January 31, 2025 • 39 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Damien O'Connor, Michael Every, Shane Jones, and Jane Smith.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Number in at time?
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Get I in Good Morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Going a bit country this morning with Glenn Campbell, one
of my favorite country artists. Grammys are on Monday. He
won ten of them during a very lengthy career. Someone
who's had a lengthy career in politics. But how much
(01:06):
longer will he last? It's an interesting question. Damian O'Connor,
former agg and Trade Minister. We get his take on
Trump trade and tariffs, amongst other things. Two part interview
keynote interview this week with Michael Every Rabobanks, Singapore based
global strategist. We're talking about these tariffs. Is it just bluster.
What could be some good outcomes for New Zealand from
(01:29):
a Trump presidency and how does twenty twenty five play
out for the New Zealand economy as a food producing nation.
We're going to chat to He's my favorite politician these days,
Martua Shane Jones, the Prince of the province is the
minister of digging it up and damning it up. He
got onto the front foot well and truly on Thursday's
(01:51):
show and Jane Smith, North Otago farmer, an award winning environmentalist.
It's all on the Best of the Country as we
go country on your Saturday morning thanks to Rabobank.
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The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
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Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Okay, Damien, thank you for some of your time. Put
on your trade hat because you've got a lot of
experiences I said in that area. What do you make
of Trump's talk about tariffs? How's that going to affect
us here in New Zealand? Because the US, Damien is
now our biggest market for red meat. It has overtaken China.
Speaker 6 (02:38):
It's always been a very big market for our manufactured beef.
Which is about fifty percent of our our market. So, look,
it's going to affect us, and we're not quite sure
how will when. And there's a lot of uncertainty around
Trump's presidency. I think every day I certainly have reason
to be more concerned. I think that most of the
world does. We don't know what carais imposed upon countries.
(03:04):
You know, sending stuff to the US will mean if
it stops, will make some of those experts own economic
people will shift to other markets. What does that do
to international prices in volumes? No one quite knows. So
it's a very uncertain time for anyone connected to the US.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
He seems to want, at this very early stage of
his presidency to want to slap trffs on people who
are annoying them, Like hasn't he just put one on
Columbia or something because they wouldn't let a plane of
deportees land.
Speaker 6 (03:36):
Well, you know, it's almost an hour by our reactionary
approach to governance of you know, the biggest economy in
the world, and that's that uncertainty creates a lot of
chaos around not just world markets, but you know, people
are trying to plan forward with not only in the
primary sectors, that any manufacturing, anything that is traded around
(03:58):
the world will be interruption in some way by uncertainty
or indeed by direct impacts of tariffs.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
You know Winston, well, you've been in politics and in
parliament with them for many, many many years, because you
started back in the nineteen nineties. Is he going to
be a bit of an ace in our hand here
when it comes to dealing with the Americans because he
has been traditionally very pro America.
Speaker 6 (04:24):
Well, it might be a joker that we need rather
than ace when it comes to playing cards with Donald Trump.
But I think you know, Winston has the experience, he
has connections with the US. You know, we can just
do our best, and I'm sure that Winston will in
trying to minimize any impact that New Zealand will suffer
from the intervention on trade. And it might just not
(04:48):
just be tariffs. It could be other nonter barriers that
affect us in some ways, so uncertain times, I'm sure
Winston will do his best on behalf of our country.
Hard to know what that might mean in the long term.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
How you realize you and Trump have got something in
common and you won't like this you've both made controversial
statements about Gaza. Trump wants to empty the place out.
You controversially last year, I think, retweeted something about Gaza
got you into a bit of hot water.
Speaker 6 (05:19):
It was a statement from a US retired general, and
you know, look to have been many statements made on Gaza.
By stand by all, mind that it's a very worrying
time for international human rights, for the rule of law,
for the protection of people who can otherwise just be
totally exterminated through a genocide where there's no controls, no
(05:45):
un intervention, no ability to take people to account. So
it's a very very worrying and disturbing time for many
things across the globe, and the US has been at
the hardened center of many of those things. And hopefully
lor come right and we'll see some more law and order,
some more trade order, in some consistency across the globe.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Are you happy that Shane Jones, the Minister of digging
it up and damning it up, is going to dig
up quite a bit of your home patch? Drill, baby, drill.
There's another Trump comparison.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
I think yeah, the comparisons aren't really helpful. I think
it does scare people in many ways. I think, you know,
we do need to have mining, but responsible mining for
the things that we need. And whether you know, high
quality coal for coking purposes is necessary and as continues
on the West Coast, low value coal for thermal purposes
(06:41):
maybe not as as necessary and maybe there are better options,
which is, you know what the world is seeking at
the moment, and so we have to be part of
the international movement. As you say, the UK by storms,
we will see more of these climatic effects, particularly in
primary production, and I think we can ignore that and
just carry on blindly. Then you know we're kidding ourselves
(07:04):
in our international reputation will go astray and be destroyed.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Did you guys in the Labor government get it so
badly wrong? And you probably did. When it came to coal,
the fact that we were importing coal from Indonesia, that
was fascical.
Speaker 6 (07:20):
That coal had been imported for my recollection ten to
fifteen years as a core part of our energy mix.
We were trying to move to more renewables. It wasn't
a government's decision. Was the decision actually of the part
privatized you know under John Key Electricity companies it was
there call to do that, not government's call.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Just Sander Ardurn her memoirs being released in June. Will
you be mentioned in glowing terms.
Speaker 6 (07:48):
I have no idea and no expectations at all. I was,
you know, I guess, a loyal minister and a cabinet there.
You know, took on quite a few challenges, I guess,
and COVID being the one that you know, we'd never
faced before. And you know, I think we did okay
as a country and made the right decisions. The other one, absolutely,
(08:10):
there's the thousands of people who are still alive today.
It wouldn't have been otherwise. And I have to say
I was proud to be part of a government. We
made the call on microplasmic bovas, which is a huge
benefit to the livestock industry in our economy across the country,
something that has been taken for granted by many people.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
Yeah, and now I'll give you credit there along with
the MPI did a good job there. Actually MPI is
doing a good job when you look at the outbreak
of the Avian flu and that we seem to be
on top of that. Long may it continue. Were you
a loyal servant to Jacinda or were you a hatchet
man and a henchman.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
No.
Speaker 6 (08:45):
I was always an honest, outspoken contributed to cabinet and
to her government. And you know, we did our very
best for New Zealand, and New Zealanders stand by all
those decisions. I'm sure we went perfect. We didn't get
every thing right, but we did it for the right reasons.
And that wasn't to privatize our public health system. It
wasn't to sell off their country to the wealthiest. These
(09:08):
are the kinds of things that we are starting to
see from the coalition government.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
Just d us all about kindness and empathy, and to
be fair, she is kind and empathetic. But was she
completely and on hindsight here, Damien, because the book's been published,
so she can't write nasty things about you now in hindsight,
was she hopelessly out of a depth? Should I don't know,
Grant Robertson or something taken on the job?
Speaker 6 (09:31):
Stally bizarre statement from you, Jamie. I think we've had
many people who have been Prime ministers. The one who
was a salesman in the US and was a chief
executive of an airline with a questionable kind of outcome.
You know, as may or may not hit the skills.
We'll see long term whether that leads to our country
in the right direction. Just in to had the skills
(09:54):
to bring people to the table, to get the best
information at the table, and to make the reasons for
the right decision. And that's more important than someone who
steps back and just lets the market determined where our
country will head in the future. And that's what we're
seeing at the moment.
Speaker 4 (10:15):
And that is where I left with Damian O'Connor, former
Minister of Agriculture and Trade. I think we agreed to disagree.
Good morning. My name's Jamie McKay. This is the best
of the country. It's brought to you by Rabobank. We're
growing a better New Zealand together. Paying tribute this morning
to Glenn Campbell. To Lake Glenn Campbell. He won ten Grammys.
The Grammys are on on Monday. This is one of
(10:37):
his most haunting melodies, Wichita Lineman. Of course, Wichitar has
been in the news this week after that tragic accident,
air accident, disaster if you want, in Washington, crashing into
the Potomac River. I walked across the bridge there not
more than three months ago. Up next on the Best
of the Country Michael Every on a Brighter Note, Singapore
(10:58):
based global stratum just two part interview keynote interviewed this
week my twoad, Shane Jones just to entertain you on
your Saturday morning and Jane Smith. It's the best of
the country. I need this Smulvey k.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Murty Don Lagray.
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The best of the country with Rubbo Bank, the bank
with local agri banking experts, passionate about the future of
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Speaker 1 (11:25):
Rubbo Bank.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
He is one of my favorite, if not my most
favorite guest here on the country. His name is Michael
Every He's a Singapore based although he's entire Land today
global strategist for Rabobank. Michael, I call you an alarmist.
I love your work, but are you alarmed at what's
happening out there at the moment? Or well Donald Trump
fix all.
Speaker 5 (11:48):
What a fantastic question to start with, Jamie. I think
there's a lot to be concerned about. And this is
a point where we're gone beyond the what ifs and
the maybes and the speculation and we have to start
really looking at the actuality of it. Because just overnight
(12:09):
again in our time zone. We've had Bessent, who is
going to be the new US Treasury Secretary, say that
he personally favors a universal US tariff going up to
as high as twenty percent, which would be an absolute
shock for the markets for it to happen, but going
up incrementally at two point five percentage points every month
to give people time to adjust, and Trump himself saying well,
(12:32):
key sectors like farmer metals, semiconductors, those are going to
be tariffed. Now that may be compatible with what bess said,
but in either case, we are looking at a very
very different structure to the US economy and therefore to
the global economy. And this really does appear to be
something they're serious about and not just talking about it.
(12:53):
And as you know, I've been saying the same thing
for years, and I think here we are finally the.
Speaker 4 (13:00):
World becomes more nationalistic and protectionist, as free trade effectively
now a thing of the past.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
Yes, and though there will still be lots of international trade,
there will still be lots of goods and services that
need to flow across borders. What will change dramatically if
America does what it says is going to do is
the overall architecture of the global economy, because most people
don't understand that while country A trades with country B.
(13:30):
That's for example, New Zealand grows food and sells it
to a country in Asia. When you sell that food,
you sell it in US dollars, and you do that
because the entire global system is based on the fact
that America runs a big deficit with the rest of
the world, which is where those dollars come from. People
don't understand this. It's very simple and very complex at
(13:51):
the same time. But the simple part is all the
dollars come from America because they end up buying more
than they sell, and that's the net inflow. They don't
want to do that anymore in the same way that
New Zealand wouldn't want to and many other countries wouldn't
want to. But if they don't, that dollar flow will
dry up, and as a result, trade will have to
be reordered, restructured quite aggressively and very disruptively, or all
(14:14):
the way around the world. That will still mean international trade,
but it won't look the way that it used to.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
So you don't buy into the argument that part of
this tariff talk is just bluster.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
No, not at all. I think that people saying that
are blustering because they don't understand how the world's system
really works, and if they do, they're too afraid to
confront it. It was, as I said, it's all predicated
on the permanent concept that America will always run a
trade deficit. Why should they? Why should America always run
a trade deficit with everybody else? It's like, I mean,
(14:46):
they get big benefits from it. Don't get me wrong,
there are upsides to it. But it's like someone saying, right,
you're going to get free fast food every day for
the rest of your life, that you have to eat
all of it. So I'm going to give you like
a super sized fast food meal for breakfast and valunch
and for dinner, and you never have to cook again.
You never have to go shopping again, but you've got
to eat that every day forever. On one hand, you
(15:07):
can say yummy, yummy, and just like keep, you know,
putting on larger and larger stretch pants. And on the
other you might thinking, is this really good for me?
Is this acually what I want in the long run?
I mean, it's satisfying in one respect, everyone's happy. It
keeps the whole system going. But really, I don't know
if this is in my long run health and whether
you like it or not, and many people don't. I
get that Trump is turning around and in his own way,
(15:29):
trying to basically say America is going to go on
some form of diet and start eating protein shakes instead
of fast food, and the entire system, which is predicated
on America only ever just needed junk food forever, is wobbling.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
Well, Trump's gone off the junk food himself. He's on
a diet. He's lost twenty or thirty pounds, so I hear. Look.
Just a final question and part one of the two
part interview, Michael, every look into your crystal ball. What
do you think? How do the next four years play
out under Trump?
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Oh, it's going to be extremely volatile in terms of markets.
We've already seen that. And that's not just because of
his signature style. It's because the concept of what he's
trying to push through, as I said, is not understood
by enough people. But as they start to grasp what
actually is happening, and it starts to actually happen, and
trade actually has to start shifting all around the world. Yeah,
(16:20):
there will be absolute panic. I mean we've seen a
lot of that in markets already and we haven't seen
anything yet.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
Michael Every out of Singapore, Singapore based global strategists for Rabobank.
We will take a break on the other side of it.
We'll look at some of the good things maybe that
could come out of a Trump presidency, the.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
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Speaker 4 (16:47):
Welcome back to the country. Part too ever. Interview with
Michael Every, Singapore based Global strategists for Rabobank. Okay, a
Trump presidency, We've got them for the next four years. Michael,
could good come out of a Trump presidency? And I'm
talking about world peace? How much of the Gaza deal
is due to Trump or the threat of Trump? And
(17:07):
can Trump scare the Bejesus as I like saying out
of Putin? Then maybe get a deal in Ukraine?
Speaker 5 (17:13):
Well potentially yes, to start with the Ukraine thing. Whether
or not that's the deal that Ukraine's completely happy with
and everyone's completely happy with is another question. But you know,
Trump already did make a difference in Gaza because that
deal was on the table for a very long time.
And to be blunt, and I'm trying not to be
party political here, but if you read the local press
from both sides, you will see that neither side actually
(17:36):
took Biden very seriously. They didn't believe it when he
waved a big stick because he very rarely used it.
Trump is taken seriously when he makes threats, and so
you know, he basically made it clear to both sides,
you are going to sign this deal, and as a result,
it was signed and it went through. Now he can't
use quite the same technique with Russia because they are
much bigger power than we're talking about in the midd least,
(17:58):
But the same concept of actually say right, I'm taken
seriously people are afraid of me can actually make a
big difference because being nice and polite and reasonable and
setting up working committees and et cetera, et cetera. You
know what, it doesn't get you very far with tough guys.
It's an unpleasant truth.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
Okay. Trump wants to drill, baby drill if he extracts
more oil, more energy from US soil, can he drive
down the price of oil on a global scale, and
will that force Putin's hand?
Speaker 5 (18:27):
Well, that's a good argument. I mean, that's also critical
to him bring down inflation in the US too. If
you look at it purely from a market perspective like
supply and demand and where firms would like to invest, etc.
The argument is probably no, because you know you're going
to tell them to pump more oil when the price
goes down. Therefore they're going to make less money doing it.
But and this is an argument I've been making for
(18:48):
a while, if you look at the legislation the US
has on the books and which I believe Trump is
already starting to use, he can basically declare a national
security emergency and force companies to do it because it's
good for the overall national security, it's good for the
overall national economy. At which point, you know, maybe they're
not making much money who eats barrel that they're pumping,
but everyone else benefits from it. If he's going to
(19:11):
go that route, and if he can get Saudi Arabia
to help him, and obviously there's a lot of charas
and sticks and will in cake cutting swords that need
to be used there Maybe just maybe he can do that,
and that could Yes, that could help.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
Will the American economy and therefore ultimately the world's economy
potentially flourish under Trump.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Well, look, that's the key question. This is such a
political issue that people who see the world one way
and those who don't like Trump will refuse to accept
that it's possible, and people who love Trump will say, well,
naturally there's going to be the case. Trying to be
purely objective, I would say that it could be a
complete car crash and everything could go completely wrong, or
it could be actually a really fantastic period of growth
(19:52):
for America at least and for others after a period
of adjustment, because, as I've spoken to you about many
times in the bar of Jamie, the entire global system,
just to repeat again, is predicated on America always spending
more than it earns, importing more than their exports, and
effectively eating junk food three meals a day. It doesn't
want to do that anymore, and the adjustment process for
(20:13):
that would force an adjustment process through everybody else. But
in the long run, it would make everybody else healthier
as well. It would do the model of everyone being
more self reliant, making things more at home if they
can where it's sufficient to do so. Looking at domestic
demand rather than worrying about what you can sell to
others first, so that you can have customers nearer hand
and less strain geopolitically on your balance sheet, etc. Is
(20:36):
not a bad one. So if everyone can manage to
copy that to some degree after that adjustments, generally we
could be better off. That doesn't mean everyone would be
because the countries who have been doing very well selling
that junk food would not be doing so well. So
I want to make it clear it's not a universal win.
Speaker 4 (20:53):
Well, twenty twenty five be a better year financially than
twenty twenty four, it would be difficult, especially here in
New Zealand, for it to be worse.
Speaker 5 (21:02):
Well who for? I mean, if we look at the
year so far I'm talking to you right now, where
we've just seen the stock markets around the world collapse
and you know, the tech bubble start to burst, potentially
because of a new cheapest chips Chinese AI. I think
it's not cheapest chips actually, and there are a lot
of questions about it, but that's a pretty bad start
for the year if you had all your savings in
(21:24):
the US stock market or in the NASDAC or in
the tech sector. So it really depends who you are
and how you've invested. But I do think there's a
possibility that we'll see lower interest rates going forward over
the year, which is a lot of relief for a
lot of people, and hopefully that can offset some of
the volatility we might see elsewhere.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Michael Avery with us from Rabobank Global Strategist. Let's just
finish on our usual positive note, Michael, how does this
play out for New Zealand in terms of being a
food producer in twenty twenty five? And I also want
to ask you. We've been talking all about Trump and America,
what about our biggest trading partner China.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Well, okay, let's start with the New Zealand angle. Obviously,
you guys make chips that you eat rather than chips
that you put in computers, and right now, as of
today when we're speaking, that looks like the much better choice,
even if people wouldn't have said it over the past
twelve months. So let's wait and see. But you know,
what goes up can often come down, right, and what
has gone down can come up. In terms of China,
(22:23):
they are very much one of the countries that would
potentially lose out badly from what Trump is trying to achieve.
But from a Key Wee perspective, I don't think it
actually makes that much difference because the market that you've
been trying to set into this, you know, this consumer
market for food is already one that China has been
making very clear it wants to try and bring on
shore as much as possible. They're completely transparent and have
(22:45):
been for years about the fact that they want to
import as little as possible and over time to domesticate
as much of their agri supply chain as they can.
So there's no change on that front. But where for
New Zealand there may be opportunity is as the global
order shifts around, as trade blocks break up and form,
as lines on maps are redrawn, and that really is happening.
(23:05):
If New Zealand plays its political cards right, it could
end up in the winner's circle where you're together with
a group of countries who are all large net food producers,
and that would give you the Whippan globally. But if
it plays its cards wrong and it tries to go
solo and things it can you know, play one side
off against the other. Yeah, things get could get very
very rocky. So New Zealand is going to have to
(23:26):
play a very very smart game going forward, as were
many others, you know, including Australia. I believe you can
do it, but it's certainly going to involve a little
bit more creative thinking than has been the case of
the past forty or the year.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Well, you've given me some hope. Michael Avery Global Stratea
is just out of Singapore for Rabobank. Always a pleasure
to have you on the show.
Speaker 5 (23:44):
Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
for the huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Rabobank nuff Gavista.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
Can I am good morning New Zealan and this is
the best of the country. I'm Jamie Mackay. The show's
brought to you each and every Saturday morning here on
News Talks. He'd be by Rabobank. Were growing a better
New Zealand together and playing some great Glenn Campbell songs.
Up next. I guess it was my favorite interview of
the week. Martua Shane Jones, Prince of the province is
(24:19):
the minister of digging it up and damming it up,
getting on the front foot and taking it to woke banks,
limiting the productive sector. Of course, green MPs were in
his sights as well as his former leader, Jasindar Ardin.
He didn't spare her. The rod Jane Smith North Otago
farmer also waded into the woke banks. We talked about
(24:40):
selling pamu and whether self shedding sheep will render the
strong wool industry redundant. I hope not. I love the
sheep industry. I used to be a sheep farmer in
a past life, now talking about sheep farming. National Lamb Day.
Rabobanks proud to be the newest major sponsor of this
wonderful event that's happening on February the fifteenth. The annual
(25:01):
celebration on is New Zealand's heritage of lamb production, which
saw New Zealand's first shipment of frozen lamb and other
frozen stuff leave Port Charmers on February the fifteenth, eighteen
eighty two. The twenty twenty five campaign will be a
vibrant celebration with the range of activities planned. So Kiwi's
nationwide can join in, and as I said last week,
(25:25):
I hope the supermarkets join an special LAMB so that
Joe average punter can get out and sample some of
our national delicacy. Up next is the national delicacy. A
lot of people don't think so. The Prince of the Provinces,
Shane Jones, the.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
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Speaker 1 (25:51):
Robobank.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Well, this was going to be an exclusive for the country,
an interview that was sent up ten days ago. But
as usual, the food chain takes pressvidence and my lunch
was cut by Mike Hosking this morning. But I've got
to line up in the queue and here I am
Shane Jones to kick off the country. Shane, you have
got a big mining announcement coming up tomorrow, but I
want to firstly carry on from where you left off
(26:15):
with Mike Hosking this morning on woke banks debanking some
fossil fuel companies. I think it's the thin end end
of the wedge. Farmers are next.
Speaker 7 (26:25):
Oh, look, these are alien, foreign concepts imposed upon our
farming community by directors executives in the banking industry. They
are inflicting their luxury beliefs on God fearing kiwis trying
to run honest businesses. They live in sustainability units. They
(26:48):
seem to conceive of all these ideas through un connections
inversely related to our economic prospects. They've got to be
called out. In my view, they should all be sacked.
The sooner that these sustainability units are dismissed from the banks,
the better the prospects for regional New Zealand without a
(27:08):
guts full of these low riddled virtue signaling people who
have no accountability. What citizen mandated them to dry companies
such as coal mining industries to bankruptcy?
Speaker 4 (27:21):
Well, what are you going to do about it? You're
in power.
Speaker 7 (27:25):
Well, the first thing that we're doing in New Zealand
first is proceeding with a private members bill and hopefully
I'll hie and win the hearts and minds of my
colleagues over. Every bank in New Zealand must operate within
the confines of a banking license. Those licenses should give
no scope for virtue signaling social engineering from banks to
(27:49):
change the economic fortunes of families and firms alike. It
is wrong and in my view, they have no authority
to distore or indeed molest our industries in regional New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Well, I note that when you were talking to Husking
this morning, the issue was raised of maybe Kiwibank taking
a different perspective on this, but even Kiwibank is railing
against funding some of these companies.
Speaker 7 (28:18):
Well, I have received a message from the chief executive officer,
who our regard as a very formidable executive, asking me
to call him. And all I'm going to say to
the CEO is my staff took the information off the website. Now,
perhaps the website has been misconstrued by my staff, but
(28:41):
this is a great opportunity for Kiwibank to continue to
bank industries in New Zealand that create jobs and generate
export revenue. We don't need to swallow the climate cultism
coming from the United Nations. We need to generate economic
surplus every hour, every day, every week. And Kiwibank is
(29:03):
owned by the Crown New Zealand First would certainly have
stood back from any capital rays to expand Qevy Bank
if we had been told that they were going to
use that capital raise to drive legitimate businesses such as
coal mining, mining in general farmers out of existence in
(29:24):
order to meet these illusory targets to change the weather
in Mongolia. It's wrong, it's alien, and it's been driven
by these dangerous influences such as these idiots that comprise
the Green Party.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Well will come back to the Mexican standoff if we
get time. Look as wokeness now as we know it
under threat from Trumpism, because you know, you look at
Jacinda Trudeau, Enlightenment and kindness is almost so twenty twenty
now has the world changed.
Speaker 7 (29:58):
The world is a far more or robust, a far
more dynamic place than the juvenile, shallow, naive approach that
Jacinda and others talk that left New Zealand an estate
of financial penury. I think it's quite obnoxious the way
(30:19):
in which to Sinda is parading around with a movie
that she was secretly making, most imposing COVID regulations upon
every key family. No one knew that everything she did
she was doing it for a camera that her and
her people knew would one day be exploited to make
a movie about her life. That's why she can never
(30:41):
come back to New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (30:42):
Well, we've got you and Winston to blame for that.
Speaker 7 (30:45):
No, you don't. We were thrown out of politics in
twenty twenty, and the COVID madness actually happened when all
your farmer's wives voted for her.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
I know, I'm going back to twenty seventeen, but.
Speaker 7 (30:58):
You can't hold us responsible for what happened in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
We were voted out.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
Well, Jacinda wouldn't have been there in the first place
if you'd stuck with Bill English. But anyhow, we're relitigating
history here.
Speaker 7 (31:10):
You're going backwards. You need to go forward.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
We need to go forwards. Well, so let's go forward
to tomorrow the big speech and why he obviously, and
why he it's going to be about mining. What are
you digging up and damming up? Now?
Speaker 7 (31:23):
Obviously the gold mine there exemplifies all of the skills,
the capacity, the machinery, the capital that shows this is
a valuable industry. These are well paying jobs. Naturally, I'm
going to uphold the importance of guard rails. I'll make
suitable references to Freddie the Frog. There'll be a bit
(31:48):
of a din, I suppose around the security fence from
these dope growing nowles who don't want capitalism, who don't
want our economy to grow on the basis of minerals.
But that's part of being in the democracy. And the
other thing I'm going to remind you see love this tomorrow.
We have our host of climate change oriented regulations that
(32:11):
represent headways. We cannot afford them. We run the risk
of driving industrialization for this indiscriminate climate regulatory approach, which
is why the Climate Change Commission is on thin ice.
The last chap is gone. Commissioners are that chap from
down the South Island. He's gone. Good riddance to him. Now.
(32:34):
Unless we concede and tighten up climate change regulations, the
public is going to reject them at the next election.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
How do you reckon? Ricardo Mendez March will be marching
in protest tomorrow while you make your speech at why
he will be another Megas that can stand off.
Speaker 7 (32:52):
I've got two words for him, Addie.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Also Migo, Shane Jones, adiosk thank you very much for
your time today on the country.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
The best of the country with Rubbo bag choose the
bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience,
grow with rubbobag.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
Jane Smith is a North Otago farmer, of course, former
winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards. Jane, I know
you didn't catch all of what Shane Jones had to say,
but do you like his general message.
Speaker 8 (33:20):
Laton Jamie, Oh, it's just music to my ears. He'll
be welcome at new Haven Farms anytime that year, Jamie,
and he gets away of saying what most of us
are thinking as well, and in terms of question in
their overseas own banks. I loved when I just caught
something this morning he said about, you know, the fact
that they're imposing their warped system of belief and called
(33:41):
them corporate undertakers. I just thought that was a quote
of the year. And I certainly, you know, we're seeing
that the climate change hysteria changing, and I hope our
egg companies are actually listening to that because they've gone
with a fly on that. And I loved how Shane
said earlier this morning. I heard him say that, you know,
the only riskers offending the luxury belo of directors in
woke executives and the fact that this falsehood is amversely
(34:05):
related to economic progress, which Jamie is the one thing that.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
We need in this country, absolutely, and we need the
productivity driven from the primary sector. Obviously he's getting stuck
into the banks who won't bank or are debanking fossil
fuel companies. But this, as I said to him, is
the thin end end of the wedge. You know, farming's
next in the line of sight if you want. We've
already had banks setting emissions targets and we have to
(34:30):
we have to rail against this chain.
Speaker 8 (34:32):
I mean, the wok is starting to choke, Jamie, and
really is because we are going broken. And you know,
you look at that zero net zero banking alliance that's
fallen a part of the seas, it's going to be
the same here. You see jpm organ and black Rock,
et cetera pulling out, and that's the weaponizing. The weather
is going to change, and you know that climate change
sort of trojan horse has been pulled apart. And actually
(34:54):
when they're outen it up, they'll see it's actually enough
hysteria and headlines and really to it. It's light on
fax and heaving on fiction, Jamie. So yeah, the tide
is turning.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
Okay, now you've taken time out of a very busy day.
You and Hubby Blair are selling rams at the moment, Jane,
are you selling self shedding rams? Because if you do,
you could do what was done I think yesterday or
the day before twenty four and a half grand. Is
this the way of the future. Is the wall industry
dead off the back of lifting wall prices?
Speaker 8 (35:28):
Oh, we're really proud of the wall that we produce,
really nice, well sought after pairing of wall, jamiees. We
actually make money out of a wall. But you know, again,
it's just part of the dual purpose scenario. So our
sheep mead wall here at six hundred meters above sea level,
got a long cold autumn, winter and spring, and you know,
we take the approach that if we're going to produce wall,
(35:49):
we do the very best job of it possible. So
and I guess you know all those other factors that
can go into what fifty years of producing sheep here,
so mel drench survival traits a whole lot of things.
So to me, it's a changing breeds simply to save
sharing costs makes no sense at all.
Speaker 4 (36:06):
But each to their own, Jamie, Jane, we haven't got
a great line, so I need to wrap this, but
I've got a couple of questions to finish off for you. Parmu.
Speaker 8 (36:13):
Should we sell it, Jamie, like any crown owner, I said,
it should look they should be looking at the core
principles about why they own it. So Parmu should not
be immune to this. And you know again the government
have shone consistently failed to understand farming anyway and implement
the right policies infect Parmu. You know again, they have
been very righteous perpetrator of climate hysteria themselves. So I
(36:37):
think we need to be looking at why dev textpays.
We were only those farms. The only thing that would
consume me is who would buy them mega units now?
And it would really consume me. But maybe some form
of getting young farmers in with some overseas investment as well, possibly, Jamie, it.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
Needs to be looked at.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
Absolutely. Will you be buying just Sender's book or going
to her movie?
Speaker 8 (36:58):
None of the above? Neither are above, Jamie. I think
the world already has enough socialist handbooks, and I know
how this one finishes. It finishes with the author saying
she doesn't have enough. Few on the tank buggers us
overseas and leaves us with what one hundred and four
billion dollars a debt, Jamie, So not a great ending
and it won't be on my shelf any Day's.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Thing The best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the
bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients, Ravo.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Bank, Jane Smith, North Otago farmer rapping the best of
the country. Good morning, My name's Jamie McKay. The show
is brought to you each and every Saturday here on
News Talk s'd be by Rabobank. We're growing a better
New Zealand together and Rabobank is proud to be a
major sponsor of National LAMB Day coming up on February fifteen. Well,
(37:48):
Jane's not going to watch Jacinda's documentary or read a book,
but I thought I would pay tribute to our former
PM with a song from Glenn Campbell, winner of ten Grammys.
Catch your back, same time, same place, next Saturday morning
to see.
Speaker 7 (38:06):
Bending fire kindness and you look.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
The blindness narrow minded people on the narrow minded street.
Speaker 8 (38:28):
Don't walk around the down and now.
Speaker 4 (38:32):
Lit the helping hands instead of out.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
And the kindness that you show every day will.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Have the one along their ways.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Cry kindness, get your kindness, it shines.
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Fine for everyone to see.
Speaker 4 (39:00):
And the fire hostile kindness.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
Then you Loo of the mines very minded people over
the narrow bias. It's factor pria hostel kind of get
on show in kind district, but the China like cor
as they want to sing. And then the fire kindness.
(39:29):
Then you Obo of the finest narrow minded people over
the narrow minded street
The best of the country with Robbobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the Bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rubbobank in the city. Never be in my.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Hogget But the job demands that you made your plans
and all your big chance is gone.
Speaker 4 (00:26):
You in the hill.
Speaker 5 (00:28):
You wear everyone's bills and they tell you that you're.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
In the bank.
Speaker 6 (00:36):
Number in at time?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Is that your real.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Country?
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Get I in Good Morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Going a bit country this morning with Glenn Campbell, one
of my favorite country artists. Grammys are on Monday. He
won ten of them during a very lengthy career. Someone
who's had a lengthy career in politics. But how much
(01:06):
longer will he last? It's an interesting question. Damian O'Connor,
former agg and Trade Minister. We get his take on
Trump trade and tariffs, amongst other things. Two part interview
keynote interview this week with Michael Every Rabobanks, Singapore based
global strategist. We're talking about these tariffs. Is it just bluster.
What could be some good outcomes for New Zealand from
(01:29):
a Trump presidency and how does twenty twenty five play
out for the New Zealand economy as a food producing nation.
We're going to chat to He's my favorite politician these days,
Martua Shane Jones, the Prince of the province is the
minister of digging it up and damning it up. He
got onto the front foot well and truly on Thursday's
(01:51):
show and Jane Smith, North Otago farmer, an award winning environmentalist.
It's all on the Best of the Country as we
go country on your Saturday morning thanks to Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Okay, Damien, thank you for some of your time. Put
on your trade hat because you've got a lot of
experiences I said in that area. What do you make
of Trump's talk about tariffs? How's that going to affect
us here in New Zealand? Because the US, Damien is
now our biggest market for red meat. It has overtaken China.
Speaker 6 (02:38):
It's always been a very big market for our manufactured beef.
Which is about fifty percent of our our market. So, look,
it's going to affect us, and we're not quite sure
how will when. And there's a lot of uncertainty around
Trump's presidency. I think every day I certainly have reason
to be more concerned. I think that most of the
world does. We don't know what carais imposed upon countries.
(03:04):
You know, sending stuff to the US will mean if
it stops, will make some of those experts own economic
people will shift to other markets. What does that do
to international prices in volumes? No one quite knows. So
it's a very uncertain time for anyone connected to the US.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
He seems to want, at this very early stage of
his presidency to want to slap trffs on people who
are annoying them, Like hasn't he just put one on
Columbia or something because they wouldn't let a plane of
deportees land.
Speaker 6 (03:36):
Well, you know, it's almost an hour by our reactionary
approach to governance of you know, the biggest economy in
the world, and that's that uncertainty creates a lot of
chaos around not just world markets, but you know, people
are trying to plan forward with not only in the
primary sectors, that any manufacturing, anything that is traded around
(03:58):
the world will be interruption in some way by uncertainty
or indeed by direct impacts of tariffs.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
You know Winston, well, you've been in politics and in
parliament with them for many, many many years, because you
started back in the nineteen nineties. Is he going to
be a bit of an ace in our hand here
when it comes to dealing with the Americans because he
has been traditionally very pro America.
Speaker 6 (04:24):
Well, it might be a joker that we need rather
than ace when it comes to playing cards with Donald Trump.
But I think you know, Winston has the experience, he
has connections with the US. You know, we can just
do our best, and I'm sure that Winston will in
trying to minimize any impact that New Zealand will suffer
from the intervention on trade. And it might just not
(04:48):
just be tariffs. It could be other nonter barriers that
affect us in some ways, so uncertain times, I'm sure
Winston will do his best on behalf of our country.
Hard to know what that might mean in the long term.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
How you realize you and Trump have got something in
common and you won't like this you've both made controversial
statements about Gaza. Trump wants to empty the place out.
You controversially last year, I think, retweeted something about Gaza
got you into a bit of hot water.
Speaker 6 (05:19):
It was a statement from a US retired general, and
you know, look to have been many statements made on Gaza.
By stand by all, mind that it's a very worrying
time for international human rights, for the rule of law,
for the protection of people who can otherwise just be
totally exterminated through a genocide where there's no controls, no
(05:45):
un intervention, no ability to take people to account. So
it's a very very worrying and disturbing time for many
things across the globe, and the US has been at
the hardened center of many of those things. And hopefully
lor come right and we'll see some more law and order,
some more trade order, in some consistency across the globe.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Are you happy that Shane Jones, the Minister of digging
it up and damning it up, is going to dig
up quite a bit of your home patch? Drill, baby, drill.
There's another Trump comparison.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
I think yeah, the comparisons aren't really helpful. I think
it does scare people in many ways. I think, you know,
we do need to have mining, but responsible mining for
the things that we need. And whether you know, high
quality coal for coking purposes is necessary and as continues
on the West Coast, low value coal for thermal purposes
(06:41):
maybe not as as necessary and maybe there are better options,
which is, you know what the world is seeking at
the moment, and so we have to be part of
the international movement. As you say, the UK by storms,
we will see more of these climatic effects, particularly in
primary production, and I think we can ignore that and
just carry on blindly. Then you know we're kidding ourselves
(07:04):
in our international reputation will go astray and be destroyed.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Did you guys in the Labor government get it so
badly wrong? And you probably did. When it came to coal,
the fact that we were importing coal from Indonesia, that
was fascical.
Speaker 6 (07:20):
That coal had been imported for my recollection ten to
fifteen years as a core part of our energy mix.
We were trying to move to more renewables. It wasn't
a government's decision. Was the decision actually of the part
privatized you know under John Key Electricity companies it was
there call to do that, not government's call.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Just Sander Ardurn her memoirs being released in June. Will
you be mentioned in glowing terms.
Speaker 6 (07:48):
I have no idea and no expectations at all. I was,
you know, I guess, a loyal minister and a cabinet there.
You know, took on quite a few challenges, I guess,
and COVID being the one that you know, we'd never
faced before. And you know, I think we did okay
as a country and made the right decisions. The other one, absolutely,
(08:10):
there's the thousands of people who are still alive today.
It wouldn't have been otherwise. And I have to say
I was proud to be part of a government. We
made the call on microplasmic bovas, which is a huge
benefit to the livestock industry in our economy across the country,
something that has been taken for granted by many people.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
Yeah, and now I'll give you credit there along with
the MPI did a good job there. Actually MPI is
doing a good job when you look at the outbreak
of the Avian flu and that we seem to be
on top of that. Long may it continue. Were you
a loyal servant to Jacinda or were you a hatchet
man and a henchman.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
No.
Speaker 6 (08:45):
I was always an honest, outspoken contributed to cabinet and
to her government. And you know, we did our very
best for New Zealand, and New Zealanders stand by all
those decisions. I'm sure we went perfect. We didn't get
every thing right, but we did it for the right reasons.
And that wasn't to privatize our public health system. It
wasn't to sell off their country to the wealthiest. These
(09:08):
are the kinds of things that we are starting to
see from the coalition government.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
Just d us all about kindness and empathy, and to
be fair, she is kind and empathetic. But was she
completely and on hindsight here, Damien, because the book's been published,
so she can't write nasty things about you now in hindsight,
was she hopelessly out of a depth? Should I don't know,
Grant Robertson or something taken on the job?
Speaker 6 (09:31):
Stally bizarre statement from you, Jamie. I think we've had
many people who have been Prime ministers. The one who
was a salesman in the US and was a chief
executive of an airline with a questionable kind of outcome.
You know, as may or may not hit the skills.
We'll see long term whether that leads to our country
in the right direction. Just in to had the skills
(09:54):
to bring people to the table, to get the best
information at the table, and to make the reasons for
the right decision. And that's more important than someone who
steps back and just lets the market determined where our
country will head in the future. And that's what we're
seeing at the moment.
Speaker 4 (10:15):
And that is where I left with Damian O'Connor, former
Minister of Agriculture and Trade. I think we agreed to disagree.
Good morning. My name's Jamie McKay. This is the best
of the country. It's brought to you by Rabobank. We're
growing a better New Zealand together. Paying tribute this morning
to Glenn Campbell. To Lake Glenn Campbell. He won ten Grammys.
The Grammys are on on Monday. This is one of
(10:37):
his most haunting melodies, Wichita Lineman. Of course, Wichitar has
been in the news this week after that tragic accident,
air accident, disaster if you want, in Washington, crashing into
the Potomac River. I walked across the bridge there not
more than three months ago. Up next on the Best
of the Country Michael Every on a Brighter Note, Singapore
(10:58):
based global stratum just two part interview keynote interviewed this
week my twoad, Shane Jones just to entertain you on
your Saturday morning and Jane Smith. It's the best of
the country. I need this Smulvey k.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Murty Don Lagray.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
The best of the country with Rubbo Bank, the bank
with local agri banking experts, passionate about the future of
rural communities.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Rubbo Bank.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
He is one of my favorite, if not my most
favorite guest here on the country. His name is Michael
Every He's a Singapore based although he's entire Land today
global strategist for Rabobank. Michael, I call you an alarmist.
I love your work, but are you alarmed at what's
happening out there at the moment? Or well Donald Trump
fix all.
Speaker 5 (11:48):
What a fantastic question to start with, Jamie. I think
there's a lot to be concerned about. And this is
a point where we're gone beyond the what ifs and
the maybes and the speculation and we have to start
really looking at the actuality of it. Because just overnight
(12:09):
again in our time zone. We've had Bessent, who is
going to be the new US Treasury Secretary, say that
he personally favors a universal US tariff going up to
as high as twenty percent, which would be an absolute
shock for the markets for it to happen, but going
up incrementally at two point five percentage points every month
to give people time to adjust, and Trump himself saying well,
(12:32):
key sectors like farmer metals, semiconductors, those are going to
be tariffed. Now that may be compatible with what bess said,
but in either case, we are looking at a very
very different structure to the US economy and therefore to
the global economy. And this really does appear to be
something they're serious about and not just talking about it.
(12:53):
And as you know, I've been saying the same thing
for years, and I think here we are finally the.
Speaker 4 (13:00):
World becomes more nationalistic and protectionist, as free trade effectively
now a thing of the past.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
Yes, and though there will still be lots of international trade,
there will still be lots of goods and services that
need to flow across borders. What will change dramatically if
America does what it says is going to do is
the overall architecture of the global economy, because most people
don't understand that while country A trades with country B.
(13:30):
That's for example, New Zealand grows food and sells it
to a country in Asia. When you sell that food,
you sell it in US dollars, and you do that
because the entire global system is based on the fact
that America runs a big deficit with the rest of
the world, which is where those dollars come from. People
don't understand this. It's very simple and very complex at
(13:51):
the same time. But the simple part is all the
dollars come from America because they end up buying more
than they sell, and that's the net inflow. They don't
want to do that anymore in the same way that
New Zealand wouldn't want to and many other countries wouldn't
want to. But if they don't, that dollar flow will
dry up, and as a result, trade will have to
be reordered, restructured quite aggressively and very disruptively, or all
(14:14):
the way around the world. That will still mean international trade,
but it won't look the way that it used to.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
So you don't buy into the argument that part of
this tariff talk is just bluster.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
No, not at all. I think that people saying that
are blustering because they don't understand how the world's system
really works, and if they do, they're too afraid to
confront it. It was, as I said, it's all predicated
on the permanent concept that America will always run a
trade deficit. Why should they? Why should America always run
a trade deficit with everybody else? It's like, I mean,
(14:46):
they get big benefits from it. Don't get me wrong,
there are upsides to it. But it's like someone saying, right,
you're going to get free fast food every day for
the rest of your life, that you have to eat
all of it. So I'm going to give you like
a super sized fast food meal for breakfast and valunch
and for dinner, and you never have to cook again.
You never have to go shopping again, but you've got
to eat that every day forever. On one hand, you
(15:07):
can say yummy, yummy, and just like keep, you know,
putting on larger and larger stretch pants. And on the
other you might thinking, is this really good for me?
Is this acually what I want in the long run?
I mean, it's satisfying in one respect, everyone's happy. It
keeps the whole system going. But really, I don't know
if this is in my long run health and whether
you like it or not, and many people don't. I
get that Trump is turning around and in his own way,
(15:29):
trying to basically say America is going to go on
some form of diet and start eating protein shakes instead
of fast food, and the entire system, which is predicated
on America only ever just needed junk food forever, is wobbling.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
Well, Trump's gone off the junk food himself. He's on
a diet. He's lost twenty or thirty pounds, so I hear. Look.
Just a final question and part one of the two
part interview, Michael, every look into your crystal ball. What
do you think? How do the next four years play
out under Trump?
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Oh, it's going to be extremely volatile in terms of markets.
We've already seen that. And that's not just because of
his signature style. It's because the concept of what he's
trying to push through, as I said, is not understood
by enough people. But as they start to grasp what
actually is happening, and it starts to actually happen, and
trade actually has to start shifting all around the world. Yeah,
(16:20):
there will be absolute panic. I mean we've seen a
lot of that in markets already and we haven't seen
anything yet.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
Michael Every out of Singapore, Singapore based global strategists for Rabobank.
We will take a break on the other side of it.
We'll look at some of the good things maybe that
could come out of a Trump presidency, the.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Best of the country with Rubbobank.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Welcome back to the country. Part too ever. Interview with
Michael Every, Singapore based Global strategists for Rabobank. Okay, a
Trump presidency, We've got them for the next four years. Michael,
could good come out of a Trump presidency? And I'm
talking about world peace? How much of the Gaza deal
is due to Trump or the threat of Trump? And
(17:07):
can Trump scare the Bejesus as I like saying out
of Putin? Then maybe get a deal in Ukraine?
Speaker 5 (17:13):
Well potentially yes, to start with the Ukraine thing. Whether
or not that's the deal that Ukraine's completely happy with
and everyone's completely happy with is another question. But you know,
Trump already did make a difference in Gaza because that
deal was on the table for a very long time.
And to be blunt, and I'm trying not to be
party political here, but if you read the local press
from both sides, you will see that neither side actually
(17:36):
took Biden very seriously. They didn't believe it when he
waved a big stick because he very rarely used it.
Trump is taken seriously when he makes threats, and so
you know, he basically made it clear to both sides,
you are going to sign this deal, and as a result,
it was signed and it went through. Now he can't
use quite the same technique with Russia because they are
much bigger power than we're talking about in the midd least,
(17:58):
But the same concept of actually say right, I'm taken
seriously people are afraid of me can actually make a
big difference because being nice and polite and reasonable and
setting up working committees and et cetera, et cetera. You
know what, it doesn't get you very far with tough guys.
It's an unpleasant truth.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
Okay. Trump wants to drill, baby drill if he extracts
more oil, more energy from US soil, can he drive
down the price of oil on a global scale, and
will that force Putin's hand?
Speaker 5 (18:27):
Well, that's a good argument. I mean, that's also critical
to him bring down inflation in the US too. If
you look at it purely from a market perspective like
supply and demand and where firms would like to invest, etc.
The argument is probably no, because you know you're going
to tell them to pump more oil when the price
goes down. Therefore they're going to make less money doing it.
But and this is an argument I've been making for
(18:48):
a while, if you look at the legislation the US
has on the books and which I believe Trump is
already starting to use, he can basically declare a national
security emergency and force companies to do it because it's
good for the overall national security, it's good for the
overall national economy. At which point, you know, maybe they're
not making much money who eats barrel that they're pumping,
but everyone else benefits from it. If he's going to
(19:11):
go that route, and if he can get Saudi Arabia
to help him, and obviously there's a lot of charas
and sticks and will in cake cutting swords that need
to be used there Maybe just maybe he can do that,
and that could Yes, that could help.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
Will the American economy and therefore ultimately the world's economy
potentially flourish under Trump.
Speaker 5 (19:31):
Well, look, that's the key question. This is such a
political issue that people who see the world one way
and those who don't like Trump will refuse to accept
that it's possible, and people who love Trump will say, well,
naturally there's going to be the case. Trying to be
purely objective, I would say that it could be a
complete car crash and everything could go completely wrong, or
it could be actually a really fantastic period of growth
(19:52):
for America at least and for others after a period
of adjustment, because, as I've spoken to you about many
times in the bar of Jamie, the entire global system,
just to repeat again, is predicated on America always spending
more than it earns, importing more than their exports, and
effectively eating junk food three meals a day. It doesn't
want to do that anymore, and the adjustment process for
(20:13):
that would force an adjustment process through everybody else. But
in the long run, it would make everybody else healthier
as well. It would do the model of everyone being
more self reliant, making things more at home if they
can where it's sufficient to do so. Looking at domestic
demand rather than worrying about what you can sell to
others first, so that you can have customers nearer hand
and less strain geopolitically on your balance sheet, etc. Is
(20:36):
not a bad one. So if everyone can manage to
copy that to some degree after that adjustments, generally we
could be better off. That doesn't mean everyone would be
because the countries who have been doing very well selling
that junk food would not be doing so well. So
I want to make it clear it's not a universal win.
Speaker 4 (20:53):
Well, twenty twenty five be a better year financially than
twenty twenty four, it would be difficult, especially here in
New Zealand, for it to be worse.
Speaker 5 (21:02):
Well who for? I mean, if we look at the
year so far I'm talking to you right now, where
we've just seen the stock markets around the world collapse
and you know, the tech bubble start to burst, potentially
because of a new cheapest chips Chinese AI. I think
it's not cheapest chips actually, and there are a lot
of questions about it, but that's a pretty bad start
for the year if you had all your savings in
(21:24):
the US stock market or in the NASDAC or in
the tech sector. So it really depends who you are
and how you've invested. But I do think there's a
possibility that we'll see lower interest rates going forward over
the year, which is a lot of relief for a
lot of people, and hopefully that can offset some of
the volatility we might see elsewhere.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Michael Avery with us from Rabobank Global Strategist. Let's just
finish on our usual positive note, Michael, how does this
play out for New Zealand in terms of being a
food producer in twenty twenty five? And I also want
to ask you. We've been talking all about Trump and America,
what about our biggest trading partner China.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Well, okay, let's start with the New Zealand angle. Obviously,
you guys make chips that you eat rather than chips
that you put in computers, and right now, as of
today when we're speaking, that looks like the much better choice,
even if people wouldn't have said it over the past
twelve months. So let's wait and see. But you know,
what goes up can often come down, right, and what
has gone down can come up. In terms of China,
(22:23):
they are very much one of the countries that would
potentially lose out badly from what Trump is trying to achieve.
But from a Key Wee perspective, I don't think it
actually makes that much difference because the market that you've
been trying to set into this, you know, this consumer
market for food is already one that China has been
making very clear it wants to try and bring on
shore as much as possible. They're completely transparent and have
(22:45):
been for years about the fact that they want to
import as little as possible and over time to domesticate
as much of their agri supply chain as they can.
So there's no change on that front. But where for
New Zealand there may be opportunity is as the global
order shifts around, as trade blocks break up and form,
as lines on maps are redrawn, and that really is happening.
(23:05):
If New Zealand plays its political cards right, it could
end up in the winner's circle where you're together with
a group of countries who are all large net food producers,
and that would give you the Whippan globally. But if
it plays its cards wrong and it tries to go
solo and things it can you know, play one side
off against the other. Yeah, things get could get very
very rocky. So New Zealand is going to have to
(23:26):
play a very very smart game going forward, as were
many others, you know, including Australia. I believe you can
do it, but it's certainly going to involve a little
bit more creative thinking than has been the case of
the past forty or the year.
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Well, you've given me some hope. Michael Avery Global Stratea
is just out of Singapore for Rabobank. Always a pleasure
to have you on the show.
Speaker 5 (23:44):
Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
for the huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Rabobank nuff Gavista.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
Can I am good morning New Zealan and this is
the best of the country. I'm Jamie Mackay. The show's
brought to you each and every Saturday morning here on
News Talks. He'd be by Rabobank. Were growing a better
New Zealand together and playing some great Glenn Campbell songs.
Up next. I guess it was my favorite interview of
the week. Martua Shane Jones, Prince of the province is
(24:19):
the minister of digging it up and damming it up,
getting on the front foot and taking it to woke banks,
limiting the productive sector. Of course, green MPs were in
his sights as well as his former leader, Jasindar Ardin.
He didn't spare her. The rod Jane Smith North Otago
farmer also waded into the woke banks. We talked about
(24:40):
selling pamu and whether self shedding sheep will render the
strong wool industry redundant. I hope not. I love the
sheep industry. I used to be a sheep farmer in
a past life, now talking about sheep farming. National Lamb Day.
Rabobanks proud to be the newest major sponsor of this
wonderful event that's happening on February the fifteenth. The annual
(25:01):
celebration on is New Zealand's heritage of lamb production, which
saw New Zealand's first shipment of frozen lamb and other
frozen stuff leave Port Charmers on February the fifteenth, eighteen
eighty two. The twenty twenty five campaign will be a
vibrant celebration with the range of activities planned. So Kiwi's
nationwide can join in, and as I said last week,
(25:25):
I hope the supermarkets join an special LAMB so that
Joe average punter can get out and sample some of
our national delicacy. Up next is the national delicacy. A
lot of people don't think so. The Prince of the Provinces,
Shane Jones, the.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Best of the country with Robobank, the bank with local
agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
Robobank.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Well, this was going to be an exclusive for the country,
an interview that was sent up ten days ago. But
as usual, the food chain takes pressvidence and my lunch
was cut by Mike Hosking this morning. But I've got
to line up in the queue and here I am
Shane Jones to kick off the country. Shane, you have
got a big mining announcement coming up tomorrow, but I
want to firstly carry on from where you left off
(26:15):
with Mike Hosking this morning on woke banks debanking some
fossil fuel companies. I think it's the thin end end
of the wedge. Farmers are next.
Speaker 7 (26:25):
Oh, look, these are alien, foreign concepts imposed upon our
farming community by directors executives in the banking industry. They
are inflicting their luxury beliefs on God fearing kiwis trying
to run honest businesses. They live in sustainability units. They
(26:48):
seem to conceive of all these ideas through un connections
inversely related to our economic prospects. They've got to be
called out. In my view, they should all be sacked.
The sooner that these sustainability units are dismissed from the banks,
the better the prospects for regional New Zealand without a
(27:08):
guts full of these low riddled virtue signaling people who
have no accountability. What citizen mandated them to dry companies
such as coal mining industries to bankruptcy?
Speaker 4 (27:21):
Well, what are you going to do about it? You're
in power.
Speaker 7 (27:25):
Well, the first thing that we're doing in New Zealand
first is proceeding with a private members bill and hopefully
I'll hie and win the hearts and minds of my
colleagues over. Every bank in New Zealand must operate within
the confines of a banking license. Those licenses should give
no scope for virtue signaling social engineering from banks to
(27:49):
change the economic fortunes of families and firms alike. It
is wrong and in my view, they have no authority
to distore or indeed molest our industries in regional New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Well, I note that when you were talking to Husking
this morning, the issue was raised of maybe Kiwibank taking
a different perspective on this, but even Kiwibank is railing
against funding some of these companies.
Speaker 7 (28:18):
Well, I have received a message from the chief executive officer,
who our regard as a very formidable executive, asking me
to call him. And all I'm going to say to
the CEO is my staff took the information off the website. Now,
perhaps the website has been misconstrued by my staff, but
(28:41):
this is a great opportunity for Kiwibank to continue to
bank industries in New Zealand that create jobs and generate
export revenue. We don't need to swallow the climate cultism
coming from the United Nations. We need to generate economic
surplus every hour, every day, every week. And Kiwibank is
(29:03):
owned by the Crown New Zealand First would certainly have
stood back from any capital rays to expand Qevy Bank
if we had been told that they were going to
use that capital raise to drive legitimate businesses such as
coal mining, mining in general farmers out of existence in
(29:24):
order to meet these illusory targets to change the weather
in Mongolia. It's wrong, it's alien, and it's been driven
by these dangerous influences such as these idiots that comprise
the Green Party.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Well will come back to the Mexican standoff if we
get time. Look as wokeness now as we know it
under threat from Trumpism, because you know, you look at
Jacinda Trudeau, Enlightenment and kindness is almost so twenty twenty
now has the world changed.
Speaker 7 (29:58):
The world is a far more or robust, a far
more dynamic place than the juvenile, shallow, naive approach that
Jacinda and others talk that left New Zealand an estate
of financial penury. I think it's quite obnoxious the way
(30:19):
in which to Sinda is parading around with a movie
that she was secretly making, most imposing COVID regulations upon
every key family. No one knew that everything she did
she was doing it for a camera that her and
her people knew would one day be exploited to make
a movie about her life. That's why she can never
(30:41):
come back to New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (30:42):
Well, we've got you and Winston to blame for that.
Speaker 7 (30:45):
No, you don't. We were thrown out of politics in
twenty twenty, and the COVID madness actually happened when all
your farmer's wives voted for her.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
I know, I'm going back to twenty seventeen, but.
Speaker 7 (30:58):
You can't hold us responsible for what happened in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
We were voted out.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
Well, Jacinda wouldn't have been there in the first place
if you'd stuck with Bill English. But anyhow, we're relitigating
history here.
Speaker 7 (31:10):
You're going backwards. You need to go forward.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
We need to go forwards. Well, so let's go forward
to tomorrow the big speech and why he obviously, and
why he it's going to be about mining. What are
you digging up and damming up? Now?
Speaker 7 (31:23):
Obviously the gold mine there exemplifies all of the skills,
the capacity, the machinery, the capital that shows this is
a valuable industry. These are well paying jobs. Naturally, I'm
going to uphold the importance of guard rails. I'll make
suitable references to Freddie the Frog. There'll be a bit
(31:48):
of a din, I suppose around the security fence from
these dope growing nowles who don't want capitalism, who don't
want our economy to grow on the basis of minerals.
But that's part of being in the democracy. And the
other thing I'm going to remind you see love this tomorrow.
We have our host of climate change oriented regulations that
(32:11):
represent headways. We cannot afford them. We run the risk
of driving industrialization for this indiscriminate climate regulatory approach, which
is why the Climate Change Commission is on thin ice.
The last chap is gone. Commissioners are that chap from
down the South Island. He's gone. Good riddance to him. Now.
(32:34):
Unless we concede and tighten up climate change regulations, the
public is going to reject them at the next election.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
How do you reckon? Ricardo Mendez March will be marching
in protest tomorrow while you make your speech at why
he will be another Megas that can stand off.
Speaker 7 (32:52):
I've got two words for him, Addie.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Also Migo, Shane Jones, adiosk thank you very much for
your time today on the country.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
The best of the country with Rubbo bag choose the
bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience,
grow with rubbobag.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
Jane Smith is a North Otago farmer, of course, former
winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards. Jane, I know
you didn't catch all of what Shane Jones had to say,
but do you like his general message.
Speaker 8 (33:20):
Laton Jamie, Oh, it's just music to my ears. He'll
be welcome at new Haven Farms anytime that year, Jamie,
and he gets away of saying what most of us
are thinking as well, and in terms of question in
their overseas own banks. I loved when I just caught
something this morning he said about, you know, the fact
that they're imposing their warped system of belief and called
(33:41):
them corporate undertakers. I just thought that was a quote
of the year. And I certainly, you know, we're seeing
that the climate change hysteria changing, and I hope our
egg companies are actually listening to that because they've gone
with a fly on that. And I loved how Shane
said earlier this morning. I heard him say that, you know,
the only riskers offending the luxury belo of directors in
woke executives and the fact that this falsehood is amversely
(34:05):
related to economic progress, which Jamie is the one thing that.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
We need in this country, absolutely, and we need the
productivity driven from the primary sector. Obviously he's getting stuck
into the banks who won't bank or are debanking fossil
fuel companies. But this, as I said to him, is
the thin end end of the wedge. You know, farming's
next in the line of sight if you want. We've
already had banks setting emissions targets and we have to
(34:30):
we have to rail against this chain.
Speaker 8 (34:32):
I mean, the wok is starting to choke, Jamie, and
really is because we are going broken. And you know,
you look at that zero net zero banking alliance that's
fallen a part of the seas, it's going to be
the same here. You see jpm organ and black Rock,
et cetera pulling out, and that's the weaponizing. The weather
is going to change, and you know that climate change
sort of trojan horse has been pulled apart. And actually
(34:54):
when they're outen it up, they'll see it's actually enough
hysteria and headlines and really to it. It's light on
fax and heaving on fiction, Jamie. So yeah, the tide
is turning.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
Okay, now you've taken time out of a very busy day.
You and Hubby Blair are selling rams at the moment, Jane,
are you selling self shedding rams? Because if you do,
you could do what was done I think yesterday or
the day before twenty four and a half grand. Is
this the way of the future. Is the wall industry
dead off the back of lifting wall prices?
Speaker 8 (35:28):
Oh, we're really proud of the wall that we produce,
really nice, well sought after pairing of wall, jamiees. We
actually make money out of a wall. But you know, again,
it's just part of the dual purpose scenario. So our
sheep mead wall here at six hundred meters above sea level,
got a long cold autumn, winter and spring, and you know,
we take the approach that if we're going to produce wall,
(35:49):
we do the very best job of it possible. So
and I guess you know all those other factors that
can go into what fifty years of producing sheep here,
so mel drench survival traits a whole lot of things.
So to me, it's a changing breeds simply to save
sharing costs makes no sense at all.
Speaker 4 (36:06):
But each to their own, Jamie, Jane, we haven't got
a great line, so I need to wrap this, but
I've got a couple of questions to finish off for you. Parmu.
Speaker 8 (36:13):
Should we sell it, Jamie, like any crown owner, I said,
it should look they should be looking at the core
principles about why they own it. So Parmu should not
be immune to this. And you know again the government
have shone consistently failed to understand farming anyway and implement
the right policies infect Parmu. You know again, they have
been very righteous perpetrator of climate hysteria themselves. So I
(36:37):
think we need to be looking at why dev textpays.
We were only those farms. The only thing that would
consume me is who would buy them mega units now?
And it would really consume me. But maybe some form
of getting young farmers in with some overseas investment as well, possibly, Jamie, it.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
Needs to be looked at.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
Absolutely. Will you be buying just Sender's book or going
to her movie?
Speaker 8 (36:58):
None of the above? Neither are above, Jamie. I think
the world already has enough socialist handbooks, and I know
how this one finishes. It finishes with the author saying
she doesn't have enough. Few on the tank buggers us
overseas and leaves us with what one hundred and four
billion dollars a debt, Jamie, So not a great ending
and it won't be on my shelf any Day's.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Thing The best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the
bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients, Ravo.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Bank, Jane Smith, North Otago farmer rapping the best of
the country. Good morning, My name's Jamie McKay. The show
is brought to you each and every Saturday here on
News Talk s'd be by Rabobank. We're growing a better
New Zealand together and Rabobank is proud to be a
major sponsor of National LAMB Day coming up on February fifteen. Well,
(37:48):
Jane's not going to watch Jacinda's documentary or read a book,
but I thought I would pay tribute to our former
PM with a song from Glenn Campbell, winner of ten Grammys.
Catch your back, same time, same place, next Saturday morning
to see.
Speaker 7 (38:06):
Bending fire kindness and you look.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
The blindness narrow minded people on the narrow minded street.
Speaker 8 (38:28):
Don't walk around the down and now.
Speaker 4 (38:32):
Lit the helping hands instead of out.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
And the kindness that you show every day will.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Have the one along their ways.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Cry kindness, get your kindness, it shines.
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Fine for everyone to see.
Speaker 4 (39:00):
And the fire hostile kindness.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
Then you Loo of the mines very minded people over
the narrow bias. It's factor pria hostel kind of get
on show in kind district, but the China like cor
as they want to sing. And then the fire kindness.
(39:29):
Then you Obo of the finest narrow minded people over
the narrow minded street
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