Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks,
EDB and.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yes Yesterday, Our time, about now. Actually twenty four hours ago,
the Israeli Defense Force carried out multiple strikes on Iranian
military targets, killing four soldiers. Israel's army has said the
attacks are in retaliation to continuous attacks from Iran. The
President of the United States, Joe Biden, says someone optimistically,
(00:31):
I think that he's hopeful that this will mark the
end of a month's long cycle of escalation, but many
experts are concerned this is going to worsen the conflict.
And with me now is geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller Jeffrey Good.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Afternoon, Good afternoon, Tim.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Was this a valid response from Israel?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Well, Israel will see it that way. It was a
carefully calibrated response. It targeted mainly military sites in Iran,
around twenty different sites and three different locations, so it
was significant. But what it did not do was target
oil facilities or nuclear facilities. And there's been a lot
of talk and concern that Israel would seek to do
(01:14):
that would seek to undertake a large scale a strike,
just given what Israel's been doing particularly in Lebanon in
the last few months, we just had every reason to
think that with the large scale response from Israel, I
think there was a significant response, and in the wider context,
it was a very big response by Israel yesterday. But
(01:37):
I think Israel also to some degree stepped back from
the brink here and it didn't go for that for
those nuclear facilities, oil facilities because of UIs pressure behind
the scenes, and I think Ben and men who decided
to just step back a little bit and not go
too far.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
What was it specifically in retaliation too, in terms of
what Iran had been doing, because that's part a bunch
of missiles at Israel, aren't they.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
That's right. Looks hard for everyone to keep keep up
here because we've had so many exactly so many responses
and counter responses and rounds of escalation this year. It's
hard for anyone to keep up. But yesterday's strikes by
Israel were in direct response to an attack by Iran
on Israel on the first of October, in which Iran
(02:24):
sent around one hundred and eighty ballistic missiles towards Israel
and did some significant damage on Israeli military facilities. It
was more significant than actually was publicized immediately after those strikes,
and so that was what Israel was responding to yesterday.
And in the past month or so, the Israel Israel
(02:46):
has been given the use of a new defense air
defense system from the United States, a very advancedment called FAD.
And there's some suggestion, you know, no hard evidence, but
that that might have been part of the deal. The
US supplied a more high tech edense system there's only
six of them in the world to Israel, and in response,
(03:09):
Israel did not go for the jugular with yesterday with
Iran and undertook a more moderate response. And one might expected.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
What's the name of that their defense system again.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
It's it's called farn THHAA D is an acronym. Don't
don't ask me to spell out all the words. That
something begins with terminal and then high altitude.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
There are terminal high altitude defense.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Yeah, yeah, I think something like that.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Is that something that's like the iron dime two point
zero or is it something completely different?
Speaker 3 (03:38):
I think it's it's it's that on that spectrum. I
so there are only half a dozen of them in
the world. There was one station number of years ago
in South Korea that really angered China quite significantly. So
it's clearly got an awful lot of capability. It's got
a lot of high tech radar capability, and you know,
in some ways it's surprising that hasn't been stationed in
(03:59):
Israel already, but it just shows that the thread is
quite severe from Israel's perspective, and they've showed themselves up
with that new system. Perhaps in exchange, they didn't as
if they undertake a more widespread of attack yesterday.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Because Iran has its only a defense system. How much
of the of Israel's attack was actually repelled. Do we
know what sort of proportion of missiles got through?
Speaker 3 (04:21):
I think very little. I mean, Israel's technology is you know,
it is very very it's a very high standard, and
that's because it's largely developed in coordination with the United States,
and they have one of the most advanced militaries, if
not the most advanced military in the world. Iran simply
does not. So Israel did significant damage to air defense
(04:45):
facilities in Iran yesterday, going by the reports, and that
will be significant if Israel wants to undertake future attacks.
Iran's air defense systems have been knocked out effectively, and
yes they'll they'll rebuild them, no doubt, but that will
take time. And that's what's what's in it for Israel.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Well, I guess there are two ways of I mean
from a layman's point of view, there's two ways of
life looking at it. That they've softened up the air
defenses so they can have another crack at them. But
one might argue they've softened up the air defense system
so they can simply say no more from you, Otherwise
we're going to hit your harder and you won't be
able to defend yourself. What is.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
I think as both of those A true term certainly,
I mean that those attacks yesterday by Israel, they're destroyed
missile production, missile launch facilities, air defense facilities. You know,
this is significant in deterring future strikes by Iran. It's
not crippling in the sense because it didn't go for
(05:44):
you know, some of them, as I say, those other targets.
It won't lead to a full scale war. Iran has
played down the attacks, saying there's only limited damage, so
they're not looking to undertake another round of retaliation here
against Israel. And it's to everyone's benefit. And we've seen
an awful lot of escalation in the Middle East over
(06:04):
the past year, and I think it will do everyone
good to take a breath and step back for a moment.
And I think we need to go for diplomacy, dialogue
de escalation here, and that's something that many countries have
been working on over the past year. You know, it's
all started with Gaza, it's expanded to Lebanon, to Syria,
to Iran, to Iran. We all need to step back
(06:26):
here and what's been happening. We've just seen a wave
after wave of escalation and I think if anything we've
learned anything over the past year is the escalation simply
forgets more escalation. And sadly, I you know, we've got
to look at the wider context as well. With an
US election just around the corner, and you know, if
the polls are right, Donald Trump is in the box
(06:48):
seat to win those He is very anti Iran in
his views and very much against Iran's nuclear program. I
just wonder whether ben Aminetno's waiting and seeing look, Trump's
in the box seat to win this selection. Let's do
something bigger. On the other side of November, the.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Well so Biden City t hope a little mark the
end of a month's long cycle of escalation.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
What's your view, Well, look, I think you're a very
brave person to think this is ever the end. We've
just seen just wave and wave of escalation over the
past year. If you just think where this all began
on October the seventh, twenty twenty three, and where we
are now, you know, we've gone from being just about
Gaza to being about Lebanon has Bella. Who've seen just
(07:33):
escalation throughout the Middle East no matter where you look.
Israel says it's fighting a seventh front war because when
you count up all the enemies it's facing from the
Hooties in Yemen through to the West Bank, Syria, ir Araan, Lebanon, Gaza,
you end up with seven fronts. And that's the situation
we're in now. We're in a wider regional war. So yes,
(07:56):
things could have been worse yesterday, But you know, I
think they're bad enough as they are, and I think
we need to just keep steaking out in favor of
the de escalation routes. Apparently there are more ceasefire talks underway,
and Doha again with Gaza, and I think we just
need to go back to the political solutions because you
won't solve this conflict with the military response.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Do you think that Iran will respond.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
For now? I don't think they have plans to. From
the messaging that's coming out, they're saying limited damage, saying
that their Israeli response was weak. They had regular programming
on state TV. They're not hyping things out, sort of
brushing it off. Yeah, well, I think real damage was
done to the military facilities, but they're not looking to
make a big thing of it, which you would expect
(08:41):
if they were planning on undertaking yet another round of retaliation.
But remember this is the second tips attack, the escalation
we've seen this year. The direct confrontation between Israel and
Iran was one back in April, so it was only
six months ago. So I think the way we should
probably say this, you know, the current round is over,
but there will be sadly, almost certainly future rounds of
(09:02):
escalation unless we diffuse all of this through political solutions.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Well, I was going to I was gonna, well, I
am going to ask you. It feels like a rhetorical
question because I almost think that there's the answer is no.
But anyway, would return of the hostages make any difference?
Speaker 3 (09:18):
So?
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Or are we well beyond that now?
Speaker 3 (09:22):
I think it would make some difference. I mean a
return of the hostages as part of a cease fire deal.
I think a cees fire and Gaza would be fantastic.
I think cees fire and Lebanon would be fantastic. Israel
has met an awful lot of its objectives by now,
and you go back to April, Joe Biden told Vinamayahnah
to take the win after the round of escalation then
(09:44):
with Iran, and I think perhaps those words take the
wind should be the message to Israel right now, just
given what's happened. They've killed Yahya Sinhwa, the head of
Hamas and Gaza. They've killed Ismail Hanair, the political leader
from US. They've killed Tassanas brother, the leader of his
the Llah. They've caused an awful lot of damage in
Lebanon and Gaza. Forty two thousand people in Gaza have
(10:07):
been killed, two and a half thousand and Elebanon. At
some point, I think you need to quote unquote take
the win and just stop and go for a political solution.
Go for cease fires, go for diplomacy. I think that
should be the message for Benamantno, who right now, I'm
not sure if he's willing to hear it. I think
he's looking ahead and he's seeing Donald Trump is in
the block seat to be in the White House, and
(10:28):
an awful lot more could play out under a Trump presidency,
that's for sure.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
All right. So do you think that if Trump didn't
doesn't make the White House that there is more of
a prospect of success in a securing peace.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Well, yes, and Noah, because Joe Biden certainly hasn't been
very successful over the past year overall, and in convincing
Ben Mietno to set a step back, I don't think
there's any guarantee at all that Kamala Harris would be
more successful with Ben at all. So, yeah, the situation
is pretty bleak. But yet I think we always have
(11:04):
to be We have to be even as when it
seems so bligue. We have to be hopeful, we have
to be optimistic. We have to keep trying for peace
and keep trying that diplomatic route. And I do think
New z Eden can play. It's just a small part,
but a significant part in that global picture, and I
think Winston Peters would do well to head to the
Middle East at some point. He's only had a very
brief stop in the Middle East over the past year.
(11:26):
I think New z Eden could play a small part
in those overall piece efforts by working together with friends
and partners in the Middle East and outside the region, get.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Winston to go, they give him a good telling off.
Just one last cynical question, letting Yahoo up. And before
all this happened, was facing corruption charges? Is there? And
cynically speaking, if I was just having a cup of
coffee with someone, I'd say, well, he's not going to
resolve it because as soon as everything's over, he's in trouble.
So it's it's almost an his vested interest to continue
with this stuff, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
It absolutely is. Indeed, the day the war ends, Beniminnea,
who's career ends effectively and he goes back to fighting
all these corruption charges, I think from anything's perspective, he's
probably that he's redeemed himself. There was that huge security
failure over October the seventh that allowed that massive attack
by hamas On on Israel, but since then, particularly the
(12:15):
various assassinations of the leadership of Hamas and his Billah,
the destruction of so many his BLA facilities in Lebanon
and de Route and his BELA infrastructure and south southern Lebanon,
the destruction of Hamas and Gaza. You know, he probably
feels he's redeemed himself, but yet he is only going
to face an awful lot of trouble if he resigns
(12:38):
or is sacked as PM. So he's got every reason
to continue for as long as as humanly possible. I mean,
I think he's seventy five now, so he probably feels
that he's still got a lot, a lot, a lot
to play for.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Taken him out in the box. Hey, Jeffrey, I really
appreciate your time this afternoon. Thanks so much for your insight.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
He very welcome to him.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Yeah, we got thanks that as Jeffrey mill here is
a geopolitical analyst, and yeah, actually that's fascinating and fascinating
insights into the whole thing.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
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