August 8, 2025 • 41 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Farmer Tom Martin, Cameron Bagrie, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, Emma Higgins, and Jane Smith.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the Country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Okay and good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. Welcome
to the Best of the Country, brought to you each
and every Saturday morning here on Newstalk sa'd be by Rabobank.
We're growing a better New Zealand together. Going to kick
off today's show with farmer Tom Martin our UK or
British farming correspondent, big social media influencer over there. Believe
it or not, he is suing along with his father,
(00:50):
the British government over the very controversial inheritance tax. Cameron Bagri.
Independent Economists caught up with them midweek talking about taraff
a drop in the ocr the unemployment rate in the
threat of stagflation. Doctor Jacqueline Roweth one of New Zealand's
leading primary sector academics. After a lifetime and education, I
(01:13):
ask her if today's students are snowflakes who can't handle
exam pressure and subsequent life pressures. Emma Higgins and Jane
Smith to wrap the show. It's the Best of the
Country brought to you by Rabobank, the.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank with
a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Here's our farming correspondent in the UK, Farmer Tom Martin's
social media influencer, and now he can add to his
list of achievements sewer of the government. Yes, he's suing
the government over the very very unpopular inheritance tax in
the UK for farmers and farmer Tom, you've got big
time support on this or support on high places, President Trump.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Well, that's true. I mean I don't want to pick
you up in your terminology there, Jenny, but I wouldn't
describe myself as the sewer of the government. The sewer
of the government, of course, is down in down in Westminster.
But yeah, it's great, I mean great to hear Trump
just speaking so candidly. And you know, he's an interesting character,
isn't He is neiled the don but certainly speaking pretty
(02:26):
passionately about his farmers and the way that he is
he thinks he's protecting them. I mean, he did say
that we there's not an estate tax at all in
the US. There actually is, But I think the I
think the threshold is fifteen million or thirty millions for
a couple, so that's you know that that's a significant difference.
And it was fascinating watching Starmer squirm and then try
(02:48):
to try to kind of pipe in with oh, you know,
we're only doing a little one and you know it's
only it's only a couple of percent, and really really
feeling awkward. And wasn't it fascinating to see you know,
Trump holding court. I mean he's in he's in our countries,
in Scotland, and yet he was hosting as if he
would in the Oval Office in his own hotel, and
(03:08):
ursula underlining of the European Union, and Kit Stamer and
then the First Minister of Scotland all were ushered in
as if they were as if they were guests, as
if they were visitors, and yet you know, here we
are in Europe, in the UK, in Scotland.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
As bank roll in your legal case against the government,
Tom or have you just got deep pockets?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
There?
Speaker 4 (03:30):
There's a crowd I think we call it crowd justice.
There is a crowd justice campaign if you if you
wish to contribute, Jane, It's going to be pretty expensive,
but it's absolutely vital and we're basically taking the government
to judicial review and that's where we're challenging the process
that they followed in order to get to the to
to create the legislation to change the inheritance tax released
(03:53):
that were in place for the last for the last
forty years. We were effectively saying they didn't consult properly
and they didn't consult, which is which is absolutely true,
and the whole industry is in agreement about that. Frankly,
I think DEFRA is our Department for the Environment, Food
and Rural Affair are probably in agreement with that as well.
But this is this is a Treasury policy pushed by
(04:16):
the Treasury, stamped by the Chancellor and it could be,
amongst many things, the undoing this government.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Farmer Tom Martin, a UK farming correspondent on the Country
on Monday Show, part one of a two part interview.
Up next do we continue the interview discuss the TB
outbreak on Jeremy Clarkson's Didley Squat farm and did Wimbledon
cause the end of the UK drought? Cameron Begriy, Dr
Jackwell and Rowa. Emma Higgins from Rabobank on a ten
(04:50):
dollar Holy Grail Trifector for farming and Jane Smith all
on the Best of the Country brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
The Best of the Country with Rubber Beg the bank
with local agri banking experts passionate about the future of
rural communities rubber Bek.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Jeremy Clarkson Clarkson's farm, Didley Squat has gone down with TB,
and you're saying that this essentially could be a good thing.
The amount of exposure the TB and things like your
bedger Cull are going to get out of this will
be huge and Jeremy Clarkson is in a position to
sway public opinion.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Yeah. Absolutely. I mean it's never good to see. And
I've got lots of friends whose farms have gone down
with TV and it's always a tremendously pressured, emotional, difficult time.
You know, they are bloodlines that have been in many
cases established for generations and beloved cows you know named
who you know, they see them every day, they know
(05:51):
their character and personality. Who are cold because of a
possible or an inconclusive test that they might have you know,
they might have TV. But it's always a hard time
and I feel for Clarkson, but what he's great at
is showing his emotions, showing that he loves farming, and
(06:11):
he absolutely does, There's no doubt about it. I would
back him absolute to the hill. He is a farmer
through and through, he's one of us, and it will
be for the cause of dealing with TV. It'll be
a great thing because now not only is everyone across
the UK, but people around the world are aware of this.
I don't know. Maybe just does Trump watch Clarkson's farm,
(06:33):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Maybe well, I think he watches quite a bit a
reality TV while he's drinking his star At Cokes and
eating McDonald's hamburgers. Talking about the McDonald's hamburger, says, I
said earlier, we've got a fifteen percent tariff. You guys
have only got a ten percent terrorf So obviously Saki
has done something that's right.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Well, we're you know, I wonder equally if we're being played.
I mean, his his big target is the is the EU.
And yeah, so whether whether we're we're just being given
a slightly slightly better tariff as part of a bargaining
chip there, or whether it's just completely random US I
(07:15):
don't know for for for for UK farming, I'm not
quite sure what what significant effect it will have. A
lot of our big brands do export into the US,
but it's not a really it's not really a mass
market for US.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
It's not.
Speaker 4 (07:32):
It's not a huge, huge, significant market. It's very difficult
for for targeted industries. For That's why John Swinney, the
first Minuts just Scotland, was in with him with Trump,
because of course it's very difficult for salmon, very different
for Scott's whiskey, causing challenges in some areas. So shortbread, brisket,
biscuits and things like that are are tea is something
(07:53):
that we export into the kind of more luxury end
of the of the U S market. But I would
say for the for the for the broad UK agricultural market,
the US isn't isn't a huge destination for us.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
The drought it has ended. I told you Wimbledon would
sort it out.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
You promised, and you delivered. As ever, Javi, you're the
oracle and I really appreciate that. Yeah, across much of
the UK we have now had rain. We've now had
a lot of rain in some cases, but it was
a drought that was deep enough and long enough that
a lot of people have had their harvest severely affected.
That said, up in the north of England, up in Scotland,
(08:34):
there's been some fantastic silage, the wonderful hay made up there,
and yet two or three hundred miles away people are
making half the silage, half the hay, maybe even less
than that, and they typically be making And we're seeing
big differences across the UK in terms of soil types.
So the lighter soils the crops have been dying off
in the drought, the heavier soils that we often cursed
(08:56):
as we you know, sometimes do on our far but
our heavier soils of held out. And we are two
thirds of the way through a pretty average harvest, which
frankly i'd just snapped your hand off, or if you'd
offered me a month ago.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
I see. The call has come for UK farmers to
take climate change seriously, because the Met Office is issued
a stark warning that the UK is now experiencing a
notably different climate than it did just a few decades ago,
a shift or riving already having a visible impact on farming.
Tom I don't know how long you've been on the
(09:29):
family farm for but are you seeing that notable shift?
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Absolutely, and there are people all over are who are
who are skeptical, but there is no doubt that our
weather systems are changing and that means more extreme weather.
It doesn't necessarily and we're certainly getting hot to some
of them. We're we're seeing that significantly. But you know,
we get a cold patch in the winter and everyone
says our global warming is a load of nonsense, but
(09:55):
we're getting more extreme weather. So we are getting some
colder weather, we're getting some weather weather, we're getting long
periods of dry time. And the UK climate we're like
you guys, We're a maritime climate. We are used to
and we're built on relatively mild weather, relatively frequent rain,
and we've seen that's caused huge, huge issues for our wildlife,
(10:18):
for food production in the last few months with the drought.
But we you know, we had a tremendously wet sewing
time back in September and as I look at some
of my yield maps from the combine, we've been less
affective by the drought. They're more affected by the wet
in the winter. So you know, we're getting extreams of
wet and dry, hot and cold, more than we would
(10:39):
have previously in the one year. So we were absolutely
at the you know, the cold face when it comes
to comes to climate change, in climate variability.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
All right, Tom, I'll let you go to bed.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Thanks for your time, Thank ebuddy, the best of the
country with Rubbobank. Choose the bank with one hundred and
twenty years global egry business experience grow with Rubber Bank.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Cameron Bagriy is an independent economist. Lots to talk about
at the moment. We've got tariffs announced last Friday, ocr
to be announced, the next cut hopefully on August the twentieth,
and tomorrow unemployment figures are due to come out. Cameron,
let's start with tariffs. How badly is this going to
affect the New Zealand economy going from ten to fifteen percent?
Speaker 5 (11:24):
No, it's a marginal tweak. I guess you can look
at it through two lenses. In the hat probably three
lessons means, just look number one, while we went from
ten to fifteen, there's a little bit beyond me. Secondly,
if you look at ten or fifteen, it's a hell
of a lot lower. And what we're seeing across the
whole lot of other countries, so we can probably take
a little bit of deep press. So I think, well,
(11:46):
wasn't that bad is what we've seen in the rocks
of Brazil. But yeah, fifteen percent is still fifteen percent,
and that makes you less competitive, although in a relative sense,
our beef bang into the United States is going to
be a hell of a lot more competitive and lots
of the Brazilian.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Product, yeah, but not as competitive as the Ulsie beef.
Speaker 5 (12:05):
And that's the one that I guess surprises us. Why
Australia got ten and we got fifteen. Maybe its because
Australia is going to buy a whole lot more stuff
off the United States military equipment, etc. Etc. You know,
they've just got a bigger cheap book.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Well, they run a trade deficit with the US, whereas
we don't. We're almost even stevens. But you would think
trumps splitting here is a wee bit on that one.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
Yeah, well that's what the science behind this makes no sense.
In fact, the economics behind while we're going around shutting
tariff on various countries around the globe, is pretty marginal.
But what we know is that we now live in
an environment, or a system where what's called power is
now challenging rules and a power based system faces the
(12:53):
big boys, the big countries, and America's big and we're not.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Now Tom mcclay's going to on a plane fly over
to Washington. Do is damn just and good on him
to try and get us a better deal. He's peeing
into the northwestern right.
Speaker 5 (13:08):
I'd say say, yeah, yeah, I'll pay my head off
to Todd. He has been doing a remarkably good job,
along with a whole lot of the other minister's putting
New Zeon back on the map in regard to international
creit and there with grime. Hope there's going to be
some sort of deal between New zeal And India Twenda
before the end of the year. Better had tip to
hard work and hopefully we're going to see a bit
(13:28):
of payoff. But Americans, now, I think this thing's written
in stone.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Don't want to pit my economic mind against yours, Cameron
Baggery Better do want your opinion on this one. See,
I think the best thing we could do in this
country has dropped the official cash rate, and drop it quickly.
I know we're going to get one. On August the twentieth.
But you've got guys like John Key running around saying
we need to cut one hundred basis points. What say you, Oh.
Speaker 5 (13:54):
Look, I think the Reserve Bank's got another one, maybe
two up their sleeve. Bounced out of a recession the end
of twenty and twenty four, we're a decent quarter the
start of two thousand and twenty five. Look, so we've
done David Long and now stopped for a cup of tea.
You know, the rural sector's need doing a lot of
the heavy lifting over this last sort of sixty nine
(14:15):
months to get the economy back on the feet. You'd
sort of expect that the impact of lower interest rates
by the housing market the construction sector would start to
flow and we get that sort of second round, you
fat more propulsion. We're not seeing that at the moment.
Why because the fundamental is towards housing. The construction set
look good at the moment in regard to population growth,
(14:36):
that's demand relative to what's there in the market. We've
still got these structural problems. I had to the government
for the announcement they came out in regard to dropping
NCA getting stuck into the education sector. We need to
fix the roads. Those sort of things are just inhibited.
They're like a rugby player that's carrying an injury, and
you're carrying an injury, you're not going to get top performance.
And the Zealand be kind of at the moment unfortunately
(14:58):
it's carrying a whole lot of structural injury, and the
rezum bend can't fixie Dlopping interest rates is a sugar rust,
and you've got to be careful about how much sugar
that you pump into the economic system because it can
put you up on a bit of an artificial hire.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
So three point twenty five percent at the moment, you're
suggesting two point seventy five at best.
Speaker 5 (15:19):
Well at best subject to what's going on around the glibe.
Now the Chinese economy, for example, that the IMF just
upgraded the restimates for where they thought the Chinese economy
is going to be over twenty twenty five because they've
accepted expectations. So yeah, that's a piece of good news.
But if we see China or the United States you
(15:40):
kindly start to slow rapidly and the global economy starts
to go off rails, then you've probably got the recipe
for the carestraight game to two percent, and that's a scenario,
that's a possibility, it's not the central scenario that people
are painting at the moment. So we need to be
careful what we wish for.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
Now, Let's just.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Finish with the unemployment figures I think due out tomorrow
they experts or the pun and so a picking five
point three percent, which on the face of it doesn't
appear incredibly high to some of the other unemployment rates
we've had that have been close to double digit. But
are we in danger of the stagflation? That is a
word that's being thrown around at the moment.
Speaker 5 (16:17):
Yeah, and it's an arsty word that we don't like
to see. But if you look at the Reserve Bank's
latest estimate for second quarter GDP and it's the gym quarter,
it's a negative number. I'm not reading too much into
possibly ever one negative number at the moment, but there's
a lot of uncertainty up there, whether you look at
(16:37):
globally with create tensions or where you look at potential politically.
What we're seeing here in New Zealand that the housing
market is not taking over that economic battern. We've got
those structural issues, yes, so the growth side of the
leader is still pretty tepid. At the same time, we've
got rising headline in flce. What's good for the farmers
is not necessarily good for people at the supermarkets. And
we're having a good old fashioned debate over the price
(16:59):
of butter. The prizes me because you know, cound of
butter is less than a point of beer. Ah, so
you need sometimes you need to put it in a
routive sense in regard to what's going on. But electricity bills,
local authorities rates, they're all on the up. So the
summer speaks of this inflation. We dynamic that's got a
(17:19):
little bit of stickiness and inflations of thief that steers
money out of people's pockets. And people don't like that thief.
So we want to get rid of inflation. Unfortunately, how
to get rid of inflation, you need to have weak
growth because when you've got strong growth or an economy
that's ripping alarm, people can start to put up prices.
It's very difficult to put up prices if you're retailer
for your construction firm when you've got no demand. On
(17:39):
the other side, well.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
I absolutely agree with you. We're barking up the wrong
tree with butter insurance rates, energy costs. Those are the
things we really need to concentrate on, Cameron Bagriy two
great economic minds, Well not quite, but I did appreciate
your input.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Well the best, an't it the best of the country
with Rubber Bank.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agri business experience.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Grow with rubberback Fortnightly. She writes an excellent column for
US doctor Jaquelin Rowith. They're going to come back to
that one because this week's offering is a beauty. But Jacqueline,
you've spent a lifetime in education. What did you make
of yesterday's big announcement from the government abolishing NCA Because
(18:22):
I think, and I'm sounding like a grumpy old boomer here, Jacqueline,
that you know, younger people are snowflakes. Exam pressure is
just part of life. You are the past or you
fail when you leave school.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
Yeah, hurdles are part of life. And remember I have
no children, So what I'm talking about is experience from
the classroom. And coming back from University of Melbourne in
two thousand and seven, it was quite a shock to
me not having talked first here for seven years to
see what the children will like as a product from NCEEA,
(18:57):
and this was fairly at the beginning. Nevertheless, it was
a fairly disappointing experience. It was lacking in pushback and
questioning and all the sorts of things that one really
enjoys in the university classroom, the debate, the rigor. I
used to say, challenge me, guys. But the NCEEA kids
(19:19):
were a bit formulaic and wanting templates which doesn't reflect
real life or model answers, all of those sorts of things.
And I didn't feel that what I had in the
university classroom was the result of a great preparation for
that university classroom. So my job at university was to
(19:40):
try and get them fit for the workforce in three
or four years or that's what I myself imposed task
was getting them fit for the workforce. And indeed I
had employers coming to me and saying, who have you
got for us this year?
Speaker 4 (19:54):
Check?
Speaker 6 (19:54):
And I'd try and get them into positions where I
knew they would flourish. But it was all about then
being encouraged to step up. And yes, exams hurdles are
a part of life and just getting used to them
with lots of little tests or whatever helps with the
big issues later when you do or don't get the job,
(20:16):
or you do or don't get the promotion.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Well we had excellence and merits and the good old days.
Once again, grumpy boomer. But I'm on a roll now,
so I mars. We'll keep going. You were marked between
one and one hundred. Fifty percent was the pass rate.
So if you got fifty one, your past. If you've
got forty nine, you failed. And life's like that.
Speaker 6 (20:34):
And it was interesting to me when this generation started
coming through any of the education system. It was about
the same time when we were getting all the you
are the weakest link goodbye, all the elimination programs, and
we see them in cookery, we see them on Love Island,
we see them in shases and tasks, all those things.
The elimination people actually like to know where they are
(20:57):
in the pack. They like to know they're the head
of the pack at number one, all that they're in
the middle of the pack and safe from dropping out
or being singled out for something that they don't feel
up to. So the ranking used to be actually part
of human psyche and honestly, I think it still is.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
I think of the greatest elimination show of all time.
Not really, but I'm saying this facetiously. The Apprentice Trump,
you're fired here, you're either in around Hey. How does
this tie in with what Brooke van Velden was saying
the other day about kids collecting eggs? Was she misquoted?
Was it fake news?
Speaker 4 (21:35):
Trump?
Speaker 6 (21:36):
I think there was some muddling going on, and yes,
Federated Farmers said it was a misinterpretation. But knowing that
to my classroom. By the time I got back to Massy,
so that was two thousand and seven, the classes were
sort of fifty fifty town and country, and it always
seemed to me that the country kids had basic, more
(21:59):
general sort of experience, and they often had help with
the cards and whatever, depending on the parenting, of course.
And as I moved through to the University of Waikato
there tended to be some more protection going on, but urban.
The urban kids were there because they really thought agriculture
might be the future, so they had a different sort
(22:22):
of resilience. But what I usually found quite quite extraordinary
at the University of Waikato there were people coming in
from other disciplines, and yeah, they were often the ones
who didn't think that exams were really for them, sort
of coming out of the creative and performing arts or
social sciences. And while we always try and assist all students,
(22:49):
the exams are a part of life in if we
don't call them exams, they might be the interview. We
don't want people going to pieces because they stuffed up
a question at an interview. That's how you look. Exams
are how you learn.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Now, Jacqueline, we've been saying lots about lots of things,
and we've neglected to mention your excellent column on trends
that are appairing. This dates back to a rabobank story
or report earlier in the year, so people can read
that one online. But it's interesting that the theme of
the column is really about biologicals. And I must say
(23:23):
I didn't know what a biological was, but I learned
a lot reading your column. So thereof teased your column.
People can read it on the Country, dot co, dot NZ.
It's God Doctor Jacqueline Roweth on the Country. This is
the best of the Country, the best bits of our
weekday show. Twelve to one. I'm Jamie McKay. The show
(23:44):
is brought to you by Rabobank. Up next Emma Higgins,
senior ag analysts for Rabobank on the prospect of a
ten dollar Holy Grail Trifecta for farming, Jane Smith Council's
Coal climate change hysteria, plus having a cup of tea
with Damien o Connor and the Greens. Now talking about
Rabobank and their senior ag analysts. We've got one of
(24:05):
them on the show next week, and that is because
she is going to be in Western Australia as a
part of the Rabobank Sheep and Wooll Knowledge Tour, which
will take in visits to several operations across Western Australia's
sheep farming sector. The tour will provide attendees with insights
(24:26):
into the unique role Western Australia plays in Australia's agricultural
landscape due to its geographical distance and export orientated market.
Make sure you tune into next Thursday's show when I'll
be catching up with senior ag analyst Jen Corkran up
next to Emma Higgins.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
The best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
She is a senior AG analyst for Rabobank. Think one
of the shortest titles in the Rabobank stable. Actually, Emma
Higgan's always good to get her on the show. We've
chatted to Matt Boulger from Fonterra about the GDT auction.
Do you think another positive auction as ten dollars? I
know you're going to I know you're going to duck
for cover on this one, Emma, But as ten dollars
done and dusted for the twenty five twenty sixth season, well,
(25:19):
you know I.
Speaker 7 (25:20):
Might surprise you here. Look, I do think ten dollars
is looking pretty good right now. There's a few things
as usual, put my caveats in there. I think the
big one is really how the market will respond over
the next several weeks when we're coming into critical timing
for MILT production, and also the bulk of our volume
(25:40):
that is offered on the GDT platform tends to step
up over the next sort of seven GDTs as well,
So how all of that aligns with potentially bumper spring
milk production will be critical as to how that ten
dollar price point moves at this point in time, I believe.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
Let's talk about tariffs. Now, this is the first GDT
auction I think that was affected or factored factoring in
a fifteen percent tariff to the US. And as I
discussed with Matt, obviously the US isn't a huge dairy
market compared to what it is for the likes of
red meat and wine. But what sort of effect do
you think it's having aon dairy and be more importantly
(26:21):
in your wheelhouse on red meat?
Speaker 7 (26:24):
Yeah, and look at us quite an interesting one, isn't it,
Because we're all sort of finding our feet in terms
of what might happen from here. Look, I think in
terms of dairy New Zealand really stands to benefit and
I'm sure you've probably heard it from some of your
other commentators just around how New Zealand could ultimately look
to supply any gaps that might emerge due to other
(26:44):
more unfavorable tariff amounts that are being imposed. But ultimately,
the biggest story I think the New Zealand farmers really
comes down to what's happening in the red meat space
and specifically to beef, because what we've got is a
really interesting dynamic starting to emerge we've got steady farmgate
pricing for beef, which is excellent at the farm gate
price here in New Zealand. We've got a US important
(27:06):
market which is incredibly strong due to the lack of
supply domestically and the fact that they've got low inventries
and the herd rebuilding is then just happening. But we
need to layer on top of that the dynamics with
Brazil because what's been happening is that they have front
loaded a heck of a lot of products into the
(27:27):
United States. There's around about three hundred thousand tons of
beef that's entered into the US so far. Normally they
are in parallel with our volumes, which are currently sitting
at around one hundred and fifty thousand tons. So the
exports are up over one hundred percent year and year,
and what we think has been happening is that they've
been trying to front load that product into the US market.
(27:49):
Because when we add all the various carrier terraffs and
quota amounts, etc. All up, it looks like Brazil are
facing around a seventy six percent tariff. So because of that,
we're expecting that those products from Brazil are likely to
start slowing down, but the probably the impact for New
(28:10):
Zealand farmers is that we're likely to continue to see
steady pricing for beef and less upside as the US
market continues to digest one of really strong volumes that
have shipped across from Brazil. The good news is that
that herd rebuild is happening in the States. It's only
just kicked off. We think the cow cull is down
(28:31):
and we know that their hefer attentions are only just
starting to lift at the moment, So we think the
good news is that the steady market looks to be
in play for the next three to four years. New
Zealand does have a slight disadvantage when it comes to tariff,
having a fifteen percent number compared to a ten percent
imposed for Australia, so all things being equal, it does
(28:54):
put us on slightly back foot, but the dynamics are
so strong that I think New you and will be okay.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
Emma Higgins, thank you very much for your time today
on the country from Rabobank. Imagine if we got the
trifecta ten dollar milk price, ten dollar beef price, ten
dollar lamb price, that would be farming utopia, wouldn't it.
Speaker 7 (29:16):
And look two out of three ain't bad in the
words of meat loaf, and we're possibly there on sheep meat,
so we'll see.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Well, well to see what happens with beef. Not not
a bad weeplay on words there from you either, Emma.
Thanks for your time, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agri banking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Rabobank opening the batting on the country today is North
Otago farmer and sharer. Can I call her that? Jane Smith,
former winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards. And Jane,
you've taken time out from the woolshed where you've been
on the end of the handpiece crutching the ram hoggots.
Speaker 8 (29:55):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, I certainly wouldn't describe myself as
a share I can't share it. And I'm a very
broken down crutch er. A loo had a crutch when
I worked for Landcorp many years ago down in Na
Basin and I've never got any better since. So yeah,
not tidy and not fast, but luckily no one's taying
me to do it, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
So let's move on to the topics of the day.
You want to talk about counsel's coal and climate change hysteria.
Just before we get onto your subjects. You did send
me a text the other day after my chat with
doctor Jaqueline Rowath on Snowflakes and the education system. Did
you buy into what she's saying?
Speaker 8 (30:30):
Oh, it was fascinating, Jamie, And I just wish that
interview had gone on for longer. And I said that
to Jack Celine. I really found that really fascinating to see,
and I mean she sees it with a different tranches
of students coming through. You know, you've read sort of
half a generation, and I found that really fascinating. So
it'd be really good to delve into that a bit more, Jamie.
And what I totally agreed with everything that Jacqueline sees
(30:51):
and not making out that the current generation a snowflakes. Gosh,
we've got some really great young people around us, but
there's just different expectations out there and different sectors of
these young people. And I think, you know, actually did
just go back to some of those old school you know,
actually just get on with the job and work your
butt off to get somewhere, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Absolutely councils call climate change. Where do you want to start?
Speaker 8 (31:13):
Well, it's been really interesting, Jamie to see the nominees
coming through for the local body elections. So you know,
it's particularly fascinated with Deleedan's nominee lists that may have
taken the diversity theory a bridge too far. And I
see on our front page of their target out at
times today there's a vampire self obtain vampire running running
for the miyor of Dunedin. And again we want diversity,
(31:35):
but I guess it's a bigger picture. And we've heard
this from Shane Jones and we've heard it from Alan
Emerson actually this week when he said we need to
put regional councils out of their misery, and that wasn't
so much the people that are standing. He was talking
about the cost of these large juggernauts is really very
costly in terms of the opportunity costs if they're not
getting things done. And you know, this can be some
(31:57):
really good people around the table, but they're oft of
and overshadowed by headline seeking hijackers. And we've seen that
that it all around the country, including my own y
Techi District Communists Council. Sorry, we we've had senior staff
and outside consultants actually running the show. And when the
rider becomes heavier than the horse, shamie, it's not good,
(32:19):
not good for anybody.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
Cole, I assume you're talking about the Indonesian coal were importing.
Speaker 8 (32:25):
Yeah, it's really really interesting, isn't it to say, see
that those four, you know, that cartail of power companies
are now bringing in that coal and that was always
happening anyway, but you know, they're obviously stopped piling it.
But the point of this isn't so much what they're doing,
it's fact that it's a wake up call. So so
many New Zealanders wake up every morning thinking that their
electricity magically appears from out of space and that the
(32:48):
more electricity they use versus fossil fuels, there somehow saving
the planet, when actually the reality is that alternate alternative energy.
So because I'd rather called it that than renewable or energy,
because to me, the only really renewable energy is the
water based energy that's coming from the dams up our
local Whitechi Valley. But it is unreliable renewable energy unpredictive
(33:12):
in terms of being able to know when you're going
to get peaks and troughs and expensive, Jamie. And we
see the holier than now companies like Pontier at the moment.
I see they've apported one hundred thousand tons of wood
palettes from Vietnam, so one could assume that it's probably
from rainforests to run their Canterbury milk plants. Now, they
were in the paper, you know, as headlines saying wasn't
(33:34):
it great that they got rid of their coal five furnaces?
So I'm not sure that you know that this solution
is any better. And then they sit on the holy
pulpit with Mesle given a sermon on how farmers should
drop their natural biogenic emissions. I mean, it just seems
to be a lack of insight and fullesight and transparency
on this shaming.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
So you'll be voting in New Zealand first, and Shane
Jones Drill, baby, drill.
Speaker 8 (33:58):
I'm not sure about I'll go the whole hole with
New Zealand first, Jamie. But I'm certainly you know again
they've got that cause, the ability to just be upfront
and actually say this is what the country needs, or
we paid the price attentions to the cost of living
and it's not going to be the wealthy amongst New
Zealanders that are going to pay the price. It's going
to be again our poorest communities that hit the hardest.
(34:20):
Amy energy, food, fuel costs are going to go through
the roofs. So absolutely we need to bring in house
some of these energy solutions, which is actually going back
to the pestue and that's what we used to do
and actually just being self sufficient as much as we can.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Jamie, you talked.
Speaker 3 (34:36):
About climate change hysteria. Well, I think the biggest beatup
of recent times has been the price of butter. People
are getting exercised over that. Mikey Sherman door stopping poor
old Miles Hurrell when he was going to Parliament to
explain to Nicola about the price of butter, which was
a complete sham. She's got a big background in Fonterra.
(34:56):
She knew the answers anyhow Yet we don't seem to
get as exercised over like you mentioned, electricity costs, our
rates are eraught and not to mention our insurance.
Speaker 8 (35:08):
Exactly Jamie, and just saying that the number of costs
that are just just meaningless exercises. You look at the
to talk to a farmer last night that went to
the Waateeqi Wakato Regional Council a new palatial palace. So
that's a forty three million dollar building with an eight
point nine million dollar fit out. So get this, They've
got releaks at relaxation rooms, they've got a table tennis room,
(35:31):
and even better than that, they've got a machine that
drives your umbrella when you walp in. I mean, that
is just opulence beyond belief and it actually makes our
Targa Regional Council building not seem so bad. But again
the reality is we actually need to have a a
real come to Jesus around this and actually sit down
and work out our unitary authority is the best way forward,
(35:52):
what's the best way for our electricity, what's the best
way to predict protect our food producing areas? Because again
the loss of by diversity the land use change is huge,
and so I guess this climate change hysteria continues to
kill off genuine environmental and economic initiatives. Jamie, So I'll
be talking to the Green Party and actually meeting with
him in the next couple of weeks about that that
(36:14):
actually this unhinged obsession with admissions is going to cost
us all and our environment in the long term.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Now I had Damien, i'conna's coming to visit you on
your North Otago farm. I'd love to be a fly
on the wall while you and Damien are having a
cup of tea.
Speaker 8 (36:29):
Well at I'm looking forward to it, Jamie. I don't
think it will be a disagreement session. It's not going
to be like one of those Monty Python skits. I'm
really looking forward to it. And actually, what I've found
is politicians are quite often that they're most useful when
they are in opposition. So I'm looking forward to it.
Discussion with Jamien. Hopefully we can put under water under
the bridge and I won't certainly won't be calling him
(36:50):
the womy weather like I have been known Tom in
the past. But yeah, let's be constructive and the same
thing with I won't apologize for any conversations I'm having
with the Green Party. That's good for them to understand,
you know, where we going with food production in this country.
And I actually do think for those in the Green party,
they're actually left that are still there. I think they
will understand that, particularly Plumer Sheef and Beef six the
(37:12):
point of view by diversity, point of view and Land's
change point of view. Jamie, so yeah, bring it on.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Well, good luck meeting with the Greens. I think I'd
soon have a coupa with Damien any day. Jane Smith,
thank you very much for your time from your north
Otago farm. Get back on the handpiece and finish crutching
the ram Hoggitts the Zavo.
Speaker 8 (37:30):
Thanks Jammy.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
The best of the Country with Rubbo Back.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agri business experience.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Grow with Rubbo Back. It's a god awful smile.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Of that.
Speaker 9 (37:45):
To the go.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Jane Smith, north Otago Farmer, former winner of the Balance
Farm Environment Awards, wrapping the Best of the Country. Hope
you enjoyed the show today. I enjoyed bringing it to you.
It's the aspits of our weekday show twelve to one.
Tune in, have a crack, have a listen. Every listener
in radio is a prisoner and we do appreciate you.
(38:09):
I'm Jamie McKay. By the way, the show was brought
to you by Rabobank that I mentioned that, and we'll
be back again, same time, same place, next Saturday morning.
I'm going to leave you with David Bowie, one of
my favorite Bowie tracks. This is life on Mars. See
you next Saturdays.
Speaker 7 (38:37):
It's the.
Speaker 9 (38:46):
Wrong guy.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
Wondering now.
Speaker 8 (38:57):
Is the lame on man?
Speaker 9 (39:21):
It's on the merry cast hued brow.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
That mickey mouse has.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Grown off the cow.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Now the workers have struck the fame.
Speaker 9 (39:33):
There's lemons and sail again. See the mice in their
million hearts from my beaver to the north of broads.
Will pretend your resounds of pounds to my mother and
my dog and pounds. But the film is a sadic
(39:55):
bombs because I wrote it ten times on mar.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
It's about to be rich again.
Speaker 9 (40:04):
But I ask you to know for some snake clicking
in the dance hall, no man. The dose game then goes.
It's the breaking of Shallow. They can't look at the
man cringing up the wrong guys man.
Speaker 5 (40:28):
I never reveal the nose.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
It's just the best selling Shallow.
Speaker 9 (40:36):
It's the live mo
The best of the Country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Okay and good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. Welcome
to the Best of the Country, brought to you each
and every Saturday morning here on Newstalk sa'd be by Rabobank.
We're growing a better New Zealand together. Going to kick
off today's show with farmer Tom Martin our UK or
British farming correspondent, big social media influencer over there. Believe
it or not, he is suing along with his father,
(00:50):
the British government over the very controversial inheritance tax. Cameron Bagri.
Independent Economists caught up with them midweek talking about taraff
a drop in the ocr the unemployment rate in the
threat of stagflation. Doctor Jacqueline Roweth one of New Zealand's
leading primary sector academics. After a lifetime and education, I
(01:13):
ask her if today's students are snowflakes who can't handle
exam pressure and subsequent life pressures. Emma Higgins and Jane
Smith to wrap the show. It's the Best of the
Country brought to you by Rabobank, the.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank with
a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Here's our farming correspondent in the UK, Farmer Tom Martin's
social media influencer, and now he can add to his
list of achievements sewer of the government. Yes, he's suing
the government over the very very unpopular inheritance tax in
the UK for farmers and farmer Tom, you've got big
time support on this or support on high places, President Trump.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Well, that's true. I mean I don't want to pick
you up in your terminology there, Jenny, but I wouldn't
describe myself as the sewer of the government. The sewer
of the government, of course, is down in down in Westminster.
But yeah, it's great, I mean great to hear Trump
just speaking so candidly. And you know, he's an interesting character,
isn't He is neiled the don but certainly speaking pretty
(02:26):
passionately about his farmers and the way that he is
he thinks he's protecting them. I mean, he did say
that we there's not an estate tax at all in
the US. There actually is, But I think the I
think the threshold is fifteen million or thirty millions for
a couple, so that's you know that that's a significant difference.
And it was fascinating watching Starmer squirm and then try
(02:48):
to try to kind of pipe in with oh, you know,
we're only doing a little one and you know it's
only it's only a couple of percent, and really really
feeling awkward. And wasn't it fascinating to see you know,
Trump holding court. I mean he's in he's in our countries,
in Scotland, and yet he was hosting as if he
would in the Oval Office in his own hotel, and
(03:08):
ursula underlining of the European Union, and Kit Stamer and
then the First Minister of Scotland all were ushered in
as if they were as if they were guests, as
if they were visitors, and yet you know, here we
are in Europe, in the UK, in Scotland.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
As bank roll in your legal case against the government,
Tom or have you just got deep pockets?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
There?
Speaker 4 (03:30):
There's a crowd I think we call it crowd justice.
There is a crowd justice campaign if you if you
wish to contribute, Jane, It's going to be pretty expensive,
but it's absolutely vital and we're basically taking the government
to judicial review and that's where we're challenging the process
that they followed in order to get to the to
to create the legislation to change the inheritance tax released
(03:53):
that were in place for the last for the last
forty years. We were effectively saying they didn't consult properly
and they didn't consult, which is which is absolutely true,
and the whole industry is in agreement about that. Frankly,
I think DEFRA is our Department for the Environment, Food
and Rural Affair are probably in agreement with that as well.
But this is this is a Treasury policy pushed by
(04:16):
the Treasury, stamped by the Chancellor and it could be,
amongst many things, the undoing this government.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Farmer Tom Martin, a UK farming correspondent on the Country
on Monday Show, part one of a two part interview.
Up next do we continue the interview discuss the TB
outbreak on Jeremy Clarkson's Didley Squat farm and did Wimbledon
cause the end of the UK drought? Cameron Begriy, Dr
Jackwell and Rowa. Emma Higgins from Rabobank on a ten
(04:50):
dollar Holy Grail Trifector for farming and Jane Smith all
on the Best of the Country brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
The Best of the Country with Rubber Beg the bank
with local agri banking experts passionate about the future of
rural communities rubber Bek.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Jeremy Clarkson Clarkson's farm, Didley Squat has gone down with TB,
and you're saying that this essentially could be a good thing.
The amount of exposure the TB and things like your
bedger Cull are going to get out of this will
be huge and Jeremy Clarkson is in a position to
sway public opinion.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Yeah. Absolutely. I mean it's never good to see. And
I've got lots of friends whose farms have gone down
with TV and it's always a tremendously pressured, emotional, difficult time.
You know, they are bloodlines that have been in many
cases established for generations and beloved cows you know named
who you know, they see them every day, they know
(05:51):
their character and personality. Who are cold because of a
possible or an inconclusive test that they might have you know,
they might have TV. But it's always a hard time
and I feel for Clarkson, but what he's great at
is showing his emotions, showing that he loves farming, and
(06:11):
he absolutely does, There's no doubt about it. I would
back him absolute to the hill. He is a farmer
through and through, he's one of us, and it will
be for the cause of dealing with TV. It'll be
a great thing because now not only is everyone across
the UK, but people around the world are aware of this.
I don't know. Maybe just does Trump watch Clarkson's farm,
(06:33):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Maybe well, I think he watches quite a bit a
reality TV while he's drinking his star At Cokes and
eating McDonald's hamburgers. Talking about the McDonald's hamburger, says, I
said earlier, we've got a fifteen percent tariff. You guys
have only got a ten percent terrorf So obviously Saki
has done something that's right.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Well, we're you know, I wonder equally if we're being played.
I mean, his his big target is the is the EU.
And yeah, so whether whether we're we're just being given
a slightly slightly better tariff as part of a bargaining
chip there, or whether it's just completely random US I
(07:15):
don't know for for for for UK farming, I'm not
quite sure what what significant effect it will have. A
lot of our big brands do export into the US,
but it's not a really it's not really a mass
market for US.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
It's not.
Speaker 4 (07:32):
It's not a huge, huge, significant market. It's very difficult
for for targeted industries. For That's why John Swinney, the
first Minuts just Scotland, was in with him with Trump,
because of course it's very difficult for salmon, very different
for Scott's whiskey, causing challenges in some areas. So shortbread, brisket,
biscuits and things like that are are tea is something
(07:53):
that we export into the kind of more luxury end
of the of the U S market. But I would
say for the for the for the broad UK agricultural market,
the US isn't isn't a huge destination for us.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
The drought it has ended. I told you Wimbledon would
sort it out.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
You promised, and you delivered. As ever, Javi, you're the
oracle and I really appreciate that. Yeah, across much of
the UK we have now had rain. We've now had
a lot of rain in some cases, but it was
a drought that was deep enough and long enough that
a lot of people have had their harvest severely affected.
That said, up in the north of England, up in Scotland,
(08:34):
there's been some fantastic silage, the wonderful hay made up there,
and yet two or three hundred miles away people are
making half the silage, half the hay, maybe even less
than that, and they typically be making And we're seeing
big differences across the UK in terms of soil types.
So the lighter soils the crops have been dying off
in the drought, the heavier soils that we often cursed
(08:56):
as we you know, sometimes do on our far but
our heavier soils of held out. And we are two
thirds of the way through a pretty average harvest, which
frankly i'd just snapped your hand off, or if you'd
offered me a month ago.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
I see. The call has come for UK farmers to
take climate change seriously, because the Met Office is issued
a stark warning that the UK is now experiencing a
notably different climate than it did just a few decades ago,
a shift or riving already having a visible impact on farming.
Tom I don't know how long you've been on the
(09:29):
family farm for but are you seeing that notable shift?
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Absolutely, and there are people all over are who are
who are skeptical, but there is no doubt that our
weather systems are changing and that means more extreme weather.
It doesn't necessarily and we're certainly getting hot to some
of them. We're we're seeing that significantly. But you know,
we get a cold patch in the winter and everyone
says our global warming is a load of nonsense, but
(09:55):
we're getting more extreme weather. So we are getting some
colder weather, we're getting some weather weather, we're getting long
periods of dry time. And the UK climate we're like
you guys, We're a maritime climate. We are used to
and we're built on relatively mild weather, relatively frequent rain,
and we've seen that's caused huge, huge issues for our wildlife,
(10:18):
for food production in the last few months with the drought.
But we you know, we had a tremendously wet sewing
time back in September and as I look at some
of my yield maps from the combine, we've been less
affective by the drought. They're more affected by the wet
in the winter. So you know, we're getting extreams of
wet and dry, hot and cold, more than we would
(10:39):
have previously in the one year. So we were absolutely
at the you know, the cold face when it comes
to comes to climate change, in climate variability.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
All right, Tom, I'll let you go to bed.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Thanks for your time, Thank ebuddy, the best of the
country with Rubbobank. Choose the bank with one hundred and
twenty years global egry business experience grow with Rubber Bank.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Cameron Bagriy is an independent economist. Lots to talk about
at the moment. We've got tariffs announced last Friday, ocr
to be announced, the next cut hopefully on August the twentieth,
and tomorrow unemployment figures are due to come out. Cameron,
let's start with tariffs. How badly is this going to
affect the New Zealand economy going from ten to fifteen percent?
Speaker 5 (11:24):
No, it's a marginal tweak. I guess you can look
at it through two lenses. In the hat probably three
lessons means, just look number one, while we went from
ten to fifteen, there's a little bit beyond me. Secondly,
if you look at ten or fifteen, it's a hell
of a lot lower. And what we're seeing across the
whole lot of other countries, so we can probably take
a little bit of deep press. So I think, well,
(11:46):
wasn't that bad is what we've seen in the rocks
of Brazil. But yeah, fifteen percent is still fifteen percent,
and that makes you less competitive, although in a relative sense,
our beef bang into the United States is going to
be a hell of a lot more competitive and lots
of the Brazilian.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Product, yeah, but not as competitive as the Ulsie beef.
Speaker 5 (12:05):
And that's the one that I guess surprises us. Why
Australia got ten and we got fifteen. Maybe its because
Australia is going to buy a whole lot more stuff
off the United States military equipment, etc. Etc. You know,
they've just got a bigger cheap book.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Well, they run a trade deficit with the US, whereas
we don't. We're almost even stevens. But you would think
trumps splitting here is a wee bit on that one.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
Yeah, well that's what the science behind this makes no sense.
In fact, the economics behind while we're going around shutting
tariff on various countries around the globe, is pretty marginal.
But what we know is that we now live in
an environment, or a system where what's called power is
now challenging rules and a power based system faces the
(12:53):
big boys, the big countries, and America's big and we're not.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Now Tom mcclay's going to on a plane fly over
to Washington. Do is damn just and good on him
to try and get us a better deal. He's peeing
into the northwestern right.
Speaker 5 (13:08):
I'd say say, yeah, yeah, I'll pay my head off
to Todd. He has been doing a remarkably good job,
along with a whole lot of the other minister's putting
New Zeon back on the map in regard to international
creit and there with grime. Hope there's going to be
some sort of deal between New zeal And India Twenda
before the end of the year. Better had tip to
hard work and hopefully we're going to see a bit
(13:28):
of payoff. But Americans, now, I think this thing's written
in stone.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Don't want to pit my economic mind against yours, Cameron
Baggery Better do want your opinion on this one. See,
I think the best thing we could do in this
country has dropped the official cash rate, and drop it quickly.
I know we're going to get one. On August the twentieth.
But you've got guys like John Key running around saying
we need to cut one hundred basis points. What say you, Oh.
Speaker 5 (13:54):
Look, I think the Reserve Bank's got another one, maybe
two up their sleeve. Bounced out of a recession the end
of twenty and twenty four, we're a decent quarter the
start of two thousand and twenty five. Look, so we've
done David Long and now stopped for a cup of tea.
You know, the rural sector's need doing a lot of
the heavy lifting over this last sort of sixty nine
(14:15):
months to get the economy back on the feet. You'd
sort of expect that the impact of lower interest rates
by the housing market the construction sector would start to
flow and we get that sort of second round, you
fat more propulsion. We're not seeing that at the moment.
Why because the fundamental is towards housing. The construction set
look good at the moment in regard to population growth,
(14:36):
that's demand relative to what's there in the market. We've
still got these structural problems. I had to the government
for the announcement they came out in regard to dropping
NCA getting stuck into the education sector. We need to
fix the roads. Those sort of things are just inhibited.
They're like a rugby player that's carrying an injury, and
you're carrying an injury, you're not going to get top performance.
And the Zealand be kind of at the moment unfortunately
(14:58):
it's carrying a whole lot of structural injury, and the
rezum bend can't fixie Dlopping interest rates is a sugar rust,
and you've got to be careful about how much sugar
that you pump into the economic system because it can
put you up on a bit of an artificial hire.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
So three point twenty five percent at the moment, you're
suggesting two point seventy five at best.
Speaker 5 (15:19):
Well at best subject to what's going on around the glibe.
Now the Chinese economy, for example, that the IMF just
upgraded the restimates for where they thought the Chinese economy
is going to be over twenty twenty five because they've
accepted expectations. So yeah, that's a piece of good news.
But if we see China or the United States you
(15:40):
kindly start to slow rapidly and the global economy starts
to go off rails, then you've probably got the recipe
for the carestraight game to two percent, and that's a scenario,
that's a possibility, it's not the central scenario that people
are painting at the moment. So we need to be
careful what we wish for.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
Now, Let's just.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Finish with the unemployment figures I think due out tomorrow
they experts or the pun and so a picking five
point three percent, which on the face of it doesn't
appear incredibly high to some of the other unemployment rates
we've had that have been close to double digit. But
are we in danger of the stagflation? That is a
word that's being thrown around at the moment.
Speaker 5 (16:17):
Yeah, and it's an arsty word that we don't like
to see. But if you look at the Reserve Bank's
latest estimate for second quarter GDP and it's the gym quarter,
it's a negative number. I'm not reading too much into
possibly ever one negative number at the moment, but there's
a lot of uncertainty up there, whether you look at
(16:37):
globally with create tensions or where you look at potential politically.
What we're seeing here in New Zealand that the housing
market is not taking over that economic battern. We've got
those structural issues, yes, so the growth side of the
leader is still pretty tepid. At the same time, we've
got rising headline in flce. What's good for the farmers
is not necessarily good for people at the supermarkets. And
we're having a good old fashioned debate over the price
(16:59):
of butter. The prizes me because you know, cound of
butter is less than a point of beer. Ah, so
you need sometimes you need to put it in a
routive sense in regard to what's going on. But electricity bills,
local authorities rates, they're all on the up. So the
summer speaks of this inflation. We dynamic that's got a
(17:19):
little bit of stickiness and inflations of thief that steers
money out of people's pockets. And people don't like that thief.
So we want to get rid of inflation. Unfortunately, how
to get rid of inflation, you need to have weak
growth because when you've got strong growth or an economy
that's ripping alarm, people can start to put up prices.
It's very difficult to put up prices if you're retailer
for your construction firm when you've got no demand. On
(17:39):
the other side, well.
Speaker 3 (17:40):
I absolutely agree with you. We're barking up the wrong
tree with butter insurance rates, energy costs. Those are the
things we really need to concentrate on, Cameron Bagriy two
great economic minds, Well not quite, but I did appreciate
your input.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Well the best, an't it the best of the country
with Rubber Bank.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agri business experience.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Grow with rubberback Fortnightly. She writes an excellent column for
US doctor Jaquelin Rowith. They're going to come back to
that one because this week's offering is a beauty. But Jacqueline,
you've spent a lifetime in education. What did you make
of yesterday's big announcement from the government abolishing NCA Because
(18:22):
I think, and I'm sounding like a grumpy old boomer here, Jacqueline,
that you know, younger people are snowflakes. Exam pressure is
just part of life. You are the past or you
fail when you leave school.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
Yeah, hurdles are part of life. And remember I have
no children, So what I'm talking about is experience from
the classroom. And coming back from University of Melbourne in
two thousand and seven, it was quite a shock to
me not having talked first here for seven years to
see what the children will like as a product from NCEEA,
(18:57):
and this was fairly at the beginning. Nevertheless, it was
a fairly disappointing experience. It was lacking in pushback and
questioning and all the sorts of things that one really
enjoys in the university classroom, the debate, the rigor. I
used to say, challenge me, guys. But the NCEEA kids
(19:19):
were a bit formulaic and wanting templates which doesn't reflect
real life or model answers, all of those sorts of things.
And I didn't feel that what I had in the
university classroom was the result of a great preparation for
that university classroom. So my job at university was to
(19:40):
try and get them fit for the workforce in three
or four years or that's what I myself imposed task
was getting them fit for the workforce. And indeed I
had employers coming to me and saying, who have you
got for us this year?
Speaker 4 (19:54):
Check?
Speaker 6 (19:54):
And I'd try and get them into positions where I
knew they would flourish. But it was all about then
being encouraged to step up. And yes, exams hurdles are
a part of life and just getting used to them
with lots of little tests or whatever helps with the
big issues later when you do or don't get the job,
(20:16):
or you do or don't get the promotion.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Well we had excellence and merits and the good old days.
Once again, grumpy boomer. But I'm on a roll now,
so I mars. We'll keep going. You were marked between
one and one hundred. Fifty percent was the pass rate.
So if you got fifty one, your past. If you've
got forty nine, you failed. And life's like that.
Speaker 6 (20:34):
And it was interesting to me when this generation started
coming through any of the education system. It was about
the same time when we were getting all the you
are the weakest link goodbye, all the elimination programs, and
we see them in cookery, we see them on Love Island,
we see them in shases and tasks, all those things.
The elimination people actually like to know where they are
(20:57):
in the pack. They like to know they're the head
of the pack at number one, all that they're in
the middle of the pack and safe from dropping out
or being singled out for something that they don't feel
up to. So the ranking used to be actually part
of human psyche and honestly, I think it still is.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
I think of the greatest elimination show of all time.
Not really, but I'm saying this facetiously. The Apprentice Trump,
you're fired here, you're either in around Hey. How does
this tie in with what Brooke van Velden was saying
the other day about kids collecting eggs? Was she misquoted?
Was it fake news?
Speaker 4 (21:35):
Trump?
Speaker 6 (21:36):
I think there was some muddling going on, and yes,
Federated Farmers said it was a misinterpretation. But knowing that
to my classroom. By the time I got back to Massy,
so that was two thousand and seven, the classes were
sort of fifty fifty town and country, and it always
seemed to me that the country kids had basic, more
(21:59):
general sort of experience, and they often had help with
the cards and whatever, depending on the parenting, of course.
And as I moved through to the University of Waikato
there tended to be some more protection going on, but urban.
The urban kids were there because they really thought agriculture
might be the future, so they had a different sort
(22:22):
of resilience. But what I usually found quite quite extraordinary
at the University of Waikato there were people coming in
from other disciplines, and yeah, they were often the ones
who didn't think that exams were really for them, sort
of coming out of the creative and performing arts or
social sciences. And while we always try and assist all students,
(22:49):
the exams are a part of life in if we
don't call them exams, they might be the interview. We
don't want people going to pieces because they stuffed up
a question at an interview. That's how you look. Exams
are how you learn.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Now, Jacqueline, we've been saying lots about lots of things,
and we've neglected to mention your excellent column on trends
that are appairing. This dates back to a rabobank story
or report earlier in the year, so people can read
that one online. But it's interesting that the theme of
the column is really about biologicals. And I must say
(23:23):
I didn't know what a biological was, but I learned
a lot reading your column. So thereof teased your column.
People can read it on the Country, dot co, dot NZ.
It's God Doctor Jacqueline Roweth on the Country. This is
the best of the Country, the best bits of our
weekday show. Twelve to one. I'm Jamie McKay. The show
(23:44):
is brought to you by Rabobank. Up next Emma Higgins,
senior ag analysts for Rabobank on the prospect of a
ten dollar Holy Grail Trifecta for farming, Jane Smith Council's
Coal climate change hysteria, plus having a cup of tea
with Damien o Connor and the Greens. Now talking about
Rabobank and their senior ag analysts. We've got one of
(24:05):
them on the show next week, and that is because
she is going to be in Western Australia as a
part of the Rabobank Sheep and Wooll Knowledge Tour, which
will take in visits to several operations across Western Australia's
sheep farming sector. The tour will provide attendees with insights
(24:26):
into the unique role Western Australia plays in Australia's agricultural
landscape due to its geographical distance and export orientated market.
Make sure you tune into next Thursday's show when I'll
be catching up with senior ag analyst Jen Corkran up
next to Emma Higgins.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
The best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
She is a senior AG analyst for Rabobank. Think one
of the shortest titles in the Rabobank stable. Actually, Emma
Higgan's always good to get her on the show. We've
chatted to Matt Boulger from Fonterra about the GDT auction.
Do you think another positive auction as ten dollars? I
know you're going to I know you're going to duck
for cover on this one, Emma, But as ten dollars
done and dusted for the twenty five twenty sixth season, well,
(25:19):
you know I.
Speaker 7 (25:20):
Might surprise you here. Look, I do think ten dollars
is looking pretty good right now. There's a few things
as usual, put my caveats in there. I think the
big one is really how the market will respond over
the next several weeks when we're coming into critical timing
for MILT production, and also the bulk of our volume
(25:40):
that is offered on the GDT platform tends to step
up over the next sort of seven GDTs as well,
So how all of that aligns with potentially bumper spring
milk production will be critical as to how that ten
dollar price point moves at this point in time, I believe.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
Let's talk about tariffs. Now, this is the first GDT
auction I think that was affected or factored factoring in
a fifteen percent tariff to the US. And as I
discussed with Matt, obviously the US isn't a huge dairy
market compared to what it is for the likes of
red meat and wine. But what sort of effect do
you think it's having aon dairy and be more importantly
(26:21):
in your wheelhouse on red meat?
Speaker 7 (26:24):
Yeah, and look at us quite an interesting one, isn't it,
Because we're all sort of finding our feet in terms
of what might happen from here. Look, I think in
terms of dairy New Zealand really stands to benefit and
I'm sure you've probably heard it from some of your
other commentators just around how New Zealand could ultimately look
to supply any gaps that might emerge due to other
(26:44):
more unfavorable tariff amounts that are being imposed. But ultimately,
the biggest story I think the New Zealand farmers really
comes down to what's happening in the red meat space
and specifically to beef, because what we've got is a
really interesting dynamic starting to emerge we've got steady farmgate
pricing for beef, which is excellent at the farm gate
price here in New Zealand. We've got a US important
(27:06):
market which is incredibly strong due to the lack of
supply domestically and the fact that they've got low inventries
and the herd rebuilding is then just happening. But we
need to layer on top of that the dynamics with
Brazil because what's been happening is that they have front
loaded a heck of a lot of products into the
(27:27):
United States. There's around about three hundred thousand tons of
beef that's entered into the US so far. Normally they
are in parallel with our volumes, which are currently sitting
at around one hundred and fifty thousand tons. So the
exports are up over one hundred percent year and year,
and what we think has been happening is that they've
been trying to front load that product into the US market.
(27:49):
Because when we add all the various carrier terraffs and
quota amounts, etc. All up, it looks like Brazil are
facing around a seventy six percent tariff. So because of that,
we're expecting that those products from Brazil are likely to
start slowing down, but the probably the impact for New
(28:10):
Zealand farmers is that we're likely to continue to see
steady pricing for beef and less upside as the US
market continues to digest one of really strong volumes that
have shipped across from Brazil. The good news is that
that herd rebuild is happening in the States. It's only
just kicked off. We think the cow cull is down
(28:31):
and we know that their hefer attentions are only just
starting to lift at the moment, So we think the
good news is that the steady market looks to be
in play for the next three to four years. New
Zealand does have a slight disadvantage when it comes to tariff,
having a fifteen percent number compared to a ten percent
imposed for Australia, so all things being equal, it does
(28:54):
put us on slightly back foot, but the dynamics are
so strong that I think New you and will be okay.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
Emma Higgins, thank you very much for your time today
on the country from Rabobank. Imagine if we got the
trifecta ten dollar milk price, ten dollar beef price, ten
dollar lamb price, that would be farming utopia, wouldn't it.
Speaker 7 (29:16):
And look two out of three ain't bad in the
words of meat loaf, and we're possibly there on sheep meat,
so we'll see.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Well, well to see what happens with beef. Not not
a bad weeplay on words there from you either, Emma.
Thanks for your time, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agri banking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Rabobank opening the batting on the country today is North
Otago farmer and sharer. Can I call her that? Jane Smith,
former winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards. And Jane,
you've taken time out from the woolshed where you've been
on the end of the handpiece crutching the ram hoggots.
Speaker 8 (29:55):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, I certainly wouldn't describe myself as
a share I can't share it. And I'm a very
broken down crutch er. A loo had a crutch when
I worked for Landcorp many years ago down in Na
Basin and I've never got any better since. So yeah,
not tidy and not fast, but luckily no one's taying
me to do it, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
So let's move on to the topics of the day.
You want to talk about counsel's coal and climate change hysteria.
Just before we get onto your subjects. You did send
me a text the other day after my chat with
doctor Jaqueline Rowath on Snowflakes and the education system. Did
you buy into what she's saying?
Speaker 8 (30:30):
Oh, it was fascinating, Jamie, And I just wish that
interview had gone on for longer. And I said that
to Jack Celine. I really found that really fascinating to see,
and I mean she sees it with a different tranches
of students coming through. You know, you've read sort of
half a generation, and I found that really fascinating. So
it'd be really good to delve into that a bit more, Jamie.
And what I totally agreed with everything that Jacqueline sees
(30:51):
and not making out that the current generation a snowflakes. Gosh,
we've got some really great young people around us, but
there's just different expectations out there and different sectors of
these young people. And I think, you know, actually did
just go back to some of those old school you know,
actually just get on with the job and work your
butt off to get somewhere, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Absolutely councils call climate change. Where do you want to start?
Speaker 8 (31:13):
Well, it's been really interesting, Jamie to see the nominees
coming through for the local body elections. So you know,
it's particularly fascinated with Deleedan's nominee lists that may have
taken the diversity theory a bridge too far. And I
see on our front page of their target out at
times today there's a vampire self obtain vampire running running
for the miyor of Dunedin. And again we want diversity,
(31:35):
but I guess it's a bigger picture. And we've heard
this from Shane Jones and we've heard it from Alan
Emerson actually this week when he said we need to
put regional councils out of their misery, and that wasn't
so much the people that are standing. He was talking
about the cost of these large juggernauts is really very
costly in terms of the opportunity costs if they're not
getting things done. And you know, this can be some
(31:57):
really good people around the table, but they're oft of
and overshadowed by headline seeking hijackers. And we've seen that
that it all around the country, including my own y
Techi District Communists Council. Sorry, we we've had senior staff
and outside consultants actually running the show. And when the
rider becomes heavier than the horse, shamie, it's not good,
(32:19):
not good for anybody.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
Cole, I assume you're talking about the Indonesian coal were importing.
Speaker 8 (32:25):
Yeah, it's really really interesting, isn't it to say, see
that those four, you know, that cartail of power companies
are now bringing in that coal and that was always
happening anyway, but you know, they're obviously stopped piling it.
But the point of this isn't so much what they're doing,
it's fact that it's a wake up call. So so
many New Zealanders wake up every morning thinking that their
electricity magically appears from out of space and that the
(32:48):
more electricity they use versus fossil fuels, there somehow saving
the planet, when actually the reality is that alternate alternative energy.
So because I'd rather called it that than renewable or energy,
because to me, the only really renewable energy is the
water based energy that's coming from the dams up our
local Whitechi Valley. But it is unreliable renewable energy unpredictive
(33:12):
in terms of being able to know when you're going
to get peaks and troughs and expensive, Jamie. And we
see the holier than now companies like Pontier at the moment.
I see they've apported one hundred thousand tons of wood
palettes from Vietnam, so one could assume that it's probably
from rainforests to run their Canterbury milk plants. Now, they
were in the paper, you know, as headlines saying wasn't
(33:34):
it great that they got rid of their coal five furnaces?
So I'm not sure that you know that this solution
is any better. And then they sit on the holy
pulpit with Mesle given a sermon on how farmers should
drop their natural biogenic emissions. I mean, it just seems
to be a lack of insight and fullesight and transparency
on this shaming.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
So you'll be voting in New Zealand first, and Shane
Jones Drill, baby, drill.
Speaker 8 (33:58):
I'm not sure about I'll go the whole hole with
New Zealand first, Jamie. But I'm certainly you know again
they've got that cause, the ability to just be upfront
and actually say this is what the country needs, or
we paid the price attentions to the cost of living
and it's not going to be the wealthy amongst New
Zealanders that are going to pay the price. It's going
to be again our poorest communities that hit the hardest.
(34:20):
Amy energy, food, fuel costs are going to go through
the roofs. So absolutely we need to bring in house
some of these energy solutions, which is actually going back
to the pestue and that's what we used to do
and actually just being self sufficient as much as we can.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Jamie, you talked.
Speaker 3 (34:36):
About climate change hysteria. Well, I think the biggest beatup
of recent times has been the price of butter. People
are getting exercised over that. Mikey Sherman door stopping poor
old Miles Hurrell when he was going to Parliament to
explain to Nicola about the price of butter, which was
a complete sham. She's got a big background in Fonterra.
(34:56):
She knew the answers anyhow Yet we don't seem to
get as exercised over like you mentioned, electricity costs, our
rates are eraught and not to mention our insurance.
Speaker 8 (35:08):
Exactly Jamie, and just saying that the number of costs
that are just just meaningless exercises. You look at the
to talk to a farmer last night that went to
the Waateeqi Wakato Regional Council a new palatial palace. So
that's a forty three million dollar building with an eight
point nine million dollar fit out. So get this, They've
got releaks at relaxation rooms, they've got a table tennis room,
(35:31):
and even better than that, they've got a machine that
drives your umbrella when you walp in. I mean, that
is just opulence beyond belief and it actually makes our
Targa Regional Council building not seem so bad. But again
the reality is we actually need to have a a
real come to Jesus around this and actually sit down
and work out our unitary authority is the best way forward,
(35:52):
what's the best way for our electricity, what's the best
way to predict protect our food producing areas? Because again
the loss of by diversity the land use change is huge,
and so I guess this climate change hysteria continues to
kill off genuine environmental and economic initiatives. Jamie, So I'll
be talking to the Green Party and actually meeting with
him in the next couple of weeks about that that
(36:14):
actually this unhinged obsession with admissions is going to cost
us all and our environment in the long term.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Now I had Damien, i'conna's coming to visit you on
your North Otago farm. I'd love to be a fly
on the wall while you and Damien are having a
cup of tea.
Speaker 8 (36:29):
Well at I'm looking forward to it, Jamie. I don't
think it will be a disagreement session. It's not going
to be like one of those Monty Python skits. I'm
really looking forward to it. And actually, what I've found
is politicians are quite often that they're most useful when
they are in opposition. So I'm looking forward to it.
Discussion with Jamien. Hopefully we can put under water under
the bridge and I won't certainly won't be calling him
(36:50):
the womy weather like I have been known Tom in
the past. But yeah, let's be constructive and the same
thing with I won't apologize for any conversations I'm having
with the Green Party. That's good for them to understand,
you know, where we going with food production in this country.
And I actually do think for those in the Green party,
they're actually left that are still there. I think they
will understand that, particularly Plumer Sheef and Beef six the
(37:12):
point of view by diversity, point of view and Land's
change point of view. Jamie, so yeah, bring it on.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Well, good luck meeting with the Greens. I think I'd
soon have a coupa with Damien any day. Jane Smith,
thank you very much for your time from your north
Otago farm. Get back on the handpiece and finish crutching
the ram Hoggitts the Zavo.
Speaker 8 (37:30):
Thanks Jammy.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
The best of the Country with Rubbo Back.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agri business experience.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Grow with Rubbo Back. It's a god awful smile.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Of that.
Speaker 9 (37:45):
To the go.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Jane Smith, north Otago Farmer, former winner of the Balance
Farm Environment Awards, wrapping the Best of the Country. Hope
you enjoyed the show today. I enjoyed bringing it to you.
It's the aspits of our weekday show twelve to one.
Tune in, have a crack, have a listen. Every listener
in radio is a prisoner and we do appreciate you.
(38:09):
I'm Jamie McKay. By the way, the show was brought
to you by Rabobank that I mentioned that, and we'll
be back again, same time, same place, next Saturday morning.
I'm going to leave you with David Bowie, one of
my favorite Bowie tracks. This is life on Mars. See
you next Saturdays.
Speaker 7 (38:37):
It's the.
Speaker 9 (38:46):
Wrong guy.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
Wondering now.
Speaker 8 (38:57):
Is the lame on man?
Speaker 9 (39:21):
It's on the merry cast hued brow.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
That mickey mouse has.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Grown off the cow.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Now the workers have struck the fame.
Speaker 9 (39:33):
There's lemons and sail again. See the mice in their
million hearts from my beaver to the north of broads.
Will pretend your resounds of pounds to my mother and
my dog and pounds. But the film is a sadic
(39:55):
bombs because I wrote it ten times on mar.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
It's about to be rich again.
Speaker 9 (40:04):
But I ask you to know for some snake clicking
in the dance hall, no man. The dose game then goes.
It's the breaking of Shallow. They can't look at the
man cringing up the wrong guys man.
Speaker 5 (40:28):
I never reveal the nose.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
It's just the best selling Shallow.
Speaker 9 (40:36):
It's the live mo
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