January 18, 2025 • 8 mins
The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll has the Labour Party up 4.0 points at 30.9%, while National sinks 4.6 points to 29.6%.
Although dropping 2.2 points, ACT is still ahead of the Greens, at 10.8% and 9.5% respectively.
Perhaps the most concerning for the National Party, 39% said the country was moving in the right direction, while 53% said it was moving in the wrong direction.
Regardless, Christopher Luxon still leads significantly as preferred prime minister.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from news Talk.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Said be so.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
In a result, not many people expected things are actually
looking up for the Labor Party. The latest Taxpayers Union
Curier poll has Labor up four points at thirty point
nine percent, while National sinks four point six points to
twenty nine point six percent. Although dropping two point two points,
Act is still ahead of the Greens at ten point
(00:32):
eight percent and nine point five percent respectively. Perhaps the
most concerning for the National Party, thirty nine percent said
the country was moving in the right direction, while fifty
three percent said it was moving in the wrong direction. Regardless,
Christopher Luxon still leads significantly as preferred prime minister. So
what is going on? It's a good question, isn't it.
(00:55):
James Ross from the Taxpayers Union joins us. Now, good afternoon,
Jane's welcome along.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Gooday, thanks having me on.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, you're welcome. The biggest question in our minds is
what has happened? Why does this poll show quite the turnaround?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (01:09):
Look, I mean the first thing you see when you
look at this pole compared to last months is that
there are some pretty dramatic changes. You know, it's a
seventeen point drop and the people who believe that the
country is heading in the wrong direction. And frankly, I
think the answer to that is it's the economy. December
was a hard month for the government. There was a
(01:30):
lot of news coming out of that. One how dire
the state of the government's books are. And two you
know that we're now facing down the worst economic downturn
in about thirty years. So that's starting to filter through,
particularly over Christmas time. Struggling families really notice when things
get worse. You know, if it's if there's an economic
(01:50):
downtown at the Christmas time, you're going to notice that
a lot more than any other time of year. And
I think that's what we're seeing flowing through.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah. I think for most of us when we think
about the last few months and the stuff that hasn't
happened or has happened politically, the one big thing that
floats around is the true eighty Principles Bill. Right, We've
had poles since the hecy that took place, and that
showed minimal movement and support. So is it the Trading
Principles Bill more than anything above the cost of living
(02:16):
that you've talked about.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
No, I think from the data shows for any of that,
the largest issues that people are most concerned about our economy,
cost of living, and health. And most of the time,
you know, aside from what's going on in the news,
most of the time that's pretty constant. It's largely cost
of living, economy, and health, all of which over the
last couple of months have had some pretty negative news
(02:41):
for the government, particularly the economy over the last month.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
And that's what we've seen this big shift.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Okay, yeah, I think it's it's probably indicative to it
doesn't really matter who's running the country that if people
aren't feeling good about it, they tend to reflect poorly
when it comes to these poles. What did the National
Party need to do to increase their support.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Again, Well, I think what they need to do is
prioritize economic growth. It's I think what was the flow
through is that people are you know, they might not
necessarily know that the National Party are spending more than
the last government, and they might not know that death
is higher than it wasn't of the last government, but
they can see that the effects are the same in
terms of the sort of continued managed economic decline. What
(03:21):
they need to do is prioritize growth, and I think
in large part that's that's you know, cussing unnecessary expending
and tax reform to allow for that growth.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
How many people do you actually think think about beyond
their own bank balance in their own back pocket when
it comes to these polls. Do they actually think about
how the country is doing? Or is it more about
how I'm doing well?
Speaker 4 (03:42):
By the end of the day, most people don't care
about politics in the same way that you know, you
and I might. They're not political nerds sat here by
a part of you.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
They are.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
What they care about is how their family is doing.
You know, how their family are doing, and how their
friends are doing, and how their communities are doing. And
that's the economy. You know, that's the economy flowing through
into people's everyday lives. And I, you know, I think
that's the position that people are always going to have,
is that that's what's going to change their vote for
most is how they think their life is going, and
(04:12):
that's the economy.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Yeah, this pole seems to me to be When I
looked at the pole and the results, so I saw
a traditional focus on the big major parties, the coalition.
It may be whatever it is, and people may love
it or not. But the number that National lost is
almost identical to the number that labor has gained. Are
there really still that many swing voters?
Speaker 4 (04:33):
Yeah, I think it's I mean, you know, there's always
going to be a sizeable proportion of swing voters. You know,
Labor went not four points National came down four points six,
So pretty big swings. But you know, when you can
texture loads of that on the side of the country,
that's a perfectly believable amount of people to be swinging
based on what they've seen over the last month, which
(04:54):
is that their lives have got significantly harder, and the
news is that they're going to keep getting harder.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
James, if I as being really cynical, I'd say that
increase and for labor and the loss to Nation. So
within that margin of era, how much does the margin
of era have to play statistically in a result like this.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
So, I mean, the results are they're outside of the
margin of era, but obviously, you know you've got to
treat each pole as part of a broader trend. But
I think where the real fundamentals are and where I
would be looking is in that right wrong track result
you know, the net in December was that three percent
thought that the country was sitting in the right direction.
(05:33):
Now that's minus fourteen percent, So that's a huge sweat.
Well outside of the margin of era, people are changing
their opinions at quite a pass.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, and when you look at the cohort of people,
we're not just talking about three people outside Cuba more,
we're talking about a thousand people being surveyed here. You'd
have to question this though. Labor must be just laughing
all the way to the to Balamies. I mean, what
have they actually done in order to gain the support
from traditional national supporters?
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Yeah, I think that's that's a really interesting question. What
I would notice that Labor of actually have been very
very quiet over the last month as national you know,
it's been the summer bread people haven't been particularly interested
in politics, but that news about the economy hasn't gone away.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
You know, you take all the spinner side and that's
what people are looking at.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I do wonder to winning over votes.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Yeah, see, I wonder just how shallow people are the
fact that Labour has actually done nothing and still garner
a lot of support. What does that say to you?
Just shut your mouth and do nothing and eventually your
ratings will increase.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Well, people want to see solutions, but they're not getting
them from either side at the minute. So I think
it's natural that you will get a greater proportion of
these voters swinging between the major parties. Okay, but as
they said, what they want to see is actual economic solutions,
and if either of the parties can offer those, I
think there's a huge opportunity for them to get yeah,
boost in the balls.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
Yeh see. Now that's what I wonder. I wonder if
people are looking at the results of what the coalition
government are currently doing and they see a lot of
spinning wheels. There's a lot of spinning wheels and smoke
and the greatest of intentions to do some really good stuff,
But is it actually gaining any traction yet? Do you
think that's the problem. We don't. We're not prepared as
a society to wait around and give people a good chance.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
It's it's a sair question.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
What I would say is that in a lot of
ways we are still heading in the wrong direction, particularly
on when it comes to government spending, when it comes
to government debt levels, when it comes to tax levels,
all of those are still going up, and that's why
we're seeing the economy shrinking.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
All right, So, anything else, James, from this latest taxpayer
union Curer part, anything else of significance that you'd like
to comment on, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Think, I mean you've touched on this in the intro.
But I think what's really interesting is that even though
Flabor of National here, Luxon is still pretty clear when
it comes to preferred prime minister. And I think that's
that's where we really get this insight that people are
just losing faith in National over the economics. Is that
fundamentally they're still leaning towards National, but they're just not
(08:05):
being given a reason to support them devote them, and
that's where they need to deliver on the economics.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So, although you've seen this uptick for Labor in terms
of preferred prime Minister, which we still team. We said
it's an important thing, right having the right person at
the helm, you see that Christopher Luxon is still leading
that pack, isn't he?
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Yeah, exactly, And it's a pretty big gap. I don't
think it's just shown ten percent, and that that does
affect how people vote on the day. At the end
of the day, You know, people like leaders they like,
but crucially they like leaders who deliver, and liking a
PM isn't enough. And that's why we're see to drop
on the sort of overall spot for the nationalists, even
if they prefer Luxeant as a leader. We need to
(08:45):
start seeing that.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Prioritization of economics.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
All right, Hey, thank you so much for your time, James,
is really nice to catch up with you. James Ross
from the text Payers Union.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news Talks.
It'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from news Talk.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Said be so.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
In a result, not many people expected things are actually
looking up for the Labor Party. The latest Taxpayers Union
Curier poll has Labor up four points at thirty point
nine percent, while National sinks four point six points to
twenty nine point six percent. Although dropping two point two points,
Act is still ahead of the Greens at ten point
(00:32):
eight percent and nine point five percent respectively. Perhaps the
most concerning for the National Party, thirty nine percent said
the country was moving in the right direction, while fifty
three percent said it was moving in the wrong direction. Regardless,
Christopher Luxon still leads significantly as preferred prime minister. So
what is going on? It's a good question, isn't it.
(00:55):
James Ross from the Taxpayers Union joins us. Now, good afternoon,
Jane's welcome along.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Gooday, thanks having me on.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, you're welcome. The biggest question in our minds is
what has happened? Why does this poll show quite the turnaround?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (01:09):
Look, I mean the first thing you see when you
look at this pole compared to last months is that
there are some pretty dramatic changes. You know, it's a
seventeen point drop and the people who believe that the
country is heading in the wrong direction. And frankly, I
think the answer to that is it's the economy. December
was a hard month for the government. There was a
(01:30):
lot of news coming out of that. One how dire
the state of the government's books are. And two you
know that we're now facing down the worst economic downturn
in about thirty years. So that's starting to filter through,
particularly over Christmas time. Struggling families really notice when things
get worse. You know, if it's if there's an economic
(01:50):
downtown at the Christmas time, you're going to notice that
a lot more than any other time of year. And
I think that's what we're seeing flowing through.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah. I think for most of us when we think
about the last few months and the stuff that hasn't
happened or has happened politically, the one big thing that
floats around is the true eighty Principles Bill. Right, We've
had poles since the hecy that took place, and that
showed minimal movement and support. So is it the Trading
Principles Bill more than anything above the cost of living
(02:16):
that you've talked about.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
No, I think from the data shows for any of that,
the largest issues that people are most concerned about our economy,
cost of living, and health. And most of the time,
you know, aside from what's going on in the news,
most of the time that's pretty constant. It's largely cost
of living, economy, and health, all of which over the
last couple of months have had some pretty negative news
(02:41):
for the government, particularly the economy over the last month.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
And that's what we've seen this big shift.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Okay, yeah, I think it's it's probably indicative to it
doesn't really matter who's running the country that if people
aren't feeling good about it, they tend to reflect poorly
when it comes to these poles. What did the National
Party need to do to increase their support.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Again, Well, I think what they need to do is
prioritize economic growth. It's I think what was the flow
through is that people are you know, they might not
necessarily know that the National Party are spending more than
the last government, and they might not know that death
is higher than it wasn't of the last government, but
they can see that the effects are the same in
terms of the sort of continued managed economic decline. What
(03:21):
they need to do is prioritize growth, and I think
in large part that's that's you know, cussing unnecessary expending
and tax reform to allow for that growth.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
How many people do you actually think think about beyond
their own bank balance in their own back pocket when
it comes to these polls. Do they actually think about
how the country is doing? Or is it more about
how I'm doing well?
Speaker 4 (03:42):
By the end of the day, most people don't care
about politics in the same way that you know, you
and I might. They're not political nerds sat here by
a part of you.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
They are.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
What they care about is how their family is doing.
You know, how their family are doing, and how their
friends are doing, and how their communities are doing. And
that's the economy. You know, that's the economy flowing through
into people's everyday lives. And I, you know, I think
that's the position that people are always going to have,
is that that's what's going to change their vote for
most is how they think their life is going, and
(04:12):
that's the economy.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Yeah, this pole seems to me to be When I
looked at the pole and the results, so I saw
a traditional focus on the big major parties, the coalition.
It may be whatever it is, and people may love
it or not. But the number that National lost is
almost identical to the number that labor has gained. Are
there really still that many swing voters?
Speaker 4 (04:33):
Yeah, I think it's I mean, you know, there's always
going to be a sizeable proportion of swing voters. You know,
Labor went not four points National came down four points six,
So pretty big swings. But you know, when you can
texture loads of that on the side of the country,
that's a perfectly believable amount of people to be swinging
based on what they've seen over the last month, which
(04:54):
is that their lives have got significantly harder, and the
news is that they're going to keep getting harder.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
James, if I as being really cynical, I'd say that
increase and for labor and the loss to Nation. So
within that margin of era, how much does the margin
of era have to play statistically in a result like this.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
So, I mean, the results are they're outside of the
margin of era, but obviously, you know you've got to
treat each pole as part of a broader trend. But
I think where the real fundamentals are and where I
would be looking is in that right wrong track result
you know, the net in December was that three percent
thought that the country was sitting in the right direction.
(05:33):
Now that's minus fourteen percent, So that's a huge sweat.
Well outside of the margin of era, people are changing
their opinions at quite a pass.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, and when you look at the cohort of people,
we're not just talking about three people outside Cuba more,
we're talking about a thousand people being surveyed here. You'd
have to question this though. Labor must be just laughing
all the way to the to Balamies. I mean, what
have they actually done in order to gain the support
from traditional national supporters?
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Yeah, I think that's that's a really interesting question. What
I would notice that Labor of actually have been very
very quiet over the last month as national you know,
it's been the summer bread people haven't been particularly interested
in politics, but that news about the economy hasn't gone away.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
You know, you take all the spinner side and that's
what people are looking at.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I do wonder to winning over votes.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Yeah, see, I wonder just how shallow people are the
fact that Labour has actually done nothing and still garner
a lot of support. What does that say to you?
Just shut your mouth and do nothing and eventually your
ratings will increase.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Well, people want to see solutions, but they're not getting
them from either side at the minute. So I think
it's natural that you will get a greater proportion of
these voters swinging between the major parties. Okay, but as
they said, what they want to see is actual economic solutions,
and if either of the parties can offer those, I
think there's a huge opportunity for them to get yeah,
boost in the balls.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
Yeh see. Now that's what I wonder. I wonder if
people are looking at the results of what the coalition
government are currently doing and they see a lot of
spinning wheels. There's a lot of spinning wheels and smoke
and the greatest of intentions to do some really good stuff,
But is it actually gaining any traction yet? Do you
think that's the problem. We don't. We're not prepared as
a society to wait around and give people a good chance.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
It's it's a sair question.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
What I would say is that in a lot of
ways we are still heading in the wrong direction, particularly
on when it comes to government spending, when it comes
to government debt levels, when it comes to tax levels,
all of those are still going up, and that's why
we're seeing the economy shrinking.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
All right, So, anything else, James, from this latest taxpayer
union Curer part, anything else of significance that you'd like
to comment on, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Think, I mean you've touched on this in the intro.
But I think what's really interesting is that even though
Flabor of National here, Luxon is still pretty clear when
it comes to preferred prime minister. And I think that's
that's where we really get this insight that people are
just losing faith in National over the economics. Is that
fundamentally they're still leaning towards National, but they're just not
(08:05):
being given a reason to support them devote them, and
that's where they need to deliver on the economics.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So, although you've seen this uptick for Labor in terms
of preferred prime Minister, which we still team. We said
it's an important thing, right having the right person at
the helm, you see that Christopher Luxon is still leading
that pack, isn't he?
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Yeah, exactly, And it's a pretty big gap. I don't
think it's just shown ten percent, and that that does
affect how people vote on the day. At the end
of the day, You know, people like leaders they like,
but crucially they like leaders who deliver, and liking a
PM isn't enough. And that's why we're see to drop
on the sort of overall spot for the nationalists, even
if they prefer Luxeant as a leader. We need to
(08:45):
start seeing that.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Prioritization of economics.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
All right, Hey, thank you so much for your time, James,
is really nice to catch up with you. James Ross
from the text Payers Union.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news Talks.
It'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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