival of television. Television showed live what
it was like these open conventions, which was pretty rough
and ready America certainly does rough and ready politics, where
basically they sometimes went on for days. They saw the power,
the two parties saw the power of actually perhaps managing
(28:04):
this a little bit better, and so they had primaries
for the first time. Really gained importance in the nineteen sixties.
And so ironically there are mechanisms there for the Democrats
in particular, only because their convention hasn't occurred yet. And
so if there is a window, but it's a narrow window,
(28:25):
it's a three week window, and Biden would have to
call it very very quickly, and then I suspect it
would go to an open convention where you'd have Kamala
Harris versus two or three others, and those delegates would decide. Now. Interestingly,
if they decided to do it, I think they would
gain a huge amount of focus and interest in the country.
(28:48):
Just like the assassination attempt and Trump walking through the
RNC last night with his bandaged dear, you know, there
would probably be two one hundred million Americans would have
seen that, and it would have reflected on it. Really,
the only option they've got, in my opinion, is to
(29:09):
do an open convention like it used to be seventy
eighty years ago and have a genuine competition and the
two thousand delegates decide. I think that's really the only
chance for them to regain momentum. And even then they
don't have. They can't be sure that that is going
to mean that Trump's lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada,
(29:32):
and Arizona, which is really only the seven swing states
that count. All the other states are either firmly Republican
or firmly Democrat. They're already sort of counted in the
race to two seventy. Trump leads in all of those.
Who can be sure that a new Democrat nominee could
eat Trump's lead across those states.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
You did see an interesting little league in the New
York Times, I think it was before the assassination, about
about the Biden campaign doing some head to hit polling
Kamela Harris versus Donald Trump. Don't actually know how that
polling worked out, if it's anything like Carmla Harris's other poles.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Yeah, it was very great, but it's interesting lead that
by doing it.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
I did say some of that. It was it was
better for Harris than it was for Biden, but Trumps
still dominant.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
You thought it as well, you know, I think LBJ
announced he was and this is the game before the
the current kind of primary process, so you could do this,
But he announced that he wouldn't be seeking as party's nomination,
putting said in the ring in sixty eight before the
convention and walking away and obviously finishing his term. If
(30:42):
Biden wouldn't do this the same though, and were slightly
different really and and to you tube on having sought
the nomination, it would become almost logical to use the
twenty fifth Amendment to sort of remove remove him currently.
And that's another thing I think potentially in the wor
and is that if he's saying, well, look I can't
(31:03):
I can't continue to do this job, and the people
around him are saying I can't continue.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
He can't continue to do this.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
Job, well, you know, as he capable of doing it
at the moment, and should and should and should that
be used. And I think the threat of that hanging
over him and being the first president to have that
used against them, that would that I think is playing
to his decision making because that would that would hurt
quite a lot.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
I imagine what I can't imagine it, to be honest.
I think that Amendment to the Constitution was essentially established
for you know, people who might have had a stroke
or just genuinely incapacitated and can't do the job. I
think it's initial genesis was when Woodrow Wilson had a
(31:50):
stroke in his second term and essentially it was bedridden,
and the concern was his wife was largely running the show,
which has echoes to be honest, because the same criticism
as made of Jill Biden, she seems to be the
one driving President Biden to stay stay in the race.
I think the more likely as him if it is
(32:12):
to happen is to him to say, look, actually, I've
reflected on it. I don't think I've got the capacity
to do this for four more years, and we need
to have a younger standard bearer to take the Democratic
Party through the next election and beyond. I think that
is still not that likely, but I think that is
(32:33):
far more likely than invoking the twenty second Amendment to
try and force them to step down as president immediately.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Well, Tom, we are out of time. Hey, thank you,
thank you so much for joining us and amatiles. I
think you've had a couple of appearances now regular.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Oh that's fantastic.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Your American Politics podcast is What's the Story or Glory?
You can find that online. You get your podcast where
you can also find this podcast on the tiles. It
was us for another week. We'll be baking ex speak
with more on the tiles. Even Steals our producer, so
thanks to him, and thanks to Todd for for coming on.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Have a good week.
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