August 22, 2025 • 39 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Stephen Fleming, Christopher Luxon, Michael Every, and Graeme Williams.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the Country with Rubbobank. Choose the bank
with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience grow
with Rubbobank.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Where is the sun that show on the head then
it instead it is dead? Where is the lights that
would play in and where are the.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Can I m Good morning, New Zealand. My name is
Jamie McKay. This is the best of the Country brought
to you each and every Saturday morning here on News
Talk ZB by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
I've cheated a wee bit. This music was on my
button bar to use a radio terminology from Wednesday show,
so I carried on with my eg's theme because I
was too lazy to change it. Anyhow, great music, great band.
(01:03):
Got a great interview to kick off the Best of
the Country today. It is my favorite interview of the week.
Stephen Fleming, Keewee Cricketing Legend, had a really interesting yarn
about getting New Zealand sheep meat into India and how
beneficial an FTA would be with the worlds soon to
be third largest economy and the world's fastest growing economy.
(01:24):
Stephen Fleming to kick off the best of the country,
Prime Minister Christopher lux and kicks off the country On
a Wednesday, we previewed the ocr announcements and asked whether
even strong economic growth can get the government's finances back
on track. We also talked about Winston kicking Trevor Mallard
(01:45):
to touch go Winston, Nicholas Powell play and Dad Dancing
with Chippy. Two part interview with Michael every Another favorite
here on the Country, Rabobanks Global based Strategist Singapore Global
Strategists get it Right. We talked in part one of
the interview about Trump the Peacemaker, and then part two
(02:08):
we talked about Trump the disruptor and asked how a
trading nation like New Zealand caninsulate itself against his tariffs.
And just to lighten things up for you, because we can.
Graham Williams, East Coast farmer bush poet who put pen
to paper as he lamented the loss of food producing
land to carbon farming. It's all on the best of
the country and it's brought to you by Rabobank and
(02:31):
the begs.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
The best of the Country with Rabobank choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
It is a small world. A friend of a friend
of a friend had dinner with this bloke in Vietnam,
I think, and said he was a bit of a
listener to the country. Well known key Week cricketer legend
in facts, Steven Fleming and Steven Can I call you
Canterbury Farmer as well?
Speaker 4 (03:05):
No, no, that would be far to lose. But thank
you Jamie. It nice to talk to you.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Well. You have got a vested interest in agriculture. You're
involved with, amongst others, Brenda McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Jeff Eller,
who I've spoken to before on this show. Sir Richard Hadley,
you guys are trying to get New Zealand sheep meats
into India and like the rest of us, you're waiting
with baited breath for an FTA.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
What chance, Well, I think more chance than before. I
think this government, Tom McLay has done a good job.
They've been over to India a number of times and
one of the key things with India is creating relationships
and they have to be bone deep rather than skin
deep in creating those, and I think they're making some
pretty good progress. There's some great synergy between the two
(03:52):
countries that go way back. Surven Hillary is held in
such high esteem and Sir Richard Hadley. So look, getting
that the products into India is a bit of a challenge,
but once though they're selling them with the New Zealand
name is quite easy.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So currently we've got something I think, correct me if
I'm wrong, a thirty percent tariff on sheep meat the
Aussies get. There's an without one. That's a huge stumbling
block for us.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, it is. And if you look at the history
of our company, we've been operating in India for twelve
years and in twenty twenty three we had eighty six
percent of land meat into India was ours, so that's
a really dominant position and that was growing as well
as the hotels. The five star hotels were growing throughout India.
Twelve months later we're down to sixty eight so it's
(04:35):
saw a really strong position. But the drop has been
because the Australian market is now operating with a thirty
three percent left and less tariff going into the country,
and that's a hard one to compete with. We have
a great relationship with Alliance and they've had some tough times,
but they've been a great partner. They've bought into the
vision of what India could become. But it's just become
(04:57):
very hard to compete with that type of that type
tariff and discount that we're having to put in to
stay competitive. We're still in there, but it's creating some challenges.
So we're hopeful of something some news, some FDA news
coming soon.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Your company is Quality d Z. As you mentioned, you've
got a star studded stable of cricketers in there. You've
also got I think some all blacks who are silent partners.
But when it comes to pulling power in India, the
all blacks wouldn't have much compared to the like see yourself,
Brendan McCullum, Daniel Vittori.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
No, we've got them on this one. There's no doubt
that in there we will dominate. But having all blacks
as shareholders, you don't want to mess around with them,
so you've got to make sure we get a return
for them. Otherwise they've got a bit more muscle than
US cricketers, So that could being an interesting board discussion
or a shareholder's conference. If we don't do the business.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
India will become the third biggest economy in the world,
obviously behind the US and China in five years by
twenty thirty. These are the numbers I've got Stephen from Wikipedia.
They can't possibly be right. One hundred and forty million
middle class households, twenty one million high income households. The
potential is almost limitless if we can get our stuff
(06:11):
in there at a fair rate.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
Yes, it's actually scary. And the other one is the
fastest growing major economy, so they are six to seven
percent growth, which is phenomenal, and it's very self sufficient.
If you look at almost their population, they have sixty
percent of the population under thirty five, so very young.
And the education system is worth noting because it's so
(06:35):
strong through India that they've now got this real drive,
some of it Western is education coming back and with
a huge workforce, the country's just flying. So I know
there are companies New Zealand companies just waiting for the
STA and what we want to do with our supply chain,
which we control, is to become that gateway to India,
because when you look at those numbers, it's just mouthwatering.
(06:59):
What some of our that's could do.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
What initially stirred your interest about getting New Zealand sheep
meat into India because I know when you finished with
the Black Caps you went to the IPL without being
unkind Steven, you've probably made more money in your life
than you can spend. You don't necessarily need to do this.
What was the motivation?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Well, the rupee is not what it used to be,
Jamie Say's still a bit of work to be done,
but I appreciate the point. I think it's actually the
relationship with India and Jiffeller and a friend of ours,
Jiff then we're a big driver of that. They saw
an opportunity, but we actually weren't sure what it was
going to be. So it was twelve months of due
diligence where it was water, where there was other products.
(07:40):
But lamb meat came through. Sheep meat came through loud
and clear, and so we just formed some relationships and
gave it a crack and the growth rate was fantastic.
We had to plant a friend then in Bangalore in
market to do some work, and we just started creating
relationships and I think that's what the IPL has done.
When you tour in India, its for weeks or a
(08:03):
month a couple of months of the time with the IPL,
year upon year, you get to know people, get to
form relationships, and you start understanding the country. And once
you start understanding it, it's the biggest thing speaking country
in the world, which people don't realize. So it's a
lot easier to make those connections and form those relationships
both personal and business, and you just start to realize
(08:24):
that with New Zealand's good name and the scope and
the energy of India, and as Prime Minister mode, he said,
turning the red tape into red carpet, it was just
too good to refuse or not to look at. So
it hasn't been easy. There's been a huge amount of work,
I reckon. I've met over two three hundred shifts during
the during my time in the IPL, so the old
(08:45):
time on the running machine had to go up because
they just love it. They love our produce and they
love anything with New Zealand on it. So it's a
really nice but it's a good cynergy. It's a great
way for former sportsmen like myself and Brandon to learn
other speaks around business and also create a good story
for New Zealand, which is I guess part of the
ego of wanting to do well in business.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
You have got a life sentence block or a lifestyle
block outside of christ Church. Do you have a farming
or rural background.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
No, I don't, and I still don't. It's trial and error,
but it's great fun. It's a teen acre of cannibary
lifestyle block. And I think at the moment three sheep,
five chickens, a couple of dogs and three kids, so
that's enough for me. In fact, that's too much for me.
Really need some outside help on that one. But good fun,
very good fun, and again good to learn some new
(09:35):
skills outside holding a cricket back.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
Well, Stephen Fleming, I'm guessing if you've got ten acres
and only three sheep, you spend a bit of time
on the right on moa, do you.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Well as we as listening to you, Jamie, you got
me through a couple of acres those lones time shows,
so no, it's been enjoyable. I think it's around on
the sunny day, it's about two coronas, so that's a
good way to measure it.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Just on a lighter note to finish, Stephen Fleming, I
hear from my friend of a friend of a friend.
But you are second only to the Briscoes lady, I
think a fellow Cantabrium as the longest standing brand ambassador.
Of course, she's been the Briscoes Lady forever. You have
celebrated twenty five years as the Fijitsu head pumps brand ambassador.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
That's true, Jamie, That's that's true, and actually very proud
of it. But yeah, that one of the goals that
we seem was to try and catch Tammy who Temmy.
She does a great job, but she seems to be
getting younger. She's the Benjamin Button of advertising. She's getting
younger every advert where I'm going the other way, So
I'm not sure I'm going to tick that goal off.
But no, it's been a great, great association and.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
Finish on international cricket. How good is kin Williamson?
Speaker 4 (10:45):
Well, well, I'm pausing because I about to say he's
one of the best, if not the best, And wow,
it's rarefied here and grady to have for you you
under speaking like that, But I know him well and
I just love him. I think he is a magnificent person.
But he has just been so good for so long
and what news on cricket needs is excellent. Sir Richard
(11:09):
Hadley was our greatest player, but now in the last
of five six seventeen years, we've produced some of the
best and he is right up there. I've heard discussions
about him being better than Sir Richard. You don't deserve
to have that chat. It's just great to have these
young guys and Williamson leading a new era of outstanding players.
(11:29):
So I'm really proud of them. I think on Creeker
is in great shape and they've certainly taken the game
forward since my time and creating a new level of
success which is to be celebrated by all.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
And I know you were a keen rugby player in
your youth. And saying Kin Williamson is better than Sir
Richard Hadley's a bit like saying Richie mccaur and Dan
Carter are greater than Colin Meads. You can't really say it, can.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
You, No, you can't. You got to celebrate them both,
and the fact we're even discussing it is brilliant. I
think it's Sir Richard was hands down the best player
we had during that era and came Williamson. Is that
for us? But we have people just behind and to
some of all parts, isn't it when you think about
the Bolts and the Southeast and the wagoners in that
era of bowling and some of the batting coming through now.
(12:12):
It's it's a pleasure to watch Stephen Fleming.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
It's been a pleasure to chat to you on the Country.
Don't be a stranger. Good luck getting your lamb into
India when we finally cracked that FTA fingers crossed, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Good to talk to you, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
The best of the Country with Rubber Bank, the bank
with local acribanking experts, passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Rubber Bank Wednesdays on the Country, The PM kicks off
the show. It's official cash rate announcement to day. And
I know Prime Minister Christopher Luxon you can't say anything
about this, but let me put some words into your mouth.
If acting, I think he's still acting. Reserve Bank Governor
Christian Hawkspeed drops it as we expect by twenty five
(12:56):
basis points, but then he indicates that's where he's going
to stop. That is surely trouble for the economy.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Look, I think when you look at a lot of
the economist reports, and you look at a lot of
even what the Reserve Bank said in their last meeting,
I get the sense that there's still downward momentum needed
on interest.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Rates as well.
Speaker 5 (13:16):
So let's see what he does today. As you quite
rightly identify, Jamie, I can't comment on it given the
independence of the Reserve Bank, but we certainly want to
see a downward track on interest rates. You know, we've
got inflation down. It's well within the band now of
the one to three percent. It will float around a
bit like you know, it could hit three percent in
the next quarter. But you know what the bank looks
(13:38):
at is what's called medium term inflation, and that's how
they base their assessment of interest rates. And so you know,
we're doing everything we can fiscally to get inflation down.
That durnes interest rates down. That gets the growth up
and running, and it gets people into work, and that's
the plan.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
It was an interesting column in the Herald yesterday that
said the economy is officially suffering from long COVID as
opposed to a COVID hangover, and the author Jan and
I've forgotten the name, for the second day in a
row said strong economic growth alone won't be enough to
get the government's finances back on track. And I know
you're going to disagree with this one as well. So
(14:13):
she was basically saying there's only two solutions, more spending
cuts or increased taxes.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Now I disagree. I mean, if you look at the
forecasts for the next four years, we're basically, you know,
there even today, the banks of economists are still predicting
that will grow the economy on average at two point
seven percent, just under three percent, and there's two hundred
and forty thousand jobs that will be crowded off the
back of that growth. What New Zealand really needs is growth.
I mean, this is the harsh reality. You may not
(14:41):
like it. I don't like it, but that's the inheritance
I got. You've got the biggest recession back since the
early nineties. You ended up with a COVID hangover because
of that sixty six billion dollar that was spent that
we didn't get anything four and that is, as a
Treasury said last week's you know, ended up driving making
the cost living worse and actually really upsetting fiscal track
and our financial financial track for decades ahead. You know,
(15:05):
that's the reality of what we're trying to work our
way through. You know, we had good growth if you
remember at the end of last year. We had really
good growth in the first quarter of this year, and
then we hit Liberation Day in April with mister Trump.
And as a result, it's not that our bilateral trade
is smacked around as much. It's actually the fact that
there's a loss of confidence and sentiments, you know, because
in business people don't want to invest. That doesn't drive
growth and that's happening all around the world at the moment,
(15:27):
not just here in the right. So that's all we
got to work out way.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
And good political news this week Winston has kicked Trevor
Mallard to touch not before time. Why didn't you do
it earlier?
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Well, those are decisions that the Minister Foreign Affairs makes
about ambassadorial appointments across the across the world. I think
Winston's had a pretty principled line, which is that actually
politicians have formed politicians versus career diplomats. We're better off
with career diplomats in general, and so I think that's
been a strong, a strong principle of his. But look,
I mean those are questions you have to treat to him.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Mello is the least diplomatic man in the world.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
I hear you, brother, But though the calls for the
ministerta making, I fully trust on them to make the
right call. So I'll leave it.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
You're happy to be the MPCE of Towrong or on
that one? A couple of the lighthearted ones or are
they lighthearted? To finish on Nikola making the power play
for your job, and of course the dad dancing with hippocines.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
What were you thinking, mate, when you got a thousand
people in a room and the presenter calls you up
on stage? Is not much hiding? Nowhere to hide? So
I thought, well, bi partisanship doesn't break out much, and
there's not much I agree with chriscept comes on, specially
how to run an economy. But if we're both going
down with Miles, will go down together. So I thought, and.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
You did, and you did. What about Nicholas power play?
Was that just a Freudian slip and accident in time?
Speaker 5 (16:53):
No, that was just really unfair. I think the only
the media beat up, you know, basically Harritt started yesterday
was that she came and you know, we have to
go to a caucus run and all the press gallery
down here in Wellington you just grab us as we're
going through what's called the tiles part of Parliament and
whoever gets their first you know, it's in front of
the microphones and sery. So I don't know, but I
don't know how it happened. I actually haven't followed the
story to be honest too much. You know, we're pretty
(17:14):
focused on what we've got to do, which is Sixtus economy.
That's what we're focused on.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Well, the Reserve Bank could go a long way today
by dropping it this afternoon, which they will, and then
dropping it another couple of times. Those are my words,
not yours. Prime Minister. Thanks as always for your time.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Great to be with you, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Have a great week mate.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
The Best of the Country with Rubbo Back. Choose the
bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience.
Grow with Rubbo Back.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
I'm going back Massitus Gaday, New Zealand. Welcome back to
the Best of the Country. I'm Jamie McKay. The show
I was brought to you by a Rabobank. We're growing
a better New Zealand together and the Beg's today just
because I can. Hey up next, We've got a really
(18:09):
good in my opinion. Anyhow, I'm probably the wrong person
to judge this two part interview with Michael every He's
rabobanks Singapore based global strategist. In part one, we looked
at Trump the peacemaker and whether a truce in Russia
and the Middle East will result in a bit of
a sugar rush for the world economy. In part two,
we looked at Trump the disruptor and asked how a
(18:32):
trading nation like New Zealand coninsulate itself against his tariffs.
Graham Williams, East Coast Farmer and bush poet raps the
best of the country. He put pen to paper as
he lamented the loss of food producing land to carbon farming.
As a poem is called carbon cuddlers. You're gonna love it,
right just talking about Rabobank. Interstrates are going down, which
(18:54):
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(19:16):
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(19:39):
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the website rabobank dot co dot Nz. Michael Every up next.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
The best of the country with rabobank. Choose the bank
with a qu each network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Rabobank of chatting to this bloke on the country. His
name is Michael Every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. Michael.
Let's get into it as we record this interview. Is
Trump on the verge of an historic peace agreement between
Russia and Ukraine? Or is putin playing them like a
(20:22):
fiddle a lah Neville Chamberlain's peace in our time? After
meeting with Hitler, what do you reckon?
Speaker 6 (20:29):
Well, obviously everything is in flux, so you can't one
hundred percent say one or the other. But it does
appear to be much more the former than the latter.
But with terms and conditions, we have to see who's
going to be doing what and what Trump is effectively
going to do here is say, look, we're going to
(20:52):
provide a logistical backdrop to support what Europe is now
going to pay for. Europe is going to deliver on
the ground. So if Europe, which loves to talk big
about how the world should be and how everyone should
do everything, if they are capable now of actually saying yes,
we will put our own boys and girls on the ground,
(21:14):
boots on the ground, we will rearm with with weapons
we buy from America, which has been part of the
Trump's plan all along, and with that we will guarantee
the eighty percent of Ukraine that's left. Provided that Kiv
signs up to this deal, then we at least have
stability for a while, even if in no way do
(21:36):
we actually have friendship and peace between between Russia and Ukraine,
it will be better than what we have now. Certainly,
if everyone signs up to what needs to be done.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Yeah, but basically Ukraine is going to have to swallow
a dead ride.
Speaker 6 (21:51):
Well, Ukraine, it would appear, and quite logically, very sadly,
by the way, I don't say there was any happens whatsoever,
is going to have to accept that what Russia has taken,
it is incapable of forcing it to give back. And
for those you know listening who might think, well, you know,
first of all, the US or you know, Europe or
Europe's got nothing to bring.
Speaker 4 (22:11):
To the table militarily at the moment.
Speaker 6 (22:12):
But the US should be flooding Ukraine with arms to
try and push back, you'd have to end up putting
boots on the ground. And Russia is much closer to Ukraine,
and it has what we call escalatory dominance. Russia will
always be prepared to say, well, we're going to go
further and harder than you, because this matters to us
more than it does to you. And America is simply
not going to do that. So then your only other
(22:33):
alternative is from America and Europe together to say we
will sanction the hell out of everybody who does business
with Russia to break their economy. They could have done
that from day one. From day one, they could have
done that, but you know who that means sanctioning just
about everyone, including some European countries who buy Russian energy.
By the way, no one's prepared to actually do that.
So if they're not going to put up, and they're not,
(22:55):
this is probably the most realistic, best option that's left
on the table. But yes, Ukraine will regrettably because this
wasn't done years ago and it should have been, and
by Europe, Ukraine will probably have to see twenty percent
of its land if we.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Can get pace or even a meaningful ceasefire and both
Russia and the Middle East. What effect does that have
on the world economy? Are we going to have a
bit of a sugar rush as a result.
Speaker 6 (23:24):
I wouldn't say sugar, I'd say a gunpowder rush, because
everyone will continue arming, particularly in Europe on the Ukraine side,
the European side, and on the Russian side, to ensure
they're in the best position if one or the other
stumbles or just decides that they can't keep up the pace.
So we will definitely see an economic boom from things
(23:48):
that go boom. But of course you have to trade
off between guns and butter unless you want inflation to
go through the roof, and that's going to mean some
real wrenching changes that people in Europe, in particularly just
frankly aren't prepared for.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
You.
Speaker 6 (24:01):
I think it will have to happen, but it's going
to be quite the political, economic and psychological shock for
them when they see the coming. And in the Middle East, well, look,
it's always always on a nice edge there. I think
certain areas can certainly see positive change relative to where
we are now. I mean, it wouldn't be hard, given
how bad things are there, but it will still be
(24:21):
alongside what's happening in Europe, part of a global reset,
which is still at the end of the day, coming
down to the US versus China, and so I don't
think there's any war looming on that front, to be
abundantly clear, but any economic boom that we get is
going to be constrained by the fact that you're likely
to see people saying whose side are you on as
(24:42):
we start drawing lines on the map, and we're already
seeing a lot of that this year.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
As you know, Michael every with us he is Rabobanks
Singapore based global strategists. We're going to take a break,
and part two of this interview we're going to continue
the Trump same We're going to talk about as tariffs
and how New Zealand as a trading nation can insulate
themselves against them.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
The best of the country with Rubbobank the bank with
local agri banking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
Rubbo Bank the Country continues with Michael every Singapore based
global strategists for Rubobank. We've talked about Donald Trump the peacemaker.
What about Donald Trump the disruptor with his tariffs? Michael Every,
How does a country like New Zealand insulate itself as
best it can against the Trump tariffs when, for instance,
(25:33):
our friends across the Tasman Australia have got a lower
terror fright than us.
Speaker 6 (25:38):
Yes, well that doesn't help, does it. I mean five
percent isn't a game changing. It's just necessarily. Although margins
are tight in some areas of industry and you need
to watch them carefully, you have to accept that the
tariffs and that disruption come alongside the peace deals. They
are all part of the same package. And I have
been saying that, you know in earlier chats we've had,
(26:00):
and that the best thing to do is to try
and get on the phone to the White House with
Australia would have been even better to strengthen your arm
and to actually just say, look, we understand what you're
trying to do in terms of reordering the international system.
We're not going to fight you. We want to work
with you.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Now.
Speaker 6 (26:14):
To an extent, you could say you've not got the
worst of deals. You know, your tariff isn't wonderful, but
it's not as high as some others have got. Look
at poor old Switzerland or India for example at the moment,
or Brazil. But you have to just recognize that. In
the same way that the US has been able to
maybe achieve some kind of piece of sorts in Ukraine
(26:34):
by literally telling Europe you are going to rearm and
enforce this, we're not, you know, We're only going to
be there in the background. By sheer, you know, will
and power, they've been able to do that. The US
is going to dictate to everyone how global trade works
going forward. So either you don't deal with the US
at all, and good luck to you on that, because
no one's already had a lot of luck finding anyone
else as a market to replace everything they buy. You know,
(26:58):
or you are you are? You sell more pure domestically,
and again good luck with.
Speaker 4 (27:01):
That for everybody.
Speaker 6 (27:02):
Or you listen to what they want and you try
and work with them as much as possible.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
You mentioned India. We're trying at the moment to get
a free trade agreement with India and get competitive with
their Australian cousins across the Tasman How much potential does
India present for a country like New Zealand. They're going
to be the world's third biggest economy by twenty thirty.
They are currently the world's fastest growing economy. Surely we
(27:29):
need some eggs in the Indian basket.
Speaker 6 (27:32):
Well yeah, And unfortunately, again, the time to have been
doing this would have.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
Been years ago when I was telling people that's exactly.
Speaker 6 (27:37):
What should have been done. But everyone in New Zealand
and elsewhere was keeping all their eggs in another basket
which I won't name, And right now at the moment
that's still on paper. Makes a lot of sense, except
for the fact that we're on a nine edge because geopolitically,
the US and India are really not in a good
place whatsoever. In fact, the headline this morning is I'm
speaking to you, is that India is saying we want
(27:58):
to do everything we can to kiss up to China again. Now,
I don't know how sustainable that will be. I don't
know if they really mean it or if it's just,
you know, a play to try and get America's attention again.
But we're India to go that route at a time
when I am stressing the world is going to be
starting to buifurcate into whose side are you on kind
of deals? And New Zealand says, well, we want to
be in that camp. Well, you're not going to get
(28:20):
on well with America and there are going to be
consequences for that. So I'm not saying that will happen.
I'm just saying that, yeah, ten years ago would have
been a much better time to be doing what you
just floated.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
Hindsight, it's a wonderful thing. Look, we're enjoying record commodity
prices for the likes of dairy, kiw fruit, red meat
at the moment. Can we stay at these elevated levels.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Well, I don't want to talk specific to any of
those sectors, as I'm sure everyone knows rend our bank
has got experts in all of them, and that doesn't
include me. But what I can certainly say is that
the underlying inflation and that's what it is, because when
prices go up, that's called inflation. When we're the seller,
we don't consider it inflation. We consider it to be
something good. When we're the buyer's inflation. But that's the way,
(29:02):
that's the way statistics work. We don't see any clear
sign that that's completely sorted out on every front. And
you've just alluded to that in terms of what you know,
what grows and produces in New Zealand are seeing. And
yet we are seeing central banks from your own in
New Zealand to the to the Federal Reserve up in
the US talking, you know, or being pushed bit by
(29:25):
bit into cutting interest rates. And so what do you
think that's going to mean?
Speaker 3 (29:29):
Can I ask you about a dirty word and economics, stagflation.
Speaker 6 (29:35):
Stagflation, Yes, well, that's something that lots of people pooh
pooed years ago and said you can't have it, and
it's exactly what we do have to a certain extent.
In the structurally, our economies are not performing anywhere near
as well as they used to with one or two
exceptions or one or two sectors. You know, you could say,
you know, breaking it down a bit, and yet we
(29:56):
do have a far stickier level of inflamation. It's certainly
in pockets like services than anyone presumed we were going
to have pre COVID. I mean, you can have a
really limping along, you know, we're doing it hard kind
of economy which many people are experiencing, and you still
get really sticky up with movement in prices where it
just doesn't come down again. That is stagflation light. I
(30:20):
think that would be the easiest way to describe it.
And of course it doesn't feel so lightly. You haven't
got much money in your pocket.
Speaker 7 (30:25):
But what do you do?
Speaker 6 (30:26):
What do you do about that? And I can tell you,
having spoken to the great and the good around the world,
if they haven't got a clue.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist, Thanks as always
for your time. Really appreciative. I'll catch you back hopefully
in the next month or two. Come rain, hail, snow
or Donald Trump getting a Nobel Peace prize.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
So Ya, by bye, The best of the Country with
ROBOBK choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years
global agribusiness experience grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Haven't caught up with this bloke for a while, and
I'm really looking forward to enjoying his company, if such
a thing as possible, at the Gisbon or the Poverty
Bay amp show in October. Looking forward to getting there,
albeit seven or eight years late. That's another story for
another day. Graham Williams, you're an East Coast farmer and
bush poet and you've written the poem about carbon cuddlers.
(31:17):
I guess the net effect of this poem is that
you're just lamenting that we're losing food producing land to
carbon forestry.
Speaker 7 (31:26):
Yeah, well that's right, Jamie. You know that it's been
a grive of mine for a long time, as you
well know. And I think it's really coming to the fore.
And I think I think what really epitomized it. I
was listening to your show the other day, and you
know that that American lady was the goat farming down
at Oxford there, and that was on country Calendar, and
there was a lot of people saying, oh, well, you
(31:47):
know that's that's sort of not what country calendar should be.
But I looked at it completely differently. And what I
saw in that little operation there, to me, epitomized everything
that's fantastic about you know, the great place of New
Zealand and the food we're producing, because you know, she
had tremendous passion, as all farmers do. She had a
(32:08):
huge commitment to producing healthy food, to animal welfare, you know,
that was her highest priority. I mean, those goats, they
were bloody, happy animals and fantastic. And the other thing
that really struck home to me was, you know, she
said she looks after those goats twenty four to seven,
three hundred and sixty five days a year. Now, every
(32:28):
New Zealand farmer that's got livestock looks after those animals,
you know, twenty four to seven. And I think I
think a lot of people have to really realize, you know,
that in this country we produce happy food. And I
call it happy food because that Oxford lady epitomized that
and obviously it was good tucker and people were wanting
to buy it. And the other question that crops up, Jamie,
(32:51):
I think you said on your show the other day
that sixty percent of our pork in New Zealand comes
from overseas, and you've done a hell of a lot
more traveling and I had, Jamie. But you know when
you go overseas and you look at some of the
conditions these intensive farming operations have, and I'll tell you what.
None of those qualities that were exhibited in that country
(33:12):
calendar at Oxford the other night, I know for a
fact are not happening overseas, and that's where our tuck
is coming from. And it's going to get worse and
worse if we put more land, good land into trees.
So that's a guts of where I'm at, Jamie, and
I've sort of summed it up in a bit of
a poem for you. All right, Well shut So my
poem's called carbon Cudlass. Well I'm not a financial guru,
(33:35):
but the word that's on the street is that the
country's in a hell of a state because food. She's
far too expensive to eat. But it is spreadable gold
if in fact it can be found. Shoppers are doing
somersaults at ten bucks for a pound. Mince was poor
man's tucker once as the bank it wouldn't break, But
(33:59):
now she's theird dollars where once was fill at steak
lamb is up there too, and no one's happier than
me for hitting a person in the wallet is how
you make a blind man see. It's called supply and demand.
The concepts tried and true, and I don't think urbanites
(34:19):
grasp it as well as rural people do. Our livelihoods
depend on it, and right now there's a boost for
the khos in. The carbon forests are coming home to roost.
We won't say that we told you so, especially because
we did a perfect recipe for oblivion. Two point six
(34:41):
million stop units. We have slid save the world with
carbon forests. The wombles they did bleat this bugger all
point and breathing. If you can't afford to eat, if
people reckon prices are high, I predict they'll only climb.
And if people are searching for reasons, then I suggest
(35:02):
it now's the time to be fair. The horse has
bolted as the damage has been done, the leg ups
and incentives and the stories that were spun. Every pastoral
farmer that's sold to carbon trees is another nail in
our coffin from polluters over seas, limiting our food production.
(35:24):
Is far from sound advice. The lack of that production
hence the increase in the price. So a toast to
our remaining farmers is what I wish to do. The
best and most efficient in the world, a fact we
know is true. They deserve our total backing and our respect.
They do command. It's them that should reap the rewards
(35:48):
the reality of supply and demand. Don't blame them for
the cost of food. If the price it makes you choke,
blame it on the carbon cuddlers, the ideologists and the woke.
They're away with the bloody fairies, unaccountable and aloof they're
the buggest to lynch when your tucker bull hits the roof.
(36:10):
And that's my take on a Jamie, and I think
we all need to wake up to the fact that
we're the best producers of the best tucker in the
world and we need to preserve the production of it.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
So that's me, Graham Williams. Lovely work. Looking forward to
catching up with you at the Poverty A and P Show,
the best Little am P Show in the country mid October.
Speaker 7 (36:29):
Good on you, Jamie, we'll see you then.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
The Best of the Country with Rubbobank choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Rabobank, Graham Williams wrapping the Best of the Country. Good morning,
my name's Jamie McKay. I hope you enjoyed this week's offering.
We'll catch you back, same time, same place next Saturday morning.
Of course, the Best of the Country is the best
bits of our weekday show twelve to one, and it's
(36:59):
brought to you by Rabobank. That I mentioned that, Thank
you Rabobank. Really appreciate it. You're keeping me off the
streets right.
Speaker 8 (37:07):
That's me.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
I'm out of here. Great weekend of footy coming up,
not only the All Blacks and Buenos Aires, but of
course that second Wallaby's Spring Box test at Cape Town
Sea Level. Really looking forward to that one. I'm going
to leave you with early Beg's and I'll be back,
same time, same place, next Saturday morning.
Speaker 8 (37:26):
You while's lives live to love somebody, to love somebody.
We love you.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
It's my breath.
Speaker 8 (38:03):
I see your basicasion. I've known my friend Ma. You
ain't got to.
Speaker 4 (38:12):
Be so lad?
Speaker 7 (38:15):
Can I be man?
Speaker 4 (38:18):
So so? So?
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Have a man?
Speaker 8 (38:24):
Can't you see what I am? How can I.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
Read for you.
Speaker 8 (38:32):
But what good doesn't do with my God.
Speaker 6 (38:38):
Being God Man?
Speaker 2 (38:42):
You don't know.
Speaker 8 (38:43):
While it is life, you don't know. While it is
life to love somebody, to love somebody the way I
love you, I don't know why it's sad baby. You
(39:07):
don't know while it's last.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
To love somebody, to love somebody the way.
Speaker 8 (39:17):
I love you, turn down.
Speaker 7 (39:23):
You don't know.
Speaker 8 (39:24):
While it's sad, you don't know why it's life, nob
The best of the Country with Rubbobank. Choose the bank
with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience grow
with Rubbobank.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Where is the sun that show on the head then
it instead it is dead? Where is the lights that
would play in and where are the.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Can I m Good morning, New Zealand. My name is
Jamie McKay. This is the best of the Country brought
to you each and every Saturday morning here on News
Talk ZB by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
I've cheated a wee bit. This music was on my
button bar to use a radio terminology from Wednesday show,
so I carried on with my eg's theme because I
was too lazy to change it. Anyhow, great music, great band.
(01:03):
Got a great interview to kick off the Best of
the Country today. It is my favorite interview of the week.
Stephen Fleming, Keewee Cricketing Legend, had a really interesting yarn
about getting New Zealand sheep meat into India and how
beneficial an FTA would be with the worlds soon to
be third largest economy and the world's fastest growing economy.
(01:24):
Stephen Fleming to kick off the best of the country,
Prime Minister Christopher lux and kicks off the country On
a Wednesday, we previewed the ocr announcements and asked whether
even strong economic growth can get the government's finances back
on track. We also talked about Winston kicking Trevor Mallard
(01:45):
to touch go Winston, Nicholas Powell play and Dad Dancing
with Chippy. Two part interview with Michael every Another favorite
here on the Country, Rabobanks Global based Strategist Singapore Global
Strategists get it Right. We talked in part one of
the interview about Trump the Peacemaker, and then part two
(02:08):
we talked about Trump the disruptor and asked how a
trading nation like New Zealand caninsulate itself against his tariffs.
And just to lighten things up for you, because we can.
Graham Williams, East Coast farmer bush poet who put pen
to paper as he lamented the loss of food producing
land to carbon farming. It's all on the best of
the country and it's brought to you by Rabobank and
(02:31):
the begs.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
The best of the Country with Rabobank choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
It is a small world. A friend of a friend
of a friend had dinner with this bloke in Vietnam,
I think, and said he was a bit of a
listener to the country. Well known key Week cricketer legend
in facts, Steven Fleming and Steven Can I call you
Canterbury Farmer as well?
Speaker 4 (03:05):
No, no, that would be far to lose. But thank
you Jamie. It nice to talk to you.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Well. You have got a vested interest in agriculture. You're
involved with, amongst others, Brenda McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Jeff Eller,
who I've spoken to before on this show. Sir Richard Hadley,
you guys are trying to get New Zealand sheep meats
into India and like the rest of us, you're waiting
with baited breath for an FTA.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
What chance, Well, I think more chance than before. I
think this government, Tom McLay has done a good job.
They've been over to India a number of times and
one of the key things with India is creating relationships
and they have to be bone deep rather than skin
deep in creating those, and I think they're making some
pretty good progress. There's some great synergy between the two
(03:52):
countries that go way back. Surven Hillary is held in
such high esteem and Sir Richard Hadley. So look, getting
that the products into India is a bit of a challenge,
but once though they're selling them with the New Zealand
name is quite easy.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So currently we've got something I think, correct me if
I'm wrong, a thirty percent tariff on sheep meat the
Aussies get. There's an without one. That's a huge stumbling
block for us.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, it is. And if you look at the history
of our company, we've been operating in India for twelve
years and in twenty twenty three we had eighty six
percent of land meat into India was ours, so that's
a really dominant position and that was growing as well
as the hotels. The five star hotels were growing throughout India.
Twelve months later we're down to sixty eight so it's
(04:35):
saw a really strong position. But the drop has been
because the Australian market is now operating with a thirty
three percent left and less tariff going into the country,
and that's a hard one to compete with. We have
a great relationship with Alliance and they've had some tough times,
but they've been a great partner. They've bought into the
vision of what India could become. But it's just become
(04:57):
very hard to compete with that type of that type
tariff and discount that we're having to put in to
stay competitive. We're still in there, but it's creating some challenges.
So we're hopeful of something some news, some FDA news
coming soon.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Your company is Quality d Z. As you mentioned, you've
got a star studded stable of cricketers in there. You've
also got I think some all blacks who are silent partners.
But when it comes to pulling power in India, the
all blacks wouldn't have much compared to the like see yourself,
Brendan McCullum, Daniel Vittori.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
No, we've got them on this one. There's no doubt
that in there we will dominate. But having all blacks
as shareholders, you don't want to mess around with them,
so you've got to make sure we get a return
for them. Otherwise they've got a bit more muscle than
US cricketers, So that could being an interesting board discussion
or a shareholder's conference. If we don't do the business.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
India will become the third biggest economy in the world,
obviously behind the US and China in five years by
twenty thirty. These are the numbers I've got Stephen from Wikipedia.
They can't possibly be right. One hundred and forty million
middle class households, twenty one million high income households. The
potential is almost limitless if we can get our stuff
(06:11):
in there at a fair rate.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
Yes, it's actually scary. And the other one is the
fastest growing major economy, so they are six to seven
percent growth, which is phenomenal, and it's very self sufficient.
If you look at almost their population, they have sixty
percent of the population under thirty five, so very young.
And the education system is worth noting because it's so
(06:35):
strong through India that they've now got this real drive,
some of it Western is education coming back and with
a huge workforce, the country's just flying. So I know
there are companies New Zealand companies just waiting for the
STA and what we want to do with our supply chain,
which we control, is to become that gateway to India,
because when you look at those numbers, it's just mouthwatering.
(06:59):
What some of our that's could do.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
What initially stirred your interest about getting New Zealand sheep
meat into India because I know when you finished with
the Black Caps you went to the IPL without being
unkind Steven, you've probably made more money in your life
than you can spend. You don't necessarily need to do this.
What was the motivation?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Well, the rupee is not what it used to be,
Jamie Say's still a bit of work to be done,
but I appreciate the point. I think it's actually the
relationship with India and Jiffeller and a friend of ours,
Jiff then we're a big driver of that. They saw
an opportunity, but we actually weren't sure what it was
going to be. So it was twelve months of due
diligence where it was water, where there was other products.
(07:40):
But lamb meat came through. Sheep meat came through loud
and clear, and so we just formed some relationships and
gave it a crack and the growth rate was fantastic.
We had to plant a friend then in Bangalore in
market to do some work, and we just started creating
relationships and I think that's what the IPL has done.
When you tour in India, its for weeks or a
(08:03):
month a couple of months of the time with the IPL,
year upon year, you get to know people, get to
form relationships, and you start understanding the country. And once
you start understanding it, it's the biggest thing speaking country
in the world, which people don't realize. So it's a
lot easier to make those connections and form those relationships
both personal and business, and you just start to realize
(08:24):
that with New Zealand's good name and the scope and
the energy of India, and as Prime Minister mode, he said,
turning the red tape into red carpet, it was just
too good to refuse or not to look at. So
it hasn't been easy. There's been a huge amount of work,
I reckon. I've met over two three hundred shifts during
the during my time in the IPL, so the old
(08:45):
time on the running machine had to go up because
they just love it. They love our produce and they
love anything with New Zealand on it. So it's a
really nice but it's a good cynergy. It's a great
way for former sportsmen like myself and Brandon to learn
other speaks around business and also create a good story
for New Zealand, which is I guess part of the
ego of wanting to do well in business.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
You have got a life sentence block or a lifestyle
block outside of christ Church. Do you have a farming
or rural background.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
No, I don't, and I still don't. It's trial and error,
but it's great fun. It's a teen acre of cannibary
lifestyle block. And I think at the moment three sheep,
five chickens, a couple of dogs and three kids, so
that's enough for me. In fact, that's too much for me.
Really need some outside help on that one. But good fun,
very good fun, and again good to learn some new
(09:35):
skills outside holding a cricket back.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
Well, Stephen Fleming, I'm guessing if you've got ten acres
and only three sheep, you spend a bit of time
on the right on moa, do you.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Well as we as listening to you, Jamie, you got
me through a couple of acres those lones time shows,
so no, it's been enjoyable. I think it's around on
the sunny day, it's about two coronas, so that's a
good way to measure it.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Just on a lighter note to finish, Stephen Fleming, I
hear from my friend of a friend of a friend.
But you are second only to the Briscoes lady, I
think a fellow Cantabrium as the longest standing brand ambassador.
Of course, she's been the Briscoes Lady forever. You have
celebrated twenty five years as the Fijitsu head pumps brand ambassador.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
That's true, Jamie, That's that's true, and actually very proud
of it. But yeah, that one of the goals that
we seem was to try and catch Tammy who Temmy.
She does a great job, but she seems to be
getting younger. She's the Benjamin Button of advertising. She's getting
younger every advert where I'm going the other way, So
I'm not sure I'm going to tick that goal off.
But no, it's been a great, great association and.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
Finish on international cricket. How good is kin Williamson?
Speaker 4 (10:45):
Well, well, I'm pausing because I about to say he's
one of the best, if not the best, And wow,
it's rarefied here and grady to have for you you
under speaking like that, But I know him well and
I just love him. I think he is a magnificent person.
But he has just been so good for so long
and what news on cricket needs is excellent. Sir Richard
(11:09):
Hadley was our greatest player, but now in the last
of five six seventeen years, we've produced some of the
best and he is right up there. I've heard discussions
about him being better than Sir Richard. You don't deserve
to have that chat. It's just great to have these
young guys and Williamson leading a new era of outstanding players.
(11:29):
So I'm really proud of them. I think on Creeker
is in great shape and they've certainly taken the game
forward since my time and creating a new level of
success which is to be celebrated by all.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
And I know you were a keen rugby player in
your youth. And saying Kin Williamson is better than Sir
Richard Hadley's a bit like saying Richie mccaur and Dan
Carter are greater than Colin Meads. You can't really say it, can.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
You, No, you can't. You got to celebrate them both,
and the fact we're even discussing it is brilliant. I
think it's Sir Richard was hands down the best player
we had during that era and came Williamson. Is that
for us? But we have people just behind and to
some of all parts, isn't it when you think about
the Bolts and the Southeast and the wagoners in that
era of bowling and some of the batting coming through now.
(12:12):
It's it's a pleasure to watch Stephen Fleming.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
It's been a pleasure to chat to you on the Country.
Don't be a stranger. Good luck getting your lamb into
India when we finally cracked that FTA fingers crossed, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Good to talk to you, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
The best of the Country with Rubber Bank, the bank
with local acribanking experts, passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Rubber Bank Wednesdays on the Country, The PM kicks off
the show. It's official cash rate announcement to day. And
I know Prime Minister Christopher Luxon you can't say anything
about this, but let me put some words into your mouth.
If acting, I think he's still acting. Reserve Bank Governor
Christian Hawkspeed drops it as we expect by twenty five
(12:56):
basis points, but then he indicates that's where he's going
to stop. That is surely trouble for the economy.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Look, I think when you look at a lot of
the economist reports, and you look at a lot of
even what the Reserve Bank said in their last meeting,
I get the sense that there's still downward momentum needed
on interest.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Rates as well.
Speaker 5 (13:16):
So let's see what he does today. As you quite
rightly identify, Jamie, I can't comment on it given the
independence of the Reserve Bank, but we certainly want to
see a downward track on interest rates. You know, we've
got inflation down. It's well within the band now of
the one to three percent. It will float around a
bit like you know, it could hit three percent in
the next quarter. But you know what the bank looks
(13:38):
at is what's called medium term inflation, and that's how
they base their assessment of interest rates. And so you know,
we're doing everything we can fiscally to get inflation down.
That durnes interest rates down. That gets the growth up
and running, and it gets people into work, and that's
the plan.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
It was an interesting column in the Herald yesterday that
said the economy is officially suffering from long COVID as
opposed to a COVID hangover, and the author Jan and
I've forgotten the name, for the second day in a
row said strong economic growth alone won't be enough to
get the government's finances back on track. And I know
you're going to disagree with this one as well. So
(14:13):
she was basically saying there's only two solutions, more spending
cuts or increased taxes.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Now I disagree. I mean, if you look at the
forecasts for the next four years, we're basically, you know,
there even today, the banks of economists are still predicting
that will grow the economy on average at two point
seven percent, just under three percent, and there's two hundred
and forty thousand jobs that will be crowded off the
back of that growth. What New Zealand really needs is growth.
I mean, this is the harsh reality. You may not
(14:41):
like it. I don't like it, but that's the inheritance
I got. You've got the biggest recession back since the
early nineties. You ended up with a COVID hangover because
of that sixty six billion dollar that was spent that
we didn't get anything four and that is, as a
Treasury said last week's you know, ended up driving making
the cost living worse and actually really upsetting fiscal track
and our financial financial track for decades ahead. You know,
(15:05):
that's the reality of what we're trying to work our
way through. You know, we had good growth if you
remember at the end of last year. We had really
good growth in the first quarter of this year, and
then we hit Liberation Day in April with mister Trump.
And as a result, it's not that our bilateral trade
is smacked around as much. It's actually the fact that
there's a loss of confidence and sentiments, you know, because
in business people don't want to invest. That doesn't drive
growth and that's happening all around the world at the moment,
(15:27):
not just here in the right. So that's all we
got to work out way.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
And good political news this week Winston has kicked Trevor
Mallard to touch not before time. Why didn't you do
it earlier?
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Well, those are decisions that the Minister Foreign Affairs makes
about ambassadorial appointments across the across the world. I think
Winston's had a pretty principled line, which is that actually
politicians have formed politicians versus career diplomats. We're better off
with career diplomats in general, and so I think that's
been a strong, a strong principle of his. But look,
I mean those are questions you have to treat to him.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Mello is the least diplomatic man in the world.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
I hear you, brother, But though the calls for the
ministerta making, I fully trust on them to make the
right call. So I'll leave it.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
You're happy to be the MPCE of Towrong or on
that one? A couple of the lighthearted ones or are
they lighthearted? To finish on Nikola making the power play
for your job, and of course the dad dancing with hippocines.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
What were you thinking, mate, when you got a thousand
people in a room and the presenter calls you up
on stage? Is not much hiding? Nowhere to hide? So
I thought, well, bi partisanship doesn't break out much, and
there's not much I agree with chriscept comes on, specially
how to run an economy. But if we're both going
down with Miles, will go down together. So I thought, and.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
You did, and you did. What about Nicholas power play?
Was that just a Freudian slip and accident in time?
Speaker 5 (16:53):
No, that was just really unfair. I think the only
the media beat up, you know, basically Harritt started yesterday
was that she came and you know, we have to
go to a caucus run and all the press gallery
down here in Wellington you just grab us as we're
going through what's called the tiles part of Parliament and
whoever gets their first you know, it's in front of
the microphones and sery. So I don't know, but I
don't know how it happened. I actually haven't followed the
story to be honest too much. You know, we're pretty
(17:14):
focused on what we've got to do, which is Sixtus economy.
That's what we're focused on.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Well, the Reserve Bank could go a long way today
by dropping it this afternoon, which they will, and then
dropping it another couple of times. Those are my words,
not yours. Prime Minister. Thanks as always for your time.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Great to be with you, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Have a great week mate.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
The Best of the Country with Rubbo Back. Choose the
bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience.
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Speaker 3 (17:49):
I'm going back Massitus Gaday, New Zealand. Welcome back to
the Best of the Country. I'm Jamie McKay. The show
I was brought to you by a Rabobank. We're growing
a better New Zealand together and the Beg's today just
because I can. Hey up next, We've got a really
(18:09):
good in my opinion. Anyhow, I'm probably the wrong person
to judge this two part interview with Michael every He's
rabobanks Singapore based global strategist. In part one, we looked
at Trump the peacemaker and whether a truce in Russia
and the Middle East will result in a bit of
a sugar rush for the world economy. In part two,
we looked at Trump the disruptor and asked how a
(18:32):
trading nation like New Zealand coninsulate itself against his tariffs.
Graham Williams, East Coast Farmer and bush poet raps the
best of the country. He put pen to paper as
he lamented the loss of food producing land to carbon farming.
As a poem is called carbon cuddlers. You're gonna love it,
right just talking about Rabobank. Interstrates are going down, which
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(19:16):
sharp rates at rabobank dot co dot Nz. And if
that's not enough, they're putting on free succession planning workshops.
If you'd like to better understand the process of passing
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(19:39):
giving you the confidence to start and progress your farm's
succession plan once again. To find out more, you know
the website rabobank dot co dot Nz. Michael Every up next.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
The best of the country with rabobank. Choose the bank
with a qu each network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Rabobank of chatting to this bloke on the country. His
name is Michael Every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. Michael.
Let's get into it as we record this interview. Is
Trump on the verge of an historic peace agreement between
Russia and Ukraine? Or is putin playing them like a
(20:22):
fiddle a lah Neville Chamberlain's peace in our time? After
meeting with Hitler, what do you reckon?
Speaker 6 (20:29):
Well, obviously everything is in flux, so you can't one
hundred percent say one or the other. But it does
appear to be much more the former than the latter.
But with terms and conditions, we have to see who's
going to be doing what and what Trump is effectively
going to do here is say, look, we're going to
(20:52):
provide a logistical backdrop to support what Europe is now
going to pay for. Europe is going to deliver on
the ground. So if Europe, which loves to talk big
about how the world should be and how everyone should
do everything, if they are capable now of actually saying yes,
we will put our own boys and girls on the ground,
(21:14):
boots on the ground, we will rearm with with weapons
we buy from America, which has been part of the
Trump's plan all along, and with that we will guarantee
the eighty percent of Ukraine that's left. Provided that Kiv
signs up to this deal, then we at least have
stability for a while, even if in no way do
(21:36):
we actually have friendship and peace between between Russia and Ukraine,
it will be better than what we have now. Certainly,
if everyone signs up to what needs to be done.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Yeah, but basically Ukraine is going to have to swallow
a dead ride.
Speaker 6 (21:51):
Well, Ukraine, it would appear, and quite logically, very sadly,
by the way, I don't say there was any happens whatsoever,
is going to have to accept that what Russia has taken,
it is incapable of forcing it to give back. And
for those you know listening who might think, well, you know,
first of all, the US or you know, Europe or
Europe's got nothing to bring.
Speaker 4 (22:11):
To the table militarily at the moment.
Speaker 6 (22:12):
But the US should be flooding Ukraine with arms to
try and push back, you'd have to end up putting
boots on the ground. And Russia is much closer to Ukraine,
and it has what we call escalatory dominance. Russia will
always be prepared to say, well, we're going to go
further and harder than you, because this matters to us
more than it does to you. And America is simply
not going to do that. So then your only other
(22:33):
alternative is from America and Europe together to say we
will sanction the hell out of everybody who does business
with Russia to break their economy. They could have done
that from day one. From day one, they could have
done that, but you know who that means sanctioning just
about everyone, including some European countries who buy Russian energy.
By the way, no one's prepared to actually do that.
So if they're not going to put up, and they're not,
(22:55):
this is probably the most realistic, best option that's left
on the table. But yes, Ukraine will regrettably because this
wasn't done years ago and it should have been, and
by Europe, Ukraine will probably have to see twenty percent
of its land if we.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Can get pace or even a meaningful ceasefire and both
Russia and the Middle East. What effect does that have
on the world economy? Are we going to have a
bit of a sugar rush as a result.
Speaker 6 (23:24):
I wouldn't say sugar, I'd say a gunpowder rush, because
everyone will continue arming, particularly in Europe on the Ukraine side,
the European side, and on the Russian side, to ensure
they're in the best position if one or the other
stumbles or just decides that they can't keep up the pace.
So we will definitely see an economic boom from things
(23:48):
that go boom. But of course you have to trade
off between guns and butter unless you want inflation to
go through the roof, and that's going to mean some
real wrenching changes that people in Europe, in particularly just
frankly aren't prepared for.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
You.
Speaker 6 (24:01):
I think it will have to happen, but it's going
to be quite the political, economic and psychological shock for
them when they see the coming. And in the Middle East, well, look,
it's always always on a nice edge there. I think
certain areas can certainly see positive change relative to where
we are now. I mean, it wouldn't be hard, given
how bad things are there, but it will still be
(24:21):
alongside what's happening in Europe, part of a global reset,
which is still at the end of the day, coming
down to the US versus China, and so I don't
think there's any war looming on that front, to be
abundantly clear, but any economic boom that we get is
going to be constrained by the fact that you're likely
to see people saying whose side are you on as
(24:42):
we start drawing lines on the map, and we're already
seeing a lot of that this year.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
As you know, Michael every with us he is Rabobanks
Singapore based global strategists. We're going to take a break,
and part two of this interview we're going to continue
the Trump same We're going to talk about as tariffs
and how New Zealand as a trading nation can insulate
themselves against them.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
The best of the country with Rubbobank the bank with
local agri banking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
Rubbo Bank the Country continues with Michael every Singapore based
global strategists for Rubobank. We've talked about Donald Trump the peacemaker.
What about Donald Trump the disruptor with his tariffs? Michael Every,
How does a country like New Zealand insulate itself as
best it can against the Trump tariffs when, for instance,
(25:33):
our friends across the Tasman Australia have got a lower
terror fright than us.
Speaker 6 (25:38):
Yes, well that doesn't help, does it. I mean five
percent isn't a game changing. It's just necessarily. Although margins
are tight in some areas of industry and you need
to watch them carefully, you have to accept that the
tariffs and that disruption come alongside the peace deals. They
are all part of the same package. And I have
been saying that, you know in earlier chats we've had,
(26:00):
and that the best thing to do is to try
and get on the phone to the White House with
Australia would have been even better to strengthen your arm
and to actually just say, look, we understand what you're
trying to do in terms of reordering the international system.
We're not going to fight you. We want to work
with you.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Now.
Speaker 6 (26:14):
To an extent, you could say you've not got the
worst of deals. You know, your tariff isn't wonderful, but
it's not as high as some others have got. Look
at poor old Switzerland or India for example at the moment,
or Brazil. But you have to just recognize that. In
the same way that the US has been able to
maybe achieve some kind of piece of sorts in Ukraine
(26:34):
by literally telling Europe you are going to rearm and
enforce this, we're not, you know, We're only going to
be there in the background. By sheer, you know, will
and power, they've been able to do that. The US
is going to dictate to everyone how global trade works
going forward. So either you don't deal with the US
at all, and good luck to you on that, because
no one's already had a lot of luck finding anyone
else as a market to replace everything they buy. You know,
(26:58):
or you are you are? You sell more pure domestically,
and again good luck with.
Speaker 4 (27:01):
That for everybody.
Speaker 6 (27:02):
Or you listen to what they want and you try
and work with them as much as possible.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
You mentioned India. We're trying at the moment to get
a free trade agreement with India and get competitive with
their Australian cousins across the Tasman How much potential does
India present for a country like New Zealand. They're going
to be the world's third biggest economy by twenty thirty.
They are currently the world's fastest growing economy. Surely we
(27:29):
need some eggs in the Indian basket.
Speaker 6 (27:32):
Well yeah, And unfortunately, again, the time to have been
doing this would have.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
Been years ago when I was telling people that's exactly.
Speaker 6 (27:37):
What should have been done. But everyone in New Zealand
and elsewhere was keeping all their eggs in another basket
which I won't name, And right now at the moment
that's still on paper. Makes a lot of sense, except
for the fact that we're on a nine edge because geopolitically,
the US and India are really not in a good
place whatsoever. In fact, the headline this morning is I'm
speaking to you, is that India is saying we want
(27:58):
to do everything we can to kiss up to China again. Now,
I don't know how sustainable that will be. I don't
know if they really mean it or if it's just,
you know, a play to try and get America's attention again.
But we're India to go that route at a time
when I am stressing the world is going to be
starting to buifurcate into whose side are you on kind
of deals? And New Zealand says, well, we want to
be in that camp. Well, you're not going to get
(28:20):
on well with America and there are going to be
consequences for that. So I'm not saying that will happen.
I'm just saying that, yeah, ten years ago would have
been a much better time to be doing what you
just floated.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
Hindsight, it's a wonderful thing. Look, we're enjoying record commodity
prices for the likes of dairy, kiw fruit, red meat
at the moment. Can we stay at these elevated levels.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Well, I don't want to talk specific to any of
those sectors, as I'm sure everyone knows rend our bank
has got experts in all of them, and that doesn't
include me. But what I can certainly say is that
the underlying inflation and that's what it is, because when
prices go up, that's called inflation. When we're the seller,
we don't consider it inflation. We consider it to be
something good. When we're the buyer's inflation. But that's the way,
(29:02):
that's the way statistics work. We don't see any clear
sign that that's completely sorted out on every front. And
you've just alluded to that in terms of what you know,
what grows and produces in New Zealand are seeing. And
yet we are seeing central banks from your own in
New Zealand to the to the Federal Reserve up in
the US talking, you know, or being pushed bit by
(29:25):
bit into cutting interest rates. And so what do you
think that's going to mean?
Speaker 3 (29:29):
Can I ask you about a dirty word and economics, stagflation.
Speaker 6 (29:35):
Stagflation, Yes, well, that's something that lots of people pooh
pooed years ago and said you can't have it, and
it's exactly what we do have to a certain extent.
In the structurally, our economies are not performing anywhere near
as well as they used to with one or two
exceptions or one or two sectors. You know, you could say,
you know, breaking it down a bit, and yet we
(29:56):
do have a far stickier level of inflamation. It's certainly
in pockets like services than anyone presumed we were going
to have pre COVID. I mean, you can have a
really limping along, you know, we're doing it hard kind
of economy which many people are experiencing, and you still
get really sticky up with movement in prices where it
just doesn't come down again. That is stagflation light. I
(30:20):
think that would be the easiest way to describe it.
And of course it doesn't feel so lightly. You haven't
got much money in your pocket.
Speaker 7 (30:25):
But what do you do?
Speaker 6 (30:26):
What do you do about that? And I can tell you,
having spoken to the great and the good around the world,
if they haven't got a clue.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist, Thanks as always
for your time. Really appreciative. I'll catch you back hopefully
in the next month or two. Come rain, hail, snow
or Donald Trump getting a Nobel Peace prize.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
So Ya, by bye, The best of the Country with
ROBOBK choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years
global agribusiness experience grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Haven't caught up with this bloke for a while, and
I'm really looking forward to enjoying his company, if such
a thing as possible, at the Gisbon or the Poverty
Bay amp show in October. Looking forward to getting there,
albeit seven or eight years late. That's another story for
another day. Graham Williams, you're an East Coast farmer and
bush poet and you've written the poem about carbon cuddlers.
(31:17):
I guess the net effect of this poem is that
you're just lamenting that we're losing food producing land to
carbon forestry.
Speaker 7 (31:26):
Yeah, well that's right, Jamie. You know that it's been
a grive of mine for a long time, as you
well know. And I think it's really coming to the fore.
And I think I think what really epitomized it. I
was listening to your show the other day, and you
know that that American lady was the goat farming down
at Oxford there, and that was on country Calendar, and
there was a lot of people saying, oh, well, you
(31:47):
know that's that's sort of not what country calendar should be.
But I looked at it completely differently. And what I
saw in that little operation there, to me, epitomized everything
that's fantastic about you know, the great place of New
Zealand and the food we're producing, because you know, she
had tremendous passion, as all farmers do. She had a
(32:08):
huge commitment to producing healthy food, to animal welfare, you know,
that was her highest priority. I mean, those goats, they
were bloody, happy animals and fantastic. And the other thing
that really struck home to me was, you know, she
said she looks after those goats twenty four to seven,
three hundred and sixty five days a year. Now, every
(32:28):
New Zealand farmer that's got livestock looks after those animals,
you know, twenty four to seven. And I think I
think a lot of people have to really realize, you know,
that in this country we produce happy food. And I
call it happy food because that Oxford lady epitomized that
and obviously it was good tucker and people were wanting
to buy it. And the other question that crops up, Jamie,
(32:51):
I think you said on your show the other day
that sixty percent of our pork in New Zealand comes
from overseas, and you've done a hell of a lot
more traveling and I had, Jamie. But you know when
you go overseas and you look at some of the
conditions these intensive farming operations have, and I'll tell you what.
None of those qualities that were exhibited in that country
(33:12):
calendar at Oxford the other night, I know for a
fact are not happening overseas, and that's where our tuck
is coming from. And it's going to get worse and
worse if we put more land, good land into trees.
So that's a guts of where I'm at, Jamie, and
I've sort of summed it up in a bit of
a poem for you. All right, Well shut So my
poem's called carbon Cudlass. Well I'm not a financial guru,
(33:35):
but the word that's on the street is that the
country's in a hell of a state because food. She's
far too expensive to eat. But it is spreadable gold
if in fact it can be found. Shoppers are doing
somersaults at ten bucks for a pound. Mince was poor
man's tucker once as the bank it wouldn't break, But
(33:59):
now she's theird dollars where once was fill at steak
lamb is up there too, and no one's happier than
me for hitting a person in the wallet is how
you make a blind man see. It's called supply and demand.
The concepts tried and true, and I don't think urbanites
(34:19):
grasp it as well as rural people do. Our livelihoods
depend on it, and right now there's a boost for
the khos in. The carbon forests are coming home to roost.
We won't say that we told you so, especially because
we did a perfect recipe for oblivion. Two point six
(34:41):
million stop units. We have slid save the world with
carbon forests. The wombles they did bleat this bugger all
point and breathing. If you can't afford to eat, if
people reckon prices are high, I predict they'll only climb.
And if people are searching for reasons, then I suggest
(35:02):
it now's the time to be fair. The horse has
bolted as the damage has been done, the leg ups
and incentives and the stories that were spun. Every pastoral
farmer that's sold to carbon trees is another nail in
our coffin from polluters over seas, limiting our food production.
(35:24):
Is far from sound advice. The lack of that production
hence the increase in the price. So a toast to
our remaining farmers is what I wish to do. The
best and most efficient in the world, a fact we
know is true. They deserve our total backing and our respect.
They do command. It's them that should reap the rewards
(35:48):
the reality of supply and demand. Don't blame them for
the cost of food. If the price it makes you choke,
blame it on the carbon cuddlers, the ideologists and the woke.
They're away with the bloody fairies, unaccountable and aloof they're
the buggest to lynch when your tucker bull hits the roof.
(36:10):
And that's my take on a Jamie, and I think
we all need to wake up to the fact that
we're the best producers of the best tucker in the
world and we need to preserve the production of it.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
So that's me, Graham Williams. Lovely work. Looking forward to
catching up with you at the Poverty A and P Show,
the best Little am P Show in the country mid October.
Speaker 7 (36:29):
Good on you, Jamie, we'll see you then.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
The Best of the Country with Rubbobank choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Rabobank, Graham Williams wrapping the Best of the Country. Good morning,
my name's Jamie McKay. I hope you enjoyed this week's offering.
We'll catch you back, same time, same place next Saturday morning.
Of course, the Best of the Country is the best
bits of our weekday show twelve to one, and it's
(36:59):
brought to you by Rabobank. That I mentioned that, Thank
you Rabobank. Really appreciate it. You're keeping me off the
streets right.
Speaker 8 (37:07):
That's me.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
I'm out of here. Great weekend of footy coming up,
not only the All Blacks and Buenos Aires, but of
course that second Wallaby's Spring Box test at Cape Town
Sea Level. Really looking forward to that one. I'm going
to leave you with early Beg's and I'll be back,
same time, same place, next Saturday morning.
Speaker 8 (37:26):
You while's lives live to love somebody, to love somebody.
We love you.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
It's my breath.
Speaker 8 (38:03):
I see your basicasion. I've known my friend Ma. You
ain't got to.
Speaker 4 (38:12):
Be so lad?
Speaker 7 (38:15):
Can I be man?
Speaker 4 (38:18):
So so? So?
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Have a man?
Speaker 8 (38:24):
Can't you see what I am? How can I.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
Read for you.
Speaker 8 (38:32):
But what good doesn't do with my God.
Speaker 6 (38:38):
Being God Man?
Speaker 2 (38:42):
You don't know.
Speaker 8 (38:43):
While it is life, you don't know. While it is
life to love somebody, to love somebody the way I
love you, I don't know why it's sad baby. You
(39:07):
don't know while it's last.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
To love somebody, to love somebody the way.
Speaker 8 (39:17):
I love you, turn down.
Speaker 7 (39:23):
You don't know.
Speaker 8 (39:24):
While it's sad, you don't know why it's life, nob
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